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South African M&A Analysis Q1 2025

It is no wonder that activity in the South African mergers and acquisitions (M&A) space has been subdued; there has been so much noise, both locally and internationally, that investors have opted to take a cautious approach – for now, anyway.

DealMakers recorded a total of 87 deals for the quarter, valued at R176,4bn. Sector analysis for the quarter shows real estate transactions taking the major share in activity reported, followed by deals in energy, financial services and the industrial and manufacturing sectors. Companies in Africa were the partners of choice for cross border activities by SA-domiciled exchange-listed companies – with nine deals announced of the 23 recorded for the quarter. These deals were across a broad spectrum of sectors, with no trend evident.

The number of private equity deals recorded (both by exchange listed and unlisted companies) continued to decline to 15 (2024: 26 deals). At six, the number of BEE deals for the quarter remained constant, with Exxaro’s extension of its BEE ownership scheme (valued at R16,7bn) making the top 10 deals by value for the quarter.

Source : DealMakers Online

Behind the scenes, in what DealMakers classifies as general corporate finance, activity was also subdued. Only repurchases showed an uptick as companies took advantage of the turmoil in global markets to repurchase shares at discounted values. R107bn worth of shares were repurchased – against R64,6bn during the same period in the previous year.

Sourece: DealMakers Online

Sectors on the investment radar for 2025 include: renewable energy – South Africa has attracted significant international funding to support its push towards sustainable energy solutions; digital infrastructure, as acquisitions and strategic partnerships are sought to enhance connectivity, particularly in underserved areas; and mining, with the likes of Anglo American pursuing strategies involving restructuring, and broader consolidation efforts ongoing in the mining sector.

Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, although now on a 90-day pause, showed the current US administration’s ability to potentially alter the global economic landscape – with South Africa facing the prospect, with some exceptions, of a 30% blanket tariff on exports to the US.

Challenges often provide an opportunity for self-reflection, and for South Africa, there is a unique opportunity to reposition itself as a leader in African trade by strengthening regional trade networks within AfCFTA and beyond, and to leverage public-private partnerships and public sector investment.

DealMakers Q1 2025 League Table M&A activity by the top South African advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies).

DealMakers Q1 2025 League Table General Corporate Finance activity by the top South African advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies).

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Production at Anglo American’s Moranbah North coal mine, a key asset in the announced November 2024 deal with Peabody Energy, was suspended after an underground fire broke out at the mine in March this year. The incident has created huge uncertainty on the timeframe of the deal. The transaction comprised an upfront cash portion of $2,05 billion and deferred payment of $725 million. The balance of the consideration comprises a $550 million price-linked earnout and a contingent cash consideration of $450 million which is linked to the reopening of Grosvenor coal mine. In response to concerns raised, Anglo American said it did not believe production stoppage at the mine constituted a Material Adverse Change to its agreement with Peabody.

Gold Fields through its wholly owned subsidiary Gruyere, has entered into a scheme of agreement to acquire 100% of the issued shares of Gold Road Resources, with shareholders receiving a cash consideration equivalent to the value of A$3.40 per Gold Road share – higher than its original offer. The consideration per share comprises a fixed cash portion of $2.52 and a variable cash portion equal to the full value of each shareholders’ portion of Gold Road’s shareholding in Northern Star Resources of c.$0.88 per Gold Road share. In addition, if the deal becomes effective, shareholders will receive a special dividend from Gold Road of c.$0.35 per share (A$379 million). The scheme consideration values Gold Road’s equity at c.A$3,7 billion (R43,66 billion) with an implied total enterprise value of c.A$2,6 billion. For Gold Fields the acquisition represents a strategically low-risk opportunity to enhance its portfolio through consolidation of the Gruyere Joint Venture in which it is the operator.

In addition, AngloGold Ashanti (AGA) and Gold Fields have agreed to pause a two-year long discussion around a proposed joint venture to combine their Iduapriem and Tarkwa gold mines in Ghana. During this time, AGA has identified changes in its standalone mine plan for Iduapriem which have the potential to unlock significant additional value. The companies will, for now, focus on improving the current standalone performances of their respective sites while allowing AGA to consolidate the improvements to its long-term mining plan.

AngloGold Ashanti (AGA) will sell its interests in two gold projects in Côte d’Ivoire to Australian Resolute Mining in a move which will allow the miner to focus on its operating assets and development projects in the US. It will sell Centamin West Africa which owns the Doropo Project and the Archean-Birimian Contact – both acquired when it bought Centamin plc in November 2024. The value of the consideration for the sale of the Doropo Project is US$175 million, comprising a cash payment of $150 million plus either (i) the acquisition of the Mansala Project which, as a brownfield project, will provide an additional ore source to AGA’s Siguiri operations or (ii) an additional amount of $25 million if the acquisition cannot be completed within 18 months. A milestone payment of $10 million in cash will be paid for the Archean-Birimian Contact on declaration of a mineral reserve.

Menar, a South African diversified industrial group, has acquired Springlake Colliery from Mylotex. Considered a strategic asset for Menar, Springlake is an underground mine situated within the Klipriver Coalfield near Hattinspruit in KZN. It has the capacity to produce an c.60,000 tonnes of run-of-mine anthracite per month, suitable for export markets in parts of Asia, Europe and South America. Financial details were undisclosed.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

In mid-April the JSE has advised Wesizwe Platinum shareholders that the company had failed to submit its financial statements within the three-month period stipulated in the JSE’s Listing Requirements. The company had until the 2 May 2025 to do so, which it failed to do. The company has been warned that if it still fails to submit its annual report on or before 31 May, its listing may be suspended.

aReit Prop was warned in February by the JSE that its REIT status would be removed if it failed to submit a REIT Compliance Declaration as per the JSE Listing Requirements. Although the company objected to the JSE’s decision, the REIT status of the company was removed with effect from 6 May 2025.

The JSE will welcome Shuka Minerals plc to the Alternative Exchange – General Mining sector on 21 May 2025. The mining and development company which has its primary listing on AIM, will take an inward secondary listing on the JSE under the fast-track listing process. The miner’s focus lies in the acquisition and development of valuable mineral opportunities which aim to contribute to the sustainable growth and development of local communities.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Thungela Resources has completed the share buyback announced in March 2025, repurchasing a total of 3,254,559 shares for a total consideration R328 million. The shares will not be cancelled. The group now holds a total of 10,18 million shares in treasury.

Sabvest Capital has purchased 720,000 shares through the market at an average price per share of R94.13 for a total consideration of R67,8 million.

On March 6, 2025, Ninety One plc announced that it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to £30 million. The shares will be purchased on the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 917,581 ordinary shares at an average price of 151 pence for an aggregate £1,38 million.

On 19 February 2025, Glencore plc announced the commencement of a new US$1 billion share buyback programme, with the intended completion by the time of the Group’s interim results announcement in August 2025. This week the company repurchased 18,500,000 shares at an average price per share of £2.47 for an aggregate £45,73 million.

Hammerson plc continued with its programme to purchase its ordinary shares up to a maximum consideration of £140 million. The sole purpose of the buyback programme is to reduce the company’s share capital. This week the company repurchased 344,310 shares at an average price per share of 255 pence for an aggregate £878,872.

In line with its share buyback programme announced in March 2024, British American Tobacco plc this week repurchased a further 629,347 shares at an average price of £32.63 per share for an aggregate £20,54 million.

During the period 28 April to 2 May 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 3,983,979 Prosus shares for an aggregate €164,85 million and Naspers, a further 177,844 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R875,4 million.

Three companies issued profit warnings this week: Astral Foods, Mantengu Mining and enX.

During the week eight companies issued cautionary notices: Tongaat Hulett, Gold Fields, Kore Potash, PSV, Metrofile, TeleMasters and Goldrush.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

iSUPPLY, an Egyptian B2B med-tech, has announced a US$3 million Sharia-compliant revenue-based revolving finance agreement with Bokra. i‘SUPPLY looks to digitise the pharmaceutical business by providing a one-stop-shop solution to quickly predict and overcome supply chain disruptions. Leveraging artificial intelligence and predictive analytics, the platform streamlines procurement and optimises inventory, helping resolve long-standing inefficiencies in the healthcare supply chain.

