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Ghost Stories #98: Fixed income investing – how to move beyond cash in a balanced portfolio

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In this episode of Ghost Stories, we get stuck into the world of fixed income – a space that retail investors often overlook in favour of equities.

Yusuf Wadee of Satrix concurs with The Finance Ghost’s cricket analogy: fixed income returns act as the singles that keep the scoreboard ticking over. But that doesn’t mean that investors should default to low-yield cash accounts.

Veteran fixed-income portfolio manager James Turp from Ninety One explains how his funds aim to optimise returns in the sweet spot between cash and bonds. And now, with the launch of the Satrix Income Actively Managed ETF (AMETF), investors have an easy way to access this expertise.

Topics covered in this podcast:

  • How a balanced approach to equities and fixed income helps build an innings
  • Diversification, volatility, and survivorship bias
  • How most investors fall into “lazy cash” traps
  • The structure and purpose of the Satrix Income AMETF
  • How the partnership between Satrix and Ninety One works
  • How James constructs an active fixed‑income portfolio
  • Duration, interest‑rate cycles, and inflation dynamics
  • Liquidity and accessibility of an actively managed ETF
  • Tax‑free savings considerations for fixed‑income ETFs

Keen to learn more? Check out the Satrix Income AMETF (JSE: STXINC) here.

This podcast was first published here.

Please remember that nothing you hear on Ghost Stories should be treated as advice. You must always speak to your personal financial advisor.

Full Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. It’s going to be a goodie today, where we’re going to be learning all about fixed income. Which, I’ve got to say, is a very, very interesting part of the world of finance.

It’s certainly not my specialisation, and I’m always keen to learn more about it. 

The reason we will be having that conversation is because we’re going to learn about the Satrix Income Actively Managed ETF. And the best way to do that is for us to have someone here, not just from Satrix, but also now from Ninety One, a name you may well know. 

Before I mention him, let me introduce Yusuf Wadee of Satrix. Yusuf, thank you so much. You are a familiar voice and a familiar face to Ghost Mail listeners. You have done a podcast with me before. You’re a wealth of knowledge, really. And thank you for being here.

I’ll let you say hello first, and then we’ll welcome our esteemed guest from Ninety One.

Yusuf Wadee: Awesome. Thanks, Ghost. Thanks for having me. Excited to get into this very exciting topic with you today.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. So, of course, our other guest is James Turp of Ninety One. And James, you are no stranger to anyone who’s been around financial markets for a long time. 

You were actually working in the global markets team at Nedbank, at around the time that I may or may not have been doing my CA training articles there. Not very ghostly of me to reveal that!

It’s been a while since I saw you on a trading floor. I was an absolute nobody. Fetching coffee, basically. Not much has changed.

You were important. You still are. Nice to have you. Thank you.

James Turp: Absolute pleasure, Ghost. Thanks for that very kind introduction. I do remember all those years ago. That was during and around the Global Financial Crisis. So, never a dull moment on the trading floor back then.

And thanks – what a pleasure to be on your podcast and to join Yusuf from Satrix as well. Thanks very much for having me.

The Finance Ghost: I’m very excited to dig in here. So, look, the reason we’re talking about fixed income, I think it’s an important place to start – and Yusuf, I’m going to start with you on this one – because I think, the majority of people, when they think of markets, especially retail investors, they kind of think to themselves, “Okay, we’re talking equities, we’re talking about stock-picking, we’re talking about ETFs from Satrix, where I’m going to go and actually buy the Top 40 or the S&P 500”, or whatever the case is.

But actually, as you speak to more investment professionals, then this concept of a balanced portfolio starts to come through.

And look, I missed, unfortunately, all of this T20 tournament because I have just been working very hard in earnings season, so there hasn’t been much cricket for me. But I do know, from the bit of cricket that I did used to play: quick singles and boundaries, you kind of need both.

It feels like in many ways, equities are the boundaries. Trying to hit the fours and sixes.

But it definitely helps to just keep that scoreboard ticking over, and to just earn that fixed-income-style return, to actually build out the different risk profiles in your portfolio. 

Do you think that I’m considering this in the correct light? Is that how listeners to this podcast should be thinking about the world of fixed income as they learn about this?

Yusuf Wadee: Thanks Ghost. I think that’s a great analogy.

Think of that batsman. His whole plan is to make a proper innings. In doing so, it’s a combination of singles, low-risk singles. Maybe he squeezes the odd double here and there, but in between those, he goes for the high-risk boundaries, right? He goes for the four, for the six.

I think that’s a great analogy. In many ways that describes diversification, that describes portfolio construction. When you’re putting together an investment portfolio, it’s almost the same principle.

Your low-risk singles, your low-risk doubles are your more subdued investments – your fixed income investments, your local government bonds, your global bonds, as an example, as well as infrastructure. There are other categories of investments that fall in the category of, let’s say, low-risk singles.

Then of course you have your high-risks: high-risk boundaries around the edges, right? You’ve got your local equity markets, your global equity markets. You might like a certain theme which is highly geared to a big development that’s driving global growth going forward, or currently. 

That’s an awesome analogy.

In many ways, the financial markets have adopted that same thinking, but they’ve probably called it other things. The listeners have probably heard stuff like “core satellite approach” to building portfolios. 

In classic theory, you’ve got, let’s say a core, and it can be any sort of core. A low-cost core or a passive core, or it can even be a fixed-income core. And as a satellite, you can then think of other satellite strategies, whether they are highly active funds or equity funds.   

But the whole concept of core satellite is another more formal description of exactly what you described with that cricketing analogy. And again, what you’ve described is pretty much the cornerstone of almost all portfolio theory. 

If I think of all of our pension funds: mine, yours, pretty much everyone – that has to follow Reg 28 portfolio construction – all portfolios follow a balanced fund approach in some form or another.

Whether some guys have a 60-40 split, so they’ve got 60% equities or 40% bonds. In other cases, they may have a 50-50 split: 50% equity, 50% bonds.

But it’s exactly your analogy. You have to have that combination of singles coupled with boundaries. 

There’s real merit as to why that is the case. You think about just playing a cricket match and going for sixes all the time, that innings isn’t going to last very long, right? And it’s the same with the investment portfolio. You can’t just build a long-term investment portfolio just with a one-trick equity play. If you do that, you’re going to have to live with volatility, lots of volatility. 

So clearly, diversification brings down volatility. That’s a good thing.

Drawdowns – if you just have a strong equity-focused portfolio, you’re going to have to be very comfortable with big drawdowns. You can think about the current political crisis, the geopolitics that we’re seeing playing out in the Middle East now, currently.

If you’ve just got a single equity portfolio without any cash allocations, bond allocations, or any other form of diversification, your drawdowns will be pretty steep. Certainly a lot steeper than if you had a balanced fund portfolio. 

We’ve seen this play out time and time again. The investment industry understands as well. You also see – to take that balance fund concept a little bit further – most people would have heard of lifestage portfolios. They probably call it different things, but most people would have heard of a lifestage portfolio. 

So if you go to any fund manager, or any company that sells investment products, most of them would have something called an aggressive balance and a conservative portfolio. Those are exactly balanced funds. They just have a different mix of equities and fixed income. 

If you’re a little bit younger in your career or you’ve got a long time to go for retirement, you probably want to be in the more aggressive side. More equities and less fixed income. 

Closer to retirement, you still have a balanced fund, but you’ve probably got more fixed income and fewer equities. Hence, the conservative portfolio.

So that analogy is a great starting point. Certainly, fixed income plays a very important role in holistic portfolio construction.

The Finance Ghost: Much like cricket, it’s not quite a traditional game anymore. The rules of thumb have gone. It’s the slog sweep, it’s T20.

And don’t worry – if you hate cricket, I promise that’ll be the end of the cricket analogies. You will survive this podcast. That’s quite enough cricket for today.

But it is a good analogy and there are lots of sporting analogies that you can use. There are lots of life analogies that you can use. It’s risk-taking, at the end of the day – it’s risk/reward.

And the one other concept that comes through clearly, and you’ve already spoken to it there, Yusuf, is survivorship bias. 

If you just go for the big sixes, it looks great, until it doesn’t. And if it doesn’t very quickly, then, sorry, that is probably your career out the door.

If it’s Formula One and you take the big risks, and you put it in the wall every time, then, sorry, you’re gone. If it works out well, then great. 

And that’s what equity investing is. If you take on too much risk, yeah, sure, you can look like a genius for a while, but a lot of it is going to be luck. And at some point you are going to run out of luck. The markets will humble you. I don’t care who you are and what you do. 

And in that moment, you’ll be thankful for the day you had some diversification, and you were taking those singles, or you were just keeping things ticking over. 

So, James, that brings me nicely to you. And you’ve been doing this for a long time, as we’ve mentioned: since the Global Financial Crisis, essentially.

Is that what got you into fixed income? Did you just look at the world basically on fire in equities, and you were like, “No, thank you. This is a dumb idea. I’m going to go and play in fixed income and stay there”?

What was it about this space that attracted you to it, and then kept you there for, I don’t know, 20 years now? Almost? Roughly? 

James Turp: That’s some flattery there. Thanks, Ghost [Laughs]. It’s been a couple more years, I’ll let the audience work that one out. 

I did start actually in the currency markets prior to fixed-income, and moved across to managing fixed-income portfolios as the next natural step. 

And what was appealing is, if you think about what makes the world move and what is responsible for a lot – it’s monetary policy. And that is always – in this world of inflation targeting – about cooling off inflation, the number one enemy of investing. 

So, as appealing and attractive as equity and all these other risk assets are, it’s the nuts and bolts of the global economy and protecting your portfolios that is the fixed income responsibility.

Like Yusuf said, you use the term “cornerstone” in portfolio management. It’s the appealing and sexy stuff that gets all the headlines. But when the tide goes out, you look to your fixed income portion to see how bad it really is.

And so that’s the game we’re in. It’s trying to build those singles. But try to tick along and get inflation-beating returns as your primary objective. 

And I just think it’s so interesting. It focuses on the macro economy, really, and everyone experiences it. When you look at other asset classes, they can seem a little bit removed, but you cannot escape the effects of inflation and interest rates. 

And so it’s something that everyone understands, and I think something everyone’s actually really interested in. Sometimes we find it more complicated than it needs to be, Ghost.

The Finance Ghost: I was being slightly kind. You have been doing this since I was in pre-school, but I think it’s because you look so young, which I reckon is because you’ve been on the fixed-income side. It’s just less risky! 

You see the benefits here, building this career of taking the singles rather than trying to smack it as far as possible?

What is interesting is that you are, of course, at Ninety One, not at Satrix, which makes this podcast particularly unique as part of the broader podcasts that I’ve done with Satrix. 

So let’s maybe talk about that, and understand that link before I go back to Yusuf. So, James, you just basically moved across, as I understand it, this is part of the Sanlam – Ninety One transaction, right? 

So maybe just give us literally a minute on what you’re actually doing at Ninety One. What does that new role look like?

James Turp: Effectively, it’s a strategic partnership that Sanlam and Ninety One have. And as a result, Sanlam sold its active asset management to Ninety One, in exchange for shares in the business, and appointed Ninety One as its asset manager of choice, or its preferred asset manager. 

So that means our portfolios, our clients from the Sanlam environment, are now in the Ninety One environment. We’re going to be managing those portfolios within the impressive infrastructure and platform of Ninety One, the biggest active asset management business in the country. So that’s really exciting!

And the good news is that the Sanlam products will (for the most part, in the fixed income area that I manage), remain and be managed in the same way. But they are being enhanced now by this absolutely impressive platform on the other side now, on this side, as it were.

So carrying on and indeed growing, and that’s what this product is. It’s an indication of that change. A new product to channel into a new distribution area that’s untapped. So yeah, very excited about this.

The Finance Ghost: I remember when that deal closed, and then there were just a million SENS announcements about how Ninety One has gone through the 5% threshold on JSE-listed companies. 

I remember being on X, and people were like, “Wow, Ninety One is buying literally everything on the JSE”. And I’m like, “Guys, relax. They’ve just done the deal with Sanlam [laughs]. That’s what this is. These are the funds coming together.”

Anyway, Ninety One has not suddenly bought all of South Africa. Having said that, it is a landmark deal. So I’m sure everyone on that side is quite excited.

So, let’s then get into why we’re doing this podcast, actually – there’s a new and interesting ETF.

Yusuf, I’m going to bring you in here. There’s clearly more to fixed income than just having your money in a money market account at the bank, which I think is the absolute default, right?

For 99.9% of investors, I think it’s as simple as: if I want to buy shares, I go do a Satrix ETF. Maybe I could do some stock picking. Cool. My emergency fund, and my savings and everything else, sits at the bank. If you’re lucky, in a money market account; if you’re very lucky, an inflation-beating interest rate – and that’s it.

There’s clearly more to it than that, and there can be more to it than that for those who seek it out. So walk us through why this ETF is important, what it is, how it actually works, and, for that matter, how it works with Ninety One involved as well.

Yusuf Wadee: Awesome. What’s interesting is that the overall diversification benefits – that’s number one – that’s a key application for fixed-income products.

Number two, another big application that we see is that we get a lot of investors who approach Satrix and they would want to invest for an income, right? 

People invest for different purposes. For a rainy day, you invest for your pension one day when you retire. But a lot of people also just invest to earn an income, right? And so that cannot be underplayed – the importance of investing for an income.

Drawdowns, 7% / 8% / 9% or whatever rates may be at the time – that’s a huge application for us. We’re conscious of the first thing, the diversification play. Two, we’re conscious about people who are looking to invest for income. 

Thirdly, another thing that plays out – you mentioned people putting their money in the bank. There’s an interesting dynamic that plays out when it comes to cash. It’s a very behavioural thing. We see this with our clients all the time. 

So let’s say you get someone looking to save for something: looking to buy a house, save for his kids’ education, his first car purchase. Whatever it is, let’s say he’s got a purchase he’d like to put in place. 

These guys, normally they kind of go “Okay listen, the first thing I want to do is, I go to my bank, start saving cash portion”, right? Now, the reason why that made sense at the time was that in his mind, this person is going “Well, I’m only going to save for about four or five months before I need that cash to do something, right?”. 

But ultimately – and this is an interesting behavioural dynamic that we see play out – most people end up in that position for a lot longer than they initially thought they would. 

