Wednesday, November 19, 2025
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Ghost Bites (Astral Foods | MTN | Ninety One | Pick n Pay | Prosus – Naspers | Sirius Real Estate | WeBuyCars)

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It’s amazing to see such “normal” numbers at Astral Foods (JSE: ARL)

The poultry sector usually dishes up wild swings

When I see results come in from chicken businesses, I brace myself for large percentage moves in profits despite modest moves in revenue. But in the year ended September, Astral posted numbers that look so… normal? Almost as though the usual chaotic operating leverage in the chicken business was nowhere to be found! Of course, we must dig deeper to figure out why.

At group level, revenue was up 10% and HEPS was up 14%. These are such sensible numbers. There’s a hint of the volatility we are used to when you look at the dividend though, as much improved trading conditions allowed them to more than double the dividend over the year (up 112%). A combination of stronger volumes and better selling prices led to the boost to profits and especially to operating cash flows.

It starts to make more sense when you look at the poultry division (82.5% of group revenue), where you’ll see a dramatic jump in operating profit of 52.6% if you adjust for insurance proceeds in the base period. The usual operating leverage is being masked by once-off gains in the comparable period.

It’s almost impossible to forecast what could happen in this sector, but at least Astral has managed to repair the balance sheet and bank a solid set of numbers.


Over 300 million customers at MTN – but watch those South African numbers (JSE: MTN)

Africa is now doing all the heavy lifting

MTN is always a fascinating company to follow because of how important the broader macroeconomic story in Africa is. When African currencies are stable (particularly against the US dollar), the pressure comes off those subsidiaries and they generate cash. Of course, one good year for the currencies doesn’t mean that the bad times won’t return.

For now at least, MTN is enjoying group service revenue growth of 22.6% for the nine months to September, along with 23% growth in Q3. But if you dig deeper into the numbers, you’ll find that South Africa is now the headache.

MTN South Africa’s revenue was up just 2%, with competitive pressure in prepaid as one of the major factors. It’s not a shock that voice revenue was down 2.8% (when last did you make a normal call?), but I was surprised to see fintech revenue down 5.1%. EBITDA fell by 3.2% on an adjusted basis and 4.8% without adjustments. If there’s a silver lining in the MTN South Africa numbers, it’s that “Home” customers – i.e. internet solutions for households – increased by 30%.

To show just how well the African subsidiaries pulled the group out of the South African struggles, group voice revenue was up by double digits despite the drop in South Africa. As for what really counts, group EBITDA came in 41.1% higher and margin expanded by 6.7 percentage points to 45.0%.

Looking at the balance sheet, group net debt to EBITDA improved from 0.7x to 0.4x. Given the historical issues in upstreaming cash from African subsidiaries, MTN still reports holdco leverage i.e. the debt and cash sitting right at the top. Holdco leverage was flat at 1.4x. A juicy dividend from MTN Nigeria is expected to be received in Q4, so that will improve the holdco picture.

The South African business is a tough place to grow for the telcos, hence they went off to chase the opportunity in the rest of Africa. In the past year at least, it paid off!


Double-digit growth at Ninety One thanks to greater global focus on emerging markets (JSE: N91 | JSE: NY1)

The transaction with Sanlam (JSE: SLM) also didn’t hurt

Ninety One has highlighted a global focus on emerging markets as a useful driver of earnings for the six months to September. That certainly ties in with what we’ve seen this year, as the shine has come off the US economy (excluding AI) and investors have looked elsewhere for appealing risk-adjusted returns.

Positive net inflows are always important to see, as this is the best measure of whether the investment industry is supporting the company’s strategy. Net inflows of £4.3 billion can be compared to closing assets under management of £152.1 million. It looks decent even if you adjust for the Sanlam transaction that brought in £1.9 billion in assets (included in the previously mentioned net inflow).

By the time you reach the bottom of the income statement, you find HEPS growth of 14% and an 11% increase in the interim dividend per share. Double-digit growth is happy news for shareholders, with the share price having moved sharply higher this year (more than 38%) in response to stronger market conditions in an ex-US world. As always, you ignore the macroeconomics and geopolitics at your peril!

Looking ahead, the South African leg of the Sanlam deal is expected to close in the second half of the year.


The Ackerman family is reducing their stake in Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK)

They attribute this to a desire to settle third-party funding

Turnarounds are hard. Retail turnarounds are even harder, especially when food inflation is low and the best source of growth is from an improvement in volumes. This makes it a tough environment to grow, as volumes are such a bloodbath of competition.

Pick n Pay is still very much a tale of two businesses, with the stake in Boxer (JSE: BOX) giving them a decent valuation underpin while the core Pick n Pay business continues to make losses. At least like-for-like sales have shown signs of life at Pick n Pay Supermarkets.

Despite this being early days in the turnaround, the Ackerman family will be reducing their stake by offering up to 8.5% of total shares in Pick n Pay to qualifying investors via a bookbuild process. It’s more helpful to consider what percentage of their stake is being sold, rather than the percentage of total shares in issue. The answer? A significant 32% drop in the family’s economic interest is on the table.

The family’s official story is that they are looking to settle the third-party funding that was raised to help recapitalise and stabilise the company. Fair enough – debt is expensive in South Africa. Of course, those with a bearish view on Pick n Pay would also point to the expectation for losses to continue for a while, which leaves the share price with an uncertain trajectory.


Prosus and Naspers flag a juicy jump in HEPS (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)

Tencent’s recent performance certainly helps here

Mobile gaming is doing quite well at the moment, so we saw solid recent numbers at Tencent. This is of course great news for Prosus and Naspers, particularly when accompanied by the progress made in the profitability of the rest of the group as part of their “Tencent plus” strategy – a desire to be valued at a premium to the Tencent stake rather than a discount!

Trading statements like the one for the six months to September 2025 will certainly help. Core HEPS at Prosus is expected to increase by between 20.1% and 28.5%. The increase at Naspers is very similar, with expected growth of 20.8% to 27.8%.

Detailed results are expected to be released on 24 November.


Mid-single digit growth in the dividend at Sirius while earnings catch up to capital raises (JSE: SRE)

This is typical of property funds in periods of extensive capital raises

Sirius Real Estate certainly knows how to make the most of the opportunity presented by capital markets. They regularly raise equity and debt capital to drive acquisitions and further growth in their core markets of focus, Germany and the UK.

But when this happens, there is inevitably a short-term drag on earnings due to the delay in deploying fresh capital into income-generating assets. Sirius is actually very good at getting the funds out the door, so they’ve managed to achieve a flat performance in funds from operations per share for the six months to September. This should improve going forwards.

One of the key underlying drivers of performance is like-for-like growth in the rent roll, up 5.2% in this period. Funds from operations increased by 6.6%. There were some forex losses that impacted profits further down the income statement, but the dividend for the first year was up 4% and that’s what investors are likely to care about most.

In Europe, the key measure related to NAV is the EPRA NTA per share. It dipped by 1.4% as valuation gains were offset by the forex losses mentioned above. The loan-to-value ratio is a healthy 38.3%.

All eyes are on the second half of the year when the benefit of acquisitions should start to come through.


A disruptive year for the disruptor: WeBuyCars had to respond to the influx of cheap new vehicles (JSE: WBC)

The brand agnostic strategy means that I remain a happy shareholder

The journey of a business is never linear. Anyone who believes this to be the case has clearly never built a business or looked at a growth stock of any kind. There will be great years, good years and even a few bad years where things slow down. The point is to look through the noise and figure out whether there’s a structural problem or not.

With the vast array of affordable Chinese and Indian vehicles in new car showrooms in South Africa, there was no chance of there being zero impact on used car prices. If you can suddenly buy a brand new car for the same price as a used German of equivalent specs, then the only outcome is for the used price to drop further until a market equilibrium is reached.

The WeBuyCars share price has suffered a significant correction, something that isn’t uncommon in growth stocks with high multiples:

This is a brand-agnostic business, so they aren’t sitting with a dealer footprint tied into specific brands. This is one of the reasons why I have a position in this stock, as it feels like they have the most adaptable model in the sector. They just need to tweak their buying behaviour and offer prices in response to what happens in the market, while waiting for the new generation of vehicles to land in the used market and create opportunities for churn.

For the year ended September, WeBuyCars grew revenue by 13.1% and core headline earnings by 15%. Unfortunately, due to share issuances at the time when WeBuyCars was cut loose from the festering wounds of Transaction Capital, core HEPS is only up by 3.3%.

My view is this: in a year when the entire automotive retail landscape changed in South Africa, WeBuyCars still grew HEPS at a time when they also had to overcome the distortion of more shares being in issue for reasons beyond their control. That’s not the worst outcome.

Are there reasons to be concerned? Of course – every company has a bear case! WeBuyCars had a weaker second half because of selling price pressures on used vehicles, so investors will be looking for that situation to normalise as quickly as possible. The company has tweaked its model towards more affordable vehicles, having gone too premium at a time when premium car values took a knock.

Another thing to keep an eye on is capital deployment, particularly as the company is expanding rapidly. Cash is always king and especially in a business model like this.

As a sign of where the group is headed, Chief Digital Officer Wynand Beukes has been appointed as the incoming Deputy CEO. If you would like to hear more about the strategy of the group from CEO Faan van der Walt as well as Wynand, then you can enjoy this podcast that I recorded with them as an additional resource for investors alongside the results.

I’m holding my shares and looking for an opportunity to add more in this correction.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An executive director of Richemont (JSE: CFR) took advantage of recent share price strength to sell shares worth R2.2 million.
    • Two non-executive directors of Quilter (JSE: QLT) bought shares worth over R1.7 million in aggregate.
    • An associate of the CEO of Grand Parade Investments (JSE: GPL) bought shares worth R332.
  • Astoria (JSE: ARA) has released the delisting circular. If it goes ahead, this means that another investment holding company would be leaving our market based on the discounts to NAV that just never seem to go away. These discounts leave these companies hamstrung, as issuing shares at a 40% discount to NAV in order to do acquisitions isn’t appealing. The offer price is R8.15 per share in cash, but that amount is juiced up by the planned unbundling of 12 Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) shares for every 100 Astoria shares held. At current prices of Goldrush, that’s R72 of value per 100 Astoria shares, or R0.72 per share in addition to the R8.15 cash offer. The Goldrush value is obviously a moving target, whereas the cash is fixed. Notably, holders of 60.1% of shares in Astoria have given irrevocable undertakings to not accept the offer. In case you’re wondering, the independent expert report references management fees, admin costs and general holding company discounts as the explanation for why the value is below the NAV. As mentioned, this is a sector-wide rather than company-specific issue.
  • Barloworld (JSE: BAW) is surely on the cusp of delisting, having been the subject of a successful (and somewhat contentious) offer by a consortium including the CEO. I’ll therefore just give the results a short note down here in the Nibbles, as these numbers are of far more relevance to the acquirers than the broader market. With HEPS down by 21% for the year ended September, Barloworld has been struggling with this phase in the cycle. Even if you exclude the highly problematic Russian business, group revenue was down 4.7% and HEPS fell 14%. Thanks to a substantial increase in free cash flow, group debt has come down significantly. That’s going to be important as the company likely moves into the private space, as the balance sheet will need to be able to ride out the cycles.
  • Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) has received approval from the Competition Tribunal for the sale of the South African chrome and PGM operations. There are still a couple of outstanding conditions, including SARB approval and an audit workstream. The current long-stop date for the fulfilment of all conditions is 31 December 2025.
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) is certainly keeping SENS busy, with the latest update being that subsidiary Quantum Leap Energy has agreed to issue convertible promissory notes worth $64.3 million. Remember, that subsidiary is currently being prepared for a separate listing.
  • I don’t mention every share buyback in Ghost Bites, but I do highlight the unusual ones. Between 14 October and 14 November, MAS (JSE: MAS) repurchased just over 3% of shares in issue.
  • There’s almost no liquidity in the stock of Afine Investments (JSE: ANI), so the results for the six months to August just get a passing mention down here. Although the forecourt-focused property company grew distributable earnings by 29%, the dividend per share was only 9% higher. The NAV per share increased by more than 14%. Those are strong numbers!
  • Deutsche Konsum (JSE: DKR) will delist from the JSE on 9 December. I doubt that anyone is actually going to notice.