Metals exploration company KoBold Metals has agreed a framework agreement to buy AVZ Minerals’ interests in the Manono lithium deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The agreement will enable KoBold, which is backed by billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, to invest more than $1 billion to bring lithium from Manono to Western markets.

Nigerian heath-tech Platos Health, has raised US$1,4 million in pre-seed funding to grow its AI powered health platform, Platos Monitor. The round was led by Google for Startups and also included Invest International and several angel investors.

ASX-listed Resolute Mining has signed an agreement with AngloGold Ashanti to acquire the Doropo and ABC Projects in Côte d’Ivoire for US$150 million. The consideration will be paid through an upfront payment of $25 million and a deferred cash consideration of $125 million payable in two instalments. The consideration also includes a royalty (2%) and milestone payment over the ABC Project and the transfer of Resolute’s Guinean exploration permits, to AngloGold.

Egypt’s Elsewedy Electric S.A.E has acquired a 60% stake in Thomassen Service. The acquisition consists of its MEA business unit (TSME), its filters manufacturing and its African-business affiliate. Financial terms were not disclosed. Elswedy operates in five key business sectors: Wire, Cable & Accessories, Electrical Products, Engineering & Construction, Digital Solutions, and Infrastructure Investments and the acquisition will expand its global footprint and diversify its capabilities in the energy sector.

Renewable energy firm, Biolite, headquartered in New York and Nairobi, and Norwegian Investment Fund, Norfund, have acquired a majority stake in Baobab+ from the Baobab Group. Baobab+ is a provider of off-grid renewable energy solutions, operating in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Madagascar. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Egyptian fintech, MoneyFellows has raised US$13 million in pre-Series C funding. The round was led by Al Mada Ventures and DPI’s Nclude Fund and included Partech Africa, CommerzVentures and other investors. MoneyFellows has digitised one of the world’s oldest financial systems: the rotating savings and credit association (ROSCA). ROSCAs are informal savings groups where a fixed number of participants contribute regularly to a shared pool, which pays out to one member per cycle. Rather than act as a lender, MoneyFellows matches savers and borrowers using behavioural data, credit scores, and income tiers.

GHOST BITES (Datatec | DRDGOLD | MTN Uganda)

Datatec had a great financial year (JSE: DTC)

They’ve carried on from where they left off in the interims

In the six months to August 2024, Datatec had a grand old time during which HEPS jumped by 67% (measured in US dollars). This performance was driven by a significant improvement in gross margin, along with efficiencies in expenses that drove EBITDA higher. This is old news of course, but important context.

The new news is that a trading statement for the year ended February 2025 shows us that the second half was even better, as the full-year guidance is for HEPS growth of between 76.1% and 83.1% (measured in USD).

The shape of the income statement is changing, as evidenced by Logicalis Latin America improving its overall performance for the year despite lower gross profits. Ultimately, net profit is what matters for shareholders, although it’s important to keep an eye on trends throughout the income statement.

Look out for detailed numbers on 27 May. With the share price up 55% over 12 months, they should get plenty of attention.


DRDGOLD had a disappointing quarter (JSE: DRD)

The company is vulnerable to any impacts on throughput and yield

DRDGOLD processes reclamation material (like mine dumps) to extract gold. This is clearly a much lower margin process than the operation of an established, deep mine. It is therefore more sensitive to not just gold price moves, but also anything that can impact surface-level production.

It was therefore bad luck that the quarter ended March 2025 was impacted by rainfall, as the company couldn’t take advantage of a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase in the gold price. Yes, it was up 10% vs. the quarter ended December 2024, not just the equivalent quarter last year. But this only served to mitigate the pain in the end, as gold sales were down 13% quarter-on-quarter.

The blame lies at the door of a 12% knock to production, which was a combination of a 5% deterioration in the amount of ore milled and a 7% decrease in yield. They attribute both these drops to the weather. This is easy to understand in terms of total ore milled. For yield, they explain that this is because of limited access to material, hence they couldn’t process the desired blend. Fair enough, although I must add that yield has been a challenge at DRDGOLD before.

With all said and done, adjusted EBITDA was down 2% quarter-on-quarter. This is frustrating, but they certainly still made money, as evidenced by cash increasing by R289.3 million to R950.5 million despite the payment of the interim cash dividend of R258.7 million.

As this was the third quarter of the financial year, there isn’t much time left to make up for the disappointment. This is why the company has warned that it may fall marginally short of full-year production guidance.

Despite this, the share price is up 71% year-to-date. The market firmly believes that gold prices will remain strong.


MTN Uganda: another African winner this quarter (JSE: MTN)

The good news just keeps flowing for MTN

MTN Uganda has been the most stable of MTN’s African subsidiaries. The inflation rate is low by any standard, leading to a sensible macroeconomic environment in which to operate. It’s therefore not surprising that at a time when even the crazy uncles (like Nigeria and Ghana) are behaving at the dinner table, the class captain (Uganda) is still doing well.

How well, you ask? With inflation at just 3.6%, they grew revenue by a delightful 13.0%. EBITDA was up 13.7%, so EBITDA margin expanded slightly – up 40 basis points to 52.4%, which is a lucrative level. Profit after tax grew by 20.6%, coming in at a margin of 21.3%. This is a fantastic business by any metric.

And in case you’re wondering about where the cash is going, capex (ex-leases) actually decreased by 2.8%. Capex intensity is in line with their medium-term guidance.

This really is the icing on the cake for the recent updates coming from the MTN Group. The MTN share price is up 30% year-to-date, making it one of the best places that you could’ve had your money on the local market.

I must of course note that the longer term performance isn’t nearly as exciting, as MTN has been through some immense volatility. This is the same company that had to extend its B-BBEE deal at the end of last year because the group share price was under so much pressure!

Things change quickly in Africa.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Here’s yet more selling by a Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) executive, this time the COO. She’s sold shares worth R4.9 million. It really is quite remarkable how many Standard Bank execs have sold shares recently, with the share price up 2% year-to-date.
    • The marketing and communications executive at Capitec (JSE: CPI) – a prescribed officer – bought shares worth R2.4 million.
    • There’s some clever wording in the Nedbank (JSE: NED) director dealings announcement. A few directors / executives sold shares to cover purely the tax on share awards, but the COO sold shares that were only partly for the tax. The total sale by that director was R8.5 million but we don’t know how much was for tax and how much was on top of that.
    • Europa Metals (JSE: EUZ) announced that certain directors will be receiving shares in lieu of fees to the value of £48.2k. This works out to a substantial 4.6% of the current issued share capital! To be fair, this includes the acting CEO, so these aren’t just non-executive director fees.
  • Absa (JSE: ABG) announced that Sello Moloko will step down as chairman and independent non-executive director of the group. He will be focusing on other business interests and community projects. René van Wyk will replace him as chairman, subject to regulatory approval. He was interim CEO of Absa in 2019 and rejoined the board in 2020 as a non-executive. He also has tons of other banking experience, including at the SARB.
  • Oasis Crescent (JSE: OAS) shareholders should be aware that the circular dealing with the reinvestment of the dividend has been sent out to shareholders. The trick here is that if no election is made, the default is that the distribution is reinvested. The second trick is that the reinvestment is made at the NAV of the units, which is R28.07 per unit, when the current share price is R20.50. Hence, read carefully.
  • Universal Partners (JSE: UPL) has very little liquidity, so I’ll just give the results a passing mention down here. The net asset value (NAV) per share is down 9.1% year-on-year. Forex moves are certainly relevant here, as they directly impact the fair value of foreign assets once translated to rand. If you read through the updates on the various portfolio companies, it’s the usual selection of hit-and-miss. It doesn’t feel like there are any standout businesses in this portfolio, which is probably why the market doesn’t pay much attention.

GHOST BITES (Gold Fields | Mantengu Mining | Metrofile | MTN Rwanda)

Gold Fields had a strong start to the year (JSE: GFI)

And Ghana JV discussions with AngloGold (JSE: ANG) have been paused

Let’s start with the joint venture opportunity in Ghana. AngloGold and Gold Fields have been talking since 2023 about combining the neighbouring Iduapriem and Tarkwa gold mines and have been in discussions with government regarding the required approvals. But during that period, AngloGold had a change of heart – they have a different strategy for Iduapriem and will focus on running that mine in isolation.