They thought they were going to do this for five months. But lo and behold, often you find two years have passed, or maybe even three years have passed – and they haven’t really gotten to what they started out saving for. 

It turns out that a lot of people end up parking cash in very underperforming cash accounts, very low-performing interest-rate accounts. And so it’s a behavioural thing. The banks know this. Well, the banks define it as “lazy deposits”.

The Finance Ghost: The banks love this: sticky deposits, right? Sticky deposits. There’s a term I remember.

Yusuf Wadee: Absolutely, It’s sticky, it’s lazy. And normally, the guys aren’t remunerated for being in there for that period of time. They end up being there for one, two, or three years. It’s unbelievable how sticky these things are. 

But the rates they get are pretty small, right? And so we see a big part of the market that falls into this category. And it’s not only banks. We see investors who go to their stockbroking accounts, and they’re meant to start investing. 

They’re waiting for the right time to pick the right ETF, or they’re waiting for the market to correct, or they’re waiting for that perfect time. And lo and behold, their cash just builds up, and it sits there for six months. And it sits there for a year and sits there for two years. 

And that’s the reason why we’re excited about this fund, right? So we came up with the Satrix Income AMETF; we’ve offered this thing in an ETF form. The reason why is that it turns out the ETF is probably the deepest-penetrating instrument right now.  

You can launch a unit trust, and we’ve got lots of unit trusts. But with unit trusts, you have to have an account directly with us, or you have to have an account on a platform where we’re available. That’s how you get access to our Satrix unit trust. 

But ETFs are a little bit different, right? We list the ETF on the JSE, and the moment we do so we are available on all stockbroking platforms. If you bank with a certain bank, we are available on their stockbroking app. We are available on a multitude of platforms. 

Clients don’t even have to be Satrix clients to access this product. You just need to have access to the JSE. This is the other global appeal of an exchange shared fund. They have democratised investments to such a point purely because they penetrate so deep into the market. 

And so really, that’s why we’ve offered this product in an ETF form, number one.

Number two, this ETF is an actively-managed ETF (we’ll get to why we’ve structured this as an actively managed ETF). 

But in this regard, we have partnered up with James at Ninety One. James has a fantastic track record of successfully running strategies like this for a really long time, consistently delivering strong risk-adjusted performance. And he’s got the benefit of sitting in a globally-integrated fixed income team at Ninety One, certainly the largest fixed income team in SA.  

So, we’re hugely excited by this relationship.

So in a nutshell, Satrix launches this product, and brings it to market, but at the back-end it is managed by James at Ninety One on an actively-managed basis.

This fund is completely actively-measured. I think James will take us through some of his philosophy shortly. But the whole point is that this fund aims to give investors something slightly more than cash, because that’s the whole point, right? Something slightly shorter than bonds. So it sits at the unique space between cash and bonds. The one-year paper, two-year paper, five-year paper. 

It’s a very interesting part of the curve, where we think there’s lots of value. It delivers lots of strong cash-plus performance. I mean, the fund that we have launched in conjunction with James aims to pay money-market rates plus about a percent on average. So it aims to beat the average money market by about a percent, which we’re quite excited about. 

It has a limited drawdown. Investors couldn’t expect to have a capital loss if they’re investing for periods of more than three months, three-to-six months. Not a very volatile fund.

We’re offering this fund at 46 basis points, which is pretty much institutional-style pricing for everyone. That’s the exciting thing about an exchange traded fund, right? Everyone gets the same deal. There’s no institutional class or retail class. 

James can certainly take us through some of his philosophy in terms of exactly the magic behind how he ekes out that 1% of the money market.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, we definitely are going to dig into that, without a doubt. 

I think the one thing I just wanted to point out to people – that really does show the distribution, the flexibility, the structuring power of an ETF as a structure – it basically is really just a cool way for people to get access to this kind of thing, which is now very much actively managed. 

There have been many podcasts that I’ve done with Satrix team members in the past few years, really, where we’ve kind of debated the passive-versus-active. And tried to take the conversation away from “an ETF is always passive”. No, an ETF is a rules-based thing. It’s a structure. It’s something a little bit different to that. 

It doesn’t necessarily always mean passive. And here’s a really good example of that.

And as you say, people’s behaviour costs them money. You put money in a money-market account that’s designed to give you instant access to your funds. That should really be your emergency money, and not much more.

And I’m guilty of it too. I think we all are. Very few people manage their money to that level of precision. You’ve just got too much else going on in your life. It’s kids, it’s family, it’s work, it’s life. You can’t possibly manage your own money to that level of excellence.

But you can try and get closer. You can try and say, “Well, what do I really need this money for?” and then try and actually buy the right point on the curve. As you say, it rewards you for it. 

So James, that’s where you certainly come in. And this is, of course, a wonderful opportunity to get a little bit of a masterclass, if you will, from someone who’s been doing this for a long time. All the experience in the world – and trying to understand how your world really works. 

What are the building blocks that you’re working with? How are you trying to structure something in the right way?

Give us that fixed-income masterclass, and then how it specifically relates to this product.

James Turp: There are a couple of ways you should look at fixed income.

I think hearing Yusuf ‘s comment earlier – so you’ve got money-market, right, which is basically the collective term for very short-term investments. So something that you’re going to put in the bank; they often call them “call accounts” or money market (slightly better), but it’s where you would put the money that you need immediately. 

That’s not what I’m focused on. I’m focused on more committed funds.

So you’ve got the extreme now, which is bonds. And just by definition, the word “bond” shows you that it’s a commitment. And though liquid, it’s basically an investment of money for a fixed period of time that’s going to pay you interest over this holding period. 

But in between now and getting your money back, a lot can happen. So things can get risky. And if you were to need your money sooner, you could take a capital loss or a capital gain. But that’s a commitment. 

We try and structure products in between the two as well (so in between money market and bonds, which is the extreme).

So the basis of fixed income is built around inflation. Inflation is what eats away at the buying power of your money. So, a rand can buy less in a year’s time than it can now, if inflation is high, or wherever inflation sits. So we want to get investors at least ahead of inflation.

And money-market funds in South Africa tend to do that, because we have what they call “positive real rates” – “real” meaning the difference between inflation and what you’re earning. 

We want to reward people even more. And we often talk about it as your loyalty. The loyalty of your deposit of money should be rewarded. And so if you’re thinking, “My cash could be there for three months, six months, 12 months or more”, you should try and correlate that to an investment product. 

In doing that, you also find in the market, the assets that we would look to buy will pay you more for longer-term commitment. So collectively, in a product like this actively-managed Satrix ETF, we can put all sorts of those fixed-income investments in, and structure a liquidity signature in the fund, that can match these types of investors. 

To structure a portfolio like that, you actually need to put a number of different assets in. You’d put a number of fixed-rate bonds and floating-rate bonds, as well your cash-type instruments as well. So floating-rate bonds are a big part of the strategy – and those are also commitments. 

But the interest rate changes, like a home loan – if you think about all of our home loans, rates go up – suddenly, you get that letter from the bank quite quickly, that your rate is now even more [laughs]. And if rates come down, of course, that’s the good news, you’ll be paying less. 

Well, the opposite applies in these of course, rates go up – you’re actually happy that you’ve got those, because you’re going to be earning more, and vice versa.

So, it’s about getting the right amount of interest rate risk, for the current economic cycle that we believe we’re in. 

And that’s where the Reserve Bank comes into it, and that’s where the economy comes into it. Because the Reserve Bank is trying to keep inflation at 3%. We know that the change was made last year and adopted by the National Treasury. So we know they’re trying to keep it at 3%.

But if inflationary pressures grow, they hike interest rates. The theory being, if you hike interest rates, the cost of doing business or the cost of inflationary pursuit is cooled, and then slowly inflation moderates down. That’s the relationship between monetary policy and inflation.

So we need to sit and work out, as a team, where we think we are in the interest rate and inflation cycle. If we think that inflation for the next two years is going to be under control, or if it’s going to be lower or higher, then we would forecast what we think interest rates would do to respond to that. 

But the market’s smarter than us. Collectively, the market always prices in the “efficient market hypothesis”, that all known information usually is priced into the market.

So when you look at interest rates, what they’re discounting normally corresponds to the inflation expectations collectively of the market. So we as active managers have to work out: do we think the market’s right or wrong? Do we think inputs will be different?

But ultimately, how should we position this portfolio to benefit from any discrepancies that may exist? Or if we can’t find any, what’s the best position on the curve for the current expectations?

And that’s the beauty of this fund. It’s flexible. And so it can one day – as an extreme, it can look like a money market fund- and the next day it could look like a bond fund. It’s highly unlikely it’s going to be that much of a chameleon. It’s going to operate somewhere in the middle. 

We want to keep its risk as low as possible, but we want to get on the best risk-adjusted area on the curve, meaning: where do we think we’re getting the most reward for the least amount of risk?

And that seems to be, for example, at the moment, somewhere around the two-year area on average. That doesn’t mean you’re buying two-year fixed deposits though. It means you’re structuring a portfolio with a number of fixed-rate bonds and a number of floating rate bonds and cash, the average of which, if we simplify things, the interest rate risk arrives at somewhere around two years. It could be one year, it could be three years. It just depends where you think – but it’s important that we acknowledge that sometimes you may just want to get a low-risk, fixed-income portfolio. We don’t want to take too much risk for these.

What we’re telling investors is its rewarding you for your loyalty and for the time that money is going to be in there. And we don’t want to create unnecessary volatility. 

So that’s the general thinking around this sort of vehicle. For many years now, this area of fixed income in South Africa has been the fastest-growing area of investment. It’s a good move by Satrix to include such a product in their already impressive offering.

The Finance Ghost: Thanks, James. That’s a fantastic amount of insight there. Very, very cool. You’ve spoken to positive real rates there in South Africa. It certainly does make fixed income quite exciting here. 

I would think you’ve actually got interest rates to work with, that move around – you’re not sitting in a developed market where it’s little incremental changes. Although these days, it’s a whole lot more volatile than I ever remember it. But still, it feels like emerging markets are the fun place to be with this. 

I think that point – that it’s fixed income, not fixed returns – has come through in what you’ve described. It’s a fixed-income instrument. It’s a thing that pays a set amount, or at least references a rate, whatever the case may be. 

But actually, a lot of other stuff happens. It was, for me, the scariest of the CFA textbooks. So, much respect for everything you do in this space. Lots of maths, as opposed to lots of storytelling, which is more my world in equities. But it is very, very interesting and I’m not surprised you spend so many years doing it because it changes all the time

And like you said, it’s an optimisation process. It’s baking, not cooking. It’s finding that perfect little amount that changes everything. That’s really what you’re doing, which is a very cool space, very technical. 

And Yusuf, that’s obviously why you’ve partnered with James – to actually make this work, to do this actively-managed ETF. Wearing my investor hat, I listened to this, and I’m like, “Okay, so the idea here would be that net of fees, I get a better outcome here than I do – not necessarily in a money-market account because there’s a slightly different risk, I have to commit my money for a bit longer here.”

That’s what I’m hearing. So I just want to make sure, for listeners, they understand where this competes with other alternatives to get that fixed income return on their money, and how they think about it going into the portfolio?

James Turp: I just wanted to make sure – the access to your funds is always immediate in this product. It’s advised that you keep your cash there for a bit longer, but you always have access to your liquidity. So I think that’s just an important point there. 

The beauty of this is, you always have access to your money, but it’s advised that you match your minimum investment period with the sort of fund you invest in. We don’t want to make the audience think, “We’ve got to commit to this”. No one wants commitment in this day and age! [laughs]. 

Yusuf Wadee: [Laughs]. As James said, it’s readily available. It’s a daily-traded fund. Investors can buy in at 10 o’ clock in the morning, and they can sell at four in the afternoon. It’s listed on the JSE, you trade it whenever you like. It’s real-time liquidity. And that’s the beauty of an exchange-traded fund. 

The comment around term was, that’s where this fund ekes out that premium. It’s invested in paper that has exposure to term. But it doesn’t mean your money is locked up for term. You can cash out as and when you like. 

So that’s the beauty of these types of funds. Income funds, money-market funds, they clearly form an aggregation of lots of different instruments, some short-term, some long-term. 

But as a whole, they are very much a daily-traded experience. That’s why they do have an advantage of simply just putting your money in a bank account, putting your money with one instrument, with one person. 

Back to your earlier comment. As you pointed out, Satrix is an indexation house. We offer index product, index-tracking manager. We offer index-tracking products in a variety of spaces and asset classes. 

If you think about, “How do you get access to the US?”, well, we’ve got an S&P 500 ETF. Access to India? Well, we’ve got an MSCI India. We are passionate, and that’s something that is the cornerstone of what we believe at Satrix. 

The interesting thing however, is that when you look at the fixed income space, this is an interesting quantitative dynamic. Few parts of the fixed-income market actually lend themselves to indexation. 

Take bonds as an example. The long-term bonds, the bonds that hang around, they’ve got a 10-year maturity; 15-, 20- year maturities. Those long-dated instruments, right?

Those instruments actually lend themselves very well to being indexed. In fact, there are indices of those bonds, and Satrix tracks those indices. We’ve got a Satrix government bond ETF, inflation-linked bond ETF. We’ve got a Satrix global bond fund that gives you access to global bonds. 

But what is a very interesting thing, is that it’s actually quite difficult to index the short term money market; the short-term paper. This is an interesting thing that not many people appreciate. There doesn’t exist a credible, replicable short-term fixed-income index. 

The market would have heard of STeFI. Everyone talks about the STeFI index. Well, the STeFI is an index that simply reports performance of short-term paper. 

It’s not something that I can invest alongside the STeFI recipe. I can’t break down the STeFI, look at the component parts, invest exactly in line with it and then achieve the STeFI performance. 

That’s an interesting thing that plays out in the fixed-income space, and that’s really the reason why we’ve partnered up and gone down the active-managed route for this space. Because it’s pretty difficult to try to do this via a traditional index route.

It’s certainly our view that this is the best way to deliver product in this space – something between cash and bonds. As James mentioned, the sweet spot is the duration of two years or just under.

We’re super excited about it, and this is certainly, in our view, the best way to play this part of the market – via an active-managed strategy. Hence why we launched the Satrix Income AMETF.

