Sunday, April 26, 2026
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A curious case of choreomania

We like to think virality is a modern invention, powered by code and connectivity. But in 1518, one city proved that human behaviour has always been contagious – no technology required.

In 2026, it doesn’t take much to make millions of people do the same thing at once. A dance on TikTok, a phrase repeated often enough on X, a format that spreads so quickly it begins to feel less like a choice and more like a reflex. We tend to think of this as a feature of the internet age, something born out of algorithms and attention spans and the peculiar economics of social media. We call it “going viral”.

Five hundred years ago, in a small European city, something else went viral – but without a screen in sight.

A woman steps into the street

In the summer of 1518, a woman in Strasbourg (in modern-day France) left her house and began to dance.

There was no music playing that anyone else could hear, but the woman danced anyway. She did not stop after a few minutes, or even a few hours. She ignored concerned relatives and friends who tried to talk to her. She continued through the day and into the night, returning to the street again the next morning as if compelled by something she could neither explain nor resist.

At first, she drew a crowd. Then, gradually, she drew participants.

Within a week, several dozen people had joined her in the dance. By the end of the month, the number had swelled into the hundreds. They danced in the same streets, in the same heat, for days on end. Contemporary accounts describe blistered and bleeding feet, bodies collapsing from exhaustion, and a growing sense of alarm among those watching from the edges. Some sources suggest that deaths followed, though the exact number remains uncertain.

The city had not planned for this. There was no precedent to guide them and no framework through which to understand what they were seeing. What they had instead was a rapidly spreading case of choreomania, aka dancing fever. 

A pattern of contagion

Strasbourg’s outbreak earned its place in the history books because it is one of the most well-documented examples, but it was far from unique. Across medieval Europe, there are repeated accounts of similar episodes of choreomania, each one as baffling as the last.

In 1374, a wave of dancing mania swept through Aachen in Germany and spread outward, reaching towns across the region with a speed that would have been impressive even by modern standards. Chroniclers described crowds moving in unison, sometimes for days, sometimes until they could no longer stand. Earlier still, in 1237, a group of children in Erfurt (also in Germany) reportedly danced their way to Arnstadt, a journey of just over 20 kilometres that left observers struggling to make sense of what they had witnessed. It’s rumoured that this event inspired the writing of the Pied Piper of Hamlet. 

Medieval records tell of disrupted church services, processions derailed by sudden outbreaks of movement, and communities caught in cycles of behaviour that seemed to spread from person to person without any clear cause.

What makes these accounts striking is not just their frequency, but their similarity. Different places, different decades, and yet the same underlying pattern: an individual begins, others follow, and within a short span of time, the behaviour takes on a life of its own.

Diagnosing the undiagnosable

When the Strasbourg outbreak gathered momentum, the city’s leaders turned to medicine, or what was called medicine in the early 16th century.

This was a discipline still shaped by humoral theory, where imbalances in bodily fluids were thought to explain most ailments. Physicians examined the dancers and arrived at a diagnosis that, to them, seemed entirely reasonable. The condition was attributed to “overheated blood,” a state in which excessive heat in the body needed to be released.

It was, by their standards, a logical conclusion. The summer had been unusually warm, and the idea that physical agitation might be linked to internal heat fit within the medical thinking of the time. The prescription followed naturally from the diagnosis: if the problem was heat, then the solution was movement. The afflicted needed to continue dancing until the excess had been expelled.

City officials accepted this reasoning and acted on it immediately. Rather than attempting to contain the outbreak, Strasbourg’s authorities chose to accommodate it.

A stage was erected in the city centre, near the horse market, to give the dancers a designated space. Musicians were brought in to provide accompaniment, their rhythms intended to guide and perhaps even regulate the movement. Strong men were hired to assist those who faltered, lifting them up so that they could continue to dance.

The intention was curative, but the outcome was the opposite. By formalising the behaviour, the city transformed a spontaneous outbreak into a sustained event. The presence of music gave the dancing a structure it had previously lacked, while the stage turned it into a spectacle that drew further attention. What had begun as a disturbance became, in effect, a festival.

The number of participants did not decline. If anything, it grew.

Observers who might have kept their distance were now drawn closer, and those on the margins found themselves stepping into the centre. The boundary between witness and participant blurred, and with it, any sense of control the authorities might have hoped to maintain.

A change in belief, not in behaviour

As the days passed and the situation failed to improve, confidence in the original diagnosis began to erode. The city’s leaders were forced to reconsider their approach, and in doing so, they turned to a different framework of understanding.

If the body could not explain what was happening, perhaps the answer lay elsewhere.

The thinking shifted from medicine to morality. The dancing was no longer seen as a physical ailment but as a manifestation of divine displeasure. It may sound like a leap in logic to our modern ears, but in a society where religious belief shaped nearly every aspect of life, this interpretation carried weight.

The response changed accordingly. Music and dancing were banned outright, and the emphasis moved toward penitence and ritual. The afflicted were taken to a shrine dedicated to Saint Vitus, a figure believed to wield the power to inflict or relieve curses. There, they were made to participate in ceremonies intended to restore balance. Accounts describe the use of red shoes, the performance of specific rites, and the hope that submission to a higher authority might succeed where earthly measures had failed.

Throughout this shift, one detail remained constant: the dancers continued.

The limits of explanation

The dancing plague of Strasbourg lasted for almost two months. At its peak, an estimated 400 people were dancing at once. While exact figures are debated, some historical accounts suggest that up to 15 people per day were dying from exhaustion, heart attacks, or strokes.

The eventual end of the outbreak is recorded with far less detail than its beginning. At some point, the numbers dwindled, the movement slowed, and the city returned to something resembling normal life. What caused the cessation is no clearer than what caused the onset.

Over the centuries, various theories have been proposed. One of the most persistent is ergot poisoning, caused by rye infected with the fungus Claviceps purpurea. In damp conditions, the fungus replaces the grain with dark growths called sclerotia, packed with toxic alkaloids chemically related to lysergic acid – the precursor to LSD. The result can be vivid hallucinations, muscle spasms, and a creeping disorientation.

In medieval Europe, where rye was a staple, exposure wasn’t unusual. Entire communities could consume contaminated grain, triggering outbreaks of what was called “St. Anthony’s Fire”, marked by convulsions, seizures, and distorted perceptions of reality.

At first glance, it feels like a neat explanation for irrational, collective behaviour. But the details don’t quite hold. Ergot poisoning tends to incapacitate rather than mobilise. Severe cases leave people too weak or disoriented for prolonged activity, and symptoms are typically episodic – not the sustained, synchronised dancing seen in Strasbourg. As a standalone explanation, it struggles to account for the scale and duration of the outbreak.

The theory that carries more weight today is mass psychogenic illness – collective behaviour shaped by shared stress and belief. Strasbourg in 1518 was already a city under strain, worn down by famine and disease. In that kind of environment, the line between individual experience and collective response starts to blur.

The dancing, in this view, was not random. It may well have been a manifestation of a society under pressure, expressed through the only language it had available.

