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Ghost Global (Hasbro | Goldman Sachs | Volvo)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Global (Hasbro | Goldman Sachs | Volvo)

In Ghost Global this week, we bring you the latest news on Hasbro, Goldman Sachs and Volvo.

If you’ve been in the markets in 2022, you’ll know that it’s hardly been a game. It’s been more painful than a family fight after a long night of playing Monopoly, which brings us neatly to Hasbro as our first company in this week’s global update.

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It’s a kind of Magic

In the quarter ended September, Hasbro managed to miss expectations that weren’t terribly demanding. The pandemic is but a distant memory now, as are the toy sales to parents who were desperate to entertain the kids during lockdown.

Revenue is down 15% to $1.68 billion and adjusted operating profit fell by 31% to $271 million. Not such a monopoly, after all.

The problem is consumer price sensitivity in an inflationary environment where people are trying to afford fuel, nevermind games. This drives increased promotions and puts pressure on gross margins.

As highlighted in Magic Markets Premium some months ago (and not because of the similar name), the best business in the group is Magic: The Gathering. This collectable card game has been popular for three decades and continues to grow its loyal fan base, having become Hasbro’s first $1 billion brand. Hasbro’s revenue growth in the upcoming quarter is expected to be relatively flat, with Magic contributing one of the few positive stories.

The release of blockbuster movies is also important, as Hasbro manufactures toys under licence from studios. Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in November should help, along with six more blockbuster films in 2023.

Finally, Hasbro intends to focus on high-margin pre-school brands including Peppa Pig and Play-doh.

The share price has lost 35% this year. It will be interesting to see how the company performs over the all-important festive season.

Goldman Sachs: a painful point in the cycle

There are several major banks in the US. Even in such illustrious Wall Street company, Goldman Sachs stands out as the most iconic investment bank of all.

At this stage in the cycle, that’s not necessarily a good thing.

For investment bankers to make the kind of bonuses that keep Porsche’s income statement ticking over, there needs to be capital markets activity. Bankers need IPOs and mergers in order to earn juicy advisory fees. After a red hot period during the pandemic as vast liquidity hit the market, there has been a harsh return to reality.

Third quarter revenue is down 12%, though at $11.98 billion there is still no shortage of cash to help pay for impressive office buildings. Revenue is 1% higher than in the second quarter, so there’s a modest sequential uptick.

The Investment Banking segment took the most pain, with net revenues down 57% to $1.58 billion. This is purely because liquidity has dried up and markets have been in the doldrums, so those who didn’t list or raise capital during the pandemic aren’t about to rush into that bloodbath. The situation is worsening this year, with revenue down 26% vs. the second quarter.

The much larger Global Markets segment grew by 11% to $6.2 billion, benefitting from a higher interest rate environment and the knock-on effect for certain products. As a partial offset, there was lower revenue in cash products, equity financing and derivatives. Revenue was 4% lower than in the second quarter.

The Asset Management segment couldn’t escape the broader pressures of the market, with revenue down a nasty 20% to $1.82 billion. It’s almost impossible to grow asset management earnings in a falling market, as net inflows would have to be gigantic to counter the effect of a smaller base on which to earn fees. The good news is that revenue is 68% higher vs. the preceding quarter, so there are signs of improvement.

The Consumer and Wealth Management segment grew revenue by 18% to $2.38 billion, driven by higher deposit spreads and credit card balances. In this part of the bank, higher interest rates are helpful. As balances and average rates have grown, revenue is also 9% higher than in the second quarter.

The share price is down 14% this year. That’s a decent result, as JPMorgan has lost over 22% this year.

For truck sakes

We end off this week with Volvo, a group that manufactures far more than just soccer mom cars.

With an increase in net sales of 35%, it’s interesting to note that Volvo sells more trucks than passenger vehicles. The net order intake for trucks increased by 27% to 64,700 vehicles, with the need to replace ageing trucks as a major driver of demand. Fully electric trucks increased by 307%, albeit off a small base.

In passenger vehicles, deliveries rose by 21% to 53,300 vehicles.

With production and delivery records tumbling for Volvo this quarter, the ongoing challenges in supply chain remain a massive irritation. As lovely as the growth in sales looks, the impact gets blunted by a 34% increase in operating expenses. Operating margins have dropped from 11% to 10.3%.

Impressively, more efficient working capital means that return on capital employed has improved from 25.6% to 27.4%. That’s good going in this environment.

Volvo hasn’t been immune to other geopolitical issues, with construction equipment deliveries down 7% because of market declines in China. The war in Ukraine resulted in substantial impairments of assets relating to Russia.

There’s a significant own goal as well, harking back to Volvo violating EU competition rules and needing to pay a lofty fine. That opened the floodgates for private damages claims from customers and other third parties, with Volvo unable to estimate the potential liability at this stage.

Volvo’s share price is down 16% this year, a far better outcome than many other manufacturers. For example, Ford is down more than 42%!

