Friday, July 10, 2026
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VIDEO: Why credit ratings matter | Why REITs raise capital so easily

The recently launched Ghost Bites podcast brings you an audio supplement to the daily Ghost Bites that you know and love in Ghost Mail. This gives me an opportunity to expand on certain topics in detail, while bringing in the results of the poll as well.

This edition of Ghost Bites makes sense of these SENS announcements:

  • Fitch upgrades the credit ratings of several local banks
  • Hyprop initially announces a R500 million capital raise, but raises R739 million in the end

Always do your own advice and speak to your financial advisor before making any investments. The Finance Ghost may hold positions in any of these stocks at time of recording or subsequently.

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Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Capitec Bank has entered into an agreement with Sasfin Capital to dispose of Capitec Rental Finance (CRF), a business it acquired in 2019 as part of its acquisition of Mercantile Bank. CRF provides asset financing solutions for businesses across various industries. The disposal consideration is R201 million. Concurrent with the disposal, Capitec Bank will provide a secured credit facility of R1,6 billion to CRF to fund the ongoing rental receivables book.

Accelerate Property Fund has reached an agreement with CFAO Mobility Properties to dispose of the BMW Fourways motor dealership and the land on which the dealership is built in a transaction valued at R220 million. The proceeds will be applied to the reduction of debt.

Numeral has made an undisclosed strategic investment into WestMed, a healthcare platform based in the Western Cape. WestMed operates primary healthcare clinics, specialist medical practices, aesthetic medicine, advanced surgical services and regenerative medicine capabilities. The company also announced the exit of its investments in Longevity and Isopharm due to the inability to secure timely operational and financial information from the founder for purposes of consolidation.

Warsaw-headquartered Globe Trade Centre has, via its 70%-held subsidiary Euro Structor, entered into an agreement to dispose of Avenue Mall, a shopping and office centre located in the Novi Zagreb district in Croatia for a purchase consideration of c.€98 million.

Mantengu, which is currently subject to exclusivity arrangements in favour of Afresources Mining, has received an unsolicited conditional offer to acquire the entire issued share capital of Blue Ridge for an aggregate cash purchase consideration greater than the Afresources’ offer of R50 million.

Hammerson has divested of non-core assets to the value of £75 million during 2026. The proceeds will be allocated to balance sheet strengthening and recycling into existing assets and new opportunities at attractive yields. To this point the company recently completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the Dublin ILAC Centre.

The disposal announced in May 2026 by MAS plc of six Romanian open-air malls to AFI Europe was completed on 8 July 2026. The category 2 transaction was valued at €197,7 million (R3,78 billion).

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is to acquire the South African downstream business from Shell. The deal includes 580 fuel stations and Shell South Africa’s wholesale, aviation and lubricant businesses. The transaction has an implied enterprise value of US$1 billion. As part of the transaction, ADNOC will sell a 28% stake in the local business to a BEE party.

HyperDev, a South African AI coding platform has raised US$1 million in pre-seed funding from venture capital investors in Europe and the UK. The funding will support the continued development of its AI coding platform which is designed to assist developers and non-technical users to build software more efficiently. Launched earlier this year, HyperDev platform already has some 100,000 users.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Hyprop Investments has successfully raised R738,9 million in an accelerated bookbuild – up from the initial R500 million target announced. The company will issue 12,631,505 new shares, the maximum it is authorised to issue, at a price of R58.50 per share. The issue price represents a 1.4% premium to the 30-day VWAP of R57.71 per share on 7 July 2026. The proceeds will be used to fund new and organic growth opportunities both locally and offshore.

Novus has acquired an additional 440 Mustek shares at R14.90 per share on the open market (outside of the Mandatory Offer) for R6,556. The company now holds 29,02 million Mustek shares constituting 50.44% of the issued shares in Mustek. Together with concert parties this shareholding increases to c.70.73%.

In October 2025 Sebata’s trading on the JSE was suspended due to the failure to publish its audited financial results for the year ended 31 March 2025. The company has brought its financial reporting fully up to date with the publication of its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2025. As a result, its suspension was lifted on 9 July 2026.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Reinet Investments intends to purchase its ordinary shares at market value for an aggregate maximum amount of €500 million subject to a maximum of 16.5 million ordinary shares over a period up to the 2027 Annual General Meeting of the Company. The implementation will be through several successive and separate programmes and shares will not be cancelled. The Rupert family has declared its intention not to sell any shares during the duration of this Programme. This week Reinet acquired 481,749 shares on the JSE for an aggregate R215 million.

To reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders, Quilter commenced, in March 2026, a £100 million share buyback programme. Repurchases to date total £40 million of which £32 million were conducted on the LSE and £8 million were conducted on the JSE. The maximum aggregate purchase price payable by the Company under Tranche 2 is up to C.£30 million. During the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, Quilter repurchased 5,750,565 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £11,19 million and 1,715,374 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R72,84 million.

In June, Greencoat Renewables announced its intention to commence a second tranche of the repurchase programme which will return a further €25m of capital to shareholders, following the completion of the first tranche which is expected during July. The second tranche repurchase will be complete by end-December 2026. This week 948,720 shares were repurchased for an aggregate €722,652.

Bytes Technology announced in May 2026 its intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million. This week the company repurchased 350,799 shares at an average price per share of £3.88 for an aggregate £1,35 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. All shares repurchased will be cancelled. Over the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, the company repurchased a further 477,743 shares at an average price of £46.53 per share for an aggregate £22,2 million.

Ninety One plc announced an increase in the repurchase programme from £30 million to £55 million to be completed by 21 July 2026. The shares, to be purchased on the open market, will be cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 1,242,934 ordinary shares at an average price 211 pence for an aggregate £2,63 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, the group repurchased 521,7054 shares for €37,68 million.

During the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,218,033 Prosus shares for an aggregate €84,23 million and Naspers, a further 898,420 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R737,68 million.

Four companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Efora Energy, Dipula Properties, Mantengu and Trustco.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

A mandatory takeover offer has been triggered by Emerald HoldCo’s acquisition of a controlling interest in Beta Glass through a broader restructuring involving the former Frigoglass Group’s Nigerian operations. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a mandatory takeover offer valued at ₦6,94 billion by Emerald HoldCo B.V. for up to 11,74 million ordinary shares of Beta Glass Plc. The offer will see Emerald acquire shares at ₦590.94 each representing a total transaction value of approximately N6.94 billion.

Bridge Bank Group Côte d’Ivoire has opened a public offer for a fifth of its shares, looking to raise about US$118 million (67.5 billion CFA francs) ahead of a listing on West Africa’s regional stock exchange, BRVM.

VBL Industries (Kenya) wholly-owned subsidiary of Varun Beverages has entered into an agreement to acquire the value-added dairy beverages, juices and packaged drinking water of Devyani Food Industries (Kenya) for a consideration of US$32 million.

