Friday, July 17, 2026
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Ghost Bites (ArcelorMittal | ASP Isotopes | BHP | Coronation | iOCO | Karooooo | Prosus | Supermarket Income REIT)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Will the IDC swoop in and save ArcelorMittal?
  • Significant dilution for shareholders in ASP Isotopes
  • BHP signs off on a successful year, boosted by copper prices
  • Coronation has given an update on its assets under management
  • iOCO has announced a small acquisition in the ERP space
  • Karooooo’s recent bad press in Cartrack hasn’t taken the shine off the numbers
  • Prosus will be paid over R40 billion for the remaining stake in Delivery Hero
  • Supermarket Income REIT raised the £100 million they wanted

Will the IDC swoop in and save ArcelorMittal? (JSE: ACL)

And what could the commercial terms be?

ArcelorMittal has released a further cautionary announcement regarding the negotiations with the IDC. This has been going on for a long time, with the share price stuck in a deep, dark hole of despair:

There are a zillion reasons for this, most of which can be traced one way or another to the deindustrialisation of South Africa. It really is a very serious problem that is causing premature grey hairs for executives in any value chain that touches the heavy industrial sector in our country.

Given their name is literally the Industrial Development Corporation, this does seem like something that the IDC would want to address. I shudder to think where the ArcelorMittal share price would be if not for the ongoing negotiations with the IDC…

Ghost Bite: We should find out soon whether it’s South African taxpayers or market speculators (who bought stock recently) who will feel the pain. Someone is going to lose out here.


Significant dilution for shareholders in ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO)

A complex capital structure can dish up these kinds of surprises

ASP Isotopes is working towards a distinct capital structure for subsidiary Quantum Leap Energy (QLE). The intention is for QLE to separately in the US.

As part of this, a chunk of debt in QLE will be settled through the issuance of new listed shares by ASP Isotopes. To be precise, holders of $109.2 million in QLE notes will exchange those instruments for a whopping 23.2 million shares in ASP Isotopes. This represents 17.8% of ASP’s stock!

This is substantial dilution that the market clearly wasn’t expecting to see, as the share price closed 11% lower on this news. Investors don’t like being diluted. Few market participants are doing the level of research required to spot this potential source of dilution in the capital structure.

Accounting rules try and make allowance for hybrid instruments, but nothing brings the message home quite like the news of your position being diluted by 17.8%. It’s worth pointing out that removing debt from further down in the structure also makes the entire group more valuable in the equity layer, so “dilution” isn’t always an issue. It depends on the terms at which the instruments have been converted.

Even after this, there would still be another $110.7 million in notes in QLE running around. Could there be further dilution down the line? And at what price?

Ghost Bite: A capital structure with many layers, particularly of a mezzanine finance nature (convertible instruments), needs thorough research before being fully understood. This is why the market tends to reward simplicity.


BHP signs off on a successful year, boosted by copper prices (JSE: BHG)

But be careful of the copper guidance for FY27

BHP has released an operational review for the year ended June 2026. As the largest mining group in the world, any update from BHP gets plenty of attention in the market. This is also the first major update delivered by Brandon Craig after he stepped into the CEO role with effect from 1 July 2026.

The share price has been doing very well in the past year, with a return of 46% (or 52% on a total return basis including dividends). This is despite recent challenges, like the delays and cost overruns at the Jansen Stage 2 potash project.

The underpin of this performance is copper, with BHP flagging that prices are up 35% vs. last year. Although BHP flatters its numbers by describing production as being “~2 Mt for the second consecutive year”, the somewhat less glowing reality is that production actually dipped by 3%. The production dips are set to keep dipping, with FY27 production forecast to be between 1.65 Mt and 1.8 Mt (due to an expected grade decline at Escondida).

At least unit costs came in at the bottom of the guided range for copper, so that should lead to solid returns to shareholders alongside the increase in copper prices. Hopefully the various copper projects underway will lead to improved production down the line.

The PR team kept the good times rolling in iron ore as well, describing 1% growth in production as “record” numbers. That’s technically true, but the word record appears over and over again in the announcement. It’s a bit over the top when the underlying growth is just 1%! More records may fall (by the tiniest of margins) in FY27, with iron ore production guidance of 260 to 272 Mt, suggesting a midpoint that is just above FY26 at 265 Mt.

Iron ore prices were up 3% for the year, with BHP reaffirming guidance for their unit costs in iron ore as well.

Steelmaking coal and energy coal don’t get much attention, but production was up 3% and 9% respectively.

Ghost Bite: Overall, it was a decent year for BHP. The market is rewarding them for their copper exposure. I just encourage you to look at the actual numbers, rather than the narrative that is designed to tell the best possible story.


Coronation has given an update on its assets under management (JSE: CML)

This means we have to go digging for comparatives

For reasons I will never understand, Coronation is allergic to providing historical numbers in their updates on assets under management (AUM). They always just give the latest number, without any indication of year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter growth. For a company focused on investing, you would think that they would put more than the bare minimum effort into their SENS announcements.

For what it’s worth, at least they are consistent with this approach regardless of whether they have good news or bad news.

As at 30 June 2026, AUM was R778 billion. That’s 4.3% higher than the AUM at 31 March 2026, which I think is good going against a backdrop of global disruption.

They are 5.5% up on the AUM a year ago (June 2025). This shows you that you cannot just extrapolate the movement over one quarter. In this case, the year-on-year number is far less impressive than the quarter-on-quarter view.

The share price is up just 1% over the past 12 months. Thanks to a fat dividend yield, the total return is 12.2%.


iOCO has announced a small acquisition in the ERP space (JSE: IOC)

Will they build the group through bolt-on deals like these?

iOCO, led by Rhys Summerton, is getting a lot of attention at the moment. Investors are very curious about the different permutations for this group, particularly as Summerton is a dyed-in-the-wool dealmaker who is very unlikely to just sit on his hands.

Will the deals be smaller in nature, or will we see a blockbuster transaction at some point? Could it be both? Perhaps most of all, is there a chance that Aimia (JSE: AII) could be involved? If you haven’t heard of Aimia before, this is a cash-flush entity that Summerton recently listed on the JSE.

For now, all we know is that iOCO is open to acquisitions in the South African market. They’ve announced a deal to acquire 100% of Astraia Technologies. Try say that name out loud without sounding like you have an Aussie accent!

Astraia is a South African enterprise resource planning (ERP) solutions provider. They specialise in cloud ERP implementations, financial software integration and business process optimisation. That sounds like it will be right at home in the iOCO stable. The deal is expected to become effective within six weeks.

We don’t know what the value of this deal is. We just know that there’s a performance-linked element that may become payable based on performance over the next 18 months. The value is undisclosed because this is such a small deal that it falls below the JSE categorisation thresholds.

Ghost Bite: I have a small position in iOCO, as I think the company represents decent value with optionality to the upside. Or, in simple terms, I think that Summerton will do something interesting. I don’t know what it is yet, but a management team that gives forward free cash flow guidance is a team that I’m willing to put some money behind. The guidance for FY26 is free cash flow of at least 60 cents per share. The current share price is R4.00. Yes, that’s a 15% forward free cash flow yield – in theory, at least.


Karooooo’s recent bad press in Cartrack hasn’t taken the shine off the numbers (JSE: KRO)

As is so often the case, the cash flow trend looks very different to earnings growth

Karooooo’s share price closed almost 9% higher after releasing first quarter 2027 results. This is because the numbers look great, despite key subsidiary Cartrack having to deal with a lot of bad press recently (about working conditions in South Africa). We will have to wait and see how that develops.

Total Cartrack subscribers grew by 18% year-on-year, surpassing the 2.8 million mark. Critically, net subscriber additions increased by 70% to 142,472. If you think about it, as the base gets bigger, it becomes harder to achieve strong growth rates. Achieving a consistent percentage growth rate requires more individual subscribers each time.

The important thing to remember is that Karooooo is still growing subscribers very nicely. Subscription revenue has followed suit, up 19% to R1.35 billion.

The Delivery-as-a-Service (DaaS) business achieved growth of 46%, but it remains small at just R177 million in revenue.

Operating profit margin always flaps around at Karooooo based on the timing of investment in capacity (like sales staff) vs. growth in subscriptions. Operating profit was up 16% in this quarter, so there was a contraction in operating profit margin from 30% to 28%. I’ve been invested in Karooooo for long enough to not be bothered by this.

Albeit off a small base, special mention goes to the DaaS business for growing operating profit by 50% to R15 million. The margin is still only 8% in that business, so I’m hoping that they can achieve margin expansion as the business scales.

Adjusted earnings per share increased by 11%. There’s no shame in double-digit growth!

Other important metrics relate to the cash generated by the group. As Karooooo invests in telematics devices to be put in customer vehicles, cash doesn’t always align with earnings.

In this period, net cash from operations before working capital changes increased by 21%. But once you reach free cash flow, having taken off the extensive investment in devices, you’ll find a sharp decline from R338 million to just R60 million. This volatility is pretty normal on a quarterly basis, so I wouldn’t read much into it. Karooooo has been executing this business model for a long time.

Guidance for FY27 is unchanged at this stage, although the underlying management commentary is bullish to say the least. They expect growth in expenses to moderate, unlocking space for margin to increase. Investors will also expect to see a positive swing in free cash flow as devices are deployed.

Ghost Bite: This is a strong start to FY27. With a total return of 161% over 3 years, Karooooo has been a great performer in my portfolio.


Prosus will be paid over R40 billion for the remaining stake in Delivery Hero (JSE: PRX)

The acquirer is Uber, giving us a sign that food delivery competition in Europe is heating up

Prosus has given an irrevocable undertaking to Uber to sell the remaining 16.8% in Delivery Hero. This is directly related to the terms of the European Commission’s approval of the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com by Prosus.

The requirements of the regulatory were vague to say the least, with Prosus needing to “significantly reduce” its stake of 26.5% at the time. There’s a point at which it simply doesn’t make sense to have shares anymore, hence the decision to sell the entire remaining stake to Uber.

This is part of a broader play by Uber for Delivery Hero, with a recently announced offer of €41.50 per share. Uber’s offer represents a 151% premium to the 30-day VWAP before Prosus first announced the disposal of 4.5% to Uber back in April this year.

Uber’s offer values Delivery Hero at nearly $15 billion. Prosus has 16.8% of that pie, so the expected proceeds will be over R40 billion before costs. That’s a proper payday that I hope will primarily be put towards share repurchases.

As an aside, I can only imagine how irritating it is for the European Commission that Uber is their saviour in terms of achieving competition in this space!

Ghost Bite: The success of Prosus CEO Fabricio Bloisi’s tenure will largely depend on the successful implementation of the Just Eat Takeaway.com opportunity. They made a big decision to step into that space and walk away from Delivery Hero.

125
Prosus gets a windfall

What would you like to see Prosus do with this capital?


Supermarket Income REIT raised the £100 million they wanted (JSE: SRI)

But the raise wasn’t upsized, which suggests that demand didn’t blow them away

Earlier in the week, Supermarket Income REIT announced that they were looking to raise £100 million in fresh equity to support an acquisition pipeline of nine assets. They also announced the details of three of the assets, with only a vague indication given of the remaining six.

