Naspers looks to enhance accessibility for a broader base of investors
“The market price of Naspers shares has increased significantly in recent years. Naspers N Ordinary Shares currently trade at one of the highest prices per share on the JSE, significantly exceeding the average price per share of constituents of the JSE Top 40 Index.”
Naspers
Naspers has announced to shareholders that in line with the resolutions adopted at the recent Annual General Meeting, the company will be undertaking a five-for-one share subdivision. This is commonly known as a stock split.
There is no change to the economic interest or voting rights of Naspers N ordinary shareholders. In these situations, there are simply more shares in issue than before without any change to the underlying business, which means that the share price adjusts accordingly and the market cap is unchanged (all else being equal).
Naspers values the Ghost Mail reader base and has thus included the entire announcement below for ease of reference:
Capital Appreciation remains a tale of two divisions (JSE: CTA)
Don’t forget that the name of the group is changing soon
Capital Appreciation Limited is changing its name to Araxi Limited. The new JSE code will be JSE: AXX. This is the ancient Greek word for river, with the company noting that rivers represent continuous forward motion. Rivers do also dry up sometimes, but I don’t think that will be the case for this group based on their underlying momentum.
In an update for the six months to September 2025, the performance seems to once again be one of significant divergence across the two segments. The Payments division has continued with its terminal sales growth and interesting diversification initiatives, while the Software division is struggling with project conversion below the desired level.
They’ve worked hard to get the Software business right and these things unfortunately do take time, with some green shoots visible in terms of major contract awards in the financial services space. They are hoping to return to previous levels of performance in the Software business by 2027.
Other notable insights from the announcement include a reminder of the strength of the group balance sheet (there’s no debt), as well as the annuity nature of revenue in the Payments division (more than half of income and still growing). There are a number of new business initiatives across products like MicroPOS, Halo Dot and an Android device aimed at merchants in lower-tier markets as part of the digitisation of the lower-income economy.
Of course, they couldn’t help but include a playful comment on AI, noting that if you remove “rax” from Araxi, you’re left with AI. One wonders if that’s a sign of things to come in the corporate branding!
Results will be released around 2 December.
Greencoat Renewables had a tough interim period (JSE: GCT)
Wind is unfortunately a volatile resource
As fans of fossil fuels will tell you, renewable energy is a noble pursuit that does come with volatility. If you burn coal, then you know what the outcome of that process will be. If you need the wind to blow, then nature will determine how much power you make. It’s why most sensible people have realised that both are valuable resources in this world.
At Greencoat Renewables, as the name suggests, you won’t find any fossil fuels. This means that there will be periods when the wind just doesn’t blow as much as usual, like in the six months to June 2025 when the wind resource led to power generation that was 15% below budget. This has a knock-on effect on the net asset value (NAV) per share, which has decreased 8.6% based on reductions in wind resource budgets.
The group generated cash of €68.7 million, nearly 40% lower than the prior year. Due to the significant dividend cover, they’ve managed to still hit the full year dividend target, albeit with cover of 1.8x instead of 3.0x.
In terms of positives, the balance sheet is in decent shape overall and the company is signing contracts to provide power to data centres in Europe. There’s also a reduction in management fees in an effort to improve shareholder returns.
Naspers is doing a share split (JSE: NPN)
This is expected to align the price more closely with Prosus (JSE: PRX)
When a share price becomes very high (i.e. the price per share in absolute terms), companies consider using share splits as a way to make the shares easier for people to invest in. The most famous example of this not happening is Berkshire Hathaway’s A shares, which trade at an outrageous $736k per share! Owning one of those is a financial life goal in and of itself. In case you’re wondering, there’s a B share in Berkshire Hathaway that is a lot more attainable.
As for Naspers, the current share price is R5,892 per share. That’s certainly not in any danger of taking away Berkshire’s crown, but it’s high by South African standards and well above the Prosus share price. Naspers has decided that they don’t like the optics of this and they want to enhance accessibility, hence the decision to do a five-for-one stock split (or “share subdivision”) in which each holder of a Naspers N share will hold five shares instead of one.
All else being equal, this means the share price would trade at 20% of current levels. It doesn’t affect the Naspers market cap, as the number of shares in issue will be 5x higher.
Naspers values the Ghost Mail audience and they have included the full announcement here for ease of reference.
Fish oil prices took the tide out for Oceana (JSE: OCE)
Such is life in primary agriculture: sensitivity to global prices
Oceana released a trading statement for the year ending 30 September 2025. Kudos to management – this kind of early warning is exactly what a trading statement is for!
They expect HEPS to decrease by at least 40% for the period, with US dollar fish oil sales prices having halved from the record prices in the prior year. This is because the Peruvian anchovy biomass has recovered, which means supply of fish oil increased and prices corrected. In other words, HEPS fell from what were clearly unsustainable levels.
The group has also given a detailed update for the 11 months to August. It includes a note that Lucky Star only managed flat canned fish volumes locally in an environment of consumer pressure. You know it’s time for interest rates to come down when people can’t afford pilchards! Export demand was up, taking overall volumes 1% higher and allowing Oceana to improve operating margins. Inventory closed in line with the prior period.
Fishmeal and Fish Oil (USA) saw an 11% improvement in sales volumes thanks to improved landings and the heightened level of opening inventory. Sadly, this is where the impact of US dollar fish oil sales prices was really felt, so Daybrook’s earnings were “considerably lower” than before.
Wild Caught Seafood enjoyed a better performance in hake (sales volumes up 30% and European prices were higher), as well as the horse mackerel business in South Africa. Horse mackerel in Namibia was disappointing due to catch rates. Squid also struggled with catch rates.
Detailed results are due for release on 24 November 2025.
As for the share price, the past 5 years have looked like something that would get surfers excited:
OUTsurance released fantastic results (JSE: OUT)
Australia was the star of the show, which isn’t something you’ll see very often for South African companies
OUTsurance has released results for the year ended June 2025. To say they had an incredible year would be an understatement, with normalised earnings up 33.7% and the full year ordinary dividend up 36.2%. There’s even a special dividend as the icing on the cake!
These numbers were driven by the combination of factors that short-term insurers love seeing: solid growth in gross written premium (up 16.8% in Property and Casualty) and an improvement in the claims ratio from 56.8% to 53.6%, which means underwriting margins improved.
The increase in operating losses in OUTsurance Ireland from R218 million to R448 million is because they are busy incubating that business. Instead of throwing money at an acquisition, OUTsurance is doing things the “hard” way with short-term pain and long-term gain. After all, their Australian business is a perfect example of the benefit of building from scratch, as OUTsurance is one of the only South African corporates to have truly made a success of an Australian expansion.
It’s been a great year for the short-term insurance industry and OUTsurance is almost a pure-play in that space, which explains the 7% jump in the share price on the day of release and the 52% increase over the past 12 months!
Sirius raises €105 million in debt (JSE: SRE)
Debt raises are just as important as equity raises
Sirius Real Estate, like practically all property funds, takes advantage of the benefits of financial leverage. This means using debt to boost return on equity. The property sector is perfect for this as the properties themselves are appealing security for lenders and the underlying cash flows are linked to leases, which makes them contractual in nature.
Now, there are many ways to raise debt, including the most obvious solution which is to just phone the bank. For larger funds like Sirius that do regular acquisitions and thus need access to lines of capital, note programmes are a great way to spread the funding risk and attract a variety of institutional debt investors. Another useful feature of a note programme (depending how it is structured) is the use of tap issues, which means raising additional debt capital under the terms of an existing programme.
This is how Sirius has raised €105 million in new notes on the same terms as the existing €359.9 million 1.75% bonds due in November 2028. You may be wondering about that strange number (the capital value, not the interest rate!) – this is actually the second time they are tapping the programme, having raised €59.9 million in May 2024 after the initial issue of €300 million in 2021.
Sirius will use the proceeds for the pipeline of potential acquisitions in Germany and the UK, as well as general corporate purposes. If there’s one company that knows how to find acquisition opportunities and deploy capital, it’s this one.
