Friday, April 17, 2026
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The gender gap compounds – why SA women shouldn’t wait to invest

Lauren Jacobs, Senior Portfolio Manager at Satrix, highlights some of the challenges faced by women on their wealth creation journey – and what to do about them.

South African women face a financial reality that is both structural and compounding. According to a 2025 BEE Chamber analysis, women in this country earn an estimated 23% to 35% less than men for the same work; roughly R72.44 for every R100 earned by a male counterpart. Add the career breaks that often come with maternity leave or caregiving, along with the fact that women typically live longer, and the long-term maths starts tilting against us quickly.

The most powerful response is simple and available to everyone: start early. Investing is like planting a tree ‒ you water it, nurture it and give it time to grow. Time is the single greatest advantage any investor has, and for women, starting early matters even more because the headwinds are real.

The compounding cost of career breaks

Women are more likely than men to step away from the workforce, whether for maternity leave, caregiving responsibilities or other life milestones. While these breaks are often necessary, they can carry a cost that stretches far beyond the months or years spent out of the office.

When women take breaks, it reduces not only their income, but also their contributions to long-term savings. Even a few missed years can have a meaningful effect on compound growth. And because these breaks often happen during what could be peak earning years, the long-term impact can be disproportionate.

That is why building momentum early matters so much. A head start gives your money more time to keep compounding, even when life temporarily slows your ability to contribute.

The pay gap makes every rand work harder

Lower earnings do not just mean less money today. Over time, it means reduced contributions to retirement funds and investment accounts, and those smaller contributions can lead to very different outcomes over decades.

Career breaks and pay gaps also reinforce each other. Together, they can slow salary progression and shrink the ability to catch up later. Starting earlier does not remove that pressure entirely, but it does help reduce it by giving women more of the one input money cannot buy back: time.

Longevity changes the maths

Living longer is a gift, but it changes the arithmetic of retirement. Statistics South Africa’s 2025 mid-year population estimates put life expectancy at 69.6 years for women and 64.0 years for men – a gap of nearly six years.

Those extra years increase the risk of outliving your savings, especially if you start retirement with less set aside. And it is not only day-to-day living costs that continue for longer; healthcare costs and inflation are also working against you over that extended period.

What you can do without overcomplicating it

Take an approach that is grounded in consistency: building habits that can survive real life.

The first step is simply to stay consistent. Every monthly contribution matters when you start early and leave that money to grow. No matter the amount, even R100 a month can help build the habit. If you do need to pause contributions for a while, try not to withdraw from your savings.

Second, make use of your tax-free savings account. In the 2026 Budget Speech, government increased the annual investment limit from R36 000 to R46 000, while the lifetime limit remains R500 000. It is a powerful vehicle because you receive the full return on your capital without paying tax on that growth.

Third, where possible, try to preserve your retirement savings when leaving a corporate environment. Options like a preservation fund can keep your savings within the retirement framework and preserve the associated tax benefits.

And for women outside an employer pension scheme, whether self-employed or between jobs, a retirement annuity can help maintain momentum. Contributions are generally tax-deductible, subject to applicable limits and individual circumstances, and growth accumulates tax-free within the structure.

The real shift is in mindset

Platforms like SatrixNow make it possible to access ETFs, tax-free investments and retirement annuities in one place. Accessing these options is often easier than people assume.

But beyond products and percentages, the real shift is personal. It is about taking ownership of your financial future, building discipline, and investing in your financial literacy. The more comfortable you become with investing, the more confident you can feel about making decisions that will benefit you over the long term.

The gap is real, but it is not destiny. The earlier you start, the more power you have over your outcome.

This article was first published here.

Disclaimer

Satrix consists of the following authorised Financial Services Providers: Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd and Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd. The information does not constitute financial advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSPs, their shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. 

Ghost Bites (MTN – Optasia | Ninety One | Orion Minerals | PSG Financial Services)

It looks like MTN Nigeria is the source of Optasia’s headache (JSE: MTN | JSE: OPA)

There’s no indication of when this issue will be resolved

Earlier this week, Optasia warned the market that an unnamed customer in Nigeria had suspended airtime and data credit advance services. The very next day, MTN announced to the market that MTN Nigeria had executed a similar suspension.

I’m happy to assume that MTN Nigeria is the customer that Optasia was talking about here.

This relates to new compliance and licensing requirements that came into effect on 12th April. The problem is that there doesn’t seem to be much urgency from MTN to sort it out, as customers have other ways to buy airtime and data. Presumably this has some impact on MTN, otherwise Optasia wouldn’t have a business at all.

If this isn’t resolved quickly, then Optasia will start to look like a business without a moat. If the service isn’t in place, Optasia needs the telcos to treat it as mission critical to get it back online.

How do you feel about the latest developments?

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Optasia's wobbly

Has this issue affected your opinion on Optasia?


Ninety One’s assets have jumped – but there’s a big reason why (JSE: N91 | JSE: NY1)

Don’t forget the deal with Sanlam (JSE: SLM) that was executed recently

Ninety One has released its assets under management for the fourth quarter of FY26. In other words, they’ve given the market the year-end number as at March 2026.

The critical underlying nuance is that the transaction with Sanlam Investment Management’s active asset management business in South Africa closed on 1 February 2026. This introduced £16.5 billion in new assets. For context, the assets under management as at December 2025 stood at £159.8 billion.

The March 2026 number is £171.8 billion. If we strip out the Sanlam deal, it means that assets actually fell by £4.5 billion during the quarter. Given the broader geopolitical environment and the energy shock, that’s not a terrible outcome.


Orion Minerals is in the final stages of closing the Glencore funding (JSE: ORN | JSE: GLN)

They will then get the hammer down on developing the Prieska mine

Orion Minerals has released an investor presentation that tells the story of the company’s transition to an execution phase. This is of course the news that all junior mining investors dream of.

The purpose of the presentation is to give investors an overview of the business and the current status. Orion has two important projects in the Northern Cape: the Okiep Copper Project near Springbok, and the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine (PCZM) near Prieska. To give you an idea of how remote these areas are, the town that sits almost perfectly in the middle of this 450km stretch between the two assets is the bustling metropolis of Pofadder!

PCZM is the priority project, with funding from Glencore (JSE: GLN) in the process of achieving final conditions precedent. Financial close is expected in Q2 2026 and first production is expected in Q2 2027. The uppers will start producing first, with the deeps expected to take until 2030 to be commissioned. The uppers will require investment of $40 million and the deeps will need $210 million.

At Okiep, production is expected in mid-2028.

There are other exploration assets as well, but neither of them will be coming into production anytime soon.

If you’re keen to dig into the details, you’ll find the presentation here.


Exceptional growth on display at PSG Financial Services (JSE: KST)

Return on Equity (ROE) is now in the 30s

The latest numbers from PSG Financial Services are a wonderful example of what it looks like when a strategy really works.

For the year ended February 2026, the company increased assets under management by 20% and grew gross written premium by 5%. If you exclude the disposal of a business in Namibia, gross written premium was actually up 7%.

Although the increase in costs reflects a company in a growth phase (fixed remuneration up 8.1% and technology spend up 8.6%), the revenue growth is more than good enough to make up for it.

Recurring HEPS jumped by a beautiful 34% to 135 cents. This puts the company on a Price/Earnings multiple of 21x.

Only the best local companies tend to trade above the 20x threshold, but PSG Financial Services makes a strong case to be there. In addition to the excellent growth in earnings, ROE has jumped from 26.6% to 31.7%. For context, that’s double what some of the local banks are generating!

If you dig into the divisions, you’ll find good news across the board. PSG Wealth, the largest division with headline earnings of R950 million, was up 25%. PSG Asset Management had an extraordinary year, up 59% to R473 million. PSG Insure is the smallest segment and also the “slowest” growing, but a 22% increase to R259 million definitely isn’t shabby.

