Aspen gets ready for thinner clients and fatter profits in Canada – but can they get the active pharmaceutical ingredient they need for their GLP-1 generic?
South32 signs off on a strong FY26 during a key transition period
Aspen gets ready for thinner clients and fatter profits in Canada (JSE: APN)
Regulatory approval has been received for Aspen-Semaglutide
The Aspen share price chart has been on quite the adventure in recent times, although zooming out on the chart reveals a disappointing performance:
It’s been a tough road for Aspen, as the contract manufacturing space in pharmaceuticals comes with a unique set of risks. You can see the substantial drop in value in late 2025 due to a major dispute and loss of volumes. This was followed by a strong rally and partial recovery in 2026.
Aspen was a top pick for many punters coming into this year, and they weren’t wrong! But is the best of this rally behind them?
With the disposal of Aspen Asia Pacific (APAC) behind them, further momentum in the share price will need to come from good old fashioned earnings growth. This is going to require an increase in volumes, as Aspen has considerable capacity in its manufacturing operations. This means that the market smiles every time an announcement comes out that implies potential growth in volumes.
The latest announcement from Aspen is positive, as Health Canada has given regulatory approval to Aspen-Semaglutide, a generic semaglutide injectable. And yes, in case you’re wondering – this is a generic version of the blockbuster GLP-1 drug that has made Novo Nordisk a fortune.
The challenge is that Aspen’s ability to supply the drug depends on the availability of the active pharmaceutical ingredient from Dr Reddy’s Laboratories in India. There’s currently a supply issue that is expected to last until at least late October (based on Bloomberg reports).
Therein lies the challenge for Aspen: their position in the value chain means that they are always reliant on regulators at one end, and other pharma players at the other. This is a major contributor to that sideways share price chart.
Ghost Bite: The share price gained over 3% on this news and is currently trading at R155, close to the 52-week high of R160.79.
South32 signs off on a strong FY26 (JSE: S32)
The group is in an important transition phase
South32 has delivered its final quarterly report for the financial year ended June 2026. They exceeded production guidance for the year and enjoyed a strong Q4 that saw sales volumes jump by 15%.
The group is going through an important transition. They recently announced the disposal of the aluminium value chain business to Alcoa. They are also investing heavily in Sierra Gorda, a key copper asset. The contraction of the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project has been going on for quite some time as well.
The overall strategy is to generate 85% of earnings from base and precious metals. They expect current projects to increase production by 55%. These are exciting times for the company, with CEO Matt Daley having taken the reins from Graham Kerr on 1 July 2026.
It helps when the underlying numbers look good, particularly with Sierra Gorda exceeding FY26 production guidance by 2%. There were various other good news stories as well, but copper is where the market will pay most of its attention. The copper price came in 42% higher for FY26.
In terms of cash returns to shareholders, FY26 saw a split of $292 million in dividends vs. just $35 million in share buybacks. To give you an idea of how enormous the capital expenditure budgets can be at these mining houses, the Taylor project soaked up $710 million in growth capex in FY26. Remember, that’s just one project!
Ghost Bite: The share price is up 35% in the past year. To remind you how cyclical mining can be, the increase over three years is just 1%. Dividends didn’t save the 3-year picture, as the total return over that period is only 9% – significantly less than a money market account at a bank would’ve returned over 3 years.
Results of previous poll:
Nibbles
Saul Saltzman, one of the sons of the founders of Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP), will be retiring from that board with effect from 17 July. This announcement comes just a few months after he transitioned to a non-executive role.
Datatec (JSE: DTC) announced the results of the scrip distribution alternative. Based on shareholder elections, the total cash dividend was only R146 million vs. an issuance of capitalisation shares worth R390 million. In other words, by offering the alternative, the company managed to retain R390 million in capital that would otherwise have been paid out as a dividend!
Harmony Gold (JSE: HAR) has reminded us of the dangers of the mining sector, with a tragic loss of life at the TauTona shaft in Carletonville. No further details are given on the accident at the shaft.
Numeral (JSE: XII) announced that results for the quarter ended May 2026 have been delayed due to the company’s focus on completed the restated 2025 numbers. The Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM) has given them an extension until 5 August.
Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst.
Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session. I facilitate the Q&A alongside Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.
In the 73rd edition of Unlock the Stock, 4Sight Holdings joined us for the first time to discuss the recent financial performance and prospects of the group.
Satrix Selects Botswana Stock Exchange For Secondary ETF Listings
Satrix, the leading provider of index-tracking investment products in South Africa, has announced the further expansion of its offering into another African country outside of South Africa. The company selected the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) as the platform for the secondary listing of three of its JSE-listed exchange traded funds (ETFs), with the listings having gone live on 9 July.
A strong track record of firsts, rapid growth and innovation has seen Satrix establish itself as a leader in the indexation market. It currently offers 38 JSE-listed ETFs, encompassing South African and global equities across various asset classes, with a total value exceeding R90 billion.*
Duma Mxenge, Head of Business and Market Development at Satrix, says, “By introducing these ETFs to the BSE, we aim to contribute to the development of capital markets in Botswana. This move will not only offer local investors a wider range of investment options but also enhance the exchange’s exposure to the international market. The dual listing of these ETFs will further facilitate the globalisation of the BSE and strengthen its position within global financial markets.”
Satrix will introduce three global ETFs to the BSE:
Kopano Bolokwe, Head of Product Development at the BSE remarks: ‘‘Botswana has consistently proven to be an attractive and a competitive investment destination, and I am proud that Satrix chose Botswana and the BSE for their Africa expansion. The listing of these three global ETFs is an crucial accomplishment under our 10x by 2030 Strategy and marks the beginning of a mutually beneficial outcomes-driven development journey. The timing is right given the positive development in the pensions and asset management landscape where ETFs are now receiving increased recognition and inflows as a bespoke asset class, supported by the fee incentives on the BSE and the innovation around bespoke ETF benchmarks. These ETFs give local investors exposure to international markets, including the USA, using an instrument that trades like shares on the BSE, and with ease of entry and exit. Thus, we encourage all types of investor groupings, such as Individuals, Investment Consortiums, Wealth Managers, Corporates, Metshelo, SACCOs’s and Pension Funds to explore these investment opportunities for portfolio diversification and long-term wealth creation.’’