What remains

There is a temptation to treat the dancing plague as an isolated curiosity, a story that belongs firmly to the past. Its details are strange enough to encourage distance, and its explanations are rooted in a worldview that feels far removed from our own.

And yet, the underlying dynamics feel oddly familiar, even in our modern age. 

A behaviour emerges without warning. It spreads through observation and imitation. Attempts to control it serve, in some cases, to accelerate it. Explanations shift as understanding falters, moving from the physical to the moral to the symbolic. Eventually, the phenomenon exhausts itself, leaving behind nothing but a record.

In 1518, this played out in the streets of Strasbourg, with bodies in perpetual motion and a city struggling to keep pace with what it could not explain.

In 2026, the setting is different, the tools more sophisticated, and the scale far larger. The platforms may have changed, but the choreography feels familiar. Somewhere, someone starts something. Others follow. Before long, participation begins to feel less like a decision and more like a current that sweeps you away.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Cashbuild | Clicks | Sasol | Spear REIT | Valterra Platinum)

Some positive momentum at Cashbuild (JSE: CSB)

Cashbuild South Africa had a much better time in Q3

Cashbuild has released an operational update for the third quarter. It’s a goodie, with group sales up 9% year-on-year. This was achieved through a combination of 4% growth in existing stores and 5% growth from new stores.

If you adjust for the various acquisitions and closures, then comparable store growth was 6% for Q3 and 3% year-to-date. That’s a proper acceleration in sales!

In happy news, this 9% growth is thanks to an 8% uptick in volumes for the quarter, with 4% volume growth in existing stores. Selling price inflation was only 0.6%.

Digging deeper, we find that Cashbuild South Africa was up 7% from existing stores in Q3. That’s the highlight for me, as this is the momentum I’ve been waiting for as a shareholder.

The share price is sitting at pretty depressed levels right now:


Are Clicks shareholders rotating from safety to risk? (JSE: CLS)

The P/E multiple is finally coming back down to earth

On the JSE, my observation is that the very best companies are able to support P/E multiples in the low 20s. But you can see numbers closer to 30x for a long time, particularly when the market is in a risk-off mode and only interested in quality companies.

With more growth opportunities emerging on the JSE with each passing day, the P/E at Clicks has become harder to justify. I believe that this is why we saw the share price drop by 8% on Thursday in response to the release of results.

Clicks isn’t exactly executing poorly. Group turnover was up 7.4%, trading margin was maintained at 9.1% and diluted HEPS was up 8.1%. Cash quality of earnings is evident, with the interim dividend up 8.4%.

And with return on equity of 45.7%, shareholders shouldn’t be unhappy with management reinvesting their capital.

If we look deeper, pharmacy sales increased by 8.6% and took their retail pharmacy market share to 24.9% from 24.2%. That’s a quarter of the market in just one group! Importantly, the system issues they had towards the end of 2025 have now been resolved, having impacted retail turnover by roughly 0.9%.

Broader retail turnover was up 7.4%, with comparable stores up only 3.1%. This is where it starts to get really difficult to justify the high P/E. Margin was up 70 basis points, thanks mainly to private label volume growth.

On the wholesale side, distribution turnover was up by 13% and margin declined by 50 basis points.

With retail costs up by 6.1% and distribution costs up by 6.8%, the group trading margin managed to come out flat. The underlying divisions have huge structural differences in margin, with retail running at a trading margin of 10.3% and UPD (wholesale) at just 2.5%!

Share buybacks helped drive the result, with headline earnings up by just 6.4%. Extensive buybacks took HEPS growth to 8.1%. If they want to support the share price, they should ramp up the buybacks now that the shares are trading at a lower valuation.

The outlook for the year ending August 2026 is HEPS growth of between 4% and 9%. The market has spoken about how low this is relative to the P/E multiple, with ugly negative momentum in the Clicks share price.

The really interesting chart is to compare Clicks and arch-rival Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP). I’m really enjoying the strategy at the latter at the moment, with plenty of talk around the power of data. The market seems to agree:

But what do you think. Which one would you choose to hold over the next 3 years?

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Clicks or Dis-Chem?

Would you prefer to buy Clicks or Dis-Chem with a 3-year view?


Promising signs at Sasol (JSE: SOL)

And a reminder that having an energy company in South Africa is important

Unsurprisingly, Sasol takes the opportunity in the latest quarter to point out how valuable it is to have a local energy player. With all the conflict and supply worries in the Middle-East, we are able to produce at least some of our fuel (including jet fuel) locally.

The destoning plant has continued to improve coal quality at Sasol, leading to higher coal production for the latest quarter and reduced external coal purchases in the Mining segment.

On the Gas side, Mozambique’s flooding during the quarter was a huge issue. Gas production was down 10%. The related force majeure was lifted in mid-February 2026.

In Fuels, production at Secunda Operations fell by 7% on a sequential basis, i.e. Q3’26 vs. Q2’26. Production is up 8% on a year-to-date basis though.

The Chemicals Africa business enjoyed a 14% increase in revenue on a sequential basis, driven by a 9% increase in volumes and a 4% increase in sales prices. But year-to-date sales revenue is flat, with the basket price offsetting the gains in volumes.

In Chemicals America, sales revenue is up 6% on a sequential basis and 4% on a year-to-date basis. They operated above nameplate capacity during the third quarter – long may that last!

Chemicals Eurasia achieved a 12% uptick in revenue on a sequential basis and 7% year-to-date. A solid uptick in prices drove this outcome.

The outlook is encouraging, with fuel sales volumes growth revised upwards. They now expect 10% to 15% growth instead of 5% to 10%.

Gas production volumes have been revised downwards to an expected drop of 5% to 10% vs. FY25. Previous guidance in Gas was for a dip of 0% to 5%.

To make shareholders feel better, capital expenditure has been revised lower by R2 billion – to an expected range of R20 billion to R22 billion. That’s good news for free cash flow, probably the single most important driver of Sasol’s valuation.


Spear REIT raised their R1 billion in fresh equity with no problems at all (JSE: SEA)

Just look at that pricing!

As mentioned in the previous day’s Ghost Bites, Spear REIT asked the market for R1 billion in fresh equity to support the growth ambitions across new acquisitions and development of existing properties.

The market answered the call with enthusiasm, with the raise being multiple times oversubscribed. The pricing closed at a premium of 0.1% to the 30-day VWAP, an exceptional outcome for the company and for shareholders.

The price of R12.70 per share may be a slight discount to spot, but the 30-day VWAP is an especially important basis for comparison during such a volatile period in markets.


Year-on-year numbers at Valterra Platinum are heavily skewed by previous flooding (JSE: VAL)

The sequential numbers might be the better basis for comparison

Valterra Platinum released a production report for the quarter ended March 2026. With such severe disruptions at Amandelbult in the comparable period (Q1’25), the year-on-year percentage movements aren’t helpful. The very last thing you can do is extrapolate a 78% jump in refined PGM production!

