Monday, July 13, 2026
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Satrix: Why you’re wrong about emerging markets

Whatever you think about emerging market (EM) equities, you’re probably wrong. The popular misconception is that EM indices are a single, monolithic, low-tech, high-risk/potential-high-reward bucket. The reality is far more nuanced and far more interesting – especially if you’re building a well-diversified investment portfolio.

“When it comes to offshore diversification, most local investors automatically think of developed market (DM) indices, such as the S&P 500 or the MSCI World Index,” says Nonhlanhla Mphelo, Senior Portfolio Manager at Satrix. “And while these indices have added significant value to investor portfolios since 2010 (largely on the back of tremendous technology sector growth), looking ahead, investors may be well served by adding a diversified global equity exposure in the form of emerging market equities.”

Common misconceptions about emerging markets

EMs are often characterised as politically unstable, commodity-driven and highly dependent on global cycles. But while these risks remain relevant in parts of the universe, this view is increasingly outdated.

“EMs are diverse, spanning multiple regions and development stages, with many economies becoming more domestically driven,” says Mphelo. “They are also home to globally competitive companies, resulting in a wide range of risk and return profiles across the asset class.”

You’re looking at regions like Asia-Pacific (including countries like China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, etc), Latin America (Brazil, Chile, etc), Europe (Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey, etc), Africa (Egypt, South Africa, etc) and the Middle East (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc). When you’re investing in EM funds, all these countries (and others) represent a diverse range of geographies and industries.

Mphelo says that EMs embody both growth potential and risk. “On the opportunity side, many EM economies typically benefit from faster economic growth as they develop,” Mphelo explains. “This growth is driven by favourable demographics, rising consumption, infrastructure investment, and expanding labour forces, as populations tend to be younger and growing.”

Sectors covered by emerging markets

Another false assumption is the idea that EM funds are light on tech and heavy on resources. In fact, EMs are diversified across all Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors.

MSCI data (30 June 2026) shows the Emerging Markets Index has higher weightings in Information Technology (45.26% vs 30.27% in MSCI World Index) and Financials (18.4% vs 15.88%), while Healthcare (2.37% vs 9.08%) and Industrials (6.75% vs 11.64%) are lower.

“This reflects the structure of EM economies, where technology hardware, financial services, commodities, and materials play a more prominent role,” says Mphelo.

How EMs enhance a diversified portfolio

When you’re building a portfolio, choosing between EM and DM funds shouldn’t be an either/or debate. If anything, EM funds provide a compelling complement to those well-known DM indices – whether it’s a broad EM option like the Satrix MSCI Emerging Markets Feeder ETF or the Satrix MSCI EM ESG Enhanced Feeder ETF, or a country-specific EM fund like the Satrix MSCI China Feeder ETF or the Satrix MSCI India Feeder ETF.

“While DMs are dominated by large, mature companies and economies, EM exposure offers access to potentially faster‑growing economies, broader geographic diversification – and, in many cases, more attractive valuations,” says Mphelo. “Analysts have in recent years pointed to stretched valuations in DM equities, contrasted with EM Market equity valuations more in line with long-term aggregates.”

Within the Satrix balanced funds, EM equities are viewed as a source of meaningful long‑term upside and diversification. As a result, EM equity exposure was increased above the approximate 12% MSCI ACWI benchmark levels in the 2024 Strategic Asset Allocation review to roughly 20% of the global equities segment.

“This positioning was based on higher expected returns due to lower valuations,” says Mphelo, comparing the MSCI World’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 24.6x to the MSCI Emerging Markets P/E of 18.6x as at 30 June 2026. “Our belief was also that EMs offered more attractive economic growth prospects and attractive upside potential, while adding important sector diversification from the high-tech exposure offered by DM equities,” she explains.

“Emerging markets offer significant long‑term potential and have delivered competitive performance relative to the MSCI World and S&P 500 over certain periods,” Mphelo concludes. “As part of a diversified portfolio, EM exposure can provide both growth opportunities and diversification benefits. And while volatility is higher with EMs, patient investors who can tolerate risk may benefit from the structural growth trends present across EM economies, including Africa and beyond.”

Disclaimer

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an authorised Financial Service Provider (FSP) in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (FSP no 43670). Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd (Satrix) is an authorised Financial Service Provider (FSP no 15658) and a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts and ETFs, the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of an ETF, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange.

ETFs are index tracking funds, registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange or via Investment Plans and online trading platforms. ETFs may incur additional costs due to being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A feeder fund is a portfolio that invests in a single portfolio of a collective investment scheme, which levies its own charges, and which could result in a higher fee structure for the feeder fund. International investments or investments in foreign securities could be accompanied by additional risks such as potential constraints on liquidity and repatriation of funds, macroeconomic risk, political risk, foreign exchange risk, tax risk, settlement risk as well as potential limitations on the availability of market information. The manager has the right to close the portfolio to new investors in order to manage it more efficiently in accordance with its mandate.

Visit www.satrix.co.za for more information.