OLA Energy Group has signed an agreement with TotalEnergies to acquire TotalEnergies Marketing Ethiopia. The transaction covers TotalEnergies Marketing Ethiopia’s full downstream operations — a network of more than 120 service stations strategically located across major cities, serving retail, B2B, aviation and lubricant customers. The network includes 10 storage assets, world-class logistics infrastructure, and digital payment solutions already in operation. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Pending litigation and SA M&A transactions: Navigating due diligence, valuation and risk allocation

In the acquisition of any company, litigation and dispute exposure is a material consideration in assessing the risk profile and overall value of the target. Litigation due diligence is not merely a procedural step, but a fundamental component of a purchaser’s risk assessment, directly shaping pricing, deal structure, conditions precedent, indemnities and post-closing risk allocation. While certain industries and businesses inevitably operate in dispute-heavy environments, unresolved litigation, pending arbitration or latent regulatory enforcement proceedings may materially erode enterprise value, disrupt business continuity and, in extreme cases, render an otherwise commercially attractive transaction untenable. Thorough and properly conducted litigation due diligence is therefore essential, equipping the parties to draw a clear distinction between manageable, quantifiable risk and exposure that fundamentally undermines the viability of the deal.

The litigation due diligence exercise typically commences with an information request list issued to the target. From a South African transactional perspective, this request will generally require disclosure of all pending, threatened or reasonably anticipated litigation, arbitration and regulatory proceedings above a specified materiality threshold, together with supporting documentation. The disclosed information is then assessed and distilled into the due diligence report, where matters are categorised as red flag, amber or routine risk items, having regard to their nature, quantum, and the likelihood of an adverse outcome. In many transactions, the findings of the litigation due diligence exercise will directly influence whether the transaction proceeds, the purchase consideration payable, and the nature and extent of risk mitigation required in the transaction documents.

The first substantive enquiry is the identification and assessment of all material litigation. This requires more than a mechanical listing of claims. Each matter must be analysed with reference to the cause of action, procedural posture, relief sought and realistic exposure, including damages, interest, costs and potential adverse cost orders. Of particular importance is whether any matter gives rise to the risk of interdictory or declaratory relief that could constrain the target’s ability to operate its business post-closing. Consideration must also be given to the adequacy of current and contingent litigation provisions or accounting reserves disclosed in the target’s financial statements, viewed against an objective assessment of exposure rather than management optimism.

Certain categories of disputes have a disproportionate impact on valuation. These include regulatory enforcement proceedings, class actions, environmental claims, intellectual property disputes affecting core technology or licences, and employment-related litigation with systemic implications. Claims of this nature raise concerns not only about financial exposure, but also about continuity of operations, reputational harm, and future compliance costs. In South African practice, purchasers will often require price adjustments, specific indemnities or escrows to address such exposure. Litigation risk, when properly quantified, becomes part of the commercial negotiation, rather than an abstract legal concern.

Effective litigation due diligence is not limited to existing disputes. It also involves reviewing key contracts with a view to identifying breaches, defaults or structural risks that may reasonably be expected to result in litigation or arbitration post-closing. South African M&A practice increasingly emphasises this forward-looking analysis. A target may have no active claims, yet still face material risk arising from non-compliance, defective performance or expiring authorisations. This anticipatory assessment often distinguishes superficial diligence from diligence that genuinely protects value.

In highly regulated sectors, the most material disputes do not always arise from conventional commercial claims, but rather from licensing, permitting and enforcement processes administered by public and law enforcement authorities. In the South African context, rights to operate in regulated industries are frequently conferred through licences, registrations or other statutory permissions, each of which is subject to its own prescribed conditions. These conditions typically include ongoing compliance obligations, reporting duties, operational limitations and, in certain instances, sensitivities to changes in shareholding or control.

Sector-specific legislation commonly prescribes procedural requirements that must be followed, not only by the regulated entity, but by the regulator itself. Where those substantive or procedural requirements are not properly complied with, the risk profile of the target can shift rapidly from latent compliance risk to active litigation risk.

This dynamic is particularly evident in sectors such as banking and financial services, where prudential regulation and approval requirements apply under the Banks Act 94 of 1990 and the Financial Markets Act, 2012; consumer credit and lending businesses regulated under the National Credit Act 34 of 2005; and telecommunications and electronic communications providers operating under the licensing and compliance regime established by the Electronic Communications Act 36 of 2005.

Similar considerations arise in the electricity sector under the Electricity Regulation Act 4 of 2006, in the mining industry under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act 28 of 2002, and in industries subject to licensing and price or conduct regulation, such as medicines and pharmaceutical dispensing, gambling and liquor trading.

In these sectors, regulatory non-compliance can carry consequences that extend well beyond financial penalties. Enforcement may take various forms, including administrative, civil and criminal action, and even sanctions; adverse licensing decisions, such as suspensions, refusals or withdrawals; the imposition of restrictive licence conditions, debarment from participation in regulated activities, disputes arising from municipal or by-law enforcement affecting licensed operations, or formal review proceedings before the courts. Each of these outcomes can materially impair the target’s ability to conduct its business post-closing and, from a transactional perspective, may have a direct impact on deal feasibility, valuation assumptions, and the purchaser’s ability to integrate the target into its existing operations.

Accordingly, a robust litigation due diligence exercise must extend beyond an analysis of instituted proceedings and pleaded claims. It must encompass a critical review of regulatory correspondence, compliance audits, inspection reports and enforcement communications, as well as an assessment of systemic indicators suggesting heightened regulatory risk. For acquirers, particularly in regulated industries, regulatory exposure is often the most commercially significant form of litigation risk, which warrants careful, transaction-specific scrutiny as part of the overall due diligence process.

In conclusion, the findings of the litigation due diligence exercise directly inform transaction mechanics. Comprehensive representations and warranties relating to litigation, compliance and undisclosed liabilities are essential, and must be supported by thorough disclosure schedules. Where identified risks warrant additional protection, specific indemnities may be negotiated outside general caps, baskets or time periods. Escrow arrangements or purchase price holdbacks are commonly employed to secure recovery for known risks. The material adverse effect clause must also be interrogated to ensure that litigation-related risks are appropriately addressed, particularly where proceedings may escalate between signing and closing. Interim conduct covenants often restrict the settlement of material disputes without purchaser consent, recognising that unilateral settlement decisions may alter the risk landscape.

Warranty and indemnity insurance is increasingly deployed as a complementary risk-allocation mechanism in M&A transactions. However, its utility remains limited in the context of known litigation and regulatory exposure – which is typically carved out of cover – underscoring the continued importance of transaction‑specific contractual protections to address identified dispute risk.

Importantly, the presence of litigation does not, in itself, preclude a transaction. Certain businesses are expected, by their nature, to operate in contested environments. The critical enquiry is whether the risk is manageable, quantifiable and capable of contractual allocation. One increasingly employed strategy is the commercial settlement of known disputes, effectively allowing the purchaser to price and “buy” the risk rather than abandon the transaction. While settlement is not always achievable, it remains a pragmatic tool in preserving value and deal momentum.

