Sunday, November 2, 2025
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Ghost Bites (Balwin | Blu Label – Cell C | Coronation | KAL | Optasia – Ethos Capital Partners | Sirius Real Estate | Southern Palladium | Spear REIT)

Balwin is having a much better time of things (JSE: BWN)

Imagine what further interest rate decreases could achieve?

Balwin has been a tough story in the aftermath of the pandemic, as high interest rates really hurt demand for properties. Just take a look at this share price chart for context:

As you’ll notice on the chart though, there’s been quite a rally in the past few months. Balwin is up more than 40% over six months, rewarding those who managed to get the timing right.

The results for the six months to August justify the move, with a trading statement telling us that HEPS will be up by between 25% and 30%. The midpoint of the guided range suggests interim HEPS of 20.735 cents. If we make the dangerous assumption of annualising this number, we arrive at a forward P/E multiple of 6.6x.

Balwin isn’t dirt cheap anymore, but it’s still cheap – provided that this performance can continue and free cash flow looks good. To help with that assessment, detailed results are expected to be released on 28 October.


Another day, another Cell C presentation by Blu Label (JSE: BLU)

This brings the tally to three presentations in the past month or so

With Cell C being dressed up for its IPO, Blu Label is doing everything possible to keep the market appraised of the progress of the pre-IPO restructuring and the strategy of the company. That’s exactly what they need to do at this stage in the process, so this isn’t a surprise.

The trigger for the latest presentation is in all likelihood the Blu Label shareholder meeting that took place on Monday 20th October (the day of release of the presentation). There are many complex steps to this dance, as the web of balance sheet relationships between Blu Label’s subsidiary TPC and Cell C would make even the most ambitious spider blush.

Shareholders said yes to the dress on this one, with holders of 99.99% of shares present at the meeting voting in favour of the transaction. I think the other 0.01% of holders are probably still trying to understand the presentations.

To get involved here, investors would need to take a leap of faith. If you look at Cell C in its pre-restructuring form, growth in revenue was only 1.9% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. But after the adjustments for the restructuring, the pro forma 2025 number is 26.4% higher than the prior year (this isn’t an indication of maintainable growth). You’ll find a similar theme in EBITDA in terms of the adjustments to 2025 making a big difference. This limits the usefulness of historical numbers and makes the guidance that much more important, with Cell C expecting net revenue growth in the medium-term of mid-single digits and EBIT margin of mid-to-high teens. They intend to pay 30% to 50% of free cash flow as a dividend, while maintaining the balance sheet at a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 1x.

When all is said and done, the group will have gross debt to EBITDA of 1.3x. Importantly, almost half the debt is related to leases, with the rest related to financial debt.

Leases are a constant source of irritation in financials at the moment. For example, Cell C’s free cash flow conversion rate is 39.4%. That sounds unexciting for a capex-light model, but this is based on free cash flow as a percentage of EBITDA – and EBITDA doesn’t include the cost of leases, which you’ll now find on the net finance costs line. No matter how capex-light you are, you still need to pay for things like space!

Here’s the cash flow bridge that distinguishes between capex in the traditional sense and finance lease payments. It’s a good reminder that capex-light isn’t the same thing as capex-free:

You’ll find all the recent presentations here.


Coronation’s assets under management grew nearly R100 billion in the past 12 months (JSE: CML)

Local market performance would certainly have helped here

There really are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and Coronation releasing assets under management (AUM) without giving a single comparable number in the announcement. This sends investors on a treasure hunt through SENS to find sensible numbers to give context to the latest AUM.

As at September 2025, AUM was R761 billion. In September 2024, they were at R667 billion. That’s a 14% increase in the past 12 months! The trading statement doesn’t give an indication of net flows vs. market performance, but there’s no doubt that the strength of the JSE over the past year helped them.

The HEPS move is badly skewed by the reversal of the SARS tax provision in the base period. If you exclude that, then fund management earnings per share is expected to increase by between 5% and 15%. It’s a pity that there isn’t more operating leverage in this thing, as I’m sure investors would’ve hoped for more exciting earnings growth in the context of this AUM move.

Coronation’s share price is up 22.5% year-to-date. The midpoint of HEPS guidance is around 473 cents, which puts the P/E multiple on just over 10x.


KAL group is having a strong year (JSE: KAL)

Will this bring some positive momentum to the share price?

KAL Group has released a voluntary trading update for the year ended September 2025. They plan to release detailed results on 27 November, so this update is just the hors d’oeuvre for investors.

It’s a tasty one, with the group indicating that recurring HEPS is expected to be between 7% and 13% higher for the period. When combined with a balance sheet in excellent shape (the lowest debt levels in 15 years), things are looking good.

Digging deeper reveals an acceleration across the business. The Retail channel grew trading profit by 6.4% in the second half vs. 2.1% in the first half, with better margins helping to offset some of the broader sales pressure. The Agri channel was the star of the show though, with growth of 12.2% in the second half vs. 5.2% in the first half. This was driven by better farming conditions and exports despite all the fears around tariffs. In the Fuel channel, growth in the second half was 7.7% vs. 2.8% in the first half, with better market share in farm fuel among other drivers of this performance.

This is a positive update with a strong read-through for conditions in the agri sector in South Africa.


Optasia has released the pre-listing statement (JSE: OPA)

Ethos Capital (JSE: EPE) shareholder will want to pay attention here

New listings on the JSE are such exciting things. Sure, you can already access Optasia through buying shares in Ethos Capital, but nothing beats direct exposure.

Optasia has released the pre-listing statement for an IPO that will see around R6.3 billion in value change hands, so this is a meaty transaction. Best of all, this is firmly an emerging and frontier markets story, with Optasia offering fintech services across 38 countries where levels of banking penetration remain low. They have a vast network of distribution partners and financial institutions, with Optasia operating as the platform that connects people to products like airtime credit and micro financing.

In the year ended December 2024, Optasia generated revenue of $151.2 million and had adjusted EBITDA of $75.1 million. From 2022 to 2024, they grew EBITDA at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.1%. Things have really accelerated recently though, with EBITDA up 91.3% in the six months to June 2025! The J-curve is a beautiful thing.

The company itself will raise approximately R1.3 billion, while the other R5 billion will flow from new shareholders to the selling shareholders who will take money off the table. The selling shareholders reserve the right to increase the number of shares on offer if market demand allows it.

Up to 30.4% of the company’s shares may be on offer here at an indicative price of R15.50 to R19.00 per share. Participation in the offer is restricted to qualifying investors in South Africa, which means institutions and those who can acquire at least R1 million in shares. Before your hang your head in disappointment, remember that the shares will trade in the secondary market and hence there will be opportunities to buy shares, although the usual situation would be for the share price to start trading above the offer price. That’s the sign of a successful IPO.

If you’re keen to learn more about the listing, you’ll find everything on the IPO section of the website.


Sirius Real Estate’s defence strategy is on display in the latest acquisition (JSE: SRE)

This is a clever plan to participate in growth in Europe

Before you panic, Sirius Real Estate isn’t about to pivot from properties to panzers. Instead, they’ve recognised the defence sector as a clear growth area in Europe. These tenants tend to have specialist requirements, which is where the opportunity for Sirius comes in. To make sure they get it right, the group recently appointed a retired Major General.

Sirius is known for its dealmaking prowess and they’ve not wasted any time on announcing their first acquisition in this space. The target is a business park near Munich for €43.7 million, acquired on a net initial yield of 7.8%. The anchor tenant is Excelitas, which manufactures optical and photonic (light-related) solutions for the defence, aerospace, medical and industrial sectors. They occupy 72% of the park.

Knowing Sirius as we do, it’s no surprise that they will look to maximise rental from the rest of the space where there are far shorter-dated leases that create opportunities for rental uplift.


Southern Palladium looks to raise A$20 million (JSE: SDL)

The trading halt in Australia means we knew this was coming

Southern Palladium announced a trading halt in Australia last week in anticipation of the company releasing a capital raising announcement. The JSE doesn’t have an equivalent mechanism. The halt in Australia therefore serves as a warning that the announcement is coming, with the shares still able to trade on the JSE. This is just a weird regulatory issue for companies listed in both Australia and South Africa.

Southern Palladium will raise A$20 million at only a 2.7% discount to the 15-day VWAP, while also offering a share purchase plan of up to A$1 million to allow retail shareholders to participate. Bravo Southern Palladium – this is the model that I love to see!

The proceeds of the capital raise will be used to complete the Definitive Feasibility Study, the next critical milestone for this junior mining group. They will also be able to undertake near-term mine development activities with this capital.

The share purchase plan will allow shareholders to each subscribe for up to A$30k in shares. As for the rest of the raise, the company has achieved support from the largest existing shareholder and three new global institutional investors. It’s lovely to see this show of faith in the South African mining industry!


Spear is delivering on its mid-single digits promise (JSE: SEA)

For investors looking for yield and inflation protection, this is the kind of property fund that is appealing

Spear REIT is focused exclusively on the Western Cape, which means that the fund holds a solid portfolio of properties in the most stable province in the country from an investment perspective.

This means that investors are happy to pay up for the exposure, with Spear currently trading at around R11.15 vs. the net asset value (NAV) per share of R12.10. That’s a discount of only 8%, which is really light by property fund standards.

Spear’s guidance for the year is to grow distributable income per share by between 4% and 6%. The interim period is well within that range, with growth of 5.2%. Spear targets a payout ratio of 95%. If the payout ratio stays constant, then growth in the dividend per share will be in line with growth in distributable income per share.

It’s always very important to look at growth on a per-share basis, particularly when a property fund has been active with acquisitions. Although total distributable income is up nearly 56%, the number of net shares in issue is up 23.5%. The fund is much bigger than before, but it also needs to be divided into many more slices.

The balance sheet is in astonishingly good health, with the loan-to-value LTV ratio at just 13.85% vs. 27.09% as at the end of FY25. Most property funds run at 35% to 40%, so this is well below the average. Debt shouldn’t be seen in a negative light in the context of property funds. The idea is to be in a target range that optimises for financial risk vs. return on equity. There are at least three major acquisitions being implemented by Spear at the moment, so the LTV won’t stay down there (and nor should it).

A major driver of return on equity is the yield on which Spear can acquire more properties. Acquisitions during this period totaled R1.07 billion with an average acquisition yield of 9.54%. Debt funding is hard to come by in South Africa at lower rates than this, which is why capital growth is an important component of returns. The Western Cape positioning of Spear has been useful in this regard.

Looking deeper into the portfolio, it’s no surprise that the industrial and retail properties continue to enjoy strong demand. The commercial portfolio is the most interesting one to track, as there’s constant discussion in the market around the steady-state performance for office property and where demand will settle. A driver of growth that seems to be specific to Cape Town office property is the demand by international companies in the business process outsourcing and other sectors.

Overall, Spear remains a consistent and solid performer.


Nibbles:

  • Barloworld (JSE: BAW) announced that the offeror is up to a 62.2% stake in the company. Together with concert and related parties, the stake is up to 85.5%. Will they get high enough to invoke a squeeze-out and end up with 100% in Barloworld?
  • Metrofile (JSE: MFL) is running late with the circular related to the firm intention announcement that went out on 17 September. This does happen in the market from time to time. The TRP has granted an extension to Friday 24 October, so they need to get it out this week.
  • Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) renewed the cautionary announcement related to planned capital raising activity. The circular for the claw-back offer and rights offer is waiting for the sign-off by the JSE of the fairness opinions prepared by the independent expert in respect of small related party transactions. The share price is down by more than 70% this year!
  • I don’t often comment on non-executive director appointments, but my eyebrows were certainly raised by Nedbank (JSE: NED) announcing that ex-Sasol (JSE: SOL) CEO Fleetwood Grobler would be appointed as an independent non-executive director and member of the Nedbank Sustainability and Climate Resilience Committee. If guess if anyone understands how to deal with environmental activism and target setting, it’s a Sasol exec!
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) may have caught up on the financials for the year ended December 2024, but they still need to get the interims for the six months to June 2025 done. This is why the listing is still suspended at this stage.

Ghost Stories #77: What AI means for real-world business – and for your job

AI has dominated the headlines this year and is the cause of seemingly bottomless investment in markets like the US. This is technology theatre at its finest, accompanied by flashy presentations and even flashier share prices at the world’s biggest tech companies.

But what impact is it actually having on the corporates on the ground who are the eventual users of the service?

To unpack where AI works (and doesn’t) in the real world, Shane Cooper (Head of Digital Advisory at Forvis Mazars in South Africa) joined me for a frank discussion. We covered a number of topics including:

  • AI as the “smartphone moment” of this tech era
  • The key considerations for executives in AI implementations
  • Global and local examples of AI implementations in companies like Zeiss, Sasol, Siemens, Walmart and Shoprite
  • How SMEs are viewing and applying the AI opportunities
  • Disruption to the internet economy as we know it
  • Why AI is still “hallucinating” answers to questions
  • The near-existential questions that AI poses for humanity
  • How to think about your job in the context of AI’s strengths and limitations

Buckle up. This is a powerful discussion about probably the most important business topic in the world today. You can connect with Shane on LinkedIn here.

Listen to the podcast here:

Transcript:

The Finance Ghost Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. We’re recording this after there’s been a lot of news flow in the market around AI, although it feels like I could probably say that every single week.

We’ve seen some really big deals between the likes of Nvidia and OpenAI and AMD, and lots that investors have been looking at. And we keep reading about this stuff – we keep reading about AI. It’s everywhere at the moment. I think at this point, if you haven’t at least tried out some kind of LLM, you probably are at serious risk of making yourself redundant in a world where it’s going to be hard even for those who do actually put in the effort to equip themselves with AI knowledge. Please don’t be the VCR in a world of CDs and then DVDs and then streaming – gotta stay on top of these things.

And to help us understand what is actually going on out there in this world, we have Shane Cooper. He’s the head of Digital Advisory at Forvis Mazars in South Africa. Shane and I have not done a podcast before together, so this is Shane’s first time on the show, and I’m very excited to have him here with me today and we’re going to talk about how companies are thinking about this new world and what’s actually going on out there.

Shane, one of the terms that came up is “technological theatre” – what a thing! I love that. I guess today we’re going to understand a little bit more about this big theatre production and especially what it could actually lead to and what the useful things will be. Thank you for your time on the show.

Shane Cooper: Thank you, Ghost, for inviting me and it’s a great pleasure. I’m sure we’re going to be covering a number of critical issues today with your audience.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, this stuff is literally everywhere. As I said, it really is incredibly important.

I’m keen to understand a couple of things – I guess one is more your background and how you got into doing the digital stuff. That’s always interesting. But then on top of that, why digital advisory services are actually such a natural fit at Forvis Mazars, why this is part of your service portfolio?

Maybe let’s do some of the setting the scene here, a little bit about your involvement, but then also why this makes sense at Forvis Mazars in South Africa.

Shane Cooper: Perfect. It probably doesn’t feel natural for an accountant to be talking about tech. I’m an accountant by trade, but when I finished my articles in the early part of the century, I moved into tech pretty much immediately. So I’ve been in tech for 20, 25 years – the last 10 years been part of the Vodacom Group, led strategy there for half a decade, and then was part of one of their startups in the Internet of Things space for the last five years.