Ghost Bites (Labat Africa | Old Mutual | South Ocean Holdings)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • When will Labat Africa engage with the market and tell their story?
  • Old Mutual reminds us just how well our market infrastructure works in South Africa
  • South Ocean Holdings expands in Cape Town

When will Labat Africa engage with the market and tell their story? (JSE: LAB)

They now own 100% of Classic International, yet the share price remains stuck at R0.03

Labat Africa has now concluded the acquisition of the remaining 24.45% in Classic International. This means that they’ve issued another 900 million shares (at R0.03 per share) to settle the purchase price of R27 million.

Classic International is an IT company. Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t take long for the words “artificial intelligence” to be thrown around as well. This is part of Labat’s broader transformation into a tech company, something that the market is finding difficult to understand. Historically, Labat was a cannabis business, so you can’t really blame the market for the confusion.

Ghost Bite: Labat Africa has been promising to talk to the market and explain the strategy. This implies that a Capital Markets Day is in the pipeline. Let’s see if (and when) that happens.


Old Mutual reminds us how well our market infrastructure works in South Africa (JSE: OMU)

By emerging and frontier market standards, we are very spoilt here

There’s never a dull moment when it comes to frontier markets like Zimbabwe.

Old Mutual has been suspended from trading on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) for years now, despite the suspension having absolutely nothing to do with Old Mutual itself.

After years of engaging with regulators, Old Mutual has determined that the easiest route to achieving some liquidity for investors in Zimbabwe will be via a transfer of the listing from the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange to the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX).

Interestingly, VFEX now has 19 counters listed on its exchange vs. just one listing in 2020 when the nonsense started with the ZSE suspensions. Another element worth highlighting is that VFEX trading is all denominated in USD, so you also don’t get the same currency volatility that you’ll find on the ZSE.

Ghost Bite: This makes no difference to South Africa investors in Old Mutual, but I think it’s a good reminder of some of the difficulties in doing business in markets like these. Our financial markets infrastructure in South Africa is literally world-class.


South Ocean Holdings expands in Cape Town (JSE: SOH)

A related party deal gives them a foothold

South Ocean is a R200 million market cap company with thin liquidity in its stock.

The company is focused on low voltage electrical cables. This is a difficult business that saw profitability plummet in the year ended December 2025, hence why the share price is down 41% over 12 months.

South Ocean is now acquiring Southern Atlantic Cables for R4.5 million. South Ocean will pay for the deal through the issuance of shares at 98 cents per share. The current traded price is R1.00 per share.

The unusual element to this deal is that it is a related party transaction, thanks to the involvement of the Chairman of South Ocean in this asset. It’s a rather convoluted story, with the summary being that the Chairman got involved in this asset a year ago to acquire it from a former customer. For whatever reason, the opportunity wasn’t available to South Ocean at the time.

As with all related party deals, the director with a conflict of interest reclused himself from the meeting to discuss the transaction. The rest of the board believes that the deal is fair, particularly in the context of the cost of setting up distribution in Cape Town.

Southern Atlantic Cables generated net profit of R968k in the period ended December 2025, so they are picking it up on a P/E of roughly 4.5x.

Ghost Bite: Single-digit P/E multiples are market practice for industrial assets in South Africa. If anything, given the size of this business, 4.5x is probably slightly on the high side. With part of the justification being the route-to-market in Cape Town, this valuation is being substantiated by more than just the existing earnings. A build-or-buy analysis is common in corporate transactions.

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Strategic vs. financial investors

Are you familiar with how strategic investors (like South Ocean) differ from financial investors?


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • As part of broader share awards, the CFO of Lewis Group (JSE: LEW) sold shares in excess of the taxable portion worth R1.34 million.
    • A founding director of Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) sold shares worth R98k. This adds to the recent selling by that director.
  • Accelerate Property Fund (JSE: APF) made a mistake in their last SENS announcement. Distributable earnings will be between 1.96 cents and 2.31 cents, not between R1.96 and R2.31. With the share price at R0.49, I imagine that most people just read straight over the error without realising it. Anyway, the company has now corrected it. For anyone who thought that the company is trading on a P/E of around 0.25x, this will be an unpleasant correction.
  • Visual International (JSE: VIS) has confirmed that Serowe Industries has terminated its non-binding offer to acquire up to 34.9% of the company. This is yet another reminder that a corporate deal is never done until the cash has flowed. Even binding offers can fall over, so non-binding offers are little more than a promise to meet up for dinner at some point.
  • Novus (JSE: NVS) continues to build its stake in Mustek (JSE: MST). These are on-market trades, so it takes a long time to meaningfully add to an existing position via this approach. Recent purchases have taken Novus from a direct stake of 50.44% to 50.67%. Together with concert parties, the stake has increased from 70.73% to 70.96%.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) released another set of drilling results at the Kawbe Zinc Mine. As usual, you need a degree in geology to understand anything about the technical elements of the announcement. It seems like the latest drilling was in a northern area of the project that isn’t as well understood as the rest, so this was exploratory drilling in the truest sense. Having now learnt more about the orebody, they will return to more central areas that aren’t as unknown.

