Tuesday, September 16, 2025
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How a boardwalk sideshow changed modern medicine

Coney Island had its peep shows, its freak shows, its barkers and rides. And tucked between them was an exhibit of premature infants in glass boxes, tended by trained nurses. This wasn’t entertainment – it was the beginning of modern neonatal care, smuggled in as a carnival act.

On a warm summer’s day in the early 1900s, the boardwalk at Coney Island was alive with noise and colour. Barkers shouted promises of firebreathers, snake charmers, and the world’s smallest horse. Music drifted from carousels, mingling with the smell of popcorn and salt air. Families came for spectacle, and spectacle is what they got.

But tucked between the sideshows and the thrill rides was a very different kind of attraction. Inside a pristine white pavilion, for the price of 25 cents, visitors could step into what was called The Infantorium. There, behind glass doors, tiny premature babies lay in metal incubators, tended by uniformed nurses. Some weighed barely one kilogram. Many had been declared hopeless by hospitals. Yet here they were – breathing, growing, and clinging to life.

The man behind this improbable exhibit was Martin Arthur Couney. To the public, he was the Incubator Doctor, a pioneer who brought medical technology out of hospitals and into amusement parks. To the medical establishment, he was something closer to a charlatan – mysterious in background, evasive about his qualifications, and far too willing to place fragile infants on public display.

And yet, over the course of four decades, Couney’s incubator sideshows saved thousands of lives.

The man who invented himself

Couney’s own story was as much a performance as the ones he staged. Born Michael Cohen in Germany in 1869, he later reinvented himself as Martin Couney and claimed a background that changed depending on the telling. Sometimes he said he had studied medicine in Leipzig or Berlin. Other times he insisted he had apprenticed under Pierre-Constant Budin, the French obstetrician credited as a father of modern perinatal medicine.

The record tells a murkier tale. For starters, there is no evidence that he ever earned a medical degree. Some reports suggest he emigrated to the United States as early as 1888, which would make his claims of extensive European training difficult to reconcile. Still, whether through apprenticeship or sheer force of will, he absorbed enough knowledge to talk convincingly about neonatal care. More importantly, he understood something that few in the medical profession grasped at the time: premature infants were not necessarily doomed, and the incubator might offer them a chance.

From chicken coops to child hatcheries

The incubator, by the time Couney discovered it, was not a new idea. Farmers had long used heated boxes to hatch chickens, and in the late 19th century, French physicians began adapting the idea for infants born too soon. One of them, Stéphane Tarnier, introduced a version that maintained a warm, regulated environment, while his assistant Budin (yes, the same Budin that Couney claimed to have studied under) refined the design further.

But the medical establishment was sceptical. Incubators were expensive, untested, and to many doctors, the effort seemed wasted on babies they believed were too weak to survive.

Couney thought differently. In 1896, he arranged to display Budin’s “child hatchery” at the Berlin Industrial Exposition. The public reaction was astonishing. Crowds flocked to see the tiny infants in their glass-fronted boxes. For many, it was the first time they had encountered a premature baby who had a chance of survival. Couney realised that spectacle could serve as persuasion. If doctors would not yet embrace the incubator, perhaps the public would.

A sideshow with a serious purpose

When Couney brought his incubator shows to the United States, he leaned fully into the pageantry. His exhibits travelled from one world fair to another before finding permanent homes at Coney Island and Atlantic City. The branding varied – sometimes “The Infantorium,” sometimes “Baby Incubators” – but the concept was the same. Visitors paid admission, nurses cared for the infants around the clock, and the curious filed past the glass cases in droves.

It was, in one sense, theatre. Nurses were encouraged to lift the babies out and cuddle them in view of the crowd. Posters declared, “All the world loves a baby.” But behind the theatrics was a sophisticated operation. The incubators were carefully engineered, warmed by boilers that circulated hot water through pipes beneath the infants’ cribs, with thermostats to regulate the temperature. Air was filtered twice, first through wool soaked in antiseptic, then through dry wool again before entering the chamber. Every effort was made to reduce contamination and maintain cleanliness.

As you can imagine, the costs were enormous. Round-the-clock feeding, equipment, and nursing care added up to more than most families could dream of affording. In 1903, Couney estimated that caring for one premature baby cost $15 a day, or roughly $400 in today’s terms. Yet he never asked parents to pay. The entrance fees, morally questionable as they were, funded the entire operation.

Critics and controversies

Not everyone was impressed. From the beginning, medical journals questioned Couney’s motives. The Lancet described the practice as an “unscrupulous way to make money”. Child welfare groups accused him of objectifying infants, treating them as exhibits rather than patients. The very location of his shows – wedged between animal acts and risqué peep shows – seemed to confirm the charge.

The 1911 Coney Island fire deepened the criticism. Though every infant was rescued, the idea that fragile lives had been placed in danger within a theme park struck many as irresponsible. Others pointed to the proliferation of imitation incubator shows, often poorly run and unsanitary, which further tarnished the concept.

And yet, for all the controversy, Couney’s results spoke loudly. His survival rates were significantly higher than those of hospitals that admitted premature infants. Parents who had been told to prepare for funerals instead brought home children who thrived.

A quiet defiance of eugenics

What made Couney’s work even more radical was the cultural climate in which he operated. The early 20th century was the height of the eugenics movement in America, a time when many in the medical community openly questioned whether premature babies should be saved at all. Eugenics exhibits, sometimes set up on the very same fairgrounds, celebrated the “fittest” families and promoted slogans like “Kill defectives, save the nation”.

To save premature infants was, in that worldview, to preserve weakness and to give it a chance to spread to future generations. Couney rejected the premise entirely. He insisted that given care and time, these children could survive and flourish. Every incubator he placed on display was not only a medical intervention but also a public argument against a brutal ideology.

The long arc of recognition

Couney spent decades travelling from fair to fair, and when he finally settled his operations permanently at Coney Island and Atlantic City, his shows ran year after year. Behind the glass, thousands of premature infants passed through his care. By his own reckoning, he and his nurses saved more than 6,500 lives.

Yet even as he racked up successes, Couney remained an outsider. Hospitals refused his offers to donate incubators when his shows closed. The medical establishment continued to view him with suspicion, partly because of his uncertain credentials, partly because of his unorthodox methods.

It was only in the years after his death in 1950 that his reputation shifted. By then, incubators had become standard equipment in neonatal units. Hospitals were doing what Couney had been doing for decades, though now with institutional legitimacy and without the carnival bunting.

The legacy of the Incubator Doctor

Couney’s life remains wrapped in mystery. We may never know the full truth of his training, or whether he embellished his past to protect his credibility. But what is clear is the scale of his impact. In an era when premature babies were dismissed as unfit to live, he proved otherwise.

His shows were at once bizarre and humane, a mixture of spectacle and science that unsettled many but comforted those who mattered most: the parents who watched their children grow stronger inside those heated glass boxes.

Today, neonatal intensive care is one of the most advanced branches of medicine, with technologies that would have looked like science fiction in Couney’s day. But the principle is the same – the belief that even the smallest, frailest infants deserve a chance.

That conviction, once dismissed as quackery, began its long march to acceptance not in the corridors of hospitals, but in the carnival pavilions of Coney Island.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Altron | Equites | Harmony | Impala Platinum | KAP | Libstar | Metrofile | Rainbow Chicken | Sibanye-Stillwater | South32 | STADIO | Trellidor | Truworths)

Altron flags a flat interim performance (JSE: AEL)

The market didn’t love it

Altron’s share price dropped 10% on Thursday based on a voluntary update that indicates a flat revenue and EBITDA performance for the six months to August 2025. They’ve noted a tougher operating environment with tight IT budgets.

Of course, a flat group performance doesn’t mean that there aren’t big swings at segmental level. The Platforms segment achieved double-digit revenue growth (which naturally means solid EBITDA growth as well), while the IT Services segment bore the brunt of the trickier environment. The Distribution segment has also had a tough time.

Full details will be available when interim results are released on 3 November.


Equites Property Fund remains committed to shifting capital from the UK to SA (JSE: EQU)

The loan-to-value ratio is expected to drop sharply thanks to disposals

Equites released a pre-close update that deals with the six months ending August 2025. They’ve used it as an opportunity to remind the market that the plan is to sell off the UK portfolio and allocate the capital to South Africa instead. How times have changed in the past decade in the property sector!

The UK portfolio seems to be in decent shape at the moment, which would support an exit on reasonable terms. In South Africa, the appeal is that there’s limited availability of large land that is suitable for logistics hubs, hence the desire by Equites to get moving on its land parcel for development. It’s been an expensive four years of development (peaking at over R2.5 billion in 2024) and they expect it to settle at R1 billion in FY26.

The loan-to-value ratio is estimated to be 37.9% at the end of this interim period. Thanks to the extensive disposals, they expect it to drop to 24.3% by the end of the 2026 financial year. Other important guidance is that they expect the distribution per share to increase by between 5% and 7% for the year.


Harmony has its heart set on copper, but they need to maximise the gold opportunity (JSE: HAR)

Gold production in FY26 is still expected to be below FY24 levels

Harmony Gold may have gold in the name, but they are definitely splitting their love across two commodities at the moment. They expect to conclude the MAC Copper acquisition in October as part of their diversification plan.

Of course, if gold wasn’t shooting the lights out at the moment, the market would probably be more enamoured with the copper strategy. Instead, we have a situation where Harmony is lagging its peers due to gold production that dipped by 5% year-on-year at a time when the gold price has dished up a huge opportunity. Just because they are “within guidance” doesn’t mean that investors are happy.

Here’s the bigger frustration: production guidance for FY26 is between 1,400,000 and 1,500,000 ounces. That’s not encouraging vs. FY25 at 1,479,671 ounces. It’s also well below the FY24 number of 1,561,815 ounces, so things are going backwards.