And during my time there, what I began to understand is just how organisations are battling to deal with generating value out of data. But coupled with that, we have this emergence of what I guess you could call the consumer version of AI with the launch of ChatGPT – what is it now, well over two years ago? And I think for the very first time we’ve had a significant form of technology find its way to consumers first. We’re now in a position where organisations are looking to embrace it and find ways to get value out of it. And you’re right, the “tech theatre” that you referenced at the beginning of the podcast is exactly where we are.

I mean, I’d love to talk about things like whether we’re going through a period of significant hype or whether there is a bubble, I’ve got some firm views on that.

But tech for 25 years, there is no debate that at the minute the most interesting part of technology around the world today is Artificial Intelligence.

The Finance Ghost: It feels like the biggest thing since the smartphone. I always think about the iPhone and the iPhone came out in 2007 – I was at university, I remember, and it was only the very rich kids at varsity who managed to get one or two of these things from overseas. It was quite a big deal. The rest of us were on Blackberries with broken keypads trying to BBM each other. Those were the days!

And things change, things change really quickly. I mean, just look at what’s happened in not even two decades since the iPhone came out. It feels like AI is that next big push.

And you can’t tease me like that on your views on the bubble without me asking you then, is this technological theatre going to be comedy or tragedy? How’s it going to end for investors? Or is it going to be a little bit of both? Because it feels very much like comedy at the moment when I look at what’s going on out there.

Shane Cooper: Yeah, it’s fascinating. I mean, you referenced the OpenAI investment in AMD and the Nvidia investment in OpenAI. So you have a circular reference where cash is simply moving from one organisation to the other.

The Finance Ghost: It’s that Spiderman meme where they’re all pointing at each other. All of them are Spidermans.

Shane Cooper: Exactly! And you have OpenAI having a conversation with AMD saying, well, how do we fund this? Well, all that OpenAI needs to do is mention AMD in the media and AMD’s share price is going to rise. There we go – you’ve got your funding for the acquisitions.

The Finance Ghost: Ta da! It’s amazing, right? It’s ridiculous.

Shane Cooper: Exactly! I don’t think there’s a debate that there is a bubble and absolutely there are going to be fingers burnt for sure. But I think the broader question is if you – and you referenced the smartphone moment with Apple, I think it’s probably a bit bigger than that. I think probably the more likely equivalence is either the internet era or even more seriously the invention of electricity and the railroads. We all know that the story about railroads, there was a huge investment, there was a bubble there and there were some fingers burnt during that process. But at least the rails were put down. You could argue now the data centres that are being deployed is useful infrastructure for future use anyway. I think the challenge here though is that the depreciation cycles for data centres are far shorter than they were for railroads. So that’s the challenge we sit in.

For sure there is hype. For sure there is a bubble. But is there value in the use of AI? Absolutely! And this is where I think the conversation today is useful in how organisations should be thinking about AI to bring benefit to the organization.

The Finance Ghost: I love the railroad analogy because it is the exact right one I think – it is about building out this infrastructure. But some important differences which you’ve also highlighted there around depreciation cycles, etc. Also, railroads didn’t constantly need energy just to exist. I think that’s a big question mark around data centres. Every time AI gives me a stupid answer, I feel extra irritated by the fact that energy was used to actually go and waste my time with this nonsense.

Shane Cooper: Energy. Water.

The Finance Ghost: All these things.

Shane Cooper: Yeah.

The Finance Ghost: But anyway, this is part of technological progress for us. The funny thing is, if you go back and watch like a sci-fi movie from 30 or 40 years ago and then their idea of “The Future” – the future is inevitably somewhere in the 2030s. I don’t know why that seemed to just grab their attention. Maybe it was, well, what will we be doing in 50 years? People jumping through black holes into deep space, I’m just trying to get AI to actually read a document and give me a correct number here in 2025!

It feels like we are behind where sci-fi would like us to be. And unfortunately there’s going to be a lot of growing pains with that. It means we need to invest in this stuff and we need to see where it all lands. It’s growing pains, right? There are going to be fingers burnt. I completely agree with you.

I think the value of this discussion is understanding what is actually going on at ground level because that’s the test of whether or not this is real. I pretty much ignore – obviously all the listed companies at this point in time, it’s the “turkey voting for Christmas” issue. They’re going to tell you that this is just going to keep going, that demand is enormous.

For listeners, if you really want to go and see the hype cycle play out, just go and look at Oracle and go and look at some of the targets recently put out by them. They’ve got a big investor day in Vegas – of course, where else? – where they will be giving all these extra targets to show how insane the growth is.

Be that as it may, I think you can bring a fantastic view here of what is really going on out there from a client perspective. Let’s move into that because real-life case studies, good examples of where this stuff is actually being done out there as a digital transformation – that’s always valuable. I’ve seen it a lot in the retail space, obviously – eCommerce, omnichannel, big data that comes through there. And it’s easy for us to understand as people because we are customers of retailers who have invested in this stuff. So that’s an easy example, I suppose, but there will be lots of other ones. So let me open the floor to you, to just take us through some really good examples of where AI is actually being used in practice.

Shane Cooper: So I think, Ghost, what is important for me is let me just set the scene quickly around why I’m at Forvis Mazars and what we’re doing, because I think that’s part of what will add more context when we deal with the use cases being deployed in practice today.

So for us as Forvis Mazars, we know that digital transformation – and we’ll talk a little bit about what digital transformation means – is essential in today’s world for organisations to understand and to embrace in order to remain relevant and competitive. Now for Forvis Mazars, we (together with some of the other larger audit firms) built our brands over decades on one fundamental principle, and that’s trust. It’s a highly regulated environment and for us, we obviously have to provide an opinion on financial statements, for which investors and shareholders place confidence in those numbers in order to make the right decisions.

In order to arrive at providing that opinion, we need to have an intimate understanding of the customer. It’s not just a superficial assessment of numbers on the income statement and balance sheet, but rather a deeper understanding of how an organisation functions and in particular the decision-making process that drives performance.

Now when you overlay that in today’s world of technology with Artificial Intelligence, this understanding for us on the levers that one can pull in an organisation is pure gold when you approach AI implementations, because we’re seeing this “tech theatre” play out where shiny tools are deployed and then you have executives, shareholders and board members disappointed by ultimately the outcome of those AI implementations.

Where we focus is on ensuring that the right strategy is in place, that the right value pools are targeted. And then I think very importantly, as you implement the AI solutions, you keep track of how the metrics that you’ve targeted are changing. Because if you’re not changing metrics, then you’re simply wasting your time and you’re simply enjoying a bit of theatre.

If I use that as a preface, I’ll jump into giving a few examples of where AI in particular over the last two years – because let’s remember AI has been around for decades and even if you look at AI in terms of the various elements thereof on Gartner’s maturity curve, you’ll see something like computer vision sitting on the far right-hand side of its maturity because that’s been deployed in particular over the last five years comfortably across organisations around the world. And then more recently you have the LLMs, which is where a lot of the focus is today and moving into agentic AI.

Let’s use a few examples. None of these are Forvis Mazars customers, I thought I’d keep it a little bit generic just to give a sense of how AI is being deployed around the world.

The first one, maybe a little bit close to my heart as I’m an amateur photographer, if you look at Zeiss, the lens manufacturer, they’ve deployed AI-powered inspection systems in 2023 already. And these deployments, all that they’re designed to do is to detect issues with products that they’ve manufactured. The reason why AI is deployed there is because you’re producing tens of thousands of products on an hourly basis, there’s no chance a human QA process can solve that. Historically, QA processes used to be on a sample basis, whereas now you do 100% checks with AI. They’ve trained their engines over years of providing it with images of products that are defective and they simply apply that and an alarm will go off and a product will be removed from the proverbial conveyor belt when there’s an issue that’s been detected. That allows for a significant improvement in the quality of the products that eventually roll off their production facilities.

In South Africa, a little bit closer to home, if we look at one of our investment topic favourites – Sasol. They’ve had an interesting deployment there and I’m mentioned them specifically in that they actually haven’t spent a whole lot of money on AI for automating the process of extracting information from emails. Now, I mention that because it’s a simple use case and it’s a problem that, if you think about emails been around for many decades, it still hasn’t moved on much. Information flows via email can sometimes be hugely problematic because you’re not picking up all of the required information that you need and there’s zero automation in the email process. So they’ve deployed an interesting project. This was actually driven by some champions inside of the business, where when they deal with the extraction of metadata from suppliers, they’re able to immediately identify where there’s missing information and an automated email gets sent back to say, we’re missing information. Now, ordinarily you would have probably hours of human intervention there to assess this, very often missing things, and a simple application of AI technology solves that.

Let’s move on a little bit, maybe back to Europe. Siemens, as an engineering firm, have developed what they call their MindConnect AI platform. They’ve actually deployed this across 50 of their facilities in 2024. And what they’ve done is they’ve moved on from prediction of equipment failure to optimising production lines in real time. Can only do that with AI!

Essentially what the engine has done over the years of its deployment is that it’s understood what are the attributes that eventually lead to equipment failure and how do we pre-empt this by employing various practices during the course of the maintenance process. And what this has done for them is they’ve seen some remarkable improvements in their efficiencies of their operation because they don’t have the typical stoppages of production facilities that one finds in highly mechanical production environments. If we move on, you mentioned retail a little bit earlier. There are two names in the retail space that one should always talk about. And I’m not going to talk about Amazon in this, I’m talking about Walmart and then Shoprite, seeing as Walmart may make its presence known in South Africa in the next year or so.

Walmart are an extremely forward-thinking organisation from a tech point of view. They’ve deployed technology with their partner Wiliot across about a thousand stores in 2024 and they’re using ambient IoT sensors which track every product from warehouse to checkout. And that’s interesting because now it’s a combination of using AI and edge technology to significantly improve inventory management. Many retailers in South Africa battle with inventory management. This is the holy grail – to understand what product needs to be placed on which shelf, where, when in order to optimise your working capital. And also it’s helping Walmart in optimising their store layouts in real time. So a really cool use case.

Closer to home, Shoprite – they’re obviously a bit of the darling of the retail space in South Africa and with their loyalty programme, I think the stats are that they process somewhere around 3,000 card swipes a minute on their loyalty programme. This is a huge source of amazing data for use in their technology hub. I understand that they’ve developed some pretty sophisticated AI and analytics tools to optimise stock levels, also to provide personalised offers which is really important in our – as a sample of one, I know when I log on to my Sixty60, I always have personalised offers based on my buying patterns.

The Finance Ghost: Shane, you’ve touched on a lot of really important points there, one of which obviously being the importance of just tracking metrics in these projects, just to take you right back to the preface to that discussion about some of those real-world case studies. I think that’s very important because we’re kind of in a theme at the moment of people are not quite sure what this tech will do and they’re throwing money at it. You’re given some really good real-world use cases there that make a lot of sense.

Stuff like quality assurance, taking out errors, taking out that human element, I mean that makes sense – people are not great at having a 100% rate of no errors. That’s what we’re bad at. So that’s precisely where we should be using stuff like AI to actually get involved.

I also enjoyed your reference to amateur photography. Adobe is one of the companies that I’ve been following closely. I mean they were the poster child for transitioning into Software-as-a-Service from way back in the day where you’d go to a store and buy your software off the shelf, then you’d start paying a monthly subscription. Adobe was one of the first that took us there and they did incredibly well as a result. But now their share price is really struggling because there’s so much uncertainty over: what does it mean for the creative industry with these AI tools? What does it mean for Adobe? To what extent do people really need Adobe?

Disruption is the thing that just keeps happening, right? That’s how it works in the world of tech and what you’ve referenced there is a lot of large organisations investing in what is essentially disruptive technology, but it’s also in many cases to protect their market share, to protect their leading positions.

Sometimes with smaller companies and challenger brands, the AI actually becomes a really good way to carve out a new market position. Suddenly you’ll see a new business emerge and maybe you’ll also see SMEs that can suddenly compete with the big guns because they actually have access to a system rather than needing an army of people.

I guess that leads into a conversation around the extent to which you are seeing AI implementations in smaller companies. I’m loathe to say small companies because I think most small companies are happy to just plug something into Copilot. Perhaps I’m wrong? Happy to be corrected if I’m wrong there. But certainly as you get into medium-sized enterprises, what are the sort of AI deployments that you’re actually seeing out there?

Shane Cooper: Yeah, I think that’s a good point. I think what we should all remember is that just over two years ago when ChatGPT arrived, it was almost a “where were you when” moment when you first discovered ChatGPT. For some of us in the tech space, it was that profound a moment. Now if you think about small- to medium-business owners, they in their personal capacity would have understood the power of the technology at their fingertips. And I’m for sure clear on the fact that those business owners would have thought about how best to use this technology for their businesses.

That’s what I mentioned earlier on, that you have this consumerisation of technology that now larger corporates are beginning to understand. And corporate friction in the large organisations is a thing. Deploying new technologies into large corporates is a challenge because there are a host of things that one needs to deal with – whether you’re talking about regulatory compliance or policy restrictions, and of course the good old fashioned change management – how is AI going to impact my job? Which we can talk about a little bit later.

In the small-to medium-space, you mentioned Copilot as a technology that organisations are using. And I wouldn’t disparage that. I think there is a powerful set of use cases that one can use Copilot for. Of course, what one has to be aware of, is that if you’re not careful with how you use it, you do run the risk of your data being exposed. Understanding when to use it and how best to use it is critical. I think for small-to-medium organisations, you do need to think about how you engage those organizations to embrace a more secure access to LLMs in order to protect your business.

But I mean, just on some of the use cases, if you think about the typical series of activities that various departments undertake on a day-to-day basis, there is a lot of repetitive activity that one can now use AI for. We’re all familiar with the use of robotic process automation, and now the application of agentic AI inside of the LLM space allows you to execute what we may be a little bit disparagingly referred to as mundane tasks that you can execute on an automatic basis. Whether it is the generation of invoices, whether it is the issuance of POs, whether it’s doing basic reconciliations of your bank account into your financial records – all of that stuff can now be done via a robot. And for us, what we see in this space is that what this does is it frees up the time to do better work around properly interrogating your information and making better data-driven decisions.

The Finance Ghost: This term “agentic AI” has come up a couple of times and I think there are so many fancy terms in this “technology theatre” that I am loathe sometimes to assume that people know what it is. So maybe just because it’s come up a couple of times, can you just give us the TL;DR on what “agentic AI” actually is?

Shane Cooper: So “agentic AI” is in the first word, it’s agentic, so it’s an agent. Essentially what you’re doing is you’re creating an agent to conduct an activity that you’ve instructed it to do. Whether it is to fetch an email, analyse it, understand it, give it context and respond to the email. That could be one agent. And then what you do is you stitch various agents together to fulfil on a task end-to-end. What I think is important just to make sure that if someone does want to embrace this, I do encourage you to insert a human in the loop element there, where there’s some review. As we know, AI does tend to hallucinate and I think that’s important to understand. We’re all hoping that hallucination will decrease over time, because from what we understand over the last few weeks, the designers and builders of these LLMs have now finally understood why hallucination happens.