What really happened on Dyatlov Pass?

A slashed tent, frozen footprints, and injuries with no visible cause. The Dyatlov Pass case has everything a good mystery needs, except a conclusion.

At the end of the 1950s, nine experienced hikers walked into the Ural Mountains in Western Russia. None of them walked out again. What they left behind has puzzled the world for decades: a tent slashed open from the inside, warm clothing and shoes left behind, and bodies scattered across the frozen slopes in various states of undress.

The events that took place on the Dyatlov Pass are shrouded in mystery; we have many theories, but no irrefutable conclusions. Grim though it may be, it has become one of the internet’s favourite enigmas, probably because it has so many tantalizing clues scattered across it. 

Proceed with caution, dear reader, and with the knowledge that no straight answers lie in wait at the end of this article. 

First, the facts

In January 1959, a 23-year-old radio engineering student named Igor Dyatlov led a group of 9 experienced hikers into the northern Urals on a ski expedition. One member of the group turned back early with joint pain, thereby becoming the only member of the 10 to survive. 

The 9 remaining hikers pressed on toward a mountain that the local Mansi people called Kholat Syakhl, which roughly translates to “Dead Mountain”. As far as names go, that one is probably the closest that a mountain can provide in lieu of an actual indemnity form. 

The group had arranged to send a telegram to their sports club once they reached the settlement of Vizhai, which they estimated they would get to no later than 12 February. When the date came and went with no sign of a telegram, nobody panicked. After all, there was a great distance to cover and delays were quite normal on such ambitious expeditions. It wasn’t until the 20th of February, when stressed relatives of the hikers started demanding action, that search parties were sent out. 

On 26 February, volunteer searchers found the hikers’ tent on the slope of Kholat Syakhl. It was half-collapsed and appeared to have been cut open from the inside. The hikers’ clothing and supplies were still inside, but they were not. Instead, footprints leaving the opening in the tent indicated that they had walked towards the treeline, which was about 1.5 kilometres away, in single file and at a normal pace. What was even stranger was the fact that the footprints revealed that only some of the hikers were wearing boots when they left the tent – some were barefoot, and one set of prints was left by a person wearing only one sock. 

They found the first two bodies under a pine tree. They were stripped down to their underwear and huddled around the remains of a small fire. Some distance away from them, three more bodies, slightly better dressed, were found in the snow, in positions that suggested that they were attempting to return to the tent when they died. The final four were only found about two months later, buried under metres of snow in a ravine. 

Next comes the inquest

A legal inquest started as soon as the first five bodies were found. A medical examination found no injuries that might have led to their deaths, and it was concluded that they had all died of hypothermia – unsurprising, considering nighttime temperatures in the area were recorded as low as -40 degrees Celsius. It seemed like a relatively open-and-shut case (with the odd inexplicable detail here and there) until the second batch of bodies was recovered from the ravine. At this point, things got a little weird.

Three of the hikers found in the ravine had fatal injuries: one had major skull damage, and two had crushing chest fractures. These were the kinds of internal injuries that coroners usually saw in car crash victims – and they were almost exclusively internal. With the exception of some soft tissue damage to their faces (which is to be expected from being found face-down in running water), none of the four bodies from the ravine had external wounds that aligned with their severe bone fractures. 

The Soviet inquest opened in February 1959 and was hastily closed that May with the deliberately hollow verdict that the hikers had died from “a compelling natural force”, whatever that means. The files were then classified and packed away in a secret archive, where they stayed for three decades. Relatives were told only that the group had frozen, and the dead were buried in closed coffins

Now, the theories

Given the combination of unusual circumstances, unanswered questions and unyielding Soviets in charge of the information, human imagination was left to fill in the gaps in this story. And boy, did we produce some colourful theories over the course of the past 67 years.

Of course, there’s a Yeti theory, because you can’t have people dying under strange circumstances anywhere near a snowy mountain without invoking a shaggy, slouching cryptid. Proponents of this theory point to the fact that some of the hikers died of physical trauma (they don’t have an explanation for the fact that the hikers had almost no external wounds – maybe the Yeti was wearing gloves that day). What really fanned the flames of this theory was a creepy photograph retrieved from one of the hikers’ film cameras, which showed what appeared to be a dark, blurry figure peering around a tree. There’s every likelihood that this was just another hiker. Unfortunately, the image really is too blurry to say for sure. 

One hypothesis, popularised by Donnie Eichar’s 2013 book Dead Mountain, is that wind going around Kholat Syakhl created a Kármán vortex, which can produce infrasound (low frequency acoustic waves) capable of inducing panic attacks in humans. Eichar claims that, because of their panic, the hikers were driven to leave the tent by whatever means necessary and fled down the slope. By the time they were farther down the hill, they would have been out of the infrasound’s path and would have regained their composure, but in the darkness would have been unable to return to their shelter.

