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Ghost Stories #112: Decision fatigue – why important financial decisions get delayed

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Stories #112: Decision fatigue – why important financial decisions get delayed

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In this episode of Ghost Stories, The Finance Ghost is joined by Colleen Wagner, CFO of Satrix, to unpack the concept of decision fatigue and why it so often causes long-term financial goals to fall to the bottom of the priority list.

The conversation also explores the disproportionate burden many women carry in managing households and caregiving responsibilities, and how this translates into retirement outcomes. Colleen shares practical strategies for breaking the cycle, including automation, goal-setting and simplifying investment decisions.

The episode is ultimately a reminder that successful retirement planning doesn’t require perfection or expertise. Instead, it needs consistent, manageable actions that can quietly work in the background while life carries on.

In this episode:

  • What decision fatigue is and why modern life makes it so difficult to focus on long-term financial goals.
  • The link between mental load, caregiving responsibilities and poorer retirement outcomes for women.
  • Why small, consistent actions can be more effective than attempting a complete financial overhaul.
  • The role of financial advisors in reducing uncertainty and creating structure around major financial decisions.
  • How ETFs and automated investing can help simplify wealth creation and reduce investment-related stress.

This podcast was first published here

Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. Today we are talking about decision fatigue. This feels very personal right now as someone who is tired, I’ve got to tell you. 

Day-to-day demands of school WhatsApp groups and apps, endless emails, the always-online expectations of work, that friend group you keep meaning to reply to (frankly, that friend you keep meaning to reply to) and that message from your mom you haven’t gotten to in two days as well.  

Now, layer on everything from what clothes to wear through to remembering to wish someone happy birthday and, frankly, you have a brain that is being assaulted from all angles at the moment, no matter how smart or how professional you are or what fancy job you’re in. In fact, I think if you’re in one of those jobs, it’s even worse.  

What tends to fall over in this case?

Well, as Satrix has highlighted to me, something that very quickly becomes a victim of this crazy modern world is your retirement goals. The challenge of just getting through each day can have quite painful long-term effects on not just your physical health, but your financial health as well. 

To further set the scene and bring us lots of insight into this topic, I’m welcoming a new voice from Satrix, which is very exciting: Colleen Wagner, the CFO of Satrix. She’s joining me to talk today about this concept of decision fatigue and how it affects our retirement savings.  

I’m going to quote a stat here that Colleen shared with me ahead of this. It’s from the DebtBusters Money-Stress Tracker in 2026 – women reported their highest financial stress levels in five years (so, that is since, basically, the middle of COVID), with close to three out of four women reporting financial stress.  

Now, we’ve been celebrating the women in our lives this month, but they are going through a lot. I really am not sure that it’s much easier for men either these days, especially ones with kids, because they’ve taken on much more of a role with the kids than in generations gone by.  

It’s a wild time to be an adult, Colleen, so thank you for taking time out of your stressful schedule to do the show with me. It’s lovely to have you here. 

Colleen Wagner: Thank you for having me, Ghost, and I couldn’t agree more. It is a wild time to be an adult. 

The Finance Ghost: No, it really is. It’s not called ‘adulting’ for nothing, as a terrifying verb. As a starting point, please walk us through how these multiple roles we play in our daily lives directly lead to this concept of ‘decision fatigue’ that you’ve brought to the fore. 

Colleen Wagner: I think an important starting point is that decision-making doesn’t happen in isolation. It accumulates throughout the day. Most of us are making countless micro-decisions before we even get to the bigger financial decisions that require proper thought and attention.  

 And the decisions that you’re making relate to family logistics, school admin, work priorities, household finances, caregiving responsibilities, and of course, social commitments, and everything else that sits in the background of your daily life. 

The mental load is not only about doing the tasks. It’s also about remembering what needs to happen for all of those decisions – anticipating what could go wrong, planning around everybody else’s needs, and being the co-ordinator for all the moving parts. This is mentally exhausting.

Even when others can’t see what you’re doing, there’s this constant stream happening in the background of your life, so by the time you get to your long-term financial decisions, there’s no bandwidth left for that.

Things like retirement planning, increasing contributions, reviewing investments – they fall by the wayside because it feels like it’s not as urgent as your current day-to-day decisions. And when you do get to those decisions, it’s not that you make bad decisions, it’s just that your decision is delayed.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s a funny thing, right? I think back to being a teenager and all I wanted was a smartphone. Now, at the ripe old age of 38, all I want to do is be able to get rid of my smartphone. Sheer bliss for me would be to just get rid of my phone for a week and not have it actually bother anyone. And it’s because we are just assaulted by all these things, right?  

As you said there: co-ordinating all the moving parts. I think that’s exactly how daily life goes, and it’s difficult. And I think we can all acknowledge that women, on average, do play a huge role in the co-ordination of our general daily lives, our household affairs. And yet, according to the 2025 Sanlam Financial Confidence Index, women are 21% behind men in reaching their retirement goals. And that’s a really big gap. And that’s a gap that compounds, which is also concerning.  

Do you believe that at least part of this impact is the disproportionate daily toll that women are perhaps carrying, versus men? Again, on average. There are always going to be exceptions. This is an averages game. That’s how statistics work. 

Do you think that’s having an impact on the retirement savings of women? 

Colleen Wagner: I think there’s a very real connection there, Ghost. The evidence increasingly suggests that the mental load women carry every day has long-term financial consequences.  

I think it’s important to note up front that it’s not a question of whether women are capable investors, because in many households they are already deeply involved in managing day-to-day finances and making important financial decisions.  

The issue is that this responsibility and that pressure and constant co-ordination make it much harder to prioritise long-term retirement planning. 

And in South Africa, the stats show that women carry a disproportionate share of household and caregiving responsibilities. The Stats SA General Household Survey 2021 showed that more than 40% of children live only with their mothers, compared to about 4% that live only with their fathers. 

And the practical financial implications are that women have greater childcare responsibilities, higher household expenditure, more career interruptions, and very often less room to actually save consistently for retirement. 

And as you mentioned earlier, this also shows up in the pressure that women experience in terms of how they use their retirement savings. The research shows that women are 1.3 times more likely than men to withdraw from their retirement savings under the two-pot retirement system and 80% more likely to use those withdrawals for school fees.  

This also tells us that women are often using their long-term savings to solve immediate household needs, which is completely understandable in the moment. But every withdrawal reduces the amount that can compound over time. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s such an indictment on society in so many ways. I like to think that there are no deadbeat dads listening to anything that I do, because I think that this is a financially savvy audience who understand responsibility. But this is a reality facing South African women. It really is.  

I think the other thing that is worth mentioning around the disproportionate load is that – particularly young kids and preschoolers, and this is my lived experience – it doesn’t matter how involved you are as a dad. We can convince ourselves of everything we want to try and convince ourselves of, but the reality is that a three-year-old and a four-year-old want mommy more than they want daddy. They just do. It’s one of those things. And it creates an additional source of decision fatigue.  

Obviously, this balances out as kids grow up, but I think it’s a time in our lives that’s so difficult. You’re in your 30s (maybe even early 40s, on average). You’re upwardly mobile in your career. You’ve got preschool kids. It’s a time where it’s absolute crunch time for your career and everything else. And that’s the exact moment these days where we have children running around who need an enormous amount of time from us, as opposed to back in the day when our parents were having us in their early to mid-20s.  

By the time my parents were late 30s, we were in high school (well not in my case, but still). And it’s just a completely different life now, a completely different time to be carrying all the strain. 

Plus, today, unless you have a dual-income household… good luck! Whereas back then, you could get away with a single-income household or a primary income / secondary income household. These days, if you want your kids to go to the good schools, etcetera, chances are very good that both of you are working.  

And that just talks to those points you raised around two-pot withdrawals and using that money for school fees. I mean, this is retirement money going into school fees, so it’s tough out there. There’s a huge daily load.  