Here’s another metric worth considering: recurring HEPS excluding performance fees. At 122.5 cents, this isn’t far off the 135 cents that includes performance fees. This gives further support to the valuation.

The total dividend per share of 65 cents seems like a modest payout ratio in this context. The group has been retaining plenty of comfortable, which is exactly why the group recently received its fifth credit rating upgrade in the past decade. They also repurchased shares worth R296.9 million in the past year.

The company is one of the few local examples of what can genuinely be described as a “fortress balance sheet” – and the 56% increase in the share price in the past year reflects this.


Nibbles:

  • Raubex (JSE: RBX) announced that the strategic evaluation of Bauba Resources is ongoing. The assessment is whether to sell all or part of the stake, or to just do nothing and leave it alone. It’s an odd strategic fit in the group, so my view is that they would be better off getting out of it at a decent price. Easier said than done, of course. Right now, there’s no guarantee of a deal taking place, hence the need for a renewed cautionary announcement.
  • Efforts to save Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON) continue, with the provisional liquidation being adjourned to mid-June 2026. The post-commencement facility (the type of debt that keeps a company alive in business rescue) with the IDC has also been extended to June. Notably, the facility has been expanded from R2.3 billion to R2.5 billion, so money is being thrown at efforts to keep this thing alive. Is Tongaat simply too big to fail in the SA economy?
  • Oando (JSE: OAO) continues to build a diversified, vertically integrated energy business. The latest deal is for a 60 MW independent power plant in Bayelsa State, with Oando involved in a joint venture that will supply gas to the plant.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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Hulamin Containers (Hulamin) has disposed of its operational assets, including presses and moulds, to Wyda Packaging, the South African operation of Brazilian Wyda Embalagens. The operation supplies rigid aluminium foil containers used in catering, baking and household applications. Financial details were undisclosed.

Sustent Holdings, the special purpose vehicle formed by Mergence Investment Managers and Creation Capital, has increased the offer it made to Mahube Infrastructure minority shareholders in December 2025. The offer has been increased to R6.00 from R5.50 per share, and the revised consideration will not be reduced by any normal dividends to be paid by the company. The scheme meeting has accordingly been delayed to 11 May 2026 and should the scheme be approved by shareholders, the company’s listing will be terminated on 14 July 2026.

Shell plc is in negotiations with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to sell its South African fuel station network. Should the parties reach agreement, acquiring Shell’s 600 retail fuel outlets will give ADNOC c.10% of the local market. Market talk values the deal at roughly US$1 billion (R16,3 billion) with an agreement possibly in place by end-June 2026.

Refiant AI has raised US$5 million seed funding in a round led by California-based climate technology investor VoLo Earth Ventures. The South African startup builds tools that compress and restructure AI models to make them more efficient, lowering the computational requirements of AI systems while maintaining performance and allowing them to run on smaller devices or local infrastructure. The funding will be used to scale the team at Refiant AI, to build out a platform and to accelerate enterprise partnerships.

South African medtech company AI Diagnostics has raised R85 million in a pre-Series A funding round to accelerate deployment of its AI-powered Ostium digital stethoscope – which enables early tuberculosis screening without specialist equipment or infrastructure. The round was led by The Steele Foundation for Hope, with participation from the iFSP Group and the Global Innovation Fund. Previous rounds included Africa Health Ventures and Savant.

iVeri Payment Technologies, the creator of technology for banks and businesses which facilitates multiple-channel transaction acceptance, has been acquired by entrepreneur Jonathan Smit, the founder of Payfast. iVeri assists customers to create a profitable and sustainable business by enabling them to implement the right transactional channels for their market environment. Financial details were undisclosed.

End-to-end data management solutions and services provider Data Management Professionals South Africa (DMPSA) has acquired a stake in local software development specialist Plastic Duck Armada (PDA). PDA is a digital and graphic design, web development and online platform creation company. The acquisition will bolster DMPSA’s ability to deliver automated, insight-led data management at scale. Financial details were not disclosed.

Lions Bay Resources (LBR), in which AIM-listed Metals One has a 30% stake following the exercise of its right to secure the equity stake via the conversion of US$1.8 million of convertible loan notes, has submitted two revised offers to the business rescue practitioners overseeing Vantage Goldfields. These include a R279 million offer for the Barbrook Mines assets in Mpumalanga, which host a 2.1 million ounce gold resource, and a nominal R1 offer for the gold mining company Makonjwaan Imperial Mining, which includes the Lily mine, in Mpumalanga, and associated deposits totalling 2.3 million ounces. The offers remain subject to creditor approval and LBR securing a minimum of $7 million in additional funding.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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Freestone Property Investments, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Emira Property Fund, has acquired 53,698,356 ordinary shares in Octodec Investments, representing a 20.17% stake. The shareholding was acquired from various asset managers for an aggregate purchase consideration of R891,773,046. Following this Emira has offered to acquire a further 39,204,583 Octodec shares for a cash consideration of R16.75 per share. If accepted in full, Emira’s shareholding will increase to 34.9% – below the 35% threshold for a mandatory offer to be made to shareholders. The offer closes on 8 May 2026.

BHP has repurchased 3,496,808 shares in terms of its dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) across the three jurisdictions with the allocation price being A$50.14, £25.87 and R604.00.

Shareholders holding 81.37% of NEPI Rockcastle’s issued equity elected the option to receive a capital repayment in terms of the dividend of 27.88 euro cents per share for the six months ended December 2025.

AttBid, a vehicle representing Atterbury Property Fund (APF), I Faan and I Dirk, which made an offer to RMH shareholders in February 2026, acquired a further 5,134,624 shares in on-market transactions this week. Following this, AttBid and APF hold 32.77% and 10.20% respectively, resulting in an aggregate of c.42.97% of the RMH shares in issue. The offer closes on 29 May 2026.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Ninety One plc announced that it has extended the repurchase programme from 31 March 2026 to 3 June 2026. The shares will be purchased on the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 528,444 ordinary shares at an average price 217 pence for an aggregate £1,14 million.

GreenCoat Renewables has implemented a share buyback programme totalling €100 million over 12 months with a first tranche amounting to €25 million beginning on 5 March 2026 – representing 13% of the issued share capital. This week 2,427,222 shares were repurchased for and aggregate €1,79 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 6 – 10 April 2026, the group repurchased 1,017,148 shares for €64,4 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. This week the company repurchased a further 800,786 shares at an average price of £43.10 per share for an aggregate £34,5 million.

During the period 7 – 10 April 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 1,843,035 Prosus shares for an aggregate €76,8 million and Naspers, a further 661,907 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R597,65 million.

Two companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Tongaat Hulett and Raubex.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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JNC Uniik Limited Company (Uniik Foods), a Ghanaian food processing company specialising in the manufacturing of shelf-stable African food products for local and export markets, has completed an undisclosed investment from Mirepa Investment Advisors through its SME private equity fund, Mirepa Capital SME Fund I. The funding will support the acquisition of modern automated processing equipment to scale up production capacity, investment in working capital to strengthen supply chain operations, and the expansion of marketing and distribution capacity across key diaspora markets.

Canadian-listed gold exploration company, Ongwe Minerals, has completed all the requirements for a dual-listing on the Namibia Securities Exchange, and started trading on 15 April 2026. The Company is currently advancing three promising projects within the emerging Northwest Damara gold belt, with a primary emphasis on the Omatjete and Khorixas Gold Projects.

