Thursday, February 5, 2026
Subscribe
Home Blog

Ghost Bites (Datatec | Glencore | Harmony Gold | Hyprop | Impala Platinum | Mpact | The Foschini Group | RCL Foods | Southern Sun | Super Group | Zeder)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Datatec | Glencore | Harmony Gold | Hyprop | Impala Platinum | Mpact | The Foschini Group | RCL Foods | Southern Sun | Super Group | Zeder)

Another bolt-on deal for Datatec (JSE: DTC)

Cybersecurity is an attractive space for deals

Datatec continues to increase its international footprint through bolt-on acquisitions that add to the business without creating significant risk. This is a clever and effective way to grow, although it does take longer. This is the benefit of investing alongside a founder CEO, rather than a “manager” CEO trying to move the dial and maximise earnings during a term of only a few years.

The latest deal is an acquisition by Logicalis US of Maple Woods Enterprises, a long-term cybersecurity partner of Logicalis US. The Maple Woods Overwatch offering is built for the US defence industry, so it’s clearly robust.

Cybersecurity is a priority area for the group, so I expect to see more deals like this in future.

Glencore does a deal with Orion for its DRC assets – but no, it’s not that Orion (JSE: GLN)

Orion Critical Mineral Consortium is a US-based entity

Glencore announced that Orion Critical Mineral Consortium will look to acquire a 40% stake in Glencore’s interests in the DRC assets. The implied combined enterprise value of the assets is around $9 billion, so this is a large transaction.

Orion Critical Mineral Consortium is focused on securing critical minerals (as the name suggests) for the US and its partners. This consortium was only established in October 2025, so this is firmly a Trump-era initiative. In this case, the minerals in question are copper and cobalt.

Encouragingly for the DRC and the people near the mines, Glencore will look for opportunities to expand and develop these mines. They will also be open to additional critical mineral projects and assets in the DRC alongside their new partner. There’s certainly no shortage of capital in the US, so being able to tap into the world’s deepest capital pool is helpful.

Harmony Gold had a wobbly, but they believe they can still achieve guidance (JSE: HAR)

Here’s another reminder that the commodity price is only half the battle won

The other half, of course, is getting the stuff out of the ground. For the six months to December 2025, Harmony Gold had some challenges in doing that.

A mill motor failure and a deferment of the final gold shipment at Hidden Valley to January 2026 will impact the interim numbers, but should be fine on a full-year basis. Other issues included disappointing recovered grades and an industry-wide cyanide shortage in South Africa.

Despite this, the company hopes to meet full-year production guidance and achieve the planned all-in sustaining cost.

The CSA copper operation in Australia is being integrated into the group after the recent acquisition, while the Eva Copper Project has an appointed EPC contractor that is expected to be on site during the March 2026 quarter.

Hyprop confirms the retail trend that we can all see: a shift from December to Black Friday (JSE: HYP)

South Africans love a deal even more than they love decorated trees

Hyprop released an update for the six months to December. We’ve seen in retailer commentary that sales growth in November seems to be stronger than December. The words “record Black Friday” have come up at various retailers. Hyprop has confirmed this trend, noting a pull-forward of sales from December to November.

This is of course great news for online adoption, as I would wager that Black Friday sales have higher online penetration rates than Christmas shopping when people are on holiday. In an omnichannel environment where orders are fulfilled from stores, my understanding is that Hyprop and other landlords still get a slice of that action.

In the South African portfolio, tenant turnover increased 5.6% in November and only 4% in December, so the trend is clearly visible there. Foot count is even more interesting, up 3.6% in November and thus similar to October at 3.5%. But December was only up 0.8%, supporting my thesis that a shift from Christmas to Black Friday will simply pull a portion of foot count out of the system forever. People aren’t going to the shops as often as they used to.

For the six months, tenant turnover was up 5% and trading density improved by 7.5%. These are decent metrics, particularly in a lower inflation environment.

In Eastern Europe, online adoption is even more obvious. Foot count has declined in every single month in the period, down by 3% overall. Tenant turnover was up 3.8% and trading density climbed 3.6%.

I’m fascinated by the concept of grocery stores as anchor tenants and how things just aren’t what they used to be in terms of these stores attracting people to the malls. It feels like it’s only going to get worse, not better.

Impala Platinum’s profits go to the moon (JSE: IMP)

This is what happens when commodity prices increase sharply

Impala Platinum has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. As you might expect, the numbers are incredible.

HEPS is expected to increase by between 392% and 411%, coming in at between R10.15 and R10.54 per share. Although these are interim numbers, annualising is a dangerous game in this sector because things can change so quickly. The share price trading at around R304 shows you how much is baked into this story in the market.

377 jobs on the line at Mpact’s Springs Mill (JSE: MPT)

The rand doesn’t help, but neither do hostile policies in South Africa towards employees and businesses

A weak rand has historically propped up local industrial companies who have managed to compete locally and globally despite the substantial inefficiencies that come with manufacturing in South Africa. We really don’t make it easy down here, with issues ranging from labour laws through to energy availability and costs.

With the rand now strengthening (and the SARB absolutely obsessed with avoiding any rate cuts), our manufacturers are coming under pressure. It’s a two-pronged issue, with exports becoming less lucrative and imported alternatives becoming cheaper.

Mpact is one of the first public examples of this issue playing out, but there will be others.

Mpact’s Springs Mill is the only domestic producer of cartonboard, competing directly with imports that have found a home in South Africa in an environment of overcapacity in the global cartonboard market. The largest customers of the mill can import cartonboard at prices that are 20% lower than the cost of local production. You can guess where this is going.

When you consider that operating profit for the year ended December 2024 was just R32 million based on revenue of R1.74 billion, you can see that there was no room to absorb this pricing pressure.

With the largest remaining customer notifying Mpact that they will be importing going forwards and no longer procuring from Springs Mill, the show is over for that facility. Production will run until the end of March, at which point 377 people are likely to lose their jobs.

Of course, in a vibrant economy, there should be 377 new jobs waiting for these people at companies that can flourish in a stronger rand environment. Alas, this isn’t a vibrant economy.

Hold on to your seats: the TFG bloodbath isn’t over (JSE: TFG)

The Foschini Group’s offshore results are going from bad to worse

The Foschini Group (TFG) is having a really tough time at the moment. It looks even worse in the context of 2025’s Capital Markets Day. Analysts felt that the targets shared that day were spicy to say the least, but I don’t think anyone expected this level of underperformance. I’m becoming concerned that TFG and Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK) might be in the same WhatsApp group.

TFG has released a trading update for the quarter and nine months ended 27 December 2025. There’s a lot of detail to unpack, but the overall theme is that TFG Africa is losing ground and the offshore businesses barely know where the ground is anymore.

Group sales increased 2.9% for the quarter, which is much lower than the 7.5% year-to-date growth. One of the reasons is that TFG Africa grew 3.5% for the quarter vs. 4.2% year-to-date, a noticeable slowdown. Another big reason is that White Stuff, part of TFG London, was acquired in October 2024 and was thus in the base for Q3. This is why TFG London was only up 6.5% for the quarter vs. 37.2% year-to-date where Q1 and Q2 weren’t comparable to the previous years.

It’s easy to grow by acquiring revenue, so that year-to-date number isn’t reflective of performance. Here’s the number that does show you the performance: if you strip out White Stuff, TFG London’s sales fell 2.4% in the third quarter and 2.6% over nine months. Yuck!

That’s still better than retail widowmaker Australia, down 2.6% for the quarter and 1.9% for the nine months.

And if you exclude White Stuff from the group numbers, then sales growth over nine months is only 2% instead of 7.5%. You get the idea.

The clear highlight is online sales. At group level, they increased 23.4% in the third quarter and 36.6% year-to-date, now contributing 14.3% to total retail sales. In TFG Africa, Bash did what it says on the tin and dished out pain to the competition, growing online sales 54.9% in the third quarter and 46.7% year-to-date. Online sales are now 7.9% of total sales in TFG Africa.

I’ll say the same thing that I said in the Pepkor (JSE: PPH) update this week: Mr Price (JSE: MRP) is asleep at the wheel in online sales and needs to stop throwing away market share by barely participating.

We may as well deal with TFG Africa, where like-for-like sales were up 1.2% in the third quarter and 2.9% year-to-date. I cannot for the life of me understand how Cellular sales can be down 2.5%, as that has been a very strong performer at major competitors. I guess for others to be winning, someone had to be losing! At least Beauty is a real highlight, up by 20.3% in the third quarter.

A meaty 26.1% of TFG Africa’s sales are on credit. The debtors book is 6.8% higher year-on-year, a surprising increase in the context of the credit sales performance of 5.3% year-to-date. They call it a steady risk environment, but that doesn’t seem particularly steady to me. Hopefully we won’t see credit challenges coming through as well, as TFG has more than enough to deal with already!

TFG London and TFG Australia continue to be huge headaches, with the group now expecting impairments of up to R750 million. This doesn’t impact HEPS, but it does indicate the extent of value destruction in those offshore businesses in recent times. This is just one of the many cautionary tales that Mr Price has opted to ignore in pursuit of NKD in Europe.

Before you feel that HEPS is safe, I must point out that TFG London’s gross margin has contracted by 90 basis points year-to-date based on inventory clearance. When you combine this with the pressures across the board, I suspect that investors are in for another rough ride in terms of HEPS. The company hasn’t given a range for HEPS in this update.

In terms of outlook and recent trading, TFG Africa’s sales grew 5.8% for the 5 weeks to 31 January 2026. TFG London increased 5.6% in local currency, which is an encouraging outcome. TFG Australia remains a mess, down 1.1% in local currency.

The share price is down 39% over 12 months. I personally don’t think we are anywhere near the bottom yet, but we will see how the market reacts to this update that came out at the close of play on Tuesday.

A bitter outcome for HEPS at RCL Foods (JSE: RCL)

The sugar is to blame

RCL Foods released a trading statement dealing with the six months to December 2025. I’m afraid that it isn’t good news, with HEPS expected to be at least 25% lower year-on-year.

The move is much bigger in earnings per share (EPS), but that’s because of numerous adjustments related to non-cash gains and insurance proceeds. This is exactly why the market focuses on HEPS instead, as it gives us a standardised metric that strips away as many of these distortions as possible.

So, what happened in HEPS? The answer lies in the sugar business.

A once-off partial recovery of the sugar industry levy in the base period is responsible for 5.6 cents of the “at least” 27.4 cents drop in HEPS. Kudos to the company for giving helpful and detailed disclosure here!

The remaining 21.8 cents is thanks to the performance in the sugar business itself, with the challenge being an influx of imports that led to local production being sold in the less lucrative export market.

This tells us that sugar is more expensive locally than it would be without tariffs. The importance of the growers and millers in the South African industry leads to government being willing to protect them, with RCL pushing for amendments to the tariffs to do something about these deep sea imports that have hurt the local industry.

Thankfully, the Groceries and Baking units are achieving higher profits despite pressure on volumes. It’s just not enough to offset the pain in Sugar as the largest individual segment from an EBITDA perspective.

Well, Sugar probably isn’t the largest segment anymore, as Baking has been hot on its heels and this update suggests that there might be a new pecking order within RCL.

Southern Sun will take a 50% stake in key properties in Sandton (JSE: SPG)

Liberty will be selling to Southern Sun and Pareto

Southern Sun currently operates the Sandton Sun, Sandton Towers, Garden Court Sandton City and Sandton Convention Centre under long-term contracts with Liberty and Pareto. Those two companies have stakes of 75% and 25% in the properties respectively.

Liberty is a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) and Pareto is owned by the Government Employee’s Pension Fund, managed by the PIC.

Liberty is going to sell its stake in Sandton Towers, Garden Court Sandton City, Sandton Convention Centre and the Virgin Active Sandton (but note: not Sandton Sun). Pareto will increase its stake from 25% to 50%, while Southern Sun will take the other 50%.

Strategically, this makes sense for Southern Sun. They own the majority of their hotel portfolio, giving them far more control than if they were purely an operator on behalf of others. Being able to take a 50% stake in these properties creates more strategic alignment with the rest of the portfolio.

Southern Sun’s 50% stake will cost them R735 million, payable from available debt facilities. This is in line with the independent valuation that was done as at December 2024.

This seems like a strong deal for Southern Sun, with the share price closing 4.3% higher in appreciation.

Super Group’s continuing operations live up to the name (JSE: SPG)

The same can’t be said for the automotive business in the UK

Super Group has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. HEPS is expected to be between 23.6% and 31.8% higher, which means a range of between 150 cents and 160 cents. To add to that good news, the balance sheet is in good shape and net debt ratios are healthy.

Great, but what about the discontinued operations?

