Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Subscribe
Home Blog

Ghost Bites (KAL Group | Metair | Pick n Pay | Vodacom)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (KAL Group | Metair | Pick n Pay | Vodacom)

Double-digit HEPS growth at KAL Group (JSE: KAL)

This looks like a strong outcome for shareholders

KAL Group has released a trading statement for the six months to March 2026. They’ve given some helpful underlying details around the drivers of performance, with HEPS expected to be up by between 10.5% and 14.5%.

Recurring HEPS, also an important metric, is up by between 13.1% and 17.1%. That’s a great set of numbers for investors, with the share price up 18.5% over the past 12 months.

To achieve this growth, KAL managed a 4.8% increase in retail revenue, a 7.4% increase in agri input revenue and a 6.7% increase in fuel volume sales.

My concern here would be the impact of the rapid increase in fuel prices on the fuel business in the second half of the year. A higher fuel price is worse for retail fuel businesses, not better. As I understand it, the retailer makes a similar amount per litre regardless of the fuel price, but consumption drops when prices skyrocket. It also means that consumers have less money to spend at the forecourt shop.

Still, on a modest Price/Earnings multiple and with a solid underlying business, they will hopefully weather the storm without too much pain for investors.

I’m curious – how do you plan to respond to higher fuel prices?

224
Fuel flexibility

How will you respond to much higher fuel prices?

Metair has achieved some breathing room on the balance sheet (JSE: MTA)

But at what cost?

Metair always seems to be on the receiving end of bad luck. But for once, they’ve been thrown a bone by the universe in the form of a refinanced debt package for the “SA Obligor” group.

In simple terms, the reference to “SA Obligor” means the debt linked to Hesto Harnesses and the remaining South African subsidiaries. When banks start carving up groups and lending based on specific underlying assets, you know the risks are tricky to manage.

Despite plenty of concern about the underlying automotive manufacturing industry, as well as the difficulties in turning AutoZone around (remember that it was acquired out of business rescue), Standard Bank has approved a refinancing of the debt package. This extends the term of the full R3.3 billion to five years, with a structured repayment profile that is closely aligned with the group’s expected earnings growth and cash flows.

Importantly, this takes into account the capex in the year ending December 2026. A feature of Metair’s business is that they incur significant capex when an underlying customer introduces a major new vehicle model. This means that a structured debt package rather than a traditional amortising loan is required.

Another critical improvement to the package is that the cumulative EBITDA performance hurdle has been removed. The group has been operating under the extreme pressure of quarterly EBITDA targets, something that is very difficult for a business like Metair. This gives them more flexibility and reduces the risk of forced equity raises and asset disposals.

They aren’t quite done yet, with a working capital facility of R600 million that will be subject to review during the third quarter of this year. For now at least, they’ve got room to breathe on the term debt.

And the cost of debt, you ask? The SENS announcement doesn’t confirm this. They simply note that the reference rate has changed from JIBAR to ZARONIA (no surprise there). I suspect that this additional balance sheet flexibility has come at a cost.

If you’re keen to learn more about Metair, you can check out the recording of the very recent Unlock the Stock presentation and Q&A session here.

Pick n Pay moves into a s189 process at store level (JSE: PIK)

They are trying to address their cost base

Pick n Pay’s turnaround has faltered recently. Well, to be honest, I’ve always been bearish on it, but the last set of numbers confirmed my beliefs that it would be much harder than most people realise.

Having upset the market back in February with a trading update, Pick n Pay has now announced a s189 process aimed at resetting the store labour model. They are specifically targeting scheduling flexibility and benefits and allowances, particularly those that aren’t in line with peers. The objective isn’t to reduce head count, although I’m sure the changes to remuneration will lead to some attrition along the way.

It’s important for the sustainability of companies to make sure they are running efficiently. It’s also a reminder that bad strategies lead to poor outcomes for all stakeholders, including employees. Head office employees have already been through retrenchment and salary freeze processes. They now need to unlock savings at store level.

On The Money Show with Stephen Grootes on Monday evening, I discussed the Pick n Pay situation and the immense difficulties they face in a wildly competitive grocery market. Specifically, I talked about Pick n Pay’s “right to win” (or lack thereof). You’ll find the segment here (8 minutes long).

The share price is down 32% over 12 months. It’s fallen by a nasty 23% on a year-to-date basis.

Even Vodacom is a growth company these days (JSE: VOD)

With macroeconomics holding steady, HEPS has jumped sharply

Get ready for a potentially significant move in Vodacom on Tuesday. The company released a trading statement after market close on Monday and it tells quite the positive story.

For the year ended March 2026, Vodacom’s HEPS increased by between 20% and 25%. That’s a really impressive growth rate, particularly for the telco that has historically been seen as the “safe” choice vs. sector wild child MTN (JSE: MTN).

Vodacom has upped the risk in recent years in pursuit of growth, with deals like the major push into Egypt. If the macroeconomics can keep it together in East Africa and Egypt, then Vodacom can pull off growth rates that will attract some attention away from rivals.

Results of previous poll:

Nibbles:

  • Trematon (JSE: TMT) has released the circular dealing with the proposed disposal of Club Mykonos Langebaan. This is a related party deal that would get this resort off Trematon’s balance sheet. The company uses the circular to remind investors that the original investment thesis was to obtain a casino licence. It was subsequently disposed of in 2017 for a “significant return” – leaving them with the fixed property and limited ways to really move the dial for shareholders. Then again, the Trematon CEO and related parties seem to want to own the asset, so this is where the inherent conflict of interest becomes difficult. The independent board justifies the deal by noting that a sale to an unrelated third party would require an extensive due diligence and more onerous profit warranties. Whilst there is truth to this argument, shareholders should always be alert to situations where companies are transacting with executive managers. You can read the circular here.
  • It’s technically still early days in the AttBid offer to RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) shareholders, but there aren’t many acceptances at this point. Holders of only 0.4% of shares in issue have accepted the offer. Together with the current holdings of AttBid and Atterbury Property Fund (including some additional recent purchases), this would take the concert parties to a stake of 44.05%. The offer closes on 29 May, so there are still a few weeks to go. I’ve observed in other deals that most shareholders wait until the last minute to accept these things, preserving their optionality along the way.
  • Nampak (JSE: NPK) has announced the appointment of Thiru Naicker as CFO with effect from 1 August 2026, replacing Glenn Fullerton. Thiru has held a number of senior executive roles in the FMCG space, with the most recent being as Senior Finance Director Supply Chain at PepsiCo South Africa. This sounds like strong operational appointment rather than a helicopter CFO. Given Nampak’s business model, that makes a lot of sense.
  • A sad day at Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) and a reminder of how dangerous the mining sector still is – during a route shaft inspection at the Kloof 8 shaft, an inspection platform detached and led to the fatal injury of two contractor employees. Shaft operation has been stopped while investigations take place.
  • Numeral (JSE: XII) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding the restatement of the financials for the year ended February 2025. At this stage, the restatements remain subject to completion of the audit and are in line with the information announced by the company on 22 April.

Ghost Bites (Clientèle | Glencore | Merafe | MTN | Santova)

The Finance Ghost
-
1
Ghost Bites (Clientèle | Glencore | Merafe | MTN | Santova)

Dividend darling Clientèle wants to delist (JSE: CLI)

When shares trade at a discount for long enough, this is what happens

Clientèle is one of the companies on the JSE that has historically offered a fat dividend yield. This is because the market isn’t willing to pay up for the shares, despite the company generating decent growth at times.

Lack of liquidity in the shares creates a structural impediment for the valuation, as it means that institutional investors struggle to get involved here.

This creates the perfect conditions for a buyout offer.

