Tuesday, March 3, 2026
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Ghost Bites (Bidvest | Clientèle | Italtile | JSE | Libstar | Merafe | MTN | RCL Foods | Thungela)

FEATURED: RCL Foods navigates the bitter situation in sugar (JSE: RCL)

They are pushing hard in growth engines elsewhere

With revenue down 1.9% and EBITDA dropping by 24.6%, the six months to December 2025 were tough for RCL Foods. If you strip out once-offs and use the company’s view of “underlying EBITDA”, then you’ll find a decrease of 14.6%. Better, but still rough.

Similarly, HEPS is down 30.6% whereas underlying HEPS has fallen by 21.9%. Whichever way you cut it, that’s not a happy direction of travel.

The interim dividend has dropped by 25% to 15 cents per share.

Kudos to the company – while many corporates would prefer numbers like these to go away quietly, RCL Foods has been consistent in their support of the Ghost Mail platform. Just like they usually do, they’ve included a detailed view of their numbers in this piece that I recommend you check out for the full segmental performance.

The overall story here is that the Sugar segment is where you’ll find the biggest issues. Revenue fell 5.9% and EBITDA dropped sharply, down 48.5%. The EBITDA margin in that business is now just 6.8%, the lowest in the group. The stronger rand has made deep sea imports much cheaper, with current tariffs doing little to protect local industry.

Groceries grew revenue by 3.3%, although EBITDA decreased by 5% and margin fell from 13.7% to 12.6%. Pet food volumes were a highlight here, with more people choosing to get puppies and kittens instead of having babies. Such is the world we currently live in.

The Baking segment grew revenue by 0.4% and suffered a decrease in EBITDA of 4.2%, with margin dipping from 9.1% to 8.6%. Competition in the bread market was a major factor here, although a 3% increase in pie volumes suggests that we aren’t shy to throw calories at our problems.

But again, these EBITDA movements include some significant distortions in areas like fair value adjustments to raw material procurement positions, as well as insurance proceeds and partial recoveries of the sugar levy in the prior period.

If you use underlying EBITDA instead, then Sugar fell by 39.3% (still a nasty outcome), but Groceries increased by 8.7% and Baking was up 0.2%.

Management is doing what they can under the circumstances, but the sugar situation is a serious concern. This is why the share price is down 14% in the past year.

I’m curious about your view on tariffs. What do you think the right approach is?

176
Tariffs: necessary, or a waste of time?

For industries like sugar, what should government do?


Limited growth, but better trading margins and cash flows at Bidvest (JSE: BVT)

Sometimes you hit boundaries; other times you take quick singles

Bidvest is a very good company, but this doesn’t mean that they will shoot the lights out in every period. Growth in this world isn’t linear.

For the six months to December 2025, revenue was up 4% and trading profit increased by almost 7%. This means that trading margin improved by 31 basis points to 10.1%. Although HEPS was only up by 5.1% in the end (or 5.3% on a normalised basis), this is a decent result nonetheless.

Despite a significant increase in free cash flow, the interim dividend of 495 cents only represents growth of 5.3%. They’ve kept it in line with normalised HEPS, giving themselves flexibility around what to do with R3.8 billion in free cash for the period. The substantial increase in free cash was driven by a 36% uplift in net cash from operations, helped by lower net working capital investment.

Building the largest international hygiene business is the ambitious plan here, with hygiene services now contributing 55% of Services International’s trading profit. This may be a “boring” business by many standards, but it’s one that can generate dependable cash flow. I also don’t think that AI will be cleaning bathrooms anytime soon.

With little in the way of M&A activity planned for the second half of the year, Bidvest expects Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) to improve. It came in at 13.4% this period, 100 basis points lower than 14.4% in the comparable period. Capex investment will be concentrated in the Freight business.

The outlook is positive for South Africa and more subdued on the international front. With cash flow generation like this, Bidvest looks strong enough to weather most storms.


Clientèle signs off on an encouraging interim period (JSE: CLI)

The core metrics look good

The numbers at Clientèle are quite complex thanks to recent acquisitive activity that has seen the integration of 1Life and Emerald into the group. To add to the trickiness, IFRS 17 was adopted in the reporting period ended June 2025. This sets the scene for a set of financials for the six months to December 2025 that aren’t easy to interpret.

The consolidation of Emerald Life contributed R49.5 million to headline earnings in this period. The group number is R469.3 million and the restated base is R299.9 million, so just Emerald Life contributed growth of 16.5% to headline earnings. Group headline earnings increased by 56.5%, so the rest of the business is clearly doing well.

Clientèle achieved substantial growth in the total net insurance result thanks to a reduction in loss-making contracts in the current period. They also enjoyed a strong uptick in the total net investment result, with better returns on the recurring Premium Savings business and the shareholder portfolio, among other drivers of success. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Clientèle’s business is that there was only a very small increase in operating expenses in this period. This is despite the significant improvement in the earnings profile of the business.

In insurance, a key valuation metric is Embedded Value (EV). This increased from R9.2 billion to R10.3 billion. The annualised recurring return on EV jumped from 14.3% to 23.7%, yet the group is trading at a significant discount of 25% to the EV per share.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upward move in this share price.


Flat turnover just isn’t enough at Italtile (JSE: ITE)

Goodness knows they’ve warned you about this

Credit to the Italtile management team: they’ve tried very hard in recent years to warn the market about the tough conditions in the manufacturing side of the business. The share price is down 29% over 3 years, with the dividends along the way helping to mitigate the pain to a total return of -7.7%.

Although Cashbuild (JSE: CSB) doesn’t have a manufacturing arm like Italtile, both options have sucked over the past year in the market:

Ouch.

The latest numbers from Italtile don’t suggest much of an improvement to the trajectory. For the six months to December 2025, system-wide turnover was unchanged at R6.1 billion. Trading profit fell 14% to R1.0 billion. HEPS dropped by 14% to 60.6 cents. And the ordinary dividend followed suit, down 14%.

The simple reality is that if turnover goes sideways in an inflationary environment, profits will go the wrong way – unless a company has pricing power and can protect margins through price increases. And when it comes to South African consumer discretionary spending, pricing power is a myth.

As a silver lining, this flat turnover was achieved against a base period that included the non-recurring boost from two-pot withdrawals.

The stronger rand is actually making things worse for them, as it makes imports even more competitive. This makes South Africa a hotbed for the dumping of cheaper products from elsewhere in the world, damaging local manufacturing.

Although CTM suffered the worst of the oversupply issues (as is to be expected in the format that offers cheaper prices), Italtile Retail (more upmarket) grew volumes and market share, with the successful award of the Club Med project in KZN as a highlight. TopT is also struggling unfortunately, although they are opening four more stores despite the challenges.

In case you’re wondering about omnichannel retail in this space, the webstores could only manage gradually increasing traffic. With products like these, it feels like most people would still want to see and touch the product.

As a shareholder in Weaver Fintech (JSE: WVR), I was pleased to see Italtile’s comments that “buy now pay later” has become more popular in the retail space.

In the manufacturing side of the business, Ceramic Industries, capacity utilisation was only 77%. Cost reductions couldn’t offset the decline in profitability. To make it worse, protectionist trade policies in neighbouring countries made it harder for Ceramic Industries to export from South Africa, so they really are a sitting duck for cheap imports. They are obviously doing all they can to win new business, including a push into the construction market through brands like Ezee Tile.

Just when you thought Australia couldn’t possibly inflict further pain on South African businesses, Italtile found an “inconsistency” in Ceramic Australia’s monthly reporting. This led to a negative impact of A$7.6 million. Sigh.

I’m surprised to see references to unreliable energy transmission and distribution infrastructure, with a note on how this has damaged Italtile’s equipment. It just shows that there are troubles out there beyond just good ol’ fashioned load shedding. The company is also navigating the medium-term picture for natural gas supply, including getting pricing from Sasol (JSE: SOL).

With Lance Foxcroft stepping down as CEO with effect from 30 June 2026 due to “changed family circumstances” and taking over Ceramic Industries instead, Brandon Wood (the current Group COO) will step into the CEO role. It’s certainly not an easy job in this industry.

The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with management hoping that an uptick in GDP will give a boost to construction and home renovations.


Record financial results at JSE Limited (JSE: JSE)

This is your reminder that the owner of the exchange is listed on its own product!

The JSE has released results for the year ended December 2025. They were fantastic, with EBITDA up 15.5% and HEPS up 17.7%. Return on equity was a juicy 22%, up from 20.2% in the prior year.

Thanks to the cash generative nature of the business, the ordinary dividend is up by 16% to 961 cents per share and there’s even a special dividend of 100 cents per share for good measure.

Here’s an important point about the JSE that few people actually realise: non-trading income was 35% of operating income in this period. Although that’s actually lower than the 38% they achieved in the comparable period, this is because 2025 was an exceptional year of trading activity on our local market. The exchange has many income streams that are unrelated to the actual level of trade on the market.

Looking at the segments, it was mostly good news. Capital Markets grew revenue 18%, Post-Trade Services was up 18% and Information Services increased 10%. The downer was JIS revenue, which fell by 7% due to lower interest rates and a margin income adjustment in the prior year.

Operating expenses grew 8.3% year-on-year. If you strip out the increasing trading activity, the increase was 6.5%. This gives you insight into the fixed vs. variable cost base.

Leila Fourie is moving on from the CEO role, with Valdene Reddy taking the reins with effect from 1 April 2026. Reddy inherits a company with a 12-month share price performance of 41% – and that’s always a nice way to start.

The company separately announced that Ben Kruger will be stepping down as the lead independent director at the AGM in May.


Libstar’s potential acquirers have fizzled out (JSE: LBR)

This is exactly why it’s called “trading under cautionary”

Having previously spent several years of my career in corporate advisory capacities, I can tell you that many deals fall over during the negotiation process. This is why cautionary announcements should be taken literally – you need to exercise caution in these situations to avoid being burnt.

Here’s what the burn can look like: Libstar’s share price was trading around 9% lower in mid-afternoon trade after the company withdrew the cautionary announcement related to negotiations with potential suitors. Encouraged no doubt by the recent performance in the company, Libstar’s view is that the negotiations were undervaluing the shares in the company.

They don’t actually indicate the pricing of the potential offer, so we have no way of knowing how far apart the acquirers and the board actually were.

The bigger question is whether the meaningful gains in the share price will at least partially stick, as the company performance has been on the up. Time will tell.


Merafe kicks the can down the road at its smelters (JSE: MRF)

The game of cat-and-mouse with government and Eskom continues

As we saw in Merafe’s trading statement at the end of last week, recent trading at the company has been poor. This is because smelters have been switched off while Merafe tries to secure a sustainable electricity deal with Eskom.

We can spend all day debating whether or not it’s fair for a particular sector to get a favourable electricity tariff. In reality, the government will assess this based on the cost/benefit to the country. And if something isn’t done for Merafe’s electricity price, jobs are going to be lost.

With government and Eskom giving in-principle support to an electricity tariff of 62 cents per kWh, it seems like Merafe has a chance here. With some careful wording in the announcement around how the exact Ts & Cs of the tariff will make all the difference, Merafe has decided to extend the s189 consultation termination date from 28 February 2026 to 31 March 2026.

Or, put differently, they are making it clear to government that the job losses will still happen if the tariff doesn’t come through at the right levels.


A huge year for MTN (JSE: MTN)

MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana have been fantastic for the group numbers

After MTN Nigeria released excellent numbers on Friday, it was MTN Ghana’s turn to impress the market on Monday. As the cherry on top, this triggered the release of a trading statement by MTN as the group company.