Gold Fields refers to the opportunity as still being “compelling” – this leaves the door open for discussions to resume at some point in time. In the meantime, Gold Fields will look to apply to extend the Tarkwa leases which are due for renewal in 2027. They had some headaches getting the mining lease across the line at the Damang mine (also in Ghana), so hopefully that won’t be the case once more.

Onwards to the Gold Fields operational update for the first quarter of 2025, which reflects partially sustained momentum from the second half of 2024. Group attributable production was 19% higher year-on-year, but 14% lower quarter-on-quarter vs. a particularly high base (Q4’24). Naturally, if you dig into the underlying mines (pun shamelessly intended), the production results become more volatile. This is why the market prefers larger mining groups with multiple sites.

Better production leads to a lower cost per ounce, so it isn’t surprising to see that all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was 7% lower year-on-year. It also isn’t a surprise to see that it was 15% higher quarter-on-quarter, given the aforementioned production statistics.

Net debt reduced over the past three months from $2,086 million to $1,981 million. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA is at a perfectly acceptable 0.59x.

A solid quarter was important here, as this week also saw Gold Fields announced that they’ve convinced the Gold Road board to support the proposed A$3.7 billion acquisition of that group. They plan to fund it using new bridge financing. The hope here is obviously that gold prices remain strong, allowing them to reduce that debt.

2025 guidance is unchanged. This means that they still expect to spend roughly $1.5 billion on capex (give or take a few million) and over a third of that is expected to be on expansion capex rather than sustaining capex. These are good times in the gold sector.


Mantengu releases one of the strangest trading statements you’ll ever see (JSE: MTU)

It looks like EPS and HEPS had a fight and never want to talk to each other again

Mantengu Mining released a trading statement dealing with the year ended February 2025. Earnings per share (EPS) is up by 14,700% (from 1 cent to 148 cents), while headline earnings per share (HEPS) was actually a loss, down at -23 cents vs. 1 cents in the prior year. Talk about a fork in the road!

I had to have a chuckle at the SENS announcement referencing that Mantengu’s earnings are well in excess of the market cap and hence the significant discount to net asset value that the company is trading at isn’t justifiable. I hate to break it to the good people of Mantengu, but nobody cares about EPS. HEPS is what counts and considering they just made a loss, I would suggest making less noise about linking earnings to the share price.

It very rarely ends well for management teams who get frustrated at the market. Just focus on execution, particularly with the share price down 41% over 12 months.

Speaking of execution, production ramped up in 2024 and had a really strong end to the calendar year. Alas, January and February were quite sharply down year-on-year due to flooding. As luck would have it, this coincided with a 30% drop in chrome concentrate prices. Prices rebounded in March, so hopefully they can take advantage of that. The March and April production numbers certainly look good.

Remember the announcement of the acquisition of Sublime Technologies? The deal made absolutely no sense to me, as Sublime had a net asset value of R205 million and yet they bought it for $100k. The trading statement notes that the previous owners had started the process of winding the business down before Mantengu bought it, so that net asset value seems even stranger to me. I have a strong suspicion that the huge jump in EPS is because of a bargain purchase gain that will be recognised on this acquisition, as they bought the net assets at a deep discount.

Of course, whether or not they really got a discount will come out in the wash. Cash generation is what counts, not balance sheet values. This is why HEPS (which is at least a closer proxy for cash than EPS) is what the market looks at.


A potential deal for Metrofile draws closer (JSE: MFL)

A party is conducting due diligence

Metrofile released a cautionary announcement on 26 March that alerted the market to discussions with a potential acquirer of the company. Goodness knows this isn’t the first time that Metrofile has been thrown around as a takeover target.

Will it be different this time? The potential deal is at least still alive and well, with the mystery acquirer now moving into the high level limited due diligence phase. There is still absolutely no guarantee of an offer being made.

Since 25 March, just before the cautionary came out, the share price has increased by 60%. I obviously have no idea what premium has been discussed behind closed doors for this potential deal, but it seems like the market may be very guilty of counting its chickens before they hatch here. Even if there is an offer coming, how much higher could it possibly be than the current traded price?


MTN Rwanda also grew ahead of inflation – although there are pressures (JSE: MTN)

This can be added to the list of African subsidiaries that are in the green

MTN seems to be having a much better time of things at the moment. We’ve seen strong numbers in MTN Ghana and MTN Nigeria. We can now add MTN Rwanda to the list, albeit to a lesser extent.

The first thing I do is compare revenue growth to inflation, as some of these African countries have massive inflation rates. Rwanda isn’t one of them, with inflation of 5.3% in Q1. Service revenue up by 12.3% is thus a tick in the box, particularly as this was achieved despite a decrease in active data subscribers (a risk of an increasingly competitive market that shouldn’t be ignored).

The next thing to look at is EBITDA margin, which decreased by 120 basis points to 38.9%. That’s not great obviously, but EBITDA was still 9.3% higher and that represents real growth i.e. growth above inflation.

Capex fell by 22.5%, although this seems to be mainly due to the timing of capex spend in the prior year. We will need to see how this plays out over a full year. For now at least, adjusted free cash flow was up 70.1% and nobody is going to be upset about that!


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CFO of Growthpoint (JSE: GRT) sold shares worth R2 million.
  • Renergen (JSE: REN) has achieved another milestone in the general de-risking of its investment story. The High Court in Gauteng has ruled that the Gas Act of 2001 does not apply to any liquefaction facilities outside the Piped Gas industry. Specifically, this means that Renergen’s activities fall under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA) and thus outside of the regulatory reach of the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA). Essentially, as long as Renergen stays away from supplying the regulated piped gas industry, there is no longer any ambiguity around the relevant regulatory regime.
  • Shareholders of African Rainbow Capital Investments (JSE: ARC) voted strongly in favour of the delisting of the company. The focus is now on the offer itself, which is open for acceptance until 23 May. At this stage, having written so many times about the offer price and the management fees to get to this point, I’m just happy to see it go.
  • Assura (JSE: AHR) is under offer from Sana Bidco, which is a special purpose vehicle created by KKR and Stonepeak Partners for this deal. The proposed structure is a scheme of arrangement, which means that a circular needs to be sent out to shareholders. The challenge is that there’s been a delay to getting the circular approved by the JSE, so Assura had to approach the takeover authorities for an extension of the deadline for posting the scheme circular. It has been pushed out to 21 May.
  • Telemasters (JSE: TLM) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a potential acquisition. They are in the process of identifying funding partners, so it sounds like they are getting close to making a detailed announcement. But as always, there’s no guarantee at all of a deal happening.

Ghost Stories #61: A day in the life of a portfolio manager (Lauren Jacobs at Satrix)

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

Ever wondered how the nuts and bolts of ETFs work? What goes into index tracking and making sure that it is achieved at the lowest possible cost? And are all indices created equal from a complexity perspective?

In answering these questions (and many more), Lauren Jacobs at Satrix* shows you what a day in the life of a portfolio manager looks like. As you’ll learn in this podcast, a great deal of work goes on behind the scenes to make Satrix ETFs as efficient as possible for investors.

This podcast was first published here.

*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management

Satrix Investments Pty Limited and Satrix Managers RF Pty Limited are authorised financial services providers. Nothing you have heard in this podcast should be construed as advice. Please do your own research and visit the Satrix website for more information on all their ETF products.

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. It’s another one with the team from Satrix, who won a lot of awards, by the way, at the recent industry awards. I actually put something on Ghost Mail just this week about that, so go and check it out and see all the wonderful accolades that the Satrix team is receiving for all the excellent work that they do. And we’ve met so many of the team members over the course of this podcast series. But today we have someone new, which is really exciting.

So, Lauren Jacobs, you’re a senior portfolio manager at Satrix and I see that they finally managed to persuade you to come out and do a podcast with me. Welcome! I believe today is your first podcast, isn’t it?

Lauren Jacobs: Thanks for having me, Ghost. Yes, it is my first podcast. I’m quite excited, but also a little bit nervous. So let’s see how it goes.

The Finance Ghost: No, it’s going to be great, I promise. It’s much less scary than the markets, that I can absolutely assure you.