Unfortunately, the drop in production has been accompanied by a substantial increase in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of 17%. Again, that’s in line with guidance, but that doesn’t make it good. Guidance for FY26 is AISC of between R1,150,000/kg and R1,220,000/kg, another significant increase vs. FY25 at R1,054,346/kg.

Despite major metrics going the wrong way in FY25, HEPS increased by 26% thanks to the one thing that Harmony cannot control: the gold price. Based on the guidance for FY26, they will need the gold price to keep shining brightly next year.


FY25 was a year to forget for Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP)

PGM prices were flat for the year ended June, with hopes of better times to come

As I’ve written many times in Ghost Bites, the PGM sector rally has been firmly forward-looking rather than based on the performance over the past year. Impala Platinum is further proof of that, with ugly numbers for the year ended June 2025 that saw revenue dip by 1.1% and EBITDA fall by 19.8%. HEPS was down by 69.5%.

The reason for the financial pain was a small dip in sales volumes at a time when the rand price per 6E ounce was flat. Mining costs certainly don’t sit still, so a year in which revenue goes nowhere means a period of margin compression.

The silver lining was the cash, with a major swing into positive free cash flow and even the declaration of a dividend of 165 cents per share (more than double HEPS for the year). Impala’s dividend policy is based on free cash flow.

The outlook for FY26 is growth in unit costs of between 4% and 9%. They expect saleable production of between 3.4 and 3.6 million ounces, which implies decent growth on the FY25 number of 3.37 million ounces. But of course, what they really need is for the PGM price to behave itself.


Nothing ever seems to get better for KAP investors (JSE: KAP)

The share price is way down this year and so are the earnings

KAP has released financials for the year ended June 2025. They aren’t good, with revenue down 2%, operating profit down 14% and HEPS nosediving 47%. Unsurprisingly, there’s no dividend.

Concerningly, it seems like the fourth quarter had the worst operating conditions of the year, which means negative momentum going into the new financial year.

The ramp-up of the new MDF line at PG Bison is absolutely key to getting the numbers into the green, with revenue up 10% and operating profit down by a nasty 28% in that business. Operating margin has fallen sharply from 17.4% to 11.3%. Sadly, margins are expected to be below historical levels in the near term, with market conditions making it difficult to optimise this investment.

Elsewhere, Safripol grew revenue by 4% and operating profit by 43%. Operating margin in that business increased from 3.8% to 5.2%, which is still a paper thin margin. At Unitrans, revenue fell 4% and operating profit was down 14%, a good example of operating margins going the wrong way. Feltex is a particularly nasty story in the OEM automotive value chain, with revenue down 8% and operating profit down 37% due to lower volumes and non-recurring costs related to a model changeover. Sleep Group went the right way at least, with revenue up 7% and operating profit up 27% thanks to improved mix. Finally, Optix remains a mess, with revenue up just 1% and an operating loss of R44 million – you definitely can’t scale into profitability with a growth rate of 1%!

KAP just never seems to catch a break.


Positive momentum at Libstar – at last (JSE: LBR)

I’ve certainly done my part in boosting cheese sales

Libstar has been a disappointing story in our market. The FMCG company has lost around 65% of its value since listing in 2018. Like so many consumer businesses in South Africa, things just haven’t worked out as planned.

The good news is that the six months to June 2025 reflect solid positive momentum in the business. If they can keep this up, then things could get very interesting for punters – as evidenced by the share price being up 14% in the past month.

For the six months, HEPS will be up by between 15.1% and 25.2%. Normalised HEPS from continuing operations will be up by between 10.4% and 20.4%. Much like a slice of their cheese, whichever way you cut it, that’s still yummy.


Metrofile’s earnings have dropped, but a potential deal is still on the table (JSE: MFL)

So, the usual story then

If you threw darts at a timeline in recent years, chances are good that you would hit a spot where (1) Metrofile’s earnings are under pressure, and (2) someone is considering an offer for the company. The latest period is no different.

For the year ended June 2025, a trading statement tells us that Metrofile expects HEPS to drop by between 12% and 27%. Ouch.

Luckily, a Delaware-based company is still serious about making an offer, with discussions at an “advanced stage” – although the timeline has been extended based on engagements with regulators.

The share price is up 20% year-to-date and a whopping 106% over six months. This has everything to do with the potential offer and nothing to do with the underlying earnings, that’s for sure.


A pot of gold at Rainbow Chicken – and yes, even a dividend (JSE: RBO)

The volatility in chicken earnings remains breathtaking

If you follow the poultry sector, you’ll know that modest changes in revenue can drive substantial moves in profits. This is because of the operating leverage inherent in the model, as well as the structurally low operating margins that are impacted by modest moves in e.g. gross margin.

What does this look like in practice? Rainbow Chicken’s numbers for the year to June 2025 reflect growth in revenue of 9% and a move in EBITDA margin from 4.4% to 6.7%. By the time you get to HEPS, you find an insane jump of 224%!

Such is the improvement in this sector that there’s even a dividend of 20 cents per share (vs. HEPS of 65.57 cents).

I must remind you that it doesn’t take much for earnings in this sector to very quickly head the other way, so tread carefully. Personally, I prefer to eat chicken rather than invest in it.


Gold and US PGMs gave Sibanye-Stillwater’s earnings a huge boost (JSE: SSW)

There’s a 19-fold increase in headline earnings!

For a long time, I considered myself a bit unlucky in Sibanye. I watched my stake sit in the red for ages, which is unfortunately a feature rather than a bug when it comes to cyclical stocks. Still, the PGM market felt like it took forever to get going.

But where I got extremely lucky was in my decision to take the money and run a month ago. It’s rare in life that you genuinely sell at the top of a chart, so I’ll take the wins where I can. The negative momentum over the past month has been pretty rough, with the share price having dropped by 20% in just a few weeks:

If you think the share price is volatile, wait until you see the earnings. Sibanye released results for the six months to June 2025 and they reflect headline earnings that have gone to the moon, up 19 fold vs. the prior year!

I always skip straight to the segmental reporting to see where the big moves were. The biggest contributor in this period was South African gold, with adjusted EBITDA more than doubling from R2.2 billion to R4.8 billion. That’s only slightly more than South African PGMs, with remarkably consistent adjusted EBITDA of R4.78 billion. So, that’s a strong performance locally.

Looking abroad, the big win was in US PGMs, with both the underground and recycling operations experiencing a huge positive move in earnings. If you add them together, adjusted EBITDA jumped from R635 million to R5.15 billion. A special mention must also go to zinc for an adjusted EBITDA turnaround from a loss of R351 million to profit of R657 million. The remaining ugly duckling is lithium, with a loss of R310 million that is even higher than the loss of R280 million in the comparable period.

Unfortunately, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act means that the big beautiful S45X10 credits that Sibanye enjoys on PGMs in the US will be phased out between 2031 and 2034. That may sound far away, but mining is a long-term game. This legislative change has driven an impairment of R3.8 billion to Sibanye’s PGM operations.

I must note that there’s an even larger impairment of R5.3 billion to the Keliber lithium project, based on changes to forecast lithium prices. Due to Sibanye’s efforts to have its fingers in many pies, in some cases in contrasting strategies (PGMs vs. battery technology), chances are that some parts of the group are doing well and others are in trouble at any point in time.

Overall though, the group is in a much better place than before. They are taking advantage of the improved market conditions and they are telling a bullish story around cash generation heading into 2026.


A strong year for South32 (JSE: S32)

Revenue and profits both came in significantly higher

South32 has released results for the year ended June 2025. Revenue from continuing operations was up 17% and the ordinary dividend increased by 71%, so there’s plenty for investors to smile about. Diluted HEPS was 91% higher

The results presentation includes this handy chart that shows how the group made its money in FY25, adjusted for the disposal of Illawarra Metallurgical Coal, the impact of a cyclone on manganese in Australia and a few other bits and pieces:

This gives you a really useful lay of the land. It also shows you just how important alumina and aluminium is to the group. Thankfully, Mozal Aluminium (which is likely to stop producing after March 2026 based on energy availability) is just one part of the group. It contributed 355kt of the total 671kt of aluminium in FY25, so it’s big enough to be an annoying drag on earnings, but definitely not big enough to cause a major issue all by itself.

Another interesting view is to see just how different the margins are across these commodities, as shown in these charts:

When people talk about the “mix effect” in margin, this is what they mean. As revenue changes across the underlying businesses, group margins shift based on the changing mix of revenue. The effect is less noticeable in groups with more consistent margins across the segments.

Overall, South32 is telling a bullish story as they head into a new financial year, with significant focus on Worsley Alumina as major growth capex project.


Excellent growth at STADIO shows that tertiary education is firmly a for-profit business (JSE: SDO)

Student growth is expected to remain strong

STADIO has released results for the six months to June 2025. They are really good, with student numbers up 9% in semester 1 and revenue growth of 16%. A mix of price and volumes growth is exactly what investors want to see, along with cost control that has led to a 24% jump in EBITDA. By the time you reach the bottom of the income statement, you’ll find a 28% increase in core HEPS.

With almost 55,000 students currently in the group, they reckon they can reach 80,000 students by 2030. Thanks to having multiple tertiary offerings in the group, I certainly wouldn’t bet against them achieving that target.

STADIO’s share price has tripled in the past 3 years. The underlying growth in tertiary education has certainly helped, but they still needed to deliver on the opportunity.


Have we reached the bottom for Trellidor? (JSE: TRL)

Hopefully the latest financial year is the end of the slide – but the UK is a worry

Trellidor has confirmed that the sale of Taylor Blinds and NMC became effective on 25 August 2025. The final price (after balance sheet adjustments) was R51.9 million. The good news is that a portion of this price will go towards further debt reductions, with the group having made excellent progress in reducing net debt from R146.7 million as at June 2023 to R85.3 million as at December 2024. Based on those dates, you can see that they’ve been in trouble for a while.