The Finance Ghost: So Yusuf, then maybe just to finish off on this point, I know tax-free savings are always top of mind for investors. We’ve just seen that annual allowance go up actually, which is quite exciting.

I imagine this works like any other ETF. If you want to hold it in your tax-free savings account, you can?

Although individual investors do actually benefit from some tax-free interest every year, and they should definitely just think that through, don’t necessarily go and waste your tax-free allowance holding interest-earning instruments when you can get interest-free returns without being in it. Go and speak to your financial advisor please. 

I guess the point I wanted to check, Yusuf, is: it can go into your tax-free savings account if you want to use it as a way to either park money, or balance risk, or whatever the case may be, right? It’s like any other ETF?

Yusuf Wadee: Certainly. It’s available on SatrixNOW or any other tax-free platform that clients may have access to, where they can access the JSE’s range of exchange-traded funds. That tax-free savings account is a fantastic vehicle for lots of South Africans to get into the discipline of long-term savings. 

And in many ways, the products we bring to market play exactly to the space where people investing in platforms like SatrixNOW can easily make a decision about these products. 

Products we’d like to think are super succinct; they’re very simplistic to understand – and so investors can quickly form a view on whether they like these types of payoffs or not. 

Classic point: if you like the US, we’ve got S&P 500; you like South Africa, you’ve got the Satrix 40

In very much the same vein, we think if investors want access to the cash market, let’s assume they just can’t make up their minds about bonds. 

Maybe it’s something a little bit tough for them to get their heads around, but if they want something better than cash, this is certainly a product we think is super simplistic and provides very efficient exposure to this part of the market.

So, if you want access to short-term cash, that part of the yield curve, we’re super excited about this product.

The Finance Ghost: Yusuf, thank you so much; James, thank you so much. You’ve really shed some good light there on your world. Fixed income, it’s obviously a gigantic topic. We could do 10 podcasts! There’s a reason why those CFA fixed-income textbooks are quite thick. And that was not the intention today.

It was really just to give people an idea of the kind of thinking that goes behind this, and most of all to expose investors to the fact that this product now does exist. The Satrix Income Actively Managed ETF

If you want someone like James making clever decisions on the curve with your money, and you want to take advantage of the excellent Satrix distribution and the low fees, then this is a very viable alternative. 

Obviously, as always, speak to your financial advisor, make sure you understand the product properly, and do the research. 

Yusuf, James, thank you so much for your time on this. Good luck with this one.

Yusuf, Satrix has been so busy launching new products, it’s insane. It really is outrageous. James, I’m sure you’ve been busy too, but the amount of new products coming out of Satrix right now is incredible, actually. Really good to see, so well done. 

To both of you, thank you for your time today.

James Turp: Thank you, Ghost.

Yusuf Wadee: Thanks for having us. 

Disclaimer:

Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Actively managed ETFs (AMETFs) the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of an ETFs and AMETFs, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange. ETFs and AMETF are registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange, LISP platforms and or via online trading platforms. ETFs and AMETFs may incur additional costs due to it being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Should the respective portfolio engage in scrip lending, the utility percentage and related counterparties can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document. The index, the applicable tracking error and the portfolio performance relative to the index can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document. International investments or investments in foreign securities could be accompanied by additional risks such as potential constraints on liquidity and repatriation of funds, macroeconomic risk, political risk, foreign exchange risk, tax risk, settlement risk as well as potential limitations on the availability of market information. AMETF are ETFs which are actively traded by a Portfolio Manager to adjust the AMETF holdings and asset allocation with the aim to outperform the benchmark. AMETF differ from ETFs which only track indices. The Manager does not provide any guarantee either with respect to the capital or the return of a portfolio. Satrix retains full legal responsibility for the co-named portfolios. 

The management of this investment is outsourced to Sanlam Investment Management (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 579) that forms part of the Ninety One group of companies. 

Ghost Bites (Burstone | Bytes Technology | Discovery | Gemfields | Insimbi Industrial | MAS | Netcare)

Burstone is at the lower end of guidance for distributable earnings (JSE: BTN)

The South African property portfolio is outperforming Europe

Burstone released a pre-close update for the year ending March 2026. The key takeout is that distributable earnings for FY26 will increase by 2% to 3%, which is at the lower end of full-year guidance. The dividend payout ratio will be maintained at 90%.

The South African portfolio is doing the heavy lifting. Accounting for around 80% of group income, this portfolio enjoyed an uplift in net property income of 4% to 5%. The retail portfolio has been an exceptional performer, contributing 45% of the South African portfolio and growing by 8% to 19% in this period.

The same can’t be said for Europe, where the like-for-like performance was slightly down vs. the prior period. Higher vacancy rates were a major factor here. Despite the pressure in Europe, Burstone will be launching a new light-industrial platform in the region with Hines European Real Estate Partners. Burstone will invest 20% of the equity and will act as investment and asset manager, unlocking fee income along the way.

In Australia, they are growing off a low base and securing additional capital from partners to deploy in the region.

Burstone still hasn’t made any final decisions around a South African property platform with external investors, even though we’ve been hearing about this strategy for a couple of years now. Given the local performance, perhaps they don’t want to dilute their equity ownership in these assets?

Overall, the group’s fund and asset management activities now contribute between 15% and 17% of group earnings vs. just 10.7% in FY25.

The loan-to-value ratio sits at 40%, right at the top of the group’s target range. To help manage it, they expect to recycle capital through South African asset disposals.

My overall read is that they are growing with Other People’s Money (every banker’s favourite concept) in Europe and Australia, while being cautious with any dilution in South Africa. That’s not a bad thing at all.


The market has no love for Bytes Technology Group at the moment (JSE: BYI)

The share price has halved in the past year – and shed 15% on Tuesday!

Bytes Technology Group is having a tough time. They are far too reliant on businesses like Microsoft, evidenced by the impact of changes to Microsoft’s enterprise incentive structures. The market used to be willing to pay a high Price/Earnings multiple for this story. But not anymore.

In a trading update for the year ended February 2026, Bytes confirmed that they performed in line with the outlook they gave in October 2025. This means double-digit gross invoiced income growth.

Although gross profit was up 6% in the final two months of this financial year, the outlook is for flat operating profit in FY27.

To make it worse, the underlying assumption in achieving flat operating profit is that gross profit will be up by high single-digit to low double-digit percentages in FY27. If they miss that gross profit target, does that mean that operating profit will decrease year-on-year?

In case you’re wondering, the expected cost pressures relate to higher technology costs and a “return to normal bonus levels” alongside higher headcount – not the kind of thing that investors want to read when a share price is in the toilet.

Forgiveness will come if the headcount and bonus investment translates into a more resilient business that is capable of growing. They have initiatives across the private and public sector to make this happen.

And if it doesn’t? Well, on a P/E of 13x, there’s still plenty of room to drop further – especially as a growth stock with broken wings.

What’s your view on this one?

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Once bitten, twice shy?

Are you having a punt at Bytes Technology?


Discovery is selling a R831 million investment that you probably didn’t know they had (JSE: DSY)

Ever heard of Cambridge Mobile Telematics?

As a reminder of the sheer scale of Discovery, the company has announced the disposal of approximately half of its stake in Cambridge Mobile Telematics (CMT) for R831 million.

The returns here are a bit of a joke. In 2014, Discovery invested $5 million for a 21.67% stake. After plenty of dilution (and a delicious partial sale for $28.5 million), Discovery’s stake in CMT had reduced to 8.7%.

This means that Discovery is now selling around 4.3% in CMT for $49.5 million (that’s where the R831 million is coming from).

This has obviously been an incredible investment in the company that has provided the expertise powering the telematics side of Discovery Insure’s operations. They turned $5 million into $78 million over 12 years!

What’s the lesson here? If your company is going to make another company very valuable, then make sure you get an equity stake along the way.


Losses have nearly halved at Gemfields (JSE: GML)

They’ve had a couple of very tough years

Gemfields released a trading update for the year ended December 2025. The good news is that the headline loss per share has improved by 44.8% in rand terms. The bad news is that they are expecting a loss of 21.6 cents on a share price of R1.10.

Due to the recent rights issue to recapitalise the company, the weighted average number of shares in issue has increased by roughly 26%. More shares in issue is usually a negative point, as it is dilutive to HEPS. But when a company is in a loss-making situation instead, it actually spreads the losses across more shares!

In other words: the underlying business performance is worse than what’s implied by the 44.8% improvement in headline loss per share.

This shouldn’t be a surprise. The year was affected by operational interruptions at both the ruby and emerald mines. There’s been a delay in the final commissioning of the PP2 ruby processing plant, with this issue expected to continue well into the first half of 2026. In addition to the internal issues, auction outcomes during the year were a mixed bag. Only high-quality emeralds and rubies achieved an encouraging pricing trajectory, with the lower-quality stuff under pressure.

They need to achieve further deleveraging of the balance sheet (i.e. reductions in debt). If they don’t achieve a substantial improvement in the operations, I’m scared that this might involve asking shareholders for more money.

The share price is down 72% over 3 years. Yikes.


Insimbi Industrial Holdings has reduced losses (JSE: ISB)

But they haven’t swung into profits just yet

Insimbi Industrial Holdings released a trading statement for the year ended February 2026. They expect the headline loss per share to improve by at least 30% vs. the prior period’s loss of 6.5 cents per share.

But that means that there is still a loss.

EBITDA is expected to be at least 40% up on the prior period. Aside from better revenues, they’ve also reduced costs during the year. These benefits were partially offset by the once-off costs incurred to close loss-making operations during the period.

The share price has lost nearly half of its value over 3 years, so a couple of rough years have taken their toll. The good news is that the price is up 7% over 12 months, so perhaps it bottomed in the past year and wants to move higher?


MAS is firmly a NAV growth story these days (JSE: MSP)

Will shareholders ever see another dividend?

You may recall all the corporate activity around MAS towards the end of last year. Despite being one of the more obscure JSE-listed property funds, MAS became the focus of a battle between Prime Kapital and South African institutional investors.

Prime Kapital emerged victorious, which means that MAS is now firmly a net asset value (NAV) unlock play rather than a dividend play. Investors are far more likely to see share buybacks than further dividends from MAS. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it’s outside of the norm in the property sector.

The company has changed its most relevant measure of performance. Instead of distributable earnings per share, they will be using total shareholder return (the growth in NAV per share over 12 months, plus any payments made to shareholders).

On that note, the total shareholder return for the 12 months ended December 2025 was 7%. That sounds encouraging, but underlying earnings per share for the six months to December 2025 came in much lower than the comparable period.

This is where you need to be careful. Total shareholder return will always be reported on a trailing twelve months basis, even when the company releases interim results for a six-month period.

There are various reasons why earnings per share was just 1.97 eurocents in this period vs. 12.01 eurocents in the prior period.

For example, the trading environment was nowhere near as strong in Romania in this period as it was in the prior period. They also sold a property portfolio in January 2025 and reinvested the proceeds at lower returns. There was a negative fair value adjustment on a property in Germany that is in the process of being sold.

There was also a loss attributable to the ordinary shares in the DJV joint venture. Aside from underlying pressures on development activity, there were higher finance costs in the DJV after debt was raised to acquire shares in MAS.

The loan-to-value ratio at MAS is 21%, which is lower than 25.6% as at December 2024.

In a separate announcement, PK Investments (listed on the Cape Town Stock Exchange) has announced a bid to increase its stake in MAS from the current level of 37%. They want to acquire up to 40 million shares at a guided price of R19.75 per share, although the final pricing of the offer will be based on a clearing price.

40 million shares represent roughly 5.5% of total MAS shares in issue. The other important point is that the MAS share price is currently R19.70.


Netcare seems to be doing well (JSE: NTC)

EBITDA margin is the important thing to watch

Ahead of an investor conference at Sun City, Netcare has provided a voluntary update on the operating performance for the five months to February 2026.

Normalised paid patient days grew by 0.8% for the period. The acute business was up 0.5%, impacted by changes in the medical scheme industry that are affecting member utilisation. Mental health was up 2.9%, giving us another great reminder of the times we live in (and where Netcare is investing).

Both the acute and mental health businesses are expected to have a strong second half performance based on increases in the number of beds and other initiatives.

Revenue for the period was up by 4.5%. Although that doesn’t sound like much, it was enough to drive a slight increase in the EBITDA margin. This means that Netcare is doing a good job of controlling costs.

R292 million was invested in share buybacks during the period at an average price of R16.08 per share. The current share price is R16.56.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CFO of Thungela (JSE: TGA) has sold shares worth R43 million as part of the early termination of an off-market collar hedge over 250,000 ordinary shares. The structure was entered into in April 2024. In a separate announcement, the company noted that the group’s HR exec sold shares worth R2.7 million.
    • The CEO of Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) bought shares worth over R2.5 million.
    • A director of Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (JSE: SCD) bought shares worth almost R280k.
  • Aimia (JSE: AII) has reported results for the quarter and year ended December 2025. This Canadian-listed holding company listed quietly on the JSE recently. The group’s recently appointed executive chairman is Rhys Summerton, who also happens to be the CEO of iOCO (JSE: IOC). Naturally, people are speculating about the plans here. There’s absolutely no liquidity in Aimia on the JSE at the moment, so the results are a somewhat moot point for now. The group is sitting on cash of $109.2 million. With a deal in place to sell specialty chemicals business Giovanni Bozzetto, they expect to generate net proceeds of $265 to $271 million. That’s quite a war chest…
  • Tharisa (JSE: THA) announced improved trade facilities for its subsidiary that trades chrome concentrates. Local and international banks have provided two separate facilities of $45 million in total, with an accordion of $15 million. As a reminder, an accordion allows a facility to be increased in size without changing any of the other terms. Support from the banks is always good news.
  • Between September 2025 and March 2026, PBT Holdings (JSE: PBT) repurchased shares to the value of R22.8 million. The average price paid was R6.69. The current share price is R7.00.
  • In today’s edition of ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) keeping SENS busy, the company announced that a UK subsidiary of Quantum Leap Energy has commenced a strategic collaboration with the University of Bristol for the design of a state-of-the-art lithium laser research facility. And yes, this is another SENS announcement that should’ve just been a press release.
  • Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) announced that the Phase 1 drilling results at the Molefe copper mine have been delayed pending sign-off from the Competent Person (as defined in the listing rules). They will release the results as soon as sign-off is complete.