Lauren Jacobs: That is true! Yes.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, exactly. So what we’re going to do today, the whole idea behind this podcast, is just a day in the life of a portfolio manager. But obviously I’m not going to miss the opportunity to ask you some interesting questions. Lauren, we were talking a bit off-air about how long you’ve been at Satrix and at Sanlam before that. I think you said you started at Sanlam basically in the global financial crisis, essentially 2008. So probably, I’m guessing, just before everything blew up, was it, or was it in the middle of all the pain?

Lauren Jacobs: Yeah, so I joined Sanlam in around November 2008. I’ve been at Sanlam in the group since 2008, so almost 16 years now. 17 years, almost. I’ve been at Satrix now for 11 years, since 2014. Obviously I came in, I wasn’t a portfolio manager before, so I came in as an analyst and worked my way up from there to do all the hard work. And here I am now as a senior portfolio manager.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, very very nice. Look, I think you’ve gotten to see the incredible growth in ETFs in South Africa. And Satrix has always been at the forefront of that. A Satrix Top 40 ETF was the first ever listed thing that I bought. I can’t remember how many years ago that was now, but certainly very early in my career, that that was the first thing that I bought. I think a lot of people have a similar story, as that Satrix Top 40 ETF has been around for a very long time.

And of course these days, there’s a very broad product suite at Satrix. People think that ETFs – well, actually, I don’t think people think this anymore and I hope they don’t if they’ve been listening to the show, because I’m not sure how they would still believe that ETFs are a bit boring and a bit vanilla because they actually let you do a lot. They really let you do a lot.

Speaking of things that are not boring, I think the term “portfolio manager” is one of those jobs that really comes up a lot when you ask – look, if you ask a toddler, they’re going to tell you fireman or policewoman, take your pick, or I want to be a dinosaur when I’m big, that one too. But once you ask someone who’s a bit older and maybe someone who’s studying finance, maybe someone who’s early in their career, “portfolio manager” is one of those glamour jobs that tends to come up. It’s right up there with investment banker. You know the drill.

So was it always that way for you? Was that always where you were heading or did your road actually take some twists and turns along the way?

Lauren Jacobs: Yeah, very interesting. I actually started off in asset consulting in an analyst kind of role. And it gives you a very broad view of portfolios in general and what there is in terms of access for clients in all investment vehicles. And from there when I moved into Sanlam – and from there I went into private wealth, which was also quite interesting, again focused around clients – but when I came into Sanlam specifically, I was more on the back-end, support services, so performance and looking at portfolios from the bottom-up. Understanding how all the portfolios work, not only at that point index tracking, but also generally in the whole of Sanlam Investment Management. I think that gave me a very good background and understanding specifically for index management, or index tracking specifically, because it’s a very niche role.

People think: what is indexation? You’re just buying the index, you just can buy all the stocks and then you can go on holiday. But actually, you can’t! An active manager can, definitely. They can buy and hold for 6, 12, 18 months and say, oh, they’re riding the wave. But as an index tracker, you are held to your tracking performance. If you are behind the index by 1% or ahead of the index by 1%, you are not tracking. You have to be very close to that index return.

And it’s harder work trying to be close to that index return than actually just choosing stocks and letting them ride the wave. On a daily basis, we have to ensure that your portfolio looks like your benchmark. And any changes to the benchmark – the index changes seamlessly, If there’s a corporate action, if there’s a dividend, there’s nothing that has to be done on the benchmark to change the benchmark. But your portfolio, because it has to then mimic the benchmark, you have to implement that with a trade.

So there’s a lot of thought behind how do I trade this fund to get to that index change, at what point do I trade it? Because all the prices have to be the same as that of the index and how do I take into account the cost of these trades? It seems like indexation is passive, it’s so easy, but it takes a lot of hard work and it also takes a lot of – you have to have a lot of attention to detail, which it’s very important in terms of index tracking.

I started out as an analyst in Satrix and then moved on and learned how we track indices. When I started at Satrix, I think we had about 50 funds or portfolios that we looked after. We obviously had ETFs, we had some segregated mandates and now we’re sitting at 160+ portfolios. And the interesting part is that even though we are now at 160, we’re still only four portfolio managers. It’s important for us, we rely very heavily on technology and we are constantly evolving in the way in which we manage our portfolios using different technologies within the business. Yeah, so that’s just a little bit of what we do on our side.

The Finance Ghost: No, that was super interesting. I have always wondered about the nuts and bolts behind some of these ETFs, and obviously some of them are easier than others, right? It depends on the liquidity of the underlying instruments. We can get into some of that. There’s stuff that’s offshore, there’s stuff that’s local. So that is a pretty interesting area.

As I kind of expected, it’s a completely different job to what a portfolio manager would do in an active asset management environment where they are actually picking stocks, they are expressing a macroeconomic view, etc. And the reason why people are attracted to ETFs is (1) because of the low cost, so that’s a core part of what you’re doing obviously is keeping those costs down, and (2) because the ETFs just take all the emotion out of it, right? It’s not that you are investing in a specific asset manager and their worldview, which can change depending on what happens. The ETF’s job is to track, as you say, so I guess that’s what you’re measured by, right? Your tracking error and your costs to actually get the ETF right. And I’m sure, am I right, that some of them are easier than others? Some of them must give you serious headaches.

Lauren Jacobs: So in terms of indexation and tracking, specifically at Satrix we use physical tracking. So that means we hold the underlying stocks in the index, right? But you can do it one of two ways with physical stock. You can either do full replication, which means that in Satrix 40, there are 40 stocks in the portfolio. They’re the top 40 stocks, so they’re quite liquid. You can buy every single one of them in the same constituent weights as that of the index. But then you get an index like your MSCI World, which is 1300+ stocks. And you can’t necessarily buy all of those stocks – you can definitely buy them, but it’s going to be a bit costly and you know might not get everything you want depending on the size of your portfolio.

So what we do there, is we use optimisation. What it says is we take a subset of stocks in that index and we track the risk and return characteristics of the index using a subset of the 1,300 stocks. So maybe we use 900, maybe we use a thousand. We use a specific optimisation model that then looks at all the risk characteristics of the underlying stocks – where it is in terms of geography, what is the GICS sector and what are the other factors that may affect whether or not this subset can track the index. So, those are the two ways in which we actually track the indices.

Obviously where you have a Satrix 40, where there are 40 stocks and you can get them quite easily in the market if you have to trade for a corporate action or an index change, it’s quite easy to trade that portfolio. You would then do a full replication. But the implication there is that you have to ensure that any change to the index, any corporate action is implemented exactly as per the index or else you’re going to mistrack. So for example, when it comes to index rebalance, we prepare ahead of time. There are definitely some portfolios where it’s only the shares in issuance that change or it’s only the weighting factors that change.

But on top of that, you also have to remember that there are different index providers. So you have your FTSE/JSE, you have your S&P, you have your MSCI, there are a number of other index providers. And some of those index providers treat securities differently depending on is it a global view, is it a local only view, is it a country view from a global index provider, there are all these nuances that you have to take into account.

And maybe you trade in corporate action on one security, but across different indices it’s treated differently. So there’s a lot of preparation around how am I going to trade this fund, this fund and this fund if it’s a different index but the security is the same in all these funds, what is the plan? What time am I going to trade it? When am I going to trade? There are all these different nuances you have to take into account.

Over and above which index provider you are using, you also have to take into account the vehicle – is it a unit trust? Are there CIS rules? Is it an ETF, what are the rules there? Is it a segregated mandate? If you’re tracking offshore, is it a UCITS? There are just these layers of how am I going to trade this fund so that I don’t mistrack, given all of these rules that I have to take into account?

The Finance Ghost: Sho, that’s interesting. That’s genuinely interesting. It’s such a technical role, right? This is definitely not a case of read the market news and then express a view, not in the slightest. This is about taking the rules and making sure you apply them as best you can in the market. And how often are these indices typically rebalanced? Because it’s not every day, right? You’re not sitting and tracking something every day. It’s how often the index is rebalanced. And I’m sure that’s different per index, but what is it? What is the typical timeline?