“The Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited (BIHL) Group shares our collective congratulations to the Board, management and staff of Satrix on this momentous occasion. The need for such a reputable and robust partner for index-tracking products, from exchange traded funds to unit trusts and beyond – goes without saying. We are looking forward to seeing the value this will add to the local market, beyond the positive aspect of another bourse listing on Botswana’s Exchange. This is yet another testament to the growth of Botswana’s markets that we all celebrate,” said the BIHL Group Chief Executive Officer, Catherine Lesetedi.
Helena Conradie, Executive Director of Satrix says, “Our additional expansion into the African market represents another important milestone for us. As a company, democratising investments and giving as many people as possible the opportunity to ‘own the market’ is our driving force. We want to ensure economic participation for everyone. We are pleased to bring this offering to Botswana and know our innovative investment solutions and accessible fees will create new avenues for local investors to diversify their portfolios.”
*Satrix, 9 July 2026
Disclaimer
Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd (Satrix) is an authorised Financial Service Provider (FSP no 15658) and a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts and ETFs, the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of an ETF, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange. ETFs are index tracking funds, registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange or via Investment Plans and online trading platforms. ETFs may incur additional costs due to being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A feeder fund is a portfolio that invests in a single portfolio of a collective investment scheme, which levies its own charges and which could result in a higher fee structure for the feeder fund. International investments or investments in foreign securities could be accompanied by additional risks such as potential constraints on liquidity and repatriation of funds, macroeconomic risk, political risk, foreign exchange risk, tax risk, settlement risk as well as potential limitations on the availability of market information. The manager has the right to close the portfolio to new investors in order to manager it more efficiently in accordance with its mandate.
Argent Industrial lands another offshore acquisition
Balwin’s take-private circular is out in the wild
Capitalworks has almost fully exited its stake in Premier
Mantengu has agreed terms for the Blue Ridge Platinum disposal
Ninety One has shown strong growth in assets under management
Valterra Platinum’s numbers look incredible at first blush, but be careful
Argent Industrial lands another offshore acquisition (JSE: ART)
They are acquiring an industrial business in the UK for R238 million
Argent Industrial has been strongly focused on building its offshore operations. In the year ended March 2026, the South African operations only contributed 27% of group profit before tax, with offshore doing the rest!
Although going offshore is no guarantee of success (often it’s quite the opposite), Argent has made it work. In FY26, offshore operations grew profit by 13.3%, well ahead of South Africa at 8.3%.
With the market enthusiastically supporting this strategy (the share price is up 39% over 12 months), Argent has now pulled the trigger on another offshore deal.
The company has announced the acquisition of the Ramsden Group, a UK-based manufacturer of steel drums and wooden pallets. They also recondition intermediate bulk containers. This certainly brings even more diversification to Argent’s group!
The deal is valued at around £10.8 million, which works out to R238 million. Of this price, almost R55 million relates to properties occupied by the group, The remaining R183 million is based on the profits after tax and a P/E multiple of 5.5x.
This is a Category 2 transaction, so shareholders won’t be asked to vote.
Ghost Bite: Based on the Argent share price over the past 12 months and how well this deal fits into the strategy, I doubt shareholders would vote it down:
Balwin’s take-private circular is out in the wild (JSE: BWN)
If all goes to plan, shareholders will get R4.35 per share
After a 30-year journey since being founded in 1996, Balwin has come full circle and will be leaving the public market (if this deal goes ahead).
The journey includes 11 years as a listed company. Balwin was one of the many property stocks that listed in the 2014 – 2016 glory years in the local property sector. This gives us a perfect example of why IPOs in a hot market are best avoided:
After a long and difficult road for investors, there’s the chance to be paid out R4.35 in cash. It sounds like a decent deal when you consider that the 52-week low is R2.31! It works out to a 23% premium to the 30-day VWAP, calculated before the firm intention announcement came out in May.
The circular for the deal is now available. This sets out all the details of the offer by Bidco, an entity backed by the PIC / GEPF and the core management team at Balwin. CEO Stephen Brookes is the biggest fish, with 33.07% stake in Balwin. The “reinvesting shareholders” (i.e. management) hold a combined 50.2% stake in Balwin.
Irrevocable undertakings have already been obtained from holders of 63.5% of the voting shares, so it looks likely that the scheme will go ahead. The likelihood is increased by the independent expert (Valeo Capital) opining that the offer is both fair and reasonable to shareholders. For more context, Valeo has estimated a fair value range of R3.62 to R4.29 per share. The offer price of R4.35 sits above that range.
The meeting is scheduled for 17 August.
Ghost Bite: It is very likely that this will bring Balwin’s public journey to an end. Unfortunately for investors, being focused on stamping out complexes in Joburg turned out to be a disappointing strategy in a city that fell apart around Balwin over the past decade.
Capitalworks has almost fully exited its stake in Premier (JSE: PMR)
These shares relate to the acquisition by Premier of RFG
You may recall that in 2025, we saw the acquisition by Premier of all of the shares in RFG.
This deal resulted in the previous RFG shareholders having 22.5% in the merged group. Notably, Capitalworks had a 44.5% stake in RFG before that transaction, so they would’ve ended up with roughly 10% in the enlarged entity.
After a successful accelerated bookbuild process run by RMB Morgan Stanley, Capitalworks has reduced that stake all the way down to just 0.94% in Premier – an easy enough stake to sell quietly, if they wish.
This is a good reminder that it’s very difficult to move a c.9% stake through the order book without the market noticing. When it’s clear that there’s a big seller in the system, it puts a lot of pressure on the share price. In such a case, an accelerated bookbuild can provide a far more elegant exit.
