Institutional investors face a new era of complexity and opportunity. As retirement and pension funds seek to balance long-term growth, liquidity, and responsible investing, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have emerged as a transformative solution, for public markets and also as a strategic bridge to private market exposure.
The Private Market Challenge
Private markets, namely private equity, private debt and infrastructure, offer attractive illiquidity premiums and diversification. Yet, for many South African pension funds, direct access remains limited. Regulatory allowances (such as Regulation 28’s 15% cap on private equity and 45% cap on infrastructure) are underutilised, largely due to operational complexity and liquidity constraints in defined contribution (DC) funds.
Global Trends, Local Relevance
Across the globe, leading asset managers are pioneering hybrid solutions that blend liquid public instruments with illiquid private assets. This approach delivers diversification, liquidity, and long-term value to retirement investors. Locally, the 2025 Sanlam Benchmark™ Survey highlights a strong appetite for ESG integration and investments that create positive change. South African funds are prioritising job creation, education, renewable energy, and health, with many seeking Regulation 28-compliant strategies.
ETFs: The Strategic Enabler
ETFs play a vital role in overcoming these barriers. Here’s how:
Liquidity Management Private market investments are inherently illiquid, making it difficult for funds to manage inflows, outflows, and sudden market shifts. ETFs provide a liquidity sleeve, an allocation that can be quickly adjusted, sold, or rebalanced, allowing funds to maintain flexibility without sacrificing exposure to long-term private assets.
Transition Management Moving assets into private markets often involves extended capital calls and interim cash holdings, which can drag on performance. ETFs allow funds to replicate their strategic asset allocation, preserve liquidity, and minimise cash drag during transitions. They can also serve as liquid proxies for private market exposures, keeping portfolios aligned with long-term objectives while capital is being deployed.
Cost Efficiency and Transparency ETFs typically offer lower management fees and daily disclosure of holdings, supporting governance and oversight. This transparency is crucial for trustees and principal officers tasked with fiduciary responsibility.
Regulatory Support and Market Innovation
South African pension funds have historically lagged in private market allocations, missing out on illiquidity premiums and unique growth opportunities. As institutional ETF usage grows, so does market liquidity and efficiency, supporting greater uptake of private market allocations.
The Future: Convergence and Customisation
The border between traditional and alternative asset management is dissolving. Clients are driving the convergence, seeking integrated solutions that blend public and private exposures. Product innovation is accelerating, with public–private strategies and evergreen products proliferating. ETFs are becoming essential components of institutional portfolios, well-positioned to shape future investment strategies as regulatory frameworks and investor demands evolve.
Conclusion
ETFs are no longer just passive vehicles; they are strategic instruments for institutional investors seeking flexibility, efficiency, and innovation. As trustees, principal officers, and investment consultants look to build resilient, future-ready portfolios, ETFs offer a compelling solution for navigating today’s challenges and tomorrow’s opportunities.
Satrix consists of the following authorised Financial Services Providers: Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd and Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd. The information does not constitute financial advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSPs, their shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information.
AfroCentric sells Activo for up to R600 million (JSE: ACT)
The up-front amount is R350 million
On Christmas Eve, AfroCentric announced the disposal of generic medicine manufacturer and distributor Activo to Portuguese pharmaceutical group FHC. This is a show of faith in South Africa by FHC, a company that operates in 65 countries on 4 continents.
AfroCentric wants to focus on health administration, managed care and corporate solutions – a very different business model to drug manufacturing and distribution. This is therefore a sensible disposal of a non-core asset and a significant boost to AfroCentric’s balance sheet.
Speaking of the numbers, Activo’s consolidated net assets were valued at R299 million as at 30 June 2025 and profit for the six months to June was R9 million. But if you add on AfroCentric’s goodwill and sale claims, the value on the balance sheet is actually R1.1 billion.
This is important, as the maximum value of this sale is R600 million. There is a R350 million up-front payment and a R250 million earnout structure that kicks in after three years.
This puts them on the wrong side of the balance sheet value, but one has to wonder how the goodwill wasn’t already impaired when you consider the profitability of this business (just R18 million profit on an annualised basis vs. a balance sheet value of R1.1 billion…?)
This is a Category 1 disposal, so shareholders will need to vote on it.
The share price barely moved over the Christmas period, but this is a fairly illiquid stock with limited coverage. Expecting fireworks in a small cap when almost everyone is on holiday is unreasonable. With a market cap of R1.1 billion though, this deal is a large and important value unlock.
Aspen delivered a festive gift and is up 20% (JSE: APN)
The market likes the proposed sale of the APAC business
There’s inevitably at least one major thing that happens in the quiet time on the JSE between Christmas and the new year. Aspen certainly stuck their hand up in that regard, with an announcement on the 29th of December regarding the proposed disposal of Aspen APAC (Australia, New Zealand and Asia Pacific) excluding China.
The buyer is an Australian private equity investor. The price on the table is a delightful R26.5 billion on a cash-free debt-free basis (typical of how private equity deals are structured). This works out to a normalised EV/EBITDA multiple of 11x. Based on the depressed Aspen share price after a horrible year in 2025, this was good enough to drive a mega rally in the share price (it closed 23.7% higher on the day and has settled down at a level 20% higher than pre-Christmas).
The book value of the net assets being sold as at 30 November 2025 was R22.3 billion. The selling price is therefore above book value (not that this is the most important consideration by any means).
This disposal is a big decision to make, as this part of Aspen contributed 18% of revenue and 26% of EBITDA for the year ended June 2025. But at the right price, anything is for sale.
This deal obviously creates immense flexibility for Aspen going forwards. They can reduce debt and focus on major strategic opportunities like China, Mounjaro in South Africa and other GLP-1 products in Canada and other markets. It also gives them a better chance of fixing the broken Manufacturing business that obliterated the share price in 2025.
This is a Category 1 transaction, so shareholders will be asked for their opinion on the deal in the form of a shareholder vote. The response by the share price makes it pretty clear that the market loves the deal, so I can’t see why the vote would be a problem. A circular will be released in due course.
3,000 very expensive shares for Novus – the TRP is forcing the offer price for Mustek higher (JSE: NVS | JSE: MST)
Novus plans to fight this decision
In November 2024, Novus announced a mandatory offer for Mustek of R13 per share. This was triggered in the way that all such offers are triggered: Novus breaching the 35% ownership threshold. Now, these deals are normally not contentious things, but this one had a twist.
Complaints were laid with the Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP) that Numus (a broker and hedge fund manager) was acting in concert with Novus. This matters not just because of who the defined offerors would be, but also because of how the trades by concert parties can affect the mandatory offer price.
After an investigation lasting several months, the TRP has concluded that Numus is indeed a concert party of Novus. The evidence used to reach this decision includes a brokerage mandate, shared premises (at least on an informal basis), “anticipatory positioning” (the hedge fund acquired shares 44 days before any documented instruction from Novus) and a shift in pricing strategy on the market. Another important nuance is that communication between the parties and internal board documents described CFD positions as “shares” and “shareholding” and even “23% of the equity”. Using CFD positions to avoid disclosure is the kind of thing that makes the TRP very upset.
The TRP also notes that there was no evidence of Chinese wall procedures or other controls in place. I imagine that financial compliance professionals in South Africa will take careful note of the full decision.
What does this all mean? Well, thanks to the purchase of just 3,000 shares by the hedge fund in November 2024 at R15.41 instead of the R13.00 mandatory offer price, the entire offer now jumps to R15.41. That makes the deal 18.54% more expensive for Novus. It even applies retrospectively to those who already accepted the R13.00 offer!
As the concert parties hold 60.25% of the shares in Mustek, there are plenty of Mustek shareholders who can accept the higher offer. For reference, the current share price is R14.77, so the incentive is there to accept it at the increased price.
If you look in the original circular based on the R13.00 offer price, the bank guarantee required for the offer was R334 million excluding the phantom shares. Without any adjustment for the number of shares being acquired, the guarantee would be over R395 million under the new offer price!
Yes, that’s a difference of up to R61 million based on a share purchase of R46k at a higher price. You won’t see that every day. Needless to say, Novus plans to apply to the Takeover Special Committee for a hearing to try and reverse this pain.
You might have regretted a few share purchases in your life, but I think these 3,000 shares take the cake.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
The CFO of ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) sold shares worth around R7.7 million.
An associate of a director of Optasia (JSE: OPA) bought shares worth R4.2 million.
The CEO of Exxaro (JSE: EXX) bought shares in the company worth R2.2 million.
A director of a major subsidiary of AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) sold shares worth R172k.
An associate of a director of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought shares worth R76k across two separate trades.
Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) has closed the disposal of the South African chrome and PGM operations. The second cash instalment on the sale ($10 million) is expected to be received shortly. This leaves Jubilee as a purely copper-focused business in Zambia. It also makes it a juicy acquisition target, surely?
Orion Minerals (JSE: ORE) updated the market on the progress being made to finalise the all-important funding and offtake deal with Glencore (JSE: GLN). The agreements weren’t finalised before the Christmas break, so Orion is looking to update the market early in January.
Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) continues to do precisely what it says on the tin, with the UK-based property group acquiring three supermarkets in the UK for £97.6 million. The average net initial yield is 5.5%. This includes a Tesco site in Aylesbury, a Sainsbury’s in Sale and a Waitrose in Frimley. The unexpired lease terms vary from 11 years to 16 years and there’s a strong focus on the omnichannel features of the property (space for home delivery vans, click & collect). The deals are funded from existing debt and the pro forma loan-to-value is expected to be 43%. This is part of a busy period for the fund, with a goal of recycling £400 million in capital this year.
Here’s a very sad update (especially over the festive season) and a reminder that mining is dangerous: Alphamin (JSE: APH) announced a fatal injury to an employee at the Mpama South mine in relation to an unexpected detonation during the connection of blasting wires. Mining activities were temporarily suspended for a thorough investigation, as one would expect.
Visual International (JSE: VIS) previously announced in September that Serowe Industries was looking at subscribing for a minority equity interest in the company. The due diligence investigation is ongoing and the period of exclusivity granted to Serowe has been extended until the end of February. Exclusivity periods are not uncommon in these types of transactions. And no, their website still doesn’t work.
Another day, another delay to the funding required for Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) to complete the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining and thus the Kabwe Zinc Mine. Once again, Gathoni Muchai Investments has failed to provide the money to Shuka in time. The latest “promise” is for the cash to be available in the week commencing 5 January. The long stop date for the deal has thus been extended to 15 January.
Oceana (JSE: OCE) announced that Bakar Jakoet (ex-CFO of Pick n Pay) has been appointed as lead independent director of the company.
In its quarterly update as a suspended company, Sail Mining (JSE: SGP) reminded the market that they are in the process of making a conditional offer to repurchase all the shares in the company. This would naturally come with a delisting as well. The company has been suspended from trading since mid-2022 due to being far behind on financial reporting. This was initially due to three subsidiaries of the group being placed into business rescue, although the subsequent process to catch up on the financial reporting has clearly taken a very long time as well.