Ghost Bites (ADvTECH | Fairvest | Heriot REIT | Hulamin | Oceana | PSG Financial Services | Thungela | Vukile Property Fund)

ADvTECH delivers the usual story: great education numbers and weak resourcing results (JSE: ADH)

Encouragingly, the South Africa Schools Division is still doing well

For the year ended December 2025, AdvTECH’s revenue was up 10% and HEPS increased by 17%. The dividend per share followed suit, up nearly 17%. These are strong numbers that reflect the benefits of consistent revenue growth and improving margins.

Return on Equity (ROE) is now in the 20s, coming in at 20.6% vs. 19.7% in the prior year. A fixed asset base (like a group of schools) that generates an increasing stream of profits is a beautiful thing to own.

ADvTECH has succeeded where Curro could not: they have built a strong primary and secondary education business in South Africa that is capable of long-term growth and impressive margins. Above all else, this is because they chose to build a premium offering, rather than a more affordable offering that could compete with the better government schools.

The Schools South Africa segment grew revenue by 10% in 2025 and operating profit by 13%. Operating margin was 20.9%, up a tasty 40 basis points vs. 2024. This is despite growth in student numbers of just 1%, so parents at these schools are having to dig deep to get the best possible education for their kids.

The real margin hero is Schools Rest of Africa, where revenue was up 28% and operating profit jumped 33%. Operating margin came in at 33.7%, a remarkable level that is even higher than the 32.4% achieved in 2024.

The Tertiary division grew revenue by 13% and operating profit by 14%. Operating margin was 26.8%, 20 basis points higher than 26.6% in 2024. At least two of ADvTECH’s brands plan to apply for university status under the new regulations that have created this pathway.

We now reach the ugliest of ugly ducklings: the ever-suffering Resourcing division, where revenue fell 6% and operating profit was down 9%. Operating margin has been stuck between 6.3% and 6.6% for the past four years. Practically all the profit is made in Rest of Africa, rather than South Africa.

The only reason that I can think of to keep the Resourcing division is that it’s an asset-light model, so even a modest level of profit is reasonably attractive for the group in terms of return on capital.

Or perhaps they just can’t find a buyer for it?


Fairvest is on track to deliver double-digit growth to B-share investors (JSE: FTA | JSE: FTB)

When times are good, the more variable B shares are where you want to be

Fairvest has released a pre-close update for the six months to March 2026. They expect to meet the upper end of the guided growth in distribution per B share of between 9% and 11%.

70.5% of the portfolio’s revenue is from the retail portfolio. 18.4% is in office, with the remaining 11.1% in industrial. Group reversions were positive 5.8%, so there’s solid momentum in demand for Fairvest’s space.

The retail portfolio’s reversions of 5.3% are below the group average, with vacancy rates having ticked up from 3.6% to 4.8%. But here’s another important point: the reversion is significant better than the positive 2.5% in the prior year, so the vacancy rate might be due to Fairvest’s desire to obtain better pricing on the leases.

The office portfolio is a nice surprise: positive reversions of 5.7% are higher than in the retail portfolio! The vacancy rate has moved higher though, up from 9.0% to 9.7%.

In the industrial portfolio, reversions were 8.3%. This remains a highly attractive asset class in South Africa. Although vacancies jumped from 1.2% to 5.4%, these portfolios tend to be lumpy by nature.

With the loan-to-value ratio expected to be below 27%, the balance sheet is in particularly good shape.


Excellent growth at Heriot REIT (JSE: HET)

It’s rare to see property companies growing at such a high rate

Heriot REIT has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. They expect their distribution per share to jump by between 15.2% and 17.0% – that’s a big move!

The net asset value per share is expected to be between 20.2% and 21.3% higher. It’s extremely unusual to see per-share moves of this magnitude at a property fund.

When full results become available, it’s going to be important to dig into the details.


Tough times at Hulamin, as the group swings into losses (JSE: HLM)

Operational setbacks have really hurt the business

Hulamin has released results for the year ended December 2025. Brace yourself: they aren’t pretty! The market at least knew about the problems ahead of this release, with the dire situation having been flagged in trading statements released by the company.

The big issues related to the commissioning of their plant following an integrated shutdown. They had operational setbacks that destroyed the numbers, with Hulamin reporting revenue growth of 2% and an operating profit decline of a shocking 79% for the year.

On a HEPS from continuing operations level, they swung from profit of 77 cents to losses of -21 cents.

Here’s another number that isn’t good news: net debt has increased by 24% to R1.65 billion. Although they are still meeting covenants, this isn’t the direction of travel that investors want to see.

The good news is that the late start up and the metal filtration system failure issues will not impact the new financial year. In terms of plant stability, they expect to reach production nameplate capacity by the end of Q1 2026.

The bad news is that the extrusions disposal still has a while to go, with that company generating losses in the meantime.

One thing is for sure: there’s no shortage of headaches at Hulamin.


Flat revenue and some pressure on profits at Oceana (JSE: OCE)

Shareholders can once again thank their Lucky Star

Oceana has released a voluntary trading update for the 5 months to 22 February 2026. I assume they have important weekly accounting processes (like many FMCG companies) and they chose this random date as a sensible cut-off for this update. Results for the six months to 31 March 2026 will be released in late May.

Revenue for this period is described as being consistent with the prior period, while operating profit has come in slightly lower.

As usual in a diversified fishing group, there’s good news and bad news when you dig into the segmentals.

Starting with the highlights, Lucky Star enjoyed a 6.7% uptick in sales volumes during the period thanks to the demand for canned fish. I wonder to what extent the inflation in beef played a role here? Canned beef also grew strongly (now 9% of total sales volume), so consumers are clearly looking for value here.

Lucky Star somehow managed to increase margins despite a 77% decrease in local production. The strong rand made imports more affordable, while lower freight costs also helped. I must point out that the situation in Iran must be putting them under considerable pressure at the moment, as freight costs and the rand have both moved against them.

Inventory levels are 59% below the prior period’s elevated levels. They’ve done a great job of working through the stockpile, but this puts them at risk of supply disruptions.

In Wild Caught Seafood, the horse mackerel business in Namibia is the highlight. Again, lower fuel costs are a major factor here – and the world has changed dramatically in recent weeks. As a mitigating factor, 70% of the segment’s fuel costs are hedged until the end of the year.

Notably, hake catch volumes were down 8% in this business. The stronger rand has been impacting export revenues, so recent rand weakness should help. Another product worth mentioning is squid, where catch volumes are down 40%.

Moving on to Fishmeal and Fish Oil (Africa), production volumes fell by a nasty 80% for a variety of reasons. Operating losses were higher than in the prior period. Inventory levels are down 74% vs. the prior period.

In Fishmeal and Fish Oil (USA), this period saw just one month of operations during this period under review. Sales volumes were up 7.7% vs. the prior period, but selling prices were much lower – average fish oil prices were down 45%! Along with the strong rand, this put pressure on the financial results. Inventory levels increased 25% in this business.

As usual, there’s plenty of volatility at segmental level. Lucky Star seems to regularly save the day!


PSG Financial Services remains a strong growth story (JSE: KST)

The power of distribution continues to shine through

At PSG Financial Services, they don’t sit around and wait for assets to come to them. The company has a powerful distribution network, which means they are actively growing their asset base all the time.

The benefit of this is clear in the numbers. For the year ended February 2026, the company expects HEPS and recurring HEPS to increase by between 32% and 35%.

If you exclude performance fees, the growth would be 24% to 27%.

These are exceptional numbers, with full results due for release on 16 April.


Thungela has swung into losses (JSE: TGA)

The dividend per share is down by a whopping 69%

If you’re going to buy cyclical stocks with exposure to a single commodity, then you need to be prepared for a rollercoaster ride. Thungela is the perfect example of this phenomenon.

Revenue for the year ended December 2025 fell by 17% vs. the prior year. This led to adjusted EBITDA margin plummeting from 18% to 4.1%. HEPS never really stood a chance, with Thungela now reporting a loss of -R6.47 per share vs. positive HEPS of R25.59 in the prior period.

The dividend per share has dropped from R13.00 to just R4.00.

The cash story isn’t much better, with adjusted operating free cash flow down by 89% to just R396 million. Net cash on the balance sheet has decreased by 42% to R5 billion.

There aren’t many highlights for investors, but credit must go to the company for the metrics that are within its control. For example, saleable production of 13.9Mt was ahead of guidance (12.6Mt to 13.6Mt). In Australia, export saleable production of 4.0Mt was at the upper-end of guidance (3.7Mt to 4.1Mt).

Importantly, the FOB cost per export tonne was better than the guided range in South Africa and Australia.

As a further highlight, Transnet Freight Rail delivered improved rail performance of 56.8Mt, much better than 51.9Mt.

Now if only coal prices would play ball, as there isn’t much that Thungela can do in a period where export coal prices fell by 20% in South Africa and 17% in Australia.

How do you treat Thungela in your portfolio?

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Thungela: what's your strategy?

How do you participate in Thungela?


Vukile Property Fund is delivering solid results for investors (JSE: VKE)

They are on track to meet guidance

Vukile has certainly been busy in Iberia, with significant asset rotation in Spain. This is to position the portfolio with dominant assets in Spain’s three largest cities. They’ve also been recycling capital in South Africa, where the portfolio is exposed to fast-growing lower-income areas.

In a pre-close update for the year ending March 2026, Vukile has confirmed that they expect to meet guidance of at least 9% growth in both funds from operations (FFO) per share and the dividend per share. This is good news!

In the South African portfolio, they expect like-for-like growth in net operating income of 10.1%. They are enjoying 5.1% growth in trading density, positive reversions of 3.5%, steady vacancies at 1.7% and contractual escalations that look favourable vs. inflation.

The rural and township portfolios have particularly impressive vacancy rates of just 0.4% and 0.8% respectively.

Fascinatingly, bottle stores experienced a 7.1% decline in trading density. Perhaps people really are drinking less these days? Health and Beauty dipped by 3.7%, so it could just be a consumer affordability thing. 11 out of 14 retail categories showed growth in turnover and trading densities.

In Spain and Portugal, the Castellana portfolio enjoyed footfall growth of 3.3% and sales growth of 4.1%. Leading activity is strong and so are the positive reversions.

The loan-to-value as at 31 March 2026 is expected to be around 42% based on their expectations of when transactions will close.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A non-executive director of Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) bought shares worth R900k.
    • Des de Beer has bought R485k worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE). In case you’re new here, I mention him by name because he buys shares in the company so often!
    • An executive director of Momentum (JSE: MTM) has bought shares worth R355k.
    • A senior executive at Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN) bought shares worth R170k.
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) has completed the well drilling for Phase 1 of the Renergen helium project four months ahead of schedule. The words “ahead of schedule” will be very foreign to anyone who has prior experience with Renergen! It clearly helps to have access to the balance sheet and expertise at ASP Isotopes. Recent drilling has delivered much better results than in the earlier wells. They now feel confident that they can meet or exceed Phase 1’s nameplate capacity. As an aside, ASP Isotopes points out that Qatar produces between 25% and 33% of the world’s helium. Although Renergen can’t take advantage of a spike in prices at the moment, they can certainly remind investors that there are good geopolitical reasons why South Africa should become a major helium producer.
  • Zeder (JSE: ZED) announced that circular for the Category 1 disposal of Zaad Holdings is expected to be posted to shareholders on 31 March 2026. For reference, the Firm Intention Announcement was released on 3 February 2026.
  • After various further acquisitions of shares, AttBid now has 9.42% in RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH). Together with Atterbury Property Fund, this takes the aggregate stake to 42.19%.
  • Sun International (JSE: SUI) has received approval from the SARB for the special dividend of 100 cents per share. The payment date is 13 April.
  • Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) is putting steps in place to enable the company to pay dividends. This includes reducing the share premium account and increasing the distributable reserves. Perhaps more importantly, investors should also keep an eye on dilution – the company is seeking authority to issue shares and remove pre-emption rights for existing shareholders. A circular has been posted to shareholders.
  • It may surprise you to learn that Anglo American (JSE: AGL) has a listing on the SIX Swiss Exchange. And since nobody actually knew this, it won’t surprise you to learn that they’ve decided to get rid of that listing. I think being listed in Johannesburg, London and Toronto is quite enough, not to mention the American Depository Receipts planned for New York.
  • If you’re interested in understanding more about Omnia (JSE: OMN), you could refer to the presentation they delivered at the 9th Annual Avior Corporate Summit. You’ll find the pack here.

Ghost Stories #97: From mechanical work to judgement in portfolio management – reallocating human effort with AI

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

At Forvis Mazars in South Africa, the team is actively working on AI-driven solutions for clients.

Shane Cooper (Head of Digital Advisory) is spearheading this effort, with one of the applications of this technology being in the portfolio management space. Institutional investors with complex structures face multiple challenges in managing their investments. As Shane explains in this podcast, it’s an operating model problem rather than a software problem – but AI can help.

Rishi Juta (Director of Corporate Finance) joined this discussion to deliver insight into real-world applications across due diligence and risk management. It’s all about transforming unstructured data and commentary into useful information for decision-making.

This is an excellent introduction to the technology that Forvis Mazars in South Africa is developing for institutional clients.

Topics covered in this podcast:

  • The shift from mechanical work to judgement work – and why it changes the entire process of portfolio oversight.
  • Why unstructured data (like management commentary and board‑pack narratives) often tells you more than the numbers.
  • How “intelligent ingestion” lets AI chew through PDFs, emails, scans, and commentary like a grown‑up sorting out a toddler’s plate of vegetables.
  • Early‑warning risk signals across a portfolio: covenant pressure, reporting behaviour, management tone, governance drift, sector stress and more.
  • How this tech is being built specifically for regulated environments – IFRS, GRAP, scenario planning, traceability, explainability and all the governance that institutions actually need.
  • Why large‑scale portfolios guarantee that humans will miss something – and how an AI layer can stop the rot early, while still taking advantage of having a human in the loop.

If you would like to learn more about this technology, connect with Shane Cooper or Rishi Juta on LinkedIn. For more information on AI-specific applications, you’ll find Shane’s contact details on the Forvis Mazars website.