The Finance Ghost: Well, that is exciting, because then we can stop getting such nonsensical answers from time to time. I don’t quite remember exactly where I was when ChatGPT came out, but I know that I was “navigating the landscape” of a whole lot of articles that suddenly had the same starting sentence. So I think that was when it became apparent to me that everyone was starting to use this thing, which as a writer is just very painful to get through. But it is what it is

I enjoy the concept of stitching agents together. This sounds a lot like The Matrix, which also had a human in the loop at some point. So this feels like the world we’re going to, just go watch a bit of sci-fi and you’ll get there.

Jokes aside, the thing that worries me, and I think that worries a lot of people, is what is going to be the real impact on employment here? Because it is lovely to think that humans are all going to be way more efficient and we’re going to do these fantastic things, but it’s also not the case that we’re just going to flick a switch and suddenly say, oh well, we can do everything we do as a species now, but we can do it with half the number of humans. The other half are still there. They still need to be gainfully employed, they still need to earn an income, they still need to do something. And I think this is the ethical discussion that is honestly only just warming up. I don’t think we’re anywhere close to understanding where that might actually end up and what it might do.

I’ll tell you my theory and then you can tell me yours. My theory is that if your job has an exact right answer, then you’re in trouble. So if you don’t have to make a lot of judgement calls, if you don’t operate in the grey, if the answer is white or black, the answer is 1 or 100, then at some point there is a very good chance that something is going to be trained to get there which doesn’t make mistakes and doesn’t have off days and doesn’t take leave and doesn’t get sick. So for you to justify all of those things that make us human, you’ve got to bring a lot of judgement to the table. You’ve got to operate in areas that are grey, because that’s very hard to train machines to do.

That’s my theory at least. I’m keen to hear yours and your thoughts on the broader impact, just on employment, I guess, and how jobs will change.

Shane Cooper: Ghost, spot on! And if you add a little bit more nuance to what you’ve said around the reference to a job being black or white, if you were to think about it in sort of AI terms, around deterministic and probabilistic, if your job is deterministic, where you have a very particular outcome, for sure your role is at risk. And that applies, for example, to environments that are highly regulated. If you think about a lawyer, although we have heard some very interesting cases around AI being used in the legal space to the rather embarrassing outcome where the judge finds out that case reference that you’ve used is completely fake and made up. That’s happened quite a few times.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, no hallucinating in court! Don’t be doing that with your AI.

Shane Cooper: These conversations are happening today and I do think that the world is going through a crisis, if not necessarily evident to many people, and I do think we should precipitate crisis conversations around AI. If you listen to someone like Dario Amadei who is the CEO of Anthropic, remember he was part of the team that was initially at OpenAI and he broke away. His view is that more than 50% of jobs are going to be affected by AI. In fact, he said more recently that he expects that the bottom rung of employment is going to fall away within the next five years. Now, essentially what he’s saying is that entry-level jobs, whether they are deterministic or not, could be taken up by Artificial Intelligence.

The Finance Ghost: Because, sorry Shane, the problem there is the entry-level job doesn’t have enough probabilistic elements, right? Because people don’t have the experience to operate in the grey. The judgment calls they need to make are not that advanced, right? That’s the issue. That’s what scares me.

Shane Cooper: And that’s why I say it’s more nuanced. If you consider that an LLM today is probabilistic, you can ask it the same question five times and more than likely you’re going to get five different answers. They may be all correct, it’s just the way that the answer is given.

That could be a junior role in an organisation where you’ve joined a legal firm, you’ve joined a consulting practice, you’ve joined a journalism job, and your first year or two or three of activities are relatively, let’s say, simple in the context of your longer journey. Those simpler tasks can be undertaken by a probabilistic LLM. Because the view today is that an LLM is essentially a student, potentially with an honours degree coming out of university.

If one was to talk about the age of LLM, it’s not quite the doctorate student yet, the view is, but it’s a collection of very intelligent honours students.

The Finance Ghost: Hallucinations included, sometimes depending on how their year went at varsity.

Shane Cooper: Absolutely, hallucinations included. And I think that’s what we should remember is that hallucinations are simply errors made by the LLM. And part of the reason for this, is that LLM’s are trained to give a confident outcome. They’re not trained to determine whether something is right or wrong. So they get rewarded if the answer is confident during the training process. Mostly it’s around accuracy, but it’s also about confidence.

The Finance Ghost: That explains a lot about some of the bad answers I’ve been given. The AI never says, well, I’m not sure, but maybe, which is actually what a grad would say.

Shane Cooper: Yeah.

The Finance Ghost: The AI says, oh, it’s definitely this. Absolutely.

Shane Cooper: For sure! And that’s why when people talk about the risk of hallucination in the corporate world, my answer to that is, well, you would review a junior’s work, wouldn’t you?

Assume that for now you have the power of as many juniors as you would like. Just make sure you review the work before you submit it. Over time, as these LLMs learn, just as people do, the margin of error will decrease.

Coming back to the question of the risk on jobs, I do think that we’re moving into a world where there should be huge concern around the impact on jobs. If you listen to, and as a journalist, you’d probably have noticed that the tone of the last year, and potentially more the last six months from CEOs around the world, is that they’re far more comfortable in talking about the fact that jobs are going to be lost to AI than they were before. There was always a reluctance to talk about the risk of jobs being lost. But we are now for sure moving into a space where decisions around hiring for someone who has resigned, there’s a pause that says, right, let’s just see first whether the AI can fulfil the job. So I do think that over the next three or four years we are going to have a fundamental shift in how the job market looks.

Now coming to the point around the benefits of AI and what that can bring to bear in society, is that if we do see a significant uplift in global GDP and the benefits that AI has promised come to fruition, what does broader society and policy makers, what decisions do they make around the concentration of revenues into these larger corporates, these owners of the LLMs, in terms of the broader dissemination of wealth? Because you now have people who are able to do a week’s worth of work in three days, do we go down to a three-day work week? Do we have universal basic income? Because think about it, the AI tools that we deploy are not free. You have to pay someone, largely in the US given that there’s a concentration of the frontier models in the US.

Then there’s the broader debate which we probably have a separate discussion on, which is the slow death of the internet economy. I’m convinced that the internet economy is probably going to die in the next two years. The whole ad generation and sharing of revenue that Google led the path on many, many, many, many years ago – AI is changing that. I think there’s a huge question to be asked around policy making and how people today, who are in the workspace, take a very, very clear view on how their role can be impacted by AI and what they can do to ensure that they don’t become a victim.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, Shane, there’s so many fantastic points in there. I mean, we could probably do another entire podcast or two on just all of the debates around this stuff. So universal basic income – the problem there, right, and you said it is so much of the value from AI is going to flow into the US because that’s where these companies sit, but the people who are impacted by it are sitting everywhere else in the world. And you can be very sure that the likes of Microsoft, etc. are definitely not going to pay a universal basic income back to the people who lost their jobs because of a model built in the US.

There’s a lot of stuff coming down the road which is not pretty. That’s my view, which is not good. I’m equally bearish on Google’s ad revenue business. I must be honest. I wonder how we then end up in a world where there’s actually motivation for people to have niche websites to create this kind of content that were previously supported by Google Ads. Because the AI still needs to go and read something, otherwise how will we ever know what is real or not? I mean, it’s proper sci-fi stuff at the end of the day.

Shane Cooper: I was just going to say: scarcity creates the value exchange. So if there is a point at which content creators no longer feel that they’re getting what they should be receiving, they’re going to stop producing content, they’re going to go somewhere else. That’ll create a vacuum and eventually an economy is going to be created elsewhere. But for sure the disruption that Google is doing to themselves as well as, in particular ChatGPT is doing to the internet economy, is real. I think we’re going to see some real pain for people who generate their revenues from ads on the internet over the next year or so.

The Finance Ghost: If we are lucky and maybe just talking selfishly now because my model has never been clickbait and a lot of other platforms out there are very clickbaity because they just get rewarded for the number of people who arrive and so they write accordingly, etc. If we get away from an internet adverts world, then we also get away from clickbait. We get back to maybe having fewer voices who are credible and then who attract brand partnerships that support that voice and platform and want to get to that audience as per this precise partnership with Forvis Mazars.

So it’s interesting, that’s how this stuff plays out. The other thing I just wanted to touch on before we bring this home, was you mentioned “journalist” earlier and that’s a big part of what I do. But it’s just there’s an important lesson in there actually for people thinking about, well from a career perspective, how are they going to navigate this stuff. I’m also a CA by background. I did my years in banking and now I get to do this for a living, which is fantastic. But I’ve been able to do it because I’ve had to go and learn how to at times look like a journalist to the outside world, managing the website, doing all of that myself, etc. You have to learn how to sell. You have to learn so many different skills and I think that’s going to be the trick. If you’re just sitting there in university right now and you’re saying, well, I’m going to be the greatest XYZ type of lawyer or doctor or accountant or whatever in the world and I’m going to just hyper-specialise – you are looking for serious trouble, I think. Personally, I mean none of us know, but I think you have to get very good at something and then go broad after that. You definitely can’t just go extremely good at something and then sit and say, well that’s it, now I’m safe. That’s just not the world we’re in anymore. You’re going to have to pick a skill to get really strong at and then you’re going to have to learn a whole bunch of other things just to make sure that you are not replaceable by one model or one prompt or one system.

It’s hard. It’s not easy. I’m very glad my kids are too small right now to be impacted by this. By the time they get to university, we’ll know how this panned out. I’m grateful to not have kids going out of high school right now looking for advice because I wouldn’t know what to tell them. I’ll be honest, I really wouldn’t know what to tell them.

Shane Cooper: Yeah, it’s a very difficult situation to be in. If we were to look at the future by seeing what happened historically, the fact is the internet world that gave birth in the latter part of the 80s, early 90s, did give rise to a number of new kinds of jobs and work. So I would imagine the maturity of AI will also give life to a whole host of jobs we would never have guessed today.

I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom. But I do think that given the philosophical prescience of sci-fi authors, we are beginning to reach a point where we wonder about the future of humanity. I mean, isn’t it insane that we can sit here today and talk about how some of the original founders of these large language models inside of Google are talking about the risk that this technology has for humanity? Now, if you just use that as a proxy for the power of the technology and the impact that it could have on our lives, even if we were to assume humanity continues to exist, we do have real existential questions to ask ourselves about what is the meaning of this all and how do we continue to eke out an existence into the future?

So I think if you are a parent with teenagers, the anxiety is real, for sure. For me, ultimately the hope is that people still like to engage with people. In the business of dealing with buying and selling, people still buy from people. My view is that provided you’re a well-rounded human being and you can engage well and you can distill and synthesise information and articulate well with people, you should be okay. But that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be asking yourself some critical questions about how this technology can impact you in your life.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. Just a really good example of a career or line of income that’s come through recently and where I think the model could go, is something like YouTube. Being a YouTuber is an actual thing. People use this to disintermediate traditional media to get a message out there. And people love YouTube! I’m consuming more and more YouTube all the time about niche stuff, like hobby stuff and whatever, because you can just find anything you need, anything you’re interested in is on there. And then you find creators who are thought leaders in a specific niche and they get rewarded accordingly, which I think is fantastic, it’s a good example of where the internet economy still works. I think YouTube is by a country mile Google’s most impressive long-term, wide-moat kind of business. We’ll see how that plays out.

I guess to start to bring this home, Shane, and maybe just bringing it back to business stuff and I’m glad that we could talk so much about the human side of AI because too often that just gets brushed under the carpet actually as people talk about the business application. And the reality is that as a business owner you also can’t sit back and say, well you know, I hate all this and I’m not interested and I’m not getting involved because you’re kind of going to create your own downfall. I think that’s the unfortunate reality. Can’t ignore this stuff, just can’t.

So if you wanted to leave listeners, I guess, with one essential message about AI and business strategy, something that might get them to open a conversation with you to try and understand more about what the team in Forvis Mazars could assist them with, but even just outside of that, what is that essential message around this stuff?

Shane Cooper: Maybe just before I give the formal close on this, is that you’re absolutely right – organisations cannot ignore this. I would prefer that organisations, if they decide not to embrace AI, at least make an informed decision about it. Understand how it’s going to impact your life. If your decision is not to embrace it, at least make it an informed decision. I think that when organisations are considering their future use of AI, they mustn’t think of it as a technology project. It has to be for me, a board-driven transformation aspect of the business. It has to include how it impacts the organisation in its entirety. And please do not let this be the preserve of your technology department or your CFO department. This has to be something that’s embraced by the organisation in full. And I often refer to the principle of vertical and horizontal deployments of AI. Just make sure that when you are embarking on an AI project, pick the value pools that are meaningful. Where are the biggest levers in your business that you wish to either improve or protect? And work hard to understand how AI can impact that environment because then at the very least, you’re clear that you’re building a shield against that competitor who arrives out of your blind spot that you didn’t expect, who’s embraced this technology and looking to make a difference in the industry.

The Finance Ghost: Shane, I love that and I think there’s been a ton of really great insights here, so thank you. It’s been fascinating to speak to you. I’ve really genuinely enjoyed it.

And to listeners, if they’d like to connect with you, I imagine LinkedIn will work. Should they just ask their LLM how to get hold of you and the LLM will hallucinate some kind of incredible answer about your phone number or what is the correct way to find you?

Shane Cooper: They can find me on LinkedIn, it’s Shane Cooper. Or they can find me on the Forvis Mazars website. Name.surname@forvismazars.com if you want to drop me a line.

The Finance Ghost: Cool. Shane, thank you so much. Really interesting times for all of us. And to the listeners, I’d welcome your views here. What do you think about this whole AI world? What do you think is going to happen in the future and how are you using it in business? That’s also fascinating feedback.

So, Shane, thank you so much. All the best with this stuff. You are right at the cutting edge of what’s going on out there right now. Must be very fun, slightly scary. Good luck to you with that.

Shane Cooper: Thanks very much, Ghost. It’s been a pleasure and I look forward to chatting again.

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep112 | IMF Special – Signals from Washington

Listen to the podcast here:

In this special IMF edition of No Ordinary Wednesday, Cumesh Moodliar, CEO of Investec South Africa, and Ruth Leas, CEO of Investec UK, unpack the signals from this year’s meetings in Washington – from the “three Ts” shaping investor sentiment (Trump, technology and tariffs) to the cautious optimism surrounding South Africa’s reform momentum.

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

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Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Ghost Bites (4Sight | Insimbi | Jubilee Metals | Labat | Prosus | Safari Investments – Heriot | Stefanutti Stocks | Standard Bank)

4Sight Holdings has flagged strong earnings (JSE: 4SI)

The share price has had a huge week

4Sight Holdings is up 25% in the past week, with a steady increase in the share price over several days in the lead up to a trading statement that came out on Friday. It’s always worrying when a share price moves a few days before the news comes out.

The news itself certainly supports a positive share price move, with HEPS up by between 25% and 35.4% for the six months to August. Detailed results will be released by the end of October.


Insimbi Industrial Holdings is still loss-making (JSE: ISB)

At least the operating performance looks better, even if HEPS doesn’t

Insimbi has been through a tough time. Aside from the obvious global issues like tariffs, there’s also been great uncertainty in the local steel market, ranging from automotive customers through to the situation at ArcelorMittal.