Lauren Jacobs: So your market cap weighted indices, they generally rebalance once a quarter. FTSE/JSE is the third working Friday of each quarter, so March, June, September and December. And generally that falls close to a public holiday, which is not great for us, but you know, we work…

The Finance Ghost: …I saw the pain in your face there. There was – people can’t see it because this is not a video, but I saw the pain.

Lauren Jacobs: Yeah, generally it’s always around a public holiday, but yeah. So FTSE/JSE, usually those are the rebalance dates. Your MSCI, they rebalance in Feb, May, August and November, so there are different rebalance periods. Those are usually quarterly. For example, your bonds and your ILBs, those rebalance on a monthly basis and they have reweighting and reconstitution.

It just depends what the index is. You have your momentum or your factor indices, those might rebalance more frequently. We have some mandates that track, not Satrix Momentum, but other momentum indices where they actually rebalance monthly as well. It just depends how the index is constructed and what the index is trying to achieve that would dictate what the rebalance periods are. And then of course, when there’s a corporate action, your index also effectively rebalances depending what the construction methodology is. That can be anytime. Whenever a company does something weird and wonderful, we have to then implement it on the portfolio based on what the change is in the index.

The Finance Ghost: And they love doing weird and wonderful, right? This happens a lot. I loved what you raised earlier about the full replication versus the optimisation – obviously, that’s such a cool thing, right? So it’s all about cost/benefit. Technically, could you go own all 1,300 stocks in, I think you said the MSCI? You probably could, but I can imagine that’s very expensive and you’re owning a long tail of stocks that actually contribute a very tiny percentage of how the index moves. And I guess the argument is, well, the cost outweighs the benefit of having that long tail of stocks. And then you use some other clever ways to replicate. Right?

Lauren Jacobs: Yeah. So it’s quite interesting because we obviously manage a local fund where we buy the underlying stocks in the MSCI World which is our Satrix MSCI World Unit Trust. But we also manage Irish-based funds or Irish-domiciled funds for Sanlam Asset Management Ireland and those are UCITS vehicles. We also track MSCI World there. So what we’ve had to do across the two different vehicles, given the different regulations for each vehicle, locally because of your BN90 rules in your unit trusts we’ve actually had to go and hold all the stocks in the MSCI World. So that effectively is a once-off trade because your smaller stocks when it comes to the index reviews there might not specifically be any changes there. So you can then, once you now hold everything, do an optimisation where you every time you trade you’re maybe not buying 1,300 stocks. You only buy a subset when you have to reinvest cash or for corporate action.

Whereas on the UCITS side, we hold whatever, a thousand stocks, and I mean obviously there is an effect on, on what return you get because when you’re holding all the stocks maybe some of the smaller stocks can contribute quite a bit if that is 1.5% and all the small caps are doing well, then you know you do miss out on that if you’re not holding it in your optimised model.

But yeah, I think it’s just interesting how also indices have changed over time. So when I started, I think there were 1,500 or 1,600 stocks in MSCI World and now there’s only 1,300. So it is easier to get all of those stocks and also because most of the time you’re doing a once-off trade and then maybe when you have to sell it to go in for an index deletion.

And then when you look at the FTSE/JSE, similarly when I started working at Satrix there were about 160 stocks in the index. We also did an optimisation on the local All-Share trackers – capped SWIX, capped All-Share, All-Share and your SWIX indices. At that point we also did an optimisation because the liquidity in that tail was not great.

We’re now it’s sitting at what, 126 stocks. So we actually are holding almost all of those. But there are obviously liquidity issues in some of the stocks in the index. And because we are quite a large player, if we need to trade, we can’t go and trade a stock that takes five, six, seven days to trade. So we do look at liquidity there. So, yeah, that’s just how indices have changed over time and how they’re constantly changing and the way in which companies are coming in or going out of the indices. It’s very interesting also, just how it’s changed over time. And having been here as long as I’ve been, I’ve seen a lot of these changes coming through.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, you raised there something I wanted to actually ask you anyway, which is how you’ve basically been – well, Satrix has been a victim of its own success in some regards because some of these ETFs are quite big and so it’s more money that you need to move through potentially illiquid stocks. And people in the market are not stupid – if they know that something’s going to fall out of an index, then you’ve got traders, you’ve got hedge funds, you’ve got people with derivatives who know that there’s going to be selling pressure. If you know something is falling out the bottom of the Top 40 at the end of a particular quarter, you know that the ETFs need to dump that stock. You don’t have a choice – you have to track the index. And if you are a clever trader, you can play all kinds of interesting games around that. And that of course, is part of what you’re up against because you want to try and get out of it at the best possible price. That’s a market, that’s how a market works, right? You’ve got people on different sides of a trade. Everyone’s trying to either make money or manage according to a mandate. And that’s what, what keeps this big machine ticking that we both know and love so well.

Lauren Jacobs: Yeah, so we have to trade responsibly as well. We understand the impact of, as you said, they know we’re coming, they know three weeks before the time we’re coming and we’re going to be selling and we’re going to be buying and at what levels we need to buy and what percentage in the indices. So, when we come to market at index rebalances, we do a lot of liquidity testing beforehand. Once we know what’s going to happen in the index rebalance, we look at what’s coming in, what’s falling out, where we might have issues around selling or buying some stocks in the index.

And we also have to trade responsibly, so we make sure that say we are bringing in a new stock into the index, but if we see that it’s going to take longer to trade into the stock, we might also trade it longer so that we’re not pushing the price on that index rebalance day. We’re very conscious of our size. We’re conscious that yes, we want the closing price, but if we going to push the closing price way down, then we don’t want to affect the market in that way. So we do take steps to ensure that if we are going to be a big player in a stock that we manage that trade, whether it’s over a day or over two days to ensure that we don’t move the market too much in that regard.

But there are also surprises. So over time, sometimes you’ll be surprised on an index rebalance day because not only is everybody coming into the market so the volumes are high on that day, but also it’s usually around – well locally, specifically with FTSE/JSE, it’s usually futures close-out. There’s a lot of volume in the market. So sometimes, we might overthink it and maybe be very cautious. But there’s also a lot more volume at index rebalance because everybody is in the market so there just tends to be more availability of stock.

The more difficult part is actually when there’s corporate actions, right? Because if a stock is falling out and you’re getting cash and you have to reinvest it and it’s quite a large portfolio that’s like a random day in the week, it’s not an index rebalance day when there’s a lot of volume. So that is actually trickier than the index rebalance to prepare ahead of the time and say, okay, this is where we’re coming in.

So we work closely sometimes with the index providers as well and say, look, we understand this is coming up, but this is the impact for us. Is there another way to look at this? Can we bring in a cash line for a few days? So we, as a big provider of index tracking products, we also have to always look to the market and say: this is where we are and this is what’s going to impact us. Can we talk about it? Can we see what we can do?

We are very conscious of our impact, so we work very hard to ensure that we don’t create any changes in the market that could affect all investors.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, brilliant. And that’s what an award-winning team does, right? It’s really, really good to learn some of that stuff. And you do see some really big changes. Hot off the press at the time of recording at least is what’s going on with Aspen. I’m not sure where Aspen is in the Top 40, but if they’re anywhere near the bottom, I don’t know if they’re going to be there on the next rebalancing because that share price was down like 30% when I looked, we’ll see where that shakes out. But this stuff happens and that’s what ends up, or that’s what drives things like index deletions. Or you have another stock that comes roaring up through the ranks and then gets into the index and obviously kicks something out the bottom.

It’s like football, right? Someone gets relegated out of the Top 40. That’s just how this game works. While we’ve still got some time, and because you’re obviously so passionate about everything you do, maybe just a high level question or two more around – I hate calling it passive investing, mainly because Nico shouts at me because he always says that allocating to an ETF is an active decision and of course he’s completely right. But you’ve been in both, it sounds like, and I mean just your experience working in ETFs for this long etc. – you obviously are passionate about the space. You obviously firmly believe in it, as do I. Do you advocate for, even just in your own money because obviously you’re not giving generic advice here, but just with your own money and how you do it, are ETFs a big part of your own wealth creation strategy?

Do you leave a little bit of space to do some active investing and do some stock picking as well or are you busy enough with index rebalancing?