Heineken has sold its shareholding in Brasseries, Limonaderies et Malteries S.A. (Bralima), its operating company in the Democratic Republic of Congo to ELNA Holdings, a Mauritius-based company. Financial terms were not disclosed. The international brewer will retain ownership of its global and regional brands and will continue to be present in the DRC through long-term trademark licensing agreements. These agreements will ensure the continued brewing, marketing and distribution of Heineken’s brands in the market, including Heineken®, Primus®, Turbo King®, Legend® and Mützig®, which remain central to the DRC beer market.

PowerLabs, a Nigerian energy and climate-tech startup, has raised a pre-seed round led by Breega, with participation from Catalyst Fund, Mercy Corps Ventures, and Kaleo Ventures, to scale its AI-enabled energy orchestration platform, Pai Enterprise. The funding will accelerate deployment of the platform across commercial and industrial users in Nigeria and support expansion into West Africa. The size of the round was not disclosed.

Innoflex Group, a leading Moroccan industrial group specialising in polyurethane foam manufacturing and bedding has raised MAD 200 million (US$22 million) in a minority capital raise led by CDG Invest Growth through its CapMezzanine V fund, alongside several other investors.

Cairo-based fintech startup INVIA has raised US$1,2 million from angel investors and strategic supporters. The platform automates core financial functions, from bookkeeping and cash flow tracking to inventory and manufacturing management. It also allows users to interact through simple inputs like text, voice notes, or uploaded invoices. The new funding will be used to accelerate product development, expand engineering and data capabilities, and scale customer acquisition across Egypt.

Sintana Energy, a Canadian oil and gas exploration company that acquires and develops high-impact, early-stage exploration projects in Africa and South America, has announced that it has engaged IJG Securities as its sponsor and corporate advisor and initiated discussions with the Namibia Securities Exchange with a view to being admitted for trading on Namibia’s national exchange. Sintana is currently listed on the TSX-V in Canada, on the LSE-AIM in the UK and in the U.S. on the OTCQX.

Falcon Aerospace (trading as VivaJets), a Nigerian business aviation platform, has closed a US$15 million credit facility backed by TLG Capital, Premium Trust Bank, and Access Bank UK. Structured by TLG Capital as a bespoke facility Nigerian and UK banking partners, the transaction is among the largest SME-focused aviation financings ever completed in Côte d’Ivoire. It funds the establishment of an Abidjan operations hub, the development of in-country aviation maintenance infrastructure, and the expansion of corporate connectivity across a Francophone West African market that has long been underserved by conventional aviation finance.

bp has announced the acquisition of a 60% interest in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia from Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas as part of its strategy to grow its upstream portfolio. Subject to Namibian government approvals, bp will be the operator of three blocks – PEL97, PEL99 and PEL100 – offshore Namibia in the Walvis Basin, with Eco Atlantic remaining a partner, along with Namibia’s national oil company NAMCOR.

Expanding director accountability in South African company law

Insights from Vantage and Langeni

Two recent High Court decisions – Vantage Mezzanine Fund II Partnership v Hopeson, and Langeni v South African Women in Mining Association – have added valuable dimension to the legal landscape surrounding directors’ duties, removal procedures and stakeholder remedies under South African company law. Although arising from different contexts, these judgments reflect an evolving judicial approach to corporate governance under the Companies Act 71 of 2008 (“the Act”), one that seeks to strike a balance between procedural discipline, equitable oversight, and stakeholder access to justice.

In Vantage Mezzanine, the applicants (creditors who had advanced R200m to Somnipoint (Pty) Ltd) sought to have several of the company’s directors declared delinquent under section 162(5) of the Act. Their standing was challenged on the basis that s162(2) grants locus standi only to a closed list of actors, namely shareholders, directors, company secretaries, prescribed officers, trade unions, and the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission.

Faced with this limitation, the applicants invoked s157(1)(d), which allows a court to confer standing on any person acting “in the public interest”. The court held that, in appropriate circumstances, creditors may fall within this category. It found that where director misconduct is serious – such as dishonesty, wilful breach of trust or gross negligence – and impacts not only the financial interest of a single creditor but the company’s reputation or solvency more broadly, the public interest threshold may be satisfied.

This judgment is important because it affirms that the statutory list in s162(2) is not exhaustive. While standing is not granted to creditors by default, the court’s application of s157(1)(d) introduces a mechanism by which creditors, acting beyond mere debt recovery, may seek corporate accountability in appropriate cases.

The reasoning reflects a purposive reading of the Act: one that recognises that a company’s governance failures may have ripple effects far beyond shareholders, and that creditor activism may serve to uphold standards of fiduciary responsibility where directors fall short.

In Langeni, the applicants (two directors of a non-profit company) challenged their removal by the board. The removal was ostensibly grounded on allegations of misconduct, but the applicants contended that the decision was procedurally and substantively flawed. The court agreed.

S71(1) of the Act provides that a company’s board may remove a fellow director by resolution, but only on certain, more serious grounds, and where the director has been given notice and a fair opportunity to respond to allegations. In this case, the respondents failed to produce any evidence supporting the allegations, nor did they demonstrate compliance with the procedural framework set out in s71(2) and (5).

The judgment emphasises that removal of directors, regardless of the company’s internal politics, must conform to both the substantive and procedural safeguards prescribed by the Act. And in exercising its powers under s71, a board must still comply with the usual duties to act in the best interests of the company and for a proper purpose. The court held that the absence of meaningful evidence of misconduct, coupled with the board’s failure to follow due process, rendered the removal invalid.

Notably, the court took a practical view on technical procedural defects under s71(5), which requires that the affected director approach the court within 20 business days to have a decision of removal by a board reviewed. Although this requirement was not met, the court held that in the exercise of its discretion, it is not in the interest of justice not to entertain the merits of the application simply because a filing was out of time. The court further held that the litigation that the applicants pursued had been initiated prior to the removal.

While Vantage and Langeni address distinct sections of the Act, their underlying principles are remarkably complementary. Both judgments reinforce that directors’ power must be exercised within a well-defined legal framework, and that the Act does not tolerate either reckless governance or procedurally deficient discipline.

In Vantage, the court broadened access to enforcement mechanisms, allowing creditors to pursue remedies that, until now, were thought to be the preserve of company insiders. This suggests that the courts may be moving toward a model of corporate governance that is more inclusive and stakeholder-responsive, particularly in the context of public interest litigation.

In Langeni, the court reaffirmed the procedural rigor required in board decision-making, particularly where the removal of a director is concerned. Boards must comply strictly with the procedural roadmap set out in s 71 and cannot circumvent those protections, even where removal is practically expedient.

Together, these cases demonstrate the court’s willingness to apply the Act purposively. Whether in interpreting standing provisions or procedural mandates, the judiciary is increasingly focused on fairness, substance, and the protection of institutional integrity.

For company boards, these judgments offer a cautionary tale. Directors may not be removed simply by internal consensus or informal decisions; the prescribed process must be followed in full. Failure to do so not only risks judicial reversal, but can damage the company’s credibility, especially in nonprofit or public-facing entities.

For creditors and external stakeholders, Vantage creates a limited but meaningful opening to seek remedies where director misconduct is serious and affects the public interest. Courts will not entertain applications brought purely to recover debt, but they will respond to allegations of governance failure that threaten the broader interests of the company and its stakeholders.

Critically, these cases challenge companies to recalibrate their internal governance. Legal advisors should ensure that procedures are not merely codified but actually observed, and that any contemplated removal of a director is undertaken with a strong evidentiary basis and adherence to fair process.

In conclusion, Vantage and Langeni reflect a maturing jurisprudence that affirms both the rule of law and the evolving expectations of modern corporate governance. Courts are increasingly prepared to hold directors accountable, not just for what they do, but for how they do it. Stakeholders, whether inside or outside the company, are not powerless, and the judiciary has signalled a willingness to engage constructively with those who seek to uphold the integrity of directorial office.

