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Ghost Stories #108: Due diligence decoded – inside the modern deal risk process

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Due diligence is often described as “doing your own research” before an acquisition, but the reality is far more complex. In this episode of Ghost Stories, The Finance Ghost is joined by Althea Soobyah, Bongiwe Mbunge and Johan Marais from Forvis Mazars to unpack what a modern due diligence process really looks like.

From financial and tax diligence through to ESG and HR considerations, the discussion explores how buyers identify hidden risks, validate value and avoid expensive mistakes. The conversation also dives into deal structuring, cross-border complexities, tax exposures, cultural risks and the growing importance of non-financial factors in corporate transactions.

Whether you’re a CFO, investor, business owner or dealmaker, this episode offers valuable insights into what happens after the letter of intent is signed and the real work begins.

After all, the due diligence can make or break a transaction!

In this episode:

  • Financial DD fundamentals: How buyers assess earnings quality, working capital and the key value drivers of a business.
  • Tax traps and opportunities: Why tax diligence goes beyond compliance and can materially impact deal structure and valuation.
  • The rise of ESG due diligence: Understanding culture, governance, workforce risks and sustainability factors that influence long-term value.
  • Cross-border transaction challenges: Navigating tax, regulatory and operational risks across multiple jurisdictions.
  • One deal, many workstreams: How coordinating financial, tax and ESG due diligence can improve efficiency and support better decision-making.

Connect with the Forvis Mazars team:

This podcast is brought to you by Forvis Mazars in South Africa.

Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. We’ve got a particularly interesting episode here, where we have three guests on it, all from Forvis Mazars, and for very, very good reason. Because we are going to be learning about the different elements of a due diligence (DD) process. 

And at Forvis Mazars they have these skills in-house. They can do almost all the bits of a DD (we’ll obviously dig into the stuff that they don’t do as well). 

To help us understand how that all looks these days, we have Johan Marais, Althea Soobyah and Bongiwe Mbunge ready to share their insights into due diligence best practice. Something I’m certainly looking forward to. 

Welcome to the show, all three of you.

Johan Marais: Thanks, Ghost. Thank you for having us.

Althea Soobyah: Thanks, Ghost. It’s good to be here.

Bongiwe Mbunge: Pleasure for me to be here, thanks, Ghost.

The Finance Ghost: So, I do have a fair bit of experience in the corporate finance industry, although it’s been more than a decade now since I looked at a due diligence report myself. 

But Johan, I’m sure not much has changed in the past decade in terms of what a DD is. And I guess for an investment audience, they might be used to seeing comments like, “Do your own research” whenever someone is writing about stocks or the market. 

And really, a DD is just “doing your own research” in terms of a corporate transaction, right? It’s making sure that the thing is what you believe it is.

Johan Marais: If I were to just take one step back as to when the due diligence is required, the actual timing. That generally happens after your non-binding offer or your letter of intent has been agreed. 

The terms contained in your non-binding offer would be your price, how much percentage is being acquired and other key commercial terms. 

When that document was agreed, only limited information was shared between the parties. And this is where a due diligence comes into effect, because much more detailed information will be shared. 

At Forvis Mazars, we do financial, tax, ESG, HR and IT due diligences. That’s why we have Althea on the call, Bongiwe on the call. Althea takes care of the tax due diligence, Bongiwe of the ESG due diligence side of things.

The Finance Ghost: And so the sides that you don’t do would be commercial, legal – as part of a deal. Your clients would need to obviously then just manage that with experts in that space, right?

Johan Marais: Absolutely. We don’t do the legal due diligence, and we don’t do the commercial due diligence. For legal due diligence, we work with various attorney firms, so we’re well placed to recommend a good attorney, who can assist with the due diligence. 

If I were to get into a little bit detail as to what does a financial due diligence entail: in essence, no purchaser wants to willingly overpay for an asset. So, part of the financial due diligence is, we look at the quality of the earnings, the operating profit, because that drives value.

There are a few other bits that’s important as well, one of them being the working capital; your inventory, debtors, creditors; and how quickly that converts into cash flow. To sum it all up, a financial due diligence really wants to identify the key value drivers of the business as well as the risks.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, so from a dealmaking perspective, essentially what happens in practice is: a company comes in, or an investor, they like the look of a thing, they’ve been given a pitch deck which says, “Hey, this is what this business does. This is why it all makes sense”. 

Obviously, they’ve formed a view on it, which is essentially the commercial due diligence piece. Although sometimes an investor will actually get a full-blown commercial due diligence done, just to make sure of the understanding of how this thing fits into a market, etc. 

But the financial due diligence is really where you just check that what you’ve actually been told is true, right? And obviously audited financials, etc. help, but when you’re in a smaller business space and the mid-market, I guess even then, you really want someone to just go and check all the detail on behalf of the buyer, and not just rely on the balance sheet that was signed last year.

Johan Marais: So, spot on, Ghost. It’s not just relying on the balance sheet last year, but it’s also understanding what drives the business. Where is the key risk, how much concentration risk do you have in customers? Are there exports? 

And then very importantly as well, there’s this one-line item in the financial statement that talks about tax. So, what does it entail? Where are the risks? Is the company compliant? And that’s where we have the expertise of Althea, who can dig into quite a bit of detail from a tax due diligence perspective.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. So, Althea, let’s maybe bring you in here then. And tax is very much your area of specialty in a due diligence, and your expertise. 

And there’s a bunch of practical considerations here, right? So again, people who might not be close to the detail of corporate transactions might not realise that sometimes they are structured as the acquisition of a business (which means the assets, some of the liabilities, come along for the ride). 

And sometimes it’s the acquisition of shares, which means you get all the skeletons in the closet as well, if there are any. They come along because you’re buying the entity you’re buying. The entire history might just come with baggage. It’s a bit like a relationship. 

So, from a tax perspective, how do you help people understand that baggage? And how does it inform your approach whether they are doing acquisition of a business or an acquisition of shares?

Althea Soobyah: It’s like you said, it’s all about protecting value in a transaction. Ultimately, at the end of the day, when you’re looking at tax exposure, it could impact the value of your assets that you’re going to acquire. 

And it does impact the decisions you make on whether or not you’re going to acquire at the shareholder level, or you’re going to acquire assets. 

What we do see from a lot of the transactions is ultimately about protecting value in the transaction. A lot of the time what we notice is that tax has always been a grudge purchase, from a compliance perspective, for any taxpayer. What we really do in a tax due diligence is to give comfort that to the extent that there is tax exposure, how does it impact the value or the acquisition, be it at share level or at an asset level.

And in practice, there could be unpaid taxes, VAT risk, payroll issues, transfer pricing exposures which would creep up along the line and sometimes, unbeknown to the potential buyer, if they’re not looking at it intricately and in detail, it might come up and “bite them” (laughs) after post-acquisition if they’re not careful. 

The second part of it is also equally important is validating the tax assets. Looking at assessed losses. It’s not only mitigating risk; it’s about upside.

What is the upside in those assets? How do I take on those assets? If I’m going to acquire at the asset level, what is it that I’m acquiring it at? 

What’s the upside for me? What are the incentives attached to those particular assets?

A lot of the time people see it as, like I said, a grudge purchase. But it could also be: what is the potential in those assets that I hold, that add value to my business? So that’s at asset level. 

And then the same thing at the shareholder level: how does that impact my decision-making when I’m acquiring? 

And similarly with a vendor due diligence: how does it impact my business if I want to sell? 

How do I think about tax due diligence? How do I think about acquisition from an overall financial perspective? How does it all fit together when I’m actually in a position where I want investors to invest and to sell off my assets?

The Finance Ghost: I think another thing that a lot of people maybe don’t realise is the extent to which a DD can actually lead to a renegotiation of terms. 

So, for example, if you’ve got an acquisition of shares, and then your tax due diligence picks up that there are actually huge potential risks here, of old issues and SARS assessments and everything else, that can trigger a restructuring of a transaction, right?

To say, actually, “No, thank you, we don’t want the shares, we’ll just buy the assets that we want”.

Althea Soobyah: Absolutely. Or, it will structure the entire legality around your sale and purchase agreements, where you’ve got an indemnity and a warranty, or even a lockbox – where you want to safeguard yourself against future tax exposure, where there’s uncertainty that crops up. 

Now, we do different types of tax due diligence.

We can do it at a high level from a compliance perspective. Then you get a limited “red flag” where we just flag potential markers that might influence your price. And then the full scope, where we actually check the tax calculations.