Full Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to the Ghost Stories podcast. Let me tell you, it is going to be properly interesting today, because we are going to learn all about a real-world AI solution. Drumroll please. Exciting, right? 

We keep reading about AI all over the headlines, the internet, and social media, and all over the place. And today we’re going to get close to a homegrown South African solution. Quite exciting.

Let me tell you what it’s trying to do before I introduce you to our guests. So here’s the key issue. Let me paint this picture for you. 

You have these huge institutions, and they manage large and complex portfolios in a (usually) quite cumbersome manner. Not because they want to, but that’s just because it’s the way these things practically tend to happen.

Large teams of people running in different directions, having all kinds of conversations with investee companies, obviously of varying quality and on different topics and with different levels of engagement. Not necessarily a huge amount of consistency.

And then it’s quite difficult to pull everything together for credit meetings. If this is starting to resonate with you, then you’ve spent some time in large institutional investing or in advisory. Investment reporting certainly puts pressure on the value chain as well.

I’ve seen this in practice. I know that many listeners to this podcast will be familiar with this world. 

And what is interesting is that there is a better way to do it – there’s a way to actually take advantage of some pretty cutting-edge technology. AI, of course. But AI is really just a means to an end, right? What matters is how you use it, what you build and why you’re doing it. 

Now, to help us understand that properly today, I’m happy to bring back a familiar voice to Ghost Mail readers and to Ghost Stories listeners. You may remember Shane Cooper from Forvis Mazars in South Africa. 

He is the head of digital advisory, and he did a podcast with me last year on international use cases for AI. The man is building what he’s talking about here. He’s not just commenting on what other people have done. He has put something together at Forvis Mazars that we’ll learn about today. 

Also joining us today is Rishi Juta. Rishi is the Director of Corporate Finance at Forvis Mazars in South Africa. So he certainly knows his way around due diligences, valuations, and structuring of corporate transactions. 

Shane, Rishi, welcome to the show. Thank you for doing this. I’m pretty excited to learn more about it.

Shane Cooper: Thank you, Ghost. Great to be back.

Rishi Juta: Great, Ghost.

The Finance Ghost: All right, Shane, let’s start with you. You call this an operating model problem. Interesting. Not a software problem. I’ve seen this word come up in some of the discussions we’ve had.

Just for the record, I’ve actually been shown the system and it’s pretty interesting. 

So, Shane, not a software problem, an operating model problem. What do you mean by that? What are you actually trying to say about the state of play out there, and why do you think this product is important?

Shane Cooper: Most institutions do not actually suffer from a total absence of software. I think that’s clear. They suffer from the way the work gets done across the chain, from data coming in, to decisions going out. 

So if you look inside a lot of organisations, especially institutions managing complex portfolios, the real pain is not that there is no reporting tool or no dashboard somewhere.  There is a plethora of those out there. The real pain is that the operating chain is messy. 

Data arrives late in different formats from different sources with different levels of quality. And we see that teams spend huge amounts of time extracting the numbers, chasing missing submissions, reconciling versions, normalising templates.

Inconsistencies abound!

And of course, the time that you spend assembling packs is crazy, if you think about the cost of the skills that you bring into an organisation relative to what you’re getting out. 

And by the time all of that is done, people are moeg. The reporting cycle has consumed a lot of energy. And then of course, the real question is whether everyone has actually had enough time to think properly. That’s why I call it an operating model problem. 

The bottleneck is not the absence of software. The bottleneck is the way the organisations are structured, which we accept. Too much effort goes into the administrative motion – classic corporate friction – and not enough into interpretation, judgement, challenge or intervention. Doing stuff with the data and creating value out of it. 

For me, for us at Forvis Mazars, we really think that matters more today – because the world has become more complex. Portfolios are data-heavy, your governance expectations are much higher, committees want faster answers. 

And the date itself is not arriving in lovely neat rows and columns. It’s arriving through emails, PDFs, Excel files, commentary packs, scanned documents, classic unstructured formats – and if you’re lucky, you have an API link.

So if the operating model is still based on people manually stitching stuff together, the reality is that every month or quarter, you’re going to hit a ceiling.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I love that. It describes so much experience that I’ve had in my own life in corporate advisory, and all these inefficiencies. And the other point I want to touch on there, that I think is going to come up later in the show and is so important, is the data that comes through in natural language conversations and commentary packs.

You learn more from that, in my opinion, than you do from digging through some of the numbers. 

Certainly, a lot of the numbers are critical, and Rishi is going to tell us about that shortly. But you certainly learn a lot from what management is saying. That’s why investors refer to transcripts, and they try to learn something from that. In private company land, that transcript is a board pack, or it’s a meeting between investors and management. It’s really valuable stuff. 

So Rishi, let’s then move on to how you essentially spend a lot of your time: combing through this private company data, doing due diligence, doing valuations. This is technical work; it’s difficult work. And if the data is not structured nicely or if it comes to you in very poor shape, I imagine it just makes your job that much harder, right? 

So what are some of the challenges that you end up seeing in practice, as you’re doing your day-to-day stuff in the corporate finance team there at Forvis Mazars?

Rishi Juta: Thanks, Ghost. Well, I think it’s a completely different world and I don’t think people fully appreciate just how different it is until they’ve actually worked in it. 

When you’re dealing with public company data, you at least have some scaffolding around you. There’s a market price, there are standard disclosures, there is analyst coverage. There are public filings and there’s broader news flow. And there’s actually some degree of structure in the information released. It may not be perfect, but it is a framework. 

In private company work, especially in due diligence and valuation environments, much of that scaffolding disappears. What you get instead is a much more fragmented information landscape.

You may get management accounts, but they come in different formats with different definitions. You may get boardbacks, commentary notes, customer concentration, schedules, budget files, cabinet packs, legal papers, strategy decks, email explanations and operational updates. All sitting in different worlds and often speaking different languages, even though they are supposed to be describing the same business. 

That is where unstructured information becomes extremely important. A lot of the real story of a business sits outside the financial statements. It sits in the management commentary in the way issues are described, in how risks are framed, in what gets emphasised, in what keeps recurring, in how operational setbacks are explained, and where the strategic story is consistent over time. 

You can learn a lot from how management talks about working capital, customers, delays, margin pressure, leadership changes, or refinancing conversations. And it’s really interesting what happens over time. One month of commentary is just a piece of narrative. Four or five years of commentary starts to become a data set. Then you can begin to see patterns. 

Is the tone changing? Are there some issues being dressed up in different languages? Are strategic priorities shifting too often? Is management becoming more vague or defensive? Are explanations becoming less specific as pressure builds? Is there a growing gap between the story and the numbers? 

That is why unstructured data should not be treated as background noise. In private company environments, it is often one of the richest sources of early insight, especially when combined with structured financial data.

The challenge, of course, is that most traditional tools are not particularly good at handling that. They are often fine with tables and figures, but not with years of qualitative material that may hold clues about leadership quality, strategic consistency, accountability and emerging risk. 

So the opportunity now is to bring those two worlds together, the structured and unstructured, in a much more useful and governed way.

Shane Cooper: If I could jump in there, Ghost. What we think is particularly useful today is dealing with unstructured data, where portfolio oversight becomes really interesting. It’s not just about the numbers anymore. We often make investments as a broader community in the quality of the leadership. But seldom do you interrogate that pattern of language over time. 

The ability now to keep (as part of your corpus) a history of language, creates some really interesting insight on your investments over time. And this is where unstructured data can become incredibly powerful.

The Finance Ghost: I love the reference to that history of language. That’s exactly right. You can even see it in my world when I’m looking at listed companies and the transcripts. You can see how the management tone moves over time, and it changes. And like you say, Rishi, it becomes more defensive or more vague. 

And obviously, in your day-to-day, you are applying professional judgements. That’s why people are hiring you to say, “Listen, please do a due diligence, come back to us with some kind of recommendation based on how you see this thing”. And so you’ve got to do that anyway. 

But you’ve got to do that whether the data arrives and it’s very messy (and it’s a huge menial task to actually get on top of it) or whether it’s a bit easier to get to that point, and then you can actually spend more time thinking, which I guess is the overarching point of AI at the end of the day. 

But Shane, maybe coming back to you on this, the model is only as good as the data that it gets, right? And that’s the reality. And the way it’s been built, and the way it’s been trained, and all those things about AI that are interesting. 

There’s something that I read in a piece you wrote that talks about “intelligent ingestion”, which feels like something I’d like you to teach my toddlers about their vegetables. But I think that’s a very different context. This is intelligent ingestion of data by these models.

What does that actually practically mean? Because this is where the rubber starts to hit the road, right? On what these models actually do. AI, it’s just two letters. It’s a small little term, and yet it’s this incredible technology that has all these elements to it, and this is one of them.

Shane Cooper: The simple idea is this. “Intelligent ingestion” is the process of taking very messy incoming information and turning it into something usable, something that’s structured, that’s governed, and that’s even decision-ready. And you don’t have to rely on armies of people to get it manually done every time. 

So in a normal institutional environment, your data doesn’t arrive in one perfect stream. As we’ve already said, between Rishi and I in the early part of this discussion, it arrives in various forms. Typically email, and normally in the email, the attachments of PDF, Excel, whatever. These inconsistent formats create a huge challenge for data ingestion. 

If you want a coherent view of your portfolio, the first problem is not the final dashboard. The problem is getting all of that raw data into a state where it can be trusted and used. 

So intelligent ingestion is about using technology like document processing, parsing, classification, automation; some RPA built in if you really want to. And then you apply machine learning rules, engines and AI to recognise what has come in. 

Step number one: you need to recognise what comes in, identify what kind of document it is, and then extract the relevant information. And then you map it into a canonical structure. So there is some upfront work that’s required to ensure that the mapping is correct. 

But relative to time that you’d spend over a longer period, this is an investment well worth going through, and then capturing the narrative parts as well as the numerical part. So normally with ingestion, historically you just capture stuff that could be deemed to be structured, and normally that’s numerical. Now you have this amazing ability with AIs to fully ingest unstructured information. 

You do apply some validation checks. We still like to refer to “human in the loop”, just to make sure that you’re 100% certain that the data is transferring correctly. And then for anything that is uncertain or anomalous, you can request a human review as part of your process. 

Now, the last point is important, because we don’t want to pretend that everything comes through magically clean. But from what I’ve seen over the last three months in particular, the technology has moved on significantly. So the point really is to automate the repetitive grind. And then you want to let people focus on the exceptions where judgement is required, and of course, interpretation. 

The analogy around a toddler eating vegetables is something like this. You’re faced with a plate of peas, carrots, broccoli and chaos. The toddler doesn’t see nutrition; it sees some level of betrayal, if you’re anything like me. 

The Finance Ghost: Poison and toxins!

Shane Cooper: Exactly. The intelligent ingestion is basically the grown-up equivalent of taking the vegetables, chopping them properly and sorting them, mixing them to something more useful, and then removing the obviously terrible bits. And deciding what can be eaten safely, and what still needs adult intervention. 

Now, in the portfolio world, which is really why we are here talking about this, instead of broccoli in the trauma, it’s the management accounts, the commentary, the covenant packs, the risk notes. Those things traditionally were all very manual in terms of how you would handle them. 

Now what the system does is (in terms of what we’ve designed)(especially in the unlisted environment, because your information is not that well organised) it helps sort the mess. It extracts what matters, it flags what looks wrong, and then it creates a consistent information base that can actually support the analysis. 

And where this becomes economically important is that if you don’t solve for ingestion, then all of your expensive people spend their time opening files, moving numbers, fixing mappings, and checking versions. It’s not anywhere near high-value work. 

So once you industrialise this ingestion, you properly unlock the rest of the chain. Better reporting, faster ratio calculations, earlier risk identifications, essentially the stuff that you really want to be focusing on. 

The Finance Ghost: That makes a world of sense.I do enjoy the leaning on the toddler example. So thank you. I think that actually makes it clearer. Sometimes you just need to get this very visual representation to be like, “Okay, that actually does make sense”. So thank you. I like that. 

So far, we’ve talked about how, in private company land, the data is going to come in a way that is messy. We accept this. A lot of it is going to be natural language, a lot of it is going to be discussions, maybe even be emails. Who knows? Anything that is just natural language.

That, for me, in my very layman’s understanding of AI, is where AI is so different to the world we’ve come from. It can actually read and then summarise properly, in theory at least, and come up with some pretty cool insights. 

So I can understand how this machine is just creating more data across a portfolio, and feeding it into this AI model. But of course what really counts is what comes out the other side and what we can do with it. 

So Rishi, I’m going to bring it back to you here because now we’re stepping back into your world.

You’ve already mentioned some of the issues around the data that comes in a private company. I think as Shane has explained to us, maybe it is really just chopping up the carrots and the peas, and just getting it to a point where this toddler’s going to eat it. Now it’s your job to eat it, right? 

Sorry for using you as the toddler in this analogy, but unfortunately, it’s about the closest we can really get here [laughs]. Maybe we’ll make you the parent; we’ll think of an innovative way. 

But the underlying principle is that there needs to be a point to all of this, and that point needs to address a client’s need. Now we’ve got financial investors, we’ve got DFIs, we’ve got institutions. They all have nuanced investment philosophies. One might be purely for profit, others might be impact investing, and they’ll have different kinds of metrics and everything else. 

I feel like it all comes down to measurement and risk. At the end of the day, that feels to me like what it really comes down to. In your eyes, how does this technology make that whole process better, from the perspective of the clients and what they’re looking for?

Rishi Juta: Thanks Ghost. I think that’s exactly the right way to frame it, because once you strip away the jargon, the real issue is risk, and the ability to make good decisions early enough for that decision to still matter. 

Different institutions absolutely do have different philosophies. A purely commercial investor may be focused more narrowly on return, downside protection and exit value. A DFI may also be thinking about development, impact, mandate alignment, policy relevance, governance and long-term sustainability. 

But in all cases, you still need a way of converting a messy information environment into a usable view of risk. What this kind of technology does, is give you a much stronger risk measurement and decision support layer. 

It allows you to bring together structural financial information, covenant positions, operational indicators, management commentary, reporting behaviour, and external signals into one environment.