If you include those operations and therefore look at the group total, then HEPS is between 134 cents and 145 cents. The year-on-year move is less relevant, as the disposal of SG Fleet in the prior year impacts comparability. The part that is relevant is that the UK automotive segment is in trouble.

The Hyundai and Suzuki dealerships in the UK have been closed. The UK KIA dealerships remain in discontinued operations. The automotive logistics segment has deteriorated thanks to a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover that led to a two-month shut down of production. If there are no cars being produced, there’s nothing to move around in the logistics business. This drove a trading loss in AMCO of R25.5 million for the six months. Overall, the UK is an unhappy place in the automotive space right now.

Super Group clearly believes in the mantra of your first loss being your best loss. They’ve decided to exit AMCO and they are looking for a buyer. This is why the business has landed in discontinued operations in this update. But with no guarantee of a buyer emerging quickly (or at a reasonable price), I don’t think it would be right to focus only on the continuing operations in this update.

The release of results on 24 February will have full details for investors.

Zeder finally has a buyer for Zaad (JSE: ZED)

The share price closed 18% higher on the day

Zeder has been a value unlock play for as long as anyone can remember. They’ve been selling off smaller assets in the group, but Zaad has always been the big fish that needed to find the right line to be hooked onto.

That line has come in the form of a consortium of WIPHOLD, the PIC, the IDC and Phatisa Food. This gives enough balance sheet muscle for Zeder and the minorities in Zaad to be able to sell their shares and claims for up to R1.42 billion. Zeder will receive R1.39 billion of that amount.

In case you aren’t familiar with the business, Zaad operates in the agri-inputs industry with a focus on emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Nothing is ever quite this simple. As a precursor to this deal, excluded assets worth R801 million need to be sold separately or restructured out of Zaad Holdings. This means that Zeder will continue to own May Seed and various other assets. The assets other than May Seed are in the process of being disposed of.

Zeder intends to distribute a “significant portion” of the deal value to shareholders. They will give further information in the circular when it is released to shareholders (around 23 March 2026), as this is a Category 1 transaction.

The value of the shares and claims in the latest financials was R2 billion, but this included May Seed and the other “excluded assets” and isn’t directly comparable. This implies that they’ve sold roughly R1.2 billion worth of assets for R1.42 billion. Importantly, the share price was trading at a discount to the valuation anyway, so this price is significantly higher than the market cap was implying.

That’s how a value unlock is supposed to work!

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Saul Saltzman, son of the founders of Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP), sold shares in the company worth R12.7 million.
    • A prescribed officer of Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC) sold shares worth R9 million.
    • A director of a subsidiary of RFG Holdings (JSE: RFG) bought shares worth R119k.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Insimbi Holdings (JSE: ISB) sold shares worth R71.5k.
  • Bowler Metcalf (JSE: BCF) has a market cap of just over R1 billion, making it a small cap on the JSE and thus a company with limited liquidity in the stock. Recent results seem to be solid though, with revenue up 8% for the six months to December and HEPS up by 16%. The cash has followed suit, with the interim dividend up 16%. Nice!
  • Tharisa (JSE: THA) is looking for a new CFO after the resignation of Michael Jones with effect from 31 July 2026. That’s a solid handover period that reflects an innings of 14 years as CFO. It will be interesting to see whether they have an internal replacement lined up vs. bringing in external ideas.
  • Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) has made another repayment of R50 million to Standard Bank. The outstanding facility has been reduced from R300 million to R250 million.
  • Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) announced the results of the dividend reinvestment programme. Holders of 0.46% of issued shares in the UK and 3.0% of issued shares in South Africa opted to receive shares instead of cash. But here’s the nuance: settlement is through the purchase of shares in the market rather than the issuance of new shares. This is therefore non-dilutive to other shareholders.
  • Between 26 November 2025 and 22 January 2026, Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) repurchased R11.4 million worth of shares at an average price of R33.34. The current price is R32.50. This only represents 0.63% of shares in issue and they have the authority to do far more.
  • MTN Zakhele Futhi (JSE: MTNZF) shareholders will receive an “agterskot” payment thanks to the costs of unwinding the scheme being less than anticipated. The final payment is 23 cents per share, of which 8 cents is the agterskot and 15 cents is the scheme consideration.

Ghost Bites (DRDGOLD | MC Mining | Pepkor | Shoprite | Vukile)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (DRDGOLD | MC Mining | Pepkor | Shoprite | Vukile)

DRDGOLD inks a wage deal with NUM and AMCU (JSE: DRD)

This brings certainty, but also above-inflation increases for five years

DRDGOLD had a tricky end to 2025. Despite gold prices doing wonderful things for the share price, the company received notice of a protected strike action from NUM and AMCU. The strike was suspended to allow the parties to sit around the negotiating table.

It looks like the unions came out with a strong deal here. They’ve secured increases of between 6% and 7.5% per year for the next five years. There’s a new 2% performance-based incentive based on key metrics, as well as various other improvements to allowances and support schemes. Backpay is payable from 1 July 2025. And as the cherry on top, there’s a payment of R5k to each employee!

DRDGOLD better hope that the gold price keeps doing well.

MC Mining takes drastic action with Uitkomst Colliery (JSE: MCZ)

This comes after the quarterly update that revealed the difficulties

MC Mining has attracted international investment based on the exciting Makhado hard coking and thermal coal project. The problem is that the group also owns Uitkomst Colliery, where the financial performance is going from bad to worse. In business as in life, you cannot allow a tumour to go untreated.

This is why MC Mining has taken the decision to temporarily suspend mining and processing operations at Uitkomst with an intended effective date of 1 March 2026. They have a lot of hoops to jump through to achieve this, not least of all from a labour and retrenchment perspective.

It’s always very sad to see stuff like this, but businesses are run for a profit and sometimes need to make tough decisions. Uitkomst is suffering cash losses at the moment, something that a mining company with an important development project just cannot (and shouldn’t) stomach.

The reference to this being a temporary closure is just an effort to retain long-term optionality. I can’t see them magically reopening in a couple of months.

Pepkor had a solid finish to 2025 despite the tough base (JSE: PPH)

This is why the share price suffered much less than clothing peers over the past year

We know that the clothing sector has been a hideous place to invest in the past year. Even Pepkor, by far the best of a bad bunch, is only flat over 12 months. That’s considerable outperformance in this context though:

Yikes!

Pepkor’s defensive share price performance has been well earned. For the three months to December 2025, a really tough period vs. the two-pot withdrawal base period at the end of 2024, revenue was up by 8.3% if you split out the acquisitions. If you include them, then revenue was up 12.9%. Impressively, the two-year CAGR without acquisitions is 10.3%. Double-digit revenue growth in this market is excellent.

Sales in Southern Africa were up 2.0% on a like-for-like basis. In PEP Africa and Avenida, like-for-like sales were up 12.7% in constant currency, as those businesses didn’t have the two-pot withdrawal distortion that we had in South Africa. In rand terms, they were up 16.7%.

In case you’re wondering, PEP Africa and Avenida contributed 4% and 5% of group sales respectively.

Another important lens is to compare cash sales (up 7.4%) to credit sales (up 26.9%). Credit sales contributed 18% of total sales.

Group online sales increased by 27.9%, an exceptional performance that shows how important digital adoption is across the LSM curve. Mr Price (JSE: MRP) should pay attention here, as their online sales are only growing in line with in-store sales.

Looking at the retail segments, the Clothing and General Merchandise (CGM) segment grew 5.8% excluding acquisitions and 7.5% on a two-year CAGR basis. Furniture, Appliances and Electronics (FAE) grew 4.6% excluding acquisitions and 6.5% on a two-year CAGR basis. I must note that CGM is over 5x the size of FAE, so these segments are far from being of equal importance.

Speaking of importance, PEP and Ackermans contributed a combined 63% of group sales. It’s therefore critical that these parts of the business perform well. Ackermans struggled with a 0.6% decline in like-for-like sales, but PEP managed a strong 2.8%. Back-to-school is a critical period for Ackermans, so the current quarter likely matters even more than the festive quarter.

Retailers often have to make tough decisions in their footprints. For example, Pepkor has closed Shoe City – that’s a significant closure of 113 stores. Making these tough decisions is key in driving the group forwards.

You might be wondering how those segmental performances reconcile with the much stronger group revenue performance. The answer lies in the Fintech segment, where revenue was up by a wonderful 25.4%. This includes financial services, insurance, cellular and other revenue opportunities.

In the first three weeks of January 2026, they’ve carried on where they left off. Group sales were up 8.3% excluding acquisitions.

Shoprite piles the pressure on competitors (JSE: SHP)

They achieved above-inflation earnings growth despite being very aggressive on price

Shoprite isn’t trying to win a competition based on who can release the best quarterly results. They are playing a long game, acting as the python that is continuously squeezing the impala until it devours the whole thing. Retail is a game of tiny incremental changes and improvements, particularly in grocery retail where consumers are so price sensitive.

The recent trend at Shoprite has been one of decelerating growth in the Supermarkets RSA segment, although they are still posting strong growth rates that reflect ongoing increases in volumes.

The trend continued in the quarter ended 28 December (Q2), Supermarkets RSA grew sales by 6.5% vs. 7.9% in the quarter ended 28 September (Q1). The trend was visible elsewhere as well: 11.3% in Supermarkets non-RSA in Q2 vs. 12.9% in Q1, and 2.3% in Other Operating Segments in Q2 vs. 4.8% in Q1.

This means that group sales from continuing operations increased 6.5% in Q2 vs. 8.0% in Q1. For the first half of the year, that comes out at 7.2% growth. It’s easy to forget the sheer scale here: to achieve that growth, Shoprite needed to find an additional R9.2 billion in sales!

But the real story here is around inflation, which is where we can see how Shoprite is punishing inefficient competitors. In a period in which official food inflation was 4.7% for the six months, Shoprite’s internal selling price inflation was just 0.7%. Competing against Shoprite is no joke, with price deflation in November to December!

Like-for-like sales increased 1.9% for the six months, so this implies volume growth of roughly 1.2%.

Digging into the segments, we find Shoprite and Usave with sales growth of 5.1%. Both banners experienced price deflation, including -0.7% at Usave.

Tell me again how capitalism is evil and that it doesn’t benefit the poor to allow businesses to run efficiently? I would love to see any government in the world do a better job than this with the capital they would raise through more taxes.

Further up the LSM curve, Checkers and Checkers Hyper achieved sales growth of 8.9%, with selling price inflation for Checkers of 1.9% and Checkers Hyper of 1.1%. This is another reminder of how difficult they are making things for competitors like Woolworths (JSE: WHL).

As for the scooters all over our roads, Sixty60 sales increased by 34.6%. It’s a remarkable story of disruption and the importance of distribution.

The growth in the footprint is rapid, not least of all as Shoprite is stepping into the void left by a shrinking Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK) across the country. They opened 262 stores over the past 12 months (note the different time period here), including 50 Shoprite, 42 Usave and 32 Checkers.

Shoprite is also incubating a number of other banners like Petshop Science, Uniq Clothing, Checkers Outdoor and Little Me. These form part of the “adjacent businesses” and these names were good for 71.2% growth. Petshop Science is being rolled out the fastest, with 45 new stores in the past year. They actually closed two Little Me stores, so there are clearly more little tails and fluffy ears out there than humans who need prams. The birth rate is becoming a very scary story.

In Supermarkets Non-RSA, constant currency sales growth was 9.5%. In rand, sales were up by 12.1%. They opened a net 15 stores over 12 months, taking them to 272 stores across seven countries.

In the Other Operating Segments area, OK Franchise suffered a decline of nine stores and sales growth of only 1.7%. In much happier news, Medirite increased sales by 13.5% and pharmaceutical distributor Transpharm was up 5.5%. Pharmacy (with the associated health and beauty knock-on benefit) is an important retail category in South Africa.

Once you bring it all together, HEPS from continuing operations increased by between 5.2% and 10.2% for the six months. That may not sound exciting (especially for a company on a P/E close to 20x), but that’s still an inflation-beating return in a period where Shoprite delivered lower prices to the poorest South Africans. That’s hard to fault and certainly looks like a strong, defensive performance.

As an aside, the sale of the furniture business to Pepkor (JSE: PPH) is ongoing. Lewis (JSE: LEW) is fighting hard to get that deal blocked by the Competition Commission.

Vukile buys a new property in Spain (JSE: VKE)

They haven’t taken long to recycle some capital

Vukile recently announced that they were selling some properties in Spain. This is because those properties had reached a level of maturity that made them more suitable for ownership by an institutional investor rather than a dedicated REIT. The hands-off approach of the new owners is evidenced by Spanish subsidiary Castellana locking in a management agreement for the properties.