So, it really depends on how prudent the vendor or the seller is and how clean he keeps his books. And it depends on how prudent the approach is that the buyer wants to take and how much risk they’re willing to take on.

The Finance Ghost: I used that analogy earlier of how it’s like figuring out the baggage that someone comes with, right? But that really is what a due diligence is. It’s like an accelerated dating process. You’ve agreed to get married and it’s like, “Well, we’ve only been on one date, we better go on another 50 and we better do it this week and figure out everything”.

Bongiwe, in your world, which is the HR, the ESG side of things, people sometimes forget this stuff. This feels a bit like meeting the parents. You know, that’s important too. You marry the family; you don’t just marry the person. 

And I think that people have learned the hard way sometimes, in real life and otherwise, to actually go and check these things out properly and maybe take their time and understand them. 

So just give us an idea from your perspective of, from an HR and an ESG side, what are some of the things that you end up picking up? That people, need to be aware of? Where they need to be afraid, they need to be careful, they need to actually get this work done.

Bongiwe Mbunge: Absolutely. And thank you for that, because I firmly believe (and I’ve seen it in practice) that sound leadership generally can navigate the known. It’s about the unknown that is unearthed in this process, that can later become a surprise element that really opens the transaction to risk. 

What I really want to weave in as a theme is that it’s resilience planning. There’s a strategic part of it, and there’s a compliance part of it. And both of these are equally important to be known, pre the transaction. 

So, categorically, we would conclude on things before the transaction (that are flagged) and after the transaction and give guidance as to what should take priority. And also have an overview of what kind of things will take how long to resolve. 

This has an impact on money, to your previous point about renegotiating terms – 100%. 

But what are some of the things that we really get to see, when we table reports that unearth the non-financial risk, both across both human resources and sustainability?

This is driven by the sector and the size of the target within the transaction. All things being equal, the most important thing is to understand the industry drivers. Because then you will understand what kind of sustainability risks exist for those industries, backed by lots of research, statistics and quantifiable aspects.

It marries growth and systems. Ambition to grow is very optimistic. But are systems developed?

HR will highlight issues of culture. Is there strong cultural alignment or misalignment? Those are deemed to be soft issues until you are in it, and it becomes everything (laughs).

Because I believe that it shapes the day and it sets the tone. It also draws some limitations in terms of what can and cannot happen in that environment and provide safety. 

But more about the sector itself. When you have a target in manufacturing, you will focus on certain things. Occupational health and safety, manufacturing processes, the markets in which the targets operate. It’s often not significantly understood as to the impact that it can have. 

Why is this important? Because, if you are going to have to adopt regulation of another market into your own, by virtue of transacting across the border, you need to know that. And some of those things can have implications on taxes (such as green border taxes) or reporting regulation as well. 

One topical item that is really demanding the attention of executives, speaks to supply chains. Both from a modern slavery and human rights perspective within the supply chain, as well as the complexity that sits within the supply chain cross-border. These are nuances that, put down on paper, are well understood so that the right kind of picture can be set.

And coming back to my initial point, when leadership understands these issues at the right time, it changes and shapes the whole conversation.

Something that is deemed on the softer side, we call it a social licence to operate. The maturity level of this differs from region to region in terms of the consumers of those goods and services that we are talking about and their ability to push back. 

So, when we are saying the resilience and strategic planning is the ability to anticipate that ahead of time, it’s to reposition the business, put the transaction where it needs to be, increase the value or plan for risk and compliance matters. And those are things that, across the human resources or sustainability broad streams, come into being. 

You will appreciate that I haven’t mentioned governance, and it is the most critical thing. Because there’s a level of maturity when it comes to governance. There’s a level of code and understandability, and lesser, vague items when it comes to that. 

But it is contextualised back also to the operation itself, and it is read within context alongside the other aspects of the S and the G.

The Finance Ghost: It’s such an interesting area and I think what makes it tricky for you, I would imagine, and I wanted to ask you about this, is just the scope of work. There’s so much to think about, right? 

So, in Johan’s world, on the finance due diligence, he’s got these line items to work to, understands the common risks. Yes, there will always be some nuances specific to the company and specific to the sector. 

Althea’s world, it’s going to depend on assets, is it shares, sector rules, all of that stuff. But it’s still at least a relatively understandable scope, particularly for a finance person like me. And many of the listeners to this will be financial-type people, CFOs and the like.

So, in your world, how do you design a due diligence to try and catch – it almost feels like a catch-all? This is where everything else goes.

Are your staff unionised? Are they unhappy? Is there a culture issue? A very topical and highly politicised issue now would be, are all your staff correctly permitted to be working in South Africa? Depending on what industry you’re in, then there’s all the ESG stuff.

So how do you figure out where to spend your time when you’ve got so much you need to try and catch?

Bongiwe Mbunge: I love that question, Ghost, because this leans to your experience on the ground to be able to bring to life the sector supplement of what you need to look at and decide because you need to make a decision: what is most critical here?

Can something slip? Yes. But can something significant slip? No. 

That really is up to the experience that you are going to throw behind the execution of the due diligence. We must also highlight that an ESG due diligence can be R100,000, or R1 million. And you have got to understand critically the stakeholders that are going to be making a decision around what you are going to present to them and give guidance.

I’m going to repeat that: you need to give guidance. Because many of the buyers, eight out of 10 times, they don’t know what they need to be looking at because of the newness of the topic evolving into the office of the CEO and CFO. 

So, this is where we really need to bed down and say, in this particular transaction, given the reach into the markets and the sector and the size, this is the guidance of the minimum that we need to look at. And then take it from there.

The Finance Ghost: Incredibly interesting. And all of you have brought up this concept of cross-border transactions. It’s come up across the board here. 

And obviously, when you are doing stuff across the border, the level of risk changes once again. Because now you are dealing with another country’s laws just as a starting point – whether or not you’ve complied with not just what’s in that country but actually going across the border. 

Althea, you referenced transfer pricing. That’s a big one that has caught up some very, very big names in the market.

But Johan, just confirming that I’m right, that in a cross-border world, the risk in a due diligence, the amount of thinking that needs to go into planning it and trying to optimise the cost to the client (which is the point Bongiwe has just correctly raised) versus the risk: the complexity just goes through the roof, right?

Johan Marais: It certainly does. Complexity, and if you’re not careful, the costs as well, for performing the transaction from an advisory perspective. 

You have much more risk once you go cross-border. And to understand that risk, that’s very important. And it’s not foreign currency risk, but also the flow of funds in and out of a country, as well as a tax risk as well. 

When we do a due diligence, often there’s a subsidiary / associate / another investment that is outside the borders of South Africa. Now, we are very fortunate at Forvis Mazars, that we have a presence in almost 30 countries, which is fantastic when we assist the client to actually perform a potential acquisition, specifically on the tax side of things. 

Now tax is very specific. It needs to be done by the local team, and that’s where Althea and her teams really coordinate it from South Africa. They quarterback it here. So, I would almost ask Althea just to give a little bit of detail around just the benefit of actually using Forvis Mazars. 

Because not only is it the South African team that’s well diversified (financial, tax, ESG and a couple other streams,) but the assistance we get from our other local offices is fantastic up in Africa as well.

Althea Soobyah: I’ll do it by demonstration and by way of example. I think it’s best to do that. 

If we’ve got a tax/financial/ESG DD in South Africa, target being a South African company, but there’s layers underneath that – every country, be it in Africa or global, they have their own legislative frameworks. And more often than not, whilst it’s the South African shares being sold or the South African assets being stripped out, if there’s holding in South Africa that’s influencing its subsidiary level in an African country, that could very well trigger a tax consequence in the different region. 

Perfect example of that is in Tanzania – a shareholding being sold by foreign shareholders and the entity subsidiary sitting in Tanzania, holding the assets, might be affected. You might be triggering capital gains tax. There’s not just a transfer pricing issue with funding and cross-border transactions, but you might be triggering a capital gains tax because of immovable property or assets being held locally. There’s a sale of shares, at a foreign shareholder level, to South Africa or even globally.

So those are things that we look at when we need to look at the full picture in terms of the target, who’s the target; what the local requirements are, what the legislative framework is like. 

And it doesn’t only hold true for tax. It might be for ESG purposes, it might be from a labour perspective, from an economics and a social perspective. 

We know there’s a tendency in some of the African regions, where government makes decisions on a whim that will affect holding of assets and workforce, etc. 