As South African company law continues to evolve, these decisions serve as critical markers in the ongoing conversation about governance, transparency, and the rightful exercise of corporate power.

At the time of drafting, Tevin Ramalu was an Associate; Darian Chetty is a Candidate Legal Practitioner. Supervised by Nada Lourens, a Director in the Corporate Department | DLA Piper Advisory Services

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

UNLOCK THE STOCK: Growthpoint Properties

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.

We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us.

In the 68th edition of Unlock the Stock, Growthpoint Properties returned to the platform to talk about the recent numbers and the strategic outlook for the business.

I hosted this event alongside Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

Watch the recording here:

Ghost Bites (British American Tobacco | Mahube Infrastructure | Optasia | Southern Palladium)

British American Tobacco gives an updated view on performance (JSE: BTI)

The Chair’s address at the AGM flags a potentially disappointing year ahead

If you are seeking love in this world, then be sure to find someone who looks at you the way ESG consultants look at British American Tobacco. The company dedicates incredible resources and creativity to coming up with fancy terms to make it sound like they are doing good things in the world.

In reality, it’s a pretty simple investment thesis: people buy the stock because the underlying consumers are addicted to the products. As “sticky customers” go, these ones are stickier than a toddler at a birthday party.

Of course, in an effort to stay on the right side of regulators and other stakeholders, the company is pushing hard to convince people to transition to arguably less harmful products. Not all regulators are in favour of this, with the company having to lobby in markets like Australia and Brazil.

At the AGM, the Chair’s update gives plenty of underlying details around the research, the products and the initiatives to transition customers. There’s also information around the financial outlook, so I’ll focus there instead.

The mid-term growth algorithm at British American Tobacco looks like this: 3% – 5% revenue growth, 4% – 6% adjusted profit from operations growth, 5% – 8% adjusted diluted EPS growth. This is a single-digit sport, measured in hard currency.

Due to issues in the APMEA region and the investment required in new products, they expect to be at the lower end of the guided ranges in FY26. They’ve also flagged that the first half won’t be great, with “profit delivery to remain second-half weighted” based on the timing of investment initiatives and cost saving programmes.

They’ve also indicated a forex headwind of 2% – 3% on adjusted diluted EPS.

Although medium-term guidance is unchanged, it sounds like 2026 is going to be a disappointment for investors – particularly the interim results. With the share price up 18% over 12 months, it’s going to be interesting to see where it goes over the remainder of 2026.

What are your views on this stock?

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Do you light it up with British American Tobacco?

What are your views on this stock?


A last-minute change to the Mahube Infrastructure scheme (JSE: MHB)

Presumably the scheme was on track to fail, as the price has now been raised

Here’s an unusual one for you!

Mahube Infrastructure released a circular back in March that set out a scheme of arrangement at R5.50 per share. The offeror is Sustent Holdings.

Mahube had spent much of 2025 languishing below R4.00 per share, with the share price moving into the higher range based on cautionary announcements and then the firm deal.

The pricing of R5.50 reflected a meaty premium to the price before this deal became a reality, but it was still below the fair value range of R6.42 to R6.72 put forward by the independent expert. This means it was assessed to be “unfair but reasonable” to Mahube shareholders.

Unfair deals still regularly go through on the JSE, but this one is more nuanced.

The meeting that was scheduled for 15 April was postponed to 11 May. The price was increased from R5.50 per share to R6.00 per share. There are also no adjustments being made to the price anymore for dividends.

You won’t see stuff like this every day. Major shareholders are presumably digging in their heels and pushing for a price that is closer to the fair value range.


Optasia has suffered a setback in Nigeria (JSE: OPA)

This will hopefully be rectified quickly

As a reminder of the risks of operating in frontier markets, Optasia announced that the provision of airtime credit services in partnership with a mobile network operator in Nigeria has been suspended.

This appears to be a step taken by the operator in connection with the implementation of recent regulations.

What does this actually mean for Optasia?

Well, they “don’t expect this matter to have a material impact on its financial position” despite airtime credit services in Nigeria being 14% of Optasia group revenue in FY25.

How is it possible for that number to not be material?

Firstly, if they have multiple partners in Nigeria, then that builds in some diversification. Secondly, if this is only a temporary issue that can be resolved quickly, then the percentage impact will be much smaller than the annual contribution to revenue would suggest.

Those are two very big “ifs”.


More drilling results from Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL)

They are making progress on their Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)

Southern Palladium has released results of metallurgical test work from the Bengwenyama PGM project. This is where things become very technical, with only geologists and mining engineers having any idea what’s going on here!

I don’t know what a coarser grind spiral feed is, but I’m happy that using this approach will lead to chromite concentrate recoveries of 65% instead of the 30% assumed in the Optimised Pre-Feasibility Study.

It’s also nice to see that Dense Media Separation circuits will be useful. Frankly, that sounds like a spam filter I wish I could add to my social media feed. There’s a lot of dense media out there.

These results are being incorporated into the work being done for the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) on plant design and metrics.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CFO and company secretary of Sun International (JSE: SUI) sold shares worth over R4.8 million in total. Although a portion of this was related to tax, the majority of it was not.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) announced that Bambanani Family Group, in which they have a 31% direct interest, lost over R6 million for the year ended February 2026. There were grand plans here around a children’s entertainment concept, but things just haven’t worked out at all. The writing has been on the wall for a while, as financial performance has been poor in recent years. Bambanani Melville will be closed and Bambanani Bedfordview will continue with a reduced staff compliment. Bamba’s Kitchen will temporarily move to Melville while that property is in the process of being sold. Bambanani at Home will launch as a D2C offering with a recurring family food system, which sounds like a very hard way to make money. It’s always very sad when small businesses don’t make it.
  • In an example of a highly depressing livestream, Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON) shared a link on SENS for those who want to watch the provisional liquidation application play out in the Durban High Court at 9:30am on Thursday morning. Think I’ll stick to Netflix, personally.

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep125 | Capital meets reform – is South Africa investable again?

Listen to the podcast here:

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South Africa’s reform momentum is becoming more visible, but so are the constraints that could stall it.

In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Rudi Dicks, Head of the Project Management Office in the Presidency; Martin Meyer, Head of Energy and Infrastructure Finance at Investec and Ayan Ghosh, Head of Cross-Asset Investment Strategy at Investec, to unpack the reality behind the narrative.

From energy gains to persistent bottlenecks in logistics and municipalities, the discussion examines whether progress is enough to sustain investor confidence and what still needs to shift for capital to follow.

Please scroll down for the transcript if you wish to read instead of listen.

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Transcript:

No Ordinary Wednesday Ep 125 – Capital meets reform: Is South Africa investable again?

[00:00:00] Jeremy: South Africa’s economic reform story is no longer about intent, it’s about delivery.

This time last year, government committed over one trillion Rand to public infrastructure investment, the largest allocation of its kind in South Africa’s history.

The focus is on water, energy, freight logistics and ports, because these sectors form the bedrock of the economy and determine whether goods move, industries operate and investment flows.

For investors, three anchors matter most: sustained monetary discipline, fiscal consolidation, and reforms implementation.

This is No Ordinary Wednesday, our in-depth look at what’s driving markets, shaping the economy and changing the game. I’m Jeremy Maggs. In this episode we look at how far South Africa is on its reform journey.

The sentiment at Investec’s second SA Economic Reforms Conference was cautiously optimistic with key stakeholders from government, business, and civil society acknowledging infrastructure decline has been arrested and stabilisation achieved.

But the far harder phase, execution at scale, now begins. And the country’s reform ride is made bumpier by an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are raising the risk of renewed inflation.