PSV Holdings (JSE: PSV) has decided not to object to the JSE’s decision to delist the company after an extended period of the business rescue practitioners negotiating with other parties to try recapitalise and save the company. An update on the timing of the delisting will be provided in due course, but it won’t take long to happen.
Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.
We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us, as well as EasyEquities who have partnered with us to take these insights to a wider base of shareholders.
In the 65th edition of Unlock the Stock, Southern Sun joined the platform to talk about the recent numbers and the strategic outlook for the business. As usual, I co-hosted this event with Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.
Mr Price shows the finger to the market (JSE: MRP)
And the share price just keeps sliding
If all else fails at Mr Price, perhaps they should start a dating blog. After all, dating is all about confidence, and there’s no shortage of confidence at the company despite a share price that looks like this:
After the market had a small heart attack about the NKD transaction, there was some hope that management would at least reconsider their approach and possibly get out of the deal, or at least respond publicly to the many questions posed by the likes of 36ONE. I have no idea what the engagement behind closed doors with major shareholders has been, but I can tell you that the rest of us who only work off SENS have been flipped the bird.
Here’s a summary of the company’s approach: “You don’t like the deal? Well toughies for you, because we do.” It just gets dressed up in fancy corporate PR speak.
There’s no indication of any wiggle room in the contract. They talk about the deal being contractually complete and only subject to regulatory approvals. As I wrote when the deal was first announced, I would be surprised if the private equity sellers on the other side allowed for a break fee. They know a sucker when they see one.
Mr Price has promised a capital markets day in due course to explain to the market why this is such a good idea. I’m not sure what they plan to share that isn’t already clear to people. Unless the valuation multiple is somehow drastically different to what the market already believes, then the plummeting share price reflects the opinion of the market on the deal.
The company also gave a link to help shareholders find the 2024 audited financials of NKD. It’s just a pity that it lands on a German company register page where it isn’t clear at all how to go about finding the financials. Perhaps you’ll have more luck than me.
The poor ongoing disclosure (how hard would it have been to actually explain the EBITDA multiple?) is actually the perfect summary of their “just trust us, bro” approach to this entire transaction. Low levels of disclosure, substantial levels of hubris and a predictable impact on the share price. After so much good work in the past year or two to integrate the South African acquisitions, management got way ahead of themselves here and completely failed to read the room.
I have still not come across a single investor who is happy with the deal. Not one. It’s rare to see unanimous hatred of a transaction.
NEPI Rockcastle is growing, but it’s not exciting on a per-share basis (JSE: NRP)
And that’s the basis that counts
Property funds tend to achieve significant growth through capital raises and property acquisitions. This is important context, as any growth rate achieved by these funds needs to be considered on a per-share basis to take into account the dilutionary impact of share raises. Increasing the size of the pie is easy. Increasing the size of the slice each shareholder has in their hands is much harder. It’s the difference between inviting extra people for Christmas lunch vs. providing a larger portion per guest.
In a pre-close update, NEPI Rockcastle has highlighted 11% growth in total net operating income for 2025. That sounds amazing obviously, but distributable earnings per share will be roughly 3% higher than in 2024. That’s a big gap.
The like-for-like growth in tenant sales of 3.7% shows you why the per-share growth in distributable earnings is only 3%. Another important point to note is that like-for-like footfall was down 0.5%, so growth in sales is primarily coming from inflation and mix effects.
Don’t get me wrong: the fund is healthy and delivering growth in hard currency. It’s just very important that you anchor to the 3% growth rate, not the 11% growth in total net operating income that was boosted by acquisitions.
The balance sheet reflects the quality of the portfolio, with the fund having no trouble in refinancing debt and raising green finance linked to solar PV projects. The loan-to-value ratio is “well under 35%” – a healthy level.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
I’ve been pretty bearish on the Premier (JSE: PMR) – RFG Holdings (JSE: RFG) transaction. The RFG Holdings directors aren’t exactly sending a bullish message to the market, as there have been extensive on-market disposals by various directors worth nearly R24 million in aggregate. I don’t blame them at all.
A person closely associated with a director of British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI) sold shares worth nearly R17 million.
The chairman of Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) has subscribed for A$1 million worth of shares as part of the company’s broader capital raise that was announced in September. As an aside, the company also managed to settle its South African advisor in shares rather than cash, so that’s a win for the health of the balance sheet.
An associate of a director of Goldrush (JSE: GRT) entered into a CFD trade over Goldrush preference shares worth R3.3 million.
The CEO of Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) bought shares worth over R1.6 million.
The CEO of Aveng (JSE: AEG) retained his vested share awards, but the CFO and the finance director of Moolmans both sold their full awards worth a total of around R410k.
A director of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) – and not the CEO for once – bought shares worth R58k.
Although not a traditional director dealing, this is a related story. Directors of Quantum Foods (JSE: QFH) had previously granted call options to a third party to acquire shares at any time between 2 September 2024 and 31 December 2025. The parties have decided to extend this option to 30 June 2027.
Curro (JSE: COH) will delist on 13 January. Shareholders are therefore only a few weeks away from having a mix of Capitec (JSE: CPI) and PSG Financial Services (JSE: KST) shares in their brokerage accounts instead. I wish Curro’s management team all the best for the future – this is a very important business in South Africa.
Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) continues to be a story of hit-and-miss, with the planned acquisition of Australian renewable energy company Carbon Resilience falling over. This was supposed to be a reverse takeover transaction, but Carbon Resilience and the seller of the asset haven’t provided sufficient due diligence documentation within the required timeframe for the agreement to become effective. To make it worse, the noteholder providing funding to Kibo Energy has switched the taps off and won’t provide the next tranche, so the company is now scrambling for alternative funding and an acquisition. Kibo is currently suspended from trading.
Here’s an interesting non-executive director appointment that deserves a mention: Richard Wainwright, the ex-CEO of Investec Bank from 2016 to 2024, has joined the board of Pepkor (JSE: PPH).
In a sad and sorry end to a business journey that in so many ways captures the economic trajectory of South Africa after the FIFA World Cup, Murray & Roberts (JSE: MUR) will delist from the JSE on 19 January as part of the liquidation process. Farewell to one of the craziest examples of value destruction that you’ll ever find on our market.
Novus (JSE: NVS) keeps chipping away at Mustek (JSE: MST) shares, buying a further R23k. These numbers aren’t moving the dial at all though.
The parties are satisfied that all conditions have been met
In very good news for South African children, the Curro transaction has met all the deal conditions and will be going ahead. I wondered if we might experience the classic South African regulatory experience of some kind of disaster along the way (usually from the Competition Commission), but thankfully the conditions attached to the approval seem to be acceptable to the parties.
With the TRP compliance certificate due imminently, Curro will soon announce the final timetable for the delisting.
The anti-billionaire peanut gallery has had a lot to say about this deal on social media. I’ll just make my position super clear here: this is a massive get-out-of-jail card for the South African education system. Curro was on a concerning trajectory and simply didn’t make sense anymore as a listed for-profit company.
Hold onto your hats for the Hulamin numbers (JSE: HLM)
Just how bad will the full year be?
Hulamin’s normalised HEPS was down 48% at the halfway mark of the year. Without the normalisation adjustments, HEPS was down a spectacular 81%. It’s therefore not a surprise that the numbers for the year ending December 2025 are going to be sharply down vs. the prior year. The question is: by how much?
A trading statement doesn’t help us much in terms of the percentage. They’ve taken the minimum disclosure approach by indicating that earnings will fall by at least 20%. Remember, when you see the words “at least 20%” in a trading statement, the move can be a lot higher. This is why I’m referring you back to the interim move for context.
They do at least talk about “plant output having stabilised” and “product quality deviations back under control” after a period in which there was a significant integrated plant shut and associated operational challenges.
They also make it clear that they are in compliance with banking covenants and haven’t requested any covenant relaxation from lenders.
The share price is down 38% in the past year. If someone put Hulamin under your tree at the end of 2024, you’ve had a bad time since then.
Labat Africa highlights a “fundamental inflection point” – and the numbers support this (JSE: LAB)
What will this stock achieve in 2026?
Labat’s results are not particularly useful if you focus on the year-on-year percentage changes. This is because there have been significant acquisitions of IT assets, so you aren’t comparing apples with apples, or even any other kind of fruit. Instead, it’s better to just look at the current shape of the income statement and what the business currently makes.
As further evidence of just how much simpler the business is, there is no segmental report for the period. This is because the healthcare segment was disposed of with effect from 1 June 2025, leaving them with only the IT and technology operations in terms of continuing operations.
With revenue of R150.9 million and gross profit of R99.7 million, there’s clearly something to talk about here. Next up comes the strangest part: operating expenses were just R1 million. The group operating profit of R96.9 million is a seemingly impossible margin of 64%!
Cash from operations was R45 million, so there’s a pretty big gap between operating profit and the cash related to those activities. Still, that’s a healthy margin of around 30%.
With HEPS of 3.64 cents for the six months, the share price of 8 cents is looking very appealing. Punters are all over this thing. Could this be the dark horse stock pick of 2026? With the company also releasing a fresh cautionary announcement about a potential transaction, there’s a lot to consider here.
And just for fun, there’s also a very juicy paragraph in the results aimed squarely at SARS:
“The group has made every effort to bring this matter to finality. SARS on the other hand has done everything in its power to stall rectification of unlawful allocations to a debt which does not exist notwithstanding Supreme Court of Appeal case law to finalise tax matters. We have appointed a group of experts to pursue the matter on our behalf.”
I just wish they would fix their website, since I get an “account suspended” screen when I try access it!
Sanlam brings MUFG Bank onto the Shriram register (JSE: SLM)
Having the right players around the table is key to success, especially offshore
Sanlam has built an impressive emerging markets business that includes the Shriram investment in India. There are various companies in Shriram, one of which is Shriram Finance Limited – listed on the National Stock Exchange of India with a market cap of around $18 billion. Sanlam has a 9.5% stake in this company through various vehicles, but the local financial services giant plays a much bigger strategic role than the shareholding would suggest.
The latest deal will see the introduction of Japanese-headquartered financial institution MUFG Bank onto the register. MUFG has a market cap of $170 billion and a footprint across more than 50 countries. MUFG will subscribe for a 20% stake in Shriram Finance Limited for $4.4 billion, subject to regulatory and other approvals.
Aside from access to low-cost funding and the benefits of having an even stronger balance sheet, the parties have also flagged benefits in areas like technology.
Sanlam will dilute to around 7.6%. The other companies in the “promoter group” will take the total to 20.3%, just slightly more than MUFG will have. Sanlam has flagged that there might be a restructure of how its interest in Shriram Finance Limited is held.