In this case, Clientèle is giving investors a chance to remain invested in the delisted company. It’s always worth remembering that liquidity in unlisted companies is close to zero, so investors must think carefully here.

The offer price is 85% of the embedded value per share as at December 2025, which implies a base price of around R19.25. Before the news of the offer, the shares were trading at only R16.

The offer price escalates over time, with the company assuming an offer price of R19.90 with a payment date of 29 June 2026. An independent expert opinion on this price will be included in the circular that will be distributed to shareholders in due course.

It’s worth noting that there is also a process that will allow executive directors and members of management to subscribe for up to 4.8 million shares at the same price as the offer price. This will be funded by Clientèle Life on favourable terms, so you can essentially think of this as a management incentivisation programme.

There’s a maximum acceptance condition in this deal. If more than 8% of the offer shares are tendered in the offer, then the entire deal falls over. This should be fine, as irrevocable undertakings not to accept the offer are in place from holders of 93.08% of shares.

Holders of 30.74% of shares eligible to vote have already provided irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of the delisting. There’s still a long way to go here, as they need 75% approval for the delisting.

The announcement also notes that Acacia Empowerment Investors (a subsidiary of the Hollard Foundation Trust) will invest over R270 million in new shares in Clientèle. This will help address the challenge of Black Ownership, which has dipped below 10%. It will also do wonders for Clientèle’s post-offer balance sheet. Technically, this subscription for shares isn’t inter-conditional with the delisting.

Glencore is telling a bullish story after Q1 (JSE: GLN)

With the share price up 40% year-to-date, the market was expecting nothing less

Glencore has released its production report for the first quarter of 2026. They’ve reiterated guidance for full year 2026, so things have gone to plan thus far in terms of production.

This doesn’t mean that there aren’t huge percentage movements on a year-on-year basis (like cobalt production down 39% and copper up 19%). It just means that they are running more or less in line with internal expectations and forecasts.

In the mining operations, the energy price spike is putting pressure on input costs. For now at least, price increases in commodities like copper, zinc and energy coal are more than offsetting the cost impacts, so Glencore has flagged margin expansion as a likely outcome this year.

But the real treat lies in the Marketing business, essentially Glencore’s energy trading activities. Glencore’s team has a reputation for being the Wall Street bankers of the mining sector. As the market expected, their brains trust made a killing this quarter. If they keep up the performance seen in Q1, they will “comfortably exceed” the top end of the long-term adjusted EBIT guidance range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion.

Remember: volatility is how trading houses make their money. This is exactly why I have long-term investments in US banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs – global equity markets are highly interconnected places that regularly dish up dislocations that can be taken advantage of. Glencore does much the same thing in energy markets, so those who hit the BUY button on this stock in response to the war in Iran are certainly smiling.

Merafe should have an answer on electricity tariffs by June (JSE: MRF)

A public participation process will take place in May

Merafe shareholders are anxiously awaiting a solution to the crisis facing the company’s ferrochrome smelters. This is also relevant to shareholders in other companies like Afrimat (JSE: AFT), where the pain in the industry is being felt further up the value chain.

Engagements with Eskom and NERSA have been encouraging, with Eskom and Merafe agreeing on a proposed tariff that has been submitted to NERSA for consideration and approval.

A public participation process for the tariff will be held on 25 May. NERSA expects to publish a final decision by 15 June. Merafe is pushing the regulator as hard as possible, as a section 189 retrenchment process at Merafe hinges on the outcome.

MTN continues to print money in Nigeria (JSE: MTN)

The relative strength of the naira is supporting earnings

With Nigeria as a major oil producer, the recent spike in the oil price is supporting the economic story in that country. The naira actually strengthened against the US dollar during the first quarter of the year, giving MTN Nigeria a buffer against capex and other inflationary pressures.

This is really important, as currency movements have historically been a huge headache for MTN’s ambitions in the country. With all outstanding foreign currency loans repaid, they’ve derisked the business significantly.

The latest results are great, with service revenue up by a meaty 41.9%. You would expect data revenue to be doing well (up 56.2%), but a significant increase in voice revenue of 22.5% is a reminder that Nigeria is a frontier market with immense upside.

EBITDA jumped by 68.1%, with EBITDA margin expanding by 8.7 percentage points to 55.3%.

Capex increased by 92.8%, serving as the perfect reminder of how currency weakness can take capex to really difficult levels. Even with the strength of the naira, capex increased at a much faster rate than EBITDA. This is why free cash flow was up by “only” 55.6%.

MTN Nigeria is investing in network capacity and quality while the going is good. This is a sensible strategy, as they are playing the long game in the country. With smartphone penetration up by 5.5 percentage points to 66.2%, the growth opportunity in areas like data is clear.

Notably, with diesel costs locked in for Q1 and Q2, they have indicated a potential negative impact of 180 – 200 basis points on full year EBITDA margin if costs remain elevated. This is due to the energy component of tower lease costs.

At corporate level, they are looking at separating the fintech businesses from the rest of MTN Nigeria. This will allow MTN Group Fintech to take a 60% stake, with MTN Nigeria holding 40%. Activity like this is aimed at creating different entry points in the group for investors with specific mandates e.g. those who are only interested in the fintech business.

You might be wondering about the suspension of airtime credit services and the impact this had on the Optasia (JSE: OPA) share price. Optasia is down 11.5% year-to-date, with one of the factors being that MTN Nigeria has simply switched off the airtime and data credit offering due to the implementation of new regulatory processes.

Here’s the real concern though:

“Following the initial impact of the suspension, recharge patterns have continued to normalise as affected customers settle outstanding balances and maintain service usage. This has supported a progressive recovery in revenue driven by higher self-funded recharges.”

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but if MTN Nigeria can just switch off Optasia and then see a normalisation in demand, what exactly is Optasia’s moat?

Now that we’ve covered both Glencore and MTN today, give me your views on investing in the oil theme:

229
Oil price spike

What is your preferred way to play the oil game?

Santova clawed back some lost ground in the second half (JSE: SNV)

The full-year HEPS decline is far better than the interim numbers were

Santova has released a trading statement for the year ended February 2026. They have flagged a decline in HEPS of between 4.9% and 9.9%.

That’s not great of course, but it’s a whole lot better than the nasty decline in HEPS of 23.1% that shareholders were asked to stomach for the six months to August 2025.

Santova’s share price has bounced back strongly since the immense pressure it came under in the aftermath of those interim numbers:

With a 52-week low of R6.11 and a spot price of R8.15, those who bought the dip are solidly in the green. Investors will have to wait for 26th May to get the details on the improved financial performance in the second half of the financial year.

Results of the previous poll:

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A director of Sasol (JSE: SOL) sold shares worth R2.25 million. The share price has more than doubled year-to-date thanks to the oil price spike.
    • An associate of a director of South Ocean Holdings (JSE: SOH) bought shares worth R193k.
  • In case you wanted more details on the excellent recent performance at CMH (JSE: CMH), the company has made the analyst presentation available on its website here.
  • MC Mining (JSE: MCZ) released an activities report for the three months to March 2026. They suspended operations at Uitkomst Colliery with effect from 1 March, so they are looking to minimise the pain there while they deliver the far more exciting Makhado Project. Kinetic Development Group has a 51% stake in MC Mining after investing a further $6 million during April 2026. This capital, along with the previous investments by Kinetic, is being used to develop Makhado into South Africa’s largest hard coking coal producer. Development work was slow at the beginning of the quarter due to flooding, but picked up towards the end. Hot commissioning activities and the start-up of the coal plant are scheduled for May 2026.
  • South32 (JSE: S32) released an update on the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project at Hermosa in the United States. Infill drilling programs have taken the life-of-mine to 33 years, an increase of 5 years since the final investment approval. At the adjacent Peake deposit, exploration activities have increased the Mineral Resource estimate by 32%. Unfortunately, there seem to be performance issues with the development contractor, with first production now expected in H2 FY28 and nameplate capacity by FY31. They are putting $3.3 billion into this project, with expected steady-state EBITDA of $650 million and a net present value of $3.1 billion. If spot prices hold, which is a very big “if”, then EBITDA would be $800 million and the net present value would be $4.5 billion. Mining development is a game of educated guesses.
  • Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) released a quarterly update that reflects the company’s transition from an explorer to a base metals producer. The main achievement during the quarter was the finalisation of the agreements for the prepayment facility and concentrate offtake with Glencore (JSE: GLN). They are aiming to complete the remaining conditions precedent in the second quarter. The broader plan for the year is to commence the construction of the Uppers at Prieska Copper Zinc Mine and to finalise the optimisation studies at the Okiep Copper Project. Another useful milestone was the selection of Orion’s Northern Cape exploration portfolio for the 2026 BHP Xplor accelerator programme.
  • Kore Potash (JSE: KP2) added its name to the list of quarterly operating updates. There are various workstreams underway at the Kola Project. There’s also a party busy with a due diligence process on potentially acquiring the entire company, so current shareholders might be out of this thing before it even reaches production. But for now, absolutely nothing is guaranteed. The company had $8.3 million in cash as at 31 March 2026 to fund ongoing activities. They continue to engage with OWI-RAMS regarding financial packages for the full project, with development finance institutions having indicated the importance of Kola appointing a suitable contract operator. It seems like there are a bunch of moving parts and interdependencies at the moment.
  • Just to add insult to considerable injury, ArcelorMittal (JSE: ACL) released its audited financials for the year ended December 2025 along with a “change statement” – a rare thing on the JSE. It means that something changed between the initial financial release and the final audited accounts. There are a few changes, with one example being the impairment of a gas treatment plant by R112 million. This is a non-cash charge, but it’s still a perfect summary of the troubles that the group is currently dealing with.
  • Salungano (JSE: SLG) has released interim results for the six months to September 2025. As you can see, they are still catching up on their financial reporting. In this now very outdated period, normalised EBITDA jumped from R272 million to R511 million. HEPS was 38.48 cents vs. 21.56 cents in the comparable period. This was thanks to a sharp increase in the Moabsvelden mine’s production, as well as the restart of Vanggatfontein. Given the underlying momentum here, I’m sure the company is looking forward to being in a position to lift the trading suspension on its shares.
  • Zeder (JSE: ZED) shareholders have given near-unanimous approval to the transaction to dispose of Zaad. Only 0.01% of votes at the meeting were cast against the transaction.
  • enX (JSE: ENX) has now completed the disposal of the remaining 75% stake in West African International to Trichem SA. Just under R295 million has flowed, although there are still post-closing adjustments to work through. Once that has all happened, the board will consider a return of net surplus cash to shareholders.
  • Hammerson (JSE: HMN) announced that CFO Himanshu Raja will be retiring as a director on 12 August 2026 after the publication of results for the year ending June 2026. He’s served as CFO for five months and will stick around for a 12-month transition period. Richard Shaw, Deputy CFO, will become Interim CFO when Raja steps down.
  • In case you wondered whether we were firmly in a return-to-office environment in large corporates, Aspen (JSE: APN) announced the resignation of Group Chief Corporate Officer Reginald Haman due to his desire to relocate to the Western Cape. At that level, you would think that a relocation is something that could be managed without losing such a senior resource.
  • Heaven knows what the backstory is here, but Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) announced the removal of Farook Paruk as a director of the company based on “certain governance matters” and Paruk being the “subject of an external investigation” (with no conclusions reached at this stage). I can’t find any other information online on this matter.
  • Cilo Cybin Holdings (JSE: CCC) announced that Jessica Moodley-Theron has been appointed as acting CFO. She was already on the board as a non-executive director, with the switch in role necessitated by the resignation of the group CFO.
  • African Dawn Capital (JSE: ADW) is suspended from trading. They are way behind with financials, having been suspended since July 2025 for failure to release February 2025 accounts. They aim to catch up on the outstanding annual and interim financials by June 2026 – just in time to be behind on February 2026 numbers!
  • Trustco (JSE: TTO) is suspended from trading due to the time it has taken to finalise the appointment of auditors that meet the requirements for the dual-listed structure in Namibia and on the JSE. They are in the process of appointing suitable auditors from a JSE perspective, with the Namibian process ongoing at subsidiary and investee levels.
  • Globe Trade Centre (JSE: GTC) has almost no liquidity at all in its stock on the JSE. In case you are somehow sitting with shares here, you’ll want to know that the results for the year ended 31 December 2025 have been published. FFO (funds from operations) halved and the net LTV (loan-to-value) jumped from 52.7% to 57.0%. Ouch.

Hello hello, Art Nouveau

Dominique Olivier
-
1
Hello hello, Art Nouveau

At the height of the Belle Époque, the Art Nouveau movement pushed back against industrial sameness with unapologetic beauty. As AI ushers in a new age of effortless production, that same tension between efficiency and aesthetics is beginning to surface again.

The little convenience centre close to my house – the one that I go to most often to do my shopping – is currently in the process of retiling its floors.

While I can understand why this is a necessary thing (the contrast between the few remaining old tiles and the new ones makes it clear just how worn and weathered the old ones really are), I can’t say that I am thrilled with the design choices that have been made here. For one thing, the retiling project required the removal of a lovely little water feature which (sadly) does not appear to be making a return. For another, the new tiles that have been installed are not just uninspiring: they are mindnumbingly, achingly plain. Almost offensively so.

I know I sound like a cranky old lady when I say this, and I promise that I still understand the logic behind these decisions. It all comes down to costs, right? Removing the water feature probably saves the centre a little bit of maintenance money every month, plus it frees up space for more vendors. Choosing a plain (boring), durable tile over something interesting or patterned is more cost-effective. With the economy where it is, now is probably not the moment to roll out the marble and mosaics.

I get it. But it does make me wonder: is late-stage capitalism responsible for making the world uglier?

A world without scarcity

A while ago, I read a short story called The Midas Plague, which was written by a man named Frederick Pohl way back in 1954. In this story, the author imagines a semi-utopian future world where energy is cheap and everything humanity needs is made in extravagant quantities by robots. With no labour to keep them busy, the humans in Pohl’s story occupy themselves mainly with consumption.

The Midas Plague is a brilliant illustration of what is known as a post-scarcity society. This is a theoretical economic situation where most of the goods we need can be produced in great abundance with minimal human labour. Since human labour is an expensive ingredient, removing it from the equation results in these goods being made available either very cheaply or freely. The defining feature of a post-scarcity society is that all people can easily have their basic survival needs met, along with some significant proportion of their desires for goods and services.

For all the naysayers who believe that artificial intelligence will lead humanity down a path of destruction and ruin, there is a slightly more optimistic group of thinkers that reckons AI could help us to take our first steps towards realising a post-scarcity society. While I acknowledge that I’m simplifying things quite a bit here (necessarily so, otherwise I’d be writing a novel), the concept of an AI-powered post-scarcity society where labour is optional and the standard of living is high is a fun thought experiment to play around with. And because I still can’t stop thinking about those dull shopping centre tiles, I’m preoccupied with what that kind of future would look like.

The golden age

Luckily, I don’t have to wonder about the design choices of a hypothetical utopian future. Not when history has already illustrated it in full colour.

There was a brief period in European history when the world thought it was close to achieving this. It’s known as La Belle Époque, or “the beautiful era”. From around 1871 to 1914, much of Western Europe experienced a stretch of relative peace that coincided with a wave of technological progress that must have felt, at the time, quite dizzying. Steel, chemicals, petroleum and electricity were all invented in a relatively short window of time. These advances reshaped entire systems of production and daily life. Welcome to the Second Industrial Revolution.

