Saturday, July 5, 2025
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The dinosaurs are dying

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The modern world is no place for a dinosaur. Sure, they gave us valuable information and insights, and because they’ve been around the block a few times, we’ve learned substantial lessons from them. They rose to prominence when the ecosystem needed them, but a bulky, lumbering entity doesn’t have what it takes to thrive in a fast-paced environment where what once worked, no longer does. And yet, the financial industry is full of them. Despite their rigid structures, slow response times, and bureaucratic decision-making processes, they’re still hanging in there. But how?

Well, people are innately more inclined to trust what is familiar, and because the dinosaurs have been around for so long, they’re coasting along on that inherited trust. They’re benefitting from the fact that nobody questions the mighty T-rex bearing all those teeth as a reminder of its status – despite its tiny arms.

However, just like the T-rex, the dinosaurs of the financial industry have some serious shortcomings. Ironically, these exist precisely because of how old they are. They’re often operating on systems that were built in what seems like the Late Cretaceous period and don’t allow for divisions of the business to easily talk to one another, making it difficult to service clients effectively. If you’ve ever had to ask to have your statements emailed rather than posted, you know what we’re talking about.

Their sights are stubbornly set on the past, and in this era where information is king and constantly evolving technology demands that we adapt or die, that tunnel vision will likely lead to another extinction-level event. They might be able to dodge the initial impact, but in the ensuing downward spiral their clients will inevitably be the first casualties. We’ve seen that it only takes one meteor – or more recently, one bat – to wipe out an entire investment portfolio. If the dominant entities don’t start exploring new ways to navigate their environment, what hope is there for those who rely on them?

Too many investment providers are simply operating as middlemen, repackaging the same tired assets and taking a fat fee, while providing little intrinsic value. With an entire industry buying into itself, there’s often limited incentive to create new opportunities. The dinosaurs seem to have lost sight of their primary purpose: creating value for their customers.

Over the last three decades, while the rest of the industry cruised on autopilot, we’ve taken a different approach.

Fedgroup has developed holistic solutions with our deep vertical integration and on-the-ground expertise, along with innovative use of multiple financial services licenses. Through effective origination and deployment of unique opportunities, along with strong due diligence and monitoring, we’ve delivered innovative products that benefit investors seeking a superior risk-adjusted return.

Being seen as a credible provider no longer hinges solely on tenure or reputation. It’s about the innovative and cohesive use of capabilities to create new solutions that adapt to a changing marketplace, addressing modern opportunities and needs.

It’s about fostering symbiotic partnerships that are markedly different to the industry norm of faceless transactions, and the results speak for themselves. Frustrated with the inflexible approach of traditional providers, CEO of Alleyroads property group, Ivan Pretorius, listed this as a key factor in securing a recent finance deal with Fedgroup, worth circa R1 billion.

Dinosaurs aren’t all bad, though. There are some gentle giants. But there is still the ever-present threat of the little guys getting crushed underfoot, whether intentionally or simply because the giants weren’t agile enough to pivot for the sake of those in their environment.

So, while they continue to lumber about contemplating their next move, we’ll be capitalising on the emerging opportunities in this new landscape, with our eyes firmly on the horizon and ensuring that our clients reap the rewards.

Keen to find out more about Fedgroup? Visit them at this link.

Investec rolls out two new structured products referencing the Japanese and European markets

Investors tend to pay a lot of attention to the US equity market but often overlook opportunities in other leading developed market indices. Two such markets, Europe and Japan, form the underpin of Investec’s latest two structured products, in autocall form, on the Nikkei 225 and the Euro Stoxx 50. In this podcast, Andri Joubert of the Investec’s Structured Products team chats to The Finance Ghost about the key features of the two autocalls with a five year-tenor:

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The first is a rand-denominated autocall that is linked to the Nikkei 225. The product has opportunities to call on each anniversary if the index growth is flat or positive at one of the call dates. It provides a return of 17% (in Rand) for each year from inception to the call date. For example, if the index growth is flat or positive at the end of year two, then the product will mature and return 34%.

The second is a US dollar-denominated autocall linked to the Euro Stoxx 50 index which comprises the 50 largest European companies. A return of 10.25% (in US dollars) is paid for each year since inception with opportunities to call at the end of year 3, 4 and 5 if the index growth is flat or positive at one of the call dates.

Both products offer capital protection of the initial investment amount, provided the index does not decrease by more than 30%. Thereafter, the investor is exposed to the market’s return.

Why the Nikkei 225?

There has been a reversal of sentiment towards the Japanese stock market in recent years and the market’s performance demonstrates the increased investor confidence. The Nikkei 225 is weighted towards the technology sector, particularly hardware and semiconductor manufacturing, which is well positioned to benefit for the global surge in artificial intelligence. The Japanese government and the Bank of Japan have implemented various economic reforms and maintained accommodative monetary policies. These include stimulus packages aimed at boosting consumer spending and corporate investment, which have bolstered market confidence and economic activity. Japanese companies have over the last few years gone through a process of transformation, with improvements in capital efficiency and corporate governance at their core.

Why the Euro Stoxx 50?

Europe has traditionally lagged the US, but recent moves by the European Central Bank to start cutting rates should provide a boost to growth, especially if inflation continues to moderate.

Globally, stock market valuations appear stretched, particularly in the U.S. For instance, we can look at the S&P 500 current Price to Earnings (“PE”) ratio of 26.1 vs the 20-year average of 18.5. The Eurozone stands out as one of the few regional markets where valuations are below long term historic value. Euro Stoxx 50 is currently trading at a PE ratio of 13.8 vs the 20-year average of 14.3. The banking and industrial sectors, which constitute a significant portion of the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, appear particularly attractive on this basis. Additionally, the rise in dividend payouts and share buy-backs by European companies are expected to provide an underpin for companies that make up the index

What else do I need to know about the two structured products?

The products are issued by Investec Bank Limited. Investors also have credit risk exposure to Bank of America for the Euro Stoxx 50 product only.