Ghost Stories #82: WeBuyCars – from dealer revolution to digital evolution

WeBuyCars is an excellent example of a disruptor in the South African market, having completely changed the way people buy and especially sell their vehicles. Gone are the days of desperate listings in the classifieds and opaque market prices that are difficult to estimate. Today, the used car market is liquid and filled to the brim with data, thanks primarily to the scale achieved by WeBuyCars.

As a sign of just how valuable the data and technology systems are, WeBuyCars has announced that Chief Digital Officer Wynand Beukes will also take the role of Deputy CEO as part of succession planning at the group. CEO Faan van der Walt isn’t going anywhere just yet though – he still has plenty of energy to give the group.

In this candid discussion about the vehicle market and the business, Faan and Wynand joined me to discuss topics like:

  • The succession planning at the group and what investors can expect from this.
  • The significant changes in the local vehicle landscape and the impact this has had on used car vehicles and trade patterns.
  • The flexibility in the WeBuyCars business model and how they use data and technology to buy smarter and optimise their operations.
  • Opportunities related to value-added services and expansion of the footprint.

Please note that I have a long position in WeBuyCars at the time of this recording – a position that I have written about many times before.

This podcast has been sponsored by WeBuyCars. As always, I was given an opportunity to dig into the strategy and ask my own questions in my quest to learn more. You must always do your own research and speak to a financial advisor before making any decision to invest. This podcast should not be seen as an investment recommendation or an endorsement.

Listen to the podcast here:

Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Faan van der Walt has been building WeBuyCars with his brother and team since 2001. Well over two decades later, the company has named Chief Digital Officer Wynand Beukes as Deputy CEO, a sign of intent around not just succession planning, but the importance of technology and data in the next chapter of the story. As always, you must do your own research, and please note that I do have a long position. 

Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. I’m really lucky with what I get to do for a living, because I get to speak to the people managing and building some of the most interesting businesses in South Africa, and one of my personal favourite growth stories of recent years has certainly been WeBuyCars. Anyone who has followed my writing for any length of time will know that I am a WeBuyCars shareholder, so let me just get that disclosure out of the way. I am also a dyed-in-the-wool petrolhead, which may or may not have something to do with my WeBuyCars shareholding, but actually the truth of it is this is my only holding in the sector and there are reasons for that. I do really like the business. 

I’m so looking forward to this episode. It’s based on an announcement that is really red hot off the press, so this is bringing you really up-to-date insights into what’s going on at the company. And who better to chat to than CEO Faan van der Walt and interestingly, iincoming Deputy CEO, Wynand Beukes. Welcome to both of you and I am very excited to be doing this with you.

Faan van der Walt: Thank you, Ghost. Nice chatting to you and exciting times indeed.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Faan, let’s start with you and then we’ll pull Wynand into this. So, this is the classic journey for a founder-CEO, right? At some point you need to start handing your baby over into the capable hands of others. As a founder myself (of something very, very, very small in comparison to what you’ve built), I can just imagine what that journey is like. We’ve seen it play out before at other listed companies on the JSE. It’s always lovely to follow these kinds of stories and see what decisions get made around succession. And that’s really what has happened here. 

So, before we chat to Wynand, why don’t you set the scene for us on that succession journey for you and why you believe that Wynand is the right guy for the job?

Faan van der Walt: It’s been a question for decades in my head: What would the future look like beyond my tenure as CEO? And the announcement we’re making is the appointment of Wynand as the Deputy CEO for a period of time until myself and the board feel that the time is ripe to hand over the reins. 

Firstly as an entrepreneur, and I’ve said this many times before, but the ultimate test of entrepreneurship or a founder-led business is to let go and have the business maintain and grow beyond the tenure of the founder. So, that’s a goal of mine and my brother Dirk, who founded the business with us. And good examples are some of South Africa’s successful businesses, like Dis-Chem and Capitec, who managed to go through that. Internationally, you have the likes of McDonald’s. I’d love to see WeBuyCars succeed way into the future. 

So, my role over time will change, but I will remain on the board and I’ll definitely remain a shareholder. I love being involved in the business. This is a proactive step in giving Wynand the chance to learn from me in more ways than what we’ve done so far, but we’ve already had a magnificent journey together. 

About 8 years ago I struggled to convince Wynand to come and work at WeBuyCars. It wasn’t easy, because he’s quite a demanding person and he wanted to know what my vision was for this business! I had to explain to him the growth and the future prospects of this business. Since he joined, he’s developed a deep understanding of the business and the culture – which I rate as probably the most important thing in the business. 

Operationally, he specialises in technology and developing systems and we’ve become more and more of a company that is dependent on that. So, I’m excited about the journey ahead. Wynand has proven himself over and over again as someone who has deep insights and also an entrepreneurial side – he loves experiments and is always full of ideas. With him around, I am happy to go into the future with him at WeBuyCars.

The Finance Ghost: So Faan, just for the benefit of listeners: those aren’t actually cell phone notifications happening there, that is your parrot. Your parrot has clearly learned precisely what cell phone and email notifications sound like, so kudos there to the official WeBuyCars parrot.

I guess it speaks to how many notifications are coming through all the time – not least of all from your digital man, Wynand, who will now be stepping into this Deputy CEO role. I want to get a proper understanding from him very shortly about what the digital world looks like, but a couple of things I just want to touch on from your answer there, Faan. 

One, I can only imagine what it’s like to have created a legacy brand that all your competitors also put on their window. That for me remains the funniest thing about WeBuyCars – that basically every dealer these days just writes “We buy cars!” on their window. Like, “We also do! Come and speak to us!” It’s really, really funny. I’ve personally always gotten a kick out of that. I can only imagine for you how funny it actually is.

And of course they’re not always your competitors. Many of them are your customers, right? Because you sell a lot into the trade.

Faan van der Walt: Correct, yes. We have a very strong dealer base or dealer network who source their stock from us, and it’s been part of the journey from the beginning. When we started in 2001, the majority of the cars we sold were to dealers. We grew relationships with dealers over the years and today we have over 1,000 dealers who are registered and regular customers of WeBuyCars. So about a quarter of all the vehicles that we sell is to the trade. And it’s various dealerships – from the big OEMs all the way through to smaller dealerships dealing in the lower price ranges.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that’s something we’re definitely going to touch on later. So, Wynand, before we start chatting to you – any disclosure from you around exotic animals that are going to make interesting sounds, or can we blame any odd sounds on your recording entirely on you?

Wynand Beukes: Entirely on me.

The Finance Ghost: Okay, well it’s good to get that disclosure out the way, that’s very important. So Wynand, it sounds like why Faan chose you is because you came in, gave him a hard time and asked the tough questions. All jokes aside, if you listen to podcasts of great founders globally, they often talk about how much they value that. So, I’m not surprised actually. They’re not looking for people to just come and blow smoke literally, they’re looking for people to come in and ask tough questions – “How do we take this business forward?” and “Why should I be here?”. So, well done to you, you obviously asked the right questions. 

And from my side, as an investor, I like the fact that you’re coming into this with a digital background. I think that counts for a lot because I would imagine, with taking the business from where it is today to where it can get to and what the future might hold, tech platforms, Big Data, machine learning, (dare I say it?) AI – that could be a big part of the future of the business, right? So, maybe you can just give us a little bit of an intro around how long you’ve been with the group – let’s start there – and then some of the tech capability that’s been built and what actually makes you excited about the future.

Wynand Beukes: Thank you, Ghost, and thanks for having us. I must say, I’m very honoured to step into this role of Deputy CEO and I’m genuinely excited about the opportunity to help lead this company into its next chapter. Having served as Chief Digital Officer since 2018, I’ve had the privilege of working closely with our executive team under the guidance of Faan. 

Over the last eight years, I’ve had the privilege to be part of the amazing information technology and data science team to build our proprietary digital business platform. Spanning across the business, it serves as the backbone of our operations. Our platform integrates data, AI and experimentation seamlessly across the business, with a major focus on our data capabilities to evaluate the customer experience. I think that has laid a strong foundation for the future. 

I think that as Deputy CEO, my focus will be on building on that momentum that we’ve built over the last eight years since we started with this digital transformation journey in WeBuyCars. We will focus on driving innovation, keep on unlocking operational efficiencies – one of Faan’s driving forces – and ensuring that technology continues to serve as a catalyst for growth. 

At the same time, I just want to deepen our commitment to the customer’s interest here, across every part of the business. I think that ultimately our ability to integrate digital thinking with commercial execution will be a major differentiator for us in the market going forward. You’ve mentioned all the buzzwords in the sector: technology, data and AI, but that is here to stay. We’ll continue to adopt it, and that will sit at the centre of how we scale the business going forward. 

Quite excited, nervous, but I look forward to working alongside the executive team, our employees and all our partners to scale what we’ve already achieved and to steer the organisation confidently through its next phase of growth. As we move forward, this is a solid technology platform that will continue to be a major driver for growth, helping us to innovate faster, operate smarter and hopefully deliver value at scale. Scale is the big play, going forward.

The Finance Ghost: The nice thing with this business is you can quite easily see the reason why having better data actually makes a difference, right? It lets you buy better; it lets you understand. You’ve got so many cars going through the system. I don’t think that anyone has a better dataset in the country about car values, buying habits, etcetera, etcetera, than WeBuyCars. I mean, this has got to be the biggest dataset, right?

Wynand Beukes: Exactly. That’s a huge focus and that was the beginning in 2018 when we made a decision to insource the digital business platform – to build it ourselves in-house – and there were two principles based on that decision. The one was that we wanted to be in control of the software, firstly – we wanted to be agile, quick, and if we had to make changes we had to be able to make it quickly to adapt to market conditions. 

And the second thing was we wanted to be in control of the data and the quality of the data. So we had – when we started building a team up from some of the first people that we employed – not only developers, but data people: to walk the journey with us and to make sure that our data pipelines are clean. It’s that old saying “garbage in, garbage out”, and we wanted to make sure that we get the data, we store the data and we utilise data. 

I think the difficult thing about data is to operationalise it. Many companies have lots of data. The question is: How do you use the data to make decisions, and make them faster and faster and more precisely, with the same amount of people? This is a difficult question to answer, for many companies.

The Finance Ghost: Yes, absolutely. And it is the question that is being asked of everyone now, so it’s going to be fun to see how this turns out. Faan, from your perspective, you’ve been doing this for over two decades now, so you’ve seen a fair bit in this industry – from very humble beginnings in this business to the monster that it is today. But I wonder if you’ve seen anything like what we’ve seen in the past couple of years, with this influx of Chinese and (to a lesser extent, but still material) Indian brands that have suddenly won so much market share. 

I have found it absolutely fascinating to see how the legacy brands have been given a little bit of a hiding, let’s be honest, by some of these competitors. It’s looking pretty dire for some of these European names. And, as I said at the start of the show: dyed-in-the-wool petrolhead and WeBuyCars shareholder – why do I not have shares in any of the other companies? And that’s because I was very worried about what it would be like for them, representing brands when things are changing so rapidly in the space. And kudos to them, they do seem to have done a pretty good job of navigating that in New Car land. 

You guys are obviously only operating in Used Car land (and please do stay there, because that is certainly, I think, a large part of the investment case – so don’t be tempted). 

Faan, from your perspective in terms of this Chinese influx and everything that’s happened. I mean, you are right on the inside. You can see what’s happened to car values, what effect that’s had. I’d like to open the floor to you to maybe just walk us through what you’ve seen in the last year or two. Have the legacy brands had accelerated depreciation? What has this meant for your business, especially in the latest period? Because I know it did have an impact in the latest numbers.

Faan van der Walt: We have certainly seen an impact in recent months, but it’s not something new. The first time I encountered this was in 1996, so it’s about 30 years ago when we saw that. 

Back in the day you didn’t get a Toyota Tazz, you had a Toyota Conquest and they were selling for just over R40,000 in 1996. And then, Toyota brought out the Tazz which was a more value-based one, only four-speed (the Conquest was a five-speed) and it really slammed the market for their competitors – the Mazdas, the Ford Lasers, and so on. So, that was my first encounter because I sat with one of the…

The Finance Ghost: Sorry, that is such a nice memory. I was just going into primary school and I remember that my cousin got a Tazz. That was a big deal. That is a great memory, actually. Cars have changed a lot.

Faan van der Walt: Yes. So, I’ve had personal experience of taking some pain at points in time, but sometimes it works in your favour. Like we had just after COVID when, with the supply chain issues, used-car inflation grew dramatically and vehicles actually went up in value. It was a great period for us, because we could trade cars, everyone had equity in the vehicles, it was really easy. And then the year after…

The Finance Ghost: It’s what it’s like to be a nursery, right? Your stock grows in value every day, you don’t even have to water it during inflation like that – it just goes up.