Southern Sun adds to the positive hospitality narrative (JSE: SSU)
The prepared comments at the AGM are helpful
Southern Sun hosted its AGM and released the prepared comments on SENS, giving us another example today of good disclosure to investors. Importantly, for the first five months of the financial year ending March 2026 (i.e. for April to August 2025), the South African occupancy rate improved by 160 basis points to 59.2%.
It gets better. This uptick in occupancy been accompanied by the average room rate increasing by 6.7% over the period, so room revenue growth came in at an impressive 9.7%. We recently saw City Lodge (JSE: CLH) indicate strong growth in the past couple of months, so there’s an overall improvement in this sector that is exciting to see.
The offshore segment has a very different story to tell unfortunately, with the Paradise Sun in Seychelles having been closed for a major refurbishment. This obviously skews the numbers, with occupancy of just 33.4% vs. 46.5% in the comparable period. The hotel has now reopened and they obviously expect strong trading from the newly renovated facility. There’s unfortunately no good reason why trading has been subdued in Mozambique and Tanzania, so that is having a negative impact on performance that probably won’t magically go away in the next few months.
Once you combine the local and international performance, you get a slight uptick in occupancy rate from 57.1% to 57.8%, with average room rates up 4.0% and overall room revenue growth of 6.4%.
Room revenue is only part of the story, with evening and conferences as another important driver. Thanks to strong demand in that space, the South African business grew EBITDAR (but we don’t know by how much). That’s not a typo by the way – EBITDAR is the industry standard metric in hospitality. They aren’t explicit regarding group earnings, but the narrative suggests that group profits may have dipped due to various factors like the losses at Paradise Sun and major IT costs.
Importantly, the group has a strong balance sheet and can pursue the current expansion pipeline without impacting the cash being returned to shareholders (both share buybacks and dividends).
I think that this is a chart worth keeping an eye on:
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
There have been some interesting trades in shares of Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN) by the CEO. He sold shares worth around R10.9 million in the market and also took profit of R2.7 million on a CFD position. That’s a significant disposal after a sharp rally in the share price, but a small portion of his overall exposure.
A non-executive director of South32 (JSE: S32) bought shares worth just over R3 million.
The group COO of Spar (JSE: SPP) bought shares worth R493k.
An associate of a major subsidiary of WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC) sold shares worth R480k.
An associate of the chairperson of KAP (JSE: KAP) bought shares worth R149k.
The offer for Renergen (JSE: REN) by ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) had a fulfilment date for conditions of 30 September 2025. They think they might still get that right, but they’ve taken the step of extending the date out to 28 November 2025 just in case. There are a number of difficult approvals already out of the way, like the Competition Commission. This has freed them up to start working on the integration plan while the rest of the conditions are met.
If you’re keen to learn more about AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG), then you can check out a presentation that the company is using at two major conferences. You’ll find it on this page under “recent presentations” on the left.
Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) released their integrated annual report and AGM notice, as well as something that investors don’t like seeing: a “change statement” regarding the financials. This is a rare thing on the market in which something has changed in the financials in the period between their announcement and the publication of the annual report. There are numerous changes to the numbers, ranging from balance sheet items (understandable given the recently announced capital restructuring) through to reallocations of cost of sales (that’s hard to understand). The headline loss per share is 33.82 cents instead of the 31.95 cents initially reported.
MultiChoice (JSE: MCG) announced that the reorganisation of the South African operations has begun, as all the conditions for the transactions have been met. These transactions are necessary to meet the various regulatory conditions for the Canal+ deal. This has particular relevance for shareholders in the Phuthuma Nathi structure.
Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) announced that financial director Edward Beale has stepped down from that role and will immediately become the chairman of the board to replace Rory Kerr. This means they need a lead independent director, with Dean Douglas taking that role. Heidi Koegelenberg has been promoted to the financial director role.
Accelerate Property Fund finds a buyer for 73 Hertzog Boulevard (JSE: APF)
This disposal is at a discount to NAV
The Accelerate Property Fund share price is fascinating at the moment. The company is trading at a gigantic discount to net asset value (NAV) per share, as there are a number of share price overhangs (like the related party issue). This means that if the entire NAV was converted to cash tomorrow and distributed to shareholders, the returns would be wonderful.
Now, converting a NAV to cash isn’t easy. There are no plans to sell Fourways Mall, so a full “value unlock” isn’t the strategy right now. But what Accelerate is doing is offloading as many other properties as it can.
Here’s the thing that the market is responding quite strangely to: if you sell a property at a discount to NAV, then it can still be at a premium to the implied value based on where the share price is trading. Using a simple example, if the NAV is R100 and the share price is R40, then converting the NAV to cash of R80 is a 20% discount to NAV and a 100% uptick in value for shareholders! It’s not quite that simple obviously as the fund would still trade at a slight discount to even its cash NAV, but you hopefully get the idea.
In the case of 73 Hertzog Boulevard, Accelerate has sold the property for R68 million. They need to pay sales commission of 3% and some other costs, so they are looking at R66 million in net proceeds. The valuation as at March 2025 was R78 million. Net of costs, that’s roughly a 15% discount to NAV. There are some very good property companies on the JSE that trade at a higher discount than that. Accelerate trades at a discount to NAV of 80%, so you would expect the market to celebrate this update.
Instead, the share price dropped 12% on the day on strong volumes (by Accelerate’s standards). The key seems to be the Portside circular and getting that deal across the line, as I think the market is concerned that the small deals are getting done and the Portside circular has been delayed.
Ascendis Health wants to delist (JSE: ASC)
This time, the company wants to do it itself
You may recall a lot of social media activity and accusations flying all over the place the last time that Ascendis Health was trying to delist from the market. That time around, the potential delisting was structured as an offer to shareholders by a consortium of parties (including related parties). The price at the time was R0.80 a share.
That was back in November 2023, almost two years ago. We are now at a point where the company is considering a delisting via a repurchase of shares, which means the delisting is achieved through the use of the company’s balance sheet rather than an offer from a third party.
A cautionary announcement tells us that this delisting will be priced at R0.97 a share. Although that’s 21% higher than the previous offer, you have to think about the cost of capital over nearly a two-year period. Viewed through that lens, this offer is actually quite similar to the previous one.
The share price closed nearly 10% higher on the day at R0.90. Now we wait and see if the cautionary evolves into a firm plan to do this.
Revenue growth is hard to find at Caxton & CTP Publishers and Printers (JSE: CAT)
Kudos to management: operating profit was up in both major segments
Caxton closed 5.6% higher after releasing results that reflect a 16.7% increase in the dividend. Based on that growth, you might be expecting to see an exciting revenue outcome. Instead, revenue was up by just 0.9%! The good news is that operating costs increased by only 0.1%, so this revenue growth was sufficient to drive an improvement to operating profit in both major segments.
In Caxton’s publishing, printing and distribution business, they continued to suffer a decline in advertising revenues. Advertising was down 3%, with grocery retailers keeping local newspapers going. Encouragingly, The Citizen newspaper managed to grow revenue by 3%, with the focus on the Legal Notice market paying off (literally). Overall, Caxton has to manage a difficult treadmill in which newspaper tonnages at the printing plants are under pressure, mitigated by the volumes that Caxton is winning from retailers. Magazines are just as bad if not worse, with Caxton hoping that the education book demand from the proposed Foundation Phase curriculum rewrite will be in place for the start of the 2026 school year. As we know in South Africa, depending on government for anything is a risky strategy.
Moving on to the packaging and stationery business, Caxton has difficult underlying exposures to the alcohol industry. We know that the global trend at the moment is one of reduced consumption, so that’s something to think about over the long term. To add to the questions around structural demand, they also have a cigarette packaging operation. Thankfully, they also have exposure to quick service restaurants and the FMCG sector. These might be more cyclical industries, but they arguably have better structural demand opportunities.
Speaking of structural challenges, Caxton also has a stationery division that operates in the back-to-school space. The birth rate (and the recent news around Curro (JSE: COH) being taken private) tells us that this is also going to be a low-growth area.