Other things that are likely to have an impact is Place of Effective Management issues, bringing in foreign people that are coming into the country to establish that particular entity. There might be a setup of a new entity, depending on what the post-acquisition needs are.

That might impact and influence the due diligence from a tax perspective, from a financial perspective and from an ESG perspective. That’s what we’ve seen from a cross-border perspective. 

When we look at a coordination service, what’s important is how quickly we can pull together the resources. And what is that impact – what do we need to actually look at to provide advice to our clients that is holistic for them to make informed decisions, and how it’s going to impact the transaction? 

Will they set up an Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), are they going to retain the entity as part of their group structure? What do they need to do post-acquisition, to actually make sure that they tie all the aspects together?

The Finance Ghost: Althea, you raised Place Of Effective Management there. The acronym is POEM. The outcome is anything but poetry. 

Especially when there’s a Mauritian holding company, right? It’s super common.

You have a scenario where there are assets here, there are assets in Africa. You’ve got a Mauritian holding company, and you’ve got to make very sure that POEM is being done correctly. 

Otherwise, you think you’re buying one thing, and you’re buying something quite different. And legal jurisdiction and domicile is different to where you are a tax resident. 

The stuff is very, very, very complicated. There are, I have no doubt, a lot of deals that get done out there where a proper DD wasn’t done and nothing ever comes of it because it’s never assessed. No one ever finds out. 

Detection risk is part of it, but the reality is if you are doing a large transaction, you cannot ignore this stuff. 

If you are unlucky enough to be assessed, or someone comes and has a look or, in your world Bongiwe, something goes wrong from an HR perspective or ESG perspective. Or Johan, it turns out that actually the accounts receivable balance is almost impossible to collect and this thing doesn’t make cash.

A lot of money changes hands, and you’ve got the ability as a buyer to actually do a DD. If you either don’t do it properly or you don’t get the right people, or you don’t take it into account and structure the legals correctly, then that’s on you. There’s no consumer protection act here coming to save you. 

This is an assumption that you’ve got sophisticated people on both sides of the transaction, and if someone doesn’t pick this stuff up, then sorry for you. So that’s why this is so important. 

Bongiwe, I’m going to end off with you then. Just because you also bring such a wide variety of DD topics to the conversation, I think. 

So how do you make sure that all these elements are then reported back coherently, to give this overarching view on risk? I think particularly in your case, because I’m guessing when you’re presenting to CFOs and the like – Johan’s work, Althea’s work, that gets lots of attention, right? That’s their language.

For your stuff, you’ve got to maybe convince them a bit more of the importance, right?

Bongiwe Mbunge: Absolutely spot on. If I had a magic wand, I would fast-forward the interpretation of the outcomes of an ESG DD, to directly interpret and influence the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) in Johan’s calculation. So that you can be able to translate: what does this mean? Because I think that’s where the rubber meets the road. 

Yes, I see it. There’s a probability element; there’s a likelihood element; or unlikely. And therefore, depending on how optimistic the stakeholders feel around the transaction, they might just say “Good to know, and then we’ll move right along, we’ll keep it in mind”, only to have to deal with it in the future.

From a pre-conclusion perspective, we have got to distil the outcomes in simple language and translate it into potential risk. And not everything needs to be – you don’t need to ring a bell on absolutely everything. You use your experience to say these matters: yes, they’re important, yes, they need to be attended to. But you can make it a post-transaction thing to deal with.

But the pre-transaction elements is where the energy needs to go in, to make sure that if you are looking at the numbers, if you’re looking at the variables and the ratios over a number of years, and you marry that with what you are seeing on the non-financial element, then there’s a different dynamic. 

So, it’s the experience of the lead for the ESG DD to be able to harmonize that, to educate, and bring that on board without being an alarmist.

This is not about a “save the planet initiative” or “hugging the bear”. The commercial substance that can be influenced – these nuances needs to be understood for what they are. 

And so, I think coherently weaving that together and making sure that you are unequivocal about the recommendations that you are making, is important.

But ultimately, the decision is not resting with us. Have we actually delivered on the promise of saying we’ve highlighted significant things both on the upside and on the potential risk to give some level of clarity around some of the aspects that could enhance or compromise the transaction.

The Finance Ghost: Johan, let’s maybe finish off with you then. Any closing comments from your side for clients to be taking into account when they’re thinking about a due diligence and perhaps just a comment or two on the benefit of working with the Forvis Mazars team specifically. 

Johan Marais: If you don’t know what a financial due diligence or tax due diligence entails – phone us, make a coffee, we can explain a little bit about the risk, what the process entails. 

We do cover many angles of due diligence and that helps, especially the fees which someone would have had to pay for due diligence. Because all of the information is saved in one space, it’s shared between the different streams. Whether that’s only a South African business, whether it’s a foreign subsidiary, we work with the team overseas as you’ve heard as well. 

That saves not just in the time but also the frustration factor from the business that’s being sold. That person doesn’t want to deal with three or four different service providers. They deal with one service provider, that deals with many of the diligence aspects (yes, there might be a legal due diligence advisor as well). 

And that ultimately helps with deal execution: a shorter deal execution time. And also, we have quite a bit of experience managing different streams as well.

Thank you, Ghost.

The Finance Ghost: Thank you so much to the team and I will include the links to each of your LinkedIns and where people can find you on the Forvis Mazars website in the show notes. 

Johan, Althea, Bongiwe, thank you so much for your time. Good luck with whatever due diligences you’re currently working on. I’m sure they all bring unique challenges and something interesting. 

I look forward to getting some more insights from the three of you in years to come.

Johan Marais: Great stuff. Thank you so much.

Bongiwe Mbunge: Thank you, Ghost.

Althea Soobyah: Thank you. Great to be here.

Ghost Bites (Bytes Technology | Hyprop)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • What is VCP planning at Bytes Technology?
  • Hyprop is tapping the market for R500 million in fresh equity capital

What is VCP planning at Bytes Technology? (JSE: BYI)

This 5% stake is very interesting

Here’s an interesting one: Value Capital Partners (VCP) has taken a stake in Bytes Technology of just over 5%.

The way it works in the market is that each increment of 5% must be publicly announced. We won’t hear anything further unless VCP either drops below a 5% stake, or moves above a 10% stake.

VCP is generally not a passive investor, so it’s going to be interesting to see whether this is part of a broader plan to become more involved at Bytes.

The Bytes share price has been struggling. In 2024, the market had to get to grips with a scandal around undisclosed trades by the ex-CEO. Then, in mid-2025, there was a nasty profit warning that took the shine off a stock that used to enjoy a premium valuation.

Since then, it’s been a story of AI disruption concerns and a squeeze on margins related to Microsoft products, with little in the way of bullish sentiment to offset these issues:

Ghost Bite: Generally speaking, an institutional investor moving through a 5% threshold can be safely ignored. An exception is when that investor is known for playing a more activist role, or “constructivist” as the term sometimes goes. I look forward to seeing what happens here.


Hyprop is tapping the market for R500 million in fresh equity capital (JSE: HYP)

If market history is anything to go by, the REIT will increase the raise based on demand

When REITs announce an accelerated bookbuild, the end result is what it says on the tin: a book of investors is built very quickly.

By the time you read this, Hyprop will already know where the R500 million in capital will be coming from. There’s also a good chance of them upsizing the raise if demand is strong enough in the market.

There are very deep capital pools on the JSE thanks to the presence of institutional investors. These investors have a particular affinity for property funds, as they are strong dividend payers for the income-focused investors (the ultimate beneficiaries of these funds). Inflation protection is also very important, with many REITs doing a great job of delivering returns in excess of prevailing inflation levels.

Such is the demand in the market for REITs that these companies can often raise capital without even being specific around what the money will be used for. Hyprop has thankfully given us more information than that. They’ve provided a list of local and European projects that require capital.

On the local front, they’ve highlighted solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) projects at Canal Walk and Somerset Mall. There’s also an extension at Somerset Mall that needs money.

In Europe, Hyprop has flagged an extension at a property in Croatia. They are also looking more generically at “new acquisition and expansion opportunities” in Eastern Europe, other than the previously announced acquisition of Galleria Burgas in Bulgaria.

If there’s one thing that listed companies love, it’s a bit of flexibility around what to do with their money. I’m not surprised at all to see a generic comment like the one provided by Hyprop regarding Europe. In fact, I’m impressed that they’ve at least limited the acquisition targets to Europe, instead of just noting general acquisition opportunities across the markets of operation (i.e. including South Africa).