The minimum investment for the Nikkei 225 product is R100,000 and the Euro Stoxx 50 product is $6,000. Investors can invest through their stockbroking account or their financial advisor. Applications close on 8 August 2024 for both products.

For more information, visit the Investec website here.

Disclaimer available here.

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | Anglo American Platinum | Cashbuild | Kumba Iron Ore | Mpact | Mr Price | Sasol | South32 | Vukile)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:


Note: due to my illness earlier this week, this edition of Ghost Bites covers SENS announcements on Monday 22nd and Tuesday 23rd July.

Also, congratulations to Forvis Mazars, Ghost Wrap brand partner, for being appointed as the auditors of eMedia Holdings!


Anglo American sells two royalty assets (JSE: AGL)

This raises $150 million in up-front cash

In mining, one of the ways to raise funding is to sell a stream of royalties related to an underlying commodity. Anglo American has done exactly that, selling two royalties to Taurus Funds Management for $150 million up-front and $45 million in deferred payments.

The royalties in question are an iron ore royalty owned by De Beers related to the Onslow Iron project in Australia. This raises cash for De Beers without having to do a deal related to diamonds. The other royalty is a gold and copper royalty related to a project in Chile.

The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter.


The PGM price ruined the party for Anglo American Platinum (JSE: AMS)

An increase in production can’t save a miner when prices drop this much

For the first six months of the financial year, Anglo American Platinum achieved refined production up 5% and sales volumes up 9% as they dug into the inventory. Sadly, with the PGM basket price down 24%, there wasn’t much the company could do to prevent a drop in profits.

The fact that EBITDA only fell by 8% despite a 19% decrease in revenue is pretty impressive, although things deteriorated further down the income statement with HEPS down 18%. The dividend per share fell by 19% to R9.75.

If there is finally some relief for PGM prices, Anglo American Platinum has done a lot of hard work to prepare itself to capture the upswing.


Cashbuild seems to have turned a corner in South Africa (JSE: CSB)

Hopefully, the direction of travel from here is up

Cashbuild has released its full year sales numbers, which include a breakdown by quarter as well. As this is a 53-week period, it’s important to look at the 52-week vs. 52-week numbers for proper comparability.

On that basis, group existing store volumes were up 2%. Total revenue from existing stores increased 3%, so this suggests that roughly 1% came from pricing increases.

Cashbuild South Africa grew existing store revenue by 4% in the fourth quarter. That’s the number I would focus on, as this segment is 82% of group sales and the momentum through the year has been promising. Even P&L Hardware, 8% of group revenue and a segment that really struggled in the first half of the year, managed to post revenue growth of 3% for the fourth quarter from existing stores.

Is the bottom in? It could well be, especially if the positive sentiment around the GNU flows into actual consumer discretionary spending.


Kumba Iron Ore released interim results (JSE: KIO)

Both HEPS and the interim dividend have dropped sharply

Cyclical businesses are not good choices for those who have weak stomachs. Kumba Iron Ore isn’t just dealing with global iron ore demand and related prices, but also the ongoing pain of having to hold itself back due to constraints at Transnet.

For the six months to June, the group operated at an EBITDA margin of 44% and return on capital employed of 48%. Although this period wasn’t as strong as the comparable period, it’s still a very profitable business.

Speaking of profits, HEPS fell by 26% to R22.27 and the interim dividend dropped by 17% to R18.77.


Mpact’s earnings took a significant knock (JSE: MPT)

The paper business has had a tough time

Mpact has released a trading statement for the six months to June. The paper segment is where the troubles lie, with subdued demand and lower selling prices than in the prior year, leading to lower production volumes and an under-recovery of overheads. The plastics business increased revenue across all three divisions, but operating profit is expected to be in line with the prior year.

On a group basis, revenue fell 1% (plastics up 11% and paper down 3%) and EBITDA fell by 8%. Operating profit is down 20%. With an increase in net finance costs as well, HEPS is expected to be down by between 33.8% and 28.6% for total operations.

For continuing operations, which excludes Versapak, HEPS fell by between 37.8% and 32.5%.


Mr Price went sideways if you exclude acquisitions (JSE: MRP)

You have to be so careful in interpreting these numbers

When a company has been highly acquisitive, as has been the case at Mr Price, it’s so important to look at sales growth excluding acquisitions. This tells you how the core business is doing. In the quarter ended June 2024, Mr Price managed comparable store sales of just 0.1%.

Group retail sales, on the other hand, were up 4.6%. This is where the impact of acquisitions comes in. The group highlights that the two-year CAGR is 12.9%, so they want the market to remember that there was a strong base effect. They also point out that they gained market share for 11 consecutive months, with the comparable market down 0.2%. On that basis, they’ve technically gained market share even without the acquisitions.

Things seem to have improved significantly in June after a terribly lackluster April and May, with retail sales up 12.7% vs. market growth of 10.3%. Online sales increased 3.8% for the period and accelerated to double digit levels in June.

Cash sales were up 5.2%, while credit sales were up 0.3%.

The June acceleration is the highlight here, which is exactly why Mr Price pointed it out.


Sasol has released full-year production and sales metrics (JSE: SOL)

Overall, they “consistently met market guidance” for the year

Sasol has released its detailed production and sales report. If you want to get to grips with the overall group, I suggest you check it out here (find it under “quarterly business reporting”).

The high level summary is that they managed to meet market guidance, with improvement in key operational areas. That’s just as well, as product prices were down 15% for the full year. At least there was positive momentum in the second half, with the sales basket price up 9%.

In the Chemicals Africa business, it’s worth noting that Q4 prices were in line with Q3 prices. Perhaps the bottom is in for the basket related to that business. In Chemicals America, the basket price was up 2% in Q4 vs. Q3, giving another sliver of hope. It’s even better in Chemicals Eurasia, with prices up 6% in Q4 vs. Q3.


South32 should meet FY24 operating unit cost guidance (JSE: S32)

This quarterly report caps off the 2024 financial year

South32 released a quarterly report that brings to a close the 2024 financial year. As they finalise the numbers, it looks like they will meet operating unit cost guidance.