There are other transactions underway in India as well. For example, there’s a deal going back to April 2024 in which Sanlam is looking to acquire additional interests in Shriram General Insurance Company and Shriram Life Insurance Company, taking the stakes to 50.99% and 53.69% respectively. Regulatory approvals have taken longer than expected, but they believe that the approvals should come in Q1 2026.
And in yet another deal linked to Shriram Life Insurance Company, Sanlam is looking to acquire a further 14.72% in the company from Piramal Finance. This would take the stake to 68.41% once all the deals are concluded.
India is an exciting and important emerging market in which Sanlam has built a strong position.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
A family trust in the Bekker family sold over R860 million in Naspers (JSE: NPN) shares and around R1.6 billion in Prosus (JSE: PRX) shares to fund the building of hospitality venues in South Africa, the UK and Italy. Must be nice!
An associate of a director of Fairvest (JSE: FTA | JSE: FTB) sold shares worth R21.4k.
An associate of a director of Hammerson (JSE: HMN) bought shares worth over R11.3 million. Separately, the CEO of Hammerson sold shares worth R10.5 million!
A non-executive director of Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) bought shares worth R1.6 million.
The company secretary of Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) sold shares worth R105k.
The CEO of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) bought shares worth R64k in a self invested pension plan.
Frustratingly for Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN), the court was unhappy with the notice given to shareholders of the meeting for the resolutions for the share capital reduction. Despite certain shareholders not really wanting that notice and voting on the deal anyway, the court took the hard stance and has blocked the share capital reduction. Not only does this waste time, but also money – Pan African Resources will have to send out another circular and host another general meeting.
While Novus (JSE: NVS) is still trying to bring the acquisition of Mustek (JSE: MST) to a close, the former is still buying shares in the latter on the market. The latest purchase is worth R39k, taking Novus to a 39.96% stake in Mustek and a 60.25% stake if you include concert parties. It’s a tiny purchase, but a useful reminder of how big the total stake has become.
In a slightly funny announcement, SAB Zenzele Kabili (JSE: SZK) announced that a dividend has been received from AB InBev (JSE: ANH) for the first time – but that “the amount is not very large”. In other words, there is no dividend to SAB Zenzele Kabili shareholders.
An update on Anglo American’s group simplification (JSE: AGL)
They needed to publish this updateunder UK Takeover laws,
Anglo American released an announcement that covers the progress across various group projects. They needed to release this announcement for compliance reasons, but it’s also just a helpful reminder to shareholders of what the group has been doing.
In nickel, Anglo American is working on the final remaining regulatory approval (the European Commission) for the disposal of the business to MMG Singapore Resources for up to $500 million.
In platinum, the demerger of Valterra Platinum (JSE: VAL) is behind them and Anglo exited that entire investment a few months ago. If you want a particular commodity to do really well, just get Anglo American to unbundle it! We saw it with Thungela (JSE: TGA) and now we’ve seen it with platinum. Anglo raised cash proceeds of R44.1 billion from the Valterra sale.
In steelmaking coal, you may recall that they sold the 33.3% interest in Jellinbah Group for around $1 billion. In November 2024 (more than a year ago), they announced the sale of the remaining steelmaking coal business to Peabody Energy for up to $3.775 billion. The deal with Peabody eventually fell through as Peabody walked away from the deal, so Anglo is now on the hunt for a buyer.
They are also looking for a buyer for De Beers, although that feels like a tough business to sell at the moment. You’ll struggle to find a diamond bull out there after the disruption caused by lab-grown diamonds.
And finally, in crop nutrients, they are taking a focused approach with their planned capex spend for 2025 of $0.3 billion. Completion of a full feasibility study is the major milestone that they are chasing.
They’ve certainly had a busy time, particularly as this update excludes anything to do with the merger with Teck Resources!
DRDGOLD crystallises a solar investment (JSE: DRD)
They get to unlock the cash and lock in the long-term supply
DRDGOLD announced the disposal of 100% in Stellar Energy Solutions to NOA Group Assets for R147.5 million. The deal is about to close, with an implementation date of 23 December.
The Stellar project has been underway since 2023, with most of the licences and approvals now in place for the development of a 150MWh solar power plant in Polokwane. The project is therefore “shovel-ready” as they say in this sector. In addition, during 2025, DRDGOLD commissioned a 60MWh solar plant and 160MWh battery energy storage system at the ERGO operations in Gauteng, meeting roughly half of ERGO’s total power needs.
Aside from unlocking cash through the disposal, DRDGOLD has also secured a renewable energy deal with the purchaser of the assets to procure 76GWh per annum in renewable energy, with supply commencing in January 2028.
HEPS is over 4x higher at Labat Africa (JSE: LAB)
This small cap was one of the big surprises of 2025
Labat Africa is busy shaking off its image as a cannabis stock. These days, the company is focused on the IT sector, having made some acquisitions and taken steps to offload the legacy assets. The company is nothing like it used to be, with the trading statement for the six months to November providing further evidence of this.
HEPS is a whopping 4.4x higher, coming in at 5.68 cents vs. 1.29 cents in the prior period. The NAV per share is now 25.13 cents.
And the share price? 7 cents. Just 7 cents! Those who enjoy small caps may want to do some further digging here. Sadly, when I tried to access the website, it wasn’t working. It might do wonders for the valuation multiple if they sort that out sooner rather than later.
WeBuyCars to acquire 49% in GoBid for R377 million (JSE: WBC)
This is a vertical integration play with a pathway to control
WeBuyCars took a nasty knock in the share price recently as the market reacted to a weaker-than-expected year for the company. They’ve been facing an environment of extensive disruption in the automotive sector. The share price has partially recovered since the major sell-off and is still 11% up year-to-date.
The company has now announced the acquisition of 49% in GoBid for R377 million, with put and call options that give them a pathway to control in the future. More on that to come.
Before we get to the deal specifics, we need to discuss what they are actually buying! GoBid is a digital auction platform that focuses on accident-damaged vehicles, cars that aren’t worth repairing and general second-hand vehicles. WeBuyCars currently uses GoBid for the disposal of non-runners, write-offs, salvage vehicles and those that aren’t fit for sale. This is therefore a vertical integration play in which WeBuyCars wants more exposure to the full value chain.
WeBuyCars describes it as a strategy to service the “entire South African vehicle market by acquiring vehicles across all categories and in any condition.”
Back to the deal structure. The call option unfortunately only locks in a stake of up to 51%, with the incremental 2% coming at a price of R15.7 million. It is exercisable during a window period between 6 months and 12 months after the effective date. Although there’s some flexibility here for WeBuyCars, in reality I can’t see a world in which they wouldn’t step over the 50% mark and control the company. You would never buy 49% and stop there.
There are also put and call options related to GoBid undertaking share repurchases based on the profit achieved in 2028 and a P/E multiple of 8x.
Speaking of multiples, WeBuyCars is paying a P/E of 7.8x based on the profits attributable to the 49% holding. The group is trading on a much higher P/E than this, so the deal should be seen as good news for shareholders.
Here’s where it gets interesting: the seller of 40% in GoBid is none other than Taximart, part of the very broken SA Taxi stable. The other 9% comes from various sellers including Fledge Capital.
This is a Category 2 transaction, so no shareholder vote will be required,
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
An associate of a director of Rex Trueform (JSE: RTN) bought N ordinary shares worth just over R20 million.
A senior executive of Mondi (JSE: MNP) exercised shares options and sold the whole lot to the value of R2.8 million.
A director of a major subsidiary of ADvTECH (JSE: ADH) and that director’s spouse sold shares worth a total of R1.3 million.
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought shares for himself and his family worth R36k.
A director of a major subsidiary of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R10k.
Numeral (JSE: XII) is undertaking a 10-to-1 share consolidation and then a private placement of shares for up to R100 million. That’s a big number! Roughly R34.5 million is underwritten by an existing shareholder. With the market cap currently at R12.4 million, this is clearly a huge step forward for the company – and highly dilutive to current shareholders.
In theory at least, Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) is on track to receive the balance of funds from Gathoni Muchai Investments for the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining. I’ll fully believe it when the money is in the bank before the end of December, as there have been many delays and concerning updates around the flow of cash required to complete the deal.
As part of the structuring around the GEM share subscription facility, Mantengu (JSE: MTU) announced the issuance of R3.3 million in shares to an associate of the CEO to make the associate whole. There’s no effective change to the shareholding.
Barloworld (JSE: BAW) is one of the few remaining examples of companies with listed preference shares on the JSE. There’s almost no liquidity in these shares, as only institutional holders tend to participate. There are only 39 shareholders recorded in the register! With Barloworld’s delisting expected to be concluded by the end of January 2026, the company is also looking to redeem and delist the preference shares. At R2.50 per share plus some interest, this is a cash outflow of less than R1 million to redeem all the shares.
Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) is currently suspended from trading due to failure to publish financial results. This is mostly due to the complexities in the accounting treatment of the Inzalo transactions that fell through. They need to release the results for the year ended March 2025 as well as the interims for the six months to September 2025. They hope to get both out the door by the end of January 2026, which would then lead to the lifting of the suspension.
In the year 2000, a lot happened. There was some questionable pop music. There was also the Dot-Com Crisis, followed by a period that saw incredible equity returns in South Africa until the Global Financial Crisis hit in 2007/2008. And during that important period in our local market, we also saw the emergence and initial growth of ETFs in South Africa, spearheaded by Satrix.
To reflect on 25 years of ETFs in South Africa, René Basson joined me to share the important milestones and fascinating stories that defined this journey. In doing so, it became clear just how much has changed in South Africa to make investing accessible to everyone.
Join us as we look back on how Satrix made it possible for everyone to own the market.
Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products
Full Transcript:
The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. This is the last one for 2025 with the team from Satrix, and as has become somewhat of a tradition, we end off with René Basson. She is the Head of Brand and Marketing at Satrix.
It takes me about a year to convince her to actually emerge from the cave of marketing and come and speak on this podcast, and I’m always so glad when she does because we get a completely different lens on what’s happening at Satrix and all the excitement there.
And of course, we’re doing this in the year in which Satrix has turned 25. So, congratulations, René, to everyone at Satrix. Hopefully, there was a nice big birthday party and some cake.
René Basson: There was! Hi Ghost, thanks for having me, and I’m glad to have come out of the cave. It was a great party. We had it two weeks ago, on the 27th of November.
The Finance Ghost: Very nice. Were there 25 candles? Or is that how Satrix saves money and keeps the fees nice and low on these funds, and you only had a few candles to represent 25?
René Basson: We had two big lights, a two and a five. So, you know…
The Finance Ghost: There we go.
René Basson: …No candles.
The Finance Ghost: So yes, the short answer is yes. Very nice. [laughing]
René Basson: Yes.
The Finance Ghost: It’s great to be able to do this with you, and we will be chatting through the history of Satrix. I mean, it’s an obvious thing to do in such a big birthday milestone year.