Callie Jo Bouman is a Senior Associate and Lemont Shondlani an Associate Designate | DLA Piper South Africa. The authors were supervised by Natalie Keetsi (Director)

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

Ghost Bites (Hammerson | Hyprop | Trustco)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Hammerson recycles capital at a premium to book
  • As expected, Hyprop ended up raising more than R500 million
  • Trustco’s investment in Meya Mining is in serious trouble
  • Nibbles: MAS, Prosus and more

Hammerson recycles capital at a premium to book (JSE: HMN)

Investors place a lot of importance on these transactions

Property funds are generally valued with reference to their book value, or net asset value (NAV) per share. These funds “recycle capital” by selling existing properties and putting that capital into new properties. But what is the link to NAV?

Well, each of the underlying properties in the fund contributes to the NAV by having its own book value. If the fund is recycling capital (i.e. selling properties) at a premium to NAV, or in line with NAV, then it gives the market evidence that the overall fund NAV is credible. If you want to prove the value of something, the best way is to turn it into cash!

Hammerson has announced the sale of £69 million of non-core assets, including a number of properties in Dublin that were sold to Transport Infrastructure Ireland to unlock the city’s planned Metrolink train system. Together with smaller disposals earlier in the year, Hammerson has sold £75 million in non-core assets at a “substantial premium to book value”.

It would be nice if the announcement indicated the exact premium, rather than being coy about the numbers.

Hammerson’s recent capital allocation strategy has focused on taking control of joint ventures, so it will be interesting to see how they allocate the latest capital inflow.

Ghost Bite: Hammerson has been through some rough times, but the recent share price trajectory has been solid. The total return over 12 months is almost 20%!


As expected, Hyprop ended up raising more than R500 million (JSE: HYP)

The market remains highly supportive of REITs

On Tuesday, when Hyprop told the market that they were looking to raise R500 million in fresh equity, I wrote in Ghost Bites that there was a good chance of them upsizing the raise based on market demand. Recent capital raising activity in the REIT sector has been strong, with investors throwing money at the best of the local REITs.

Sure enough, Hyprop has increased the raise to R739 million, the absolute maximum that the company could issue based on current authorities in place from shareholders. The price of R58.50 is actually a 1.4% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP). The spot price is R59.32, so at least we aren’t in a crazy scenario where investors are paying a premium to spot.

The book was oversubscribed. Although the announcement isn’t 100% clear, I think this means that there was even more demand than the R739 million that was eventually raised. It’s pretty obvious that it was oversubscribed with reference to the initial R500 million raise, otherwise they wouldn’t have upsized it!

Ghost Bite: This is another excellent example of the depth of the capital pools on the JSE, particularly for property stocks.

211
Analysing REITs

How well do you feel like you understand REITs?


Trustco’s investment in Meya Mining is in serious trouble (JSE: TTO)

Unsurprisingly, Meya Mining hasn’t escaped the destruction of the mined diamond industry

A few years ago, I was one of the only analysts in South Africa who was pounding the table (as they say) about the end of the mined diamond industry. My conviction stemmed directly from my then-girlfriend (and now-wife) specifically requesting a lab-grown diamond. Suddenly, I was paying attention to this sector. The more I researched it, the more I realised that mined diamonds were in huge trouble.

This disruption has been even more extreme than Chinese cars disrupting European and Japanese brands. Where the Chinese are offering an acceptable substitute at a much lower price, lab-grown diamonds are a perfect substitute at a vastly lower price. That’s a recipe for serious change in an industry.

With names like De Beers struggling to carve out a sustainable future, Meya Mining in Sierra Leone (part of the Trustco portfolio) doesn’t stand much of a chance.

Although Meya Mining raised a $25 million facility earlier this year, things have gotten even worse since then. The asset is in care and maintenance based on conditions in the diamond market, with this status set to continue until at least the fourth quarter of the 2026 financial year.

The risk to Meya is significant, with the auditors flagging a going concern risk in the 2025 financial statements. Although Trustco hasn’t provided any guarantees, Trustco does have a loan receivable of $46 million from Meya. The recoverability of this loan is clearly in doubt, with Trustco considering the carrying value of that loan as part of its current audit procedures.

Ghost Bite: Essentially, Trustco is flagging a substantial potential impairment here. There’s already a huge amount of noise around the company, so this won’t do them any favours.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) converted warrants into ordinary shares worth a juicy R16.4 million.
    • A founding director of Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) sold shares worth over R2 million.
    • An independent non-executive director of CA Sales Holdings (JSE: CAA) bought shares in the company on the Botswana Stock Exchange to the value of around R170k. The awkward part is that the first trade was on 29 April 2026, so this isn’t exactly a timeous notification by that director.
    • A director of Santova (JSE: SNT) sold shares worth R119k.
    • A director of Trematon (JSE: TMT) bought shares worth R4.1k.
  • In late May this year, MAS (JSE: MSP) announced the disposal of various assets, including six open-air malls in Romania. That specific disposal has now been completed. When the deal was first announced, MAS expected the net selling price to be €197.7 million (based on the property values, less the bank loans specific to the entities holding the properties). The latest announcement doesn’t give an updated number, so we have to assume that this is how things ended up.
  • Prosus (JSE: PRX) has been having a tough time on the market this year thanks to the selling pressure on Tencent. But if you look beyond this issue, you’ll find that the ecosystems business has become cash flow positive. This helps the Prosus balance sheet tremendously, with numerous knock-on benefits including access to debt. The company is now refinancing $1 billion in notes due in January 2027 and $614 million due in July 2027. These will be replaced by notes due in 2036 and 2033, priced at between 5.528% and 5.873%. This gives you a good idea of the cost of the group’s debt funding.
  • If you’re paying very close attention to Burstone (JSE: BTN), then be aware that the company picked up some errors in the reviewed financial statements for the year ended March 2026. Seeing a “change statement” is a rarity on the JSE, but it does happen from time to time, as reviewed financials are released before the final audit is completed. The change is a minor deterioration in the diluted loss per share, along with a few other changes to how certain numbers are classified. It doesn’t look material overall.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has received approval to transfer its listing to the General Segment of the Main Board of the JSE. This is certainly a step in the right direction. The effective date of the transfer is 13 July 2026.

Ghost Stories #108: Due diligence decoded – inside the modern deal risk process

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

Due diligence is often described as “doing your own research” before an acquisition, but the reality is far more complex. In this episode of Ghost Stories, The Finance Ghost is joined by Althea Soobyah, Bongiwe Mbunge and Johan Marais from Forvis Mazars to unpack what a modern due diligence process really looks like.

From financial and tax diligence through to ESG and HR considerations, the discussion explores how buyers identify hidden risks, validate value and avoid expensive mistakes. The conversation also dives into deal structuring, cross-border complexities, tax exposures, cultural risks and the growing importance of non-financial factors in corporate transactions.