Here’s something that is worth looking at instead: Q1’26 refined PGM production of 778,500 ounces is the lowest number we’ve seen on a rolling 12-month basis. Q2’25 was 954,000 ounces, Q3’25 was 981,500 ounces and Q4’25 was 1,039,400 ounces.

Despite what appears to be a slower start to the year, production guidance for 2026 is intact across volumes and operating costs per ounce. Energy costs based on the Middle East conflict are clearly a risk here.

On the plus side, the average basket price was the highest since Q2’21, driven by sharp increases in ruthenium, platinum and rhodium.

Results of yesterday’s poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
  • Zeder (JSE: ZED) has released results for the year ended February 2026. The company has made much progress with its value unlock strategy, with the sum-of-the-parts valuation being R1.50 as at the end of Feb. The circular for the sale of Zaad (excluding certain assets) was distributed to shareholders on 31 March 2026. The meeting is scheduled for 30 April. Assuming it all goes through, Zeder’s remaining asset will be an indirect 48.6% interest in May Seed. The strategy will no doubt be to find a buyer for this asset, and distribute the proceeds to shareholders.
  • AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) is in the process of trying to sell Activo. That business has been negatively impacted by a key customer, leading to a revision of the terms of the transaction. They are looking at an upfront payment of R100 million, with earnouts up to R90 million. There’s also a potential adjustment based on working capital at the date of the deal closing. It’s a huge drop in price, as the previous terms were based on an upfront payment of R350 million and an earnout of up to R250 million! Ouch.
  • ISA Holdings (JSE: ISA) is disposing of a 50% stake in DataProof for R62 million. As you might guess from the name, this is a cybersecurity company. For the six months to August 2025, profit after tax was R7.7 million. For the year to February 2025, profit after tax was R12.3 million. This implies decent underlying growth, although one has to be careful with smaller numbers like these. This is a related party transaction, as the financial director of ISA is also a director of DataProof. You see this kind of thing quite often in small cap land. (Note: an earlier version of Ghost Bites incorrectly noted ISA Holdings as the acquirer, not the seller – my apologies)
  • Brimstone (JSE: BRT | JSE: BRN) has proposed a specific repurchase of shares from participants in the “N” ordinary shares scheme. This is due to limited liquidity in the shares. They are looking to repurchase approximately 1.33% of the current N ordinary shares for a maximum investment of R15.8 million.
  • Trustco (JSE: TTO) has updated the market on the litigation related to Helios Oryx and the Namibia Revenue Agency (two separate matters). The update is that there is no update, with both matters still going through the courts – just in case you were keeping score for some reason.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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Spear REIT has acquired Watergate Centre, a shopping centre in Mitchells Plain, from MPW Cape Properties in a transaction valued at R442 million. The centre serves a high-density catchment area and is aligned with the company’s strategy of acquiring well-located, convenience-led retail assets within the Western Cape.

Stor-Age Property REIT has acquired a purpose-built double-storey property known as Execustore in Ballito for a purchase consideration of R59 million. The property offers 5,700m² GLA and has 6,600m² of land available for future expansion.

AfroCentric Investment Corporation has announced revised terms of its disposal first announced in December 2025 of Activo and its subsidiaries to FHC Farmaceutica and FHC (FHC Group). Specifically, the transactions value of R600 million has been significantly reduced. This comes on the back of the announcement in January 2026 by Bonitas Medical Aid of the outcome of a competitive RFP process, which awarded its administration and managed care contracts previously held by AfroCentric’s subsidiary Medscheme to Momentum and Private Health Administrators. This loss forced AfroCentric to revise the deal terms for selling Activo due to the significantly altered trading position and reduced revenue. The revised disposal consideration will consist of an upfront payment of R100 million on a cash free, debt free basis and a deferred payment to be calculated on the disposal assets receivables and net debt and working capital amounts as at the closing date. A maximum earnout payment of R90 million will be based on future performance – paid six monthly over six years.

DataProof Communications will repurchase 50% of its share capital from ISA subsidiary Information Security Architects for a total purchase consideration of R62 million. The rational for the disposal by ISA is to facilitate and support small business and black economic empowerment while realising fair value for ISA shareholders.

Novus and Firm Favourite Investments 10 have amended the disposal consideration for the sale of Novus Print announced on 19 March 2026. The parties have agreed to R85 million, amended from R91,7 million. In addition, the date for the fulfilment of conditions precedent has been extended to 30 April 2026.

The suspensive conditions for the disposal by enX to Trichem SA of its remaining interest in West African International have been fulfilled with the transaction becoming unconditional on 22 April 2026.

Norfund is to invest R160 million in the local water company Nafasi Water Technologies. The investment, alongside existing shareholder E Squared Investments, will support a sustainable platform for water infrastructure, focusing on mining-affected catchment rehabilitation, municipal water reuse, and advanced water-reclamation technologies. As part of their technology stack, Nafasi can recover useful chemicals from the sludge and effluent left over from the treatment processes. This unlocks a circular economy to span water treatment, through to valuable chemical production from waste products.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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In a heavily oversubscribed accelerated bookbuild, Spear REIT has raised R1 billion from qualifying investors. A total of 78,740,158 new ordinary shares were placed at an issue price of R12.70. The proceeds will be used for acquisition opportunities, brownfield projects to unlock embedded bulk, specifically within the industrial property portfolio and to fund capital expenditure for various asset management initiatives, such as the expansion of its PV solar portfolio.

Prosus has sold a 4.5% stake in Delivery Hero to Uber Technologies as required by the European Commission. In August 2025, the Commission approved the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com by Prosus on condition the company significantly reduced the shareholding. The 13,58 million shares were disposed of at a price of €20.00 per share representing a premium of c.22% to the one-month VWAP of Delivery Hero shares as of 16 April 2026 resulting in gross proceeds to Prosus of c.€271,6 million. Following the sale Prosus’ shareholding in Delivery Hero amounts to 21.8% which will be reduced further in due course.

Following on-market transactions in March valued at R4,88 billion, to reduce its stake in FirstRand, Remgro has now fully exited it investment in the banking institution. The remaining 39,603,406 FirstRand shares were disposed of on-market for an aggregate cash consideration of R3,59 billion. Remgro acquired the stake following the unbundling of its strategic indirect interest in FirstRand, historically held through Remgro’s interest in RMB Holdings. At the time Remgro retained a direct exposure of 3.92%.

AttBid, a vehicle representing Atterbury Property Fund (APF), I Faan and I Dirk, which made an offer to RMH shareholders in February 2026, acquired a further 6,136,585 shares at R0.47 per share in on-market transactions this week. Following this, AttBid and APF hold 32.77% and 10.65% respectively, resulting in an aggregate of c.43.42% of the RMH shares in issue. The offer closes on 29 May 2026.

Italtile Staff Share Scheme Trust has disposed of 556,731 Trust shares in an off-market transaction to Ceramics at R8.86 per share for a total transaction value of R4,93 million. The shares will remain part of the authorised and issued share capital of the company and will be held for future use by Ceramics.