For research on global stocks that will help you trade and invest with confidence, subscribe to Magic Markets Premium for R990/year or R99/month.

Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Afrimat | Anglo – Amplats – Kumba | Astral Foods | Tongaat)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Afrimat | Anglo – Amplats – Kumba | Astral Foods | Tongaat)

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The market raises a toast to AB InBev

Ok, perhaps not a toast – I’m not sure that works with beer

AB InBev closed around 6% higher after releasing third quarter results.

Revenue was 12.1% higher for the quarter and 11.5% higher for the nine-month period. This was helped along by a solid performance from Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona outside of their respective home markets.

57% of group revenue is now through B2B digital platforms, with a monthly active user base of 3.1 million businesses.

Much of this growth came from pricing increases, as total volumes were only 3.7% higher. If you’ve ever wondered whether beer has pricing power, now you know.

Normalised EBITDA was 6.5% higher, with margin contraction of 183 basis points to 35.2%. Underlying profit and earnings per share were fractionally lower.

The group’s medium-term outlook of EBITDA growth of 4% to 8% remains unchanged.

Afrimat does its best under the circumstances

With sharp falls in key commodity prices, one can only expect so much

With a share price decrease of 18.5% this year, Afrimat hasn’t been able to escape the broader pressure on the mining sector despite its diversified model and exceptional track record of value creation. When the commodity market is against you, there’s nowhere to hide.

In the six months to August, revenue increased by 7.2% and operating profit unfortunately dropped by 12.1%, as margin contracted from 24.1% to 19.7%. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) fell by 14.5%, which gives a plausible explanation for the share price move over the year.

Afrimat enjoys being in a net cash position of R772.7 million, having generated R784.1 million from operating activities and raised R680 million on the market.

Looking deeper, the Bulk Commodities segment contributed 76.8% to group profit and benefitted from the Jenkins mine coming into production. The additional volumes helped partially offset a nasty decline in the iron ore price.

Afrimat is continuing its diversification journey, having purchased various stockpiles at Glenover for R215.1 million and the vermiculite mining right for R34.9 million. A further investment of R300 million has been approved by the board to purchase all the shares in Glenover, including the surface and mining rights.

Anglo group companies release their quarterly reports

Anglo American, Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo American Platinum are a mixed bag

The Anglo businesses all release their quarterly production reports on the same day.

Let’s start with Anglo American Platinum, where production decreased by 6% year-on-year and sales volumes fell by a nasty 31% because of lower refined production. The refined production decrease is because of the smelter rebuild at Polokwane, its first full rebuild in twelve years. This is on track for completion towards the end of 2022.

Guidance has been maintained for 2022, with Eskom highlighted as an ongoing issue.

Interestingly, the US$ basket price is down 11% year-on-year but the ZAR price is 4% higher. A weak rand is good for mining groups that export commodities.

Moving on to Kumba Iron Ore, production guidance for 2022 has been maintained (albeit at the lower end of the guidance) despite the impact of strikes at Transnet. The same can’t be said for export sales guidance, which has dropped by between 2 and 3 Mt due to low levels of finished stock at Saldanha Port and the constrained Transnet infrastructure.

Although Kumba achieved an FOB export iron ore price that was 8.4% above the average benchmark price, the challenge is that prices have been under pressure because of the general economic slowdown.

We finish off with the mothership, Anglo American. This includes businesses like De Beers and the new copper mine in Peru. Production is a mixed bag, with steelmaking coal up by 28% and diamonds up by 4%. Everything else is lower year-on-year, like copper (6%), nickel (4%), PGMs (6%), iron ore (5%) and manganese ore (3%).

In case you’re wondering what percentage of global production that rock on your finger represents, De Beers expects to produce 32 to 34 million carats this year. That’s a whole lotta diamonds.

Kumba is down 17% this year, Anglo American Platinum has lost 18% of its value and Anglo American is down “only” 12.6%.

Astral Foods gives a depressing outlook

The poultry sector isn’t for chickens

It really is difficult to make money in the poultry business. The margins are thin and the risks are fat, ranging from avian influenza through to input costs that are outside of the company’s control.

To give an idea of how volatile it all is, Astral Foods released a trading statement reflecting growth in headline earnings per share (HEPS) of between 118% and 128% for the year ended September. That sounds phenomenal, yet the share price was smashed by over 14% on the day.

This year-on-year result is as much about the base effect as anything else. Covid lockdowns severely affected the economy as well as Astral’s ability to recover severe increases in feed costs. In this period, increased volumes led to economies of scale and margins further benefitted from the company partially recouping higher input costs.

Base effect aside, the share price drop was most likely caused by the guidance given for the six months ending March 2023. With feed input costs contributing 70% of the cost of a live broiler, the SAFEX maize price trading at record highs is a huge problem. The current outlook is for “soft” commodities to be high for most of next year. Further selling price inflation will be necessary to mitigate the impact on gross margin, which obviously puts volumes at risk.