Against this backdrop, Insimbi’s revenue increased by 2% for the six months to August 2025 – a decent performance under the circumstances. The group has been through a fair bit of restructuring to improve the cost base, with the benefits coming through in a 65% increase in operating profit.

Alas, the bottom of the income statement is still in the red, with a loss of R8.6 million vs. R9.4 million in the prior period. HEPS was -1.30 cents vs. -1.22 cents in the comparable period.

Although cash generated from operations was sharply negative in this period, the company has noted that this was due to the end of the period being on a Sunday. Substantial amounts were received from debtors in the first week after month-end. This is perhaps something for investors to keep an eye on when the full-year results come around.


Jubilee Metals hopes to conclude the disposal of the local operations by December (JSE: JBL)

In the meantime, they’ve given an update on the chrome and PGM business in South Africa

Jubilee Metals is in the process of becoming a focused Zambian copper group. They are selling off the South African chrome and PGM business, with only two major conditions outstanding (one of which is Competition Commission approval). They have received the first tranche ($15 million) of the sale consideration and they hope to get the deal done by the end of the 2025 calendar year.

The company has given an update on the local performance in the meantime, as the deal isn’t done until all the conditions are met. For the first quarter of the new financial year, chrome concentrate production fell 11.2% year-on-year and PGM production was down 10.1%. In both cases, the cessation of a major contract is to blame for the decrease.


Labat’s pivot to “high-technology” may be an hilarious description, but it’s the right move (JSE: LAB)

The days of being a financially dicey cannabis business are behind them

I nearly spat out my coffee when I read the Labat report about their pivot to “high-technology” investments. I’m not sure if they just have a sense of humour or if that’s the description that they genuinely believe is appropriate, but it’s hard not to laugh in the context of what used to be a cannabis company.

Either way, the acquisition of Classic International Trading has made all the difference. The anchor business at Labat is SAMES (South African Micro-Electronic Systems) and the integration of the acquired businesses has clearly gone well. This success in technology has driven Labat to a decision to move away entirely from healthcare and cannabis, with a plan to dispose of this business and transfer Labat’s listing to the technology sector on the JSE.

Despite having a gazillion more shares in issue after capital raising and acquisitive activities, Labat still saw a remarkable improvement in HEPS for the year ended May 2025. The reality is that if you swing from a headline loss of R25.6 million to a headline profit of R125 million, it doesn’t matter how many shares are in issue – you at least have a pie that is worth slicing up and dividing among shareholders!

I do hope that the candid style of reporting continues, as this paragraph in the litigation section was also pretty funny: “In 1999 SAMES (“the taxpayer”) had an assessed tax loss. For some or other reason, unbeknown to the taxpayer, the South African Revenue Services (SARS), disallowed the assessed loss in the year 2000 and “created” a non-existing Income Tax liability. SARS then withheld VAT credits owed to the taxpayer and allocated it to a non-existent Income Tax (IT) “liability”. No further credits, was paid out to the taxpayer to date hereof. This had now been going on for more than 20 years.”

This is a new era for Labat. The share price is 8 cents and HEPS was 13.28 cents, so the group is on a P/E multiple of 0.6x. You won’t see that every day.


The Prosus offer for Just Eat Takeaway.com has been finalised (JSE: PRX)

Prosus will use squeeze-out provisions to get to 100%

Prosus has big plans for its platform businesses. The AI theme is visible everywhere, with the idea being to use these technologies to improve the profitability of the various groups that Prosus has invested in.

The deal for Just Eat Takeaway.com in Europe will be watched closely, as this transaction has been put together under Fabricio Bloisi’s watch as CEO. This makes it distinct from the portfolio of businesses that he inherited from the previous management team. The other reason why the market will pay plenty of attention to this integration is that Prosus will need to demonstrate the true power of AI in making these platforms more appealing, particularly in Western Europe where growth is hard to come by.

The offer has been finalised, with Prosus achieving acceptances from holders of 98.19% of shares in Just Eat Takeaway.com. Extending the acceptance period worked out well, as they locked in a further 8.06% of shares in the company. They will in any event use the standard squeeze-out provisions to get the remaining shares, so the expectation is that they will end up with 100%.

Just Eat Takeaway.com will delist on 17 November 2025.


Safari Investments is set to delist (JSE: SAR)

Heriot REIT (JSE: HET) will be the only remaining shareholder

Here’s something rather interesting: at a time when many property funds are taking advantage of market conditions to raise capital, Safari Investments is taking the opposite approach and repurchasing all the shares in issue that aren’t already held by Heriot REIT. This is essentially a take-private transaction with different structuring, using funds on the Safari balance sheet instead of Heriot needing to go and raise external money.

Heriot already holds a 59.2% stake in Safari. The rest of the register has very thin trade. It therefore doesn’t make a lot of sense for Safari to be listed and incur the associated costs. The more interesting rationale for the deal is that Safari wants to do more development work going forwards, which means that the dividend payout ratio would need to decrease.

Safari’s price for the scheme looks pretty cheeky. R8.00 per share is a premium to the 30-day VWAP of just 2.71%. They are basically telling shareholders that this is their only chance of a liquidity event, so they need to be happy with the price put on the table. Safari’s net asset value (NAV) per share as at June 2025 was R11.77, so they are looking to take the company private at a discount to NAV of 32%.

Safari has received irrevocable undertakings from holders of 34.03% worth of the shares that are eligible to vote. This means that there’s a long way to go to get to the level required to approve the scheme.


Stefanutti Stocks looks set to get a slice of those juicy new profits at Eskom (JSE: SSK)

The Dispute Adjudication Board’s ruling is great news for shareholders

In excellent news for Stefanutti Stocks shareholders (and perhaps not for taxpayers), the Dispute Adjudication Board has decided to award Stefanutti Stocks an additional payment of R685 million based on the Kusile Power Project dispute.

The share price is up by a whopping 51% over six months, yet only 13% year-to-date. It gets even crazier if you look over three years, with a jump of 366%! Stefanutti Stocks has been a highly speculative play where punters had to spend more time digging through the contractual claims than anything else.

When that goes right, it can be lucrative. But such plays can also go to zero, as many speculators have learnt the hard way on the JSE. Punters in Stefanutti Stocks will be very pleased to see the latest announcement.


Standard Bank’s growth continued in the third quarter (JSE: SBK)

Given all the underlying exposures across Africa, consistent performance is great to see

Standard Bank provides quarterly information to the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) as a significant minority shareholder. This is to allow the ICBC to correctly account for its investment in Standard Bank.

To ensure that all shareholders have the same level of information, Standard Bank releases this quarterly update to the entire market. Although the information is much lighter than a full report, it at least gives an idea of the recent performance.

In the first six months of the year, headline earnings increased by 8%. Standard Bank has indicated that this growth rate remained consistent in the third quarter. Earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders increased 10% over the nine months.

The share price is 13.5% higher year-to-date.


Zeder’s net asset value has dropped – and not only because of special dividends (JSE: ZED)

There’s some valuation pressure in the underlying portfolio

Zeder has released a trading statement for the six months to August 2025. They use net asset value (NAV) per share, which is the logical approach for an investment holding company.

The expectation is for NAV per share to drop by between 20% and 23.7% vs. August 2024. In case you’re wondering, it will be between 2.8% and 7.3% lower than the NAV per share reported as at February 2025.

To understand this, we need to look at the expected drop in NAV per share, not just the percentage move. The company has indicated a decrease of between 43 cents and 51 cents vs. August 2024. Special dividends of 31 cents per share explain some of the move, but the rest is thanks to negative fair value movements in the remaining unlisted investments in the period.

That’s not what the market wants to hear, hence the share price closed 6% lower at R1.25. The guided NAV per share is between R1.64 and R1.72, so the fund is trading at a significant discount despite the plans to return as much value to shareholders as possible.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • If I look at the latest share awards at Aspen (JSE: APN), my overall sense is that most of the directors and executives kept all the shares and funded the tax from other sources. Sure, there were some who sold the taxable portion, but I’m certainly used to seeing far more sales when share incentives land at companies. Given the depressed nature of the Aspen share price, this is an interesting signal.
    • An employee of the Designated Advisor of Visual International Holdings (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R5k. It blows my mind that when I try access the company website, I still just get a generic holding page for the domain.
  • Grindrod (JSE: GND) announced the appointment of Kwazi Mabaso to take over as CEO from Xolani Mbambo with effect from 1 December 2025. You may recall that Mbambo is heading across to Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO) to take the CFO role. Grindrod considered internal and external candidates before choosing Mabaso. I’m always happy to see internal appointments, with Mabaso currently running Grindrod Terminals. He also has a lot of prior experience at Transnet.
  • KAP (JSE: KAP) is still deciding on who the new CFO will be to replace Frans Olivier when he steps into the CEO job on 1 November 2025. It’s going to be an important appointment, as the company is under pressure to improve its performance. The company has made “significant progress” in this appointment and expects to announce something soon. The share price has been slaughtered this year, losing half its value year-to-date!
  • Telemasters (JSE: TLM) has a market cap of under R50 million and very little trade in its stock, so the results for the year ended June 2025 only get a passing mention down here. Revenue increased 7.8% and although operating profit was down 16.5%, there was a juicy 59% jump in HEPS. A quick look at the segmental reporting reveals that both major divisions experienced an increase in net profit in this period. The dividend per share doubled to 0.2 cents per share, although that is clearly off a tiny base.
  • Attacq (JSE: ATT) announced that GCR Ratings affirmed the long-term and short-term national ratings of the company. This is very important for the Domestic Medium-Term Note Programme and the cost of debt for the group.
  • Texton (JSE: TEX) has obtained SARB approval for the return of contributed tax capital of 63.87 cents per share (for context, the share price is R3.59 – so it’s a chunk portion of the market cap). The payment date is 30 October 2025.
  • Numeral (JSE: XII), one of the smallest companies listed on the JSE, released results for the six months to August 2025. Revenue jumped by 515% to almost $1.2 million and operating profit was $186k.
  • Due to related party rules, Merafe (JSE: MRF) had to release an announcement for something that seems like business-as-usual and nothing more. The company’s joint venture with Glencore (JSE: GLN) extended a fuel supply agreement with Astron that has been in place since 2020. It will now run until 2030. The only reason why they need to announce this is that Astron is an associate of Glencore and thus a related party to Merafe. As the contract is in the ordinary course of business and has been concluded on an arm’s length basis, no shareholder approval is required.

Note: Ghost Bites is my journal of each day’s notable news on SENS. It reflects my own opinions and analysis and should only be one part of your research process. Nothing you read here is financial advice. E&OE. Disclaimer.

Ghost Stories #76: How private cloud prepares you for a rainy day

Steve Porter gets out of bed every day to make sure that the clients of Metrofile Cloud can keep their businesses running when disaster strikes. In a world of public cloud offerings with all the bells and whistles, Metrofile Cloud’s private cloud business takes a no-nonsense approach to delivering cloud services to South African businesses of all sizes – and with a real person on the other end of the phone when you need help.

In this episode of Ghost Stories, Steve’s candid approach comes through strongly in these discussion points:

  • The layers of risks faced by South African businesses
  • The danger of “sticker shock” in public cloud pricing models and why these models are often overkill for the needs of local businesses
  • The critical importance of having a public cloud exit plan
  • Whether data stored on a public cloud is truly safe and impossible to lose (spoiler alert: it isn’t)
  • The pros and cons of private cloud and where such a solution may be more suitable than public cloud

Steve isn’t for everyone. Metrofile Cloud isn’t for everyone. But if it resonates with you, then this might be the most important podcast you listen to for your business this year. Find out more about Metrofile Cloud here and connect with Steve on LinkedIn here.

Listen to the podcast here:

Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. I come to you in a year where the word “cloud” is basically everywhere. AI is all over the place; there’s a lot going on in this space.

And who better to speak to about the world of cloud and what they do at Metrofile Cloud than the Managing Director of that business? That is Steve Porter – Steve, I’m pretty excited to tap into a proper understanding of not just what you do, but also learning something about cloud along the way. Thank you so much for doing this podcast with me. It must be an exciting time in the world for you and your business. So thank you for doing this.

Steve Porter: Thanks for having us, Ghost. Yeah, it’s great to be here. I certainly hope I can help elucidate cloud. But yeah, let’s give it a crack.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, no pressure. No, I’m just kidding. So I think let’s start with understanding a little bit more about Metrofile Cloud. This is the business that was previously called IronTree, now called Metrofile Cloud. Give us not quite the elevator pitch – maybe a little bit longer than that – just so we get a proper understanding about what you guys do there?

What is the backstory of this business, what does it look like today and what does it actually do?

Steve Porter: So we’ve been part of the Metrofile group for about four-and-a-half years now. Part of the reason why we were purchased and we moved across was we were seriously keen about the mid-tier market.

Historically, what was IronTree was pretty much only SME or SME-based – and certainly not knocking the SME base, it’s an amazing market, but we wanted to see if we could have a crack at bigger types of customers. We’ve learned some interesting lessons along the way. Obviously we come from a small company background, so this is our first sort of corporate or enterprise-level experience – not without its challenges, but I think we’ve made good progress.

The goal was that Metrofile has what they call grandfather accounts, solid historical accounts, and we wanted to see if we could penetrate that with our services. So if I just step back slightly, we were specifically or predominantly based in the SME space and we started with good old online backups in the days of ADSL. The business has morphed quite radically. Backup is still a great part of our business, but we’ve definitely moved up the value chain.

Let me take a step back again. Everything we do is cloud. We don’t put servers down at client’s sites. We only do cloud based services. And there are various reasons for that, but that’s what our business model is.

From a cloud perspective, our specialty is enterprise hosting, SME hosting, disaster recovery, backups and everything around that. At a very high level, elevated pitch, that’s pretty much what we do.

If I give you a summary of why I think we get out of bed, I think in this country we all know we’re two steps away from financial disaster at a personal and business level, I think why we get out of bed is there is joy in making sure the businesses stay up and running. Personally, that’s why I get out of bed.

The Finance Ghost: I think it really talks to the layers of risks that these clients are facing, right? Like you say, it’s the financial risks that seem to be ever present, not just in South Africa, I think it’s everywhere in the world really. But South Africa definitely has its own cocktail of this stuff. And if you can take away some of the technology risks, some of the cybersecurity risks, some of the data integrity risks, then I guess that certainly helps.

Cloud does a lot of those things, right? As opposed to on-prem data storage, etc.

Steve Porter: Maybe if we just start with what cloud really is and there’s that wonderful meme and you’ll see on coffee cups – cloud is just someone else’s computers in a data centre. And if we have to be brutally honest, that’s what it is.

So why do we think we can offer a cloud service, is maybe where we should start? If I use one of our oldest customers who runs a distributed – their IT manager spent every day unplugging, re-plugging, rebooting, fixing. They fix one problem every two, three weeks, a specific problem. We fix that problem a thousand times a day for multiple customers. So what we allow organisations to do is to actually do their job. They should be thinking of strategic problems, business problems, and let us worry about the grunt work.

If I summarise, that is what cloud really is – it’s a scalable solution for business, operational and strategic problems. And I think that’s what we’re good at.

The Finance Ghost: That word gets thrown around a lot these days. I laugh sometimes because when I was in school, “cloud” was very much the thing that rain comes from out of the sky. Good luck to anyone trying to do a school project on that now because if you type cloud into Google, you’re going to find a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with the different types of clouds!