As you can see, nothing comes easy at Caxton. They therefore have to focus on cost control and being as efficient as possible, something they seem to have done really well in this period.
If you work through the underlying results, you’ll see that HEPS fell by 8.8% without any normalisation adjustments. This is because of a non-recurring insurance receipt in the base period that was recognised as income. If you normalise for that, then HEPS was up 12.0%. The increase in the dividend tells us that the normalised number has high cash quality of earnings, so I’m happy to go with that.
As year-to-date share price charts go, this is quite a thing:
Gemfields executed its first emerald auction since November 2024 (JSE: GML)
They seem to be happy with the outcome
The challenge with gemstones is that their value is as much a function of their flaws and non-homogenous nature as anything else. This makes it really hard to compare the trend in auctions at Gemfields, as the underlying mix of quality is always different. This is just an unfortunate reality of the sector and it makes things trickier for investors.
One thing we know for sure is that emeralds have been in a bad place, with Gemfields having last held an auction in November 2024. They then suspended the mining operations at Kagem in January 2025 based on weak supply and demand dynamics in the market. Mining recommenced in May and they’ve now gone back to market with the first auction in nearly a year!
Thankfully, they sold all the lots including a particularly fancy gemstone named Imboo. The fact that individual stones have names tells you just how difficult it is to track any kind of trend in this space.
Management seems happy with the outcome, talking about “strong demand” and “robust prices” that “validated” the decisions they’ve taken. In the context of all the caveats I’ve provided here about comparing auctions, the price per carat tells us that this auction was way ahead of November 2024 (41% better pricing) and roughly in line with auctions in mid-2023 and mid-2024.
The Gemfields share price is down 11% year-to-date. It’s worth noting that there was a rights issue a few months ago that had a negative impact on the share price. It has recovered quite well from the mid-year pressure related to that capital raise though! The latest auction results can only help.
Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust’s dividend is higher than its earnings (JSE: SCD)
Unsurprisingly, the market didn’t love this
Schroder European Real Estate announced a dip in quarterly earnings due to the sale of the Frankfurt DIY asset in the previous quarter. This unfortunately means that the quarterly dividend was only 90% covered by adjusted EPRA earnings (the European standard). Or, put differently, the payout ratio is more than 100%! This obviously cannot carry on forever, so the market is quite correctly being cautious here.
A much bigger risk to the dividend is the ongoing tax fight in France, where the French Tax Authority has demanded the payment of €14.2 million including interest and penalties. The group will appeal this decision and has not raised a provision, but they are ring-fencing this amount from cash reserves.
With the share price closing 6.9% lower on the day, the market is clearly concerned about what the forward dividend yield will look like. The underlying portfolio was valued at roughly the same level as the previous quarter, so there also hasn’t been any recent capital growth to get excited about.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
The CEO of Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) sold shares worth R2.46 million.
Shareholders in Fortress Real Estate (JSE: FFB) are being given the choice to either receive a cash dividend or a dividend in specie of shares in NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP). This is in line with the recent approach taken by Fortress regarding creatives uses for its 15.2% stake in NEPI Rockcastle.
Altvest Capital (JSE: ALV) will start trading under its new name Africa Bitcoin Corporation from Tuesday 23rd September. The new share code is JSE: BAC and the underlying preference shares will also all change their stock codes.
Kore Potash (JSE: KP2) released its interim financials for the six months to June 2025. As an exploration company, the progress made on developing the project is usually more important than the specifics of the financials. The company is still in the process of finalising the funding package with OWI-RAMS GMBH, with full focus on moving towards financial close. The company had a cash and cash equivalents balance of $3.5 million as at 30 June 2025.
Sony Pictures went into the summer of 2025 hungry for a blockbuster. What it got instead was a bruising reminder that timing, contracts, and a little bit of bad luck can rewrite the rules of Hollywood.This is the story of megahit KPop Demon Hunters and a tale of how different risk cultures at Sony and Netflix led to this outcome.
By the time the popcorn buckets were swept up and the box office receipts were tallied, Sony stood alone as the only major studio without a single $500 million–grossing film from May through August this year (this timeline coincides with the US summer, which is traditionally when cinemas make the most money). Its biggest box office hit of the year so far, 28 Years Later, limped tojust over $150 million worldwide. For Sony, the countdown to their next big release – 2026’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day – can’t tick by fast enough.
Although technically, Sony actually did make one of the biggest cultural sensations of the summer. It’s just inconvenient that Netflix is feasting on most of the spoils.
A monster hit, but for the “wrong” company
The film in question is KPop Demon Hunters, an anime-style, neon-drenched, $100 million animated musical about a K-pop trio who moonlight as supernatural monster fighters. In almost any other era, this would have been Sony’s dream: a franchise with built-in sequel potential, crossover music sales, and Halloween costume dominance. But despite Sony writing, making, and producing the thing, it belongs almost entirely to Netflix.
Released globally (and exclusively) on the streamer in June, Demon Hunters has been unstoppable. As it stands at time of writing this article, the film has racked up 291.5 million views, cementing its spot at No. 1 on Netflix’s all-time Top 10 list for English-language films and dethroning Red Notice as Netflix’s most-watched original film ever.
And it’s not just the movie – remember, this is a musical, so there are musicians involved too. The soundtrack, featuring both the fictional band HUNTR/X and the real-world K-pop powerhouse who voiced them, Twice, has taken on a life of its own. Seven songs currently sit inSpotify’s global Top 50, and “Golden,” the breakout anthem, has spent 11 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100.
Netflix, after more than a decade of trial and error in animation, finally has its megahit. If you listen carefully, you can hear the sound of Mickey Mouse quaking in his little boots.
Sony – the blood, sweat and tears behind it all – will make about $20 million from the deal, which is less than some stars pocket for appearing in Netflix originals. And while the studio does retain the rights to produce sequels or spinoffs, it gets no back-end upside from the first film’s runaway success. In other words, Sony did the work, and Netflix gets the empire.
How did Sony let this one slip?
To answer that question, we need to look all the way back to the pandemic-era dealmaking of 2021 (how does that already feel like a lifetime ago?). At the time, theaters were shuttered or running at reduced capacity, the future of cinema was uncertain, and every studio without its own streaming platform was scrambling to stay afloat.
Sony didn’t have a mass-market streamer of its own – no Disney+, no Max, no Peacock. What it had instead was a relatively solid filmmaking reputation and the option to sell its content to the highest bidder. That year, Sony inked a lucrative “Pay One” output deal with Netflix, covering theatrical films after their box office runs. Alongside it, the studio signed a separate “direct-to-platform” agreement: Netflix would get a first look at certain projects, with a guarantee to greenlight a set number of them for direct release.
Of the films that Netflix chose, Sony would receive the production budget plus a premium (i.e. profit margin) – typically about 25 percent, capped at $20 million. Netflix would own the rights outright, with no obligation to share profits or renegotiate.
Back then, it looked like a smart hedge. Theatrical grosses were shaky, layoffs loomed, and Sony needed reliable cash flow, pronto. Movies like Greyhound (sold to Apple) and The Mitchells vs. the Machines (sold to Netflix) found audiences outside of cinemas while boosting Sony’s bottom line. Even if a breakout occurred, the thinking went, the studio had guaranteed income during a turbulent era.
No one – least of all Sony – predicted that KPop Demon Hunters would be that breakout, four years after the pandemic.
Could it have worked in theaters?
Of course the billion-dollar question at this point has to be whether KPop Demon Hunters would have been a global hit if Sony had kept it for itself and released it in theatres instead.
The case for yes: the movie is a genre mashup with global appeal, featuring an anime aesthetic, a built-in K-pop fanbase, and music with real commercial traction. By the time “Golden” hit No. 1, Sony could have been printing money off concert tie-ins, merchandising, and spin-offs. A theatrical launch might have been modest at first, but could have snowballed into a full-on franchise as the earworm-quality of the songs took effect. In other words, Sony may have seen slow uptake on the first movie, but once audiences were hooked, they would have been minting it with every sequel.