The guided growth in distributable income per share of between 10% and 12% for the year ended June 2026 is unaffected by this raise. That would make sense, as the raise is happening after that period! More importantly, it’s just Hyprop’s way of saying that they hit their growth target for the financial year. This comment is designed to encourage institutional investors to feel good about the management track record.

We will have to wait and see what the pricing on the raise looks like. They cannot issue shares at more than a 5% discount to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

Ghost Bite: Given the recent support of capital raises by REITs on the JSE, I doubt there will be much of a discount at all.

201
REITs vs. buy-to-let

What is your view on REITs vs. buy-to-let investments?


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A entity related to the founder of Capitec (JSE: CPI), Michiel le Roux, entered into a hedge over shares worth a whopping R6.6 billion at current prices. This is a funded put option transaction, which means that the shares have been pledged as collateral for a loan and then protected with put options to manage the downside risk. The strike price on the put option is R2,700 – way down from the current price of R4,795. The options have an expiry date of 1.16 years on average. It’s hard to imagine a market scenario in which this strike price becomes relevant, but a crisis can always happen.
    • A non-executive director of Famous Brands (JSE: FBR), who also happens to be a member of the founding family, sold shares worth over R1.2 million.
    • A director of Mr Price (JSE: MRP) bought shares worth R242k.
  • Datatec (JSE: DTC) shareholders should be aware that the company has announced the ratio applicable to the scrip distribution. In case you aren’t familiar with how these work, they give shareholders the option to receive new shares in the company in lieu of a cash dividend.
  • SAB Zenzeli Kabili (JSE: SZK) is in the process of getting approval for a special dividend of 57 cents per share from the SARB. It’s incredible how often the SARB approval for special dividends causes delays. The company now needs to revise the timing of the dividend,as the approval has not been obtained in time.

UNLOCK THE STOCK: Calgro M3

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst.

Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session. I facilitate the Q&A alongside Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us.

In the 72nd edition of Unlock the Stock, Calgro M3 (a regular on Unlock the Stock) joined us to discuss the recent financial performance and prospects of the group.

Watch the recording here:

Ghost Bites (Bank ratings upgrades | Mantengu | MAS | Oando)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Several SA banks enjoy a ratings upgrade from Fitch
  • Another potential bidder emerges for Mantengu’s Blue Ridge Platinum
  • Anticlimax: PKMI’s bid for MAS shares
  • Oando: a vertically integrated energy company that nobody talks about
  • Get the Nibbles (including director dealings)

Several SA banks enjoy a ratings upgrade from Fitch (JSE: ABG | JSE: FSR | JSE: INV | JSE: NED | JSE: SBK)

When the sovereign story improves, borrowing gets cheaper for the banking sector

South Africa still has a “junk” or speculative rating from Fitch, but at least things have been moving in the right direction. Fitch recently upgraded our sovereign debt from BB- to BB with a stable outlook.

Why does that matter? Well, apart from driving the cost of borrowing for the country as a whole, it also impacts the cost of borrowing for our corporates.

A South African corporate can have a very good rating by South African standards, but that’s exactly the point: it’s always relative to the sovereign rating. This is especially true for our banks, who have significant exposure to the government and broader economy.

Most of our local banks have all been upgraded from AA+(zaf) to AAA(zaf) by Fitch, with the part in brackets reminding investors that this is a South African debt rating. In other words, this isn’t directly comparable to an international AAA rating.

This should improve the cost of funding for Absa, FirstRand, Investec, Nedbank and Standard Bank, allowing them to be more competitive with their lending terms without sacrificing margin. I couldn’t find anything for Capitec (JSE: CPI) from Fitch, but S&P recently gave that bank an equivalent upgrade anyway.

Ghost Bite: Fiscal policy directly affects the cost of funding for our banks, which in turn impacts the availability and cost of credit for all South Africans. This is one of many reasons why government must always be held accountable for its actions!

202
Credit ratings

Do you take these ratings into account when buying shares?


Another potential bidder emerges for Mantengu’s Blue Ridge Platinum (JSE: MTU)

But the current potential buyer has an exclusivity in negotiations

Mantengu is in the process of negotiating a potential disposal of Blue Ridge Platinum to Afresources Mining. The ultimate controlling shareholders in that company are not related parties to Mantengu.

Some competitive tension has entered the chat, with an unsolicited offer coming in from a different party at a price that is higher than the Afresources indicative offer. We just don’t know how much higher, as there are no further details in the SENS announcement.

The challenge is that Mantengu had granted an exclusivity to Afresources, so they actually can’t engage on this other offer. This is precisely why buyers ask for exclusivity, and why sellers only grant it under rare circumstances. The removal of flexibility for one party in favour of the other is a key principle in any negotiation.

Will the Afresources offer get over the line? Or will those negotiations fall over, paving the way for this other deal to be negotiated? Keep in mind that even if Afresources doesn’t end up being the buyer, there’s no guarantee that the negotiations with the mystery buyer will be successful.

Ghost Bites: Welcome to the colourful world of corporate finance dealmaking. If this stuff was easy, then M&A specialists wouldn’t make nearly as much money as they do!


Anticlimax: PKMI’s bid for MAS shares (JSE: MAS)

Despite receiving many offers from MAS shareholders, PKMI didn’t acquire any further shares in the end

At the end of June, PKMI announced a bid to acquire up to 30 million MAS shares. It’s worth keeping in mind that the strategy at MAS has shifted fundamentally, with the company no longer focusing purely on property assets. In PKMI’s announcement of the bid, part of the rationale was that MAS shareholders would be given a potential liquidity event if the new strategy doesn’t align with their needs.

Well, so much for that liquidity…despite there being “strong participation” in the bid and selling offers more than twice the bid size (i.e. holders of more than 60 million MAS shares were willing to sell), PKMI elected not to buy any shares at all.

This is because PKMI wasn’t happy with the pricing that shareholders wanted. This means that no clearing price could be established under the bid, so the entire thing falls over. There’s no indication of what a suitable clearing price would’ve been. We also don’t know what prices were indicated by shareholders who wanted to sell.

Ghost Bite: The MAS share price is back to where it started this year, having plummeted during the conflict in Iran. It has been a difficult, sideways story overall.


Oando: a vertically integrated energy company that nobody talks about (JSE: OAO)

Will liquidity in this stock increase over time?

Nigerian energy group Oando has finally caught up on its financials, thanks to the release of results for the year ended December 2025.

This is a vertically integrated energy company, so you’ll see many metrics that you aren’t used to seeing. This includes Barrel of Oil Equivalent Per Day (boepd). Group boepd increased by 32% year-on-year, driven by higher output across crude oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGL). The full-year impact of the Nigerian Agip Oil Company joint venture consolidation has also been a positive contributor.

As you would expect, an energy company like this has a trading business designed to give them a smoother earnings profile across cycles. Crude oil traded volumes were up by 24%. It will be far more interesting to see how that business performed in the first half of 2026 based on all the chaos in global oil markets!

Trading volumes were down overall though, as the group changed its trading portfolio and got out of certain areas. Short-term pain for long-term gain, hopefully.

The production numbers sound exciting, but those volumes are just one part of the equation. Group revenue actually fell by 22.2% year-on-year, with the trading division driving the biggest decline.

Despite a decline in administrative expenses of 27.2%, operating profit was down by a nasty 58% in FY25.

Thanks to net finance costs decreasing by 43.4%, profit after tax only decreased by 7%. It certainly could’ve been worse.

To add to the strange shape of the income statement, earnings per share increased by 28%. Another positive element is that cash from operating activities swung from a substantial outflow to a decent inflow of N32.3 billion (roughly $23 billion at current rates).

For 2026, which is now halfway done already, the group expects production to increase to between 40,000 and 50,000 boepd. That’s a significant increase from 32,482 boepd in FY25. Supporting this strategy is a planned capex programme of between $90 and $100 million.