I think for people who are non-techies like me – as an important piece of disclosure, I’m very much a financial guy, I’ve just had to learn a lot about tech along the way – I suppose like tech executives, you have to learn a lot about finance along the way! Cloud really has almost two elements to it as I’ve understood it from you when we were talking about doing this podcast. So the one is the crunching of numbers and a place for that to happen and the other one is the storing of data. And obviously you can’t crunch the numbers if you don’t have the data.

To help listeners understand how Metrofile Cloud fits into this broader landscape, where it feels like there are so many players in this cloud space, how exactly do you fit in, other than just the size of the customers, for example? And how do you compete with these global giants in tech?

Steve Porter: I think there are two critical elements around – okay, so let’s step back. There’s private cloud and there’s public cloud. So public cloud, for all of us out there, we know it’s Google, it’s Amazon, it’s Azure, and there are other small players like DigitalOcean. But principally there’s three. Right? And there’s Huawei. Sure.

What do they offer you? They offer you everything in the kitchen sink and they bill you like your cell phone usage. It’s per-second billing. So for every second that a service is up, you are being billed. That’s got multiple knock-on side effects. If I think back to the early days of cloud, developers would tick multiple boxes and then get what’s called in our world, “sticker shock” – they find out at the end of the month their bill has raced away.

It’s dangerous. And it’s dollar-based and if you don’t pay your bill at the end of the month, your service is cancelled. It’s that simple. You get two emails: hi you haven’t paid, hi you haven’t paid, it’s cancelled.

I think there’s a financial element and then there’s the technical element.

The technical element is they provide services for the type of business in my mind like an Uber or an Airbnb. Let’s use Yuppiechef as an example. You know that Yuppiechef is going to have spikes in Easter, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, Black Friday, Christmas, and I’ve probably missed one or two. And it’s hard to plan for that scale. But for the balance of the year, I would say almost every business in South Africa specifically can tell you what percentage they’re going to scale by. That is not what cloud is designed for, it’s designed for massive spikes.

So yes, they do offer you the ability to scale phenomenally, but there are handcuffs. There are multiple handcuffs. There’s a cost handcuff and there’s an exit handcuff. And one of my pieces of advice to any CTO / CFO / CEO / MD is ensure before you make the leap, you have an exit strategy. That is the most critical.

That then brings us to what we do, which is private cloud. Private cloud is – it’s different, it’s by invite only. Do we want to work with you? Do you want to work with us? Does our billing model work for you? It’s not a sign up, tick the boxes and payable at the end of the month. It’s a different experience.

Before I get down to our technicalities, what is it that we try to do differently to the public cloud providers? Okay, one, we don’t have this scale. We’ll probably never have this scale and I’m completely comfortable with that. But what we do is hold your hand. So in this country, again if I come back to strategic focus that both your technical and your business needs, our goal is to remove that manual, to your point, crunching data and storage data – we take that burden away from you and hopefully will allow you to focus on what your job really should be.

Then if I break down the technicalities, if you look at the basics of any public cloud provider, it’s compute, as in like your laptop or your Mac or your desktop. It’s a means of crunching numbers. So you need a place to store the numbers. We provide that with, in technical terms, S3 storage and obviously server storage. But S3 is where you want to store the large volume data and then we have multiple services around that, that either keep you safe, allow expansion and ensure that if something goes wrong, there’s a second site you can fall over to.

We’re providing the core services of any public provider at a rand-based amount with humans at the other end of the telephone, or WhatsApp these days, I suppose.

The Finance Ghost: So that’s where that term hyperscaler comes from, right? These international cloud giants – and I think you’ve explained it really well there in terms of it allows you to have the big spikes in use. I can understand if you’re a big international ecommerce business or social media or whatever the case may be, I mean that makes a world of sense.

Steve Porter: Uber.

The Finance Ghost: Uber. There we go. Exactly, as you said. That makes sense. But I totally take your point. For the majority of businesses, they’ve got a pretty good idea of how much they’re going to grow by. And so your offering does allow for the retailers to have a crazy month, but it also allows for them to then also have a decent idea of what they’re going to grow at and to then have a more cost-effective offering that addresses both of those things. Right?

Steve Porter: Yeah, I mean I think that’s what it boils down to, right? You’ve got three options. You can go back – okay, so let’s assume your CTO or your MD, when everyone was excited during COVID, you cashed in your on-prem or your on-premises servers and you had two choices at that point: go into the cloud, some private version, or public cloud. I’m guessing 99% went public.

The cost reduction with working people like us is we’re buying hardware at scale. So even your on-prem, even if you went back to on-prem, we’re still going to be cheaper. And what they are not factoring in, is the human element, the reason why they thought – okay, so obviously there was the remote working Covid influx which makes total sense. I think it’s a bit like having a baby – and I’ve never had a baby, so my wife tells me it’s like this – is that you quickly forget how painful it was and you want another one. So now organisations are going to realise that maybe a public client provider wasn’t the right move, so they’re going to go back to on-prem but they forgot the pain. Our job is to take away the pain.

The Finance Ghost: Steve, I think the one point that we really do just need to maybe circle back to there and just absolutely land is that “sticker shock” point. I think that’s an important one. It’s like prepaid electricity versus waiting for your bill at the end of the month when they read your meter. But in this case the meter can really start going – it’s like running everything in your house at the same time x10 and then waiting to see what the exchange rate does to your electricity cost while your meter is running. That’s effectively what it is. The rand has had a nice year in the last 12 months, but that hasn’t been the norm and I wouldn’t assume that that’s going to continue into perpetuity.

So I guess it’s all, it’s again – it’s about just reducing risk. That was something you raised right at the start. Businesses face a lot of risk. This is about taking away exchange rate risk, cost risk and then on top of that addressing a lot of the IT risks. That’s really what the offering boils down to. It’s essentially a homegrown solution for South African clients.

Out of interest, do you have clients elsewhere in the world or is it very much SA- focused?

Steve Porter: So we’ve got, obviously through the Metrofile Group, we have other territories, so Kenya, Botswana, Dubai, we’ve got a smattering of clients in Kenya. But in terms of the rest of the world, no, it’s not our focus.

One of the founders, an amazing guy, David Lees, he said: fish where the fish are. And I think so many South African businesses, I know we’re off topic, so many South African businesses think, how can we expand our wallet? Let’s go either into Africa or international.

There’s enough fish in the pond here and it’s a beautiful pond.

So I just want to go back to a point you said a few seconds ago, the metric – you’re spot on – the metric is 10x. Your cost of data storage, data compute, going to a public provider is 10x what our cost is or what on-prem would be. And on their marketing, I remember when Amazon first came into this country, we were sitting in some dev conference and they’re like, we are the cheapest in the world! I remember Dirk putting up his hand saying, but how is that possible? And he just flat out: we’re the cheapest.

What public providers are, cloud providers are, is marketing engines. They can push a message into the market at a scale that none of us can replicate. And whether the messaging is correct or not, it’s pervasive. If I think about how they cost – and I think this is so interesting, we cost all-in, so when you take a product from us, we want you to be as safe as possible. As an example, you would have your hosting application, you would have cybersecurity, you would have four hourly backups, you would have disaster recovery, because there’s no point not having it.

Then our partners would come to us as an example and say, but Amazon’s cheaper. And you look at their costing, it’s like, well, all they’re giving you is the base. You’ve still got to do all the rest and you don’t know what those prices are yet. So it’s clever, obviously, I have other words for it, but it is certainly clever. And it’s forced us to adjust how we approach our customers, which is maybe not a bad thing, but it’s not being true to the business.

Their job and our job, and I suppose maybe their job is different, again is to ensure that your data is absolutely 100% rock solid safe. I want your MDs, your CEOs, your CTOs, I want you to sleep well at night and not have to stress around any chance of your business being down on a Monday morning. That should be the last thing on your mind.

The Finance Ghost: Thanks, Steve. We’ve definitely landed the point there around just the risk of defaulting to the really big names and why Metrofile Cloud is at least an alternative that people should be considering. I guess that’s the overarching point.

And there’s some other stuff here that is well worth landing and I was quite surprised to learn this when you mentioned it to me. I distinctly recall thinking about everything I have saved on my OneDrive – and the fact that I don’t really have it saved anywhere else – and that is whether or not cloud is actually always safe. Because especially for tech noobs like me, I kind of think, well, I’m just going to save this to the cloud and that’s it, all is well, when I need it, that cloud will rain my data down upon me and nothing will go wrong.

But that’s not necessarily a guarantee, right? There have been some real world data losses. So I think let’s just unpack that a little bit, particularly on public cloud obviously. What have been some of these examples where things have actually gone wrong and then what kind of recourse do the customers of these cloud providers actually have?

Steve Porter: It’s a great – yeah, I don’t read terms and conditions, I don’t read manuals. I’m stupid. I should have learned at this age by now to read the manual. If you look at financial cloud providers and public cloud providers, they stipulate in their terms and conditions that you’re liable for your data, they’re not. And I think it’s something we take for granted.

If you look at the cloud model, what are they selling you? They’re selling you redundancy by putting out three points of presence in a country – POPs. So they’ll have one in Cape Town, one in Joburg and one wherever else. And in theory, what that’s meant to do is provide you redundancy. And I think even in South Africa we’ve all seen what happens when an internet cable is damaged or there’s a latency increase.

But then the final and the scariest part is, well, what happens if the data actually is gone? There’s a wonderful case study from Google, I think – when was this? – in May 2024. It was a company called UniSuper. They’re a R135 billion business and their data was wiped out by basic admin error at Google. Gone, absolutely gone!

UniSuper had done backups, but they’re old. They recovered some of their data. They were down from May 2nd to May 15th. Think of that from a $135 billion business in terms of downtime and cost. I suppose what they will have learned in the process is what we know, is that just because you’re in the cloud doesn’t mean you don’t need to take care of data governance and data security. It’s on you! It’s absolutely on you!

And you will only find out – it’s a bit like that when someone leaves their laptop in the car in South Africa and you think, I’m just going to nip out quickly to the shops and I’m sure it’ll be fine. And that’s the same mentality. It’s not – it will be fine, for 99.9% of the time it’s probably going to be okay – but do I want to be or do you want to be that business that makes that mistake? And I think, if you take the South African context again, there are no safety nets in this country. If your business goes down for days or weeks or months, which we’ve seen, what’s the effect on you? What’s the effect on the business? What’s the effect on your employees?

There are no safety nets.

So I think part of the problem with being in South Africa, in the tech space, or most spaces, is we are slightly behind the rest of the world and we always have been and we probably always will be. And there’s strengths and weaknesses to both of those.

From a data governance perspective and a business risk perspective, it is on you as the business owner to ensure that your data – which second to people, is the lifeblood of your organisation. And there are multiple strategies for that. But it’s time for us to realise that we are the ones that are responsible. The American providers, the cloud providers, it is not their responsibility.

The Finance Ghost: You can imagine if it was a huge Australian financial services business, in the case of UniSuper, that went through that – and I was reading now the joint statement between them and Google at the time it happened, which of course is full of the usual PR gumpff, “inadvertent misconfiguration during provisioning”, AKA fat fingers – this does happen. But the point is that if that can happen to such a big client, then little old me has got zero chance. There’s absolutely no chance. And little old South African SME, frankly, never mind little old me, has also pretty much got zero chance.

I can imagine a world in which that can get pretty nasty and I guess the lesson here is you’ve got to think about backups alongside cloud. It is not the silver bullet that basically solves everything, but I guess private cloud has some advantages in that regard, in terms of obviously what you offer. And I guess what you’re always up against is people going the public cloud route by default. It’s the “nobody gets fired for hiring IBM” issue. Anyone who has ever been, for want of a better description, a challenger brand in any kind of advisory business, tech business, take your pick, understands the frustration of even where your product is, in some regards better and in some regards worse – it’s definitely not suitable for everyone. But even where you are better for someone, it’s so hard to get them to just walk away from the big default brand.

This is why I’m an investor in the big default brands. On the other side of all of this, as a Microsoft shareholder, I’m listening to this and going, yeah, I’m feeling good about my cloud investment there, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s great for the – the best choice for clients all the time, but it certainly sounds like a good choice for my investment.

I guess in terms of your private cloud offering, to what extent do you mitigate these data security risks and what sort of support do clients get where something does potentially go wrong? You mentioned earlier, there’s a human on the other side of the phone or WhatsApp, that’s quite different to being in chatbot hell.

I think just talk us through the level of comfort that you can give to South African businesses who might be listening to this, thinking hmmm I need to maybe have more of a think around my cloud offering or where my stuff is.

Steve Porter: Yeah, I think so. If I separate our services out into – I don’t want to say endpoint security because it’s the wrong word, but human security and then cloud or infrastructure security. So from a business perspective, we all know this, but I’m not sure we all take it seriously enough, your greatest – so let me just talk about the sort of user security for a second.

Your greatest footprint or likelihood of a breach or problems – I’ve got another lovely example for you – is humans. What is the tool that they use the most? It’s email! So your very first step is for us to ensure – not us, any provider, this is not about selling us, it’s about broad awareness, right? You’ve got to take care of everything that that user uses. Email, OneDrive, 365, Google Workspace, whatever it may be. It’s got to be locked on and safe and secure. And then you’ve got also got to make sure that it’s backed up. So what happens in the event of a catastrophe?

And I’m guessing that a whole bunch of people are going to go, oh, great, so Steve’s just pushing the FUD principle. I’m not pushing the FUD principle. I’m telling you, it’s your responsibility. It’s really simple.

The Finance Ghost: What is the FUD principle, Steve, by the way? I’m not actually sure what that is.

Steve Porter: Fear, uncertainty and death.

The Finance Ghost: Ah, ok. Alright, there you go!

Steve Porter: So, yeah, fear. Am I peddling fear? And I think it’s actually the opposite. But how it’s received, well that’s up to the listener.

The Finance Ghost: What is the worst thing that can happen? I completely understand that. Yeah.

Steve Porter: Yes. And then the analogy I used, I think it was a week ago or two weeks ago, in South Africa we all know that someone’s going to burgle your house. We know this. So what do you do post-burglary? You beef up your security.

The analogy is not that dissimilar for businesses – (a) why would you ever want to be burgled in the first place? And (b), if something has happened, make sure you plug the holes. The way we look at it from a tech perspective is layers of an onion. Start at the centre, your most critical thing being humans, and work your way out and just make sure you’re safe.

And then the second part is the infrastructure side. So where you would put your ERP application as an example or whatever it may be – your business-critical services that have to run 24/7, we would always ensure it’s protected from a cybersecurity perspective. So your data – we know your data is as safe as it possibly can be. We all know that there is no 100% guarantee. But from a mitigation perspective, we’ll get you as close to 100% as the industry can get you.

Then the second element, and this is a critical element, is – it’s a boring topic, backups and DR, it’s helluva boring! But not from a business perspective. So let me just clarify the difference here.

A backup is –  I have a laptop, I stupidly leave it in my car, I thankfully have backups, the IT department buys me a new laptop tomorrow and I’m restored and up and running. So sure, I can use iCloud as an example or whatever it is, but that’s for my personal stuff, not work. So what’s the business backup strategy for my employees?