Is the pain over yet? Maybe, maybe not. A trading statement dealing with the year ended June 2025 shows us that HEPS will drop by between -5% and -15%, coming in at between 30.6 cents and 34.21 cents. The Trellidor UK division has been a disappointment in this period, which is a worry given the ongoing poor performance of the South African business.

The current share price of R1.92 means a Price/Earnings multiple of mid-single digits. Given the recent track record and now the concern around the UK, I still wouldn’t call that a bargain. Things might get worse for this share price, as evidenced by it closing 11% lower on the day of this announcement on strong volumes.


Is there a worse retailer in South Africa than Truworths? (JSE: TRU)

Sometimes, shares are cheap for a reason

There are some really innovative and interesting retailers in South Africa. Truworths definitely isn’t one of them. About the only positive thing I can say is that they aren’t losing money offshore like some competitors are doing. Office UK grew revenue by 9% in the year ended June 2025. But even with that revenue growth, trading profit (if you adjust for a major once-off in the base) was basically flat.

“Flat” is more than we can say for Truworths Africa, still the biggest contributor to trading profit in the group but not for long at this rate. Revenue went nowhere in this period and trading profit fell by around 16%.

Add these two segments together into a group result and you’ll find sales up by 3.2%, gross margin down 100 basis points to 41.3% and operating margin down 730 basis points to 20%. HEPS dropped by just over 8% to 752.1 cents and the dividend followed suit.

Any highlights? Well, the balance sheet is in a net cash position rather than net debt, but this can often just be due to the timing of working capital movements for retailers.

Truworths is trading on a Price/Earnings multiple of 8x. In my view, that’s still much too high. This is probably the last name I would own in this sector.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Associates of two director of Renergen (JSE: REN) – including the CEO) sold shares worth R7.8 million.
    • The CEO of Grindrod (JSE: GND) – who is shortly leaving the group – sold share awards worth R4.4 million. The announcement isn’t explicit on whether this is the taxable portion or not.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Sasol (JSE: SOL) sold shares worth R501k.
    • A non-executive director of Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) sold shares worth R410k.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of PBT Group (JSE: PBG) bought shares in the company worth almost R80k.
    • An associate of the CEO of Acsion (JSE: ACS) bought shares worth R42k.
    • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) is still on the bid, buying R2k worth of shares in an illiquid market for the stock.
  • Frontier Transport (JSE: FTH) announced that CFO Mark Wilkin will be retiring with effect from August 2025, after roughly four decades with the company! He’s replaced by Ulandy Gribble, who is currently in charge of the numbers at Golden Arrow Bus Services (the largest subsidiary). It’s always good to see an internal succession plan playing out.
  • Randgold & Exploration Company (JSE: RNG) released results for the six months to June 2025. This is a tiny listed company, so it just gets a passing mention here. The operating loss improved by 24% to R8.3 million (but that’s still a loss obviously) and the headline loss per share was 8.80 cents.

Note: Ghost Bites is my journal of each day’s news on SENS. It reflects my own opinions and analysis and should only be one part of your research process. Nothing you read here is financial advice. E&OE. Disclaimer.

South African M&A Analysis H1 2025

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Global uncertainty and local budget-related wrangles still weigh on confidence and demand in South Africa. Yet, higher commodity prices and market volatility created opportunities. M&A activity by value of SA-listed companies rose 66% in H1 2025 compared with the prior year, and DealMakers recorded 164 deals worth R418,3bn.

Source: DealMakers Online

Excluding failed transactions, the real estate sector led activity (37%), followed by resources (13%), technology (7%), and industrial and manufacturing (7%) – broadly mirroring last year’s trends.

The top 10 deals by value reflected this pattern, with resources and real estate dominating. Highlights included Gold Fields’ acquisition of Gold Road Resources (A$3,7bn|R43,7bn) and Primary Health Properties’ acquisition of Assura (£1,79bn|R43,3bn).

Excluding deals by foreign companies with secondary listings in South Africa, deal value for H1 2025 more than doubled to R228,5bn. SA-domiciled, exchange-listed companies were involved in 31 cross-border transactions during the period, with Africa, Australia and Europe the most active destinations. Once again, real estate deals topped the list, followed by technology.

Despite increased opportunities, many companies remain cautious, holding cash yet to be deployed. Instead, firms have turned to multi-billion rand share buyback programmes and special distributions to reward shareholders.

Source: DealMakers Online

The scale of this shift is striking:

  • In H1 2010, repurchases accounted for 10% of General Corporate Finance (GCF) activity and just 2% of aggregate transaction value.
  • By H1 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, they had risen to 33% of activity and 10% of value.
  • Fast forward to H1 2025, repurchases dominated, representing 50% of GCF transactions and value (R227,5bn). Together with special and capital reduction distributions (R30,4bn), companies returned R258bn to shareholders in the period.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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The deal grabbing the headlines this week is the proposed R7,2 billion acquisition of private schools group Curro by the Jannie Mouton Foundation (JMF). The delisting of the company and its reincorporation as a non-profit organisation would give it the flexibility to reinvest all profits by expanding its bursary programme and building schools in rural and lower-income areas. JMF which already holds a 3.36% stake has offered shareholders an equivalent of R13 per share – a 60% premium to the share price prior to the announcement. The R13 settlement is in the form of cash and a combination of shares in Capitec, and PSG Financial Services. While the deal will certainly redefine private education, public opinion as to the reason for the deal varies, ranging from an act of philanthropy to the need to adjust the current model, away from the shareholder spotlight, in response to the decline in demand for private schooling.

Rex Trueform has acquired a further 21% equity interest in Byte Orbit from majority shareholder A Ramdath for a purchase consideration of R21 million. The price tag will be settled through the issue of 1,69 million new N shares at R12.39 per share. Rex Trueform acquired its initial 30.2% investment in Byte Orbit in December 2024 for R21 million.

Continuing with its strategic repositioning and restructuring programme, Accelerate Property Fund has announced the sale of the Buzz and the Waterford Centre. The properties, located in Fourways in Gauteng, were disposed of to Dorpstraat Capital growth Fund (owned by Dorpstraat Property Investments, Rabie Property Group, Nedbank Property Partners and Alpha Plus) and Property House Group Investments (ultimate holders being the Wimson Trust and the Gray Trust) for an aggregate consideration of R215 million. The disposal yield is 9.5% after taking into account the agreed exit of Pick n Pay as the anchor tenant at the Buzz.

Delta Property Fund is to sell the Parkmore property situated at 142-144 Fourth Street in a category 2 transaction. Afrocentric Intellectual Property will pay R19 million in cash for the property. The sale is part of Delta’s business and portfolio optimisation strategy and proceeds will be used to reduce its debt balance.

Mahube Infrastructure has cautioned its shareholders that it has received a proposal from a third party in relation to proposed acquisition of all the issued ordinary shares in the company, excluding certain shareholders, leading to the delisting of Malhube. Further details will be provided to shareholders in due course.

Metrofile has advised that the company is still in discussions with Main Street 2093, a special purpose company through which the potential transaction will be implemented. While talks remain at an advanced stage, the company says the timeline has been extended due to regulatory engagements.

Shareholders have approved the disposal by Jubilee of the South African Chrome and PGM Operations to One Chrome announced in June for a disposal consideration of US$90 million (c. R1,59 billion).

Mantengu Mining has finalised the disposal of 30% of its shareholding in Blue Ridge Platinum (BRP) to BEE parties – a condition of the deal announced in October 2024 which saw Mantengu acquire BRP from Ridge Mining owned Sibanye-Stillwater and Imbani Platinum SPV (50%-owned by Entrepreneurs Business Group). The 30% stake was disposed of for R1.00 to the BEE consortium, represented by Vitai Resources (20%), the BRP Mine Employee Trust (5%) and the BRP Mine Community Trust (5%).

The scheduled general meeting of Ayo Technology Solution shareholders of 20 August 2025, to vote on the scheme offer by Sekunjalo Investment and delisting of the company, has been postponed a month at the request of the Public Investment Corporation. The institution requires additional time to adequately assess the merits and risks associated with holding shares in a delisted entity. Should shareholders vote in favour of the scheme, Ayo’s listing will terminate on 28 October 2025.

Norwegian development finance institution Norfund and South African fund Infra Impact will, in partnership, invest in Green Create, a waste-to-value group with operations in South Africa and Mauritius. Green Create facilities treat both effluent wastewater as well as agricultural waste, reducing the load on the downstream municipal water treatment infrastructure as well as landfilling and generate biogas that can replace fossil fuels in industrial processes.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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In terms of the revised offer to Assura plc shareholders by Primary Health Properties plc (PHP), a further 292,922,357 new PHP shares listed this week. The revised offer remains open for acceptances until 13h00 on 10 September 2025. As at 27 August 2025, PHP had received acceptances in respect of c.92.02% of the issued share capital of Assura.

Fairvest has successful completed a capital raise of R976,7 million via an accelerated bookbuild. Fairvest will issue 180,872,707 new B shares at a price of 540 cents per share – a 2.28% discount to the 30-day VWAP of 553 cents per share. Initially the company proposed to raise capital of c.R400 million but increased the raise on strong demand. The proceeds will be used for acquisitions, investments and the reduction of debt.

MTN Zakhele Futhi (MTNZF) has disposed of the last tranche of its MTN shares. The 2,476,448 MTN shares were disposed of in the open market over the period 18 to 20 August 2025 raising an aggregate R391 million after costs. The unwind of the MTNZF scheme will now be finalised – following the sale of the last MTN shares held, MTNZF’s NAV is c.R494 million (R4.00 per share).

Grindrod shareholders are set to receive a special dividend of 32.3 cents per share in terms of a cash return of 25% of the consideration received from the divestitures of non-core assets.

