AI has moved beyond experimentation. It now sits at the centre of decision-making. At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, the conversation is clear – how can leaders use AI to drive growth, manage risk and reshape work.
In episode 2 of our Davos Debrief series, Jeremy Maggs speaks to Lyndon Subroyen, Investec’s Global Head of Digital & Technology, on why AI is a platform shift, not a passing trend, and what that means for strategy, talent and long-term competitiveness.
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
BHP had a strong start to 2025 and is singing a bullish tune (JSE: BHG)
Importantly, they feel more confident on copper guidance
As we know, copper is all the rage at the moment. In an update for the six months to December 2025, BHP highlights that there was a 32% increase in copper prices. That certainly does the job, with a 4% increase in iron ore prices as further good news.
You still have to mine the stuff of course, something that BHP seems to be doing rather well. Based on the first-half performance and the outlook for 2026, they’ve raised the midpoint of copper guidance. This is an important step in maintaining the support of the market for the extensive efforts in copper.
In iron ore, the Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) business achieved record production and has given the group a strong foundation as they head into the traditionally wet third quarter. You may recall that they also announced a deal with Global Infrastructure Partners that should unlock capital tied up in WAIO’s inland power network.
Steelmaking coal and energy coal both increased as well.
Looking to the future, the Jansen potash project in Canada is on track for production to start in mid-2027. In a separate update on the day, BHP noted that the cost estimate for the project has been increased from $7 billion to $7.4 billion. That’s not ideal obviously, with inflationary pressures clearly coming through here. With around 18 months still to go on this project, the risk is that costs come in even higher than the revised expectations. There are also risks of delays, even though the project is 75% complete at the moment.
Based on the updated expectations for Jansen, the project has an internal rate of return of 7.9% to 9.1% (is this really enough, even in hard currency?) and a payback period of 11 to 15 years. This gives you insight into how difficult the capital allocation decisions are, as they need to invest on a through-the-cycle basis.
Although the production story is bullish overall in terms of volumes, the unit cost guidance is unchanged for all assets. This is another indication of inflationary pressures coming through the system.
Unsurprisingly, Merafe’s production has fallen through the floor (JSE: MRF)
This is what happens when your smelters are suspended
The ferrochrome industry is in crisis. Smelters are struggling to be economically viable, as they are high energy users and Eskom is taking no prisoners in terms of energy costs. A stable financial power utility is good news for South Africa, but it has really tightened the screws on industrial users.
With smelters suspended from operating in this environment as they would be losing money, Merafe’s attributable ferrochrome production from the joint venture with Glencore (JSE: GLN) fell to almost zero in the quarter ended December. They literally managed attributable production of 0.1 kt vs. 70 kt in the December 2024 quarter. The year-on-year decline may be 63%, but that isn’t even getting close to telling the real story of what will happen with more quarters of negligible production.
Attributable chrome ore production was up slightly at 222 kt, which means the annual result of 932 kt was almost 2% lower on a year-on-year basis. They attribute this decrease to temporary equipment breakdowns.
PGMs concentrate production was 4 koz, up from 3 koz in the December 2024 quarter. The full year result of 15 koz was higher than 2024 at 14 koz.
The share price is down 26% in the past 12 months. The only reason it isn’t much lower is that the market is hoping for a resolution of the energy issue with Eskom. As the saying goes: hope isn’t a strategy.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
A director or senior executive of Richemont (JSE: CFR) sold shares worth around R10.7 million. This is Switzerland we are talking about, so the announcement doesn’t include the name of the person involved. There was another share sale announcement by Richemont, but it looks like it relates to the sale of share options with no indication of the taxable portion.
The CEO of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) sold shares worth around R5.5 million. It’s a small portion of his stake, but still a significant sale when viewed in isolation.
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) has bought more shares for his family, this time to the value of R85k.
A director of a major subsidiary of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R42k.
Here’s an odd one that you certainly won’t see every day: two directors of Visual International (JSE: VIS) have partially reversed a trade with each other. The reversed trade has a value of R500k. And no, the website still doesn’t work.
Araxi (JSE: AXX) – previously known as Capital Appreciation Limited, in case you’ve forgotten the change of name – has renewed its cautionary announcement regarding a potential acquisition of a controlling interest in a payment services business. The payments segment is certainly the area of the business they should be focusing on expanding, as the other major segment in the group (software) has been a detractor from the story rather than a strong element of the bull case. At this stage, there’s no guarantee of a deal happening.
Raubex (JSE: RBX) is another company that has renewed its cautionary announcement. They are considering a disposal of Bauba Resources (either the entire stake or a portion). The wording is deliberately vague as they are giving themselves maximum flexibility. I think getting out of that asset would be beneficial to the investment case.
Alphamin had a strong 2025 despite security challenges (JSE: APH)
And the share price has rewarded those who took a punt
To say that Alphamin has been on a choppy journey would be an understatement. Check out this share price:
There’s clearly plenty of money that could’ve been made along the way, but it’s also possible to have bought the early peaks and been flat for the past few years. Also take note of the horrible dip in early 2025 in response to security fears in the DRC. The share price is up more than 2.2x since then!
This recovery has been driven by the only thing that investors want to see: tin coming out of the ground and producing cash. The security risks are never zero, which is why African mining businesses tend to trade at valuations that consider the risk. But as cash is banked and the balance sheet is shored up, investors breathe a collective sigh of relief – and pay more for the shares.
Alphamin has now released the results for the year and quarter ended December 2025. FY25 tin production was up 7% and sales volumes increased 4%. But thanks to a 13% jump in the average tin price achieved, EBITDA was up by a juicy 25%. Remember, this was despite the security issues in March/April that led to a suspension in operations. Shareholders will be more than happy with that!
Looking at Q4 vs. Q3 as a measure of momentum, tin production dipped 4% and sales were down 2%. The average tin price rose by 12% though (yes, quarter-on-quarter!) and so EBITDA increased by 13%. Production will always be volatile if you isolate each quarter, as mining isn’t exactly flipping burgers.
The encouraging element of this update is the momentum in the tin price and what this means for earnings, while recognising that FY25 was a strong year overall despite such challenges.
Alphamin’s cash balance improved from $30 million to $56 million over 12 months. Their next dividend decision will be made in April 2026. Naturally, the current trajectory of tin prices is bullish for cash payments to shareholders. They just need that trajectory to continue.
On the exploration side, recent drilling at Mpama South and Mpama North has delivered disappointing results. Although this doesn’t affect near-term cash flows, this is something investors will need to consider in terms of the longer-term value of the project and the valuation that it trades at.
Here’s another thing investors need to think about: CEO Maritz Smith has decided to retire after more than six years. The current CFO, Eoin O’Driscoll, will step up to the CEO role. JP van Staden, previously the CFO of the operating subsidiary in the DRC, will take the group CFO role. It’s always good to see internal succession like this.
Sibanye-Stillwater plots a way forward with lithium (JSE: SSW)
A staged approach is preferred for the Keliber project in Finland
Sibanye-Stillwater can certainly breathe a sigh or two of relief at the moment. The incredible PGM rally as a follow-on to the gold rally has delivered a share price return of a whopping 320% in the past year. And if you can believe it, the return over 5 years is just 12%! When people talk about cyclical companies, this is the kind of business they are referring to.
With the core business printing cash at the moment, Sibanye can afford to dedicate more time and attention to some of the other investments in the group, like the Keliber lithium project in Finland. These projects are all about careful planning, particularly in the context of market conditions.
The cold commissioning of the fully integrated project is on track for Q1 2026 with a total capital investment of around €783 million. But the real focus is on the plan for the ramp-up of the project and pathway to production, with a staged approach agreed between Sibanye and its partner in the project, Finnish Minerals Group.
This partner, owned by the State of Finland, intends to participate in further equity funding on a pro rata basis in terms of its existing stake of 20%. This is a strategically important project in the EU. Given the geopolitical environment at the moment, anything that improves European independence from other major regions will be given priority.
What does a staged approach really mean? Essentially, they are maintaining maximum flexibility and moving carefully through the pre-operational phase. This includes engaging with potential strategic off-takers as well. If you can imagine a game of hide-and-seek, this approach means checking each room carefully and plotting your move into the next one, rather than charging through the house to see what might happen behind the curtains.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
An executive of Investec (JSE: INL | JSE: INP) sold shares worth R4.5 million.
A director of Dipula Properties (JSE: DIB) bought shares worth R167k.
Europa Metals (JSE: EUZ) will pay a return of capital to shareholders in February 2026 after shareholders approved the payment at a general meeting. The amount is 21.993 cents per share.
Numeral (JSE: XII) has confirmed that the 10:1 share consolidation will be completed by 2nd February. This is an important step to take the company out of impractical “penny stock” territory where there isn’t a practical bid-offer spread.
Priscilla Msimanga made the leap that so many dream of, yet few are willing to make: leaving a big corporate role and shifting into the grinding world of entrepreneurship. To add to the intrigue, she bought a Shell forecourt and stepped into specialist retail.
From managing staff to complying with petroleum regulations, the learning curve was steep. Drawing on her corporate experience, her love of sales and her passion for service, Priscilla rolled up her sleeves and did everything – from pumping fuel to serving food.
And yes, that means there’s a food truck to go with this great story!
On episode 7 of The Finance Ghost Plugged in with Capitec, Priscilla tells us more about her leap from corporate life to entrepreneurship.
Episode 7 covers:
Her corporate background and why she wanted to do something of her own
How she prepared before leaving corporate
Finding the right forecourt to buy
The retail strategy of a forecourt and adapting to local consumer tastes
Why hands-on involvement matters for success
An honest look at the short-term financial impact of leaving corporate and starting a business
The Finance Ghost plugged in with Capitec is made possible by the support of Capitec Business. All the entrepreneurs featured on this podcast are clients of Capitec. Capitec is an authorised Financial Services Provider, FSP number 46669.
Listen to the podcast here:
Read the transcript:
The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of TheFinance Ghost plugged in with Capitec. What a wonderful podcast season we are having. We’ve spoken to some really interesting entrepreneurs doing all kinds of different things.
We’ve covered retail, we’ve covered restaurants, we’ve covered pharmacy. We’ve covered a whole bunch of things, and today we are doing something completely different.
What I’m particularly excited about with this podcast is that we will be speaking to someone who has done something that so many people dream of, and that is to leave their corporate job and go off and either start a business or acquire a business.
So many of the other people I’ve spoken to on this podcast season, they either started the business quite young or they’d been entrepreneurs for a very long time. Whereas for Priscilla Msimanga, the owner of Shell Boksburg Motors, this is actually quite new for you, which I think is great! A nice fresh journey into entrepreneurship, having left the typical corporate jobs and very senior roles.
So, Priscilla, thank you so much. Really excited to just get to know you and to talk about this. Because, as I say, I think what you’ve done is something that many people, when they’re sitting in traffic on the way to work, fantasise about doing. So, congratulations!
Priscilla Msimanga: Thank you! Good morning, Ghost, and good morning to your listeners. Thanks for having me.
The Finance Ghost: No, it’s great to have you. Let’s jump straight into that path that you have travelled, and then we’ll talk about the business that you own today.
So, let’s just get a backstory here. What was your career before you decided to get out of corporate and go into entrepreneurship?
Priscilla Msimanga: It was a weird sort of career, right? So, I studied business engineering, but I ended up in IT about 20 years ago – by chance, because I’m one of those people who like taking risks. So, I went into IT.
I got to move into SAB (South African Breweries) after being headhunted, and went into Head of IT (well, not Head of IT, but sort of Service Operations Manager, which is a Head of IT at a smaller scale) for a site, which was Egoli. That’s where my journey started, with IT, until three years ago when I decided I needed to pursue my love.
I’ve always been an entrepreneur at heart. I’ve always been that person who grew up in the dusty streets of Sebokeng, selling stuff. My mother never had a job. She made jobs by selling, and had a spaza shop, so that’s where the passion came from.
From a corporate perspective, I grew up in the ranks and became Head of IT for a multinational in Cape Town. Two multinationals, actually – by the time I left, I was a Head of BSS (Business Support Systems) for MiX Telematics, and before that, I worked for Philip Morris.
But MiX Telematics was more of a contract role, because I had started on the journey of, “I want to be an entrepreneur. I want to build a legacy, as opposed to being an employee.”
So, yeah, that’s kind of my journey. Loved corporate, loved IT, loved doing it. Loved the interaction with people – that was my passion. My last VP actually said to me, “You are more of a marketing person than an IT person.” I was like, “Yeah, maybe I am!”
So, yes, that’s how I started my journey. It wasn’t easy leaving corporate, because of the security around where your next salary is going to come from. I’ve grown quite a bit. I have a growth mindset. Studied quite a bit – you don’t have to pay for it, they actually pay for it. So, it was quite easy to do that.
It wasn’t a very easy decision to say, “I’m going into entrepreneurship,” but I was pushed more about building my own legacy and actually being an employer, as opposed to being an employee.
The Finance Ghost: Absolutely, I love that story. So, I always laugh – there’s this standard joke that goes along the lines of, “Instead of working 40 hours a week for someone else, I want to work 60 or 70 hours a week for myself!” Because entrepreneurs, of course, have gone through the long hours. They understand this. I’m sure that’s been your experience as well (although it doesn’t sound like your jobs were exactly 40 hours a week to start with). But I think there’s a good underlying point there around what it’s like to go from corporate into an entrepreneurial environment, and actually deal with that adjustment.
I love the reference there to taking risks, and that informal economy experience when you were growing up. It’s amazing how those experiences shape what people do later in life, it really is. And it comes through as you speak to entrepreneurs. They all have a relatively common thread that goes through their backstories around either their parents were hustlers, or they were, or it’s side gigs, or it’s holiday jobs, or it was something at high school. Something triggered an interest for them, and then it’s stayed with them.