And I think you’re seeing it come through in the birth rate, right? You’re seeing fewer people have children. If I look at my own peer group as well, people are just too scared to take on this responsibility because it’s a huge amount of time and it’s a huge amount of money. I’m guessing you’ve probably seen some of that in your peer group as well? 

Colleen Wagner: Absolutely. I think in my peer group, the average age of having kids is so much later than our parents, because it is so expensive to have a child. It’s not a decision that you can make lightly because you do have to think about school fees and supporting someone for at least 18 years, if not longer.  

And again, it seems counterintuitive that you withdraw your retirement savings to pay for school fees (the long-term effects of which can be quite detrimental to your retirement), but in the moment, when you need that money, it makes absolute sense because retirement is a decision that is happening in 10, 15, 20, 30 years. 

The Finance Ghost: Of course, all we’re doing is the stress is just flowing down through the family, right?  

Colleen Wagner: Yes. 

The Finance Ghost: So, we withdraw from retirement savings to help our children today. But there’s almost this implicit social contract of like, “Well, one day, when I’m much older, then you’re going to need to help me.” And then the birth-rate issues just compound because then our children can’t afford to have their own children because they’re too busy looking after their parents.  

So, there’s a hard thing going on out there that I think people are not talking about quite enough and it all adds to stress. And this is the exact point, right?  

You’ve got your daily life, you’ve got your money concerns, you’ve got your impact on your health from these things, which then drives additional fatigue, which I think makes you even less likely to get it right around retirement savings and believing in, frankly, just being around 30 or 40 years from now, let alone thinking, “What will my quality of life actually be?” It’s a tough time and there’s a spiral going on here. I think a lot of people get caught in it and it can be very damaging and very dangerous.  

But I know you’ve got some practical steps here that people can actually put in place to just try to break that tailspin and start to at least level out and get back to where they want to be getting to. 

Colleen Wagner: I think, Ghost, people think they need a complete financial overhaul to get out of that financial stress cycle, but in reality, the opposite is true. Momentum starts with small, manageable actions.  

And if I can break it down into five frameworks or principles, I’d start with reducing friction. Make the next step as easy as possible. That could mean simplifying your accounts, choosing fewer but clearer investment options or deciding in advance what your first action will be.  

Then the next one is to automate where possible, and I can’t emphasise this enough. It takes away the pressure of having to make a decision every month. If you decide upfront what you’re going to be doing, what you’re going to be investing, and where you’re going to be investing, and automate that, then it’s one less decision that you need to make on a daily basis. 

Set clear and realistic goals. If a goal is too vague, it can actually be overwhelming. It adds to your stress. But if a goal is specific – it’s a set amount that you’re going to contribute to a certain savings plan or investment – it’s easy to track and it’s easy to stick to.  

I would also say schedule regular financial reviews and stick to those reviews, because it also means that your retirement planning doesn’t fall to the bottom of your to-do list. And it avoids the pressure of having to make decisions about this every day, because you decide once a year or twice a year what you’re going to be doing, in terms of retirement planning or investment saving.  

And then I think the last point is to use advice and trusted frameworks. You don’t need to make your financial decisions in isolation. There are advisors and trusted experts that you can use, and this will reduce the uncertainty around making these decisions and providing structure.  

For me, it all speaks to the fact that small actions matter. So, progress creates confidence and confidence creates action. And then you’re in a sort of positive cycle, in terms of addressing financial stress. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, some really great stuff coming through there. I think something else that I find very helpful is to just write things down. I know it sounds ridiculous but just write them down, because now it’s out of your head.

This concept of ‘headspace’ is an enormous thing. We hold in so much all the time that we have to try to remember, then we forget things, and then we feel even worse about that. That’s where the spiral really comes in. And it’s amazing how just having that good, old-fashioned to-do list makes a huge difference.

Personally, I like actually writing it out. Well, I say that. I should do that. Sometimes, it’s just a reminder in my Outlook.

In fact, my all-time low, which I remember my wife laughing at a lot because it was very funny, was I had a particular Thursday in my calendar in Outlook and at 8am I’d written, as a diary entry, “Thursday, 8am”. Helpful, right?  

So, I obviously wanted to put something there. But what I ended up writing in the Thursday 8am slot was “Thursday, 8am”. Great reminder, very useful. Really helped me understand what I needed to do in that moment.  

So, that’s how your life can end up going. It’s the senior citizen problems that we joke about. You lose your glasses, you lose your wallet, you write things like “8am Thursday” in your diary, and it’s because you’re just overwhelmed and you’ve got to get it under control. It’s so difficult, right? 

Colleen Wagner: If you think about your diary, you’ve got your work meetings in your diary because those are important and things that you cannot miss. So, why wouldn’t you have things like “review financial plan” or “set up debit order” or things that are important to your financial well-being? Why not put that in your diary as well, or on your to-do list? 

The Finance Ghost: Just do a better job than me. Don’t write the date and time as the date and time. You have to do better than that if you’re going to write reminders. 

Colleen Wagner: [laughing] 

The Finance Ghost: Let’s move on to some of the financial stress that has a longer-term flavour to it, as opposed to the day-to-day stuff – managing budgets and that kind of thing. In my experience, I think women tend to be all over that. Honestly, I just think on average you guys are way more organised than us men and just on top of it and stick to plans and all those kinds of things, which is amazing.  

And research does seem to suggest that. St James’s Place in the UK, their research found that 84% of women are involved in household finances. And the reason why that stat is relevant is because the same research then showed that only 34% of women lead investment decisions.  

So, they are very, very involved in the day-to-day of how the house is run, but then only a third of them, roughly, take the lead on the investment decisions. And that obviously leads directly to a conversation around retirement saving. 

Now in the modern world, where pretty much everyone is working and the gender pay gap is (hopefully, at least) closing a lot – I mean, I don’t know, I’m probably the wrong person to ask. I don’t even work in corporate anymore, but I like to think that these issues are starting to fall behind us. It feels like there should be equilibrium, then, in taking the lead on investment decisions. There’s no logical reason why it should be male dominated.  

So, how do you believe that equilibrium can be achieved in that space over time? How can more women feel empowered to actually play a major role here in the long-term thinking, not just keeping the lights on every week and making sure that the household doesn’t collapse? 

Colleen Wagner: So, Ghost, I think this is extremely important because research shows that women’s life expectancy is longer than men’s. A healthy 65-year-old woman is going to outlive a healthy 65-year-old man by approximately two years. And in practical terms, women are retiring with less money, but they need that money to last longer. 

Therefore, retirement investing isn’t optional or secondary; it’s central to long-term financial independence. 

And I think the way to get equilibrium in financial planning is to normalise women as long-term investors so they’re not just household budget managers. Because women also demonstrate investor behaviours that are associated with success: patience, discipline, goal orientation, long-term thinking and a willingness to seek advice. 

Another important point is that, very often, people think that in order to invest, they need to be experts before they participate. In reality, you don’t need to be an expert. Confidence will follow action, so the more you act, the more confident you will be. 

This is also why investment conversations need to be less intimidating. We need to move away from jargon-heavy discussions and focus on clear questions. What am I investing for? How long do I have? How much do I contribute? What level of risk am I willing to accept? 

This also feeds into education, because education is a key confidence builder. Knowledge reduces uncertainty, and very often uncertainty is one of the major factors that feeds into the inertia related to decision fatigue. So, long-term investing should be viewed as an act of self-care and financial independence as opposed to something secondary or something that you will get to “when you have the time”. 

The Finance Ghost: Can’t possibly put it better myself. I love the self-care reference there. I think that’s so important. I also love the point around not needing to be an expert, because you don’t need to be an expert.  

 You can go and find any of the research you like, go and listen to some of the podcasts I’ve had with experts, even from the Satrix team. Kingsley, Nico, Siya, Duma – they’ll all give you much the same message, which is to say that over the long term, the stats show us that participating in the market is going to give you the best long-term returns.