The fund has a very tight strategy, with a focus on properties with leading grocery chains as the anchor tenant. This means that they can get away with being vague, as the market knows that the company will largely stick to its knitting.

The £100 million was raised without any issue. The investors were a combination of UK and South African institutions, as well as UK-based retail investors. South African retail investors weren’t given an opportunity to participate.

The shares were issued at 83 pence per share – quite a discount to the 89 pence per share price on the London Stock Exchange at the start of the week.

Ghost Bite: Supermarket Income REIT initially noted that the raise might be upsized, but that didn’t happen. It seems that the UK property market is still a tough sell to investors, as this raise was harder to get away than some of the other recent activity we’ve seen (like Hyprop’s (JSE: HYP) capital raise).


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Brait (JSE: BAT) has confirmed that all conditions precedent for the rights offer have been met. This means they can proceed with their plan to raise R2.5 billion from participating shareholders at a price of R1.51 per share. The shares will represent 30% of the company’s post-rights offer share capital. As I’ve pointed out several times, this is the strangest “value unlock” strategy around.
  • Efora Energy (JSE: EEL), suspended from trading and looking to put itself into provisional liquidation, announced that Vuyo Ngonyama has resigned as chairman of the board and as an independent non-executive director.

Accelerate’s rollercoaster share price; Purple buys Telescope

This edition of Ghost Bites makes sense of these SENS announcements:

  • Accelerate Property Fund sells the BMW showroom in Fourways and gives earnings guidance
  • Alphamin’s latest quarter has been driven by tin prices – but how does the AI theme affect this company?
  • Purple Group is acquiring Telescope AI, but there are questions around the valuation
  • Sappi’s latest quarter isn’t quite as bad as expected

Always do your own advice and speak to your financial advisor before making any investments. The Finance Ghost may hold positions in any of these stocks at time of recording or subsequently.

Watch on YouTube

Listen to the podcast

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Supermarket Income REIT will add three grocery supermarkets to its portfolio in a £118 million deal. The UK stores include a Sainsbury store in Manchester and two Tesco stores, one in Edinburgh and the other in Halifax. The company has raised gross proceeds of £100 million via the placement of 120,481,928 shares at an issue price of 83 pence per share for accretive acquisitions such as this.

Prosus has undertaken to sell all its remaining 16.8% stake in Delivery Hero to Uber Technologies at a purchase price of €41.50 per ordinary share for €2,1 million (c.R40 million). The deal represents a 151% premium over Delivery Hero’s 1-month VWAP before the announcement of the company’s initial 4.5% stake sale to Uber.

Purple Group and First World Trader (EasyEquities) will each acquire 50% of Telescope AI, an AI provider of AI investment discovery, research, technical analysis, conversational intelligence and compliance infrastructure to brokerages and trading platforms. The deal is worth up to US$10,75 million: Purple Group will pay $7 million on closing of which $5 million will be in cash and $2 million through the issue of 19,1 million new Purple Group shares. A further $3,75 million is payable in deferred consideration over time – up to $2,75 million in five equal annual instalments, subject to Telescope AI’s operating cash outflows staying within agreed limits, and up to $1 million under a performance-based accelerator tied to milestones over five years. The deferred amounts may be settled in cash or shares at Purple Group’s election. Completion of the deal is subject to approval from the SARB.

Southern Ocean has acquired Southern Atlantic Cables, a specialist supplier of electrical wire and related products, for a purchase consideration of R4,5 million. The acquisition is intended to strengthen South Ocean’s position within the electrical wire and related infrastructure sectors, by securing a foothold in the Cape Town market. The purchase consideration will be settled through the issue of 4,591,837 ordinary shares in South Ocean at an issue price of 98 cents per share.

Mantengu has entered into an agreement to dispose of the iron beneficiation plant located in Phalaborwa, Limpopo for R50 million. The plant was acquired by the company for R18,98 million in February 2025 from Masorini Iron Beneficiation, which at the time, was in liquidation.

iOCO has acquired South African enterprise resource planning solutions provider Astraia Technologies for an undisclosed sum. The company specialises in cloud ERP implementations, financial software integration and business process optimisation. The acquisition will enhance iOCO’s infrastructure and managed services capabilities, while broadening the Group’s access to enterprise customers and vendor ecosystems.

Serowe Industries has terminated its non-binding offer from to acquire up to a 34.9% stake in Visual International.

Knife Capital, alongside FAM Investments, has co-led a US$5 million funding round by Cue, a South African autonomous AI customer service platform. The funding will be used for further product development, international expansion and deeper investment in voice, security and enterprise integrations.

The Competition Commission has given the green light to Harith GP to acquire FlySafair, a deal announced in February this year. There were competition concerns as Harith owns a significant stake in Lanseria. The deal will now seek approval from the Competition Tribunal.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Supermarket Income REIT has raised gross proceeds of £100 million via the placement of 120,481,928 shares at an issue price of 83 pence per share. The new shares represent c.10% of the existing issue share capital of the company. The equity raise will part fund a pipeline of nine grocery assets for £215 million which includes this week’s announced £118 million acquisition of a portfolio of three UK supermarkets.

Brait will proceed with the Rights Offer to raise gross proceeds of R2,5 billion through the subscription of 1,655,629,139 shares at a price of R1,51 per share – representing a 25% discount. The shares will constitute c.30% of the company’s post-Rights Offer ordinary share capital. The offer is fully committed and underwritten.

ASP Isotopes has agreed to exchange certain Quantum Leap Energy (a subsidiary of ASP) convertible notes for ordinary shares. ASPI will exchange 23,2 million ASPI shares, representing 17.8% of ASPI’s shares for an aggregate principal amount of US$109,2 million of outstanding QLE Notes.

Novus has acquired an additional 131,346 Mustek shares at an average R15.00 per share on the open market (outside of the Mandatory Offer) for R1,97 million. The company now holds 29,16 million Mustek shares constituting 50.67% of the issued shares in Mustek. Together with concert parties this shareholding increases to c.70.96%.

Labat Africa has transferred 900,000,000 ordinary shares in the company in respect of its R27 million acquisition of a further 24.45% stake in Classic International. The shares were issued at R0.03 per share.

Following the results of the scrip dividend election, Afine Investments will issue 1,145,369 new ordinary shares in the company in lieu of an interim dividend, resulting in a capitalisation of the distributable retained profits in the company of R5,02 million. The shares were based on a reinvestment price of R4.38 per share.

Master Drilling has received the required exchange control approval from the SARB to pay shareholders a special dividend of R0.40 per share from income reserves. Payment date is set for 17 August 2026.

Old Mutual is set to apply to migrate its foreign listing on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange to that of the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange. The VFEX is a US dollar-denominated exchange which will result in lower currency risk than that of the ZSE.

Hudaco Industries has repurchased 1,499,892 shares at R189 per share for an aggregate R283,5 million. The repurchase was funded from available cash resources and represents 4.86% of the company’s share capital at the time the authority was granted.

Reinet Investments intends to purchase its ordinary shares at market value for an aggregate maximum amount of €500 million subject to a maximum of 16.5 million ordinary shares over a period up to the 2027 Annual General Meeting of the Company. The implementation will be through several successive and separate programmes and shares will not be cancelled. The Rupert family has declared its intention not to sell any shares during the duration of this Programme. This week Reinet acquired 409,935 shares on the JSE for an aggregate R182 million.

To reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders, Quilter commenced, in March 2026, a £100 million share buyback programme. Repurchases to date total £40 million of which £32 million were conducted on the LSE and £8 million were conducted on the JSE. The maximum aggregate purchase price payable by the Company under Tranche 2 is up to C.£30 million. During the period 6 to 10 July 2026, Quilter repurchased 66,000 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £133,274 and 116,278 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R5,20 million.

In June, Greencoat Renewables announced its intention to commence a second tranche of the repurchase programme which will return a further €25m of capital to shareholders, following the completion of the first tranche which is expected during July. The second tranche repurchase will be complete by end-December 2026. This week 1,010,339 shares were repurchased for an aggregate €767,809.

Bytes Technology announced in May 2026 its intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million. This week the company repurchased 275,000 shares at an average price per share of £3.99 for an aggregate £1,09 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. All shares repurchased will be cancelled. Over the period 6 to 10 July 2026, the company repurchased a further 565,783 shares at an average price of £45.83 per share for an aggregate £25,72 million.

Ninety One plc announced an increase in the repurchase programme from £30 million to £55 million to be completed by 21 July 2026. The shares, to be purchased on the open market, will be cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 786,136 ordinary shares at an average price 217 pence for an aggregate £1,7 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 6 to 10 July 2026, the group repurchased 536,830 shares for €37,62 million.

During the period 6 to 10 July 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,527,143 Prosus shares for an aggregate €99,97 million and Naspers, a further 1,121,078 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R965,41 million.

Six companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Mantengu, Tongaat Hulett, Raubex, Numeral, Newpark REIT and ArcelorMittal South Africa.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

Noma Services Consolidated, a Nigerian agribusiness specialising in the aggregation and processing of commodities including rice, maize, sorghum, and beans, has closed a US$650,000 loan facility from Sahel Capital’s Social Enterprise Fund for Agriculture in Africa (SEFAA). The facility comprises $400,000 for working capital and $250,000 for capital expenditure.

Egyptian integrated e-commerce last-mile delivery and fulfilment company, Mylerz Egypt, has raised more than US$2 million (EGP100 million) in a funding round led by Lorax Capital Partners, with participation from Fawry and a group of existing investors. The new debt and equity funding be deployed to bolster Mylerz Egypt’s continued growth across the Egyptian market.

Impact Fund Denmark is investing €25 million in subordinated debt to NSIA Bank in Côte d’Ivoire, a subsidiary of the pan-African NSIA Group, to support its plans to increase lending to micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) annually over the coming years. The investment will strengthen the bank’s capital base, enabling it to scale lending to underserved MSMEs and support its long-term growth strategy.

TLG Capital has announced a US$5 million private credit facility for SHONA Capital, backing the SMEs that will drive Uganda’s next chapter of growth. The facility was designed to accelerate SHONA’s next phase of growth: quadrupling their loan book, expanding across Uganda, and attracting additional institutional partners. At the core of SHONA Capital’s model is its proprietary underwriting process and technology, which automates borrower onboarding, data processing, credit assessment, and management support. This allows SHONA Capital to disburse funds within 5 – 10 days, advancing digital financial inclusion for businesses that banks and microfinance institutions have historically been unable to reach.

Raxio Group, the African data centre platform, has surpassed US$380 million in committed capital as shareholders Meridiam and Roha increased their support for the company’s next phase of growth. The additional equity from Roha and Meridiam extends Raxio’s capital base from a previous $350 million, building on a $100 million financing package secured from the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) last year, along with debt funding from Proparco and the Emerging Africa & Asia Infrastructure Fund (EAAIF).

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep131 | South Africa’s consumer crunch

Listen to the podcast here:

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Are South African consumers past the worst of the fuel shock?

Household budgets have been hit by higher fuel prices, rising inflation and pressure on real wages. But fuel prices are starting to fall. The risk is timing. Will relief arrive before households are forced to cut back further?

Host Jeremy Maggs unpacks the consumer outlook with Annabel Bishop, Investec Chief Economist, on No Ordinary Wednesday.