Faan van der Walt: Yes, sometimes you have headwinds and sometimes you have tailwinds. So the year after that, when the new cars came in again, we saw that deflationary effect again. And we’ve seen some of that this year as well, and especially on the fairly new vehicles. Fortunately for us, the average car we sell is about nine-to-ten-years old and we do have these impacts. For instance, right now we’ve seen accelerated depreciation on some of these legacy brands. 

I was in a shopping centre and there was a Jetour standing there for R480,000, brand new, being displayed. I looked at our website and I saw that we’ve got a very similar one that’s a year old that we are selling for R410,000, so that’s about a 20% depreciation a year later and 25,000 kilometres later. So it’s a normal depreciation that this vehicle goes through, because the moment you leave the floor, that’s 10%, and usually you can calculate around 1% per month. 

So for us, yes it did impact us over the financial year. We could certainly see, in certain categories and price points, that new car supply pushes down used pricing, and then you have margin pressure. So how do we handle that? Obviously, our model is built for velocity. So, we have the luxury of being able to adjust our prices dynamically to market conditions. And that’s exactly what we’ve done. So, in areas where we saw that overlap, we could adjust and liquidate stock and utilise those funds in price ranges where it’s not affected. And we could be more aggressive there.

The Finance Ghost: Just saying velocity reminds me of those Citi Golfs. So I had a Corsa Lite, I was more on that side of the fence than the Citi Golf Velocitis. But it was such a simple time in the world. There were only a few new cars at a time. They would come out, and there would be one (like you say, the Toyota Tazz or the Conquest, or whatever) and it would be, “Are you this one or that one? Is it Ford or VW? And now there is just this incredible number of options. 

The car culture has definitely changed, that’s my read on it for sure, over the past few decades. It’s more competitive now, I don’t think any of the legacy brands can really rest on their laurels at all. I mean, you’ve just used that perfect example of these Jetours. There it is with much the same depreciation curve that you’re going to get on a new VW. You’re not going to get a premium on the German car, used. 

And I think what’s interesting is you mentioned the nine-to-ten-year-old average. And that’s a big part of the business model, right? So not only are you built for velocity and basically getting the stuff out the door quickly, but you’re also buying stock at a point where the rate of depreciation has slowed, dramatically. I mean, would that be an accurate statement that that is definitely part of the business model?

Faan van der Walt: Well, sometimes they start appreciating again. A typical good example is the Nissan NP200, which is currently on an upward trend – especially the ones older than five years. So, you cannot rely on book values at all. 

It’s a mess when you look at book values, but this also creates a problem for insurers and banks on which we want to finance that, because the dealers (and us included) sell them way beyond what the book value would be and they still go up in value. A year ago, we would sell a six-, seven-year-old Nissan NP200 typically for R110,000, but now the same car you would find on our floor for R125,000 to R130,000. So yes, it’s true. They slow down depreciation, but they can also start appreciating.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, the Nissan NP200, the Nokia 3310 of bakkies right there. And people like to hate on buying new cars, and I always have these fights online. So, the newest model car that I have personally ever owned is a 2015. And I bought it basically new at the time, and then regretted it severely afterwards because it had electrical issues from day one. It’s a sad story and not even an exciting brand – that was the worst part. I bought a sensible car. I think that is the only sensible car that I have owned of the 20-plus cars that I’ve owned in my life. So, it just goes to show: buy something pretty and then at least you’ll be able to forgive it when it breaks. Anyway, that’s just the problem with being a petrolhead.

But Wynand, maybe back to you on how you see this play out in the inventory strategies, the buying strategies, etcetera. Again, I would imagine that this is where the data makes a big difference, right? This is where you need to be monitoring depreciation curves, I’m guessing also stuff like hits on the website, to try and gauge the demand for these vehicles. I can just imagine how much data you have to look at, because such a big part of your business is online as well, right? And you can just measure so much.

Wynand Beukes: Ghost, to be honest, we collect data on every touchpoint with a customer. If you asked us our vision a couple of years ago, it was: “How do we own or control every touchpoint with a customer?” And that statement just comes down to the fact that we just want to collect data on every point. And we use that all as input to our datasets and into our price models, to recalibrate and retrain these models to give input to pricing, sales channel optimisation, inventory turn, stock turn, stock days, stock mix in branches and provinces, for example. All these factors – market analytics of all the listing platforms – we take all this into account to make sure that we get to accurate decisions for velocity. 

That’s what we build for and that’s what the business is built on. We have to use all this data –  from clicks on the website, views, number of checkouts of car keys, for example, number of test drives – everything gets taken into account. So we’ve got huge datasets where we’re collecting many, many gigs of data every day. And that is no small task: to process all that data and to operationalise that into your business, but I think that we’ve done that well and I think that we have a good foundation going forward…

Faan van der Walt: Sorry Ghost, you would find this one interesting. Wynand also collects the data of which radio stations are in the presets of the car radios, and that helps to inform where we do our radio advertising campaigns. So right now we’re on over 30 radio stations, but sometimes you see many cars coming in with certain radio stations tuned to, but we’re not advertising there yet. And it then shows you, “Hang on, a typical customer might listen to Metro FM.” And then you’ll approach them and start advertising there – which we recently did, by the way. So, it’s an interesting one.

The Finance Ghost: It’s clever data. We joke about it, but that’s actually quite smart. And I think Wynand, it’s basically stalking at scale, right? It’s understanding as much as you can about all your different types of customers across all your different regions and what they’re interested in and what types of cars.

Because it’s a very personal thing – much as car culture, in my opinion, is not what it used to be unfortunately, especially on the entry-level stuff. I think there was a time in the world where, if you were an entry-level buyer, there were still a lot of different cars to choose from that said something about you. It does feel that everything’s become a bit sanitised now, there is a lot of sameness, but still, you know, it helps to understand the colours of cars that people like and all of that kind of thing. It’s a big part of what you need to be doing. 

And the other area where I have seen much of this process, coming through my own experience having dealt with WeBuyCars just in the day-to-day… I remember a few years ago if you sold to WeBuyCars it always felt like it kind of depended who you got on the day, a little bit. It wasn’t necessarily the exact same process across the board, that was my experience at least. And then my soon-to-be mother-in-law sold a vehicle to you guys probably about a year ago now, year and a half. I remember helping her with it and I was super impressed because it was so process-driven. Like the buyer had a proper list of stuff that needed to happen and actually picked up things on the car that I didn’t even know about, you know, little paint issues there, oh maybe there had been something there. It was very, very impressive. 

It was definitely at least as good as selling a car to a supposedly premium new car dealer with a fancy showroom, if not more thorough. And that for me, I remember saying to him – and it was probably the strangest comment he’d received all week, your buyer – “As an investor, this really pleases me, as you sit here and mark down this car.” I’m not sure that my mother-in-law liked that part so much, but it definitely pleased me as a shareholder to see that level of thoroughness.

Wynand Beukes: Yes, Ghost, that is a very good point. If you turn the clock back to 2018, I think that one of the biggest risks for the business was Faan himself. If a bus drove over him, then we were in big trouble, because he understands vehicles, and the market, and the service so, so well and has been doing this already for so many years. We had to get to a stage where we thought:: “How do we create at scale a repeatable process to be consistent not just in Gauteng but across the country as well?” And that’s exactly what you’re referring to. 

So, we’ve worked very hard on the buying process to get our pricing models correct, and give a consistent customer and user experience across the board. It doesn’t matter if you’re selling a cheap R50,000 vehicle or a R2 million vehicle, we just want to make sure that we provide an excellent service to that customer at a fair market price and provide him a service and buy that car as quickly as possible.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, basically it’s FaaS, right? It’s Faan-as-a-Service. That’s what you need to roll out across the entire business, is a lot of people with Faan’s understanding of the market out there doing what Faan has done to build this business up with the core team around him. So yeah, that is the journey of a founder-led business, particularly a disruptor – and particularly a business that I think is doing things differently, which is what WeBuyCars is.It has certainly been a disruptive force in the market. 

People forget quickly. I remember what it was like to have to sell a car on Gumtree – the bid-offer spread on every sale was insane. You were really lucky if you were offered a decent price on that car. Especially if, as in my case, I was mostly selling a high-mileage Alfa Romeo, which is sometimes easy and sometimes very hard. And then WeBuyCars came along and there was just this floor price put into the market of, “Listen. You now don’t actually need to accept a ridiculous trade-in offer because you’re desperate.” Or those forced sales on Gumtree of, “I’m emigrating and I desperately need to sell XYZ.” I remember those days because I used to take advantage of them as often as possible – that’s why I used to change my car more often, because the market was less efficient, bluntly. 

Whereas now – so I can blame you for this actually – the market is a lot more efficient. That bid-offer spread has closed, those desperate sales. If you’re emigrating, you can now drive your car to WeBuyCars. And as a result, I think other players in the market have been forced to start making more competitive offers when buying vehicles, right? I mean, that’s surely something you’ve observed as well. They’ve had to come to where you are because that’s just the reality. It’s pretty easy for a consumer to cross-shop and come and take the better offer.

Faan van der Walt: Yes, 100%. The whole offering has really transformed the market for both consumers and dealers. I recently met a dealer – and in the past dealers would say to me, “Oof, you’ve killed our market.” But the clever ones have caught on – and this specific dealer told me that, since we’ve opened in Rustenburg, his business has started booming because he can now easily offer his clientele good trade-in offers. Because when someone wants to sell him a vehicle, he takes it to WeBuyCars, he gets a good price and then he can decide whether he wants to keep the car or sell it to us. So, the client gets a great deal and he gets to sell his car that he wants to sell. 

So quite often, dealers are very brand-conscious and brand-specific and they don’t want to trade in different brands and, what they call “contaminate their inventory” with foreign or alien brands. They would contact us directly and they can rely on the prices that we give. So it’s been good, and it’s become more reliable, it is more reputable. 

And what we also see is that people tend to churn their cars quicker, if they don’t depreciate as much, when they get good deals. So, I would love to see cars churn more. That would really stimulate the industry because the more deals we do, the more opportunity there is to make money. 

But also, getting a new car is an exciting part of your life, it’s like going on a holiday. And we see people buy a car from us and bring it back 6 months later, 12 months later, and buy something else. And it is not as if there is something wrong with the vehicle, it’s just that they are happy to take R10,000 or R20,000 less for that vehicle now, once they’ve used it a year, and buy something else. Getting something more exciting or something newer, lower mileage. They can make these upgrades (or downgrades, if needed) far easier than before.

The Finance Ghost: It’s like buying and selling shares. If the costs are low, then people do it more often. The reason people don’t buy and sell their homes very often is because transfer duty and estate agency fees are enormous. Those are the two extremes – somewhere in the middle is buying and selling cars. And I guess the more efficient you can make that process using tech and other methods, then the more people will churn. I mean, this is human behaviour. I tend to agree with that. That’s exactly the behaviour that will happen.

What is really interesting is when you speak to people in the market and sometimes people make this cheeky joke, “It’s called WeBuyCars but are they selling cars?” And then they’re almost trying to look for ways to dig holes in this business model. Unfortunately, success does tend to attract a bit of jealousy in the market, and people getting angry and looking for issues. That’s just the reality of life, unfortunately. 

And the one thing that does often come up – and this is what I wanted to ask you about – is the perceived quality of the vehicle sometimes gets referenced by people who are looking for things to criticise. They point out, for example, “Are the DEKRA checks really that independent?” I’ve had my own experience, looking at cars from WeBuyCars, versus other dealers, which I’ll share after you answer this question. But from your perspective, how do you protect the customers, and how do you respond to those perceptions around quality, the relationship with DEKRA? And this is obviously very important because, at the end of the day – if you can’t sell the cars, you’re not going to be buying the next one. So, when this stuff comes up and you see people making these comments, how do you tend to address them?

Faan van der Walt: This is a great point. We want to be as transparent as we can be and upfront about the condition of every car we sell. Now, taking into consideration that we serve the whole market and the average age and kilometres of the vehicles which we buy and sell is nine years, 140,000 kilometres – there will be cars that you’ll have with issues. We really try to steer clear of cars that are unreliable cars, that could give problems, because it might break while we have it and then we sit with it.