Ghost Bite: Above all else, I can’t wait to see what the numbers look like for the first half of the year after the conflict in Iran caused a spike in prices.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Here’s a strong bullish signal: the CEO of Clicks (JSE: CKS) bought shares worth almost R4.7 million. A different director also recently purchased shares. It’s worth noting that Clicks is down 29% year-to-date, so this gives some much-needed love to the bull case.
    • Two of the founding directors of Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP) sold share awards worth R3.26 million. The announcement doesn’t explicitly say that this was the taxable portion.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of 4Sight Holdings (JSE: 4SI) received shares in the company worth R989k. This relates to the previous acquisition of that subsidiary and the related participation of senior managers in the company’s stock awards.
    • A family entity linked to the CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) sold shares worth R500k. This is a broader restructuring need for other family members, rather than a reflection of the CEO’s personal view on the stock. Aside from the SENS being explicit on this, he also reached out to make sure I understood this nuance! I always appreciate engagement from top execs.
    • An associate of the CEO of Finbond (JSE: FGL) bought shares worth R446k. Separately, an associate of a non-executive director bought shares worth R390k.
    • Acting through Titan Premier Investments, the Wiese family bought shares in Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) worth R246k.
    • A director of Trematon (JSE: TMT) bought shares worth R95k.
  • Hulamin (JSE: HLM) announced that the Chairperson of the Board, Paul Baloyi, will no longer hold that office with effect from 6 July 2026 (i.e. immediately). If I understand the announcement correctly, he was removed by the board – a spicy and very unusual thing to happen. Linda Yanta has been appointed to the role on an interim basis. One wonders what has transpired here?

Ghost Bites (Lesaka Technologies | Spear REIT)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Lesaka Technologies wants to sweeten the deal for the executive chairman
  • Spear REIT has met all conditions for the acquisition of Watergate Centre
  • Get the Nibbles (including director dealings)
  • See the results of the previous poll
  • Catch up on Remgro, South32, Hudaco, Optasia and Supermarket Income REIT in the Ghost Bites podcast

Lesaka Technologies wants to sweeten the deal for the executive chairman (JSE: LSK)

There are good arguments to be made for and against these share options

In May, the board of Lesaka Technologies approved the grant of share options to Ali Mazanderani, the Executive Chairman of the company. This gives him the right to buy 1,000,000 shares at $5.00 per share, provided he remains continuously employed by the company until at least April 2028. That might sound like a long time, but keep in mind that this is less than two years away!

Bulls may give this the nod based on a desire to create alignment between shareholders and top management. If the share price goes up, the options become more valuable, creating a win-win decision for Mazanderani and other shareholders. It’s also worth noting that the strike price of $5.00 is quite similar to the current price of R84 per share. In other words, this option only becomes valuable if the share price increases significantly.

Bears could argue that alignment is irrelevant if executives are simply topped up when the previous tranche of options becomes worthless (Mazanderani currently has options to buy 4,000,000 shares at between $6.00 and $14.00 per share – options that are clearly out of the money). The reason these options are in trouble is that the Lesaka Technologies share price hasn’t performed:

Another important element to debate is that the options only become exercisable a year after the vesting condition is met (i.e. in April 2029). The window for exercise lasts for 12 months i.e. the latest possible date is April 2030. This gives the options a life of nearly four years from date of issuance. When it comes to options, a longer period makes them more valuable (as there’s a higher likelihood of the market price meaningfully exceeding the strike price). Does it make sense for the options to be exercisable for so long after the minimum employment commitment ends?

Shareholders are now being asked to vote on this remuneration plan. The results should be interesting!

Ghost Bite: In November last year, I recorded a very useful Ghost Stories podcast with Ali Mazanderani. Listen to it here and be sure to use that discussion as part of your research process on the company.

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Top-up share options - yay or nay?

What are your thoughts on these share options?


Spear REIT has met all conditions for the acquisition of Watergate Centre (JSE: SEA)

Transfer is expected during August 2026

A few months ago in April, Spear REIT announced the acquisition of Watergate Centre in Mitchells Plain. The good news is that the Competition Commission gave the transaction the green light, so it has now become unconditional. Spear expects to take ownership of the property during August.

This R442 million transaction gives Spear shareholders exposure to a convenience-oriented shopping centre that is anchored by Shoprite and Brights Hardware.

Given the location, it won’t come as a surprise to you that this is a value-focused centre. In other words, the tenant mix is designed to appeal to lower-income shoppers, one of the most exciting growth segments in South Africa.

As evidence of how sought-after this type of space tends to be, the centre is fully let. The price implies a purchase yield of 8.37%, with a weighted average escalation of 6.70%. This escalation looks lucrative in the context of CPI inflation, but keep in mind that the actual inflation rate for retail centres tends to be considerably higher thanks to energy, security and municipal costs.

The most interesting element of the deal is that at the time of the initial announcement, the weighted average lease duration was only 1.86 years. This is because the property was developed roughly 9 years ago, so many of the leases are reaching their renewal phase. For Spear shareholders, it will be important for the property fund to achieve positive reversions on the leases.

Ghost Bite: This is a good indication of the diversification that can be achieved even by sticking to one region. The focus on the Western Cape doesn’t mean that all of Spear’s assets are shiny tourist destinations. Far from it, in fact!


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An alternate non-executive director of WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC) sold shares worth R21.4 million. This substantial sale is described as “being for the purpose of, inter alia, settling obligations relating to other instruments”. This could mean derivatives, funding deals or something else.
    • The CEO of Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) bought C preferred shares (linked to ACOF) worth R9k.
  • For those keeping score, Novus Holdings (JSE: NVS) is now up to a 50.44% direct stake in Mustek (JSE: MST) and a 70.73% stake when combined with concert parties.
  • Dipula Properties (JSE: DIB) renewed the cautionary announcement that was first issued on 22 May this year. We still don’t know what negotiations the company is actually busy with. They merely refer to “potential corporate activities”.
  • Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) reminded shareholders that they are in the process of applying for a provisional liquidation of the company. This comes after the termination of a proposed transaction that they hoped might save the entity.

A drag queen, a panda and the King (of rock ‘n’ roll)

Elvis, Lady Gaga and a nature-loving drag queen have all found themselves on the wrong end of a trademark fight. Some of them won, some of them lost, but only one of them got offered free ice-cream as compensation.

At the end of last year, a man named Wyn Wylie completed a 160 kilometre hike in full drag attire – voluminous wig, smokey eyeliner, carabiner earrings and all – in order to raise money for 8 environmental and LGBTQ+ nonprofits. The effort raised more than $1 million dollars from almost 35,000 individual donors via its GoFundMe. 

This isn’t Wylie’s first time traversing the great outdoors in makeup either; his drag persona, Pattie Gonia, has made a name for herself as an “outdoorsy queen” who raises funds and awareness for environmental issues by taking drag into nature. Here’s the Instagram.

Before I go on with the story, let me clarify a few things that you might not know about drag queens. Drag queens are performance artists – usually men, although there are a few rare female examples – who use clothing, makeup, and exaggerated mannerisms to play with and celebrate femininity. It’s more than just men in women’s clothing, and it’s not about men who want to be women. A drag queen creates a persona with a name and female pronouns and inhabits that persona only when they are performing – which is why I’ll write he/him when referring to Wylie and she/her when referring to Pattie Gonia, his drag persona. 

There’s a long tradition of innuendo and parody in drag. You’ll encounter drag personas with names like Minnie Van Driver, Ariel Versace, Cookie Buffet, Farah Moan and Formelda Hyde. Drag queens are also known for doing drag impersonations of celebrities, politicians and even, in some cases, world leaders. As you can imagine, this occasionally gets them into trouble.

Wyn’s persona, Pattie Gonia, was named after Patagonia the place, not Patagonia the outdoor apparel brand. The outdoor apparel brand is the one taking Pattie to court though – for the princely sum of $1.

The company said in the filing that it was responding to Wylie’s application to trademark Pattie Gonia as a brand. This would mean a move from simply using the name Pattie Gonia (something Patagonia hasn’t had an issue with up until now) to potentially selling products and organising events. Patagonia told the BBC “the last thing we wanted was a legal fight with someone who shares our values”. 

It’s an unusually tender thing to say to someone you are suing. But then, trademark law has always been one of the stranger corners of the legal world – the place where serious companies argue with total sincerity about whose pun belongs to whom. Before we get to how Patagonia’s dollar fits into all this, it’s worth meeting a few of the more colourful trademark disputes that came before it. 

Elvis Presley vs BrewDog

In 2015, the Scottish brewery BrewDog launched a grapefruit IPA called Elvis Juice. Authentic Brands Group – the company that manages Elvis Presley’s name and estate – was not amused. It wrote to BrewDog’s founders, James Watt and Martin Dickie, instructing them to drop the name or else. Watt and Dickie said “try us” and legally changed their own first names to Elvis by deed poll so that they could claim they had named the beer after themselves. A word of caution when arguing with Scottsmen: expect the unexpected. 