Listen to the full conversation to find out more. Read more on www.investec.com/now

Please scroll down for the transcript if you wish to read instead of listen.

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Transcript:

00:00: Introduction:

Jeremy

Consumers in South Africa entered the second half of the year on shaky ground. Household finances were already under strain before higher fuel prices, rising inflation, and renewed global uncertainty added another layer of pressure.

Yet the picture is not entirely bleak. Fuel prices are falling. The rand has shown some resilience. Wage growth is gradually improving. The question is whether that relief will arrive quickly enough for households already feeling stretched.

Then, of course, there’s the weather, with early forecasts suggesting South Africa could be heading into an El Niño cycle later this year, potentially bringing below-average rainfall across parts of the country and raising fresh questions about food prices and inflation in 2027. So where does that leave consumers in South Africa?

Hello, I’m Jeremy Maggs. This is No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec’s fortnightly podcast. In this episode, we’re going to examine the forces shaping South African consumers, from fuel and food prices to wages and interest rates.

It’s a pulse check on the household sector that accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity and remains one of the most important drivers of growth. Joining me is Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop.

Annabel, welcome back.

01:23 – What is the consumer telling us?

Jeremy

Let’s start with a broad understanding of consumers in South Africa right now. We know they are the engine of the economy. How would you assess the health of the consumer right now?

Annabel

I think we know we’re going through a bit of a difficult patch in South Africa, given the oil price shock and the impact on fuel prices. But just to have a look at where consumers were when that started, and consumers did start the second quarter on a weak foot. Spending growth essentially stalled in the first quarter at 0.1%. The drop came as consumer faced the financial hangover from a festive period.

Obviously, there was some credit stress. So that’s not unexpected for the first quarter of a year. We talk about January-worry, for example. But typically, consumers do tend to see improvement over March and particularly into obviously April and the second quarter. That’s where we’ve really seen some difficulty.

The bottom line, I think, is that, while we obviously are going through a more difficult period, this is not something which is expected to be structural and really not even something cyclical, but more of a once-off event.

02:32 – What does the consumer signal for South Africa’s growth this year?

Jeremy

Annabel, I suspect that you can also do some broad economic extrapolation here. What does the household sector then tell us about the growth outlook moving forward?

Annabel

With consumers experiencing quite a poor hit in the second quarter, disposable income suffering from substantially higher fuel prices, which are expected to be temporary, and we’ve already seen some moderation, the economic impact for 2026 is likely to see GDP growth of maybe 1.3% instead of 1.5%.

Interestingly, that’s not only our view, but it’s also has become consensus view as well. So, this talks to the fact that there’s likely to be a moderate impact on the economic outlook, and I think that’s absolutely key. Consumers are the vital driver, the engine for the South African economy, close to 70%. And with the household consumption expenditure output itself this year running at closer to probably about 1.8% from an expectation point of view, you can see that a lot of the drop-down has rather come from the heavy hit to the trade account.

As we know, consumers will continue to spend their incomes whether they have to spend less on one item and more on another to afford the fuel price hikes. Overall, they’re still spending the same quantum. So really where the impact comes in from the consumer instead will obviously be on the inflation side. But we do not think there’s going to be a enormously detrimental impact on the economy.

Of course, we’ve seen some escalation in the Middle East recently. Expectations are still for a fairly good GDP outcome, but much will depend now how long this latest flare-up occurs in Iran and in the Strait of Hormuz, and of course, if it worsens or not.

04:11- What is squeezing households most?

Jeremy

Across all data points, Annabel, is there a single pressure point that matters most right now?

Annabel

I think if you’re looking at inflation it obviously would be transport. That really has come through with a very big impact and differentiated against different income groups. I think this is also quite interesting as well.

There’s been this very substantial jump in the cost of living or consumer price inflation pressures, as you’re talking about, faced by South Africans this year because of the oil price shock in the Middle East. We started the year with expectations of a benign inflation environment. There wasn’t anticipation that we’d see inflation rise to 4.5%, which is where it is now. The expectation was it would average 3%.

The benign inflation outlook has changed, placing significant upward pressure on household finances, which as we said earlier, already showed higher debt pressure in the first quarter. Interestingly, income earners of over about 300 and maybe 10,000 per annum, they’ve really seen inflation jump from 3% to 5% in May, and that’s the latest inflation figure.

So, in a way it’s almost an income group story as well, which is quite key. If you look at your lower deciles, and if you look at the inflation figures where you have for example 2.6% inflation figure, and it’s actually dropped to 2.3% for very low-income earners, they haven’t had such a big impact from a fuel price perspective. These often tend to be people who are not traveling very much, low-income earners and typically unemployed individuals. That even has seen falling inflation rates right up until your middle decile number five.

This is very fascinating because if you divide income earners in the South African economy into 10 income groups, people who are earning around R300,000 a year are actually in the upper income strata.

This is where the bigger impact has come from the fuel prices and that’s really been a key sticking point. So really the bottom line for consumers is that if you divide the incomes in the economy into 10 groups, your upper income group has really seen inflation rise dramatically from 3%, as we said at the start of the year before the fuel price increases, to 5.3% and likely moving towards 6%. Whereas the lower income deciles, the lower income groupings, if you will, one to five, they’ve seen inflation fall from around 2.5% close to 2% for the lowest income group and even for the mid group from three to about 2.9-2.7%.

This talks to the fact that there’s been quite a different experience across consumers in the South African economy in the face of the oil price shock.

06:46 – How hard has the fuel shock hit households?

Jeremy

Annabel, as you’ve referenced, consumers were already under pressure before fuel prices surged. So, one’s got to wonder then how much damage the oil shock has done and are households still feeling the worst of it?

Annabel

Yes. As we know, the first fuel price hike came through in April this year for South Africans. Even though the Middle East war, the oil price shock, began at the end of February, the month of March was one of calculation where government in South Africa looked at what the impact would really be for consumers. And only in February did we see the first jump.

In fact, the second quarter of this year saw petrol prices rise by R7.76 a litre and that’s a very big jump. And of course, the big impact that it has really had for households. The diesel price rising by about R9.35 for those who drive diesel vehicles. That has cut household purchasing power. It’s affected household finances. So, this really means a number of goods and services consumers can buy with their same income, if we don’t have any salary or wage changes, that declines.

Consumers can buy less and this negatively impacts households, as we said, in the second quarter, while high interest rates also eat into disposable incomes. Let’s not forget that we have also seen the Reserve Bank hike interest rates in May by 25 basis points. Given the latest flare-up in the Middle East, may well do so again now in July.

So, there’s been this differentiation. You talk about how much of this has reached households and how much has worked through. Most of it has come through on a direct causal impact, higher fuel prices straight into the impact on finances and straight into inflation that way.

There has not been evidence of second-round effects, evidence of other goods and services’ prices rising meaningfully. There might be a very slight movement here or there, and that’s even hard to discern whether it’s due to fuel prices. But really, it’s just been this straight direct effect that’s come through so far.

With the Reserve Bank hiking interest rates in May, they did it pre-emptively because they believe there may be some second-round effects but those are yet to manifest if indeed there are any. That’s where we’d look at higher food prices, for example, which haven’t occurred, but should they occur because, for example, fertiliser costs prices have gone up. Agrichemical costs have gone up very substantially.

The good news is that they went up and they came down again. The same obviously for diesel and petrol prices, we’ve seen a few fuel price cuts. Overall, there hasn’t been much impact at all on other categories in the CPI basket.  It’s just mainly been on fuel prices and that’s really where it hits your higher income earners.

09:15 – Ahead of the SARB decision, how have consumers handled a year of high rates?

Jeremy

From a longer perspective, the SARB meets again on the 23rd of July. Before we get to what might happen, on a broader canvas, how has the consumer responded to the interest rate environment that we’ve had over the past 12 months?

Annabel

The Reserve Bank has noted that out of total household expenditure, the average household spends close to 16% on transport under normal conditions, and this increases in fuel price jumps, which obviously then really strain households.

The consumer has really seen an interest rate cut cycle over the past few years. This interest rate hike that we saw in May was the first one. It was a turn in the cycle. If we look at how the consumer responded to interest rate environment we’ve had over the past year or even the past few years, consumers have benefited.

They have seen cuts; inflation drop down and a low inflation target. It has been very beneficial for consumers. Now, of course, as we noted, there was no cut in interest rates in the first quarter of this year, and instead there was a hike in the second quarter. But even it’s a very modest hike. I don’t think it’s had a major impact yet.

Of course, if we go through a series of interest rate hikes, we see another one in July and perhaps further in the year, that’s not expected. It’s not the base case. If we are going to get a series of interest rate hikes, we may get another one in July, but it’s not expected to be persistent. That will of course then have a more serious impact on consumers who will then have to cut back further in terms of expenditure.

This is all being done to limit inflation. CPI inflation on average is at 4.5%, while CPI inflation may be at close to 5.5% for your upper income earners. This is where you see people, as we said before, that the top income bracket in South Africa being calculated by Stats SA around the R310,000 mark. If you look at that per month, it’s probably around 25,000 rand a month.

But that’s something which is not the average experience, but it doesn’t really matter for the Reserve Bank. Some other income groups might be seeing inflation falling overall because inflation is no longer at the 3% inflation target range and it has moved to 4.5% and may move towards 5% and if not above this year. That is why the Reserve Bank would then consider hiking again.

And of course, that’s when you’re going to see an impact to consumers as we start to see the cumulative effects of high interest rates. It really takes probably two to three quarters, if not four quarters, for the full effect of interest rate hikes to feed through. But nevertheless, consumers do need to brace for this potentially.

11:41 – Does inflation block rate relief, or does weak growth keep it alive?

Jeremy

The MPC, from what I understand, faces something of a trade-off here. Does higher inflation rule out then rate relief, or does weak growth such as we experience still keep the door open?

Annabel

Yes. The South African Reserve Bank’s primary objective is price stability. So, they will focus on inflation, to answer your question quickly. The inflation outlook, however, is what’s most important for the Reserve Bank. They make a judgment on where will inflation be in six months to 12 months’ time? And as a consequence of that, they would adjust interest rates now or not do so to try and seek to control, alter inflation in that period.

They don’t do the same with economic growth. We don’t target economic growth. It’s not something which is looked at in terms of the inflation targeting framework. The real sticking point for economic growth in South Africa is structural, as the Reserve Bank themselves have said many times, and that is the fact that we, despite improvements, still see big structural impediments to economic growth at the ports and in other areas of the economy from an infrastructure perspective. We’ve talked before about the difficulties in bureaucracy, red tape, and there’s still the difficulty in investing in the mining sector. Another discussion for another day.

The Reserve Bank will really focus on inflation. They’ll look at things as well like the exchange rate, and what exchange rate movements mean for inflation. There was a comment recently by the governor saying we’ve had lower oil prices, that helps on the inflation outlook. But then, most recently since his comment, we’ve had much higher oil prices.

So, we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen next week when we see the MPC decision, because we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen in the Middle East. If we see a collapse down oil prices back towards $70 a barrel, most likely no interest rate hike. But if they stay sticky where they are, the Reserve Bank may consider another precautionary increase.

13:49 – Why do fuel prices fall slowly, and what does that mean for inflation?