And I think it’s a great thing to do, because people forget just how important Satrix has been to changing the way that South Africans can invest. Well, I’m not sure if they forget, but they certainly don’t always realise the role that Satrix has really played here.
So, let’s start at the beginning, which seems like a good place to start. That is all the way back in January 2000 – dot-com crash, top of an equity cycle. I spoke to Kingsley a few podcasts ago, and he was explaining what it was like to be working during the dot-com crash.
Not to make anyone feel old, but I was finishing primary school at that time. So, ETFs were not top of mind for me, I’ve got to tell you. But it was also roughly around that time that we saw the start of a bull market in South Africa, something I’ve not really experienced in my professional career until this year, actually.
And that bull market would last all the way until the global financial crisis, when Wall Street kind of ruined the party. This represented the era in which Satrix got off the ground and did a lot of stuff, which we’ll dig into shortly.
But let’s start in 2000. What was the backstory here on the launch of Satrix? Such an important moment for the South African investment landscape.
René Basson: It certainly was. Many people might think our story started on the 27th of November 2000, but in fact, it was early 2000 in January when our first institutional mandate of R800 million was awarded. The client was mCubed, our first institutional client.
So, our former CEO, Helena Conradie, spoke at this event that we had two weeks ago, and she said something that really resonated with me. She said, “Sometimes we forget that the world we now take for granted was once held together by courage and duct tape.”
And I thought that was a really nice way to put it. Because if you think about passive investing or indexation, it was largely unknown back then. The industry didn’t exist. We didn’t have the vocab yet.
So, establishing this capability for Satrix really required the collective effort of a group of (I suppose you could call them) visionary supporters, who recognised the potential of indexation strategies long before this industry even took shape. So, this group of people really took a calculated risk to lay the groundwork of a market that didn’t exist yet.
So, if you move forward from Jan 2000 to just 11 months later, in November, a joint venture between the JSE, Gensec Bank (which was Sanlam Investments’ team back then or Gensec Asset Management), and Corpcapital resulted in the listing of South Africa’s very first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) on the 27th of November 2000. And that was the Satrix Top 40 ETF.
It was a R2.6 billion IPO, and it kind of marked the first formal emergence of this new era of investing in South Africa. Another really interesting thing that Helena mentioned during the speech was that Satrix, which is currently the dominant indexation player in South Africa, was born inside an active house.
And what this really shows is that the investment ecosystem really collaborated to do something brand new. It was the JSE, Deutsche Bank, Corpcapital, Gensec Bank – it was really phenomenal and really shows how everyone came together to develop a new industry. It’s really exciting.
You’re probably wondering about the name – Satrix. The name was decided upon in a meeting of key players. Obviously, a lot of meetings were happening back then.
The story goes that Mike Brown and the team were chatting about names. They were throwing around names like ‘Trax’, ‘A-trax’, ‘B-trax’, ‘Matrix’. Then he said, “What about South African Index Trackers – Satrix?” And it stuck.
So, if you think about that, it’s quite interesting, because there was no creative agency, no strategy consultants involved. It was just this name that stuck, and it’s been synonymous with indexation since then.
Another couple of interesting facts. In 2009, Satrix was jointly owned by Deutsche Bank and Sanlam in a 50/50 partnership, and in 2012, Sanlam bought the Deutsche stake in Satrix. So, apparently, neither Sanlam nor Deutsche Bank wanted to let Satrix go.
They ultimately agreed to do a Texas Auction, where both parties had to write down the price of what they were willing to pay for the other 50%. Both envelopes were opened at exactly the same time, and the highest bid bought the other 50% out.
There were no negotiations, and we both know who ended up and what the outcome was with that. That was the start.
The Finance Ghost: Fantastic! What a great story. I love the ‘courage and duct tape’. That reminds me of my first year of racing at Killarney when I raced two-stroke karts. I started in the Clubman’s series, which is basically where very old and sad karts go to die. It’s like their last hurrah.
You pick them up cheap, and there’s a very good reason for that. I promise you, ‘courage and duct tape’ is quite literally what was holding those things together, more than once. So, that’s a great analogy. I love it.
And also, great point around the name. I think a lot of great startups are named by the founder because they started on a shoestring budget. They don’t have a whole committee of people coming up with a name. And what a good name it is. Uniquely South African. So, I love that.
Let’s go back to that first listing, then, JSE Top 40. I think you said R2.6 billion. Still a big number, especially for 2000. That’s not a small number. Obviously, dwarfed by what we have today in the fund (I’m not sure how big the fund is actually, I’d love you to confirm that), but is that the biggest ETF?
And do you think it’s the product that Satrix is still best known for? Or has the product range gotten so broad now that it’s really the Satrix name that everyone knows, as opposed to Satrix Top 40, like it was all those years ago?
René Basson: It’s an interesting question. I think, possibly yes. It’s probably what we’re most closely associated with. So, it’s certainly our flagship product, and I’d say possibly considered the default when people are asked to think about a South African ETF.
It is our biggest local ETF. The market cap is approximately R20 billion. And then, it’s in the top three. The other two in the top three are the MSCI World Unit Trust and the ETF as well.
The Finance Ghost: Of course, the market cap is a bit bigger now than it was a year ago, because what a year it’s been for the JSE Top 40. Gold stocks have been doing the most, and some other big contributions as well, coming through from the likes of Prosus. So, it’s been a really fantastic year.
I wasn’t joking when I said that this has really been the first time that I’ve truly experienced a bull market in South Africa, where you just see that steady improvement in sentiment coming through, and coming through. I think 2026 is going to get very interesting. Hopefully, nothing goes wrong (touch wood).
Let’s go back to 2006. This was now my matric year, and I was starting to figure out what to study. I actually remember when the news came out about the Satrix Investment Plan. This was very interesting to me because suddenly, it made the market so much more accessible.
And when I went to university and I started with my typical student jobs (which means a combination of some restaurant stuff, and in my case, some tennis coaching as well, which was great), some of that extra money every month could go into a Satrix Investment Plan, even though it was a modest amount every month. I started nice and early, and just a cool product, really.
And this was a big step because it opened products up to retail ownership, just like for me as a student with the small amount that I could put away each month. And it encourages people to invest regularly, which is so important in that wealth-creation journey.
So, let’s hear about the Satrix Investment Plan. It’s now what, roughly 19 years old? So, almost two decades of that thing. What has the investor behaviour been in this plan? How successful has it actually been?
René Basson: Yeah, Ghost, I wish I’d heard about the Satrix Investment Plan back then. I was actually overseas at that point – I’m a little bit older than you, so I was working already.
The plan launched in 2006. It allowed retail investors to invest in the JSE-listed assets for the first time, for, as you said, R300 or, I think it was R1,000 lump sum. This was a significant reduction in the minimum investment requirements at the time, when I think brokerage was around R100 per transaction.
So, it made it really easy for South Africans to start investing. It was a pretty disruptive time, I think you’ve mentioned that. And it was probably considered the precursor to SatrixNOW, which launched nine years later in 2015, in partnership with EasyEquities.
So, in terms of investor behaviour, I think it introduced this monthly, direct debit type of approach to investing, which was quite significant. It created this outlook of consistency, good habit-forming behaviour – something that we at Satrix try to encourage a lot of, still to this day.
And it also reduced the amount that was needed, which was a really big step. Back then, investing was around lump sums. Only wealthy people could do it, because you needed a large amount of cash to invest.
So, I think it opened up the landscape for a new type of investor – who didn’t necessarily want to work via a stockbroker – and made it more accessible. I think there was a significant increase in retail investment participation back then, and it’s been a steady growth.
The Investment Plan has kind of been folded into SatrixNOW, so the platform has been growing steadily. There’s momentum behind it, almost in line with the indexation industry itself.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, people forget, right? Because today, we’re so spoiled. You can go and invest, literally your lunch money (and we’ll get to that), in basically anything you like on the market, now that there’s fractional investing.
Certainly was not the case at that time. So…
René Basson: It definitely wasn’t.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, no, it wasn’t at all. It was a proper game changer to be able to set up a debit order of a few hundred bucks a month. And R300 back then was a number. So, the South African economy was doing better. So, in some respects it was a number, in some respects it wasn’t. But obviously, inflation tells us that that R300 would have been a lot more today.
We’re so spoiled now. You can go and invest literally R50 a month today, if that’s all you can do. Whereas back then, you needed R300 a month, and that was revolutionary. So, just shows where we’ve come from.
Then in 2013, which is now just over a decade ago, that was the first global product. Incredible timing because it basically exactly caught the start of the tech wave. I think the Facebook IPO was probably around that time, and that just dominated the narrative since then, it really has.
So, you had the global financial crisis, then you had the banks getting highly regulated, and people started to look for, “Okay, well, what’s the next source of growth?” (because obviously it’s not Wall Street). And it was tech, and it was software as a service (SaaS). That was built up over that sort of time. That’s how the world changed.
Microsoft was not always an amazing business. It really became one in the past decade. It became way more lucrative. Companies like Adobe went and revolutionised the way people think about software. Now, of course, Adobe is getting really hurt by AI, so the good times come and they go.
But it was fantastic timing for Satrix to actually have this global product. So, today, or maybe if you go back a year or two, everyone was just talking about offshore.
Obviously, over the last year, the JSE has gotten a lot of attention. But at that stage, and just thinking where we were as a country politically last decade, lots and lots of investors were throwing money at management teams to take money offshore and get some action there.
So, did you see that kind of adoption in these global products straight away? Did people jump at it because they were so keen to get that exposure? Or did it actually take a while for that to actually take off?
And then also, what was that product journey? Because I don’t think the first product was an ETF, was it?
René Basson: No, it wasn’t. So, the first global product that we introduced was an offshore unit trust, the Satrix MSCI World Equity Index Fund. The ETF equivalent only came later in 2017, when we listed the international ETFs locally.
So, it was definitely timeous given the equity boom at the time, local sentiment deteriorating, making offshore exposure really attractive, and it served as an initial offshore access point before global ETFs were introduced.
At the time in 2013, the SARB did not allow for CISs to offer offshore listed ETFs back then, which is why we chose to do the unit trust. I think at the time, Deutsche Bank had a product under db Xtrackers.
I guess from a Satrix perspective, this launch caught the beginning of that tech wave, as you mentioned. So, it was really strategically well positioned in response to the appetite of investors back then. And anecdotally, the interest was really strong.
Adoption-wise, if you think back to 2013, this was still an index tracking product, and moving from active to passive is a mindset change. You know, from a personal perspective, I kind of feel like that mindset change has only really taken off in the last year and a half, surprisingly.
And back in 2013, retail investors would still, even now, probably need a significant amount of education around product and index tracking itself. And then, being a unit trust, it would have still needed the traditional distribution channels.
So, I’d say the momentum behind this product was probably gradual, and it built up over time. I can’t quantify it, but if you consider this is now one of our top three flagship funds, you can draw the conclusion that it was and still is a very popular product.