Whether you’re a CFO, investor, business owner or dealmaker, this episode offers valuable insights into what happens after the letter of intent is signed and the real work begins.

After all, the due diligence can make or break a transaction!

In this episode:

  • Financial DD fundamentals: How buyers assess earnings quality, working capital and the key value drivers of a business.
  • Tax traps and opportunities: Why tax diligence goes beyond compliance and can materially impact deal structure and valuation.
  • The rise of ESG due diligence: Understanding culture, governance, workforce risks and sustainability factors that influence long-term value.
  • Cross-border transaction challenges: Navigating tax, regulatory and operational risks across multiple jurisdictions.
  • One deal, many workstreams: How coordinating financial, tax and ESG due diligence can improve efficiency and support better decision-making.

Connect with the Forvis Mazars team:

This podcast is brought to you by Forvis Mazars in South Africa.

Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. We’ve got a particularly interesting episode here, where we have three guests on it, all from Forvis Mazars, and for very, very good reason. Because we are going to be learning about the different elements of a due diligence (DD) process. 

And at Forvis Mazars they have these skills in-house. They can do almost all the bits of a DD (we’ll obviously dig into the stuff that they don’t do as well). 

To help us understand how that all looks these days, we have Johan Marais, Althea Soobyah and Bongiwe Mbunge ready to share their insights into due diligence best practice. Something I’m certainly looking forward to. 

Welcome to the show, all three of you.

Johan Marais: Thanks, Ghost. Thank you for having us.

Althea Soobyah: Thanks, Ghost. It’s good to be here.

Bongiwe Mbunge: Pleasure for me to be here, thanks, Ghost.

The Finance Ghost: So, I do have a fair bit of experience in the corporate finance industry, although it’s been more than a decade now since I looked at a due diligence report myself. 

But Johan, I’m sure not much has changed in the past decade in terms of what a DD is. And I guess for an investment audience, they might be used to seeing comments like, “Do your own research” whenever someone is writing about stocks or the market. 

And really, a DD is just “doing your own research” in terms of a corporate transaction, right? It’s making sure that the thing is what you believe it is.

Johan Marais: If I were to just take one step back as to when the due diligence is required, the actual timing. That generally happens after your non-binding offer or your letter of intent has been agreed. 

The terms contained in your non-binding offer would be your price, how much percentage is being acquired and other key commercial terms. 

When that document was agreed, only limited information was shared between the parties. And this is where a due diligence comes into effect, because much more detailed information will be shared. 

At Forvis Mazars, we do financial, tax, ESG, HR and IT due diligences. That’s why we have Althea on the call, Bongiwe on the call. Althea takes care of the tax due diligence, Bongiwe of the ESG due diligence side of things.

The Finance Ghost: And so the sides that you don’t do would be commercial, legal – as part of a deal. Your clients would need to obviously then just manage that with experts in that space, right?

Johan Marais: Absolutely. We don’t do the legal due diligence, and we don’t do the commercial due diligence. For legal due diligence, we work with various attorney firms, so we’re well placed to recommend a good attorney, who can assist with the due diligence. 

If I were to get into a little bit detail as to what does a financial due diligence entail: in essence, no purchaser wants to willingly overpay for an asset. So, part of the financial due diligence is, we look at the quality of the earnings, the operating profit, because that drives value.

There are a few other bits that’s important as well, one of them being the working capital; your inventory, debtors, creditors; and how quickly that converts into cash flow. To sum it all up, a financial due diligence really wants to identify the key value drivers of the business as well as the risks.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, so from a dealmaking perspective, essentially what happens in practice is: a company comes in, or an investor, they like the look of a thing, they’ve been given a pitch deck which says, “Hey, this is what this business does. This is why it all makes sense”. 

Obviously, they’ve formed a view on it, which is essentially the commercial due diligence piece. Although sometimes an investor will actually get a full-blown commercial due diligence done, just to make sure of the understanding of how this thing fits into a market, etc. 

But the financial due diligence is really where you just check that what you’ve actually been told is true, right? And obviously audited financials, etc. help, but when you’re in a smaller business space and the mid-market, I guess even then, you really want someone to just go and check all the detail on behalf of the buyer, and not just rely on the balance sheet that was signed last year.

Johan Marais: So, spot on, Ghost. It’s not just relying on the balance sheet last year, but it’s also understanding what drives the business. Where is the key risk, how much concentration risk do you have in customers? Are there exports? 

And then very importantly as well, there’s this one-line item in the financial statement that talks about tax. So, what does it entail? Where are the risks? Is the company compliant? And that’s where we have the expertise of Althea, who can dig into quite a bit of detail from a tax due diligence perspective.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. So, Althea, let’s maybe bring you in here then. And tax is very much your area of specialty in a due diligence, and your expertise. 

And there’s a bunch of practical considerations here, right? So again, people who might not be close to the detail of corporate transactions might not realise that sometimes they are structured as the acquisition of a business (which means the assets, some of the liabilities, come along for the ride). 

And sometimes it’s the acquisition of shares, which means you get all the skeletons in the closet as well, if there are any. They come along because you’re buying the entity you’re buying. The entire history might just come with baggage. It’s a bit like a relationship. 

So, from a tax perspective, how do you help people understand that baggage? And how does it inform your approach whether they are doing acquisition of a business or an acquisition of shares?

Althea Soobyah: It’s like you said, it’s all about protecting value in a transaction. Ultimately, at the end of the day, when you’re looking at tax exposure, it could impact the value of your assets that you’re going to acquire. 

And it does impact the decisions you make on whether or not you’re going to acquire at the shareholder level, or you’re going to acquire assets. 

What we do see from a lot of the transactions is ultimately about protecting value in the transaction. A lot of the time what we notice is that tax has always been a grudge purchase, from a compliance perspective, for any taxpayer. What we really do in a tax due diligence is to give comfort that to the extent that there is tax exposure, how does it impact the value or the acquisition, be it at share level or at an asset level.

And in practice, there could be unpaid taxes, VAT risk, payroll issues, transfer pricing exposures which would creep up along the line and sometimes, unbeknown to the potential buyer, if they’re not looking at it intricately and in detail, it might come up and “bite them” (laughs) after post-acquisition if they’re not careful. 

The second part of it is also equally important is validating the tax assets. Looking at assessed losses. It’s not only mitigating risk; it’s about upside.

What is the upside in those assets? How do I take on those assets? If I’m going to acquire at the asset level, what is it that I’m acquiring it at? 

What’s the upside for me? What are the incentives attached to those particular assets?

A lot of the time people see it as, like I said, a grudge purchase. But it could also be: what is the potential in those assets that I hold, that add value to my business? So that’s at asset level. 

And then the same thing at the shareholder level: how does that impact my decision-making when I’m acquiring? 