Lauren Jacobs: So I’ve always kind of taken the stance that I’m not an analyst. I don’t know companies back and forth. But I do know that an index gives me this diversification. If you look at your Top 40, you’ve got such a diverse number of companies there and it’s also sometimes the companies you know – it’s an Absa, it’s a Woolies – and you’ve got this wide variety, but it’s in an index that is saying in terms of the market caps, here’s a Satrix 40, it’s giving you a diverse exposure to specific equities, but it’s not – yes, the active decision is choosing Satrix 40, but in terms of the underlying, I don’t have to make that decision. The index makes that decision.

I’ve always thought that using an index strategy not only allows this diversification in terms of the stocks, but also it doesn’t eat away at your performance because the costs are low. So that is where I advocate for index tracking, because the cost of active management and  the cost of “not index managers” is what is eating away at your performance over time. So even if you look at your retirement, because there you can also invest in Satrix Balanced, you can use that fund and the underlying is all index tracking but the cost is low. So, if you look over time, the amount of money you effectively “lose” in inverted commas to that performance fee of an active manager, you gain that by staying in the market with your index tracker and also getting it at the lower fee. So in my personal portfolios and so on, I do obviously gravitate towards your index tracking because that’s my passion. And also, it gives you a much broader environment to choose from. So if it’s local, if it’s offshore, it can be bonds, it can be ILBs, it gives you such a wide variety at such a low cost that you can pick and choose. Do you want to go global bonds? Do you want to go local property? It gives you so many options. And also at Satrix, we have a plethora of products to offer you.

So yeah, it’s also around just giving people options. When I talk to my kids about investing and about looking at an index and what it means, it’s really just showing them that there’s this wide variety of diversified set of stocks in this index that gives you such an opportunity to be able to invest in it to see how your money grows or changes over time and what the impact is of news in the market on those indices.

So, yeah, I’m a huge advocate for index tracking in your portfolio. And I will always be.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I mean it is great. Look, single stock picking is really tough and is a very, very – I don’t want to say dangerous, it’s not dangerous, but it’s something that you need to commit yourself to. It’s not something you can just do on the fly. I think a lot of people learned that the hard way in recent years and I always have mad respect for those who said: I got burnt or I don’t know what I’m doing here – it’s that Dunning-Kruger curve, they go into that like valley of hopelessness or whatever it is, I can’t remember exactly what it’s called – and then a percentage of them say, okay, I’m actually going to commit to learning about this. And they come out the other end with this wonderful skill set and you’ve just learned so much about business and everything else. I always think when I’m writing Ghost Mail, those are my people, the ones who really want to actually get up the curve because, yeah, I mean everyone loves being a concentrated portfolio hero until Aspen goes and smacks you in the face.

I’m looking at the chart now, again, relevant to time of recording only, obviously, but Aspen now over five years has returned a total of 2% after this latest fall in the share price – over five years, not per annum, total. It has absolutely been caned by this latest news flow. So you can go and have 20% of your portfolio in this high conviction position in Aspen and you would have looked like a hero right up until August 2024 roughly. And then you would have stopped looking like a hero very, very quickly.

It’s a tough game and that’s why ETFs I think are so important, even for someone like me who really enjoys stock picking and has a reasonable amount of knowledge I suppose around it, ETFs are just a very important building block for any portfolio. You absolutely have to have them in my opinion. They are the way you can add market returns to your portfolio, general equity exposure with the lowest possible cost.

And also, tax-free savings accounts, that’s the other thing I always talk about, is how important it is to max out the TFSA every year. I max mine every year. It’s my first port of call. Because you can then go and buy ETFs and again, it’s not quote unquote “boring” because you can go and rotate your exposure – basically your TFSA just builds this amazing walled garden over time where you can then rotate your exposure across ETFs without incurring any taxes. Again, that’s the active investor in me using passive instruments. Making Nico proud now!

But it just shows, ETFs are a tool in the market, they can be used for just a monthly debit order and long-term investing: perfect! There are also hedge funds who use ETFs to express a view on a whole sector if they can go short on the thing. It’s a really fascinating area of finance. And I think what’s been so great with this podcast is just learning the nuts and bolts that actually sit behind this thing because it is complicated to run these funds. And that’s your day-to-day.

Lauren Jacobs: Yeah, I mean in terms of ETFs, I’ve been at Satrix for a long time and obviously our product set has really evolved over time. What I’ve learned and what I’ve seen has expanded exponentially since I started here. You know, just the fact that we brought in the feeder portfolios, we’ve done multi asset funds, we’re now doing direct tracking in our Satrix Nasdaq, we’re doing direct tracking on MSCI World, I mean, how many people are actually doing that?

So, every day we’re learning something new. Every day we’re learning what the impact is of things that we do on the portfolio. So it’s always heartwarming for me to see when we get it right. We get a SALTA for tracking performance, for how tight our tracking is. That’s really important to us because we can’t sell a product and say we’re 1% behind the benchmark, that is not index tracking. We have to be super tight. Excluding costs and on a daily basis, if you are anywhere from between 1 and 2 basis points away from the index, it’s trouble because you know a client’s going to see that. And even like you say, your hedge fund managers that are using the ETFs for their portfolios, they also want to know that we’re going to be consistent, that we’re going to be consistent in our tracking. And consistency is very key in tracking.

I think there’s so much room for us to also grow in terms of innovation and technology. The fact that on an index rebalance day we are sending thousands of lines of trades through our trading desk, through all of our systems and how that has evolved over time. We have internal systems that we have enhanced with accessing the JSE data through their FTP site, whereas a lot of places are using emails or using Excel. We’ve got all of this technology at the tip of our fingers to just enhance our process and to ensure that that tracking is tight on a daily basis and for the client also to know that Satrix is consistent. You’re going to get what you asked for, what’s on the box is what is inside. And you can trust us, you can trust that the end of the day we have all our clients’ best interests at heart. We want to make sure that you’re getting your consistent tracking and we also want to learn how we can do it better if there’s a corporate action where we can maybe do a little bit better by taking the stock instead of cash. Can we do that? Can we give you a little bit more performance over and above your costs?

I think it’s important that when people are looking to invest their money, they look at someone that’s going to be consistent, that has been around in the industry for 20+ years and what we offer you is just – there are so many options and you’re going to get your money’s worth if you put it in.

And then in terms of tax-free savings, that’s always been very close to my heart because I think that it’s so difficult these days for anyone to save money. Everything’s getting expensive on a daily basis. You’re paying more and more for petrol, for food, for all of those things. But if you are able to put away as little as R100 a month in a tax-free savings, yes, you may not be able to max it out, but at least you’ve put something away. And that was something that I also learned early on. When you work in a corporate, obviously you can save towards retirement. And it was something that I learned very early on was that if you max your retirement percentage right from the beginning, before you get all your nice increases and your new job titles, when you start getting those increases, you don’t even feel sort of the cost of putting away that high percentage. You just carry on. This is what you get, this is what you get. But at the end of the day, you’re gaining, you are paying your future self by putting away more money every month.

And another thing around tax free savings is if you put away that R100 a month, but next year you get an increase at work and you just increase that R100 by that percentage, whether it’s 6%, whether it’s 3%, you start putting away a little bit more every year. And the way that money grows over time, if you watch it grow, it’s, it’s so amazing that if you just put it in there and you leave it there over time, you’ve got yourself a little nest egg. For the young ones that are coming out of varsity to start working, you’ve got your deposit for your car, you’ve got something to start and to buy a new home. It’s a beautiful thing, tax-free savings, so that you don’t have to pay that tax on it when you pay it out. And if you have kids, it’s really important to start early with them as well, start as early as possible so that they also understand that over time there’s just this compound growth that you can’t get it anywhere else, you can’t get it from buying a toy or whatever else, but just putting that money in over time, that growth is, is very good.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. So I think just to bring it to a close, just given your interesting career and how long you’ve been doing this for – if someone’s listening to this and they are either studying finance or perhaps they are in the financial space and they’re considering a career change – I think whenever you do one of these sort of “day in the life” shows, not that I do that much, or you just speak to someone who’s clearly successful and has done some really cool stuff, it’s always good to ask: what do you wish someone had told you? What is that one piece of advice you wish you had received?