To make it worse, dear Eskom is causing problems for the group with load shedding. This adds costs to the business and has led to production cutbacks in response to this issue, putting pressure on the entire group supply chain.

But wait folks, there’s more. With delayed implementation of anti-dumping duties, foreign poultry being dumped in our market makes it even harder for Astral to compete.

When a company talks about “complete erosion” of broiler profit margins, it’s time to get scared. That is why the share price dropped and I’m rather surprised it didn’t drop further.

As a consolation prize, at least the group balance sheet position is healthy. This will be needed to weather the storm.

The share price is only down 1.5% this year.

Tongaat Hulett enters business rescue

The disaster continues for the sugar group

When a balance sheet reaches a certain point, there’s a level of pain that becomes inevitable. After an attempt to recapitalise the company with a strategic equity investor fell over, Tongaat looked even shakier.

It feels like a long time ago that new management was appointed to try and sort the company out after alleged financial misstatements and mismanagement by the previous leaders. The new team joined in 2019, just in time to navigate a pandemic with a ship that had already taken on a lot of water.

Debt has been reduced by over R6.6 billion from a high of R11.7 billion through the sale of assets. Much like selling your household belongings to pay the bond, this rarely works.

Operating on a knife’s edge, further issues like flooding and riots in KZN, along with poor operating performance for various reasons, were just too much for the company to bear. With a shortfall in working capital requirements to complete the 2023 financial year, the situation became desperate.

The board put together a restructuring plan that included elements like disposals of non-South African sugar operations and other capital raising efforts. Sadly, the board doesn’t believe that sufficient equity funding can be achieved within the required timeframe. It was always going to be a long shot.

The immediate timing pressure is the working capital requirement for the current financial year, particularly as performance of the local operations has exceeded expectations. Despite this, local lenders have indicated to the company that they cannot provide the additional funding required. The repayment date of a R600 million facility will not be extended.

Against this backdrop, the South African operations have been placed into business rescue (along with the property division). The Mozambique and Zimbabwe sugar operations are not financially distressed, so they will continue trading as they are independently funded as well.

The shares have been suspended from trading since July. It’s unclear at this stage whether there is any equity value left in the group.

Little bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • Top directors of Standard Bank sold off the shares received under employee share schemes (not just the shares needed to cover tax – but all of them)
    • A director of a subsidiary of AVI has sold shares received under an employee scheme worth R407k
    • A director of ADvTECH has sold shares worth nearly R1.75m
  • Shortly after releasing interim results, Altron has announced the disposal of the ATM hardware and support business of the Altron Managed Solutions division. This is aligned with Altron’s strategy of pursuing capital light businesses. The purchase price is the book value of the business, capped at $10 million. The purchaser (NCR Corporation) will collect receivables of nearly R239 million and pay them to Altron as collected. The rest of the assets and liabilities currently offset each other, so Altron will receive the R239 million and probably not much more. The business generated operating profit of R23.2 million for the six months ended August 2022. This is a Category 2 deal, so shareholders won’t be asked to vote.
  • MiX Telematics has reported its interim financial results. Revenue increased 8% on a constant currency basis and annual recurring revenue is 17% higher on the same basis. Revenue as reported is up 12.2%. Operating margin has dropped from 12% in the comparable period to 6.2%. This is because of acquisition-related costs and higher sales and marketing costs. There was significant negative free cash flow in this period of R192.2 million, as capital expenditure was R240.1 million of which R173.2 million related to in-vehicle devices. Due to a substantial deferred tax charge, the group recorded a loss in this period.
  • enX Group released a trading statement for the year ended August 2022. Group HEPS is expected to be 23% to 33% higher. To give you an idea of the changes underway at the group, the HEPS from discontinued operations is higher than from continuing operations! In this period, revenue from continuing operations was 32% higher and HEPS was 73% to 83% higher.
  • It’s a sad day when Liberty Two Degrees needs to release an announcement that appropriate security measures are in place around Sandton City. This is in response to the US Embassy releasing a notification of a possible terrorist attack in the Sandton area this coming weekend.
  • Hwange Colliery is suspended from trading and remains under administration. In the nine months ended September, total coal production increased by 62% and revenue was 40.9% higher.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
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Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Exchange Listed Companies

It was another quiet week on SA’s exchanges:

Altron subsidiary Altron TMT is to dispose of its ATM hardware and support business of ATMT’s Altron Managed Solutions division. The unit will be acquired by NCR Corporations’ South African subsidiary Spark ATM Systems. The purchase consideration is capped at $10 million.

Emira has published the results of its offer to minority shareholders to acquire Transcend Residential Property Fund. Prior to the offer, Emira held a 45.18% stake in the property fund. The offer was accepted by shareholders owning 22.98% of the shares in issue resulting in an increase in its shareholding to 68.11%.