The price at which the sales happened is not disclosed, but we do know that Titan Premier Investments (part of the Christo Wiese stable) bought another 2 million shares from Capitalworks. This works out to around 1.2% in the company. The remaining shares would’ve been picked up by various institutional investors, with the announcement noting that the bookbuild was multiple times oversubscribed.
It’s worth highlighting that this doesn’t affect the company at all. No new shares have been issued. All we have is a situation where a shareholder needed to move a chunk of shares so large that it made sense to use a formal process.
Ghost Bite: Capitalworks initially invested in RFG in 2012. A total investment period of 14 years is twice as long as you would expect to see from a private equity fund. COVID did throw a large spanner in the works along the way.
Mantengu has agreed terms for the Blue Ridge Platinum disposal (JSE: MTU)
This is hot on the heels of the recently announced iron beneficiation plant disposal
Mantengu has been trading under cautionary since early June. It hasn’t taken them long to get to the point where they can announce detailed terms for the disposal of Blue Ridge Platinum to Afresources Mining.
The 70% shareholding and claims in Blue Ridge will be sold for R35 million. This is in line with the pricing guidance provided in June.
This gets rid of a monthly cost burden, as Blue Ridge is being kept alive at a cost of R2 million per month without generating any income. It also reduces liabilities by a massive R185 million.
Mantengu points out that this is why they didn’t raise a R570 million liability in the latest results, despite their auditors wanting them to do so. Nothing proves a point quite like the finalisation of a deal and the flow of cash!
The trickiest condition precedent is the section 11 approval under the Mineral Resources Development Act. This will need to be obtained within 180 days, so that shows you just how long these can take.
Interestingly, Afresources will lend Mantengu R35 million at prime plus 1% in the meantime, with the balance set off against the eventual purchase price. In other words, the cash bleed will stop for Mantengu while the deal is being finalised. The key is that all conditions are met though, otherwise the whole thing falls over.
This is a Category 2 transaction, so Mantengu shareholders won’t be asked to vote.
Ghost Bite: Mantengu has been making a lot of progress lately with asset disposals. The really big deal is the Averi Finance opportunity. The group is still trading under cautionary in that regard.
Ninety One has shown strong growth in assets under management (JSE: N91 | JSE: NY1)
And unlike Coronation (JSE: CML), Ninety One actually bothers to give us comparative numbers
As the name would suggest, assets under management (AUM) is the lifeblood of any asset management firm. AUM is the basis upon which fees are earned. If AUM is growing at a decent rate, earnings usually follow suit.
There are three ways to grow AUM.
The first is through a general uplift in market prices, something that is largely beyond the control of these firms. All they can do is launch funds that have a good chance of success, with the hope being that markets will do the rest.
The second is through attracting additional inflows, a function of a strong brand and a successful distribution network.
The third way, which certainly applies to Ninety One, is through M&A activity. Over the past year or so, we saw Sanlam (JSE: SLM) sell their active asset management businesses into Ninety One in exchange for shares in the group.
This transaction was a major contributor to the substantial growth in Ninety One’s AUM over the past 12 months. AUM increased from £139.7 billion to £184 billion – and do take note of the currency there! Ninety One is a huge operation.
The quarter-on-quarter growth is a cleaner view of things, as this excludes the impact of the acquisition. On that basis, AUM increased by 7.1% between March 2026 and June 2026. That’s still an incredibly strong outcome.
Ghost Bite: Given Coronation’s refusal to publish comparative AUM in their quarterly updates, I feel compelled to thank Ninety One for what feels like basic disclosure!
Valterra Platinum’s numbers look incredible at first blush, but be careful (JSE: VAL)
The priorperiod flooding at Amandelbult is making all the difference
Valterra Platinum released a trading statement for the six months to June 2026. Brace yourself for a rather bonkers percentage increase, with HEPS expected to jump by more than 1,388%!
In absolute terms, which are easier to understand here, this means an increase from R1.2bn to between R18.5bn and R22.2bn.
There were two main drivers of this result.
The first was an 85% increase in the PGM dollar basket price in dollars, equating to a 66% increase in rand.
Together with this vastly improved environment in PGMs, the second driver is that Valterra managed an 18% increase in sales volumes. But the important context is the flooding at Amandelbult in 2025, creating a much softer base than would otherwise be the case.
Amandelbult’s production was up 116% in the latest quarter. If you look at the rest of the group, you’ll find that the mines suffered reduced volumes on a year-on-year basis.
Looking ahead, guidance for full year 2026 is unchanged. The company does note that cash operating costs per ounce are expected to be at the upper end of the guided range. Given the inflationary pressure on mining costs, PGM prices will hopefully give some support to this story in the latter half of the year.
Ghost Bite: If you adjust for Amandelbult, this isn’t a particularly great outcome. The current share price of R1,080 reflects a 44% decline from the 52-week high of R1,930! The PGM sector is a wild place.
Results of previous poll:
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
The CEO of Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) bought shares worth over R6.7 million in an off-market trade.
In the capital raise by Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) several directors acquired shares worth roughly R4 million in aggregate.
ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) had a busy day on SENS on Friday. One of the releases was the prospectus for the issuance of stock to the holders of $109 million in notes in Quantum Leap Energy. This considerable source of dilution for ASP Isotopes shareholders had already been announced, so this was just the formal release of documentation. For those who really want to dig into the detail, the company also released a retrospective update to the 2025 financials based on the presentation of Skyline as a discontinued operation. But perhaps most importantly, the company is hosting a webinar for its helium assets, as they work towards the merger with Noble Africa. The details are here.
There is very little liquidity in the shares of Putprop (JSE: PPR), so their latest trading statement only gets a passing mention down here. For the year ended June 2026, they expect a headline loss per share of between -5.26 cents and -17.44 cents vs. positive HEPS of 60.86 cents in the comparable period. This nasty negative swing is driven by a decrease in the valuation of the property portfolio. Detailed results are expected on 16 September.