That matters for South Africa because it directly affects capital flows, interest rates, and the cost of funding infrastructure.

To discuss what progress has been made, where bottlenecks remain, and what it will take to unlock large-scale private investment, I’m joined by:

Rudi Dicks, Head of the Project Management Office in the Presidency

Martin Meyer, Head of Energy and Infrastructure Finance at Investec

And Ayan Ghosh, Head of Cross-Asset Investment Strategy at Investec

So Ayan, I’m going to start with you and are we seeing, in your opinion, a genuine shift in investor sentiment towards South Africa, or do you think this is still cautious optimism given this very volatile and tricky global backdrop?

[00:02:10]

Jeremy: So Ayan, I’m going to start with you and are we seeing, in your opinion, a genuine shift in investor sentiment towards South Africa, or do you think this is still cautious optimism given this very volatile and tricky global backdrop?

Ayan: Thanks Jeremy for inviting me to the conversation. As you mentioned, I think this is very much a cautious optimism at this point. What is very interesting to us is when you look at the foreign equity ownership for South Africa that’ has increased to 32.7% in February 2026. That’s the prestart of the war from 26.6% in January 2025.

That reflects more than a 20% increase and possibly the best uplift in the past decade. In terms of foreign investor interest in SA, we also did a bit of work, which shows a sustained uplift in South Africa’s gross fixed capital formation to 4%, alongside a step-up in South Africa’s real GDP to 2.5. That would represent a meaningful inflection point in SA’s growth cycle and earnings visibility.

And that’s possibly the catalyst for renewed foreign investor interest in South Africa. Critically achieving this is contingent on credible and sustained reforms implementation. I hope that answers your question.

[00:03:15] Jeremy: It does indeed. Rudi, let me bring you into the conversation. At Investec’s SA Economics Reform Conference, you describe reform as, and I quote, “uneven and noisy but tangible.” What are the clearest signs in your opinion then, Rudi, that reform is starting to take hold?

Rudi: Well, I think probably building on what Ayan is saying, certainly the sort of sentiment, the sort of confidence that is there, the ability for investors to believe in us and that the sort of empty promises that have been made and never follow through are actually done, and you could pick that up in the reform programs. Energy for instance., a lot of work that has been done to unlock firstly in load shedding. Secondly, creating a competitive market and setting the rules for that competitive market.

What we know, for example, is that the reforms that we’ve introduced in that sector potentially has over R400 billion worth of investment in renewable energy or alternative energy outside of Eskom generation, similar in ports and rail, I think for us to be able to stitch up the Durban Container terminal with a private sector partner, hopefully we see results quicker than what we’ve seen previously.

You know, with that private sector partner improving the performance of that port, but certainly the point around third-party operators and private sector operators on the rail network. Our intention to go to market around with a number of other private sector deals within the rail and ports space. This is going to be quite an important part of what we are doing.

And I think these are the sort of confidence measures that are important. Those are the real things that show that the reform program can work and that we are wanting to attract private investment. Important thing about this is getting to sectors of the economy that we haven’t really seen private sector investment there, where there’s been monopolies, you know, incumbents like Eskom, incumbents like Transnet.

We’ve got to open up that space. We’ve got to allow for private investment and that’s what’s going to do the trick for us, in getting the sort of confidence and getting investment going.

[00:05:11 Jeremy: So Martin, energy is arguably the most advanced reform area. How would you describe where we are currently from an energy reform perspective?

And I guess most people would want to know whether that word load shedding is going to darken our doors again, we hope not.

Martin: Jeremy, when we talk reform, I can safely say that the energy sector has been leaps ahead of all the other infrastructure reforms in the country. We haven’t seen load shedding in almost a year, and Eskom can be sitting on a reserve energy margin of in excess of 5 gigawatts.

I believe at the moment we’ve seen and continue to see significant investment from the private sector with over 10 gigs of renewable energy generation already contracted for. This is a very, very large investment into the sector. We’re still seeing a number of renewable energy projects coming to market, but the pace has slowed considerably.

What we are seeing is a big market shift from the predominantly government-led projects of five or so years ago to market where the private sector and specifically energy traders, are the biggest buyers of renewable power from new projects.

We are now seeing a situation where new projects are being led by the private sector first and bilaterally, and subsequently, we’re seeing the energy traders buying majority of the power that’s coming out of these projects. This is on the back of government shift from the single buyer model to a multi-buyer multi seller model.

This began with sort of removing the licensing threshold for private generation some four to five years ago, and will further evolve as trading rules in the trading market take shape. The emerging trader market is particularly exciting as this should drive further reforms. As the market moves to competitive wholesale traded market, we anticipate first stages of the wholesale traded market to kick off later this year, and it’s very, very encouraging to see the regulatory framework required for our energy market taking shape. In addition, we’re seeing significant amounts of battery energy storage being built, which enables efficient storage of excess power. So we are now able to store the excess energy generator during daylight hours and release it into the grid when it’s most needed during peak usage periods. This doesn’t necessarily mean

load sheddings over, but the energy market has come a long way since the beginning of load shedding, and we should be nowhere near the level of load shedding we saw two to three years ago.

[00:07:29] Jeremy: So let me pick you up on two things. One is new projects, but risk associated with that. So we’ve got something in the region of. 2 trillion rand in planned generation. A lot of talk about major grid expansion. Surely there is a danger that transmission now becomes a key bottleneck.

 Martin: Jeremy transmission is the biggest single issue in rolling out renewable energy at scale. As I mentioned earlier, we’ve seen a slowdown in the pace of renewable energy projects coming to market, which is largely due to various conditions that need to be met before projects are able to connect to the grid.

These conditions are largely related to the inefficiency of the grid as it stands today and the immediate need for grid strengthening and expansion. In addition, there’s no grid capacity in the North-Western Cape. These are the best parts of the country for renewable energy, and there is a significant number of projects waiting for new lines in order to evacuate power.

That said, Eskom has announced plans to roll out in excess of 14,000 kilometers of transmission lines over the next few years. That requires up to R450 billion with new capital to successfully get it right. The first phase for just over a thousand kilometers is already in the market, and we’ve seen a very good appetite to invest in this program, with many international and local players bid for the projects.

The program does seem to be slightly delayed, and I suspect this is due to a delay in getting the credit enhancement required for the projects to be finalised. The World Bank, together with the National Treasury, is putting together a guarantee product, which will negate the need for the National Treasury to stand behind Eskom’s obligations in each of these projects.

The DOE integrated resource plan prioritizes transitioning from coal to renewables and requires in excess of 18 gigawatts of new renewable energy power by 2030. This can only be achieved if we see more urgency in rolling out the required grid strengthening and expansion. Should we see delays in rolling out this transmission, we are going to see huge bottlenecks in meeting our key objectives.

[00:09:19] Jeremy: Ayan and Rudi, I’m coming to you in just a moment, but Martin, very quickly, the focus is also going to be a shift towards how we bring electricity inflation down over the next couple of years. Are you confident that the current reform path that you and Rudi referred to can actually achieve this?

Martin: So Jeremy, there are two factors that need to be considered here.

Do you have the integrated resource plan or RRP as it’s commonly known, and the South African wholesale energy market. The RRP presents a plan to transition away from coal in the most economical way possible, while still obviously being cognisant of the fact that sustainability and social effects need to be taken into account.

As mentioned earlier, there’s a large requirement for renewable energy and RRP with renewable power being comparatively cheap at the moment. In addition, there’s a requirement for gas-fired power, which is more expensive, but is necessary for balancing the power system as it can be ramped up quickly to deal with sudden shifts in demand.