It might give you some short-term volatility (or, it will give you some short-term volatility), and it might not look the best over six months or one year (or even three years, if you get unlucky with the cycle), but long-term diversified equities work, and that is where you don’t need to be an expert. You just need to be consistent and believe that what you are doing today is going to be worth it in 10, 20, 30 years’ time.  

And of course, using things that exist, the structures that are out there. Like a tax-free savings account, which is a very rare example of a free lunch. If ever there was a free lunch – I know Kingsley always says, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch,” – but if ever there was one, then it’s got to be the tax-free savings account.  

It’s literally a gift from government to say, “Hey, max this out every year and never pay tax on anything you earn in this account.” That is my go-to every year, to first get the tax-free savings account done and then worry about what to do with the rest.  

So, there are some just really good rules of thumb out there that you can use. Plus, of course, speaking to a financial advisor is very important because it brings some much-needed structure to the conversation and it frees up headspace, which as we’ve discussed is actually something very important.  

From your perspective, Colleen, how do you see the importance of financial advisors and the roles that they play? 

Colleen Wagner: Advisors play a very important role, Ghost, because they turn an overwhelming topic into a structured conversation. When you’re already carrying a lot of mental load, the value of advice is not only the technical stuff. It’s also about creating clarity, narrowing your options, and helping you make a decision in the right order.  

An advisor can help you prioritise your goals, understand the trade-offs, and set up a disciplined plan that you can then commit to even when markets are volatile. I think that matters because uncertainty, again, is one of the biggest drivers of decision fatigue. 

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Let’s finish off with a point around ETFs, because this, of course, is the Satrix bread and butter. It’s what you are known for. In fact, you basically created this market in South Africa – we’ve had some good chats before on the show about the history of ETFs here. 

They really are a handy solution. There are ways to invest in them with small amounts consistently every month, which sounds like it ties up with the financial plan and the sort of advice you were giving there around how to just break the spiral.  

And there’s obviously SatrixNOW, which makes it nice and easy, but there are a number of different ways to invest as well. So, just give us an idea of how the Satrix product suite can actually reduce the mental load here.  

And let me just say, very authentically, I firmly believe that something like exchange-traded funds would be a really smart way for the majority of people to participate in the market. I think when you’re going to go down the route of stock picking and trying to be clever, you’re adding to your mental load. You’re not taking it away. You’re choosing to make it a hobby or something you want to really get good at.  

And that’s wonderful, and I love you for it, because it means you’re probably reading Ghost Mail and learning about stocks, but it’s not for everyone. Whereas I think this is a really smart way for people to just get their retirement savings on the right path. 

Colleen Wagner: Absolutely. As you said, ETFs simplify access to investing. So, instead of trying to choose individual shares, one ETF can give you exposure to a basket of securities or a particular market, or even global access. 

This gives investors diversification, transparency, and cost efficiency in a way that’s easy to understand and easy to implement. And when you’re already stretched, simplicity is very important. It reduces that sense that investing has to be complicated before you can participate. 

It also means that you can build a repeatable habit – so, again, it reduces your decision fatigue. You decide, once where you’re investing, what you’re doing, how much you’re investing, and that’s it. 

And at Satrix, our philosophy has always been about democratising investing and reducing barriers to participation. SatrixNOW allows you to invest very, very minimal amounts into a range of local and global ETFs. It allows you to automate your contributions and this means you can build your wealth gradually over time. 

The overall point is that we don’t want to add another task to someone’s already busy life. We want to make investing something that can happen consistently in the background and with a plan that’s simple enough to stick with. 

The Finance Ghost: All of that sounds incredibly sensible, I must say. 

Colleen, thank you so much for your time today. And to everyone out there listening to this who feels like they are spiralling, you are not alone at all. I mean, I’ve had to make some pretty big changes to Ghost Mail lately to just get my own life to a place where I feel like I have a chance of actually watching my children grow up. Because honestly, it was just impossible.  

And if you’re trying to do this on hard mode with young kids and a career, or your own business, or whatever the case is, just stay the course. And wherever you can reduce mental load, just reduce it. Try to simplify where you can. Write things down. It’s hard. It’s really hard. You’re not alone. I feel it all the time. Colleen, I suspect you do as well. 

I guess that’s the message today, really. In all the noise and in the storm, just try to remember there’s a 20-, 30-, 40-year (hopefully) horizon and you do need to just try to be consistent and put the small steps in place today that are going to make your future self thank you in a big way. So, that’s the message today.  

And please do check out the Satrix platform and all the ETFs there. Speak to your financial advisor, as always. Colleen, thank you very, very much for all of the insights today, some really cool stats, and for your time, of course. 

Colleen Wagner: Thank you very much for having me, Ghost.  

Disclaimer:

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an approved financial service provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, No 37 of 2002 (“FAIS”). The information above does not constitute financial advice in term of FAIS.

Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Actively managed ETFs (AMETFs) the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of an ETFs and AMETFs, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange.  ETFs and AMETF are registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange, LISP platforms and or via online trading platforms. ETFs and AMETFs may incur additional costs due to it being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Should the respective portfolio engage in scrip lending, the utility percentage and related counterparties can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document. The index, the applicable tracking error and the portfolio performance relative to the index can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document.

Performance is based on NAV to NAV calculations with income reinvestments done on the ex-div date. Performance is calculated for the portfolio and the individual investor performance may differ as a result of initial fees, actual investment date, date of reinvestment and dividend withholding tax. Some funds may hold assets in foreign countries and could be exposed to risks such as potential constraints on liquidity and the repatriation of funds, macroeconomic, political, foreign exchange, tax risks, settlement risks and potential limitations on the availability of market information.

A feeder fund is a portfolio that invests in a single portfolio of a collective investment scheme, which levies its own charges and which could result in a higher fee structure for the feeder fund. The manager has the right to close the portfolio to new investors in order to manager it more efficiently in accordance with its mandate. A money market portfolio is not a bank deposit account. The price is targeted at a constant value. The total return to the investor is made up of interest received and any gain or loss made on any particular instrument and in most cases the return will merely have the effect of increasing or decreasing the daily yield, but that in the case of abnormal losses it can have the effect of reducing the capital value of the portfolio. Excessive withdrawals from the portfolio may place the portfolio under liquidity pressures and in such circumstances a process of ring-fencing of withdrawal instructions and managed pay-outs over time may be followed. Seven day rolling yield is calculated by taking into account the interest earned by the fund during a 7 day period minus any management fees incurred during those seven days. The yield is a current and is calculated on a daily basis. A fund of funds portfolio is a portfolio that invests in portfolios of collective investment schemes that levy their own charges, which could result in a higher fee structure for the fund of funds. AMETF are ETFs which are actively traded by a Portfolio Manager to adjust the AMETF holdings and asset allocation with the aim to outperform the benchmark. AMETF differ from ETFs which only track indices. The Manager does not provide any guarantee either with respect to the capital or the return of a portfolio. Satrix retains full legal responsibility for the co-named portfolios. For further information related to performance of a specific fund please refer to the MDD of the fund on Satrix.co.za website. Full details and basis of the award is available from the Manager.

RCL FOODS: Sugar and Pet Food challenges

RCL FOODS
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RCL FOODS: Sugar and Pet Food challenges

“Despite the challenges faced during the year, we remained firmly aligned to our strategy of building a better-balanced, more branded business. We maintained a disciplined focus on operational efficiencies, ongoing innovation and continued investment in our brands, while remaining agile in responding to a complex operating environment,”

Paul Cruickshank, Chief Executive Officer

Note: these results have been provided by RCL FOODS and do not include any commentary by The Finance Ghost. You can refer to the full results here.