The case for no: original animation has been a tough sell at the post-Covid box office. With the exception of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and its sequel, anime-style projects rarely draw mainstream audiences in large numbers. Netflix’s algorithm-driven environment may have been the perfect incubator, offering slow build, viral chatter, and music-driven discovery. In theaters, Demon Hunters might have opened soft, played well in Asian territories, and then gone on to explode in streaming anyway.
Netflix might have been the right place at the right time. But that doesn’t soften the sting for Sony.
The Netflix playbook pays off
Netflix has spent years trying to crack animation, with mostly middling results. KPop Demon Hunters gives it more than just a hit movie – it gives it a virtual band with millions of fans worldwide. And unlike real-world pop idols, movie band HUNTR/X won’t age out of their prime, demand renegotiated contracts, or enlist for mandatory military service (looking at you, BTS).
Better still, the cast behind the voices aren’t A-list stars with big bargaining power. Netflix owns the music, the characters, and the momentum. Sequels are already inevitable, and this time the streamer doesn’t need to pay Sony for the rights.
It’s the stuff every studio boss dreams of: a relatively cheap hit that spawns multiple revenue streams, from music to merchandise to future films. The upside for Netflix really is nearly limitless.
No risk, no reward
Sony has long argued that it “won” the streaming wars by refusing to launch its own platform. Unlike Warner Bros. or Disney, it didn’t pour billions into trying to beat Netflix at its own game. Instead, it played the middleman, selling films to whichever streamer paid most. That strategy insulated Sony from the streaming bloodbath, which meant no ballooning subscriber-acquisition costs, no shareholder fury, and no need to explain billion-dollar losses to shareholders.
But the KPop Demon Hunters saga shows the downside of being the arms dealer. Sometimes you sell the weapon that wins the war, and someone else plants the flag.
In the end, KPop Demon Hunters is a parable about timing, contracts, and the unpredictable alchemy of hits. In 2021, selling to Netflix looked like a safe bet – keep the lights on, avoid layoffs, hedge against a wobbly theatrical landscape. In 2025, it looks like Sony accidentally sold off the crown jewels. And Hollywood, never one to pass up a narrative, will keep asking the same question: What if Sony had just taken the risk and released KPop Demon Hunters itself?
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.
We begin with a year-to-date chart for City Lodge Hotels, reflecting a rather sad and sorry tale of a market that stopped believing in SA Inc:
Some of the metrics looked pretty bleak in the interim earnings, like occupancy rates. But with the release of full-year earnings, there’s been a significant improvement in the second half of the financial year. Even more importantly, the first couple of months of the new financial year are telling a much better story.
For the year ended June 2025, City Lodge increased revenue by 3% thanks to pricing increases that offset a 200 basis points decrease in the occupancy rate to 56%. HEPS for the year was down 0.3%. Adjusted HEPS, which takes out the impact of things like forex, was up 9%. As always, the dividend is a better indication of which HEPS number to focus on, with no increase at all in the dividend for the year.
This was a year of significant investment in refurbishments of hotels, as well as a refreshed website that they must be very proud of because it made the cut as a highlight of their capex programme in the announcement! I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. Presumably, the website wasn’t cheap. More importantly, they took advantage of the weaker share price by repurchasing shares worth R30 million.
The refurbishments do take some rooms out of commission, but I somehow doubt that this is the reason for the dip in occupancy. There’s still a demand problem, especially as City Lodge doesn’t really appeal to international inbound travellers in the same way that Southern Sun (JSE: SSU) does. The important thing is that occupancy was down 400 basis points for the first half of the year, so ending the year down 200 basis points reflects a decent recovery in the second half.
The food and beverage part of the business has been a major strategic push in recent years and the company has done a great job in that regard. This segment grew revenue by 8% for the year and now accounts for 20% of total revenue (up from 19% in the prior year).
With a tough revenue story, it’s really valuable that the company managed to keep cost growth at just 4%. This did wonders for protecting profitability.
We now get to the particularly good news: July and August 2025 saw an uptick in occupancy of 400 basis points year-on-year. Food and beverage revenues jumped by 16% and 14% for July and August respectively. To add to this, the group is now debt free.
Perhaps it’s time for that share price chart to start heading back into the green?
An ugly day for the Discovery share price (JSE: DSY)
And this was despite strong earnings
The market can be such an unforgiving place. Discovery tanked 9.5% on a day in which it released earnings that showed HEPS growth of 30% for the year ended June 2025. But how can that be?
The concern definitely isn’t a metric like annualised return on opening embedded value, which increased from 13.2% to 15.7%. The final dividend per share was up by a juicy 31%, so it isn’t that either. And as we already know from Discovery’s detailed recent trading update, Discovery Bank achieved breakeven in the second half of the financial year, which is ahead of plan.
A particularly fun fact about Discovery Bank is that 65% of their new clients don’t have any other Discovery products. This isn’t just a cross-sell model. If anything, it’s a helpful funnel to bring new clients into the broader group.
Word on the street is that expected future profit from insurance contracts could be the issue for the share price, with a concern around margins going forwards. I’m certainly not an expert on this sector, so I can’t say for sure whether this is what drove the drop in the share price. Something that did jump out at me is a decline in new business in Discovery Life, a key source of bringing new clients into the Discovery ecosystem.
Despite this, the group’s growth ambition is earnings growth of 12.5% – 17.5% per annum in Discovery South Africa from FY25 to FY29, along with 20% – 30% per annum in Vitality over that period. Those are lofty goals, helped along by Discovery Bank now being on the exciting part of the J Curve.
If there’s any criticism to be levelled here, it’s that whoever did these charts needs a tough talk about the use of the y-axis:
Either that, or it’s done on purpose to make the volatility seem much lower than it actually is. I’ll let you decide whether this is a happy accident or a deliberate distortion of the charts.
FirstRand’s UK issue is but a scratch m’lord (JSE: FSR)
Group earnings grew by 10% and guidance looks fantastic
FirstRand has been dealing with a nasty headache in the UK motor finance industry. There’s been a lot of regulatory noise around commissions paid to dealers. FirstRand recognised a provision of R3 billion in the prior year and they’ve increased that provision by R2.7 billion in the year ended June 2025. They’ve also spent R253 million in legal and professional fees on the matter in the past year (an actual cash outflow, not just a provision).
Despite this significant cost, FirstRand still managed to grow normalised earnings and HEPS by 10%. Normalised return on equity was 20.2%, which means they are still one of the best performing financial services groups in South Africa and certainly the pick of the legacy banks in terms of underlying business quality, which is why FirstRand has been trading at a premium valuation for as long as I can remember.
Cash quality of earnings is strong, with the dividend up 12%.
There was a small uptick in the credit loss ratio, attributed to various factors including “early emerging strain” in the SME book within FNB Commercial. Those interest rate cuts really need to come now, although the retail book actually seems to be in good shape.
Surprisingly, the rest of Africa wasn’t great for FirstRand in this period, bucking the trend we’ve seen elsewhere. FNB Africa grew earnings by 5% and RMB was down 2% as reported, or up 8% and 5% in constant currency respectively.
The star performer was WesBank, with earnings up by 20%. It only contributes 6% of group earnings though. RMB was also solid, with earnings up 10% and a contribution to the group numbers of 26%. If you look through all the segments, the major source of earnings uplift was at the centre, which means areas like endowment and group capital management. Banks are complicated things.
We see this come through again in the note on net interest income, which increased by 6%. The capital endowment benefit was up 14% thanks to the asset and liability management strategies that they use, while they also increased both deposits and loans to customers. Interestingly, they note subdued demand for mortgages, with growth up just 3%. South Africans are buying cars, not houses. Further bucking the trend in the sector, net interest margin also improved (by 6 basis points) thanks to the mix effect of underlying loans.
On the non-interest revenue side, income grew by 6%. Insurance was a particular highlight, up 9%. Unsurprisingly, as we’ve seen everywhere else in the sector, short-term insurance was the major driver.