That matters because real-world risk is rarely one dimensional. It is not just one ratio moving. It is often a combination of deterioration in the numbers, changes in management tone, missed reporting deadlines, governance drift, sector pressure, and weakening narrative consistency. 

So from a risk perspective, the benefit is that you can start seeing patterns much earlier. You can move from static, retrospective reporting into a more dynamic view. You can assess not only where an investor is today, but how it is trending, how close it is to stress, what the pressure points are and whether the warning signals are financial, operational, behavioural, or external. 

And that becomes especially useful in environments where early intervention matters. If you wait until the business is already in serious distress, the room for recovery is much smaller. 

But if you can identify signs of covenant pressure, cash strain, operational slippage or management inconsistency early, you have a much better chance of engaging management, challenging assumptions and pushing a remedial program where there is still an opportunity. 

It also helps because risk is not just about the business. It’s about leadership quality, execution, as well as discipline. If the qualitative material over time is showing strategic inconsistency, repeated excuses, declining clarity or weak accountability, that is relevant. Good risk management should be able to consider that, not just the income statement.

The real value here is that it gives institutions a more complete and more timely picture of risk. It supports better prioritisation, faster escalation, and more confident decision-making.

Shane Cooper: What I would add to that, Ghost, is that the covenant intelligence provides very useful information, because once the data lands, you instantly have your covenant position, your key ratios, and then of course your distance to breach, which is useful information. 

The second is the early warning triggers. Those go well beyond pure covenant maths. They have to include things like reporting delays, management churn, sector stress, and adverse news, especially in today’s challenging economic environment. Those are all the signals that help you stop the rot early, rather than only documenting the distress after the fact. 

And the reason why we feel strongly about this is that very few companies come back from deep formal distress gracefully. For us, the real leverage here is this earlier engagement, the earlier challenge and early remediation.

The Finance Ghost: So the way I like to think about it is, I listen to all of this, and I know that when you have smart people working on your portfolio and on your due diligence, if they have a relatively small number of data points to look at, chances are very good that they will pick this stuff up. I think we accept that. And even then, there’s a risk that they won’t, because human error is part of it. 

Shane, in that podcast we did last year, you pointed out some really cool use cases internationally, where some of the best engineers in the world are using AI because of the human error factor, and because the AI rules-based approach catches a lot of that stuff. So even on a relatively small data set, human error is a risk. 

But when you get to a huge portfolio (and here we’re talking institutional level applications, really) and you’ve got multiple portfolio companies, lots of different board packs all the time, you’re getting inundated with this stuff, you’re looking at new investments all the time where you have to make really good decisions – it’s basically a guarantee you’re going to miss something, right? When you’re managing a portfolio like this, it’s just a reality.

So this is where this AI model steps in and says, “Listen, we can give you the early warning triggers”. And like you say, it still needs a human in the loop and someone who can apply that judgement to it. 

Rishi, when you’re working on that due diligence, you’re applying judgement to what’s coming out of it. But if there’s a tool that gives you a better way to catch everything, or at least to get closer to catching absolutely everything, that can only be a benefit. 

That really does feel very sensible to me. And again, I’ve had the benefit of actually seeing the product.

So I would encourage people who are listening to this, if you think this is interesting, speak to the team. Because actually seeing the stuff is pretty cool. It really does help you visualise. “Oh, this is interesting. This is very colorful”. This dashboard shows you, across all these different names, where it might be going wrong, where it’s not, where it’s already in breach, where it has a high probability of breach, and all those kinds of things. Which I do enjoy.

And Shane, I’m going to come back to you here, because I can see these use cases. If someone is listening to this and going, “Oh, I’m not sure what this is for”, then I would be so bold as to say it’s probably not for you because you haven’t lived these problems. These problems exist. 

So if you’re listening to this and going, “Oh my goodness, that sounds like my life”, then this is for you. The point is that it just takes away a lot more of that menial work. Both of you have already alluded to that. And it gives you more time to actually do something with the outputs, right? 

I just want to throw it back to you, Shane, for some commentary on that. Is that the theme that keeps coming through in how these AI solutions are really adding value in companies? Because I’m certainly seeing that a lot, when I read company narratives about AI projects and what they’re doing.

Shane Cooper: That’s exactly the point, but I’d phrase it slightly more carefully – the value of AI is not just that it saves time, the real value is that it reallocates human effort from low-value mechanical work to high-value judgement work.

And that shift is really important. The additional benefit is that it can do for you, what, as a human being, you were never capable of doing before. 

As human beings, we’re not put together to understand large data sets and to make connections and correlations that may not appear to you at first glance. So applying AI to huge data sets is extremely powerful.

In a lot of institutions today – (you would know this, Rishi knows this, I know this) – very smart people are spending way too much time on report preparation. Pulling numbers together, checking templates. There are lots of memes about how PowerPoint and Excel essentially run the world. Reconciling versions, writing commentary from scratch, chasing updates. Seriously heavy administrative burdens that we take on in our professional capacities on a daily and weekly basis. 

It’s useful in that it has to get done. But that’s not where the biggest value lies. The real value sits in asking what the numbers mean, why are they changing? What risks are forming? Where is the portfolio the most exposed? Which companies need intervention? What should management be focusing on? What scenario should be modeled and what should the next decisions be? 

Very often in today’s corporate world, you don’t get enough time to handle those conversations. Now you do. So AI and automation should absolutely take away a large portion of the grind.

Intelligent ingestion certainly helps, automated calculation certainly helps, and even the report generation (certainly, at first pass, that breaking of the white space) really does help. 

The biggest story is that once you have a governed base of structured information, AI can also help with anomaly detection, pattern recognition, peer comparisons, and correlation studies with data that you’d never have potentially brought into your data set. And, of course, propensity analysis, which is for me extremely useful based on the unstructured data that you’ve now brought in. 

The platform is not just helping produce a report faster, it’s helping you interrogate the report better. It can surface unusual movements, non-obvious patterns, combinations of signals that may indicate emerging stress, and then areas where human attention should absolutely go first. 

Now, where it gets super exciting for me, is exactly in this point – because the end state is not just a faster reporting machine. The end state is a better decision environment. And I think that’s particularly important in the institutional world because the cost of late insight can be very high. 

If a team spends most of the cycle preparing the pack, and only a small slice of the cycle time thinking about it, then the organisation is structurally late. Now if you flip that, the report comes together much faster. The signals are therefore surfaced much earlier and the anomalies are highlighted automatically. 

And then your conversation changes completely. You get more time to challenge management, more time for scenario thinking, and more time for proper engagement. That’s where it allows for intervention before things go properly sideways. 

So yes, less time reporting, more time doing something more useful with the outputs. And that’s exactly the ambition. 

I would add one more thing. It’s not just more thinking, it’s better-timed thinking. In a portfolio environment where you are managing risk, timing is often everything.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I really like that. Judgement work versus mechanical work. I think that’s exactly the point. It’s not just the time saving, it’s what you can do with that time and where you can spend your time. So, very cool. 

Rishi, I’m going to bring it back to you. Maybe last question in your direction. Something else that I understand about this product. Again, this has been built by Forvis Mazars, which I will remind everyone is a proper professional services firm. 

A lot of the work you do is technical. So when you guys are putting together an AI-type product, it is with that application in mind. Stuff like scenario planning, but also IFRS, generally recognised accounting practice standards, all that kind of work. 

There are applications here of this technology, right? Would it be fair to say that it’s been built for regulated environments?

Rishi Juta: Thanks, Ghost. Yes, that’s the essence of it. The point is not to build something flashy for loosely governed environments. The point is to build something that actually stands up inside serious institutional settings where control, traceability, governance and explainability matter. 

Once you’re operating in those kinds of environments, whether it’s a financial institution, a DFI, or another regulated entity, you quickly realise that speed on its own is not enough. 

You need speed with discipline. You need to know where the data came from. How it was transformed, what was validated automatically, what needed intervention, what assumptions were applied, what changed over time, and how you would evidence that to internal audit, external audit, or regulators if required. 

That is where the more technical applications become important. Scenario planning is a good example. If you have a governed data layer and the ability to integrate external data, you can do much more meaningful stress-testing and sensitivity analysis. You’re not just looking at static history, you are looking at how the portfolio behaves under different scenarios, sector shocks, liquidity conditions or broader market stress. 

Then you bring in things like IFRS 9 and GRAP 104. The point is not that the platform replaces professional judgement or accounting standards, but it gives you a much stronger information base for those processes. 

If you already have governed data, historical patterns, covenant status, commentary and external signals in one environment, then your credit assessment, impairment thinking, expected credit loss and related reporting become much more robust and much faster. This has clearly been conceived for environments where governance is not optional; it’s part of the operating DNA.

The Finance Ghost: Shane, maybe if we then bring it home with you. Who do you want to be speaking to this product about, at this stage in its development journey? 

I understand you guys have made a lot of progress already. I’ve seen it myself. I would imagine it’s at the period now where you are open to conversations with particular clients who are maybe looking for solutions like these. 

So perhaps just to bring us home, if someone could phone you two minutes after they listen to this podcast or perhaps send you an email, who would you want that person to be? What are the conversations you want to be having?

Shane Cooper: I think it would be any executive who is sitting in an asset management or a DFI environment, who’s experiencing corporate pain at the moment. It’s the visibility of your portfolio. Are you uncomfortable with the degree to which you manage risk in your portfolio? We’ve got a solution for you.

The Finance Ghost: Very nice. I like that. 

Gentlemen, I’m going to leave it there. I think this is pretty exciting, and again, I’ll remind listeners that this is a software solution being built by Forvis Bazaars. So congratulations to the team on that side. I think this is quite innovative and probably somewhat unique within these professional services environments. 

I really like what I saw in the demo that you showed me. Obviously, it’s still in development, but there’s a lot of cool thinking there, some great visualisations, and I can see the use case. 

So I will include in the show notes ways for people to contact both of you. 

From my side, good luck with the ongoing development of this thing. AI is such a fast-moving space that I suspect we’ll be checking in on this technology in a few months to come, perhaps. Hopefully, by then it’s already being used in some really exciting applications. 

So Shane, Rishi, thank you very much for your time today and good luck with the ongoing development of this thing.

Shane Cooper: Thank you Ghost, great to be with you again.

Rishi Juta: Thanks Ghost.

Ghost Bites (Hulamin | Labat Africa | Premier | The Foschini Group | York Timber)

Hulamin made losses in 2025 (JSE: HLM)

The situation is much worse than initially thought

When a trading statement talks about a move of “at least 20%”, then you need to be very careful. This is the minimum requirement under JSE Listings Requirements, so the move could actually be much worse than 20%.

The idea is that companies must release a trading statement when they have a high degree of certainty that the move will exceed 20%. They must also update the market when they have a better idea of the range.

Hulamin gives us a perfect example of this in practice. In December 2025, they released a trading statement flagging a drop of at least 20% in HEPS for the year ended December 2025. The narrative made it clear that it was a particularly ugly year, with operational challenges at the mill in the aftermath of an integrated plant shutdown.

But now we know exactly how bad things got, as a further trading statement notes that they’ve actually swung into a deeply loss-making position. The normalised headline loss per share was -25 cents to -31 cents, a huge swing from profits of 55 cents per share in the prior period.

The prior period numbers have been restated based on the classification of Extrusions as a discontinued operation.

The share price fell more than 10% on the day. It’s now down 27% over six months.


Labat Africa to acquire the rest of Ahnamu Investments (JSE: LAB)

Someone is getting a great deal here – but who?

Labat Africa has agreed to acquire the remaining 49% in Ahnamu Investments from Humza Khan, an unrelated party. This comes after they acquired 51% of Ahnamu in a deal announced in March 2025.

Labat also announced that the seller of the original 51% in Ahnamu, Christopher Mark Govender, has disposed of his full holding of 200 million shares in Labat (roughly 12% of the total shares in issue).

Labat will be paying for the remaining 49% through the issuance of new Labat shares worth R40 million. We will have to see how long Khan decides to keep them!

Ahnamu is an ICT solutions provider operating across the SADC region. In the nine months ended November 2025, the company had net assets of R185.1 million and profit after tax of R41.9 million.

You may recall the recent announcement regarding Ahnamu’s relationship with Shafi Incorporated. This is a five-year supply and services agreement with an estimated run-rate of R200 million per annum in revenue. This should give a significant further boost to the financial performance.

But here’s the thing: the price just makes absolutely no sense.

Ahnamu has annualised profit of roughly R56 million – and that’s before we even take the new supply agreement into account. Labat paying R40 million for 49% implies a value of R81.6 million for 100% of Ahnamu. Or, put differently, a Price/Earnings multiple of less than 1.5x.

Someone here is getting the deal of a lifetime. Let’s hope it’s the Labat shareholders.


Excellent earnings growth at Premier (JSE: PMR)

Mid-single digit revenue growth seems to be all they need

Premier Group continues to do a fantastic job of driving earnings growth, despite only relatively modest revenue growth.

In a trading statement for the year ending March 2026, the company noted that HEPS has grown by between 20% and 30%. This is an exceptional outcome, particularly as it was achieved with revenue growth of only mid-single digits.

Deflation in global grain prices has put downward pressure on revenue growth, with Premier expecting that situation to continue. Although this drives higher volumes (as the products are more affordable for consumers), it requires the company to run as efficiently as possible.

The Aeroton mega-bakery has been commissioned and is expected to drive further efficiencies and scale benefits in the inland region.

The acquisition of RFG Holdings is expected to be completed by 30 March 2026. This trading statement excludes anything to do with the accounting for that transaction.

I really hope that the acquisition won’t prove to be a mistake. The two companies have such different earnings profiles. When they are combined, investors won’t be able to choose one or the other anymore.

It’s also worth noting that Premier repurchased 1.4% of its issued shares for R323 million during March 2026.

With the deal about to close, what are your thoughts on the Premier – RFG combination?

164
Premier + RFG: ready for a new era?

What are your thoughts on this deal?


The Foschini Group flags a HEPS decline of at least 20% (JSE: TFG)

Just how bad will it be?

The Foschini Group has released a trading update for the 50 weeks ended 14 March 2026. This is just a couple of weeks short of the full financial year, so the group also feels confident enough to release a trading statement dealing with the 12 months to March 2026.