With strong cash generation and cash reserves in excess of operational requirements, Italtile will pay shareholders a special dividend of 98 cents per share as announced in the Group’s annual results released this week.

ASP Isotopes’ inward secondary listing on the Main Board of the JSE became effective on 27 August 2025. 91,41 million shares were listed at R217 per share reflecting a market capitalisation of R19,84 billion. In May the Nasdaq-listed company made an offer to Renergen minorities to take the company private, with the deal becoming unconditional during August.

Life Healthcare’s special dividend of 235 cents per share will be paid to shareholders on 22 September 2025.

Suspended Wesizwe Platinum has again pushed out the revised timeline for publication of its Annual Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2024 from 29 August to 30 September citing the status of the audit which is currently undergoing a final review and close out process. The company’s listing was suspended on 3 June 2025.

Following the approval of the scheme by shareholders and the payment of the scheme consideration by Eastern Trading on 25 August, AH-Vest shares were delisted from the JSE on 26 August 2025. Eastern Trading acquired the remaining 4.3% stake in AH-Vest at 55c per share – a significant premium to the share price prior to the announcement of 3c per share.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

South32 will continue with its US$200 million repurchase programme announced in August 2024. The shares will be repurchased over the period 12 September 2025 to 11 September 2026.

On March 6, 2025, Ninety One plc announced that it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to £30 million. The shares will be purchased on the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 48,846 ordinary shares at an average price of 189 pence for an aggregate £92,699.

Investec ltd commenced its share purchase and buy-back programme of up to R2,5 billion (£100 million). Over the period 20 – 26 August 2025, Investec ltd purchased on the LSE, 970,991 Investec plc ordinary share at an average price of £5.4694 per share and 889,606 Investec plc shares on the JSE at an average price of R130.9063 per share. Over the same period Investec ltd repurchased 757,369 of its shares at an average price per share of R131.887. The Investec ltd shares will be cancelled, and the Investec plc shares will be treated as if they were treasury shares in the consolidated annual financial statements of the Investec Group.

Bytes Technology will undertake a share repurchase programme of up to a maximum aggregate consideration of £25 million. The purpose of the programme is to reduce Bytes’ share capital. This week 374,522 shares were repurchased at an average price per share of £3.93 for an aggregate £1,47 million.

Glencore plc’s current share buy-back programme plans to acquire shares of an aggregate value of up to US$1 billion. The shares will be repurchased on the LSE, BATS, Chi-X and Aquis exchanges and is expected to be completed in February 2026. This week 9,3 million shares were repurchased at an average price of £2.94 per share for an aggregate £27,34 million.

In May 2025 Tharisa plc announced it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to US$5 million. Shares have been trading at a significant discount, having been negatively impacted by the global commodity pricing environment, geo-political events and market volatility. Over the period 18 to 21 August 2025, the company repurchased 47,617 shares at an average price of R21.09 on the JSE and 165,105 shares at 89.48 pence per share on the LSE.

In May 2025, British American Tobacco plc extended its share buyback programme by a further £200 million, taking the total amount to be repurchased by 31 December 2025 to £1,1 billion. The extended programme is being funded using the net proceeds of the block trade of shares in ITC to institutional investors. This week the company repurchased a further 358,878 shares at an average price of £42.00 per share for an aggregate £15,3 million.

During the period 18 to 22 August 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 1,305,123 Prosus shares for an aggregate €69,05 million and Naspers, a further 114,711 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R663,71 million.

Three companies issued profit warnings this week: Hulamin, Trellidor and Metrofile.

During the week two companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) and Metrofile.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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Moody’s announced that it intends to secure a majority equity stake in Middle East Rating & Investors Service (MERIS – an affiliate of Moody’s), a domestic credit rating agency in Egypt. The transaction builds on a longstanding relationship between the two companies and is subject to regulatory approvals. Following the transaction, MERIS will continue to operate as an independent affiliate of Moody’s while developing its own rating methodologies, issuing its own credit ratings, and maintaining a separate management team. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Finnfund announced a US$4 million debt investment in Poa Internet Kenya, a Kenyan internet service provider, to expand its network and improve internet accessibility. The investment aims to support Poa Internet in bridging the digital divide by providing affordable broadband internet to underserved communities in Kenya.

Hypeo Ai, a Moroccan startup streamlining influencer marketing through artificial intelligence, has announced an undisclosed investment from Renew Capital. Founded in 2024, Hypeo Ai helps brands and creators across Africa and the Middle East run faster, more efficient influencer campaigns by eliminating the need for manual tracking and fragmented tools. The platform connects brands with both human and AI-powered creators in under 15 minutes, offering an end-to-end campaign workflow that includes smart matching, pricing insights, and real-time performance tracking.

Norfund announced that it had taken a strategic minority equity investment in Kinetic Holdings Limited (popularly known as Kensta Group in East Africa), an East African distribution and manufacturing business. Kensta has been in existence for over 60 years and is dedicated to the supply of raw materials to the printing & packaging industry and the manufacturing of everyday essential paper-based products. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Inside Capital Partners announced and undisclosed investment in RDG Africa, a fast-growing leader in solar home systems and clean energy solutions across Southern and Central Africa. Founded in 2018, RDG delivers affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity to underserved households and small businesses through its innovative pay-as-you-go model in Zambia and the DRC.

Ghanaian agritech company, Complete Farmer, has received a US$5 million debt investment from Symbiotics. Complete Farmer operates a platform linking farmers, buyers and agricultural input suppliers.

The Facility for Energy Inclusion (Cygnum Capital) has signed a facility agreement to provide US$5,7 million in senior debt to finance Qair’s renewable energy assets in the Seychelles. This financing will be utilised by Qair for the development, building, operations, and maintenance of a 5.80 MWp Floating PV plant located in the Providence Lagoon on Mahé Island in Seychelles. The Seysun Lagoon FPV is backed by a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement with the Public Utilities Corporation.

The battery investment landscape: a $300bn+ market

The global battery market is undergoing a period of rapid expansion, driven by the increasing demand for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage and industrial electrification. By 2030, the market is expected to reach north of US$300bn,1,2 underscoring the scale of opportunity for investors. However, the competitive landscape is evolving, with technological advancements, supply chain shifts and regulatory developments shaping the sector’s future.

For investors, the following two key questions are pertinent:

  1. Will Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) become the dominant technology, and where are the biggest investment opportunities today?
  2. What role does sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) play in the global battery value chain, and where are the real opportunities for investors?

This article examines the battery market dynamics and explores how investors can position themselves for both short-term gains and long-term strategic advantage.

For decades, Lead-acid batteries dominated the global energy storage market, supplying power for automotive starters, industrial applications and backup power systems. However, the rapid evolution of Li-ion technology has fundamentally reshaped the competitive landscape, displacing Lead-acid as the preferred solution across nearly all major applications. This transition is accelerating, with forecasts suggesting the Lithium-Ion battery market will expand from $54bn today to upwards of $182bn by 2030, commanding a share of 60% of the total battery market by 2030, up from 40% in 2024.3, 4

The market trajectory underscores the pace of this transformation.

• 2018: Lead-acid still accounted for a large portion of global battery capacity, maintaining a stronghold in traditional automotive and industrial sectors. Li-ion was emerging as a dominant force in consumer electronics and early EV adoption.

• 2024: Li-ion accounted for 40%3, 4 of the global battery market, driven by falling production costs, superior energy density, and rising demand from EVs and grid storage solutions. Meanwhile, Lead-acid’s market share continued to decline, sustained primarily by legacy applications in backup power and industrial machinery.

• 2030: Li-ion will capture 60% of the global battery market, leaving Lead-acid with just over 20% market share.3, 4 The combination of cost reductions, superior performance and environmental regulations will further accelerate Lead-acid’s decline.

The accelerating transition from Lead-acid to Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology is being driven by a confluence of technical performance, economic performance (i.e., cost) and regulatory dynamics.

Technically, Li-ion batteries have established a clear advantage, offering superior energy density, faster charging, and significantly longer cycle life. These attributes are increasingly critical as energy storage applications grow more demanding across sectors ranging from electric mobility to grid infrastructure. Lead-acid batteries, by contrast, are struggling to keep pace, constrained by inherent limitations in chemistry and design.

Economically, the divergence is just as stark. Over the past decade, the cost of Li-ion batteries has dropped by nearly 90%,4 fuelled by rapid innovation, economies of scale, and global investment in research and development (R&D). Lead-acid, reliant on a mature and less scalable technology base, has seen only modest cost improvements. This widening cost-performance gap is fundamentally reshaping investment narratives in the energy storage space.

Environmental and regulatory considerations further tilt the scale. Lead-acid batteries contain toxic substances such as lead and sulfuric acid, exposing manufacturers and users to increasingly stringent environmental compliance requirements and costly disposal obligations. As sustainability standards tighten globally, Lead-acid’s risk profile is deteriorating, both reputationally and financially.

For investors, this transition presents a clear strategic opportunity: while Lead-acid investments are becoming riskier, Li-ion continues to gain momentum, making manufacturing, supply chain integration, and technology advancements in Li-ion the primary areas of focus.

While much of the global battery supply chain is concentrated in China, the US and Europe, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is emerging as a key player in the sector. Historically, the region has been viewed primarily as a raw material supplier, but there is now growing momentum towards local beneficiation and manufacturing. This shift presents new investment opportunities, particularly in refining, precursor material production and, eventually, battery assembly.

SSA’s growing relevance stems first from its commanding position in the global supply of critical minerals. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe and Namibia are home to some of the world’s largest reserves of Lithium, cobalt and nickel – all core components of Lithium-ion battery production. As geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism prompt supply chain diversification, these countries are becoming focal points in global sourcing strategies.