Let’s deal with the trading statement first before digging into the segmental performance. MTN has flagged that HEPS will increase from R1.10 per share (restated FY24 base) to between R12.64 and R12.84 per share. That’s an increase of more than 11x!

This certainly isn’t reflective of how things are going in South Africa, with MTN noting pressure in the prepaid business. They don’t specifically say it, but we know that Cell C (JSE: CCD) and especially Telkom (JSE: TKG) are giving the bigger players plenty to think about in that space.

This kind of earnings increase is only possible thanks to the volatility in the African subsidiaries. MTN Nigeria swung from losses into substantial profits thanks to a vastly different forex reality, while MTN Ghana achieved strong growth in profits.

Looking more closely at MTN Ghana as the new information in the market, we find that service revenue was up 36.2% and EBITDA increased by 43.5%. EBITDA margin expanded to 60.1%, an increase of 300 basis points. Although there was a 30.2% increase in depreciation based on the capex programme in that country, the EBITDA growth was enough to propel a 49.0% increase in profit before tax.

The investment in Ghana continues, with capex excluding leases up 46.7%. Capex intensity increased from 17.4% to 18.8%.

Unlike in Nigeria where voice revenue remains a strong growth driver, Ghana only reported growth of 7.8% in that type of revenue. Data revenue was up 48.8% and digital more than doubled year-on-year.

With stable inflation in Ghana of between 6% and 10%, these are impressive results. The market will now wait and see what the picture looks like in South Africa for MTN, with the huge recovery in Africa having driven positive share price moves.


A headline loss at Thungela, but for an unusual reason (JSE: TGA)

Accounting gymnastics aside, it’s still a negative update

Headline Earnings Per Share – the HEPS reference that you keep seeing in Ghost Bites – is usually a good indicator of maintainable earnings. The idea is that it removes many of the non-recurring items. But sometimes, we find ourselves in a situation where it still ends up being skewed.

The latest trading statement from Thungela is one such example. While a whopping R8.8 billion worth of impairments is excluded from HEPS, the inability to recognise deferred tax assets is not.

This has contributed to a most unfortunate situation where HEPS has swung into the red, with an expected loss of R5.50 to R7.50 per share. In the comparable period, it was a profit of R25.59 per share.

Much as the drop is due to non-cash items, suggesting that Thungela still generated positive cash flow, the reality is that these impairments reflect a tough outlook for coal. If you can’t recognise deferred tax assets, it’s because you have a dim view on having enough taxable income available to offset the tax credits.

To put some numbers to the state of play, the Richards Bay Benchmark coal price fell 15% and the Newcastle Benchmark coal price was down 22% year-on-year. The world is working hard to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. At some point, this has to start impacting demand, and thus prices.

The market will largely look through the impairments, as this is a typical example of a company where the near-term cash flow is what matters. The long-term value of Thungela isn’t the major component of the current valuation.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • KAP (JSE: KAP) announced that a director of the holding company sold shares worth R3.3 million, in anticipation of his resignation from the board on 30 April 2026. Separately, the company announced that major subsidiary PG Bison has sold shares in KAP worth R270k.
    • The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) is out there buying shares for his family again, this time to the value of almost R100k.
    • A director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R35k. Separately, an associate of a different director sold shares worth R6.6k.
  • Exxaro (JSE: EXX) has concluded the acquisition of manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH Mauritius. This is a R10.6 billion deal that gives Exxaro control over the Tshipi Borwa Mine (the world’s 4th largest manganese mine), along with exposure to other assets. You may find this interesting: the Kalahari Manganese Field is home to around 80% of the world’s known manganese resources. Exxaro’s cash buffer of R12 – R15 billion is a thing of the past after this deal, with the company reviewing the capital allocation framework. The company has also noted that the Mokala Sale Transaction remains subject to fulfilment of conditions precedent by 27 February 2027.
  • Here’s one for shareholders in both KAP (JSE: KAP) and Sasol (JSE: SOL). KAP’s subsidiary, Safripol, relies on Sasol for the supply of propylene and ethylene under evergreen supply agreements. But the parties have had disputes over pricing and volumes, with the matter currently in arbitration. KAP has delivered a bloody nose in the form of the arbitrator ruling in favour of Safripol (in terms of pricing). Sasol could technically apply to the High Court for a review of the award, but Safripol is applying plenty of pressure elsewhere through complaints to the Competition Commission and applications to the Competition Tribunal. The dispute around the volume commitment is still in arbitration as well.
  • AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) released a trading statement for the year ended 31 December 2025. HEPS is expected to be between 13.5 cents and 14.25 cents, a huge increase vs. 3.80 cents in the prior period. Before you get too excited, there’s a change in the year-end in the prior period that affects the year-on-year comparability of numbers. There are also some significant impairments that are excluded from HEPS, but which indicate pressure in certain segments. On the plus side, the administration and managed care operations did well, as did the capitation lines of business (a specific type of healthcare payment model) in dental and managed care.
  • Nampak (JSE: NPK) announced that Glenn Fullerton is resigning from his role as CFO. He will step down on 31 August 2026, giving the company time to find a suitable replacement. He’s certainly been there through thick and thin with the group, having been appointed back in 2015.
  • Attbid has acquired additional shares in RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) to take the total stake to 7% of the shares in issue. Based on this share purchase, the aggregate stake of all concert parties (including Atterbury Property Fund) is 39.90%.
  • Transpaco (JSE: TPC) has decided to walk away from the acquisition of Premier Plastics after the Competition Commission prohibited the deal. There are appeal structures in place, but it’s a long and expensive road. They’ve opted to rather call it a day on this one.
  • Kore Potash (JSE: KP2) announced that under its formal sale process, two parties have been evaluating a potential acquisition of the company. One party has decided to walk away “for internal reasons” – whatever those might be. This leaves one party remaining. The competitive tension has now left the room though, so one wonders how this might affect the price. In a separate announcement, the company confirmed that it has acquired a further 0.46% in the company that holds its potash projects. This take their stake up to 97.46%. The additional 0.46% is being acquired for $1 million in cash. Importantly, Kore Potash has been granted the right to acquire the remaining 2.54% if an offer comes through for the entire group, essentially a “come-along” right that you would see in a typical shareholders agreement. For added complexity, regardless of how an offer would or wouldn’t be structured, the Republic of Congo has the right to own 10% of the project as a free carry. Kore Potash is still waiting for the government to indicate which entity will hold the 10%.
  • Here’s a notable board appointment for you: Prof Adrian Saville, a very well-known figure in the asset management and business strategy space, has joined the board of 4Sight Holdings (JSE: 4SI) as part of two new appointments to the board. The other appointment is Tshepo Shabangu, who brings plenty of experience to the board. 4Sight Holdings is a small cap that behaves a lot like a much bigger company. Usually, that’s a sign that the journey to becoming much more valuable will be a success!

RCL Foods interim 2026 results: continuous improvement initiatives support profitability

RCL Foods financials for the six months ended December 2025

“While adverse sugar-market dynamics weighed on overall group results, the balance of the business delivered an improved underlying performance, reflecting disciplined execution and effective management of factors within
our control.”

Paul Cruickshank – Chief Executive Officer

Key Features

  • Good underlying Groceries result
  • Continuous improvement initiatives continue to support profitability across the business
  • Volumes remain subdued across most categories

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue continuing operations -1.9% to R13.3 billion
  • Underlying EBITDA continuing operations -14.6% to R1.2 billion
  • Underlying HEPS continuing operations -22.4% to 77.4 cents
  • HEPS total operations -30.6% to 75.9 cents
  • Interim dividend per share -25.0% to 15.0 cents

Operational Review

Groceries (Culinary, Pet Food, Beverages)

Groceries delivered a good underlying result driven by improved margins in Culinary, higher Pet food volumes and a favourable product mix in Beverages.

Culinary represents a core pillar of our growth strategy and sits at the heart of our branded value proposition. We delivered a positive result in a highly competitive market. Although volumes were down 1.1% compared to the prior period, higher
margins due to CI and NRM initiatives, contributed to the improved result. Whilst the volume decline was largely due to prevailing market conditions, peanut butter was further impacted by cheaper, duty-free imports as the tariff application
remains with government for approval.

Pet food delivered an improved result versus the prior period driven primarily by higher volumes (up 2.2% compared to the prior period), partially offset by higher production and distribution costs incurred as part of the focus on improving service levels. We are driving distribution depth in new and growing channels and have a clear plan to grow within the speciality-pet and retail-spinoff channels, which is a strategic focus.

As referenced in our media release issued on 1 March 2026, production at our dry pet food plant was temporarily paused. This affected our ability to fully service demand towards the latter part of the current period and into the second half of
the financial year. Processes to restart the facility have commenced, with full production expected to resume shortly.

Despite lower volumes (down 9.3% compared to the prior period), Beverage delivered a result which was ahead of the prior period, due to focused efforts to drive a more profitable product mix and CI cost savings.

Baking (Bread, Buns and Rolls, Milling, Pies, Speciality)

Baking delivered an underlying performance in line with the prior period, amidst a challenging trading environment, with volume declines across the Bread, Buns and Rolls, and Milling categories offset by good performances in Pies and Speciality.

The Bread, Buns and Rolls operating unit saw a 4.1% volume decline from the previous period, mainly due to intensified competition in the price-sensitive bread market. We continue to focus on manufacturing excellence while driving innovation in the category.

Milling volumes declined 8.3% compared to the prior period due to weaker demand, resulting in a decline in the Milling result. Our priorities for the second half of the financial year will be to regain lost volumes as well as delivering on the CI initiatives.

Pies delivered an improved result, with volumes increasing by 3.0% compared to the prior period. The volume benefit was partially offset by an unrecovered increase in red-meat pricing following the foot and mouth disease outbreak that began in early 2025. Pies growth on the prior period was further supported by CI savings.

Speciality has delivered another good result, despite marginally lower volumes, through successful innovations and operational efficiencies.

Sugar (Sugar, Molatek Molasses-Based Animal Feed)

Sugar continues to experience significant headwinds and volatility due to inadequate tariff protection, declining world market prices and the strengthening Rand which have resulted in a substantial increase in deep sea imports adversely impacting the results. Local market volumes have been displaced by the high volumes of deep sea imported sugar, resulting in a higher proportion of local sugar supply having to be sold in the lower priced export market. The latest import duty gazetted on 4 December 2025 remains insufficient to protect the local market from the influx of imported sugar. Additionally, local market sales pricing remained unchanged, creating margin pressure as input cost increases were absorbed. Despite these challenges, the business performed well operationally through
continuous improvements at our mills.

The Malelane mill has shown a notable operational improvement as operational processes have been systematically established and refined.

The quality of the cane crop is good, supported by an enhanced fertiliser and irrigation programme.

Molatek was down on the prior period with volumes declining by 13.9% from the comparative period, primarily due to increased rainfall which boosted natural grazing resources, and continued challenges related to the foot and mouth
disease outbreak.

VIEW THE SHORT FORM ANNOUNCEMENT BELOW:

JOB030973_RCL_SFA_Interims

RCL Foods is a South African food manufacturer producing more than 20 much-loved brands including Yum Yum peanut butter, Nola mayonnaise, Ouma rusks, Pieman’s pies, Number 1 mageu, Sunbake and Sunshine bread, Supreme flour, Selati sugar, Bobtail and Catmor pet food and Molatek animal feed.

VIEW THE FULL RESULTS HERE >>>

Note: RCL Foods values the Ghost Mail audience and the company has placed its earnings here accordingly. This article reflects the views of the company. For the views of The Finance Ghost, refer to the section in Ghost Bites dealing with these results.