Naturally, this means that Castellana has been looking for new opportunities to deploy capital. It didn’t take them very long, with a property in Spain having been identified.

Castellana has agreed to buy Berceo Shopping Centre in Logrono from Barings Core Spain, a company listed on the Euronext Paris. The price is €108 million, payable in cash.

Castellana will acquire the majority of the gross lettable area, with the portion occupied by Carrefour owned by an institutional investor in Spain. We aren’t used to seeing these structures in South Africa, but it makes sense if you think about it – the opportunity to really add value lies in the part of the property that isn’t occupied by the anchor grocery tenant.

The broader region has around 324,000 inhabitants and has grown 3% since 2018. The GDP per capita is ahead of the Spanish average, with expected GDP growth of 2.4% being in line with the national average.

We easily forget how developed South Africa actually is. Vukile notes that this centre is the only major retail destination within a 100km radius!

The acquisition price is a net operating income yield of 7%. Buying a European property at that yield does seem interesting, especially as Castellana believes that there are good opportunities to improve the underlying income. Thanks to the lower cost of debt in Europe, the cash-on-cash yield is actually leveraged up to 8.6% through the use of €50 million in debt (a loan-to-value ratio of 46%).

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The brothers who founded WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC) sold a whopping R866 million worth of shares. The entity through which they both hold their shares now has only 5.65% in the company. I can certainly understand the desire to diversify, but obviously the optics aren’t great when the company has been through a difficult time recently. The selling pressure was clear in the share price, which is down 11% over 7 days. I remain invested in this story for numerous reasons.
    • The CEO and founder of Acsion (JSE: ACS) bought shares in the company worth R2.4 million.
    • The CFO of Sephaku Holdings (JSE: SEP) bought shares worth R646k.
    • A director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R45k. And no, the website still doesn’t work.
  • In December, Sappi (JSE: SAP) announced a possible joint venture for graphic paper in Europe with UPM-Kymmene Corporation. This would be a Category 1 transaction, so a circular and shareholder vote is required. The JSE has granted an extension to the company for the distribution of the circular, with the new date expected to be around 30 April 2026.
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) never seems to sit still. The company is highly active in growing its existing business and bringing in new opportunities, evidenced by the latest deal to acquire preferred stock in a company called Opeongo. This is a biotech company working in therapeutics for fibrosis, inflammation and cancer. The preferred stock is convertible and comes with various investor protections. This is a casual $10 million bet on this biotech firm.
  • KAL Group (JSE: KAL) announced the disposal of Agriplas back in September 2025. There’s just one condition outstanding, namely approval by the Eswatini Competition Commission. It’s amazing how it is almost always a non-South African competition regulator that takes the most time to grant approval in these deals. The parties have extended the fulfilment date to 16 February 2026.
  • Hulamin (JSE: HLM) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to the disposal of Hulamin Extrusions. There is still no guarantee of a firm deal being announced here.
  • Sanlam (JSE: SLM) has now received the shares in Ninety One (JSE: N91 | JSE: NY1) as payment for the asset management deal. This makes Sanlam a 12.5% shareholder in Ninety One. If you adjust for the minorities in Sanlam Investment Holdings, Sanlam Group has an effective 9.1% holding.
  • Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) announced that some of its South African project companies have been selected for the BHP Xplor accelerator program – basically an incubator for mining projects. This delivers $500k in equity-free funding for the projects, as well as access to technical expertise and experienced mentors. Before you panic, the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine and New Okiep Mining Company are not part of this award as they are far further down the road in their respective development journeys.
  • Oando (JSE: OAO) released results for the quarter and year ended December 2025. There’s close to zero liquidity in the stock, so I’ll just mention it down here. Revenue fell 21% year-on-year and gross profit was down 82%. Profit after tax increased 10%, but there are lots of non-operating adjustments in there.

Ghost Bites (ArcelorMittal | Gemfields | Impala Platinum | MC Mining | Ninety One – Sanlam | Orion Minerals)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (ArcelorMittal | Gemfields | Impala Platinum | MC Mining | Ninety One – Sanlam | Orion Minerals)

ArcelorMittal reports another huge loss (JSE: ACL)

It’s better than the prior year, but that’s not saying much

ArcelorMittal’s share price is R1.35. For the year ended December 2025, the company has flagged a headline loss per share of between R2.68 and R3.18. Sure, that’s better than the loss of R4.58 in the prior year, but you can see where this is heading.

It’s not often that you’ll see a company trading on a Price/Earnings multiple of worse than -1. Although valuation techniques get very murky in these extreme examples of value destruction (it becomes about liquidation value rather than going concern value), the simplistic view is that this multiple implies that the company would be worthless within the next 12 months if losses continue at the current rate.

Results will come out on 5th February. The company will need to convince the market that it isn’t going to fall right off a cliff in 2026. It’s certainly teetering on the edge.

Gemfields released some key metrics for the year ended December 2025 (JSE: GML)

Avoiding the use of comparative numbers doesn’t mean that people won’t go digging for them

You can learn something from the omissions in a SENS announcement, not just the inclusions. When a company doesn’t disclose comparative numbers, it can be because they don’t have a great story to tell and would prefer mainstream media to gloss right over it.

Gemfields at least gives a link to an Excel doc that has their comparative numbers, but they still aren’t making it easy for casual observers to get a flavour of the performance. I will say this: they are at least consistent in terms of not disclosing any comparative numbers whatsoever, so at least they aren’t just cherry-picking the (few) good ones and ignoring the rest.

Sadly, positive narratives have been hard to come by for the company. Gemfields could only manage auction revenues of $128.5 million for the year to December 2025. A quick dig through the 2024 annual report reveals that revenue was $212.8 million in that year and $262 million in 2023, so the trajectory is very ugly.

The share price has lost over two-thirds of its value in the past three years, so this isn’t a huge shock if you’ve been following the company.

The net debt position as at December 2025 was $39.2 million (before auction receivables of $20.5 million). That’s a lot better than when it was out of control at the end of 2024 ($80.4 million before receivables of $33.9 million). The Gemfields balance sheet had to be bailed out by brave shareholders, as the company’s capex programme proved to be too aggressive and got them into serious trouble.

Is there any other good news? Yes, there are thankfully some highlights.

The second processing plant at Montepuez Ruby Mining is expected to be commissioned “imminently” after being delivered materially on budget. The first rubies from this plant should go on auction this month.

At Kagem, the emeralds business, premium recoveries have met expectations. This is a good time to remind you that precious stones like these come out of the ground in all shapes and sizes, so Gemfields is never quite sure what they will find. When a whopper of a thing is discovered, it gets a name and a story and ideally a premium price when sold!

Through the use of night shifts at Kagem in this period, they made good progress in processing the stockpiles.

Gemfields has been through the most, and so has the balance sheet. I hope 2026 will be a better year for them. It must be tough to see the success in areas like gold and PGMs, while emeralds and rubies are left for dead. On the plus side, at least they aren’t mining diamonds!

Impala Platinum can be grateful for PGM prices (JSE: IMP)

Production has been pretty flat and unit costs increased 11% per ounce

When you see major one-day moves in mining stocks, you have to be careful in how you interpret them. Impala Platinum closed 13.3% lower on the day of release of a production update, but this is correlation rather than causation (despite the production update being less than inspiring).

The quickest way to check this is to just look at how the sector peers performed. Sure enough, it was a bloodbath across the gold and PGM names, with the Resource 10 index dropping 10.4% on the day. This is because of movement in the commodity prices, not because of Impala Platinum’s production update. I must remind you that the Resource 10 is up 129% over 12 months and Impala Platinum has tripled over that period (up 208%)!

Moving on to the production update itself, there isn’t much growth here to take advantage of the higher prices. For the six months ended December 2025, they grew group 6E production by just 1%. This is in line with guidance, but is ultimately a flat performance that has relied on the PGM price upswing to deliver earnings growth. An increase of just 0.3% in 6E sales volumes drives this point home.

Sales revenue jumped by 39.5% to R33,250 per 6E ounce sold, while group unit costs per 6E ounce increased by 11% to R23,200. When detailed earnings are released on 5 March, there will be a good story to tell in terms of margins and headline earnings.

In further good news for free cash flow, group capital expenditure came in at R2.9 billion vs. R3.9 billion in the comparable period. This is due to lower capital expenditure at Zimplats as projects neared completion.

It’s just a pity that more PGMs aren’t coming out of the ground at the moment to take advantage of these prices! The great irony is that if production did rapidly increase in response to high prices, then the prices would likely drop anyway due to the supply/demand balance changing in the market. Such is life in PGMs.

Uitkomst remains a problem at MC Mining (JSE: MCZ)

They need to deliver the Makhado Project without any hiccups

MC Mining has released a quarterly report. We may as well deal with Uitkomst Colliery first, as this is the big headache.

Despite a turnaround plan being in place and delivering some cost savings, production has gone the wrong way at Uitkomst. Run-of-mine coal production fell 30% sequentially and 40% year-on-year. Production yields weren’t the problem, so this means that they just weren’t processing enough material.

Sales at Uitkomst were down 34% year-on-year for high-grade coal. There were no sales of lower-grade coal. To make it worse, prices for thermal coal weakened further in the quarter.

Concerningly, cash on the balance sheet was just $2.9 million as at the end of the quarter. That’s a lot less than $13.2 million at the end of the prior quarter!

Luckily, Uitkomst isn’t the exciting asset here. Kinetic Development Group is working towards a controlling stake in the company for one big reason: the Makhado Project. This will be South Africa’s largest hard coking coal producer.

At Makhado, hot commissioning activities for the coal handling and preparation plant are scheduled to begin by March 2026. They are also making a lot of progress on other major workstreams, ranging from steelworks through to overhead power transmission lines. Project expenditure is within the budgeted estimates.

They cannot afford to slip up in the delivery of Makhado, that’s for sure.

Ninety One completes the acquisition of Sanlam Investment Management’s SA business (JSE: N91 | JSE: NY1 | JSE: SLM)

A new era has dawned

Sanlam does many things, but sitting still isn’t one of them. The financial services giant is never far from the action, with interesting transactions concluded on a regular basis. As internal corporate finance teams go, this must be one of the better ones to work for!

You might recall that at the end of 2024 (yes, that long ago), we found out that Ninety One and Sanlam would be putting in place a long-term active asset management relationship. This makes sense for all involved, as it gives further scale to the operations and allows Sanlam to focus elsewhere (including on its excellent passive investment management business, Satrix).

This is a highly regulated space, so transactions take time to be completed. After a long road, the companies have announced that Ninety One has finalised the acquisition of the South African component of the deal. This triggers the 15-year strategic relationship between the groups.

To pay for the acquisition, Ninety One is issuing shares to the various Sanlam entities that held the Sanlam Investment Management business. This means that Sanlam shareholders will retain look-through exposure to the combined business and gain exposure to the broader Ninety One story.

If you feel like you’ve read something similar to this before, it’s because the UK component of the deal was completed in June 2025. The South African component took longer and is now complete.

Orion Minerals is getting closer to finalising the Glencore deal (JSE: ORN | JSE: GLN)

In the meantime, work continues at both major projects

The Orion Minerals share price has done some crazy things. It has literally doubled year-to-date (yes, that means in January alone) and strongly rewarded those who saw the opportunity to add this asset to their portfolio.

2026 is the year that should see Orion transition from an exploration company to a mining company. This is why much of the focus is on finalising the terms of an offtake and financing deal with Glencore to the value of between $200 million and $250 million.

Orion has two base metal production hubs in South Africa: the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine (PCZM) and the Okiep Copper Project (OCP). You’ll notice that the magic word (“copper”) is in both of those project names. Given all the focus on copper among the mining giants, this is a great time to be on the cusp of producing the stuff. It also makes Orion a really interesting acquisition target.

The Glencore funding is earmarked for work at PCZM. If they can get it finalised, then work on the uppers can begin at PCZM. The due diligence has made significant progress and investors will be hoping for a positive outcome that could give even more momentum to the share price.

Although the near-term excitement is around PCZM, they are also working on optimising the OCP project. Moving forward with both projects is important in justifying what is now a R3.4 billion market cap!

To give you an idea of how much value sits in the ground vs. the bank account, the cash on hand at the end of the quarter was A$5.74 million. That’s less than 2% of the market cap.