And that comment you made about being more of a marketing person, I also really like that. Because if you work for yourself, you work in sales. Primarily, you work in sales. You’ve got to keep everything else going, all the operational stuff, but you’re a salesperson.
So, well done on making the leap. I think that’s fantastic. How did you actually make the final decision? Because, as you say, it’s not an easy thing to do, it’s not an easy decision to make, especially with large corporates.
It is quite a nice safety net, and like you say, lots of opportunities to grow, to study further. When you get to that level, you’re leaving behind quite a lot, and I think that’s what stops people from doing it.
So, what was the final decision for you? What made you say, “That’s it, I’m out of here. I’m leaving corporate”?
Priscilla Msimanga: Age. And moving to Gauteng. This was weird, how this came about, right? A friend of mine, while I was busy with a presentation for the ExCo, said to me, “There is a site in Leeu-Gamka.” Leeu-Gamka, of all places!
She kept on pestering me, and I was like, “Okay, let me just do this for them, let me get it out of the way,” because she had already acquired one. And two years later, then the process started, right?
And I’m still working. And I’m like, “Maybe let me pursue this,” and it started being interesting. I don’t know this, and I want to see what this has got for me. Because I always took risks, I was like, “I’m going to go for it.”
And that was the time when I made a decision, “In two or three years, I must be out of corporate.” I had to move to Gauteng in…2023? 2022, actually, and then I got to do the job with MiX in 2023.
But during that time, when I got into MiX, it was already set up. It was just getting a site and getting in there and starting the business, because I started in 2024. I was appointed in 2024 very early, around Feb. So, yeah, that’s how it started.
It was more of a push that, “You’ve got to go. Now it’s time.” Because I put it off, from the age of 27 until later in life. That I needed to go. So, until later in life, I’m like, “If I don’t do this now, I’ll probably never do it.” And then I just decided not to go for corporate anymore, and to pursue this full time.
The Finance Ghost: So, the one thing there that’s so interesting, Priscilla (and it’s, I think, also in my own experience, so true) is that kind of two- to three-year runway from when you decide, “Okay, it’s time to go.” It’s almost impossible to then do it straight away. You’ve still got to actually give yourself runway.
And two to three years is pretty common, actually. I think mine was even longer than that. I had this spreadsheet on my computer for a very long time, called ‘Escape Plan’.
And ‘Escape Plan’ was basically me making sure that whenever I added a monthly overhead, I used to put it on the Escape Plan and be like, “Look, is this an overhead where there’s no flex? Is this an overhead that can go away if it needs to? And then, what would I have to earn in order to escape?”
And people think people just wake up – they look at a successful entrepreneur, and they go like, “This guy or this lady just left corporate one day, and it worked.” It’s not actually how it works. You’ve got to plan for this thing, and you’ve got to adapt your life to it. You’ve got to get ready for it. Maybe we can chat about that just now.
But what I would like to understand is, you talk about these sites being ‘ready’, so this is the decision to go into fuel retail, these forecourts. As I said earlier, Shell Boksburg Motors – that’s you.
From Cape Town to Boksburg, that’s a reasonably unusual path (I think the other way around is more common, let’s be honest). So, from Cape Town to Boksburg you went, and you went and got this forecourt site.
How did this happen? How did the sites become available? What was the situation to be able to get one, to qualify? What was the backstory that got you to say, “Not only am I leaving corporate, I’m going to go and acquire a petrol station”? Which is a really interesting thing to do!
Priscilla Msimanga: So, to answer your first question, how did it happen? Moving to Joburg was an “I need to go back home”. Because Joburg is home. Boksburg, I already had a base because I held a house there, so it made more sense that I move back to my place.
So, the place that I applied for was not in Boksburg, it was somewhere in the Pretoria area. But there are a couple of sites that usually come up. When, during that process, the Boksburg site came up, I was like, “Okay, maybe I should try this one.”
It takes, literally, a year before everything is sorted, because it’s quite a process. It’s an advertisement on the site – I recommend that people check the fuel sites, different brands. They advertise petroleum sites on there. That’s what I did. I found a site, and I went and applied.
You’ve got to have a good idea of the area. You’ve got to create a business plan that shows the financials, the marketing. You’ve got to know at least a lot about the financial and the environmental sort of SWOT of that area.
I had to create that in preparation for this, because you go through three different interviews. The first one is pretty much around, “What is it that you know about the site?” You present your basic business plan – there’s a template, of course, but you’ve got to have your own so that it can feed into this.
It was luck that I actually lived in Boksburg before. So, I understood the area very well. I understood the LSM, which worked in my advantage. I understood the dynamics that they wanted in the place.
Then we went to the second interview, which is pretty much about the sales and the execs of Shell that will sit down and say, “What do you know about this place? What value are you bringing? What is it that you will change? What do the financials look like? Most importantly, do you have the money to buy it?”
So, the preparation we spoke about (of three years) was the money part, right? Because you’ve got to have at least 20% – depending on which bank you go for, 20% to 40% – of the actual capital. I needed to have that money. So, during that time, it was the savings, it was like, “Every penny counts, because this is what I want to do.” It’s the availability of that money – proving that you have it.
Then after that, it’s the actual work. After they say yes, it’s the licensing from a DMRE (Department of Mineral Resources and Energy) perspective. It takes about six months for that to happen, to have a final trading licence.
You’ve got to go into, “What’s my working capital? What does the site look like?” Now it’s real. It’s no longer pen and paper. It’s, “How do I make this work? How do I get the money to actually make it work?”
And I had to get the 20%, of course. I proved that. I had to go to all the banks – and Capitec (yay!) was amazing, they actually came out quicker than most of the banks – because they look at the risk, right?
“This is Priscilla, who comes from corporate, who’s an IT Head. What does she know about petroleum?” So, it presents a little bit of a, “Are we getting ourselves into a corner here? Will she do this? From computers to petrol – what is she doing?”
I think they took a leap of faith and appointed me. I went through a couple of sort of government financial institutions, which couldn’t come through in time. Some of the banks were a bit slower, but Capitec was much, much faster.
And this is where I am. And then the work starts. You pay the person, then you start working. You do not know anything about this business. But what I did, though, which was smart, was, between the Leeu-Gamka situation and when I took over, I took time to learn the business.
Being in a petrol station and just putting petrol is the least complex of all, but when you get into the business, there are so many things that you have to be aware of. There are so many things that you have to comply with.
There are a lot of requirements. From a business, from a South African perspective, from the licensing, from the food safety. There are so many nitty-gritties that I had to comply with.
But because I had already, for at least a year, been going to this other lady who helped me quite a lot in Pretoria. At least 180 hours, which I spent with her, just to understand the business.
Because the first one, I didn’t get, because I didn’t have the operational knowledge. And it was a challenge for me, like, “Go for the operational knowledge.” I had to go and learn, and it was quite interesting.
I’m like, “Sho. We just come in and pump petrol, and then you’re like, ‘I’m paying.’ And that’s it.” But there are quite a lot of things that happen behind the scenes.
So, yeah, that’s how the journey was, and how I got into a relationship with Capitec, as well.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, very cool. I love that that’s come through. I was going to ask you what difference Capitec made in the process, and you’ve already answered the question, which is lovely.
And like you say, it’s such a big adjustment actually going into a business, right? You spoke earlier about how, if you’d stayed in corporate, maybe you would have been able to study further. I think you’ve learned much more by leaving corporate and actually spreading your wings and going out into a business like this.
Because that’s the biggest thing with entrepreneurship – you have to understand the entire business, and then you have to actually figure out how all of the different elements work. And this is where it’s so interesting.
So, especially with a business like that, I can imagine the risk and compliance stuff must be through the roof. Because, I mean, it’s as flammable as it gets. Let’s call a spade a spade – a forecourt is basically a great big bomb inside concrete. So, it comes with a ton of health and safety stuff.
And then you’ve got the store, which has to have the right strategy for the area. So, like you said, you’ve got to understand the local area. Because it’s a retailer, and like any retailer, if you don’t understand the average customer – a forecourt in a very rich area is going to sell something completely different to a forecourt in a lower-income area.
And you can see it when you look at the specials. If you go into a fancy area and you put petrol in your car, you’re going to go into the forecourt – they’re going to have freshly baked goods, it’s going to be Magnums on sale. It’s that kind of vibe.
When you go into a lower-income area, it’s pies, and it’s Score energy drinks. You’ve got to respond to the people in the area. That’s how retailers make money. So, there’s a lot to learn. I can imagine it’s been such an interesting business.
When you look back on it now, and as you continue to run this thing, what would you say was actually the biggest challenge in getting up the curve on understanding how the business works?
What was really, really difficult, and which pieces do you think were maybe a little bit easier?
Priscilla Msimanga: I think for me, the people part was the most challenging part. Forecourt, there is a best practice, so you probably can – if you’re from corporate, you’re used to standard operating procedures, you know that in terms of compliance, this is what I should do.
From the shop perspective, I had a little bit of knowledge around what LSMs are there and what it is that I need to sell. We used to sell things that are not relevant, and you look at the pricing and that, so you kind of have a strategy.
But human beings, you can’t have a strategy for. Because they are very different in nature. But I’ve always been very fascinated by the human mind, especially now that I’ve moved from managing professionals to now managing the forecourt staff. It’s very different, the different spaces.
So, for me, it was that. You’ll be surprised that, because this is a cents and rands business, theft is a huge thing. So, that was my challenge. How do I make the team be part of the business, if you get what I mean?
Most of the time, we employ people, but I wanted them to be part of the business and care about the business. Because if you do, then you get them to be loyal and know that “If I steal, then I would not be able to get a salary.” That understanding.
And also the customer service aspect of it, because I’ve always been very passionate about customer service. We don’t want you to come to the garage… The last thing I want is for you to be in the forecourt, trying to pour petrol, and it takes 10 minutes. I’m like, “What are we doing?”
So, I wanted people who are energetic. I wanted the spirit that I have – the passion of what I do, and the pride of what I do. I love owning a petrol station. I love being on that forecourt and gooi-ing petrol into that car.
The Finance Ghost: I was going to ask, if you are there pumping petrol sometimes! I can totally imagine you doing it.
Priscilla Msimanga: I am pumping petrol.
The Finance Ghost: There we go, I knew it!
Priscilla Msimanga: I’m being the cashier. I am everything, basically, most of the time. Of course, not all the time, because there are things that I need to do. But if the forecourt is full, I will say, “Give me my tag, I’m going to go on that forecourt and gooi.”
The Finance Ghost: Nice.
Priscilla Msimanga: Because we need those cars to move. And also, this is a business where you have to be highly involved. And the fact that I knew I didn’t know. It’s a very good position to be, when you say, “I’ve only learned this for the past 14 months.”
Compared to someone who’s been doing it for five years, they assume that they know. But I knew I didn’t know enough, so I had to learn. What I learned in the other spaces, now I had to practice, replicate.
And the only way to do that is to be involved. Be that cashier. Understand when a customer says, “Oh! You’re always out of Grand-Pa, what is wrong?” Then you know what to address.
Or when you are in a forecourt, and the person is upset because he said he wanted R100 and they gooi R200. So, you find ways of having a strategy on, “How do we satisfy a customer and, at the same time, not lose money?”
So, yes, I love being on that forecourt. I always say, “I’m from heels to boots.” Safety boots, because you’re wearing your safety boots on the forecourt. You have to be an example. I can’t come in wearing high heels on the forecourt. It will be an HSSE (Health, Safety, Security, and Environment) issue.
So, yes, I am on the forecourt all the time, very involved financially. Cash-ups, I do it. I check every little cent from banks. The merchants were another thing where I thought, “It’s easy.” Banks do not take two seconds to open a merchant account. It took, like, months. So, yeah.
The human element was the challenge, but I think I’m in a space where everyone understands what I expect. It’s been 14 months or so, and they understand what I’m at. They see it live, they see the passion. You can’t not have passion if the person who owns the place actually goes on the forecourt. Why do you say I can’t? So, it’s been quite a challenging part of this for me. The other parts are pretty much standard. I was able to comply.
And why I say it’s been something that I’m proud of is, this quarter, out of 583 stations, I’m number 15, and I haven’t even traded for two years. So, there’s something that we are doing right.
The Finance Ghost: Well done! And, yeah, I love the passion coming through there. It’s so obvious. That’s why I guessed that you were probably out there, as you say, gooi-ing petrol, because you just strike me as someone who gets involved. And I think that’s key here.
I was going to ask you if you have to actually be there all the time? Or can you trust a station manager to get it done? I guess when people own multiple forecourts, you can’t cut yourself into lots of pieces, so you have to get to the point where you have people you can trust.
But I guess, early days like this, you’ve got to understand how the entire business works. And that’s an interesting point. Because I’ve seen people in my life who have started businesses, and they start something where they either have very little idea of how it works – and that’s still okay, provided you’re willing to learn.
But sometimes they say, “Well, I don’t really know how this works, and I’m going to find someone who knows how it works, but I’m going to be the business owner.” It’s just…it’s a structural problem.
You need to understand your business inside out. You need to be able to do all the things it needs. You’re not going to do them forever – you’ve got to outsource, you’ve got to find staff, etcetera – but you’ve got to be able to jump in and be like, “I understand that job, this is how it’s going to work.” Especially for small businesses.
And that’s one of the big differences to corporate. In corporate, everyone is a cog in the wheel. You understand your world and how it fits in with everyone else, but that’s all you need to understand. Whereas when it’s your own business, you need to understand the whole thing, right? Inside out.
Priscilla Msimanga: Yeah, so I do have a site manager. Because part of my role is to scan the environment around me. To check the prices in other areas, to understand if I stand in the middle of a Makro, or any other warehouse, and go like, “What would I buy if I were my customer?”
And I would then do that buying and saying, “It’s Christmas, we have extra money from the bonuses. What would I want?” Instead of having Cadbury, I want to indulge and buy a Ferrero Rocher.” So, why not get Ferrero Rochers and test the market?