Jeremy

Let me circle back to that oil price debate then. Fuel prices, Annabel, we know rise very quickly, but obviously fall more slowly. Could you explain to us, and maybe this is just a straight economics 101 question, why the descent is so uneven, and what does that mean for inflation?

Annabel

It’s a good point because when the oil price leapt up from $65 a barrel before the start of the oil price shock, and at one point went to a $120 a barrel. We were in line for a bigger petrol price jump than we did see. That is because government took off about R3 to R4 a litre in the general fuel price levy. So, oil price shocks typically do this. You see a massive and very rapid escalation in fuel prices. Then that market shock is typically slow to unwind if there’s uncertainty, perhaps about the impact and the outlook, or there’s uncertainty around the war and how long will it take to get the ships flowing again to get oil prices moving.

We’ve had a slightly different event that globally the high fuel prices, gasoline, that’s petrol for us, and gas oil, that’s diesel for us, have seen quite big drops, even agriculture as well, because such substantially higher prices have really increased margins. There’s been a lot more production and bigger suppliers push down these prices.

We import all our fuel, or we price all our fuel in South Africa on petroleum product imports. Those have been benchmarked against international fuel prices. They’ve seen a decrease, but it hasn’t been quick enough because there are still supply constraints. There are still issues. But nevertheless, fuel prices are expected to continue to come down, just not as rapidly as they went up in the beginning.

15:35 – Are wages keeping pace, or is real income still being squeezed?

Jeremy

Annabel consumers will rightly ask whether wages are keeping up with the costs that households feel or is real income still being squeezed?

Annabel

That’s really the sticking point. Take home pay fell, disposable income, by 0.8% in April. April was the first month we saw a jump up in inflation because we obviously saw that was the first month that fuel prices came through and yes, disposable income fell. So, wages are not keeping up with inflation.

In May again we also saw real wages fall again. This has really made it quite difficult for consumers. If we have perhaps seen salary and wage increases maybe of 3% because that was the expectation that inflation now having reached the target that early this year, maybe in January or February wage setting, was really agreed around perhaps 3% or decided on a 3%. And then suddenly by April we had a fall and then May a 4.5% inflation rate. Possibly by June we might go to about 4.6%, but then we could tick-up towards 5%.

That means that you really are not keeping pace at all, and that cut in terms of real incomes will obviously make itself felt in terms of weakening economic growth as fewer goods and services can be afforded by consumers.

16:56 – What did South Africa learn from the last major El Niño episode?

Jeremy

And if that’s not enough, Annabel, then there’s the weather. So, let’s talk about the El Niño risk later this year. Obviously, it could add a food price shock to the fuel shock. Did we learn anything from the last big episode?

Annabel

El Niño’s very interesting for South Africa. The El Niño means drought for South Africa. It means not only pressure on supply, but particularly pressure on prices. El Niños in the past have really pushed up, they’ve ramped up inflation. Having a look at the El Niño itself as it develops, it’s a weather pattern and it could be perhaps more severe or less severe than is being anticipated. Certainly, the international weather bodies who monitor this have said it’s going to be moderate. It’s not going to be a light or easy one, and it could well develop into a severe one, and perhaps a very severe one.

The last time we had a severe El Niño in South Africa was when we were in the 2015-2016 period. There was another one in the early 2020s but the 2015-2016 was a severe one, which is potentially being indicated for the current weather phenomena that’ll come through.

That really is seen to come through in the November to February period in terms of most of its severity. Obviously, a lot depends on how long it lasts for, when it does occur, whether it does develop into a severe or very severe El Niño weather phenomena, or whether it does not. So still a lot up in the air.

We’ve raised our inflation forecast for next year to about 3.7%. We had an inflation forecast which was a lot lower than that for next year, and part of that was because you just have a big statistical base effect. As you saw inflation jump up in April this year because all the fuel prices went up. So next year, inflation would fall quite substantially because we find ourselves in a situation where we then see that statistical base effect suppress the outcome.

To return to your El Niño question. In the last severe El Niño, for example, fish, which one would think would be afflicted because of what happens in the ocean, it only has a weighting of 0.4%. It’s less than a 1% weighting in the index, and it’s immaterial to the CPI outcome. I think what we really need to do is have a look at the weightings of what are the areas of food, because drought affects food production, that could be affected more because of their weightings.

Even though we did see a jump up in the seafood and fish component by about 20%, the weighting of 0.4% had less than 0.1 contribution to CPI over the entire two-year period. Now, if you look at meat prices, those are weighted by about 5%, and cereal products similarly as well, and that of course is your flour – it goes into absolutely everything, whether it’s biscuits or protein bars. That would have a bigger impact. When we did see cereal price inflation rise, it jumped from 4% to about 18% in the 2015-16 El Niño period.

That’s what happens, food price inflation does jump into double digits and eventually has a 25% contribution. Now, that gave you a 1.1% overall, and CPI inflation rose by 12.3% from the end of 2014 to the end of 2016. It wasn’t only food that was really infected. Yes, cereal products jumped up and meat products, but agriculture wasn’t the main driver of the jump in inflation that period because the economy’s seen quite a lot of maturation.

The inflation impact reflects the breakdown in terms of where goods and services and prices come from. That really affects consumer spend. With the economy becoming more sophisticated, more mature over the past several decades, a severe El Niño would have a much more detrimental impact to economy in the ’60s or ’70s or ’80s than it would have an economy in the 2000s.

While we think there will be some impact, we don’t think it’s going to be as severe, even if it’s a severe El Niño, based not only on the experience of the last one, but also based on the fact that there are many other goods and services which consumers now spend on, which obviously won’t be affected by the El Niño, such as furnishings, household equipment, healthcare costs and transport.

That will dull the impact somewhat because overall the component of food is less than 20% in the CPI basket, and that of course includes beverages as well as other areas of agriculture. So different times and revisions to CPI baskets every five years by the Reserve Bank have brought in other goods which would be less affected. And we don’t think it’s going to be something which would be as severe in the past as it would have been in the ’80s for people who could perhaps remember the detrimental impact that very bad El Niños had then.

21:34 – Six months from now, what could lift consumers?

Jeremy

Let’s finish with this, Annabel, and maybe a project if we can. If you and I are sitting here in six months’ time, what needs to happen for consumers to feel better off, and what is your biggest worry or what is the biggest risk that might derail that story?

Annabel

I think consumers would feel much better off if not only we reversed these fuel price increases of around R6/R7 – where we’re sitting now. We’ve had some cuts and there’s been a lot of movement. If we went back to where we were sitting in January or February in terms of fuel prices, and we even got fuel price cuts, that’s an interest rate cut. That would obviously make consumers feel much better. But of course, that’s not expected.

We expect to rather see a slower pace of return to normality in terms of fuel prices. Perhaps by the fourth quarter end of this year, we’d start to see the fuel price effect really work its way out, certainly by the end of the first quarter of next year. The Reserve Bank will remain caution. Interesting credit rating upgrades and many other factors also help in terms of making the Reserve Bank more comfortable in its interest rate environment, including the big improvement in our government finances and our low inflation target.

We’ve entered the crisis in a very strong footing with a low inflation rate, with improving government finances, fiscal consolidation, and of course the improvement in the investor climate. All of those are helpful, but we just need to get through the hump. We just need to get through this period of high fuel prices. And we don’t expect there’ll be a jump in food prices when the planting season begins in October/November this year from oil price shock. Instead, there’s worries around the El Niño and how it’ll affect our food component. But again, it’s not expected to be very extreme.

It looks like we, we’re probably in for the same type of stress that we’ve really seen from a consumer period for most of the rest of this year. But there really is a good signal that from next year, we should see consumers experiencing an improvement in their finances. Longer-term, we anticipate further interest rate cuts. We anticipate a return to the low inflation target, and that helps consumers from a real income expenditure perspective.

Ghost Bites (DRDGOLD | Hudaco | Richemont | Supermarket Income REIT)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • DRDGOLD released a refreshingly conversational presentation on their capital projects
  • Hudaco locked in the world’s strangest (or most efficient?) share repurchase
  • Richemont’s blowout sales growth brings luxury back in vogue
  • Supermarket Income REIT is raising £100 million (R2.2 billion) for acquisitions

DRDGOLD released a refreshingly conversational presentation on their capital projects (JSE: DRD)

They are in the peak of their capex cycle

DRDGOLD is busy executing its Vision 2028 strategy. This is an extensive capital programme designed to substantially increase throughput at the company’s underlying operations. Such is life in the mining sector – whether you operate underground or with surface tailings, you still need to spend money today if you want to make money down the line.

Full credit to the company for the language used in this presentation. They’ve done a good job of trying to simply complex concepts. For example, they explain that in 2023, they were “running out of room” at both Ergo and FWGR. The issue at Ergo related to tailings capacity and margin, whereas FWGR was lacking scale.

The net result of that issue? An infrastructure plan aimed at increasing throughput from 2.15 million tonnes per month (Mtpm) to 3Mtpm.

They began with an energy project at Ergo at a cost of R2.9 billion. The solar plant and battery energy storage system generates 47% of Ergo’s energy needs, helping the company avoid peak tariffs. Load shedding may be a thing of the past, but the economics generally still make sense in these projects thanks to Eskom’s tariff increases.

With that out of the way, DRDGOLD could move forward with five key projects and a total capex plan of R10 billion. This includes a number of projects across Ergo and FWGR.

The presentation goes into extensive detail on each of these projects, but even the efforts to explain the projects “simply” aren’t enough to offset how technical they are. I’m certainly not an engineer, so I won’t comment further on them.

Luckily, there’s a language that I can speak: chart. Here’s one showing the capex profile from FY24 to FY29:

Ghost Bite: As you can see, we are in the peak of this capex cycle. The timing of this presentation is no accident, as the company obviously wants to remind the market why they are spending all this money.


Hudaco locked in the world’s strangest (or most efficient?) share repurchase (JSE: HDC)

Talk about a market anomaly…

Hudaco announced a very odd share repurchase. On the 14th of July, the company repurchased nearly 1.5 million shares for a total price of R283 million. This is a casual 4.855% of the total shares in issue, repurchased on a single day.

For context, the average traded volume in Hudaco shares is 26,351 shares per day (according to Moneyweb data). In other words, this repurchase represents nearly 57x the average daily volume traded. Odd.

Now, block trades like these can be arranged between parties and can still be done through the JSE order book. But here’s the weirdest part: Hudaco says that there was no prior understanding or arrangement between the company and the counterparties.

For this to be correct, holders of nearly 5% of shares in issue casually offered these shares at R189 per share and watched Hudaco buy them.

Is it possible? Technically, yes. Is it weird? Yeah, it is.

Ghost Bite: The share repurchase is within the authority given at the last general meeting, so perhaps someone wanted to get out of their position and figured that Hudaco would be on the bid. Still, it’s a wild amount of shares to go through on a single day. The repurchase authority (5% of shares in issue at the time of the authority) has almost been fully utilised.


Richemont’s blowout sales growth brings luxury back in vogue (JSE: CFR)

You won’t often see 20% growth from a company of this size

Richemont released results for the quarter ended June 2026 that set many tongues wagging. I don’t think anyone was expecting a rather spectacular 20% increase in constant currency sales! Reported sales (i.e. net of currency movement) are almost as good, up by 17%.