Another popular theory is that the campsite fell within the path of a Soviet parachute mine exercise. This theory alleges that the hikers fled the tent in a shoeless panic after being woken by loud explosions overhead. The four found in the ravine were fatally injured by parachute mine concussions. 

There’s a bit of meat to this theory, as there are indeed records of parachute mines being tested by the Soviet military around the time the hikers were in the area. Parachute mines detonate while still in the air rather than upon striking the Earth’s surface and produce signature injuries similar to those experienced by the hikers: heavy internal damage with relatively little external trauma. The theory also coincides with reported sightings of glowing, orange orbs floating or falling in the sky within the general vicinity of the hikers. However, mines detonating overhead, or anything striking the ground, should leave traces – and searchers found no metallic shards, no fragments, no blast debris and no craters at the site. There’s also no explanation for why the physical trauma would affect only four out of nine hikers.

And then of course, there are the avalanche theories, of which many different versions exist. The original searchers dismissed the idea almost immediately, and for good reason: there was no debris, no obvious slide path, and the slope looked too gentle to produce one. Experienced hikers like Dyatlov and his group would not have pitched their tent in the path of an obvious avalanche risk.

But in 2021, two scientists at Swiss universities, Alexander Puzrin and Johan Gaume, offered a version that answered those objections. Their model proposed a slab avalanche – not the roaring, tree-flattening wave of the imagination, but a smaller slab of hard-packed snow. 

Their theory is that the hikers had cut into the slope to pitch their tent, weakening the snow above them. Over the following hours, fierce katabatic winds loaded fresh snow onto that weak spot until a slab broke loose and slid down onto the tent while they slept. It was small enough to leave almost no trace by morning, which explains why the first searchers saw no avalanche at all. 

A compressed slab of snow pressing sleeping bodies against the hard floor of the tent could, the researchers argued, produce exactly those crushing injuries without breaking the skin. The single-file march from the tent and the retreat to the trees reads as the disciplined response of trained mountaineers who knew that disturbing the snow too much could spring another avalanche. The pace of their exit could also have been slowed by the need to carry the injured. How the injured wound up separated from the rest of the group if they couldn’t walk on their own remains a lingering question. 

To their credit, Puzrin and Gaume are the first to admit they haven’t closed the case, only made the avalanche theory plausible again. Critics still point out that the slope is shallow and the classic signs were missing. But of all the theories, this one is probably the one that asks us to believe the least.

The mountain is keeping its mystery

So, what happened on the Dyatlov Pass? Even if we trade a supernatural mystery for a natural one, the natural one keeps a few cards face-down. The avalanche model is the most convincing thing we have, but it still can’t fully explain why the group split up, why they cut the tent open instead of using the door, why the Soviets guarded the inquest files so fiercely or what those orange lights in the sky were.

In 1962, a monument bearing the faces of all nine hikers was raised beside their graves in the Mikhaylovskoye cemetery in Yekaterinburg. A year later, a group of climbers fixed a plaque to the mountain itself, with an inscription naming the pass in the group’s honour. It has been called the Dyatlov Pass ever since. Yuri Yudin, whose sore knee sent him home early and saved his life, carried the weight of that luck until he died in 2013. Before his death, he requested to be buried alongside his friends. For the first time in 54 years, Dyatlov’s hiking party rested together again.

If you want to really dig into this story and see more photos, this website is quite a thing.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

You can learn more about her work at dominiqueolivier.com and she can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | Bytes Technology | Capitec | Sappi)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Accelerate Property Fund makes more progress
  • Bytes Technology investors will have to be patient
  • Capitec sells the rental finance business to Sasfin
  • Sappi unlocks some positivity in the market

Accelerate Property Fund makes more progress (JSE: APF)

This is one of the few speculative positions in my portfolio

Accelerate Property Fund is an interesting special situation on the JSE.

The fund has been trading at a vast discount to net asset value (NAV) per share for a variety of reasons. These include questions around whether Fourways Mall can be turned into a success, as well as the historical disputes and legal claims with ex-CEO Michael Georgiou (whose entity Azrapart is now in business rescue, and being managed by the business rescue practitioners).

I bought this stock a while ago based on progress they had made with major disposals like the Portside building. When a fund is trading at such a large discount to NAV, the main thing you want to see is the disposal of properties at a price close to NAV. Portside was a perfect and very large example of this.

Technically, if the fund sold absolutely everything and returned the capital to shareholders, the discount to NAV would close and there would be large gains on the table. In practice, what happens is somewhere in the middle – some of the buildings are disposed of, and the discount partially closes.

To that end, I’m happy to see that Accelerate has sold the BMW Fourways dealership showroom for R174 million to a subsidiary of Toyota. That probably gives us a clue about the future of the cars you’ll find at that property. But more importantly for me and the other Accelerate shareholders, the valuation of that property is R180 million.

This means that Accelerate has achieved close to NAV on this disposal, with a strong disposal yield of 6.4%. It’s a prime property, but I’m still glad that they’ve gotten this price. Nothing is ever guaranteed until the deals are actually done.