I know it’s such a cliche question, but it is that for a reason, because it’s just that ability to impart just that one piece of wisdom now to everyone who’s listening, which is a wonderful opportunity.

Lauren Jacobs: So maybe I have two things…

The Finance Ghost: …two pieces of wisdom! There we go.

Lauren Jacobs: The first one is that you really have to be curious. And when I say be curious, I mean Google is your friend. If you’re unsure, Google it and ask the questions. No question is a dumb question. In my opinion, no question is a dumb question. You ask that question, Google, you find out what is going on and then go back and formulate an idea of what it is you want and also sometimes what it is you don’t want. But be curious. Always be curious.

And then the second part of it, a little bit of advice, is that nobody’s going to do it for you. So nobody’s going to put your hand up. Nobody’s going to say, oh, I think it should be Ghost, it should be Lauren. Only if you’re there and you put yourself first in front of that opportunity is it going to come to you, because you can’t sit back and think people are seeing your work or seeing your hard work if you are not stepping up and saying: I would like to do this, I would like to do that. That’s been essential in my career specifically, is that I put up my hand for things. Even if I didn’t know how to do it, I was curious. I found out how to do it and I put my hand up and I said, I want to do this. If it means you’re working after-hours to be able to upskill yourself or whatever it is, just put your hand up and put yourself there front and centre because nobody else is going to do it for you.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, brilliant advice on both. Can’t fault that. I think the fact that people are either listening to this podcast or reading this transcript already takes the curiosity. I think the second piece of advice around, just give yourself a chance, put your hand up – it’s absolutely right. You’re going to get exactly the life that you design and the one that you want if you do that kind of stuff.

So, Lauren, thank you. I think this has been a very impressive podcast debut, I’ve got to tell you, I do hope to have you back because I’ve learnt some cool stuff from you today. I thought that this was really great. Thank you so much for your time.

If anyone wants to connect with you. Are you on the cringe festival that is LinkedIn? Just kidding. You know I’m more of an X/Twitter kind of guy, but are you on beloved LinkedIn if people want to connect?

Lauren Jacobs: I am on LinkedIn. You can connect with me there anytime, definitely. But thanks so much for having me. Ghost, this is actually – as much as it’s probably been great for you, it’s also been great for me just to tell my story and just my passion for index investing and it’s been amazing to chat to you and chat about it.

The Finance Ghost: Podcasts are fun! That’s why we do them. Lauren, thank you so much. And to the listeners, thanks for being here. We will be back soon with another Satrix team member. I don’t know – are there any more that you can dust off out of the cupboard, Lauren? Or are we getting – we’ll have to see. I’m always excited to see who I get.

Lauren Jacobs: We’ll have to see. We’ll have to see.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Thanks for your time, Lauren. We’ll do another one of these.

Lauren Jacobs: Thanks.

The Finance Ghost: Ciao.

Disclaimer

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GHOST BITES (Anglo American | Astral Foods | Gold Fields | Harmony Gold)

Anglo American is bullish on getting the disposal to Peabody done (JSE: AGL)

The debate is over the definition of material adverse change

Every corporate deal includes a reference to a material adverse change in the transaction agreement. This is basically an escape clause that allows the buyer of an asset to walk away from the deal if something goes badly wrong while the deal is being implemented. These clauses are important, as deals can take months and even years to be finalised thanks to regulatory approvals and other complicated conditions.

It’s rare to see these clauses triggered in practice, but it does happen. What makes it particularly interesting is that there isn’t always agreement over whether a material adverse change has actually been triggered. Even where there are “precise” definitions related to financial metrics, this is still open to forecasts and debates. The incentive is for the seller to still get the deal done and for the buyer to try wriggle out of it if something changed, so this creates a natural tension.

Anglo American is a perfect example of this, as the disposal of the steelmaking coal business to Peabody Energy hangs in the balance after there was an ignition event at Moranbah North mine on 31 March, with personnel only re-entering the mine on 19 April.

Understandably, Peabody isn’t so sure that this isn’t a material adverse change. Also understandably, Anglo American is downplaying the incident to try and get the deal across the line. Ultimately, it’s a negotiation – and negotiations always have uncertain outcomes.


Astral Foods gives a tighter earnings range (JSE: ARL)

It’s been an unpleasant interim period for the group

Astral Foods published an initial trading statement on 24 March, in which they noted that earnings for the six months to March would be down by up to 60%. They attributed this to a number of factors, ranging from consumer affordability through to higher feed input costs and maize prices. The poultry industry operates with such tight margins that any pressure can cause a nasty swing in earnings.

In a further trading statement, Astral has noted that the expected drop is between 50% and 60%, which means a HEPS range of between 354 cents and 442 cents. They’ve haven’t given any further updates on the underlying factors that caused the drop.

Despite this, the share price is actually 21% higher over the past 12 months!


Gold Fields got the Gold Road board across the line (JSE: GFI)

Is this a sign that we are nearing the top of the gold cycle?

Wise and experienced investors in the market will tell you that acquisitions in the mining sector are often a sign of the top of the cycle. Logically, this should be happening at the bottom of the cycle, when prices are depressed. In practice, due to the general risk-off sentiment that accompanies such a cyclical low and the relative lack of availability of debt, it’s rare to see this happen. In contrast, gold is flying right now, so funding providers are lining up to inject debt into gold mining houses to support deals.

The risk is that acquirers overpay for assets. Gold miners have been having the time of their lives, so any acquisition at this stage is at a premium valuation. Once you layer on a further premium for control and to pry the shares out of the hands of existing shareholders, there’s real risk of overpaying.

When Gold Fields put in an initial non-binding proposal to Gold Road, they were talking about A$2.27 per share plus a variable portion related to De Grey Mining, taking the total estimated consideration to $3.05 per share. This would be settled in cash.

The Gold Road board said no to that, which sent the parties back to the negotiating table. The structure that got them across the line is a fixed cash component of A$2.52 per share, plus a variable portion for Northern Star (linked to the De Grey Mining asset) that would currently be A$0.88 per share. This takes the total to $3.40 per share.

The deal structure envisages Gold Road declaring a fully franked dividend (an Australian thing) of $0.35 per share. This will be deducted from the fixed cash consideration, so that’s not an additional amount for Gold Road shareholders.

The updated pricing is a 43% premium to the closing price on 21 March 2025 before news of the deal broke. That’s a juicy premium, but not out of range vs. what we usually see in buyouts in the market. Gold Fields has made it clear that this is their best and final price and that if a better bid emerges from somewhere, they won’t get into a bidding war.

Although the Gold Road board is happy with this, the final answer will come from shareholders. At the moment, holders of 7.51% of shares have pledged their support for the deal. It’s not uncommon to approach major institutional shareholders, making them “insiders” (i.e. they can’t trade the shares) and gauging their willingness to support a particular price. They will need to reach 75% approval, but a unanimous recommendation by the board to vote in favour of the deal obviously helps.

Funding for the deal will be from new bridge financing, supported by the current net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.73x at Gold Fields. They expect to remain with the 1x target and of course to maintain their investment grade credit rating.


Harmony Gold: record net cash and full-year guidance affirmed

With nine months of the year behind them, the numbers look great

Harmony Gold released an operational update for the nine months to March 2025. Not only has the average rand gold price increased by 25%, but they’ve also enjoyed a 2% increase in underground recovered grades. Sadly, this was more than offset from a production perspective by severe rainfall in South Africa and severe safety incidents, so production is 6% lower. Still, group revenue is up 20% for the period and cash operating costs only increased by 8%, so they are basically printing money at the moment.

This is why Harmony can now point to a record net cash pile of R10.8 billion. If this carries on, they will need to get a Tolkien-level dragon to protect this hoard!

Notably, group all-in sustaining costs (AISC) increased by 17%, so margins haven’t expanded by quite so much once you take those additional costs into account. Another very interesting nugget is that royalties were up by 52%, now representing 4% of the cash operating cost base.

Harmony is investing heavily at the moment as well, with capital expenditure up by 31% to R7.6 billion. This is based on ongoing extension projects at Moab Khotsong and Mponeng.

And although they would obviously be exposed to any moderation in gold prices, the hedging policy has been maintained at between 10% and 30% of production over a rolling 36-month period. This means that as prices have increased, they’ve been able to replace maturing hedges and lock in higher prices on a portion of production.