And then the second part is DR, right? And it’s a layer on top of backup. So I have an ERP application or let’s use, what was our, the Google one?

The Finance Ghost: UniSuper.

Steve Porter: UniSuper! So what happens when my data does go down? What is my DR strategy? And DR is – it’s in the name. What happens when I hit a disaster? In our world, you flick a switch, you switch over to a cloud-based replica of your ERP application. You’re probably down for three minutes, maximum eight, and you carry on working. When Google have restored your business data, you switch back to Google or whatever it may be. I don’t think we take disaster recovery seriously enough in this country, let alone backups, let alone cybersecurity. But I almost want to say at the infrastructure level, whatever is business critical, the tick box for DR has to be ticked.

So I just want to go back to the cybersecurity thing for a second and I’ll come back to DR again if you don’t mind.

So earlier this year, July, there was a company in the UK, KNP. I think they’d been in business for 158 years. One employee got exposed or hacked. It took their business down completely – as in they are no longer in business! And one of the stats we have from our DR vendor, there’s I think it’s about 55%, maybe even 60% of businesses that when they have a disaster that’s not recoverable, their business collapses. And I don’t think we understand the consequences of that sort of action.

I just want to go back to the infrastructure section again, if you don’t mind. I think what separates us again from your public cloud providers, is all of that is baked into our solution. Sure, from a costing perspective we have to take it out because those are the quotes the public providers are doing. But from a responsibility and integrity perspective, I’d rather you know the full costs and how it’s going to benefit your business rather than surprise you down the line with additional costs.

We do flat billing. There are no surprises in the month. The second place where you are going to get caught out from a public cloud perspective is, let’s assume you did think about an exit strategy and if you did, fantastic! For the rest of you that haven’t, I suggest on Monday morning, that is the first thing you do – is what is my exit strategy when I can’t handle a 10x bill anymore? And then you’re going to find out – what’s that wonderful Hotel California song? “You can check in, but you can never leave”. That’s public cloud. You will have put your data in and now you’re going to find out the cost of getting it out. I’m not crazy about the concept, I think it’s a terrible concept and I get it, every business has got to build moats. But we’ve designed our business right from the start, it’s an all-you-can-eat buffet. You want to take your data out when it’s time to leave, here it is. If we have failed you as a provider, if we have upset you and you want to leave, by all means leave. Then we have failed you, here’s your data.

I’m not crazy about that. In the technical world they call it ingress, which is inbound data and egress, which is outbound. And you get absolutely hammered on outbound costs. It’s not cool.

The Finance Ghost: No, that does sound like a FUD up of note, actually. We don’t want to be getting anyone involved in that. And I’ll say it again, when you’re a little old South African business, you get on the wrong side of this very fast let’s be honest.

A lot of people listening to this will probably have a financial background, just given the Ghost Mail audience. They’re probably “cloud curious” or they’ve got cloud and they are wondering about why the bill is so high. And I think it’s important – I definitely want to understand a broader point around how do they actually begin to access you – but we’ll get to that just now, because what I do want to also do is just – there must be reasons, there must be things the public cloud providers can do obviously that you might be a little bit short on?

Because what it sounds like to me is Metrofile Cloud is a very good example of hitting the most important things that most of the businesses need. So, is the data safe? Is it accessible? Is it backed up? Just the basics. I mean, that KNP example you gave is shocking. I went and Googled it now –  that is horrific! When cybersecurity goes wrong, it’s insane how that can literally just sink an entire business. It is very scary stuff. No one likes to think about this stuff or talk about it. It’s like doing your will. You don’t want to think about what happens, but you kind of need one. This is very much the will of IT.

But where, for example, are the public clouds going to just be more suitable? So the one example that maybe jumps to mind is I read Oracle’s earnings transcript last week, which was an absolute love letter to Cloud and Larry Ellison talking about how we’re going to get to this world where a company exec can kind of sit back on the beach and ask a question to an LLM like: “who should we sell to next?” And this LLM will search every imaginable document in the entire organisation and everything in the whole world before coming back with this mystical answer of: “That person, that’s who you should phone.”

Now, obviously I’m being slightly facetious because you can tell that I’m quite skeptical of us getting to this world, because at the moment I don’t even exist in a world where I can actually get a transcript of this podcast done by AI that doesn’t require me to spend an hour and a half fixing it. So forgive me for wondering when we might get to that world.

But big dreamers do build the world and often they – it’s the old story, aim for the stars, miss, and you’ll hit the moon. Very nice. Looks good on a motivational poster. And fair enough, there’s some very exciting stuff getting built out there.

Is that somewhere where for the large enterprise level clients who now desperately need to tell an LLM story – because otherwise how do they get their bonus this year – does that sound like something that maybe isn’t super suitable for your environment? Where do you run out of road in terms of competing against the big public cloud providers?

Steve Porter: So let me start with the LLM topic. That is something certainly we are absolutely focusing on now. There is no – look, there are multiple providers starting to do it in South Africa, but there’s no one that’s doing it yet. And I think it’s a key service that is missing in this country.

And again, why should I pay US dollar-based rates? I don’t want to say it should be free and cheap, but it should be as cheap as possible, or as cost effective as possible like all other services. Absolutely, we are heading down that path and I think any business that hasn’t figured out how to use – and I won’t call it AI because it’s not AI – automation, next level automation in their business, should be thinking about it. So let’s wrap that one.

From a full-service suite public provider perspective, can we compete? Absolutely not. And I have absolutely zero desire to. There is not a service – let’s just use Amazon as an example – that they do not provide. Whether it’s Elasticsearch as an example, or queuing, or you name it, they’ve got it. They have got everything. I mean, as an example, one of the things we’re looking at is how do you extract tabular data from PDF documents? There are only three ways that are production ready – it’s Google, Amazon and Azure. So use them! As a breadth of suite, no one can compete.

I mean, the investment for a start, mindboggling. We could discuss how they snaffled open-source tools, products, rebranded them, took them in house and now they’re making money out of it – questionable. But from a breadth perspective, can’t compete. No desire to compete. Again, I come back to, and the reason why we wouldn’t want to compete, again, is that 99.9% of businesses in this country don’t need that breadth of tooling.

So if we go back to our offering versus a public cloud offering and I come back to, what it is we take away from you, what we give to you – so, yes, sure, we’ve only got storage, we only got compute and we’ve got a whole bunch of other services around that. But let’s just say we’ve got three primary services. Will that tick off 99% of business’ needs? Yeah, probably. Absolutely!

So what do we give you? We give you time. We give you time to think and we give you time to be strategic, not worry about OS updates and all the boring stuff. That is not what the public providers give you. They’re going to give you an absolute smorgasbord of products and then they’re going to take away time. Then you’re going to have to figure out, how in heaven’s name you use this? How do I use it in production? What happens when it goes wrong? You are asking for a world of pain unless you are a massive business, you have deep pockets and you’ve got budgets for massive teams.

It’s a totally different model, but again – and you may think I hate public providers by the way I speak – I don’t. I’m an absolute fan of DigitalOcean. I think it is probably one of the most beautiful models out there. They’ve done what we’re talking about at a much higher level, UK, Europe, US, but they’ve done it so cleverly in that it’s, let’s say, 12 services and it’s just at the right level for developers. It’s not everything in the kitchen sink. So I suppose you as a business need to figure out which is the correct path. But even if I look at the DigitalOcean model versus our model, DigitalOcean is designed for developers, not business people. You’re still not getting the time back. So again, I suppose it comes back to what you as a business value? Do you want your IT guys to be spending your time fixing servers or do you want your IT guys to actually be thinking about how we build this business?

That’s my humble take on where public and private really sits.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it makes sense. It’s like what Capitec has done in banking, it’s like what Chinese cars have done around the world actually, is that at the end of the day, for 99.9% of applications, it’s enough – and it’s therefore very cost effective because a lot of other competitors are trying to layer on bells and whistles and then charge everyone for it, even the people who didn’t need it, to try – it’s almost like a subsidy! That’s a problem.

And the other thing – you’ve touched on it there – is the team, because it’s all good and well to say, well, I can go this route of doing the very fancy international stuff, especially if you don’t need it. You’re locking yourself into not just the cost of the hyperscaler itself, but also, I would imagine, a huge amount of advisory costs, teams, developers, it all sounds very complicated. And again, I realise this is definitely not my area of expertise, so it probably sounds infinitely more complicated to me than perhaps it is, but it sounds pretty complicated.

And I guess that was one of the things I wanted to make sure we cover off as we start to bring this to a close, is for a CFO who’s sitting and listening to this and maybe isn’t in a large organisation where there’s a dedicated CTO, for example, how do they access Metrofile Cloud? Do you have that sort of advisory piece in house where you help clients understand their needs, etc. Or is it almost like the investment product provider: “speak to your financial advisor” and the advisor will contact us. Is it that kind of environment? Or can you also do the advice piece and actually help businesses figure out what they should be doing?

Steve Porter: Our business is built on a partner network. We are very happy to advise, but we would always get the partner involved from the outset and it’s their responsibility as one of our partners to implement.

But absolutely from an implementation, from a strategic perspective, from a “how would I go about eating this elephant?” we are absolutely there to help. From an implementation perspective, we have an amazing, amazing group of partners and we work really closely and I think, well, with our partners. We’ve got some positive reviews – I don’t want to sound like a Verimark salesman.

But I think you’re right. I think it starts with auditing where you are, just understanding, not applying FUD principles and figuring out how we can get you to a place that is safe, secure, your auditors are happy, your CFO is happy, and you can sleep soundly at night.

The Finance Ghost: So, Steve, if I can really summarise everything that I’ve heard from you, it almost sounds a little bit like when I set out to build The Finance Ghost and I took a look at this ecosystem of all these social media platforms, and then I looked at the magic of email and I thought to myself, well – time has proven me slightly wrong in that it turns out that Gmail, for example, has more control over deliverability than I would ever have imagined possible, but be that as it may – the point is that with email, there isn’t a specific algorithm that decides whether you live or die. Whereas on any of these social media platforms, if you upset the algo or something changes or whatever, you can have spent years upon years upon years building something that can literally get turned off essentially overnight because you are nothing more than a tenant in the big house that tech built. That is the reality.

So I went the email route because I thought there’s no ways I’m doing that, I’m not spending my life building something on one platform, that makes no sense, people’s preferences change. And I’m so glad I did because it gives me so much control over what I’ve built and how I continue to grow it and where I focus and which social media platform I use, etc.

I don’t think it’s super different when companies are looking at cloud. That’s what I’m hearing, is if you go and lock yourself into one of the public cloud providers and you build this incredible layer of AI models and you retrench all your staff and you believe that every single day you’re just going to flick a button and you’ll get a little email in the morning telling you exactly what you should sell to who – well, maybe I just don’t want to live in a world that looks like that, I’m not sure – but I’m not sure we’re going to get to a world that looks like that. There’s just too much that goes wrong with tech, etc.

How do you then value a business? Because actually all the value then sits in the technology house. What is your business actually worth? It’s just a model, just a button, it’s just something that gets flicked. So I think where you are telling a really helpful story actually, and that I think is something people need to hear, just be careful about the extent to which you hand over the keys to your entire business to a large technology house where you really are just a number. That is something to keep in mind.

It’s not to say that public cloud doesn’t work for everyone or doesn’t work for you or doesn’t work for whoever. Just be cautious and at least take the time and effort to actually consider the risks and you’ve mentioned a few of them which are really valuable – lock-ins, exit strategy, data integrity, etc. etc. All of that is incredibly valid.

And Metrofile Cloud is an interesting private cloud alternative where, if you’re looking for a South African solution with pricing that’s not going to give you a huge fright at the end of the month – it really is prepaid electricity plays Eskom – and on top of that can just do the basics and probably enough for most businesses, then that is where Metrofile Cloud plays.

Is that a pretty good summary of where you guys are at?

Steve Porter: I think it’s spot on. Absolutely spot on.

The Finance Ghost: So I guess the last point then is for those who have listened to this and gone “hmmm,” which is that classic “hmmm” of, “hmmm, I need to think about this a bit more,” where shall they direct that in a way that lets them speak to the right person? Is it contacting you directly? Is it finding one of your partners?

Steve Porter: Contact me. Contact us metrofilecloud.com all our numbers on there. I’m very happy to dish out my number. That is the point. Start a discussion and it’s not even around – sure, we’re all in business, we want to make money, but it’s about awareness. And if I come back to why I wake up in the morning, it’s about ensuring that businesses can carry on doing business. That’s all this is about. Absolutely. Website, WhatsApp, phone calls. We are available.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I think that’s maybe one final point from my side and something I’ve personally enjoyed just getting to know the Metrofile Cloud team – and all of you are Ghost Mail readers, that’s how this all came about – but it’s just very cool to meet a team that is genuinely so candid and also just so entrepreneurial. It’s quite clearly a business by entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs. And I think as an entrepreneur myself, you can tell – you can immediately tell when you are dealing with a business that has that kind of DNA versus that sort of big corporate call centre kind of vibe: don’t talk to me, talk to the machine.

So, well done to you, Steve, and to the team. To listeners that have made it this far in the podcast or read the transcript, I hope you’ve taken something from this. I hope you’ve taken something actionable. Worst you can do is have a conversation and just see if you are using the right services at the right price and that it’s doing everything you need. I mean, it certainly doesn’t hurt.

And much as FUD is frustrating at times and it’s ugly to think about, you’ve given a couple of quite scary case studies there about where things can go wrong and that’s what risk is at the end of the day. That’s why we have insurance. We don’t want these things to happen to us, but sometimes they do, and that’s why people take out insurance. That’s why they should think about their data. You’ve given me a lot to think about as well, so thank you, Steve. I really wish you guys all the best heading into the back-end of the year and hopefully we get to do another one of these again at some point and keep us appraised of what’s happening in cloud.

Steve Porter: Fantastic. Can’t wait. Yeah. Enjoyed every second. Likewise, meeting you has been 10 out of 10.

The Finance Ghost: Thanks, Steve. Ciao.

Steve Porter: Take care.

The billion-dollar cameos: how do brands get themselves on the big screen?

There’s a secret economy that turns movie props into million-dollar billboards.

Every movie has its stars – the leading man or lady, the love interest, the plucky sidekick. But look closely and you’ll notice another recurring cast member quietly stealing scenes: the brands.

Cars, laptops, beers, trainers, blenders – all playing their supporting roles in the background of our favourite stories. Sometimes they strut across the screen in slow motion, like a Lexus cruising down the coast at sunset. Other times, they lurk unnoticed, like a casual takeaway coffee cup on a counter, a phone glowing in a hero’s hand, a beer that just happens to be facing the camera.

These moments might look incidental, but they’re anything but. Behind every branded bottle cap and badge is a negotiation, an invoice, or at the very least, a very enthusiastic email chain between a prop master and a marketing executive.

Hollywood’s most expensive extras

Let’s start with the blockbuster stuff – the product placements that cost more than the average indie film.

Harley-Davidson once spent around $10 million to get its new electric motorcycle a spot in Avengers: Age of Ultron, presumably because nothing says “eco-friendly” like a superhero on a high-voltage bike. Heineken forked over $45 million for a brief but memorable moment in Skyfall, where James Bond swaps his signature martini for a cold beer. The deal went beyond screen time to include permission for Heineken to make ads starring Daniel Craig himself.