Spear REIT has disposed of its wholly-owned subsidiary Blend Property 15, the owner of 15 on Orange, to Zimbali Coastal Resort, a Resrev Malta subsidiary, for a consideration of R246 million. The disposal is in line with Spear’s stated strategy to exit the hospitality sector. The disposal consideration represents a 7% discount to the call option price. The funds will be used to settle debt.

Unlisted Companies

acQuire Technology Solutions, a Perth headquartered company, has acquired MTS, a South African-based company specialising in people-centred technology and advisory services such as ESG performance information.

Hlayisani Capital, a local private equity firm, has acquired a minority stake in Tractor Media, a digital outdoor media company. The investment will be used to acquire key sites, new portfolios and invest in advanced and cutting-edge technologies.

Local investment holding company Tabono Investments, has acquired a stake in Advanced Group, a risk management, mitigation and emergency response specialist in the mining sector. Financial details were not disclosed.

Grands Chais de France, French wine giant, has acquired Stellenbosch winery Neethlingshof. Financial details were undisclosed.

Stonehage Flemming, the British multi-family office, is to acquire South African-based investment firm Rootstock Investment Management in a deal which will boost the UK firm’s assets under management.

Inospace, a local owner and operator of serviced logistics, has acquired two properties located in Airport Industria in Cape Town. The properties Sky Park and Alkin Park will be rebranded and integrated into Inospace’s network of sites. The assets were acquired from a family office selling its SA assets. Financial details were undisclosed.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
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Who’s doing what in the African M&A space?

DealMakers AFRICA

Askari Metals, an ASX-listed copper-gold exploration company, is to acquire a 90% stake in the advanced Uis Lithium-Tantalum-Tin Project in Namibia. The stake acquired from LexRox Exploration Services, expands the company’s exposure to the battery metals sector.

Arrow Minerals, an ASX-listed West African gold exploration company, has signed a binding agreement to acquire a 60.5% stake in the Simandou North Iron Project in Guinea, West Africa. The stake will be acquired in two stages from Amalgamated Minerals Pte.

Canadian junior gold exploration company Sylla Gold has entered into an arm’s length letter of intent to acquire an option to earn 100% of the Sananfara gold exploration permit located contiguously south of its Niaouleni Gold Project in Mali.

Access Holdings has acquired, via First Guarantee Pension (FGP) and First Ally Asset Management, the entire issued share capital of Sigma Pensions from Actis. Access intends to merge the operations of Sigma and FGP to create Nigeria’s fourth largest Pension Fund Administrator by assets under management.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has sold Polaris Bank to Strategic Capital Investment (SCIL). The transaction will see SCIL pay an upfront consideration of ₦50 billion and make a repayment of ₦1,3 trillion, the consideration for bonds injected.

Nigeria’s Titan Trust Bank has made an offer to minorities to acquire the remaining stake in Union Bank of Nigeria. The offer is priced at ₦7.00 per share, the price at which the block trade was executed when Titan acquired its majority stake. The remaining 6.59% is valued at ₦13,49 billion.

Mauritian firm Barak Asset Recovery is to acquire a 60% stake in Savannah Cement owned by Seruji. Savannah cement which is headquartered in Kenya exports regionally and is also active in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mauritius.

Real estate co-ownership startup Seqoon has raised US$500,000 in a pre-seed round through Banque Misr’s pilot programme to support startups in Egypt. The funds will be used to grow its team to service its newly launched co-ownership destination in El Gouna.

Moove, a Nigeria-based fintech startup, has raised a £15 million (US$16,8 million) financing facility from Emso Asset Management. The funds will be used to expand its operations in the UK. The company will launch a 100% EV rent-to-buy strategy which will give access to new, zero-emissions vehicles for a fixed monthly charge.

Egypt-based solar energy company KarmSolar has secured EGP47 million (US$2,4 million) in funding from Qatar National Bank for the first financed solar Power Purchase Agreement battery storage system in the country. KarmSolar provides integrated energy solutions across the industrial, agricultural, commercial and tourism sectors, leading the growth of the private solar energy market in Egypt.

DealMakers AFRICA is the Continent’s M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Marylou Greig
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Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Momentum Metropolitan repurchased 44,798,859 shares for a total purchase consideration of R750 million, representing 3% of the Group’s share capital. The shares which were repurchased between August 10 and October 26, 2022, will be delisted and cancelled.

As part of its capital optimisation strategy, Investec ltd acquired on the open market 517,193 Investec plc shares at an average price of 410 pence per share (LSE and BATS Europe) and 379,603 Investec plc shares at an average price of R84.27 per share (JSE). Since October 3rd the company has purchased 37,22 million shares. The purchase programme will end on or before 17th November 2022.

Pick n Pay Stores is to take a secondary listing on the A2X Markets exchange with effect from November 1, 2022. The company’s primary listing will remain on the JSE and its issued share capital will be unaffected.