Goods became cheaper and easier to produce, cities expanded and modernised, and more people found themselves able to afford things that had previously been out of reach. Wages rose and standards of living improved to the point that people got used to the idea of having leisure time. There was, if not a universal sense of optimism, then at least a growing belief that society was moving in the right direction.

Knowing what we know now – that World War 1 was on its way, in 1914 – it is difficult not to read into all this optimism with a certain amount of caution. Still, to people living through La Belle Époque, there must have been a sense of positive momentum, or the feeling that a series of problems was being steadily and sensibly solved.

The downside of industrialisation

Still, progress rarely arrives without trade-offs, and one of the important shifts during this period had less to do with what was being made and more to do with how it was being made.

Industrialisation meant that production of all sorts of things moved from individual craftsmen to factories, which meant that objects that had once been shaped by hand quickly became standardised. Designs were repeated, ornament was simplified or removed, and in many cases, new products were less acts of invention than efficient approximations of older styles. None of this was especially controversial, because it all made perfect economic sense. If something can be produced faster and at a lower cost, there are very few incentives not to do so.

(Is anyone else getting a feeling of AI-deja vu, or is it just me?)

It was in the wake of this sweeping industrialisation that a group of artists and designers across Europe began to push back against the status quo.

The beautiful everyday

The result of this pushback was a visual movement known as Art Nouveau, which had its prime between 1890 and 1910.

Art Nouveau was essentially a blurring of the line between art and functional design. One of the movement’s key concerns was to confront the established hierarchy of fine art over applied art. This was done by intentionally giving prestige back to craftsmanship, rejecting ‘standard’ designs, and by designing everyday objects as if they were works of art.

So what did this look like? Lines that used to be straight and easily replicable suddenly curved and twisted into organic shapes, surfaces filled with patterns drawn from nature, and objects that had previously been treated as purely functional were approached with a new level of care and intention. A bus stop could carry the same visual weight as a sculpture, a poster for cigarettes could be designed as thoughtfully as a painting, and a staircase in a building could feel as though it had grown into its surroundings rather than been assembled from a set of interchangeable parts. There is in much of Art Nouveau a kind of deliberate excess, an unwillingness to settle for the merely adequate, and a dedication to using rare materials as if they were commonplace. If there was ever a movement that captured humanity’s desire to be surrounded by beauty, it was this one.

Sadly, this kind of excess couldn’t last. By 1911, global sentiments were already shifting towards the negative, and by the advent of World War 1 in 1914, the Nouveau bubble had burst. Time, energy and money that had been poured into making beautiful things was quickly redirected into war efforts. The rest, as they say, is history.

Is the next “beautiful era” waiting in the wings?

It is difficult not to see echoes of this pattern in the present moment, particularly in relation to AI. If the Second Industrial Revolution transformed how we produced physical goods, AI appears to be reshaping how we complete tasks – the kinds of things that, until recently, required a combination of time, effort, and specialised skill. Increasingly, these can be generated quickly, at low cost, and at a scale that would have been difficult to imagine even a few years ago.

If previous cycles are anything to go by, the response to this newfound ease of production will not be a wholesale rejection of new technologies, but a gradual rebalancing. As certain forms of production become easier and more widespread, other attributes tend to gain importance: the visible investment of time, the sense of intentionality, the little irregularities that signal human involvement. These are not new values, but they tend to become more noticeable when they are no longer ubiquitous.

All of this suggests that it is at least possible that we are approaching the conditions for something resembling another “beautiful era,” even if it does not take the same form as the Belle Époque. History suggests that when people have the means to do so, they do not simply settle for adequacy; they experiment, embellish, and, at times, push things to excess. The result is not always consistent, but it can produce periods of remarkable creativity and visual richness.

Maybe in a decade, the little centre near my home will retile its floors again. Could it be possible that when that time comes, a different sensibility will inform the choice of tiles? Will we be at a point once more where the aesthetic qualities of our surroundings matter more to us than their cost?

This artist remains optimistic.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
-
0
Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Listed Companies

Ethos Private Equity (EPE Capital Partners) has announced the exit of its investment in Vertice MedTech to a consortium comprising of Amethis, Proparco and ccap.ai. Vertice, founded in 2018 by a management group and in partnership with Ethos, is an independent distributor of specialised medical products in Southern Africa. The company has c.780 employees and three distribution centres in Pretoria, Durban and Cape Town and regional centres in Gqeberha, George and Bloemfontein. Financial details were not disclosed.

Having identified its extrusion business as non-core and earmarked for disposal, Hulamin has entered into a series of inter-conditional agreements with Norsaf ERS in terms of which it will dispose of its interest in Hulamin Extrusions for a cash consideration of R10 million. Hulamin Extrusions will continue to occupy the company’s premises for a limited period. The transaction proceeds which also includes the disposal of the consignment stock will be used to reduce the debt and fund working capital requirements of the group. The deal constitutes a category 2 transaction.

Gaia Renewables 1, via its subsidiary in Gaia SA Investment SPV (RF) has concluded agreements to refinance empowerment stakes in De Aar 1 and 2 wind farms in the Northern Cape in a transaction valued at c.R115 million. The transaction replaces existing high-cost debt used to fund empowerment ownerships by DLO Energy Resources and Obsidian Infrastructure Group. The preference share subscription agreement will result in Gaia holding an effective indirect interest of 3.5% in Longyuan Mulilo De Aar Wind (RF) – a 100.5 MW wind farm and 3.5% in Longyuan Mulilo De Aar North (RF) – a 144 MW wind farm.

Putprop is to dispose of its 50% stake in the Corridor Hill rental enterprise in Mpumalanga to Bidvest Properties (Bidvest) for a cash consideration of R34,7 million. The disposal is a category 2 transaction and as such does not require shareholder approval. In another announcement this week, Putprop gave an update on the status of its disposal of a specific portion of the common property in the scheme known as Summit Place Erf 39, announced in November 2025. The parties have agreed to allow the purchaser more time (until 30 June 2026) for the completion of a due diligence.

Sappi’s proposed graphic paper joint Venture with UPM-Kymmene Corporation, announced in December 2025, has proceeded to Phase II of EU merger control process. At the time of the announcement, the combination of the European graphic paper businesses was valued at €1 billion (R19,94 billion).

Unlisted Companies

Shiprazor, a Cape Town-based e-commerce logistics start-up, has raised US$2,65 million in a seed round led by venture capital firm Norrsken22 with participation from AAIC, E4E and Tremis Capital. Shiprazor provides seamless solutions for businesses in Africa, connecting shippers with a vast network of carriers optimising the shipping process to deliver results based on cost, speed and service quality. Funds will be used to expand the courier network, improve geographic coverage and lower costs for merchants.

Stellenbosch headquartered Paymenow and Johannesburg-based PayCurve, are to merge to create an integrated employee financial wellness platform. The combined businesses will operate under the Paymenow brand and will assist workers move from short-term cash pressure and debt stress to long-term financial stability, resilience and savings in a single platform. Financial details were not disclosed.

Boniswa TowerCo, a 100% Black woman-owned business, has received undisclosed funding support from the Abadali Fund which is intended to accelerate the expansion of rural connectivity and network growth. The Abadali Fund, a black business growth fund, forms part of the Abadali Equity Equivalent Investment Programme which is a SA economic inclusion initiative by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition in partnership with J.P. Morgan and managed by Edge Growth Ventures. The Fund currently has over R300 million under management. The focus of Boniswa is on building and leasing telecommunication towers in peri-urban and rural areas with a vision to expand inclusive digital infrastructure across the country.