Then there’s the long-running arms race between luxury car brands to secure the 007 garage. BMW held the crown throughout the 1990s, spending around $110 million across three films before Aston Martin outbid them with a $140 million deal for Die Another Day. And in 2013, Man of Steel practically turned Superman’s cape into a billboard. More than 100 brands including Nokia, Gillette, and Carl’s Jr. paid a collective $160 million to be part of the reboot.

Big money, big egos, big exposure. And yet, most product placements in film don’t involve any money at all.

The box office barter system

We already know that making movies is expensive. Really expensive. A typical studio production costs around $65 million, and that’s before marketing or distribution. Props, costumes, and set dressing eat up huge chunks of that budget – and that’s where brands come in.

Property masters (the unsung heroes who make sure every gun, gadget, and gadget holder looks authentic on screen) are always hunting for ways to stretch their budgets. And that’s the basis for something called “corporate generosity”.

In many cases, studios simply borrow real products from real companies in exchange for a bit of screen time. No cheques, no contracts, just mutual benefit. The film gets realism and savings, and the brand gets a cameo in front of millions.

Some of cinema’s most famous product placements were (surprisingly) unpaid:

  • Reese’s Pieces only ended up in E.T. because M&M’s turned Spielberg down (apparently out of fear that the titular alien would scare their target audience – kids). M&M’s blunder became Reese’s win, as sales of Reese’s candy shot up 65% during the film’s opening week.
  • Ray-Ban didn’t pay for its iconic appearances in Risky Business and Top Gun – yet both films sent its Wayfarer sales soaring from 18,000 to 360,000 pairs.
  • Google didn’t just get free inclusion in The Internship (a movie about working at Google), it also got editorial control to shape how its offices and culture were portrayed. All that without paying a cent!
  • And while action franchises like Fast & Furious have made careers out of obliterating cars, many of those vehicles were provided (or at least heavily discounted) by the manufacturers themselves. Across its first seven films, the series destroyed around 1,487 cars, which is a theoretical $30 million in automotive carnage.

The agents behind the appliances

Of course, not every blender gets to flirt with fame. Hollywood is flooded with products vying for a spot in the background, and most don’t make the cut. To improve their odds, many brands hire product placement agencies, which are the equivalent of professional Hollywood matchmakers who introduce brands to productions and broker deals.

A typical arrangement goes something like this: a company pays an annual fee (anywhere from $40,000 to $300,000, depending on ambition). In return, the agency pitches the brand to prop masters, set decorators, and stylists, all while combing through scripts to spot potential fits. Need a tech brand for your sci-fi thriller? They’ve got options. A luxury car for your billionaire villain? Done. A specific brand of kitchen mixer for your holiday romance movie set in a bakery in 1960s suburbia? They’ll find one.

It’s all about context and character. The right product has to feel natural, not forced. Nobody wants their high-end watch on the wrist of a serial killer unless it’s a horror franchise with a sequel clause. Apple famously has a rule that their phones can never be used by villains on screen – so if you’re watching a murder mystery and trying to figure out whodunnit, you can cross the iPhone users off your list.

Some companies skip the middlemen altogether. Dell, for instance, started managing its own placements two decades ago by cold-calling Hollywood studios and building relationships directly. The strategy worked: in 2020 alone, Dell appeared in 19 films, including Bad Boys for Life, where it racked up over five minutes of screen time and roughly $8.5 million worth of ad value.

But are product placements worth all this effort?

In short: absolutely.

When Toy Story came out, Etch A Sketch sales jumped by as much as 4,500%. And when the Chevy Camaro starred as Bumblebee in Transformers in 2007, it single-handedly revived a struggling car model that had been gathering dust in showrooms.

Academic studies back this up – product placement can boost brand awareness by around 20%, increase positive associations, and drive higher purchase intent. People remember what they see on screen, even if they don’t consciously register it. That’s the real magic of product placement. It doesn’t feel like advertising (unless it’s really overt). It’s ambient marketing. The brand becomes part of the story’s texture, absorbed through osmosis rather than shouted through a megaphone.

Of course, subtlety is everything. Done well, product placement makes a film feel authentic. Done badly, it feels like an ad break with better lighting. When James Bond cracks open a beer mid-action sequence, it’s clever branding. When a character dramatically praises their laptop’s processing speed, it’s cringe. Viewers are surprisingly sensitive to that balance – they’ll forgive a logo, but not a sales pitch.

The future of on-screen advertising

As traditional advertising gets easier to skip — blocked, muted, scrolled past — brands are getting smarter about where they hide. Product placement offers something rare: undivided attention. You can’t fast-forward through a logo if it’s stitched into the plot.

In the end, product placement is less about selling objects and more about selling associations. Brands borrow the halo of Hollywood – the glamour, excitement, and emotional resonance – and in return, films borrow a bit of real-world texture.

It’s a fine dance between art and commerce, and when it works, both partners look good.

Ghostly editor’s note: my Ray-Bans have nothing to do with Top Gun, ok? Nothing. Absolutely nothing at all. I deny it.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Cashbuild | DRDGOLD | Gemfields | Labat Africa | Premier – RFG | PSG Financial Services | Sanlam | Vukile Property Fund)

Things are picking up at Cashbuild (JSE: CSB)

Bit by bit, sales growth is increasing

Life is tough at Cashbuild. The SARB loves nothing more than high interest rates, so we live in a country where consumers prefer sports betting to investing in physical assets like property (at every income level). They just have to keep grinding away at Cashbuild, with the great hope being that SARB will finally deliver some meaningful interest rate relief.

In the quarter ended September 2025, Cashbuild’s group revenue increased by 6%. In Cashbuild South Africa, existing stores were up 5% and new stores contributed 2%, so the growth in the local business was 7%.

This may not sound like much, but it’s a bit better than what the company has been able to manage over the past year or so. Importantly, volumes are the biggest driver of growth here, as selling price inflation was just 1.4%.

Sadly, P&L Hardware continues to fall, with existing stores suffering a turnover decline of 11%. This segment is only 6% of group sales, but that’s enough for the poor performance in this segment to continue to be annoying.

Onwards and upwards – ever so slowly!


A slight quarter-on-quarter uptick at DRDGOLD (JSE: DRD)

Cost pressures are evident, but are mainly due to timing

DRDGOLD released an operating update for the quarter ended September 2025. All the comparisons are made to the quarter ended June 2025, so this is a sequential quarter-on-quarter view rather than the typical year-on-year approach that would use the September 2024 period as a base.

In other words, don’t be shocked by relatively small movements, as these would annualise into bigger moves.

Gold production was up 2% and gold sales were up 1%. They achieved a better yield on the ore that was milled (i.e. more gold per tonne milled), which is why cash operating costs were up 8% per tonne milled and only 3% per kg of gold.

Adjusted EBITDA was only up by 1% though, with cost pressures leading to this modest growth rate. Annual labour increases were felt in this quarter and they also had to deal with winter electricity tariffs applicable in July and August (vs. only June in the previous quarter). When a business has seasonal factors, using quarter-on-quarter numbers can lead to distortions like these.

Cash and cash equivalents fell by R257.1 million to R1.05 billion. This is because of the dividend and the capex during the quarter. Importantly, the company remains debt free.

Thanks to the leveraged exposure to the gold price (in the form of plenty of operating leverage in this model), DRDGOLD is up a whopping 233% year-to-date!


Gemfields has suffered a very concerning security incident in Mozambique (JSE: GML)

Lives were lost at the mine gate

The risk factors at Gemfields seem to be through the roof right now. The company recently noted the illegal mining issues at the Montepuez Ruby Mining (MRM) facility and how this has delayed the next auction. Things are clearly getting much worse, with 40 illegal miners having marched on the mine gate and attacked Mozambican police officers. Two officers (including a commander) lost their lives.

Sure, no employees or contractors were hurt, but this is clearly an escalation in violence and risk. The company has been given information that this attack may be linked to an investigation by immigration authorities of illegal immigrants in a local village, which also led to loss of life.

Getting rubies out the ground at a profit is hard enough. Doing it under armed guard (which seems to be buckling under the pressure) makes it even worse. I worry about how this security incident is being downplayed in the market, with the share price closing just 1.5% lower in response to this news.


A truly wild day for the Labat Africa share price (JSE: LAB)

At one point in morning trade, it was up 230%!

Labat Africa is a small cap that really captured the imagination of the market on Thursday. There are normally fewer than half a million shares changing hands each day. Thanks to the release of a trading statement, over 18 million shares traded!

After a chaotic trading day, the share price eventually settled 50% higher. This was driven by the trading statement for the year ended May 2025 (yes, very late) that noted a jump in HEPS of a casual 436%. If you’re going to be late, you may as well make an entrance!

In this swing from profits to losses, the HEPS was 13.28 cents for the period. The share price was trading at 6 cents at the start of the day and ended on 9 cents, so it’s trading on a P/E of less than 1x!

The net asset value (NAV) per share is expected to be 21.87 cents, so the share price is also a significant discount to NAV. There’s a whole lot going on at Labat, so treat it as a speculative punt and do your research very carefully here if you are tempted.


Premier proposes a share-for-share acquisition of RFG (JSE: PMR | JSE: RFG)

As usual in these deals, the market sold Premier and bought RFG

It feels like we’ve seen some exciting deals on the local market this year, and now we have another example. Premier Group – the very successful FMCG business that was unleashed by Brait (JSE: BAT) – is looking to acquire sector peer RFG Holdings in a share-for-share deal that would lead to current RFG shareholders having a 22.5% stake in the combined group.

This exchange ratio is calculated based on a price of R22 per RFG share (vs. the prior day’s closing price around R16) and R154 per Premier share (in line with the prior day’s closing price).

What is the rationale for the deal?

Well, if we start with an understanding of Premier, we are looking at a company that has 28% market share in the formal bread market, 38% of the wheat market, 15% of the sugar confectionery market and 22% of the feminine care market in South Africa. It exports 14 brands in its portfolio to 41 countries worldwide. Recent performance has been very strong, with the benefit of operating leverage coming through in the baking business. It’s therefore likely that RFG shareholders would be quite happy to be involved in the merged group, as Premier is a successful story.

Over at RFG, the focus is mainly on key fresh and long-life categories. Recent performance has been difficult, with a number of market factors that can influence the pricing of key products both locally and abroad. There is minimal product overlap with Premier and the operations are (and would remain) distinct. On the one hand, that’s good news for the likelihood of a successful Competition Commission process and the culture of RFG being retained, with Premier seeing this deal as a way to expand and diversify the group. But on the other, this calls into question why it actually makes sense for the groups to belong together and why Premier should be paying a 37.5% premium to the 30-day VWAP of RFG.

It’s worth noting that a typical control premium is around 20% – 25%, so part of the premium is justified purely by Premier taking control of RFG. I think there’s also an element of opportunistic dealmaking at play here, as the RFG Holdings share price was depressed and Premier has been riding high:

The deal is being structured as a scheme of arrangement in which 1 new Premier share would be issued for every 7 RFG shares. Fractional entitlements would be settled in cash. This means that arbitrage traders will keep an eye on the share prices and see if there are any profits to be made based on the exchange ratio, although there’s obviously loads of deal implementation risk at this stage as shareholders still need to vote on the transaction and regulators will need to approve it. There are also a number of material adverse change provisions, which would give the parties a way out if something goes badly wrong at either company.

There are dividends to consider, with RFG entitled to pay a dividend for the 12 months to September 2025 and Premier entitled to pay a dividend for the six months to September 2025.

A break fee of 1% of the deal value would be payable by RFG to Premier in certain circumstances, but this excludes a situation in which RFG’s board recommends a superior proposal. This deal is wide open to a bidding war, so one wonders if we might see a competing proposal emerge.

In that context, it’s important to note that holders of 49.5% of RFG shares have given irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer, including Capitalworks with its 44.5% holding. There are non-binding letters of support from holders of a further 28.3% of shares. Those holders are mainly large institutions and they are clearly keeping their options open in case a better deal arrives.

The scheme circular is expected to be distributed on or about 11 November 2025.


PSG Financial Services’ advice-led model continues to do so well (JSE: KST)

Distribution power is king

When it comes to financial products (and especially in the investment space), it’s really hard to differentiate based on investment performance. As we know, only a handful of active managers reliably beat the market index over the long term. This means that distribution is where the real moat lies, with advisors out there structuring portfolios on behalf of clients and helping to attract flows.

PSG Financial Services is evidence of this, with the results for the six months to August 2025 reflecting a 19% increase in total assets under management. There’s an 18% increase at PSG Wealth (the advice business) and a 21% increase at PSG Asset Management. Thanks to a really good year in the markets, performance fees were 7.3% of headline earnings (up from 6% in the prior year).

PSG Insure also contributed positively, with gross written premium up 6%.

With underlying growth drivers of that nature, it’s little surprise that recurring HEPS increased by 21%. But here’s the interesting thing: despite having a modest growth rate, PSG Insure posted the best recurring headline earnings growth of 26%! The insurance sector really has had an amazing year.

Part of the jump in earnings is the approach taken by the company to managing its margins and investing in efficient growth. Technology and infrastructure spend was up 15%, while fixed remuneration was up just 5%. It’s a good time to be a data centre and not such a good time to be a young professional in the market, although full credit must go to PSG for their graduate programme and their initiatives like Think Big South Africa. The company does the right thing for shareholders and also does the right thing for the country.

Return on equity was a juicy 28.6%, up from 26.2% in the prior period. Just to cap off the good news for investors, the dividend per share was up 18%.

This is an impressive performance that explains why the share price is up 24% year-to-date. Interestingly, the share price dipped 2.6% on the day of results. Some profit-taking after a strong run isn’t uncommon.


Sanlam’s capital markets day details the next era of growth (JSE: SLM)

There’s always something interesting to learn from these events

Sanlam hosted a capital markets day and made all the presentations available here. This gives you an opportunity to really dig in if you’re interested in how the company will drive growth in years to come.

Remember, Sanlam is not shy to do deals. The company tends to make big moves both locally and internationally, with a focus on high growth emerging markets like India and the rest of Africa.

This comes through in the slide deck, like in this slide which shows the ex-South Africa growth opportunity across GDP and financial product penetration:

The group is looking to grow operating profit by more than 600 basis points above South African inflation. That’s significant real growth! In terms of returns to shareholders, they aim to grow the dividend at a rate 400 basis points about South African inflation. They also aim to keep return on equity above 20%.

How will they do it? Aside from organic growth, there are substantial growth drivers in the business that have been unlocked through recent transactions. For example, the growth runway in Africa for SanlamAllianz is exciting. In India, the ShriramOne app is is a “one-stop financial hub” that looks like an interesting strategy. Sanlam is also looking to ramp up its specialist insurance capability via the Lloyd’s transaction. There’s work to be done in some cases to get these deals across the line and to integrate them into the operations, but this is nothing new to Sanlam.