In terms of local versus global in terms of our AUM (Assets Under Management), from an ETF perspective, global is bigger. And from a unit trust perspective, local is a lot bigger from an AUM perspective, which is quite interesting.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that is quite interesting. And we’ll have to see what the next 10 years hold, of course, because lots of uncertainty over what’s going to happen with AI. Is it a big bubble? Although, as I learned on the last podcast with Nico, he doesn’t like that term. But is it a big bubble? (Sorry, Nico.) Or is it actually going to just keep pushing through? It’s going to be super interesting to see what happens.
And that’s the benefit of diversification, and that’s why it’s so important that Satrix has all these different products in the product suite. Because you can go and get this diversification, local, offshore, sector, whatever else you want, basically, using ETFs – which is great.
And now, of course, there’s a way that you can do it that is even easier. Because in 2015 (and this was a really big one for investors in South Africa, this is now a decade ago), you implemented the partnership with EasyEquities.
And again, EasyEquities, when they started, people were not sure. I remember when they came out, there was this overarching distrust. How is this possible? How can I buy a piece of a share? How can the brokerage be this low? So, kudos to what they’ve built over the past decade. Fantastic.
And I’m guessing for the likes of Satrix, through that partnership, that’s been a huge win for you guys as well. Because obviously, it just makes it so much easier for people to go and allocate to a Satrix ETF as part of their broader portfolio, right?
René Basson: Yeah, definitely. So, the partnership with EasyEquities started in 2015 for Satrix. And the story goes that our former CEO, Helena, saw a tweet from Charles, and the rest is history, as they say.
You could definitely say this ushered in a new era of digital investing, with the minimums reduced to zero and this fully digitised interface that EasyEquities had developed. And this innovation and collaboration was recognised. We won multiple FinTech Awards for the platform in partnership with Easy as well. So, really exciting times.
EasyEquities started in 2014, and I also actually remember it. I got a R50 voucher back then, and I obviously had no clue what this was. I was also very sceptical about it. But they had patented that fractionalisation of share rights, which meant that they could solve for two challenges that our business had at the time: the investment minimums and then the access – how do we give more people access to the market?
So, in May 2015, this tweet was discovered. I think Helena had come across it. The Satrix team really liked how EasyEquities presented themselves. They aligned very much in terms of our vision, values, philosophy.
The teams apparently met each other in June 2015. Development of the platform SatrixNOW started in August, and SatrixNOW launched in December 2015. So, if you look at this timeline, from a fintech perspective, this is really incredible. It’s very accelerated.
We launched the app for SatrixNOW in 2020. And I guess from an adoption point of view, if you look again, I mentioned the industry has taken its time. It’s been building momentum over time. The platform has been the same for us – the momentum has built slowly. It’s been steady growth.
We now have over 100,000 investors – active investors. So, we look at it specifically from active versus registered clients. The average age of a SatrixNOW investor is 38. And in terms of gender split, when we launched in 2015, it was 64% male investors, and now we’re sitting at 53% male investors. So, we’re really excited that we’ve been able to encourage more female investors over the years.
I think the average NAV is currently around R180,000, and the majority of our registrations for the platform come from referrals and digital channels. From a marketing perspective, it’s a great stat and a great source of information that helps us develop our marketing strategy as well.
So, yeah, the partnership with Easy has been fantastic. We work with them very closely on a daily basis, and it’s really transformed how Satrix was able to bring our products to market.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I love that. I love the fact that it was a R50 voucher because again, if we just go back to 2006 with the Satrix Investment Plan, the minimum debit order all the way back in 2006 was R300. And then you were getting a R50 voucher to go buy shares. It was so mind-blowing.
Again, people who have only started investing in this kind of pandemic and post-pandemic era don’t understand how weird it was to know that you could take your lunch money and invest it in shares instead. And that was some of the marketing at the time, if I recall correctly – that kind of thing. It was really amazing. I was working in corporate finance at the time, and I remember just how fascinating it was for us to see this thing play out. So, very, very cool.
If we then go forward a few years, 2019, you hit R100 billion AUM. Now you’re on almost R300 billion* AUM. So, it really has been quite a journey.
And as far as I know, there was even a Harvard case study along the way, around the time of the start of the pandemic. How did that come about? That must have been pretty interesting, right?
René Basson: Very, very interesting. And this kind of global recognition of the strategy of the business is really quite something to be very proud of. How it came about, I’m not actually quite sure.
I do think Helena and the team, the ExCo back then, obviously had some connection or were working with the team at Harvard.
The Finance Ghost: Maybe they saw a tweet. That’s how it all happens. Someone tweets something, and then partnerships are made.
René Basson: Exactly. This is really how the world works, right? And the case study was titled Satrix: Competing in the Passive Asset Management Industry in South Africa. It was published in 2020, and it focused on the strategic decisions that Satrix took around fee leadership and market positioning.
And there was a big focus on the 2017 fee cut of the flagship Top 40. And, my understanding is that there were four key ‘teaching’ angles that the case study looked at. So, they looked at the pricing strategy in passive markets – so, that fee cut on the Top 40 (we cut it from 38 bps to 10 bps in 2017), how the business framed that from a market leadership and brand promise point of view.
Then they looked at the competition and consumer perception around the fee cut and price elasticity – brand positioning, long-term commitment to low-cost investing. Then they also touched on the distribution and inclusion part, so the role of SatrixNOW and the partnerships with EasyEquities, for example.
Also touched on the partnership at the time with BlackRock (because we launched all our feeder funds in 2017), and scaling this access and education, and linking to the brand purpose of democratising investing.
And then the final thing was the execution risk and the operational model – so, how was the business delivering low tracking error at scale and supporting growth through internal technology?
So, it was apparently a phenomenal case study. We do have a copy somewhere. I need to haul it out, but yeah, this global recognition was quite something and really impressive.
The Finance Ghost: That is amazing. I mean, a Harvard case study is a pretty big deal. So, well done. It also shows that (and this is something I think especially this year, with everything going on geopolitically, people mustn’t forget) South Africa is on the global map.
René Basson: Definitely!
The Finance Ghost: Much as the US may be trying to turn us into a global pariah at the moment (which they will be very unsuccessful at), we are a really important emerging market. And I think with all the positive momentum we’ve got in South Africa, we’re becoming an even more important emerging market over time.
So, it is nice to see that. I do think that 2026 is going to be a very interesting year for the local market. I really hope that a lot of the momentum will continue.
I’m not sure that gold is going to continue the way it has been because that has been pretty wild. But I’m hoping that a lot of that love will now make its way into the mid-caps and some of the more ‘SA Inc.’ focused businesses. We’ll see what happens.
From your side, as we go into 2026, as we bring this year to a close, what do you think the brand really means to South Africans, and what could the year to come actually hold for you?
Where do you see this thing now as you go and reflect over the holiday? If you’re going to get a holiday, because you’ve told me there are a lot of exciting things coming! So, actually, the team’s keeping you very busy. Maybe that’s the answer, René – 2026 is going to have a lot?
René Basson: 2026 is going to be very busy, but I say this every year. The whole team, we say, “Oh, it’s going to be busy,” and then the next year is even busier, and yeah. 2026, watch this space. We have a lot of stuff going on. So, I’m excited.
But I think, from a brand perspective, the Satrix brand is really, really special (and I know I’m biased because I’m Head of Brand and Marketing). Our tagline is “Own the market.” And frankly, as a marketer, I couldn’t possibly have thought of a better tagline for a business like ours, purely because it really articulates what we do in three words. Instead of buying 40 shares on the JSE to get a slice of the Top 40, you can buy one. So, you literally ‘own the market’ through one transaction.
So, I think from a brand perspective, and what we mean to South Africans, we mean access and inclusion. We do a lot of work around education and trying to help people feel empowered – that they understand financial markets, that they understand what investing is – and getting to the crux of the basics.
And I think a lot of people, myself included – I didn’t know about investing when I went to university. You would have thought I did, but I probably wasn’t that interested either. But I love the work that we do around the education piece, and I think having the app, with a few clicks, you can invest in an ETF. It’s phenomenal.
From a value perspective, I think we mean low cost. Indexation is, by nature, low cost, but I think we’ve taken a lot of strategic decisions over the years to cut fees dramatically, and that definitely shows that we’re doing the best we can for our investors. The Harvard case study was a global endorsement of this and the strategy.
Then there’s the element of trustworthiness. We’re a financial services provider. We’re in a highly regulated industry, which is really phenomenal. And I think South Africa, as you said, we’re on the map. We got out of the grey listing. We’ve got a lot to be proud of.
And I think for our business, over two decades of experience, we really focus on low tracking error, a best-in-class team, and the breadth of product that we bring to the market. We’re constantly innovating, trying to do the best for our investors.
And I think finally, just to say, we’re the favourite. We’ve won a number of People’s Choice Awards, which are voted for by investors like you and me. And that’s kudos to the work that our team does, and I think it’s something to be very proud of.
I heard someone say in our 20th anniversary videos that we did, “People really can own the market because of Satrix.” And I think that’s something that we, as a business, sometimes forget to be really proud of.
It’s been 25 years of hard work, and as I said, industry stalwarts and people who were visionary have put us in this position now, and it’s really exciting to be part of that journey.
The Finance Ghost: 25 years of owning the market. That is the story at the end of the day, and it’s been a fascinating one to watch. I really have enjoyed it. I feel like I’ve lived it for many years before my Finance Ghost initiatives and ambitions there. So, it really has been great.
René, thank you. I think that brings the year to a close in style. It’s been a big year for Satrix. There’s a lot to come in 2026. I’m really looking forward to speaking to the team about everything that’s coming. We’re going to do another year of podcasts.
So, thank you for the ongoing support in Ghost Mail and, of course, the importance that you put on the Ghost Mail audience. I know that they get a huge amount of value from this.
And to listeners, if you’ve missed any of the Satrix podcasts this year, go back and listen to them. They are somewhat timeless in terms of the lessons that we talk about there, the investment insights, and a lot of the concepts. They’re not necessarily based on what’s going on in the world at that point in time.
We’ve done shows ranging from investing for your kids right through to trying to assess valuations in the market and when to be scared and when to double down, and it’s really these skills that will just help you on this journey.
So, René – and to the whole team at Satrix – thank you so much for another lovely year. Can’t wait to do this again in 2026, which means René, I will do another one with you 12 months from now, when we get you out of your cave in December 2026, and we talk about what the 26th year of Satrix has included.
René Basson: I look forward to it, Ghost. Thank you so much!
The Finance Ghost: Thank you, and to all the listeners, have a fantastic December holiday, and we will see you in January.
*Source: Satrix, 30 September 2025
Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products
Anglo American gets the green light in Canada for the Teck Resources deal (JSE: AGL)
They’ve committed to significant capex in Canada over the next 15 years
Anglo American and Teck Resources have received regulatory approval from the Government of Canada for the merger that was announced in September. They manage to use the term “merger of equals” twice in the opening paragraph of the announcement!