In RMB, it was advisory fees that really did well, along with realisations of private equity assets. Trading income fell by 27%, so again the benefit of having various sources of revenue is on full display.
Looking ahead to the new financial year, FirstRand expects high single-digit growth in net interest income, which is impressive. The credit loss ratio is expected to remain at the bottom of the through-the-cycle range. Non-interest revenue growth is expected to be in the low- to mid-teens, which would be excellent. They expect cost growth below inflation, which then translates into normalised earnings growth in the “high mid-teens” in their words. Return on equity is expected to be at the upper end of the range of 18% to 22%.
It’s little wonder that the share price closed 6.4% higher based on such strong guidance!
Lesaka Technologies guides a strong FY26 (JSE: LSK)
They just have an awkward accounting restatement to deal with
The unfortunate thing about the markets is that people don’t always read properly. When an announcement talks about an accounting restatement, far too many people just panic and head for the exit as sentiment deteriorates. At Lesaka Technologies, there is indeed a restatement of the past few quarters, but revenue will go up in that restatement rather than down. This relates to agent vs. principal accounting and the split between revenue and cost of goods sold. The TL;DR is that there’s no impact on net profit, so my read is that it’s really just a storm in a teacup that is more a function of accounting complexities than anything else.
If we focus on the fourth quarter earnings that bring FY25 to a close, we find that net revenue was up 47% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 61%. That’s encouraging margin expansion, although the same isn’t true for the full year where revenue was up 38% and adjusted EBITDA increased by “only” 33%.
If you look at the net loss without adjustments for the year, you’ll find a gigantic loss of $87.5 million. This is primarily because of $49.3 million in post-tax negative charges related to the sale of MobiKwik. Adjusted profits are a better way to assess maintainable performance, but investors also shouldn’t gloss over situations where assets were sold at a loss, even if they were considered non-core.
Looking ahead, the guidance for FY26 is adjusted EBITDA growth of at least 35%. They are also introducing adjusted earnings per share as a metric (like all technology companies love to do), with an expectation for this to at least double. Notably, the guidance excludes the Bank Zero acquisition.
The market didn’t love this, perhaps because of the revenue restatements. The share price closed 6.9% lower on the day, taking the year-to-date drop to 23%.
Mantengu looks to acquire New Salt Rock City, giving control of a PGM tailings business (JSE: MTU)
They need to be careful with how they’ve structured this
Mantengu announced the acquisition of 100% of New Salt Rock City, which owns 60% of Kilken Platinum. In turn, Kilken Platinum owns 70% of the Kilken Imbani Joint Venture. In other words, this structure means that Mantengu will ultimately control the joint venture (subject to any unusual terms of that agreement that we aren’t privy to), but will only have 42% economic exposure (60% x 70%).
The Kilken Imbani Joint Venture treats the tailings from the Amandelbult platinum mine owned by Valterra Platinum (JSE: VAL). The joint venture acquires the PGM rich tailings from the mine, processes them and then sells them back to the mine.
For some reason, the announcement says they will issue shares to New Salt Rock City, which doesn’t make any sense as that’s the entity they are acquiring. I’m sure they mean that shares will be issued to the seller of that business, being the Lutzkie Besigheids Trust. It will be done in such a way that the seller will have less than 35% in Mantengu and thus won’t trigger a mandatory offer, which means there’s a cash component as well. There’s no indication yet of how it will be funded.
The price also hasn’t been announced yet, as this will be established during the due diligence. All we have to work with is a valuation from back in 2020 that values the joint venture at R4.4 billion. Inexplicably, the last set of audited financials for the joint venture was from 2019! Sigh.
We haven’t even gotten to the weirdest part yet. The CEO and CFO of Mantengu Mining will be appointed to the board of Kilken immediately upon execution of the term sheet i.e. before any of the deal conditions are met and before the price has even been agreed. They better hope that there isn’t a Competition Commission approval requirement for this deal, as one of the core elements of competition law is that you cannot behave as though the deal is done before it is actually approved by the regulator. I’m no legal expert, but it’s hard to see how a director appointment wouldn’t be in breach of that. Perhaps things have changed since my advisory days a decade ago, but I doubt it.
The due diligence period will last for three months, with the CEO and CFO being directors of a company that they wouldn’t even have done a due diligence on. That’s certainly not a risk I would personally take.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
A non-executive director of two major subsidiaries of MTN (JSE: MTN) – and more importantly, the group COO) – sold shares worth a meaty R14 million. That’s a large disposal after a strong rally in the price.
A director of SPAR (JSE: SPP) bought shares worth R748k.
A director of a major subsidiary of PBT Group (JSE: PBG) bought shares worth almost R500k.
Barloworld (JSE: BAW) updated the market on the standby offer conditions and the acceptance levels thus far. The Namibian Competition Commission approval has now been received, with only the COMESA and Angolan approvals outstanding. It’s always the regulators in the rest of Africa that take the longest. The longstop date has been extended by three calendar months to 11 December 2025 to achieve these approvals. At this stage, the offer has been accepted by holders of 41.1% of Barloworld shares in issue, which would give the consortium and the Barloworld Foundation an effective 64.5% in Barloworld. The offer will be open for 10 business days after the transaction becomes unconditional, so it’s likely there are shareholders out there just keeping their options open until they have no choice but to accept or decline.
The various resolutions required for the implementation of the Cilo Cybin (JSE: CCC) transactions were all passed by shareholders. The company will be transferring its listing to the main board of the JSE on 29 September.
Libstar (JSE: LBR) has not exactly been a success story on the local market, with the share price having shed nearly 70% of its value since listing. This is why Libstar has been able to repurchase the shares in its B-BBEE scheme for nominal value. If a share price heads in the wrong direction, then so too will the value in a B-BBEE scheme. As these schemes usually have huge amounts of leverage in them, they can easily end up with no value unless the underlying shares go up in value significantly over time.
For those who like to get a sense of the cost of debt, Bidvest (JSE: BVT) has priced US$-denominated seven-year bonds at a coupon of 6.2%. The notes are issued in the UK (despite being in US dollars) and are guaranteed by Bidvest, so that’s a solid indication of the group cost of debt in hard currency.
Although the offer by Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) to shareholders of Assura (JSE: AHR) has now formally closed, there is still the compulsory or “squeeze-out” offer to get the rest of the shares. In other words, even for those who didn’t accept the offer in time, they will likely be forced to sell their shares anyway.
Mantengu has entered into a binding term sheet with the Lutzkie Besigheids Trust to acquire 100% of New Salt Rock City which in turn owns 60% of Kilken Platinum. Kilken is the 70% owner of the Kilken Imbani Joint Venture. The jv is an integrated processing operation treating the tailings from the Rustenburg Platinum Mines owned by Valterra Platinum. The purchase consideration, which is still to be finalised pending a due diligence, will be payable in a combination of cash and shares issued by Mantengu.
Anglo American has announced a proposed merger with Canada’s Teck Resources in a US$60 billion deal. Anglo has a market capitalisation of R630 billion while Toronto-listed Teck is valued at c. R300 billion. As this is a merger, no significant takeover premium is being paid by Anglo who will issue 1,33 shares to existing Teck investors for each share they hold in the company. Anglo shareholders will receive $4,5 billion via a special dividend (using proceeds received from the shedding of its remaining shareholding in Valterra Platinum) and will end up with a 62.4% stake in the merged entity to be called Anglo Teck. The new entity will shift its headquarters to Canada and retain its primary listing in London with secondary listings in Johannesburg, Toronto and New York. The merger will concentrate around 70% of the company’s portfolio in copper, alongside iron ore and zinc. The merger is expected to produce a total $800 million in pre-tax savings. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals expected to complete within 12-18 months.
The Spar is to sell its interest in Spar Switzerland to Tannenwald Holding AG in a deal with an equity value of c.R1,03 billion. In addition, Spar will be entitled to further earn-out payments of up to c.R660 million due at the end of 2027 based on actual achieved EBITDA of Spar Switzerland for FY26 and FY27.