So, I do have someone that I now feel comfortable to leave when I’m not around. But it will be for a couple of hours, of course. He would be an operational person.
The other thing is the growth, right? So, the innovative part. I’m a Select store. Select store means I don’t have that big bakery. So, I don’t have hot food, but can I stay without hot food? Hell no. So, I needed to find a way to be creative around it.
If I can’t make my place bigger, I need to make a plan to sell hot food, and I did. I got the food truck. It was the first [laughing]. I have a little food truck…
The Finance Ghost: I love that! So cool [laughing]. That’s great!
Priscilla Msimanga: …and I’m selling hot food, and I’m selling what I think people would like for the market that I’m in. So, I have hot food now. When I got there, there was no gas. I’m like, “I have a gas stove, we have an electricity problem, so why not sell gas?”
Started the process of being compliant with the gas, because I didn’t have a licence, and I now sell gas. So, it’s those kinds of ideas. This is how you see it. When you scan your environment and say, “What do we need? Do we need gas? Yes, we need gas.”
The people who are selling gas close at 6pm or 8pm. I’m 24 hours. So, that market after 24 hours, that is why we are a convenience store. Your gas finishes at 8pm, you’re having a braai, so you come to me and buy the gas. So, yeah, that’s pretty much how it works.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s crazy interesting. The food truck is fascinating. Tell me about the menu. What can someone get when they’re hungry, there at Shell Boksburg Motors?
Priscilla Msimanga: We get from sandwiches to pap and steak, because my market is really people who are working in the area. I’m in between the car dealerships. Most of the people on lunch don’t have anything to eat. So, we have the best mogodu as well.
We have fancy foods like chicken and chips. We sell kota – I don’t know if you know what kota is? [laughing] It’s a little bunny chow.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah!
Priscilla Msimanga: So, we sell those and vetkoeks in the morning, to accommodate that market. We also have samosas. We are purely non-pork. If you eat pork, don’t come to us. Because my market is either people who are halal or people who are not eating pork.
We all need to test the market, I started selling pork, and no one bought. And I’m like, “Okay, so what is wrong?” Because I love pork! So, we then saw that it’s either a religious thing. So, then we stopped selling it, and we’re now getting traction. People are buying more.
We sell toasted sarmies, we have burgers and all that. So, yeah. But most of the high sellers are actually food – pap, rice and stew and all that. Mogodu is the high seller on Monday, because people have babbalas, so they want something like mogodu to take away the babbalas [laughing].
The Finance Ghost: Sort them out [laughing]. Ah, that’s great. I have small children, so now I just have ‘Are you achin’ for some bacon?’ in my head, courtesy of The Lion King. A gift that I’ve passed on to them.
But there’s a great story in there. Just because you are achin’ for the bacon doesn’t mean that your customers are. So, you’ve got to then adapt to the people who are actually coming to your store. If pork is not going to cut it, you take it out. You respond to what people want.
It does not help to sell premium croissants to a market that is actually looking for a babbalas cure on a Monday morning and cheap sources of maximum protein and carbs to keep them full. That’s the reality. So, that’s the cool thing with being in retail. It’s also the challenge with being in retail.
Let’s talk a little bit then – because I’ve always wondered about these forecourts. My understanding is that, when you sell a litre of fuel, basically, the amount of money you make per litre is just about fixed. It’s a very highly regulated space around pricing, etcetera.
So, you’ve actually really only got two ways of making more money, because you can’t just put the price of fuel up. You either have to sell more fuel, you’ve got to get more people coming, or you’ve got to get people to get out of their cars and walk into your shop, right?
I mean, that’s what this business comes down to. And I guess at the end of the day, getting people out of their cars is going to be stuff like service, how long it takes to get fuel. But then the shop, again, you need to give people a reason to come there. Like your food truck, etcetera, etcetera. It’s very clever.
So, is that essentially how the business works? Selling fuel is really only one part of it, and the shop is absolutely key to the economics of this thing?
Priscilla Msimanga: The fuel, as in 93 and 95, that’s the case. It’s highly regulated. You’ve got to sell it at the amount that the DMRE sets. Even with diesel. But there is a little bit of space to play around with diesel, because it’s not as regulated as the fuel.
So, you can go down or up, depending on your market. Because diesel is mostly for trucks, and you want to attract the trucks. So, you’ve got to be smart around how you price your diesel so that you still have the market come to you.
And for me, who has two competitors that are literally 900 metres away, I have to be very cognisant of how I price my diesel. It is also very regulated. They tell you how much you can go up by, but then the way that you would want to go down is dependent on you.
So, yes, it is regulated, and there is a margin that we do. There is a RAS (Regulatory Accounting System) model, and I don’t want to get into the technicalities (that I had to learn, by the way, when I got into this) on how much money or how much margin you make.
Then the shop, yeah. Ideally, we want to be able to pump more on the forecourt and also get people out of their cars to the truck or to the shop. Because I still sell pies, so if you don’t want my truck food, we still sell pies and other snacks and carbonated drinks and cigarettes.
So, basically, we are happy to give you the best service, and also, we are happy for you to say to my forecourt attendant, “Hey, can you get me a packet of ciggies when I pay?” And they can do that.
So, we have extended a value for your money kind of service, where you know that it’s a one-stop shop, kind of – not yet a one-stop shop, it will be one day – but you can get your cigarettes and pay at the same time, and this guy will do it for you in the quickest way possible.
Yeah, we do measure. I’m an efficiency kind of person at heart, so I do literally stand outside and see how long people wait, and if there’s no one servicing them, I’m like, “What is going on?” to the person in charge, or I will personally go and assist.
So, you want to get more people in the shop because the shop margins are a little bit different. Because we are a convenience store. We are not priced like Pick n Pay, because of the timing. We are 24 hours. You’ve got to pay two different shifts, as opposed to just one shift for the day.
So, yeah, what we used to do on Saturdays, we used to have boerewors rolls. That is the one that’s built into the truck. Boerewors roll – it smells nice, you see it with my little gas, so you get out of your car and park and buy the boerewors roll. So, those are the kinds of little things that we do.
Sometimes we then partner with some of our suppliers and get little ice creams and give them out on the forecourt so that people come back again.
But the service component is the most important. I want people that I would have tested. These people are passionate, they are proud, and they love serving people. And they like talking to people. People just want to be spoken to. It’s like a salon. When I go to do my hair, the last thing I do is my hair. It’s actually the conversation around what is happening around us.
So, I’ve had quite a few comments, people saying, “Thank you, just for talking to me.” And they are sure to come back. So, those are the kinds of things that my team and I are doing so that people would want to come back to us, as opposed to the other petrol stations.
The Finance Ghost: Boeries and ice creams. You’re definitely speaking my language. That sounds excellent. And the human touch, as you say. Just being friendly. I mean, it’s the basics, but this is what we crave.
We crave human connection – and ice cream, and boeries. And if you can get all three of those right, then you are golden. That’s how it works.
So, Priscilla, without giving away specifics (obviously this is private), but I’m just curious. What has the journey, high-level, been like for you, going from essentially a corporate salary in a big job into your own business? You had to borrow money for it. Would you say it’s been tough? Would you say it’s been in line with expectations? Again, no specifics here. Just high-level, for people thinking of doing this, what’s been your experience of it?
Priscilla Msimanga: So, if you are going into this business, you’ve got to be able to stop living the posh life. There’s no longer any going out and eating out. That has stopped, because your salary is the challenge for you.
You’re paying yourself little. Sometimes you don’t pay yourself at all, if it’s a bad month. So, you’ve got to be able to have a cushion on the side, or you’ve got to have some support, something. Or you have to downscale quite a bit, which I have done.
But for me, it’s a downscaling that you know, in five years, it will pay you back. You know what I mean? It’s just a temporary sort of inconvenience, but you have to be able to take it and be agile enough to adjust to your new reality now. I am not getting that salary that I was getting in corporate. I’m not going to get the 13th cheque. So, how do I balance my life to live the way that I’m living now?
If I were to give you an idea, my salary is not even half of what I used to get in corporate. But I love it. Because at the end of a year, when you look at your financials month-to-month, you’re like, “Okay, so it’s worth it.” At the end of a year, you will see the results, and you’re like, “In five years, I probably will pay myself a little bit better.”
But I think I would do it again. I don’t want to be promising people that you’ll get double your salary, because you won’t – you’ll bankrupt yourself. So, you’ve got to be smart around how you balance.
Because they do manage your expectations, the franchisors, to say, “You’re from corporate, you’re not going to get that salary. How do you balance your finances to still be able to maintain your life?”
Because you’ve got debts and whatever, right? So, you’ve got to package your life in such a way that you’re not going to struggle, but at the same time, you don’t pay yourself so much that you won’t even make a profit.
The Finance Ghost: Thank you. I think that’s a very honest and sobering viewpoint, and that’s why I asked the question. Because I always think people must just go into this with their eyes open.
It’s basically… There’s this quote that goes roughly along the lines of, “Living the life that others won’t, so that you can live the life that they can’t in years to come.” Take the hard stuff now, and it will pay off later.
I’ve always loved cars, and so I had some interesting stuff – nothing crazy at all, I was always careful, but I had some fun stuff. And then, when I finally decided, “It’s time to start getting out of corporate now. This is the opportunity in front of me, let’s do it.” I remember I downscaled all the way down to this leaking Fiat.
Basically, if it had rained, it would leak straight through the door, basically onto me. I was this ex-investment banker and CA in this leaking Fiat, but that’s what you’ve got to do. You’ve got to humble yourself down to that level. Because that tiny little overhead every month is going to make the difference if something goes wrong in the business, while your friend is paying off R15,000 a month on some fancy German car.
And that’s why entrepreneurs actually end up being much better at managing their money, because they don’t take on unnecessary overheads. They go into a cash mindset of, “Okay. Did I already make this money? All right, I’ll spend some of it. I’ll leave behind a buffer, spend some of it, but I had to make it already.”
They don’t go and throw debt at their personal lives. Whereas when you’re a salaried employee, you assume that money’s always going to be there, and then you’re very happy to layer on these big overheads.
And it’s dangerous, because corporates do retrench people. Things don’t always go to plan. And then you’re in serious trouble, because now you don’t have a plan B.
So, as much as it’s hard to go and do what you’ve done, you’re also in control of your own destiny, right? And that’s a nice way to wake up in the morning.
Priscilla Msimanga: Yes, I’ve been retrenched three times in my life.
The Finance Ghost: Wow! Yeah, you know that gig well.
Priscilla Msimanga: So, I know how that feels. I’m driving a 12-year-old car. Everyone asks me, “You’re still driving this thing?” I’m like, “Yes. Until it stops working, I will still drive it.” I’m not going to buy anything that will get me into a position where I struggle right now. If it moves, it moves. I get there!
The Finance Ghost: 100%. I love that. So, last question on this podcast. It’s been such a lovely look at just life leaving corporate. What advice would you give to someone who is maybe thinking about doing this in 2026 or beyond?
Or to someone who’s now maybe at that point, as we spoke about, where you kind of say, “Okay, two to three years from now.” That’s actually the safer runway. If you’re sitting here listening to this and you’re going, “Oh, 2026 is my year to leave corporate,” be careful. It takes longer than that.
So, what advice would you give to someone who’s in that situation? They’re in their corporate job, they’re dreaming of leaving to go and do this thing – what would your one piece of advice be?
Priscilla Msimanga: Stop being fearful. Just jump into it, and start planning today. Because, as you said, the day that you decide, it takes at least two years. So, it’s just a change of mindset. “I’m going to stop being afraid. I’m going to do this.” And now, you start defining the how. You start saving money. You start looking into where you want to go.
It was a collision with petroleum, but I loved it. I think it was meant to happen. I do think that our journeys are supposed to be ‘somewhere’, and you will be ‘somewhere’. But it collided with me, and I love it.
Sometimes people are born with a passion that they are underestimating, and then they die without actually pursuing it. So one day, in 2026, make a decision: “I’m an artistic person, I need to get in to open my art shop.” Start working towards that art shop!
There are a lot of banks that are actually – with a good business case, like Capitec – able to fund you if they see the logic. If they see that you have managed your money properly, and you have a contribution, they’ll be able to help.
I think a lot of people have this comment that, “I don’t have money, it’s a limitation.” Only because you are fearful. So, if you stop being fearful, then you look at possibilities. You can see that it is possible if you really, really want to do it. And that is where I was.
I would say, “Stop being fearful. Pursue what you love, and go for it.” Even if it doesn’t yield the result in two days. Because I was an impatient person. I think the one thing that this business has taught me is to be patient.
The waiting game. In four years, three years, whatever, it will be a different thing. Just hold on. And when they listen to this kind of podcast, they’ll be able to see that it can be done. If a dusty kid from Sebokeng can do this, anyone can, really.
Just go above the fear. And leave corporate. And I know I used to be one of the execs, and I’m like, “Oh, yeah, it’s prestigious,” but for whom? For me, now, I’m prestigious to me. I’m the one who makes decisions, and that’s different.
So, when you’re in corporate, you’re working for someone else who had the dream to do what they are doing, and they hire you to do it for them. So, in my opinion, I’m better off doing my dream than working for someone else’s dream. So, dream, go for your dream, and stop being fearful.
The Finance Ghost: I love that. Loads of great advice in there. It’s funny, so my thing is being able to fetch my kids from school without having to ask someone. That’s the biggest win for me. It’s not even about the money or whatever. It’s literally just the freedom.
The richest person you know is the person who has the most control over their time. That is my honest opinion on the world, really.
Priscilla, have you read The Alchemist before? Because if you haven’t, you should.
Priscilla Msimanga: Yes, I have read The Alchemist, funnily enough. It was like 14 years ago! [laughing] I still have it. I go back to it. So, yes, I have.
