Saturday, January 10, 2026

Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Jubilee Metals | HCI | Schroder European Real Estate)

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Just how big is AB InBev? (JSE: ANH)

So big that a $3 billion deal gets a SENS announcement with four paragraphs!

AB InBev announced that they are exercising their right to reacquire a minority stake in the US-based metal container plants. The sellers are a consortium of investors led and/or advised by Apollo Global Management. AB InBev will reacquire a 49% stake and will pay a casual $3 billion for the privilege.

This is bigger than the market cap of many companies on the JSE, yet the deal gets just a four-paragraph SENS announcement! This is because the company’s market cap is nearly R1.9 trillion. Deal sizes are all relative.

The metal container plant operations span six states in the US and are clearly strategically important. 49% doesn’t give AB InBev control of the facilities obviously, but does give them significant influence.

They expect this deal to be EPS accretive in year 1, so it looks like a capital allocation decision above all else. If you’ve got the opportunity to deploy capital into assets that you are already familiar with at an attractive price, then why not?


Jubilee Metals has received the next $10 million for the SA PGM sale (JSE: JBL)

The bigger question is: will we see a takeover bid in 2026?

Jubilee Metals has come up quite a bit in the past few days as a stock pick by Ghost Mail readers. I’m not surprised at all to be honest. There’s much focus on copper among the biggest names in the mining sector, so it seems highly plausible that we could see an acquirer swoop in and try take all the assets now that Jubilee is a copper pure play.

For those whose hearts were broken by Jubilee’s decision to sell the PGM assets just before those prices really took off, there would at least be something to smile about if an offer comes in. It’s not easy when Jubilee’s price is flat over the past year and other PGM names have climbed on a rocket to the moon.

The latest from the company is that the second tranche of $10 million in cash from One Chrome (for the disposal of the SA PGM assets) has now been received. There are still substantial payments to be received in years to come, as the total price is up to $90 million (some of which is conditional) and they’ve received $25 million thus far.


HCI’s property disposals continue (JSE: HCI)

Whale Village Mall in Hermanus is the latest example

The penny has certainly dropped at Hosken Consolidated Investments (JSE: HCI): investors are taking operational risk on the company and thus would prefer it to not be sitting on properties that offer hybrid returns (somewhere between debt and equity). It just muddies the water and there are plenty of property funds on the JSE that allow investors to get that exposure elsewhere.

The latest example of HCI offloading property is Whale Coast Village in Hermanus. HCI holds 80% in an entity that has a 65% stake in the property. The 65% stake is being sold for R600 million.

The proceeds will first be used to settle taxes and debt worth R328 million. The remaining R272 million will be distributed to the shareholders, so HCI’s 80% should be worth just under R218 million.

There are various conditions to be met before the cash can flow.


A perfectly flat quarter for the Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (JSE: SCD)

Of course, there’s volatility as you go further down

There were many ways to make money in property last year. The Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust certainly wasn’t one of them. Down 9% over 12 months and in the red even on a total return basis (i.e. with the distribution included), it’s a sad and sorry tale during a period in which the broader sector did really well.

They’ve got a bunch of problems to deal with, ranging from a tax dispute in France through to the need to replace a very large tenant at a mixed-use data centre in Apeldoorn.

In the three months to December, the overall valuation of the portfolio was perfectly flat. It was valued at €194 million at both September 2025 and December 2025. This means that there were some positive underlying stories (like the Berlin DIY asset) to offset the ongoing decline in the value of the Apeldoorn property as that lease draws closer to the end of its term.

My view is unchanged: why on earth would I pick this fund when there are so many easier and better options on the JSE?


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought shares worth just over R50k for his family.
    • A director of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth nearly R28k.
    • The son of the chair of Weaver Fintech (JSE: WVR) has clearly started dabbling in shares, with a purchase worth R1.4k and a sale a few days later for a small profit. Rather hold them kiddo; it worked well for me last year!
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) has now closed the acquisition of Renergen (JSE: REN) a deal that absolutely saved the aspiring helium producer. Given the importance of funding lines from the US, I think it will also help tremendously to be part of the ASP Isotopes stable based on their strong relationships on that side of the pond. And in case you’re wondering, Stefano Marani (ex-CEO of Renergen) has a new title: President, Electronics and Space! Nobody has business cards anymore, but that would be quite a card.
  • The delisting of Astoria (JSE: ARA) has been finalised based on offer acceptances of 36.42% having been received. The listing was terminated on 6 January. This led to various associates of directors of Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) receiving more shares in Goldrush on a pro rata basis as there was an unbundling of Goldrush shares by Astoria as part of the deal structure. I wouldn’t see this as a traditional director dealing, hence I haven’t included it in that section.
  • Deneb (JSE: DNB) has achieved all the conditions precedent for the acquisition of Dawning Filters, a deal that was announced in October 2025. The closing date will be 13 January 2026. It’s nice when these things close quickly!
  • 4Sight Holdings (JSE: 4SI) – a rather interesting dark horse among the JSE small caps – has agreed to repurchase R10 million worth of shares from a material shareholder (and related party) at 55 cents per share. The current share price is 75 cents, so that’s a sweet deal unless you believe that the current price is overcooked. The board thinks that the current price is undervalued, so 55 cents is truly a bargain. For context as to the size of this repurchase, the market cap of 4SI is R413 million. Despite this, the related party nature of the deal means that shareholder approval will be required (a special resolution, nogal – 75% approval!) and a circular will need to go to shareholders.
  • Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) has renewed the bland cautionary relating to negotiations that could have a material impact on the shares. It’s suspended from trading anyway, but theoretically there could be off-market trades and hence the cautionary is needed. A suspended share still has to meet its continuing obligations as a listed company.

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