KEY HEADLINES:

  • Sugar negatively impacted by increased imports due to ineffective tariff protection
  • Production challenges disrupted Pet Food operations in the second half of the financial year
  • Market remains subdued with volume pressure across most categories
  • Continuous Improvement (CI) and Net Revenue Management (NRM) initiatives continue to support margin protection across the business
  • Revised Dollar-based reference price implemented in August 2026, supporting a more favourable outlook for the sugar industry

FINANCIAL SUMMARY – CONTINUING OPERATIONS*:

RESULTS COMMENTARY:

RCL FOODS’ results were materially impacted by challenges in its Sugar and Pet Food operations. Sugar was negatively affected by high volumes of deep-sea imports, driven by ineffective tariff protection, which reduced local market demand and increased the proportion of production directed to lower-priced export markets. In Pet Food, production disruptions constrained supply and the business’s ability to meet demand during the second half of the financial year.

Despite a stabilisation in food inflation and lower interest rates compared to prior years, South African households remained cautious with their spending. Several years of elevated inflation, high debt-servicing costs, weak real wage growth and, more recently, higher fuel costs continued to constrain disposable income.

Average international raw sugar prices were down 22.6% from the prior year, which together with an ineffective sugar tariff contributed to 212 684 tons of deep-sea sugar imports, up 24.2% year on year, significantly impacting profitability across growers and millers in the South African sugar industry.

Revenue for the year ended June 2026 decreased by 4.1% to R24.5 billion (2025: R25.5 billion), largely due to lower realised Sugar prices and volumes together with lower Pet Food volumes. Underlying EBITDA declined by 8.6%. Underlying headline earnings declined by 27.1%, compounded by a materially lower share of profits from our associate Royal Eswatini Sugar as it was also impacted by the adverse sugar market dynamics.

The Board of Directors resolved to declare a final cash dividend of 25.0 cents per share for the year ended June 2026, bringing the total dividend for the year to 40.0 cents per share (2025: 60.0 cents per share).

STRATEGIC REVIEW

RCL FOODS completed the agreed reshaping of its portfolio with Rainbow’s exit from the central business services platform at the end of the current year, concluding a journey that began with the disposal of Vector Logistics and the unbundling of Rainbow. The focus going forward will remain on ensuring the platform remains fit for purpose and leveraging its capability through organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

The strategy is guided by three pillars – People First, Right Growth and Future Fit – and by a focused set of Value Creation Levers centred on profitably growing the Culinary core, driving innovation in Baking and Pet Food, building a more sustainable Sugar operation and enhancing margins across the business.

The Group continued to make good progress against the enablers underpinning the People First pillar, with particular emphasis on building a high-performance culture. Leadership changes strengthened capability across the business and new employment equity plans were implemented. The short-term staff level employee incentive scheme is now embedded across the business, aligning effort, performance and shareholder interests.

The Right Growth pillar was advanced through several targeted growth initiatives. The Sunbake Sourdough range was well received by retailers and consumers and rolled out ahead of plan, while Pieman’s Pockets gained promising momentum in the frozen. Culinary maintained category leadership and strengthened brand equity despite intense competition. RCL FOODS also entered into a binding agreement to acquire Martin & Martin, a leading South African producer of wet pet food and pet care products with brands including Husky, Pamper, Beeno and Bob Martin. The acquisition remains subject to Competition Authorities approval.

Under the Future Fit pillar, CI and NRM programmes again performed well and contributed materially to results. The Group advanced the next phase of its IT roadmap, deployed new costing, sales and warehouse-management capabilities and began scaling digital and artificial-intelligence capabilities around a portfolio of high-value use cases to drive competitiveness, manage costs and accelerate innovation.

Sustainability gained further strategic traction as the Group strengthened its ability to support the transition to a lower-carbon, more resilient business. Scope 3 emissions baselining, climate-risk scenario analysis and decarbonisation planning advanced this transition. Enhanced environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data and environmental performance measurement strengthened decision-making, risk management and long-term value creation.

“In a testing year, our response across the business was to focus firmly on the factors within our control. We protected margins in categories under pressure, completed the agreed reshaping of our portfolio, continued investing in our brands and people, and accelerated the programmes that are creating long-term value. CI and NRM remain important drivers of performance across the Group, with further benefits expected in the year ahead,” said Paul Cruickshank, Group CEO.

OPERATIONAL REVIEW – CONTINUING OPERATIONS

In the Groceries business unit (comprising Culinary, Pet Food and Beverages), revenue decreased by 3.2% to R5 238.2 million, while underlying EBITDA decreased by 19.4% to R477.5 million. Encouraging performances from Culinary and Beverages were overshadowed by Pet Food production disruptions following a nationwide recall in March of certain dry pet food products. Total
Pet Food volumes ended 20.5% down on the prior year. Culinary delivered a pleasing result supported by higher margins from CI and NRM initiatives and volume growth in dressings, despite a highly competitive market.

In the Baking business unit (comprising Bread, Buns & Rolls, Milling, Pieman’s and Speciality), revenue was flat at R9 293.4 million, while underlying EBITDA improved 15.3% to R922.4 million. Pleasing performances from Speciality and Pieman’s, together with manufacturing efficiencies and CI savings, supported the result. During the year, a R206.1 million impairment was recognised in the Sunshine business, which continues to face challenges recovering volumes following the December 2024 labour disruption.

In the Sugar business unit (consisting of Sugar and Molatek), revenue declined 8.2% to R9 887.5 million, while underlying EBITDA decreased by 21.6% to R754.6 million. High volumes of deep-sea imports, coupled with inadequate tariff protection, reduced demand in the local market and increased the proportion of production directed to lower-priced export markets. Total industry local-market volumes declined 10.3%, while export volumes increased 48.3% during the year. Despite these headwinds, the business delivered a good operational result, underpinned by improved agricultural and manufacturing performance. Molatek delivered another positive result driven by an improved sales mix, together with production and CI efficiencies, which was partially offset by lower volumes (down 8.3%), largely due to the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Following the reporting date, ITAC concluded its investigation into the Dollar-based Reference Price (DBRP) and a revised DBRP was implemented in August 2026. The revised reference price is expected to reduce the influx of subsidised deep-sea imports and support an improved balance between local-market and export sales into the new season.

These developments mark an important step towards improving the long-term sustainability and stability of the South African sugar industry.

The continued operation of Tongaat Hulett Limited (Tongaat) remains important to the stability of the North Coast of KwaZulu-Natal and the South African sugar industry. Tongaat’s business rescue practitioners filed for the company’s provisional liquidation in February 2026, creating a period of uncertainty for the industry. That uncertainty eased considerably in June 2026 when the application was withdrawn following a funding arrangement involving the Industrial Development Corporation and the prospective buyers, with Tongaat remaining in business rescue.

The approved business rescue plan provides for the payment of historic sugar industry obligations of approximately R517 million relating to the 2023 sugar season. The non-payment of these statutory obligations over an extended period placed severe financial strain across the sugar value chain, particularly on small-scale growers.

During the business rescue process, the business rescue practitioners challenged their obligation to make the relevant payments. Following the Constitutional Court’s recent refusal of Tongaat’s application for leave to appeal, the matter has now been finalised. This outcome, together with the withdrawal of the liquidation application, removes the remaining impediments to the implementation of the business rescue plan and the settlement of the outstanding industry obligations.

PROSPECTS

RCL FOODS does not anticipate a meaningful recovery in market volumes in the near term. However, the Group remains focused on the factors within its control, including CI, NRM, innovation and brand investment, and is confident in its ability to adapt and position the business for stronger returns as market conditions improve.

In Pet Food, the focus is on executing the recovery plan, restoring customer confidence and rebuilding market share while continuing to progress the longer-term growth strategy. In Sugar, the operational and agricultural momentum built during the year is expected to continue. With the DBRP now revised, we expect the influx of deep-sea imports to ease and the balance between local-market and export sales to improve, supporting a more favourable outlook for the sugar industry. The interplay of sugar pricing, the tariff environment and the rand/dollar exchange rate will continue to present a degree of risk and volatility.