In further good news, Accelerate’s distributable earnings for the year ended March 2026 came in between 1.96 cents and 2.31 cents per share. That’s a massive swing from a distributable loss per share of 3.97 cents in the prior period. There’s still no dividend (the company’s balance sheet needs further improvement), but the direction of travel is clear.

The final piece of good news is one that will be the subject of debate. The company has decided to derecognise the obligation of R371 million linked to the rebuilt claim by Azrapart. This is a more aggressive accounting policy than we’ve seen before, so the company must be feeling confident that this claim has no merit. This does mean that the NAV will need to be adjusted by investors based on the risk weighting that they are willing to put on this claim.

Ghost Bite: My average in-price is R0.41 per share and the current price is R0.51. Accelerate has been as high as R0.76 per share. Of course, hindsight has demonstrated that I should’ve sold and re-entered lower down. I remain confident that my position will work out nicely here.


Bytes Technology investors will have to be patient (JSE: BYI)

Income is growing, but operating expenses are soaking up that growth

News broke the other day that VCP has taken a stake of over 5% in Bytes Technology Group. The market would see that as a positive sign. There’s now more information to consider, as Bytes used its AGM as an opportunity to give a brief update on recent trading.

For the first four months of the new financial year, Bytes achieved double-digit growth in gross invoiced income and gross profit. This is across both the private and public sectors.

Sounds wonderful, except operating profit is flat year-on-year. Investing for growth is fine, but one wonders about a strategy in which such strong top-line growth isn’t converting into anything for shareholders.

According to management, this performance is consistent with the company’s outlook, so they are on track with their plans at the moment.

Ghost Bite: Over 90 days, Bytes is up 44%. But on a year-to-date basis, the share price is only up 11%! Talk about perfect market timing for those who bought the selling pressure at the end of March.


Capitec sells the rental finance business to Sasfin (JSE: CPI)

Both financial services houses are sticking to what they are good at

Here’s something interesting, not least of all because it’s the first piece of news I’ve seen on Sasfin in a while.

You may recall that Sasfin was taken private as part of a significant strategic shift away from their traditional banking business and towards the areas in which Sasfin traditionally has strength.

Similarly, Capitec built its group by focusing on the things they are really good at.

The latest transaction is a good example of two financial services companies sticking to their knitting.

Capitec will sell the Capitec Rental Finance business to Sasfin for R201 million. Additionally, Capitec will provide a secured credit facility of R1.6 billion to that business to fund the ongoing rental receivables book. This means that Capitec retains indirect exposure to this segment via a loan, rather than through equity ownership and operating risk.

Capitec originally acquired the Capitec Rental Finance business as part of the Mercantile Bank deal in 2019. They’ve no doubt developed a good understanding of the business over the past 7 years, giving them the confidence to switch from being an equity holder to being a lender.

As for Sasfin, it’s good to see some positive momentum there after the take-private.

Ghost Bite: A R201 million transaction is literally a rounding error vs. Capitec’s market cap of R547 billion. But for Sasfin, this will be an important transaction.


Sappi unlocks some positivity in the market (JSE: SAP)

Recent trading has been better than expected

Sappi closed 15% higher on Thursday after giving the market some hope about the financial prospects of the group.

Previous guidance was that adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter would be lower than in the second quarter. Updated guidance is that group adjusted EBITDA should be broadly in line with the second quarter.

There’s a big difference between going backwards and ending up flat quarter-on-quarter. This is why the market gave this broken stock some love.

This performance was driven by stronger-than-anticipated results in North America, along with the steady ramp-up of Somerset Mill PM2 sales volumes.

Ghost Bite: Sappi is as speculative a stock as you’ll ever find. Even after the 15% jump, the share price is still down 58% year-to-date!


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Two directors of Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) bought shares worth over R1.65 million.
    • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) bought shares worth R130k. The spouse of another long-standing top exec bought shares worth R200k.
    • The CEO of Finbond (JSE: FGL) bought shares worth R45k.
  • S&P upgraded the credit rating of NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) from BBB (with a positive outlook) to BBB+ (with a stable outlook). This is a factor of the company’s strategy and strength of the balance sheet. If you’re interested in learning more, I explained the importance of credit ratings in a video and podcast available here.
  • Aspen (JSE: APN) announced that chairman Kuseni Dlamini will step down as Chairman and independent non-executive director. He’s been in that role since 2015, so that’s quite an innings! Ben Kruger will take on the role of Chairman after the AGM in December. Notably, Chris Mortimer is also stepping down as an independent non-executive director. He’s been on the board since 1999!
  • Numeral (JSE: XII), one of the most obscure names on the local market, gave an update on its healthcare and biotech segment. Aside from the development of a flagship facility in Kyalami, they’ve also invested into WestMed in the Western Cape. They are exiting Longevity and Isopharm. Also, the shareholding in Cryo-Save was increased to 51% as expected. Financials for the year ended February 2026 are expected to be finalised by mid-July.
  • Zeda (JSE: ZZD) has issued additional notes to the value of R1.1 billion under its Domestic Medium-Term Note (DMTN) Programme. They got this done at 5 basis points below price guidance, so that should assist a bit with their cost of funding.
  • Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) is no longer suspended from trading. There were initially suspended in October 2025 due to failure to release results for the year ended March 2025. They’ve now caught up, so the shares can trade again. With a market cap of under R100 million, I still wouldn’t expect much in the way of traded volumes.
  • Two non-executive directors of Cilo Cybin (JSE: CCC) have resigned. Replacements haven’t been named yet. There’s also a change to the company secretary. That’s a lot of governance churn at the same time for a small cap.
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Sappi - sad or happy?