Jewellery Maisons did the heavy lifting, up 24% at constant rates. Specialist Watchmakers put in a decent, if not spectacular performance. That segment grew sales by 8%. The “Other” bucket, where Richemont chucks all the other stuff, grew by 9%.

Onwards to the geographical split, which is very important at Richemont and for the luxury sector at large.

We find the Americas with an outrageous 27% increase in constant currency sales and a contribution of €1.67 billion in sales. This puts it even further ahead of Europe (€1.43 billion), where sales were up by only 11%. I must point out that 11% is still a solid outcome!

But the star of the show, if you consider size and growth rate together, was Asia Pacific. The region increased by 21% on a constant currency basis, coming in at just over €2 billion in sales. Sales in China rose by double digits, putting the shine back on the luxury story.

In the smaller segments, we have Japan with an exceptional 36% increase in constant currency. The yen has been a wild story, so this is only 20% in reported currency. Japan contributed €0.6 billion in sales, so this growth rate must be read in the context of the smaller base.

Middle East & Africa wasn’t great, as you might expect, with the conflict in Iran playing out in this quarter. Still, sales growth of 3% in constant currency is impressive against that backdrop. The region contributed over €0.5 billion in sales.

Richemont notes that some of the spend that would’ve been in the Middle East transitioned into Europe. Therein lies one great truth about the wealthy: they tend to be just as mobile as their capital!

If we look by distribution channel, then we see a promising picture for margins. The retail channel grew sales by 24% in constant currency, while wholesale and royalty income was up 9%.

Online retail remains an anomaly in this space, up 18% despite being tiny in comparison to the rest of the retail operation. I still don’t see much of a market for people spending a fortune on jewellery and timepieces online vs. in boutiques.

Ghost Bite: Clearly, the wealthiest people in the world are doing just fine, thanks. Importantly, they also seem willing to spend money in China. That’s a big deal for the luxury market, with Richemont closing 6.6% higher on the day.

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Luxury back in vogue?

Are you buying luxury stocks based on this?


Supermarket Income REIT is raising £100 million (R2.2 billion) for acquisitions (JSE: SRI)

They will be raising from a mix of institutional and retail investors – but not from South African retail investors, sadly

Supermarket Income REIT kept SENS nice and busy on Wednesday. They announced the acquisition of three supermarkets, as well as the terms of a capital raise to support that acquisition.

We begin with the acquisitions. Supermarket Income REIT will acquire a portfolio of three supermarkets for a total of £118 million. The average net initial yield is 6.9%.

These are triple-net leases, which means that the costs associated with maintenance etc. are borne by the tenant. This de-risks the property for the landlord, allowing them to focus on the optimal funding structure without variability in the underlying cash flows. The exception is if the tenant goes bankrupt, but tenants like Sainsbury’s and Tesco should be just fine.

The leases have inflation-linked rent reviews with caps and floors. Each lease is different of course. The floors range from 0% to 3%. The caps range from 4% to 5%.

Now, how will they pay for these properties that are expected to transfer in September this year?

First, I need to point out that the pipeline of acquisitions is actually much bigger than just these three properties.

Supermarket Income REIT has its eye on nine grocery assets for a total of £216 million. In addition to the aforementioned three assets, they are looking at five UK supermarkets and one distribution asset (i.e. a warehouse). In all cases, the tenants are investment grade grocery tenants, so the fund is doing exactly what is says on the tin.

To give further context to the extent of the portfolio, the company directly and indirectly has 131 supermarket assets across the UK and France. This includes the joint venture exposure, like the 50:50 venture with Blue Owl Capital. Buying nine properties is meaningful, but not ridiculous when seen as part of the bigger picture.

Like all good property funds, Supermarket Income REIT uses debt to try and juice up equity returns. They recently issued £250 million in unsecured bonds at a fixed rate of 5.125%. They recently refinanced £445 million in debt across six lenders. Even with these new transactions, the group loan-to-value ratio won’t exceed 45%.

Along with the use of debt, a raise of £100 million in equity will be enough to help the company pursue this pipeline. They are reserving the right to increase the size of the raise if demand is strong enough.

The raise will take the form of an accelerated bookbuild in both the UK and South Africa. There’s a retail offer as well, but only in the UK. South African retail investors aren’t being given a bite at this cherry, unfortunately.

Importantly, the issue isn’t underwritten by any major investors. In terms of insider activity, certain directors (including the CEO and CFO) will participate to the tune of around £0.18 million.

Ghost Bite: At least South African institutions are being given an opportunity to consider this raise. This is exactly why a fund like Supermarket Income REIT is listed on the JSE.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Afine Investments (JSE: AFI) announced that a few directors and related parties elected the dividend reinvestment option instead of receiving cash. The total value of the reinvestment across these parties was around R625k. It’s certainly not as strong a signal as an open-market purchase, but it’s still positive.
  • Newpark REIT (JSE: NRL) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a proposal that would allow shareholders to monetise some or all of their shares in the company. At this stage, there’s no guarantee that any such proposal will be finalised or implemented, hence the need for caution.
  • Eastern Platinum (JSE: EPS) has announced the appointment of David Li as the CFO. He has extensive experience in the mining sector, gained across multiple regions over the past two decades.
  • Numeral (JSE: XII) released a change statement that details multiple adjustments to the financials for the year ended February 2025. This is never a good look, although it was a complex year that included a recovered interest of 50% in Cryo-Save. There’s almost no trade in the stock anyway, so few people will really care about FY25. If anything, the focus will be on the financials for the year ended February 2026. The biotechnology and healthcare services segment saw revenue more than double to nearly $1.8 million. Operating profit more than tripled to $426k. Oddly, the group also has a financial services segment, where revenue more than tripled and profit increased tenfold to $141k. If this company wants the market to give it any attention, they will need to put much more effort into telling the story to investors.

Ghost Bites (Alphamin | Brait | Tharisa)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Alphamin continues to ride the tin wave
  • Brait, while promising a value unlock, is executing a rights offer to put more money into Virgin Active
  • Tharisa’s production metrics and projects are on track

Alphamin continues to ride the tin wave (JSE: APH)

It’s just a pity that sales volumes were flat

Alphamin has announced its Q2 EBITDA guidance. The way the company reports is that they release extremely detailed “guidance” for the quarter that just ended. They subsequently release detailed financials as well, but by then the market has already been given the most important information.

For the quarter ended June 2026, Alphamin achieved record EBITDA of $167 million, up 6% vs. the previous quarter. This is despite an almost perfectly flat outcome in contained tin sold, so this uplift is thanks primarily to a 5% increase in the average tin price achieved.

The dip in processing recoveries that led to the disappointing outcome in tin volumes will need to be managed carefully, but these risks are a feature of mining.

The net cash position has decreased from $140 million to $91 million after paying significant distributions to shareholders. There were also large amounts for taxes in this quarter.

Other than the usual risks of operating in the DRC, the company is also monitoring an Ebola outbreak in the northeastern part of the country. Thankfully, this hasn’t impacted the area in which the mine operates. As disease outbreaks go, I don’t think it gets much scarier than Ebola.

Ghost Bite: Tin prices have been boosted by demand for the commodity in AI applications. I’ve seen it referred to as “the metal of computing power” – a nice way to remember it. Alphamin’s total return over 12 months is an incredible 61%. On a year-to-date basis, the total return is 19.4%.


Brait, while promising a value unlock, is executing a rights offer to put more money into Virgin Active (JSE: BAT)

And no, there are no prizes available for guessing who one of the underwriters is

Brait has been one of the more disappointing stories on the JSE over almost any time period. They’ve had some bad luck along the way, like the impact of COVID on Virgin Active, but there have also been a number of other issues.

With the company promising a value unlock to shareholders, they are now taking the most unusual step of raising R2.5 billion in a rights offer. Usually, a value unlock means that money flows from the company to its investors, not the other way around!

Part of the justification is that the company needs to redeem the convertible bonds for £138 million. Fair enough. But the other reason is that Brait is throwing another £108 million at a Virgin Active capital raise of £175 million. This may well be the right thing to do in this situation, but unfortunately the group’s investment track record isn’t anything that a personal trainer would be proud of.

In case you’re wondering about the balancing figures, Brait also has access to an existing revolving credit facility, so they are just swapping one type of finance for another. They also have the net proceeds from the sale of shares in Premier (JSE: PMR), Brait’s shining success story (no sarcasm there – it’s a great business).

As is usually the case when Christo Wiese is involved in a company, the rights issue is being underwritten by Titan Financial Services. To be fair, at least this offer has other underwriters as well in the form of various asset managers. Shareholders are also able to apply for excess offer shares, so there are some elements to this structure that make it fairer to minority shareholders than is sometimes the case.

Underwriting never happens for free. The underwriters will be paid 1% of the aggregate offer price, or a cool R25 million.

Ghost Bite: Brait’s share price has been a rather bleak story. I’m glad I haven’t been invested here. The closest I get to Brait is contributing to their income statement via regular smoothies at Kauai.

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An unusual value unlock

Does this approach make sense from Brait?


Tharisa’s production metrics and projects are on track (JSE: THA)

As you would expect during a period of heavy capex, net cash has decreased

PGM and chrome miner Tharisa has released a production report for the third quarter ended June 2026. They believe that they can deliver their FY26 guidance based on the year-to-date performance.

Importantly, the underground project is on time and in line with budget at this stage. This is a major transition for Tharisa that should further improve the investment case for the group.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis (i.e. Q3 vs. Q2), PGM production was up by 15.5%. This was driven by a significant improvement in recoveries and a better weather environment vs. the preceding quarter. Chrome production dipped by 2.5%.

Commodity prices haven’t played ball lately, with the PGM basket price down in the past quarter. Tharisa, like all mining houses, has to try and invest on a through-the-cycle basis. When prices are particularly high, they bank the excess cash and thank their lucky stars. When prices are under pressure, they have to vasbyt and stick to the plan.

The underground project, as well as Karo Platinum, will put pressure on the capex budget and thus the balance sheet. Debt has increased significantly from $129.6 million at the end of March 2026 to $188.1 million at the end of June 2026. The net cash position has dropped from $54.7 million to $10.7 million.

Importantly though, they are still in a net cash position!

