ASP Isotopes has a make-or-break year ahead (JSE: ISO)
They need to demonstrate commercialisation of key products
ASP Isotopes released a detailed business update to the market. This includes a $300 million EBITDA target for 2031 – essentially a five-year plan for the group.
With product revenue of just $5.7 million in 2025 and an attributable net loss of $175.1 million, there is a long way to go. The share price has been under significant pressure, so the company needed to give the market something to feel good about.
The thing that really matters is this line from the business update: “First commercial shipments expected across multiple isotopes in 2026”. As you’ll see further down, 2026 is going to be the make-or-break year for this business.
To support the business along this growth path, the balance sheet has $333 million in cash. During 2025, they raised $345 million through stock and convertible notes. The market will probably keep supporting the capital raises for as long as ASP Isotopes can show meaningful progress in the commercialisation of its product.
This brings us to what really counts: the underlying product strategies.
In the nuclear medicine space, the focus is on Ytterbium-176 and Carbon-14. The former is used for cancer treatments, while the latter is useful in chemical and biological research.
Things were looking good in 2025 for Ytterbium-176, with the first enriched sample shipped to a customer in August. Alas, a power surge at the facility in Gauteng damaged one of three lasers, requiring repair by the manufacturer and significant delays. They plan to ship commercial Ytterbium-176 by the third quarter of 2026.
In Carbon-14, initial commercial shipments are expected in mid-2026, although this depends on timely receipt of carbon-dioxide gas as feedstock.
In radiopharmaceuticals, ASP Isotopes has a 51% stake in PET Labs, a company that supplies nuclear medicine doses for PET and SPECT scanning in South Africa. They are growing quickly locally, giving them the confidence to execute an acquisition in the US in late 2025. Overall, this part of the business is expected to double its revenue in 2026 to over $10 million.
In the electronics space, ASP Isotopes plays in Silicon-28, helium and fluorinated gases. The idea is to serve chip fabs globally, tapping into the generational demand that we are seeing in that space thanks to AI.
In Silicon-28, customer samples were first shipped in August 2025. The first enriched product is due to ship in the second quarter of 2026.
In helium, the phase 1 well drilling at the Virginia Gas Project (acquired through the Renergen deal) was completed four months ahead of schedule. Across both LNG and liquid helium, they are targeting Phase 1 nameplate capacity by the third quarter of 2026. There is then a 44-month construction timeline for Phase 2.
Finally, in nuclear fuels, we find the Quantum Leap Energy business. This is being dressed up for an IPO at the moment, which is why we’ve seen so many press releases about this company. Although headquartered in Texas, the company uses the Pelindaba nuclear site right here in South Africa.
2026 is where the rubber hits the road for ASP Isotopes. Either way, I can’t see it being a flat year for the share price!
What will you be doing here?
Emira is making a significant play for Octodec (JSE: EMI | JSE: OCT)
They are looking to acquire up to 34.9% – and for a good reason
A 34.9% stake in a company may sound odd to you. In reality, it’s an extremely important level. If a shareholder breaches the 35% threshold, that investor is required to make an offer to all other shareholders. This is known as a mandatory offer, as the investor has no choice in the matter but to make the offer.
Through a patient approach, investors can choose to build their stakes up over time. This means acquiring a minority stake (where there is no control premium) at a lower price than the eventual controlling stake.
If you’ve picked up a third of the company without paying a control premium, you’ve ended up with a far more affordable deal than if you went for 100% right off the bat.
In the case of Emira, they have already acquired just over 20% in Octodec from various institutional asset managers in off-market transactions. They are now making a voluntary offer to shareholders to acquire enough shares to take Emira to a 34.9% holding.
In other words, they want to be just below the mandatory offer threshold.
The price on the table is R16.75 per share. Octodec’s net asset value (NAV) per share is R24.55. This is yet another example of shares changing hands at a substantial discount to the NAV.
Shareholders who like this price would tender their shares to Emira and then wait and see how many shares Emira takes from them. This will depend on the total number of shares tendered to Emira.