CP Finance, as subsidiary of Newpark REIT, has entered into a conditional agreement to dispose of the industrial property known as Crown Mines, situated at 28 Renaissance Drive in Crown City, Johannesburg. Aviwe Nonya will pay R101,4 million to Newpark for the property, the proceeds of which will be used to reduce debt and fund new acquisitions.
As of 11 September 2025, Newco’s Standby Offer had received valid acceptances in respect of 76,67 million Barloworld ordinary shares equating to a c.41.1% stake in the company. This together with the Consortium’s and Barloworld Foundation’s existing shareholdings, equates to 64.5% of the shares in issue.
Unlisted Companies
Rekindle Learning, a women-led local digital learning innovator, has acquired EpiTek, a South African educational technology (EdTech) company that provides Software as a Service (SaaS) for online education platforms tailored for the African market. The EpiTek acquisition positions Rekindle Learning as a significant player in a sector largely dominated by international players. Financial details of the transaction were not disclosed.
Educational technology company The Invigilator, has secured US$11 million in international equity investment led by Kaltroco, a private investment company based in Jersey and investment professionals in Nashville, Zurich and Cape Town. The investment will give it the ability to ramp up AI development, allowing greater access to education while maintaining assessment credibility. It will roll out further, creating teams and presence in the US, Asia and Europe. Since inception in 2020, The Invigilator has served over 100 institutions with over 850,000 registered students, processing over six million results through more than 75,000 assessments across these institutions.
The African Forestry Impact Platform (AFIP), a fund of New Forests, a global investment manager of nature-based real assets and natural capital strategies, has invested in Rance Timber, a forestry and saw milling company in South Africa. The family-owned business consists of c.14,000 hectares of pine plantations and two sawmills based in the Eastern Cape. The acquisition follows AFIP’s earlier investment in Green Resources in East Africa. The fund, which has US$8 billion in assets is headquarter in Australia. Financial details were undisclosed.
Mulilo Energy, a renewable energy developer and strategic equity investor based in Cape Town, has secured a corporate facility from Standard Bank with an initial commitment of R1,1 billion available to support equity commitments while a further R5,9 billion can be allocated from headroom as the security pool grows raising commitments to R7 billion. This will enable Mulilo to execute on a robust pipeline of renewable energy projects spanning REIPPPP, Battery Energy Storage Systems and private off-take agreements with aggregators and traders.
TaxTim, a Cape Town-based digital tax assistant has been acquired by a consortium led by Twofold Capital and including Stellenbosch-based Octoco. Founded in 2011, TaxTim’s platform integrates with Sars eFiling, guiding users through a step-by-step process to prepare and submit returns and has processed over R700 million in tax refunds for its users to date.
Fintech platform Float has secured US$2,6 million (R46 million) in funding co-led by Invenfin (89% held by Remgro) and SAAD Investment Holdings with participation from existing investors including Platform Investment Partners. Lighthouse Venture Partners contributed as an investor and strategic adviser. Float offers consumers a responsible alternative to traditional credit by enabling them to split large credit-card purchases into monthly instalments up to 24 months without interest or fees, using existing credit limits. The funds will be used to scale Float’s footprint across SA, improve its technology and prepare for international market expansion.
Cape Town-based HOSTAFRICA, a provider of web hosting, domains and VPS services for the African continent has signed an agreement to acquire the Tanzanian web hosting company Zesha (T). HOSTAFRICA already has a footprint in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana. Financial details were undisclosed.
Libstar has exercised its option to repurchase 73,049,783 shares from the special purpose vehicles – Business Venture Investments No 2071 and Business Venture Investments No 2072 owned by the Libstar Employee Share Trust. The option became exercisable on the scheme’s seventh anniversary. The repurchased shares have reverted to authorised but unissued shares of the company.
The category 1 transaction announced by eMedia in June this year involved the subscription by Venfin (Remgro) of 18,3 million EMH N shares, the disposal by Venfin of about 17,7 million ordinary shares it owned in EMI, post the subscription, to EMH in exchange for 220,1 million EMH N shares. This resulted in giving eMedia control of the entity EMI that holds its stake in e.tv., eNCA, OpenView and Yfm. As per the transaction agreement, Remgro has now unbundled to shareholders by way of a distribution in specie, its 35% stake in EMH, creating a significantly larger percentage of the EMH N shares now in the hands of public shareholders.
Copper 360 intends to raise new equity of R400 million from existing shareholders at a price of 50 cents per share, underwritten by Differential Capital, in the amount of R260 million. In addition, the company will undertake a debt restructure with the conversion of long-term debt instruments on its balance sheet and the reduction of revenue-based royalty payments. The debt conversion will result in the issue of a maximum of 1,5 billion new ordinary shares issued in terms of the rights offer.
Last week Dipula Properties launched an equity raise of c.R500 million, implemented through an accelerated bookbuild process to fund acquisitions, which will include the Protea Gardens Mall in Soweto, announced on 19 August 2025 for R478,1 million. The bookbuild raised R559 million with 102,946,593 new ordinary shares placed at an issue price of R5.43 per share. The issue price represents a discount of 4.23% to the closing price prior to announcement and a discount of 4.86% to the 30-day VWAP.
Altvest Capital has launched an equity capital raise through the allotment and issue of 1 million shares at R11.00 per share. Having formally adopted the Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, the company now proposes to change the company name to The Africa Bitcoin Corporation, subject to shareholder approval. The name change is expected to take effect from 12 November 2025.
PBT Group is to change its name to PBT Holdings to better reflect its entire service offering – providing services via three core brands, PBT Technology Services, PBT Insurance Technologies and CyberPro Consulting. Shareholders will need to vote on this and will trading under the new name from 12 November 2025.
Pan African Resources is to apply to move the trading of its shares from AIM to the main market of the LSE. Management believes that the proposed move to the Main Market could enhance the company’s corporate profile and broaden its access to a wider pool of UK and global investors thereby supporting its next phase of growth.
The revised offer by Primary Health Properties (PHP) of Assura closed on 10 September. On 11 September PHP listed a further 44,845,540 new PHP shares in terms of the scheme. Following the successful acquisition the trading of Assura shares on the Main Board of the JSE is expected to be suspended on 3 October 2025.
Cilo Cybin previously indicated that the expected date of transfer of the company to the Main Board was Friday, 26 September 2025. The revised expected date of transfer is now Monday, 29 September 2025.
This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:
The Board of Old Mutual has approved a share buyback of up to R3 billion subject to prevailing market conditions. The buyback will proceed while the share price reflects a level that is considered accretive to shareholder value.
South32 continued with its US$200 million repurchase programme announced in August 2024. The shares will be repurchased over the period 12 September 2025 to 11 September 2026. This week 691,649,215 shares were repurchased for an aggregate cost of A$4,30 million.
On March 6, 2025, Ninety One plc announced that it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to £30 million. The shares will be purchased on the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 170,951 ordinary shares at an average price of 188 pence for an aggregate £321,528.
Investec ltd commenced its share purchase and buy-back programme of up to R2,5 billion (£100 million). Over the period 3 to 9 September 2025, Investec ltd purchased on the LSE, 8,60,871 Investec plc ordinary share at an average price of £5.5219 per share and 1,237,210 Investec plc shares on the JSE at an average price of R131.2998 per share. Over the same period Investec ltd repurchased 546,340 of its shares at an average price per share of R131.5593. The Investec ltd shares will be cancelled, and the Investec plc shares will be treated as if they were treasury shares in the consolidated annual financial statements of the Investec Group.
The purpose of Bytes Technology’s share repurchase programme, of up to a maximum aggregate consideration of £25 million, is to reduce Bytes’ share capital. This week 227,893 shares were repurchased at an average price per share of £4.10 for an aggregate £929,881.
Glencore plc’s current share buy-back programme plans to acquire shares of an aggregate value of up to US$1 billion. The shares will be repurchased on the LSE, BATS, Chi-X and Aquis exchanges and is expected to be completed in February 2026. This week 10,951,423 million shares were repurchased at an average price of £2.89 per share for an aggregate £31,66 million.