Ghost Bites (Brait | Merafe | MTN Nigeria | Northam Platinum | Vukile Property Fund)

Brait has reduced its stake in Premier Group (JSE: BAT | JSE: PMR)

They have raised around R1 billion in the process

Sometimes you get a cold call offering you an insurance quote; other times it’s because someone wants to buy R1 billion in shares from you. Not all cold calls are created equal!

After receiving unsolicited interest from a number of institutional investors, Brait decided to reduce its stake in Premier Group. They raised roughly R1 billion through the sale of 5.6 million ordinary shares in Premier at R177.50 per share, a 3% discount to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

This works out to around 4.4% of Premier’s shares in issue. Brait’s stake is reducing from 28.7% to 24.3%, so they still have plenty of exposure to Premier.

Brait’s indicated use of the proceeds is as vague as it comes: general working capital purposes, potential investment in existing portfolio companies and repayment of group debt.


As expected, Merafe’s numbers are going to be horrible (JSE: MRF)

They are still profitable, but they were desperate for help from NERSA

Merafe has released a trading statement for the year ended December 2025. The period is critical here, as a year is a long time in a business that is gently falling over. Based on the timing of smelters being shut off during the year, the results towards the end of the period will be very different to what we saw at the start.

The Lion Smelter is up and running again as of 16 February 2026, with NERSA having given them a lifeline in the form of a lower electricity tariff for 12 months.

And believe me, “lifeline” is the word. For the year to December, HEPS fell by between 62% and 82%. The fundamentals in ferrochrome have been weak, while electricity price increases have made most of the smelters economically unviable.

The NERSA relief is really just a Band-Aid, not a long-term solution. Despite this, the share price is up 8% over 12 months. It trades at a low Price/Earnings multiple, but it’s beyond me how this share price has held up so well.

Although only a small part of Glencore’s (JSE: GLN) business, the performance of Merafe is relevant to shareholders in Glencore as the ferrochrome operations are a joint venture.


MTN Nigeria, the most important African subsidiary in the group, had a great 2025 (JSE: MTN)

Business in the rest of Africa is all about the macroeconomic timing

MTN’s key subsidiary, MTN Nigeria, has released its results for the year ended December 2025. With subscribers up 7.9% and service revenue increasing by 55.1%, you already know that this is a positive story.

Before moving on to the profits, I want to mention that voice revenue was up by 42.1%. This is immense growth in what is essentially a legacy business for the telco players. Data revenue grew by 74.5% and fintech revenue was up 79.7%, so voice is really holding its own there.

EBITDA more than doubled, taking EBITDA margin up by 13.6 percentage points to 52.7%. Most importantly, profit after tax swung spectacularly from negative N400.4 billion to positive N1.1 trillion. This is thanks to a fantastic (and lucky) change in fortunes for African currencies vs. the US dollar. MTN Nigeria, like many other businesses in Africa, was on a very concerning trajectory before the dollar started weakening.

Although capital expenditure more than doubled, earnings were strong enough that free cash flow more than tripled to N1.2 trillion.

As great as this is, their target is to get EBITDA margin slightly higher. They believe it can increase to the mid-to-high 50s from the current level of 52.7%. They are also targeting ongoing average service revenue growth of at least 20%.

It’s worth noting that headline inflation in the country averaged 23.4% for the year, so revenue growth rates need to be above that level just for the group to achieve real growth (not just nominal growth).


Northam Platinum’s HEPS is 25x higher than the prior period (JSE: NPH)

And no, that isn’t a typo

Northam Platinum has released interim results for the six months to December 2025. The numbers are a bit of a joke, really. You’re about to see why PGM stocks climb so rapidly when the metal prices increase.

At the top of the income statement, we find a 60% increase in revenue. A 13.7% increase in metal sold certainly helps, but the real story is that the 6E basket price was up 57.2% in US dollars. The 6E price in rand was up 44.6%. Sure, there was a 2.7% decrease in the average chrome price in rand, but that’s a minor blemish on the story.

The cash margin per equivalent refined 6E ounce jumped from 21.1% to 41.2%. When your margins nearly double, exciting things happen to your income statement.

Operating profit jumped by 439% (over 5x higher) to R5.8 billion, taking operating profit margin from 7.5% to 25.1%. Yes, there’s a particularly weak base effect here, but it’s still a great outcome.

By the time we get to HEPS, the numbers are even more ridiculous. With the full effect of operating leverage (fixed costs) and financial leverage (debt) coming through, Northam’s HEPS moved from R0.61 cents to R15.24 per share. That really is ridiculous, reflecting an increase in HEPS of 25x!

Nobody really knows where the PGM prices will go, but things are certainly looking much better for the sector. Northam’s credit rating has even moved from a stable to a positive outlook.

But what is your outlook?

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PGMs - here to stay?

What is your outlook on PGMs?


Vukile’s Spanish subsidiary enters Madrid (JSE: VKE)

Castellana is acquiring Islazul Shopping Centre

Vukile Property Fund announced that Castellana Properties, its 99.7%-held Spanish subsidiary, is acquiring Islazul Shopping Centre in Madrid. If you can believe it, this is the first property that the fund will own in the capital city!

The pricing seems to finally be attractive in Madrid, with Castellana keen to take advantage of high growth in the population. Madrid is a city that people want to move to, rather than run away from, as evidenced by a growth rate that is more than double the national average of Spain.

Through initiatives like being added to Castellana’s asset management platform, enhancing the tenant mix and undertaking various capital improvement projects, Vukile believes that they can unlock additional net operating income of €2.2 million over five years. They will also benefit from an important metro line that is scheduled for completion in 2027, adding further potential footfall to what is already a highly populated area.

And while I’m skeptical of awards in general, it’s worth noting that this centre is recognised as “the most sustainable shopping centre in the world” – something that Europeans absolutely love. I presume this includes plenty of natural light, which certainly does make for a more pleasurable shopping experience.

The asset price is €318.4 million, calculated using a base price of €340 million before adjustments. Castellana is buying the shares in the property company, not the property itself. This means that there are liabilities as well. It looks like the price for the shares is €202.2 million, with potential small adjustments for working capital changes.

€30 million is deferred until 15 December 2026, with the remainder payable on the closing date (expected to be 30 April 2026).

The net initial yield is 6.5%. Thanks to the cheap debt available in Europe, the senior debt to fund the acquisition helps boost this to a cash-on-cash yield in excess of 8%. They are planning a loan-to-value ratio of 48%.

In addition, Castellana will fund a capex tranche of €12.5 million with an expected return of around 10% based on the €2.2 million uplift that they are targeting.

Frustratingly, the announcement doesn’t give historical financial information. They only indicate the forecast profits for the 11 months to March 2027 (on the assumption they acquire it at the end of April 2026) and then the 12 months to March 2028. It’s also not entirely clear to me whether the forecasts include the €2.2 million uplift. Either way, for the year to March 2028, they expect net profit after tax of €22.8 million and profit available for distribution of €14.4 million.

It’s only a Category 2 transaction under JSE rules, so this is as much information as we are going to get at this stage. There is no shareholder vote required on this transaction.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • This is an unusual one, but worth mentioning. Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) announced that the CEO and CFO received shares worth over R4.1 million for the successful disposal of the South African operations. Why is this relevant? It seems as though they had the choice to receive cash, but they elected to receive shares instead.
    • A director of Dipula Properties (JSE: DIB) sold shares worth over R1.1 million.
    • A director of Sasol (JSE: SOL) sold shares worth R925k.
    • A director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth R593k.
    • The CFO of Mantengu (JSE: MTU) bought shares worth R39.5k.
  • MC Mining (JSE: MCZ) is now 44.01% held by Kinetic Development Group. This provided the funding they need for the Makhado Project, which is moving towards achieving first coal production. Steady-state production is expected to be reached by the end of this year. They now employ 970 people, of whom 435 are from the Makhado municipal area. This is the value of private sector investment vs. a bloated government trying to create unsustainable jobs.
  • Remgro (JSE: REM) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a potential restructuring of the company’s interests in Mediclinic. As you might recall, Remgro is in negotiations with Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) to execute a transaction that would lead to Remgro owning the South African assets and MSC owning the offshore assets. It makes a lot of sense to me strategically, so I hope Remgro gets it right.
  • PPC (JSE: PPC) announced that PPC Zimbabwe is still trying to sell the Arlington Property to Transvaal Africa for $30 million. The deal was first announced in August 2025 and has been through a few challenges, including a land claim by a Zimbabwe housing cooperative! The High Court of Zimbabwe dismissed that claim with costs. Thanks to all the hurdles, the parties have extended the “date for milestone events” to 30 June 2026.
  • Ethos Capital (JSE: EPE) has completed the sale of the so-called Residual Assets for R640 million. This leaves them with only the investment in Optasia (JSE: OPA) and the economic participation in Chronos Capital via the Ethos Artificial Intelligence Fund I (B) Partnership. The large pro-rata repurchase of shares by Ethos Capital is planned for 9th March, funded through these proceeds and the partial sale of Optasia during the IPO process.
  • Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) has updated the market on some important developments in the strategic thinking. With the operating assets now exclusively in Zambia, they are looking to change the board over time to reflect that reality (vs. the historical split between SA and Zambia). They are also preparing for future cash returns to shareholders, including a possible conversion of share premium reserves into distributable reserves.
  • Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) is looking to implement a new employee share plan. They’ve issued a circular and called a shareholder meeting to approve it. If you have a material position here, I suggest you give it a read.
  • NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) has issued a circular dealing with the choice between cash dividends and a reduction of capital.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) has received more results from analysis of field samples collected at Kabwe Mine. The results support the thesis around high zinc and lead grades at the surface.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BACA) has bought another 0.4742 BTC for R512k. Perhaps the bigger story is that they’ve borrowed R2.1 million, with around a quarter used for this purchase of bitcoin and the rest used to settle a more expensive facility. There’s a small balance left for the SME lending business. Their average acquisition price is R1.56 million per BTC and the latest purchase was at a price below R1.1 million per BTC. This doesn’t exactly strike me as an asset that should be bought with debt.
  • Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) is still suspended from trading on the JSE. This means that the group needs to release a quarterly progress report. The reason for the suspension is that they are far behind with financial reporting. For example, the AGM for the year ended March 2024 was only held in November 2025! They are catching up though, with the plan being that FY25 results will be released by the end of March 2026. FY26 interims are expected to be released by the end of April 2026. Based on this expectation, the suspension is expected to be lifted by June 2026.
  • It looks like Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) is still going to be suspended from trading for a while. The company is trading under cautionary and is looking to finalise those negotiations before advising the market on the approach to be taken to releasing the 2025 annual reports.
  • Another one in the naughty corner is Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ), where they are aiming to release the financials for the six months to June 2025 by no later than 31 March 2026. The financials for the year ended December 2025 are planned to be released by 30 April 2026.

Ghost Stories #93: Budget Speech 2026 – a pivot to stability

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

South Africa’s 2026 Budget Speech announced a mix of bold, interesting and ultimately positive changes – especially for small businesses and South African investors. With pro-business policies that signal economic stability, could this be a turning point for the country?

Described affectionately by Tertius Troost (Associate Director – Tax Consulting at Forvis Mazars) as a “boring” budget, this is the first time in years that we’ve seen any kind of tax relief for South Africa’s middle class. In his words, it’s a pivot to stability – and at a time when things are really looking up for South Africa.

He joined me on this podcast to break down the budget basics and to specifically comment on areas like:

  • How the budget addresses “bracket creep” by adjusting personal income tax brackets for inflation. 
  • The increase in the VAT registration threshold and how this assists small businesses.
  • A boost for investors in the form of a higher annual limit for Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSA).
  • The approach taken to online gambling and whether education and regulation should precede taxes.
  • Other changes aimed at helping South Africans with retirements savings and even global investments.