In a cautionary notice to shareholders Numeral advised that it intends to restate its audited results for the year ended 28 February 2025 with a large element of the intended restatement arising from the acquisition accounting for the recovery of the 50% interest in Cryo-Save South Africa. The required amendments are not expected to result in a material adverse impact to the overall financial condition of the company.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Quilter announced it would commence a share buyback programme to repurchase shares with a value of up to £100 million in order to reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders. This week Quilter repurchased 1,073,872 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £1,99 million and 336,318 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R13,69 million.

Ninety One plc announced that it has extended the repurchase programme from 31 March 2026 to 3 June 2026. The shares will be purchased on the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 531,636 ordinary shares at an average price 219 pence for an aggregate £1,16 million.

GreenCoat Renewables has implemented a share buyback programme totalling €100 million over 12 months with a first tranche amounting to €25 million beginning on 5 March 2026 – representing 13% of the issued share capital. This week 2,532,667 shares were repurchased for and aggregate €1,87 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 13 – 16 April 2026, the group repurchased 1,242,908 shares for €79,69 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. This week the company repurchased a further 827,082 shares at an average price of £41.58 per share for an aggregate £34,39 million.

During the period 13 – 17 April 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,634,287 Prosus shares for an aggregate €112 million and Naspers, a further 1,008,427 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R929,82 million.

Three companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Newpark REIT, ArcelorMittal South Africa and Numeral.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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Inspired Evolution, the specialist pan-African investment firm focused on clean energy infrastructure, energy, and resource efficiency growth investments, announced a US$40 million investment in CrossBoundary Energy, a developer, owner, and operator of distributed renewable energy solutions for commercial and industrial (C&I) clients across sub-Saharan Africa. The investment was made through Inspired Evolution’s next-generation energy transition fund, Evolution III, and will support the development, construction, and expansion of CrossBoundary Energy’s portfolio of renewable energy assets, including solar PV, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and hybrid energy solutions.

Awash Bank S.C. officially listed on the Ethiopian Securities Exchange’s (ESX) main market on 23 April 2026. Ethiopia’s largest private commercial bank listed 37,896,928 shares out of its 54,06 million share registered with the Ethiopian Capital Market Authority. This marks the fourth listing on the East African exchange.

Egyptian edtech iSchool acquired software engineering firm Rubikal, for an undisclosed sum, to accelerate the development of AI-powered education systems. iSchool offers live gamified classes led by coding instructors. Rubikal, develops real-time, scalable, fault-tolerant web applications.

On Wednesday 22 April 2026, ZEN Petroleum Holdings PLC, listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange following an oversubscribed IPO that closed on 31 March. The company raised GHS640 million from the offer, representing 20% of its issued share capital, with bids valued at GHS 970,244,645, representing an oversubscription of 94%. 128 million shares were issued at GHS5.00 each.

The United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) and Bayer Foundation have announced the first investments under the Food Systems Innovation Finance Facility (FSIFF). The facility’s inaugural investments include a US$500,000 local currency loan to Omia Agribusiness Development Group in Uganda and a $500,000 local currency loan to SokoFresh in Kenya. Omia is a locally rooted agri-business providing agricultural inputs, extension services, and market access to smallholder farmers in Northern Uganda. The loan will support Omia’s expansion of farmer services and market linkages. Omia currently serves more than 90,000 smallholder farmers, and the investment is expected to reach over 75,000 additional farmers, including 30,000 women and 20,000 refugees. SokoFresh, a Kenyan enterprise addressing post-harvest losses and limited market access for smallholder farmers through solar-powered cold storage solutions and market linkages across fresh produce and cereal value chains, will use the loan to bring cold storage and reliable market access to more than 5,000 smallholder farmers annually, contributing to a projected 10% increase in farmer incomes while significantly reducing post-harvest losses across fresh produce value chains.

Morocco’s Competition Council has approved Cap Holding’s purchase of a 68% stake in Forafric Maroc SA. Talks for the deal started in early March and Cap now moves to close the transaction after the regulator cleared the acquisition. Financial terms have not been disclosed.

Sinai.ai announced the close of a US$1,45 million pre-seed funding round, led by KAUST Innovation Ventures and DisrupTech Ventures, with participation from Maza Ventures and YOUXEL Ventures, along with a selection of angel investors. The capital will fund proprietary tech, AI infrastructure, user acquisition, and licensing. The Egypt-based startup is building an AI-native book platform that transforms traditional content into interactive experiences.

DP World announced a follow-on investment in the Tulsi Chanrai Foundation (TCF), providing an additional US$500,000 to support the extension of the TCF Eye Hospital in Abuja, Nigeria, bringing its total cumulative investment in the project to $1,5 million. This funding will support TCF in effectively doubling the hospital’s capacity from 82 to 160 beds. Looking ahead, the project also plans to create a specialised training institute to bolster the local ophthalmic and paramedical workforce.

Jambaar Capital has announced an undisclosed investment in Nigerian climate-tech, TrashCoin. The digital Waste Management platform combines sustainability and eco-fintech to recover recyclable waste from communities. The platform provides an opportunity for individuals to deposit recyclable waste directly into their digital wallets and receive credit that can be withdrawn as cash or used to purchase essential services like electricity, health insurance, education fees, and mobile data.

Salt Capital and French Development finance institution, Proparco have acquired The Namibian Oncology Centre, a specialist cancer care provider in Namibia. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Hassan Allam has agreed to acquire MetiPro, the engineering, procurement, and construction arm of Metito group, for an undisclosed sum. The acquisition builds on a longstanding partnership between Hassan Allam and Metito, where both groups have jointly delivered national projects including Al Mahsamma, New Delta, and the ongoing West Alexandria and Abu Oweikal projects.

Odu’a Investment Company has entered into a strategic partnership with Elektron Energy Development Strategies to develop a 50-megawatt gas-fired Independent Power Plant (IPP) at the former Cocoa Industries Complex within the Ogba Industrial Estate in Ikeja, Lagos. The IPP will deliver dedicated, reliable electricity directly to industrial and commercial users within the Ogba cluster, reducing exposure to grid instability and eliminating the need for inefficient self-generation.

Cairo-based venture capital firm A15 has announced its ninth exit, with the acquisition of its portfolio company Viral Wave by PopArabia, a regional partner of NASDAQ-listed Reservoir. Under the terms of the acquisition, Viral Wave will serve as PopArabia’s dedicated distribution and label services division. Viral Wave’s Egypt-based team will be integrated into PopArabia’s regional operations, combining complementary capabilities across distribution, digital monetisation, and artist services across MENA. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Ghost Bites (AECI | BHP | Capitec | Quilter | Spear REIT | South32 | Standard Bank | Stor-Age)

AECI found a nasty whoopsie in its numbers (JSE: AFE)

It’s not a crisis, but nobody wants to see a “change statement”

A change statement is a rare thing on the market. It means that something was found between the release of reviewed and audited results. In this case, AECI discovered unsubstantiated supplier payments in the DRC, leading to an adjustment to tax payable of R32 million.