The Finance Ghost: So, no more Land Rovers anymore, Faan? I’m assuming no more Land Rovers are coming through the doors at WeBuyCars, right?

Faan van der Walt: Look, Wynand can also elaborate that. But he implemented a loss-avoidance strategy because, from our data, we know that certain vehicles (sometimes even 40% of the time) break. I’m not going to name and shame certain brands right now or certain make-model combinations, but we just steer clear of those, or offer very low prices so that we know if this car comes in, we can repair it and we can make sure and we can cover losses if there’s an unhappy client afterwards. Those are few and far between, but the data does help.

Regarding the DEKRA test, and what I did not like about the DEKRA test, was that it’s very technical. Even for me, I sometimes couldn’t understand what the fault code is, or what the explanation is on something that might be wrong with the car. 

So, we’ve very recently launched a new brand, which is an in-house brand, called Inspectify. What Inspectify does is that it replaces the old DEKRA service or test, and we have it audited independently, because you don’t want to get a situation where someone says that you’re writing your own exam, or you’re marking your own exam. So, the independence of this brand is important to us, and I guess that time will tell whether we’re getting it right. 

But, it’s plain language and easy to understand for the average consumer. Wording things like “this is wrong”, or “that is wrong”, or “this might need attention”. But, going beyond that, also explaining what a service might cost, or what ownership costs would be for a vehicle, or even fuel consumption. We have a chatbot that Wynand’s developed on the website called Orange, that when you’re purchasing a vehicle, you can ask it, “I want to drive this vehicle from Joburg to Midrand every day. Could you tell me what fuel would cost me per month?” And it can do that for you. So, it’s quite clever technology built in there, all in an effort to serve clients better. 

So, it’s always a work in progress. The way you see WeBuyCars today is not the same as it would be in six months time. People contact me and say, “You should improve this, you should improve that,” and I say, “Yes, yes, we are busy with that. There’s a whole pipeline of development that we are busy with.”

The Finance Ghost: Yes, my tongue-in-cheek jokes about Land Rovers aside. Shame, my brother had the stereotypical Land Rover ownership experience, so I can make the joke. But there is actually a serious point behind that and this is the experience that I wanted to share why I feel good when I look at cars at WeBuyCars honestly: it’s because you actually do have that level of disclosure. 

So, we all know that some cars are more reliable than others without going brand by brand – it’s obvious, you can Google the stats and you can see for yourself. Reputations are what they are for a reason. There’s a reason why people buy white Toyotas and there’re reasons why people take risks on red things from Italy sometimes, or green things from Britain. And you’ve got to just understand what you’re buying and why you’re buying it. I think that’s the overarching point. And that’s what I’ve always liked about those reports: you understand what you’re getting at the price point you’re getting it. 

That car that I referenced earlier, that 2015 that I bought, that was an absolute “you know what” straight out of the box – it was a Kia. It was the one time in my life that I bought a sensible car and it was a Kia and it was a reputational disaster and just unforgivable. 

And so, it just shows – it doesn’t matter which brand you buy. They are machines, they have lots and lots of different components. Something can go wrong. It is what it is. And I think if you’ve got the data, if you’ve got the clarity of the report, then that actually helps a lot. Because also my experience of buying from supposedly really good dealers – and someone in my family had this experience very recently buying from a dealer up north, which I will not name. It was definitely not WeBuyCars. You buy something, you think it’s fine, but you’re not getting the detailed report that comes with it and then the problems start. 

Now, if you’re lucky, the dealer will behave well. And maybe they will do what they are supposed to do by law and sort it out, etcetera, etcetera – but it’s a fight. You might have bought that car from somewhere else in the country, depending on what it is and where. It’s just an unpleasant experience. 

That’s the one thing I really like with the WeBuyCars model: at least you know, day one, you’re buying this thing – it has problems or it doesn’t, but at least you’ve got the grading system. You can then budget accordingly for “how much money do I need to spend on this thing or not” and so I guess that’s part of it. It’s actually just transparency. It’s not about saying, “Of the many, many, many thousands of cars that we sell, every single one is perfect.” No, that’s not your business model. I think that your business model is to say, “You’ll understand what you’re buying.” That’s really the point, right?

Faan van der Walt: 100%. We’ve simplified that by grading it and indicating which cars we deem as roadworthy and ready to use versus something that’s “take a note of point XYZ” – which could be as simple as, “Listen, it needs a set of tyres and windscreen wipers.” To a more serious thing, like an oil leak, that could range in cost of repair. But it’s all disclosed there. 

The next step for us would be to also help the customer in understanding how much it would cost to repair those repairs, which is something which we hope to implement in the year to come.

The Finance Ghost: Faan, that certainly does sound interesting. I can imagine a world in which you can say to your customer, “Here’s the estimated cost to fix.” I like that. I can already see the partnerships coming through of who might be fixing it and what the economics of that might look like. Again, the shareholder in me is quite pleased to hear that. 

I’m going to flick back to Wynand now, because as we talk about the economics of the business and value-added stuff – that’s just a hypothetical example for now at least, what would it cost to fix. There are other value-added things that you’re doing in the business that are happening today, and that’s stuff like financing, for example, and other things. The scale that WeBuyCars has achieved now – you are an incredible distribution arm for products. 

I looked at EasyEquities / Purple Group this past week and I spoke to the CEO there, Charles Savage, and talked about how strong that business is now, from a distribution perspective. They have over a million active accounts. They’re like this dripping roast for financial services product providers wanting to get to their user base. And I can mention them here, of course, they don’t compete with you in the slightest, but I almost see similarities. You’re both disruptors, I’m a shareholder in both – for actually very similar reasons. And if I look at your business now, this huge number of cars going through the system, again, very strong distribution, understanding of your customers – that becomes a really powerful distribution-type business. 

So, Wynand, from your perspective, and I guess the data ties in here beautifully as well: What is that second gross opportunity, as I understand they call it in the industry (if I’m getting it wrong, tell me)? It’s the opportunity for car dealers to make more than just the initial gross margin. The basic, “I bought a car for R100,000, I sold it for R110,000.

 What do all those other opportunities look like and how are you responding to them?

Wynand Beukes: So Ghost, that’s a very significant line on our income statement, our “second gross”, and it’s all about the distribution, like you mentioned. We finance about 20% of our vehicles of our total full stockholding per month, and that’s just north of about 2,700 vehicles per month that we finance. And then we get income from the banks on that – they call it a Variable Incentive Commission and a Dealer Incentive Commission for every finance transaction. That had a great impact on our income statement this year. We grew that by 14.5% in FY25, which we are very proud of. And on top of those finance deals, around 2,700 a month on average, we sell product as well. We average just over three products per every finance deal. 

If you talk about opportunities in WeBuyCars and how to grow that second gross income line, as well documented, we’re aiming to do around 23,000 vehicles by FY28. And, if we maintain that 20% penetration on finance deals, our second gross line will be significant in 2028. So, very excited about that. 

We do a lot of work to make sure that we get financeable vehicles as one of our big sales channels and we use data for that. How do we use our models to get the probability of finance? Because we have different channels to the floor for a vehicle and we use probabilities. We see that this is a very good financeable vehicle and we want it on the floor, then we’ll channel that vehicle to the floor rather than sell it on auction, for example. Because that gives you the opportunity to get second gross income and sell more product. So, we keep a close eye on that and we will monitor that and grow that with the business as we scale.

The Finance Ghost: Yes fantastic, this is really interesting. Faan, I think let’s talk about the expansion of the trading space. Because, at the end of the day, you need space to sell cars and get your second gross and all these other wonderful things. 

WeBuyCars very much started in busy urban areas, which makes a lot of sense, and I think you’ve found a lot of interesting ways to grow in more outlying areas. You’ve got those buying pods, you’ve got other innovations, you’ve built out a national footprint in quite small towns as well, for a business built for churn. That’s why you’ve got to be where the people are, and then you’ve got to be careful when you expand beyond that, that you don’t go and build out space that doesn’t achieve the throughput that you need it to achieve.

So, from your perspective (especially since you’ve been there since literally the beginning), how has that expansion capex thinking changed over time? What are some of the typical things that you consider now when you are adding space to your business?

Faan van der Walt: It’s a great topic and we talk about this a lot, internally. We don’t use specialists to tell us, “Oh, you’ve got to go and open a branch in Kimberley.” By the way, I’m thinking of it – I was there over the weekend and it’s a very lively town. We look at various things: the sourcing potential, the logistics efficiency. We didn’t have a pod in Springbok for a long while because it was terrible to get cars from there to the nearest supermarket. We do clever things, like when we rolled out our pods nationally, we looked at where all the Toyota dealerships were. Because that’s a very good indicator of enough economic activity to sell Toyotas there, and that means there’s used vehicles there and we’d love to buy them.

The business is like a two-sided coin: you’ve got the buying side and the selling side. So, the buying we do all over the country. And that’s mainly by placing buying pods in strategic locations all over, so that when whoever wants to sell their vehicle, they can have the service straight away. And then, when it comes to the larger warehouses, we have smaller ones and bigger ones. Most recently we opened Rustenburg in October last year. It’s doing really well, selling around 400-plus cars per month. More recently, we opened the Vereeniging branch a few months ago and that really surprised me. The demand and how well it did since inception.

And then, looking forward, still this year we are going to open two really big supermarkets: one being in Lansdowne in Cape Town and the other being in Montana, Pretoria North. Now, these branches are mega branches. They will both probably be our second biggest, next to the Dome, and those are in the big metros. So, we believe that there is still a lot of growth for us to be had in the big metros. We’re not veering into the more rural areas because we feel we are being saturated in the big provinces – no, not at all. For us, these two big branches generate space that is desperately needed and it will help us to sell more stock where they are needed. But that’s it. We are also looking at Witbank, or eMalahleni – we’ll open there probably February or March. Also sizeable, enough space for around 500 cars – so could potentially sell 500 cars.

So, yeah, slowly but surely we are expanding the footprint. I would have loved to have been able to open one of these two big branches earlier this year. It certainly would have helped us, because we were buying cars at such a pace that our stock levels went over 100% which also influences your pricing decisions. 

It’s a disciplined process going through that. We don’t open just because we are cost-conscious. We’re looking for the right deals in the right places. By way of example: Bloemfontein. I’ve been wanting to open in Bloem for two years now. We are getting there, but we just haven’t found the right deal, because we are cost-conscious when it comes to how much it’s going to cost per vehicle you’re selling there. We’d love to sit at below R1,000 a vehicle. In some of the most expensive locations, we’re north of R1,500. But, we’d rather veer away from going into a very costly lease just for the sake of having the footprint. It’s got to make sense and pay its way.

The Finance Ghost: Faan, I heard you say Rustenburg there a year ago, which means that you basically called the platinum cycle. Which is incredible. Because no one knew when platinum was going to start rallying, and you called it; you opened in Rustenburg. Is this what’s happening here? Is Wynand being set up to take over from you so that you can go and run platinum mines and try to get the platinum cycle right – is that what’s next?

Faan van der Walt: No, just at look at where we are opening and look at what industries are there and just back them, and then you’re going to become filthy rich (laughing).

The Finance Ghost: There we go! He makes it sound so easy, Wynand. Does he always make everything sound so easy? Capex included?

Wynand Beukes: I think just something I want to add onto what Faan has been saying: apart from the selling opportunities with expanding your footprint that enhances and elevates our buying process, is buying as well. As soon as you put down a warehouse in some location somewhere, you just buy more vehicles there, as well. It’s a great billboard. We’re looking forward to Montana, Lansdowne opening, and looking forward to how many cars we are going to buy there as well. Consumers like going to the warehouses to sell their vehicles. So yes, we are very excited about that coming at the end of the year.

The Finance Ghost: Yes, one of the great learnings there for me was just splitting the buying and the selling. I think that’s so clever. There is a Toyota dealer, there is enough activity, there will be cars for us to buy, even if we can sell them somewhere else. Very cool.

And that leads nicely into the last question that I want to ask you. It’s a fun one. It’s very much based on – so of my two best mates in the world, both are car guys (that’s essentially how we all met) and one of them at one point sold WeBuyCars this beautiful classic Jaguar. And I was genuinely astounded at the price which he got from WeBuyCars for this Jag. I thought to myself, “Wow, okay. Good luck, WeBuyCars, I’m not so sure how this is going to go.” 