You can connect with Tertius on LinkedIn here.

As always, please discuss the impact of the tax changes on your affairs with your personal financial advisor. Nothing you hear on this podcast should be interpreted as advice.

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. We are coming to you very soon after the budget speech in South Africa, which is obviously a really interesting time for all of us. 

And I think this 2026 budget speech has been quite different, actually. My overview is that it feels a bit more pro-growth; maybe a bit more pro-business. We are in a GNU environment now, so winds of change seem to have been blowing a little bit at least. 

To help us understand some of the key elements of this budget speech, I am joined today by Tertius Troost. He is the associate director in the tax consulting team at Forvis Mazars. He’s also no stranger to the Ghost Mail audience because we had a very similar podcast last year. 

So, Tertius, thanks so much for doing this with me again in 2026; I can’t wait to get your thoughts on this budget.

Tertius Troost: Brilliant, thanks for having me.

The Finance Ghost: It’s going to be good. There’s a lot of stuff we can talk about here, and I think what we’re going to not do is try and just give a general overview of everything because to be honest, there’s been a lot of that in the market already. What we’re rather going to do is actually dig into some of the specific points. 

But we do need to set the scene at least a little bit, right? So let me start by asking you if you feel like my gut feeling is on the money. Is this more of a pro-growth type budget? It feels to me like they’re being a bit nicer these days to businesses, to the middle class. Would that be a fair assertion?

Tertius Troost: Ya, I’ll summarise it in two ways. I think yesterday’s budget is definitely the turning-point type of narrative. It sees a lot of stabilising of debt. We saw that from next year onwards, we definitely should see a decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio, where it’s going to peak at about 78.9%. 

And then obviously, as you said, definitely pro-growth with changes to the thresholds, which is something that we’ve been waiting for, for quite a long time. To summarise, it has a little bit of excitement, but at the same time, it’s actually also a boring budget. But in this environment, a boring budget is actually a good budget.

And then obviously the main talking point: while it’s also probably good for growth and good for the man on the street, it’s just the withdrawal of the bracket creep that they actually said they would be implementing last year for the next two years. So I mean that’s very positive for people to see. 

Generally, it also has a culture of better savings, looking to increase the thresholds there. It’s generally a budget that was well-received by the public.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it feels like we’re in a better macroeconomic environment now than we have been in a very long time. 

And obviously, that takes some of the pressure off, right? Because at the end of the day, the budget is the income statement for our government. If the economy is not doing well and investment is not coming through, then obviously there’s more pressure on the fiscus. 

Because we do have a somewhat left-leaning, somewhat socialist government where there are a lot of social grants, there’s a lot of support for the poor – you end up in a scenario where they have to squeeze more from this very small tax base. That’s certainly been the narrative for as long as I can remember. Literally. 

I guess at the moment things like commodities, for example, are helping, right? I mean you’ve literally got money coming out of the ground right now in gold, in PGMs. Our tourism has been doing well (as another example).

It feels like things are doing better in South Africa and maybe this budget reflects that?

Tertius Troost: Yes, I mean macro wise, when you look at the budget review document, they predict growth of 1.6% in ‘26 and going up to 1.8% and 2% up in 2028. So it’s still not shooting the lights out, but it does at least come off as a very low base. We were looking at growth south of 1%.

So this is the point – as soon as we can get the economy growing, we can increase tax revenue. We can definitely see that the increased tax revenue will lead to – well, hopefully – better use of that tax revenue. Thereby growing the economy organically and growing the tax base, which we’ve always said is the most important. 

You have to highlight the fact that what the commodities are doing is a very important factor here. It is very cyclical, it’s not something that will remain there forever. So while that is a positive sentiment and while we’re getting good money from it, I think the tax is going to do well. 

I think the big picture from this budget is relief where it counts. It’s definitely support for small businesses, and it’s a pivot to stability. And that is the essential part.

The Finance Ghost: Pivot to stability is a nice way to put it. I like it. And also just describing it as boring. Like you say, boring is good. And people forget, when it comes to economic growth, that when you’re in a slow-growth environment, if your country is expected to do 1% and then suddenly it’s expected to do 1.5%, it’s actually growing 50% faster than before. 

It’s like that law of small numbers. 1.5% is 50% bigger than 1% in terms of growth. It’s 50 basis points more. It’s a really big difference. It makes a huge, huge difference. And that’s why we’ve got to try and actually extract this growth so that everyone can benefit. 

And it comes through in things like as you described it there, bracket creep. So for those who are maybe not familiar with the term, it just means (by my understanding) that for years, a good few years, we haven’t really had an increase in the brackets for personal tax. And so people’s salaries go up with inflation, in theory at least. 

But your effective average tax rate goes up because the brackets haven’t moved with inflation, right? But now they’ve actually moved them. So have they done a proper catch-up in the past few years (in this move) or have they just given a little bit of year-on-year relief?

Tertius Troost: Let me just give an analogy for the listeners, so they can better understand.  This weekend we’ve got the SA Open (golf tournament). Let’s use that as an example. 

Let’s say you go to play at Stellenbosch Golf Club every week; you’re teeing off of the same markers, you’re very consistent off the tee and going into the green for two. And then you arrive there one day and you see it’s been the SA open, the tee box is right at the back with the pros, and they’ve put the tee box there. And all of a sudden you hit the same tee shot and you’re sitting with a position where you just say, “Well, I can’t make it to the green”. And that’s pretty much what bracket creep is. Right?

The Finance Ghost: I love that.

Tertius Troost: It’s just a little bit of a sneaky way of getting a little bit more tax out of you. And it’s a sneaky way because it gets it from a number of people. 

Again, let’s use an example. I earn R300,000 per year. I get an inflationary increase of 6% (let’s just say inflation is 6%). That actually puts me in the same position I was in last year. From a purchasing point of view, I can only buy the same amount of goods with this increase.

But now they didn’t change the brackets. So the tax I will pay on the increase, the R318,000 salary after my increase, will actually be slightly higher. That is the impact. 

So your tax on that is just that little bit more and it’s very small. But once again, if you take a little bit off each and every single person, it leads to significantly more income to the fiscus.

And then I think the point is the brackets were only adjusted for 3.4% because as we know with the SARB trying to cap the inflation rate nearer to the 3%, that is what they believe inflation is now. 

But it is interesting to note, that’s not everyone’s inflation. For your high earners, the inflation is significantly higher because they’re buying different goods. [Laughs].

It is a little bit of a relief. It’s not significant, but it’s at least something.

The Finance Ghost: I love the golf analogy. It is exactly that, right? One year you’re arriving for the club champs and the next day you are suddenly playing against Ernie Els. That’s certainly what it’s felt like for the past decade – like teeing off against Ernie. It still feels a bit like that, but maybe it’s starting to get better, which is nice. 

Another area where I think they’ve given important relief (and specifically as a small business owner, and I think this is really important) is that VAT registration threshold. It used to be a million rand a year in turnover.

Now, most business owners will tell you that a million rand a year turnover is really not a lot. That’s not a million rand a year profit, that’s not gross margin, it’s turnover. So that’s before any of your expenses whatsoever. A million rand a year revenue is not a big business in any way, shape or form. 

And yet there was this requirement to register for VAT. Now, that might not sound like a big deal, and for businesses that are supplying other VAT-registered businesses, it’s not a big deal because your customers just claim back the VAT. It’s not the end of the world. 

But if you are a consumer-facing business, you are essentially the last step in the chain. And that’s how VAT works. It’s Value-Added Tax. So it just keeps on growing through the value chain, until you hit someone who’s not VAT registered – and that person is basically suffering all the VAT and can’t claim it back. 

But if you are supplying people who are not VAT-registered and you suddenly have to register for VAT, you are basically having 15% ripped out of your income and going to the government. Which on turnover of a million rand a year, is a little bit insane. 

So I was personally happy to see (as someone who has small businesses at heart all the time), that they’ve increased that threshold quite a lot. I mean it’s up significantly now?

Tertius Troost: Yeah. So the threshold moved up from R1 million to R2.3 million in annual turnover, as you pointed out. And what is important to note, is that this was last amended in 2009. That’s 17 years ago. This had to happen.

The Finance Ghost: It’s insane right? It’s so long. 17 years! [Laughs]. 

Tertius Troost: And I’m also a homeowner, so I also have people coming across needing to fix things every now and then. And every time someone adds that 15% to your bill, then you feel “ugh!” – you can feel that tangibly; you can feel it in your pocket. 

So hopefully you get to a position where the smaller businesses that we sometimes use don’t need to register, they’re not adding the 15% on top of it. And maybe that at least means some money in their pocket, too. 

If you’re actually adding certain value, as you said, you could claim certain inputs if you are registered for VAT, but that’s not for all small businesses. By lifting the threshold, Treasury is effectively removing certain businesses from the VAT net and promoting smaller businesses. 

That means that there’s less time for them on compliance. As you pointed out, that is a significant cost for a small business who doesn’t necessarily understand it. It results in more predictable cash flow, you’re not having to claim inputs and flow outputs. It’s the ability to price more competitively. You’re no longer carrying that 15%. You can compete against the bigger businesses if you don’t need to add that.

It’s a subtle acknowledgement of the economic reality – inflation and rising costs have pushed the businesses up. This R1 million threshold is way too low. The R2.3 million is more in line with what it should be. 

Take note, it’s 17 years. It’s more than double. But I think if you were to increase that with inflation, it would probably be even more. But at least it shows you that they are looking into these types of things. Hopefully they will keep these thresholds and brackets and limits, and they’ll just review them on a more regular basis. Because there were quite a few of these thresholds that will change in this budget.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. 17 years to not go anywhere, is absolutely bonkers. And as you say, it’s the compliance burden, right? And also, SARS’ behavior with VAT. If you throw a stone in a room full of entrepreneurs, I promise you’ll hit someone who has waited for a VAT refund for an unreasonably long time. I’ve heard that story so many times, so it’s nice to hear that that is improving. 

I think that probably gives us a nice lay of the land of some of the really important changes. There are many more, and we’ll obviously touch on some of them now. But something that keeps coming up – and now that we are in earnings season, I’m seeing it again – is that every consumer-facing business in the country right now, when they talk about the macroeconomic environment and what’s happening to their sales, etc, they keep raising this point around online gambling and gaming. 

There’s a piece of me that thinks that at least to some extent, it’s a convenient scapegoat, but there’s also an element of truth to it. People are spending a fortune on this stuff. It is an extractive industry, essentially. It’s not leading to employment of South Africans, etcetera. The money’s going overseas.

It feels like an easy place for government to actually have a go here. It’s practically a sin tax. So I’m curious about what their thinking is on taxing and getting their fair share of this. Maybe if it was actually taxed properly then it would be slightly less appealing for people and they would spend a little bit less on online gambling and gaming and a little bit more in our economy, which is ultimately what creates jobs?

Tertius Troost: Let’s just maybe take a step back, (to ask) – what is it? I mean it’s a national online gambling tax and it’s looking to tax 20% on the gross gambling revenue (they refer to the GGR) which is the net amount that these institutions receive, less what they pay out.

Now, this is on top of existing provincial gambling taxes, which can range between 5% and 9%.

And what’s interesting in Treasury’s discussion document is that they say this is not a revenue driver. This is just to stop, as you said, the social harms and discourage problem gambling. And as you mentioned, there’s a lot of talk about people using grants to gamble, students using the amounts that they receive to gamble. That’s not sustainable. 

But in terms of where we are at with the process, Treasury has released the discussion paper. The public comments closed on Friday, and following that, they will then relook at the public comments and try to draft the bill around it. That’s also open, once again, the draft legislation to public comment, to see whether it fulfils.