What does this mean in practice? HEPS will be R10.68 for the year ended December 2025, instead of R10.98 as previously indicated. That’s a 2.7% difference.

It’s not going to break the bank, but it’s annoying for shareholders and raises bigger questions around risk in the underlying operations, particularly in the rest of Africa.


BHP: aiming for the upper half of copper guidance and on track for iron ore (JSE: BHG)

They need to a strong finish to the year

Brandon Craig will take the role of CEO at mining giant BHP from 1 July 2026. He will inherit a company that is performing well, with an exciting portfolio across copper, iron ore and coal.

The production update for the quarter and nine months ended March 2026 is a reminder of the volatility in mining.

In copper, the metal that everyone is talking about, they are expecting to hit the upper half of production guidance. This is despite a 3% decrease in copper production for the nine months, mainly due to a 19% drop at Pampa Norte caused by various ongoing challenges around ore complexity and variation. Copper South Australia was up 3% and Antamina increased by 19%. Escondida, by far the largest mine, dipped 3%.

They highlight record production at Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO), although the production increase is only 2% for the nine months. Technically, even the smallest possible percentage increase on a previous record would be a new record! More importantly, they are on track for FY26 guidance in iron ore.

Steelmaking coal production is up 1% year-to-date, with guidance for the full year unchanged. They only expect to be in the lower half of the guided range, which means unit costs will be at the top end of the guided range.

Energy coal is up 11%, with BHP expecting to reach the upper half of the guided range.

The production performance will always be impacted by the specific period that you’re looking at. The year-to-date numbers are much smoother than the quarterly numbers, as you might expect. The Q3 numbers indicate just how much pressure there is at Pampa Norte in copper, with a 34% drop for the quarter. With Escondida down 9% for the quarter, copper had a poor quarter with a drop of 7%.

There’s all to play for in Q4, the final quarter of Mike Henry’s tenure as CEO.


Capitec looks unstoppable (JSE: CPI)

These numbers are insane

The best business story of South Africa’s democracy has done it again. Capitec reported excellent numbers for the year ended February 2026, boasting over 25 million personal banking clients and a ridiculous 54% market share among young adults (18 to 35).

I’m going to remind you that there are multiple banks in our market. It’s almost unbelievable that just one of them has over half of the market in the segment that will drive earnings in decades to come.

Another surprising element to Capitec’s business model is the success they are finding among high earners. Clients earning more than R50k per month are up 21%.

This is translating beautifully into the financial performance, with headline earnings up 23%. Return on Equity has reached 31%, up from 29%. That’s double what some of Capitec’s competitors are achieving.

The contribution at the top of the income statement is also well worth touching on. Net interest income after credit impairments increased 18%, while non-interest income increased by 19%. Although operating expenses increased by 12% to fund growth, that excellent revenue performance was more than enough to drive earnings higher.

The Business Banking operations are now contributing 5% of group headline earnings. This is an exciting growth driver going forwards. I’ve obviously been working with Capitec on The Finance Ghost plugged in with Capitec and I’ve been extremely impressed with the quality of the clients I’ve been introduced to.

Here are two other data points that may surprise you: Fintech contributed 26% of headline earnings, while Insurance contributed 27%. Personal Banking is still the largest at 41%. AvaFin is the smallest at 1%.

I could fill five editions of Ghost Bites with news about Capitec. I need to keep it brief on a busy day of company updates. I’ll therefore mention just one more innovation that shows how powerful this group is: they are introducing free calling between Capitec Connect customers. Just contemplate what this means to the Capitec client base and stickiness of those clients.

The share price is up 32% in the past year.

Based on this update, what is your current view on the share price?

417
Capitec - fully valued, or still an opportunity?

Capitec is doing so well. But is it a buy right now?


Record net inflows at Quilter (JSE: QLT)

Solid momentum at the end of 2025 has continued into 2026

Quilter has released a trading statement for the first quarter of 2026. With core net inflows up 35% year-on-year and representing 9% of opening assets under management and administration (on an annualised basis), they are telling a bullish story about their business.

The inflows were offset by market movements around quarter end, but the solid market recovery in recent weeks has given them an excellent base for the second quarter and beyond.

Importantly, they enjoyed net inflows across both the Affluent and High Net Worth segments. The UK market struggled with uncertainty last year and a general exodus of wealth. The final quarter of 2025 marked a recovery that seems to have continued into 2026.

And with strong inflows, it’s not surprising to see that productivity (measured as Quilter channel gross sales per Quilter Adviser) has increased substantially from £3.4 million to £3.9 million.

The share price is up 27% in the past year.


Spear REIT to raise R1 billion in fresh capital (JSE: SEA)

And if demand is strong, they might increase the raise

After market close on Wednesday, Spear REIT announced the launch of an equity raise of R1 billion through a bookbuild process. As usual, this means that the advisors will reach for their little black books and phone institutional investors with deep pockets.

Given the success of Spear’s strategy and how focused they are on the Western Cape, I doubt it will be terribly difficult to raise the money. Spear has noted that they might increase the raise if demand is strong. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen.

The group must have a strong acquisition pipeline that goes well beyond the recently announced deal in Mitchells Plain. Other than new deals, they are also looking to develop bulk within the industrial property portfolio.

The thing to look out for is the price at which the book will close. Ideally, you want to see the smallest possible gap between the existing traded price and the issue price for the new shares. The size of the gap indicates the incentive demanded by institutions to support the raise.


South32’s production is on track (JSE: S32)

At the nine-month mark, most commodities are at or above 75% of full-year targets

There are numerous unpredictable factors in the mining industry, not least of all the impact of weather and heavy rainfall in particular. Mining production reports tend to isolate these problems to help investors distinguish between weather issues and other underlying problems.

South32’s report for the three months to March reflects some encouraging signs, like a record quarterly dividend at Sierra Gorda and record year-to-date production at Brazil Alumina. But there was also an adverse weather impact in Australia Manganese, where FY26 production guidance has been revised lower by 6%.

Overall, with nine months of the financial year behind them, South32’s various commodities have achieved between 74% and 79% of full-year guidance. This means they are well on track.

The one exception is Mozal Aluminium, which sits at 103% of full-year guidance as the facility has now been transitioned to care and maintenance and won’t operate in the fourth quarter. It exceeded its production guidance in its closing stages. Talk about a farewell kiss!

Net cash increased by $121 million in the quarter, putting them in a positive net cash position of $96 million.

To give you context to how South32 allocates capital, they invested $239 million in capex (excluding equity accounted investments and Hermosa) over nine months. Hermosa is a substantial standalone project, requiring $496 million in growth capital over the period.

Share buybacks over the same period were $35 million. The dividend for the first half of the year was $175 million. As you can see, South32 is having to reinvest far more capital than it can distribute at the moment. They are playing the long game in key metals.