The UK’s Intellectual Property Office was initially unswayed by the hijinks of the brewers and ruled in favour of the King’s estate in 2017, on the grounds that drinkers might mistake the beer for an official Presley product. However, on appeal, that decision was overturned. The common thread of “Elvis”, the ruling found, was not enough on its own to make anyone think the King had gone into the session-IPA business. Two men (recently) named Elvis won, and they’re still selling Elvis Juice by the crate today. 

WWF vs WWF/E

In 2000, the World Wide Fund for Nature (the one with the panda logo) took the World Wrestling Federation (the one with the muscly people in spandex) to the High Court in England over the use of their shared initials – WWF. The Fund had seniority by a wide margin, having registered the letters in 1961, a full 18 years before the wrestling promotion adopted them. The two WWFs had coexisted confusingly but harmoniously for decades, and had even signed an agreement in 1994 under which the Wrestling Federation promised to keep the plain initials (which were used by the Fund) out of its branding.

What broke the peace was the internet. In 1997 the Wrestling Federation launched WWF.com and rolled out a new “scratch” logo that put the letters back on open display. The Fund considered both actions a breach of their agreement. The Federation’s defence was unusual but not without merit: a contract signed in 1994 could not possibly have anticipated the mass adoption of the world wide web, and so, it argued, shouldn’t be held to cover it. Its other line of defence was that no one on earth would ever confuse a wildlife charity with a wrestling show, since nobody was at real risk of mistaking a panda for The Rock.

The court ruled for the Fund, the Court of Appeal ruled for the Fund again, and the Federation was ordered to rebrand, which it did through a marketing campaign titled “Get The F Out” (I promise I’m not making this up). It’s been calling itself World Wrestling Entertainment – or WWE – since then. The pandas, unfussed and unbothered, have shown us that it pays to give an F about your brand.

Lady Gaga vs two ice-cream parlours

If I had a R10 for every time Lady Gaga threatened to take an ice-cream parlour to court for naming a flavour after her, I’d have R20, which feels… anticlimactic. The drama kicked off in 2011, when Gaga’s lawyers sent a cease-and-desist to a London parlour called The Icecreamists, which was selling a £14 scoop of ice-cream made with human breast milk under the name “Baby Gaga”. 

There’s a lot to unpack there, so let’s just stick to the legals.

The claim was that the product was deliberately provocative and might damage Gaga’s reputation – an argument made, it should be noted, by a woman who had recently (one year earlier, in 2010) attended an awards show wearing a dress constructed entirely of raw meat. 

The flavour did vanish from the menu, but not because of her. Westminster Council had already seized it for health-and-safety testing, and though the ice-cream was cleared a fortnight later (the woman who donated the milk was a registered milk donor and therefore in perfect health), the phrase “health and safety testing” does unhappy things to customers’ brains. Gaga got her result without ever needing to go all the way to court.

In 2015 she was embroiled in an ice-cream related battle again, this time against a maker called The Licktators and their “Royal Baby Gaga” flavour. This one didn’t contain any breast milk (despite what the name alluded). It was launched to mark the birth of Princess Charlotte. Gaga’s team sent a warning. This time the reply was less accommodating. The parlour declined to withdraw anything, noted that “gaga” is among the first sounds most babies make and can hardly belong to one pop star, and offered to send her some complimentary tubs of ice-cream “for chilling out to.” No lawsuit followed. Turns out it isn’t that easy to sue someone once they’ve offered you dessert.

Back to Patagonia

Set against a brewery that renamed its own founders, a wrestling empire outlasted by a panda, and a pop star defeated at least once by frozen dairy, the suit against Pattie Gonia is remarkable mostly for how little it actually wants. Patagonia is asking a court to mark the precise moment a fond tribute becomes a business – the line between borrowing a name out of love and registering it to sell things – and it’s asking as gently as a legal filing will allow.

Pattie Gonia is not a stranger to what Patagonia stands for. She hikes the same mountains, champions the same causes, and named herself, however cheekily, in the same direction. The company knows this, which is why the $1 lawsuit reads less like a demand and more like a hand on the shoulder: we love what you’re doing, truly – just not quite under our name, please.

Whether a court will see it that way is another matter. Trademark law, as we’ve seen, is not sentimental, and it has a habit of turning warm intentions into cold precedent. But of all the ways a billion-dollar brand could come after a drag queen in hiking boots, asking for a single dollar and admitting she shares your values might be the closest the genre gets to a love letter. Pattie will keep her heels. Patagonia will keep its logo. And somewhere between them sits a dollar nobody especially wants, marking the spot where two friends agree to each stay on their own side of the mountain.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

You can learn more about her work at dominiqueolivier.com and she can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Hudaco | Optasia | Supermarket Income REIT)

New: Ghost Bites on YouTube

Wish you could listen to Ghost Bites, not just read it? Subscribe to my YouTube channel and you’ll get regular highlights from Ghost Bites. It will always be on the website first, but I’ll do my best to release these daily or as close to daily as possible. I won’t be covering the Nibbles (including director dealings) in the video, so be sure to read as often as possible and to treat the audio as a backup!

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Hudaco’s consumer-related products segment boosted the interim period
  • Signs of life at Optasia – but I’m waiting for detailed results
  • Supermarket Income REIT refinances £445 million in debt

Hudaco’s consumer-related products segment boosted the interim period (JSE: HDC)

And they have some serious headaches in discontinued operations to deal with

Hudaco’s results for the six months ended May tell a very different story in continuing operations vs. total operations. They’ve had a tough time in a couple of their business units, as described in detail by the company in a recent trading update.

The continuing operations look good at least, with turnover up 9.5% and operating profit up 11.2%. This tells us that margins expanded, which is always an encouraging sign. The interim dividend was 10% higher, so they’ve just managed to achieve double-digit growth.

The group generated operating cash flow of R478 million before taxes and finance expenses. The net borrowings sit at R654 million. The balance sheet is in decent shape overall, with plenty of headroom in existing facilities. They are also looking to reduce their borrowings over the remainder of this year (subject to any potential acquisitions).

In the segmental split, we find consumer-related products contributing 45% of group operating profit. From continuing operations, sales were up 2.7% and operating profit increased by 8.8%, so this is where you’ll find the most impressive positive move in margin.

The engineering consumables segment contributed 55% of group operating profit. Acquisitions were the major source of growth here, as the industrial side of South Africa remains a tough place to play. Turnover was up 15.3% and operating profit increased 19.3%, so there was some margin uplift here as well. But on a like-for-like basis, without acquisitions, turnover was up just 2.4% and operating profit only increased by 2.1%, so the mix effect of acquisitions drove the margin uplift. This isn’t nearly as good as the consumer-related products division, where margin uplift was more sustainable in nature.

The discontinued operations are the alternative energy business (a load shedding casualty) and the battery bay management and battery service business within Eternity Technologies (affected by the market entry of a competitor). They will need to try and get out of these businesses with the minimal amount of pain.

Ghost Bite: In the difficult industrials sector, a strong balance sheet is critical. Aside from the resilience that it brings, it also allows companies to take advantage of market conditions by acquiring other businesses at good prices. Let’s see how Hudaco handles the second half of the year.


Signs of life at Optasia – but I’m waiting for detailed results (JSE: OPA)

The margin mix needs to be understood properly

Optasia has been under plenty of pressure recently, as the airtime credit offering was simply switched off in Nigeria and nobody really seemed to notice. That’s not exactly evidence of a strong moat.

But then we finally saw some insider buying from the CEO, as well as the founding director (who had sold a big chunk to FirstRand (JSE: FSR) this year). To add to the bullishness, we now have an interim trading update that tells a much glossier story around the company than the share price would suggest.

Investors will now need to consider the underlying growth vs. how vulnerable the airtime credit business model appears to be.

In the six months ended June, Optasia generated 72% of revenue from the micro-financing solutions (MFS) business. I don’t think this reflects the sustainable mix, as the disastrous period for the airtime credit business would’ve artificially boosted this contribution from MFS.

Still, there’s clearly some resilience here, as Optasia managed revenue growth of between 50% and 60% for the period. Adjusted EBITDA growth was between 40% and 50%, with some surprising margin pressure clearly coming through there. It gets worse further down, where net income grew by between 30% and 40%.

Don’t get me wrong – these are strong growth rates obviously. But is the mix effect of airtime credit vs. MFS driving this weaker margin performance? And what does that mean for the future? It’s hard to know for sure until we get the detailed results in September.

Also, don’t underestimate how risky the underlying markets are. Optasia’s recent geographical expansion includes South Sudan. This country is literally a humanitarian catastrophe. On the plus side, they also expanded into Gabon, which is one of the wealthier African countries on a GDP per capita basis.