Does this news make you want to get involved in Sappi?

VIDEO: Why credit ratings matter | Why REITs raise capital so easily

The recently launched Ghost Bites podcast brings you an audio supplement to the daily Ghost Bites that you know and love in Ghost Mail. This gives me an opportunity to expand on certain topics in detail, while bringing in the results of the poll as well.

This edition of Ghost Bites makes sense of these SENS announcements:

  • Fitch upgrades the credit ratings of several local banks
  • Hyprop initially announces a R500 million capital raise, but raises R739 million in the end

Always do your own advice and speak to your financial advisor before making any investments. The Finance Ghost may hold positions in any of these stocks at time of recording or subsequently.

Watch on YouTube

Listen to the podcast

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Capitec Bank has entered into an agreement with Sasfin Capital to dispose of Capitec Rental Finance (CRF), a business it acquired in 2019 as part of its acquisition of Mercantile Bank. CRF provides asset financing solutions for businesses across various industries. The disposal consideration is R201 million. Concurrent with the disposal, Capitec Bank will provide a secured credit facility of R1,6 billion to CRF to fund the ongoing rental receivables book.

Accelerate Property Fund has reached an agreement with CFAO Mobility Properties to dispose of the BMW Fourways motor dealership and the land on which the dealership is built in a transaction valued at R220 million. The proceeds will be applied to the reduction of debt.

Numeral has made an undisclosed strategic investment into WestMed, a healthcare platform based in the Western Cape. WestMed operates primary healthcare clinics, specialist medical practices, aesthetic medicine, advanced surgical services and regenerative medicine capabilities. The company also announced the exit of its investments in Longevity and Isopharm due to the inability to secure timely operational and financial information from the founder for purposes of consolidation.

Warsaw-headquartered Globe Trade Centre has, via its 70%-held subsidiary Euro Structor, entered into an agreement to dispose of Avenue Mall, a shopping and office centre located in the Novi Zagreb district in Croatia for a purchase consideration of c.€98 million.

Mantengu, which is currently subject to exclusivity arrangements in favour of Afresources Mining, has received an unsolicited conditional offer to acquire the entire issued share capital of Blue Ridge for an aggregate cash purchase consideration greater than the Afresources’ offer of R50 million.

Hammerson has divested of non-core assets to the value of £75 million during 2026. The proceeds will be allocated to balance sheet strengthening and recycling into existing assets and new opportunities at attractive yields. To this point the company recently completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the Dublin ILAC Centre.

The disposal announced in May 2026 by MAS plc of six Romanian open-air malls to AFI Europe was completed on 8 July 2026. The category 2 transaction was valued at €197,7 million (R3,78 billion).

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is to acquire the South African downstream business from Shell. The deal includes 580 fuel stations and Shell South Africa’s wholesale, aviation and lubricant businesses. The transaction has an implied enterprise value of US$1 billion. As part of the transaction, ADNOC will sell a 28% stake in the local business to a BEE party.

HyperDev, a South African AI coding platform has raised US$1 million in pre-seed funding from venture capital investors in Europe and the UK. The funding will support the continued development of its AI coding platform which is designed to assist developers and non-technical users to build software more efficiently. Launched earlier this year, HyperDev platform already has some 100,000 users.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Hyprop Investments has successfully raised R738,9 million in an accelerated bookbuild – up from the initial R500 million target announced. The company will issue 12,631,505 new shares, the maximum it is authorised to issue, at a price of R58.50 per share. The issue price represents a 1.4% premium to the 30-day VWAP of R57.71 per share on 7 July 2026. The proceeds will be used to fund new and organic growth opportunities both locally and offshore.

Novus has acquired an additional 440 Mustek shares at R14.90 per share on the open market (outside of the Mandatory Offer) for R6,556. The company now holds 29,02 million Mustek shares constituting 50.44% of the issued shares in Mustek. Together with concert parties this shareholding increases to c.70.73%.

In October 2025 Sebata’s trading on the JSE was suspended due to the failure to publish its audited financial results for the year ended 31 March 2025. The company has brought its financial reporting fully up to date with the publication of its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2025. As a result, its suspension was lifted on 9 July 2026.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Reinet Investments intends to purchase its ordinary shares at market value for an aggregate maximum amount of €500 million subject to a maximum of 16.5 million ordinary shares over a period up to the 2027 Annual General Meeting of the Company. The implementation will be through several successive and separate programmes and shares will not be cancelled. The Rupert family has declared its intention not to sell any shares during the duration of this Programme. This week Reinet acquired 481,749 shares on the JSE for an aggregate R215 million.

To reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders, Quilter commenced, in March 2026, a £100 million share buyback programme. Repurchases to date total £40 million of which £32 million were conducted on the LSE and £8 million were conducted on the JSE. The maximum aggregate purchase price payable by the Company under Tranche 2 is up to C.£30 million. During the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, Quilter repurchased 5,750,565 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £11,19 million and 1,715,374 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R72,84 million.

In June, Greencoat Renewables announced its intention to commence a second tranche of the repurchase programme which will return a further €25m of capital to shareholders, following the completion of the first tranche which is expected during July. The second tranche repurchase will be complete by end-December 2026. This week 948,720 shares were repurchased for an aggregate €722,652.

Bytes Technology announced in May 2026 its intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million. This week the company repurchased 350,799 shares at an average price per share of £3.88 for an aggregate £1,35 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. All shares repurchased will be cancelled. Over the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, the company repurchased a further 477,743 shares at an average price of £46.53 per share for an aggregate £22,2 million.

Ninety One plc announced an increase in the repurchase programme from £30 million to £55 million to be completed by 21 July 2026. The shares, to be purchased on the open market, will be cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 1,242,934 ordinary shares at an average price 211 pence for an aggregate £2,63 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, the group repurchased 521,7054 shares for €37,68 million.

During the period 29 June to 3 July 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,218,033 Prosus shares for an aggregate €84,23 million and Naspers, a further 898,420 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R737,68 million.

Four companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Efora Energy, Dipula Properties, Mantengu and Trustco.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

A mandatory takeover offer has been triggered by Emerald HoldCo’s acquisition of a controlling interest in Beta Glass through a broader restructuring involving the former Frigoglass Group’s Nigerian operations. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a mandatory takeover offer valued at ₦6,94 billion by Emerald HoldCo B.V. for up to 11,74 million ordinary shares of Beta Glass Plc. The offer will see Emerald acquire shares at ₦590.94 each representing a total transaction value of approximately N6.94 billion.

Bridge Bank Group Côte d’Ivoire has opened a public offer for a fifth of its shares, looking to raise about US$118 million (67.5 billion CFA francs) ahead of a listing on West Africa’s regional stock exchange, BRVM.

VBL Industries (Kenya) wholly-owned subsidiary of Varun Beverages has entered into an agreement to acquire the value-added dairy beverages, juices and packaged drinking water of Devyani Food Industries (Kenya) for a consideration of US$32 million.

OLA Energy Group has signed an agreement with TotalEnergies to acquire TotalEnergies Marketing Ethiopia. The transaction covers TotalEnergies Marketing Ethiopia’s full downstream operations — a network of more than 120 service stations strategically located across major cities, serving retail, B2B, aviation and lubricant customers. The network includes 10 storage assets, world-class logistics infrastructure, and digital payment solutions already in operation. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Pending litigation and SA M&A transactions: Navigating due diligence, valuation and risk allocation

In the acquisition of any company, litigation and dispute exposure is a material consideration in assessing the risk profile and overall value of the target. Litigation due diligence is not merely a procedural step, but a fundamental component of a purchaser’s risk assessment, directly shaping pricing, deal structure, conditions precedent, indemnities and post-closing risk allocation. While certain industries and businesses inevitably operate in dispute-heavy environments, unresolved litigation, pending arbitration or latent regulatory enforcement proceedings may materially erode enterprise value, disrupt business continuity and, in extreme cases, render an otherwise commercially attractive transaction untenable. Thorough and properly conducted litigation due diligence is therefore essential, equipping the parties to draw a clear distinction between manageable, quantifiable risk and exposure that fundamentally undermines the viability of the deal.

The litigation due diligence exercise typically commences with an information request list issued to the target. From a South African transactional perspective, this request will generally require disclosure of all pending, threatened or reasonably anticipated litigation, arbitration and regulatory proceedings above a specified materiality threshold, together with supporting documentation. The disclosed information is then assessed and distilled into the due diligence report, where matters are categorised as red flag, amber or routine risk items, having regard to their nature, quantum, and the likelihood of an adverse outcome. In many transactions, the findings of the litigation due diligence exercise will directly influence whether the transaction proceeds, the purchase consideration payable, and the nature and extent of risk mitigation required in the transaction documents.

The first substantive enquiry is the identification and assessment of all material litigation. This requires more than a mechanical listing of claims. Each matter must be analysed with reference to the cause of action, procedural posture, relief sought and realistic exposure, including damages, interest, costs and potential adverse cost orders. Of particular importance is whether any matter gives rise to the risk of interdictory or declaratory relief that could constrain the target’s ability to operate its business post-closing. Consideration must also be given to the adequacy of current and contingent litigation provisions or accounting reserves disclosed in the target’s financial statements, viewed against an objective assessment of exposure rather than management optimism.