And similarly with a vendor due diligence: how does it impact my business if I want to sell? 

How do I think about tax due diligence? How do I think about acquisition from an overall financial perspective? How does it all fit together when I’m actually in a position where I want investors to invest and to sell off my assets?

The Finance Ghost: I think another thing that a lot of people maybe don’t realise is the extent to which a DD can actually lead to a renegotiation of terms. 

So, for example, if you’ve got an acquisition of shares, and then your tax due diligence picks up that there are actually huge potential risks here, of old issues and SARS assessments and everything else, that can trigger a restructuring of a transaction, right?

To say, actually, “No, thank you, we don’t want the shares, we’ll just buy the assets that we want”.

Althea Soobyah: Absolutely. Or, it will structure the entire legality around your sale and purchase agreements, where you’ve got an indemnity and a warranty, or even a lockbox – where you want to safeguard yourself against future tax exposure, where there’s uncertainty that crops up. 

Now, we do different types of tax due diligence.

We can do it at a high level from a compliance perspective. Then you get a limited “red flag” where we just flag potential markers that might influence your price. And then the full scope, where we actually check the tax calculations.

So, it really depends on how prudent the vendor or the seller is and how clean he keeps his books. And it depends on how prudent the approach is that the buyer wants to take and how much risk they’re willing to take on.

The Finance Ghost: I used that analogy earlier of how it’s like figuring out the baggage that someone comes with, right? But that really is what a due diligence is. It’s like an accelerated dating process. You’ve agreed to get married and it’s like, “Well, we’ve only been on one date, we better go on another 50 and we better do it this week and figure out everything”.

Bongiwe, in your world, which is the HR, the ESG side of things, people sometimes forget this stuff. This feels a bit like meeting the parents. You know, that’s important too. You marry the family; you don’t just marry the person. 

And I think that people have learned the hard way sometimes, in real life and otherwise, to actually go and check these things out properly and maybe take their time and understand them. 

So just give us an idea from your perspective of, from an HR and an ESG side, what are some of the things that you end up picking up? That people, need to be aware of? Where they need to be afraid, they need to be careful, they need to actually get this work done.

Bongiwe Mbunge: Absolutely. And thank you for that, because I firmly believe (and I’ve seen it in practice) that sound leadership generally can navigate the known. It’s about the unknown that is unearthed in this process, that can later become a surprise element that really opens the transaction to risk. 

What I really want to weave in as a theme is that it’s resilience planning. There’s a strategic part of it, and there’s a compliance part of it. And both of these are equally important to be known, pre the transaction. 

So, categorically, we would conclude on things before the transaction (that are flagged) and after the transaction and give guidance as to what should take priority. And also have an overview of what kind of things will take how long to resolve. 

This has an impact on money, to your previous point about renegotiating terms – 100%. 

But what are some of the things that we really get to see, when we table reports that unearth the non-financial risk, both across both human resources and sustainability?

This is driven by the sector and the size of the target within the transaction. All things being equal, the most important thing is to understand the industry drivers. Because then you will understand what kind of sustainability risks exist for those industries, backed by lots of research, statistics and quantifiable aspects.

It marries growth and systems. Ambition to grow is very optimistic. But are systems developed?

HR will highlight issues of culture. Is there strong cultural alignment or misalignment? Those are deemed to be soft issues until you are in it, and it becomes everything (laughs).

Because I believe that it shapes the day and it sets the tone. It also draws some limitations in terms of what can and cannot happen in that environment and provide safety. 

But more about the sector itself. When you have a target in manufacturing, you will focus on certain things. Occupational health and safety, manufacturing processes, the markets in which the targets operate. It’s often not significantly understood as to the impact that it can have. 

Why is this important? Because, if you are going to have to adopt regulation of another market into your own, by virtue of transacting across the border, you need to know that. And some of those things can have implications on taxes (such as green border taxes) or reporting regulation as well. 

One topical item that is really demanding the attention of executives, speaks to supply chains. Both from a modern slavery and human rights perspective within the supply chain, as well as the complexity that sits within the supply chain cross-border. These are nuances that, put down on paper, are well understood so that the right kind of picture can be set.

And coming back to my initial point, when leadership understands these issues at the right time, it changes and shapes the whole conversation.

Something that is deemed on the softer side, we call it a social licence to operate. The maturity level of this differs from region to region in terms of the consumers of those goods and services that we are talking about and their ability to push back. 

So, when we are saying the resilience and strategic planning is the ability to anticipate that ahead of time, it’s to reposition the business, put the transaction where it needs to be, increase the value or plan for risk and compliance matters. And those are things that, across the human resources or sustainability broad streams, come into being. 

You will appreciate that I haven’t mentioned governance, and it is the most critical thing. Because there’s a level of maturity when it comes to governance. There’s a level of code and understandability, and lesser, vague items when it comes to that. 

But it is contextualised back also to the operation itself, and it is read within context alongside the other aspects of the S and the G.

The Finance Ghost: It’s such an interesting area and I think what makes it tricky for you, I would imagine, and I wanted to ask you about this, is just the scope of work. There’s so much to think about, right? 

So, in Johan’s world, on the finance due diligence, he’s got these line items to work to, understands the common risks. Yes, there will always be some nuances specific to the company and specific to the sector. 

Althea’s world, it’s going to depend on assets, is it shares, sector rules, all of that stuff. But it’s still at least a relatively understandable scope, particularly for a finance person like me. And many of the listeners to this will be financial-type people, CFOs and the like.

So, in your world, how do you design a due diligence to try and catch – it almost feels like a catch-all? This is where everything else goes.

Are your staff unionised? Are they unhappy? Is there a culture issue? A very topical and highly politicised issue now would be, are all your staff correctly permitted to be working in South Africa? Depending on what industry you’re in, then there’s all the ESG stuff.

So how do you figure out where to spend your time when you’ve got so much you need to try and catch?

Bongiwe Mbunge: I love that question, Ghost, because this leans to your experience on the ground to be able to bring to life the sector supplement of what you need to look at and decide because you need to make a decision: what is most critical here?

Can something slip? Yes. But can something significant slip? No. 

That really is up to the experience that you are going to throw behind the execution of the due diligence. We must also highlight that an ESG due diligence can be R100,000, or R1 million. And you have got to understand critically the stakeholders that are going to be making a decision around what you are going to present to them and give guidance.

I’m going to repeat that: you need to give guidance. Because many of the buyers, eight out of 10 times, they don’t know what they need to be looking at because of the newness of the topic evolving into the office of the CEO and CFO. 

So, this is where we really need to bed down and say, in this particular transaction, given the reach into the markets and the sector and the size, this is the guidance of the minimum that we need to look at. And then take it from there.

The Finance Ghost: Incredibly interesting. And all of you have brought up this concept of cross-border transactions. It’s come up across the board here. 

And obviously, when you are doing stuff across the border, the level of risk changes once again. Because now you are dealing with another country’s laws just as a starting point – whether or not you’ve complied with not just what’s in that country but actually going across the border. 