Double-digit growth at Standard Bank (JSE: SBK)

The first quarter of 2026 went well

Standard Bank announces financial information each quarter. This is because the high-level numbers are provided to ICBC in China, the investor that has a significant minority stake in Standard Bank. ICBC equity accounts for the stake and needs to do so each quarter. The happy outcome is that the market gets a very basic update on Standard Bank every three months.

For the three months ended March 2026, Standard Bank enjoyed a 12% increase in earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders. They guide that headline earnings growth is similar.

That’s a strong follow-up to the recent capital markets day. Guidance for the year ending December 2026 remains unchanged despite the recent energy shock.


Stor-Age makes an acquisition in KZN (JSE: SSS)

It’s a small deal, but a strategically sensible one

Stor-Age has a market cap of R9.2 billion. It’s not easy to move the dial with a single transaction once you’ve reached that size. But then again, that’s a dangerous goal to have, because it’s far better to build through a combination of organic growth and bolt-on deals than to roll the dice on a megadeal.

The latest transaction is a great example of a modest deal that simply adds to the company’s ecosystem. Stor-Age is acquiring Execustore in Ballito for R59 million, giving them a trading property that has strong access to the region’s dominant retail hub and important residential and commercial areas.

The current GLA is 5,700 sqm. There’s plenty of room to expand, with 6,600 sqm of land available.

The effective date of the acquisition was 1 April 2026. They clearly aren’t superstitious about April Fool’s Day!

The deal is too small to require any additional disclosure. It’s good to see the company at least including the purchase price in the voluntary announcement.

Results of yesterday’s poll:


Nibbles:

  • Here’s an interesting one: Apex Partners Holdings, founded by Chris Seabrooke (of Sabvest (JSE: SBP) fame) and Charles Pettit, has taken a 5.82% stake in Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK). The Stefanutti Stocks share price is up 43% year-to-date.
  • enX (JSE: ENX) has been in the process of selling the remaining 75% interest in West African International (WAI) to Trichem SA. The only remaining step is the receipt of a TRP compliance certificate. The deal is expected to be implemented with effect from 24 April 2026.
  • Remgro (JSE: REM) has disposed of its remaining FirstRand (JSE: FSR) shares for R3.6 billion. I would love to see this cash be used for share buybacks. But it probably won’t be.
  • There’s a shuffling of chairs in the mining industry. Jacques Breytenbach has resigned as an independent non-executive director of Afrimat (JSE: AFT). He’s popped up immediately as CFO-designate of Tharisa (JSE: THA), with an expected appointment date of 1 May 2026. He brings tons of mining experience to the role.
  • OUTsurance (JSE: OUT) announced that group CFO, Jan Hofmeyr, has resigned after more than 18 years with the group. He’s moving to an unnamed fintech venture (clearly a well-funded one). Francois van Rooyen has been named as his replacement at the age of just 39, having joined the group in 2018.
  • Numeral Limited (JSE: XII) has cautioned the market regarding an intended restatement of results for the year ended February 2025. This relates to the technical accounting considerations around the recovery of the 50% interest in Cryo-Save South Africa. The company notes that the restatements are more to do with the presentation of financials than the underlying economic substance of the group.

Ghost Bites (Afrimat | Oasis Crescent | Octodec)

Afrimat was loss-making in the second half of the year (JSE: AFT)

The market wasn’t happy at all

Afrimat’s share price has been under plenty of pressure. The release of a trading statement for the year ended February 2026 only added to the concerns, with the share price closing 5.4% lower on the day.

You have to dig a bit to find out why.

You see, for the full year, HEPS of between 91.8 cents and 99.1 cents is an increase of between 27% and 37.1% vs. the prior year. It’s a depressed base for sure, but that’s still a nice bounce. Isn’t it?

The problem lies in the split of earnings over the year. In the six months to August 2025, Afrimat’s HEPS was 101.9 cents. This means that they made a loss in the second half of the year. That’s awful.

Although Afrimat notes that losses in cement have moderated and that iron ore sales were decent, it’s clearly been an ugly time for them.

They took on a major risk with the Lafarge deal, but then got unlucky with some of the other things that happened in the market – like the near-collapse of the ferrochrome smelting industry in South Africa, a key customer for Afrimat. Although there are positive signs around energy costs for that industry, those benefits will only come through in the 2026 financial year (assuming they materialise).

Detailed results are due for release on 20 May. The share price is now back to where it was before the pandemic:

Of course, this leads to today’s poll…


Modest growth at Oasis Crescent (JSE: OAS)

Always keep in mind that this fund has no debt

Oasis Crescent is unique in the South African property fund landscape. To be Shari’ah compliant, the fund has absolutely no debt. In a country with structurally high interest rates, this isn’t necessarily as bad as it sounds from an economic perspective. The total return since inception (NAV plus dividends) is 11.1% per annum.

The year ended March 2025 wasn’t as strong as that long-term average. The distribution per unit (effectively the dividend) increased by 2.1%, while the net asset value (NAV) per unit was up 2.5%.

The distribution of 121 cents is a yield of 4.3% on the closing share price. There is very little liquidity in the stock though, so buying and selling units isn’t easy.


The Octodec board has weighted in on the Emira voluntary offer (JSE: OCT | JSE: EMI)

They have to tread quite carefully here

Emira Property Fund currently has a stake in Octodec of just over 20%. They would like to take it up to 34.9% through a voluntary offer mechanism to Octodec shareholders. If you know anything about Takeover Law in South Africa, you’ll know that 34.9% is just below the 35% stake that would trigger a mandatory offer to all shareholders.

In other words, it’s the largest minority stake that Emira can build without going the full hog and acquiring potentially all of the shares in the company.

The Octodec board wasn’t engaged in advance by Emira, so there’s an underlying smell of Eau de Hostile Takeover here. This fragrance has many spicy elements, assuming we get there. In the meantime, Octodec is engaging with Emira as a significant minority shareholder.

To add to the spiciness, the Octodec board has shared their view in a SENS announcement that the voluntary offer undervalues Octodec. The offer is at a significant discount to the most recently reported net asset value (NAV) – as per usual for property fund deals in South Africa. Octodec is unhappy about this and the directors do not plan to dispose of any of their shares in the voluntary offer process.

Importantly, the announcement is neither investment advice nor a formal recommendation to shareholders. This is why the board needs to tread carefully. But by making a statement of fact (“the offer is lower than the NAV”), they are making their point in an objective way.

Activity of this nature on the shareholder register can be a catalyst for at least two things: (1) a higher share price based on speculation around a larger deal coming through, and (2) the board of the target company moving faster to execute their strategy and gain the support of existing shareholders.

Both those things tends to be good news for Octodec shareholders who had shares before the Emira activity. The share price is up 81% in the past year and 40% over the past 6 months!