There’s plenty to dig your teeth into in the slides. As a final comment, this chart shows the recovery from the COVID lows and the base for further growth:


Unsurprisingly, the market threw money at Vukile Property Fund (JSE: VKE)

The property sector is hot and Vukile is one of the brightest flames

On Wednesday, Vukile announced a plan to raise around R2 billion through an accelerated bookbuild process. As usual, it didn’t take them long. Also as usual, institutional investors jumped at the opportunity to get their hands on more shares in Vukile at a discount.

In the end, Vukile upsized the raise and placed shares worth R2.65 billion, or 10% of the company’s market cap. In percentage terms, that’s a capital raise that was 32.5% larger than planned!

The property sector has come so far since the pandemic. I’m not ready to reduce exposure just yet, as we are still in a situation where only the best funds are raising money. When the more marginal players start to achieve oversubscribed bookbuilds, it’s time to take my money elsewhere.

In terms of pricing, the shares will be issued at R21.30 per share, which is a 4.3% discount to the 10-day VWAP. This of course is the challenge for retail investors in this sector: our phones don’t ring with the opportunity to buy the shares at a 4.3% discount. Instead, we just get diluted over time, with the hope being that the fund puts the capital to good use and keeps generating strong returns.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Ex-CEO and outgoing director Jan Potgieter has sold more shares in Italtile (JSE: ITE), this time to the value of over R8 million.
  • I was slightly off on the estimated pricing at which the underwriters have bought the ASP Isotopes (JSE: ASP) shares as part of that capital raise, as it seems that I misunderstood the option granted to the underwriters. A subsequent announcement by the company has confirmed that the price is $11.65 per share (for both the initial issue to the underwriters and the option). The underwriters will obviously try to offload them at a profit.
  • Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) has requested a trading halt in Australia based on a pending announcement of a capital raise. This is how the listed environment in Australia works. We don’t have this rule in South Africa, so we end up in the odd situation where the company’s shares are suspended from trading in Australia but not in South Africa. The halt will be in place until the company makes the announcement about the capital raise or until the commencement of trading on Monday 20th October, whichever happens first.
  • Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) announced that Magen Naidoo, currently the CFO, will be appointed as the Deputy CEO as well. The drama around the company continues, with the company noting that this appointment is because of the death threats that have been received by CEO Mike Miller.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) is still holding its breath for the funding that is expected to be received from Gathoni Muchai Investments (GMI) for the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining. There’s a $1.35 million cash consideration due to the sellers. The amount has been delayed yet again, with promises now made that the money will clear next week.
  • Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) announced that the company has received an initial advance of funding under the convertible loan note issued to an institutional investor. This is to help the company with the process of acquiring Carbon Resilience Pte Limited, a utility-scale industrial decarbonisation and renewable energy company focused on Australia. The balance of the funds under the convertible loan note is expected to be received by 29th October. This capital is purely to fund the process of the deal, not the deal itself.
  • Universal Partners (JSE: UPL) will issue shares worth roughly R1.25 million to Argo Investment Managers in part settlement of the carry fee that is payable after the disposal of the company’s investment in YASA Limited. This represents less than 0.1% of shares in issue.
  • Here’s something for those keeping an eye on Mondi (JSE: MNP): the company has announced the launch of a €550 million Eurobond with a 5-year term and a coupon of 3.375%. They will use this to refinance existing debt, including the €600 million notes due April 2026 that they are currently busy with a tender offer for.

Note: Ghost Bites is my journal of each day’s notable news on SENS. It reflects my own opinions and analysis and should only be one part of your research process. Nothing you read here is financial advice. E&OE. Disclaimer.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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Consumer-packaged goods company Premier Group has launched a takeover bid of leading producer of convenience meal solutions RFG in a share swap transaction valued at c.R5,78 billion. Premier will issue shares in the ratio of 1 Premier share for every 7 RFG shares and a cash amount in respect of fractional entitlements to Premier shares. The share swap ratio is based on a reference price of R22.00 per RFG share and R154.00 per Premier share and will see RFG shareholders holding an aggregate 22.5% stake in the combined group. Based on the share swap ratio, the scheme consideration represents a premium per RFG share of 37.5% based on the 30-day VWAP. Shareholders collectively holding 77.8% of RFG’s shares in issue have undertaken to vote in favour of the transaction. Upon completion of the transaction, RFG will delist from the JSE. The enlarged group will have a combined annual revenue of c.R27,9 billion and profit after tax of c.R1,7 billion.

Growthpoint Properties has entered into a partnership with RSA Aero, the owners and operators of Cape Winelands Airport, making an initial investment with the right to co-invest and develop the new Cape Winelands Airport precinct – set to be developed on the site of the airfield previously known as Fisantekraal, north of Durbanville. The airport is expected to sustain c.35,000 direct and indirect jobs with an initial investment of R8 billion which will deliver the terminal buildings, runway and a 450-hectare developable estate. Construction of airport could begin in early 2026, pending Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approvals, with the projected opening in 2028.

Afhco Holdings, a subsidiary of SA Corporate Real Estate (SAC), has added to the residential portfolio with the acquisition of Parks Lifestyle Apartments at Riversands in Fourways. The development with a transaction valued of R1,67 billion will, once completed, comprise 2,000 residential units and will increase SAC’s exposure to suburban estates to 67.2% (currently 58.7%) of its residential portfolio. The purchase consideration will be funded through a combination of existing and new debt facilities, disposal proceeds and/or equity to be raised. The deal, a category 2 acquisition does not require shareholder approval.

Exemplar REITail has acquired two retail properties – a 50% stake in Boitumelo Junction in Welkom and Stimela Crossing in Barberton. The consideration payable for the Boitumelo Junction stake is R124,28 million to be paid to Masingita Property Investment Holdings. The second property owned by Zoviblox, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Masingita, will be sold for a purchase consideration of R235,47 million. The acquisitions constitute category 2 transactions for Exemplar and as such do not require shareholder approval.

ASP Isotopes has acquired an independent radiopharmacy located in Florida, US. The transaction is in line with the company’s strategy to expand PET Labs Pharmaceuticals’ nuclear medicine business, building a vertically integrated supply chain, manufacturing and distribution system for the delivery of radiopharmaceutical products. The acquisition represents PET Labs’ first expansion outside of South Africa.

The Canal+ offer to MultiChoice shareholders closed on 10 October with shareholders holding c.92.54% of the issued share capital accepting the offer. These acceptances together with the shares held by Canal+ prior to the offer will result in Canal+ holding a c.94.39% stake. The remaining shares will be compulsorily acquired in terms of the ‘squeeze out’ mechanism as the offer has been accepted by more than 90% of MultiChoice shareholders.

In early September Shuka Minerals informed shareholders that the finalising of the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining (LEM) which owns the Kabwe Zinc Mine, first reported in December 2024, had been hindered due to the delay in the remittance of funds in the form of a loan from Gathoni Muchai Investments (GMI). The loan is necessary to satisfy the US$1,35 million balance of cash consideration due to the LEM vendors. GMI has now confirmed that payment is in process.

Kuunda, a B2B fintech solutions provider, has closed a Pre-Series A funding round of US$7,5 million. The funding round was supported by Portugal Gateway Fund, Seedstars Africa Ventures, 4Di Capital, Accion ventures, Nedbank and E4EAfrica. The funding will be used to scale inclusive digital lending by building the infrastructure as Kuunda expands into new markets in Africa and the MENA region.

Abland Property Developers and The Cavaleros Group have entered into a joint venture agreement on key land holdings. The partnership aims to accelerate the creation of sustainable, world-class developments and in doing so stimulate economic growth and empower communities.

Thebe Solar Energy has disposed of a portfolio of operational solar and battery energy storage assets to Westbrooke Renewable Energy Alternatives, a partnership between Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management and French renewable energy company CVE’s local subsidiary. The portfolio, located at 91 Shell-owned services stations across South Africa, generates c.7.8 GWh of renewable power annually. Financial details were undisclosed.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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This week Vukile Property Fund successfully undertook an equity capital raise of R2,65 billion, up from the initial R2 billion announced, representing 10% of the company’s market capitalisation. Vukile will issue c.124,5 million shares which were placed at a price of R21.30 per share representing a 4.8% and 4.3% discount to the pre-launch Vukile closing price and 10-day VWAP respectively on 15 October 2025. The proceeds of the bookbuild will enable Vukile to capitalise on accretive opportunities in the deal space.

Orion Minerals has issued 290,239,214 shares at an issue price of 1.5 cents to raise A$4,35 million. This finalises the issue of shares under the first stage of the placement. The second stage of the placement which involves the issue to its chairman, is subject to shareholder approval on 27 November 2025.

ASP Isotopes which took a secondary inward listing on the JSE in August 2025, following the offer to Renergen shareholders, is to raise c.$210,3 million in an underwritten public offering. The company has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase c.$31,5 million of additional shares. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.

Anglo American has purchased 71,444 shares on behalf of its shareholders in terms of its Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). 46,632 shares were acquired at an average price of £27.69 per share for electing shareholders on the UK register and 24,812 shares on behalf of shareholders on the South African register at an average price of R649.59 per share. Shareholders on the Botswanan register did not participate.

In terms of its Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) Mondi has, on behalf of shareholders electing this option, purchased 181,725 shares in the market at an average price of £10.15 per share and 186,886 shares in the local market at an average price of R237.78 per share.

Universal Partners has issued 69,658 shares by way of consideration issue for the part settlement of the carry fee owed to Argo Investments Managers in relation to the disposal of the Company’s investment in YASA.

Southern Palladium has requested a trading halt on ASX pending an announcement due on 20 October regarding a capital raising to be undertaken by way of a share placement and share purchase plan. The JSE has not declared a corresponding trading halt.

Trustco has renewed its cautionary notice advising that the company is to appoint an independent expert to prepare a fairness opinion for delisting purposes.

Shareholders have voted in favour of the change in name of the company from PBT Group Limited to PBT Holdings Limited. The special resolution for the name change will be lodged with the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission.

The JSE has informed Telemasters’ shareholders that the company had failed to submit its annual financial statements timeously and that its shares are under threat of suspension. If the company fails to submit these by 1 November 2025, its listing may be suspended.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Combined Motor Holdings is to undertake a repurchase of shares programme. The decision stems from surplus funds and low interest rates with directors of the view that returning the surplus to shareholders by way of a pro rata share repurchase offers the most optimal use of the funds. The repurchase programme will be restricted to a maximum number of 11,220,000 shares, representing 15% of the company’s total present issued ordinary shares.

South32 continued with its US$200 million repurchase programme announced in August 2024. The shares will be repurchased over the period 12 September 2025 to 11 September 2026. This week 1,739,172 shares were repurchased for an aggregate cost of A$5,43 million.

The purpose of Bytes Technology’s share repurchase programme, of up to a maximum aggregate consideration of £25 million, is to reduce Bytes’ share capital. This week 506,500 shares were repurchased at an average price per share of £3.93 for an aggregate £1,99 million.

Glencore’s current share buy-back programme plans to acquire shares of an aggregate value of up to US$1 billion. The shares will be repurchased on the LSE, BATS, Chi-X and Aquis exchanges and is expected to be completed in February 2026. This week 10,800,000 shares were repurchased at an average price of £3.57 per share for an aggregate £38,51 million.

In May 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £200 million, taking the total amount to be repurchased by 31 December 2025 to £1,1 billion. The extended programme is being funded using the net proceeds of the block trade of shares in ITC to institutional investors. This week the company repurchased a further 733,248 shares at an average price of £38.12 per share for an aggregate £27,95 million.

During the period 6 to 10 October 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 1,264,403 Prosus shares for an aggregate €77,34 million and Naspers, a further 1,168,469 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R1,49 billion.

One company issued a profit warning this week: Santova.

During the week two companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Combined Motor Holdings and Trustco.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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Botswana-based private equity firm, Africa Lighthouse Capital, has announced the acquisition of a significant minority equity stake in Bayport Financial Services Botswana, a regulated microfinance provider serving government and other wage-earning employees, for an undisclosed sum.

Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations de Côte d’Ivoire Capital (CDC-CI Capital) has made an equity investment FCFA350 million in the E-Health Development Agency (ADES) to support the development of telemedicine and connected care in Côte d’Ivoire. ADES offers telemedicine and outpatient care services through its UMED platform, which includes online consultations, home medical visits, biomedical analyses, and remote medical monitoring for patient follow-up, particularly for those with chronic diseases.

Moroccan fintech, Chari, has raised US$12 million in a Series A round led by SPE Capital and Orange Ventures, and including Verod-Kepple, Global Founders Capital, Plug and Play, Endeavor Catalyst, Pincus Capital, Al Khwarizmi Ventures, UM6P Ventures, Axian Group, Uncovered Fund, AfriMobility, P1 Ventures, Reflect Ventures, Dragon Capital, MyAsia VC, Harambean Prosperity Fund and H&S Invest Holding. Business angels Michael Lahyani and Karim Beguir also joined the round. Chari is the first VC-backed startup in Morocco to be granted a payment institution license by Bank Al-Maghrib, the country’s central bank.

In Nigeria, online travel group, Wakanow, has acquired Nairabox, a Nigerian event and cinema ticketing platform, for an undisclosed sum. The acquisition signifies Wakanow’s expansion beyond traditional travel services into the broader entertainment and lifestyle sectors, aiming to create a comprehensive digital ecosystem that integrates travel, entertainment, and cultural experiences.

Mi Vida, a Kenyan residential build-to-sell developer, focusing primarily on affordable and mid-market green-rated housing, has announced the signing of a share purchase agreement for a management-led buyout of the business from Actis for an undisclosed sum.

Cameroon-based fintech, REasy, has raised US$1,8 million in pre-seed funding to expand its operations across West Africa and strengthen its trade infrastructure. The round was led by Ingressive Capital, Launch Africa, and 54 Collective, with participation from Digital Africa, Christophe Chausson, Mathias Léopoldie, and Joël Nana Kontchou. The trade-finance platforms, founded in 2023, offers cross-border payments, logistics and compliance services to SME importers.

Kestrel Capital East Africa, an East African investment bank and stockbroker in Kenya, announced its acquisition by Theo Capital Holdings through a landmark Management Buyout. The deal was announced at the firm’s 30-year anniversary celebrations. Financial terms were not disclosed.

A consortium of investors comprising SPE PEF III (SPE Capital), Proparco and Amethis MENA Fund II (Amethis) has invested in Delta Holdings B.V., a prominent manufacturer of specialty additives with a focus on the paint and coatings industry that has a strong international presence in Egypt and India. Financial terms were not disclosed but the investment will support Delta Holdings in broadening its product offering and accelerating its export-oriented initiatives.

Tunisian fintech, PayDay, has announced the closing of its first pre-seed financing round led at a valuation of US$3 million, by UGFS North Africa (United Gulf Financial Services), with participation from TALYS Group and BioProtection SA. The startup combines salary-backed financing and micro-Takaful protection to foster financial well-being and inclusion across Tunisia and beyond.

Jahazii, a Kenyan fintech startup providing earned wage access and payroll infrastructure for Africa’s informal economy, has raised US$400,000 in pre-seed funding. The blended round—featuring equity, debt, and grant funding —drew investors including Antler East Africa, DEG Impulse, Jozi Angels, Innovest Afrika, and several strategic angel investors. The company will use the new capital to scale its software platform that unifies HR management, payroll processing, and embedded financial services for operations-heavy sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture.

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