The fourth quarter of the year has been better than the earlier periods in TFG Africa, as the two-pot withdrawal impact was much lighter in Q4’25 than in Q3’25. Base effects make a big difference in retail.

Q4’26 sales growth currently sits at 7.6%, which is significantly better than the year-to-date growth rate of 5.2%.

Encouragingly, gross margin has now normalised. It’s not enough to make up for the pain earlier in the year, so management is asking investors to focus on exit velocity (the performance at the end of the period – a measure of momentum) rather than the full-year numbers. In practice, investors will look at both concepts.

Looking abroad, TFG London has only managed growth of 0.4% year-to-date excluding White Stuff. If we isolate Q4, which includes White Stuff in the base, growth was 3.4%. This confirms that White Stuff is achieving decent growth, with pro-forma sales growth of 5.2% year-to-date in that business.

TFG Australia has little in the way of good news. Q4 sales have been flat, while the year-to-date situation is a decrease in sales of 1.4% (in local currency).

Of course, such tepid revenue performance is nowhere near enough to protect profitability. In a previous trading statement, the group noted an expected decline in earnings per share of at least 20%. They’ve now confirmed that HEPS will also decline by at least 20%.

Be very careful of wording like “at least 20%” – as you will see in the York Timber example below, the words “at least” can work very hard.


A less-than-ideal day for York Timber (JSE: YRK)

A trading statement paints an ugly picture – and the CEO is leaving

Earlier in March, York Timber released a trading statement that indicated HEPS growth of between 1.82% and 6.78% for the six months to December 2025. In an updated trading statement, they suddenly expect HEPS to drop by between 50.18% and 52.49%.

What on earth is going on here?

The first important point is that the guided HEPS range for the latest period is unchanged in the updated trading statement (still 14.57 cents to 15.28 cents). The change is to the base period, where HEPS was restated from 14.31 cents to 30.67 cents – this explains why the percentage move has changed so much. They will give full details on this in the earnings release on 31 March.

As if this wasn’t weird enough, shareholders were also asked to stomach the news of York CEO, Gabriël Stoltz, resigning from the role with effect from 31 March 2026. That’s an almost immediate departure, which is never a good sign.

Stoltz has been there since 2017, first as the CFO and then as the CEO in 2022. He’s agreed to make himself available to the group during a transition period on an as-needed basis.

A replacement CEO hasn’t been announced at this stage.

The share price fell 8.2% on the day. Here’s the kicker though: the news about the CEO only came out when markets were closed. The market move was only in response to the trading statement, not the sudden change in leadership.

Hold on to your hats with this one!


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A director of Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) bought shares worth R7.3 million.
    • An independent non-executive director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth R62k.
  • There is limited liquidity in the stock of South Ocean Holdings (JSE: SOH), so I’ll just mention the results for the year ended December 2025 down here. Revenue fell by only 3%, yet operating profit tanked by 86%. This is what happens in a business with paper-thin margins. HEPS fell by 70% to just 6.81 cents. Ouch.
  • Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) is catching up on its financial reporting. This is why the company has released a trading statement dealing with the year ended March 2025 – and no, that isn’t a typo! HEPS has swung strongly positive, coming in at between 0.5 cents and 4.0 cents vs. the headline loss of 111.91 cents in the year ended March 2024. It looks like the 2025 financials will be released within the next week.

The man who would rule 7,000 robotic vacuums

A harmless side project resulted in an unexpected glimpse inside thousands of homes, exposing just how thin the line between ownership and access has become. What started as a geek’s experiment ended as a reminder that the devices we control may not be entirely ours to command.

When Spanish software engineer Sammy Azdoufal started messing around with the code of his new robot vacuum cleaner at the start of this year, he did it with the most innocent (and geeky) of intentions. All he wanted was to be able to steer his robot vacuum with a gaming controller, as if it were a dust-sucking remote control car. Fun, right?

It’s the sort of side project that tends to live and die on a GitHub repository, noticed only by a handful of people who appreciate the technical novelty and dedication to a trivial idea. Instead, it ended with Azdoufal accidentally gaining access to thousands of other people’s homes.

And I don’t mean that metaphorically. Because although Azdoufal only wanted to hack his own vacuum cleaner, what he really achieved was unlimited access to 7,000 of them. 

The king of the robovacs

While building the custom controller for his DJI Romo robot vacuum, Azdoufal reportedly used an AI coding assistant to help reverse-engineer how the device communicated with its cloud servers. This line of communication, in itself, is not unusual. Many modern consumer devices are less self-contained machines than they are endpoints in a larger network, constantly talking to remote systems in order to function. Welcome to what’s called the Internet of Things (or IoT for short).

To control his own vacuum, Azdoufal needed to replicate that conversation. He needed credentials – digital proof that he was the rightful owner of the device – so that his app could issue commands and receive data. What he found, however, was not a neatly fenced-off system tied to a single machine. Instead, it was a wide open door.

The same credentials that allowed him to see and control his own robot gave him simultaneous access to nearly 7,000 models of the same robot vacuum across 24 countries. Through what appears to have been a backend security flaw, Azdoufal could access live camera feeds, microphone audio, spatial maps, and status data from devices he did not own and had never interacted with, inside the homes of people he had never met before.

For a brief moment, he had what can only be described as a distributed, global surveillance system, assembled not through malice, but by pure accident.

Azdoufal does the right thing

To his credit, Azdoufal did not treat the discovery as an opportunity.

There is a version of this story that plays out very differently – one where curiosity turns into exploitation. Even if Azdoufal himself didn’t make use of his live feed into strangers’ homes for malicious or criminal purposes, he could have sold that access to others who would. The tools were there. The access was real. And, for a brief moment, it appears to have been largely undetected and unrestricted.

Fortunately, he chose not to go down that path. Instead of probing further, Azdoufal documented what he had found and shared it with journalists, who in turn contacted DJI to report the issue. Following the responsible disclosure, DJI awarded him a $30,000 bug bounty for identifying the vulnerability (a standard industry practice designed to encourage exactly this kind of restraint). 

DJI also made a statement about the incident, saying that it plans to “continue to implement additional security enhancements”, but did not specify what those may entail.

7,000 eyes

The device in question, the DJI Romo, is not especially unusual by robovac standards. It is an autonomous vacuum and mop like so many of its peers, equipped with cameras and sensors that allow it to navigate a home, distinguish between rooms, and avoid obstacles. It can be scheduled and monitored through an app, but most of its work happens independently.

In order to do that work, however, it needs to “see”. It needs to collect visual data about its environment, build maps, identify surfaces, acclimatise to its owner’s routines and update its understanding as the home changes. Some of that data is processed locally, but a significant portion is sent to and stored on remote servers.

In other words, the vacuum you bought to clean your floors is also, by necessity, a device that continuously documents the layout, contents and rhythm of your home and communicates that information to a server, probably hosted on a cloud somewhere. 

This is not a hidden feature. It is simply part of what we accept as the cost of convenience.

The illusion of ownership

If you went out and bought a robot vacuum today, you would assume that you own it.

After all, you paid for it. It sits in your home, charging itself using your electricity. It responds to your commands. It cleans your floors on a schedule you set. Ownership, in the traditional sense, seems straightforward. And yet, in practice, that ownership comes with conditions, as we’ve now learned. This is not unique to robot vacuums. In fact, if we look closely, we may spot a pattern that has reshaped consumer technology over the past decade.

Printers, for instance, increasingly rely on subscription models that can limit functionality if payments lapse. Features that once belonged to the physical device are now tied to ongoing subscription services. Stop paying, and the machine you “own” may be remotely deactivated. Despite owning the hardware, the paper and the ink required, you may find yourself unable to print a single page.

Smartphone updates are often framed as improvements. And, in many cases, they are. They patch security flaws, introduce new features, and extend the lifespan of devices that might otherwise become obsolete. In theory, an update is something you receive. In practice, it is something that happens to your device – sometimes with your consent, sometimes with only the appearance of it.

Over the past few years, several high-profile updates have reminded users of that distinction.

In the first quarter of 2025, Samsung was forced to pause the global rollout of a major Android update after a bug prevented some users from unlocking their own phones. For those affected, the object in their hands – a device they had paid for and relied on – became temporarily inaccessible because of a software change they didn’t ask for, which was delivered completely remotely.

Even when updates don’t break functionality outright, they can still disrupt the familiarity that makes a device feel like yours. Apple’s more recent iOS releases, for instance, have drawn widespread complaints about changes to core features as basic as typing. Users reported erratic autocorrect, lagging keyboards, and interfaces that behaved differently from one day to the next. These may be small shifts, but they tend to accumulate into a sense that the device you own is being controlled by someone else.

In each of these cases, the same pattern reveals itself. Whether a printer, a phone or a robot vacuum, the physical object is only part of the system. The rest exists elsewhere, in infrastructure that the user does not control.

Ownership, then, becomes something closer to a negotiated experience than a fixed state.

Who’s controlling who?

There is a certain irony in the fact that Azdoufal began with the intention of gaining more direct control over his own device. He wanted to bypass the standard interface and to interact with the machine on his own terms. In trying to take control, he briefly revealed how diffuse that control had become.

It is tempting to treat episodes like this as technical anomalies – bugs to be fixed, patches to be deployed, lessons to be filed away for future engineers. But they also function as glimpses into the underlying architecture of modern life and reminders of what we own, and what we don’t

You can still buy the device. You can still place it in your home. You can still press the button that sets it in motion. But somewhere between that button and the movement of the machine, there is a chain of dependencies that now extends far beyond your walls.

Most of the time, that chain works exactly as intended. Occasionally, as Azdoufal discovered, it does not.

As scary as it may be to contemplate, the outcome of that situation depends on the human who cracks the code, on purpose or otherwise. In this case, it was a good one.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

UNLOCK THE STOCK: Araxi

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.

We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us.

In the 66th edition of Unlock the Stock, Araxi returned to the platform to talk about the recent numbers and the strategic outlook for the business.

I couldn’t make this one, so you are in the capable hands of Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

Watch the recording here:

Ghost Bites (Aspen | Exxaro | Investec | Momentum | Schroder European Real Estate)

Aspen has released the circular for the APAC disposal (JSE: APN)

This is the deal that will massively improve the balance sheet

If you feel like some light reading this weekend, Aspen’s 134-page circular is now available here. They are selling off their operations in Australia and New Zealand, regions that contributed 26% of group EBITDA for the year ended June 2025.

In other words: this is important.

With Aspen having been through tough times recently, the market has welcomed this deal. Not only does it lead to a much stronger balance sheet, but it also allows management to focus on the key initiatives that need to be delivered. This includes driving the GLP-1 business in South Africa, and winning additional manufacturing contracts in France and South Africa to replace the holes that have been left by the loss of contracts.

Aspen is one of the very few South African companies that achieved success in Australasia. They started in the region in 2001. 25 years later, Aspen Australasia is one of the top five OTC companies in Australia by both value and volume. I’m sure they’re sad to see it go, but they can at least celebrate a solid value-creation journey.

The price of R26.5 billion represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11x (on a normalised basis). That’s a decent price.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about this transaction is that they got it done for a cost of R25 million. There’s no massive fee payable to a corporate finance advisor, with RMB only acting as the transaction sponsor. This is less than 0.1% of the deal value. Keep this in mind next time you see a transaction with ridiculous fees!

If everything goes ahead in this transaction, which I’m sure it will, then Aspen will be on much firmer footing going forwards.

But what do you think? Is there more value to be extracted from this story?


Exxaro’s dividend policy makes a difference (JSE: EXX)

There’s a juicy payday for investors

Exxaro has released earnings for the year ended December 2025. The HEPS story was decent in the end, with the dividend as the real highlight.

We begin with the coal business, which generates almost all of the group’s EBITDA.

Exxaro’s total coal production increased by 1% for the year, as did sales. Volumes to Eskom were down 2%, exports were up 2% and other domestic thermal sales increased 28%. Revenue increased by 3% and EBITDA was slightly up.

The renewable energy business had flat revenue due to lower generation. EBITDA came in 17% lower, with cost pressures related to strategic initiatives. Ouch!

Although there was a 16% improvement in corporate costs, it wasn’t enough to avoid group EBITDA dipping by 2% year-on-year. Not only was there the pressure in the energy business, but there were also additional costs related to the manganese acquisition.

Despite what sounds like a rough start to the income statement, HEPS increased by 8%. Equity-accounted investments in iron ore and base metals played an important role here. These come in below the EBITDA line.

Thanks to a revised dividend policy, the final dividend is up 15%! They will now have dividend cover of 1.5x – 2.5x, instead of 2.5x – 3.5x.

Guidance for full year 2026 is coal production and sales of 39.4Mt to 42.8Mt. The midpoint of guidance suggests some improvement from production of 39.9Mt and sales of 39.6Mt in 2025.

There is also a significant expected increase in capital expenditure in coal in 2026 and 2027, so that is going to put pressure on free cash flow after a few years of running below the typical capex levels required to sustain operations.


Only single-digit growth at Investec (JSE: INL | JSE: INP)

They have a lot to do to bring ROE closer to the top of the target range

Investec has delivered a pre-close update for the year ended March 2026. Remember, they report in GBP rather than ZAR, so these are all hard currency returns.

Despite a significant share buyback programme, HEPS will move by between 0% and 2% for the year – so growth is hard to come by. Adjusted earnings per share will be up by between 3% and 6%.

Pre-provision adjusted operating profit will increase by between 3% and 5%. The company has indicated that the credit loss ratio will be within the through-the-cycle range of 25 basis points to 45 basis points. The specifics on that for the full year will be interesting.

If we dig a bit deeper, Southern Africa is expected to be at least 4% up in terms of adjusted operating profit. Return on equity in that business should be around 18%, right in the middle of the medium-term range of 16% to 20%.

As for the UK, adjusted operating profit is expected to be at least flat vs. the prior year. There’s pressure in the banking operations there, specifically in terms of the credit loss ratio. Return on tangible equity (not quite the same as return on equity) should be between 13.3% and 13.7%, right near the bottom of the target range of 13% to 17%.

The UK market is anything but easy at the moment. With Investec so heavily involved in that market, it’s going to be challenging to bring returns up to where they should be.


A tasty jump in the dividend at Momentum (JSE: MTM)

But as we’ve seen across the sector, investment returns have been a drag

Momentum has released results for the six months to December 2025. We will get into the details, but the highlights reel is that normalised HEPS increased by 12% and the dividend per share jumped by 29%. Things are going well.