DealMakers is SA’s quarterly M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Marylou Greig
-
0
Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

With shares tightly held and thinly traded, resulting in shares trading at a substantial discount to embedded value per share, the Board of Clientèle has proposed the delisting of the company. This will be undertaken by way of a conditional offer effected through a pro rata repurchase of shares. The offer is subject to a maximum acceptance condition – if the offer is accepted in respect of more than 36,261,776 offer shares (being more than 8% of the offer shares excluding the AEI subscription shares) the offer and delisting will no longer be implemented. The offer consideration (assuming payment date of 29 June 2026) will be R19.90 per share representing a premium of 25.47% to the 30-day VWAP of R15.86 per share. In addition, Clientele will undertake a specific issue of shares for cash to Acacia Empowerment Investments (AEI) and to the executive directors and members of management of the company. In terms of the specific issues, AEI will subscribe for 13,597,860 shares for an aggregate R270,21 million and management for up to 4,800,000 shares for an aggregate R95,53 million. The proceeds from AEI specific issue will form part of the funding to be used to fund the offer consideration. Irrevocable undertakings not to accept the offer have been received by shareholders representing 93.08% of the offer shares (excluding AEI shares) and undertaking to vote in favour of the delisting have been received from shareholders representing 30.74% of the shares in issue (excluding shares held by excluded shareholders).

By way of an accelerated bookbuild, Fairvest raised R900 million, up from the proposed R500 million. The company will issue 130,434,783 new B shares at a price of 690 cents per share, reflecting a 5.5% premium to the 30-day VWAP per Fairvest B share of 654 cents per share. Although the capital raise was increased, the book remained oversubscribed at the higher level. The capital will be utilised to partially settle the purchase consideration for the Muller Group acquisition, the ongoing investment in Onepath Investments and the reduction of debt.

Oando has updated shareholders on the proposed ₦220,8 billion (c.R2,65 billion) Rights Issue – first announced in February 2026. The company is still in the process of obtaining various regulatory approvals including the approval of the NGX and JSE. The company proposes to issue 4,415,867,342 new shares at
₦50.00 per share on the basis of 1 new ordinary share for every 2 existing ordinary shares held.

Following Emira Property Fund’s offered to shareholders to acquire up to 39,204,583 Octodec Investments shares for a cash consideration of R16.75 per share, Freestone Property Investments, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Emira has acquired 2,889,864 ordinary shares for an aggregate consideration of R48,39 million. The offer closes on 8 May 2026.

AttBid, a vehicle representing Atterbury Property Fund (APF), I Faan and I Dirk, which made an offer to RMH shareholders in February 2026, acquired a further 2,939,574 shares at R0.47 per share in on-market transactions this week for an aggregate R1,38 million. Following this, AttBid and APF hold 32.77% and 10.86% respectively, resulting in an aggregate of c.43.63% of the RMH shares in issue. The offer closes on 29 May 2026.

Wesizwe Platinum, whose listing on the JSE remains suspended, has revised the publication date of its audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 from 30 April to 15 May 2026. Once released, the company will take steps to lift the suspension of trading in the company shares.

Suspended African Dawn Capital has advised its shareholders that it expects the company’s interim results for the six months ended 31 August 2025 to be published by 31 May 2026.

The proposed share capital reductions by Pan African Resources and Jubilee Metals have been approved by the relevant authorities. Shareholders will be further advised in the coming weeks once the capital reductions become effective.

Canal+, owner of MultiChoice, has confirmed it will take an inward secondary listing on the JSE on 3 June 2026. The listing is a fulfilment of a commitment the company made to authorities and a condition of its takeover of the DSTV owner announced in March 2024.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Over the period 1 – 20 April 2026, iOCO repurchased 5,174,369 shares at an average price per share of R4.28 for an aggregate R22,16 million. Since August 2025, the company has repurchased R15,77 million shares for a total cash value of R69,91 million representing c.2.6% of the issued share capital of the company. The shares are currently held as treasury shares.

Quilter announced it would commence a share buyback programme to repurchase shares with a value of up to £100 million in order to reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders. This week Quilter repurchased 1,066,000 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £1,97 million and 172,322 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R7,01 million.

Ninety One plc announced that it has extended the repurchase programme from 31 March 2026 to 3 June 2026. The shares will be purchased on the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 300,00 ordinary shares at an average price 215 pence for an aggregate £647,655.

GreenCoat Renewables has implemented a share buyback programme totalling €100 million over 12 months with a first tranche amounting to €25 million beginning on 5 March 2026 – representing 13% of the issued share capital. This week 2,189,434 shares were repurchased for and aggregate €1,644 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 20 – 24 April 2026, the group repurchased 4,617,484 shares for €289,05 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. This week the company repurchased a further 260,511 shares at an average price of £42.65 per share for an aggregate £11,11 million.

During the period 20 – 24 April 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 1,889,294 Prosus shares for an aggregate €80,52 million and Naspers, a further 538,092 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R500,02 million.

One company issued a profit warning this week: Santova.

Four companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Hulamin, ISA, Gaia Renewables 1 and Santova.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

Vanessa Aitken
-
0
Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

DealMakers AFRICA

Vantage Capital, has provided US$45 million of mezzanine debt funding to the International Group for Modern Coatings (MIDO), an Egyptian manufacturer of specialty paints and coatings. The proceeds will be used for debt refinancing and working capital funding, which will enable MIDO to unlock its production capacity.

BNP Paribas and Holmarcom Finance Company have concluded an agreement for the sale by BNP Paribas to HFC of its entire 67% controlling interest in Morocco’s Banque Marocaine pour le Commerce et l’Industrie (BMCI). Financial terms were not disclosed.

Ethiopia‑based electric mobility company Dodai, has announced the successful closing of its US$13 million Series A financing round, comprising $8 million in equity and $5 million in debt. The round includes participation from Value Chain Innovation Fund, UTokyo Innovation Platform Co, Nagase & Co., Persistent ACV Fund, For Seasons, CBC Co, and Inclusion Japan, alongside British International Investment (BII) who provided the $5 million debt funding.

Zambeef Products, a fully integrated cold chain food products and retail business with operations in Zambia, Nigeria and Ghana, has announced the conversion of the British International Investment’s (BII) preference shares to ordinary shares. In accordance with the terms of the investment agreement dated 3 August 2016, BII exercised its right to convert all of its 100,057,658 convertible redeemable preference shares into Zambeef ordinary shares. The Company has now issued 308,511,112 new ordinary shares of ZMW 0.01 each to BII, effective on 29 April 2026.

Food delivery app, Swoop, has raised a US$7,3 million seed round to launch in Nigeria. The round was led by Long Journey, Variant, Version One Ventures, Dune Ventures, and Soma Capital, with participation from Zero Knowledge Ventures, Walter Kortschak, Basecapital.io, and others.

Copper Intelligence has confirmed the acquisition of the Kitungu Exploration Licence PR-15880 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The licence is located approximately 73 kilometres (straight–line distance) from Lubumbashi and covers an area of 764.55 hectares. The Kitungu project is located within the highly prospective DRC copper belt and is surrounded by other operating mines and projects, including the Kinsvere project, which holds an estimated 30 million tonnes at 3.65% copper operated by MinMetal Resources. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Mediterrania Capital Partners announced the acquisition of 100% of Société Marocaine des Manufactures de Mohammedia (SMMM), the holding company of Amcor Flexibles Mohammedia (AFM), from Amcor Group. AFM is a Moroccan manufacturer of flexible packaging solutions, primarily serving the dairy industry, as well as the pharmaceutical, food and home and personal care sectors. Financial terms were not disclosed.

RISMA, a company listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange, announced the signing of a final sales agreement (an initial agreement was signed in February) with Albatros. part of the Pickalbatros Group, regarding the sale of the Sofitel Casablanca Tour Blanche hotel, located in the historic centre of Casablanca. The property was sold for MAD450 million.