After months in discussion with its lenders on a debt restructure plan Tongaat Hulett has entered voluntary business rescue. Its Botswana, Mozambique and Zimbabwe sugar operations are funded independently from the company and as such are not financially distressed. Metis Strategic Advisors has been appointed as business rescue practitioners.

A number of companies listed on one of South Africa’s Stock Exchanges have initiated share buyback programmes and each week update shareholders. They are:

Glencore this week repurchased 19,700,000 shares for a total consideration of £97,39 million. The share repurchases form part of the second phase of the Company’s existing buy-back programme which is expected to be completed over the period from August 4, 2022, to February 14, 2023.

South32 has this week repurchased a further 5,322,381 shares at an aggregate cost of A$19,42 million.

Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period October 17 -21, a further 4,127,703 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €210,91 million and a further 831,983 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R1,8 billion.

British American Tobacco repurchased a further 689,584 shares this week for a total of £23,03 million. Following the purchase of these shares, the company holds 214,370,564 of its shares in Treasury.

The only company to issue a profit warning this week was Mix Telematics.

Cognition withdrew its cautionary notice.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

How to own a great car, cheaply

The Finance Ghost
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How to own a great car, cheaply

If you follow me on Twitter, you already know that I’m a hopeless petrolhead. I’ve loved cars since I could walk and I’ve been watching Formula 1 since long before Netflix even existed.

When Warren Ingram invited me back onto Honest Money to talk about the cost of car ownership, I couldn’t resist. I firmly believe that hard work needs to be rewarded, so you’ll never hear me talking about how it only makes sense to drive the cheapest car possible.

No, I have a V8 in the garage and I love it to bits.

Here’s the thing though: it’s possible to drive special cars and do so without breaking the bank. By focusing on cars that aren’t going to lose much value (and by being willing to drive something a bit older), you can create epic memories and lose less money along the way than someone buying a new (and boring) hatchback.

In yet another unorthodox appearance on this great podcast, I talked about the true cost of ownership and the danger of balloon payments on flashy new cars. We dealt with the usefulness of an access bond when buying cars. Most of all, I explained why an older Porsche 911 makes so much sense vs. a new hatchback.

Start your engines!

Another week, another central bank

The Finance Ghost
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Another week, another central bank

TreasuryONE’s Andre Botha gives us more context to this week’s market moves

With a largely bare data cupboard last week, we expected the rand to trade within tight bands. Although that was mostly the case, we saw the rand trading wildly within the R18.00/50 range. With the Fed and US data quiet last week, it was up to new sources for some market direction. One of the sources of market movement was the political situation in the UK.

In a sensational scene, Liz Truss resigned from her post as Prime Minister, just 44 days after she took office. Looking back at her term, it certainly looked like her position became untenable with several economic faux pas happening in such a short space of time. The pound has been trading wildly in the lead-up to the announcement and staged a strong fightback at the start of the week after the new Prime Minster, Rishi Sunak was appointed on Tuesday.

Pound moves during Truss’ term:

Another event that caused the market some strain was the Prime Minister election in China. The Chinese Communist Party elected Xi Jinping as its general secretary for a precedent-breaking third term. Even though the move was not unexpected, the fact that Prime Minister Jinping surrounded himself with supporters in his Politburo Standing Committee triggered a small reaction from the market, because the Committee is full of supporters of China’s Zero Covid policy, which could impede the country’s economic growth if the restrictions are maintained.

Taking a look at this week, we have another few days of minmal market-moving data or events out of the US, which could mean another week for the rand trading within the R18.00/50 range. We have heard murmurs in the market that the Fed could start looking at pivoting in the early part of next year. This has caused the US dollar to trade close to parity against the Euro and improve the market sentiment. This has caused the rand to move back into the R18.10s, firmly within the current range.

Rand remains range-bound:

On the Eurozone front, we have the European Central Bank interest rate decision coming out on Thursday. We expect the ECB to hike interest rates by 75 basis points, which could see the euro gain some traction while also helping the rand. The key, however, is the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde and the way forward for the ECB. Based on the tone of her speech and press conference, we could see some volatility in the market.

The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday had little effect on the markets. It’s likely that the rand will see more action based on the ECB decision.

Speak to TreasuryONE about market risk, managed treasury and other services. For a daily podcast on the markets, add Andre Botha to your playlist here.

Ghost Bites (Bytes | EOH | Famous Brands | Kore Potash | Renergen)

The Finance Ghost
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0
Ghost Bites (Bytes | EOH | Famous Brands | Kore Potash | Renergen)

If you enjoy Ghost Bites, then make sure you’re on the mailing list for a daily dose of market insights in Ghost Mail. It’s free! SIGN UP >>>

The market took a bite out of Bytes on Wednesday

A drop in the share price of over 10% greeted the latest results

Bytes is a leading software, security and cloud service specialist. The company was spun out of Altron, giving investors the opportunity to own a UK-focused tech company on the JSE.