Wesizwe Platium (JSE: WEZ) announced that agreements have been reached with all recognised trade unions at Bakubung Platinum Mine. This include AMCU, NUM and the non-bargaining unit. This has enabled progress to be made with the phased restart of the mine.
After another small purchase of shares, Novus (JSE: NVS) now has a direct stake in Mustek (JSE: MST) of 50.68%. Together with concert parties, the stake is up to 70.97%.
Each July, a little valley on the southern tip of Africa dresses up in tricolour to commemorate a French prison riot that it has no direct connection to. This is the story of how a day that started with gunpowder and ended with a beheading became an excuse to drink excellent wine in Franschhoek.
Last weekend, I woke up in France. Or at least I thought I did. I walked down the central street of a quaint little village, where every tree was wrapped in red, white and blue and bunting that fluttered merrily between lampposts. Everyone was wearing berets, and on one corner a man with a magnificent moustache was playing French café music on an accordion.
I could have been in Europe. But no – I was in Franschhoek.
This was my first experience of the annual Bastille Festival that takes over this little corner of the Winelands in July every year. For two days, the whole town goes capital-letters-FRENCH – from the food to the music to the decor – and people flock to it in numbers. The big drawcard is the winetasting event, of course, but even teetotalers like me will find plenty of interesting things to keep themselves entertained.
Somewhere between market-hopping and cheese-sampling, I took a moment to look around and really consider where I was and what I was seeing. It struck me as a little odd that this town, on the southernmost tip of Africa, should be so invested in another country’s national holiday. Which made me ask the question: how did we get here?
But wait, what are we even celebrating?
You know me – I’m never satisfied to simply wonder about something. Hence, here’s the historical deep-dive you probably knew was coming.
On 14 July 1789, a crowd of roughly 1,000 Parisians marched on the Bastille, a medieval fortress/prison on the eastern edge of the city, and quite literally took it apart. Say what you will about the French, but when they put their minds to something (usually something that annoys them), they get it done. This seminal moment became the founding image of the French Revolution: the people rising up, the dungeon falling, tyranny overthrown by the massed will of the oppressed. Hourra!
The crowd that stormed the Bastille was not actually there for the prisoners. They were there for the gunpowder. Earlier that morning the same crowd had helped itself to some 30,000 muskets from a military hospital across town, which is a great many muskets that are no use whatsoever without powder to fire them. Most of the city’s gunpowder happened to be stored inside the Bastille.
When they got inside, they liberated said gunpowder as well as all seven prisoners. Four were forgers, one had been locked up for reasons of mental illness, one had tried (and failed) to assassinate the king and one was an aristocrat whose own family had asked for him to be detained, presumably because he was becoming difficult at dinner.
Guarding these seven prisoners were 82 invalides, who were essentially army veterans too old or too injured for field service. They were regarded by the locals as largely harmless. They were reinforced at the last minute by a few dozen Swiss soldiers. This ragtag army couldn’t stop the onslaught of a thousand angry Frenchmen. The governor of the fortress, a man named De Launay, opted to surrender rather than blow the powder store and take the neighbourhood with it. For this restraint the crowd killed him and carried his head through the streets on a pike.
The storming of the Bastille left such a strong impression on the collective French consciousness that they have been commemorating it ever since. They stopped just short of mentioning it in their national anthem (which was written three years later), but they did depict it on their currency before Euros took over. And of course it became a national holiday, commemorated with the largest annual military parade in Europe and the oldest ongoing one in the world. Sprinkled over all of that are fireworks, street parties, and the Eiffel Tower lit up in tricolour. It’s a strangely sanitised way to celebrate a day that started with gunpowder and ended with a beheading.
Two and a half centuries later, that same grisly day is the reason why Franschhoek sells out its guest houses every July.
It’s not just Franschhoek, either
I was surprised to learn just how many countries celebrate Bastille Day, especially because a few of them appear at first glance to have nothing to do with France at all.
Start close to the source and it still makes a bit of sense. French Polynesia, which is still overseen by France, took the holiday and made it thoroughly its own. They stretch singing, dancing and drumming competitions across the whole month of July. This is celebration by inheritance: France arrived, France stayed, and the holiday stayed with it.
Move a little further out and it gets stranger, but the thread still holds. In Puducherry – the Indian coastal territory the French once called Pondicherry, and held for the better part of two centuries until 1963 – Bastille Day is a fixture. Retired soldiers march through the streets. The national anthems of both India and France are sung. The French Consul General turns up to lay a wreath. It is a mock-military parade for the fall of a prison in a city on the other side of the planet, staged by people whose grandparents were French subjects and whose passports have not been French for two generations. Nobody involved is confused about this. The French left, but the Indians kept the day.
In Dublin, the biggest 14 July party in the country happens inside a deconsecrated church, decked out in blue, white and red, with a brass band shipped in from Nantes, cancan dancers and French DJs. This one is run by the city’s actual French expatriate community, with the embassy’s backing.
Akaroa, a small town on New Zealand’s South Island, throws a biennial French festival, names its streets rue this and rue that, and runs boulangeries and a boucherie. Their whole claim to Frenchness is a French settlement that arrived in 1840 to colonise the South Island but found that the British had beaten them to it by a matter of days. The colony that was never even officially French still holds the world’s southernmost Bastille Day party.
And then there’s Franschhoek. The valley was settled in the late 1600s by French Huguenots (Protestants fleeing persecution after Louis XIV outlawed their religion) who brought with them the winemaking that still runs the place. So there is a real French thread here, 300 years old and traceable in the surnames on the wine labels. It is just not, strictly speaking, a thread that connects to the Bastille.
That’s because the Huguenots left France a full century before the Revolution, chased out by exactly the kind of royal authority the Revolution later demolished. Celebrating the storming of the Bastille as a tribute to the Huguenots is a little like the descendants of people who were evicted by an evil landlord throwing an annual party to commemorate the day, decades later, that someone finally set fire to his house.
But maybe I’m overthinking it and we’re all just looking for an excuse to drink wine and eat cheese? Could be.