But I wanted to talk about whether this actually will work – because as you stated, we’re trying to discourage online gambling. As you said, Treasury said it’s not a revenue driver, it’s to discourage. 

But the problem is – shouldn’t you regulate first and tax second? Because if we take an example of someone smoking, they did a lot more around the behaviour change and then taxed thereafter. They regulated the way they advertised; they regulated where you could smoke. So maybe they should first look at those elements and then if need be, say yes, okay, let’s add the sin tax.

The further point is, this is a tax that’s proposed on the actual corporate entity and not on the individual. If you’re trying to change behavior, you should actually do more taxes on individuals. If sin taxes are on the product that the people use, then they don’t want to use it. Shouldn’t (government) be looking at certain withholding taxes – on either winnings or on the amounts that they’re betting? That will maybe look at changing the use of it. 

I think the first point that Treasury should look at is just the regulation around gambling and the effective policing thereof, and thereafter maybe looking at “Okay, let’s see if we can tax”. 

But the other point is, I know Treasury says it’s not a revenue driver, but I don’t believe it. 

All taxes in South Africa are revenue drivers. We look at the sugar tax in the past. It had a nice story around it of, “we’re trying to help people to live better lives”. If you look at all that money, it just goes into a pot for the fiscus and they use it. They don’t do a specific targeted use of that. That’s just my view.

The Finance Ghost: It’s a really interesting point. They’re taxing the corporate, not the individual. That does talk to behaviour, and maybe government is not that worried about the behaviour. 

I have sometimes had these debates with people where they say, “you know, it’s so terrible that someone gambles online”. And obviously there are extremes. Taking your social grants and gambling online is clearly a no-no. 

But I don’t know so much that it’s so terrible that if you would have spent R100 on clothes you actually don’t need or you spent that R100 entertaining yourself online betting on your favorite soccer team. I mean it’s R100 out the door on something you didn’t need anyway. Is it really so terrible? Within reason, it’s ok. 

I guess it’s like anything. People want to entertain themselves, they want to have fun. As much as it might irritate the clothing retailers that they’re not selling quite as much in the way of clothing. Like I say, an extra item of clothing in the cupboard versus entertaining yourself –  is it really so different? 

So government seems to be saying, well, “we’re going to see where this thing lands, what we really want to do is just plug the tax hole, because that’s where it is a problem.” If someone buys local clothing, there’s a whole value chain, right? There’s tax, there’s earnings here – government gets a slice of that. But if you go and swipe your card and you gamble overseas, the money’s gone.

Tertius Troost: I think there have been studies though, that this isn’t necessarily in our environment only for recreational purposes. People in South Africa gamble with the belief that they can get themselves out of poverty and win a big amount. And that is the problem that we have. So it’s actually more of an education aspect in line with that. 

The Finance Ghost: That’s very fair. There’s a huge percentage – like you say, maybe the trick is, it needs to be this regulatory piece where there’s lots of education. Maybe showing people that you’re much more likely to lose than win here. This is not an income, this is a form of entertainment. That probably does need to happen out there, and hopefully it will.

That’s going to be an interesting thing to see in years to come. 

In the meantime, of course, SARS is very focused on making sure we have more taxpayers, which obviously just spreads the burden out. 

There was an interesting comment that I know you wanted to talk about, which was around a comment, and I quote, “Supported by new technology, they registered 1.3 million new taxpayers across various tax categories.” And this piece was interesting: “Engaged with social influencers to facilitate tax compliance.” 

I did have a small laugh at that. I imagined someone doing an Instagram video with the SARS logo in the background. “Brought to you by SARS. Please also register for tax”. I’m not really sure how this is working in practice, but I was curious about your thoughts on that one [Laughs]. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs]. I thought you’d like that, Ghost. The important part there is that the registration of the 1.3 million new tax base actually brought in R4.9 in additional revenue.

Yes, Treasury did mention an aspect about content creators and influencers, but what you must also understand is that there are some people in the country that should be registered, maybe people from abroad that don’t know they’re tax resident in South Africa. 

I’ve had a few of those as clients – that arrive on my doorstep saying SARS knocked on their door because they purchased the property. They’re now on SARS’ radar. All of a sudden when I look at the facts, I see, “oh, but you’ve been a resident in the country for quite a while and you owe them quite a significant amount of tax”.

So it just shows that SARS’ technology and their administration is working well, and that the extra amount that Treasury provided to them in the budget last year is being used well when we look at investment into technology. 

The point around influencers, content creators, it’s something that has been in the media, and it’s quite topical. These people are definitely subject to tax. What is interesting, though, is that they might be subject to tax on the products that they receive in kind or the services that they receive in kind.

Sometimes when you promote the product, you are actually paid physical money. So definitely that is something that those people should be registered for – they should be paying provisional tax and they should be filing a tax return. It just goes to show, again: educate the public and tell people that there are taxes that they should look into. 

Once again, I’m very impressed with SARS under Edward Kieswetter. I know he’s ending his term now in April. We don’t have any guidance on who would be new, but at least they’re taking over a ship that seems to be sailing in the right direction, with regards to the use of technology, AI, and those types of aspects. I think it’s something positive.

The Finance Ghost: It’s amazing what happens when you put a commercial person in charge, right? But that does make sense. It’s less about using social influencers to achieve the registrations, but rather to go after the influencers themselves! 

Maybe that’s the trick. It’s like, “hey, we’ll work with you, we’ll pay you in order to get some people to register for tax”. And as you say, yes, they’re like, “Ha! Gotcha. You should be paying tax because clearly this is your business.” You’ve got to love it. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs] 

The Finance Ghost: Anyway, let’s talk about some of the other relief that actually came through in this budget. There was one that made me very happy, which was that tax-free savings account (TFSA) contributions are now higher.

I always say to people, if you’re going to get just one thing right every year, just please max out your TFSA. And not everyone can do it. But what you should absolutely not be doing is dabbling in single stocks and everything else, if you haven’t even maxed your TFSA. It is literally the government giving you this walled garden to go and build up your ETF exposure over your lifetime. 

You can chop and change between the ETFs with no tax. You’re basically turning yourself into a little fund manager. You just have to stick to ETFs. You’re not allowed to buy single stocks. It’s such an absolute no-brainer. And I was happy to see that that contribution has gone up.

Tertius Troost: Yeah, most definitely. As you say, max it out for yourself, max it out for your spouse, max it out for your kids. It’s definitely a no-brainer. So that increased from an annual limit of R36,000 per year to R46,000 per year. But what is interesting is that they didn’t change the lifetime limit, so it’s still limited to R500,000 that you can invest in your lifetime.

But that does just change the timing. It would take you less than 11 years – if you’re doing it on an annual basis – to get to that.

There are many studies that show that if you start (saving) very early, even if you start it for your kids and you leave it for when your kids reach retirement age, they can pretty much retire off that amount. That’s how compound growth will really work. 

What I wanted to talk about was how it’s kind of hidden away, but there was some targeted relief to higher earners because, like I said, not everyone can afford the tax-free savings account and the full contribution to it. 

Also, the retirement contribution deduction cap was lifted from R350 000 to R430 000. Once again, not everyone can get close to that – but it shows that there is definitely a bit of a give-back to the higher earner if they’re willing to save. 

It says if you earn more, then Treasury wants you to save more, and if you can build capital, do it locally. So do it in our TFSAs; do it in our retirement funds. Then it’s just a structured,  incentivised financial discipline, rather than a blunt tax break. They’re not just saying, “We’re going to give you relief and keep the higher earners here”. We actually do it by providing them with additional methods to save in South Africa.

The Finance Ghost: And it’s great to see. The one thing with the tax free savings cap – and I’ve seen a lot of this as well – people are quite rightly saying, “Hey, where’s the increase in the cap?”. But of course if you do the maths, it’s been around for 11 years, as you said. So you couldn’t actually have reached the cap yet, mathematically. 

But we’re going to get there in the next couple of years, and then obviously Treasury will have to look at increasing the cap, right? Otherwise, they are punishing people who started really early, which would be silly behaviour.

Tertius Troost: If you listen to the comments by Treasury, they’re saying that – I don’t know whether they’re going to raise it. I think they’re going to keep it there for quite a while, because I mean you’re still getting that tax-free growth in it.

Hopefully – I do agree that in the future they should, but it’s probably going to be, everyone reaches the cap and they’ll probably leave it for a couple of years thereafter, before really looking at it.

The Finance Ghost: Ya absolutely. And the one thing that’s really interesting is, as you say, they’re trying to encourage you to grow your capital here in South Africa. But they’ve also made it easier to take money out of the country now, haven’t they? They’ve actually given some more relief in that as well.

Tertius Troost: Ya. That’s an exchange-control change. As we know, you can flow capital out of the country but it is subject to certain rules and regulations, specifically monitored by the Reserve Bank through the authorised dealers (which are the commercial banks). And one of those rules was that on an annual basis, without obtaining any form of tax clearance certificate, you could take R1 million out of the country. But now they’ve actually pushed that up to R2 million. So that’s also positive. 

Once again, this is not aimed at everyone. This is people trying to really hedge their bets and maybeget some hard currency offshore. So that is also just positive. It’s just a little bit less of an administrative burden for those people trying to flow money out.

The Finance Ghost: A couple of other ones we should touch on before I let you go. I know donations tax saw a change, primary residence exclusion as well – perhaps you can just take us through those?

Tertius Troost: Yeah. So with the donations tax, there was always a limit of a hundred thousand. That’s not subject to donations tax. That’s lifted to R150 000. Being a homeowner, the primary residence exclusion has lifted from R2 million to R3 million. That’s not necessarily for people owning houses in the Joburg market, it probably won’t help them much. But I know people in the Cape Town market will really love that. [Laughs]. 

The Finance Ghost: I joked with a friend, “Wow, you know, garden sheds in Cape Town are now out of the net. How exciting!” I mean, it is a bit of a joke, how ridiculous the property markets are across the two cities. 

But it was high time that they increased that primary residence exclusion, let’s be honest. I would say your Joburg property is now basically a tax-free asset from a capital gains perspective. Unfortunately. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs]. Let me put it in the tax-free savings account, and then it’ll be regular savings.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, essentially. The overview of this thing: it really does feel like it’s a pro-growth budget. We’re giving relief to people where government has historically been squeezing them. And that’s what’s so interesting. 

I mean, you and I both do it because it’s just how we’ve been conditioned. It’s like, “Oh, you know, it’s good news on tax-free savings and we know that not everyone can afford it, but it’s good news”. 

Because everyone is so browbeaten into always thinking about, “How on earth do we help people who have nothing, at the expense of the middle class?” The truth of it is you can only do that for so long – and then it actually starts to have the opposite effect. 

Because you cannot cannot squeeze the middle class into…not working poverty (per se) – obviously people still have way better quality of life than those who are genuinely on the breadline – but you do squeeze them into a point where, they’re not having as many kids, and they’re not spending, and they’re not doing all of this kind of thing which actually grows the economy. 

I think something like Curro becoming essentially a non-profit organisation is a cautionary tale for the middle class in South Africa. Where people have emigrated or are having fewer children, yes, it’s a global phenomenon, but this tax squeeze is part of it. 

And so for me personally, just seeing stuff like this is really encouraging because they are now giving tax relief to the people who are actually working, investing, and then creating jobs for others, which, as a capitalist, as I am, makes me feel like that’s the right thing for the country to be doing. So that we actually get people to see a future here, which I think they’re starting to do, as opposed to a few years ago, when it was looking pretty bleak. 

That’s kind of my summary of the budget. I’d be keen to get your final thoughts, and then I’ll let you go.