Gas is also cleaner than coal and diesel, so it has a transitional angle to it. We must ever be careful not to overbuild and rather use gas to transition to a renewable-dominant power system. Then there’s always the controversial subject of nuclear power. Nuclear power is part of the RRP and is the cheapest form of base load, given the life of the asset, which often spans over 60 years. However, it does come at a high upfront cost and plenty of regulatory hurdles.

We see this as part of a 10 to 15-year plan if feasible at all. But more importantly, and linking it to the new build of cost-effective power, SAWEM is creating a competitively traded multi-buyer, multi-seller energy market, which will better reflect efficient market pricing. This results in a pricing system, that better reflects the true cost of generation. This should therefore result in cheaper generation being dispatched first and then slowly move up the generation cost curve to a more expensive power ss demand grows. As the power is traded in the open market, simple market economics will drive pricing down, and we should see a material decrease in energy inflation in the medium to long term as a result of this implementation. We are all very excited to see how this comes to fruition.

[00:11:18] Jeremy: So Ayan, let’s talk a little bit about consequences if we can.

If South Africa’s energy supply is reliable and pricing for industrial users comes down, obviously our mining sector would be well positioned to take advantage of increasing demand, I guess, for critical minerals. Could you explain the significance of this opportunity to me?

Ayan: Thanks Jeremy. And as Martin mentioned, I think energy reforms in South Africa is no longer about ensuring the security of supply.

It is increasingly central to anchoring the next phase of industrialisation. South Africa has some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals as we know, and it’s tied to the energy transition, including PGMs, manganese, vanadium, creme, titanium, and rare earths. When you look at some of these World Bank estimates, that suggests that demand for these key energy transition minerals could rise by four to six times from current levels by 2040 or 2050.

With some metals like lithium and cobalt, seeing even steeper increases. In that backdrop, reliable and competitively priced electricity changes the economics of mining. Lower predictable tariffs, improve margins at mines and make brownfield expansions more financeable. I think South Africa’s mineral endowment together with some of this large-scale grid investment that Martin’s talking about, positions South Africa very well to capture this critical minerals upcycle over the next two decades.

[00:12:51] Continuity : We’ll continue with this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday in just a moment, but first a word from our sponsors. Investec’s Energy and Infrastructure team supports infrastructure projects across Sub-Saharan Africa.

The team provides financing solutions and specialist financial services to businesses, governments, and public-private partnerships, bringing together financial and technical expertise across energy, transport, water, and social infrastructure. Find out more in the podcast notes or search for Investec energy and infrastructure.

[00:13:25] Jeremy: Alright, let’s move to freight logistics now, as I think it is the very heart of our country’s growth story, really at the Economic Reforms conference, Juanita Maree, Chief Executive of the Southern African Association of Freight Forwarders, said 65% of South Africa’s GDP is exposed to trade. Given the importance of the performance of ports, rail and corridors to South Africa’s macroeconomic success. Maybe explain to us the mixed bag of results on this reform roadmap. Maybe we can start with the good and then sort of move down the scale if we can.

Rudi: I mean, the problem is that, let’s be frank, let’s talk about the most important part.

So if you’re starting from pit to port, you’ve got to remove those goods from the pit, right? And that network is not up to standard. It’s been degraded. There’s been a lack of CapEx investment in the freight rail network, and that’s for a whole series of different reasons that we can discuss Jeremy.

But the fact of the matter is that we’ve got to bring that up to standard. Bringing that up to standard means that you’re able to open up the network transit freight rail. Third-party operators are able to ensure that they can compete with one another and move goods. That also makes costs much more competitive because, as it is a large chunk, 70% of our volumes that are, for example, moving between the most congested route is between city deep and Durban.

We’ve got to take a lot of those goods, containerised goods, and put them onto the rail. So circular I think there’s an important incentive to be able to reduce that cost for us to be able to do that. Then, then of course. There’s the importance of ensuring that being reduced competition within the port space.

Again, Durban Container Port Terminal, for example, is still the largest in Africa, and therefore you’ve got to invest significantly in infrastructure, in technology, you know, shipped to shore cranes, rubber tire gantries. They’ve got to be more efficient.

You’ve got old technology that’s there, you’ve got old cranes that are there. Those are going to be important things that I think about TFR and the industry is looking at. The challenge that we’ve got to do is that all our indicators are, as you say, let’s move on to the bad parts, which are all terrible, you know, where do we raise the money from to be able to ensure that we can invest in both rail and ports?

And that’s where the private sector comes in. That’s why we’ve got to think very differently. Traditionally, what we would’ve done. Go out to the market, borrow money, Martin and Ian would convince the debt component of the firms and buy up the bonds. We got to think about how we do this very differently with private sector operators where we potentially can concession it, think about how they can operate and run a more efficient port or rail corridor, for instance.

And that’s the important part of how I think the reform master can be moving in that direction. We issued, for example, a request for information during the course of last year on three key corridors, the manganese iron core, the Natcore, and then of course the coal corridor. And there’s been a significant amount of interest from both local and international operators in that space.

And certainly what we’ve got to do is take the next logical stack and actually go to market. Pretty much the same thing that you’ve done for .This is all the same stuff that you’ve got to do, and I think that’s going to be an important part for us to be able to do.

Geographically, we are the worst possible place, right? But now, given the sort of geopolitics, it depends on what happens. Many ships would have to pass our shore. We’ve got to find a mechanism of making a genuine regional hub in South Africa. And that potential is there. And for us to be able to, you know, secure some of those shipping routes that come past our shore, but never dock here.

[00:16:49] Jeremy: So encouraging Ayan but not all good news. So Rudi really back to you, national government and or central government, what is it doing to hasten the speed of reform and maybe make up for South Africa being a bit of a laggard on the continent for port and rail concessions?

Are you moving at a swift enough past, do you think?

Rudi: I suppose that many in the private sector would critique us for not moving fast enough. But to be frank, I think there are complexities in some of these deals. We have not done them ever before and I think we’ve got to get them right. They’re quite also highly competitive.

There are many interested parties who want to do this. Let me just give you one example. The Durban container terminal two, we’d spent an amount of time getting it to market, getting the RP correct, and it was contested in court and that put us out by another two more years. Eventually, of course, I think that since the prevailing and during the latter part of last year, the applicant who had contested this had agreed that the final judgment out of the high court was accepted and they would move ahead. So I do think that these are the sort of risks that are there. What we’ve got to do is design it sufficiently so it’s bankable.

That’s the most important part. And Ayan’s point about having a rules-based tariff access rules, these are quite critical. Because if you don’t set that out from a regulatory point of view, from the outset, they’re not bankable. You know, you can’t go to a bank and say, look, I need funding for this if the rules are not clear or if projected revenues are ahead or not very clear on how they’ll be derived.

So I, I do think that these are going to be an important, so we’ve got to spend as a sort of state or regulating this instance, we got to spend an amount of time in designing it correctly, or they fail. We’ve got good examples of them. By the way Transnet has, for instance, issued RFPs and they’ve not always succeeded, and that’s the critical thing.

We’ve also got to think through how we deal with this in a different way. I mean, there is this the view that perhaps we should go for the sort of Durban Container Terminal kind of PSP’s because the design of PSP’s is quite an important part Jeremy. You could design it where you sell off an equity stake, which is what we’ve done at Durban Container Terminal Two.

I don’t think that’s the efficient way of trying to get into a partnership. In a view, I think that that much of what we think of in OV is a concession. Give a long-term concession. Let the operator decide on how best they will run, whether it’s a rail corridor, whether it’s a port. Let them decide on that because I think that in itself is a better and more efficient way, and there are ways that you can recover ofcourse, concessioning fees upfront, you know, returning the asset to a better state than what it was before. And we’ve seen that concession models do work. We’ve got good concession models in South Africa. The road network is a good concession model where Sanral has given out long-term concessions to road operators.