At the aggregate segmental level, normalised operating profit was up by 9% and normalised investment return increased by 20%. This took normalised headline earnings up by 11%. There are then some group-level adjustments to bring it down to 8%.

How did we get from 8% growth in normalised headline earnings to 12% growth in HEPS? The answer is share buybacks. If there are fewer people eating at the dinner table, there’s more food for each person. Importantly, the repurchases were achieved at a price that reflects an average discount of 17.5% to the embedded value per share.

The recent trend among the life insurers has been one of growth in premiums and pressure on value of new business (VNB). This is due to a change in consumer preferences around product mix. Sure enough, at Momentum, single premiums grew by 12% and VNB fell by 15%. New business margin fell from 0.7% to 0.5%.

For the most part, operating profit increased in the underlying segments.

There are some exceptions, with Momentum Retail as the ugly duckling thanks to various market factors like the yield curve and the spot rate. This is a highly technical space. It’s also worth noting that India’s operating loss was worse than the prior period due to non-recurring gains.

The star of the show was Momentum Investments, where operating profit increased by 38% thanks to various initiatives around product repricing and increases in assets under management. Momentum Africa also deserves a mention, swinging spectacularly from losses to profits. They’ve done a lot of restructuring in that part of the business.

As a final comment, return on equity decreased from 24.6% to 24.0%. The embedded value per share as at December 2025 was R44.55, with the group achieving return on embedded value per share of 14.3%. The market is demanding a lot more, hence the share price trading at R35.70 – a discount to embedded value per share of just under 20%.

Time for more share buybacks?


Schroder European Real Estate declares its first interim dividend (JSE: SCD)

Watch out for the NAV – and especially the tax

Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust has announced its net asset value (NAV) as at 31 December 2025. They’ve also declared their maiden interim dividend of 1.48 euro cents per share.

The NAV return over this period is just 0.8%, with property valuations going sideways.

The portfolio vacancy has increased due to a major departure at a property in the Netherlands, so that’s a worry for earnings. There have been some positive movements in leases elsewhere in the portfolio.

Here’s the risk that I still can’t get my head around: the French Tax Authority has issued an assessment for €14.2 million. The group has appealed the assessment, but they haven’t raised any kind of provision for this amount in the financials. Zero. Nada.

The board might have a strong view that nothing is payable here, but this still seems like an aggressive approach.

There are so many property companies I would buy before this one. But if I was going to invest here, I would at least apply a reasonable haircut to the NAV based on that tax assessment. On a market cap of R1.85 billion, a tax issue of around R275 million is material.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Des de Beer has now opened his wallet properly, buying R22.8 million worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE).
    • The chairman of Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) bought shares worth R668k.
    • An executive director of Libstar (JSE: LBR) bought shares worth R109k.
  • Novus Holdings (JSE: NVS) announced a disposal of properties for R91.7 million. They are in KZN and currently owned by Novus Print, with Mthembu Paper Mill as the lessee. Novus is a shareholder in Mthembu Paper Mill after previously doing a deal with that company, hence the relationship around this property. There’s really no reason for Novus to own the property itself though, so I’m sure shareholders will be happy to see it go. The profit before tax attributable to the letting enterprise was R7.3 million for the year ended March 2025. There are clearly much better uses for the cash.
  • Visual International (JSE: VIS) is looking to raise up to R2 million in cash via a bookbuild. The timing and closing of the bookbuild are at the discretion of the advisors, which is how you know that they aren’t expecting investors to fall over each other in a rush to participate. The bookbuild is in a closed period, so directors may not participate. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens here. Worryingly, the bookbuild is for “working capital requirements while projects come to fruition” – not exactly bullish.

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep123 | Middle East conflict – counting the cost of disruption

Listen to the podcast here:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Investec-banner.jpg

Markets are sending a surprisingly calm signal in the face of escalating conflict with Iran. Oil prices are rising, supply chains are under pressure, and recession risks are quietly ticking higher, yet equities remain relatively steady.

In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Investec experts in SA and the UK – Callum Macpherson, Phil Shaw and Chris Holdsworth – to unpack what’s really at play.

The conversation explores what happens if the conflict drags on for longer, what key indicators markets are watching and what risks to the global economy are already emerging.

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Ghost Bites (Astral Foods | BHP | Ethos Capital | iOCO | Master Drilling | PPC | Sabvest | Vukile Property Fund)

Astral Foods is printing money (JSE: ARL)

Interim HEPS will be through the roof

Astral Foods released a trading update ahead of an important investor conference coming up next week. This is common practice among companies, as it frees them up to discuss the performance in more detail with institutional investors and analysts at the conference.

The trading statement deals with the six months ending March 2026. And what a period it is – HEPS is expected to increase by at least 435%! Or, put differently, HEPS will be at least 5.3x larger (at least R21.88) than in the comparable period (when it was R4.09).

When things go well in poultry, they go extremely well. And in this case, just about everything has been going well.

Volumes and selling prices are up, margins have improved thanks to favourable feed input costs, other costs are under control, and there have been no major business disruptions.

The market knows that HEPS is volatile, hence the share price is up by “only” 61% over 12 months. That’s a great performance, but it obviously trails the percentage move in HEPS.


A new CEO at BHP (JSE: BHG)

Mike Henry moves on after 6.5 years in the role

BHP has announced that Mike Henry will be stepping down from the top job at the company. Having been CEO for 6.5 years, he steered them through the COVID period and its aftermath.

His successor is Brandon Craig, who has more than 25 years of experience at BHP. He is currently President: Americas at BHP, which encompasses the operations in North and South America. This gave him plenty of exposure to copper as the key future metal.

He also previously led the Western Australia Iron Ore business, so there’s plenty of experience here across the key operations in the group.

BHP is the world’s largest mining company, so a new CEO is a big deal. And yes, he’s a South African!

What do you think we will see from BHP over the next few years?


Ethos Capital is in the final stages of its value unlock (JSE: EPE)

There’s just one asset left

Ethos Capital has released results for the six months to December 2025. Due to the specifics of this company, they are far more out of date than you might think!

You see, Ethos Capital is busy monetising its assets and returning the proceeds to shareholders. Much has happened since December 2025, so they also give the net asset value (NAV) per share as at 17 March 2026.

It’s a moving target, as the only remaining asset in the group is a 4.5% indirect stake in Optasia (JSE: OPA) that was retained after the IPO of that company. This means that you could technically work out the NAV per share on a daily basis for Ethos Capital.

As at 17 March 2026, the NAV per share was R7.65. The Ethos share price is trading at roughly a 10% discount to the NAV, reflecting the uncertainty and costs involved in monetising the remaining stake. The post-IPO lock-up is in place until May 2026, so Ethos is stuck until then with the Optasia shares.

It’s almost time for this investment holding company to head off into the sunset.


The turnaround at iOCO continues (JSE: IOC)

I love the way they give earnings guidance

iOCO has a great story to tell at the moment. In the results for the six months ended January 2026, HEPS increased by a substantial 47.4%.

This was achieved despite revenue growth of only 3.5%, so you can see that the group is tightly managing the expense base. EBITDA was up by 21% and operating profit increased by 12%. Thanks to net finance costs dropping by 35%, this was enough to achieve the excellent result in HEPS.

Even more encouragingly, the group has raised its guidance for full-year EBITDA to above R610 million (previously R580 million – R600 million). They expect that recurring revenue will be at least 60% of the business, with a minimum of 60 cents in free cash flow per share.

How often do you see free cash flow per share guidance in South Africa? In fact, how often do you see such detailed guidance at all?

As a sign of just how far things have come for this group, their latest acquisition (MySky Group) will be settled with R47 million in cash and R5 million in shares. Keep in mind that iOCO is the phoenix that emerged from the ashes of EOH. To see acquisitions being settled (even partially) in shares is incredible.


Master Drilling flags a modest decline in HEPS (JSE: MDI)

The release of a trading statement was triggered for other reasons

Master Drilling has released a trading statement for the year ended December 2025. HEPS in rand will be between 6.9% lower and 3.0% higher than the prior period, so the mid-point of that range is a slightly negative year-on-year move.

In US dollars, HEPS will be between 4.5% lower and 5.6% higher than the prior period. In this case, the mid-point is slightly in the green.

The reason why a trading statement was required is that earnings per share (EPS) has jumped by between 63.1% and 73.0% in rand (or between 66.9% and 77.4% in US dollars). This is thanks to the reversal of previous impairments to the Mobile Tunnel Boring Machine. It’s a reminder of the uncertainty that the company needs to deal with in its operations, as things can change quickly around the usefulness of specific equipment.


PPC continues to “Awaken the Giant” (JSE: PPC)

Revenue and profits are heading in the right direction

PPC released an operational update for the ten months to January 2026. The market clearly liked it, as the share price closed 8.4% higher on the day. The “Awaken the Giant” strategy is working beautifully.

Revenue for the period is up 4% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 22%. In this case, the adjustments make EBITDA lower rather than higher, as they are reversing out a sale of a non-core property for an accounting profit. I would therefore suggest working with the adjusted numbers.

On an adjusted basis, EBITDA margin was 280 basis points higher at 19.4%. Both the SA Group and Zimbabwe contributed positively here, as you’ll find out in more detail below.

Capital expenditure for the full year will be slightly below the guidance of R450 million. This is due to maintenance activity and related shutdowns spilling over into the new financial year. Those shutdowns have caused a temporary spike in inventory of R208 million.

The shutdowns mean that net cash flow before investing activities is R567 million in the current period, down from R692 million in the comparable period.

The South African group is in a net cash position of R367 million, a juicy improvement from R106 million as at 31 January 2025. This is a good time to remind you that PPC was once an absolute basket case, with all the talk being around whether the group would end up in business rescue!

Here’s another important nugget for those keeping an eye on Botswana: cement volumes in that country are down. The diamond casualties continue.

South African volumes are up by 2%. Just a modest uptick in local activity would make a world of difference to PPC’s business.

Despite this light growth in South Africa and the pressure in Botswana, the operations in these countries grew EBITDA by 17% on a combined basis.

In Zimbabwe, volumes were up by an excellent 22%. EBITDA was up by 23%, so you aren’t seeing much in the way of operating leverage there – but you’re certainly seeing plenty of growth. PPC has flagged some margin pressure that will come through in the final months of the year, as there has been a mechanical failure at the Bulawayo factory.

Record dividends from PPC Zimbabwe are just the icing on the cake for this story.


Sabvest’s NAV performed beautifully in 2025 (JSE: SBP)

The dividend has followed suit

Sabvest, one of the best investment holding companies on the JSE, released results for the year ended December 2025.

The company holds 11 unlisted investments, just one listed investment, and two investments currently noted as held-for-sale. Everything is accounted for on a fair value basis, which is why net asset value (NAV) per share is the right performance metric for the group.

NAV per share increased by a delightful 21.9% to R161.05. The dividend per share was 23.8% higher at 130 cents. This was a great year for Sabvest.

Then again, with a 20-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the NAV per share of 19.2% (without dividends), is anyone really surprised?

In terms of portfolio concentration, the two largest holdings (Apex Partners Holdings and SA Bias Industries) contribute R3.1 billion of the total fair value of just over R6 billion. This means that over half of the portfolio sits in just two assets.

Encouragingly, Sabvest has indicated that there might be further investments in the pipeline in 2026. This is a sign of positive sentiment.


Vukile’s Castellana inks another deal in Spain (JSE: VKE)

This adds to the retail portfolio

Vukile Property Fund announced that 99.7%-held Spanish subsidiary, Castellana Properties, is acquiring a 50% share in Splau Shopping Centre.

The centre is located in Barcelona, the second largest city in Spain. This is a tourist hotspot that attracts plenty of footfall. The centre has a strong leisure angle to address this demand, including the largest cinema in Spain with more than 770,000 visitors.

Going to the movies is clearly still a thing in Barcelona!

Here’s another interesting stat: 77% of customers at the centre arrive by car. I’m quite surprised by how high that is, given the level of public transport in Europe.

The gross asset value of the property is €350 million, and there is a mortgage balance of €171.5 million. Castellana is paying €89 million for the 50% share.

Vukile indicates that this deal is earnings accretive for the company.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The sons of the Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP) founders sold shares worth just over R320 million. It looks like the sales were by an entity (or trust – it’s not clear) in which they both have an interest. Dis-Chem also decided it was too much work to include the total value of the sale in the SENS announcement, so I had to literally add up more than 20 trades.
    • A non-executive director of STADIO (JSE: SDO) bought shares worth R198k.
    • The CEO of Libstar (JSE: LBR) bought shares worth almost R100k.
    • Des de Beer is back on the bid, buying Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE) shares worth R76k.
  • Putprop (JSE: PPR) has very little liquidity in its stock, so the results for the six months to December 2025 only get a mention down here. HEPS at the property company declined from 28.35 cents to 24.19 cents. This is the inevitable outcome of a mere 3.4% increase in rentals and recoveries vs. an 8.5% increase in property operating costs. These issues were partially mitigated by a 25% reduction in finance costs. Despite the challenges, the dividend per share increased from 7 cents to 8.5 cents.
  • Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) has secured a €300 million revolving credit facility. There are four lenders involved in this facility. With a three-year term and two one-year extension options, there’s very useful flexibility here. There’s also an accordion of up to €100 million, allowing the facility to be increased on the same terms as the initial amount. Pricing and covenants are in line with the original €150 million revolving credit facility, which means a margin of 120 basis points over EURIBOR. Covenants are also largely in line with the 2032 bond. When property funds can raise revolving credit facilities, rather than debt against specific properties, you know they are doing well.
  • Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) has increased its secured term loan for the joint venture with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital. The facility with a syndicate of banks has been increased by £222 million to £437 million. This is an interest-only facility maturing in June 2028, with two one-year extension options. The cost is fixed for the entire facility at 5.24%. The proceeds will refinance near-term debt maturities, resulting in a loan-to-value ratio for the company of 43%.
  • Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) has settled the final acquisition consideration for the Okiep Copper Project. This means a further R2.3 million in cash and R12.44 million in shares will change hands. There’s a potential “agterskot” payment down the line based on certain conditions.
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