Tertius Troost: Yeah, I completely agree. I think South Africa is really poised for growth. It’s ready to turn that corner. I’ve summarised it like this before, and I’ll reiterate it: it’s a budget where relief is where it counts. It supports small businesses, and it’s a pivot to stability.

I think that’s clear-cut. You can’t get a better summary than that.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Tertius, thank you so much for your time again this year. Really appreciate it. We are operating in an exciting place in the world at the moment, in my opinion. 

I’m pretty bullish on South Africa, and it’s nice to see this kind of thing coming through. So well done to those in government who made it happen. I know who you are, and you know who you are. So congratulations to you.

And Tertius, if I don’t get to do another one of these with you this year, I’ll certainly see you for the budget next year, I’m sure. But perhaps later this year, we’ll touch base on what’s going on in the world of tax again.

Tertius Troost: Most definitely. Looking forward to it. Thanks, Ghost.   

The Finance Ghost: Ciao.

From spelunker to spactacle: the Floyd Collins story

A desperate bid to create Kentucky’s next cave attraction spiralled into one of America’s first media frenzies. Floyd Collins went underground in a bid to attract tourists and ended up as the spectacle they came to see.

Let’s go back in time together, dear reader. 

The year is 1925, and you are a traveller passing through Cave City, Kentucky. The name of this place is not foreign to you – even those who have never visited this area before have heard the stories of the massive network of caves that stretches for kilometres under the surface of this little town. Perhaps some of your friends or relatives have visited this place and paid their coins for the privilege of being chaperoned into the caves by one of the many local guides. 

Even though cave tourism is at the height of its popularity in the US, the ratio of tourists to poor farmers trying to make a living is so unbalanced that locals are in constant competition with each other over the right to own and show caves, practically pulling at visitors like vultures squabbling over scraps. On most days, the town is eerily quiet.

This day is different though – today, this sleepy little town is wide awake and bustling with activity. The streets are flooded with out-of-towners. The local hotel is fully booked, and the only restaurant in town has run out of food to serve. Tourists are paying enterprising homeowners premium rates to sleep on their bedroom floors, or in their mattress-lined bathtubs. On the outskirts of town, a gathering that closely resembles a large fair is taking place, with stands erected to sell hamburgers, hot dogs and souvenirs. Moonshiners lurk around the outskirts, selling suspicious-looking bottles (remember, we’re deep in the Prohibition era here). There is even a juggler present. 

“What is the occasion?” you ask an attendee of the festival, expecting to hear that it is the town mayor’s birthday, or perhaps some religious day of celebration. The answer surprises you: all of these people – about 10,000 in total – are here because a man is stuck in a nearby cave. 

That man is Floyd Collins, and this is what happened to him. 

Back to where it started

William Floyd Collins was born in 1887 on the Collins family farm, about 6 kilometers from Mammoth Cave, the sprawling cave system that gave Cave City both its name and its purpose. Floyd began exploring caves as a child, initially searching for Native American artifacts he could sell to visitors at the Mammoth Cave Hotel. By adulthood, cave exploration had evolved from curiosity into something closer to a long-shot business strategy.

Like most of their neighbours, the Collins family attempted to make a living by farming on the thin and sandy soil, and as a result they were quite poor. This looked like it might change in 1917, when Floyd discovered a cave (which he later named Great Crystal Cave) on their land. The Collins did what any ambitious operators in the Cave Wars era would have done: they immediately set about turning the cave into a tourist attraction. The plan was solid, the name was enticing and the cave was impressive, but unfortunately, geography proved stubborn. Floyd’s Great Crystal Cave was simply too remote, and visitor numbers remained underwhelming. 

While location was definitely the crux of the problem, sly competitors certainly didn’t help. By the 1920s, dozens of rival “show caves” were in operation across the region, all operated by families who were equally poor and desperate. Competition was creative and, at times, spectacularly dishonest. Promoters dressed as police officers would position themselves along the road to intercept visitors, confidently informing them that the caves they sought were unsafe or closed before redirecting them to “better” or “safer” caves (read: their own). In more committed moments of entrepreneurship, rivals burned ticket booths, blocked access roads and vandalised competing sites. Everyone was chasing the same prize – passing tourists with spending money – and the margins for success were thin.

Floyd, who was equal parts explorer and entrepreneur, knew exactly what he needed next – a cave closer to the main entrance to Mammoth Cave, where tourist traffic flowed more naturally. In early 1925, he believed he had his breakthrough. Working largely alone, he discovered and began enlarging a narrow opening that would later be known as Sand Cave. Risking life and limb on a hope, he crawled through tight underground passages, some no higher than 22 centimeters in places, convinced that somewhere just ahead of him lay a larger chamber – and perhaps the changing of his family’s fortunes. 

An opportunity for disaster

For weeks, Floyd worked methodically to make Sand Cave accessible enough for future tourists, clearing rocks by hand and carrying them out of the cave one bucketfull at a time.  Then, on 30 January 1925, after several hours underground, his gas lamp began to fade. Floyd knew what this meant: he needed to exit the cave before it ran out completely, otherwise he would soon be stranded in complete darkness. 

As he hastily tried to get out, he became trapped in a narrow horizontal passage. In an attempt to wriggle out, he managed to knock over his gas lamp, breaking it and dousing himself in darkness. It was a bad situation, but Floyd wasn’t panicking yet – he was an experienced caver, and he knew this particular cave very well. Could he navigate it in the dark? He reckoned he could. He felt with his foot for something that he could step against in order to boost himself out of the passage, and accidentally pressed down on an unstable rock hanging out of the ceiling of the passage. The 12kg rock immediately became detached and pinned his left ankle, simultaneously bringing down torrents of loose gravel that buried his entire body. Only his neck and head remained free. 

Floyd was trapped on his back in complete darkness, 46 meters from the entrance of the cave and 17 meters underground, on the other side of a passage so narrow that few men were brave or limber enough to squeeze through. The cave he hoped to turn into an attraction had apparently decided to keep him.

Call in the cavalry

Neighbours eventually realised Collins was missing. They located him quickly (it was well known that he was working at Sand Cave), but faced an immediate logistical problem: almost no one could physically reach him through the tight passageways. Only his younger brother, Homer, who was smaller and more agile, was able (and willing) to squeeze through in order to assess the situation and to bring food and water. Word of the trapped caver spread quickly. Soon, the media arrived. Then came the crowds.

Newspaper reporter William “Skeets” Miller of The Courier-Journal was the second person to brave the narrow cave passages in order to interview Floyd in person. He began writing vivid updates from the scene, which were published across the state. His reporting, transmitted by telegraph and amplified by the still-novel medium of radio, transformed the rescue attempt into a national fixation. Within days, Sand Cave had become the tourist destination that Floyd had hoped it would. 

A race against time

There was, however, a grim operational downside to all this attention. The sheer number of spectators lighting campfires warmed the winter air enough to melt natural ice inside Sand Cave. Icy water began pooling underground, including inside the passage where Floyd lay trapped. Over the course of 17 long days, rescue teams tried multiple approaches to get him free. One attempt to hoist him out of the passage by harness only injured him further, and engineers eventually concluded that the only viable option was to dig a vertical shaft down toward his position – an enormous undertaking for the time, as it had to be done with nothing but shovels and pickaxes.

They worked against the clock. At every juncture, the cave presented a new challenge. Melting ice resulted in slippery mud underfoot. Stabilising beams began to splinter and crack. Regular cave-ins spooked rescuers and eventually completely cut off the only passage that connected Foyed to the outside world, making it impossible for supplies to be taken to him. On 16 February 1925, after 11 days of digging, miner Ed Brenner finally reached Floyd. He was already dead, having succumbed several days earlier, most likely from exposure. The man who had spent his life searching for commercially viable caves had instead become the centre of one of the largest media spectacles of the interwar years.

And this particular cave system was not finished with him yet.

The afterlife of Floyd Collins

Initially, Floyd’s body remained where he died, and funeral services were held above ground. His brother Homer, deeply unhappy with the arrangement, later organised an effort to retrieve the remains. On 23 April 1925, diggers employed and paid by Homer successfully removed Floyd’s body and buried him in the family cemetery beneath a stalagmite headstone. 

One might reasonably expect the story to end there. It did not. In 1927, with tourism revenues struggling and finances tight, Floyd’s father sold the family farm to dentist Dr. Harry B. Thomas. Included in the deal was a clause that feels, even by Cave Wars standards, unusually grim: Dr. Thomas would own everything on the Collins farm, including the houses, the farming equipment, the Great Crystal Cave… and Floyd’s buried body. Wasting no time at all, Dr. Thomas exhumed Floyd’s remains and had them displayed in a glass-topped coffin inside the reopened Great Crystal Cave Cave. For the price of $10,000, the man who spent his last days wishing to be rescued from a cave was instead returned to one. 

Visitors soon began arriving to view the embalmed remains of the man billed as the “Greatest Cave Explorer Ever Known”. For a brief moment in 1929 it seemed as though Floyd would finally be free, when a duo of grave robbers stole his body and attempted to throw it into the Green River. It landed in a bush instead, where it was found by sniffer dogs and returned to its resting place in the cave. The theft prompted Dr. Thomas to secure the coffin with two thick metal chains and a pair of large padlocks. No further attempts at theft were made. For decades – 32 years in total – Floyd Collins remained chained inside the cave he discovered, a prisoner of the tourism economy he had once hoped to master. 

Finally, at rest

In 1961, the US government purchased Great Crystal Cave with Floyd still inside, and public access was eventually closed. Only in 1989 – an astonishing 64 years after his death – were his remains finally re-interred in a Baptist cemetery. By then, history had vindicated much of his original instinct.

The Great Crystal Cave proved far more valuable than even Floyd’s wildest estimations suggested. The government acquisition price of $285,000 (over $2 million in today’s terms) confirmed what he had long believed: the limestone beneath Kentucky held serious economic promise. Even more striking, modern cave mapping confirmed his long-held hunch that all of the region’s caves were interconnected. Today, the Mammoth cave system stretches across almost 650 kilometers, securing its status as the world’s longest known cave network.

The Sand Cave rescue became one of the first modern media spectacles, thanks to a convergence of real-time reporting, mass curiosity and roadside commerce. It demonstrated, years before most marketers would formally articulate it, that attention itself can become an economic force. Tourism, at its most intense, has always hovered near the boundary between fascination and spectacle. The same public appetite that fills national parks and heritage sites can, under the right conditions, transform misfortune into morbid attraction.

Floyd Collins went underground in 1925 hoping to build the next great show cave. Instead, the cave built the show around him.

The facts presented in this article were referenced from the incredibly detailed research and writings of Lucas Reilly. Reilly spent months interviewing park rangers, reading archived newspapers and even visiting Mammoth Cave himself. You can appreciate his work on Cave City and Floyd Collins here

Ghost Bites (Discovery | Fortress Real Estate | KAP | Libstar | Nedbank | OUTsurance | Spur | Tiger Brands | Truworths)

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Discovery is achieving excellent growth in profits (JSE: DSY)

Discovery Bank has posted positive earnings

Discovery has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. With the share price closing 7.6% higher on the day, you know it’s a goodie.

Normalised profit from operations is up by between 22% and 27%, while normalised headline earnings should be up by between 25% and 30%. Those are excellent growth rates.

If you dig a bit deeper, Discovery Insurance was one of the highlights (growth of 32% to 37%). Another bright spot is Discovery Bank, which looks like it made at least R65 million in profit vs. a loss in the prior period of R145 million. They are acquiring around 1,500 customers per day in the bank.

Along with solid growth in Discovery Life of 13% to 18%, this was good enough to propel Discovery SA forward by between 16% and 21%.