Based on a skim of the results, it’s not obvious why the market didn’t like them. Revenue increased by 27.9% and gross profit was 23.8% higher (admittedly a deterioration in gross margin). Operating profit was 17.7% higher and headline earnings per share was up 17.4%.

The interim dividend per share is 20% higher at 2.4 pence.

As you keep reading, an issue emerges that might explain the market reaction. The cash conversion of profits has deteriorated dramatically, driven by delays in payments from customers. The group hasn’t written off any bad debts and is confident of being paid in full by debtors. Part of the reason is that gross billings to customers is vastly higher than the income retained by Bytes, so any delays in payment of the large amount can destroy the cash conversion ratio.

If you’ve been looking for a range trading stock for your watchlist, check this out:

EOH still needs a solution for the debt

Will Thursday’s results presentation give more details on the balance sheet plan?

If only the income statement ended at operating profit, EOH would be looking good.

In the year ended July 2022, operating profit jumped to R282 million from R147 million. After so many asset disposals, it’s better to look at continuing operations. For only those business units, operating profit increased from R55 million to R100 million.

Sadly, there’s more to an income statement than the operating profit line. Underneath that joyous level, we find the ugliness of the interest expense. This resulted in a headline loss per share of 72 cents, an improvement of 26.5% vs. the loss of 98 cents in the prior year.

Although EOH managed to repay R733 million in debt during this financial year, gross debt was still R1.3 billion as at 31 July 2022. That operating profit seems less enticing now, doesn’t it?

Subsequent to year end, the sales of the Network Solutions business and Hymax SA were concluded, leading to a further R104 million of debt being repaid. There’s still a long way to go.

Even the detailed financial report doesn’t disclose details of the plan to fix the balance sheet. The company talks about “right-sizing the capital structure” and notes that it is a “business imperative” particularly as interest rates are rising. The company expects to finalise the capital structure by early 2023.

Interestingly, the auditors are comfortable with a going concern assumption for EOH. This was achieved through the renegotiation of the senior bridge facility repayment date, which was expected from 1 April 2023 to 31 December 2023.

So what will the plan be for the balance sheet? In my opinion, the likeliest outcomes here are a rights offer and/or a strategic equity investor. Such an investor might be introduced as an underwriter to a heavily discounted rights offer, for example. Either way, I can’t see how the group will manage without a significant equity injection.

Trading at R4.40 per share, I remain grateful that I got out at breakeven above R7 some time ago.

Famous Brands exceeds pre-Covid revenue

Burgers are back, baby

In the six months ended August 2022, Famous Brands managed to beat the revenue achieved in the comparable period in 2019 (with Gourmet Burger King excluded from both periods, as that business is now a distant and very bad memory for the group).

This gives some context to year-on-year growth numbers of 19% for revenue and 121% for headline earnings per share. Unsurprisingly, the recovery in Signature Brands (the full service restaurants) was even more significant than in Leading Brands (the take-away joints).

I have bad news for your calorific habits, as menu prices increased substantially in the first half of 2022 and more increases are expected for the remainder of the year because of inflation.

Speaking of calories, I had a good laugh at this comment:

“While healthy eating continues to gain prominence, it is no longer driven by COVID-19, and consumers also seek indulgence and comfort in their food choices.”

With incredibly strong cash flow generation (cash generated from operations was 7% higher than EBITDA), shareholders don’t need to head for the ice cream queue to feel better about these results. Net debt to EBITDA is down to 1.98x from 4.4x a year ago, a far more palatable level.

A disappointment in the result was the performance of the Retail division (e.g. Steers sauce in the supermarkets). Sales grew by 15% to R121 million, yet an operating loss of R1.9 million was incurred due to product write-offs. The profit in the comparable period was only R0.3 million. If you think the food production industry is easy, you are horribly mistaken.

Going forward, the question is around how Famous Brands will grow. We’ve seen how well offshore acquisitions went, so hopefully there won’t be many (or any) of those. Existing brands like Debonairs can expand internationally, with the pizza chain opening its first restaurants in Oman and Saudi Arabia.

I continue to scratch my head over the lack of a successful Mexican chain in South Africa. For whatever reason, nobody has cracked the Taco Bell or Chipotle code in South Africa. Perhaps I’m alone in my enjoyment of quesadillas.

In the meantime, shareholders can enjoy an interim dividend of 130 cents per share.

A quarterly review of Kore Potash

Here’s a recap for those who haven’t been following this company

Kore Potash owns a 97% stake in the Kola Potash Project and Dougou Extension Potash Project in the Republic of Congo. Rather than being a spud available from your local Portuguese fruit and veg store owner, potash is potassium in water-soluble form that is used primarily in fertilizers.

The company is in exploration phase, so there are no mining production or construction activities currently underway.