Interestingly, Octodec’s share price is up 79% in the past year, so that partially explains why the institutional investors were willing to exit their stakes!
Yes, RMH is in discussions to sell Grove Mall (JSE: RMH)
Where was the cautionary announcement for this?
There are a lot of questions being asked around the governance of RMB Holdings (RMH) and Atterbury Property Fund at the moment. The latest news won’t do them any favours, as RMH has been forced to respond to press reports about the proposed sale of The Grove Mall in Namibia.
Remember, RMH has been pursuing a value unlock strategy that stalled. This is the major underlying reason why the company believes that the market should consider the offer by the AttBid consortium at R0.47 per share.
Fair enough. But in that context, wouldn’t shareholders like to know that a potential sale of one of the assets is on the table, which could then lead to a cash distribution?
To be fair, the asset is held by Atterbury Property, in which RMH only has a 38.5% stake. It would be much worse if the negotiations were for one of the directly-held RMH properties. Even if the property is sold, there’s no guarantee that the proceeds would eventually flow up to RMH shareholders. In fact, there’s very little chance that this would happen, given the relationships among the parties.
Still, when your only remaining purpose as a listed company is to crystallise your assets and return cash to shareholders, it’s pretty wild that there’s a potential disposal being negotiated in the background without a cautionary announcement being released. Sure, the deal is still subject to due diligence and all the rest, but if the press got wind of it, then the cautionary should’ve been out already!
I could find no reference at all to The Grove Mall in the offer circular either. The whole situation in this deal just seems to be getting messier over time.
And in the background, AttBid has been buying up more shares. Together with Atterbury Property Fund, the parties now have 42.97% of shares in issue.
Sirius Real Estate keeps finding pockets of growth in Western Europe (JSE: SRE)
A focused strategy is the right strategy
Sirius Real Estate is one of the more interesting JSE-listed property funds. If you’re keen to understand their approach to capital allocation, I absolutely recommend listening to the podcast that I recorded with their executive team in December last year. It’s just as relevant now as it was then.
In a trading update for the financial year ended March 2026, the company has demonstrated the power of this strategy. The like-for-like rent roll growth of 6.4% is impressive when the underlying exposure is Germany and the UK. This is their 12th consecutive year of exceeding like-for-like rent roll growth of 5%!
They’ve been busy with deals, so the total rent roll is up 18.4% year-on-year. This is what happens when you acquire 13 assets for €464 million!
In Germany, recent pricing on leases has been particularly encouraging. They’ve achieved the desirable combination of higher rates and increased occupancy levels. The geopolitical backdrop is obviously creating uncertainty at the moment, but it also supports the strategy to acquire properties in Germany that appeal to tenants in the defence industry. The abovementioned podcast goes into this theme in great detail.
In the UK, weaker consumer confidence and uncertainty around government policy led to a disappointing end to calendar year 2025. But in the final quarter of the financial year (i.e. the first quarter of calendar year 2026), there was a decent catch-up in activity thanks to some of the policy issues being cleared up.
Overall, the group expects property valuations to be flat in the UK. At group level, valuations are up, implying that the performance in Germany was much better than in the UK.
Sirius raised £77 million in equity in February 2026. This helped them complete the acquisition of the Kiel property in Germany within just six weeks of the capital raise. Although the other deal on the table at the time has subsequently fallen over due to price expectations by the seller, Sirius has identified two alternative assets for the remaining targeted equity spend. One of them is a defence asset. Delays in capital deployment can be a drag on returns, but stubbornly doing deals at any price is much worse!
The group is also recycling capital through the sale of properties at a premium to book value. A significant disposal for €30 million is due to complete in July 2026.
Overall, it looks like the financial year was a success. The market will now wait for other key metrics, like funds from operations and the distribution to shareholders.
Nibbles:
- Director dealings:
- A director of Remgro (JSE: REM) received share awards and sold the whole lot worth R1.2 million.
- Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) announced that non-executive chairman, Quinton van der Burgh, has resigned from the board after the AGM. Another non-executive director has also stepped down.