As for the rest of the growth, investors will love seeing Ping An up by between 33% and 38%. Vitality is up strongly as well overall, although elements of it were affected by currency movements (specifically Vitality Network in Japan).

Results are due on 3rd March. In the meantime, investors might treat themselves to a smoothie thanks to a share price increase of 25% over the past year.


A healthy balance sheet and solid earnings growth at Fortress Real Estate (JSE: FFB)

The total return (share price + dividend) over 12 months is above 40%

Fortress Real Estate is an interesting fund. They have logistics properties worth R24.1 billion, with exposure to South Africa as well as Central and Eastern Europe. They have retail properties in South Africa worth R11.9 billion. They also have a 14.2% stake in NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) worth R15.4 billion.

Like most property groups, Fortress has earmarked certain properties for sale. They note that conditions in the property sector are improving over time, so they are being patient with the sales in order to get the best possible exit. The results for the six months to December 2025 reflect like-for-like net operating income (NOI) growth in the retail and logistics portfolios of 6.7%, so I tend to believe them.

Vacancies are down, tenant turnover is up and the sun seems to be shining on the fund at the moment. For example, the retail portfolio’s like-for-like NOI growth of 7.0% is more than double the rate of inflation.

The performance for the interim period is strong enough to give the group confidence to upgrade distributable earnings guidance for the full year. They now anticipate growth of 10% for FY26.

For the interim period, distributable earnings increased by 16.7% and the interim dividend per share was up by 15.4%. There’s a scrip dividend alternative (shares instead of cash for the dividend), priced at a 3% discount to the volume-weighted average share price.


The shape of KAP’s income statement has changed (JSE: KAP)

The focus on margin is paying off – but there’s much work to be done

When KAP first gave an indication of its earnings for the six months to December 2025, I ran a poll at the time asking about your views on the company. Here are the results:

That’s a bullish view, with only 11% of people believing that something will go wrong from here. But to really get momentum in the share price, the company needs to get more people in the 44% fence-sitting category to get on the bid and become shareholders.

The decrease in revenue of 3% is unlikely to convince those investors, but perhaps the jump of 32% in HEPS will pique their interest. This was driven by a 10% increase in operating profit despite the revenue pressure. It’s also worth highlighting that cash generated from operations was up by 39%.

To be fair, the base period was severely impacted by the ramp-up costs at PG Bison’s new MDF facility, as well as a horrible situation for Feltex in the local vehicle manufacturing industry. Both of these issues have improved, hence the jump in profits for the group.

PG Bison’s operating margin is up 160 basis points to 15.2%, with a revenue increase of 18% in that segment doing great things for profitability. And at Feltex, operating profit increased dramatically from R42 million to R146 million thanks to a 23% increase in revenue.

As for the revenue pressure, Safripol is largely to blame here. The company suffered an 18% reduction in revenue and a 40% drop in operating profit. The operating margin is just 4%, so a drop in revenue in this low-margin segment can be mitigated by revenue in other, high-margin segments. This is why we’ve seen such a change to the group margin.

Unitrans also contributed to the change in group margin. Despite revenue decreasing by 8%, operating profit was up 3%. They are focusing on margin, not revenue for the sake of revenue.

Sleep Group grew revenue by 5% and operating profit by 4%, with the company even attributing the weak demand to online gambling. If retailers in South Africa are to be believed, people are practically sleeping on the floor in order to have money for gambling. I know it’s a problem out there, but I still think that it’s at least partially just a convenient scapegoat. In any event, 5% revenue growth isn’t a bad outcome!

But there is one bad outcome: Optix continues to disappoint. Revenue fell 11% and the operating loss widened from R18 million to R43 million. We keep hearing about how things are going to improve at this investment. It’s becoming a larger and larger pimple, right in the middle of KAP’s nose, and at a time when the market is actually starting to look more closely at KAP’s performance.

They expect the second half of the year to be softer compared to the first half. They will hopefully manage to keep margins at decent levels.

KAP is down 9.5% over 12 months, but up 25% year-to-date!


Much better numbers at Libstar (JSE: LBR)

They carried on where they left off in the first half

Libstar has released a trading statement for the year ended December 2025. They had a solid first half to the year, so the market was hoping that the momentum would continue. The good news is that it did!

With the fresh mushroom operations being sold, that part of the business has been recognised as a discontinued operation. Keep that in mind when thinking about the percentage ranges.

With areas of the business like Perishable Products and Wet Condiments doing well, total HEPS is expected to increase by between 19.6% and 24.6%. The performance was helped along by a reduction in finance costs, made possible by strong operational cash flows that took pressure off the balance sheet.

Normalised HEPS from continuing operations increased by between 20.7% and 23.7%. It’s good to see that the normalised number isn’t terribly different to the number without adjustments.

It’s not all good news – there was still a large impairment that left them in a loss-making position in terms of EPS. The Ambassador Foods snacks business looks like it suffered an impairment of over R200 million.

It’s still a much better set of numbers than we are used to seeing at Libstar. The company is still trading under cautionary based on negotiations with potential acquirers of the group. Whether or not a deal will materialise remains unclear.


There’s only slightly positive growth at Nedbank (JSE: NED)

But it’s better than the market expected

Nedbank’s share price closed 8% higher on Thursday. This is a great reminder that share price moves are a function of expectations vs. reality, not just the underlying reality.

The trigger for the move was a further trading statement, in which Nedbank confirmed that diluted HEPS would increase by between 0% and 4% for the year ended December 2025. Not exactly exciting, is it?

Return on equity (ROE) is expected to be between 15.3% and 15.5%, down from 15.8% in the prior year.

The other important metric is of course net asset value (NAV) per share, which increased by between 3% and 5%. The NAV per share is between R247.60 and R252.41, while the share price is currently at nearly R315.

These numbers reflect a bank that is struggling to grow, but they were still ahead of the market’s even more bearish expectations.

The reason for the share price trading at a premium to NAV is that the ROE is well above the return required by investors on Nedbank. This means they are willing to bid up the price until it reaches an effective return that they are happy with.

The mid-point of the NAV guidance is almost exactly R250, so the share price is trading at 1.26x NAV (or book value). Based on ROE of 15.4% at the mid-point of guidance, the effective ROE (calculated as 15.4/126) is 12.2%. In other words, investors are paying a premium to NAV that gives them an effective ROE of 12.2%, as they pay R126 for every R100 of NAV, and earn R15.4 on that amount.

It’s not a simple concept, but I felt it was worth giving it a go. This concept is a major driver of bank valuations.

And in case you’re wondering why Nedbank would release a trading statement for such a small move in HEPS, it’s because the really big move is actually in Earnings Per Share (EPS). Due to the accounting treatment of the disposal of the stake in Ecobank, EPS will decline by between 52% and 55%.


Earnings are up at OUTsurance, but their Australian business had a very tough period (JSE: OUT)

Storms and catastrophe events severely impacted Youi’s margins

One of the many standing jokes in South African investment circles relates to how Australia just continues to hurt the people who invest there. One of the (very few) exceptions has been OUTsurance, who built the Youi business from scratch in that market. Building instead of buying has been key to success.

But even Youi can have a rough year, especially as an insurance company that has to retain some of the risk on its balance sheet in order to earn an underwriting margin. Thanks to catastrophe events and storms in Australia (as though the spiders and snakes weren’t bad enough), Youi’s normalised earnings for the six months to December 2025 were down by between 40% and 46%.

When you consider that Youi contributed more than half of the group numbers in the comparable period, that’s a scary decrease.

Thankfully, OUTsurance SA came to the rescue, just like they do when the robots aren’t working in Joburg. Earnings growth of 66% to 72% in that business did a spectacular job of offsetting the Youi pressure. In fact, it was enough for the OHL Group to be up by between 10% and 15%!

Although there were high-quality sources of earnings growth in South Africa (like increases in gross written premium and a better claims experience), I must note that the South African results were helped along by a change to share-based payment structures. This is good for shareholders, but would presumably have the largest impact on the implementation of the new scheme (i.e. in this period) rather than on an ongoing basis. In other words, the incredible growth in South Africa probably isn’t an indication of realistic growth rates in years to come.

Looking at the two smaller parts of the business, OUTsurance Life was flat, with a performance of -2% to 4%. This was mainly because of the change in the South African yield curve, rather than a reflection of the underlying sales performance. OUTsurance Ireland is in the incubation phase, with losses worsening by between 18% and 24%. They expect the losses to moderate in the second half of the year.

As an additional complication, OUTsurance Group as the listed company only holds 92.8% of OHL, which is where the abovementioned operations sit. There are also other balance sheet items that sit at group level, so the results are impacted by the performance in OHL as well as any other movements that sit above OHL.

Normalised earnings per share for the group increased by between 4% and 10%, while HEPS was up by between 11% and 17%. OUTsurance believes that normalised earnings is where you should focus.

The share price is only up 3% over the past 12 months. OUTsurance is an excellent business, but it trades at a demanding valuation.


Tasty mid-teen growth at Spur (JSE: SUR)

This has been a fantastic growth story in recent years

I’m a dad, which means that Spur is a place where I find myself every few weeks or so. It’s just one of those things. Parenting is both rewarding and challenging, with Spur waffles helping to grease the wheels of procreation.

The company knows exactly what they are doing, with a focused strategy that can only leave Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) investors with a bad taste in their mouths. Just look at the outperformance over five years:

Spur’s triumphant share price chart looks set to continue its journey, as the latest results for the six months to December are strong. Revenue is up 8.5%, HEPS increased by 13.6% and the interim dividend was up 13.2%. Cash generated by operations increased by a delightful 21.1%.

Customer count is up for the period, with average spend per head growing above menu inflation. Like I said, it’s those damn waffles.

Jokes aside, it’s actually the pizza. Panarottis was the star of the show, with restaurant sales growth of 17.4% for the period. Spur was good for 7.2%, while RocoMamas increased 4.9%. I’m afraid that John Dory’s remains poor, with sales down 11.7%. The Speciality Brands segment, which includes Hussar Grill and Doppio Zero, grew 9.1%.

One of the uncertain items is the contractual dispute with GPS Food Group. Although arbitration proceedings have supported the merits of the claim, the quantum hasn’t yet been determined. With two separate claims of R167 million and R95.8 million, we aren’t talking small numbers here. As Spur is appealing the arbitration outcome, they haven’t raised a liability at this stage. Just keep this in mind as a potential negative “surprise” down the line.

I’m keen to get your views on Famous Brands vs. Spur:


Tiger Brands is focused on efficiencies (JSE: TBS)

A price-deflationary environment means that only the strong survive

Tiger Brands released a voluntary update for the four months to January 2026. In an environment of low inflation in core products like bread and cereals, it’s really difficult to achieve significant revenue growth.

Revenue from continuing operations increased by 1% year-on-year. Volumes were up 2% and price had a -1% impact – your eyes do not deceive you, that is price deflation! They’ve continued to clean up the product range, with volumes up 5% if you focus only on the SKUs they will have going forward.

Revenue growth was achieved in all business units except for Home and Personal Care, where competitive forces were severe. They expect that to get better in the second half of the year based on turnaround initiatives.

Despite the subdued revenue growth, gross margin was up. This drove growth in operating profit, with a double-digit operating margin. Benefits in areas like supply chain costs also contributed to the growth in margin.

The optimisation of the group remains the focus. This includes transactions like the disposal of the Cameroonian subsidiary, Chocolaterie Confiserie Camerounaise S.A. (Chococam). They are also deciding what to do with Beacon Chocolate and King Foods, which remain in continuing operations for now.