And that made me wonder, on a serious note though: is the business model that absolutely every single car must make a set profit? Or do you have exceptions where you say, “Hang on. Actually, having a 1950-something Jaguar in the entrance of this large supermarket kind of gives a pretty interesting impression as people walk in.” Because I have noticed – maybe I’m speaking for the one near where I live, which is the Richmond branch – every time I go there, I get to see this row of just very nice cars near the door. It feels like the pretty stuff is in front, and it doesn’t feel like an accident. So, as a fun question to finish, I really wanted to understand: Is there a “prettiness factor” in the pricing model?

Faan van der Walt: Well look, it is deliberate. We certainly love interesting cars, but we are still a disciplined business and so every car must also make commercial sense, too. That said, unique cars do add energy to the floor and it does create a destination experience. Especially in upmarket areas – people love walking the floors with their family, so it has to be interesting. 

No, we won’t overpay for them, but you might not make the same profit that you would on a quick turner. So, some of these do take long to sell, but I love them. I love old cars. I’ve got my own collection as well, so it’s not done purely for decoration.

The Finance Ghost: No, I can believe that it is a bit of both. That was kind of my expectation. That there was an element of, even if you just break even on that one, the fact that so many people would walk in and look at it and talk about it and take a photo of it and, “Wow, do you know I saw this thing at WeBuyCars and it was so nice.” It does actually help with the brand, so I think it is the right play.

I think that’s about as much time as we have for this discussion. It’s really been super fun. Faan, Wynand, thank you so much for your time. I’ve really enjoyed it. I remain a happy shareholder. I know that the latest results, you know, the market’s had some views on digging into the numbers – go and take a look. But for me personally, I think the strategy is still very sound. Businesses don’t go up in a straight line every single year at exactly the same percentage on exactly every item on the income statement. The only way you’ll ever believe that is if you’ve never run a business yourself. 

It’s been an incredibly impressive story to build WeBuyCars in the way that you have. All the best for the coming year, 2026. I hope to do another one of these with you at some point. And thank you for making time for the Ghost Mail audience on this podcast.

Faan van der Walt: Thank you, Ghost. Great speaking to you!

Wynand Beukes: Thank you, Ghost. It was an honour. Thanks.

Ghost Bites (BHP | CMH | Goldrush | KAP | Labat | Richemont)

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The English High Court has weighed in on BHP’s Fundão disaster in Brazil (JSE: BHG)

There are still many years to go in court

The horrific Fundão disaster in 2015 is one of the biggest environmental disasters in the history of Brazil. And aside from all the toxic waste, online reports note that 19 lives were lost.

The families of the victims will live with that pain forever. As for BHP and Vale, joint venture partners in Samarco, they are living with it in court a decade later. It seems as though they still aren’t done with the legal stuff, as the English High Court has now thrown its weight behind the claims.

Despite BHP arguing that the court action in England was duplicative of the remediation and compensation that already occurred in Brazil, the English High Court found that BHP is liable as a polluter under Brazilian environmental law and the Brazilian civil code, rather than under Brazilian corporate law.

Look, I’m no lawyer and this is clearly highly technical stuff. Essentially, there are trials scheduled for 2026 – 2027 that will establish whether the losses claimed by the claimants were caused by the dam failure. There might need to be a third stage of the trial in 2028 (or later) based on individual claimants.

Interestingly, of the 610,000 people who were already compensated in Brazil, 240,000 of them are also in the UK claimant group and they have provided releases for related claims. The English High Court has upheld the validity of those releases.

BHP notes that cash outflows related to Samarco are still expected to be $2.2 billion in FY26 and $0.5 billion in FY27. The provision on the balance sheet was $5.8 billion as at June 2025 and has now decreased to $5.5 billion. But by BHP’s own admission, material changes to this provision are possible based on how the court action moves forward.

Purely wearing a financial hat for a moment, the market hates anything that looks like a share price overhang. With a market cap of nearly R2.4 trillion though, this provision isn’t exactly going to sink the company.


CMH gets ready to repurchase up to 15% of its shares in issue (JSE: CMH)

This is a strong positive signal from management

Although there has been a significant change in the market share across leading automotive brands in South Africa, groups like CMH have managed to position themselves for a successful response to the shift towards new Chinese and Indian vehicles. In fact, the prevalence of these affordable vehicles in local showrooms is why new car sales look so good!

This has given management the confidence to move forward with a massive share repurchase of up to 15% of shares in issue. This deals with the excess cash on the balance sheet and sends a message to the market that the directors think the shares are attractive at their current price.

Due to liquidity constraints on the local market and a wish to avoid reducing the free float, the share repurchase is being structured as an offer to all shareholders on a voluntary pro-rata basis. Up to 15% of each shareholder’s shares can be sold to the company for R35.50 per share. The current share price is just over R37, so this offer is likely to only appeal to large institutional holders who struggle to monetise their stakes due to lack of liquidity in the market.

Here’s the really interesting thing: no over-elections will be allowed, which simply means that shareholders cannot sell more than 15% of their shares back to the company at this price. In other words, we don’t know what the final percentage of total shares in issue will be, but in all likelihood it will be significantly less than 15% as not every shareholder will accept the offer (partially or in full).


Don’t let the big drop in HEPS at Goldrush fool you – the operating performance is actually flat (JSE: GRSP)

The base period included a huge accounting distortion that removes comparability

I’m very grateful that we have HEPS as a performance measure in South Africa, although I noted some very concerning recent commentary from the JSE around potentially dropping it. I know that people from the JSE read Ghost Bites, so my message here is clear: please don’t do that! HEPS is a wonderful thing.

But even HEPS doesn’t capture all of the potential accounting distortions that can make one period less comparable to another. Goldrush is a prime example, as a change in accounting policy from investment holding company to consolidated accounts led to a huge unwind in the deferred tax provision in the prior period. This boosted prior period HEPS by 107.9 cents per share to 113.77 cents.

If we strip that out, we are left with 5.87 cents in HEPS. This means that HEPS for the six months to September of 7.13 cents reflects growth of over 21%, instead of a decline of 94%!

You’ll note that I described the earnings as “flat” though, so how does that align with a 21% increase in HEPS? The answer lies in operating profit, which increased by less than 0.2%. The boost to HEPS came from an increase in interest income and a dip in finance expenses, along with a decrease in the weighted average number of shares in issue.

If we dig into the business, the Bingo division was good for 5% growth in gross gaming revenue. With online gaming being a disruptive force in the industry, the group is implementing cost reductions to allow for the uninspiring growth in in-person gaming. Interestingly, despite Limited Payout Machines increasing revenue by just 4% vs. a 10% increase in the number of active machines, the group is happy to keep rolling these machines out. Ultimately, it all comes down to return on capital and where they can find efficient growth.

Sports betting stores seem to be bearing the brunt of online gaming, with existing retail stores suffering an 11% decline in revenue. Conversely, gross gaming revenue in the online business was up 23%. This comes at the cost of marketing spend in this hugely competitive environment. Interestingly, Goldrush notes that current regulations are due a refresh in response to how this industry has developed.

In case you’re wondering, Goldrush has provided funding of R92 million to Sizekhaya, the consortium that won the National Lottery licence. They expect to achieve sign-off on the operations and tech well ahead of the 1 June 2026 start date. This funding is being capitalised at the moment, not expensed. There are two court challenges in progress at the moment in relation to the award of this licence.

This is an interesting time for the company. There’s plenty to keep them busy, ranging from online gaming (both an opportunity and a threat) through to the National Lottery.


KAP is selling Unitrans Africa as part of the group turnaround strategy (JSE: KAP)

They simply cannot afford to own underperforming businesses

KAP has had a terrible time recently, with the share price down more than 60% over three years. With Frans Olivier stepping up from CFO to CEO, they will be keen to take the necessary actions to stem the bleeding and get the share price on a positive trajectory.

One such example is the sale of Unitrans Swazi Holdings to Freight-X, the company’s existing partner based in Eswatini. Unitrans is getting out of almost everything in that country, retaining exposure to only their agricultural operations.

The price is R138 million plus various vehicles and balance sheet adjustments. Based on 30 June numbers, it would come to around R214 million. The majority of the purchase price would be settled immediately, with around R41 million being due 95 days after the effective date.

The loss after tax in this business for the year to June 2025 was R1 million, so KAP is doing the right thing by unlocking proceeds that Unitrans can then use to fund capex related to the replacement of existing assets. There’s a nasty knock to the income statement on the way out though, as the net assets were carried at R253 million. This means a loss on disposal of around R39 million based on the latest estimated value of the deal.

The old adage in finance is that your first loss is your best loss. In other words: get out of something early and just take the pain before it gets any worse. Given the broader pressures on KAP, this deal seems sensible to me.


Labat Africa bounces between buyers of their cannabis assets (JSE: LAB)

It seems that “buy low, sell high” is harder than it looks

I have to get those cannabis puns in while I can, as Labat Africa won’t hold these assets for much longer. The Labat Healthcare segment was initially planned to be sold to All Trading, a related party, but that deal fell through in October. Then, a company named 64P Investments appeared and entered into a binding agreement for those assets.

“Binding” seems to mean different things to different people, as 64P Investments has subsequently withdrawn from the deal and it has been terminated. This left Labat Africa without a buyer once more, so they went back to All Trading and knocked on their door.

In the third attempt to sell this thing, the price is R23 million and it would be settled through partial settlement of existing loan amounts due to the related parties. This price is in line with the terms that were agreed with 64P Investments. Amazingly, the profit for the business was R17.5 million and independent valuations previously indicated a value of R15 million to R17 million. You won’t often see a P/E multiple below 1x!

Ultimately, shareholders are just looking for a deal that gets these assets off the balance sheet. Labat has made acquisitions in the IT space and is a completely different company these days, so the sooner this distraction is over, the better.

As this is a related party transaction that is material in size to the company, a shareholder vote will be required. An independent expert has been appointed to provide an opinion and a circular will be sent out as soon as possible.


Richemont accelerated in the second quarter (JSE: CFR)

The share price reflects the much stronger recent performance

Richemont’s share price has been on a charge recently, pushing towards the 52-week high. The share price is up roughly 30% from the lows in August, driven by a much stronger performance in the three months to September (the second quarter of the year). It’s incredible to see a company of this size bounce around like this:

To be fair, it’s been quite the year, with extreme global trade disruptions and nobody being sure what the impact might be on consumers. In the results for the six months to September, Richemont has sent a clear message that people are still buying luxury products – and at an accelerating rate.

Sales growth was 10% in constant rates and 5% in actual rates, with relative euro strength blunting the reported growth. Operating profit was up 24% in constant rates, so there’s a lovely margin expansion story here.

Jewellery Maisons led the way, with sales up 14% in constant rates. 17% growth in the second quarter reflects the acceleration that the market is excited about. This segment runs at 32.8% operating margin and the group margin is much lower at 22.2%, so brace yourself for what is coming next to make those numbers possible.

Specialist Watchmakers experienced a drop in sales of 2% for the period, although they were at least up 3% in the second quarter. Operating margin was just 3.2%, which is why the group margin is so much lower than the jewellery business. Although the Swiss watches are being affected by tariffs, it seems as though the Americas were still the best source of growth for this business. Soft demand in China was a problem.

As for the “Other” bucket, sales were up 2% for the six months and 6% in the second quarter, but it still reported an operating loss.