The Finance Ghost: You struck me as someone who should read it. And for anyone listening to this, there really are two types of people who read The Alchemist. There are those who read it and go, “I don’t understand the hype, what is this?” Then it just wasn’t for you, that’s fine. And then, if it is for you, it will really be for you.
So, I was one of those people where it was really for me. I took a lot from The Alchemist. I remember reading it on a flight between Joburg and Cape Town – a late-night, very tired, hardcore-financial-services-career flight, and I read The Alchemist.
And I remember” I basically read it, closed it, and that was the start. It ended up being much more than two to three years, but that was the start of me going, “Okay, I need to do something else long term.” So, yeah, it’s a lovely thing.
Priscilla Msimanga: There are just those books that never leave my shelf, and The Alchemist is one of them. Rich Dad Poor Dad is one of them. It’s just those that always remind me, “You know what? These people could do it. I can too.”
And there are people that have poured into me as well that would say, “You can do this,” and I’m like, “Okay, okay.” And so, yeah. But The Alchemist was one of them.
The Finance Ghost: It’s fantastic. So, there’s a dog in the background there that is calling you to go and run your business, so I’m going to let you go, Priscilla.
Priscilla Msimanga: [laughing]
The Finance Ghost: Thank you so much. We were done anyway, but it has been lovely. Thank you so much. We’ll take the dog’s hint here.
And just, good luck. Well done on everything you’re doing. It’s a very inspiring story, and I really wish you the best with it.
The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting is here and markets are paying attention. As leaders gather in Davos, the conversations will likely shape risk premiums, capital allocation and investor confidence in the months ahead. In episode one of our special Davos Debrief podcast series, host Jeremy Maggs is joined by Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist at Investec, to cut through the noise and focus on what really matters for investors.
Please scroll down if you would prefer to read the transcript.
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
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NOW Ep 117: WEF 2026 Preview
[00:00:00] Jeremy Maggs: It is World Economic Forum Week. Markets are open, capital is moving, and in Davos, the conversation this week will help shape where risk is priced and where opportunity emerges. This is No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec’s fortnightly podcast on the forces shaping business, markets and economies. Hello, I’m Jeremy Maggs, and this week it’s a special Davos debrief series.
I’m going to bring you insights from Investec leaders attending the 56th annual meeting in Switzerland. Now, today marks the start of WEF 2026, convening global leaders under the theme, “A Spirit of Dialogue”. But the backdrop is anything but calm. The Global Risks Report 2026 warns that geo-economic confrontation has become one of the most pressing near term threats to global stability.
At the same time, the Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 tells us that cooperation across geopolitics, technology, and trade is weakening precisely at a time when systemic risks are rising. So as Davos gets underway, what signals should markets be watching and which conversations rarely matter? To help us unpack the risks, the opportunities, and what this week could mean for markets and the global economy, I’m joined by Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist at Investec. Chris, a warm welcome to No Ordinary Wednesday.
So let’s start with this then. The Global Risks Report 2026 ranks geo-economic confrontation as the top risk over the next two years. That’s ahead of even state-based armed conflict. Chris, how should investors then interpret that finding, particularly in relation to trade tensions, tariff tensions, or supply chain nationalisation?
[00:01:49] Chris Holdsworth: I think the essence of that report is that we’re seeing a shift away from cooperation to competition amongst major economies and tariffs are an example of that. And one of the key questions that we need to answer this week, and we hope to get some guidance, is around how persistent that is likely to be.
Is it the next two years, three years, five years? Is it a long term trend or is this something that is just cyclical for the short term? And if so, what are the other consequences that are likely to come about in addition to tariffs that we need to be concerned about? And I think we will get some hints in that regard and certainly something that we’ll provide an update on throughout the week as we get information, but for us, that’s pretty close to the top of the list of things that we are looking out for.
[00:02:28] Jeremy Maggs: So let me ask you a follow up to that. Does this shift in risk weighting from traditional geopolitical fears to geo-economic friction maybe change how we think about capital allocation and diversification?
[00:02:42] Chris Holdsworth: Yes, it’s a great question. I think the primary concern is around the extent to which the dollar continues to be a safe haven for international investors. There’s a shortage of safe haven assets across the globe, and if the dollar is not going to be the sort of safe haven that it was before, it means that we need to find other safe havens and we will be looking out for any information with regards to that potential issue.
[00:03:03] Jeremy Maggs: And Chris, are markets pricing this opportunity appropriately do you think? Or are investors underestimating the economic side of global risk?
[00:03:11] Chris Holdsworth: You know, it’s hard to say that markets are pricing in a lot of risk when the US stock market’s on a forward P/E of 23, which is pretty close to the top end of the range of what we’ve seen over the past 30 years. It does seem that the market’s pretty relaxed and we can understand why US GDP growth has been pretty good and earnings growth has been pretty good as well.
But there is a cloudy outlook, and I would suggest that there’s not a huge amount of risk currently priced in to US equities in particular. Elsewhere it’s a bit of a different story, but certainly in the US it seems like a lot of these risks are being put on the back burner for now.
[00:03:43] Jeremy Maggs: Alright, let me move on to this.
The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 suggests cooperation is weakening even as risks intensify. So Chris Holdsworth, in your view then, are we in a world that is genuinely de-globalising or is the narrative more about reorganisation, maybe new partnerships, new corridors of capital and trade?
[00:04:07] Chris Holdsworth: Depending on the data sources, you look at. Trade over the past couple of years has been flat to up a little bit, but in effect, no sign of deglobalisation in the trade data just yet. Clearly there are threats to that. In summary, I think we are looking at an environment where the world is just a lot more complicated.
We can’t simply rely on past economic relationships between countries to continue going forward. And that just makes asset allocation a lot more complicated than it has been before. And in general, it makes investing a lot more difficult than it has been before. And again, we are going to be looking out for any information in that regard.
So we’ve put together a list of a couple of things and I’m sure we’ll talk about that shortly, and this will feature on that list too.
[00:04:47] Jeremy Maggs: So what then are the investment opportunities and risks in a more multipolar or contested economic order?
[00:04:55] Chris Holdsworth: Well, the first question is if the dollar’s not going be the safe haven that it was before, is there a substitute?
Is there something else that can offer the sort of protection for portfolios that dollar investments used to? And maybe it will be the dollar again in a couple of years, but maybe we need to try for something else. And I think that goes somewhere in expanding the recent, very strong performance in gold.
And there is a shortage of safe haven assets. And this is top of the list for investors across the globe, and again, top of the list for us this week in Davos.
[00:05:24] Jeremy Maggs: Now Chris, one of the central pillars of Davos 2026 is, as I understand it, unlocking new sources of growth, all well and good. Where do you see growth potential right now, both in developed economies and in emerging markets like those in Africa?
[00:05:41] Chris Holdsworth: Well, one underreported new development we think is that GDP growth in Africa this year is likely to outpace Asian GDP growth which doesn’t often happen. If you look over the last 30 years, it’s occurred on a handful of occasions. Now what’s more is that the IMF expects going forward, African GDP growth will be above Asian GDP growth for each of the next five years.
So we are on the cusp of a regime change and it means that the longstanding promise of faster African growth may well be delivered. And so if we are looking for new sources of growth, I think we should look probably not much further than the African continent.
[00:06:16] Jeremy Maggs: So are certain sectors like technology, energy transition, or even digital infrastructure maybe better positioned to capture this growth?
[00:06:26] Chris Holdsworth: Well, one of the problems is that there are very few ways to neatly access faster GDP growth in financial markets. So if you look for example, at listed entities in developed markets, typically Africa is a very small portion of their revenue. Even in South Africa, there’s only a handful of companies that are direct plays on Africa x SA growth and that makes it quite difficult. So we first need to see increased access for investors to the African continent, and that’s going to take a bit of time. That would be the initial stage of what could be a very long running theme, and it’s something that could be quite exciting and we hope to start to see some developments in that regard over the near term.
[00:07:03] Jeremy Maggs: Now, Chris, another key theme this week is deploying innovation responsibly. Now in a world where technological disruption can rapidly reshape industries and where risks from ungoverned tech rise over longer horizons, Chris, how should investors balance their innovation upside on the one hand with systemic risk exposure?
[00:07:25] Chris Holdsworth: That’s a very difficult question. I know there are a couple of talks this week on that, and so hopefully we’ll get some insights this week. I mean, one of the thoughts is that the development of AI in effect is going reduce barriers to entry, reduce moats, which means that higher quality companies, which have typically enjoyed barriers to entry and higher moats would be derated. And perhaps we’ve seen a bit of that over the past six months or so.
We are not going to get an answer to that question at the end of this week, I don’t think. Not a full answer, and we probably won’t get an answer to this question for the next couple of years, but hopefully we get some insight with regards to the problem that you’ve raised.
And if so, we’ll certainly report back in the follow-up sessions.
[00:08:02] Jeremy Maggs: Now Chris, the World Economic Forum Agenda, also emphasising building prosperity within so-called planetary boundaries. So for investors, looking beyond short-term returns, how do you think about resilience, whether for portfolios, for businesses or economies in the face of the risks highlighted in those two reports that we’ve mentioned?
[00:08:25] Chris Holdsworth: You know, this is a longstanding theme, the need to invest sustainably and responsibly. The theme is not particularly popular at the moment. It’s certainly less popular than it was a couple of years ago, but we do think that it’s going to come back into fashion over the next couple of years. And just like the AI theme, which is likely to play out over the next decade or so, we think that this theme is likely to play out over the next few years.
[00:08:47] Jeremy Maggs: Now as the week begins, what are the three signals or outcomes that you’ll be watching closely over the next couple of days that could shift market sentiment or reshape investment assumptions?
[00:09:00] Chris Holdsworth: Well, as a starting point, if you look back over time, there have been a number of World Economic Forums where there’s been market-moving commentary, particularly from central bankers with regards to the outlook for monetary policy. This time around the focus is more likely to be on geopolitics, but nonetheless, this is something that’s going to be pretty closely watched by investors across the globe, and everyone’s going to have their list of things that they’re looking out for.
In terms of our list, top of the list is to the point we mentioned earlier about the safe haven status of the dollar, and any information in that regard.
The second is around resource nationalism. This relatively new development that’s come about with regards to rare earths, but it also applies to other resources more broadly, and we’re looking out for any information in that regard.
And the third is questions around Central Bank independence, particularly in the US. Now that’s just the top of our list.
We’ve got to be open to the idea that there may well be other commentary coming through, that’s out of left field that are market-moving as well. So we might not get answers to our top three. Hopefully we do, but I think we will get some information out there, even if it’s not something that we are expecting at this point.
[00:10:03] Jeremy Maggs: Alright, I want to bring South Africa into the picture now. Team South Africa is in Davos, positioning this country as reforming, stabilising, ready for partnership. From an investment perspective, how material are these signals in a world, Chris, where capital has become, I think, far more risk selective?
[00:10:23] Chris Holdsworth: That’s absolutely critical there. There’s still a pretty widespread scepticism about the recovery story in SA, and it’s going to take more delivery to change views and talking to people is one thing, and talking about commitments is one thing, but at this point we need to see signs of delivery and you need to evidence that delivery and you need to make it public.
And this is a platform to do that.
[00:10:43] Jeremy Maggs: Now Chris, a recurring theme in the team South African narrative is that the country has moved from policy intent to implementation, particularly through Operation Vulindlela, energy reform and logistics modernisation. As a strategist, how do you then distinguish between reform rhetoric and reforms that can actually unlock capital?
[00:11:05] Chris Holdsworth: Now this is pretty important for us. A couple of years ago, we created our own SOE index to measure the performance of SOEs in South Africa. And the reason we did that is the realisation that SOEs at that point were a binding constraint on GDP growth in South Africa. And if you look at that index, it bottomed around 2023.
And since then there’s been a sizable recovery, and we can see that through electricity production as an example. We can also see it through the performance of container handling at the ports. So there’s signs that things are turning around. And what that means is SOEs are less of a binding constraint on growth, and that allows GDP growth to drift upwards.
We may even see it at 2% this year. And the more we see signs of delivery in that regard, the more we see signs of structural form actually leading to better results, the more likely we are to see a reduction in the risk premium in South Africa.
[00:11:55] Jeremy Maggs: Alright, Chris, a final question for you then, as investors wake up to this first day of Davos 2026, looking at a world, as we’ve discussed of elevated global risk, weaker cooperation, but also new growth corridors, is there one thing they should be watching this week when it comes to South Africa’s positioning in global portfolios?
[00:12:17] Chris Holdsworth: I think it’s the extent to which South Africa is relevant and desirable for foreign investors. And that’ll take a combination of things. It’ll take a combination of policy certainty, reform and signs of green shoots to convince foreigners to bother to look at SA. And there might still be some questions around foreign policy and the extent to which that affects the outlook for growth in SA, but I think the primary point is going to be trying to address investors scepticism about the recovery story in SA.
[00:12:45] Jeremy Maggs: And that’s where we are going to leave it. Chris Holdsworth, thank you for that big picture outlook and for helping us prepare for what promises to be a critical Davos week.
In episode two that drops on Wednesday the 21st of January, we’re going to explore technology, artificial intelligence, and the future of work with Investec’s Global Head of Digital and technology, Lyndon Subroyen.
Until then, thank you for listening.
Now remember to follow Investec Focus Radio SA wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like the channel, please take a moment to rate it and share it as this will help us reach more listeners. Until next time, goodbye from me, Jeremy Magsg and the entire Focus Radio team.
[00:13:29] Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the contributors at the time of publication and do not necessarily represent the views of the firm and should not be taken as advice or recommendations. Investec Limited and subsidiaries authorised financial service providers, registered credit providers, and long-term insurer.