Ghost Bite: Tharisa’s share price is down 8.6% year-to-date thanks to the PGM sector blowing off some steam. The total return over three years is 46%. Mining cycles tend to be longer than that, but that’s a decent indication of strategic delivery to shareholders.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Bytes Technology (JSE: BYI) bought shares worth around R2.3 million. But this purchase was eclipsed by an independent non-executive director, who bought shares worth R9.3 million! It’s always very encouraging to see on-market purchases like these. Remember, VCP also recently bought a chunk of shares in Bytes. The share price is up 19% over 30 days and 14% year-to-date.
    • The CEO of Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) bought shares in the holding company worth R86k.
  • Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) announced that the mining contract for the Rietberg mine has been awarded to Cementation Africa, the mining business that emerged from the Murray & Roberts corporate collapse. The contract is worth R874 million and is structured as a “strategic alliance” – that certainly sounds a lot friendlier than many of the construction contracts that end in disputes and large claims. Let’s hope that this one goes smoothly. This is a significant step for Copper 360, particularly as the share price has suffered a catastrophic decline of 91% over three years.
  • Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) announced that the Competition Commission has approved the acquisition by Spear of the three office buildings at 1 Sportica Crescent, Bellville. Transfer is expected during September 2026.
  • Raubex (JSE: RBX) has renewed the cautionary related to the ongoing evaluation of strategic options related to the investment in Bauba Resources. My view is that they need to try get out of that asset entirely, as it isn’t a good fit with the rest of the group. Much easier said than done, of course!
  • Datatec (JSE: DTC) announced that the deal related to the refinancing of Westcon International and the investment in a minority stake by General Atlantic has been delayed by a few weeks. The closing date has moved from 14 July 2026 to 4 August 2026. A delay is not uncommon in corporate transactions.
  • Lewis (JSE: LEW) announced that Global Credit Ratings (GCR) updated its credit ratings to AA-(ZA) and A1+(ZA) for long- and short-term debt respectively. As lending money is core to the Lewis business model in furniture retail, having cheaper access to finance is extremely helpful for margins. Ratings upgrades don’t tell you anything about whether the shares are a good purchase at this price, but they sure do tell you a lot about the underlying financial health of the group.
  • I generally don’t comment on ongoing share repurchase programmes, but I’ll make an exception for Reinet (JSE: RNI) given the significance of their decision to return excess cash to investors. Between 6 July and 10 July 2026, they repurchased shares worth R582.6 million.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) has completed the eighth drill hole at the Kabwe Zinc Mine. The “Speaks” orebody seems to be returning better results than management anticipated, so that’s positive.
  • Master Drilling (JSE: MDI) has now received the necessary approval from the SARB for the special dividend of 40 cents per share. The payment date is 17 August 2026.
  • PPC (JSE: PPC) has beefed up its board with the appointment of a highly experienced banker as an independent non-executive director. Nick Pagden, who has served as Chairman of Banking South Africa at Citigroup since 2022, joins the board (and investment committee) with effect from 1 October 2026. I enjoy seeing skills like these on corporate boards.

The Finance Ghost Plugged in with Capitec: Entrepreneurship without excuses – the Planetworld story

In Season 2 of this podcast, The Finance Ghost talks to South African entrepreneurs about the ideas, choices and turning points behind building a business from scratch.

Listen to the podcast:

From humble beginnings selling Bluetooth car kits to building Planetworld into a diversified importer and distributor of 78 global brands, Planetworld co-founder and CEO Maurice van Heerden shares a refreshingly honest view of what it takes to scale a business. 

In this episode, Maurice shares why culture and curating a team of winners are key to thriving in South Africa’s tough market. While the product range varies from musical instruments and pro audio to smart home tech and consumer electronics, the foundation of this business is its people. 

Episode 3 covers:  

  • How Planetworld grew from a small family business into a distributor across multiple industries
  • Why focusing on what you can control is critical in volatile markets
  • Building a culture that celebrates trying (and failing) rather than not trying at all
  • The role of people, partnerships and saying ‘no’ in scaling a business
  • Why most entrepreneurs underestimate the 20-year journey
  • The power of understanding your client deeply and owning that relationship
  • Expansion ambitions across Africa and beyond
  • Lessons from Capitec, Netflix and other culture-driven success stories
  • Why entrepreneurship isn’t for everyone

The Finance Ghost plugged in with Capitec is made possible by the support of Capitec Business. All the entrepreneurs featured on this podcast are clients of Capitec. Capitec is an authorised Financial Services Provider, FSP number 46669.

Read the transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of The Finance Ghost Plugged in with Capitec, where I get to chat to some really interesting South African business owners and understand more about their journey to get to where they are today.  

In this episode, I am thoroughly looking forward to speaking to someone who is no stranger to the audio world and podcasting. It’s quite rare that I get to chat to someone who has a better microphone than me, better headphones than me and a lovely Shure background there.  

That is Maurice Van Heerden, co-founder and CEO of Planet World. Maurice, thank you so much for doing this. I can’t wait to chat. I actually know a fair bit about this industry based on my upbringing and my dad having been in this industry forever.  

So, lots and lots of cool nostalgic memories of going to music stores, helping to deliver stuff; really growing up in an entrepreneurial household in this space. Thank you for doing this. It’s great to have you. 

Maurice Van Heerden: Thanks. Appreciate it. Yeah, it’s really great to be here and share our story and looking forward to a great conversation. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. So, let’s dive straight in. We are all very accustomed to hearing about how tough it is to grow a business in South Africa. As an importer and a distributor of products, as Planet World is, you really do have to deal with so much of the tricky stuff, right?   

You’ve got to deal with the rand, which jumps around all over the place. It’s been better recently, but we all know how hard it’s been over the years. Delays at the ports, import tariffs. It’s really a Venn diagram of so many things that make it difficult in South Africa, and yet here you are.  

I think just to set the scene, give us an overview of the Planet World business, so people know what you’ve built; and maybe just some more context to the journey over what is essentially two decades, right?  

Maurice Van Heerden: 18 years ago I was a schoolteacher in the UK. My brother was working with a small business called Planet Electronics, and he convinced me to come back.  

Collectively with my two brothers and my father, we bought the business. And at the time, they were selling Bluetooth car kits and parking sensors. That’s kind of where the journey started.  

But today we’re a pretty significant importer across several different industries. We have roughly 200 staff across our different locations in the country (we have four). We supply roughly 3,000 customers on a monthly basis. And we do that across a bunch of different verticals.  

So, the first is the one that you’re close to, which is musical instruments. We have a big portfolio of musical instruments that we supply across music stores. We then also have a pro audio division, which is essentially any large-format sound.  

So, if you think of the sound that goes into a stadium, into a concert arena, into a house of worship, or into the education sector, into schools and so on, any large gathering of people, the audio and heavy equipment required for those is what we import and distribute.  

We also have a residential business. If you think of any high-end home audio, home automation and lighting and security, we have a business that services those needs.  

And then we have a very strong retail business where we have recently mostly focused on audio, but we’re also starting to focus increasingly on consumer electronics, especially smart products around smart cleaning and so on that we import and distribute to retailers across the country.  

And then lastly, we’ve got an automotive business. The automotive business is actually how we started. Back in 2008, we started importing infotainment systems for vehicles, and that’s really how the business got on its feet. 

Today we’re the largest importer of car audio. We import six or seven leading international brands and distribute those across retailers and fitment centres and dealerships in the country. We’re very diversified, and we work through a lot of complexity.  

But I suppose to your point, to give you a very simple answer of how we deal with the complexity, and certainly the outside influences, is that I really just don’t care. I don’t really think about it.  

All sorts of things like currency fluctuations and import tariffs and duties are totally out of our control. And so, as a business, we try and focus on the things that we can control. We are all subject to this, and all the competition that we have in the market are all subject to the same challenges, and they’re totally out of our control. So, wasting any of our time being concerned about them seems like a waste of time to me.  

The things that we can control, of course, are great customer service. We’ve got 3,000 customers that buy from us on a monthly basis. And these are businesses, so they require our products and services to survive. We take the customer experience really seriously.  

We also take our people really seriously. And we try and create an environment that’s fun and challenging and exciting, where people really belong and feel like they’re achieving something.  

And then, of course, we have great relationships with suppliers, and we manage those closely, and we work very closely with our suppliers to develop the South African market.  

And so those are things within our control, and that’s kind of what we focus on.  

We also really cherry-pick the brands that we work with. So, we’re very fortunate to be in a position that we are a desired distributor by international suppliers. We say no a lot more often than we say yes. 

In order for us to take on a product, we need to really love the product. Our values need to align with the supplier. We need to feel that the product really is leading in its market and that they’re really progressive and building a great business we can piggyback off.  

And, of course, that our values align as a business, that we know this is a partner for the long term, and we enter into that partnership with the best potential outcomes for both them and for us. Those are the things that we can focus on. And that’s really what our energy goes into. 

The Finance Ghost: Love it. There’s so much cool stuff in there. This is exactly why entrepreneurship is so exciting, right? Because when you go and read about the biggest companies in South Africa, they will so often blame the economy for slow growth.  

And half of it is true, because it is very hard to grow at that size if the economy is not in your favour. But some of it is just a cop-out by listed company executives, as opposed to people who need to eat what they kill, right? Like entrepreneurs. That’s part of why entrepreneurs are just so great.  

And it’s exactly as you’ve described it there. It’s focusing on what you can control, not being hamstrung by all of the external reasons why something won’t work. Obviously, you have to be careful. There’s no point in running into a burning building and thinking that it’s going to work out well. But if you just do the right stuff over time, then you’ll get there as you’ve done, which is fantastic.  

It’s two decades almost – about 18 years I think you said. And it is amazing to me how often I’ve seen it in my advisory career. Even now speaking to entrepreneurs, two decades seems to be the amount of time it takes for a business to really become a settled thing of value, that can exist beyond the original founder.  

It seems to take that long. I’m not sure what it is about that length of time. I’m only in year six of The Finance Ghost. So, I don’t know yet. But if you think back on your two-decade journey, what do you think it is that makes it take that long?  

And maybe as part of that, you can also just speak to the people around you. You’ve spoken about this team of winners, but it sounds like there are other execs involved, there are co-founders. What does that journey really look like for you? 

Maurice Van Heerden: This is by no means a one-man enterprise. As I mentioned, we’re a team of roughly 200 people. We’ve got an executive team; we’ve got quite an extensive management team.  

I do think, and I can only speak for my instance, the reality is when you start the business, you’re typically naive and quite stupid, to be totally honest. You don’t really know the levers that you can pull to make your business successful. You screw it up a lot. And I could tell you countless stories of things that I’ve screwed up, but it’s part of the journey.  

Something that’s potentially a personality trait, not something that I think you necessarily can learn (maybe you can, but in my experience, you either have this in your personality, or you don’t), is to not have this fear of failing. And by failing, I don’t mean mass failure and the entire business closes, and you have to sell your house and live on the street.  

What I mean is trying things and then being so pessimistic that you want certainty of the outcome. And so in fact, what you don’t do is try. You rather just kind of stay within your safety net. 

I think that’s a personality trait that’s consistent with entrepreneurs in general – they’re not afraid to try.  

In fact, we’ve got an internal culture document. One of the things about maturing over time is that in the early days, I never even thought about culture, what kind of business we wanted to be and how we wanted people to perceive us. And if we as a business took a look in the mirror, what did we want to see? I never even thought about that. It didn’t even cross my mind.  

But one of the things that we have now, we’ve got like a Planetworld standards document. And one of the standards is that we celebrate failure. And hidden in that sentence is that what we are really hard on is not trying. Never in this team at Planetworld are people punished for failure. Where people are taken to task is when they don’t try.  

And so, I’d much rather have a team of people that are constantly pushing the edge and trying new things and trying to approach problem-solving in a unique and different way and screwing it up. I’d much rather have that than a team of people that are hiding behind a computer and not trying to solve the complex problems, because the reality is somebody else is going to solve them and then you’re stuck behind.  

But this all sounds like wisdom now, but it has taken 20 years to get to the point where I and my executive team and management team are very, very clear about these things. And we’ve got a very clear culture and dynamic and way that we work that really works within our industry and within our business.  

When you’re young or when you’re just starting, it’s very difficult to know those things. To some degree, that’s where people will lean on mentors or their formal education for guidance. But in reality, the real world is a lot more complex, and it’s a lot more challenging and difficult. And you will have to take on challenges that no university can prepare you for.  