In copper, they achieved 98% of production guidance. Aluminium production was flat year-on-year, as were alumina and nickel. Zinc equivalent production increased by 10%. Illawarra Metallurgical Coal saw production fall 24% in line with guidance as part of the planned longwall moves. South African manganese achieved record production, while Australia Manganese had a much more difficult year thanks to Tropical Cyclone Megan.

The sale of Illawarra is expected to be completed later this quarter.

FY25 production guidance has been revised lower for alumina, Sierra Gorda payable copper equivalent and Cannington payable zinc equivalent.

They had a strong finish to the year from a working capital perspective, unlocking $180 million in working capital in the second half vs. absorbing $276 million in the first half.

In a separate announcement, South32 noted that the environmental conditions put forward by the Australian regulators for the Worsley Mine Development Project are so onerous that they impact the long-term viability of the project. South32 plans to lodge an appeal accordingly. Based on the uncertainty, an impairment of $554 million pre-tax has been raised.


There’s a potential deal in Spain for Vukile (JSE: VKE)

An offer is in play for Lar España

Vukile holds 28.7% of Lar España through Castellana, the group’s Spanish investment vehicle. A real estate investment consortium has put forward a cash offer for the shares of Lar España at EUR8.10 per share, reduced by any distributions paid by Lar España during the offer period.

Vukile has not had any discussions with the consortium regarding the potential transaction, so at this point there’s no indication of whether the terms will be appealing to Vukile.

Before the offer, Lar España was trading at just below EUR7.00 per share.

Separately, Global Credit Ratings (GCR) put Vukile’s rating on a positive outlook, which is encouraging for the cost of debt going forward.


Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • The former CEO of The Foschini Group (JSE: TFG) sold shares in the company worth over R10 million as part of a “portfolio rebalancing” – I’m quite sure that the share price rally of over 42% in the past 90 days helped with the timing of that rebalancing.
    • The CFO of Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) bought shares in the company worth R627k.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Insimbi (JSE: ISB) continues to sell shares, this time to the value of R36.5k.
  • Hammerson (JSE: HMN) announced the disposal of its entire stake in Value Retail to Silver Bidco for an enterprise value of £1.5 billion. This generates cash proceeds of £600 million. This recycles 42% of Hammerson’s portfolio value into cash, having achieved a 10-year internal rate of return (IRR) on the asset of 13%. The disposal was at a 24% discount to the gross asset value though, which is another example of why listed property funds often trade at a discount. This takes the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio down to 23%. Following the disposal, Hammerson intends to return up to £140 million to shareholders through a share buyback, representing 10% of its market capitalisation. They also plan to increase the payout ratio to 80% – 85% of adjusted earnings vs. the dreary current level of 60% – 70%.
  • Momentum Group (JSE: MTM) hosted an investor conference and made all the detailed presentations available to the public. If you want to really dig in, you’ll find it all here.
  • Coronation’s (JSE: CML) assets under management came in at R632 billion as at the end of June. Irritatingly, the company never discloses comparatives, forcing us to go digging. AUM was R631 million as at the end of March, so they went sideways this quarter.
  • Reinet (JSE: RNI) announced that the net asset value at June 2024 reflects 1.6% growth vs. March 2024. They received dividends of €34 million from British American Tobacco and €85 million from Pension Insurance Group. They funded commitments of €71 million for the quarter and didn’t make any significant new commitments.
  • Lighthouse (JSE: LTE) has agreed to sell Planet Koper, a mall in Slovenia, for €68.75 million. €22.2 million of this amount will be used to settle debt related to the property. This is part of Lighthouse’s strategy to focus on Iberia, facilitated by the recycling of capital elsewhere.
  • The Datatec (JSE: DTC) scrip distribution alternative delivered a pretty even result across the cash and share election. A cash dividend of R164 million was paid and shares worth R135 million were issued in lieu of cash.
  • Mustek (JSE: MST) closed 16.9% higher on Tuesday on the news of Peresec increasing its stake in the company to 23.09%. Is there potentially a take-out attempt coming down the line?
  • Texton (JSE: TEX) is investing further in the US, but at least this time directly into a property rather than a large fund. This is an industrial property being acquired on a net initial yield of 7.8%. The structure is a partnership with WS Industrial GP (known as Canvas), whereby Texton will commit 90% of the capital as limited partner and Canvas will contribute 10% as the general partner. This is a major commitment, with an initial contribution of $2.75 million and a subsequent capital commitment of $430k. The total commitment for Texton in rands is over R58 million.
  • Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) released a quarterly activities report. They’ve had a busy time, focusing on the development of the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine, with the goal of achieving an updated Bankable Feasibility Study by September 2024. Separately, the company reminded the market that the share purchase plan closed at 10am South African time on 23 July. We will now wait to see the results. For a reminder of how Utshalo is helping companies like Orion Minerals access the South African retail investor base, listen to this podcast.
  • Kore Potash (JSE: KP2) has released the circular dealing with the approvals required to issue new share to David Hathorn as part of a broader capital raise. Hathon is the chairman of the company.

Ghost Wrap #73 (Richemont | AVI | Karooooo | Prosus)

Listen to the show here:


The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Forvis Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Forvis Mazars website for more information.

This episode covers:

  • Richemont’s sales disappointment and broader luxury pressures in China.
  • AVI’s ability to turn modest revenue growth into great profit growth.
  • Karooooo living up to its growth promises after a tough period in Asia.
  • Prosus giving the CEO a “moonshot” remuneration package.

Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | Ascendis | Capital & Regional | Karooooo | Prosus | Reinet)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:


Accelerate signs off on an awful period (JSE: APF)

Even funds from operations per share went negative in FY24

Accelerate Property Fund has been a bit of a horror movie for the past two financial years. Total negative fair value adjustments of -R1.14 billion have been recognised over two years, with the net asset value (NAV) per share now down to R3.65, a drop of 11.6% year-on-year.