International Finance Corporation is providing a €9 million long‑term loan (a multi-purpose financing structure covering both working capital and capex across several subsidiaries) to scale Groupe Talys’ flagship businesses: Sanifer, Madagascar’s largest importer and distributor of construction materials and home‑improvement products, and Kibo, its cash‑and‑carry grocery retail concept.

Enko Capital, through its Impact Credit Strategy fund, has invested in Angola’s Metalosul, a subsidiary of the Omatapalo Group, that has been awarded the development of a 724MW solar infrastructure project. The funding will be used to finance the acquisition of photovoltaic panels for the Luanda site.

Swissport has signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a majority stake in CV Handling, the main ground handling provider across seven airports in Cabo Verde. Swissport said the transaction follows a privatisation process led by the government of Cabo Verde, in which it was selected as the preferred bidder for a controlling stake in CV Handling.

The International Finance Corporation and Standard Chartered Plc have launched a US$300 million risk-sharing facility to expand supply chain finance across eight African markets. IFC will provide guarantees of up to $150 million from its own account, with a first tranche of $100 million committed to back transactions in U.S. dollars and selected local currencies. The programme will operate in Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia, covering payables finance, receivables discounting and pre-shipment instruments.

DealMakers AFRICA is the continent’s quarterly M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

Ghost Bites (Astral Foods | MTN Ghana | Primary Health Properties)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Astral Foods | MTN Ghana | Primary Health Properties)

Astral Foods has tightened its earnings guidance (JSE: ARL)

As percentages go, this is a big one!

In mid-March, Astral Foods released a trading statement dealing with the six months to March 2026. They flagged an incredible jump in HEPS of at least 435%, serving as an excellent reminder of just how crazy things can get in the poultry industry when everything goes right simultaneously.

Thanks to strong demand for poultry, increased selling prices, better margins due to lower input costs and even a lack of any significant business disruptions, this has been Astral’s time to shine.

In a further trading statement, we now have a better idea of just how brightly the company has shone. The updated range for HEPS is an increase of between 450% and 470%. This suggests interim HEPS of between R22.50 and R23.31.

The share price is around R244. Remember that the guided range is for an interim HEPS number, so you would need to annualise it to work out the P/E multiple. The challenge in poultry is that annualising is very difficult, as the industry is anything but a steady performer.

The share price is up 42% in the past year. Tasty.

Is this a sector that you are invested in?

MTN Ghana banks another strong quarter (JSE: MTN)

Growth rates are high and margins are expanding

MTN Ghana released results for the three months ended March 2026. The numbers are excellent, with mobile subscribers up 9.4% and service revenue jumping by 35.7%.

Within that revenue story, data revenue was up 52.3% and voice revenue fell by 3.7%. Even in frontier markets, voice calling is the legacy business.

With costs up 25.7%, the excess growth in revenue was enough to send EBITDA up by 42.9%. This drove a 310 basis points expansion in EBITDA margin to 61.2%.

Although depreciation was up 32.7% (a function of capex in prior periods), there was a 22.1% decrease in net finance costs. Once these are taken into account, profit after tax increased by 46.8%.

Unusually, capex excluding leases fell by a remarkable 75.9%. That’s great news for free cash flow, although such low levels of capex shouldn’t be extrapolated.

There’s been some corporate activity in the form of the separation of the fintech business. Although it trades as a stapled share on the Ghana Stock Exchange, this seems to be the precursor to an equity transaction. Why else would they go through this process? It will be interesting to see if an equity partner gets involved in the fintech operations.

For now at least, things are going well for MTN in Ghana. This is an important read-through for the broader story in West Africa.

Primary Health Properties is delivering on merger synergies (JSE: PHP)

Some corporate structuring is in the pipeline to deleverage the group

Primary Health Properties took advantage of its AGM to give shareholders and the market an update on the first quarter of the year. They sound pretty happy with how things have gone.

Organic rental growth was 3.4% on an annualised basis. That may not sound like much, but you need to keep in mind that this is a defensive portfolio earning hard currency. They are seeing positive contributions from Primary Care UK, Private Hospitals and Ireland.

This is of course the enlarged portfolio after the Assura merger. The company has bravely given the market the exciting news that they expect to run ahead of schedule on the main goals of post-deal debt reduction and the delivery of £9 million in synergies. They’ve already found £7.8 million in synergies, or 87% of the target!

Part of the deleveraging plan is to put the private hospital portfolio into a separate investment vehicle capable of attracting an equity partner. I’m not hugely surprised to see some potential restructuring work after such a large merger.

They are also working on the transfer of a further £103 million of assets into the existing primary care joint venture.

Results of yesterday’s poll:

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • There are more games of musical shares in the Wiese family, this time with a total return swap and associated options over Shoprite (JSE: SHP) shares worth a whopping R427.5 million. These transactions are between entities held by Dr. Christo Wiese and Adv. Jacob Wiese.
    • A director of Sabvest (JSE: SBP) sold shares worth around R392k to settle debt.
  • Reinet (JSE: RNI) has announced the net asset value (NAV) of Reinet Fund as a precursor to the release of the group NAV. The movement in the fund’s NAV is usually a solid directional indicator for the group NAV. The three months between December 2025 and March 2026 didn’t see much movement, with the fund NAV up just 0.02%.
  • Alphamin (JSE: APH) already gave the market plenty of information about the record EBITDA achieved in the first quarter of 2026. For those interested, they’ve now released their detailed financials and confirmed the dividend of around R1.57 per share. As a reminder, the results were driven primarily by a strong upward move in average tin prices.
  • ISA Holdings (JSE: ISA) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to the receipt of a non-binding expression of interest from a potential acquirer of a controlling shareholding in ISA. At this stage, the parties are still negotiating. There’s no guarantee of a firm intention to make an offer coming through.
  • Sappi’s (JSE: SAP) efforts to create a graphic paper joint venture in Europe with UPM-Kymmene Corporation are ongoing. EU merger control is now moving to a Phase II process, which the company says is a normal regulatory process when certain matters require a detailed assessment following the Phase I review. I fear that European regulators aren’t in any hurry at all with the implementation of this transaction. Given the pressure on Sappi’s share price, I hope they get it across the line without any regulatory hiccups.
  • RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) has convened an extraordinary general meeting to consider the resolutions related to the election of a new board of directors. This is because the existing board is stepping down as part of the AttBid offer process. There are four names on the table as potential new directors. Andrew Brooking, co-founder of Java Capital, is one of them. Corporate law expert Professor Piet Delport, ex-Momentum group CEO Nicolaas Kruger and construction expert Dr Pine Pineaar bring the total to four potential new directors. It’s worth noting that this list of names is a shortlist put together by the Nomination and Remuneration Committee.
  • Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) released a quarterly activities report. They are working towards the completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) in the fourth quarter this year, a delay vs. previous expectations. To get there, they are busy with a number of drilling and geotechnical programmes. Psychologically, it’s probably important that they get the DFS done in this calendar year, especially as they need strong platinum prices to support the underlying economics.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) has appointed Ox Drilling Limited as the drilling contractor for the Phase 1 drilling programme at the Kabwe Zinc Mine in Zambia. The programme will begin in mid-May 2026. The company notes that this is the first drilling at the site since the 1970s!
  • It feels like just yesterday that Capitec’s (JSE: CPI) previous CEO Gerrie Fourie vacated the top job. The company has announced that he will rejoin the board as a non-executive director with effect from 1 August 2026. This is because of the required one-year cooling-off period. I don’t think shareholders will ever complain about this level of institutional knowledge coming back to the board.
  • Zeda (JSE: ZZD) has appointed Deon Van Heerden as an independent non-executive director. This is interesting, because he is the Managing Partner of Artefact South Africa, a data and AI consulting firm. The board is clearly looking to beef up their understanding of that space – not a bad thing at all!
  • Here’s another interesting board appointment: Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP) announced the appointment of two new non-executive directors, one of whom is July Ndlovu – the ex-CEO of Thungela (JSE: TGA). The other appointment is Lucky Kgatle, who brings plenty of experience from prior executive roles at the likes of Sasol (JSE: SOL).
  • Oando (JSE: OAO) is planning a rights issue on the basis of one share for every two existing shares. In other words, it’s a biggie! They are still in the process of getting the various regulatory approvals in place across the JSE and the Nigerian Exchange.
  • In case you’re following the Putprop (JSE: PPR) deals, the company has announced an amendment to the disposal of Summit Place for R26.5 million. The parties have agreed to insert a clause that gives until 30 June 2026 for the completion of a due diligence by the purchaser.