Diluted HEPS increased by around 5.2%, so it’s not exactly a strong growth story. The market was just happy to see improvement in the trajectory, even if there’s a very long way to go in the Specialist Watchmakers business in particular.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Old Mutual (JSE: OMU), Jurie Strydom, bought shares worth R10 million. Separately, the company announced that a share plan with a capped value of R300 million is being put in place for Strydom. Alignment doesn’t get much better than this: the vesting of shares is based entirely on share price appreciation!
    • An associate of the CFO of 4Sight Holdings (JSE: 4SI) bought shares worth R334k.
    • An associate of the CEO of Grand Parade Investments (JSE: GPI) bought shares worth R67k.
  • Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) announced the acquisition of a portfolio of 20 Carrefour supermarkets in France through a sale and leaseback transaction. The total price is €123 million at an attractive net initial yield of 6.6%. As a sign of the times for retailers (and their landlords), these properties have an omnichannel focus and thus affordable average rents as they aren’t necessarily in prime locations in terms of footfall. This takes the REIT’s total Carrefour exposure to 46 stores, or 10% of the gross asset value.
  • Cilo Cybin (JSE: CCC) announced that for the six months to September 2025, the headline loss per share will be between 138.30 cents and 138.48 cents vs. HEPS of 0.87 cents in the comparable period. This is because of the significant once-off expenses related to the acquisition of Cilo Cybin Pharmaceutical that was effective only at the end of September 2025.
  • Eastern Platinum (JSE: EPS) has very limited liquidity in its stock, so the results for the third quarter of 2025 will only get a passing mention down here. Revenue for the quarter was up 24.5% year-on-year, but for the nine months they are down 13.6%. Despite the higher revenue for the quarter, they still incurred a mine operating loss of $0.2 million. The year-to-date numbers look terrible on that metric, with an operating loss of $4.6 million vs. operating income of $8.7 million in the comparable period. The reason is that the company ceased the chrome retreatment operations and focused instead on underground operations at the Crocodile River Mine. The future of the business lies in PGM concentrate sales to Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP).
  • Rex Trueform (JSE: RTO) and African and Overseas Enterprises (JSE: AOO) announced that the profit warranty related to the 51.02% investment in Byte Orbit has fallen away by mutual agreement with the sellers of the shares. The parties attribute this to a change in the commercial basis of the investment that makes the profit warranty no longer applicable.

A succulent crime story

How did a lockdown hobby turn into an ecological emergency? In the stillness of the Karoo, poachers aren’t after gold or ivory, but thumb-sized succulents so coveted that entire species are vanishing into the black market.

Under the cover of darkness, illicit cargo moves across South Africa’s borders. Stashed in boxes and stuffed into car trunks, these stolen trophies will soon be bound for Asia, where they will be snapped up in no time at extravagant prices. They’re not jewels or ivory or rhino horn, but they might as well be. Each of these thumb-sized plants represents one of millions stolen from the wild, smuggled across borders, and sold into the booming black market for succulents.

They don’t look dangerous or even that valuable. Some resemble tiny aloes or miniature grapes, while others look like pebbles with freckles. But these “living stones” – species like Conophytum and Lithops – have become the unlikely stars of an international plant craze that has stripped parts of South Africa’s Succulent Karoo bare.

Over the past six years, these tiny desert plants have been dug up by the millions, pushing several species to the brink of extinction and exposing a conservation crisis that’s as unexpected as it is devastating.

The desert that blooms

Drive through it, and the Succulent Karoo looks like nothing more than a barren landscape baking under a merciless sun. But walk through it – or better yet, get down on your hands and knees – and the desert transforms into something else entirely. Between the sand and stones is one of the most biologically rich arid regions on Earth, containing around 6,350 plant species (that we know of), about 2,500 of which are found nowhere else. In spring, it erupts into carpets of yellow, pink, orange, and white blossoms. It’s also home to the world’s smallest tortoise, the Speckled Padloper, and an array of insects found nowhere else.

This is a landscape built on subtlety and survival. Plants here have evolved into extraordinary shapes, bulbous and camouflaged, to conserve water and hide from grazing animals. Ironically, those same adaptations that give them their distinctive appearance are what make them so desirable to collectors in Asia, Europe, and the United States.

The making of the succulent underworld

Global interest in succulents isn’t exactly a new thing. Plant enthusiasts and collectors from the United States, Europe and Asia have been digging up small numbers of succulents and sneaking them home in their luggage for as long as anyone can remember. Locals soon took notice, and in an effort to meet the clear demand (and to stop tourists from digging around in the desert), nurseries started propagating and selling a wide variety of species from the Succulent Karoo. It is these same nursery owners who first blew the whistle when they noticed a change in consumer appetites. 

The turning point came around 2018, when demand among collectors in East Asia exploded into full-blown mania. Chinese and South Korean “plantfluencers” began posting photos of Conophytum species, positioning them as rare treasures from the African desert. In no time, demand outpaced supply. At the peak of succulent madness, a single Conophytum cluster could sell for the price of a new smartphone. South African nurseries simply couldn’t keep up – a problem exacerbated by the fact that mature succulents can take up to seven years to grow from seed.

By 2020, nurseries were practically empty and entire populations of Conophytum were being wiped out in the wild – but the worst was still to come. When the world shut down due to the Covid-19 pandemic, millions of people – stuck at home and staring at screens – discovered the joy of houseplants. Instagram and TikTok flooded with photos of “living stones,” and the #succulent tag sprouted an entire digital subculture. People had more time and less purpose. Looking to fill the void, many sought out something alive that they could care for. Interesting little plants felt like a way to connect with the outside world.

Organised crime syndicates spotted the opportunity. Using local intermediaries, they hired teams of poachers (often unemployed locals desperate for income) to scour the desert. Within months, the Succulent Karoo became a feeding ground for smuggling operations that stretched from small towns like Springbok to the ports of Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Between 2019 and 2024, South African authorities seized 1.6 million illegally harvested succulents – and that’s probably just the tip of the iceberg. The true number could be several times higher. At least eight species of Conophytum are now considered “functionally extinct,” which means that a small number may still survive in the wild, but there are too few to sustain the species’ population or to fulfill their previous role in their ecosystem. As of 2019, all Conophytum species have been reclassified in higher IUCN Red List threat categories.

The many holes in the net

Law enforcement has struggled to keep up with this plant poaching problem. A big part of the issue is that the Succulent Karoo stretches for hundreds of thousands of square kilometres (from Southwestern Namibia through the Northern Cape and into the Western Cape), and that vast expanse is patrolled by only a handful of officers. The local Stock Theft and Endangered Species Unit in Springbok has managed a few major busts, sometimes intercepting smugglers with carloads of boxed plants. But for every successful raid, thousands more plants slip through undetected.

Bureaucracy makes things even more complicated. Conservation laws differ from province to province, and enforcement depends on which side of an invisible border you’re standing on. In one province, collecting a certain species is a crime; in another, it isn’t.

Even when raids are successful and plants are confiscated, most can’t be returned to the wild. Their original locations (which they’ve specifically adapted to live in) are unknown, and those that are nursed back to health in greenhouses often go “soft”, losing their ability to handle harsh desert conditions. Two experimental replanting efforts have ended in heartbreak. Against all odds, the succulents survived – until poachers returned and stole them again.

The poachers themselves are rarely hardened criminals. They’re usually unemployed locals – out-of-season farmworkers, miners, or young men looking for quick cash. They earn a fraction of what the plants sell for overseas, but when they’re caught, they are given fines that destroy them financially. It’s a bleak calculation: a day’s work digging up little plants might earn enough to feed a family for a week, or it might lead to arrest, legal debt, and a permanent criminal record. And through it all, the kingpins stay untouched.

This is the moral tangle of the succulent crisis. None of us condone smuggling or habitat destruction, but the thorny truth is that protecting the desert often means punishing the poor. We expect people to value biodiversity, but when they can’t feed their families, it doesn’t feel like a fair trade.

The market cools – temporarily

Fortunately, there are small signs of change. In 2023, seizures of Conophytum plants dropped sharply, and by 2024, they had almost ceased. Prices in Asian markets have also fallen as commercial growers began producing their own stock. Some experts believe the craze has simply moved on – like all fads eventually do – to the next exotic collectible. But conservationists warn against complacency. Today it’s Conophytum. Tomorrow it could be another genus. 

As long as rarity equals value, the Karoo will never be safe. The tragedy of the succulent poaching crisis is almost philosophical. These plants evolved to survive drought, heat, and isolation. What they can’t survive is attention. For centuries, they hid in plain sight, thriving precisely because no one noticed them. Now, their survival depends on the opposite: being noticed enough to be protected, but not so adored that they’re collected into oblivion.

South Africa’s 2022 anti-poaching strategy includes community education and conservation outreach, but awareness alone can’t undo the economics driving the trade. Legal nurseries can’t meet demand quickly enough, and policies often arrive after the damage is done. In the end, the battle over these tiny plants isn’t just about biodiversity – it’s about how the global appetite for beauty and novelty turns fragile ecosystems into commodities.

A future in the balance

Walk through a greenhouse of confiscated succulents and you’ll see rows upon rows of rescued plants. Tens of thousands of tiny living things, each one stolen, now waiting for a home they may never return to. They’re tended by scientists and volunteers who know that most will never see the desert again.

Their labels tell a sombre story of modern extinction: Conophytum acutum, Conophytum pageae, Conophytum obcordellum. Some are already gone in the wild. Others teeter on the edge of extinction. 

They don’t trumpet like elephants or charge like rhinos. They don’t bleed when cut from the ground. But they are part of South Africa’s living heritage, one that is vanishing not with a bang, but with a shovel and a box.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Brait | Cell C | Italtile | Premier – RFG Holdings | Sanlam)

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At Brait, Virgin Active’s EBITDA has gotten much closer to “maintainable EBITDA” (JSE: BAT)

And Premier is of course doing very well (JSE: PMR)

Summer bodies are warming up in South Africa and the beach is calling. In months gone by, the same was true in the Northern Hemisphere. With Brait reporting strong growth in revenue across the UK, South Africa, Italy and the APAC territories at Virgin Active, they are happy to assist you with those beach abs in many countries.

Jokes aside, these are encouraging numbers for both the business and the general health of humanity. South Africa led the way with revenue growth of 15% for the six months to September, with APAC up next at 13%. The UK grew by 12% and Italy by 7%. These numbers were good enough for EBITDA to grow to £112 million in the last twelve months.

Now here’s the interesting thing: Brait has been valuing its investment in Virgin Active based on maintainable EBITDA of £120 million and has left this unchanged despite the growth. That’s because EBITDA has now caught up (mostly) to the company’s view on maintainable EBITDA. This is encouraging, but the market still needs to stomach the forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.25x that Brait applies to the stock. This is a 15% discount to the peer average, but it still feels a bit spicy unless they can continue with these levels of growth.

As an aside, capex at Virgin Active jumped from £58 million in 2024 to £96 million in 2025. I am very sure that my local gym got just about none of that.

Premier (JSE: PMR) is separately listed these days and doing very well, so there’s no need to go into much detail there. Brait does of course reference Premier’s planned merger with RFG Holdings (JSE: RFG) and the resultant diversification of the product mix. As I’ll continue to point out (and as you’ll read further down), diversification is always good for portfolios and not always good for corporates.

At New Look in the UK, revenue is still hard to find. It fell 2% for the six months, while EBITDA increased by 34% to £21 million. They are assessing “strategic options” for the business.

Based on the latest valuations, Virgin Active is 62% of Brait’s total assets, while Premier is 32.3% and New Look is just 3%. The company’s latest indication is that Virgin Active will be separately listed by 2027, a delay of the previous guidance of late 2026.


The Cell C offer is officially open (JSE: CCD)

Blu Label has also released details on the Black Ownership plan (JSE: BLU)

In a year that has seen a resurgence in the telcos (thanks mostly to improved macroeconomics in Africa), Cell C is finally coming to market. This should lead to a much cleaner balance sheet for Blu Label that will be easier to understand.

The raising is expected to have gross proceeds of up to R6.5 billion, including an allocation of shares worth around R2.4 billion to an empowerment vehicle. They need to do a fair bit of structuring to make sure that they have at least 30% Black Ownership once they are separately listed. This includes the Blu Label subsidiary selling between 5% and 20% of the shares to the B-BBEE investment entity, with the price left on loan account and settled through dividends over time and the sale of shares. We’ve seen this type of structure a zillion times before in South Africa. If you want to dig into the full details of how it works, Blu Label released a separate announcement on it.

As I pointed out recently when Cell C released its intention to float announcement, the group is more than just the capital-light MVNO model that gets all the attention. They also have 7.57 million mobile subscribers, with prepaid customers making up 89% of that base. This is a core part of the business that doesn’t get much attention, as the market tends to focus on Cell C’s majority market share in the MVNO space (13 of the 23 in the country are Cell C clients).

On a pro-forma basis (i.e. with adjustments for the mix of businesses that will be in the standalone listed group), revenue for the year ended May was R13.7 billion and EBITDA was R3.7 billion. Capex intensity at 5.7% (capex divided by revenue) is certainly a leaner model than most telcos out there. But with a capital-light model comes a different set of risks: less control over the core enablers of the business.

Here’s an excerpt from the pre-listing statement (which is 464 pages long!) that sets out perhaps the biggest risk:

The pre-listing statement includes a detailed look at the risks and opportunities of the business. As with all things in life, there are pros and cons to every business model.