Perhaps most worryingly, SA REIT funds from operations per share went negative in this period, coming in at -R0.72 per share in FY24 after being R10.72 per share in the comparable period. Vacancies are up from 18.3% to 21.1% and this is despite disposals during the year that helped reduce vacancies. The SA REIT loan-to-value (LTV) is up from 48.2% to 50.2%, so it really is a dangerous situation.

Although RMB and Sanlam agreed to extend their respective debt facilities, the reality is that this comes at a cost because Accelerate’s numbers are so bad. The weighted average cost of funding has increased from 10.45% to 11.48%.

Even with the R200 million rights offer to reduce debt that was concluded after year-end, they aren’t out the woods yet. They are planning another R100 million during the 2025 financial year.

The share price at R0.50 vs. the NAV at R3.65 tells you that the market is pricing this thing for near-disaster. It’s not hard to see why based on the numbers. Hopefully, some GNU-inspired improvement in sentiment will filter through into the portfolio – and especially Fourways Mall.


The Ascendis deal is dead (JSE: ASC)

It’s going to be very interesting to see what the share price does now

After the extensive legal wrangling around the transaction, with the latest news being the High Court setting aside the TRP ruling for lack of procedural fairness (specifically towards Theunis De Bruyn and Calibre Investment Holdings), the deal for Ascendis in its current form is dead.

The member of the consortium that underwrote the bank guarantee elected not to renew it, which means the money is no longer available and hence the deal will lapse. This is a very good reminder that a deal is never a deal until the money is in the bank. This is exactly why fulfilment dates for conditions exist.

There are obviously some interesting legal questions now, like whether the TRP needs to continue its process when there isn’t an offer anymore. There’s also the small matter of the Ascendis share price, which traded around the 60 cents mark before this offer came to light.

It fell 10.1% on Friday to 71 cents, so the drop back towards those levels has already started.


Yet more activity around Capital & Regional (JSE: CRP)

This REIT seems to be hot property, but will Growthpoint be willing to sell?

Capital & Regional is a high quality REIT with a portfolio focused on the UK. Growthpoint (JSE: GRT) has a controlling stake in the REIT, so any attempt to acquire control of Capital & Regional would require Growthpoint to agree to sell. This is why NewRiver REIT is currently in negotiations with Growthpoint around what that price would be.

If there is an offer made to Growthpoint, it would trigger a mandatory offer to all other shareholders, so they would be able to tag along with Growthpoint for the ride.

Competitive pressure among buyers is always the ideal outcome for sellers and this seems to be the case here, with Praxis Group (a UK shopping centre owner) expressing interest in making a cash offer for all the shares in Capital & Regional. The difference here is that the expression of interest was sent to the board of Capital & Regional, so now that board must consider the takeover regulations in the process of supplying due diligence information to Praxis to evaluate a possible offer.

At this stage, Praxis has not provided Capital & Regional with the potential terms or price.

It’s still entirely possible that despite all this buyer interest, no deal may take place. Proceed with caution.


Karooooo is on a rampage this year (JSE: KRO)

After going sideways for a while, things are firmly on the right track again

Karooooo is the owner of Cartrack, so the group enjoys strong recurring revenue and usually quite good cash conversion, although it’s worth highlighting that the telematics devices in the vehicles are a significant investment in working capital.

The story of the latest quarter is certainly one of growth, with Cartrack subscribers up 17%. The rate of growth is also much higher than a year ago, with 75,910 net subscriber additions this quarter vs. 40,375 a year ago.

Subscription revenue is up 15%, so revenue per subscriber has dipped a bit. Still, that’s a great mid-teens growth rate.

The profitability story is the real highlight, with operating profit up 34% as both gross profit margin and operating profit margin expanded. This led to record operating profit of R287 million at a margin of 29%.

Part of this is the discipline around the activities outside of Cartrack. Karooooo thankfully gave up on Carzuka, a failed attempt to enter the used car market. Karooooo Logistics is also a positive contributor to profitability, with a solid uptick in operating profit from R5 million a year ago to R13 million in this quarter.

Guidance for FY25 is unchanged at this stage, with expected earnings per share of between R27.50 and R31.00.

As mentioned earlier, the working capital cycle of Karooooo can lead to some distortions in free cash flow conversion. In this quarter, despite the strong growth in profitability, free cash flow was only R83 million vs. R158 million in the comparable quarter. This is after adjusting for a reclassification of fixed deposits, which is the right approach.


Prosus gives the CEO a “moonshot” incentive (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)

I’m thoroughly enjoying the new approach at Prosus

Prosus seems to have learnt some excellent lessons after the painful experience of the previous management team. I’ve made it no secret that I really like what I’m seeing from new CEO Fabricio Bloisi. He’s a proper entrepreneur, not a corporate animal who knows how to survive long enough to bank the big bucks.

Speaking of the big bucks, Prosus is incentivising him like an entrepreneur as well. They call it a “moonshot” package and I love the concept. We should see more of this. In addition to the “normal” share awards, there’s the potential for him to earn $70 million in shares (yes, around R1.3 billion) if two conditions are met simultaneously by 2028.

The first is that the market cap of Prosus and Naspers combined must be doubled or better from 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2028 and maintained for at least one year after that. The second is that the total shareholder return must beat the 50th percentile of the defined peer group between 1 July 2024 and 30 June 2028.

These are tough conditions to meet, especially as Bloisi could be really unlucky with the market cycle in 2028 and 2029. Either way, the thought process alone is excellent. I have no problem whatsoever with corporate executives becoming billionaires, provided they act like entrepreneurs rather than corporate caretakers.


Reinet fund’s NAV has ticked higher (JSE: RNI)

This is always the pre-cursor to the holding company releasing its NAV

Reinet Fund’s NAV is a substantial element of the balance sheet of Reinet Investments, the listed company. The way Reinet reports is that the fund NAV is released first, followed by the listed company NAV. The direction of travel for the fund NAV is a strong clue for where the listed company NAV has gone.

Between March and June 2024, the NAV for the fund increased by 1.6%. That isn’t a rocketship by any means, but remember that this is a move for the quarter (so you could technically annualise it by multiplying by four) and this return is in euros. Reinet is designed to be a stay-rich offshore exposure, rather than a growth asset.