And I think this inherent non-fear of failure is probably the strongest quality that you can have.  

To speak to your point of the 20 years, as you mature as a business, you start to figure out what you’re really good at and what you’re not so good at. And you start to lean into the things that you’re really, really good at. And me as a leader in the business, it’s also very important for me to know what I’m not good at.  

There are certain things that I’m good at, but there’s a hell of a lot that I’m really, really not good at. And over time, I’ve managed to bring people in not only as management and as executives, but also as owners in the business who are really, really good at the things that I’m not good at.  

I’m a big-thinking guy. I love risk, love the next big opportunity. I’m hugely optimistic about the world around me, and I see success everywhere. But unfortunately, life doesn’t work like that. So, I need people around me that will also just ground me and give me the realities and lean into the facts and the data so that I can make strong decisions for the business.  

And I’ve been very lucky that I’ve got a team of absolute rock stars around me. We all complement one another, but inherently we all have this same very ambitious drive to win. 

That’s really what the foundation of this business is. Whether we sold toilet paper or musical instruments, we would be successful at it because of our drive and our culture and the way that we work. 

The Finance Ghost: Again, so much wisdom in there, which is fantastic. I love that reference to fear of failure. And like you say, it’s not enormous, life-changing, life-ruining failure, like I’ve lost everything. Everyone should be fearful of that, clearly. But I do agree with you that if you are a risk-taking person, you’ve just got a way better chance of cracking it as an entrepreneur.  

And there’s nothing wrong with this, but if your idea of success is to go and have this very long career in one place and you kind of work your way up the ladder and everything – sometimes I’m jealous of those people because it strikes me as a simpler life. Look, I’m sure you’ve had these moments as well where you look at what you’re doing, you’re like, why am I like this? Why is this inside me? You know? [Laughs]. 

Maurice Van Heerden: It’s also a very boring life, in my opinion. I agree with you. Some people find comfort in predictability and security.  

The first thing I say to any senior person that’s coming into our business, and sometimes it scares very talented people off. But I always say, if you’re joining Planetworld because you’re looking for job security, please don’t come.  

And I say that because we’re not the type of business that offers job security. What we offer is a lot of freedom to solve very complex challenges in your own way and to be super creative about how you do it. That’s what we offer. So, when you work here, you’ll be very challenged. 

You will get a lot of freedom, be given a lot of responsibility, and of course with that, some expectation. And if that excites you, then brilliant.  

But it doesn’t excite everybody. Then I always say, well, I’m sure you could find a job at ABSA because you probably work there for 30 years and do well, climb the corporate ladder slowly. This is not that kind of place. And I don’t think any entrepreneurial, truly entrepreneurial environment is like that. I just don’t think it works. 

The Finance Ghost: No, absolutely. Look, just to be clear, you know, the reference to ABSA there is not because of who’s sponsoring this podcast. It’s really just corporates that have that slightly older-school culture. And it is like job security, safety. There are a lot of people who crave that. To be honest, I think most people crave that.  

And it’s really just this crazy few who want to go out there and disrupt and do these things. And maybe that’s why you bank with Capitec hey? Because that DNA is firmly there, based on the experience I’ve had. 

Maurice Van Heerden: We do an annual management get-together. And in that get-together, we look at the year ahead and some of what our big audacious goals are. And last year I actually presented the Capitec story as part of our executive session.  

I’d been at a talk at Capitec a few months before. Then I was absolutely blown away by the way that they’ve managed to build this business of enormous scale, yet retain this loose entrepreneurial style, which is very, very uncommon, and especially in banks.  

Banks by their very nature are quite rigid. They’re complex businesses. Yet Capitec was this extremely entrepreneurial start-up kind of environment, but in a very significant big bank. And they’ve since extended that into business banking. Obviously we bank with them and very proud to be banking with them.  

But another good example would be Netflix, which also retains – a lot of our culture stuff is really just plagiarised from Netflix. You can build significant businesses that perform by all the measures that you would be expected to and yet retain this very loose entrepreneurial style of doing business, where you’ve got great people that are all working towards a common cause.  

And because you’ve got great people, you don’t have to create a thousand rules to protect yourself from the stupid people [laughs] because you don’t have any. You’ve got real talent in your business that’s super ambitious. And that’s very much something that we’ve tried to imitate. 

The Finance Ghost: Oh, I love that. That’s very, very good. I actually have TJ Strydom’s book on Capitec on my desk. And I always remind myself what I took from that book was if you just focus on the thing you’re really good at and you focus long term on it, you can do exceptionally well.  

Every entrepreneur at some point doubts themselves and goes, “Oh, I need to do 100 other things. Maybe I should go into this or go into that.” – or it’s a slow month or whatever. You’ve just got to keep that true north.  

Yours sounds like culture, actually, above all else. I was going to ask you with all these product categories and your finger in so many pies and yes, audio is the thing that just brings it all together. 

What actually brings it all together maybe is just the culture, actually. Maybe that’s what makes Planetworld so interesting. You could almost sell anything. As you say, look, you’re selling cool stuff. I mean, let’s call a spade a spade. Musical instruments, audio, those epic home systems. Very fun products.  

But it’s the culture, right? That’s actually what ties it all together. It’s not the product range. 

Maurice Van Heerden:  I believe so. So early on it’s very difficult to establish yourself as a recognised distributor in South Africa. Especially when you don’t have large amounts of capital behind you, which we didn’t have. I was a schoolteacher and my brother was a waiter.  

So, it takes a lot of time and a lot of hard work to get going. But once you have a little bit of a name for yourself, you just need that one product that retailers like, or the one product that has quite a lot of demand in the market that kind of sets you off on a journey.  

But now we distribute 78 global brands. I would be very surprised if there are any distributors in the country that do more than that. And the thing that allows us to deal with the complexity and allows us to deal with all the different industries, is that our culture remains the same throughout, and they are also very different industries.  

You come from a musical instruments background. That’s guys with ponytails and Led Zeppelin T-shirts; relaxed. And there’s a certain way that they communicate with each other. There’s a whole vibe about that industry. 

The Finance Ghost: In my dad’s case, it was an Afro and Led Zeppelin T-shirt straight out of the 70s. It’s amazing. Those photos make me happy. 

Maurice Van Heerden: I can see where the afro comes from! [laughs] So that’s one industry. But on the other side we do pro AV business, so we basically service corporate South Africa with all of their boardroom solutions, video conferencing equipment and so on. And that’s stiff. I always say that’s pointy shoes and button-up shirts.  

We at Planetworld maintain this – we’ve got a very casual, loose style. When somebody from our business turns up, it’ll likely be in a cool, unique-design Planetworld T-shirt and jeans and a pair of Jordans or something. They will be a highly competent person that’s genuinely interested in delivering the best value for you as humanly possible.  

A high level of integrity – they’re not there to siphon money off you. They’re there to give you the best possible solution that we can give. But they are going to be very ambitious. They’re going to push you to be ambitious about your project and your plan. That’s what translates across all the industries.  

Industries that are typically one way or another way. What people really care about is doing business with people that are honest and truly want what’s best for them. Doing it to a high degree, and a high standard, and knowing that when the proverbial hits the fan, I’ve got somebody that’s going to support me and have my back.  

That’s the culture that we drive throughout the business. And I think we could sell toilet paper, cosmetics, I think we could sell anything because that universal truth is true, no matter what it is that we’re selling. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s so interesting. And the route to market here is also fascinating because you spoke earlier about your dealer base. Very important to you. That’s how you get these products out broadly. You’d never have the capital to go and open all of those places yourself. It just wouldn’t make sense.  

But you’ve also got these experience centres, which is obviously where you have invested. So, from the outside looking in, my guess would be that there are certain products that you need people to see and touch, in an environment that is more controlled, hence the experience centres.  

And then there’s other products where people can see and touch them adequately in a music store or in a car audio store or whatever the case may be. Is that how you choose what gets an experience centre and what doesn’t? 

Maurice Van Heerden: We have two different methodologies at play. One is our retail business, where we supply hundreds of retailers around the country with equipment. And so, the retailer is the showroom.  

We create a beautiful point of sale or demonstration within a retail store. And they, of course, have feet walking through there throughout the week. And people get to experience our products in the way that they should. That is by far the easier way.  

The second part of our business we call project-based business. So, it’s relatively long-pipeline business. And a good example would be if you were building a home and you know that you want a relatively high level of AV equipment throughout the home, and you want it to disappear into the home (so you don’t want freestanding speakers and things all around the house).  

So now it becomes a project. And so, at the stage when your architect’s designing the home, he needs to meet with somebody to go and design all of these elements into his drawings. And that’s really where the journey starts on a project like that.  

But in order to do that, the end user or the homeowner needs to see, well, what’s the finished picture going to be if I invest all this money? And that’s quite difficult to showcase.  

So, what we’ve done is we’ve created these experience centres where we basically tell the story. We become your imagination of what is possible in your home, at your church, at your school, in your boardroom, and we sort of paint that whole story.  

And at the point at which the end consumer and the architect want to start looking at what’s available, they would then come to our offices and get a full demonstration from very entry-level equipment all the way up to the ultimate experience. And that’s why we created these facilities.  

They’re hugely expensive, they’re difficult to manage. If you looked at them purely on a P&L, you would tell me I’m crazy. The intended consequence, is, of course, to create more business. The unintended consequence is that customers love spending time in our offices because they’re beautiful, they’ve got all this equipment.  

And we increasingly get businesses that genuinely just want to do business with us because they just love our facilities and our approach and that we’ve got this incredible showroom that absolutely blows them away. And on the first interaction they go, “Wow. I just – I’ve never seen anything like this. I want to be part of this”.  

And that’s the intangible benefit of building these facilities. I would say the last thing is that it really inspires our teams because it keeps them on the cutting edge of what is possible in these different environments. And also, they’re super proud of what we build and how we execute from an experience level.  

So, there’s a lot of financial reasons to do it, but solely those don’t entirely make sense. There are also just cultural reasons to do it. It really entrenches you in these industries and they’ve been hugely successful for us. And in fact, we start our next renovation in our showroom on Monday. So here we go again. 

The Finance Ghost: So, Maurice, you’ve shared so many excellent, excellent stories here and insights into how to actually build a business like this. I love the point on culture, and building this culture of winners, I think that comes through 100%, and the business is a winner. So clearly it works.  

But it’s all about the future, right? I think any entrepreneur tends to focus on the future rather than where we’ve come from. Very few entrepreneurs I meet sit there and pat themselves on the back for what they’ve done. They’re always looking ahead. It’s just what makes us entrepreneurs.  

So, as you look ahead over the next few years, what is the next big step for the business? What is going to make a really big difference to the extent, obviously, you’re willing to talk about it publicly. What’s the big dream here? 

Maurice Van Heerden: I’m 42, I’m very early in my career and very, very excited about the future for the business. At the position we are in now, we’re really like a 100-metre athlete who’s prepared for the Olympics and the tournament’s now starting.  

We’re well conditioned, we’re in fantastic shape. Our diet’s right, our mindset is right, and really, we’re ready to sort of jump and go and win the opportunity that we see in the market for sure. We’re very, very good at telling brand stories. What we’ve done particularly in our retail business is we’ve become very, very good at speaking to high-income groups.  

