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Comments (15)
Pam Sher
06 Jun 2022Thank you for such an informative and interesting article Chris. It has really helped me to understand the situation!
Robyn
06 Jun 2022Great article. Informative and very readable. Thank you.
Ivan
06 Jun 2022No comment on sympathetic African Nations, incl. BRICS partners.
These are Nations that detest what is/has happened to Palestinians. Have a longstanding association with Russia and China. Lament the Western interventions and unlawful invasions of Libya, Syria, Ethiopia, Soudan, Iraq, the Baltic States etc. The historical economic grip of European Countries on the African continent is a painful reminder of the injustices of these States, with the meddling of the US and Israel on the African continent becoming all to clear of late. Thankfully, the UN and its proxies are being scrutinised with a healthy dose of scepticism., although it has cost Africa the lives of four of its more outspoken leaders in the past 2 years.
Hakeem the Navigator
07 Jun 2022@Ivan. Your insight and observation is superb. The writer chose to ignore these African Nations’ stance and the necessary scrutiny of the UN. There is also the issue of the slight shift within the NATO/EU signalled by the concessions to the demands by Hungary and Turkey on the one side.
Whitefoord
06 Jun 2022Interesting and informative. However, “When the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991, that number had reduced to a single gap. Since then, with various incursions by Russia into areas such as Kazakhstan, Georgia and Crimea, Putin has gradually been filling those gaps …” What gaps? You have just said the “number had reduced to a single gap”.
Am I missing something?
Chris Gilmour
06 Jun 2022No not at all. I was careful to refer to Russia. Russia has made these incursions from the early 1990s onwards. I am thinking Chechnya (two wars these about a decade apart) and of course more recently South Ossetia in Georgia and now Ukraine. Putin has been in charge during all of these . So by late 1991 as the USSR collapsed, those gaps had fallen to a mere one. Now it’s back to four or five, depending n what you include in the mix. He has at least another four to go.
I suspect where you are getting confused is in my use of the word “gaps”. In fact, I am referring to historical gateways into Mother Russia that were used by invaders-gaps such as the Bessarabian Gap for example. Now the USSR had plugged all of these gaps during its reign but when it collapsed, eight of those “plugs” no longer existed. In other words, immediately post the collapse, the number of plugged gaps had reduced to one.
Chris Gilmour
06 Jun 2022It is interesting to note the amount of sympathy that Russia gets in social media and elsewhere in Africa. Some of this relates to a liberation movement past that received training in the Soviet Union. Many ANC operatives are included here. As you know, the Soviet Union expanded into Africa during the 1960s, 70 and 80s, as did China, although to a much more limited extent. If you look at Cuba’s involvement in Africa, especially Angola, that was largely driven by Soviets and East Germans. However, with the extermination of communism in Europe, there was a massive domino effect all round the world. Cuba suddenly found itself with no big brother and Soviet/Russian expansion in Africa all but evaporated. But the ANC and their cohorts remained in a time warp, slavishly using terms such as “comrade” from their old communist party past and “Viva” from the Cuban campaigns in Africa. So even today, they are often unable to comprehend that the Soviet Union no longer exists, that communism is dead and that Russia is a gangster state that relies heavily on the sale of hydrocarbons for its continued existence. There is another reason why some African governments are sympathetic towards Russia, of course and this relates to their continued funding from Moscow.
Fox the Judge
06 Jun 2022Apparently Russia is a mystery. Part of Europe yet close to Asia in terms of alliances. Some may not be aware that it sold Alaska to USA creating an awkward American state north of sovereign Canada. It went to space first and one of its citizens created a killing machine AK47 which is both a symbol of freedom and carnage. Who wants a unipolar world where world decisions are made in one capital, which of course will be biased towards a specific culture and values. The prospect of Russia being completely swallowed by the west does not scare only the Chinese or Koreans but anyone who is neutral in world affairs.
Dougal
07 Jun 2022Most interesting. Thank you.
Hakeem the Navigator
07 Jun 2022What’s more interesting is how condescending you sound towards Africans in general. Somehow in your wisdom those who sympathize with Russia are stuck in a time warp. How very thoughtful of you!
Toorwyn
07 Jun 2022The truth is not condescending. Putin’s war on Ukraine is evil. So if somebody comes to your house and kills your family and takes your house that is ok with you. Nice guy
Chris Gilmour
07 Jun 2022Not condescending in the slightest. Just expressing an opinion. Look at the recent voting in the UN on resolutions involving Russia and Ukraine. African countries either abstained or actively supported Russia. I engage with many people of opposing views on Russia and other subjects as I believe it is important to understand other peoples’ opinions. However, on the Russian issue, I am utterly gobsmacked by how loyal most Africans with whom I engage are to Russia. Even when I show them incontrovertible evidence of Russian atrocities in Ukraine, they deflect by descending to “whatabout Yemen” or “whatabout Sudan” etc. Two wrongs don’t make a right. And the war in Ukraine is not only hurting the pockets of everyone around the world but it has the potential to result in widespread famine. All of this is completely avoidable but it won’t change unless Putin is dragged to the negotiating table. And he won’t do that if he feels he has the backing of so-called “non-aligned” countries in Africa and elsewhere.
The late Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu often spoke out against injustice and I am sure if he were still alive he would be very vocal against this Russian invasion. Let me leave you with one of his famous quotes “If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse, and you say that you are neutral, the mouse will not appreciate your neutrality. “If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse, and you say that you are neutral, the mouse will not appreciate your neutrality.”
Takadzani
07 Jun 2022Great Article, history summed up in 5 minutes.
Toorwyn
07 Jun 2022Thank you. Informative and factual.
Chris Gilmour
07 Jun 2022I take your points which are very valid. However, look at what happened immediately post WW2. The Americans created a system known as Pax Americana whereby all countries could trade with whomsoever they wanted when they wanted and where they wanted. The only pre-condition was that they came onside with the US against the USSR and later the CCP in China. However, with the ending of the cold war, that all changed. Successive American presidents from GHW Bush onwards have all been isolationists. They are not interested in being the global policeman any more. Even the present incumbent of the White House, Joe Biden, puts America first. On the other side of the cold war, the Russians have watched their fortunes dwindle. They were forced to the negotiating table as a direct result of the massive drop in the oil price in the late 80s, engineered to a large extent by Ronald Reagan and Saudi Arabia. By the late 90s, their banks were closing and the economy was teetering on the edge. It has come back to an extent but it is a relatively small economy and makes a lot more noise than it deserves, given its size. But it also has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weaponry and Putin is playing that card regularly now. I do not believe for a moment that he would dare use a tactical nuclear bomb but the west doesn’t want to test the hypothesis.
China of course had an economic miracle from the late 1970s onwards. Thanks to the disastrous one-child policy put in place by Deng Xiao Ping in 1979 and only revised to 2 and more recently 3 children, China now has the world’s worst demographics by far. It is in deep deep trouble and no amount of fiddling the economic books will disguise that. By the year 2050, their population will likely halve from current levels. Economic growth is faltering and the CCP is terrified, and rightly so.
So to your point about not wanting a unipolar world. I agree. India is the big up and coming country to be reckoned with and its population will surpass China’s within 20 years. Mexico, too is looking good. Ironically, the US is the only developed country to experience net population growth and by 2025 will probably have a population of around 400 million people. What we need to understand is that the “old order” for want of a better expression is evaporating. Fossil fuels are part of the old order. So we have an autocratic state in Russia that relies for its very existence on fossil fuel exports stomping all over democratic sovereign states, regardless of the cost in terms of human misery. That cannot be condoned by anyone, regardless of political affiilation…surely?