So I think we’ve got to just make sure that we design these things correctly. We’ve got to make sure that it’s bankable. We have to have an iterative process with the banks, with different stakeholders to make sure that everyone is satisfied and that we then go to market. So I suppose the, the business colleagues or the private sector guys will say, you slow.

I would rather say can we get it bankable…

[00:19:37] Jeremy: Ayan, let me use a word from a very famous movie “show me the money”. We’ve seen increased private sector participation in the system as Rudy was alluding to. What factors do you think are then enabling the much needed investment in ports and rail and to his point, I mean, which corridors do you think would benefit the most?

Ayan: Thanks, Jeremy. I think after years of stalled progress, what we are beginning to finally see is institutional capacity being rebuilt in South Africa, and regulatory frameworks being clarified, and hopefully that should lead to a growing pipeline of private sector involvement emerging across some of the corridors that Rudi mentioned.

I think while we are in the early stages process for this to scale. What I do think is needed is private operators and some of the financiers of this reform program need predictable rules of the game. Clear tariff structures, access rights, rewards and penalties in the right way, and some of these dispute resolution mechanisms.

It’s very clear that private sector participation in container terminals is beginning to progress. What we also heard at the conference is some of these iron ore exporters led by Kumba are pushing for an integrated session to Saldana concession, and that spans from the pit to the port, the full value chain.

And hopefully that becomes a template for corridor-based concessions more broadly. So yeah, I think we are in the early stages. We remain hopeful, but at the same time, what I must admit is the weakest link here remains local government where you’ve got municipal balance sheets that are very stressed, service delivery that’s inconsistent, and infrastructure maintenance that has been repeatedly crowded out.

Stabilising these municipalities is essential if the broader

00:21:40 Jeremy: Alright, so Rudi, let’s bring in water now because it’s increasingly looking like South Africa’s Achilles heel when it comes to reform. Around 59% of municipalities are effectively insolvent. How urgent then is this crisis? And maybe tell us what you think the government can do at a national level where you sit to restore some degree of confidence and I guess functionality.

Rudi: It’s a tricky one because let’s break up water, right? There’s bulk water, right, or raw water as it is, and that in itself is some area that I think we’ve made some significant progress. We’ve established, of course, a national water resource infrastructure agency. That’s an important step to be able to ensure that we can lock in private investment at a bulk water level.

Also, regulatory rules are important, for example, around how we deal with pricing raw water. The biggest constraint of water right now is not there. The biggest constraint is at a distribution level, and as you said, at the municipal level. Of the 144 water services providers, that’s 144 across the municipal system, 105 of them do not comply with the most basic conditions and that is the drop reports, blue drop, green drop, and no drop reports. And basically, those pre-reports are; blue drop is water quality. Green drop relates to wastewater treatment, and the no drop is non-revenue water -how much water leaks without us being able to know that.

So those are the drop reports, and certainly I think what we see in the latest report of the drop reports is that it’s gotten worse. So we’ve got to do an intervention. Why I say it’s complex is because municipalities have different sets of powers and functions relative to provincial and national government, right? that’s their competency of work. You can’t do something similar as we’ve done in Transnet or in Eskom. You got to use the particular provisions of the law, section 139, even if you want to intervene, or you got to develop an intergovernmental framework and relations to be able to deal with some of these things.

It’s a bit more complex, but we got to address it, a crisis, for example, in Johannesburg, crisis in many of the 105 municipalities where there’s no service provisions that are effectively compliant to the standards that we’ve set. One of the things that we have introduced and the president has made this really clear in the state of the nation was that the water services act, for example, is going to be amended, and the water services act basically says that if we do not comply with water quality, water standards and no drop, then you are going to take away your license. So we’ve introduced a licensing regime pretty similar to what NERSA does for energy, you know, so the National Energy Regulator has a licensing regime for all licensees, whether you are at a wholesale or at a retail level, this will be the same things.

And if a water service provider and authority doesn’t comply with the, with the water licensing provision, that license will be taken away.

[00:24:14] Jeremy: Ayan having said that, water though would be an underinvested infrastructure opportunity surely, maybe it would be useful for us if you were to expand on the risks and the opportunities again, from where you sit from an investment perspective.

Ayan: I think when you look across Africa and in South Africa as well, the water sector represents a systemic macroeconomic risk and a significant under-invested infrastructure opportunity. Water is simultaneously a constitutional right and a critical production input where two-thirds of the water usage is concentrated in agriculture, and that directly links to food security and to inflation as well.

We’ve seen performance deteriorating across multiple dimensions, and that includes supply, reliability, water quality, financial sustainability, and governance across most municipalities. The financial distress is very much widespread with more than 50% of municipalities effectively insolvent. We think that the private sector participation in the water reform space has been constrained by below-cost tariffs, weak utility creditworthiness, political resistance, and regulatory uncertainty. That said, billions of rands in water and sanitation could be unlocked should some of these projects be ring-fenced and tariffs are cost reflective.

What also may be important is, as Rudi mentioned, reducing usage of some of this non-revenue water in the whole process.

[00:25:47] Jeremy: Gentlemen, a lot to digest and I want to start bringing this conversation to an end and maybe one final question to all of you. And that’s the one constraint that, if resolved, would unlock large-scale private investment into South Africa’s infrastructure reform project.

And maybe let’s go back to you, Martin.

Martin: So for me, Jeremy, and both Rudi and Ayan have touched on it, it’s one word, it’s municipalities. For me, the structural issues within municipalities, the bankability of municipalities, are really hindering a lot of infrastructure development within the urban sector.

What we are seeing in the transmission space with the credit guarantee vehicle is a very exciting space. The thinking is that the credit enhancement to Eskom will then be rolled out into municipalities, which will then make a lot of the municipal projects or PPPs bankable. For me, it’s bankability Jeremy. If we can come up with a solution to make municipalities bankable, I think we’re going to see a major shift in reform in the country.

Jeremy: Rudi.

Rudi: Martin is spot on. If I could disclose the sort of project pipeline that exists in the municipal space, that’s where the trillion rand worth of investments that we can unlock, right? And the significant opportunities in roads, in civil, in other parts of civil, in water, in energy distribution, for example, are significant.

You, you got to design it so that we think through away from a traditional model where the state or conditional grants pay for that. How do we develop and create bankable projects that allows for the private sector to come into water or electricity distribution and that I think there’s a significant project pipeline as I say, we’ve got to get it to bankability, and that for me is the most important part, and that’s what can unlock the sort of growth that we require in our economy.

Jeremy: And Ayan, all of this against the backdrop of politics and we do have a transitioning political landscape in this country. From one party dominance to coalition politics, do you think we will see an increase in transparency and in performance accountability?

Ayan: Thanks Jeremy and I completely echo Martin and Rudi’s views. As you mentioned, the political fragmentation in South Africa has posed serious risks to stability and service delivery over the past decade. Against this backdrop, I think the GNU is a potential turning point in South Africa’s political trajectory.

It signals respect for the constitution, a new level of political maturity and cross-party cooperation, all of which help to lower perceived political risk in South Africa. Under the GNU. what we’ve achieved in South Africa is a credible macroeconomic framework, disciplined monetary policy, a GNU-endorsed budget, and hopefully planned fiscal anchors going forward.

The GNU does provide the political umbrella for structural reforms as Rudi and Martin have mentioned before. What is increasingly clear is looking forward, is the South Africa’s reform agenda is biased towards reorienting the economy towards its cross fixed capital formation and prioritising productive investment over consumption ultimately, and we continue to hope this will uplift South Africa’s GDP growth to 3% over the next 5 to 10 years. While the reform journey is far from complete, this does give us a sense of direction and critically a sense that investors are starting to notice and hopefully foreign investors reprice South Africa accordingly in the next 5 years.