A protected strike commenced in the South African sugar manufacturing and refining industry following unsuccessful industry-level wage negotiations. While the financial impact remains uncertain, a prolonged strike may adversely affect production volumes and earnings.

“We remain focused on the factors within our control. We have navigated difficult conditions before and are confident in our ability to continue adapting, executing and creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders,” concluded Cruickshank.

2026-Summary-Consolidated-Financial-Statements

Rainbow Chicken Annual Results: Unleashing Potential

Rainbow Chicken
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Rainbow Chicken Annual Results: Unleashing Potential

“By consistently advancing our five strategic pillars; operational efficiencies, competitive procurement, future-proofing the business, unlocking people potential, and strengthening market-facing capabilities, Rainbow continues to improve its operational resilience and competitiveness. This strategic focus enables us to deliver quality, affordable products to customers and consumers, adapt to changing market dynamics, and support long-term value creation while contributing meaningfully to South Africa’s food system.”

Marthinus Stander, Chief Executive Officer

Through continued investment in agricultural performance, feed optimisation, and operational efficiency, the Group is strengthening its competitiveness, enhancing biosecurity, and building a more resilient business.

Read the full results here. Selected slides from the earnings presentation and results announcement have been provided below for your convenience.

Note: these results have been provided by Rainbow Chicken and do not include any commentary by The Finance Ghost.

TURNAROUND STRATEGY SUCCESSFULLY EXECUTED

OUTLOOK: DISCIPLINED EXECUTION

FIVE STRATEGIC PILLARS:

Rainbow_SFA_2026_PRINT

Who decided it was time?

Dominique Olivier
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Who decided it was time?

The time you see on your watch or your phone wasn’t handed down by the heavens. It was set by people who wanted trains to run on schedule, and it has been running your life ever since.

For most of human history, the answer to “what time is it?” was a local one. You looked up, found the sun, and if it was directly overhead, it was noon. At least, it was noon where you were. The next town over had its own noon, arriving a few minutes earlier or later depending on which way you’d travelled, and nobody minded, because nobody was in a hurry to be anywhere at a time that another town had decided on.

This was how humans lived for a very long time. And then it all changed the moment we invented the railway.

Why? Because a train has to leave the station at a particular time, and it has to arrive at another station, in another town, at another particular time – and if those two towns disagree about what “12 o’clock” means, you have a scheduling problem that ends in a collision. 

In 1840s Britain, the railways simply overruled everybody. They imposed a single standard called “railway time” across the whole network, and towns that had kept their own noon since Noah were told, politely but firmly, to get with the programme. The United States followed in 1883, when the railroads carved the country into time zones by fiat (government decree).

Within a year the whole planet followed. In October 1884, delegates from 26 nations met in Washington and agreed to slice the entire globe into zones measured from a line running through a little London suburb named Greenwich, chosen not for any cosmic reason, but rather because that was where most of the world’s ships already pointed their clocks. The meridian of the human day was set, by vote, in a single conference.

The time you see on your phone right now was not handed down by nature or ordained by the heavens. It was set by a committee that wanted trains to run on schedule. 

The invention of being late

Once time became standard, it could become a schedule, and once it became a schedule, it could become a leash.

Before industrialisation, a farmer worked by the task and the season. You milk the cows when the cows need milking, you bring in the harvest when the harvest is ready, and the rest sorts itself out. There is no such thing as being three minutes late to a wheat field. 

But a factory runs on synchronised human beings, all of them present at once, all of them starting together and all of them downing tools together at the end of the day. The mechanism that makes coordinated factory work possible is the clock on the wall and the whistle that answers to it.

This was roughly when punctuality got reclassified from a personal quirk to a moral virtue. Being on time became a sign of good character, while being late became a small crime against your employer. As a species, we’ve absorbed this so completely that most of us (but definitely not all of us) feel a flush of guilt at a delayed arrival, as though we’ve wronged the universe when in fact we’ve merely disappointed a scheduling convention invented to keep looms running.

Eight hours for what we will

The eight hour workday, which we now treat almost as a fact of the natural world, was hard-won and surprisingly recent. Through much of the 19th century, a working day of 12, 14, sometimes 16 hours was normal, for adults and children alike. The demand that finally changed this came from the Welsh reformer Robert Owen’s slogan, which has a pleasing symmetry to it: eight hours for work, eight hours for rest, eight hours for what we will.

Note that third eight – “for what we will”. That’s not eight hours to recover so you can work again, but eight hours that simply belong to you, to spend on whatever a human being decides is worth spending a life on. It took decades of strikes and a fair amount of blood before the idea of an eight hour work day became standard in the 20th century. Henry Ford, factory line enthusiast, adopted it in 1914 partly because he’d worked out that exhausted workers make worse cars, and rested ones have the energy to go and buy them.

This is how the day you live inside was negotiated. The morning belongs to the railway (or the commute), the working hours belong to the factory (or the desk), and the evening belongs to you – but only because someone fought to carve it out.

The man outside of time

So what would happen if we ditched the convention of time completely and allowed ourselves to be led by our circadian rhythms? Fortunately we don’t have to guess, because we already know. 

In 1962, a 23-year-old French geologist named Michel Siffre climbed down into a freezing cavern beneath the Alps to find out what would happen if a man lived completely out of time. He took food, a tent, scientific equipment and a telephone line to the surface. He had no clock, no calendar, no daylight and no way of knowing what time it was. His only rule was to live entirely by the rhythms of his body: sleep when tired, eat when hungry, and let his team above ground do the timekeeping in secret.

He stayed in the cavern for two months, and his body adapted in unexpected ways. Cut off from the sun, Siffre’s internal clock slipped onto its own schedule, stretching his “days” well past 24 hours without him ever noticing. When his team told him the experiment was over, he was convinced they had made a mistake and that weeks remained; he thought the date was in August when it was in fact the middle of September. He had lost around 25 days without feeling their absence. When asked to count to 120 at one-second intervals, he took five full minutes to get it done.

He repeated his experiment in 1972, this time for six months in a cave in Texas, while wired to electrodes. The result was the same, only stranger: his days sometimes ballooned to 48 hours, and he could not tell the long ones from the short ones. “What is time?” he said, decades later. “We don’t know.”

What Siffre’s research suggests is that your unshakeable sense that a day is a day, that an hour is an hour, that time is a steady external drumbeat, isn’t your body reporting a fact. It’s your body being cued by the sun, the clock, and the calendar. Remove those cues and the apparatus doesn’t stop so much as slide. Siffre’s internal clock kept running, it just ran wrong, and he never felt the error. Our sense of time turns out to be far more externally scaffolded than it feels. We don’t so much sense time anymore as get told it.

The last schedule

Which brings us (inevitably) to the machines.

For two centuries the deal has been simple: time is money, and the working day is the container we pour our labour into. Eight hours in, a day’s output out. But now artificial intelligence is beginning to sever the link between the hours and the work. If a task that once filled an afternoon now takes a machine four minutes, the afternoon itself does not disappear. It just stops being full.

The question nobody has answered yet is this: when the work no longer fills the container, do we shrink the container? Do we introduce a four day week, or a six hour day? Do we cancel the eight hour workday, finally admitting it was always a little arbitrary? Or do we do the thing we’ve done every single time before, and simply find more work to pour in, so that the schedule survives even after its reason for existing has evaporated?

The schedule has never really been about the work. It’s about control of the day, and who gets to own your hours.

The machines are promising to hand us a great deal of time back, and the only real question is whether we’ll have the nerve to keep it, or feel the pressure to fill it.

Time was once something you looked up at the sun to find. Then it became something a committee decided. Soon it may become something you get to decide for yourself again – if, that is, you can remember how.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

You can learn more about her work at dominiqueolivier.com and she can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Marylou Greig
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Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Dipula Properties successfully concluded a private placement for c.R1,1 billion of new equity. The new shares will be listed on September 1, 2026. The capital raise will help fund the acquisition of a portfolio of nine shopping centres from the Moolman Group and co-investors for R2,04 billion.