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A director of Santova (JSE: SNV) exercised share options worth R277k based on the strike price. The value is R644k based on the current share price. The announcement doesn’t note a sale to cover the tax, but such a sale may still come. If it doesn’t, then that would count as a buy in my books.
  • Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) added its quarterly report to the mix. They are still early in their journey, so the quarterly report is shorter than some of the sector peers (and thus sits in the Nibbles). The company raised A$20 million in the quarter from institutional and large investors, giving it all the funding needed to complete the Definitive Feasibility Study workstream at Bengwenyama. This is the key milestone as they work towards receipt of the mining right and a Final Investment Decision (an official term). It doesn’t hurt that PGMs have gone through the roof. Get this: in the past year, the share price is up 678%! Maximum risk means maximum reward.
  • With Libstar (JSE: LBR) currently trading under cautionary based on engagements with potential acquirers of all the shares in issue, we’ve seen an interesting shift on the shareholder register. Cearus Holdco has sold a 6.56% stake to Allan Gray, taking the latter’s stake to 14.1865%. I noticed this post by Anthony Clark (@smalltalkdaily) that describes Cearus as “allied” to major shareholder Actis.
  • ISA Holdings (JSE: ISA) renewed the cautionary announcement related to the receipt of a non-binding expression of interest related to the acquisition of a controlling stake in ISA. Note the careful use of “controlling” here, rather than “all” the shares. Although this would likely mean a mandatory offer to all shareholders, that’s very different to a scheme of arrangement where it’s an all-or-nothing approach. But here’s the most important thing: there is still no guarantee of this progressing to a firm intention to make an offer. Hence the need for caution!
  • AB InBev (JSE: ANH) has completed the previously announced acquisition of the 49.9% minority stake in its US-based metal container plants from various institutional investors. A meaty number changed hands for this: $2.9 billion!
  • A rather odd SENS announcement came out on Thursday. I had hoped that further clarity would emerge, but all I’ve really seen is speculation. Nedbank (JSE: NED) announced that Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) now has a 5.57% stake in the green bank. Tempting as it may be to think of a merger, it is extremely unlikely that regulators would allow it. I’ve heard a plausible theory that the stake is held in Liberty’s investment funds, which could then be seen as Standard Bank Group. Time will tell.
  • Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) has decided to repurchase up to 5% of the company’s issued share capital. The programme will commence on 1 February 2026 and run until 31 May 2026. With the stock trading on a P/E of just over 10x, the board is sending a message that the shares are undervalued. The market didn’t ignore this, with Famous Brands up 5.5% on the day. The share price is down 6.5% over 12 months, having largely been ignored by the market despite the rally in local stocks.
  • Another local stock that is still in the “cheap” bucket is iOCO (JSE: IOC). They’ve already been busy with repurchases for a while, acquiring R9.6 million worth of shares during January at an average price of R4.42 per share. Since August 2026, they’ve repurchased shares worth R26.5 million at an average price of R4.09 per share. The current share price is R4.48.
  • Europa Metals (JSE: EUZ) has been trying to get a deal done with Marula Mining. As Europa is currently a cash shell, this would’ve injected much-needed operating assets into the structure. Alas, the deal is not going to proceed, which means that the company has been a cash shell for too long and thus the listing on AIM (the London Stock Exchange’s development market) will be cancelled. The company is confirming what this means for the JSE listing, but we can probably guess the outcome here.
  • Zeda (JSE: ZZD) has moved its AGM from 11 February to 27 February based on nominations received from major shareholders for the appointment of directors to the board. An amended notice of the AGM has been published. I don’t usually make reference to AGM notices, but an amended notice like this is worth highlighting.
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) is suspended from trading. They need to get the financials for the six months to June 2025 published, followed by financials for the year ended December 2025. They expect the interims to be out by 15 March 2026 (on an unreviewed basis) and the full-year results to be released by 30 April 2026.
  • African Dawn Capital (JSE: ADW) is suspended from trading. They are trying to finalise the February 2025 financials. They expect to release those annual financial statements by mid-February 2026, with interims for the six months to August 2025 expected to go out by the end of February 2026.
  • The timetable for the planned delisting of Sail Mining Group (JSE: SGP) is being revised due to certain regulatory approvals remaining outstanding. It’s not unusual for transaction timetables to be pushed out for this reason.

The Pony Express: you can’t outrun progress

Dominique Olivier
-
1
The Pony Express: you can’t outrun progress

From galloping horses to “typing…” bubbles, we’ve spent centuries chasing faster ways to communicate. Clarity, it turns out, hasn’t kept the same pace.

Earlier this week, I found myself in a very modern kind of limbo: a WhatsApp conversation with a service provider that simply refused to end.

This, on its own, is unremarkable. I’m sure you’ve also noticed that a growing number of small businesses have retired their reception desks in favour of a single, dedicated WhatsApp line. In theory, it’s efficient, personal, and refreshingly direct, and in practice it usually works just fine.

What made this exchange different was the way every straightforward question I asked was met with an answer that was technically responsive but functionally useless. Not wrong. Just vague. And so the conversation dragged on, message by message, as I tried to establish one very basic thing: was this person actually the right service provider for the job? By the time the matter was resolved, I had spent what felt like ages engaged in a game of WhatsApp ping-pong with a stranger who seemed determined to remain just out of reach of specificity.

I was thinking about this exact exchange later in the week when I read about the history of the Pony Express and how revolutionary it was at the time to be able to send a letter from one end of the United States to the other in only 10 days. With mounting horror, I considered how long the protracted conversation with the service provider would have been if, instead of WhatsApp, we were reliant on teenage boys crossing a vast and dangerous expanse on horseback with a bag full of mail.

The question of the service provider was thankfully (eventually) answered, after an abundance of messages were exchanged. But the awareness of how far we’ve come in terms of getting messages (and even goods!) to each other in the last two centuries has stuck with me. 

Once upon a time

The Pony Express began operations in 1860 and, for just 18 months, achieved something that previously seemed implausible: delivering mail between the east and west coasts of the United States in less than a fortnight. That sounds extremely slow to our modern ears, but before this, communication between the two coasts could take weeks or even months. In a country stretching rapidly westward, that delay was becoming deeply inconvenient. 

California was the reason urgency suddenly mattered. After gold was discovered there in 1848, the population exploded. By 1860, nearly 380,000 people had become Californians, many with financial, political, and family ties back east. California itself had become a state, a battleground of political opinion, and a strategic concern as the Civil War loomed. Yet it remained, in practical terms, very far away from almost everything.

The Pony Express was created in an attempt to shrink that distance. It was founded by William Russell, Alexander Majors, and William Waddell, three experienced logistics operators who already ran vast freighting operations supplying the western frontier. These weren’t romantics – they were businessmen with government contracts, warehouses, wagons, oxen, and an appetite for scale. The fast-mail idea was bold, expensive, and widely dismissed as impossible. But that didn’t put them off.

Instead of using stagecoaches (which is what the post office was doing at the time), they proposed a relay system of mounted riders travelling a shorter, more direct route. Horses would be changed every 16 to 24 kilometers. Riders would be swapped out roughly every 120 to 160 kilometers. The only cargo would be a proprietary leather mail pouch – called the mochila – thrown over the saddle. Everything else (besides a rifle) was stripped away to save weight.

Cape to Congo

The entire system was assembled in just two months of winter. By early 1861, the route was established, stretching nearly 3,000 kilometers from St. Joseph, Missouri, to Sacramento, California (for context – that’s about the distance from Cape Town to the middle of the Democratic Republic of the Congo). The Pony Express crossed plains, deserts, mountains, and territory that was, at best, unpredictable, and at worst, full of warring Native American tribes. Around 190 stations dotted the route, many little more than rough shelters in remote landscapes. Riders travelled day and night, in snow, heat, and isolation.

The Pony Express rider himself had to be lightweight, weighing in at under 60kg, and tough enough to survive the exertion and the elements. For this, he would be paid $125 a month, a handsome wage at the time, though it came with the small downside of constant danger. Naturally, the horses were as critical to the operation as the riders themselves, and they were worked hard. Chosen for speed and stamina rather than size, these “ponies” were expected to run at a fast canter for most of a stage, often up to 24 kilometers an hour, and to be pushed into a full gallop when time or danger demanded it. The moment a rider arrived at a station, the mochila was thrown onto the next horse and the race continued.

During its short life, the Express carried around 35,000 letters faster than anyone thought possible. Perhaps its most famous moment came during the 1860 presidential election. While previous election results had taken months to reach California, the outcome of Abraham Lincoln’s victory arrived in just over seven days – an unrivalled feat at the time, and a powerful demonstration of what the system could do.

Success at a cost

Pony Express riders were often little more than teenagers, chosen not for their experience but for their light weight, stamina, and willingness to take risks that older men might hesitate over. Billy Tate was only fourteen when he took on one of these routes in Nevada. During the Paiute uprising of 1860, he was chased by a group of Paiute warriors and forced into the hills. Outnumbered and trapped behind a cluster of rocks, he fought until he ran out of ammunition but still managed to take down seven of his attackers. When his body was found, it was riddled with arrows but he had not been scalped – a sign, according to contemporary accounts, that his attackers respected his bravery.

Bart Riles was a Mexican teenager with an exceptional knowledge of the Nevada desert. When he was shot on his route – whether by accident or ambush, history disagrees – he knew he would not survive the journey. Instead of dismounting, he tied himself to the saddle, trusting that his horse would follow the familiar route to the next relay station. It did, and Riles’ mochila was transferred to a fresh rider and continued on its way, even as Riles died at dawn.

A swift end

For customers, the price of speed was steep. Sending a half-ounce letter initially cost $5, which was roughly 250 times the cost of ordinary mail. The founders hoped this would be a temporary bridge to a lucrative government contract. Unfortunately, that contract never came.

In October 1861, the transcontinental telegraph reached Salt Lake City, completing the wire between east and west. Messages that once took ten days could now travel in minutes. Two days later, the Pony Express announced its closure. Financially, it had been a failure – it grossed $90,000 and lost $200,000. Its founders never secured the government backing they needed. Within a few years, its assets would be absorbed into other companies, eventually landing with Wells Fargo.

Yet its failure didn’t erase its impact. The Pony Express proved that a unified, year-round communication system across the continent was possible. And once it disappeared, it was almost immediately romanticised as a symbol of endurance, ingenuity, and a brief moment when speed depended not on wires or machines, but on human stamina and a galloping horse.

Speed, reconsidered

The Pony Express didn’t fail because it moved too slowly (either literally or metaphorically). It failed because something faster and more efficient arrived. For a brief moment, it solved a real problem and proved what was possible. It reset expectations. But once communication could travel by wire instead of horseback, endurance and effort stopped mattering as much as convenience and cost efficiency.  

Modern businesses face the same reality. Speed is easy now. Messages are instant and channels are everywhere. The scarce resource is clarity. As my experience with the service provider proved, fast responses that don’t answer the question are just noise, no matter how modern the platform.

The lesson of the Pony Express is simple: disruption doesn’t reward motion. It rewards usefulness. And when a better system appears, the old one isn’t remembered for how hard it tried – only for whether it delivered.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (ASP Isotopes | Dipula Properties | Exxaro | Glencore | Sibanye-Stillwater | Woolworths)

The Finance Ghost
-
2
Ghost Bites (ASP Isotopes | Dipula Properties | Exxaro | Glencore | Sibanye-Stillwater | Woolworths)

ASP is already achieving better metrics at Renergen’s helium project (JSE: ISO)

Money and expertise: the magic ingredients

ASP Isotopes has released an update on the Renergen helium project. With bridge loan funding having been put to good use (including the engagement of Kinley Exploration as a drilling and modelling specialist), things are starting to look much better in terms of drilling results and other key metrics.

The plant is now processing around 60% more gas than before, although this is obviously off a soft base. They are also making progress in further monetising the LNG, with 60% of the phase 1 offtake already contracted with industrial customers. The expectation is to achieve positive operational cash flow before the end of 2026.

But of course, the big value sits in the helium. My overall read of this announcement is that ASP is focused on stopping the cash burn by ensuring that the LNG business is working properly. They are obviously working on commercial pathways for helium in the meantime as well.

It all seems sensible to me.

Dipula’s lower-income focused portfolio is doing well (JSE: DIB)

This is fascinating to read alongside recent apparel sector updates

When you read updates from the clothing retailers, they lament the extent of participation in online gambling and blame it for their troubles. I don’t doubt that there’s at least some truth to that, but it cannot possibly be the entire story. This is why it’s important to read the perspective of the landlords as well, particularly as it relates to properties situated near townships, on busy commuter routes and in rural areas.

Dipula Properties gives us a great data point, as 70% of their portfolio sits in this category. A 5% increase in total turnover in the retail portfolio for the quarter ended 31 December 2025 suggests that apparel retailers are struggling more than other retailers. Either that, or some of the listed names in apparel just aren’t managing to participate in the growth story at this lower end of the market, while also failing to appeal to a higher income audience that isn’t spending too much money on gambling. That messy middle is a tough place to play (and invest).