For the year ending December 2026, the company has reaffirmed guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of over 30%. This includes a “prudent” assumption around the recovery of volumes in Nigeria. Normalised net income is expected to grow by between 25% and 35%.

As you can see from the chart, the combination of insider buying and this update has injected some life into this broken post-IPO story:

Ghost Bite: If nothing else, this is another reminder for those with trading portfolios that insider buying can be a strong signal. There’s a reason why I cover the director dealings every single day in Ghost Bites.

284
Optasia bulls and bears

Where do you currently sit on the Optasia spectrum?


Supermarket Income REIT refinances £445 million in debt (JSE: SUPR)

This deals with all the facilities maturing in the next two years

At property companies, debt is a feature rather than a bug. They need debt in order to achieve decent return on equity for shareholders. The theory is that property is the ideal asset class to act as security for debt, making it easily available and a cost-effective source of finance.

Supermarket Income REIT (based in the UK) has refinanced £445 million in debt. This deals with four different facilities that were due to mature in the next two years. Rather than waiting until the last minute, companies will often refinance ahead of time.

A major strategic element of these refinancing transactions is the composition of the banking syndicate. Creating competitive tension among banks is one of the benefits of achieving scale. In addition to the four banks in the existing facilities, the company has now introduced two additional banking relationships.

Following this transaction, the company will have no debt maturing until 2028. The weighted average cost of debt is 4.4% and 98% of it is fixed or hedged. Compared to the replaced facilities, the new facilities deliver an annual interest cost saving of c.£0.3 million.

Separately, the company declared a quarterly dividend of 1.545 pence per ordinary share. The exchange rate for South African shareholders will be confirmed by 20 July.

Ghost Bite: As much as I love the intricate storytelling of equity, the world of corporate debt is also really interesting. I particularly enjoy all the different layers of a cake that make up a balance sheet, with a variety of debt structures that carry different costs and maturities.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
  • Mantengu (JSE: MTU) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding the potential reverse takeover transaction with Averi Finance. Mantengu has appointed legal advisors for the due diligence, as a transaction of this nature (a combination of assets from both companies) requires a two-way due diligence.
  • I’m not sure what they are up to at Vunani (JSE: VUN), but they’ve appointed the ex-CEO of MTN Zambia to the board. The describe these ICT skills as “contributing significantly to the continued growth and strategic objectives of the company” – even though they don’t have any ICT assets. Interesting.
  • Combined Motor Holdings (JSE: CMH) has renewed the cautionary related to the potential acquisition of properties owned by directors.
  • Trustco (JSE: TTO) has updated the market on the timing to complete the Namibian and South African audits at subsidiary level. They expect this to be finalised in the fourth quarter of the year. Keep in mind that this relates to financials for the years ending August 2024 and August 2025, with the company suspended from trading and far behind on its financials.
  • Sail Mining Group (JSE: SGP) has been suspended from trading since mid-2022. They are hellishly behind on financial reporting, with audits in progress for the 2022 to 2024 financial years. They are looking to delist the company anyway. I’ll be interested to see if an offer to shareholders can be approved without recent financial information to work from.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

South32 has entered into a binding conditional agreement to dispose of its global aluminium value chain to Alcoa, an American industrial corporation producing aluminum. The transaction, with an implied enterprise value of up to US$5,6 billion, will see Alcoa acquire South32’s interests in Worsley Alumina (86%), Hillside Aluminium (100%), MRN bauxite mine (33%), Brazil Alumina refinery (36%) and Brazil Aluminium smelter (40%). Excluded from the transaction is Mozal Aluminium which remains on care and maintenance. Alcoa will pay an upfront consideration of $3,1 billion, $1,08 billion in Alcoa shares, will assume $750 million in net debt and lease liabilities and pay a further $750 million if alumina and aluminium prices exceed agreed thresholds over the next four years. The divestment repositions South32 as a pure-play, upstream base metals producer predominantly in copper and zinc.

Labat Africa is to acquire an additional 24.45% stake in Classic International for a purchase consideration of R27 million to be settled through the issue of 900 million Labat shares at an issue price of R0,03 per share. The additional stake will result in Labat holding a 100% shareholding in the business. Classic provides high-performance computing hardware, AI-driven analytics capability and disruptive engineering solutions designed to improve operational efficiency in complex enterprise environments.

In terms of the proposed scheme of arrangement, Brikor will buy back a maximum of 116,1 million shares at 17 cents per share for an aggregate R19,7 million. The offer excludes Nikkel Trading 392 and the Brikor Share Incentive Scheme. The high costs of maintaining a public listing and the persistent illiquidity of its shares were cited as the primary reasons for its exit.

In April, Clientèle announced the proposed delisting of the company by way of a conditional offer effected through a pro rata repurchase of shares. The offer, in respect of no more than 36,261,776 offer shares at R19.90 per share closed this week with acceptances of 21,097,797 shares for an aggregate R419,85 million.

Vodacom has updated shareholders on its acquisition of an additional 20% stake in Safaricom announced in December 2025. Conditions precedent have been fulfilled and the acquisition is effective as of 30 June 2026.

The disposal agreement of the Arlington Property for a cash consideration of US$30 million announced by PPC in August 2025 has lapsed with the agreement becoming null and void. The disposal consideration did not occur by the extended longstop date of 30 June 2026. The property remains a non-core asset for the company.

Zeder Investments has extended the long stop date of its announced February 2026 disposal of Zaad to 30 November 2026 from the initial 31 July 2026.

Differential Capital and its consortium of investors have taken an equity stake in the mining division of Murray and Roberts (in business rescue) for R1,27 billion. The business rescue plan was approved in April 2026, and the transaction was completed on 25 June 2026, securing the transfer of numerous local and foreign subsidiaries in South Africa, Canada, Australia, Portugal and Chile among others. The transaction has preserved 2,600 jobs and safeguards vital mining capabilities.

Strategic Transfer Solutions (STS), a global insurance and reinsurance broker, has acquired 100% of Aircraft Risk Company (ARC), an aviation brokerage, marking an expansion into the aviation specialist area. Beyond Africa, STS will scale its footprint into Europe, Latin America and Asia in which ARC will play a meaning role in its global strategy. For the meantime ARC will continue to operate under its existing brand.

Infra Impact Investment Managers (IIIM), through its Mid-Market Infrastructure Fund I, has acquired a minority shareholding in Cape Town Biogas, an organic waste processing facility. The stake was acquired from Metier Sustainable Capital Fund II, which remains the controlling investor. Cape Town Biogas utilises leading anaerobic digestion technology to process 250 tonnes of organic waste per day into three valuable outputs – Compressed Biomethane, Renewable Beverage-Grade Carbon Dioxide and valuable agricultural inputs.

Preference Capital has received a R350 million capital injection from Titan Premier Investments. Preference Capital supports businesses generating up to R1 billion in turnover, offering unsecured loans from R100,000 to R7 million and secured facilities to a maximum of R60 million.

Mauritian headquartered private equity firm Adena Partners has acquired a majority stake the Minet Group, a South African-based pan-African risk insurance adviser. Minet provides insurance brokerage, risk advisory, and employee benefits solutions to a diverse base of clients, including corporates, SMEs, and institutions across nine African countries. The stake was acquired from private equity investor Capitalworks. Financial details were undisclosed.

South African non-profit organisation Afrika Tikkun Group has disposed of its advisory, recruitment, training and placement company Afrika Tikkun Services. The disposal, to a consortium, will allow the Group to build and focus on its model for child and youth development. Afrika Tikkun Services will change its name to ATS and will operate independently under the new ownership. Financial details were not disclosed.

Maia Capital Partners has provided R150 million in mezzanine debt financing to Nesa Power, a commercial and industrial solar and battery storage developer. The funding will be used as growth capital to acquire solar photovoltaic project sites and expand Nesa’s portfolio of long-term power purchase agreements.

African International Schools network, Enko Education, has entered the East African market through the acquisition of Kitengela International Schools (KISC), a group of seven schools across three campuses in Kenya’s Kitengela region. KISC will retain its name, identity and day-to-day operations.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Fortress Real Estate has place 55,670,104 Fortress B shares representing c.4.5% of the company’s B ordinary share capital. The placement is by way of an accelerated bookbuild offering. The shares were placed at a price of R24.25 per B ordinary share representing a 1% discount to the 30-day VWAP of 29 June 2026. Proceeds will be used to advance the rollout of the SA and CEE logistics development pipeline and to capitalise on retail opportunities.