Beyond raw materials, there is a noticeable policy shift toward localisation. Governments across the region are rolling out incentives to attract investment in local refining and processing capacity. This move seeks to reverse the longstanding pattern of exporting unprocessed ore, to capture greater economic value domestically. For investors, this creates compelling prospects in battery precursor manufacturing and related midstream infrastructure, with potential benefits in both cost and supply chain resilience.

Simultaneously, demand for energy storage solutions within the region is on the rise. The need for off-grid electrification, industrial energy reliability, and nascent interest in electric mobility is beginning to establish a local market base. This shift presents an opportunity to support the development of decentralised, locally produced battery systems tailored to regional requirements.

Despite these advantages, challenges remain, including logistical constraints, regulatory risks, and infrastructure gaps. Investors considering SSA should take a measured approach, focusing on projects with strong government backing, clear policy support, and robust offtake agreements to mitigate risks.

Investing in batteries requires a clear understanding of both near-term and long-term market shifts. While Li-ion presents a compelling immediate opportunity, emerging technologies and regional supply chain developments will shape the sector’s future.

• Near-term opportunity (2025-2030): Li-ion remains the dominant and most scalable investment option, with well-established manufacturing and supply chains. Investors should focus on Li-ion-related manufacturing capacity, supply chain integration, and localisation strategies.

• Mid-term positioning (2030-2035): Monitor new technologies like sodium-ion and solid-state battery developments, particularly in cost-sensitive applications. Explore strategic partnerships with battery innovators to gain early exposure to next-generation technologies.

• Long-term strategy (beyond 2035): Assess SSA’s potential as a major battery production hub, particularly as local policies and infrastructure improve. Track high-potential battery chemistries that may challenge Li-ion at scale, depending on material innovations and regulatory shifts.

The battery market is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with Li-ion overtaking and displacing Lead-acid technology across nearly all applications. Investors who position themselves early in Li-ion manufacturing, supply chain development, and emerging technology tracking will be best placed to capture value in this evolving market.

Rautenbach is Vice-President and Dempers, a Manager | Singular Advisory Africa

1 Battery Market Outlook 2025-2030, GlobeNewsWire (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/04/3020360/28124/en/Battery-Market-Outlook-2025-2030-Insights-on-Electric-Vehicles-Energy-Storage-and-Consumer-Electronics-Growth.html)
2 Battery Market industry analysis, GrandViewResearch (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/battery-market)
3 World Energy Outlook Special Report, International Energy Agency (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/cb39c1bf-d2b3-446d-8c35-aae6b1f3a4a0/BatteriesandSecureEnergyTransitions.pdf)
4 Lithium-ion Battery Market Summary, GrandViewResearch (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/Lithium-ion-battery-market)

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

Ghost Bites (Afrimat | Bidcorp | Blue Label Telecoms | Curro | OUTsurance | Spur | Transpaco)

Afrimat’s ugly year continues (JSE: AFT)

The share price has shed 45% of its value in 2025

Afrimat is navigating quite the storm at the moment, with the business dealing with a most unfortunate cocktail of unfavourable commodity markets, major concerns around South African infrastructure and the overhang of potential corporate failure at ArcelorMittal (JSE: ACL) as a major customer. Although Afrimat has noted that the bulk of its supply to ArcelorMittal goes to ArcelorMittal’s Flats business, not the Longs business that is likely to be shut down, the market doesn’t like risk and especially not in a market like South Africa.

Speaking of risk, Afrimat recently rolled the dice in acquiring the Lafarge business, a transaction with substantial long-term potential and short-term pain.

The net result of all this is unfortunately a plummeting share price,

Afrimat has released a pre-close update dealing with the six months ending August. They note that although Q1 was weak, there were signs of improvement in Q2. This includes an improvement in sales volumes, as well as significant progress made on the integration of the Lafarge business.

Here’s a fun fact for you: 50% of the Transnet-approved quarries are owned by Afrimat. This gives you an idea of the potential upside in the business if we could just see an improvement to the South African infrastructure story. A separate and highly relevant point regarding Transnet is confirmation by Afrimat that the decline in logistics availability on the Saldanha export line has been stopped, which is obviously great news for the iron ore business.

Afrimat shareholders have historically been spoilt by the company’s diversification and ability to avoid the typical cyclical pain that is found in this sector. The recent combination of issues has proven to be too much for the market, leading to the huge decline in the share price. Afrimat is all the way back to the levels seen five years ago. Like all cyclicals, at some point this is likely to turn and those who buy at the bottom will make a fortune. Alas, figuring out the exact location of the bottom isn’t so easy.


Bidcorp just keeps delivering (JSE: BID)

This is one of the most solid names on the JSE

Bidcorp has released results for the year ended June 2025. With the recent performance of the rand, their position as one of the most effective rand hedges on the JSE was actually a negative in this period! This is evidenced by revenue being up 6.8% in constant currency, but only 4.3% as reported.

Trading profit increased by 6.4% and HEPS was up 6.5%. The dividend increased by 6.4%. It’s a dependable, simple shape to the income statement that appeals to long-term investors.

The share price closed 3.7% lower though, taking the year-to-date move to +4.7% (with very choppy trading along the way). Bidcorp trades at a lofty Price/Earnings multiple, hence why there’s no obvious direction to the share price in a period in which performance is positive, but also uninspiring.

As a quick note on underlying performance, it was the UK and Europe that saw a strong bump in profit in this period, with a positive contribution from emerging markets as well. Australasia was a drag on performance and is unfortunately the second largest segment in terms of profits, so that would’ve contributed to the share price dip on the day.


Blue Label Telecoms took an 18% bath on the day of releasing earnings (JSE: BLU)

And there was no shortage of fighting between bulls and bears on the socials

There are three types of people when it comes to Blue Label Telecoms: (1) those who claim to understand the financials, (2) those who at least acknowledge that they bought the stock based on momentum, rather than fundamentals, and (3) those who don’t buy complicated financials on principle. I fall into the third category.

It seems as though a number of people in the second category headed for the exit on Tuesday, with the share price closing 18% lower on the day of results. This is despite a 2% increase in gross profit and a 17% increase in EBITDA. Once you factor in the huge swing on the associates line though, you end up with a 262% increase in headline earnings!

It’s usually worth following the cash and seeing how a business actually makes its money. Blue Label generated cash from trading operations of R488 million and then spent so much on interest (and tax) that they ended up with a net cash outflow from operating activities of R466 million. The reason why the net decrease in group cash for the year to May 2025 was “only” R75 million is that they raised a whole lot of debt.

The sooner that Blue Label separates out Cell C and lists it as a standalone company, the better. The reaction by the market to these numbers tells you that people are jittery and unsure of what the fair value really is. Of course, this is both an opportunity and a risk, which is what makes markets so exciting!


Curro to be taken private at R13 per share (JSE: COH)

From growth darling to charity case – literally

A decade ago, Curro was the growth story on the JSE. People were fighting over each other for allocations in capital raises, with the story being clear: South Africa was failing its people and thus there was a huge opportunity in offering private education to middle-income South Africans. In some respects, they were right. The risk that was probably impossible to foresee at the time was a sharp decline in total births in South Africa, a function of both a huge shift in society and substantial emigration as well.

If you can’t fill the schools, it’s very hard to make money from them. Curro’s results for the six months to June tell a story of a company that is treading water, with revenue up 4.7% and flat EBITDA for the year. Recurring HEPS increased by just 0.2%.

Is that a sustainable business? Sure. Is it an appealing investment? No.

With very little likelihood (in my view) of the trend in learner numbers turning positive, Curro’s story has evolved from one of growth to one of social enterprise, where the company is capable of running at a sustainable profit, but probably not with the kind of metrics that investors want to see.

This is where the Jannie Mouton Stigting comes in, being a public benefit organisation that was founded by Mouton as an education investment vehicle and that currently has a 3.36% stake in Curro. Clearly, Curro is the perfect way to execute the overall dream of the organisation. The Jannie Mouton Stigting will be acquiring Curro and turning it into a non-profit company through this transaction.

I must say, I’m surprised that there is a reference in the announcement to a need to scale Curro even further. Perhaps they will invest in more schools aimed at lower-income families, with a price point to match. I hope so, as that would truly make a difference in South Africa. With the current pricing strategy, I just don’t think that Curro is targeting a broad enough group of kids.

The Jannie Mouton Stigting is paying up for the stake, with a price of R13 per share on the table for Curro. This is a reminder of the dangers of shorting, as having a short position in Curro would’ve been a perfectly reasonable thing to do under the current fundamental circumstances, yet this offer just came in at a 60% premium to the closing price on 25 August. Anyone caught short on this stock is seriously bleeding.

The deal will be paid for through cash (only 6.6% of the price) and a swap of Capitec and PSG Financial Services shares currently held by the trust. It’s therefore an incredibly clever situation in which the trust is using its capital base in highly successful companies to go and acquire a group that perfectly matches its objectives.

Other than for those who just saw their short positions obliterated, it’s hard to see how anyone could fault this deal. People like to hate on billionaires, yet another example of one stepping in to make up for the failings of government. Save your energy for hating on corrupt public officials instead.


A spectacular year for OUTsurance (JSE: OUT)

This adds to the positive sentiment in the financial services sector

Generally speaking, the insurance-based financial services groups are doing well at the moment. OUTsurance has added its voice (and growth) to that mix, with a trading update for the year ended June 2025.

They are enjoying not just decent premium growth, but also a favourable claims experience. Although they are incubating OUTsurance Ireland as a new business and are thus incurring start-up losses there, the growth elsewhere in the group is more than making up for it. In fact, it’s the Australian business that is really flying at the moment in terms of the larger segments, serving as a wonderful reminder that OUTsurance knows exactly how to build offshore businesses from scratch. If they can replicate the Australian success in Ireland, shareholders should be smiling.

The smiles are there already, with HEPS up by between 26% and 32% for the year to June 2025. Although OUTsurance trades at a substantial Price/Earnings multiple, that’s still good enough for a 12% year-to-date performance in the share price.