Anyway, back to Dipula we go. Almost all retail categories grew by between 3% and 11%, with cellular and electronics growing the fastest (we’ve also seen this at retailers like Mr Price). Services turnover fell by 2%, the only one in the red.

Provincially, KZN and the Eastern Cape were good for 10% and 8% growth respectively. Limpopo was up 6%, North-West grew 4%, Gauteng and the Free State each did 3% and Mpumalanga managed to dip by 1.5%.

By property type, urban convenience and rural centres were up 6%, while urban township centres increased 3%.

Another trend that we’ve seen among retailers is record Black Friday sales. Dipula has echoed this, noting a pull-forward of sales from December into November.

Dipula also noted that the acquisition of four properties that was announced in August 2025 has now been completed. With a total value of R713.3 million, this is a meaty acquisition. Two of them are industrial assets and two are retail properties.

Exxaro updates the market on the manganese deal (JSE: EXX)

This acquisition was first announced back in May 2025

Exxaro is in the process of acquiring manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH Mauritius. Corporate deals take a long time to close, so companies tend to keep investors updated along the way.

The first transaction includes the acquisition of various stakes, including 100% in Ntsimbintle Mining, 19.99% in Jupiter and 9% in Hotazel (among other assets). These transactions have become unconditional and are expected to close before 27 February.

The Mokala transaction, which involves the acquisition of 51% of Mokala, is still in the process of fulfilling its suspensive conditions. The long stop date has been moved out to 26 February 2027. That seems very far in the future, so I wondered if this might be a typo in the SENS (it would make sense if they meant 2026).

A big finish to the year at Glencore in its copper operations (JSE: GLN)

But investors will have to be patient for a meaningful further increase

Glencore has released its full year 2025 production report. For the second year in a row, they’ve achieved volumes within the guided ranges for the key commodities. That’s a very important performance metric that the market pays close attention to.

Like all the other big dogs in the sector, Glencore is barking at every copper asset it can find. They want to become one of the largest copper producers in the world over the next decade.

With copper production in the second half (H2) being nearly 50% higher than in the first half (H1), it looks very good at first blush. As you dig deeper, you’ll see that full year production in copper was actually down 11%. Another point that cannot be ignored is copper guidance for 2026, which reflects a 1.4% year-on-year decrease at the mid-point of guidance.

They’ve disclosed significant additions to the copper mineral resource base, so hopefully this drives production growth in years to come.

Zinc production was up 7% for the full year. Momentum was good, with volumes up 8% in H2 vs. H1. This is another area where guidance for FY26 is going the wrong way, with a 26% drop at the mid-point of the range.

Steelmaking coal jumped 63% for the full year (thanks to the acquisition of Elk Valley Resources in mid-2024) and 7% in H2 vs. H1, while energy coal dipped 2% for the full year and increased 3% in H2 vs. H1. Guidance for the coal assets suggests flat production in 2026.

Special mention to silver, which is all the rage at the moment: production was up 6% for the full year and 25% in H2 vs. H1!

In terms of average realised prices, copper actually dipped 1% on a 12-month basis. Steelmaking coal fell 16.3%, while energy coal was down more than 20%. Even zinc fell by 1%. Overall, the production story is far more positive than the prices, although a 12-month average isn’t a good reflection of underlying momentum in prices.

Glencore is up 41% over 12 months based on the market’s love affair with emerging markets and anything that has copper in it.

Sibanye-Stillwater has given a detailed strategy presentation (JSE: SSW)

It feels like it’s been a while since I saw a fat deck of slides from them

A couple of years ago, Sibanye-Stillwater used to regularly release gigantic slide packs to the market that would go into tons of detail on the strategic thinking in the group and the approach to the commodity in question. Although there’s clearly been a changing of the guard in the form of a new CEO, it’s good to see that the company hasn’t completely moved away from giving such detailed presentations.

The latest such example is a great overview of the group. It includes some helpful slides on the journey of the company, including its history as a gold miner first and then only a PGM play! It also clearly demonstrates the split across primary mining, secondary mining (tailings) and recycling. Over the past three quarters, they generated 75% of EBITDA from primary mining, 19% from secondary mining and just 6% from recycling.

Aside from the usual stuff, like a focus on reducing costs in the group and being as efficient as possible, there’s a lot of talk around “unlocking value” and “portfolio simplification” – this means selling off non-core assets and focusing on the stuff that is making serious money at the moment. That’s probably the right approach, as Sibanye-Stillwater’s portfolio includes a lot of stuff that doesn’t really make sense in there.

One of the happy outcomes of such a portfolio simplification (and ongoing profits in the core operations) would be a de-risked balance sheet. They are targeting a 50% reduction in gross debt.

The full presentation is well worth checking out. You’ll find it on the Sibanye home page here.

Australia pulls Woolworths down under (JSE: WHL)

The South African businesses are doing well at least

Woolworths released a trading statement dealing with the 26 weeks to 28 December. It includes plenty of detail on the underlying performance, an approach that the market always appreciates.

What the market didn’t appreciate is the expected change in adjusted HEPS (restructure costs / forex / other distortions taken out) of between -2% and 3%. At the mid-point of the range, that’s only slightly positive. With the share price closing 6.2% lower on the day, it’s clear that the market focused on adjusted HEPS instead of HEPS as reported (up by between 7% and 12%).

If you dig deeper, you’ll find that the biggest issues are related to the usual suspect: Australia.

Let’s start with the good news story, right here in South Africa. There’s a nuance here that we need to deal with straight away: this update is for the 26-week period, not just the fourth quarter. It’s therefore not directly comparable to the other retailers in the sector who recently released quarterly updates vs. a very tough two-pot withdrawal base. These Woolworths numbers are impacted by that base, but it’s like comparing a triple-shot cocktail to a single-shot cocktail: they both have tequila, but you won’t taste it as much in the second one.

Credit to Woolworths – they do at least give an indication of trading in the last seven weeks of the period to help us make these comparisons. I’ll deal with that after the 26-week numbers.

Woolworths South Africa grew turnover and concession sales by 6.8% for the 26-week period. Within that, Woolworths Food was good for 7.0% growth, while Fashion, Beauty and Home (FBH) managed 6.2%. This tells us that both parts of the business are performing well at the moment.

The comparable-store picture is even more interesting: Food was up 5.2% and FBH up 6.4%. Price movement was 4.6% in Food and only 2.8% in FBH, implying solid growth in volumes in both businesses. They are expanding trading space in Food (up 4.3%, or 1.8% on a weighted basis) and reducing it in FBH (down 1.9%, weighted basis not disclosed).

In terms of online growth, Woolies Dash grew by a juicy 23% as South Africans chose to shop with their phones instead of their cars to get their hands on the best veggies in the market (with a side of fresh flowers). Online is now 7.2% of local Woolworths Food sales.

Irritatingly, they decided not to disclose the growth rate for online sales in FBH, forcing me to go digging to figure it out. In the comparable period, it was 6.6% of FBH sales, and in this period it was 6.4%. By my maths, this means that sales increased by around 3% (you can work it out based on the total FBH sales growth and how the contribution changed). That’s a bleak performance vs. growth of 25.2% in the prior period. Companies should disclose metrics consistently instead of cherry-picking the good ones.

Looking at momentum, the last seven weeks of the period saw sales growth of 5.3% at Food and 6.1% in FBH, in both cases a deceleration (as expected). This was despite my best efforts in buying a particularly good potato product that they now have.

Any other nuggets? Well, there’s a warning around gross margin in FBH due to inventory clearances, so we will need to wait for detailed results to see that. Another useful metric is that Beauty and Home continues to do very well for them, with those categories up 8.9% and 14.0% respectively. Fashion is a tougher place to play.

Now we need to deal with Australia, where Country Road Group continues to compete in a horrible retail market. Sales were up 2.3% for the period and 2.5% on a comparable-store basis. The last seven weeks were disappointing, with sales up just 1.0%. Despite how hard it all is, net trading space was up slightly by 0.2%, so they aren’t attempting to shrink into prosperity like they’ve done in FBH. The online sales contribution was unchanged at 27.2%, as Australia is a more mature online market.

The share price is down 4% over 12 months. There was some positive momentum recently, but the market response to this update reversed most of it. I’m looking forward to seeing the profitability in South Africa based on these sales numbers, as my suspicion is that Australia is the cause of all the issues and the disappointing growth in adjusted HEPS.

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CFO of Sephaku (JSE: SEP) bought shares worth R655k in on-market trades that are part of the long-term incentive scheme. This is a direct beneficial interest though, so I’m not sure how exactly this relates to the incentive scheme (something I would normally ignore as a director dealing). I’ve therefore included it here.
  • Caxton and CTP Publishers and Printers (JSE: CAT) has decided to pay a special dividend. With over R3 billion in cash at the end of the 2025 financial year, they certainly aren’t short of resources. When you consider that the normal dividend for the year ended June 2025 was only R247.5 million, there’s even more headroom. They’ve decided to put a further R353.5 million into a special ordinary dividend (100 cents per share in the context of a share price of R13.80). Capital discipline is an important thing that investors look out for, so the share price rose 4% in response.
  • Hosken Consolidated Investments (JSE: HCI) has achieved shareholder approval for the Squirewood transaction with SACTWU. It’s been quite complicated to get the structuring right, with HCI trying to help SACTWU with its investment needs, while ensuring that the company’s B-BBEE status is maintained at adequate levels.
  • Ethos Capital (JSE: EPE) has given the market further details on the reinvestment option related to the offer for the residual assets in the group. With Ethos planning to return capital to shareholders from the transaction, there’s an option for qualifying shareholders (i.e. those with at least R1 million in ammo for this investment) to reinvest into the unlisted partnership that will hold these residual assets. Such shareholders would be become limited partners i.e. would have no part in management of the partnership. If this appeals to you, then I suggest you keep a close eye on company announcements.
  • Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GCT) released a net asset value (NAV) update for 31 December 2025. Power generation was 9.1% below budget in Q4, so the variability in this business model continues to come through. They were 10.4% below budget for the full year. Still, they achieved 1.5x net dividend cover, which means that the target dividend for 2025 was met. Sadly, they are targeting a flat dividend for 2026. The balance sheet gearing ratio is 52% and they’ve been successful in extending facilities. Although the NAV per share dipped by around 2.5% for the quarter, the company has reminded the market that the internal rate of return (IRR) on the underlying portfolio is 9.4%, which is around 13% if you adjust for the current share price. South African investors are looking for dividend growth rather than pure currency hedges, so I don’t envy the management team in trying to sell this story at the moment.
  • AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) is fighting with Bonitas Medical Aid Fund. Medscheme (part of AfroCentric) currently has the administration and managed care contracts from Bonitas, due to expire on 31 May 2026. Bonitas ran a Request for Proposal process and has awarded the contracts to a different company. Here’s the thing though: in December, Medscheme filed an urgent application with the High Court (due to be heard in March 2026) to stop the finalisation of the RFP process until the forensic investigation by the Council for Medical Schemes has been completed. Bonitas has finalised the process anyway, so the court hearing in March 2026 has now become very important for all parties involved. I’m grateful that I don’t have to take any of my customers to court to try keep them!
  • Transpaco (JSE: TPC) has been busy with the due diligence related to the acquisition of Premier Plastics, a deal announced in November 2025. With the due diligence out of the way, Transpaco will not acquire the shares in Polyethylene Recoveries Proprietary Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Premier Plastics. There are no other changes to the terms of the deal and no significant new matters.
  • Trustco (JSE: TTO) is suspended from trading and therefore has to release a quarterly update to the market. They’ve been working towards clarification from the JSE on the proposed audit sign-off that would include audit opinions by firms in each of Namibia and South Africa. Based on the current progress of the audit, they expect that the financial statements for the year ended August 2024(!) will likely be completed during Q1 of 2026. This timing depends on the ruling by the JSE regarding the audit process.

Ghost Bites (Datatec | Mr Price | Vukile)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Datatec | Mr Price | Vukile)

Datatec concludes a bolt-on acquisition in Europe (JSE: DTC)

Slow and steady acquisitive growth is the right approach

In a world where executives love doing blockbuster deals and rolling the dice on a grand scale, it’s refreshing to see companies doing bolt-on deals that are so small that they only require a voluntary announcement.

It’s amazing how often you see this approach in a company where the founder still has a large equity stake, like Datatec. There’s a big difference between playing with Other People’s Money vs. your own money, as any banker knows.

Through its subsidiary Westcon-Comstor, Datatec has acquired REAL Security, a cybersecurity distributor in Slovenia. The idea is to get a foothold in the Balkans region, thereby expanding Westcon-Comstor’s European footprint.

As a good example of how sales strategies tend to play out in this space, REAL Security hosts an annual cybersecurity conference in the region. Acting as a thought leader in a particular market is a good indication of the quality of the underlying brand.