Here’s the highlights reel:

  • The Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) proposal to construct Kola was provided by SEPCO Electric Power Construction Corporation, the engineering partner of the Summit Consortium
  • The consortium now needs to provide a financing proposal based on the EPC terms
  • The Minister of Mines of the Republic of Congo decided to remind us of the risks of operating in Africa, by “expressing discontent” with progress and giving the company 30 days to respond

With $6.2 million in cash at the end of September, at least the company can afford good lawyers. I’m just not sure lawyers make much difference in the Republic of Congo.

In reality, the sooner the financing proposal can be obtained, the better. With the EPC proposal still being negotiated, there’s a difficult path still to walk.

Renergen and the inconsistent heating

Although this may sound like a Roald Dahl story, it meant a delay for investors

To Renergen’s credit, the company likes to keep the market appraised of its situation in great detail.

We don’t just know that the commissioning of the plant has been delayed. No, we know that this is because of inconsistent heating from the conduction oil system which was incorrectly installed, an issue that Renergen discovered while testing the helium train.

While fixing the issue, Renergen used the opportunity to connect recently drilled wells, so this takes the plant closer to full design specification.

The priority is to achieve steady state production, with LNG first and liquid helium thereafter. It sounds as though this issue was a three-week delay. The company points out that this plant will run for at least 20 years, so a delay of this nature to prioritise the safety of the plant is a sensible approach.

Little bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • Value Capital Partners acquired another R2.2 million worth of ADvTECH shares. This comes through as director dealings with the group has representation on the board.
    • The CFO of Momentum Metropolitan has bought shares worth R504k.
  • Nu-World Holdings released results for the twelve months to August. These are numbers that the company will hope to forget, as South African revenue fell by 14.2% in an environment of weak consumer discretionary spending. Offshore revenue was up by 14.2%, primarily due to a stronger dollar. Overall, revenue fell by 8.8% and HEPS was 39.9% lower at 394.1 cents. This puts Nu-World on a Price/Earnings multiple of 6x. A final dividend of 149.8 cents has been declared. This relatively illiquid stock has experienced a share price decline of nearly 24% this year.
  • MiX Telematics has released a trading statement for the six months to September 2022. Based on reported earnings, the company has slipped into a headline loss per share position of -0.5 cents (vs. headline earnings per share of 13 cents in the comparable period). The primary driver is a non-cash deferred tax charge of R60 million, with non-recurring acquisition costs of R12.8 million also not helping. Without those charges, the business is still profitable and intends to declare a dividend for the second quarter.
  • Zeder’s special dividend of 10 cents per share has received SARB approval and will be paid on 14 November with a last day to trade of 8 November.
  • The merger of Capital & Counties Properties and Shaftesbury was approved by shareholders in July. Regulatory approvals are still outstanding and the merger is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2023. The companies plan to pay dividends as usual in the fourth quarter of 2022 and will make separate announcements in this regard.
  • In case you’re a small business owner struggling to stay on top of financial reporting obligations, you should feel better knowing that Efora Energy (currently suspended from trading) is still busy finalising its 2021 results.
  • Speaking of new directors, Huge Group has announced a director appointment after unexpected recent resignations of a few directors. Conway Williams has joined the board.

Ghost Bites (The Foschini Group | Jubilee Metals | Oasis Crescent Property Fund)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (The Foschini Group | Jubilee Metals | Oasis Crescent Property Fund)

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The Foschini Group shows that shopper behaviour is normalising

After a volatile year for the share price, the year-to-date performance is -4.95%

TFG (no relation to your favourite ghost) released a Q2 trading update and a trading statement for the six months ended September 2022. The announcements are always incredibly detailed, so we can dig in here.

Let’s kick off with the earnings guidance, as headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the six months to September is expected to increase by between 8% and 28%. That’s a wide range. With a whopping 31% increase in group revenue this quarter, one would hope that the HEPS growth is towards the upper end of that range (recognising that this was a quarterly revenue growth number, not an interim number).

Before you get too excited about the 31% growth, I must caution that there’s a lot of noise in that number.

It’s helpful to know that TFG Africa (which includes South Africa) contributed 67.2% of turnover. TFG Australia contributed 19.6% and TFG London contributed the remaining 13.2%.

Looking at TFG Africa, turnover was up 22.5% overall and 6.4% on a like-for-like basis, so you can see the impact of acquisitions in these numbers. Tapestry Home Brands was acquired with effect from 1 August. If the recent comments on my Twitter page by upset Coricraft customers are anything to go by, the company needs to do serious damage control with customers. TFG may have an interesting time there.

TFG London grew turnover by 4.4% in local currency and achieved margin expansion. TFG Australia skyrocketed 104.5% in local currency, as the comparable quarter was plagued by Covid restrictions on trading.