Althea, you referenced transfer pricing. That’s a big one that has caught up some very, very big names in the market.

But Johan, just confirming that I’m right, that in a cross-border world, the risk in a due diligence, the amount of thinking that needs to go into planning it and trying to optimise the cost to the client (which is the point Bongiwe has just correctly raised) versus the risk: the complexity just goes through the roof, right?

Johan Marais: It certainly does. Complexity, and if you’re not careful, the costs as well, for performing the transaction from an advisory perspective. 

You have much more risk once you go cross-border. And to understand that risk, that’s very important. And it’s not foreign currency risk, but also the flow of funds in and out of a country, as well as a tax risk as well. 

When we do a due diligence, often there’s a subsidiary / associate / another investment that is outside the borders of South Africa. Now, we are very fortunate at Forvis Mazars, that we have a presence in almost 30 countries, which is fantastic when we assist the client to actually perform a potential acquisition, specifically on the tax side of things. 

Now tax is very specific. It needs to be done by the local team, and that’s where Althea and her teams really coordinate it from South Africa. They quarterback it here. So, I would almost ask Althea just to give a little bit of detail around just the benefit of actually using Forvis Mazars. 

Because not only is it the South African team that’s well diversified (financial, tax, ESG and a couple other streams,) but the assistance we get from our other local offices is fantastic up in Africa as well.

Althea Soobyah: I’ll do it by demonstration and by way of example. I think it’s best to do that. 

If we’ve got a tax/financial/ESG DD in South Africa, target being a South African company, but there’s layers underneath that – every country, be it in Africa or global, they have their own legislative frameworks. And more often than not, whilst it’s the South African shares being sold or the South African assets being stripped out, if there’s holding in South Africa that’s influencing its subsidiary level in an African country, that could very well trigger a tax consequence in the different region. 

Perfect example of that is in Tanzania – a shareholding being sold by foreign shareholders and the entity subsidiary sitting in Tanzania, holding the assets, might be affected. You might be triggering capital gains tax. There’s not just a transfer pricing issue with funding and cross-border transactions, but you might be triggering a capital gains tax because of immovable property or assets being held locally. There’s a sale of shares, at a foreign shareholder level, to South Africa or even globally.

So those are things that we look at when we need to look at the full picture in terms of the target, who’s the target; what the local requirements are, what the legislative framework is like. 

And it doesn’t only hold true for tax. It might be for ESG purposes, it might be from a labour perspective, from an economics and a social perspective. 

We know there’s a tendency in some of the African regions, where government makes decisions on a whim that will affect holding of assets and workforce, etc. 

Other things that are likely to have an impact is Place of Effective Management issues, bringing in foreign people that are coming into the country to establish that particular entity. There might be a setup of a new entity, depending on what the post-acquisition needs are.

That might impact and influence the due diligence from a tax perspective, from a financial perspective and from an ESG perspective. That’s what we’ve seen from a cross-border perspective. 

When we look at a coordination service, what’s important is how quickly we can pull together the resources. And what is that impact – what do we need to actually look at to provide advice to our clients that is holistic for them to make informed decisions, and how it’s going to impact the transaction? 

Will they set up an Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), are they going to retain the entity as part of their group structure? What do they need to do post-acquisition, to actually make sure that they tie all the aspects together?

The Finance Ghost: Althea, you raised Place Of Effective Management there. The acronym is POEM. The outcome is anything but poetry. 

Especially when there’s a Mauritian holding company, right? It’s super common.

You have a scenario where there are assets here, there are assets in Africa. You’ve got a Mauritian holding company, and you’ve got to make very sure that POEM is being done correctly. 

Otherwise, you think you’re buying one thing, and you’re buying something quite different. And legal jurisdiction and domicile is different to where you are a tax resident. 

The stuff is very, very, very complicated. There are, I have no doubt, a lot of deals that get done out there where a proper DD wasn’t done and nothing ever comes of it because it’s never assessed. No one ever finds out. 

Detection risk is part of it, but the reality is if you are doing a large transaction, you cannot ignore this stuff. 

If you are unlucky enough to be assessed, or someone comes and has a look or, in your world Bongiwe, something goes wrong from an HR perspective or ESG perspective. Or Johan, it turns out that actually the accounts receivable balance is almost impossible to collect and this thing doesn’t make cash.

A lot of money changes hands, and you’ve got the ability as a buyer to actually do a DD. If you either don’t do it properly or you don’t get the right people, or you don’t take it into account and structure the legals correctly, then that’s on you. There’s no consumer protection act here coming to save you. 

This is an assumption that you’ve got sophisticated people on both sides of the transaction, and if someone doesn’t pick this stuff up, then sorry for you. So that’s why this is so important. 

Bongiwe, I’m going to end off with you then. Just because you also bring such a wide variety of DD topics to the conversation, I think. 

So how do you make sure that all these elements are then reported back coherently, to give this overarching view on risk? I think particularly in your case, because I’m guessing when you’re presenting to CFOs and the like – Johan’s work, Althea’s work, that gets lots of attention, right? That’s their language.

For your stuff, you’ve got to maybe convince them a bit more of the importance, right?

Bongiwe Mbunge: Absolutely spot on. If I had a magic wand, I would fast-forward the interpretation of the outcomes of an ESG DD, to directly interpret and influence the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) in Johan’s calculation. So that you can be able to translate: what does this mean? Because I think that’s where the rubber meets the road. 

Yes, I see it. There’s a probability element; there’s a likelihood element; or unlikely. And therefore, depending on how optimistic the stakeholders feel around the transaction, they might just say “Good to know, and then we’ll move right along, we’ll keep it in mind”, only to have to deal with it in the future.

From a pre-conclusion perspective, we have got to distil the outcomes in simple language and translate it into potential risk. And not everything needs to be – you don’t need to ring a bell on absolutely everything. You use your experience to say these matters: yes, they’re important, yes, they need to be attended to. But you can make it a post-transaction thing to deal with.

But the pre-transaction elements is where the energy needs to go in, to make sure that if you are looking at the numbers, if you’re looking at the variables and the ratios over a number of years, and you marry that with what you are seeing on the non-financial element, then there’s a different dynamic. 

So, it’s the experience of the lead for the ESG DD to be able to harmonize that, to educate, and bring that on board without being an alarmist.

This is not about a “save the planet initiative” or “hugging the bear”. The commercial substance that can be influenced – these nuances needs to be understood for what they are. 

And so, I think coherently weaving that together and making sure that you are unequivocal about the recommendations that you are making, is important.

But ultimately, the decision is not resting with us. Have we actually delivered on the promise of saying we’ve highlighted significant things both on the upside and on the potential risk to give some level of clarity around some of the aspects that could enhance or compromise the transaction.