The acquisition was effective on 27 January and we won’t get any further details on it, as the deal is too small for there to be a full terms announcement. I see this as a positive thing. After all, a global success story like Bidcorp (JSE: BID) was built in much the same way (small bolt-on deals), albeit in the food service sector.

Mr Price grew sales at the end of 2025 – but not by much (JSE: MRP)

The base period was tough

Despite all the entirely self-inflicted noise around the NKD deal, Mr Price has a strong South African business. In fact, that’s precisely why there is so much frustration around the offshore push! This means that the performance of Mr Price is a decent barometer for the sector as a whole. We’ve already seen what a weak performance looks like, courtesy of Truworths (JSE: TRU). We now get to see what a stronger player was capable of achieving against a very tough base of two-pot withdrawals at the end of 2024.

The answer is: not much. Mr Price’s sales are in the green, but group sales were up just 3.6% for the quarter ended 27 December 2025. The base period was up 10.6%, so the two-year growth stack makes more sense (a two-year compound annual growth rate or CAGR of around 7%). Mr Price’s growth was ahead of the market in this period, so they are winning market share.

Unsurprisingly, Mr Price raises the concern around online betting. This is clearly a worry in the market and one that doesn’t seem to be going away. Overall consumer demand for apparel is weak at the moment, with total unit sales falling 1.5% in an environment where retail selling price inflation was 5.2%.

Mr Price is predominantly a cash retailer (90.9% of total sales), with cash sales up 3.7% vs. credit sales up 2.9% as the group took a cautious approach.

Another interesting element of the Mr Price model is that online sales aren’t growing faster than in-store sales. This is totally different to what we are seeing at players like The Foschini Group (JSE: TFG). Store sales at Mr Price were up 3.6% and online sales increased 3.5%. Trading space also increased by 3.5%.

As you read those numbers, alarm bells should be going off about comparable store sales. After all, the increase in trading space is remarkably similar to the comparable store sales growth. Did they actually grow in their existing space?

Sure enough, comparable store sales for apparel (83.1% of group sales) was up just 0.4%. That’s not enough to offset the inflationary impact of costs at store level.

Moving on to the performance of the brands acquired in recent years, Studio 88 is certainly one of the highlights in this story. It achieved growth of 7.7% during the period vs. a demanding base of 12.3%. Another absolute winner (in Homeware rather than Apparel) is Yuppiechef, up 10.1% this period vs. 26.5% in the base period. I’ll refrain from making bad puns about two-pot savings being spent at Yuppiechef.

The rest of the Homeware segment doesn’t have much to smile about. They actually lost market share, with management noting that they are trying to focus on profitability instead. Comparable store sales were up 1.7% in that segment. This tells us that consumer demand for homeware is stronger than apparel, albeit not by much.

The Telecoms segment, which contributes just 2.9% of group sales, increased sales by 11%. It also achieved better margins. People clearly need phones and airtime for all that online betting!

The sales growth, as light as it was, was only achieved at a lower gross profit margin. Margin fell by 20 basis points for the quarter, although management expects it to be flat for the full year ending March 2026. This will require a strong finish to avoid any stock write-downs, with Mr Price telling a positive story around stock levels.

In the first four weeks of January, sales growth was 4.2% vs. a demanding base of 16.0%. The full Q4 base is 7.6% as sales slowed down a lot at the start of the 2025 calendar year, so that should give them a year-on-year boost as the year comes to a close.

There’s nothing in this announcement to suggest that a bounce-back in apparel is likely this year.

Vukile’s Castellana offloads mature retail properties in Spain (JSE: VKE)

The idea is to reallocate capital to higher growth opportunities

Nostalgia has no place in business. When an asset has reached the point where it no longer meets the risk/reward framework applied by a company, then it’s time to go. This doesn’t mean that the journey was a failure. Quite the contrary – it often means that it was a success!

You see, there are different lenses applied to assets in terms of return requirements. This is especially true in the property game. Funds that actively manage their properties will look for opportunities to increase the value – the classic “fixer-upper” so to speak. Other funds that are just looking to allocate capital across a wide range of properties will look for opportunities that are unlikely to cause headaches. These are “mature” assets.

Vukile Property Fund is in the former bucket, as they are a REIT rather than an institutional investor like a pension fund or similar. This means that when properties have matured, they will look for opportunities to sell them at attractive prices.

This is why Vukile’s Spanish subsidiary, Castellana Properties, will be selling a portfolio of nine retail properties. This has nothing to do with a bearish view on Spain or a change in strategy. It’s merely a reflection of where these properties are in their lifecycle.

Interestingly, Castellana will provide asset and property management services for a period of 5 years and will receive market-standard fees for these services. This tells you a lot about how hands-off the acquirer plans to be – typical of mature assets.

The returns since the properties were acquired in 2017 haven’t exactly been inspiring. Thanks to numerous issues along the way (pandemic / geopolitical), the capital gain over the period has been a total of 13% despite net operating income growing by 26% over that period. It’s a disappointing outcome, but still a positive return despite all the challenges.

The selling price is €279 million at a disposal yield of 7.1% and a discount to the 30 September 2025 valuations of 2.5%. The effective date is 1 April 2026.

Once the deal is done and the money is in the bank, Vukile plans to deploy capital into various opportunities that they already have in the pipeline. They will target higher growth shopping centres that will be earnings accretive to Castellana and Vukile.

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Nictus (JSE: NCS) announced that directors and their associates bought shares worth just over R2.5 million.
  • Independent directors churn all the time on the JSE, so I don’t mention appointments and resignations unless they reflect a change in strategic direction or relate to a change in the chair / lead independent director. At Purple Group (JSE: PPE), Happy Ntshingila has returned as chairperson after completing his pupillage and bar examinations.
  • Trustco (JSE: TTO) is suspended from trading and continues to be deep in the “never a dull moment” bucket. A significant shareholder, Riskowitz Value Fund, is trying to get rid of the current board. The latest is that Trustco has now said that the Legal Shield Holdings transaction, which led to Riskowitz being issued 200 million Trustco shares, is invalid. If they can get that legal angle right, then it would rip away voting power from Riskowitz and make everything much harder in terms of the board changes. My money is nowhere near this thing and I plan to keep it that way.

Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | AVI | Lewis)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | AVI | Lewis)

Accelerate exits another property – and at a modest discount to NAV (JSE: APF)

I remain happily long

Accelerate Property Fund is such a beautiful example of the type of dislocations that can happen in the market. I’m up 46% in this counter thanks to the gap between net asset value (NAV) per share and the share price closing over time. It hasn’t even taken that long to happen, as I waited until the release of the Portside disposal circular last year before I bought.

There’s further good news from the company in the form of the disposal of the Bosveld Bela Bela Shopping Centre for R88 million. The book value is R95 million. Sure, they need to pay commission of 3%, but that’s a discount of just 7.4% to the NAV (before fees). When a share is trading at a vast discount to NAV, a disposal like this does a wonderful job of turning uncertain NAV (property valuations) into certain NAV (cash on the balance sheet).

The disposal yield is around 8.6%, so they achieved a solid price for the sale.

Naturally, the proceeds will be used to reduce debt.

Another important point is that shareholders won’t be asked to vote on the transaction, as this is a Category 2 transaction.

The share price closed flat on the day despite this news. Currently trading at its 52-week high, more investors need to get involved here for the share price to be pushed higher. I’m confident that they will come.

Double-digit HEPS growth expected at AVI (JSE: AVI)

This is despite at least one ugly duckling in the group

AVI is a very good business in the world of branded food and beverages. They do particularly well in snacks as well. And with their I&J business, they have a household name in the seafood space – even if Mother Nature (and catch rates) doesn’t always play along.

Alas, they also have some segments that are like barnacles on their boats. Barnacles get removed because they cause damage and reduce speed. The same fate should befall segments like Footwear and Apparel, and especially Personal Care, where AVI is playing in spaces in which I don’t believe they have a right to win.

For example, the Food and Beverage part of the business (which has three sub-segments) contributed 82% of revenue in the six months to December 2025. Revenue in this area increased by an appealing 6%.

Digging deeper, we find I&J as the growth highlight, up 9.4% thanks to better catch rates and increased capacity from a vessel commissioned in February 2025. Abalone continued to struggle though, with weak selling prices and poor demand in Asia. Snackworks put in a solid performance with 5.9% growth. People will never get tired of Bakers Choice Assorted, no matter how much we care about sugar consumption! Entyce Beverages lagged with 4.5% growth, mainly due to coffee volumes amid higher prices – to the benefit of better tea demand.

As for Fashion Brands (with two sub-segments and an 18% contribution to group revenue), their revenue was flat for the period. This is because Personal Care dropped by 7.2% and Footwear and Apparel was up 3.4%.

The Personal Care result is because of struggles in the deodorant body spray category. Unlike in AVI’s food businesses, they don’t have a strong brand there. In Footwear and Apparel, SPITZ is a brand that you’ll likely recognise, although this sector is a competitive bloodbath at the moment. Much of the latest growth was thanks to a weak base with supply challenges.

Combine these performances and you get group revenue growth of 4.9%. But that’s enough of the revenue story – what about the rest?

Group gross profit margin improved thanks to margin management and the higher contribution from I&J. AVI is famous for cost management, so I’m not surprised to see that this revenue growth translated into higher operating margin.

Net finance costs were flat, with lower interest rates offset by increased average borrowing levels.

By the time we get to HEPS, we find growth of between 10.5% and 12.5%. This is a masterclass in both operating and financial leverage, with the earnings growth rate more than double the revenue growth rate of 4.9%.

Leverage is exactly what AVI is known for. I just wish they could deal with those barnacles!

The share price is up 4.2% in the past year, but the real story is the 16% increase over six months as momentum has picked up. It is trading very close to its 52-week high.

Lewis bucks the weak retail trend with a solid third quarter (JSE: LEW)

Positive sentiment towards the company will be strengthened by this update

After the year got off to a rough start in terms of local retail updates, Lewis threw the market a bone in the form of a SENS announcement detailing the performance for the nine months to December 2025. It looks as though the latest quarter was a manageable deceleration vs. the first six months of the year.

The business model at Lewis depends on substantial credit sales, so it’s important to look at both total merchandise sales (which drives initial gross margin) and total group revenue (which includes the credit and other business lines).

Merchandise sales is the metric that feeds the top of the funnel. For context, it had previously grown by 6.7% for the six months to September (8.9% in Q1 and 4.6% in Q2). The latest update is that Q3 achieved 7.8% growth, an acceleration that was aided by strong Black Friday sales.

Similarly, comparable store sales were up 4.3% for the nine-month period vs. 4.9% for Q3, so there’s a further acceleration.

Other revenue, which would be combined with merchandise sales to get to total revenue, increased by 15.2% for Q3 after growing 16.7% in the first six months. This takes them to 16.2% for the nine months year-to-date.

This slowdown wasn’t due to a lack of credit sales, as credit sales growth was 69.4% of total sales vs. 68.2% in the comparable period. I suspect that the lower interest rates in the market impacted other revenue in the third quarter.

I must flag a deterioration in the collection rate year-on-year, coming in at 78.3% (identical to the first six months) vs. 79.6% in the comparable nine-month period. They saw an uptick in debtor costs to manage the book, flagging growth in the book and overall pressure on consumers. This is something to keep an eye on.

In terms of what they can actually control (i.e. not the prevailing level of interest rates), Lewis appears to have done well. This won’t do any harm to the group’s reputation as a resilient retailer, with the share price up 23.6% in the past year.

For context, Shoprite (JSE: SHP) is down 7.6% over 12 months and Pepkor is up just 1.5% (JSE: PPH). Those are two of the very best retailers we have on the market. I won’t even mention the other apparel retailers, as they were truly slaughtered in 2025.

Lewis stands head and shoulders above the rest of the sector at the moment.

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Mantengu (JSE: MTU) disposed of just under R3 million in shares to a family member.
  • Libstar (JSE: LBR) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a potential acquisition of the company’s shares by a third party. There have been a few cautionary announcements in the past few months that suggested that there was more than one potential investor at the table. At this stage, there’s still no guarantee of a firm offer. The share price is up more than 20% since the first cautionary announcement was released on 16 September.
  • The CFO of Heriot REIT (JSE: HET) has bought a unit in the company’s Fibonacci mixed use sectional title development for R1.2 million. This is a related party transaction, hence it must be announced. This pre-sale is priced in line with what other purchasers in the scheme are paying.

Davos 2026 | Navigating the new disorder

Investec Focus Radio
-
0
Davos 2026 | Navigating the new disorder

Listen to the podcast here:

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos offered fewer illusions, and more realism. The rules-based order is no longer assumed. Geopolitics is now embedded in balance sheets. Scale matters. Delivery matters more.