What the party is actually for
Franschhoek is the (so-called, oft-debated) gourmet capital of the Winelands. Like every wine region on earth, it has a problem called winter. The vineyards are bare, the long summer lunches have packed up, and a town whose entire economy runs on people wanting to drink wine in the sunshine suddenly has to persuade them to come out in the cold.
The Bastille Festival, which was first held in Franschhoek in 1993, is the answer to that problem: a reason to fill the guest houses and restaurants in the one season they’d otherwise sit empty. Dress the town in tricolour bunting, put a market and a French Bulldog contest on the main road, and suddenly the low season starts paying rent.
I would be remiss not to at least mention the tinge of irony under all of this. The festival commemorates the day ordinary people tore down a monument to inherited privilege and aristocratic wealth. It stages this commemoration in a valley of luxury estates, where the questions about who does the work and who owns the land are ever present, and those tensions have occasionally boiled over. On our way into town, we drove past a small group of farm workers holding up cardboard signs, begging not to be evicted by the new owners of the farm they work on.
There’s something about this juxtaposition that reminds me of a lyric from a Vampire Weekend song that I like. It goes like this:
Untrue, unkind and unnatural
How the cruel, with time, becomes classical
The shift from blood to bunting is nothing new. It is simply what happens to every revolution eventually: it becomes a theme. The barricade becomes a photo opportunity. The powder store becomes a wine marquee.
Eat, drink and be merry
In 1789 a crowd went looking for gunpowder and came away with a revolution. By 1880 the revolution had a parade. By the 1990s it had crossed an ocean and set up in a valley founded by people who’d fled France a hundred years too early to care. And now, every July, you can stand in a wintry street in Franschhoek in a red-white-and-blue outfit, holding a glass of something excellent, celebrating the overthrow of a monarchy that the ancestors of half the wine labels around ran away from.
You could call it confused. I say give any event enough time, enough distance, and enough good wine, and the details stop mattering entirely. All that survives is an excuse to gather. Mercifully (this time), sans muskets.
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.
Significant dilution for shareholders in ASP Isotopes
BHP signs off on a successful year, boosted by copper prices
Coronation has given an update on its assets under management
iOCO has announced a small acquisition in the ERP space
Karooooo’s recent bad press in Cartrack hasn’t taken the shine off the numbers
Prosus will be paid over R40 billion for the remaining stake in Delivery Hero
Supermarket Income REIT raised the £100 million they wanted
Will the IDC swoop in and save ArcelorMittal? (JSE: ACL)
And what could the commercial terms be?
ArcelorMittal has released a further cautionary announcement regarding the negotiations with the IDC. This has been going on for a long time, with the share price stuck in a deep, dark hole of despair:
There are a zillion reasons for this, most of which can be traced one way or another to the deindustrialisation of South Africa. It really is a very serious problem that is causing premature grey hairs for executives in any value chain that touches the heavy industrial sector in our country.
Given their name is literally the Industrial Development Corporation, this does seem like something that the IDC would want to address. I shudder to think where the ArcelorMittal share price would be if not for the ongoing negotiations with the IDC…
Ghost Bite: We should find out soon whether it’s South African taxpayers or market speculators (who bought stock recently) who will feel the pain. Someone is going to lose out here.
Significant dilution for shareholders in ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO)
A complex capital structure can dish up these kinds of surprises
ASP Isotopes is working towards a distinct capital structure for subsidiary Quantum Leap Energy (QLE). The intention is for QLE to separately in the US.
As part of this, a chunk of debt in QLE will be settled through the issuance of new listed shares by ASP Isotopes. To be precise, holders of $109.2 million in QLE notes will exchange those instruments for a whopping 23.2 million shares in ASP Isotopes. This represents 17.8% of ASP’s stock!
This is substantial dilution that the market clearly wasn’t expecting to see, as the share price closed 11% lower on this news. Investors don’t like being diluted. Few market participants are doing the level of research required to spot this potential source of dilution in the capital structure.
Accounting rules try and make allowance for hybrid instruments, but nothing brings the message home quite like the news of your position being diluted by 17.8%. It’s worth pointing out that removing debt from further down in the structure also makes the entire group more valuable in the equity layer, so “dilution” isn’t always an issue. It depends on the terms at which the instruments have been converted.
Even after this, there would still be another $110.7 million in notes in QLE running around. Could there be further dilution down the line? And at what price?
Ghost Bite: A capital structure with many layers, particularly of a mezzanine finance nature (convertible instruments), needs thorough research before being fully understood. This is why the market tends to reward simplicity.
BHP signs off on a successful year, boosted by copper prices (JSE: BHG)
But be careful of the copper guidance for FY27
BHP has released an operational review for the year ended June 2026. As the largest mining group in the world, any update from BHP gets plenty of attention in the market. This is also the first major update delivered by Brandon Craig after he stepped into the CEO role with effect from 1 July 2026.
The share price has been doing very well in the past year, with a return of 46% (or 52% on a total return basis including dividends). This is despite recent challenges, like the delays and cost overruns at the Jansen Stage 2 potash project.
The underpin of this performance is copper, with BHP flagging that prices are up 35% vs. last year. Although BHP flatters its numbers by describing production as being “~2 Mt for the second consecutive year”, the somewhat less glowing reality is that production actually dipped by 3%. The production dips are set to keep dipping, with FY27 production forecast to be between 1.65 Mt and 1.8 Mt (due to an expected grade decline at Escondida).
At least unit costs came in at the bottom of the guided range for copper, so that should lead to solid returns to shareholders alongside the increase in copper prices. Hopefully the various copper projects underway will lead to improved production down the line.
The PR team kept the good times rolling in iron ore as well, describing 1% growth in production as “record” numbers. That’s technically true, but the word record appears over and over again in the announcement. It’s a bit over the top when the underlying growth is just 1%! More records may fall (by the tiniest of margins) in FY27, with iron ore production guidance of 260 to 272 Mt, suggesting a midpoint that is just above FY26 at 265 Mt.