PKMI has announced that it intends to acquire up to 30 million MAS plc shares. Shareholders may offer all or part of their MAS shares. If the bid is fully accepted, PKMI’s shareholding in MAS will increase from 61.3% to 65.7%. Shareholders have until 3 July 2026 to offer their shares.

Pan African Resources will issue 102,641,421 new shares in the form of Pan African CDIs to Emmerson shareholders as settlement of the aggregate scheme consideration. The shares will be issued at £1.09 per share.

Suspended in July 2022, Sail Mining announced in December 2025 that it would make a conditional offer to repurchase, on a pro rata basis, all the company’s ordinary shares and would simultaneously terminate its listing on the AltX Board of the JSE. Shareholder approval is required – updates to follow in due course.

SAB Zenzele Kabili will pay shareholders a special dividend of 57 cents per share from income reserves. The dividend will be paid on 20 July 2026.

PBT will make a capital reduction distribution to shareholders of 18.5 cents from income reserves with a payment date of 20 July 2026.

The Capital Appreciation Empowerment Trust has disposed of 40 million Araxi shares in a block trade at R1.85 per share. The proceeds will be used to repay all its debt and leave the remaining assets, 35 million Araxi shares, unencumbered.

Sebata’s listing was suspended in October 2025 for failing to publish its audited financial results ended March 31, 2025, and interim results for the period ended 30 September 2025 within the prescribed period. The company has now published these results and expects the listing to be reinstated on the JSE on or before 31 July 2026.

The JSE has warned shareholders of Mantengu, Visual International, Brikor and Copper 360 that the companies have failed to submit their annual report within the four-month period as stipulated in the JSE Listing Requirements. The companies have until 31 July to submit their financials or face the possible suspension of their shares on the exchange.

Reinet Investments intends to purchase its ordinary shares at market value for
an aggregate maximum amount of €500 million subject to a maximum of 16.5 million ordinary shares over a period up to the 2027 Annual General Meeting of the Company. The implementation will be through several successive and separate programmes and shares will not be cancelled. The Rupert family has declared its intention not to sell any shares during the duration of this Programme. This week Reinet acquired 399,415 shares on the JSE for an aggregate R185,54 million.

Sun International repurchased a total of 5,1 million ordinary shares representing 2% of the issued share capital of the company for a total consideration of R256 million. The shares were acquired at an average price of R50.08 per share.

Hammerson has repurchased 747 ordinary shares from MUFG Corporate Markets at 5 pence per share. The shares will be used to meet obligations arising from its employee share option schemes.

Equites Property Fund has proposed a specific share repurchase of up to 168,596 ordinary shares which will be subject to shareholder approval. The shares will be repurchased from participants of the company’s conditional share plan and will provide participants with a straightforward method of disposing of shares to settle tax liabilities due on vested shares without having to sell them on the open market.

The JSE has repurchased 1,105,477 shares, representing 1.28% of the company’s issued share capital. The shares were acquired over the period 5 to 24 June 2026 for an aggregate R175 million.

Aimia continued with its repurchase programme during June 2026, repurchasing on the open market 165,400 shares at an average $2.79 per share for a total settlement of $461,373.

To reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders, Quilter commenced, in March 2026, a £100 million share buyback programme. Repurchases to date total £40 million of which £32 million were conducted on the LSE and £8 million were conducted on the JSE. The maximum aggregate purchase price payable by the Company under Tranche 2 is up to C.£30 million. During the period 22 to 26 June 2026, Quilter repurchased 5,431,489 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £10,24 million and 1,350,160 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R55,40 million.

In June, Greencoat Renewables announced its intention to commence a second tranche of the repurchase programme which will return a further €25m of capital to shareholders, following the completion of the first tranche which is expected during July. The second tranche repurchase will be complete by end-December 2026. This week 1,147,193 shares were repurchased for an aggregate €842,952.

Bytes Technology announced in May 2026 its intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million. This week the company repurchased 473,637 shares at an average price per share of £3.67 for an aggregate £1,74 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. Over the period 22 to 26 June 2026, the company repurchased a further 597,155 shares at an average price of £45.75 per share for an aggregate £27,52 million.

Ninety One plc announced an increase in the repurchase programme from £30 million to £55 million to be completed by 21 July 2026. The shares, to be purchased on the open market, will be cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 1,154,489 ordinary shares at an average price 211 pence for an aggregate £2,44 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 22 to 26 June 2026, the group repurchased 519,711 shares for €37,74 million.

During the period 22 to 26 June 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,508,852 Prosus shares for an aggregate €94,78 million and Naspers, a further 911,265 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R742,03 million.

Three companies issued profit warnings this week: Bell Equipment, Goldrush and Hudaco Industries.

Five companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Labat Africa, Brikor, Trustco, Mantengu and Combined Motor Holdings.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

Plug and Play has invested an undisclosed sum in Kenyan fintech, Lemonade Payments. The company builds modern, compliant infrastructure that makes sending, receiving, and settling payments across Africa faster, simpler, and more affordable.

The Government of Uganda has signed a €110,5 million (US$126,1 million) agreement with Standard Chartered Uganda, to help finance the construction of a road in the country’s northeast region. The road will be built in Karamoja, a remote region in Uganda’s northeast ‌on ⁠the border with Kenya. According to the finance ministry, the road will also help ⁠support ongoing major investments in the region, including a $300 million ⁠cement factory and a $72 million international airport.

Centum Investment Company Plc has sold a 60% stake in Nabo Capital to Rock Investment Bank, cutting its holding to 40%. Nabo will cease to be a Centum subsidiary and become an associate company, with Rock joining as strategic shareholder to support growth in asset management, product expansion and distribution.

Adenia Partners has acquired a majority stake in Minet Group from Capitalworks for an undisclosed sum. Minet provides insurance brokerage, risk advisory, and employee benefits solutions to a diverse base of clients, including corporates, SMEs, and institutions across nine African countries: Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Prior to its acquisition by Capitalworks in 2017, Minet was part of Aon, the global insurance broker.

FSD Africa Investments announced a US$1,25 million commitment in iungo Capital, a lender that provides growth financing to small businesses across East Africa. The investment will strengthen iungo’s capital base, enabling it to borrow more and accelerate lending to businesses that struggle to access finance. Operating across Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania, iungo provides US$-denominated loans of $250,000 on average in a first round, pairing capital with targeted technical assistance to strengthen business performance and support long-term growth.

Oxano Capital has invested in Uganda’s Delta Bee. Through its work with thousands of smallholder beekeepers, the company produces and processes high-quality honey and other bee products while creating sustainable income opportunities for rural communities. Delta Bee has built an integrated business model that combines farmer support, processing, manufacturing of beekeeping equipment, and market access, making it a key player in Uganda’s growing agribusiness sector. Terms of the investment were not disclosed.

Oyass Capital, a sub-fund of FONSIS (Sovereign Fund for Strategic Investments), has announced a CFA 1,3 billion investment in La Ripaille, a Senegalese poultry company. The funding is structured as equity and debt compliant with Sharia law.

African International Schools network, Enko Education, has entered the East African market through the acquisition of Kitengela International Schools (KISC), a group of seven school sections across three campuses in Kenya’s fast-growing Kitengela region. KISC will retain its name, identity, culture, leadership and day-to-day operations. Learners will continue with the same teachers, curricula and school culture.

Beltone Venture Capital, a subsidiary of Beltone Holding, is expanding its investment in Egyptian consumer brands ariika and Lychee. This comes as both companies prepare to grow their presence in Saudi Arabia. ariika, a direct-to-consumer digital-led home furnishing brand, will launch two stores in Riyadh as part of its Saudi expansion. The company already operates across Egypt and Iraq and views the Kingdom as a strategic market for its regional ambitions. Health food and beverage brand Lychee is also expanding into Riyadh with three new outlets. The company said it spent several years studying Saudi consumer preferences before moving forward with the rollout.

Côte d’Ivoire-based Afro Mobile is acquiring a 40% stake in Nigeria’s ISAT Group. The company is preparing to launch an ultra-fast internet service powered by 5G Stand Alone technology. Its aim is to provide high-speed connectivity accessible to all segments of African society, with a particular focus on rural and underserved communities. Afro Mobile also announced that its expansion program will rely on a US$3 billion financing package structured and mobilized by Equiline Finance, providing the capital required to support large-scale infrastructure deployment across multiple markets.

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