In May 2025 Tharisa plc announced it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to US$5 million. Shares have been trading at a significant discount, having been negatively impacted by the global commodity pricing environment, geo-political events and market volatility. Over the period 1 to 5 September 2025, the company repurchased 5,438 shares at an average price of R21.80 on the JSE and 148,499 shares at 92.2 pence per share on the LSE.
In May 2025, British American Tobacco plc extended its share buyback programme by a further £200 million, taking the total amount to be repurchased by 31 December 2025 to £1,1 billion. The extended programme is being funded using the net proceeds of the block trade of shares in ITC to institutional investors. This week the company repurchased a further 602,401 shares at an average price of £41.38 per share for an aggregate £24,93 million.
During the period 1 to 5 September 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 1,183,810 Prosus shares for an aggregate €61,66 million and Naspers, a further 98,781 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R564,4 million.
During the week four companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Copper 360, Tongaat Hulett, PSV and Mantengu.
Janngo Capital has invested an undisclosed sum in Jobzyn, a Moroccan startup that uses artificial intelligence to transform the recruitment process. The platform combines automation, transparency, and AI to help companies find the right talent while helping candidates make better career decisions.
WaterEquity has made its first investment from the Water & Climate Resilience Fund, committing US$5 million to Savant Group, the parent company of Kenya’s SunCulture. SunCulture’s solar-powered water pumps offer an affordable alternative to diesel and manual water pumps. Designed for irrigation, the pumps are also used by more than 90% of customers to access groundwater for drinking, cooking, and cleaning – helping rural households meet daily water needs more reliably, efficiently, and sustainably. WaterEquity’s investment will enable SunCulture to scale its operations and deepen its impact – aiming to expand water access to millions of farmers and their families in rural Africa.
ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms (ARISE IIP), a pan-African developer and operator of integrated industrial zones, announced the successful completion of US$700 million capital raise. The raise will see Vision Invest, a Saudi Arabian infrastructure investor and developer, join existing institutional shareholders, Africa Finance Corporation, Equitane and the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), the development impact platform of Afreximbank. ATISE IIP was founded in Ghana in 2010 and has now expanded to more than 14 countries across Africa, deploying nearly US$2 billion in infrastructure and enabling over 50,000 jobs. The platform focuses on creating local value through the transformation of raw materials and import substitution.
International Lithium Corp (ILC) has acquired an option from Lepidico (Canada) to buy 100% of the shares of Lepidico (Mauritius) on a debt-free basis for consideration of C$975,000 plus certain payments in the future that are contingent on and linked to various possible receipts by Lepidico Canada. Lepidico Mauritius in turn owns 80% of Lepidico Chemicals Namibia which owns the Karibib Lithium, Rubidium and Cesium project in Namibia. The Karibib Project comprises two areas near Karibib, Namibia, with fully permitted mining licences known as Rubicon and Helikon along with an Exclusive Prospecting Licence EPL5439 for an adjacent area.
Mezzanine finance fund manager, Vantage Capital, has fully exited its investment in Equity Invest, a Moroccan group comprising six companies operating across various segments of the information technology space. The group’s business lines include electronic security, audiovisual multimedia systems, renewable energy, digital payments, e-commerce and hospital management software. Vantage provided Equity Invest with an €8 million mezzanine finance facility in October 2019. The funding enabled the founder, Mr. Ali Bettahi, to secure a controlling stake in one of the group’s flagship subsidiaries, Unisystem Group, by acquiring the shares that were held by a private equity investor. Under Mr. Bettahi’s ownership and with Vantage’s strategic support, the group has consolidated its position in Morocco and also expanded into new markets in sub-Saharan Africa.
Helios Investment Partners has received preliminary approval, by the board of Telecom Egypt, of Helios’ binding offer to acquire a stake ranging from approximately 75% to 80% in a subsidiary that will own the Regional Data Hub (RDH) data centre assets of Telecom Egypt. The offer values 100% the RDH on a debt-free, cash-free basis at US$230 million, which could reach US$260 million subject to the achievement of certain KPIs. The RDH is a multi-phase data centre campus in Cairo. The first phase was launched in 2021 and provides approximately 2.5 MW of IT load; it reached full utilization within a year, and achieved multiple Uptime Institute Tier III certifications. RDH2 is designed for approximately 4.6 MW, received Uptime Institute Tier III Design Certification in November 2024, and is registered for the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) programme.
Nigeria’s Husk Power Systems has secured a ₦5 billion revolving, local currency debt facility from United Capital Infrastructure Fund (UCIF). The revolving facility is the first Naira-denominated debt instrument of its kind. The revolving loan has a tenure of 10 years, during which Husk expects to redeploy the capital twice. Initial deployments will be used to build out Husk’s standalone minigrid pipeline in Nigeria, with expansion plans to include interconnected minigrids (IMGs) and commercial and industrial (C&I) solar projects.
South Africa’s HOSTAFRICA has entered the Tanzania market with the acquisition of Tanzanian web hosting company, Zesha for an undisclosed sum. Since its founding in 2016, HOSTAFRICA has established a strong presence in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana. Tanzania becomes the fifth country in HOSTAFRICA’s regional network.
According to our latest EY Parthenon CEO Outlook Pulse Survey, South African CEOs navigating the complexities of today’s global landscape recognise that geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic fluctuations and trade uncertainties pose both significant risks and opportunities for their investment and growth strategies.
Unsurprisingly, the recent spate of tariff increases has become a pressing concern, compelling CEOs to re-evaluate their tactical plans and approach to deploying capital. In response, some are temporarily delaying planned investments, reflecting a commitment to safeguarding operations and ensuring long-term sustainability in an unpredictable environment.
Despite these challenges, South African CEOs are demonstrating resilience and adaptability: • While 43% identify geopolitical, macroeconomic and trade uncertainty as a risk to achieving their 12-month growth targets – mirroring the global average – local leaders are taking more proactive steps.
• For example, 67% are considering joint ventures, in line with global peers, but 42% are accelerating digital transformation, compared to just 24% prioritising technology globally.
• Additionally, 54% have delayed planned investments due to economic uncertainty, yet SA CEOs remain notably committed to maintaining transactional activity over the next year.
• To mitigate the impact of rising tariffs and broader uncertainty, we see businesses actively investing to diversify their supply chains and end markets. This strategic pivot is essential for enhancing resilience. In the South African context, CEOs continue to show clear determination to continue investing in enterprise transformation and pursuing growth opportunities. This forward-looking stance signals confidence in the market’s potential, and a readiness to navigate complexity with agility and purpose.
A Global view
According to the latest EY Parthenon CEO Outlook Survey, 98% of Global CEO respondents are concerned about tariff increases affecting their company’s operations and sales in the next 12 months, with 50% very or extremely concerned. Indeed, geopolitical, macroeconomic and trade uncertainty is cited as the top risk to achieving growth (42%), and 54% say they have delayed a planned investment as a result. But CEOs are responding proactively by rethinking global relationships: 44% of respondents say they are looking to adjust supply chain arrangements; 42% are exploring product design innovations to reduce reliance on tariffed materials; and 39% are relocating operational assets to a different geography.
The complexity of the current landscape is reflected in the fact that the most critical trading relationships are not always the closest or most locally significant, according to the survey. While 42% of Chinese respondents cite the US-China tariff and trade dispute as their primary concern, 8% are more focused on the US-Mexico relationship. This underscores global interconnections and the difficulty of navigating tariff challenges, particularly as other major economies react to potential US tariffs. This contrasts with a highly positive outlook for M&A in 2025 prior to the US administration’s tariffs announcement of 2 April this year, which culminated in US$1T of deals recorded during Q1 2025 – up 25% year-on-year. With 57% of survey respondents hoping to pursue M&A in the next 12 months, the report indicates that pre-existing pressures – tech adoption and a talent squeeze key among them – will remain pent-up transformation drivers that will see CEOs return to dealmaking as the market settles.