Although some of the share price pressure this year is because of the significant special dividend that was paid in January, there’s also evidence of profit-taking here. The share price closed 6% lower on Thursday in response to this update.


The anaemic results at Truworths continue (JSE: TRU)

They appear to be incapable of addressing the slide in Truworths Africa

Truworths trades on a Price/Earnings multiple below 8x. This isn’t because of market apathy, or because of unreasonable bearishness among investors. It’s because the only thing propping them up right now is the Office UK business – and the market knows exactly how vulnerable these offshore stories can be.

For the 26 weeks to 28 December 2025, Truworths Africa suffered a revenue decline of 3.6%. They are down in almost just about every category, making it clear that they have no idea how to stem the bleeding in the local business. Office UK grew sales by 7.1% for the period, which was just enough to perfectly offset the decline in Truworths Africa.

In terms of sales channels, online sales were up 23.3% in Truworths Africa and contributed 7.4% of sales. Office UK’s online sales were up 7.5% in local currency and contributed 45.7% of total sales (the UK online market is mature vs. South Africa).

The Office UK growth vs. Truworths Africa decline led to flat sales at group level, accompanied by a steady gross profit margin of 51.8%. At least this is an area where Truworths Africa showed some improvement, with gross margin up from 53.6% to 54.0%. Office UK’s gross margin dipped from 48.2% to 48.0%.

Group trading profit increased by 2.8%, with margin up from 16.8% to 17.2%. Cost control in Truworths Africa was probably the highlight of this result, with trading expenses down 2.6% excluding forex losses.

By the time you reach HEPS, you find an increase of 1.3%. The dividend was up by a similar percentage.

For the first seven weeks of the second half of the year, sales in Truworths Africa were up by 0.6%. Compared to the decline in the first half, this is cause for celebration. But here’s the problem: Office UK’s sales were down 1.7% in rand terms despite being up 3.4% in local currency. An investment thesis based on one offshore entity is extremely vulnerable to issues like forex movements.

The Truworths share price is down 24% over 12 months. They are up 6.7% year-to-date, with the share price trying (and failing) to break above R61.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A prescribed officer of Reunert (JSE: RLO) sold shares worth R1.6 million.
    • An associate of a director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth just under R1 million.
    • An associate of a director of Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) bought shares and CFDs worth R745k.
    • A director of Calgro M3 (JSE: CGR) has bought shares worth R175k.
  • Sygnia (JSE: SYG) has suffered yet another change in top management, with the company struggling to give investors much consistency beyond the almost-guaranteed presence of founder and CEO Magda Wierzycka. The latest is that Rashid Ismail has resigned as the financial director of the group. A replacement hasn’t been named as of yet.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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In March 2025, enX subsidiary enX Trading, entered into a subscriptions and options agreement with Trichem SA which saw the company acquire from enX a 25% stake in West African International (WAI). Trichem SA had the option to put the subscription shares to enX and to acquire the remaining 75% interest, which it has now done. Trichem paid R107,3 million for the initial stake and will pay not less than R286 million on aggregate for the full ownership of WAI, capped at an aggregate maximum consideration of R407 million – which will be paid in cash. The transaction is in line with enX’s strategy of increasing shareholder value by disposing of those businesses that unlock value when suitable opportunities arise.

Octodec Investments has announced the disposal of Killarney Mall to AJPG Property 1 for a consideration of R397,5 million. The property was strategically identified as an asset to recycle, with greater value to shareholders achieved in the unlocking by divesting and redirecting capital into other opportunities.

Altron Document Solutions, a subsidiary of Altron, will acquire a controlling equity stake in document solutions and technology services company Xtec KZN, in a move that will see it accelerate its regional growth and expand its services delivery capabilities across the South African market.

Mr Price has advised shareholders that all regulatory conditions in respect of the company’s acquisition of the retail business of NKD Group from Pegasus Group, have been received and the transaction has accordingly become unconditional.

Transpaco has been informed by the Competition Commission that the company’s R128 million acquisition of the Premier Plastics Group, announced in November 2025, has been prohibited. The company has advised it is working through the Commission’s response and will consider options available to it.

Lithium Africa, has announced its intention to acquire a 70% stake in Namli Exploration & Mining. Namli holds the prospecting right and a mining permit comprising the Springbok Project which is located in the Namaqualand region of the Northern Cape. The project includes a past-producing lithium pegmatite mine with an associated, historically produced stockpile. Lithium Africa is seeking a partner to monetise the stockpile and in-pit material. The company will pay US$1,35 million in cash for a 30% stake and $4 million in total in a staged transaction.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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AttBid, a vehicle representing Atterbury Property Fund (APF), and WeBuyCars founders Faan and Dirk van der Walt, which made an offer to RMH shareholders earlier this month, has acquired in on-market transactions a further 31,83 million RMH shares. Following the transactions, AttBid and APF hold an aggregate of c.35.11% of the RMH shares in issue.

Marshall Monteagle has issued 1,300,000 shares for cash, raising approximately US$2 million at a price of $1.54 per share. The additional shares represent 3.63% of the total issued share capital of the company.

The Board of Caxton and CTP Publishers and Printers has taken the decision to withdraw the declaration of a special dividend of 100c per ordinary share announced in January. This follows the delayed receipt of approval from the SARB. The company will now pay an interim dividend in the same amount.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$2 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 16 to 20 February 2026, the group repurchased 396,379 shares for €26,4 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. This week the company repurchased a further 308,209 shares at an average price of £45.28 per share for an aggregate £17,21 million.

During the period 16 to 20 February 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,058,244 Prosus shares for an aggregate €89,54 million and Naspers, a further 796,820 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R717,63 million.

One company issued a profit warning this week: RCL Foods.

Two companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Trustco and Labat Africa.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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In Mali, NDC Energie has acquired approximately 80 services stations across the country from Coly Energy Mali, a subsidiary of Benin Petro, for an undisclosed sum. Coly acquired the assets from TotalEnergies last year when the global firm exited its 25-year presence in the West African country. Its extensive assets accounted for an estimated 25% – 30% of the national fuel network.

Mineral exploration and development company, Kendrick Resources, has exercised its option to acquire a 70% stake in Namibia exploration licences EPL4458 and EPL 6691 from Bonya Exploration Pty Namibia. The consideration payable is US$300,000 in cash and the issue of 22 million ordinary shares in Kendrick. Further considerations of $500,000 and three million Consideration Shares will be payable once the extension of at least 18 months have been granted to the Licences.

Grene Capital Management Nigeria has completed of the management buyout of the firm from Actis. Grene Capital will now operate as an independent, Africa focused real asset fund manager, currently invested in two institutional-quality assets: Jabi Lake Mall in Abuja and Heritage Place office building in Ikoyi, Lagos.

WafR, a Morocco-based fintech, has closed a US$4 million oversubscribed seed round, co-led by LoftyInc Capital, Attijariwafa Ventures, and Almada Ventures, with participation from returning investors UM6P Ventures and First Circle Capital. WafR enables small merchants to optimise their revenues by becoming digital access points for payments, airtime top-up and other financial services. The funding will be used to, amongst other things, accelerate the expansion of its distribution network.

Spiro, an e-mobility company operating in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Benin and Togo – with pilots underway in Cameroon and Tanzania, has raised US$50 million in debt funding from Afreximbank and two new investors Nithio and Africa Go Green Fund managed by Cygnum Capital. The new capital will support the continued expansion of Spiro’s battery swapping network across existing and new markets, while further advancing the company’s proprietary technology platform, including automated battery swaps, fast charging, and renewable energy integration.

In November 2025, Ellah Lakes, an agricultural company listed on Nigeria’s NGX, announced a ₦235 billion Public Offer consisting of 18,8 billion shares at ₦12.5k each. The funds were earmarked for acquisitions and working capital. On 23 February 2026, the company announced that the level of subscription had not met the minimum threshold for allotment and therefore no shares would be allotted pursuant to the Offer. Subscription monies received would be refunded to applicants.

Abu Dhabi headquartered, Mubadala Energy, has acquired a 15% participating interest in the Nargis Offshore Area (‘Nargis’) concession, an offshore exploration block in Egypt, from Eni. Financial terms were not disclosed. The Nargis concession is located in the East Nile Delta Basin of the Mediterranean Sea, approximately 50km offshore. The concession includes the Nargis‑1 discovery made in early 2023. The Nargis concession is adjacent to the Eni-operated Nour concession, in which Mubadala Energy has a 20% stake.

The Mauritius Commercial Bank (MCB) has successfully closed its inaugural GCC and India focused Syndicated Term Loan of US$450 million. Initially launched at $300 million, the facility was oversubscribed by approximately 2.1x, enabling MCB to upsize the loan to $450 million. The facility is structured as a two-year term loan with a one-year extension option at the borrower’s discretion (2+1) and will be used for general corporate purposes.

Rising M&A activity signals growing investor confidence

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The uptick in local and foreign mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in South Africa, as well as the successful hosting of the G20 Summit, bode well for the country’s investment landscape.

A recent deal of note is Metrofile, currently being acquired by US-based investor group, Mango Holding Corp. The acquisition represents a strategic opportunity for the group to establish a regionally diversified platform in the information management and digital services sector across Africa and the Middle East.

Not only will the deal give the investors immediate presence in South Africa, Kenya, Botswana, Mozambique and the Middle East through Metrofile’s operational footprint, it will give them access to a proven platform with a trusted brand, making it a strong foundation for digital expansion and business process automation services aligned with global customer demand trends.

For Metrofile, the offer represents a unique opportunity for its shareholders to realise significant value with a premium exit, and for its employees, customers and suppliers to participate in Metrofile’s digital expansion potential.

Tamela acted as an independent expert for Metrofile, mandated to ensure shareholder protection, fair valuation, and transparent decision-making. This involved reviewing historical financial information, analysing management forecasts and budgets, performing various valuations, and considering the prevailing economic and market conditions.

What made the transaction significant was the premium payable – roughly a 95% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) prior to the first cautionary announcement, providing shareholders with meaningful value uplift. More broadly, the transaction demonstrates that South African companies continue to offer attractive value to foreign buyers, partly due to the strategic market access they provide.

The Metrofile acquisition is just one example of a more resilient M&A market. Several other deals, such as Old Mutual’s acquisition of 10X Investments; FirstRand’s acquisition of a 20.1% stake in Optasia; Premier Group’s acquisition of RFG Holdings; Nedbank’s acquisition of fintech company, iKhokha; and Exxaro’s acquisition of a portfolio of manganese assets, also underline this upswing.

It is encouraging that these companies have the confidence to consider how they should be allocating capital and what strategic bolt-on acquisitions could help strengthen their portfolios, despite various geopolitical uncertainties, such as US-SA tension.

M&A activity is a critical catalyst for moving companies forward, whether they are bulking up or gaining access to new technology. It is also an effective way for large companies to consolidate their operations and divest non-core assets – a continuous process of analysing their portfolios and identifying opportunities for optimisation, always with the overarching goal of enhancing stakeholder value for all participants.

Looking at recent transactions, the Premier Group–RFG Holdings merger is one such example. In this instance, both companies operate in the consumer goods sector and looked to create a more compelling, robust and sustainable business.

In the Fintech space, Old Mutual’s acquisition of 10X Investments will allow Old Mutual to go to market with a modern, low-cost, tech-driven platform aimed at attracting younger, digital-savvy investors, and 10X Investments will gain capital for growth and tech investment, while maintaining its brand and operational independence.

While the boost in M&A activity, especially investment by local players, means the market benefits from improved investor confidence, attractive valuations and evolving regulatory frameworks, this necessitates careful navigation by experienced local partners, especially for foreign investors.

Kgolo Qwelane is a Corporate Finance Executive | Tamela

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

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