The major underlying exposures are Pension Insurance Corporation and British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI).


Little Bites:

  • Netcare (JSE: NTC) has been very busy with share buybacks, having repurchased 6.5% of ordinary shares in issue since 2 February 2024.
  • Shareholders in Grindrod Shipping (JSE: GSH) will receive their payments on 21 August and the company will delist from the JSE on 30 August.
  • Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN) announced that the capital reduction has now become effective. This is a technical process that addressed certain issues related to previous and future dividends.
  • EOH (JSE: EOH) has announced Ashona Kooblall as the new CFO of EOH, replacing Marialet Greeff who only served as CFO for a few months, having been with EOH since 2019 in various finance roles. Kooblall is an internal appointment, with her latest role having been CFO of iOCO, EOH’s largest operating division. Hopefully Kooblall will stick around for a long time as well as a good time.
  • The listing of African Dawn Capital (JSE: ADW) has been suspended as financials for the year ended February 2024 were not published in time. The company expects to publish financials by 31 July and the integrated annual report by 30 August.

Cancel culture: new methods, same principles

In an age where opinions often outweigh reason and public sentiment can shift in an instant, being a polarising figure can have severe consequences, like a bullet whizzing past your ear. But every day on social media, merely having an unpopular opinion can lead to being cancelled. The execution may vary but the underlying principle is the same.

There’s a history magazine that I’ve grown quite fond of in the last year called Lapham’s Quarterly. The fact that this brilliantly written and well-researched publication is currently on a printing hiatus is somewhat of a sad insight into the general state of the print media industry, but fortunately for us all, they’re still publishing articles online. Perhaps one of my favourite parts of Lapham’s Quarterly is a column called Déjà Vu. This is where modern day news headlines are juxtaposed with similar stories from history, creating the eerie yet amusing sensation that history is continuously repeating itself.

If this sounds like the kind of thing you’d like to explore, you can access the Déjà Vu section of Lapham’s Quarterly here.

One could argue that reading these kinds of modern/historical juxtapositions has trained my brain to be able to spot and appreciate similar occurrences in daily life. With that context now put into place, just imagine my delight (at the composition, not the event) when I saw this photo all over the recent news cycle –

Image credit Evan Vucci/Associated Press

and immediately thought of this –

Liberty Leading the People, Eugène Delacroix, 1830

Before I go further, I should make it clear that my delight did not stem from the fact that someone had tried to assassinate Donald Trump. While I won’t make my personal stance on politics known in this article, I can assure you that I don’t take joy from reading about attempted murder, regardless of who the victim may be. I also won’t be delving into disputes about whether or not the attempted assassination was staged. For the purposes of this article, let’s move forward under the assumption that the events captured were real.

The delight I’m describing came from that pattern-recognising, history-repeating-itself sensation that keeps me going back to the Lapham’s Quarterly blog.

The similarity between the two images is what appealed to me initially – the double raised fists, the surreal blue backdrop of sky, the looks of determination and the flag waving above all. But then I went down another rabbit hole, wondering if there was as much contextual similarity between the images as the visuals suggested. The Delacroix painting, widely believed to be his magnum opus, depicts an allegory of the July Revolution of 1830 (note – not the French Revolution, which happened a few decades earlier) which toppled the French King Charles X. The woman in the centre of the picture is not a real woman, but rather the ideal of Liberty, striding ahead to lead the people of France through revolution and into the future.

The figure at the centre of the other image is a flesh-and-blood human being, although with memorable statements like “Make America Great Again” and “Never Surrender”, he may be on his way to becoming somewhat of an allegory himself.

1830/2024

Drawing parallels between the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the less-than-graceful exit of Charles X during the French Revolution of 1830 requires that we consider the themes of political upheaval and the extremes to which political conflict can escalate. 

Is history repeating itself verbatim? Not exactly. Nevertheless, there are some key points of comparison worth noting as we consider major events nearly 200 years apart:

Political tension and unrest

1830: This revolution occurred due to widespread dissatisfaction with the monarchy of King Charles X, who was seen as failing to address the needs of the people and being too conservative.

2024: The attempt on Trump’s life reflects deep political divisions and unrest in the US. While the situation is different in scale and context, it highlights extreme reactions driven by political polarisation and dissatisfaction.

Challenges to authority:

1830: The revolutionaries aimed to challenge and replace the existing authority, reflecting a push against perceived tyranny and corruption.

2024: An assassination attempt is an extreme form of challenging authority, reflecting intense opposition and frustration with the current political leadership.

Public sentiment and radical actions:

1830: The public sentiment was driven by radical changes and dissatisfaction with the ruling elite. The revolution was marked by significant public demonstrations and clashes.

2024: The attempt on Trump’s life, while an isolated event, reflects the heightened level of radical sentiment and extreme actions taken by some individuals or groups in response to political circumstances.

Impact on political landscape:

1830: The revolution led to a shift in the French monarchy and a temporary change in the political landscape, shaping France’s future political direction.

2024: The attempt (and no doubt that rousing photograph) led to a brief spike in popularity for Trump, but as of today he is back to trailing Biden.

Cancel culture, or assassination-lite?

Over the past few years, cancel culture has really become a powerful social force. This is when individuals or entities are publicly shamed and ostracised for actions or statements that society finds unacceptable. This modern form of social censure has some striking similarities to the radical actions and public sentiment seen during the French Revolution of 1830 and the recent political upheavals in the US.

Think about J.K. Rowling, the famous author of the Harry Potter series. She faced massive backlash and boycotts after making comments about transgender issues, a hill that she is prepared to die on – probably figuratively. Then there’s Gina Carano, who was fired from her role in “The Mandalorian” after posting controversial opinions on social media. These examples show how people today can be “cancelled” by society and their employers who are scared of what society might do, leading to serious professional and personal fallout.

Now, while an assassination attempt is a violent and extreme act, both it and cancel culture are ways people try to control and enforce societal norms. The attempt on Trump’s life was an extreme reaction to political dissatisfaction, and cancel culture can be seen as an extreme reaction to perceived social or moral missteps. And of course, defining those missteps is a matter of where the power lies.