Italtile has declared a special dividend to shareholders of 25 cents per share for an aggregate R330,4 million.

Datatec has declared a special dividend of R29 per share with a scrip distribution alternative. The declaration will return an amount of R7,05 billion to shareholders

Numeral has extended the closing date of its February announced capital raise to 31 August 2026. The company aims to raise R100 million via a private placement of 500 million shares at R0.20 per share.

The failure by Labat to pay the declared dividend according to its announced corporate action timetable has resulted in the JSE suspending the trading of the company’s shares on the exchange with immediate effect.

The JSE has imposed a public censure and a fine of R5 million on Trustco for knowingly implementing a Category 1 transaction without obtaining the requisite shareholder approval as required by the Listing Requirements. Trustco applied to the Financial Services Tribunal for the reconsideration of the JSE’s decision, but this was dismissed on 20 August 2026.

Seodi Coal brought a liquidation application against Efora Energy in the High Court with the matter heard on 25 August 2025. The matter was struck off the urgent roll and accordingly no provisional liquidation order was granted against the company. The company remains suspended from trading on the JSE.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

South32 has extended its repurchase programme which commenced in September 2025. The company will in total acquire up to 4,49 billion shares with a proposed buyback end date of 10 September 2027.

MTN has launched a share repurchase programme of c.31 million ordinary shares for an aggregate R6 billion. The repurchase programme commenced on 24 August 2026. The programme aims to deliver longer term incremental value to MTN shareholders.

Bid Corporation repurchased 2,6 million shares at an average price per share of R409.35 for an aggregate R1,06 billion. The shares were repurchased during the Group’s financial 2026 year.

Ninety One plc announced an increase in the repurchase programme from £30 million to £55 million. The shares, to be purchased on the open market, will be cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. During the period 17 to 21 August 2026, the company repurchased a further 18,344 ordinary shares at an average price 215 pence for an aggregate £39,438.

In March 2026, Quilter commenced a £100 million share buyback programme, to reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders. The maximum aggregate purchase price payable by the company under Tranche 2 is up to C.£30 million. During the period 17 to 24 August 2026, Quilter repurchased 444,264 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £860,747 and 201,925 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R8,56 million.

Reinet Investments commenced its proposed 7th share buyback programme, for up to an aggregate maximum amount of €250 million subject to a maximum of 8 million ordinary shares over a period commencing 18 August 2026 and ending on 15 December 2026 at the latest. The shares will not be cancelled. During the period 18 to 21 August 2026, the company repurchased 558,491 shares for an aggregate R247,71 million.

In June 2026, Greencoat Renewables announced its intention to commence a second tranche of the repurchase programme to return a further €25 million of capital to shareholders. The second tranche repurchase will be complete by end-December 2026. This week 391,899 shares were repurchased for an aggregate €307,936.

Bytes Technology announced in May 2026 its intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million. This week the company repurchased 624,112 shares at an average price per share of £4.13 for an aggregate £2,58 million.

British American Tobacco has again extended its share buyback to end on 12 October 2026. All shares repurchased will be cancelled. Over the period 17 to 21 August 2026, the company repurchased a further 780,162 shares at an average price of £41.42 per share for an aggregate £32,31 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. Over the period 17 to 21 August 2026, the group repurchased 765,000 shares for €51,16 million.

During the period 17 to 21 August 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 1,837,563 Prosus shares for an aggregate €69,03 million and Naspers, a further 668,936 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R528,78 million.

Three companies issued profit warnings this week: Trellidor, Sanlam and Afrocentric Investment Corporation.

Six companies announced, renewed or withdrew cautionary notices: Dipula Properties, Tongaat Hulett, Northam Platinum, Raubex, Newpark REIT and Mantengu.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
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Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Listed Companies

The Northam Platinum board issued a cautionary announcement this week advising shareholders that it received an unsolicited, exploratory, and non-binding approach from a major rival in the South African Platinum Group Metals sector. Northam did not officially name the interested party, stating it was not warranted at this stage. The announcement, seen as a way to start a public bidding war, is designed to bring out competing proposals and so establish the group’s true market value.

Dipula Properties has agreed to acquire a retail property portfolio from the Moolman Group and its co-investors in a transaction valued at R2,04 billion. The deal adds nine shopping centres and approximately 89,168 m² of gross lettable area across four South African provinces and is immediately earning accretive. The acquisition constitutes a category 2 transaction and as such does not require shareholder approval. In addition, the group has successfully completed a private placement for c.R1,1 billion of new equity.

Following the receipt of two binding offer for the acquisition of the company’s Large Waste Project based in Zambia, Jubilee Metals has selected a preferred purchaser and will receive a disposal consideration of $35 million. The deal allows Jubilee to monetise a non-core greenfield asset and redirect capital into expanding its core, integrated copper mining and processing infrastructure in Zambia.

Sabvest Capital has announced it is to subscribe for c. 8.97% stakes in Frogfoot and Vox, two local fibre internet providers. Sabvest forms part of the DNI Consortium members which will hold a 34.8% stake in the companies. The new growth capital will materially accelerate the physical expansion of high-speed fibre to previously underserved and lower-income township communities. The investment will enable Frogfoot to increase its pace of home connections fourfold to 360,000 homes per annum over the next 12 months, creating over 5000 direct jobs in local communities. The transaction includes a subscription for new shares in both Frogfoot and Vox (including its wholly owned subsidiary Hypa) by multiple incoming investors, who add both strategic and economic value to the companies.

Mantengu announced on August 26, 2026, that it officially intends to dispose of its silicon carbide subsidiary, Sublime Technologies, and has invited interested parties to approach the company. Sublime has generated no income and has been non-operational since May 2025 with delays in Eskom tariffs contributing to the losses incurred by the facility.

DealMakers is SA’s quarterly M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Beyond the ten-year fund: Permanent capital as a potential African alternative

Mikayla Barker
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Beyond the ten-year fund: Permanent capital as a potential African alternative

There are various forms of investment vehicles, each with their own advantages and disadvantages.

Private equity (PE) faces distinct structural headwinds in Africa. Shallow and illiquid capital markets make exits hard to execute because initial public offering opportunities are thin, and trade sale buyers with the balance sheet depth to pay full value are scarcer than in developed markets. Currency volatility and limited hedging instruments erode USD-denominated returns even when the underlying business performs well in local currency terms, while inconsistent regulatory enforcement, land/title uncertainty and slower judicial recourse raise the cost and duration of due diligence and post investment monitoring. The result is that closed-end funds are often required to (i) extend their term, or (ii) establish a continuation vehicle. However, these routes merely serve to manage the symptoms and do not cure the root problem.

A third option is highlighted in this article, namely a permanent capital vehicle (PCV). A PCV is a fund structure with no fixed term or mandatory wind-down date. Capital is raised to hold assets indefinitely (or on a rolling, evergreen basis), rather than being returned to investors within a typical fund life. Returns to limited partners come through periodic distributions (dividends, refinancing or partial realisation) rather than a forced sale of the underlying asset at a predetermined point.

For African assets spanning multiple jurisdictions, which inherently take longer to reach full value, a PCV should be treated as a structuring choice made from the outset, rather than a fallback used once the fund reaches its investment horizon. Unlike the first two solutions mentioned above, a PCV does not manage the exit better, it removes the need for one. The trade-off, however, is a significantly narrower investor universe, typically limited to development finance institutions (DFIs) and other investors willing to commit patient, long-term capital.

ON THE CLOCK

A closed-end fund (Fund) is a PE structure with a capped pool of capital and a fixed lifespan. Investors (being limited partners) commit capital during a defined fundraising window. That capital is deployed over a period of three to five years, with the Fund then expected to exit its assets and return proceeds within a total life of ten years, sometimes even between twelve and fifteen years.