[00:29:17] Jeremy: And that is where we are going to leave it and that brings this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday to a close. Martin Rudi and Ayan thank you very much indeed for joining me. Remember, a new episode of this series drops every fortnight. To ensure you don’t miss out search for Investec Focus Radio SA wherever you get your podcasts and hit the follow button.

Until next time, goodbye from me, Jeremy Maggs, and the entire Focus Radio team.

[00:29:57] Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the contributors at the time of publication and do not necessarily represent the views of the firm and should not be taken as advice or recommendations. Investec Limited and subsidiaries authorised financial service providers, registered credit providers, and long-term insurer.

Ghost Bites (Aimia | Schroder European Real Estate | Tharisa)

An opportunity to learn about Aimia (JSE: AII)

This is Rhys Summerton’s new kid on the block on the JSE

Rhys Summerton is the CEO of iOCO (JSE: IOC), one of the very few companies on the JSE that gives guidance based on free cash flow per share. Summerton is a capital allocator, so he gets traditional investors excited.

Aimia, an offshore company run by Summerton as executive chairman, recently executed a rather quiet listing on the JSE. I’m not sure what the exact plan is here, but people don’t implement new listings for no reason.

In a management information circular released for the AGM, there’s a really interesting letter from Summerton that gives information on the group.

Here are some great nuggets as we start to build familiarity with Aimia:

  • Aimia has been a public company for 20 years, beginning life as Air Canada’s frequent flyer program. After an initial frothy period and some exciting acquisitions, it nosedived during the Global Financial Crisis and spent years clawing its way back. It never actually recovered to the pre-crisis highs, as absolute disaster hit the company in 2017 when Air Canada elected not to renew the commercial agreement.
  • What followed was a period of multiple management changes, litigation with investors, fights over operational control and eventually a few more acquisitions for good measure. It’s quite a spicy history for a company that basically started out as a loyalty club!
  • Summerton became chairman on 27 March 2025. This led to the company being divided into four investment categories, one of which was its tax losses of $1.1 billion. Ever seen a tax loss segment before? Me neither.

So, what do they hold today, other than the tax losses?

Well, I should note that one of the other investment categories is the Holdco, which holds cash, debt and a small stake in Clear Media and other companies. Summerton has promised that Holdco costs will be reduced to below 1.5% of net asset value (NAV). It looks like they are also monetising the small stuff.

This leaves us with two other investment categories.

The first is Bozetto, an Italian specialty chemicals business which is currently being disposed of. The company needs cash to grow, something that Aimia isn’t in a position to provide. Net proceeds of $265 million to $271 million will be realised through this sale.

The second is Cortland, a rope and net manufacturer. Tariffs have been a difficult issue, but the company has put in a resilient performance nonetheless. They are sorting out the management structure, as the top execs are quite literally sprinkled around the world. I’m all for a hybrid working environment, but I agree with Summerton’s assessment of the current structure being “clumsy” – with execs based in Norway, the US, Canada and India! They are centralising the management team in the US.

If this has piqued your curiosity, then you’ll love the entertaining letter. It even makes reference to Remgro and quotes Jesus, albeit in different contexts! I think it’s worth reading in full.

What does the future hold? Well, the combination of a fresh listing on the JSE and the planned inflow of cash from Bozetto probably isn’t a coincidence. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see some local acquisitions by Aimia. Either that, or Summerton has come here in search of capital.

What are your initial views here?

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Aimia - something fresh, or another disappointment loading?

How do you feel about the Aimia opportunity?


Schroder European Real Estate’s valuation is still under pressure (JSE: SCD)

Does the portfolio have too many single-tenant buildings?

Another quarter, another decrease in the portfolio valuation at Schroder European Real Estate. This time, it’s down 0.7% between December 2025 and March 2026. That’s a material decrease over just three months, particularly in hard currency!

“Hard” is the word at Schroder, as they always seem to be dealing with some issues in the portfolio. These often relate to tenants either being in financial difficulty or simply vacating premises in the ordinary course of business, leaving Schroder with buildings that aren’t as easy to fill as you might expect.

Each quarter, there are bright spots and concerns in the portfolio. This is normal. The challenge at Schroder is that the negatives tend to outweigh the positives, with the share price down 15.2% in the past year. I appreciate that it’s not a direct comparison, but the Satrix Property ETF (as a proxy for the broader sector) is up 28% over the same period:

That is severe underperformance vs. the sector.


Tharisa begins the transition to underground mining (JSE: THA)

The latest quarter reflects a dip in PGM output due to lower grades

Tharisa, the PGM and chrome group, has released production results for the three months ended March 2026. This represents the second quarter of the 2026 financial year.

PGM production of 34.3 koz was down 11.6% vs. the quarter ended December 2025. If we take the six months for the year thus far, then production of 73.1 koz was 17% higher year-on-year. With PGM prices coming in so much higher than before, that’s good news for investors, even if the latest quarter was a slight disappointment.

The dip in PGM production on a quarter-on-quarter basis was due to a substantial 29.6% decrease in the reef mined during the period. They attribute this to “in-pit constraints” in the operations. Recovery rates were only slightly down, thankfully.

Chrome production was up 15.6% quarter-on-quarter, so that’s strong momentum. If we take the six-month view, production was flat year-on-year. Chrome prices are also up nicely though, so shareholders will still benefit from growth in chrome revenue.

Tharisa is taking a huge step forward with the transition into underground mining. They are looking to invest more than $500 million over the next decade at the Tharisa Mine, based on over 60 years of underground mining potential.

The Karo Platinum project in Zimbabwe is also making progress, with various workstreams underway. They are targeting first ore in mill in the second half of 2027.

The group’s net cash balance of $54.7 million is 16.4% higher than the $47 million balance as at the end of December 2025.

Full-year production guidance is set between 145 koz and 165 koz for PGMs. They are on 73.1 koz at the halfway mark in the year. For chrome, the target is 1.50 Mt to 1.65 Mt of chrome concentrates. They are sitting on 0.75 Mt after six months.

So far, so good then.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A prescribed officer of Absa (JSE: ABG) sold shares worth R5.6 million.
  • The new era of Mr Price (JSE: MRP) is upon us – the board has resolved to provide up to R200 million in financial assistance to foreign subsidiaries. The share price is still in the toilet after the shock of the NKD transaction announcement.
  • RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) announced that the Competition Tribunal has approved the offer by AttBid. There have been many juicy discussion points around this transaction, but the competition regulator has never come up as a potential stick in the mud. I’m not surprised at all to see an easy approval here.
  • One of the funnier things you’ll see on SENS is a reference to “disinterested directors” – and no, this has nothing to do with whether they would rather be playing golf. This means that they don’t have a commercial interest in the contract being discussed. In the latest example, the disinterested directors of Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) resolved to extend CEO Robinson Ramaite’s term by another 12 months to 31 March 2027.
  • A change to the lead independent director of a company is always worth noting. Anel van Niekerk has resigned from this role at Copper 360 (JSE: CPR). A new lead independent director hasn’t been announced yet.
  • Sasol (JSE: SOL) debt holders responded strongly to the company’s tender offer to repurchase 8.750% notes due in 2029. Sasol is happy to repurchase up to $334 million in notes, and the market has already validly tendered $533 million in notes. For context, the principal amount outstanding on these notes is $1 billion.
  • We are seeing a very similar story at AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG), with the company looking to repurchase up to $650 million in notes of various types. This means that there is an acceptance waterfall with different priority levels for the various notes. AngloGold has received almost $1.1 billion in tendered notes, so the cap will come into play. But only $558 million of priority 1 notes have been tendered, so the mix of acceptances might still change.
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