It’s just a real pity that the announcements that preceded this one were about two separate loss of life incidents. Sadly, mining remains a dangerous occupation, despite the best efforts of the mining houses to make it safer.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A prescribed officer of Sun International (JSE: SUI) bought shares worth R10k on behalf of a child.
  • Hudaco (JSE: HDC) announced that all conditions for the Isotec acquisition have been fulfilled. This deal was announced in January this year, with Hudaco acquiring a substantial South African business with around R500 million in annual revenue. The effective date of the acquisition was 1 May.
  • Murray & Roberts (JSE: MUR) announced that acting chairman Alex Maditse has resigned from the board. He’s been on the board since August 2017. As Murray & Roberts is due to be wound up as part of the business rescue, there are only two executive directors on the board and there won’t be any further appointments.
  • With Exxaro (JSE: EXX) still working to restore trust with the market after the suspension and subsequent resignation of the previous CEO, there’s been another change to the top management team. Kgabi Masia, the former Chief Coal Operations Officer, has agreed to a mutual separation with the company after being with Exxaro since March 2022. Mervin Govender will continue in his role as Acting Chief Coal Operations Officer.

GHOST WRAP – April’s droppers and whoppers

There may have been many public holidays in April, but that didn’t stop the market from reacting to the broader geopolitical turmoil. With recession concerns as a key theme, which stocks did well and which ones delivered a nasty drop?
This podcast is an overview of recent big share price moves among larger local companies on the JSE, revealing some interesting trends. 

The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Forvis Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Forvis Mazars website for more information.

Listen to the podcast here:

Transcript:

April may have been filled with public holidays, but that doesn’t mean that we didn’t see some meaningful moves on the local market. For this edition of Ghost Wrap, I decided to filter for share price moves in April of 10% or more in either direction.

This is rather different to looking at year-to-date moves, as some of the significant activity earlier in the year is still baked into those moves. For example, a number of the clothing sector names still haven’t recovered from the horrors of January, but there hasn’t been nearly as much action since then in those names. By looking at just April, we are looking at recent momentum.

It’s also important to note that I focused on companies with larger market caps in this analysis. Small-cap and even some mid-cap companies with large bid-offer spreads can show substantial percentage moves for reasons purely related to liquidity rather than underlying trends in sentiment and earnings. There may also be names that moved only slightly less than 10% over that period, which means they wouldn’t come up on the stock screener. You have to pick a cut-off at some kind of number! This episode is therefore meant to just give you a sense of where recent momentum has been, rather than an exhaustive list.

And with that, let’s start with the droppers before getting to the whoppers.

The droppers

Let’s just get Anglo American Platinum out of the way, as it bucks the positive trend we’ve seen in the broader platinum sector. The company is on the cusp of the demerger from Anglo American, so there’s just a ton of noise in this one and the share price has been all over the place. Given the strong performance of the platinum sector this year, I’m happy to chalk this up to an anomaly rather than a useful insight, so onwards we go.

As for Sasol, I’m afraid it’s a tragedy rather than an anomaly.  Down around 16% in April, the market just cannot find any love in its heart whatsoever for Sasol, having further punished the stock on the basis of broader recessionary concerns and a production update that was filled with bad news about coal quality and the impact that it is having on Secunda Operations. Although the announcement did have some positivity in it regarding the recent performance of Transnet Freight Rail, this wasn’t enough to improve market sentiment towards the stock. And even when Sasol does seem to catch a break, like when the average sales basket price for the International Chemicals business moves higher, they suffer a knock to production that ruins the numbers anyway.

Sasol is a stock that I would not want to own in a recessionary environment filled with nervous punters. For large investors to get behind Sasol, we need to be in serious risk-on territory. Thanks to what’s going on in global politics right now, I don’t think we are in a risk-on environment. Whilst I completely understand that with cyclical stocks you are supposed to buy them when things look really bad, you do have to wonder what the catalyst for improvement will be at Sasol.

Much as Sasol is known to be a risky asset, we can’t really say the same about Aspen. They are in the pharmaceuticals game, particularly in manufacturing and distribution of drugs. Investors would see this as a blue-chip stock. In fact, they would probably be tempted to refer to it as defensive! Sadly, there’s a difference between being defensive and being a wide-moat business. You can be in a defensive sector, but if your market positioning is relatively weak e.g. because you don’t really hold the power in the value chain, then you can still end up having a bad time.

Aspen took a 24% dive in April based on the market panicking in response to an announcement of a material contractual dispute that could hit EBITDA by R2 billion – that’s a very big number. The broader issue is that Aspen’s business model is vulnerable to US tariffs, which are likely to impact global supply chains and where things are manufactured. If there’s any silver lining for Aspen right now, it’s that the share price at least found some support, bouncing off the 52-week low of R105.75 to reach a closing price for April at just over R124. As I mentioned, that’s unfortunately still a long way down for the month.

The whoppers

On we go to the winners, with a reminder that the local market loves quality stocks. Even though they tend to trade at demanding multiples, these are seen as relative safe havens on the local market. The multiples never seem to unwind, with the share price simply moving in response to earnings.

Capitec is a perfect example – and perhaps the best example, actually. Up 11% in April, the market simply adored the results for the year ended February 2025. And why not? Headline earnings increased by 30% and the dividend was up 34%. There were a number of other really encouraging metrics as well, like growth among high earners and the rather insane market share that they enjoy among the youth population. Sure, a major economic knock to South Africa wouldn’t do their impairments any favours, but this isn’t stopping the market from buying into this growth story. Capitec is a wonderful example of the power of winning market share in a lucrative profit pool, even if the broader economy isn’t growing by much. And yes, the multiple certainly suggests that this should all be priced in, but that’s just not how the local market seems to work. These quality stocks just stay expensive.

PSG Financial Services also came out of the PSG stable, just like Capitec. And just like the bank, this is seen as a high-quality business with a wide moat and great growth prospects. The trick at PSG is the distribution network, which helps gather assets that are subsequently managed or at least administered by the group – for a fee, of course. The recent results show that the model works, with the share price up more than 14% in April. Strong businesses get rewarded in tough markets and although PSG is exposed to overall levels of wealth and where the market levels are sitting, they have proven an ability to grow in almost any conditions. That’s important.

The third high quality business that got the market excited in April was Clicks, with a move of 16.7%. Like the aforementioned companies, this was a results-driven move based on Clicks seeing improved numbers in its wholesale business and ongoing solid numbers in the retail business. Diluted HEPS was up 13.2%. There are a lot of strong, defensive categories in the Clicks business model, supported by arguably the best rewards programme in the country.

To close off, it’s worth noting that market moves aren’t always explained by news flow. Although the three names above all had earnings releases, Woolworths for example was up more than 12% in April – admittedly after some heavy selling pressure towards the end of March that gave it a low base – but there wasn’t a single important SENS announcement from the company in April. The selling pressure continued into the first week of April before the stock caught a bid, so these movements are driven by other factors like portfolio rebalancing by major institutional holders, as well as general market liquidity and key levels that traders watch for. This is why you can never blindly use stock screeners in order to find trends, as there’s a big difference between a meaningful move based on fresh earnings news (or a deal announcement) vs. a move from general volatility. Redefine Properties is another great example by the way, with a 10.5% gain in April and not a single relevant SENS announcement.

So, aside from a couple of names that don’t have obvious explanations for the move, we can take a lesson from what we saw in April: the best names on the JSE (the high-quality companies) are entirely capable of staying expensive, even when there’s broader economic turmoil. In fact, that seems to be the case especially when there’s a risk-off environment! When these high quality companies release results, the market is just looking for confirmation that things are heading roughly in the right direction. These high multiples seem capable of staying expensive.

PODCAST: USA Inc – a superpower stumbles

Listen to the podcast here:


With the recent global markets turmoil, driven by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs policies, questions are being asked about the future of US exceptionalism. In this episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, Annelise Peers, Chief Investment Officer at Investec Switzerland, and Richard Cardo, Portfolio Manager and Head of Single Manager Investments at Investec, who oversees the Investec Global Leaders Fund, discuss the implications of US economic policies, the shifting investment landscape, and the potential for growth in alternative markets. 

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.


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