M&A can drive transformation and deliver value in times of challenge
While reports of integration hurdles, cultural misalignment and overestimated synergies often lead to speculation around how much shareholder value is delivered post-deal, the survey tells a different story about the CEO experience. More than half of CEO respondents (55%) say their recent acquisitions met or exceeded value expectations, with only 2% reporting value destruction.
AI investment roadmap unclear as many CEOs look to cost reduction
Global CEOs report mixed results from artificial intelligence (AI) deployments to date, which may slow down implementation in a turbulent year. While 36% of respondents say they plan to expand AI investments after positive results to date, 25% say they are “scaling back or reconsidering” AI investments due to “unclear or disappointing” returns. This may create pressure on AI deployments, as CEOs try to balance a cautious response to the current volatility with an ongoing demand to accelerate AI adoption, and to upskill and hire talent for specialised AI roles.
With nearly half of CEO respondents (42%) indicating that they are looking to absorb additional costs internally through operational efficiencies and cost reductions, many may be delaying tech investment pending more geopolitical certainty.
Also fuelling a renewed and likely growing focus on cost management is the challenge of inflation. Seventy-one percent of respondents agree that inflation continues to be a challenge and will be an issue they need to navigate for the next year, and many of those will be looking at opportunities to mitigate cost increases.
In summary
South African CEOs are proactively adapting to global challenges, with 43% citing geopolitical and economic uncertainty as a risk, on par with global peers. However, they are more likely to accelerate digital transformation (42% vs 24% globally) and pursue joint ventures (67%).
Despite 54% delaying investments, SA leaders remain committed to dealmaking and enterprise transformation. This mirrors global trends, where CEOs are rethinking supply chains and planning M&A activity despite tariff pressures and inflation concerns. While AI investment is mixed, both local and global CEOs are focused on cost efficiency and long-term value creation.
Quintin Hobbs is an EY-Parthenon Africa Strategy and Transactions Leader | EY
This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the landscape of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). What used to be a slow, labour-intensive process involving countless hours of manual review is now becoming faster, more precise, and data-driven thanks to AI-powered tools. From deal sourcing through due diligence, negotiation and post-merger integration, companies are leveraging AI to gain competitive advantages and unlock greater value.
DEAL SOURCING AND TARGET IDENTIFICATION
One of AI’s most valuable contributions to the M&A process is its ability to identify and evaluate potential acquisition targets with speed and precision. According to McKinsey & Company, AI algorithms can analyse vast and diverse datasets, including financial records, transaction histories, news reports and social media content to highlight targets that align with strategic and financial goals. Beyond target identification, AI supports predictive analytics that allow legal and investment teams to forecast key performance indicators, revenue trends, ROI potential and market fluctuations, providing dealmakers with an opportunity to compare options and make data-driven choices. This reduces the risk of poor fit, and enhances strategic decision-making at the earliest stages of a deal. Additionally, AI platforms can assess softer factors such as corporate culture, customer overlap, and operational compatibility, helping organisations to anticipate integration challenges and prioritise the most promising opportunities.
DUE DILIGENCE AND TRANSACTION DOCUMENTS WITH AI AUTOMATION
Due diligence is often the most time-consuming and resource-intensive stage of an M&A transaction. Traditionally, legal and advisory teams manually review vast volumes of legal, financial and regulatory documents, a process that can take weeks or months. The sheer complexity and volume of data can lead to delays, increased costs and missed red flags, with many high-profile M&A failures stemming from inadequate or rushed due diligence. AI technologies significantly accelerate document analysis by automating the extraction of relevant data from diverse sources, reducing the burden on human analysts and ensuring a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. Whether it’s spotting inconsistencies in contractual clauses, identifying compliance gaps, or highlighting unusual financial metrics, AI empowers deal teams to swiftly conduct deeper and more accurate assessments. As such, AI adoption is quickly becoming essential for private equity firms, legal teams, financial advisors and investment banks seeking a competitive edge in today’s high-stakes deal environment.
AI has emerged as a transformative tool in the preparation and management of transaction documents. According to a recent article by M&A Community, its benefits at this stage include:
i. Reduced manual effort: AI eliminates repetitive and time-consuming tasks such as document review, data extraction and preliminary analysis. This allows deal teams to shift their focus to higher-value activities, including interpreting insights and making strategic decisions.
ii. Accelerated timelines: AI enables rapid generation and review of transaction documents based on the client’s needs, significantly reducing the time required to prepare, negotiate and finalise documentation, allowing deal timelines to move forward faster.
iii. Lower cost: automation of document review, drafting and data extraction reduces dependence on large legal or deal teams, lowering the overall transaction costs while minimising the risk of human error. AI also supports early detection of inconsistencies or missing provision in key documents, helping avoid costly oversight or post signing disputes.
SUPPORTING POST-MERGER INTEGRATION FOR SUCCESS
Ansarada has highlighted the use case for AI in post-merger integration to include:
i. Uncovering hidden synergies by analysing customer behaviour, market trends and internal capabilities, revealing new growth opportunities and suggesting innovative product ideas, optimal marketing and operational strategies, and proposing new business models, enabling integration teams to move beyond simply merging operations to driving a sustainable company.
ii. Generative AI can simulate numerous “what if” scenarios during post-merger integration, using historical data and predictive models to evaluate different potential strategies and their potential outcomes to help make informed decisions.
iii. Natural language processing tools can analyse employee communications and feedback to detect shifts in sentiment and flag potential morale issues early, allowing leaders to address concerns before they escalate.
CHALLENGES OF AI IN M&A
Despite its potential, several challenges hinder the adoption of AI in mergers and acquisitions. These include:
i. Data privacy: the deal cycle often involves handling sensitive and proprietary information about the target company. Firms using AI must implement stringent data protection measures, including data anonymisation and full compliance with relevant data protection regulations.
ii. Data inaccuracy: The effectiveness of AI systems is largely dependent on the quality of the data they analyse. When data is incomplete or contains errors, it can result in misleading analyses, which creates significant risks. This is especially relevant in the African context, which is discussed further below.
iii. High implementation costs: Deploying AI technologies often demands substantial financial resources, including investments in advanced technology, supporting infrastructure and specialised talent. These considerable initial expenses can pose significant barriers, particularly for smaller firms seeking to leverage these technologies.
Additionally, cultural and qualitative factors, such as leadership alignment, employee engagement and stakeholder relationships remain difficult for AI to fully evaluate, underscoring the continued importance of human judgment alongside AI insights.
THE AFRICAN CONTEXT
As AI becomes increasingly embedded in the M&A process, Africa faces the unique challenge of AI recolonisation, due to the reliance on foreign-developed AI technologies. Most AI tools used across the continent are created and controlled by entities outside Africa, often trained on non-African data, and developed with limited understanding of local markets. In the M&A context, this creates a significant barrier, as tools that are not trained on African-specific data are less likely to deliver accurate insights. To overcome this, there must be a deliberate effort to develop locally relevant AI capabilities supported by robust, context-specific data infrastructure. This is not simply a technical requirement, but a strategic imperative for unlocking AI’s full potential in identifying suitable acquisition targets, assessing risks accurately, and guiding post-merger integration within Africa’s M&A landscape.
CONCLUSION
As we enter the era of Industry 5.0, marked by closer human-machine collaboration, AI is set to become an essential partner in the M&A process. Rather than replacing professionals, AI tools are designed to amplify human judgment, streamline decision-making, and unlock deeper strategic insights across every stage of a transaction. In leveraging AI in the M&A process, maintaining human oversight is crucial to ensure the validity and accuracy of AI-generated insights. In this early stage of AI adoption, practitioners must take full responsibility for thoroughly reviewing and verifying all analyses and findings produced by AI before finalising any deal. Successful integration will depend on how effectively organisations combine AI’s analytical power with human experience and intuition. Those who adopt this balanced approach will be better positioned to navigate complexity, reduce risk, and create long-term value in an increasingly competitive deal environment.
Njeri Wagacha is a Director and Wambui Kimamo a Trainee Lawyer | CDH Kenya
This article first appeared in DealMakers AFRICA, the continent’s quarterly M&A publication.
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