The clock does not pause for a distressed buyer pool or for assets still in their ramp-up phase. When a Fund reaches its investment horizon, its managers owe their limited partners liquidity, not because the assets have reached the right moment to sell, but rather because the Fund’s constitutional documents say so.

WHY THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FIT FOR AFRICA

Such a fixed timeline is a particularly poor fit for the kind of assets common across African PE, which are often held across several jurisdictions at once, each with its own regulator, exchange control regime, currency, and a pool of potential buyers, forcing that complexity to resolve on one calendar and in one process, regardless of which country’s market is actually receptive to a disposal at the Fund’s horizon. This mismatch can be compounded by the asset class itself. A large share of African PE activity is in infrastructure, where early years are absorbed by development and construction costs, gearing is typically high to fund that build-out, and cash flows only turn stable and distributable once the asset reaches operational maturity – a profile that rarely aligns with a fixed Fund clock.

There is growing optimism around dealmaking across the continent, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, expansion of investable opportunities, and more attractive entry valuations.1 However, this optimism often fades when it comes to exiting these assets. Given global uncertainty, the current backlog looks more like a slow unwind than a healthy, ongoing cycle, with a large share of it concentrated in infrastructure, energy and other long duration assets.

Perhaps the greatest weakness of the traditional Fund model is that time eventually dictates the sale. Once a Fund nears the end of its life, it becomes a known seller. Sophisticated buyers recognise this dynamic and understand that the seller’s need for liquidity may outweigh its ability to wait for the best price. The result is a gradual transfer of negotiating leverage to the buyer, even where the asset itself continues to grow in value. However, some Funds may mitigate these pressures by extending their lifespan or transferring assets into a PCV. Such measures are exceptions, rather than the norm, and usually require investor approval and careful structuring.

THE BENEFITS OF A PCV

A PCV offers a different set of benefits, precisely because it removes the fixed clock. Assets are held for as long as they continue to earn their place in the portfolio, rather than being sold on a schedule dictated by a Fund’s remaining life. Capital is recycled internally as distributions come in, redeployed into new opportunities or reinvested in existing assets, rather than being returned to limited partners and then re-raised, with all the fundraising drag and timing risk that entails.

Liquidity for investors is decoupled from any single sale event, since returns can flow through periodic distributions, partial realisations or secondary transactions in the vehicle itself, rather than depending on one disposal landing at the right time in the right market. Governance also shifts accordingly. As no exit deadlines force the sponsor’s hand, incentive structures and reporting cadences can be built around long-term value creation, rather than a countdown to realisation.

Taken together, a PCV is not a liquidity workaround dressed up in different packaging. It reflects a different ownership philosophy – one built for assets whose value is created over decades, rather than realised on a Fund’s timetable.

WHY NOW?

Two converging forces make this structure more than a theoretical proposition on the continent, given that (i) listed exit routes are becoming less reliable, and (ii) limited partners continue to cite exit unpredictability as their principal reservation.2 By way of an example, in 2024, a fund holding stakes in African energy, infrastructure, digital and aviation assets across multiple jurisdictions reached its investment horizon of fifteen years, at a time when multi-country sale processes would not have realised significant value for its limited partners. Rather than forcing a sale, the Fund’s managers, supported by PSG Capital, restructured the Fund into a PCV – Harith InfraCo – providing the Fund with an alternative exit strategy and materially benefitting limited partners. In recognition of its innovative structure and successful execution, the Harith InfraCo transaction was awarded the DealMakers 2024 Private Equity Deal of the Year award.

The sectors best suited for a PCV share a common profile across African markets, being (i) long duration, contracted cash flows, (ii) assets whose value compounds over a horizon longer than a typical Fund life, and (iii) assets and/or operations which span more than one jurisdiction. Infrastructure is a clear fit for PCVs, but energy, digital and healthcare platforms with similar cash flow and multi-country footprints would also benefit from a PCV structure. Given the scale of infrastructure development still required across the continent, PCVs are not a short-term trend. The pipeline of long duration, multi-jurisdictional infrastructure assets suited to a PCV structure should continue to grow, rather than taper off, over the medium to long-term.

IS A PCV A NICHE SOLUTION OR IS IT A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?

A PCV is not a replacement for a Fund; most PE assets benefit from the disciplined fixed horizon, with most investors not looking for an indefinite hold. But for specific growing African assets across the infrastructure, energy and healthcare sectors, with multiple jurisdictional footprints and a narrow universe of natural trade buyers, a Fund is not a discipline, but rather a liability forcing sales of assets at the wrong time, in markets that would benefit from being held long-term to realise value.

A PCV does not require stepping outside of PE. The PCV structure remains fit for PE, given the nature of the underlying entity; rather, the exit mechanism changes and not the underlying investment discipline. A PCV allows different investors – whether international DFIs, strategic or public market participants – to participate alongside conventional limited partners within the same structure. When the medium to long-term ambition is a public listing, a PCV can be built as a listing ready vehicle from the outset. The vehicle is not tied to a single exit route either. Depending on the nature of the underlying investments, different assets or portfolios within it can find alternative exit routes if required, without forcing the whole vehicle towards one outcome.

A PCV, is not, in itself, a panacea for the structural headwinds discussed above. However, it should be considered as part of the standard structuring toolkit when acquiring and holding assets across multiple jurisdictions, rather than being viewed as a solution of last resort when traditional Fund structures have exhausted their options in a particular market.

Harith InfraCo is proof that a PCV works at scale, spanning several African jurisdictions in a single platform, because the sponsor treated permanent capital as a genuine ownership philosophy rather than a liquidity workaround in challenging markets.

Finally, for the reader’s convenience, the table below summarises the key distinctions between the traditional Infrastructure PE Fund model and a PCV, bringing together the principal themes discussed in this article.

Mikayla Barker is a Corporate Financier | PSG Capital

This article first appeared in DealMakers AFRICA, the continent’s quarterly M&A publication.

DealMakers AFRICA is a quarterly M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

Why your dispute resolution clause is as critical as the deal itself

Jonathan Barnes and Samantha Mason
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Why your dispute resolution clause is as critical as the deal itself

The dispute resolution mechanisms in complex commercial agreements can be as important as the deal itself. Well thought-out dispute resolution mechanisms ensure strong safety nets that benefit the commercial interests of all parties to a transaction.

A dispute resolution clause in an agreement is more than a boilerplate provision; it is a critical risk allocation tool that deserves the same attention as the substantive terms of the agreement. A defective dispute resolution clause can have unintended and costly consequences, whereas a well-negotiated and carefully crafted clause saves costs, time and resources.

The clause should contain broad language that covers disputes ‘arising out of or relating to’ the agreement. This ensures it will apply to all possible issues relating to the contract’s formation, validity, performance, interpretation and termination. Non-contractual obligations, such as delict or misrepresentation, may also be included in the clause. A clear trigger notice, such as a formal ‘Dispute Notice’, should be included to start the clock on any dispute resolution procedural timelines.

Level of control

The level of control that should be exercised in the event of a dispute must also be considered. Parties should decide at the beginning of the transaction whether institutional (administered) arbitration or ad hoc (self-administered) arbitration is best suited to the transaction type and value.

Administered arbitration takes place under the rules and using the procedures of a particular organisation, which provides institutional oversight and structure. Some examples include the Arbitration Foundation of Southern Africa (AFSA), the London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA), or the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). In contrast, ad hoc proceedings, which commonly take place under the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Arbitration Rules, are flexible but need more active management by the parties and/or the appointed arbitral tribunal.

All parties must also be aware of their interim relief options. Arbitral tribunals and courts can act to protect a position before a final award is rendered, but the choice of forum and timing matter.