UNLOCK THE STOCK: Attacq Limited

The Finance Ghost
-
0
UNLOCK THE STOCK: Attacq Limited

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst.

Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session. I facilitate the Q&A alongside Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us.

In the 69th edition of Unlock the Stock, Attacq Limited returned to the platform to talk about the recent numbers and the strategic outlook for the business.

Watch the recording here:

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | CMH | Kumba Iron Ore | Merafe)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Anglo American | CMH | Kumba Iron Ore | Merafe)

Anglo American is the usual mixed bag – and diamonds are now a low margin game (JSE: AGL)

They are working hard towards the implementation of the Teck merger

Anglo American released a production update for the three months to March 2026. We may as well begin with copper, since that’s all the rage at the moment.

The copper-focused merger with Teck Resources is expected to close between September 2026 and March 2027. The final outstanding regulatory milestone is regulatory approval in China, along with other standard closing conditions.

In the meantime, Anglo’s copper production increased by 1% year-on-year, with lower grades at Quellaveco putting the handbrake on a story that was positively impacted by Los Bronces and Collahuasi.

In premium iron ore, production dipped 2%. You can read about Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO), part of the Anglo group, further down in Ghost Bites today. Minas-Rio also experienced a dip in production.

Manganese ore, Anglo’s third and final focus area in terms of producing assets, enjoyed a 118% rebound in production after the tropical cyclone in Australia last year.

We now reach diamonds, the ongoing story of value-destruction disruption. Production increased by 17%, so they’ve clearly given up on hoping that scarcity will drive prices. Something isn’t scarce anymore if it can be grown in a lab.

They expect to produce at a cost of $80/carat, with rough diamond prices down 19% in the quarter, to $101/carat. That’s a weak margin. The glory days for De Beers are well and truly over, as I’ve been flagging for the past few years.

Of course, this doesn’t stop Anglo from entirely avoiding the enormous, trumpeting elephant in the room when they write: “Rough diamond trading conditions continued to be challenged due to ongoing industry, geopolitical and tariff headwinds.“

No. Rough diamond trading conditions suck because lab grown diamonds destroyed the industry. Anglo can do whatever they like to convince us (and a potential buyer of De Beers) otherwise, but the facts are the facts.

Steelmaking coal production fell by 31%, with the Moranbah North incident in March 2025 impacting production ever since. There were also significant weather impacts.

Nickel production dipped by 7% due to maintenance at two of the mines.

So, as you can see, it’s a mixed bag. Despite this, production and unit cost guidance is unchanged for 2026.

CMH banks an impressive jump in earnings (JSE: CMH)

They’ve responded to disruption extremely well

The Chinese (and to a lesser extent, Indian) car invasion has thrown the local and global automotive sector into disarray. Disruption quickly separates the strong from the weak, with CMH proving that they fall into the former category.

For the year ended February 2026, revenue increased 18.6% and operating profit was up 17.1%. HEPS jumped by a delicious 33%!

Interestingly, the cash dividend was much lower in this period despite the jump in earnings. If you read through the detail, you’ll find that this is because of a share repurchase offer that the company undertook towards the end of 2025. The board was disappointed with the outcome of the share repurchase, with only 50% of holders electing to sell their shares.

I think the board should take this as a compliment. Also, the time for buybacks is when the share price is in the doldrums, not when it’s on a strong upswing. We will have to wait and see what the company does with the significant cash pile on the balance sheet.

As a quick look at the segmentals, CMH generated 94% of revenue in the motor retail and distribution business, 5% in car hire and 1% in financial services. But the margins are structurally different across these businesses, so the split for profit before tax looks very different: 49% motor retail, 29% car hire and 13% financial services. For those doing mental maths, 9% of profit before tax sits in the “corporate services and other” bucket.

The star of the show was the motor retail and distribution business, where profit before tax jumped from R164 million to R258 million. It really is an impressive performance for a group that has many non-Chinese and Indian brands in the stable.

What are your views on the motor retail sector?

With one quarter out of the way, Kumba Iron Ore has reiterated full year guidance (JSE: KIO)

Finished stock levels at the port helped support sales growth

Kumba Iron Ore has released a production and sales report for the three months to March 2026.

As always, the company has to manage its business based on what Transnet is actually capable of delivering, with a planned 10-day logistics maintenance shutdown at Transnet scheduled for May.

This is why production was 2% lower year-on-year, as there’s not much value in accelerating production that cannot subsequently be railed to port. There were some challenges with rail transport this quarter as well, with adverse weather washing away a portion of the rail itself. Ore railed to port by Transnet dipped 1% for the quarter.

Thankfully, with high port stock volumes and improved port performance in general, sales actually increased by 3%. Total finished stock decreased from 7.5Mt to 7.2Mt, with 4.7Mt at the mines and 2.5Mt at Saldanha Bay Port.

Iron ore prices were under pressure at the beginning of the quarter, but subsequently showed positive momentum into March.

Kumba’s performance always comes with the caveat of reliance on Transnet. Subject to Transnet performing in line with expectations, Kumba has left guidance for 2026 unchanged.

Merafe’s ferrochrome production was negligible in the latest quarter (JSE: MRF)

Chrome ore and PGMs kept things ticking over

Merafe has released a production report for the three months to March 2026. As we know, the ferrochrome smelter industry has been in absolute crisis. This comes through in the form of a 95% drop in year-on-year production.

Remember, Afrimat (JSE: AFT) is just one of the casualties elsewhere in the value chain from this issue.

Merafe’s attributable chrome ore production increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while attributable PGMs concentrate production decreased by 12% due to lower feed tonnages.

The share price is actually 5.5% up over 12 months, with the market believing that a resolution to the smelter crisis is just around the corner. Although Afrimat has broader issues, it’s still amazing to me that Merafe’s share price has been so resilient vs. Afrimat’s nasty drop:

Results of yesterday’s poll:

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An entity related to a non-executive director of Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE) sold shares worth R32.2 million.
    • A person associated with a director of Mondi (JSE: MNP) bought shares worth around R840k. That’s quite the dip to buy!
    • A director of Sabvest Capital (JSE: SBP) sold shares worth R351k to settle debt obligations.
  • FirstRand (JSE: FSR) has thrown in the towel on the UK motor commission matter. They have decided not to legally challenge the proposed redress scheme. It sounds like they couldn’t put together a meaningful group of other lenders to act together.
  • African Rainbow Minerals (JSE: ARM) has concluded a conditional nickel off-take agreement with Boliden Commercial AB. This is a multi-year deal for the sale of nickel concentrate by the Nkomati Nickel Mine. But no detailed terms are disclosed unfortunately, so there’s not much I can tell you other than the nickel is headed to Finland – home to the only large-scale nickel smelter in Europe.
  • RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) announced that AttBid has bought more shares in the company and how holds 10.86%. The combined holding with Atterbury Property Fund is 43.63%.
  • Putprop (JSE: PPR) basically has no liquidity at all in its stock, so the transaction to sell 50% in Corridor Hill for R34.7 million only gets a passing mention down here. The acquirer is Bidvest (JSE: BVT), owner of the current tenant (McCarthy Limited). The last independent valuation in Putprop’s books had the property at R37.6 million.
  • Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN) has received court approval for the proposed share capital reduction. This ended up being far more of a mission than anyone thought, as you may recall that the courts weren’t happy with the initial shareholder notice and made Pan African do it again.
  • The chair and lead independent director of Grindrod (JSE: GND) are retiring from the board at the end of the AGM in June. This marks the conclusion of Grindrod’s strategy to dispose of non-core assets. Four new independent non-executive directors have been announced. Grindrod has certainly been quite the turnaround story!
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) is still trying to finish its financials for the year ended December 2025. They have pushed them out to 15 May 2026. Once these are released, the company should be able to follow the process to have the suspension of the shares lifted.