Spur is on the wrong end of an arbitration claim (JSE: SUR)

And it’s an oral agreement about ribs that is being debated, ironically

Two companies within the Spur group were served summons in 2019 by GPS Food Group RSA, based on an alleged oral agreement regarding the establishment of a rib processing facility. The damages claim is between R119.9 million and R167 million. If that first claim failed, there was an alternative delictual claim of R95.8 million.

The parties went to arbitration and the arbitrator made a “part award” yesterday in favour of GPS based on the first claim (the bigger one). No award was made on the second claim. Notably, the arbitrator hasn’t determined the quantum of damages.

Either way, Spur will appeal it within the next 30 days. This goes to a panel of three arbitrators and that ruling is final.


Transpaco reflects the broader SA industrial sentiment (JSE: TPC)

Almost every metric is slightly in the red

Transpaco released results for the year to June 2025. They are incredibly uninspiring, with revenue down 2.2% and HEPS down 0.9%. The dividend was down 2.1%. This isn’t the most liquid stock around, but a 13.3% year-to-date drop tells you that all isn’t well in the industrial segment of the South African economy.

The plastics division grew revenue by 0.2% at least, while the paper division fell by 4.6%. If there’s a silver lining in here somewhere, it’s probably that group operating margin was maintained at 8.6%. Under the circumstances, that’s actually quite impressive.

The SA Inc. dream really hasn’t come to fruition this year, despite all the exuberance we saw in 2024 around the GNU.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The spouse of the CEO of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) bought shares worth R675k.
    • A director of Invicta (JSE: IVT) bought shares worth R58k.
    • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) bought shares worth R8k.
  • Putprop (JSE: PPR) has guided an increase in HEPS for the year ended June 2025 of between 20.8% and 40.8%.
  • All the resolutions that would’ve been in favour of the group of institutional shareholders who demanded the extraordinary general meeting of MAS (JSE: MSP) failed to pass at the meeting. This is obviously because the Prime Kapital offer was a success in terms of getting enough votes locked in ahead of that meeting.
  • Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) has confirmed that the offer to Assura (JSE: AHR) shareholders will remain open for acceptance until 10 September 2025. Primary Health now has over 92% in Assura and they will be following the compulsory acquisition (or squeeze-out) process to take this to 100%, delisting Assura in the process.
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) has officially started trading on the JSE! It will no doubt take a while for volumes to pick up, as is usually the case with a new listing.
  • Rex Trueform (JSE: RTO) will increase its stake in Byte Orbit from 30.02% to 51.02% for R21 million. They will pay for it through the issuance of more Rex Trueform N shares, which are listed on the JSE. It may sound like a toothpaste company, but it’s actually a software and digital innovation company. This is also relevant to shareholders of African and Overseas Enterprises (JSE: AOO).
  • AYO Technology (JSE: AYO) has pushed out its general meeting from 29 August to 29 September based on a request from the PIC to have more time to consider the “merits and risks associated with holding shares in a delisted entity”.
  • Salungano (JSE: SLG) has agreed a “standstill” with its banks, which means they standstill on their legal rights provided that the company complies with the terms of its debt. Salungano has been in breach of its loan facilities since 21 June 2023. Remember, when you owe the bank a fortune, you can get them to standstill. When you just owe them for a car, you’ll be the one standing still after they take it away.
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) is suspended from trading and hopes to finalise its audit process for the 2024 financials by the end of September.

Note: Ghost Bites is my journal of each day’s news on SENS. It reflects my own opinions and analysis and should only be one part of your research process. Nothing you read here is financial advice. E&OE. Disclaimer.

Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | Cashbuild | Mahube Infrastructure | Master Drilling | Motus | Old Mutual | Redefine Properties)

Accelerate Property Fund has sold two buildings at NAV – yet the market didn’t like it (JSE: APF)

Shareholders are clearly still panicky when it comes to this stock

There are a lot of reasons to worry about Accelerate Property Fund. There are significant overhangs on the share price, not least of all the related party issues that have become problematic once more. The ongoing turnaround of Fourways Mall remains uncertain, although there are significant green shoots. The TL;DR is that this is a risky play.

The fund trades at a huge discount to net asset value (NAV) due to these issues, which tells you at least one thing for sure: selling properties at NAV can only be a good thing. In fact, it would be a fantastic outcome for shareholders if the fund could sell absolutely all its assets at NAV, settle its liabilities and pay the rest to shareholders.

Now, a sale of the full portfolio isn’t on the cards right now, but partial sales along the way should be most welcomed. Instead, the share price closed 7% lower on the news of Accelerate selling The Buzz and Waterford Centre for a total price of R215 million, which is equal to the directors’ valuation (i.e. the NAV) as at 31 March this year.

It’s an odd response from the market that demonstrates just how much confusion and panic there is around this share price. Therein lies the opportunity for speculators of course, with the caveat that this is a high-risk turnaround story.

The buyer of the two properties is Dorpstraat Capital Growth Fund, with a number of backers including Rabie Property Group (a name you may know). The Buzz and Waterford are both situated in Fourways, as per usual when it comes to Accelerate Property Fund.

There are unfortunately some hurdles that need to be overcome for the sale, including a rezoning to unlock the final R10 million of the purchase price and an unconditional Competition Commission approval to get the entire transaction done. Thankfully there are no sales commissions at play though, as the parties have clearly been negotiating directly with each other. This means that the proceeds of R215 million can be fully applied to debt reduction and overall flexibility on the Accelerate balance sheet. It’s just going to take a few months to get the cash.

The disposal yield is 9.5% based on one-year forward income and taking into account Pick n Pay’s exit from The Buzz.

Down 7% for the day and now at R0.39 per share, the share price is changing hands below the recent rights offer price of R0.40 per share. Either the investors dumping the stock are wrong, or the anchor shareholders are wrong, but someone is wrong here. Only time will tell, but my view is that a sell-off in the stock in response to a sale of properties at NAV is a sign of an irrational market.


Cashbuild managed to increase earnings this year (JSE: CSB)

But nothing is coming easy at the moment

As we saw with Italtile (JSE: ITE) earlier this week, consumer discretionary retail has been a real slog this year. It’s hardly any better in the US by the way, with the likes of Home Depot and Lowe’s reporting that consumers are more willing to do small DIY projects than large projects at the moment. The reason is the same on both sides of the pond: interest rates are stubbornly high and consumers are taking strain.

With a retail-focused model rather than a manufacturing arm like Italtile has, Cashbuild is better equipped to weather the storm. It’s hard enough trying to generate decent returns from a store footprint. Once you add on the fixed costs of manufacturing, then operating leverage really kicks in and a weak consumer environment kicks you harder.

This is why Cashbuild’s trading performance for the 52 weeks to 29 June 2025 is well ahead of Italtile, with HEPS growth of between 7% and 12%. Italtile could only manage 2% over the same period. Given the underlying business model differences, I think both companies did pretty well under the circumstances!

Cashbuild is expected to release results by 3 September.


It looks likely that Mahube Infrastructure will be leaving the JSE (JSE: MHB)

Another day, another takeout offer

Mahube Infrastructure released a cautionary announcement on Tuesday and ended the day 32% higher. This combination usually means only one thing: a takeout bid is coming.

Sure enough, the cautionary confirms that the company has been approached by a third-party offeror looking to make a cash offer for all the shares in Mahube in the form of a scheme of arrangement, which would naturally lead to the delisting of the company if the scheme is approved.

It’s very important to note that nothing is finalised or guaranteed at this point. The company also hasn’t indicated the price of the potential offer, so the market is taking a guess right now around whether there’s more upside in this thing.

The board has constituted an independent board of directors to consider the proposal. More details will be announced when they are ready. I’ll say it again: nothing is guaranteed here.


Master Drilling managed to grind out some growth in this period (JSE: MDI)

The impairment reversals may not be in HEPS, but they are important nonetheless

Master Drilling released results for the six months to June. They work hard to convince you to look at the results in US dollars rather than in rand, despite only 48% of group revenue being in hard currencies vs. emerging currencies. There’s some selected additional disclosure of rand movements (like in HEPS), but the rest is in US dollars.

Revenue was up 4.9% in US dollars for the period and HEPS was up 6.7% on the same basis, or 4.7% in rand. It’s so refreshing to be in a situation where the rand recently strengthened against the US dollar, hence the rand growth rate in HEPS is actually lower than the US dollar growth rate. There haven’t been many times in the past couple of decades when we can say that!

Importantly, the committed order book of $305.6 million is significantly higher than $271.4 million as at June 2024. This bodes well for the second half of the year and beyond.

Impairments are non-cash items and don’t affect HEPS, so you’ll rarely see me paying much attention to them. In this case though, the good news at Master Drilling is that a previously recognised impairment on the Mobile Tunnel Boring Machine has been partially reversed. Why does this matter? Well, it shows that the machinery has more of a use case than previously thought, which indicates a lower risk of obsolescence due to market factors.

Keep an eye on the capital allocation here, as cash generated from operations was $11 million and capital spend was $13.9 million. Sure, it’s only one period, but you don’t need to get the calculator out to see that this doesn’t leave any cashflow for shareholders in this particular period. It also tells you exactly why technological obsolescence is such an important point, as this is a capex-heavy business.

The market was happy with what it saw, with Master Drilling closing 6.5% higher on the day.


Motus had a better second half and enjoyed lower net finance costs (JSE: MTH)

Revenue has come out roughly flat for the year

Motus has released a trading update for the year ended June 2025. Before considering the full-year numbers, it’s worth reflecting on the interim results, where revenue was down 2% and HEPS was up 1%. The second half was better than the first half, boosted by decent numbers in the South African vehicle market. This is why for the full year, revenue moved by between -1% and +1% (i.e. flat at the midpoint) and HEPS came in between 3% and 5% higher.