As is typical in regulatory approvals of this nature, the parties had to give some investment commitments to the government to get it across the line. They’ve committed to at least C$4.5 billion over 5 years, with the plan being for more than C$10 billion over 15 years. The good news is that Canada and British Columbia are solid destinations for mining investment, so these commitments probably aren’t terribly different to what the companies would’ve planned to do anyway.
This means that regulatory approvals in Australia and Canada are now out of the way. There are various other global approvals required as well.
ASP Isotopes can implement the Renergen deal (JSE: ISO | JSE: REN)
All regulatory approvals have been received
ASP Isotopes is a busy group. In fact, they have announced so many major corporate actions and commercial milestones recently that you would be forgiven for forgetting about their Renergen deal.
The good news is that all required regulatory approvals have been received, with only the TRP Compliance Certificate as the final stamp needed in the process, so the company can shortly implement the deal that will see Renergen shareholders received 0.09196 new ASP Isotopes shares for each Renergen share.
Given all the progress made by ASP Isotopes in opening up the American market for isotopes, it feels logical that they would be the right party to commercialise Renergen’s helium. The truth of it is that this transaction most likely saved Renergen from financial failure, so this deal is definitely a net positive for South Africa in my books.
A production update from the Virginia Gas Project is expected to be released to the market at the end of January 2026.
And so the wage issues in the gold sector begin, with DRDGOLD first in line (JSE: DRD)
Let’s hope that this is solved timeously
DRDGOLD has unfortunately received 48 hours’ notice from NUM and AMCU regarding strike action scheduled for Thursday 18 December at the ERGO operations. The parties have been in wage negotiations since July 2025, successfully resolving 23 of the 25 demands tabled by the unions. Unsurprisingly, the two remaining issues are linked to wages and profit share.
UASA accepted the wage offer, but NUM and AMCU aren’t happy. Ergo’s offer is a guaranteed annual increases of between 6% and 7.5% for each of the next five years, which is well above inflation. There are also profit-based incentives on offer. NUM and AMCU want 12% across guaranteed increases and expected profit shares, bringing us neatly to the memories of when the unions absolutely crushed the mining sector. You don’t even have to go too far back to find such an example. Just look at Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) a couple of years ago.
Do you know anyone who gets a pre-baked double-digit increase per year for five years? Me neither.
Sibanye played hardball with the unions and took a lot of pain along the way. What approach will DRDGOLD take? Only time will tell. One thing we know for sure is that strike action does no favours to the local mining industry, especially when the demands are unreasonable.
Jubilee Metals has bet the farm on copper (JSE: JBL)
Is regret around the exit from PGMs starting to set in yet?
In November, Jubilee Metals announced that the Competition Tribunal had given approval for the sale of the South African chrome and PGM operations. This is a transaction that would’ve made sense when it was initially envisaged, as PGMs weren’t doing particularly well. In contrast, all the focus at the mining giants has been on copper, so a push into becoming a pure-play copper company makes Jubilee a far more obvious acquisition target.
The latter part of that thesis remains intact. The former has changed dramatically, with PGMs now flying and all indications being that the metal has a decent future as regulators realise that not everyone wants an electric vehicle. In fact, the EU has just announced that they are dropping their silly ban on internal combustion engine cars from 2025, a sensible decision in the context of how good hybrid technology has become. And hybrids, of course, still need PGMs.
The unfortunate timing of the exit from PGMs means that Jubilee’s share price has had a horrible year (down 16%) that gets even worse when you compare it to mining peers. Shareholders are understandably frustrated, although they may end up smiling down the line if Jubilee can get the copper strategy to work. Given the level of international activity we’ve seen around copper, it’s hard not to think about the potential acquirers out there.
The latest from the company is the release of results for the year ended June 2025. Chrome and PGMs were still in these numbers, with the disposal anticipated to be concluded in December. The focus is on copper as the continuing operations, with chrome and PGMs shown separately as a disposal group held for sale.
To give you a sense of what to expect in the numbers, most of the commentary around copper actually focuses on the performance in Q1 2026 i.e. the months after the June period. The company wants you to rather pay attention to the significant improvements made since June (copper production up 65% sequentially i.e. vs. Q4’25), particularly as the underlying projects have a strong development flavour to them. There are also important sales of non-core waste assets and copper bearing material that should be recognised in FY 26 for a total of $17.9 million.
As for FY25 though, copper revenue fell by 17.9% to $15.2 million due to lower copper production during a period of significant capex. The 35.4% drop in production led to an 81.1% increase in the cost per ounce to produce copper, so you won’t be surprised to learn that the company suffered a headline loss of 0.62 US cents vs. positive HEPS of 0.08 US cents in the comparable period.
Guidance for FY26 is copper sales of 4,500 – 5,100 tonnes, with rain as a major variable. Even at the low end of guidance, that’s more than double the FY25 amount of 2,211 tonnes.
Those wanting a speculative play heading into 2026 might want to dig a bit further here! It has all the makings of a “market apathy” opportunity and a potentially much better year in FY26. It’s certainly high on the risk rating though, so deep research and appropriate caution would be required.
Nedbank is out of Ecobank (JSE: NED)
Nedbank now has even less exposure to Africa – and at a time when the continent is shining brightly
Hindsight is always perfect, so take that into account as you read about Nedbank’s decision to sell Ecobank at a time when Africa is doing so well. But even in the context of trying to give the benefit of the doubt, if you just look around the JSE at the names that have done really well this year (like the telcos), then you’ll see that growth in Africa is a big part of it. With the dollar continuing to give these frontier markets a pressure release, growth is being achieved without an associated collapse in their currencies.
So yes, hindsight and all that, but banks also have a lot of clever people around the table doing forecasts. What process could possibly have led to a bearish view on Africa in this environment? Nedbank makes the point that they’ve retained exposure to East Africa and of course SADC, but it’s minor compared to what the other legacy banks in South Africa are doing on the continent in pursuit of growth in countries where the juggernaut called Capitec (JSE: CPI) isn’t eating their lunch.
Macro and strategy concerns aside, the sale of the 21.2% stake in Ecobank has been completed. Regulatory approvals were received and the deal closed on 17 December. They offloaded it for approximately R1.7 billion, a small number in the context of the group market cap of R125 billion. Other important context is that the disposal proceeds are almost 3x the Transnet settlement amount of R600 million.
Due to accounting rules and the release of previously recognised foreign exchange losses and fair value moves, this is going to cause the release of a substantial negative amount through the income statement. It won’t affect HEPS and also won’t affect the net asset value (NAV) per share as these losses were previously recognised. It’s a left-pocket-to-right-pocket thing.
Nedbank’s clearest sector peer is Absa (JSE: ABG). The underperformance of Nedbank in the second half of 2025 has been severe:
Schroder European Real Estate’s Apeldoorn problem is here (JSE: SCD)
Their very large and important tenant has given notice
As I’ve written multiple times in the past year, I struggle to understand why any investor would shun the many excellent property companies on the JSE in favour of Schroder European Real Estate. Apart from uninspiring valuation trends in the underlying properties and a significant tax overhang as well, the recent results at Schroder made it clear that they are facing a huge risk at the Apeldoorn property based on a large tenant looking to exit the property.
The company has now announced that the tenant, Koninklijke KPN, has given notice. We are talking about a mixed-use office and data centre property in the Netherlands that contributes a whopping 19% of the company’s portfolio income and 6% of its value. The significant mismatch between income and value is because of the short remaining term on the lease and thus the modest value placed on the income stream. The lease termination is with effect from 31 December 2026.
This gives Schroder a year to figure out how to fill the space. It’s clearly not going to be simple, as they’ve even indicated that alternative uses like a medium-density residential development is an option.
They’ve owned this property since 2018. The unlevered total return is over 8% per annum over the 7 years. It’s now going to come down to whether they can actively manage the property and achieve a decent outcome. The management narrative is bearish, noting that the departure of the tenant is expected to negatively impact the future income profile.
The share price fell 7.5% in response to the news, which means it is down 11.5% year-to-date. That’s such a bad outcome vs. how the rest of the sector has done.
South32’s Mozal Aluminium is headed for care and maintenance (JSE: S32)
They cannot lock in an affordable electricity supply beyond March 2026
Energy costs are a huge factor in the mining industry, particularly when smelters are involved. If you’ve been following the local troubles at Merafe (JSE: MRF), then you’ll know that energy costs can push these smelters into positions where they are no longer economically viable. South32 is dealing with much the same issue at Mozal Aluminium, where they’ve been trying to negotiate a suitable energy package with the government of Mozambique, Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB) and Eskom.
Alas, there’s no luck on this one. Mozal Aluminium will be placed on care and maintenance from 15 March 2026 and they haven’t procured any raw materials to operate beyond that date.
One of the problems has been a drought that put pressure on HCB’s supply. Perhaps some relief will come down the line and the parties will be able to reach an agreement.
For now though, there’s a huge impact on the employees, suppliers and other stakeholders in Mozal Aluminium. The once-off costs are expected to be $60 million and the annual care and maintenance costs are $5 million. This is the full cost, not South32’s 63.7% share. In case you’re wondering, the IDC is wearing 32.4% of the pan and the Mozambique government has 3.9%.
Production guidance up to March 2026 is unchanged. Importantly, the alumina supplied from Worsley Alumina to Mozal will be sold to third party customers instead.
A director of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) bought shares worth R32.5k.
Here’s something unusual: the CEO of SPAR (JSE: SPP) has converted his unvested rights to a performance-related cash bonus into the equivalent value of SPAR ordinary shares that are committed in terms of the minimum shareholding requirements policy. The value is R3.7 million.
Astoria (JSE: ARA) shareholders voted in favour of the delisting of the company and the repurchase of shares from those who won’t be following the company into the unlisted space. Holders of just over 60% of shares in issue have given an irrevocable undertaking to not accept the offer. The maximum acceptance condition for the offer (i.e. those taking it) was 42.5%, so they are okay from that perspective. Those who want to accept the offer of R8.15 per share must notify their brokers before 2nd January. Astoria will be delisted on 6th January. Remember, there’s also an unbundling of Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) shares to Astoria shareholders as part of this process.
Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) has locked in debt funding of R1.675 billion through the process of refinancing loans with Nedbank. To give you a sense of how these things can be structured, the breakdown is as follows: R800 million in five-year term loans (half bullet and half amortising), R275 million as a one-year term loan, R500 million as a three-year revolving credit facility (with possible renewal for two further one-year periods) and R100 million as a general banking facility that is renewable annually. The funding is unsecured and on terms more favourable than the current facilities. A lot of thinking and complexity goes into these funding packages. To this day, lending packages carry the most complex legal agreements I’ve ever seen in my career!