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The company secretary of AVI (JSE: AVI) was granted share awards and sold the entire lot worth R1.9 million.
  • In a surprise to absolutely no one, Aspen (JSE: APN) announced that the disposal of Aspen Asia Pacific (APAC) – excluding China – was approved by shareholders. It was unanimous to two decimal places, with the “against” column showing a delightful 0.00% of votes. Shareholders love the deal and with good reason!
  • After being with the broader Naspers (JSE: NPN) group for nearly four decades, Steve Pacak has passed away. He started his career at M-Net in 1988 and went on to be the financial director of Naspers. Koos Bekker described him in the SENS announcement as “one of the most honest and decent human beings I ever met” – we can all agree that this is a nice way to be remembered!

Ghost Bites (Coronation | Labat Africa | Sappi | Sibanye-Stillwater)

Coronation’s AUM has dipped in the past three months (JSE: CML)

The general risk-off vibes in the market wouldn’t have helped here

Coronation announced its assets under management (AUM) as at March 2026. As always, they don’t include any comparatives whatsoever, so readers are forced to go digging. I’ll truly never understand this approach, especially from an asset management firm that should know better than to irritate investors.

AUM was R746 billion at the end of March, down 5.1% from R786 billion at the end of December 2025. But if we compare to the R676 billion as at March 2025, AUM is up more than 10% in the past 12 months.

AUM will ebb and flow with the general markets. The more interesting trend will be client flows, something we will only know more about when the company releases detailed financials.


Labat Africa has flagged big moves in its key numbers (JSE: LAB)

So much has changed at the group

If you’ve been following the Labat Africa story, you’ll know that the group has transformed from a cannabis company to an IT company. Management has changed, assets have been bought and sold and they should probably have changed the group name by now as well.

Labat’s financial year-end is in May, while a couple of major subsidiaries are in February. They will consider aligning the reporting periods over time. I suggest they do, as the market doesn’t enjoy any complications like these.

The percentage moves aren’t that important when there have been major acquisitions, as the group has changed so much in a short space of time. Still, revenue is up by between 146.78% and 166.78%, while HEPS is expected to jump by between 96.48% and 116.48%.

More importantly, HEPS is expected to be around 11.15 cents per share, while the net asset value (NAV) per share is expected to be 34.36 cents. Why does this matter? Because the share price is just 5 cents per share.

Yes, that’s a P/E of below 0.5x. The market really has no idea what to do with this thing at the moment.


Sappi is still working on the graphic paper JV agreements (JSE: SAP)

These corporate transactions can take a long time to close

In large and complex deals, the negotiation process can take many months. The first step in the dance is a term sheet, which typically triggers a detailed announcement to the market with the high-level transaction terms. But once that’s out of the way, there is still much to be done before definitive agreements are ready to be signed.

This is the part of the process that Sappi is currently working through, in the proposed formation of a joint venture with UPM and Sappi’s graphic paper business in Europe.

It’s a Category 1 transaction, so nothing can be implemented before a circular goes to shareholders and a vote is held. To get to that point, they need to finalise the agreements. As you can see, this deal still has some way to go.

They are aiming to have definitive agreements signed before the middle of this year.

In the meantime, the share price remains in the doldrums. This is a nasty part of the cycle for Sappi. Those with (very) patient capital and a strong stomach may find this chart interesting:


Sibanye-Stillwater puts the spotlight on its international and recycling operations (JSE: SSW)

In other words: not the SA PGM and SA gold businesses

Sibanye-Stillwater is a massive group with interests in various underlying commodities and business models. This can make it tricky for investors to fully understand what’s going on, especially when recent share price movements (up 138% in the past year!) have been driven primarily by the PGM and gold businesses.

The company hosted a focused capital markets day that looked only at the international and recycling operations. This includes the US PGM business. I’ll just touch on a few things here. Those who want to check it out in detail will find the full pack here.

As you might expect, there are a few slides dealing with the expectations for favourable supply and demand dynamics in PGMs over the next decade. The slower adoption of electric vehicles has been bullish for the PGM players, particularly when combined with limited investment in new supply of platinum and related metals.

Sibanye has some exposure to the EV trend through its lithium investments. One of the points made in the deck is that in a “de-globalising world” – in other words a world in which East and West are becoming more isolated from each other – Europe is short on regional lithium projects. This is where the Keliber project in Finland is useful.

There are tons of slides dealing with the Keliber project and the US PGM operations in the deck. There’s also a section dealing with the smaller recycling operations, which have gold, PGMs, silver and copper as their outputs. The recycling business contributed 16% of group revenue in 2025 and 6% of group EBITDA.

If you want to get a much deeper understanding of the group, I recommend working through the slides. There are 94 of them!

What are your thoughts on this part of Sibanye’s group?


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The chairman of Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN) sold shares worth nearly R35 million. This represents a third of his holdings. That’s a very large disposal indeed.
  • ArcelorMittal (JSE: ACL) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to the negotiations with the IDC. They are still trying to find a sustainable solution for the future of the business. Unfortunately, this is another example of the “greater good” argument, where South African taxpayers will almost certainly end up subsidising this industry in one form or another so that we can protect jobs.
  • RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) announced that AttBid has picked up some more shares in the company. This takes AttBid to 10.65%. Combined with Atterbury Property Fund’s stake of 32.77%, the parties have 43.42% in total.
  • For those keeping score, Premier Group (JSE: PMR) confirmed the position of a couple of major shareholders after the scheme of arrangement that merged the company with RFG Holdings. Titan Premier Investments, Dr. Christo Wiese’s investment entity, holds a voting interest of 36.01% and an economic interest of 22.83% in the merged entity. Brait (JSE: BAT) has voting rights of 7.21% and an economic interest of 18.81%.

Ghost Bites (Novus | Prosus | Spear REIT)

Novus will be getting less money for their print letting business (JSE: NVS)

The due diligence has resulted in a downward price adjustment

Novus is in the process of selling the Novus Print Letting Enterprise. The original agreed purchase price was R91.7 million, subject to due diligence.

It doesn’t happen often, but sometimes a due diligence does end in a material change to the deal terms. This can be because of something that comes up in the due diligence itself, or because of a broader geopolitical issue that spooks the buyer and incentivises them to find something in the due diligence process that can be used as an excuse.

We don’t know exactly what happened here, but we do know that the due diligence process for this deal led to the purchase price being adjusted downwards to R85 million. That’s a reduction of over 7%.

A further change is that the fulfilment date for conditions precedent has been extended to 30 April 2026. This is a housekeeping thing, rather than an issue for Novus shareholders.

A dip in value of R6.7 million isn’t going to break the bank vs. the Novus market cap of R1.85 billion, but it’s still the kind of news that shareholders would prefer not to see.


Prosus sells part of its Delivery Hero stake (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)

Unusually, I own shares in both the seller and buyer in this deal

Prosus recently acquired Just Eat Takeaway.com. The approval for the deal by European regulators included a condition related to a reduction in Prosus’ stake in Delivery Hero. The condition is rather vague, with Prosus required to offload enough of the stake for it be considered a non-influential holding.

Before the latest transaction, they held 26.3% of Delivery Hero – a stake that would be considered significant minority ownership. But now they are selling a 4.5% stake to Uber, reducing the Prosus holding to 21.8%.