It’s great to see another listing on the JSE and I hope that it will be a success!


Italtile off to a tough start this year (JSE: ITE)

Weak demand and margin pressure have continued

At the AGM, Italtile gave an update on trade from July to October. They managed retail growth of just 2% in an environment of constrained consumer spending, although I must also note that we’ve seen some decent numbers from other consumer discretionary businesses. The issue seems to relate more to pricing than volumes, with deflationary pressures in an environment of oversupply in the market. This would explain why an uptick in demand isn’t translating into strong revenue growth.

Full credit to Italtile: they’ve been warning the market about the supply imbalance for as long as I can remember. It’s precisely why I prefer Cashbuild (JSE: CSB) in the sector at the moment, as they don’t have a manufacturing arm.

You see, the real issue is that the manufacturing business is highly dependent on achieving decent throughput (due to the high fixed costs), something that is hard to achieve when there is oversupply. With group systemwide turnover down 1% for the period and overall costs up 1%, the situation looks painful for profitability.


Premier and RFG Holdings release the joint circular for their merger (JSE: PMR | JSE: RFG)

I remain worried about this deal

Corporate mergers can be like romantic relationships: sometimes, two things simply don’t belong together, even if they are each lovely.

The FMCG sector is full of examples of consolidation plays that didn’t work out. The Kraft Heinz merger is widely regarded as Warren Buffett’s worst ever transaction. The playbook was to consolidate operations and cut costs. After all, if the underlying business focuses on food, then does it really matter which food? It turned out that yes, it does matter.

If you consider Premier and RFG, then you have one company with a focus on consumer staples and the other with a focus on consumer discretionary food. Not all food categories are created equal. Put differently: you need bread in your basket more than you need canned peaches.

They also have completely different supply and demand pressures. At Premier, it’s about being as efficient as possible to grind out better margins from products that are in hugely competitive environments. After all, can you think of anything more competitive than bread? At RFG, their numbers are impacted by exogenous factors like global supply of deciduous fruit. Their numbers are almost guaranteed to be more volatile.

Now, the rationale for putting these two companies together is based on increased scale, a more diversified offering and greater category reach for Premier. Sure, all of that may be true on paper, but Tiger Brands (JSE: TBS) tried a similar strategy and we know how that ended. The recent improvement at Tiger Brands has been based on their discipline in figuring out where they have a right to win and then selling everything else.

If the scheme of arrangement is successful and the deal goes ahead, then I hope it works out and they create a better group thanks to the merger. There’s a lot at stake here, particularly at Premier and the role it plays in delivering basic food to consumers.

The deal is structured as a share-for-share transaction based on 1 Premier share for every 7 RFG shares. The reference prices are R22 per RFG share and R154 per Premier share. This represents a premium of 37.5% to the 30-day VWAP of RFG shares (measured up to the date of release of the firm intention announcement).

In my opinion, RFG shareholders can consider themselves lucky here. The share price was washing away and the recent numbers didn’t look great. Conversely, Premier’s numbers have been excellent. In my view, the risk is to the existing Premier shareholders. The market seems to have a different view, as the Premier share price has only gone up and up since the deal was announced. This bucks the usual trend in the market, where the acquirer’s share price usually drops after announcing a deal.


Sanlam’s core business looks good (JSE: SLM)

There’s a big change to the accounting coming soon

Sanlam released an update for the nine months to September 2025. The metrics that are familiar to investors look good, like net results from financial services up 19% on a normalised basis. This has been boosted by 13% growth in normalised group new business volumes.

There are going to be significant changes to the metrics going forwards. From 1 January 2026, they will be focusing on operating profit and adjusted headline earnings. These are going to be more volatile than the current metrics as they include full investment market movements, not just Sanlam-specific shareholder fund adjustments. The accounting for insurance businesses is very complex.

If they apply the framework that is coming soon, then actual adjusted headline earnings dipped 6% and normalised adjusted headline earnings (sigh) increased 4% in this period.

The weirdness is a result of the realities of the business model. Sanlam has an operational business that delivers financial services to clients. They also have a complicated balance sheet that does all kinds of interesting things with the funds in the insurance float and otherwise.

From what I can see, most of the operational metrics look fine at Sanlam. There are of course some areas that require management focus, like a decrease of 10% in normalised value of new business (VNB) in South Africa.

On the corporate side, they are busy with the integration of Assupol and they sound happy with the progress made on it. The final regulatory approvals are being obtained for the South African leg of the Ninety One transaction.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) is a step closer to listing its subsidiary Quantum Leap Energy. They have submitted a draft registration statement to the SEC related to the proposed IPO. They haven’t yet determined the number of shares to be offered or the price, but the wheels are in motion.
  • Brimstone (JSE: BRT | JSE: BRN) confirmed that the intrinsic NAV per share as at September 2025 is 859.8 cents, or 832.5 cents on a fully diluted basis. The current share price of R4.50 is a 45% discount to the fully diluted intrinsic NAV. This NAV has sadly decreased by 22.9% from December 2024 to September 2025 due mainly to pressure on the Oceana (JSE: OCE) share price, the largest investment at Brimstone.
  • Curro (JSE: COH) is a step closer to achieving non-profit status through the Jannie Mouton Stigting transaction. The Botswana Competition and Consumer Authority has given the green light, leaving only the South African regulator to still approve the deal.
  • Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) has confirmed that the circular for the capital raise will be released on Monday, 17 November. In the meantime, they’ve confirmed that the independent expert has opined that the debt conversion by related parties is fair to other shareholders. This opinion will of course be included in the circular.
  • Numeral (JSE: XII) is taking the necessary step of a share consolidation before they try raise up to R100 million. How close they get remains to be seen, as the raise will be only partially underwritten (around R34.5 million) by Boundryless, an existing shareholder in the company. A 10:1 consolidation will give them a better chance of raising at a sensible pricing range, as the stock currently trades at R0.02 and hence a raise at a discount would have to be at a 50% discount. The only number lower than R0.02 is R0.01! Such is life as a penny stock in every sense of the word.

South African M&A Analysis Q1 – Q3 2025

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As we hurtle toward the end of the year, the familiar rush is on to get deals over the line. It’s never an easy task, and 2025 has been no exception — with geopolitical and economic headwinds, both at home and abroad, weighing heavily on investors’ confidence and sentiment.

Looking back at the period Q1 – Q3 2025, deal activity has remained relatively consistent, showing a gradual improvement year on year, when compared with the same period in 2023 and 2024. This year’s aggregate deal value of R1,62 trillion is, however, heavily skewed by the Anglo American | Teck Resources merger, valued at R1,05 trillion (US$60 billion). Excluding this outlier, total deal value comes to R571,89 billion, up from R477,28 billion in 2024 and R344,24 billion in 2023.

Conversely, BEE deal activity continues to decline, with many of the latest announcements representing extensions of existing, often underwater, structures – symptomatic of the framework’s ongoing struggle to deliver its intended economic outcomes. It will be interesting to see whether, under the current GNU dispensation, ongoing conversations about alternative empowerment mechanisms gain meaningful traction.

Excluding the five failed transactions, 268 deals were recorded during the period, of which 40 were announced by companies with secondary inward listings on one of South Africa’s exchanges. The R50 million – R200 million value bracket once again accounted for the most deals. Sectorally, real estate continues to dominate deal flow, followed by resources and technology. South African-domiciled, exchange-listed companies were involved in 44 cross-border transactions, with Africa (13 deals), Europe and the UK (8) the most active destinations – again led by real estate and resources activity.

Companies also continued to return value to shareholders through repurchase programmes. During the first three quarters of 2025, companies repurchased R285,88 billion in shares – nearly double the comparable 2024 period – with Prosus leading the charge. The largest General Corporate Finance transaction during this time was the unbundling by Anglo American of its stake in Anglo American Platinum, valued at R96 billion.

Source: DealMakers Online

Private equity continues to consolidate its presence in the dealmaking landscape. Over the past few years, the industry has had to adapt to higher capital costs, more challenging exits, and the growing influence of AI. This has prompted a strategic pivot toward private credit, as firms diversify their offerings to provide flexible financing solutions in a high-interest environment.

DealMakers Q1 – Q3 2025 League Table – M&A activity by the top South African advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies).

DealMakers Q1 – Q3 2025 League Table – General Corporate Finance activity by the top South African advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies).

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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As part of Cell C’s listing, Blu Label Unlimited has released further details on a proposed deal which will see a 30% stake in the telecom in the hands of BEE parties. The deal, which will be vendor-funded by subsidiary The Prepaid Company (TPC), will allocate up to c.68 million shares valued at R2,4 billion to the SPV known as Sisonke which will be owned by Fordside Enterprises, Sangrilor and Nubridge Capital. Sisonke will acquire a stake of between 5% and 20% of Cell C at the offer price which is set between R29.50 and R35.50 per share. The BEE parties will be subject to a lock-up of six years. For the first 12 months after the listing, which is set for 27 November 2025, no shares may be sold but for the remaining five years of lock-up 20% of their shareholdings may be sold but only to other BEE participants.

Supermarket Income REIT has completed £40,9 million in acquisitions across two transactions at an average net initial yield of 6.4%. The first, is the acquisition of Tesco omnichannel supermarket in Craigavon, Northern Ireland at a purchase price of £25,6 million. The second acquisition is that of a portfolio of 10 Sainsbury convenience stores at a purchase price of £15,3 million. The portfolio represents the company’s entry into convenience stores.

Tiger Brands has disposed of its 74.69% shareholding in Chocolaterie Confiserie Camerounaise (Chococam) to African-focused investment firm Minkama Capital and BGFIBank (BGFI), a financial services institution headquartered in Gabon. The deal is financed through a CFA46.676 billion syndicated loan arranged by BGFI.

Pembani Remgro (Remgro joint venture) has successfully exited its investment in South African company SolarSaver, a provider of customised rooftop solar photovoltaic solutions to corporate and industrial customers in Namibia and South Africa. New investment from Inspired Evolution’s Evolution III Fund, alongside global development finance intuition partners FMO, the Dutch Entrepreneurial Development Bank and Sweden’s Development Finance Institution Swedfund, will be used to accelerate the rollout of capex-free solar power solutions for businesses across SA, Namibia, Botswana and Zambia.

The ongoing talks between ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) and the Industrial Development Corporation have been terminated. The deal which covered about R7 billion of loans and interest to AMSA was, according to reports, not considered sufficient by AMSA with the IDC not prepared to offer more.

In October 2021 Sibanye-Stillwater announced the proposed acquisition of
100% of both the Santa Rita nickel mine and the Serrote copper mine located in Brazil from affiliates of funds advised by Appian Capital Advisory. The deal was later terminated in January 2022 due to material and adverse conditions as a result of a geotechnical event. The parties have since been involved in a protracted legal dispute. A settlement agreement was announce this week with Sibanye paying US$215 million to Appian.

The RFG and Premier combined offer circular to RFG shareholders has been released. Shareholders will vote at the annual general meeting on 11 December 2025. If the scheme becomes unconditional, the trading of RFG shares will be suspended on 18 March 2026 with the delisting expected on 24 March 2026.

On 1 October 2025, the parties to the Barloworld transaction agreed to waive the Standby Offer Condition relating to the receipt of competition regulatory approval by COMESA. Shareholders had until 7 November 2025 to accept the offer. At close, NewCo had received valid acceptances of the Standby Offer in respect of 70.8% of shares in issue. This combined with the Consortium’s and Barloworld Foundation shares equates to 94.1% of the shares in issue. Upon completion of the Squeeze-Out, the shares will be suspended from trading on the JSE and A2X.

In an update on the offer to Curro shareholders by the Jannie Mouton Stigting, the deal has received unconditional approval from the Botswana Competition and Consumer Authorities. The transaction remains subject to the unconditional approval from the South African Competition Authorities.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has taken a 50% equity shareholding in PayInc, an automated clearing house and payments infrastructure company previously known as BankservAfrica. The SARB joins Absa, Access Bank, African Bank, Capitec, Citibank SA, FirstRand, Investec, Nedbank and Standard Bank as direct shareholders, establishing PayInc as the National Payment Utility.