The Finance Ghost: Johan, let’s maybe finish off with you then. Any closing comments from your side for clients to be taking into account when they’re thinking about a due diligence and perhaps just a comment or two on the benefit of working with the Forvis Mazars team specifically. 

Johan Marais: If you don’t know what a financial due diligence or tax due diligence entails – phone us, make a coffee, we can explain a little bit about the risk, what the process entails. 

We do cover many angles of due diligence and that helps, especially the fees which someone would have had to pay for due diligence. Because all of the information is saved in one space, it’s shared between the different streams. Whether that’s only a South African business, whether it’s a foreign subsidiary, we work with the team overseas as you’ve heard as well. 

That saves not just in the time but also the frustration factor from the business that’s being sold. That person doesn’t want to deal with three or four different service providers. They deal with one service provider, that deals with many of the diligence aspects (yes, there might be a legal due diligence advisor as well). 

And that ultimately helps with deal execution: a shorter deal execution time. And also, we have quite a bit of experience managing different streams as well.

Thank you, Ghost.

The Finance Ghost: Thank you so much to the team and I will include the links to each of your LinkedIns and where people can find you on the Forvis Mazars website in the show notes. 

Johan, Althea, Bongiwe, thank you so much for your time. Good luck with whatever due diligences you’re currently working on. I’m sure they all bring unique challenges and something interesting. 

I look forward to getting some more insights from the three of you in years to come.

Johan Marais: Great stuff. Thank you so much.

Bongiwe Mbunge: Thank you, Ghost.

Althea Soobyah: Thank you. Great to be here.

Ghost Bites (Bytes Technology | Hyprop)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • What is VCP planning at Bytes Technology?
  • Hyprop is tapping the market for R500 million in fresh equity capital

What is VCP planning at Bytes Technology? (JSE: BYI)

This 5% stake is very interesting

Here’s an interesting one: Value Capital Partners (VCP) has taken a stake in Bytes Technology of just over 5%.

The way it works in the market is that each increment of 5% must be publicly announced. We won’t hear anything further unless VCP either drops below a 5% stake, or moves above a 10% stake.

VCP is generally not a passive investor, so it’s going to be interesting to see whether this is part of a broader plan to become more involved at Bytes.

The Bytes share price has been struggling. In 2024, the market had to get to grips with a scandal around undisclosed trades by the ex-CEO. Then, in mid-2025, there was a nasty profit warning that took the shine off a stock that used to enjoy a premium valuation.

Since then, it’s been a story of AI disruption concerns and a squeeze on margins related to Microsoft products, with little in the way of bullish sentiment to offset these issues:

Ghost Bite: Generally speaking, an institutional investor moving through a 5% threshold can be safely ignored. An exception is when that investor is known for playing a more activist role, or “constructivist” as the term sometimes goes. I look forward to seeing what happens here.


Hyprop is tapping the market for R500 million in fresh equity capital (JSE: HYP)

If market history is anything to go by, the REIT will increase the raise based on demand

When REITs announce an accelerated bookbuild, the end result is what it says on the tin: a book of investors is built very quickly.

By the time you read this, Hyprop will already know where the R500 million in capital will be coming from. There’s also a good chance of them upsizing the raise if demand is strong enough in the market.

There are very deep capital pools on the JSE thanks to the presence of institutional investors. These investors have a particular affinity for property funds, as they are strong dividend payers for the income-focused investors (the ultimate beneficiaries of these funds). Inflation protection is also very important, with many REITs doing a great job of delivering returns in excess of prevailing inflation levels.

Such is the demand in the market for REITs that these companies can often raise capital without even being specific around what the money will be used for. Hyprop has thankfully given us more information than that. They’ve provided a list of local and European projects that require capital.

On the local front, they’ve highlighted solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) projects at Canal Walk and Somerset Mall. There’s also an extension at Somerset Mall that needs money.

In Europe, Hyprop has flagged an extension at a property in Croatia. They are also looking more generically at “new acquisition and expansion opportunities” in Eastern Europe, other than the previously announced acquisition of Galleria Burgas in Bulgaria.

If there’s one thing that listed companies love, it’s a bit of flexibility around what to do with their money. I’m not surprised at all to see a generic comment like the one provided by Hyprop regarding Europe. In fact, I’m impressed that they’ve at least limited the acquisition targets to Europe, instead of just noting general acquisition opportunities across the markets of operation (i.e. including South Africa).

The guided growth in distributable income per share of between 10% and 12% for the year ended June 2026 is unaffected by this raise. That would make sense, as the raise is happening after that period! More importantly, it’s just Hyprop’s way of saying that they hit their growth target for the financial year. This comment is designed to encourage institutional investors to feel good about the management track record.

We will have to wait and see what the pricing on the raise looks like. They cannot issue shares at more than a 5% discount to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

Ghost Bite: Given the recent support of capital raises by REITs on the JSE, I doubt there will be much of a discount at all.

215
REITs vs. buy-to-let

What is your view on REITs vs. buy-to-let investments?


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A entity related to the founder of Capitec (JSE: CPI), Michiel le Roux, entered into a hedge over shares worth a whopping R6.6 billion at current prices. This is a funded put option transaction, which means that the shares have been pledged as collateral for a loan and then protected with put options to manage the downside risk. The strike price on the put option is R2,700 – way down from the current price of R4,795. The options have an expiry date of 1.16 years on average. It’s hard to imagine a market scenario in which this strike price becomes relevant, but a crisis can always happen.
    • A non-executive director of Famous Brands (JSE: FBR), who also happens to be a member of the founding family, sold shares worth over R1.2 million.
    • A director of Mr Price (JSE: MRP) bought shares worth R242k.
  • Datatec (JSE: DTC) shareholders should be aware that the company has announced the ratio applicable to the scrip distribution. In case you aren’t familiar with how these work, they give shareholders the option to receive new shares in the company in lieu of a cash dividend.
  • SAB Zenzeli Kabili (JSE: SZK) is in the process of getting approval for a special dividend of 57 cents per share from the SARB. It’s incredible how often the SARB approval for special dividends causes delays. The company now needs to revise the timing of the dividend,as the approval has not been obtained in time.

UNLOCK THE STOCK: Calgro M3

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst.

Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session. I facilitate the Q&A alongside Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us.

In the 72nd edition of Unlock the Stock, Calgro M3 (a regular on Unlock the Stock) joined us to discuss the recent financial performance and prospects of the group.

Watch the recording here:

Ghost Bites (Bank ratings upgrades | Mantengu | MAS | Oando)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Several SA banks enjoy a ratings upgrade from Fitch
  • Another potential bidder emerges for Mantengu’s Blue Ridge Platinum
  • Anticlimax: PKMI’s bid for MAS shares
  • Oando: a vertically integrated energy company that nobody talks about
  • Get the Nibbles (including director dealings)

Several SA banks enjoy a ratings upgrade from Fitch (JSE: ABG | JSE: FSR | JSE: INV | JSE: NED | JSE: SBK)

When the sovereign story improves, borrowing gets cheaper for the banking sector

South Africa still has a “junk” or speculative rating from Fitch, but at least things have been moving in the right direction. Fitch recently upgraded our sovereign debt from BB- to BB with a stable outlook.