This comes after the share price lost roughly half its value in the past year
The Aveng share price has been a rather sad and sorry tale. They’ve been struggling with the Australian business McConnell Dowell (haven’t we heard that story many times before on the JSE?) and they went through a strategic process of figuring out how to separate it out from the group. After investors hoped for news of a value unlock, what they got instead was an update in December that Aveng would be hanging onto McConnell Dowell.
There’s also a potential sale of the South African business (Moolmans) on the cards. They recently appointed a new managing director in that business, which is an unusual step when you’re trying to sell something.
I don’t know what else has happened in the background, but it seems as though there’s unhappiness and disagreement in the system as the CEO has decided to part ways with the company. Scott Cummins will step down with effect from 30 January 2026 – that’s just one step short of an immediate change.
David Simpson will be appointed as the interim group CEO. Although the announcement gives lots of vague commentary about his previous roles, it neglects to indicate which companies he has led before.
The company has also begun the search for a permanent CEO. Interim appointments often become permanent after due process has been followed, but not always.
Results for the six months to December are expected around 24th February. That’s going to be rather interesting.
The share price fell 6% on the day of the announcement.
Ninety One’s share price is up by well over 50% in the past year. It closed 7% higher on Friday based on the assets under management (AUM) update. For a company like this, AUM is the lifeblood of revenue, as it is the basis upon which fees are earned. When AUM is heading in the right direction, the share price tends to do the same.
The AUM figure at 31 December 2025 of £159.8 billion is a meaty 22.7% higher than it was at 31 December 2024. The amplified impact on the share price is thanks to better sentiment towards the business and the positive impact on margins of achieving growth like this.
Recent momentum is also encouraging, as AUM is 5% higher than it was at the end of September 2025.
Shareholders will want to see more of this as Ninety One closes out their financial year in the next quarter.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
Several executives at Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC) received share awards and took different courses of action. Encouragingly, it looks like the CEO hasn’t even sold the taxable portion, choosing instead to keep the full R3.3 million in shares. Two other directors sold only the taxable portion (the usual approach). Also, there were two senior execs who sold previously vested shares worth a total of roughly R10 million.
A senior exec at Investec (JSE: INL | JSE: INP) sold shares worth around R7.7 million.
Remgro (JSE: REM) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a potential restructuring of the Mediclinic investment. You may recall that the intention here is for Remgro to take full ownership of Mediclinic Southern Africa, while the Swiss partners would then take full ownership of the Swiss business. Negotiations are still underway. It’s lovely to see an intention to increase exposure to South Africa rather than a desire to deploy more capital offshore!
After a long, painful and rather worrying process to get the deal done, Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) must be thrilled to announce that the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining has now closed. This means they have 100% ownership of the Kabwe Zinc Mine. This is of course only the beginning – like all junior mining projects, it will be a capital hungry process.
Both are footnotes in a much older human habit: wanting something most when we’re told it’s off-limits.
Humans are curious creatures. Tell us something is forbidden and suddenly it’s the only thing we want to see. Hide information and we’ll dig for it. Try to erase something and we’ll screenshot it, repost it, remix it, and turn it into a meme before the PR company has finished drafting the apology statement.
Psychologists have a term for this tendency. The internet does too. And Barbra Streisand, somewhat unwillingly, gave it a name and a face.
A photo nobody cared about (until everybody did)
The year was 2003, and photographer Kenneth Adelman was flying over the Californian coastline in a helicopter. His goal wasn’t voyeurism. Adelman was working on the California Coastal Records Project, a nonprofit initiative designed to document coastal erosion. The series of photographs that he was taking were publicly available, free for non-commercial use, and frequently accessed by researchers and government bodies.
Among the more than 12,000 images that Adelman uploaded was one that happened to include Barbra Streisand’s Malibu mansion. At the time, almost no one noticed. But somehow, Streisand got wind of this and decided to sue.
Citing privacy concerns and legitimate fears around harassment and stalking, she filed a $50 million lawsuit against Adelman, arguing that the photograph exposed details of her residence and therefore endangered her safety. From her perspective, the move made sense. Remove the image, reduce the risk, regain control. It’s worth noting that at the time of the lawsuit the image in question had been downloaded only six times, and two of those downloads were by Streisand’s own legal team.
Streisand and her lawyers hoped that the photograph would quietly disappear and the world would be none the wiser. Instead, the lawsuit did something remarkable: it turned a mostly ignored aerial photograph into one of the most famous celebrity property images on the internet.
Within a month of the filing, the photo had been viewed more than 400,000 times. News outlets republished it. Blogs dissected it. People who had never heard a single Barbra Streisand song suddenly knew where she lived and what her house looked like from above. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Streisand also lost the case and was ordered to pay Adelman’s legal fees. The photo remains online to this day.
Years later, in her 2023 autobiography My Name Is Barbra, Streisand reflected on the episode with candour. Her issue, she explained, was never the photo itself – it was the attachment of her name to it. She believed she was standing up for a principle. In retrospect, she admitted, it was a mistake.
Why suppression so often backfires
The phenomenon now commonly known as the Streisand effect describes what happens when attempts to suppress, censor, or remove information end up amplifying it instead. In other words, the harder someone tries to make something disappear, the more attention it attracts.
This isn’t just an internet quirk. It’s a deeply human one. Attempts to control information have existed for as long as information itself. Books have been banned, artworks destroyed, speeches silenced. What’s changed since the advent of the internet is the speed and scale with which information can be accessed and shared. Online suppression doesn’t just fail quietly – it fails spectacularly.
Cease-and-desist letters are a common starting point. A polite but firm “please remove this content” lands in someone’s inbox. Sometimes it works. But often, especially when the request feels heavy-handed or unjustified, the result is the opposite. The letter gets shared, screenshots circulate, and in no time at all, the story becomes news.
Seeking an injunction to remove content can trigger the same effect. The legal action itself becomes a story, and the content you hoped to bury gets a second, louder life in headlines, think pieces, and social feeds.
When banning makes things more popular
One of the clearest demonstrations of the Streisand effect comes from an unlikely place: libraries. A study examining banned books in the United States found that titles on the banned list saw their circulation increased by an average of 12% compared to similar, non-banned books. It makes sense if you think about it – the act of banning signals scandal. If this book was dangerous, controversial, or forbidden, then it must be worth reading. It turns out the best thing an author can do to sell books in the US is to write something so controversial that it ends up on the banned list, but not so controversial that it alienates readers completely!
It’s not just the contents of forbidden books that get us salivating – we even go crazy for illegal numbers. This is what happened in 2007, when companies using Advanced Access Content System (AACS) encryption attempted to suppress a 128-bit numerical key that could be used to decrypt HD DVDs.
Not exactly a salacious or particularly interesting piece of information on its own, is it? The companies issued cease-and-desist letters demanding the key be removed from high-profile sites like Digg. What followed was internet folklore: the number spread everywhere. It appeared in forum signatures, chat rooms, blog posts, and comment sections. It was printed on T-shirts, tattooed onto bodies, and turned into songs on YouTube.
By the afternoon of Tuesday 1 May 2007, the number was still relatively contained. A Google search for the encryption key returned just over 9,000 results. By the following morning, that figure had exploded to nearly 300,000. By Friday of the same week, the BBC reported that almost 700,000 webpages were hosting the key. This was despite – or rather, because of – the fact that two weeks earlier the AACS Licensing Authority had sent Google a DMCA notice demanding that the search engine stop returning results for it.
A few years later, the same dynamic played out on a much larger, messier stage. In 2012, a UK high court ordered five major internet service providers to block access to The Pirate Bay, the Swedish file-sharing site that had long irritated copyright holders and governments alike. The ruling was meant to curb piracy by making the site harder to reach, effectively cutting it off at the source. Instead, it functioned as a global publicity campaign.
News outlets around the world reported on the ban, often explaining in detail what The Pirate Bay was and why authorities were so eager to shut it down. Curious users who had no idea that it was possible to (illegally) download films off the internet went looking for the site. Seasoned users shared workarounds, mirror links, and VPN tutorials with missionary zeal. Within days, traffic to the site had surged, increasing by more than 12 million visits.
Clearly, blocking access didn’t eliminate demand. In fact, we could argue that getting sued was the best marketing result that The Pirate Bay team ever achieved. The attempt to close the door simply taught millions of people where the door was and how to slip through it.
The people will not be denied access
The Streisand effect isn’t really about celebrities, pirates, or encryption keys. It’s about control, and our instinctive resistance to losing it. The moment someone tries to decide what we’re allowed to see, know, or talk about, curiosity turns into defiance. Information becomes more than data; it becomes a symbol. And accessing it feels like reclaiming agency.
In a reality where information moves faster than authority ever can, silence is no longer enforced – it’s negotiated. And more often than not, the loudest thing you can do online is try to make something go away. Barbra Streisand didn’t invent human curiosity, and the Swedish founders of The Pirate Bay didn’t perfect it. They simply revealed an uncomfortable truth of the digital age: attention is stubborn, curiosity is contagious, and once the internet smells secrecy, it cannot look away.
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.
In July 2025, Hyprop announced the sale of a 50% undivided share in Hyde Park Corner, along with the option to dispose of the remaining 50%. The proposed purchaser was a wholly owned subsidiary of Millennium Equity Partners.
In my opinion at least, Hyde Park Corner is one of the more interesting and unusual retail spaces in Joburg. Genuinely iconic and with great positioning, the centre includes a solid mix of upmarket offerings. Perhaps I’m just biased because there’s an impressive bookstore. Either way, I think it’s a solid property to own that was made even better by the recent opening of a Checkers FreshX store.
That positive view on the centre is just as well, as the deal to sell the share in the property has fallen through due to lack of fulfilment of conditions precedent. The announcement doesn’t specify which conditions weren’t met. This means that Hyprop shareholders will continue to have exposure to this mall in the absence of any other offers coming through.
Currencies are having a huge effect on Richemont (JSE: CFR)
The dollar and yen are the worst offenders
Richemont released a sales update for the three months to December 2025, which is of course the all-important festive period. Sales were strong on a constant currency basis (up 11%), but this was diluted down to just 4% growth as reported in euros. Global geopolitical strain is having a serious effect on Richemont’s numbers.
Before we get to the currency effects, let’s deal with the momentum through the year. This quarter was slightly stronger than the nine-month results on a constant currency basis (11% Q3 vs. 10% YTD) and slightly lower as reported (4% Q3 vs. 5% YTD). This tells us that the the business itself is getting better, yet the geopolitical impacts are getting worse.
Breaking it down by region really tells the story. Asia Pacific remains the biggest region with sales of €1.87 billion, up 6% in constant currency but down 2% as reported. Within this region, it’s important to note that China, Hong Kong and Macau on a combined basis grew 2% in constant currencies. Seeing a positive growth trend in that part of the world is important to the investment case and a critical read-through for the entire luxury sector.
Next up is the Americas at €1.74 billion, up 14% in constant currency (a terrific result) but only up 6% as reported due to the weakened dollar. Europe is the third largest region at €1.55 billion, up 8% in constant currency and 6% as reported (part of the difference is the UK, which they say performed well).
Japan is much smaller (€632 million) and grew 17% in constant currency, or 7% as reported due to the pressure on the yen. Just to finish the regional summary, Middle East & Africa (€607 million) was up 20% in constant rates and 12% as reported.
The other popular way to slice and dice Richemont is by product segment. Jewellery Maisons (by far the largest at €4.8 billion) achieved sales growth of 14% in constant currency and 6% as reported. That’s a particularly impressive performance against a strong base. Specialist Watchmakers (€872 million) grew 7% in constant currency and 1% as reported. The Other bucket (a meaty €742 million that includes fashion and accessories) was flat in constant currency and down 5% as reported.
Finally, we can view the group through a distribution lens. Retail is the biggest (€4.6 billion) with a constant currency move of 12% and reported results up 5%. Wholesale and royalty income (€1.4 billion) grew 9% in constant currency and 3% as reported. Finally, online retail (€413 million) was up 5% in constant currency and down 1% as reported.
This deals with the sales story, but what about profits?
There’s a most unfortunate note in the announcement that I’ll repeat verbatim:
“Consistent investment to nurture Maisons’ growth prospects in a complex macroeconomic environment marked by weaker main trading currencies and rising material costs continuing to weigh on margins.”
Or, in simple terms, they have to keep spending money to stay competitive, but they are struggling to maintain margins. Combined with the currency concerns, this is why the share price fell over 4% on the day.
This is an interesting chart:
Nibbles:
If you’re keen to get up the curve on Southern Palladium’s (JSE: SDL) investment story, then a good way to do it would be to refer to the latest presentation delivered by the executive chairman at the Future Minerals Forum in Saudi Arabia. You’ll find it here.
The first Ghost Stories podcast in 2026 opens the door to global property investments with Satrix. In this lively and insightful discussion with Lauren Jacobs, Senior Portfolio Manager at Satrix, you’ll learn about how Satrix is broadening the range of property investment opportunities for investors.
Aside from a discussion on the various property strategies followed by investors (ranging from buy-to-let through to owning REITs and associated ETFs), this podcast gives you details on the existing suite of property ETFs and unit trusts offered by Satrix. This includes the Satrix Property ETF (JSE: STXPRO) that Ghost loves owning in his tax-free savings account.
And of course, there was much focus placed on the new ETF in the stable: the Satrix Global Property ETF (JSE: STXGLP). With rand-denominated exposure to offshore property, this ETF brings property asset classes that you won’t find anywhere else on the JSE (like senior housing and data centre funds).
Get ready to learn about how to broaden and diversify your equity exposure in property.
Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products
Full Transcript:
The Finance Ghost: Welcome to 2026. It’s a new year, and it’s another fantastic year of podcasts right here on Ghost Mail with your host, The Finance Ghost. I’m so looking forward to that, of course, and it’s another year with Satrix. I’m so happy to have you guys back.
I mean, this is year…I want to say three? It might even be four at this stage, I’m actually not sure. I think it’s three. It’s really been a fantastic journey with the Satrix team. Just understanding ETFs, but also getting to know the team and the nuts and bolts of how these things work, the investment ideas that come through.