So, if you think across our brand portfolio, we distribute a brand called Sonos, which eight years ago nobody really knew what it was. Today it’s by far the largest premium audio brand in the country.  

Through that process, we know where those high-end consumers shop, we know what their activity online is, we know what kind of influencers and advocates they follow. We know so much about that consumer, and so really our sort of next five years is about owning that customer to an extent.  

So, the products and services that these customers, medium- to high-net-worth income homes require, is really the gap that we want to fill. And so, we’re constantly looking for international brands that appeal to these customers, and we know exactly how to take those brands to market. So that’s one end that we’re very focused on.  

We’ve recently launched a consumer electronics brand called Roborock, which is a premium floor-care business, totally out of our audio wheelhouse. But they’re the largest manufacturer of robotic vacuum cleaners in the world. And it’s been an enormous success.  

And the reason it’s been an enormous success is because we know exactly how to reach the customer in a way that they are comfortable, and they trust our communications and so on. And so, we’re looking to add more product to that portfolio.  

And really the only guiding principle for us is that it needs to appeal to a mid- to high-end type of customer. And two is it needs to be really technology driven.  

So, we’re really, really interested in robotics, we’re interested in AI, we’re interested in products that are saving people time, making life easier and that are sexy.  

And the second thing I will say is that across our project-based business is that we’ve got very big ambitions to expand into Africa. So, we do quite a lot of business, probably 5% of our revenue to 8% of our revenue, is in Africa now. We want that to be 50% over the next five years. And Africa is a difficult place to do business, right?  

It’s difficult for South Africans to do business in Africa, but it’s particularly difficult for the US or the East to do business in Africa. So, we want to be that gateway of taking brands into Africa as these markets are developing and growing, that we really establish ourselves at the forefront of bringing technology into particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. 

The Finance Ghost: I love that, Maurice. Well done. That’s a really cool strategy. And a lot of the people listening to this podcast and reading Ghost Mail would definitely be in your high-income category where they’ve got some pretty cool setups at home.  

So I would encourage you, if you are listening to this, it’s time to, shall we say, upgrade your leisure space. Go and check out planetworld.co.za, reach out. Check out the experience centre. It sounds very, very cool.  

And Maurice, from my side, just congratulations and thank you for sharing such an upbeat description of what it’s like to actually build something like this over 20 years. It’s very clear that you have had, and are still having a lot of fun and, like you say, you’re still early in the journey.  

So, I’m slightly jealous of the people who get to work with you because I think it sounds like a very cool culture and those cultures are hard to find.  

And all the best. It’ll be very nice to actually just stay in touch and see how the thing progresses because I think it’s going to go very far. So well done. 

Maurice Van Heerden: Awesome, Ghost. I appreciate it. It was a real pleasure. 

Ghost Bites (Mantengu | Northam Platinum | Purple Group | Schroder European Real Estate | Spear REIT)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Mantengu may have locked in a profit on the iron beneficiation plant
  • Northam Platinum met or exceeded guidance for key metrics
  • Purple Group reaches for the Telescope with a spicy acquisition
  • It’s time to put Schroder European Real Estate out of its misery
  • Spear REIT locks in a tidy return on two properties

Mantengu may have locked in a profit on the iron beneficiation plant (JSE: MTU)

It all depends on how the next year pans out

Mantengu has announced the disposal of the iron beneficiation plant in Limpopo for R50 million. Having bought the asset little more than a year ago in February 2025, they are locking in a profit on disposal of R33.5 million!

It’s not quite that simple, as only R20 million of the price is payable immediately. The remaining R30 million becomes payable when the iron plant achieves “commissioning” – which they define as the plant achieving not less than 75% of its full capacity for three consecutive months.

Weirdly, the purchaser will have 12 months to achieve that status. If they don’t, then the R30 million lapses. That doesn’t feel like the right incentive to me, but presumably the underlying scenario analysis checks out.

An important element of the deal is that Mantengu will have the ability to construct additional iron plants globally under a licence agreement. This may become useful down the line, especially if the Averi transaction goes ahead.

Ghost Bite: There’s absolutely no guarantee that the R30 million will go through. If it doesn’t, then Mantengu got their money back on this asset and some change. But if it does, then they’ve locked in a juicy little profit here!


Northam Platinum met or exceeded guidance for key metrics (JSE: NPH)

It’s just a pity that PGM prices have let them down

Northam Platinum released a production update for the year ended June 2026.

They came in ahead of guidance on key metrics including total equivalent refined metal produced from own operations, equivalent refined metal purchased from third parties, total chrome concentrate produced and sold, as well as total 4E metal sold. A mouthful, I know. But all four of those metrics achieved record levels in this period, so they deserve a mention.

Other production metrics were all within guidance, driven by a solid performance across the group’s operations. This includes the ramp-up at Eland, which is proceeding on schedule.

On the PGM side, refined metal sales were up 10%. In chrome, total concentrate production was up 17.4%.

Ghost Bite: Production performance is the primary measure of a management team’s performance in the mining sector. They can’t control commodity prices, but they can control production. Despite Northam putting in a solid operational performance, the ugly correction in the PGM sector means that the price is down 30% year-to-date.


Purple Group reaches for the Telescope (JSE: PPE)

Vertical integration is coming at quite the price

Purple Group now boasts 1.3 million active clients and over R100 billion in assets on its platform. The group has done a spectacular job of scaling to this size, which is exactly why I’m a happy investor.

It’s worth pointing out that I avoided the COVID-era hype entirely though, choosing to time my entry based on when Purple Group was under pressure. They had lost their “darling” status, and the market had turned its attention elsewhere. Those are excellent ingredients for a successful entry.

My average purchase price is R1.06 vs. the current price of R1.72, a gain of 61%.

Purple has been focused on organic growth and allowing the platform to do its thing. Cross-selling has been the order of the day. I personally think that the platform has become too cluttered now, so I hope they don’t lose the “Easy” part of EasyEquities. For now at least, the numbers look fantastic and people seem to be more active than ever on the platform.

To augment this growth story, Purple has announced the acquisition of 100% of Telescope AI.

Telescope provides investment research and compliance infrastructure to platforms including IG Group, tastytrade and EasyEquities, among others. They already reach over 3 million end users across 7 jurisdictions. The compliance offering, Guardrails, has completed more than 2.5 million checks across global jurisdictions.

In other words, Purple is vertically integrating here and moving further up the value chain. Interesting.

The total price is up to $10.75 million, with $7 million payable upfront and $3.75 million payable on a deferred basis. Goodwill is the order of the day here, as Telescope NAV is just AUD494k (around $340k!) and the attributable loss after tax for the six months to February 2026 was AUD88k ($61k).

The more interesting metric would be to see what EasyEquities is currently paying to Telescope each year. By owning the company, Purple is essentially bringing that spend in-house. But even then, I suspect that you would need an actual telescope to see how high this valuation multiple is.

Of the $7 million initial payment, $5 million will be paid in cash and $2 million will be settled by issuing Purple shares at the 30-day VWAP as at the closing date.

Then, of the $3.75 million deferred amount, $2.75 million will be split into five annual instalments of $550k. Each instalment will be reduced by the extent to which the operating cash outflow of Telescope exceeds $250k per year. The net instalment can be settled in cash or shares.

The remaining $1 million deferred payment will be based on the achievement of certain milestones by Telescope AI within five years. Again, this can be settled in cash or shares.

I would love to see the underlying agreements around what the buyers can and can’t do with Telescope. It would make zero sense for the sellers to simply allow the buyers to avoid deferred payments by investing in the business and ensuring that it is operating cash flow negative. I must tell you that I’ve seen huge loopholes in many a transaction though, so anything is possible here.

Ghost Bite: This is a Category 2 transaction, so shareholders won’t be asked to vote. There also isn’t a transaction circular. If there was a vote, I suspect that there would be a lot of questions asked about the valuation. With the market cap of R2.45 billion, at least Purple Group isn’t betting the farm here.

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Purple Group's vertical strategy

What are your thoughts on this acquisition?

Errata: the first version of Ghost Bites this morning noted that Purple is buying 50% of Telescopic. My apologies for misreading the announcement. I’ve corrected this Bite to reflect that they are buying 100%.


It’s time to put Schroder European Real Estate out of its misery (JSE: SCD)

The valuation is just getting worse

Schroder European Real Estate intends to wind down the company. In many ways, they would simply be putting it out of its misery.

The recent story has been anything but happy, with Schroder suffering disappointing property returns and dealing with huge tax headaches as well.

Things aren’t getting any better unfortunately. The latest portfolio update reflects a decline in value of 3.9% over the past quarter. Aside from yield pressure, there are also more conservative assumptions around investment demand for secondary offices. Some of the industrial assets have also moved the wrong way.

Ghost Bite: It really has been a horrible story, with a total return over 5 years of just 12.7%!


Spear REIT locks in a tidy return on two properties (JSE: LAB)

This has worked out beautifully for them

Spear REIT has finalised the disposal of Hamilton House and Chiappini House, both of which are situated in De Waterkant, Cape Town. Spear originally acquired these properties in October 2024 as part of the broader deal to acquire the Western Cape portfolio from Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI).

Spear originally paid R80.75 million for the properties. They are now selling them less than two years later for a disposal price of R108 million. That’s a 34% return over two years – a seriously impressive outcome!

Apart from the obvious financial benefit of this disposal, it also has strategic benefits in the form of simplifying Spear’s portfolio and reducing the fund’s exposure to smaller, decentralised office assets.

Ghost Bite: This is yet another reason why I leave property management to the experts. I’ll stick to buying REITs and investing in these management teams, rather than doing buy-to-let myself. I can’t see myself finding a property that can give me a capital return of 34% in two years.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) bought ordinary shares in the company. Unlike his other recent purchases, this is at group level in the holding company itself, rather than preferred shares in one of the underlying investments.
  • Italtile (JSE: ITE) is looking for a new CEO of major subsidiary Ceramic Industries. Lance Foxcroft, who also previously served as group CEO, is taking early retirement. The reason provided is that the travel demands between Australia and South Africa are simply too great. As an interim measure, group CEO Brandon Wood will assume oversight responsibility for Ceramic Industries. The group has commenced a process to appoint a Head of Manufacturing to look after that side of the group.
  • AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) is trying to persuade shareholders to vote in favour of a proposed repurchase programme of up to $2 billion. The sticking point seems to be the tenure of the authority, with AngloGold obviously looking for as much flexibility as possible (up to five years). Proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholders Services has recommended that shareholders vote against the programme, as their belief is that it should be limited to 18 months. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
  • Afine Investments (JSE: ANI) announced the results of the dividend reinvestment alternative. Investors were able to reinvest up to 25% of their dividend in new shares. The end result is that R5 million in new shares will be issued and a cash dividend of R16.7 million will be paid by the company.
  • Araxi Limited (JSE: AXX) announced that Michael Pimstein will transition from Executive Chairman to Non-Executive Chairman. He is one of the four founders of the business, so this is an important step in the broader succession plan of the group.
  • African Media Entertainment (JSE: AME) announced that a company called Trucha Limited has increased its stake from 7.70% to 10.09%. I can’t find anything particularly useful about Trucha online.

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