Why does that matter? Well, apart from driving the cost of borrowing for the country as a whole, it also impacts the cost of borrowing for our corporates.

A South African corporate can have a very good rating by South African standards, but that’s exactly the point: it’s always relative to the sovereign rating. This is especially true for our banks, who have significant exposure to the government and broader economy.

Most of our local banks have all been upgraded from AA+(zaf) to AAA(zaf) by Fitch, with the part in brackets reminding investors that this is a South African debt rating. In other words, this isn’t directly comparable to an international AAA rating.

This should improve the cost of funding for Absa, FirstRand, Investec, Nedbank and Standard Bank, allowing them to be more competitive with their lending terms without sacrificing margin. I couldn’t find anything for Capitec (JSE: CPI) from Fitch, but S&P recently gave that bank an equivalent upgrade anyway.

Ghost Bite: Fiscal policy directly affects the cost of funding for our banks, which in turn impacts the availability and cost of credit for all South Africans. This is one of many reasons why government must always be held accountable for its actions!

206
Credit ratings

Do you take these ratings into account when buying shares?


Another potential bidder emerges for Mantengu’s Blue Ridge Platinum (JSE: MTU)

But the current potential buyer has an exclusivity in negotiations

Mantengu is in the process of negotiating a potential disposal of Blue Ridge Platinum to Afresources Mining. The ultimate controlling shareholders in that company are not related parties to Mantengu.

Some competitive tension has entered the chat, with an unsolicited offer coming in from a different party at a price that is higher than the Afresources indicative offer. We just don’t know how much higher, as there are no further details in the SENS announcement.

The challenge is that Mantengu had granted an exclusivity to Afresources, so they actually can’t engage on this other offer. This is precisely why buyers ask for exclusivity, and why sellers only grant it under rare circumstances. The removal of flexibility for one party in favour of the other is a key principle in any negotiation.

Will the Afresources offer get over the line? Or will those negotiations fall over, paving the way for this other deal to be negotiated? Keep in mind that even if Afresources doesn’t end up being the buyer, there’s no guarantee that the negotiations with the mystery buyer will be successful.

Ghost Bites: Welcome to the colourful world of corporate finance dealmaking. If this stuff was easy, then M&A specialists wouldn’t make nearly as much money as they do!


Anticlimax: PKMI’s bid for MAS shares (JSE: MAS)

Despite receiving many offers from MAS shareholders, PKMI didn’t acquire any further shares in the end

At the end of June, PKMI announced a bid to acquire up to 30 million MAS shares. It’s worth keeping in mind that the strategy at MAS has shifted fundamentally, with the company no longer focusing purely on property assets. In PKMI’s announcement of the bid, part of the rationale was that MAS shareholders would be given a potential liquidity event if the new strategy doesn’t align with their needs.

Well, so much for that liquidity…despite there being “strong participation” in the bid and selling offers more than twice the bid size (i.e. holders of more than 60 million MAS shares were willing to sell), PKMI elected not to buy any shares at all.

This is because PKMI wasn’t happy with the pricing that shareholders wanted. This means that no clearing price could be established under the bid, so the entire thing falls over. There’s no indication of what a suitable clearing price would’ve been. We also don’t know what prices were indicated by shareholders who wanted to sell.

Ghost Bite: The MAS share price is back to where it started this year, having plummeted during the conflict in Iran. It has been a difficult, sideways story overall.


Oando: a vertically integrated energy company that nobody talks about (JSE: OAO)

Will liquidity in this stock increase over time?

Nigerian energy group Oando has finally caught up on its financials, thanks to the release of results for the year ended December 2025.

This is a vertically integrated energy company, so you’ll see many metrics that you aren’t used to seeing. This includes Barrel of Oil Equivalent Per Day (boepd). Group boepd increased by 32% year-on-year, driven by higher output across crude oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGL). The full-year impact of the Nigerian Agip Oil Company joint venture consolidation has also been a positive contributor.

As you would expect, an energy company like this has a trading business designed to give them a smoother earnings profile across cycles. Crude oil traded volumes were up by 24%. It will be far more interesting to see how that business performed in the first half of 2026 based on all the chaos in global oil markets!

Trading volumes were down overall though, as the group changed its trading portfolio and got out of certain areas. Short-term pain for long-term gain, hopefully.

The production numbers sound exciting, but those volumes are just one part of the equation. Group revenue actually fell by 22.2% year-on-year, with the trading division driving the biggest decline.

Despite a decline in administrative expenses of 27.2%, operating profit was down by a nasty 58% in FY25.

Thanks to net finance costs decreasing by 43.4%, profit after tax only decreased by 7%. It certainly could’ve been worse.

To add to the strange shape of the income statement, earnings per share increased by 28%. Another positive element is that cash from operating activities swung from a substantial outflow to a decent inflow of N32.3 billion (roughly $23 billion at current rates).

For 2026, which is now halfway done already, the group expects production to increase to between 40,000 and 50,000 boepd. That’s a significant increase from 32,482 boepd in FY25. Supporting this strategy is a planned capex programme of between $90 and $100 million.

Ghost Bite: Above all else, I can’t wait to see what the numbers look like for the first half of the year after the conflict in Iran caused a spike in prices.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Here’s a strong bullish signal: the CEO of Clicks (JSE: CKS) bought shares worth almost R4.7 million. A different director also recently purchased shares. It’s worth noting that Clicks is down 29% year-to-date, so this gives some much-needed love to the bull case.
    • Two of the founding directors of Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP) sold share awards worth R3.26 million. The announcement doesn’t explicitly say that this was the taxable portion.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of 4Sight Holdings (JSE: 4SI) received shares in the company worth R989k. This relates to the previous acquisition of that subsidiary and the related participation of senior managers in the company’s stock awards.
    • A family entity linked to the CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) sold shares worth R500k. This is a broader restructuring need for other family members, rather than a reflection of the CEO’s personal view on the stock. Aside from the SENS being explicit on this, he also reached out to make sure I understood this nuance! I always appreciate engagement from top execs.
    • An associate of the CEO of Finbond (JSE: FGL) bought shares worth R446k. Separately, an associate of a non-executive director bought shares worth R390k.
    • Acting through Titan Premier Investments, the Wiese family bought shares in Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) worth R246k.
    • A director of Trematon (JSE: TMT) bought shares worth R95k.
  • Hulamin (JSE: HLM) announced that the Chairperson of the Board, Paul Baloyi, will no longer hold that office with effect from 6 July 2026 (i.e. immediately). If I understand the announcement correctly, he was removed by the board – a spicy and very unusual thing to happen. Linda Yanta has been appointed to the role on an interim basis. One wonders what has transpired here?

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