Norfund, the Norwegian Investment Fund for developing countries, has invested US$75 million in Mulilo Energy, a South African developer of renewable energy projects and Independent Power Producer. The minority stake investment will support Mulilo’s ongoing transformation into a tier-one Independent Power Producer, with a robust near-term pipeline of 5.5 GW expected to reach final close before the end of 2027.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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According to Cell C’s prelisting statement, c.53.8% of the shares in the telecom have been offered to a select institutional investors. The offer which opened on Thursday 13 November will close on 21 November 2025. 173,4 million shares are being offered together with 9,52 million overallotment shares at a price of between R29.50 and R35.50 per share, giving the company a potential market capitalisation on the JSE of between R10 billion and R12 billion when it lists on 27 November 2025. The offer includes an allocation of up to 68 million shares valued at R2,4 billion to a BEE SPV (Sisonke) which will acquire a stake of between 5% and 20% in Cell C. The gross proceeds from the offer and the sale of the offer shares, are expected to be up to R6,5 billion. The proceeds raised will be allocated towards the settling of certain of The Prepaid Company’s (Blu Label Unlimited) interest-bearing borrowings and other debt obligations. The listing will provide Cell C with access to capital markets, to support and develop further growth of the company and to finance acquisitions and investments in businesses, technologies, services, products, software, intellectual property rights, spectrum and other assets.

Africa Bitcoin has acquired a further 0.6833 BTC for a cash consideration of R1,22 million. The group now hold 3,1949 BTC with an aggregate value of R5,81 million. The R4,05 million raised from the recent placement was used to fund the acquisition.

Delta Property Fund has disposed of its entire stake of 14,869,210 ordinary shares in Grit Real Estate Income Group at 5.45 pence per share for an aggregate sale consideration of £810,371.95. The shares were sold to Peresec Prime Brokers. The disposal is a category 2 transaction and does not require shareholder approval.

Marshall Monteagle has successfully raised US$10,7 million from shareholders via a renounceable Rights Offer. A total of 8,964,377 Rights Offer shares were offered at an issue price of $1.20/R21,35 per share in the ratio of one Rights Offer share for every four Marshall shares.

Copper 360 will on 17 November distribute the circular with details of its proposed claw-back and rights offer. The company aims to offer 280 million shares in its claw-back offer of R140 million and up to 520 million new shares at 50 cents per share raising R260 million in a rights offer. The company has obtained a fairness opinion form an independent expert confirming that the related party conversions are fair to shareholders. Results of the offer will be published on 8 December 2025.

Numeral is proposing to consolidate the company’s issued shares on a 10 to 1 basis, subject to shareholder approval. The company will then undertake a private placement of shares for cash to raise up to R100 million of which US$2 million (c.R34,5 million) will be partly underwritten by Boundryless, an existing shareholder which is owned c.$4,6 million by Numeral.

Southern Palladium will no longer seek shareholder approval to change the company’s name to Southern Platinum. The name change was proposed to reflect the diversity of the metal resources within the company’s project portfolio. However, following feedback from major shareholders the Board has decided to retain the current name.

Premier intends to commence with a general share repurchase programme in terms of the general authority granted to it by shareholders. The rationale for the share repurchase is to ensure that the Group’s capital structure remains efficiently structured, before any effects of the RFG transaction. Shares will be repurchased at a price of up to R154 per share, being the reference price in the RFG transaction.

Woolworths has repurchased 6,9 million shares at an average price per share of R51.22 for an aggregate R353,4 million since the repurchase programme commenced in September 2025.

In October 2024, Anheuser-Busch InBev announced a US$2 billion share buy-back programme to be executed within the next 12 months which will result in the repurchase of c.31,7 million shares. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 3 to 7 November 2025, the group repurchased 1,150,019 shares for €62,01 million.

On 19 February 2025, Glencore announced the commencement of a new US$1 billion share buyback programme, with the intended completion by the time of the Group’s interim results announcement in August 2025. This week the company repurchased 6,400,000 shares at an average price per share of £3.58 for an aggregate £22,9 million.

South32 continued with its US$200 million repurchase programme announced in August 2024. The shares will be repurchased over the period 12 September 2025 to 11 September 2026. This week 375,391 shares were repurchased for an aggregate cost of A$1,22 million.

The purpose of Bytes Technology’s share repurchase programme, of up to a maximum aggregate consideration of £25 million, is to reduce Bytes’ share capital. This week 547,300 shares were repurchased at an average price per share of £3.60 for an aggregate £1,97 million.

In May 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £200 million, taking the total amount to be repurchased by 31 December 2025 to £1,1 billion. The extended programme is being funded using the net proceeds of the block trade of shares in ITC to institutional investors. This week the company repurchased a further 550,000 shares at an average price of £41.93 per share for an aggregate £23,06 million.

During the period 3 to 7 November 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 902,724 Prosus shares for an aggregate €54,09 million and Naspers, a further 390,090 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R480,68 million.

Three companies issued a profit warning this week: Goldrush, RFG and RMH.

Two company issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Hulamin and Copper 360.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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The Fund for Export Development in Africa, the development equity impact investment arm of African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), announced a US$300 million strategic investment in the Africa Minerals and Metals Processing Platform (A2MP). A2MP, head-quartered in Dubai, has evolved into a diversified pan-African platform focused on mining and processing. The platform aims to unlock and scale minerals and metals value chains sustainably across the continent. The platform currently operates a pipeline of twelve mineral assets and four processing hubs, with a diversified portfolio spanning nine countries on the continent.

Nigerian Y Combinator-backed fintech, Moni, has rebranded as Rank, while also announcing two acquisitions. The company has rebranded to reflect its wider focus, with the aim of providing a broader range of services to its customers. It has also acquired AjoMoney, a leading provider of group savings solutions, and Zazzau MFB, a licensed microfinance bank that provides services such as savings, deposits and small business loans. Financial terms of the deals were not disclosed.

Tiger Brands is disposing of its majority stake in its Cameroonian subsidiary, Chococam, as part of a broader strategy to simplify its operations and focus on its core business. The company has signed a sale and purchase agreement with Minkama Capital Ltd. and anticipates the deal to be finalised in the second half of fiscal year 2026, pending regulatory approval.

Nairobi-based Afri Fund Capital has announced the signing of a debenture agreement with Cummins C&G Limited, to support the development of 3,000MW of energy capacity under the LAPSSET Corridor Programme. The agreement establishes a collaborative framework to deliver reliable, scalable, and sustainable energy infrastructure across key project sites, beginning with Lamu.

Sahara Impact Ventures has announced an undisclosed investment in Wahu Mobility, an e-mobility company headquartered in Ghana. Through this investment, Wahu will scale its operations, expand existing assembly capacity, and empower more riders, especially women to lead Africa’s clean-mobility revolution.

Zid, a Saudi-born commerce enablement platform, has entered Egypt through a strategic partnership that includes the acquisition of Zammit for an undisclosed sum. Under the agreement, Zammit will take full operational control of Zid Egypt, spanning domestic sales, merchant acquisition, technical support, and market expansion. Zid’s infrastructure and products will be transferred for formal adoption in Egypt across Zammit’s client base.

Groupe Holged, a private education group in Morocco, has acquired École La Prairie, a well-established private school located in central Casablanca. Financial terms were not disclosed.

African Export-import Bank (Afreximbank) has extended a US$36,4 million contract financing facility to Egypt’s SAMCO-National Construction Company (SAMCO) for the construction of the Akii Bua Olympic Stadium in Uganda. The Akii Bua Olympic Stadium, located in Lira, Uganda, is expected to host some of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) games which Uganda is co-hosting with its East African neighbours Kenya and Tanzania in a joint bid. The facility, granted under Afreximbank’s Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) programme, which supports African EPC companies to bid for large-scale contracts in African countries, is expected to be used to finance and support SAMCO in the design, construction and development of the stadium project and in the acquisition of essential components required for the successful execution of the project.

The Presco Plc Rights Issue of 166,666,667 ordinary shares at ₦1,420 per share, opened 12 November. The offer allows existing shareholders to purchase 1 new share for every 6 shares already held. Presco specialises in the cultivation of oil palm and in the extraction, refining and fractionation of crude palm oil into finished products. The proceeds will be used for industrial expansion and for completing the acquisition of several greenfield and brownfield projects.

South Africa’s equity capital markets – in terminal decline or turning a corner?

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For even the most casual of observers, it would be easy to believe that the South African equity capital markets are in a state of gradual and irreversible decline.

We have all seen headlines lamenting the seemingly inexorable wave of delistings (and the corresponding lack of new listings to fill the void), denouncing the penal costs of getting and then staying listed, and bemoaning the endless red tape that stymies corporate action within the listed environment.

While these headlines may be somewhat sensationalist by design, the claims are not completely lacking in substance. For example, since the end of 2018, Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) data confirms that the number of companies listed on the Main Board of the JSE has reduced by almost a quarter, falling from 326 to 250, with blue chip names such as Imperial Logistics, Liberty, Massmart, Medi-Clinic and Distell among those that have departed.

Offsetting these debits, the credit column contains only two initial public offerings (IPOs) that have raised R1bn or more in that period – Premier Group and Boxer. And while markets such as the UK and US saw a wave of proactive, ‘safety first’ capital raisings in the midst of the COVID pandemic to insulate balance sheets against the unknown, many companies on the JSE sat tight, in no small part due to the fact that they would have needed to go through the lengthy process of seeking shareholder approval before being able to raise capital.

The net result is that since the beginning of 2018, we have had six of the seven quietest years of equity issuance in the last twenty years.

While the above does indeed paint a gloomy picture and lend support to the claims of a failing equity market, context is everything. The lack of capital raising activity, whether via IPO or follow-on activity, is far less of a surprise when assessed against the backdrop of the tepid economic growth that has characterised this period.

This can largely be attributed to various factors including, but not limited to, the slow pace of government reform, increased sovereign indebtedness, political instability, geopolitics, and signs that globalisation is being eschewed for more nationalistic foreign and economic policies.

It is this backdrop and the uncertain outlook it has created that has given listed corporates every encouragement to become more inwardly focused, driving efficiencies and cutting costs as a means of increasing net earnings, and deferring big capital expenditure projects (whether organic or inorganic) for as long as the returns profile of such initiatives remains difficult to forecast.

Similarly, it has given those unlisted companies who have the luxury of choice, good reason to shelve their IPO plans until they can show a stronger track record of growth and achieve a more attractive valuation upon listing.

To illustrate the impact this has had on South Africa’s equity capital markets, one only needs to look at how much growth capital has been raised on the JSE since 2018. According to Dealogic data, only six companies outside the real estate sector have raised R1bn or more to fund growth, and capital raised across all sectors for this purpose accounts for less than 20% of total issuance volumes for the period.

This suggests that the dearth of activity is as much a function of absent supply as it is a failing marketplace, and an analysis of the market’s response to the deal flow that has taken place of late appears to corroborate this conclusion.

In the last 12 months, we have seen four deals that have raised over R8bn – a notable pick-up in large cap issuance activity relative to the prior 60 months – and each of these transactions has generated healthy levels of oversubscription and delivered attractive pricing for the selling shareholders.

Perhaps most notable amongst those four transactions is the most recent – September’s R44bn placement of Anglo American’s residual 19.9% stake in Valterra Platinum – a deal on which Standard Bank acted as Joint Global Coordinator.

Despite being the largest ECM transaction ever executed on the JSE, it achieved substantial oversubscription, with orders exceeding R250bn generated during the two hours that the deal was live. The facts that the demand originated from over 150 individual investors from South Africa, the UK, the US and Continental Europe, and that the deal priced at a mere 0.5% discount to the 3-day pre-launch volume weighted average price (VWAP) both illustrate that institutional investors sit on bountiful liquidity, and that their appetite for (and willingness to pay for) high quality South African equity stories is nothing short of robust.

So wherein lies the truth? The fact is that equity markets are cyclical and, by extension, so are equity issuance volumes. While the most recent cyclical downturn has tested the patience of even the most hardened of ECM bankers, it remains just that: a downturn from which activity will recover.

With the market taking confidence from the incrementally improving political and economic backdrop at home, and adjusting to the seemingly new norm of a global backdrop characterised by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and nationalistic policy, there are signs that confidence is slowly returning. With an IPO pipeline that appears busier than at any time since the advent of the COVID pandemic, and with selling shareholders having reminded C-suites across the country that the market is open and operating efficiently, there are signs that we may be coming to the end of this latest cyclical downturn, and able to look forward to a sustained recovery into 2026 and beyond.

Richard Stout is Head of Equity Capital Markets, South Africa & Sub-Saharan Africa | Standard Bank CIB

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

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