The cost and speed of arbitrations are another consideration. Parties to a transaction must take care when including a tiered dispute resolution clause that calls for escalating steps, such as negotiation, mediation or expert determination before arbitration. While these procedures can facilitate early dispute resolution and preserve relationships, each step must be clear and time-bound and should not be used to delay a referral to arbitration. The number of arbitrators, the venue, the applicable rules, and the appeal mechanisms all impact the duration and cost of the proceedings.

Seat of arbitration

The seat of the arbitration determines the procedural law governing the proceedings and the supervisory court. This, together with the nationality and expertise of the arbitrator(s), will have a significant bearing on the neutrality, or perceived neutrality, of the process.

South African courts are supportive of arbitration, and our country provides a reliable, pro-enforcement environment for international commercial disputes. It would be wise to consult jurisdiction-specific experts when considering other possible arbitration seats or when attempting to enforce an award in another jurisdiction.

Enforceability

An award that is issued in one party’s favour is only the first step; the enforcement of the award is critical. When negotiating a dispute resolution clause, bear in mind the legal frameworks, court attitudes and asset locations in each relevant jurisdiction. A key consideration is the location of the counterparty’s assets and if the chosen seat supports enforcement under the New York Convention. The Convention requires that its member states recognise and enforce foreign arbitral awards, ensuring they receive similar treatment to domestic awards.

Under the Convention, the grounds on which a court may refuse recognition and enforcement are limited, reinforcing the finality and cross-border reliability of international arbitration awards. The real question will then be how expansively local courts interpret these grounds and whether they adopt a pro-arbitration stance.

Final note

A commercial agreement is only as strong as its ability to survive a dispute. By treating a dispute resolution clause as a primary commercial term rather than a secondary legal requirement, businesses can ensure that if a dispute arises, it is considered a hurdle that may be overcome through procedural orderliness, rather than a deal-breaker.

Jonathan Barnes is a Partner and Samantha Mason a Senior Associate | Bowmans

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday | The economics of tourism in SA

Investec Focus Radio
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PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday | The economics of tourism in SA

Listen to the podcast here:

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South Africa’s growth challenge is shifting from reform to delivery. Tourism is part of that test.

International arrivals rose 12.3% in the first half of 2026. And phase III of the government-business Partnership now puts the sector firmly on the growth agenda, with a focus on air access, visas, safety and infrastructure.

On No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs and Investec economist Lara Hodes examine what it will take to turn that momentum into investment, jobs and sustained growth.

Listen to the full conversation to find out more. Read more on www.investec.com/now

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Stay invested; stay protected

Investec Structured Products
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Stay invested; stay protected

International Titans Basket Ltd provides diversified international equity exposure with built-in capital protection, helping investors navigate periods of heightened market volatility. This dollar-denominated listed share, promoted by Investec, offers a measured way to stay “in the game” while staying covered.

Investors entered 2026 hoping for greater stability, but volatility has remained a defining feature of markets. Investors have had to contend with sharp swings in sentiment driven by geopolitics, inflation concerns and shifting growth expectations. However – zooming out from daily shifts – the trendlines have been extraordinarily resilient.

In May, Reuters (citing LSEG data) reported that “stunning profit strength” was pushing US markets, writing: “…S&P 500 companies are on track for their highest quarterly earnings growth in more than four years.” By June, the S&P 500 had added 9% year to date, reports finance-specialist publication The Motley Fool. “For context,” they continue, “the S&P 500 had added less than 2% at this point in 2025”.

It hasn’t been a smooth upward journey, though. The same index slipped into almost correction territory in Q1, and by late June, Reuters writes: “Concerns around debt-backed spending by [AI] hyperscalers and ​mounting fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have fuelled the market downturn this week [24 June] that has erased more than $1 trillion in market value from the Nasdaq 100.”

Taking money off the table? A more measured perspective

CNN’s Fear-Greed index – used to gauge the mood of the market stock, what’s driving market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced – places fear firmly in the driver’s seat. We see the same nerves in retail investors. According to the Q2 2026 Quarterly Market Perceptions Study from Allianz, “just one in four (25%) Americans think it is a good time to invest in the market right now, down from 34% last quarter”. Some 62% report worrying that “a major recession is right around the corner”.

As the adage goes, ‘it’s not about timing the market, but about time in the market’. Periods of market volatility can tempt investors to reduce their exposure. However, reacting to panic can come at the expense of long-term investment outcomes. Hartford Funds produces annual research on the impact of mistiming and market exits. Their 2026 report – using Morningstar data of the S&P 500 Index 1996-2025 – finds that “76% of the stock market’s best days have occurred during a bear market or during the first two months of a bull market”.

Bloomberg data provides a similar insight into the effect of time invested, comparing cash (via money market account) to equity exposure (with the MSCI All Country World Index Net Total Return as proxy for equities). The graph below shows the value of $100 invested each year in global equities (total of $2,100 invested since April 2006). Even with the worst timing – buying at the highest point each year – the cumulative investment value of equities is higher than the return one would see having put $100 into a money market fund at the start of each year.

Building in resilience

A global investor insights survey from Schroders – conducted in Q2 – found 85% of respondents (wealth managers, intermediaries, and institutional investors) were expecting “greater market volatility in the next year”. These professionals were “building more resilience into their portfolios with a greater emphasis on diversification (84%) and downside protection (83%)”.

“Traditionally a 60/40 mix of equities and bonds was seen as an ‘all weather’ approach to building a balanced portfolio. Bonds have tended to perform in opposition to equities,” says James Cook, Investec Structured Product Specialist.  “But that’s less clear cut today. If we look at the data from 2022 onwards, global equities and global bonds seem to move in the same general direction. This begs the question whether a ‘traditional balanced portfolio’ provides sufficient diversification.”

Balancing exposure and safety nets

Structured products with capital protection and defined risk-return profiles offer a compelling diversification tool for investors and their clients, combining downside protection with greater certainty over investment outcomes.

International Titans Basket Ltd (ITBL) is a listed, Guernsey-incorporated company for which Investec Bank Limited acts as investment adviser – and is an example of one such structured product. Fully externalising the investment in USD, the company purchases financial instruments that create a structured product payoff profile for investors.

An investment in ITBL provides exposure to the growth of a broad-based basket of equity indices[1], and will return the growth of the index basket multiplied by a participation rate of 125%[2]. The index basket growth is capped at 40% – for a maximum return of 50% in USD (i.e., 40% x 125%). The term of the investment is five years and one month, with the potential to exit the investment early under normal market conditions.

With 100% capital protection[3] at maturity in USD, this offering reduces downside risk from future equity market shocks while providing a predefined return profile with capped upside participation.

Layered protections

ITBL achieves capital protection by investing in a credit-linked note issued by Investec Bank Ltd, with additional credit linkage to the subordinated Tier 2 debt of large international investment-grade banks. At maturity, the proceeds from this debt instrument are used to repay 100% of the company’s capital, irrespective of equity market performance. Capital is at risk only in the event of a default or credit event affecting the issuer or reference entities.

While risk cannot be eliminated, this structure replaces a portion of equity market risk with investment-grade credit risk, reducing downside equity exposure.

For more information, visit our website. Applications close on 16 October 2026 with a minimum investment amount of USD 14,000.

For full regulatory disclosures, please click here

Watch Japie Lubbe present key slides from the product presentation on YouTube:

Or listen to the podcast here:

  • [1] S&P 500 (35% weighting), Euro Stoxx 50 (25% weighting), Nikkei 225 (20% weighting), FTSE 100 (20% weighting), and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (10% weighting)

[2] The participation is dependent on market conditions on trade date (the current participation is 125%).

[3] Structured products provide capital protection through the assumption of credit risk. They are intended for sophisticated investors who understand this risk and are willing to take it. There is credit risk on the debt issuer, each reference entity (the credit risk relates to the subordinated debt issued by such reference entities), and the equity investment provider(s). A default by any such party(ies) may cause the value of such investment of the company to be reduced or to become zero, which may adversely affect the share price or cause the share to become worthless.

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