The biggest boost to the numbers came from a decrease in net finance costs of between 12% and 14%. These businesses are highly sensitive to interest rates not just because of the impact on consumer demand for vehicles, but also because of the impact they have on floor finance at the dealerships.

The share price closed 2.6% higher on the day, taking the year-to-date drop to 13.9%.


Old Mutual’s adjusted HEPS moved higher – but that’s only if you exclude Zimbabwe (JSE: OMU)

The issue is the functional currency change in Zimbabwe

Old Mutual’s share price is up 13.9% year-to-date, while arch-rival Sanlam (JSE: SLM) is only up 3.3%. This outperformance all happened in the past week, driven by the market’s favourable response to Old Mutual’s earnings. I now need to remind you that over 5 years, Sanlam is up 56% while Old Mutual has managed just 22%. There’s a lot of catching up to do.

The latest trading statement from Old Mutual deals with the six months to June and it shows that things are at least headed in the right direction. Old Mutual Insure did well and financial market were favourable to the returns of the insurance group. To add to this, the prior period included some significant negative once-offs.

The Zimbabwean business has skewed the numbers, as HEPS without any adjustments has dropped by between 37% and 17% for the period due to the change in functional currency from Zimbabwe Gold to the US dollar. Adjusting for that impact shows that HEPS actually increased by between 21% and 41%.

Here’s the good news: it’s the base period that is driving that huge difference, as HEPS in interim 2024 was 133.6 cents without the adjustment and 73.5 cents with it. That’s good news, as the guidance for interim 2025 doesn’t change dramatically when you look at reported (84.2 cents to 110.9 cents) vs. adjusted (88.9 cents to 103.6 cents) numbers.

Interim results are due for release on 10 September.


Redefine Properties has upgraded the midpoint of its FY25 guidance (JSE: RDF)

The company released a pre-close update for the year ending 31 August

Redefine Properties came into this pre-close update with a share price that is up 10% year-to-date. That compares favourably to local property ETFs that are up around 7% over that period, so Redefine has outperformed the broader sector.

Redefine’s previous guidance for the year ending 31 August 2025 for distributable income per share was 50 cents to 53 cents. The company has upgraded that guidance to between 51.5 cents and 52.5 cents. Although the top-end of the range is lower, the mid-point has shifted from 51.5 cents to 52.0 cents, hence it counts as an upgrade.

I think this is the most interesting chart from the presentation, showing the sensitivity of earnings to various variables:

As you can see, the most sensitive factor is South African interest rates, followed by rental increases in Poland and then European interest rates. I don’t think this list is exhaustive, as I would’ve expected to see South African rent indexation / portfolio-wide reversions on the list. It remains useful though as a way to understand the relative impact of some of the key drivers of performance.

If we look deeper at the performance, the overall South African portfolio (which is 45% Retail, 34% Office, 20% Industrial and 1% Specialised) saw occupancy rates improve from 93.2% in August last year to 94.1% as at the end of July this year. Reversions have improved from -5.9% to -5.2%, but are clearly still negative.

You wouldn’t be off the mark to think that the office portfolio is at fault here for the overall negative situation, as reversions in that segment were -12.3% in this period. But that’s actually slightly better than -13.9% in the prior period, so the office portfolio has contributed to the year-on-year improvement. The worrying trend is in the industrial portfolio, with reversions of -0.2% vs. +5.5% in the comparable period. This is admittedly on only a small part of the overall portfolio that churns in each period, so it’s dangerous to read too much into that trend. As for the retail portfolio, reversions improved from +0.2% to +1.6%.

There’s an important nugget of information in the presentation that offers a read-through for the apparel sector, where I recently took a long position in Mr Price (JSE: MRP) as the pick of the local litter in that space (in my opinion at least):

The importance of reading widely just cannot be overstated. You can read about a property fund and learn something about clothing retail in the process!

Moving across to Poland, the eCommerce threat is becoming clearer – footfall across the EPP portfolio was down by 2% year-on-year. Turnover was up 2%, so things are still trending in the right direction, but I do think that eCommerce is a significant part of the bear case for these retail-focused property funds. As part of the fund’s diversification strategy, the portfolio in Poland also includes logistics and self-storage assets, with a solid improvement in the vacancy rate in the past year.

In terms of the balance sheet, the see-through loan-to-value (LTV) was 46.8% as at the end of May 2025, an improvement from 47.9% as at August 2024. The weighted average cost of debt fell by a significant 90 basis points to 6.6%. And as that useful sensitivity chart showed us, decreases in borrowing rates make a big difference to property funds.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A few directors of Spur (JSE: SUR) received share awards and sold the taxable portion, but one director kept the entire award worth R997k i.e. funded the tax other than through selling shares.
    • An independent non-executive director of Bytes Technology Group (JSE: BYI) bought shares worth around R600k.
  • Shareholders in Phuthuma Nathi, the B-BBEE scheme related to MultiChoice South Africa within MultiChoice Group (JSE: MCG), have voted in favour of the restructuring required to get the broader deal with Canal+ across the line. No surprise there really, as I think it’s their only realistic chance of getting decent long-term value from the business. That share price is up roughly 18% over 30 days and is still down 21% over 90 days, showing how much volatility there has been.
  • Vukile Property Fund (JSE: VKE) has put in place a building block for further growth, with an announcement that the Domestic Medium Term Note Programme amount has been increased from R5 billion to R10 billion.
  • British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI) announced that CFO Soraya Benchikh will be stepping down as CFO with effect from 26 August 2025 (i.e. immediately), with availability to support the team until the end of 2025. That does feel very sudden, as evidenced by the current Director of Digital and Information stepping into the Finance Director role on an interim basis. British American Tobacco will now need to look for a permanent successor.
  • Delta Property Fund (JSE: DLT) continues to take every opportunity that it can to sell off non-core properties. The latest example is the sale of a building in Parkmore for R19 million to Afrocentric Intellectual Property. From what I could see online, this company has nothing to do with the listed AfroCentric, just in case you were wondering. The property was previously valued at R18.1 million, so this is a rare example of a sale above book value! The fund announced that the sales of the Du Toitspan and Pine Parkade properties have also been finalised and that transfer has taken place. Slowly but surely, they are chipping away at the group debt.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding the potential disposal of certain subsidiaries. Although this has been going on for a while, there are still no guarantees of a deal happening here.
  • Conduit Capital (JSE: CND) has renewed its cautionary announcement for what feels like the gazillionth time. There’s still no clear way out of that mess, with the group’s main subsidiary placed into liquidation.

Ghost Bites (ADvTECH | Clientele | Fairvest | Harmony | Hulamin | Italtile | Momentum | Sasol)

Despite mid-teens earnings growth at ADvTECH, the share price is flat this year (JSE: ADH)

This is the great frustration for investors of an unwinding multiple

When the market loves a company, the valuation tends to get pushed to the limits. This leads to a scenario where an excellent company can be an average or even poor investment, as the thing needs to grow into its boots. With ADvTECH’s share price down 1% this year despite HEPS for the six months to June 2025 being up 15%, it’s a perfect example of this situation.

If you ever hear someone referring to an “unwinding multiple” then this is what they are talking about – earnings moving higher and the share price not following suit, leading to a decreasing earnings multiple over time as it “grows” into its valuation.

The company can’t control the share price, but they can control the underlying performance. Full credit to ADvTECH here: 10% revenue growth and an 18.4% increase in the interim dividend is excellent.

Above all else, ADvTECH is a story of the benefit of operating a premium model in a market that is struggling for growth in volumes. In this case, the “volume” is the number of kids in schools, with Curro’s (JSE: COH) huge footprint turning out to be more of a liability than an asset thanks to current birth trends. ADvTECH has a smaller base of schools that have a more upmarket focus, which means that demand remains strong relative to supply and that they can drive prices higher accordingly. In Schools South Africa for example, revenue was up 11% and operating profit increased 12%, driven by a 4% increase in enrolments on a like-for-like basis.

In Rest of Africa, ADvTECH operates a similar premium model that targets expats and wealthy locals. Revenue increased by 31% and operating profit was up 34% in that business, so the model clearly works.

As the cherry on top, the Tertiary business (the largest segment) generated revenue growth of 13% and operating profit growth of 14%. As we’ve seen at sector peer STADIO (JSE: SDO), this is a lucrative place to play.

The Resourcing business continues to be the ugly duckling in the group, with revenue down 5% and profit down 2%. As I say every single time I write about ADvTECH, it’s an odd strategic fit that the group would be better off selling. I’m pretty sure that investors are bullish on ADvTECH despite the Resourcing business, not because of it. I would love to hear any opposing views on this!


Clientèle has had a strong financial year (JSE: CLI)

And the market responded accordingly

Clientèle has released a trading statement dealing with the year ended June 2025. HEPS is expected to be up by between 39% and 59%, a fantastic outcome indeed. That suggests a range of 136.88 cents to 156.56 cents, or 146.72 cents at the midpoint. The share price closed at R13.64, suggested a P/E at the midpoint of around 9.3x.

Although the group results will be skewed by a bargain purchase gain on the acquisition of 1Life, this doesn’t affect the HEPS calculation and thus isn’t the reason for the jump in earnings. Having said that, the actual consolidation of 1Life into the numbers would’ve had an effect on the numbers, but they acquired it in a share-for-share deal and thus HEPS (which is a per-share measure) would take into account the additional shares in issue for that acquisition. In contrast, a cash-settled acquisition skews the numbers far more, as companies “buy” earnings and don’t issue additional shares for them, leading to a significant increase in HEPS that might not be reflective of the true underlying performance.

As for Clientèle, it seems as though these numbers might be a reflection of just how well the business is actually doing. We will have to wait for detailed results on 5 September to know for sure.