And of course, to end off 2025, there was a wonderful discussion with René Basson, where we talked about the 25 years to get to this point. Highly recommend you go back and listen to that if you want to give yourself some context as to just how amazing this journey was, to get to these ETFs that we now just take for granted.
We just take for granted the fact that you can own the market with just a single investment every month, for example. It really is quite amazing, and it’s quite a journey.
Today, we will be talking about a new product that’s coming out from Satrix, so that’s going to be quite exciting because the team is always innovating, they’re always bringing new stuff to the fore.
To do that, we have Lauren Jacobs. She is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Satrix. She is also no stranger to the Ghost Stories podcast. Lauren, you’ve done a couple of these now – I think you’ve done two – so, welcome to the podcast. Happy New Year, and thanks for doing this with me.
Lauren Jacobs: And Happy New Year to you, Ghost. Thanks for having me again, and all the best for 2026. It’s been an interesting time up until 2025, but yeah, onwards and upwards for the new year.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. It’s going to be quite a year. It’s gotten off to quite a start from a geopolitical perspective, so it’s not going to be boring, I think. That much we know for sure.
But what we’re talking about today is not geopolitics. We are talking about property. And actually, what makes that so interesting is that property sits somewhere between your sort of traditional equity exposure and then your debt exposure. So, quite an interesting place in a portfolio.
But before we even get to that, I think property remains an asset class that people are just very drawn to. It’s a very contentious issue, the cost of property. Because, of course, it directly affects your cost of living.
I think the conventional wisdom, from our parents’ generation especially, is to own the house you live in and then, as soon as you can, go and buy an apartment and rent it out. The classic advice was, “Well, buy your first apartment and then, when you’re ready to move on, you can rent that one out. Then you buy the next place.”
This was kind of the dream that many of our parents put onto us – with the best intentions, I think. Unfortunately, that hasn’t necessarily worked out super well in South Africa, depending on where you bought. Just the reality, unfortunately.
So, I don’t do any of those things. I, at this stage, don’t own the house I live in. I certainly don’t have any investment properties. I prefer to have listed property stocks.
But before we dig into the ETF, I was curious where you fall on that spectrum, Lauren, in terms of your approach to property and how you think about it. Do you prefer the listed stuff or a bit of bricks and mortar and the admin that comes with it?
Lauren Jacobs: I’m in the bucket where I fall into all three – we own a home, we own a rental property, and we own property stocks. So, it’s a very interesting time just in terms of how things are shaping up around property (not only in South Africa, but also around the world).
But for us – for me – I think I’m more of a conservative investor. I like to know my house is going to be my house forever, but maybe it’s just because I’m a little bit older. I still subscribe to that kind of thought. And also, unintentionally, the investment property came up.
But again, like you said – the admin around it and the taxes. People don’t understand that when they go into buying a property – the transfer duty, then if it’s your own property, there might be a capital gains tax. And the constant cost of a property if something goes wrong (and there’s always something going wrong).
You need to make provision to have cash available for that. To fix whatever’s gone wrong, or for your levies and your taxes and so on. I think when you saw your parents, they had a property, and you just lived on the property. You didn’t know all of those costs that came with it.
So, that’s just something – if you are buying a bricks-and-mortar property or even an investment property – to keep in mind. Just around how many costs are included in the lifespan of that property.
And then again, in the olden days, your parents were like, “Oh, but I’m keeping it for you, and you’re going to get this when I die.” But then there’s also that estate duty tax at the end that you’re not aware of, so there’s a lot of hidden costs around that.
Yes, there is the security of knowing it’s mine, I can go home every day. But yeah, it’s just – there’s always that double-edged sword around having that, but also the implied cost of it. It’s an interesting ride, and that’s my view on it.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I like that. Thank you. So, I guess where I am on the spectrum is I would, at some point, probably have what I would call our ‘forever home’. But that’s more around stability for family and children and proximity to schools. Because the rental market can sometimes be very cruel around timing and what’s available at the time you need to move. It’s not a financial decision, definitely not.
And I quite enjoyed your comment around how you take for granted the costs your parents might have had. I’ve experienced that now. So, the place we’re in now has a swimming pool. It’s the first time I’ve been responsible for a swimming pool. Young kids love it, obviously, but I think back and I’m like, “Wow, my parents went through a lot to make this thing work.” It costs you money all the time.
I grew up in Joburg, where the weather’s good a lot, so we used it all the time. Down in Cape Town, it’s like every few days, depending on how windy your suburb is. But anyway, this is just adulting of course.
The one thing I personally won’t do is have an investment property, just because of the admin you talk about. Because it’s not passive income. People think it’s passive income. I’ll tell you what is passive income: owning a property ETF. Because out there are a whole bunch of professional people sending rental invoices, kicking people out who don’t pay, getting new tenants in, getting the leases done. That is passive income.
So, I’m a big fan of having property exposure in my equity portfolio primarily. It’s a very good inflation hedge. It also (I like to think) gives me a little bit of a hedge against residential property prices absolutely running away while I’m not actually a residential property owner. Because chances are very, very good that if residential property is cooking in South Africa, the best shopping centres, the best industrial properties, and maybe even offices are probably also actually doing kind of well.
So, there’s a pretty decent hedge there. At least, I like to think. Hopefully, that will work out for me. I guess time will tell.
And of course, you can have this property exposure in your tax-free savings account, which is fantastic. So, we’ll talk about that as well.
But maybe let’s talk about some of Satrix’s existing products in the space, and then we’ll get to the new stuff. And the property sector on the JSE really is vibrant. It’s super active. It’s actually one of the sectors where historically we’ve had the most listings as opposed to delistings. There’s tons of capital raising all the time, and it’s because institutional investors are big supporters of the property sector.
And so, billions of rands (literally billions) flow into these companies, and they can go and deploy it into properties. So, very, very interesting space. Of course, that means that there’s an index for it. Satrix tracks the index. So, maybe we could just start there.
You could give us a quick overview of some of Satrix’s existing property products that investors might already be familiar with. As I said, it’s something I already have in my tax-free savings account, so I get that beautiful REIT dividend without any tax whatsoever, which is fun.
So yeah, give us the lay of the land, literally, in terms of the current Satrix offering around property.
Lauren Jacobs: So, in the local property space, currently Satrix has two offerings – one on the ETF side and one in unit trust form.
On the ETF side, that property ETF tracks the S&P SA Property Capped Index. That’s a little bit different to the way the JSE does it. They’ve obviously got a broader composite that they choose the property stocks from – not maybe a JSE All Share, it’s kind of a different broad-market index that they start from.
So, what you’ll find is that there’ll be some stocks in there that are not maybe specifically in the SAPY (the SA Listed Property Index, the FTSE/JSE one) or the weightings will be different.
It’s also got a capping factor, so the stocks are capped at 10% at each quarterly index review, and so, although it will move in line with the property sector because of some of the weightings of the underlying constituents, you won’t get the same as you would in the SAPY.
And of course, in the SAPY, the number of constituents there is capped at 20. Only 20 constituents in the SAPY, and that one also does a quarterly review.
So, on the unit trust side, we’ve got the SAPY – where we’re tracking the SAPY in the unit trust – and then on the ETF side, we’re tracking the S&P SA Property Capped Index.
Again, we’ll move sort of in line with the property sector, but you will find the differences just in terms of the underlying constituents and how those constituents move. For example, in the ETF, we have Hammerson (JSE: HMN) at 3%, whereas it’s not in SAPY. So, there you’ll get a difference in returns, depending on what that constituent does.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that’s interesting, and that’s why the fact sheets are obviously so important. You actually need to go in and just see exactly what is being tracked. What’s actually in there, what you are getting. And go and check out those weightings as well, because that makes a big difference.
And of course, the other thing in the property sector, specifically in South Africa, is a lot of these funds have offshore exposure. So, it’s all good and well to say, “Well, I love the South African property story and I’m trying to maybe hedge against residential property going up, etcetera, etcetera.”
But if all of your money is sitting in a fund (and this is not something that would happen in an ETF), but if you go single stocks and you go and buy a fund that is focused on Poland, that’s not going to hedge you against South Africa in any way, shape or form. It’s just not going to.
So, that’s rather interesting and certainly something to take into account. And it’s the old story, right, Lauren? Go and read the fact sheet, go and understand what it is that you are actually buying, because that is the only way to do it when it comes to ETFs. Go and do the research. It’s the old cliche, right?
Lauren Jacobs: Correct. And again, ETFs (or at least, index-tracking ETFs) are quite transparent. All the information is there. The constituents are on the website every day.
So you almost don’t have an excuse to say, “Oh, I didn’t know that was what I was tracking.” All the information is there for investors to find.
The Finance Ghost: Stuff like the capping really does make a big difference. So, genuinely go and have a look. There’s always a sort of ‘Top 10 Constituents’ list that shows you a lot of information in these fact sheets.
Don’t think that just because you’re buying ETFs, you don’t have to do research. You do have to do research. It’s just different research to how you would do a single stock, for example, and it is also much easier. ETF research is much simpler than going and digging into all these companies, definitely.
So, having set the scene of the excellent current offering and a couple of the options there for different kinds of investors – in December, Satrix capped off the year by talking about a global property feeder ETF. Very interesting. That will be under the code STXGLP.
This now delivers international property opportunities to investors looking for further diversification. So again, if you’re trying to hedge residential property in Cape Town, this one is not going to do it. But it will bring some excellent other exposure into your portfolio – some offshore exposure property specifically, obviously.
But before we even get into the details of the actual fund, this word ‘feeder’ – can you tell us (because I know you’re super involved in the operational side of the ETFs, we’ve done a show on that before) what a feeder ETF is, for those who have seen this term before and always wondered what that is?
Lauren Jacobs: So, if we take a step back and just think about global indices, for example. Your MSCI World, your S&P 500 – there are hundreds (and then in the MSCI World, thousands) of stocks in those indices.
As a local index-tracking house, it isn’t viable for us to now go and buy every single stock in that index and hold it and rebalance it every quarter. The cost, first of all, will be high. And secondly, sometimes we can’t get all the markets, or there’s the currency efficiencies that we wouldn’t be able to get.
So what a feeder structure does is it says instead of us going to hold every single stock underlying, we find a global ETF (or foreign ETF, whichever one you want to call it). Maybe it’s in the iShare range, maybe it’s in one of the other index provider ranges, and we go and just buy that ETF.
So, there’s only one holding in a feeder fund structure, and that holding is holding this ‘master fund’ or this larger, main parent fund – the wording’s interchangeable, but it’s one fund that we are holding, and that fund is then tracking the index.
So, we would get a return of the fund, which is in turn tracking the index underlying. And that also reduces the cost, because now we’re only holding one instrument. We’re not having to go and trade all of these underlying stocks.
It’s just an efficiency in terms of how we can give global exposure, but in rands. So, we buy the underlying in whatever currency it is, but we offer it to investors in rands. And that is really efficient, in terms of currency, in terms of pricing for the end investor.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s super interesting. And that’s exactly the point, right? It’s a currency efficiency. So technically speaking, someone could go and buy this ETF overseas with their offshore money.
So, if you’ve already taken money out of South Africa (you’ve got, I don’t know, a dollar-based brokerage account or whatever it is), you can go and buy this ETF right now.
Lauren Jacobs: That’s correct, yes.
The Finance Ghost: You can do it. But with the Satrix product, you can now do it without having to first take your money into dollars, for example. So that helps, because every time you’re going into dollars, there are inevitably some pretty ugly fees around switching currency. That bid-offer spread gets pretty wide.
And also, you’re using up your allowance. So, that’s more of a consideration for big investors who… I mean, this is the lifelong dream for many of us, right? May I please get to the point where I feel irritated about only taking, what is it, R11 million out of the country every year?
Lauren Jacobs: Exactly [laughing].
The Finance Ghost: Like, “Oh no, today in first world problems.” But jokes aside, the currency, the bid-offer spread – that’s a big one.
And now, just the ability to see it on your rand-based brokerage account – because the reality is most South Africans, much as they like to complain (well, actually these days we complain a lot less – the rand is looking good, things are looking much better, you go back to the depths of load shedding and no one wanted anything to do with the JSE), even then, familiarity bias kicks in. South Africans just love seeing things quoted in rand, things on the JSE.
I see it with my own work – if I write about a South African stock versus a global stock, there’s no competition here around what people are more interested in. So, these are all of the factors that come in, right? Just making it easier for people to actually get access to the stuff.
Lauren Jacobs: And it’s a huge plus to be able to use your rands to buy an offshore investment. Who wouldn’t want to do that? And also with Satrix, the way we offer it, you can do it on a monthly basis with a debit order. Who would have thought that you can get offshore exposure?
And also, if we go back to our conversation around your bricks and mortar – your house, your investment property – a lot of our assets sit locally, and we want to diversify and improve our exposure. And here you can improve that, but still using your rands. So, it’s a great concept for us to be able to offer this to investors.
On the flip side, though, we must also be aware. Like you mentioned, the rand is doing really well at the moment, but there’s always that currency risk in terms of offering it to you in rands, even though the underlying investment is in dollars or euros. That’s another thing that investors must really be aware of.
You might see, “Oh, the S&P did 10%,” but you must think, “Okay, is that in dollars or in rands?” If I now look at the Satrix S&P 500, which is rand-denominated, and that did maybe 5%, you must remember that the rand strengthened.
So, it’s just something to be aware of. That currency risk is there, and also to be conscious that you can’t just say, “Oh, but Satrix is underperforming because the S&P is doing this.” Also just remember – in what currency is it performing?
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. And this is the thing with offshore, right? You’ve got to have a currency decision, and then you’ve got to decide where your money is going, because you want to take the rands out of the country when the rand is strong.