In the final episode of our Davos Debrief podcast series, Investec Group Chief Executive Fani Titi argues that the defining advantage in today’s global economy is adaptability – the ability of countries and companies to operate amid volatility without waiting for certainty. 

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Scroll down to read the transcript of this conversation.

Also on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

Transcript

00:00 – Introduction 

Jeremy Maggs: Hello, and welcome to No Ordinary Wednesday, an Investec podcast where we step back from the noise to examine the forces shaping the global economy.

This episode brings our three-part Davos Debrief series to a close, recorded on the ground at this week’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Switzerland.

Over the past two episodes, we’ve explored:

·      The global investment landscape with Investec’s Chief Investment Strategist, Chris Holdsworth, and

·      The AI agenda shaping growth with Lyndon Subroyen, Investec’s Global Head of Digital and Technology.

Today, we pull it all together.

Davos 2026 convened around a stark question: how do we cooperate in a more contested world?

From geopolitical fragmentation and trade realignment, to AI disruption, infrastructure constraints and climate-linked capital flows, the tone was serious and pragmatic.

And world leaders didn’t sugar-coat the moment.

  • Ursula von der Leyen argued that Europe must toughen its economic and strategic posture, while strengthening its own resilience and autonomy.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the old rules-based global order can no longer be taken for granted and that countries will need to adapt pragmatically to a more fractured global economy.
  • And US President Donald Trump, in characteristically blunt fashion, had a strongly nationalistic economic posture, emphasising US achievements, critiquing global partners, and asserting US interests.

Against that backdrop, what does all of this mean for South Africa, for Africa, and for institutions like Investec that operate at the intersection of global capital and real-economy delivery?

To explore that, I’m joined by Fani Titi, Group Chief Executive of Investec.

Fani, welcome – and thank you for joining us for this Davos wrap-up.

02:00 – How would you summarise the mood at Davos 2026?

Jeremy Maggs: Fani, you’ve just come out of a week of intense conversations in Davos – private meetings, closed-door sessions, and some very public speeches. How would you summarise the mood of the conference, and what stood out for you?

Fan Titi: I think Davos this year was quite interesting in that the US position on global geopolitics was quite dominant. Europe was anxious to indicate that they can adjust to the new world order, that Europe can be independent, that Europe can in time defend itself. And in fact, that Europe’s economy needs to change in significant ways– that the union must have more united regulation, must be more uniform so that they can compete.

So that was the predominant theme – the American position and how America and the superpowers specifically are acting in the world. And the fact that the old rules-based order is over in this contested space where it appears that might, both economic and military, seem to dictate what happens next. How do countries and companies adjust to that? So that was that was the overall mood.

And second was just the sense that technology is developing at quite a rapid pace, in particular artificial intelligence, and how this may affect countries in terms of how workers may be displaced on the one hand and second, how innovation can be sped up as countries and companies adopt artificial intelligence.

I was a bit disappointed that there wasn’t that much focus on sustainability as much as the theme of the conference talked about prosperity within planetary bounds. That alone is, as you can see, some kind of a deference to Trump because they didn’t call it sustainability as such – “prosperity within planetary boundaries”.

But overall good interactions, really leading thought and practitioners in the place. And I think we will go out of Davos with a lot more to think about and really being able to act differently.

03:54 – What is Davos telling us about the global economy?

Jeremy Maggs: Davos is often criticised as a talk shop, but markets still pay attention to its signals. From your conversations this year, what did Davos tell us about where the global economy is really heading?

Fani Titi: I think there was a sense that while the world has fractured both in terms of traditional alliances, in terms of trade and in terms of the use of power, as it were, that the global economy is still continuing to grow, that there has been a level of resilience.

We’ve seen how China has adjusted to the US tariff policies. And in fact, China has grown over the last year at about 5% or so. The US also is growing at quite a surprisingly rapid pace. We haven’t seen the level of inflation that we expected would be an outcome of the tariff policies that we saw.

I must say though, that tariff levels have settled at lower than was initially anticipated. So that may be that confidence is a little higher despite the level of uncertainty that is within the system at the moment.

04:56 – Is cooperation still realistic?

Jeremy Maggs: The official WEF theme this year was “A spirit of dialogue”, but the reality is a world that’s more fragmented. From where you sit, is cooperation still realistic, or are we simply learning how to do business in a permanently contested global economy?

Fani Titi: I think we have to take the world as it is, not as we would like to see it. So, the old order, as I said, a rules-based global system, is largely over. At the moment you’ve got what Mark Carney called the hegemons – the powerful and the super scalers like China – where you have large production capabilities, you have the scale that can overwhelm smaller markets and smaller countries. So that’s the reality in which we live.

And within that reality, I think that smaller countries and middle countries have to act differently. Understand that scale is important, understand that power is important, and in that context, I think smarter, newer, and more flexible alliances are important.

In fact, Mark Carney talked about a principle of variable geometry where you are very pragmatic, you look for friends and allies and for different outcomes, you may well have different alliances.

But you have to be pragmatic, you have to be clear about national interest, you have to be clear about where you can compete. It’s contested but I think there is still a way for both countries and corporates to do business.

06:20 – How explicitly are geopolitics influencing capital allocation today?

Jeremy Maggs: At Davos this year, geopolitics wasn’t discussed as an abstract risk – it’s being priced directly into supply chains, balance sheets and investment decisions. In your conversations with global banking peers and investors, how explicitly are you seeing geopolitics influence capital allocation today?

Fani Titi: I think you cannot be agnostic to the fact that there is a level of alignment both with respect to trade, both with respect to supply chains and of course to how capital is allocated. And we have to be smart about how we make our decisions.

In the end capital looks for safety, capital looks for returns and where there is a capacity to deliver on projects, I think capital will be able to be sourced.

So, for South Africa, for instance, and for Africa, being able to demonstrate that policies are clear and are pragmatic and reasonable, and that there is a level of delivery on projects and that investors have safety around their investments and that they can get their capital back if and when they want to, to divest of the investments that they have made.

It’s a world still full of opportunity although there is a high degree of uncertainty, and of course it is challenging just given the geopolitics of today.

07:36 – From a UK lens, is stability becoming a competitive advantage again?

Jeremy Maggs: It’s not surprising then that investors are placing a growing premium on policy stability and predictability. From a UK lens, is that stability becoming a competitive advantage again – particularly for long-term capital and financial services firms?

Fani Titi: I think the UK is placed in a rather interesting position. Firstly, the UK has a much closer relationship with the US, in fact, they have been able to negotiate a trade deal that looks fairly competitive, if you look at other trade deals that have been negotiated with the US.

The UK is working to get a lot closer to Europe again. And given that the UK is a fairly small power militarily and economically, I think being able to strike smart alliances with Europe, with Southeast Asia, with China – we saw the Chancellor going to China for some for some discussions.

We’ve actually just seen just this week that the Chinese embassy, the new Chinese embassy, has been approved in terms of a new location and, where China is able to build a much larger embassy and we hope that reciprocally in Beijing, the UK will be able to do that.

So, I think the UK is well placed, but it has to be much smarter around the alliances that that she strikes.

The UK is a very flexible country culturally and has generally been able to attract talent and its proximity to Europe obviously gives it a level of advantage.

I expect more deregulation in the UK. As the current Labour government has indicated with the direction of travel, I expect that they will continue down the policy of being more business friendly.

So, I think while policy stabilises under Labour, the UK remains an attractive investment destination.

For us as Investec, we continue to invest. We are investing in a mid-market corporate capability there, and we continue to invest in our private client strategy.

We are excited about that economy. Our market shares are small in the UK and our ability to be agile and to take opportunity of the changing landscape places us in a very good position there so we are excited about the UK opportunity.

09:43 – Sentiment around emerging markets and global portfolios

Jeremy Maggs: Against a backdrop of a weakening dollar, emerging markets are no longer being framed as “high growth by default”, but as selective opportunities. What was the sentiment around where EMs fit into global portfolios today?

Fani Titi: Look, I think you’ve seen a lot of flows into emerging markets. You’ve seen strengthening of certain currencies like the South African rand, as the economic outlook and policy certainty has moved rather positively. And I think in a world that is so contested, diversification is quite important.

As we go forward, we hope that risk premia around emerging markets will reduce allowing for better capital deployment into those economies, better growth and better allocation into emerging markets. So, we are hopeful about capital flows and investment flows into emerging markets.

10:36 – What would unlock faster capital deployment into African infrastructure?

Jeremy Maggs: Talking of emerging markets, one consistent Africa theme at Davos was that capital is available, but infrastructure – energy, logistics, digital – remains the binding constraint. From an investor perspective, what would unlock faster capital deployment into African infrastructure?

Fani Titi: I think there were lot of discussions on the continent of Africa, and I think there is within Africa a realisation that we have to have more free trade – a movement of goods and a movement of people.

Regulatory inconsistency and payment rails within the continent need to improve much more significantly.

And of course, investment in digital infrastructure. For instance, when you think when you think about cloud and you think about data centres – those require energy lots of energy and we know that Africa has a number of countries being constrained in terms of energy. So, there are a number of these constraints that have to be dealt with, but Africans are on top of it.

I was very encouraged in one of the meetings on how to improve the digital infrastructure to enable trade intra-Africa and how to strengthen the African Continental Free Trade Agreement going forward. A lot more happening.

With respect to South Africa and the continent, you have seen more investment into the continent, in fact we saw a very interesting announcement by Nedbank that they have bid to take control of a bank in Kenya. We’ve heard similar noises from our competitors in South Africa. So, I think the African opportunity is there.

Africa has the benefit of demographics. And in fact, by the turn of this century probably close to 20-25% of the workforce of the world will be African. So, if policy can develop much more rapidly, if free trade can develop much more rapidly, if infrastructure investment can develop, Africa can benefit hugely from its demographic dividend.

12:29 – In this global environment, what does good leadership look like?

Jeremy Maggs: One of the most striking things at WEF2026 was how leaders sounded fiscally, politically and institutionally. In this environment, what does good leadership actually look like? And what separates countries and companies that adapt successfully from those that fall behind?

Fani Titi: I think the answer is in the question. How do countries adapt to a changing environment? There’s a level of uncertainty. Old norms are no longer in place. So, an ability to clearly understand the changing landscape and to be clear about where as a country or as a company you are positioned, what are your natural advantages – whether it be with respect to countries, is it location? Is it natural resources? Is it technology and people talent? Understanding those and understanding how in a fractured world you can be pragmatic, you can be adaptable and you can think of self-interest within the context of a competitive world.

So, I think understanding and accepting that there is volatility, there is change, there is fast pace of change given technology that you have to be agile. That applies equally to countries as it applies to companies.

And being able to strike partnerships. As an example, for us as Investec, we have a number of technology partnerships. For instance, with Microsoft, we had a good opportunity to talk to some of the leaders at Microsoft to see how we can strengthen our partnership. We use them for cloud, we use them for a lot of our enterprise capabilities. That’s how partnership enables a company to move forward. But you have to be agile.

You have to be adaptable as you indicated in your question and really have to be courageous because in most cases you will not be certain of what is around the corner. As an example, in 2020, we thought we were onto a good path and COVID was around the corner.

In today’s, world geopolitics dominates what we have to deal with. America used to be a source of stability, it is now to a large extent a source of volatility and instability. So, understanding these changes and being ready to be pragmatic and to act with speed and with courage.

16:17 – Key takeaways from WEF2026

Jeremy Maggs: If there are three takeaways global investors and business leaders should carry with them from Davos 2026, what would they be?

Fani Titi: I suppose the fact that we are in a world that is contested where the old rules and norms that we had gotten used to, and that offered a level of protection, that those are no longer in place.

When you think about investing, either in a business or in a country, you’ve got to think quite heavily about geopolitically how that country is positioned.

Understanding how the leadership of a country, the leadership of a business is adaptable, pragmatic, and they can think clearly through the cloud of uncertainty that is out there.

Also, for countries and for companies, understanding how they’re embracing technology and how they’re harnessing the power of technology.

And for countries understanding the impact, for instance, on their populations of technology, are there education systems in countries adaptable enough and of the kind of quality that can take advantage of the change in in the landscape?

And just generally understanding whether for countries specifically whether their governance is of the right quality to ensure continued competitiveness within a challenging world.

I think it’s a world where if you are minded to see opportunity within the landscape of risk and volatility, you can do well. So, quality of leadership, the ability to adapt and being pragmatic really and striking partnerships and alliances that make sense. That will define countries that win, that will define companies that win.

Ghost Bites (Cashbuild | Pan African Resources | Spear REIT)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Cashbuild | Pan African Resources | Spear REIT)

Cashbuild paints a worrying picture about our economy (JSE: CSB)

Where is the consumer discretionary spending?