Interestingly, Prosus remains “committed to completing the sale of the remainder of its stake in Delivery Hero” – a statement that sounds like they are going to exit the entire thing. It wouldn’t make much sense to retain a stake that gives them little or no influence.

The selling price is a 22% premium to the 1-month VWAP of Delivery Hero shares. It unlocks €270 million in value for Prosus. Given the recent pressure on the Prosus share price (down 33% from the 52-week high), they could do worse than apply the proceeds to further share buybacks.

I’m a shareholder in both Prosus and Uber. It’s quite rare that my money sits on both sides of a transaction!

What are your feelings on Prosus at the moment?


Spear REIT acquires Watergate Centre in Mitchells Plain (JSE: SEA)

Value-focused retail is a strong growth area in South Africa

Spear REIT is investing in Mitchells Plain, which means they will be participating in the value retail growth trend in South Africa – an area that has received plenty of attention recently.

Value retail refers to more affordable formats like Shoprite and PEP. This strategy is enjoying the benefit of an ongoing migration of South African consumers up the LSM curve. There aren’t many tailwinds in South Africa, but this is one of them.

The Watergate Centre is being acquired for R442 million. This represents a purchase yield of 8.37%. The weighted average lease duration is only 1.86 years, a function of the centre having been built around 9 years ago and thus most of the initial leases coming to an end.

This means that Spear is rolling the dice on the renewals process. This management team knows what they are doing. They have almost certainly done the work and arrived at the conclusion that they can manage the renewal process in such a way as to get an uptick in the yield.

Still, with much uncertainty around the forecast income for the year ending February 2028 (evidenced by only 28.4% being “contracted income” vs. 71.6% being “near contracted rental income”), there is risk here for shareholders.

The mitigating factor is that this type of centre is generally highly sought after by tenants, given the importance of the underlying customer base and the need to be located on busy commuter routes.

No risk, no reward!


Nibbles:

  • If you’re a shareholder in Araxi (JSE: AXX), then be aware that they’ve had to issue revised pro forma financial effects for the Pay@ transaction. It looks like a mistake was made in the non-controlling interest calculation. It’s never ideal when things like this happen. The pro forma effect of the transaction is that diluted HEPS would decrease from 7.37 cents to 5.33 cents. They are playing the long game here and asking shareholders to do the same.
  • There’s practically zero liquidity in the stock of Newpark REIT (JSE: NRL). Shareholders who feel stuck in this company might soon have a way out, as the company has released a cautionary announcement related to a potential proposal by a shareholder for a transaction. They describe it as an opportunity for shareholders to monetise “some or all” of their shares. Let’s see if anything comes of this.
  • Trellidor (JSE: TRL) announced that Terry Dennison will be retired as the CEO and an executive director of the company with effect from 30 June 2026. Appointed as the CFO in 1999 (!) and then CEO in 2001, he’s been there for a very long time. The company has been listed since 2015, so he led that transition as well. The current CFO, Damian Judge, will be taking over as CEO. He’s been on the board since 2019 and took responsibility for sales and marketing over the past year, so that’s a proper succession plan. Jennifer Erasmus is the new CFO, having joined Trellidor around six months ago from Forvis Mazars. There’s a lot of work to be done at Trellidor and I wish them the best of luck!

The gender gap compounds – why SA women shouldn’t wait to invest

Lauren Jacobs, Senior Portfolio Manager at Satrix, highlights some of the challenges faced by women on their wealth creation journey – and what to do about them.

South African women face a financial reality that is both structural and compounding. According to a 2025 BEE Chamber analysis, women in this country earn an estimated 23% to 35% less than men for the same work; roughly R72.44 for every R100 earned by a male counterpart. Add the career breaks that often come with maternity leave or caregiving, along with the fact that women typically live longer, and the long-term maths starts tilting against us quickly.

The most powerful response is simple and available to everyone: start early. Investing is like planting a tree ‒ you water it, nurture it and give it time to grow. Time is the single greatest advantage any investor has, and for women, starting early matters even more because the headwinds are real.

The compounding cost of career breaks

Women are more likely than men to step away from the workforce, whether for maternity leave, caregiving responsibilities or other life milestones. While these breaks are often necessary, they can carry a cost that stretches far beyond the months or years spent out of the office.

When women take breaks, it reduces not only their income, but also their contributions to long-term savings. Even a few missed years can have a meaningful effect on compound growth. And because these breaks often happen during what could be peak earning years, the long-term impact can be disproportionate.

That is why building momentum early matters so much. A head start gives your money more time to keep compounding, even when life temporarily slows your ability to contribute.

The pay gap makes every rand work harder

Lower earnings do not just mean less money today. Over time, it means reduced contributions to retirement funds and investment accounts, and those smaller contributions can lead to very different outcomes over decades.

Career breaks and pay gaps also reinforce each other. Together, they can slow salary progression and shrink the ability to catch up later. Starting earlier does not remove that pressure entirely, but it does help reduce it by giving women more of the one input money cannot buy back: time.

Longevity changes the maths

Living longer is a gift, but it changes the arithmetic of retirement. Statistics South Africa’s 2025 mid-year population estimates put life expectancy at 69.6 years for women and 64.0 years for men – a gap of nearly six years.

Those extra years increase the risk of outliving your savings, especially if you start retirement with less set aside. And it is not only day-to-day living costs that continue for longer; healthcare costs and inflation are also working against you over that extended period.

What you can do without overcomplicating it

Take an approach that is grounded in consistency: building habits that can survive real life.

The first step is simply to stay consistent. Every monthly contribution matters when you start early and leave that money to grow. No matter the amount, even R100 a month can help build the habit. If you do need to pause contributions for a while, try not to withdraw from your savings.

Second, make use of your tax-free savings account. In the 2026 Budget Speech, government increased the annual investment limit from R36 000 to R46 000, while the lifetime limit remains R500 000. It is a powerful vehicle because you receive the full return on your capital without paying tax on that growth.

Third, where possible, try to preserve your retirement savings when leaving a corporate environment. Options like a preservation fund can keep your savings within the retirement framework and preserve the associated tax benefits.

And for women outside an employer pension scheme, whether self-employed or between jobs, a retirement annuity can help maintain momentum. Contributions are generally tax-deductible, subject to applicable limits and individual circumstances, and growth accumulates tax-free within the structure.

The real shift is in mindset

Platforms like SatrixNow make it possible to access ETFs, tax-free investments and retirement annuities in one place. Accessing these options is often easier than people assume.

But beyond products and percentages, the real shift is personal. It is about taking ownership of your financial future, building discipline, and investing in your financial literacy. The more comfortable you become with investing, the more confident you can feel about making decisions that will benefit you over the long term.

The gap is real, but it is not destiny. The earlier you start, the more power you have over your outcome.

This article was first published here.

Disclaimer

Satrix consists of the following authorised Financial Services Providers: Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd and Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd. The information does not constitute financial advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSPs, their shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. 

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