Unfortunately, it’s just human nature. People panic at the worst time for them to panic. It’s always when the rand is like flirting with R20 to the dollar that everyone is taking their money offshore.
Like, “Oh no, this thing is going to R30. It’s over, it’s done. We are Zimbabwe. Oh my goodness!” And the money’s gone.
And then it comes back down to like R18, and now that wonderful advisor who told you that we are basically going to become a basket case is gone. They’re nowhere to be found, you know. They’ve made their money.
Lauren Jacobs: Exactly.
The Finance Ghost: So, yeah, this is the thing. When the rand is doing really well like this, it’s the time to think, “Okay, what international exposure would I like to pick up?”
Because the rand had a fantastic year. Look, I think it might have another pretty decent year, but we’ll see what happens. It’s off to a very good start…
Lauren Jacobs: It really is, yeah.
The Finance Ghost: …and in the last few weeks, it really has been quite something to watch!
[both laugh]
The Finance Ghost: So, yeah. This is the benefit of diversification. There’s no way to call these things on an individual basis. And you certainly shouldn’t be holding one investment so that you sit there and cry yourself to sleep over, you know, “Oh no, the rand strengthened!”
Then you’re doing it wrong. Then your portfolio is not being managed as a portfolio.
Lauren Jacobs: Definitely.
The Finance Ghost: So, these things are considerations – currency, etcetera. But they should always be seen in the context of the broader portfolio.
Lauren Jacobs: Exactly.
The Finance Ghost: So, speaking of ‘broader portfolio’ and these exposures, let’s talk about the types of properties you’ll actually find in here.
Because, as South Africans, when we look at REITs, we are very accustomed to big shopping centres (that’s always in there), logistics properties these days (so that’s big warehouses, etcetera, etcetera, and also small ones, actually), and then offices.
Offices, people try not to talk about too much, because that’s still a little bit of a mess. Lots of offices got converted to residential. Vacancies are still not great, negative reversions are still a problem.
And we have a sprinkling of specialist funds in South Africa, but we’re very light on specialist property funds in South Africa. There are like a couple, literally. Stor-Age is a very good example (which is, as their name suggests, storage).
But offshore, it’s different. There are lots of specialists, right? So, how much of that comes through in this ETF?
Lauren Jacobs: So, it’s such an interesting sector, this global property sector, because things are changing every day for us. Like you say, moving from that bricks and mortar (office blocks, retail malls) to where, in developed markets, the universe includes so many different properties.
And when I talk about that, it’s from your traditional bricks to digital infrastructure. So, for example, data centres fall within these properties now.
These are the backbone of cloud computing, and AI, and digital services. They house the servers and the network equipment for these large tech companies. I mean, who would have thought, “One day, that’s a property stock”?
Healthcare facilities, those are also now being rented out – senior housing, hospitals, medical offices. We’ve got this ageing population, and we’re outsourcing this healthcare infrastructure. It’s a huge global property play.
And then again, another sector that we look at here is the telecom towers and speciality REITS that we spoke about. These towers are now also being constructed and seen as property, and this is supporting mobile connectivity and digital transformation around the world.
So, it’s a very interesting time. It offers such huge diversification from what we’re seeing in South Africa and what’s offered in South Africa. And it looks at the structural growth of domestic economies and what is going to be required in the future – from property, from what is available to investors in terms of property.
The Finance Ghost: The reason why a lot of these funds and these specialist funds have been spun out of traditional industries – you spoke about stuff like telecom towers, that’s a really good example – is because property is just a very different asset to the operations of a business, and it attracts a very different kind of investor.
So, if you split out the operations of a business from something like its infrastructure, then you can actually reduce the cost of funding for the entire group. Because suddenly, infrastructure investors who see their particular assets as lower risk jump in and say, “Okay, we’re prepared to fund the towers at a lower cost of capital than the actual operations of the tenant of those towers.”
Now, I’ve always wondered about that, to be honest, because in specialist funds, is the risk really so different? At the end of the day, what happens if that telco goes under? It’s not like another one is going to jump in and immediately pick up all those leases.
Lauren Jacobs: Exactly.
The Finance Ghost: So obviously, the more specialised the properties, the riskier it is. But there’s an entire industry of people who have dedicated their careers to quantifying that risk and actually taking a view on capital.
And obviously, CFOs of these groups then say, “Well, how do we optimise our cost of capital? Let’s try to get different investors in. Let’s split out the properties from the operations, etcetera.” And there are still a lot of big corporates that have massive property portfolios sitting on their balance sheet that they haven’t actually split out or done anything with.
One of the really interesting local examples is actually Shoprite. They have a massive property holding. There’ve been many calls over the years for them to actually split that out and separately list as a REIT, bring down their cost of capital, but it’s not something that they’ve done.
And I guess the corporate consideration there is you’ve got to wonder about loss of control of your properties, etcetera. And all of those decisions in boardrooms around the world eventually lead to the creation of these property funds, which then land in an index like this. So, some very interesting stuff.
And, as you’ve mentioned, there are some real growth areas like data centres, etcetera. Lots of debate around: Are there too many data centres at the moment? Are there not enough?
But this is the joy of investing, right? Risk and reward. You’ve got to figure these things out for yourself, right?
Lauren Jacobs: Yes. I think the change in the way business does business is consistent, and that’s also something we want to see going forward – the digital transformation. You want to see that businesses are being mindful of that.
And, like you said, taking your property out of your business and finding different ways to essentially leverage what you can out of those properties. We’re seeing that globally now, so it’s a good direction we’re going in.
And I think, because it’s been in businesses before, a lot of them are now spinning it off and out of their business. It’s not that it’s a new thing, so there is some trust there, and some history there that we can look at and say, “Okay, yes. This is a good thing, going forward.”
The Finance Ghost: The other nuance here is the tax, and we should definitely talk about that, because the tax in this particular fund is quite interesting. There’s a withholding tax benefit in the way that the fund is structured.
So I guess, as simply as possible for investors – let’s call it individual investors specifically, who are sitting there going, “Okay, that’s cool, that’s interesting. What’s in it for me from a tax perspective, versus going and investing in the local ETF?”
What does the tax benefit really mean for investors in the ETF, and how do they see it coming through? Is this something that just comes through in the return of the ETF itself? Does the tax happen layers up, and you just see it in your return? How does that actually work?
Lauren Jacobs: So, as we spoke about earlier, this is a feeder fund. The feeder structure calls for us holding a specific underlying foreign ETF, and the one that we have invested in is the HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITS ETF.
So a UCITS ETF is a specific legal structure. It’s seen in Ireland as like a CIS in South Africa; it’s very similar to that. But in the same breath, that fund is Irish-domiciled – that means that HSBC has set up a company in Ireland, and the fund itself is Irish-domiciled.
The compelling thing about that is that there’s a double taxation treaty between Ireland and the US. What that means is that an Irish-domiciled fund will not pay the full dividends withholding tax on US equities.
And as we spoke about, listed property is like an equity, right? So, what happens with this double taxation treaty is that these Irish-domiciled funds only pay 15% withholding tax on US stocks, not the 30%. And the fund, or let’s say the index itself, 62% of that index sits in US stocks.
So if you think about it, on 62% of your fund, you’re now only paying 15% on your withholding tax, not 30%. But the index itself assumes a 30% withholding tax.
This creates a structural benefit where the fund would consistently outperform the benchmark, because of the fact that you’re paying 15% less on your tax. That means, net of fees, you’re kind of getting that gain over and above your index, for all time periods.
And effectively, what it does is it subsidises the cost of the underlying fund. So, because of the fact that you are now getting an outperformance of the index, you’re actually gaining back the cost of your fund.
And also, that tax saving effectively offsets your fee, and that’s a gain to the investor because you are “not paying a fee”, because the fund has essentially gained that through that withholding tax benefit.
So yeah, for me, that would mean that you are effectively in line with the index. And everybody complains, “Oh, ETFs are always behind the index.” But that’s because of costs.
In this instance, you’re going to see that the fund should essentially be in line with the index, because of that gain from that withholding tax benefit.
The Finance Ghost: Super interesting!
So, I’m looking at the top holdings in the underlying index once you go all the way down to what this thing is actually tracking. Just to give you an idea of diversification, the biggest holding (and hopefully I’m looking at the right thing here) is Welltower?
Lauren Jacobs: Yes.
The Finance Ghost: So if you go and have a look at Welltower (and it’s actually super fun), if you look at their About Us, they talk about being “positioned at the centre of the silver economy”.
Now, before you panic and you think that this is a mining company that’s pretending to be a property company, what they’re talking about is senior citizens in places like the US, the UK and Canada.
These are developed markets which have, I will remind you, a serious birth rate problem, an ageing population, lots and lots of older people who are getting older all the time (again, on average, not individually) because of better healthcare.
And that is interesting. That is an interesting long-term fundamental underpin. There is nothing like that on the JSE. There is not a single property company on the JSE that is anything like that. So, that’s just one example.
Then, Prologis is second. That’s basically the GOAT of logistics plays. That’s the big one. That is the big one.
Lauren Jacobs: Yeah [laughing]
The Finance Ghost: Also in the top five are Equinix and Digital Realty Trust. Those are both data centre-type plays.
Lauren Jacobs: Correct.
The Finance Ghost: And then in fourth place is Simon Property Group (something I’ve researched on Magic Markets Premium a couple of times), which is, again, the GOAT of retail malls in the US.
And again, in the US, if you actually have a look, there’s this horrible long tail of crummy malls that no one wants – it’s a bit like their banks…
Lauren Jacobs: [laughing]
The Finace Ghost: …but the best ones are fantastic, and Simon plays among the best ones. So, that is a really interesting way to go and get that kind of exposure.
Almost 8% sits in Welltower – that’s the senior citizen residential stuff. Prologis, seven-and-a-bit percent. If you combine Equinix and Digital Realty Trust, you’re looking at like 7.7% – that’s the data centres, among those two. There are probably some more further down. And Simon, at like 3.5%.
That’s just your top five holdings. It’s very interesting. I see there’s a storage name down there. There are a couple of storage names down there, actually.
So, again: diversification. For anyone who thinks that diversification is not important, go back and listen to some of the podcasts we’ve done on this series with people like Kingsley, with people like Nico. Just go and have a listen, it’s something we’ve spoken about.
The whole team, really. Siya, Duma. It’s come up over and over again. It’s come up in conversations with professionals way beyond Satrix, because everyone understands that diversification is important.
So, my favourite thing about this ETF is that now there is a way on the JSE to actually go and get this exposure with a single investment and, like you say, a debit order. I would encourage listeners to listen to the discussion I had with René at the end of last year about how far things have come.
It’s absolutely incredible that you can set up a monthly debit order, and a portion of your wealth every month will flow into assets like US senior-citizen housing. Just contemplate how interesting that is, compared to going and hacking your way through that buy-to-let flat that you’ve owned since you were 25 and has gone nowhere in its value.
I mean, I’m being slightly facetious, but go and speak to enough people who have done that, and they all have pain in their eyes – especially, I’m afraid, if it’s places like Joburg. There hasn’t been much property growth over the past, like, 10 years.
I actually went and looked, just for fun, at the apartment in Lonehill where I lived during my articles – which I bought because I articled at a bank and you could get access to this super-cheap funding. And obviously, I had my parents in my ears like, “Well, go and buy property. This is the thing to do.”
That would have been almost 15 years ago now. Whatever it is, I promise you (and I wish I was joking), those apartments are selling for the same price today.
The Finance Ghost: The same price. That’s horrific! It’s so bad [laughing]. So, you know, you’ve got to be careful with this stuff.
Lauren Jacobs: Yeah, I think it’s…okay, maybe my experience is a bit different. In Cape Town, obviously, it’s a little bit different.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s very regional.
Lauren Jacobs: But then you get to a point where you also have to take the tax into consideration. Because now, your return is higher than what you’re paying in terms of your bond payment and your interest. That’s also an important thing to think about.
And if we go back to having a Satrix investment and putting it in your tax-free savings account, the dividends that you get from this listed property ETF – those are not taxable. So, it’s a win-win situation if you now buy the ETF through Satrix and also put it in your tax-free savings account, it’s like a no-brainer to really put a lot of those income-generating ETFs into your tax-free savings account, and just gain in terms of the tax there.
The Finance Ghost: And people often use the argument, “Well, if you go and buy the physical property yourself, then you are getting the full upside on the capital, and you’ve leveraged the thing.”
That’s great, now go take off your costs on the way in (which is your transfer duty, etcetera), and now your cost on the way out (of an estate agent) and give me your average holding period.
And, unfortunately, the other argument that always happens is, “Yeah, but I made money.” And that’s always how people… Unfortunately, when they haven’t really been exposed to proper investment thinking, where you look at the world as an annual return, like a compound annual return over time.
Lauren Jacobs: Yes.
The Finance Ghost: The test is not, “Did you make a profit?” If you made R1,000 on R1 million over 10 years – yes, you made a profit, but you also didn’t. Because your friend, who went and bought shares, is definitely not sitting on R1,000 from his R1 million, or her R1 million.
So anyway, the point is: always speak to your financial advisor. Look at these things as a portfolio, etcetera. But personally, I’m a strong proponent of property ETFs, whether local or offshore.
That comes down to your personal decisions, what you want to own. I mean, that’s where it gets really interesting. But I’m a big proponent of property ETFs, rather than a buy-to-let investment.
Owning the home you live in and you raise your kids in and it’s close to the schools, that’s a lifestyle decision where you have a lot of other things you need to take into account, but certainly buy-to-let, Lauren, I would say the ETFs are more interesting, hey?
Lauren Jacobs: [laughing]
The Finance Ghost: So, when are you selling your apartment and buying ETFs? That’s the big question.
Lauren Jacobs: Let’s not go there right now. Let’s not go there right now. [laughing]
The Finance Ghost: The pain trade. [laughing]
Lauren Jacobs: [laughing] Yeah. And again, going back to diversification. It’s not only what assets you have in your pension fund or in your other portfolios. You need to consider across all the bands.