Iron ore prices were up 3% for the year, with BHP reaffirming guidance for their unit costs in iron ore as well.
Steelmaking coal and energy coal don’t get much attention, but production was up 3% and 9% respectively.
Ghost Bite: Overall, it was a decent year for BHP. The market is rewarding them for their copper exposure. I just encourage you to look at the actual numbers, rather than the narrative that is designed to tell the best possible story.
Coronation has given an update on its assets under management (JSE: CML)
This means we have to go digging for comparatives
For reasons I will never understand, Coronation is allergic to providing historical numbers in their updates on assets under management (AUM). They always just give the latest number, without any indication of year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter growth. For a company focused on investing, you would think that they would put more than the bare minimum effort into their SENS announcements.
For what it’s worth, at least they are consistent with this approach regardless of whether they have good news or bad news.
As at 30 June 2026, AUM was R778 billion. That’s 4.3% higher than the AUM at 31 March 2026, which I think is good going against a backdrop of global disruption.
They are 5.5% up on the AUM a year ago (June 2025). This shows you that you cannot just extrapolate the movement over one quarter. In this case, the year-on-year number is far less impressive than the quarter-on-quarter view.
The share price is up just 1% over the past 12 months. Thanks to a fat dividend yield, the total return is 12.2%.
iOCO has announced a small acquisition in the ERP space (JSE: IOC)
Will they build the group through bolt-on deals like these?
iOCO, led by Rhys Summerton, is getting a lot of attention at the moment. Investors are very curious about the different permutations for this group, particularly as Summerton is a dyed-in-the-wool dealmaker who is very unlikely to just sit on his hands.
Will the deals be smaller in nature, or will we see a blockbuster transaction at some point? Could it be both? Perhaps most of all, is there a chance that Aimia (JSE: AII) could be involved? If you haven’t heard of Aimia before, this is a cash-flush entity that Summerton recently listed on the JSE.
For now, all we know is that iOCO is open to acquisitions in the South African market. They’ve announced a deal to acquire 100% of Astraia Technologies. Try say that name out loud without sounding like you have an Aussie accent!
Astraia is a South African enterprise resource planning (ERP) solutions provider. They specialise in cloud ERP implementations, financial software integration and business process optimisation. That sounds like it will be right at home in the iOCO stable. The deal is expected to become effective within six weeks.
We don’t know what the value of this deal is. We just know that there’s a performance-linked element that may become payable based on performance over the next 18 months. The value is undisclosed because this is such a small deal that it falls below the JSE categorisation thresholds.
Ghost Bite: I have a small position in iOCO, as I think the company represents decent value with optionality to the upside. Or, in simple terms, I think that Summerton will do something interesting. I don’t know what it is yet, but a management team that gives forward free cash flow guidance is a team that I’m willing to put some money behind. The guidance for FY26 is free cash flow of at least 60 cents per share. The current share price is R4.00. Yes, that’s a 15% forward free cash flow yield – in theory, at least.
Karooooo’s recent bad press in Cartrack hasn’t taken the shine off the numbers (JSE: KRO)
As is so often the case, the cash flow trend looks very different to earnings growth
Karooooo’s share price closed almost 9% higher after releasing first quarter 2027 results. This is because the numbers look great, despite key subsidiary Cartrack having to deal with a lot of bad press recently (about working conditions in South Africa). We will have to wait and see how that develops.
Total Cartrack subscribers grew by 18% year-on-year, surpassing the 2.8 million mark. Critically, net subscriber additions increased by 70% to 142,472. If you think about it, as the base gets bigger, it becomes harder to achieve strong growth rates. Achieving a consistent percentage growth rate requires more individual subscribers each time.
The important thing to remember is that Karooooo is still growing subscribers very nicely. Subscription revenue has followed suit, up 19% to R1.35 billion.
The Delivery-as-a-Service (DaaS) business achieved growth of 46%, but it remains small at just R177 million in revenue.
Operating profit margin always flaps around at Karooooo based on the timing of investment in capacity (like sales staff) vs. growth in subscriptions. Operating profit was up 16% in this quarter, so there was a contraction in operating profit margin from 30% to 28%. I’ve been invested in Karooooo for long enough to not be bothered by this.
Albeit off a small base, special mention goes to the DaaS business for growing operating profit by 50% to R15 million. The margin is still only 8% in that business, so I’m hoping that they can achieve margin expansion as the business scales.
Adjusted earnings per share increased by 11%. There’s no shame in double-digit growth!
Other important metrics relate to the cash generated by the group. As Karooooo invests in telematics devices to be put in customer vehicles, cash doesn’t always align with earnings.
In this period, net cash from operations before working capital changes increased by 21%. But once you reach free cash flow, having taken off the extensive investment in devices, you’ll find a sharp decline from R338 million to just R60 million. This volatility is pretty normal on a quarterly basis, so I wouldn’t read much into it. Karooooo has been executing this business model for a long time.
Guidance for FY27 is unchanged at this stage, although the underlying management commentary is bullish to say the least. They expect growth in expenses to moderate, unlocking space for margin to increase. Investors will also expect to see a positive swing in free cash flow as devices are deployed.
Ghost Bite: This is a strong start to FY27. With a total return of 161% over 3 years, Karooooo has been a great performer in my portfolio.
Prosus will be paid over R40 billion for the remaining stake in Delivery Hero (JSE: PRX)
The acquirer is Uber, giving us a sign that food delivery competition in Europe is heating up
Prosus has given an irrevocable undertaking to Uber to sell the remaining 16.8% in Delivery Hero. This is directly related to the terms of the European Commission’s approval of the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com by Prosus.
The requirements of the regulatory were vague to say the least, with Prosus needing to “significantly reduce” its stake of 26.5% at the time. There’s a point at which it simply doesn’t make sense to have shares anymore, hence the decision to sell the entire remaining stake to Uber.
This is part of a broader play by Uber for Delivery Hero, with a recently announced offer of €41.50 per share. Uber’s offer represents a 151% premium to the 30-day VWAP before Prosus first announced the disposal of 4.5% to Uber back in April this year.