Ghost Bites (Fairvest | Hulamin | Impala Platinum | Mondi)

The Finance Ghost
-
0
Ghost Bites (Fairvest | Hulamin | Impala Platinum | Mondi)

Fairvest’s capital raise: have we reached silly season in the property sector? (JSE: FTB | JSE: FTA)

Welcome to oversubscribed raises at a premium to VWAP

Approximately 10 years ago, when I was working in the corporate finance industry, it was incredible to see how much activity there was in the property space. I used to think about the people at Java and how much money they must be making from capital raises alone.

Like all hype cycles, the tide eventually went out and property funds saw a nasty decline in prices. Too much capital had been thrown at weak deals. To make it worse, funds were trading at a premium to book. This meant that the market was pricing in the benefit of future deals, not just the strength of the existing portfolio.

We aren’t there quite yet, but I’m keeping a close eye on things in this sector. The latest capital raise by Fairvest is of concern, as the company announced in the morning that they were looking for R500 million in new B shares. The announcement didn’t even explain what the capital is for, so that’s the first red flag for the sector. When it becomes easy to raise capital, the risks go up.

Here’s the second red flag: the market threw money at Fairvest and the company gladly accepted it, with the raise increased to R900 million. The third red flag is that the pricing is a 5.5% premium to the 30-day VWAP.

At least the final announcement indicated what the capital will be used for: partial settlement for the Muller Group acquisition, ongoing investment in Onepath Investments and debt reduction ahead of pending asset transfers.

The Fairvest B shares are up 39% in the past 12 months. The board is doing the smart thing by raising capital at this level. Investors should be doing the smart thing by becoming even more vigilant in this sector going forwards.

I don’t think we are quite in silly season yet, but we are creeping closer. But what do you think?

Hulamin is selling Hulamin Extrusions (JSE: HLM)

This will help the company focus on the core Rolled Products business

Hulamin has announced the disposal of Hulamin Extrusions to Norsaf ERS, an unrelated party. This deal has been in the works for a while, with Hulamin having previously identified this as a non-core asset. The announcement of this transaction means that Hulamin is no longer trading under cautionary.

It’s not exactly the biggest deal around. The shares are being sold for R10 million and there will be further payments for inventory based on the balance as at 30 October 2026. The inventory balance isn’t expected to exceed R100 million.

Hulamin Extrusions suffered a loss after tax for the year ended December 2025 of R36 million. The acquirer clearly has plans to improve that situation. As for Hulamin, they unlock some capital and bid farewell to an expensive distraction.

This is a Category 2 transaction, so shareholders won’t be asked to vote on the deal.

Impala Platinum still on track for the full year (JSE: IMP)

They sound happy with the third quarter production numbers

Impala Platinum has released a production report covering the three and nine months ended March 2026. The overall narrative is one of a solid third quarter, where group excess inventory has been reduced ahead of expectations.

The quarterly production results at mining groups will always reflect the underlying volatility of the mining sector. For example, 6E production at managed operations was down 2.6% in the three months to March, impacted by smelter maintenance at Zimplats. But Refined 6E production, which includes other mining operations, was up by a juicy 18.8%.

Here’s the number that really counts in terms of generating cash for investors: 6E sales volumes increased by 9.2%.

If we look at the year-to-date numbers, which are smoother based on the longer time frame, we find that 6E production at managed operations was only down by 0.2%. Refined 6E increased by 5.1% (surely a fairer reflection of underlying performance than the 18.8% jump in the third quarter) and sales volumes were up 3.0%.

Importantly, guidance for the full year has been maintained across major operating and capital expenditure metrics.

Mondi’s quarterly EBITDA continues to slide (JSE: MNP)

The trajectory over the past year is concerning

Before I dive into the latest numbers at Mondi, it’s worth showing you what the share prices of Mondi and Sappi (JSE: SAP) have done over the past year:

Now that you’ve braced yourself, let’s look at Mondi’s financial performance in the quarter ended March 2026, which represents the first quarter of the 2026 financial year.

EBITDA of €212 million in Q1’26 is a long way down from €290 million in Q1’25. Technically, if we strip out the forestry fair value gains, then the latest quarter is the slightest possible improvement vs. Q3’26.

But if we keep the fair value movements in, which we probably should, then the latest quarter is the lowest that it’s been over the rolling 12 months.

The problem isn’t related to Mondi’s controllables. Their Corrugated Packaging and Flexible Packaging businesses increased sales volumes in Q1’26 vs. Q4’25, with no planned maintenance shuts. But with lower selling prices and higher energy costs towards the end of the quarter, margin pressure was the only possible outcome.

The sector was already in serious trouble before the conflict in the Middle East. Mondi has noted the risk of energy, raw material and logistics costs. They will put through pricing increases where they can, but those price increases are only expected to take effect in the third quarter of the year.

Mondi fell 9.5% on the day of the announcement.

Results of yesterday’s poll:

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A couple of Mpact (JSE: MPT) directors sold only enough shares to cover the tax on share awards, but two other directors sold the entire amount worth R1.9 million in aggregate.
    • An associate of a director of South Ocean Holdings (JSE: SOH) bought shares worth R100k.
  • Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI) is busy with a voluntary offer to acquire enough shares in Octodec (JSE: OCT) to take them to a 34.9% stake – just below the threshold for a mandatory offer. The offer price is R16.75 per share. This isn’t stopping Emira from acquiring shares in on-market transactions at the same price. They’ve bought almost 2.9 million shares in the market, so the offer is now for 36.3 million shares instead of the initial 39.2 million shares. In practice, this means that Octodec investors who accept the offer may not end up selling as many shares as they hoped.
  • enX Group (JSE: ENX) announced that the TRP Compliance Certificate for Trichem SA’s acquisition of the remaining 75% in West African International from enX has now been received. The deal is therefore unconditional.
  • Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) is still trying to catch up on its financial reporting obligations. They’ve released a trading statement for the six months to September 2025, reflecting an increase in HEPS of between 68.48% and 88.48%. Most importantly, they expect to release those interim results this week.
  • Lwazi Bam has been appointed by MTN (JSE: MTN) as Chief Risk Officer. This means he is resigning from other non-executive board roles, including at Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) and Valterra Platinum (JSE: VAL).
  • Insimbi Industrial Holdings (JSE: ISB) announced an interesting director appointment. Ernest Kwinda, founder of Itai Capital and an ex-RMB corporate financier with plenty of experience, has now joined the board. Is the company looking at doing major transactions in future?
123...256Page 1 of 256

Focuses on making market news and investment concepts accessible, understandable and fun!

Ghost Mail is free to read

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Partner with Ghost Mail

CONTACT US

© Ghost Mail

Verified by MonsterInsights