ArcelorMittal (JSE: ACL) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to ongoing discussions around the Longs business that is now in care and maintenance. They are having “engagements to explore alternative solutions” for the business, with the IDC still busy with their due diligence process based on recent announcements.
Hulamin (JSE: HLM) has renewed the cautionary announcement that was first published in August and subsequently renewed in September and November. This relates to the potential disposal of Hulamin Extrusions. Negotiations are ongoing.
NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) announced the appointment of Marius Barbu as COO to succeed Marek Noetzel who will be stepping into the CEO role after serving as COO. This is an internal promotion, as Barbu is Group Asset Management Director and therefore has plenty of experience with the portfolio.
Trustco (JSE: TTO) has decided to suspend any further implementation of the LSH transaction. This deal goes back to January 2025 when shareholders approved the deal on the basis that there wouldn’t be a change in control of the company. The board has now suspended the implementation of the deal based on a need to assess whether the implementation would not in fact lead to a change in control.
CMH repurchased almost 7.2% of shares outstanding (JSE: CMH)
It’s less than half of what they hoped for, but it’s still a good example of capital allocation discipline
CMH did a great job in 2025 of navigating a particularly difficult time in the automotive industry. It feels like the Chinese automotive dragon took a leaf out of Smaug’s book in The Hobbit and went crazy on the industry, with tons of new models and huge disruption seen in segments like affordable SUVs. Despite the pain being experienced by the legacy brands from Europe and elsewhere, CMH responded to the changes and carved out a decent market positioning.
So decent, in fact, that they felt confident to make an offer to shareholders to repurchase up to 15% of their holdings at R35.50 per share. Now, there was never really a chance of all shareholders saying yes for the full amount, but they managed to get acceptances to repurchase 7.19% of shares in issue.
This means that R191 million will be returned to shareholders. Over R172 million of that amount is being paid to directors and their associates!
Ethos Capital receives an improved offer for the residual assets (JSE: EPE)
Marketability discounts continue to hamper the use of NAV
Ethos Capital currently holds shares in Optasia (JSE: OPA) and a portfolio that they refer to as the “residual assets”. Of the total assets on the balance sheet of R1.95 billion excluding cash, the residual assets are carried at R901 million. In other words, dealing with the residual assets properly is very important to investors.
After the company received an unsolicited non-binding offer for the residual assets from RMB as the lead investor for a group of investors that will be finalised in due course, they went off and got feedback from shareholders to get an indication of support for a deal. They spoke to 82% of shareholders and got positive feedback from 70%. Interestingly, as an investment entity, they actually don’t need shareholder approval for the deal and there is no vote. They therefore canvassed support in an effort to go beyond the minimum governance requirements.
Based on the feedback and subsequent negotiations to improve the offer, the terms on the table reflect a value for the residual assets of R640 million. Your eyes aren’t deceiving you: that is indeed a 29% discount to the net asset value (NAV) on the balance sheet. Welcome to the world of marketability discounts and how useless the NAV actually is when you’re looking at a portfolio of assets. If you add on the value of the Optasia stake and the cash in the company, it works out to an implied premium of 10% to the closing price of Ethos shares on 11 December.
There are a couple of other enhancements, including an earn-out linked to the Vertice disposal (expected to be completed in April 2026) and an option for qualifying Ethos shareholders to reinvest in the company acquiring the residual assets should they wish to remain invested.
The board believes that this is the best way to monetise the residual assets, with the Optasia stake expected to be sold gradually once the six-month lock up period after the IPO has expired. They are therefore moving ahead with the deal, subject to several conditions precedent being met.
HCI sends out the circular for the property deal with SACTWU (JSE: HCI)
The HCI share price has changed so much since the initial announcement
You might recall that back in July, HCI announced that they would be offloading properties to SACTWU in a deal that is essentially a share buyback by another name. There was a subsequent announcement in September with further restructuring to try and address the impact on the B-BBEE credentials from the transaction, leading to a watering down of the deal.
There’s been one big change since those announcements: the HCI share price! Up almost 30% over 90 days, the share price is now down just 5.5% year-to-date. That’s very different context to this deal vs. where things were before.
Thankfully for HCI, the repurchase was locked in at R131 per share. That looked generous to SACTWU a few months ago, but it’s now well below the current price of R155.
HCI has released the circular to shareholders that details all the various transaction steps. Given the level of complexity involved, I was pleasantly surprised to see that the costs for the transaction are only R2.9 million!
Will Metair’s luck ever change? (JSE: MTA)
The EU has thrown the book at Rombat
There isn’t an unluckier company out there than Metair. Tracking the company’s progress is like replaying your worst Monday over and over again. If something can go wrong, it usually does.
The latest example in a long line of pain is the European Commission levying a fine of a whopping €20.2 million on Rombat for contravening EU competition law. Metair is on the hook for €11.6 million based on an assumption under EU law that the parent company exercised decisive influence over Rombat since the acquisition in 2012. Notably, the contravention of anti-trust rules was from 2004 to 2017.
The fine is payable over 51 months, although the first instalment is €4.2 million due within 3 months. Not exactly equal instalments!
Metair notes that the decisions made at Rombat that led to the fine were made well before it took over and weren’t identified in the due diligence process by external advisors. Unfortunately, this is a good example of the risks in M&A – particularly in a region with draconian regulators who are far more interested in compliance than jobs or their economy.
Naturally, Metair will assess all legal options. They also need to consider how this affects the South African debt package. This overhang was there for a long time, but I don’t think anyone expected it to be quite this bad.
The share price closed 9.3% lower on the day. It’s now down 55% year-to-date and 84% over three years. What a mess.
SA Corporate Real Estate flags at least 7% growth in the distribution per share (JSE: SAC)
But retail reversions have swung negative
The goal for REIT investors is to earn a yield and to see it grow at least in line with inflation. Chasing much higher growth rates is reserved for other equities, with property as more of a hybrid between fixed income and equity. In SA Corporate Real Estate’s pre-close update, they’ve indicated growth in the total distribution of between 4% and 5%, which means the distribution per share is expected to increase by at least 7%. That certainly does the job.
Digging into the portfolio is interesting, as this fund has some differences vs. what you’ll find elsewhere. For example, there’s a substantial residential component in the Afhco portfolio where they are expecting to sell almost 100 apartments a month.
But we begin with the retail portfolio with a focus on convenience retail. The vacancy rate has been consistent at around 2.3%. They made good progress in replacing poorly performing anchor tenancies in three malls, where Pick n Pay was replaced by Checkers in two such examples. Unfortunately, reversions in the retail portfolio swung into the red, coming in at negative 1.8% thanks to pressure from a single apparel tenant.
The industrial portfolio is fully let and has anticipated positive reversions of 3.7%, so that’s a faultless performance in that portfolio.
On the residential side, the vacancy rate is 3.7% and the anticipated residential rental increase is 3.0%. They had some negative reversions related to long-standing tenants, but things are positive overall.
In the portfolio in Zambia, the expected increase in distributable income is between 5% and 6%. They achieved positive reversions in the retail mall in that portfolio, measured in USD.
On the balance sheet, they refinanced facilities at lower margins, which means the weighted average cost of debt has come down. This is obviously very helpful for equity investors. When rates come down, the share of the underlying economics shifts from banks to equity investors (and vice versa). The loan-to-value is currently at 38.6% excluding new acquisitions, so the balance sheet is in solid shape overall. You may recall that they raised R450 million in equity through a private placement in mid-November.
Good news for the Stefanutti Stocks balance sheet (JSE: SSK)
Along with the Eskom proceeds, they’ve also closed important disposals
After a long journey to get to this point, Stefanutti Stocks has finally closed the sale of the businesses in Mozambique and Mauritius. All payments have been received, so this helps in further de-risking the balance sheet.
Along with the recent proceeds from the Eskom settlement, this has allowed the company to make a capital repayment of R550 million to Standard Bank. The outstanding amount owed on the facility has dropped sharply from R850 million to R300 million.
When risky stocks dig themselves out of a hole, it can be incredibly lucrative for the punts who took a chance. Stefanutti Stocks is up more than 200% over three years.
Valterra Platinum gets an investment grade credit rating from S&P (JSE: VAL)
Thisis a sign of how much better things are in the PGM sector
Valterra Platinum’s life as a separately listed company is going well at the moment, not least of all thanks to vastly improved conditions in the PGM sector. S&P has given the company an investment grade credit rating of BBB-, reflecting the rating agency’s expectation of Valterra being the top global producer of platinum and a top two global producer of PGMs.
One of the reasons given for the rating is the “moderate levels” of net debt and an expectation by S&P that the company will be in a net cash position from 2026. This informs a stable outlook, with an expectation of adjusted debt to EBITDA being below 1.5x and funds from operations being over 60% of debt for the next few years under various PGM price scenarios.
Of course, they also highlight regulatory risks in South Africa, referring to it as an “evolving regulatory environment…including empowerment-linked mining license renewals and fractious labor and community relations.” As always, the cost of borrowing for our local companies is strongly linked to how South Africa is viewed as an investment destination.
As for S&P’s views on the PGM market, they reference the slowing pace of the transition to electric vehicles, sustained growth in hybrid vehicle sales and even an improvement in jewellery demand, in some regard due to substitution of gold which is currently at a much higher price.
If you would like to read the entire S&P press release related to the rating, you’ll find it here.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
I’m not sure what the backstory is, but a “restructuring of personal interests” has seen Simon Peile transfer Sygnia (JSE: SYG) shares worth R703 million to his wife and Sygnia CEO, Magda Wierzycka. That’s a big number!
Here’s another example of what generational wealth looks like: the CEO of AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) sold shares worth around R54 million. It’s been a truly insane year in the gold sector. Separately, another director sold an entire share award worth R27.7 million (even though the announcement noted that it was “in part to fund tax liability” – sure, that’s technically true, but the reality is he sold the full award).
A prescribed officer of Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP) sold shares worth R8 million.
A non-executive director of Coronation (JSE: CML) sold shares worth R5.8 million.
An executive director at Richemont (JSE: CFR) sold shares worth R3.8 million.
A2 Investment Partners bought another R1.6 million worth of shares in Nampak (JSE: NPK). Due to the board representation, it comes through as director dealings.
The COO of ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) bought shares worth roughly R940k.
The company secretary of Vodacom (JSE: VOD) sold shares worth R269k.
An independent non-executive director of Mantengu (JSE: MTU) bought shares worth R236k.
A director of a major subsidiary of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R188k.
A director of Momentum (JSE: MTM) bought shares worth R182k.
A director of NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) and two family members bought shares worth a total of R125k.
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought another R66k worth of shares for his family.
Here’s an unusual one: although there was no dealing in Vunani (JSE: VUN) shares, three executive directors of the company increased their holdings in Vunani due to a share buyback from a minority shareholder further up in the structure at Bambelela Capital, their investment vehicle that holds 49.2% of Vunani. I suspect that indirect holdings change pretty often on the JSE without an associated announcement like this one! Well done to them for this disclosure.