So, is cancel culture like a metaphorical assassination? In some ways, yes. Both involve a form of public judgement and punishment. Cancel culture just deals with social and professional consequences rather than physical violence. It’s a way society regulates behaviour, leading to quick shifts in public perception and actions.

Whether it’s the violent upheavals of the past or the social shaming of today, the patterns of challenging authority, expressing dissatisfaction, and pushing for ideological conformity persist through history. The context and methods may differ, but the underlying human impulses remain surprisingly similar.

We’ve just moved from guillotines to guns and public battles on X.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | Anglo American Platinum | Brait | Capital & Regional | Kumba Iron Ore | Orion Minerals | RMB Holdings)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:


Copper remains the highlight at Anglo American (JSE: AGL)

As for diamonds, things aren’t so sparkly

As we know from the approach that BHP took to sniffing around Anglo American for a potential deal, the jewel in the crown at Anglo is copper. The rest ranges from reasonable to poor.

Starting with copper, production for the six months is 2% higher than in the comparable period last year. Although the second quarter saw a drop of 6%, Anglo believes that copper production is well on track for the full year plan.

The diamonds are a major concern at the moment, with De Beers attributing the pressure to subdued Chinese demand. The lab-grown diamond threat remains the elephant in the room and I continue to believe that there has been a structural decline in diamond demand.

On the iron ore side, Minas-Rio in Brazil achieved record second quarter production. This is just as well, because Kumba had to decrease production to align with what Transnet is capable of doing, as you’ll read elsewhere in this edition of Ghost Bites.

You’ll also read about Anglo American Platinum below, which is the hot potato that BHP didn’t want to buy and Anglo American doesn’t want to keep. PGM prices are a disaster and a decent production outcome at Anglo American Platinum isn’t enough to offset it.

As a final comment (and these Anglo updates are so huge that it’s quite tricky to figure out what to focus on), nickel production was flat. I reference this as BHP has just suspended Western Australia Nickel because of the oversupply situation in the nickel market.

From the outside looking in, it feels like Anglo just isn’t as sharp as it needs to be. With several parts of the business now facing difficult circumstances, they need to move forward with their promises to shareholders about unlocking value.


Anglo American Platinum flags a big drop in HEPS (JSE: AMS)

There’s not much they could do with PGM prices dropping to this extent`

Anglo American Platinum released a production report for the quarter ended June as well as a trading statement for the six months to June. Let’s start with the latter, as profits are what really count.

Sadly, HEPS will drop by between 15% and 25% for the period, with the PGM basket price down 24%. Within the basket, palladium was down 34% and rhodium took major strain, down 49%. Against that backdrop, it’s pretty impressive that the company managed to keep the drop in HEPS to only 15% – 25%. This was achieved by a 9% increase in PGM sales volumes, as well as cost savings achieved in the business.

In the production update, they note that guidance for the full year is unchanged in terms of production and all-in sustaining cost, which is expected to be below $1,050 per 3E ounce. It would do absolute wonders for this sector for PGM prices to move higher.

Another point from the production update worth highlighting is that sales volumes were up 14% in the second quarter, driven by a draw-down of finished goods in addition to higher production. In other words, the increase in PGM sales volumes can’t continue at this pace forever, as they dug into work-in-progress inventory to make this happen.


Brait is ready for the rights offer (JSE: BAT)

The offer is priced at a 25% discount to the 5-day average before the original announcement

Brait needs to raise R1.5 billion in equity. Christo Wiese, acting through Titan, is only too happy to pick up shares at this price. He is underwriting the full raise, plus he’s committed to take up the full R430 million in rights attributable to the existing shareholding.

I can’t see how this doesn’t end with a mandatory offer by Titan to shareholders of Brait, as the underwriting will most likely take the stake above the 35% threshold. This is because the new shares being issued will represent 65.8% of the enlarged share capital, so this really is a very large raise.

Other shareholders do have a chance to pick up more than their allocated rights if they so desire, with the ability to apply for excess applications. I remain surprised to see this, as Brait could’ve easily structured this rights offer to ensure that the maximum number of shares land in Titan’s hands.

The price is R0.59 per rights offer share, representing a 25% discount to the 5-day average before the original recapitalisation announcement on 3 June. The current share price is R0.97.


There might still be a deal for Capital & Regional (JSE: CRP)

The PUSU deadline has been extended once more`

Under UK takeover law, there’s a colourful concept known as PUSU, which stands for put up or shut up. I’m not joking. That really is the official term. It reminds me of my dad and his perennial favourite: sh*t or get off the pot.

Anyway, moving on, NewRiver REIT has been having discussions with Growthpoint (JSE: GRT) as the controlling shareholder of Capital & Regional about a potential transaction to acquire the shares. This would naturally end up as an offer for all the shares in Capital & Regional, but there’s not much point announcing a deal that Growthpoint wouldn’t accept anyway, so that’s where the negotiations are currently taking place.

NewRiver had until 18 July to either make a firm offer or confirm that it won’t be making the offer. This is the PUSU concept. In some cases, the UK takeover authorities agree to an extension to the deadline. The deadline has now been extended to 15 August to enable negotiations to continue.

For such a harsh sounding concept, it sure does have flexible dates.


Kumba’s production has moved lower thanks to Transnet (JSE: KIO)

It remains highly irritating that the private sector must right-size itself to fit Transnet

In and amongst all the GNU-phoria, it’s good to be reminded of the problems we need to solve in this country. A good example is Kumba Iron Ore, where production for the six months to June fell by 2% to avoid a build-up of stock that Transnet can’t rail to the port. At least the Transnet performance seemed to be in line with expectations, as ore railed to port also decreased by 2%. In other words, the company is having to deliberately hold itself back because Transnet cannot match the demand for its rail services.

Kumba also took advantage of a weaker period of demand to undertake a “pro-active mini-shut” and port equipment repairs in April. Production and sales guidance has been maintained for the full year, despite sales dropping by 5% in this period because of the combination of lower production and repairs.