Fairvest’s capital raise is another sign that things are getting frothy in property (JSE: FTA | JSE: FTB)

Shares trading above NAV and accelerated bookbuilds that raise far more than initially planned? Yeah, I’ve seen this movie…

Fairvest kept SENS busy on Monday, starting off with the announcement of an accelerated bookbuild to raise R400 million. Now, if you go back a bit in their SENS announcements, you’ll find that they announced some deals a couple of months ago for R478 million. Tempting as it is to think that this capital is needed for those deals, a further read shows that those deals already closed. So, this is more a case of “give us the money and we will figure out what to do with it” – that’s one of the early warning signs of the local property sector being overvalued.

But is this an isolated example, or have we seen others? Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) did much the same in terms of raising for general acquisition purposes, but they have an incredible track record of capital allocation. I would be more worried about the more recent Hyprop (JSE: HYP) example, where the company raised R808 million through an accelerated bookbuild based on little more than a vague promise to try and acquire MAS (JSE: MSP) – and as regular readers will know, that deal never happened and now Hyprop is sitting on the capital.

Onwards to the next test of frothiness in the sector: did the market throw more at Fairvest than they asked for? The answer is a resounding yes, with the book eventually closing with commitments of R970 million – more than double the initially planned amount! It’s clear that institutions are falling over themselves to throw money at quality funds, even when the use of those proceeds isn’t clear. Hmmm.

Third test: the pricing. If the raise was at a substantial discount to the net asset value per share, then it makes sense for there to be a bunfight over the shares. There was a discount in the end, but a narrow one to say the least. They raised at R5.40 per share, which is 2.28% off the 30-day VWAP per Fairvest B share of R5.53. But here’s the wild thing thing: the net asset value per B share as at March 2025 was R4.79, which means that the share and the capital raise were both at a substantial premium to net asset value.

Buckle up. Whilst I don’t think we are quite at silly season levels yet (the 2014 – 2016 bubble saw weekly bookbuilds in the sector), we seem to be heading that way. When I start seeing more of this, I’ll be rotating my tax-free savings exposure away from local property and into something else. It’s been fun, but I have zero desire to own property funds at a premium to NAV while I get diluted regularly by discounted bookbuilds.


Harmony’s production dipped year-on-year, but the gold price drove earnings higher (JSE: HAR)

They ended up within guidance for production and costs

Harmony Gold released a trading statement for the year ended June 2025. Production came in at just over 46,000kg, which is around 5.3% lower than the prior year. Although the production number was towards the upper end of the guided range, it’s still a pity that production decreased at such a lucrative time for gold miners.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in sharply higher at R1,054,346/kg, a nasty increase of nearly 17% year-on-year. Again, they are within guided range here, but that doesn’t mean that the year-on-year trend is what shareholders want to see.

Thankfully, a 27% increase in the average gold price received was more than enough to offset these issues (and a few others, like a higher tax expense), with HEPS increasing by between 18% and 32% in rand.

The share price is up 72% year-to-date, which is obviously a lovely return, but it’s well off the performance at peers like Gold Fields (JSE: GFI – up 114%) and AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG – up 111%). For shareholders, it’s a case of what might have been.

Detailed results are scheduled for release on 28 August. You can expect the company to spend plenty of time talking about its copper strategy as a source of diversification.


Hulamin’s volatility is quite something – and poor results don’t help (JSE: HLM)

Earnings have plummeted

If you enjoy rollercoaster rides and possibly even skydiving, then Hulamin might be for you. The 52-week high is R4.28 and the 52-week low is R1.65. You can park an entire national dialogue in that gap, with the share price currently trading at R2.53.

The reason for the price being much closer to the 52-week low than the 52-week high is that results for the six months to June were somewhat awful. Despite core volumes being up 2%, they suffered a 20% drop in normalised HEPS and a 48% decrease in normalised HEPS.

There are a few strategies in place to try and address this. They’ve closed Hulamin Containers and they are looking to dispose of Hulamin Extrusions this year. Importantly, the wide canbody expansion project has been commissioned and they are targeting commercial readiness in the first quarter of 2026, with the plan being to compete with imports by offering a locally sourced alternative.

Unsurprisingly in this context, there’s no dividend. Those who are willing to take a punt on this turnaround aren’t going to be paid to wait around. Luckily, if things are going to get better, that should be visible pretty soon.

Personally, this isn’t one for me, not least of all with net debt up 16% at a time when earnings have dropped so sharply.


A resilient performance at Italtile (JSE: ITE)

For some reason, they feel very confident with the dividend

For Italtile (and other consumer discretionary product retailers) to do well, they need consumers to have spare cash and a willingness to spend it. Alas, this combination doesn’t tend to be a feature of the South African business landscape, hence Italtile had to make do with a 2% drop in system-wide turnover for the year ended June 2025.

Along with the dip in sales, the retail business saw a decrease in margins as well. This speaks directly to consumer pressure. If interest rates drop at some point, then that will help.

The margin situation is far more worrying in the manufacturing business, with an oversupply situation in South Africa that has led to damaging price competition. It’s not clear that a decrease in rates will solve that problem.

Against this backdrop, Italtile has to focus on controlling what it can, like expenses. They managed to decrease operating costs by 3%, which means that trading profit was flat. Impressively, HEPS actually came in 2% higher at 125.1 cents.

The dividend is the real star of the show though, with the ordinary dividend up 2% and the special dividend up 26%. The total dividend is thus 17% higher at 148 cents, a payout of significantly more than HEPS! Management is clearly very happy with the balance sheet and is keen to demonstrate capital discipline to investors, although they obviously need to be careful here.

The share price is down 21% year-to-date and is now on a more reasonable price/earnings multiple of 8.8x, which makes a lot more sense than the previous inflated levels it was trading at despite management consistently telling the market that things are tough out there.


Momentum really is living up to its name (JSE: MTM)

The latest trading statement shows why the share price has been strong

Momentum’s share price is up roughly 33% in the past year. For a company of this size to increase in value by a third, there needs to be a good reason. Thankfully, the latest trading statement has given a few good reasons!

Here’s the reason that really counts: normalised headline earnings per share increased by between 41% and 51% for the year ended June 2025. That’s not very different to HEPS without normalisation adjustments, which increased by between 45% and 55%.

Importantly, this also represents excellent follow-through from the interim results, where normalised headline earnings per share increased by 48%.

They say that “most business units” contributed “meaningfully” to the performance, so that’s further happy news for investors. Across the life and short-term books, there were several drivers of the positive performance. Detailed results are due for release on 17 September and it’s certainly going to be interesting to see exactly where they made their money,


Sasol’s numbers have large once-offs – but what else is new? (JSE: SOL)

The worry remains the rand oil price

The market seemed to appreciate Sasol’s results for the year ended June 2025, with the share price closing 11.7% higher on the day of release. Perhaps the exuberance was around free cash flow, which jumped by 75% to R12.6 billion. That sounds incredible, but a Transnet net cash settlement of R4.3 billion was just one of the unusual boosts to this number.

As always, Sasol’s adjustments also include huge non-cash items, in this case related to items like derivatives and environmental rehabilitation provisions.

If we look through all the noise to the core drivers of earnings, we find the rand oil price as the major concern. Sasol made it clear at the capital markets day that they are hoping for a flat performance in their refining business over the next few years, which means they need the rand oil price to play along. Alas, a stronger rand and a weaker oil price this year meant that the rand oil price fell by 15%. Combined with lower sales volumes, this led to a 9% decrease in turnover at Sasol and a decline of 14% in adjusted EBITDA.

Within that negative group performance, there are at least signs of life in the chemicals business. US ethylene margin improved and so did the chemicals basket price, leading to an uplift in adjusted EBITDA of $120 million in that business. As this is the focus area at Sasol for earnings growth, I’m sure this was part of why the market enjoyed these numbers.

But when it comes to the contribution to group earnings, the Southern Africa business is still way more important than International Chemicals. The latter contributed 15% of adjusted EBITDA in this period vs. 9% the year before. This tells us that for all the self-help initiatives underway at Sasol, they are still heavily exposed to the rand oil price.

They are doing what they can to try and make up for this issue, with a focus on cost control and a 16% decrease in capital expenditure. But as is always the case with cyclical energy companies, their fate is to a large extent determined by external forces.

And yet at the bottom of this income statement filled with noise and distractions, we find HEPS growth of 93%!

The balance sheet is stronger at least, with net debt excluding leases down 13%. The Transnet settlement and the overall cash generation of the business was useful here. There’s no interim dividend though, as Sasol won’t pay a dividend unless net debt is below $3 billion. They are currently on $3.7 billion, so shareholders have to be patient.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) sold shares worth R13.2 million.
    • The founder and CEO of Datatec (JSE: DTC) bought shares worth R1.5 million.
    • Des de Beer has bought another R87k worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE).
  • As a condition precedent to the acquisition by Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) of Blue Ridge Platinum that was announced approximately a month ago, Mantengu needed to enter into a B-BBEE deal to sell a portion of its stake in Blue Ridge to suitable empowerment parties. Mantengu has duly done so, with the counterparties including a private company (20%), an employee trust (5%) and a community trust (5%). The 30% is being sold for a nominal value.
  • As per usual, NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) is giving shareholders a choice regarding how they want to receive their dividend. A circular has been distributed to shareholders that deals with the election of either an ordinary cash dividend or a capital repayment. It will all come down to tax at the end of the day. If you are a NEPI shareholder, I strongly suggest you refer to the circular and check with your tax advisor.
  • Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC) has received approval from the SARB for the special dividend, with a payment date of 22 September.
  • The CFO of Putprop (JSE: PPR), James Smith, will be retiring at the end of this year after 18 years with the group. A successor has not been named as of yet.
  • AH-Vest (JSE: AHL) will be delisted from the JSE on 26 August. That’s more than fine, as this company should’ve been gone a long time ago – it was way too small to be listed.
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