Uber’s offer values Delivery Hero at nearly $15 billion. Prosus has 16.8% of that pie, so the expected proceeds will be over R40 billion before costs. That’s a proper payday that I hope will primarily be put towards share repurchases.
As an aside, I can only imagine how irritating it is for the European Commission that Uber is their saviour in terms of achieving competition in this space!
Ghost Bite: The success of Prosus CEO Fabricio Bloisi’s tenure will largely depend on the successful implementation of the Just Eat Takeaway.com opportunity. They made a big decision to step into that space and walk away from Delivery Hero.
Supermarket Income REIT raised the £100 million they wanted (JSE: SRI)
But the raise wasn’t upsized, which suggests that demand didn’t blow them away
Earlier in the week, Supermarket Income REIT announced that they were looking to raise £100 million in fresh equity to support an acquisition pipeline of nine assets. They also announced the details of three of the assets, with only a vague indication given of the remaining six.
The fund has a very tight strategy, with a focus on properties with leading grocery chains as the anchor tenant. This means that they can get away with being vague, as the market knows that the company will largely stick to its knitting.
The £100 million was raised without any issue. The investors were a combination of UK and South African institutions, as well as UK-based retail investors. South African retail investors weren’t given an opportunity to participate.
The shares were issued at 83 pence per share – quite a discount to the 89 pence per share price on the London Stock Exchange at the start of the week.
Ghost Bite: Supermarket Income REIT initially noted that the raise might be upsized, but that didn’t happen. It seems that the UK property market is still a tough sell to investors, as this raise was harder to get away than some of the other recent activity we’ve seen (like Hyprop’s (JSE: HYP) capital raise).
Results of previous poll:
Nibbles:
Brait (JSE: BAT) has confirmed that all conditions precedent for the rights offer have been met. This means they can proceed with their plan to raise R2.5 billion from participating shareholders at a price of R1.51 per share. The shares will represent 30% of the company’s post-rights offer share capital. As I’ve pointed out several times, this is the strangest “value unlock” strategy around.
Efora Energy (JSE: EEL), suspended from trading and looking to put itself into provisional liquidation, announced that Vuyo Ngonyama has resigned as chairman of the board and as an independent non-executive director.
This edition of Ghost Bites makes sense of these SENS announcements:
Accelerate Property Fund sells the BMW showroom in Fourways and gives earnings guidance
Alphamin’s latest quarter has been driven by tin prices – but how does the AI theme affect this company?
Purple Group is acquiring Telescope AI, but there are questions around the valuation
Sappi’s latest quarter isn’t quite as bad as expected
Always do your own advice and speak to your financial advisor before making any investments. The Finance Ghost may hold positions in any of these stocks at time of recording or subsequently.
Supermarket Income REIT will add three grocery supermarkets to its portfolio in a £118 million deal. The UK stores include a Sainsbury store in Manchester and two Tesco stores, one in Edinburgh and the other in Halifax. The company has raised gross proceeds of £100 million via the placement of 120,481,928 shares at an issue price of 83 pence per share for accretive acquisitions such as this.
Prosus has undertaken to sell all its remaining 16.8% stake in Delivery Hero to Uber Technologies at a purchase price of €41.50 per ordinary share for €2,1 million (c.R40 million). The deal represents a 151% premium over Delivery Hero’s 1-month VWAP before the announcement of the company’s initial 4.5% stake sale to Uber.
Purple Group and First World Trader (EasyEquities) will each acquire 50% of Telescope AI, an AI provider of AI investment discovery, research, technical analysis, conversational intelligence and compliance infrastructure to brokerages and trading platforms. The deal is worth up to US$10,75 million: Purple Group will pay $7 million on closing of which $5 million will be in cash and $2 million through the issue of 19,1 million new Purple Group shares. A further $3,75 million is payable in deferred consideration over time – up to $2,75 million in five equal annual instalments, subject to Telescope AI’s operating cash outflows staying within agreed limits, and up to $1 million under a performance-based accelerator tied to milestones over five years. The deferred amounts may be settled in cash or shares at Purple Group’s election. Completion of the deal is subject to approval from the SARB.
Southern Ocean has acquired Southern Atlantic Cables, a specialist supplier of electrical wire and related products, for a purchase consideration of R4,5 million. The acquisition is intended to strengthen South Ocean’s position within the electrical wire and related infrastructure sectors, by securing a foothold in the Cape Town market. The purchase consideration will be settled through the issue of 4,591,837 ordinary shares in South Ocean at an issue price of 98 cents per share.
Mantengu has entered into an agreement to dispose of the iron beneficiation plant located in Phalaborwa, Limpopo for R50 million. The plant was acquired by the company for R18,98 million in February 2025 from Masorini Iron Beneficiation, which at the time, was in liquidation.
iOCO has acquired South African enterprise resource planning solutions provider Astraia Technologies for an undisclosed sum. The company specialises in cloud ERP implementations, financial software integration and business process optimisation. The acquisition will enhance iOCO’s infrastructure and managed services capabilities, while broadening the Group’s access to enterprise customers and vendor ecosystems.
Serowe Industries has terminated its non-binding offer from to acquire up to a 34.9% stake in Visual International.
Unlisted Companies
Knife Capital, alongside FAM Investments, has co-led a US$5 million funding round by Cue, a South African autonomous AI customer service platform. The funding will be used for further product development, international expansion and deeper investment in voice, security and enterprise integrations.
The Competition Commission has given the green light to Harith GP to acquire FlySafair, a deal announced in February this year. There were competition concerns as Harith owns a significant stake in Lanseria. The deal will now seek approval from the Competition Tribunal.
Supermarket Income REIT has raised gross proceeds of £100 million via the placement of 120,481,928 shares at an issue price of 83 pence per share. The new shares represent c.10% of the existing issue share capital of the company. The equity raise will part fund a pipeline of nine grocery assets for £215 million which includes this week’s announced £118 million acquisition of a portfolio of three UK supermarkets.