With production down 2% and sales down 5%, there was a build up in finished stock to 8.2Mt from 7.8Mt at the end of December 2023, with 0.6Mt at Saldanha Bay Port and 0.2Mt loaded on a vessel but not yet sold.

The capital expenditure guidance is also unchanged at R8 billion to R9 billion for the full year.

Iron ore prices are a concern thanks to weak demand in China and Europe, with the Platts IODEX 62% Fe CFR benchmark iron ore price falling by 26% since the start of the year.

Right near the bottom of the update, Kumba notes that HEPS will be down by between 24% and 29%. This is due to the drop in benchmark prices and and decrease in sales volumes.


Orion Minerals raised most of what it wanted from sophisticated investors (JSE: ORN)

The share purchase plan with retail investors is still underway

Orion Minerals wanted to raise around A$7.7 million from institutions and sophisticated investors. They are also in the process of trying to raise up to A$5 million from existing shareholders under the share purchase plan, which makes space for retail investors to get involved. For more on that raise, refer to this podcast with Paul Miller of Utshalo, where he explains how they are working with Orion Minerals and why this is important.

Orion has announced that A$7.2 million has been raised from the institutions and sophisticated investors, so they raised most of what they were looking for but not the full amount. There’s no more coming from this source at least, so it will have to do.

What will be especially interesting to see is how close they get to the A$5 million under the share purchase plan. It sounds like an ambitious number to me, but junior miners like Orion tend to aim for the stars. Pun intended.


RMB Holdings declares a special dividend (JSE: RMH)

The proceeds from the disposal by Atterbury of 20% in Mall of Africa have flowed up

When the news first broke of Attacq’s (JSE: ATT) acquisition of 20% in Mall of Africa from Atterbury, RMB Holdings was surprisingly silent about the deal. Perhaps they didn’t want to create an expectation of a special dividend, as the relationship with Atterbury hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing. RMB Holdings can’t distribute the cash to its shareholders until Atterbury declared a dividend up to RMB Holdings.

The cash does seem to have flowed up, so the happy news for RMB Holdings shareholders is that the company has declared a special dividend of 3.75 cents per share. The share price is currently R0.40.


Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R33.5k and another director bought shares worth R15.5k.
    • Michiel Le Roux has refinanced a hedge transaction over R194 million worth of shares in Capitec (JSE: CPI), with a put strike price of R2,424.11 and a call strike price of R4,437.19.
  • Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) announced the appointment of experience investment banker Clive Roberts as chairman of the company.
  • Datatec (JSE: DTC) shareholders who elect the scrip dividend alternative (i.e. wish to receive shares instead of cash) will receive 3.56718 Datatec shares for every 100 shares held.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Exchange-Listed Companies

This is not the first time the Bell family (IAB) have offered to buy out minorities of Bell Equipment. In October 2021, the offer to acquire the remaining 29.45% interest in the company was priced at R10 per share. The offer price was found to be not fair nor reasonable and the buyout failed. This week IAB offered minorities R53 per share, representing an 82% premium to the 30-day VWAP. Shareholders holding just 15.05% are eligible to participate in the offer with IAB and shareholders related to the founding family holding 70.13% and 14.82% respectively. If successful the R762,52 million deal will see the delisting of Bell Equipment almost three decades after its JSE debut.

Sasfin has been in the news recently for all the wrong reasons. In December 2023 SARS filed a R4,8 billion damages claim against Sasfin Bank following the discovery of an unlawful scheme run by former foreign exchange clients, in collusion with former bank employees, operating a syndicate to facilitate the expatriation of money out of South Africa. This week Sasfin’s major shareholders, Women Investment Portfolio (25.2%) via its subsidiary Wipfin Investments, and Unitas, the investment vehicle of the Sassoon family (47.9%) offered minorities holding 10% of the company an out, at R30 per share – a 66% premium to its 30-day VWAP. The remaining minorities holding c.17% of the company will, following the delisting of Sasfin, be invested in an unlisted vehicle. The offer, to be made by Sasfin Wealth, involves a restructure in its shareholding with Wipfin and Unitas subscribing for an 8.8% shareholding in Sasfin Wealth for a subscription price of R53,57 million each. These funds received will enable Sasfin Wealth to make the offer to minorities. Sasfin Wealth management will acquire an effective 15% stake in its enlarged issued share capital funded mainly by a vendor finance scheme.

Altron has released details of a new proposed B-BBEE ownership transaction with the launch of a sustainable ICT skills focused education trust. The Trust, to be called Ascent, will obtain an effective 20% stake in Altron TMT SA using a sustainable funding structure involving preference shares. Initially Altron will provide R5 million in support to the Trust in FY25 to assist it in meeting its stated objective. The transaction aims to enhance the current employee value proposition by providing funding to qualifying employees’ relatives and other stakeholders within the Alton ecosystem by giving them access to ICT related education opportunities and at the same time address the increasing scarcity of ICT skills in South Africa. Beneficiary eligibility will be determined with reference to a household income of less than R600,000 per annum.

The Riskowitz Value Fund (RVF) will acquire a 1.3% stake in Trustco Resources (Trustco) which houses the group’s mining interests in Namibia, Mauritius and Sierra Leone. RVF will pay US$4,55 million which will be used by Trustco Resources to upgrade mine infrastructure, plant and equipment in Namibia and Sierra Leone, accelerate development of its mining operations and transition into commercial production. The deal is a related party transaction requiring a fairness opinion.

Following market speculation, Burstone advised shareholders that the company had entered into exclusive negotiations regarding the potential formation of a strategic partnership with funds advised by affiliates of Blackstone Europe. In terms of the partnership, Burstone will dispose of a majority of its stake in its Pan-European Logistics portfolio to Blackstone. The company cautioned that there was no certainty that the transaction would be concluded.

In November 2023, Sappi announced it would reduce production capacity for graphic paper in Europe, initiating a consultation process to close the Sappi Lanaken mill in Belgium. Following the successful closure of the mill, Sappi has disposed of Sappi Lanaken including all its assets for €50 million to UTB Waalwijk, a Dutch company specialising in industrial property conversions.