As you would imagine, the directors at Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) participated to a large extent in the recent capital raise that included a clawback offer and a debt conversion. The numbers aren’t a fair reflection of cash changing hands though, as significant portions were due to debt converting to equity. The announcement doesn’t give the split for each director, so I’ll rather not include the values here. The point is that the directors supported the raise.
Here’s another example of how property sector directors use their shares as security for loans. A director of Fortress Real Estate (JSE: FFB) has pledged shares worth R57 million as security for a loan of R25 million. This also gives you insight into the level of coverage that banks look for when using equity as security.
ISA Holdings (JSE: ISA) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a non-binding expression of interest received from a party that is interested in acquiring a controlling shareholding and delisting the company. At this stage, there is no firm intention to make an offer on the table.
Attacq (JSE: ATT) has indicated that Peter de Villiers will be appointed as interim CFO. Raj Nana is departing with effect from 31 January 2026 and the company is unlikely to find a suitable replacement before then.
There’s very little liquidity in the shares of Marshall Monteagle PLC (JSE: MMP), so I’ll just mention the results for the six months to September 2025 down here in the Nibbles. Revenue from continuing operations was up 16% and total HEPS jumped spectacularly from 6.2 US cents to 22.7 US cents. Cash was down 25% as they allocated capital from cash to global equities. The interim dividend of 2 US cents is in line with the prior period despite the jump in earnings. The NAV per share increased by 9.4%.
Europa Metals (JSE: EUZ) is sitting on cash after selling the Toral project to Denarius Metals Corp. and then subsequently selling Denarius shares in the market. They still hold a chunk of Denarius shares and they are looking to acquire Marula Mining in a share-for-share deal. But what they can’t find is a suitable use for the cash from the Denarius shares sold thus far, so they’ve decided to rather return £1 million in capital to shareholders. That’s good discipline.
Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) is making some progress in catching up on its financial reporting. They’ve now released results for the six months to September 2024. Although I’m not sure how helpful such old numbers will be to shareholders until newer numbers are available, they experienced a jump in revenue from R1.6 billion to R2.2 billion and a swing in normalised EBITDA from a loss of R81 million to profit of R272 million. HEPS was 21.56 cents vs. a loss of 90 cents in the comparable period.
Not that anyone is going to miss this company on the market, but Sail Mining Group (JSE: SGP) is making an offer to shareholders to repurchase its shares at 7.2 cents. The shares have been suspended since July 2022. The price is a 20% premium to the last price at which it traded.
The attempts to revive PSV Holdings (JSE: PSV) have been going on forever, with various discussions between the liquidator and a party looking to recapitalise the company. They might be out of time, as the JSE has sent them a letter advising of the intention to proceed to terminate the listing. The JSE is clearly running out of patience here.
A festive staple with a surprisingly cutthroat backstory, the poinsettia’s rise to Christmas royalty is tangled up with colonial meddling, corporate monopolies, and a global plant arms race. This is the unlikely tale of how a fragile Mexican shrub became one of the most powerful products in the modern holiday economy.
Every year, just after November, it emerges. In great crimson waves, it stakes its claim, conquering territory at nurseries, grocery stores, and reception desks around the country.
Christmas is nigh, because the poinsettia has arrived.
With roughly 200 million plants sold worldwide annually and a retail haul well over the $1 billion mark, the poinsettia is, without exaggeration, one of the most commercially successful plants on Earth. Not bad for a humble Mexican shrub with a name that sounds like something you’d see a podiatrist for.
But those showy red leaves (yes, those are technically leaves, not flowers) are concealing a story absolutely heaving with geopolitics, patent wars, botanical espionage, dethroned monopolies, and a global supply chain so tangled it makes Christmas lights look organised.
So how did cuetlaxochitl – a plant once used to dye cloth and treat fevers – become the undisputed queen of Christmas décor?
A shrub with divine connections
Long before Woolies flooded their checkout displays with them, the poinsettia lived quietly in its native habitat of Southern Mexico. To the local Nahua people of the 14th century, it was less of a festive decoration and more of a practical aid; they mostly used it for dye and medicine.
Everything changed when the Spanish arrived and, in a rare moment of colonial subtlety, didn’t rename it something horrendous like “Royal Scarlet Colonial Flower of His Majesty”.
Instead, Franciscan monks in the 1600s christened it “flor de Nochebuena” – aka “Flower of the Blessed Night”. They incorporated it into Christmas celebrations, drawn to its star-shaped leaf pattern (which they said symbolised the Star of Bethlehem) and its vivid red bracts (representing Christ’s sacrificial blood). The white variants suggested purity. Hence, the plant’s connection with Christmas, one of the most important holidays on the Christian calendar, was firmly established.
For a few centuries, the plant was a local superstar, beloved in Mexico but virtually unknown everywhere else. Then Joel Roberts Poinsett walked onto the scene like the main character and turned everything upside down.
The diplomat who couldn’t stay out of trouble
Poinsett, a wealthy Southern Unionist, slave owner, and America’s very first diplomat to Mexico, had what you might politely call a talent for making himself unwelcome. During his tenure in the late 1820s, he managed to irritate just about everyone – partly because he tried to buy Texas (unsuccessfully), and partly because he simply couldn’t resist meddling.
But in 1828, just before Mexico finally told him to please pack his bags and go home, Poinsett visited the town of Taxco. There, he spotted flor de Nochebuena and had what can only be described as a botanical epiphany. He immediately shipped cuttings of the plant back home to the US.
A few years later, the poinsettia – now renamed after its “inventor” – made its American debut at a flower show in Philadelphia. People lost their minds. No-one had ever seen anything like it. Demand skyrocketed, and supply raced to keep up.
There was just one problem: the early poinsettia was actually terrible at being a commercial product. It wilted after 2–3 days, it hated travel, and it dropped leaves the moment you looked at it funny. Basically, it was the houseplant equivalent of a Victorian child who took ill if the weather changed unexpectedly.
If the poinsettia was going to make it in the big leagues, it was going to need a miracle. Fortunately, it got the Ecke family.
The dynasty that turned poinsettias into Christmas royalty
In 1900, German immigrant Albert Ecke set off for Fiji to open a wellness spa, but never quite made it there. On the way, he stopped in Los Angeles, liked the sunshine, and simply… stayed. His detour would go on to change agricultural history.
Not one to sit on his hands, Ecke built a dairy, then a fruit orchard, then started selling cut flowers, including poinsettias. He therefore had his ear to the ground when the big poinsettia boom started to rumble. Wisely, Ecke diverted his attention and made poinsettias the centre of the business, earning a relatively good living as a result.
His son, Paul Ecke, took over the family flower farm in the 1920s and had two big insights: 1) poinsettias needed better genetics and 2) the public needed better marketing. He introduced a secret grafting technique (a closely guarded method learned from an amateur gardener in Germany) that produced poinsettias with fuller shapes, more branches, sturdier stems, and longer shelf lives. In other words: consumer-proof poinsettias.
Then came the Plant Patent Act of 1930. Ecke immediately registered dozens of his unique cultivars, shutting out copycat competitors faster than you can say “intellectual property rights”. But Paul’s son, Paul Jr., took it even further. Unlike his father, he understood the power of the media. He knew that in order to get people to buy something, you needed to put it where they could see it. He flooded women’s magazines and breakfast television shows with free poinsettia samples. He (and his plants) even appeared on The Tonight Show. In doing so, he transformed the poinsettia from a plant into a seasonal identity.
By the 1990s, the Ecke empire was moving 500 000+ potted plants and more than 25 million cuttings a year. Their market share was a staggering 90%. As one journalist at the time so succinctly put it: “The Eckes of Southern California are to poinsettias what De Beers is to diamonds.”
But just like diamonds, that dominance was about to crack.
The graduate student who broke the monopoly
In 1992, a graduate student named John Dole got his hands on an Ecke cutting and did what graduate students have always done best: he tinkered. Piece by piece, experiment by experiment, he worried at the problem until the industry’s most closely guarded secret finally gave way. Dole had reverse-engineered Ecke’s top-secret grafting method – and instead of locking it back up, he published it. The effect was immediate and explosive.
Once the technique was no longer proprietary, the mystique vanished overnight. Anyone could now grow poinsettias with the same full, lush form that had defined Ecke plants for decades. Competitors rushed in, and the 1990s turned into a kind of poinsettia renaissance. Breeders pushed boundaries, colours multiplied, sizes shifted, patterns grew bolder, and varieties emerged with names that sounded less like plants and more like 80s rock bands – think Premium Picasso, Monet Twilight, and the like.
Then the big-box retailers arrived, and the tone of the industry changed again. Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart recognised poinsettias as the ideal holiday loss leader: seasonal, emotional, and disposable enough to sell by the million. Prices plunged, sometimes as low as 99 cents a plant. Margins collapsed. Growers were squeezed hard, small farms disappeared, consolidation accelerated, and production steadily migrated offshore.
By 2012, even the once-invincible Ecke empire could no longer stand apart. It was sold to Dutch giant Dümmen Orange, one of the largest plant breeders in the world. An era ended. In its place, a globalised supply chain took root.
A global empire with one major omission
Today, Dümmen Orange sells roughly 60 million poinsettias a year – more than half of the global supply – which means there’s a good chance the plant sitting on a table at your local nursery traces its lineage back to them. The poinsettia may feel ubiquitous and anonymous now, but behind that familiarity sits an industrial-scale operation quietly dominating a once-fragmented market.
There’s an irony threaded through this success. While the world buys millions of poinsettias every December, the country where the plant originated, Mexico, still struggles to sell its own potted versions in the United States. A century-old soil restriction means Mexican growers are allowed to export cuttings, but not fully grown plants. As a result, Mexico earns around $12 million a year supplying the raw genetic material, while the far more lucrative potted-plant market remains firmly out of reach.
For many growers, the resentment is palpable and understandable. This is, after all, their native plant. Yet the poinsettias filling homes and shopping centres around the world are overwhelmingly patented, branded, and controlled by foreign firms, their value captured far from the soil where the species first evolved.
In Mexico, the tension has even seeped into language. “Poinsettismo” has become a slang insult, used to describe someone arrogant or intrusive. A pointed jab, especially when you remember that the plant’s global fame began with one very intrusive American diplomat.
A holiday icon, no matter the politics
For all the geopolitics, the patents and supply chains, the monopolies and student-led disruptions, the rise of Dutch mega-breeders and the slow grind of global consolidation, one thing has remained stubbornly unchanged: nothing signals Christmas quite like a poinsettia.
What began as a Nahua medicinal dye has become a billion-dollar global holiday symbol – a star-shaped burst of colour that shows up, unfailingly, every December. It’s a reminder that history rarely moves in straight lines, and that the objects we take for granted often carry stories that are stranger, messier, and far more interconnected than we imagine.
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.
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