Brait will proceed with the Rights Offer to raise gross proceeds of R2,5 billion through the subscription of 1,655,629,139 shares at a price of R1,51 per share – representing a 25% discount. The shares will constitute c.30% of the company’s post-Rights Offer ordinary share capital. The offer is fully committed and underwritten.
ASP Isotopes has agreed to exchange certain Quantum Leap Energy (a subsidiary of ASP) convertible notes for ordinary shares. ASPI will exchange 23,2 million ASPI shares, representing 17.8% of ASPI’s shares for an aggregate principal amount of US$109,2 million of outstanding QLE Notes.
Novus has acquired an additional 131,346 Mustek shares at an average R15.00 per share on the open market (outside of the Mandatory Offer) for R1,97 million. The company now holds 29,16 million Mustek shares constituting 50.67% of the issued shares in Mustek. Together with concert parties this shareholding increases to c.70.96%.
Labat Africa has transferred 900,000,000 ordinary shares in the company in respect of its R27 million acquisition of a further 24.45% stake in Classic International. The shares were issued at R0.03 per share.
Following the results of the scrip dividend election, Afine Investments will issue 1,145,369 new ordinary shares in the company in lieu of an interim dividend, resulting in a capitalisation of the distributable retained profits in the company of R5,02 million. The shares were based on a reinvestment price of R4.38 per share.
Master Drilling has received the required exchange control approval from the SARB to pay shareholders a special dividend of R0.40 per share from income reserves. Payment date is set for 17 August 2026.
Old Mutual is set to apply to migrate its foreign listing on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange to that of the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange. The VFEX is a US dollar-denominated exchange which will result in lower currency risk than that of the ZSE.
This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:
Hudaco Industries has repurchased 1,499,892 shares at R189 per share for an aggregate R283,5 million. The repurchase was funded from available cash resources and represents 4.86% of the company’s share capital at the time the authority was granted.
Reinet Investments intends to purchase its ordinary shares at market value for an aggregate maximum amount of €500 million subject to a maximum of 16.5 million ordinary shares over a period up to the 2027 Annual General Meeting of the Company. The implementation will be through several successive and separate programmes and shares will not be cancelled. The Rupert family has declared its intention not to sell any shares during the duration of this Programme. This week Reinet acquired 409,935 shares on the JSE for an aggregate R182 million.
To reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders, Quilter commenced, in March 2026, a £100 million share buyback programme. Repurchases to date total £40 million of which £32 million were conducted on the LSE and £8 million were conducted on the JSE. The maximum aggregate purchase price payable by the Company under Tranche 2 is up to C.£30 million. During the period 6 to 10 July 2026, Quilter repurchased 66,000 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £133,274 and 116,278 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R5,20 million.
In June, Greencoat Renewables announced its intention to commence a second tranche of the repurchase programme which will return a further €25m of capital to shareholders, following the completion of the first tranche which is expected during July. The second tranche repurchase will be complete by end-December 2026. This week 1,010,339 shares were repurchased for an aggregate €767,809.
Bytes Technology announced in May 2026 its intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million. This week the company repurchased 275,000 shares at an average price per share of £3.99 for an aggregate £1,09 million.
In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. All shares repurchased will be cancelled. Over the period 6 to 10 July 2026, the company repurchased a further 565,783 shares at an average price of £45.83 per share for an aggregate £25,72 million.
Ninety One plc announced an increase in the repurchase programme from £30 million to £55 million to be completed by 21 July 2026. The shares, to be purchased on the open market, will be cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 786,136 ordinary shares at an average price 217 pence for an aggregate £1,7 million.
Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 6 to 10 July 2026, the group repurchased 536,830 shares for €37,62 million.
During the period 6 to 10 July 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,527,143 Prosus shares for an aggregate €99,97 million and Naspers, a further 1,121,078 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R965,41 million.
Six companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Mantengu, Tongaat Hulett, Raubex, Numeral, Newpark REIT and ArcelorMittal South Africa.
Noma Services Consolidated, a Nigerian agribusiness specialising in the aggregation and processing of commodities including rice, maize, sorghum, and beans, has closed a US$650,000 loan facility from Sahel Capital’s Social Enterprise Fund for Agriculture in Africa (SEFAA). The facility comprises $400,000 for working capital and $250,000 for capital expenditure.
Egyptian integrated e-commerce last-mile delivery and fulfilment company, Mylerz Egypt, has raised more than US$2 million (EGP100 million) in a funding round led by Lorax Capital Partners, with participation from Fawry and a group of existing investors. The new debt and equity funding be deployed to bolster Mylerz Egypt’s continued growth across the Egyptian market.
Impact Fund Denmark is investing €25 million in subordinated debt to NSIA Bank in Côte d’Ivoire, a subsidiary of the pan-African NSIA Group, to support its plans to increase lending to micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) annually over the coming years. The investment will strengthen the bank’s capital base, enabling it to scale lending to underserved MSMEs and support its long-term growth strategy.
TLG Capital has announced a US$5 million private credit facility for SHONA Capital, backing the SMEs that will drive Uganda’s next chapter of growth. The facility was designed to accelerate SHONA’s next phase of growth: quadrupling their loan book, expanding across Uganda, and attracting additional institutional partners. At the core of SHONA Capital’s model is its proprietary underwriting process and technology, which automates borrower onboarding, data processing, credit assessment, and management support. This allows SHONA Capital to disburse funds within 5 – 10 days, advancing digital financial inclusion for businesses that banks and microfinance institutions have historically been unable to reach.
Raxio Group, the African data centre platform, has surpassed US$380 million in committed capital as shareholders Meridiam and Roha increased their support for the company’s next phase of growth. The additional equity from Roha and Meridiam extends Raxio’s capital base from a previous $350 million, building on a $100 million financing package secured from the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) last year, along with debt funding from Proparco and the Emerging Africa & Asia Infrastructure Fund (EAAIF).
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