In a particularly interesting metric, group online turnover contracted by 6.9% as consumers returned to stores. The contribution to group turnover was 8.1% in this quarter (vs. 11.4% in the comparable quarter). The impact was even more severe in TFG London (down 16.2%) and TFG Australia (down 25.9%) as shopping habits normalised. This is bullish for retail property funds.

A key feature of the strategy is the localisation of the supply chain, which the group calls its “quick response” capability. This supported growth in TFG Africa this quarter. In case you’re wondering how the local business makes its money, 72% of turnover in this quarter was in Clothing categories, 11.9% in Homeware and 8.9% in Cellphones.

It’s also worth noting that cash turnover contributes 71.4% to total TFG Africa retail turnover. Cash turnover grew by 24.3% this quarter and credit turnover by 18.3%, with a decline in average acceptance rates as the group used more stringent acceptance criteria.

Jubilee Metals signs off on a busy year

The year ended June 2022 was full of operational achievements

With the release of its audited annual results and AGM notice, Jubilee reminded the market of significant progress made in the financial year:

  • Target production achieved across PGM, chrome and copper
  • Inyoni expansion in South Africa was completed in March 2022, increasing production capacity by 85%
  • Roan copper concentrator completed in Zambia, with ramp-up commencing in July and nameplate throughput rates achieved in September
  • Based on the investment programme, the tangible net asset value per share increased by 40%

Looking at financial performance, revenue increased by 5.4% and EBITDA was 25% lower in a year that was disrupted by the extensive capital programme. Cash from operating activities increased by 11% despite the drop in EBITDA.

The balance sheet looks good, with a positive net cash position.

The share price is down more than 29% this year, a victim of widespread pain in the commodity sector.

Oasis Crescent Property Fund grows distributable income

Even without the use of debt, this fund has beaten inflation over the years

The Oasis Crescent Property Fund is unique on the local market. It provides investors with a Shari’ah compliant property fund, which means no use of leverage whatsoever. As most readers will be aware, property funds and debt go hand-in-hand. In this environment of rising rates, not having debt isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Despite the lack of leverage, the unitholder return of 10.3% per annum compares favourably to inflation.

Although total income decreased by 2.4% in the six months to September 2022, distributable income increased by 13.9%. The net asset value per unit dropped by 2.5% to R22.93 per unit (vs. a traded price of R19.51).

Due to negative fair value movements, headline earnings per unit was negative.

A distribution of 47.11 cents per unit has been declared for the interim period. Your eyes aren’t deceiving you: this fund trades on a much lower yield than most property funds in the market.

Little bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • The group managing director of Distell has sold shares worth nearly R6.8m
    • Des De Beer is still buying shares in Lighthouse Properties, this time worth nearly R1.7m
    • The CFO of Bidvest has sold shares worth R3.4m
    • An associate of the CEO of Momentum Metropolitan has acquired shares worth R0.9m
  • There are significant movements on the Grand Parade Investments shareholder register, with GMB Liquidity now holding 27.88% in the company. Entities called Arakot and Midnight Storm were the sellers. This is all very mysterious. Based on Twitter commentary from credible sources, it appears as though GT Ferreira and Hassen Adams have disposed of shares.
  • Hyprop has announced the reinvestment price for the dividend of 293.64090 cents per share. Investors can elect to reinvest the dividend in Hyprop shares at a price that represents a discount of 10.4% to the 7-day VWAP. The share price will keep moving of course, so the point here is that the reinvestment option is attractive if you want to increase your Hyprop exposure (like I do). The default alternative is to receive the cash, so you have to specifically notify your broker if you want to receive the shares.
  • Zeder’s special dividend of 10 cents per share is being delayed as approval from the SARB hasn’t been obtained yet. An updated timetable will be announced on SENS in due course.
  • A positive impact of the Chinese stock meltdown is that Naspers and Prosus can continue their respective share buyback programmes with a lower share price. Between 17 October and 21 October, Naspers and Prosus repurchased shares worth R1.79bn and $207m respectively. The next tranche should be at a much lower average price.
  • If you are a Stefanutti Stocks shareholder, you should refer to the circular dealing with the disposal of the business in Mozambique.

Massmart shareholders say yes to Walmart

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Massmart shareholders say yes to Walmart

Shareholders are advised that at the General Meeting held on Friday, 21 October 2022, convened to consider and approve the Scheme Resolution and the Delisting Resolution, all of the resolutions tabled were approved by the requisite majority of Massmart Shareholders present or represented by proxy and entitled to vote thereon.

In case you missed the big news on Friday, Massmart shareholders approved the resolutions related to the buyout by Walmart of the retailer. It’s rare to see an approval rating this high, with 99.98% of the vote being cast in favour of the scheme.

Although other conditions still need to be met, this is a huge step forward for Walmart in its plan to improve Massmart’s operations away from the public eye.

You’ll find the detailed announcement below:

results-of-the-general-meeting-of-massmaryt-shareholders

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