Spear REIT has disposed of various sectional title retail units and the exclusive use area parking bays in terms of the Upper East Side scheme (announced in 2022), the properties of which are located in Woodstock, Cape Town. The disposal consideration to be paid by Upper East Side Hotel is R11,8 million.

NewRiver REIT plc which plans to make a formal offer for Capital & Regional has requested and received consent to further extend the deadline on which it is required to make a firm intention offer. Growthpoint, which owns a 68% stake in Capital & Regional, previously requested an extension to 18 July 2024. The new deadline is 15 August 2024.

Unlisted Companies

TurnStay, a local fintech startup specialising in reducing the cost of getting paid for African merchants and platforms in the travel and tourism industry, has successfully secured R5,4 million in funding from US-based venture capital firms DFS Lab and Digital Currency Group. The funds will be used to expand its operations in Africa and strengthen its position in South Africa.

South African ride sharing platform LULA has acquired Zello’s operations in South Africa. Zeelo, a UK TransitTech company providing software and services to organisations to increase trust, efficiency and sustainability in commuter shuttle services, will exit South Africa to focus on its further expansion in the UK, Ireland and North America. Since its launch five years ago, LULA has maintained a year-on-year growth of between 2.5x and 4x despite interruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and a difficult socio-economic environment.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Shareholders of RMH shares will receive a special dividend of 3.75 cents per RMH share. The announcement follows the successful sale by Atterbury Property to Attacq of the remaining 20% share in Mall of Africa for R1,07 billion and the subsequent decision by the Atterbury board to return cash to shareholders.

Pick n Pay has successfully closed the retail offer on the PrimaryBid platform. The company issued 2,659,574 ordinary shares at 94 pence, raising £2,5 million.

Brait’s fully underwritten equity capital raise will open on 29 July and close on 8 August 2024. The company intends to raise R1,5 billion and will offer 2,542,372,881 shares. Shareholders may apply for rights offer shares not taken up in excess of their pro rata entitlement. The proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes, potential investment in existing portfolio company and the repayment of debt.

Orion Minerals has issued 479,509,997 new shares at an issue price of 1.5 cents, raising A$7,2 million. The company had hoped to raise A$7,7 million from the private placement to fund progress on the development of the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine.

The JSE has notified shareholders of aReit Prop, Accelerate Property Fund and Sebata that the listings of these companies have been annotated with RE to indicate their failure to submit annual reports timeously and as such may be suspended if not submitted before 31 July 2024.

African Dawn Capital has had the trading of its shares suspended by the JSE for failure to publish its annual financial statements for the year ending 29 February 2024.

The majority of creditors have accepted the Business Rescue Plan for Wescoal Mining (Salungano). Wescoal Mining operations will continue under the oversight of the BRPs for the benefit of all affected parties following the implementation of the plan.

A number of companies announced the repurchase of shares:

In the period 29 April to 12 July 2024, Oasis Crescent Property Fund repurchased 2,017,022 units for an aggregate value of R40,11 million. The repurchases were funded out of the Fund’s available cash resources.

In line with its share buyback programme announced in March, British American Tobacco this week repurchased a further 900,000 shares at an average price of £24.82 per share for an aggregate £22,33 million.

In terms of its US$5 million general share repurchase programme announced in March 2024, Tharisa has repurchased a further 33,993 ordinary shares on the JSE at an average price of R19.69 per share and 651,594 ordinary shares on the LSE at an average price of 83.44 pence. The shares were repurchased during the period 8 – 12 July 2024.

Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period 8 – 12 July 2024, a further 2,976,575 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €99,09 million and a further 260,187 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R925,03 million.

Three companies issued profit warnings this week: Trencor, Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore.

Four companies issued cautionary notices this week: Chrometco, Burstone, Sasfin and Vunani.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

DealMakers AFRICA

Dutch entrepreneurial development bank, FMO, announced a US$295 million syndicated loan facility to Access Bank to support the Nigerian SME sector. This is the largest syndication in FMO’s history. Its partners include British International Investment, the Belgium development financial institution, BIO, impact investor BlueOrchard, FinDev Canada, Finnfund, Norfund, Oikocredit and Swedfund.

The Development Bank of South Africa, as the Mandated Lead Arranger of the Sosian Geothermal project in Kenya, will underwrite the entire US$68 million senior debt which will be used to develop, finance, construct and operate a 35MW geothermal power plant in the Menengai Geothermal Field, Nakuru.

Dopay, an Egyptian fintech that provides a digital payroll and payments platform, has secured a US$13,5 million extension round, topping up the $18 million raised in its Series A. The extension round was led by Argentem Creek Partners with participation from existing investors.

Kenyan skincare firm, Uncover, has raised US$1,4 million in an oversubscribed funding round led by EQ2 Ventures and IgniteXL Ventures. Chui Ventures, Samata Capital and Altree Capital also participated. Uncover has built a tech platform that uses data provided by users to create personalised skin care products.

Critical Mineral Resources has signed an exclusive option agreement to acquire the high grade silver and copper Igli Project in Morocco. The agreement is for a 90% stake at a total cost of $790,000. The remaining 10% can be acquired for another $500,000 in cash.

British International Investment has provided NMB Bank Zimbabwe, with a US$10 million loan to support agricultural exporters and sustainable farming practices in the country.

TotalEnergies EP Nigeria has sold its 10% stake in the SPDC JV licenses in Nigeria to Chappal Energies for US$860 million. SPDC JV is an unincorporated joint venture between Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Ltd (55%), Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (30%), TotalEnergies EP Nigeria (10%) and NAOC (5%), which holds 18 licenses in the Niger Delta.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has announced a $15 million financing package for Sri Lanka-based Star Garments Group to build the first large-scale, export-focused apparel manufacturing centre in Togo. The greenfield clothing factory is expected to create 4,520 direct and indirect jobs, especially for women. The factory will be built just outside of Lomé in the Plateforme Industrielle d’Adétikopé industrial park.

DealMakers AFRICA is the Continent’s M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

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