If you think of your pension fund. Yes, they’re allowed to go with 45% now, but if you look at it, most of the funds are sitting at like 35%, 38%. It’s not that full offshore exposure as yet. So there’s an opportunity there to increase your offshore exposure with this global property fund.
So it’s really looking at the spectrum of what your assets are, whether it’s your house, your pension fund, or your investment property (we may not call it an investment property, but that other property that you rent out).
It’s just thinking around, “What does my total portfolio look like? And how can I improve that, in terms of a) the dividends I’m getting out of it, and the return and the tax efficiency of the total portfolio.”
The Finance Ghost: Just a final comment from my side. If you do invest in this thing now (let’s say the rand strengthens over the next six months and property overseas doesn’t keep up with the level of the rand strengthening), don’t be surprised if it doesn’t give you an initial fantastic return, because your rand-based assets have probably done better.
Again, it’s part of a portfolio. You should never just have one ETF. And I would say if you are going to have one ETF, it shouldn’t be offshore, because your life is in South Africa.
So, if you’re going to have just one – which you should never do – you should be matching it to the currency that you spend in. That would be my two cents’ worth, I suppose.
But as a part of a portfolio, I think it’s super interesting. It’s listed currently, so you can go and search it. The code is JSE: STXGLP, and that is the Satrix Global Property Feeder ETF. Very, very cool.
Final question from my side, Lauren. How long does it actually take to get one of these things off the ground?
Like, from when the team starts saying, “Hey, this is what we want to do,” until we see this on our screens, how long does that actually take? Because I’m sure it’s a lot. It looks simple from the outside – I’m sure it’s anything but simple on the inside.
Lauren Jacobs: We go with about six months. It also depends, because remember, you need your approvals via the FSCA, from your trustees, from the JSE. So, those processes take quite long.
And then, if there are any questions from the FSCA, from the JSE, from trustees. It’s the back and forth. So, I’d say this one took a little bit more than six months, but yeah.
And then, once all those approvals come through, there’s obviously a JSE timeline in terms of creating that on the JSE. So, yeah, it takes quite long, from the inception of the idea.
And I must say that this idea has been around for a long time in terms of Satrix wanting to offer this global property offering to investors. It’s just that, at the time, we couldn’t find an underlying fund that we wanted to buy into, and that also gave us this Irish domicile.
So, it’s taken us a while to get to that point, where we’ve actually found an investment that we wanted to offer to local investors. It’s been a long time coming. I think if you look at our Satrix Balanced and Satrix Low Equity Balanced Index funds on the unit trust side, you’ll see that we were already investing in global property now, I think, since 2022.
So, it’s already part of Satrix. It’s one of our investment views to invest in global property. We’ve been trying to bring this option to local investors outside of our Balanced funds for a while, and this year – sorry, in 2025, not this year – it came to fruition in December.
The Finance Ghost: Fantastic. Congrats. Don’t worry, my brain is still a little bit in 2025 as well. It’s very early in 2026, but off to a good start for the team.
Thank you, Lauren. Great start to the year. I really enjoyed this podcast. I look forward to a whole year of goodies with the Satrix team, obviously. And to you, again, just Happy New Year. To the listeners as well. Let’s get this year off to a strong start.
Lauren, I’m sure we’ll be welcoming you back before too long to talk about something else, so thank you and may your year get off to an excellent start.
Lauren Jacobs: Thanks so much for having me again, Ghost! I’m looking forward to chatting to you again this year.
And if Glencore and Rio Tinto do tie the knot, what will be excluded?
We are firmly in an environment of mining mega-mergers. We’ve seen it with Anglo American (JSE: AGL) and Teck Resources – you know, the “merger of equals” that we keep hearing about. We are potentially going to see it in Glencore (JSE: GLN) and global giant Rio Tinto as well.
And based on their market caps, if a deal does go ahead between Glencore and Rio Tinto (and assuming that not too much is carved out of the merged group and spun off), it would create the world’s most valuable mining group. That probably stings for BHP (JSE: BHG) who tried to cement their position at the top of the pile by making an unsuccessful play for Anglo.
There’s a lot going on in the sector, with the big guns all making moves to distinguish the transition metals from the “dirty” fossil fuels like coal.
Nothing is guaranteed at this stage, but Glencore’s share price is roughly 10% higher than it was before the announcement. This story will be in the headlines for a long time to come, regardless of whether it goes ahead or not. The intent for more huge mergers is clearly there.
Grindrod’s Port of Maputo investment is looking good (JSE: GND)
They handled record volumes in 2025
Grindrod highlighted a press release by the Maputo Port Development Company that paints a rosy picture. Grindrod holds a 24.7% stake in this company as part of its core logistics business.
The Port of Maputo enjoyed an all-time high in volumes in 2025, with a 3.4% increase in total tons processed. The growth rate is actually more important than whether it’s a record, but it still makes for a nice story.
Some other highlights include 6.4% growth in direct operations, as well as a 17% increase in rail volumes.
There have been important infrastructure products at the facility, including expansion to both the bulk terminal and the container terminal. Along with improvements to the logistics corridor, momentum is positive for the business.
Keeping the government happy is always an important consideration in frontier markets like Mozambique. With concession fees up by 4.5% to $48.9 million (excluding any taxes and dividends), all the port’s stakeholders are winning.
Northam Platinum produced more PGMs when it counted (JSE: NPH)
This is what you wantto see when prices are moving higher
Northam Platinum released a production update for the six months to December 2025. They achieved a 3.7% uplift in total equivalent refined PGMs, as well as an increase of 14.8% in chrome concentrate production.
Eland was the star of the show, with a 19.6% increase in PGM concentrate production and a 44.7% jump in chrome production. The only negative move across the board was a 0.4% decline in chrome production at Zondereinde.
Equivalent refined PGMs from third parties increased by 39.7%.
There are a number of projects in progress at the various mines. With prices looking more favourable, it’s a lot easier to justify capex. In fact, the market will demand that capex takes place to support production!
If you’ve ever wondered how important the PGM basket impact is (i.e. the performance over the underlying metals), check out this five-year chart of platinum vs. palladium:
You can also clearly see why the PGM names spiked so strongly towards the end of 2025!
Primary Health Properties celebrates 30 years of dividend growth (JSE: PHP)
It’s a clickbaity milestone, but an impressive one nonetheless
Primary Health Properties kept the headlines busy in 2025 with the Assura deal. The transaction created a much larger healthcare REIT that is still focused on the UK and Ireland. For South African investors looking to diversify their exposure, it’s good to have stuff like this locally available on the JSE.
The focus of a company like this will always be on paying a dependable, growing dividend. This is why it’s a big deal that they’ve just achieved their 30th year of consecutive dividend growth. Naturally, the growth rate is what really counts, as a tiny increase each year just for the sake of that milestone wouldn’t be helpful.
Thankfully, the dividend is up 2.8% on a per-share basis despite such a large acquisition having taken place. This was supported by rent reviews up 3.2% on an annualised basis, so the group is doing a good job of managing inflation. Remember that this is a hard currency play that needs to be seen in the context of developed market inflation and the trajectory of the GBP/ZAR. The cost of debt is also much lower in that market, with a weighted average cost of debt of 3.7% for the company. You therefore can’t compare these percentages to South African property funds without making allowance for the structurally different regions.
The aftermath of the combination with Assura seems to be going well. They’ve already delivered 60% of the total annualised synergies of £9 million, mainly through reducing duplicate roles and professional fees. I’m sure that the remaining 40% won’t be quite as easy.
The other challenge is to get the balance sheet back to the stage where they are within the targeted leverage range of 40% to 50%. A temporary increase in debt ratios is normal in the wake of an acquisition, with strategic asset disposals as a likely strategy in bringing debt levels back to where they want them. They’ve also already refinanced £225 million of the £1.225 billion acquisition facility, so they don’t waste any time at this place in getting things done.
Fitch currently has the company on BBB- with a negative outlook. This is based on execution risk around asset disposals, so any progress made in addressing that risk will do wonders for the credit rating and cost of debt.
Looking deeper at the performance for the year ended December 2025, rental growth on a like-for-like basis was up by 2.7%. The contributions were similar: PHP at 2.6% and Assura at 2.8%.
There is a significant development pipeline across the enlarged group. With completion dates in 2026 and 2027, the pipeline has a remaining cost to complete of £39.5 million and a yield on cost of 5.4%.
Other than a strange spike in early September 2025, the share price has been range bound for the past six months. There is some positive recent momentum though. The market tends to be cautious in the period immediately after an acquisition, although I think that this announcement will do wonders to calm those nerves.
Shuka Minerals is finally ready to move forward with its acquisition (JSE: SKA)
It’s certainly taken long enough to raise the money
You have to feel for Shuka Minerals. They’ve been put through a horrible experience by their funder, Gathoni Muchai Investments. I’ve lost count of how many announcements I’ve seen about delayed funding, despite numerous promises that it would come. The fact that the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining didn’t fall through is nothing short of a miracle.
There were four announcements over the just the past few days, which tells you how closely the situation was being monitored by Shuka’s management team and the company’s stakeholders.
Thankfully, a further payment of £815k was received by the company from its funder, with teeth having been pulled to reach a paltry balance of just £1.115 million (this really is a tiny number in a corporate funding context). A further £385k is undrawn under the facility.
The other big news from a capital raising perspective is that £1 million has been raised through a share placement at 4 pence per share. That’s well below the current (illiquid) share price of R1.07, although it traded as high as R1.50 just yesterday. The bid-offer spread is wide enough that you could park all the recent SENS announcements in that gap and still have space.
There’s also an issuance of share warrants to the equity investors that could raise an additional £2 million at 8 pence per share (valid for 3 years).
What is the prize at the end of all this? Well, acquisition target Leopard Exploration and Mining brings them Kabwe, which they describe as “one of the world’s richest and most notable zinc mines” – and with a production track record going back to 1904! The mine was closed in 1994 as it had become uneconomical to run based on commodity prices at the time.
The zinc and lead resources at Kabwe are estimated to have value of over $2 billion. Naturally, you still have to get the stuff out the ground, with work having been done to establish positive expected returns.
With the funding for the acquisition in place and now additional funding raised, the company will look to undertake drilling work and associated studies (including technology that wasn’t used before at Kabwe, like gravity and magnetic studies). They also need to upgrade infrastructure. The goal is to update the resource estimate later in 2026. This will be key to securing further funding.
Shuka also owns the far less exciting Rukwa coal project in Tanzania. They reckon they can invest just $150k to achieve a staged ramp up to 5,000 tonnes per month in washed coal. This implies an IRR of 80%. $150k is literally pocket change in any corporate context and that IRR is huge. If those numbers are true, they should have no problem raising the money.
Speaking of money being raised, remember that capital raises are going to happen frequently for a company like this. Junior mining is all about reaching milestones and raising capital accordingly. Volatility is really the only guarantee.
Better production yields gave Tharisa a year-on-year boost (JSE: THA)
But the quarter-on-quarter comparison is less favourable
Mining is a difficult game. Not only do you have to navigate commodity prices that can be highly volatile, but you also have to actually produce the commodities in question! Only the latter is within the control of management, so mining houses tend to be judged on their production numbers.
Tharisa has released their production report for the quarter ended December 2025. This marks the first quarter of the 2026 financial year.
The main highlight is a substantial improvement in recovery rates (i.e. the production of PGMs and chrome relative to the reef they processed). This is important, as it can make up for a period in which total material processed was lower.
On a year-on-year basis, PGM production was up nearly 30% and chrome was down 6.7%. It would obviously be nice if both were positive, but PGMs are what counted in that quarter based on a delicious spike in the commodity price.
If you compare the December quarter results to the September quarter results (i.e. a sequential quarter-on-quarter view), you’ll find that PGM production fell 6.1% and chrome was down 14.2%. That’s obviously far from ideal, with weather and other impacts this quarter. It’s also worth noting that the net cash position fell from $68.6 million as at September 2025 to $47 million as at December 2025.
Full year guidance is for PGM production of between 145 koz and 165 koz. Although production is rarely a straight-line thing, guidance can be assessed in the context of Q1 delivering 38.8 koz. On the chrome side, guidance is for 1.50 to 1.65 Mt, with Q1 having delivered 0.35 Mt.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
An entity associated with Johnny Copelyn, CEO of Hosken Consolidated Investments (JSE: HCI) bought shares worth R31.6 million. That’s a substantial purchase!
Prosus CEO Fabricio Bloisi’s wife bought shares in the company (JSE: PRX) worth a cool R19 million. That’s a solid show of faith in her partner!
A non-executive director of MTN (JSE: MTN) bought shares and sold them within roughly a month for a profit. The total value of the sale was roughly R1.75 million. Concerningly, clearance to deal does not appear to have been obtained.
An associate of a non-executive director of Afrimat (JSE: AFT) sold shares worth R440k.
Acting through Titan Premier Investments, Christo Wiese is back on the bid for Brait (JSE: BAT). He bought shares worth over R260k across various trades.
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought shares in his family investment vehicles worth over R121k.
Jan van Niekerk and Piet Viljoen are using Maximus Corporation as their primary investment vehicle to hold their stake in Goldrush (JSE: GRSP). A number of CFD transactions were entered into to effect this restructure. Maximus has direct and indirect exposure to 18.61% in Goldrush.
Trustco (JSE: TTO) has been trading under cautionary for ages now in relation to the company potentially going private. They’ve noted that based on the simplified listing requirements that have been released, they might rethink this decision. As always, there’s never a dull moment with them.
Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding a potential AI and technology company with operations and a significant footprint within the SADC region. As for who it is, we have no idea at this stage. Remember, there’s no guarantee of a deal going ahead here, hence the need to exercise caution.
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