In theory, Cashbuild should be doing well. There’s no load shedding. Interest rates have come down (a bit). The rand is getting stronger all the time. And yet, the share price fell 6.8% on Monday in response to poor sales in the second quarter.

The metric that matters is same-store growth, which they disclose based on stores that existed before July 2024. Cashbuild South Africa is the most important business (83% of group sales), so I’ll also focus there for now. Sadly, after a 5% increase in same-store sales in the first quarter of the year, they suffered a 1% decline in the second quarter. Yuck.

It gets even worse in the other segments, with P&L Hardware clearly still struggling with a drop of 11% in Q1 and 10% in Q2. Cashbuild recently acquired Amper Alles in December, so I’m hoping that business will turn out a lot better than P&L Hardware.

With the impact of new stores included, the second quarter was up 1% for Cashbuild South Africa and for the total group. The market is smarter than that though, with same-store sales as the important focus area.

The typical relationship between inflation and volumes just isn’t coming through. Inflation was only 0.8% at the end of December, yet same-store volumes fell by 1% in the second quarter. If inflation comes down and volumes don’t move higher, retailers very quickly have a bad time.

The share price is down 26% over 12 months. It rallied nicely into the end of 2025, but this update will likely take the wind right out of their sails. There’s certainly no wind in their sales!

Pan African Resources is printing cash (JSE: PAN)

Gold production is way up at exactly the right time

Pan African Resources was the fighter that I chose in the gold sector last year. My average purchase price is R8.64 per share. Currently trading at R31.52 per share, that’s a delicious 264% return!

This isn’t just because of the gold price, although that’s obviously the main driver. I loved the fact that Pan African would be ramping up gold production significantly. My thesis at the time was that the company offered a combination of gold price exposure and production upside.

So far, so good – it’s beaten the sector over the past year, although there was money to be made everywhere:

The latest from the company is an operational update for the six months to December 2025. With gold production up by 51%, they have such a good story to tell. They expect the run-rate to improve even further in the second half.

Still, it’s not a perfect result.

The first blemish on this story is that the Mogale Tailings Retreatment operations are running at roughly 10% lower than expected in terms of production. They have increased capacity and hope to see improved recoveries.

The second blemish is that all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of production has come in way above guidance. They expected between $1,525/oz and $1,575/oz, but they’ve come in at between $1,825/oz and $1,875/oz!

The stronger rand has hurt them by a substantial $115/oz, while higher share-based payments (due to the share price performance) are responsible for another $80/oz. There were a couple of other operational factors as well. They do at least expect the costs per ounce to improve in the second half, although the ongoing trajectory of the rand won’t help.

I must of course point out that the weaker dollar and the higher gold price are linked concepts. It’s pretty unlikely that we would have one without the other right now.

Looking at the balance sheet, net debt has dropped by more than 65% to below $50 million. Such is the level of profitability at the moment that the company expects to be a debt-free mining house by February 2026, an astonishing outcome when you consider the extensive recent investment in capacity (and the record dividend paid in December).

Speaking of the dividend, they intend to pay 12 cents per share as an interim dividend. This is important because it would be the company’s first-ever interim dividend. They are making so much money that they need to pay it out twice a year!

As you would expect, there are further expansion opportunities in the pipeline. They are planning to complete a definitive feasibility study for the Soweto Cluster Tailings Storage Facilities by June 2026. At Tennant Mines in Australia, various targets for further exploration have been identified.

I am a happy shareholder.

Spear REIT upgrades full-year earnings guidance (JSE: SEA)

The Western Cape growth story continues

Spear REIT may be focused on the Western Cape, the property jewel of South Africa, but that doesn’t mean that they can afford to throw capital at every opportunity that they find. Cape Town is the furthest thing from a hidden gem, as everyone knows that it is the most desirable city in the country. This means that properties in the region carry a valuation premium that can easily catch you out if you get too hot for the deal.

This is why you’ll hear management talk about their underweight exposure to highly priced retail assets, although they are still willing to do selective deals in this space (like Maynard Mall). For the most part, Spear loves industrial assets that tap into the underlying growth in the Western Cape.

Acquisitions during the 10 months to December 2025 were made at an average acquisition yield of 9.54%. This is above their weighted average cost of capital (a good thing). It’s also a reminder of how difficult it is to make money from property without a corporate balance sheet that has a low cost of borrowing. If you ask the bank for money, you’ll be doing well to get it below 9.5%.

These acquisitions have taken the loan-to-value back to 25%, slightly lower than the 27% as at February 2025. The half-year results were an anomaly of under 14% based on the timing of major disposals and acquisitions. Operating in the mid-20s is a very healthy level for a REIT and is well below many of the other players in the market.

With occupancy rates at their highest since the pandemic, Spear is executing well. They also note that tenants reported strong trading over the festive season. This is interesting, as we aren’t exactly seeing this coming through in the updates from the major retailers thus far this year. It’s important to remember that Spear’s Western Cape portfolio isn’t necessarily representative of the performance for national chains.

Having achieved distributable income per share growth of 5.7% for the 10 months to December 2025, the fund has upgraded its full-year guidance to reflect expected growth of between 5% and 6%. I went back and checked their interim results for the previous guidance, and found that it was between 4% and 6%. In other words, the upgraded guidance is a positive shift in the mid-point rather than the top of the guided range.

Spear is trading on a dividend yield of 7% and achieved share price growth of nearly 22% in the past year. That’s been a much easier way to generate returns from the Western Cape property market than the alternative of sending out rental invoices and calling out the plumber when your tenant’s taps are broken!

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Here’s a meaty trade: an associate of a director of Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP) sold shares worth R35.4 million. The director in question is Stanley Goetsch, not a member of the Saltzman family.
    • The CEO and CFO of Clicks (JSE: CLS) each bought shares in the company. The combined value of the purchases is almost R2 million. Will this do anything to address the slide in the price?
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Ninety One (JSE: N91 | JSE: NY1) sold shares earlier this month to the value of R1.4 million. The share price has rallied significantly since then, so that must be rather frustrating.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Southern Sun (JSE: SSU) sold shares worth R551k.
  • Fortress Real Estate (JSE: FFB) announced that Moody’s has affirmed its credit rating and its stable outlook. Access to finance and an attractive cost of borrowing are key inputs for the economics of property funds, so this is good news.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) has appointed Maxim Group LLC as its general advisor in the US. I wonder whether they feel that the best chance for the company is to sell the bitcoin treasury company story overseas – although such things already exist there, so I’m not 100% sure what their unique selling proposition would be. I guess that’s why they’ve chosen to work with an advisor! Perhaps I’m wrong and they are going to promote the credit fund instead, which is by far the most interesting business in the group. This advice from Maxim doesn’t come for free of course. The company is paying Maxim in shares, with a fee equal to around 4% of currently issued share capital, issued in various tranches in 2026.
  • Mahube Infrastructure (JSE: MHB) announced in December 2025 that Sustent Holdings would be making an offer for the shares and delisting the company. Interestingly, Mahube has now announced that an entity called Five Words Capital has taken a 5.01% stake in the company. I’m not sure what’s going on in the background here, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
  • When companies have significant development costs ahead and are tight on cash (like junior mining houses), they tend to look for opportunities to settle fees in shares rather than cash. Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) has taken this route with the issuance of shares to Gathoni Muchai Investments (yes, the investor that took forever to put in cash) and company executives in lieu of historical fees. A total of 6.56 million shares are being issued. The company will have 127 million shares outstanding after this issuance.
  • aReit (JSE: APO) is still suspended from trading. They are looking for a new auditor, while trying to get the previous auditors to sign off the financials for the year ended December 2023. Long-time readers will remember my somewhat blunt views on this one when it listed.

Ghost Bites (Mr Price | Reinet | Valterra Platinum)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Mr Price | Reinet | Valterra Platinum)

Mr Price pushes ahead with the NKD deal (JSE: MRP)

The investor presentation on 17 March is going to have a spicy Q&A session

Despite considerable criticism in the market from major institutional and retail investors alike, Mr Price is pushing ahead with the acquisition of NKD in Europe.

At this stage, the major outstanding condition is approval under the European Commission’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation. Hilariously, if that condition fails, it would probably be the best near-term catalyst for the share price!

It’s unlikely to fall through though, as I can’t see why there would be any sensitive regulatory hurdles for Mr Price in this deal. This means that investors will grill management at the investor presentation scheduled for 17th March. I sincerely hope the webcast will allow for a proper Q&A, otherwise the entire thing really is a farce.

Reinet’s NAV fell 1% in the past quarter (JSE: RNI)

The bigger questions are around the plans once Pension Insurance Corporation is sold

Reinet has been taking transformative steps in recent times. They sold their stake in British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI) in early 2025. Then, in mid-2025, they agreed to sell the stake in Pension Insurance Corporation to Athora Holding. This deal is expected to close in 2026.

What will be left, you ask? If you can imagine a bag of Liquorice Allsorts, you’re on the right track.

Based on the latest accounts, Pension Insurance Corporation is 51% of the group NAV. A whopping 32.9% of the group NAV is sitting in cash and liquid funds. Your eyes are not deceiving you – just over 16% of the group NAV is sitting in other investments (net of small liabilities and minority interests). And within that bag of sweeties, you really will find all shapes and sizes.

It’s easiest to just show you the extent of diversification by pulling this table from the latest report:

Nobody in the market is going to queue up to pay a premium valuation for such a diversified basket of random investment funds, so the real question is around Reinet’s plans for the extensive cash on the balance sheet – especially once Pension Insurance Corporation is sold.

Surprisingly (and perhaps disappointingly), there is no share buyback programme in progress. The lack of buybacks suggests that they have earmarked other uses for the cash in 2026. I hope that it will be a large acquisition that becomes the new cornerstone asset in the group.

The NAV per share of €36.24 (around R691) is significantly higher than the share price of R570. The discount to NAV of 17.5% is less than you’ll see in most investment holding companies, but that’s because such a big chunk of the NAV is sitting in cash. This discount gives further support to the argument that they should already be doing share buybacks, hence they must have something important planned for the cash as they aren’t taking that route.

Speaking of the NAV, we were given a clue earlier in the week as to the direction of travel. Reinet releases the underlying fund NAV before they release the group NAV. It’s therefore not a surprise to see a decline of 1% in the NAV per share from September 2025 to December 2025.

Valterra Platinum had a truly spectacular second half (JSE: VAL)

This is why share prices have been running so hard

All share prices are forward-looking by nature, but none more so than mining stocks. Daily moves are based on commodity prices, with financial reporting only catching up way down the line and showing us why the share price moved several months ago.

When PGM stocks started rallying in 2025, they were still releasing very uninspiring results for the first part of 2025. PGM prices were moving sharply higher, so the market knew that results in the second half of 2025 would be much better. At last, we’ve reached a stage where we are starting to see confirmation of that performance through the release of financial results.

In a trading statement covering the year ended December 2025, Valterra Platinum has flagged a jump in HEPS of between 85% and 105%. Yes, at the mid-point, that means they nearly doubled their earnings! This is for the full year, not just the second half, so it shows you how exciting the second half was. For context to just how nutty the year was, HEPS in the first half was down by 81%!

What does that look like in absolute terms? Headline earnings was R1.2 billion in the first half. In the second half, it was between R14.4 billion and R16.1 billion. Even when you think you’re numb to the effect of PGM cycles, it’s still wild to see numbers like these.

There’s an important nuance here, as the trend cannot be entirely attributed to PGM prices. In the first half of the year, flooding at Amandelbult had a significant impact on output. Although insurance proceeds of R2.5 billion were received (yet another skew to the timing), this still resulted in lower sales volumes in FY25 vs. FY24. The significant increase in PGM basket prices essentially rescued the period.

In case you’re wondering, the share price is up 178% in the past year!

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • There’s a reshuffling of the Wiese family exposure in Invicta (JSE: IVT). Adv JD Wiese’s Mayborn Investments sold R5.3 million in shares to Titan Premier Investments (a Christo Wiese entity of which JD Wiese is also a director). Some families pass the tomato sauce to each other around the table; others pass millions of rands worth of shares.
    • A trust linked to the CEO of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) received shares worth around R350k in lieu of cash dividends. This is part of the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) offered by the company.
  • Farewell, Barloworld (JSE: BAW) – the iconic name will be delisted from the JSE on 27 January after the acquiring company utilised the squeeze-out mechanic to acquire all the remaining shares in issue.
123...243Page 1 of 243

Focuses on making market news and investment concepts accessible, understandable and fun!

Ghost Mail is free to read

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Partner with Ghost Mail

CONTACT US

© Ghost Mail

Verified by MonsterInsights