Certain categories of disputes have a disproportionate impact on valuation. These include regulatory enforcement proceedings, class actions, environmental claims, intellectual property disputes affecting core technology or licences, and employment-related litigation with systemic implications. Claims of this nature raise concerns not only about financial exposure, but also about continuity of operations, reputational harm, and future compliance costs. In South African practice, purchasers will often require price adjustments, specific indemnities or escrows to address such exposure. Litigation risk, when properly quantified, becomes part of the commercial negotiation, rather than an abstract legal concern.

Effective litigation due diligence is not limited to existing disputes. It also involves reviewing key contracts with a view to identifying breaches, defaults or structural risks that may reasonably be expected to result in litigation or arbitration post-closing. South African M&A practice increasingly emphasises this forward-looking analysis. A target may have no active claims, yet still face material risk arising from non-compliance, defective performance or expiring authorisations. This anticipatory assessment often distinguishes superficial diligence from diligence that genuinely protects value.

In highly regulated sectors, the most material disputes do not always arise from conventional commercial claims, but rather from licensing, permitting and enforcement processes administered by public and law enforcement authorities. In the South African context, rights to operate in regulated industries are frequently conferred through licences, registrations or other statutory permissions, each of which is subject to its own prescribed conditions. These conditions typically include ongoing compliance obligations, reporting duties, operational limitations and, in certain instances, sensitivities to changes in shareholding or control.

Sector-specific legislation commonly prescribes procedural requirements that must be followed, not only by the regulated entity, but by the regulator itself. Where those substantive or procedural requirements are not properly complied with, the risk profile of the target can shift rapidly from latent compliance risk to active litigation risk.

This dynamic is particularly evident in sectors such as banking and financial services, where prudential regulation and approval requirements apply under the Banks Act 94 of 1990 and the Financial Markets Act, 2012; consumer credit and lending businesses regulated under the National Credit Act 34 of 2005; and telecommunications and electronic communications providers operating under the licensing and compliance regime established by the Electronic Communications Act 36 of 2005.

Similar considerations arise in the electricity sector under the Electricity Regulation Act 4 of 2006, in the mining industry under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act 28 of 2002, and in industries subject to licensing and price or conduct regulation, such as medicines and pharmaceutical dispensing, gambling and liquor trading.

In these sectors, regulatory non-compliance can carry consequences that extend well beyond financial penalties. Enforcement may take various forms, including administrative, civil and criminal action, and even sanctions; adverse licensing decisions, such as suspensions, refusals or withdrawals; the imposition of restrictive licence conditions, debarment from participation in regulated activities, disputes arising from municipal or by-law enforcement affecting licensed operations, or formal review proceedings before the courts. Each of these outcomes can materially impair the target’s ability to conduct its business post-closing and, from a transactional perspective, may have a direct impact on deal feasibility, valuation assumptions, and the purchaser’s ability to integrate the target into its existing operations.

Accordingly, a robust litigation due diligence exercise must extend beyond an analysis of instituted proceedings and pleaded claims. It must encompass a critical review of regulatory correspondence, compliance audits, inspection reports and enforcement communications, as well as an assessment of systemic indicators suggesting heightened regulatory risk. For acquirers, particularly in regulated industries, regulatory exposure is often the most commercially significant form of litigation risk, which warrants careful, transaction-specific scrutiny as part of the overall due diligence process.

In conclusion, the findings of the litigation due diligence exercise directly inform transaction mechanics. Comprehensive representations and warranties relating to litigation, compliance and undisclosed liabilities are essential, and must be supported by thorough disclosure schedules. Where identified risks warrant additional protection, specific indemnities may be negotiated outside general caps, baskets or time periods. Escrow arrangements or purchase price holdbacks are commonly employed to secure recovery for known risks. The material adverse effect clause must also be interrogated to ensure that litigation-related risks are appropriately addressed, particularly where proceedings may escalate between signing and closing. Interim conduct covenants often restrict the settlement of material disputes without purchaser consent, recognising that unilateral settlement decisions may alter the risk landscape.

Warranty and indemnity insurance is increasingly deployed as a complementary risk-allocation mechanism in M&A transactions. However, its utility remains limited in the context of known litigation and regulatory exposure – which is typically carved out of cover – underscoring the continued importance of transaction‑specific contractual protections to address identified dispute risk.

Importantly, the presence of litigation does not, in itself, preclude a transaction. Certain businesses are expected, by their nature, to operate in contested environments. The critical enquiry is whether the risk is manageable, quantifiable and capable of contractual allocation. One increasingly employed strategy is the commercial settlement of known disputes, effectively allowing the purchaser to price and “buy” the risk rather than abandon the transaction. While settlement is not always achievable, it remains a pragmatic tool in preserving value and deal momentum.

Callie Jo Bouman is a Senior Associate and Lemont Shondlani an Associate Designate | DLA Piper South Africa. The authors were supervised by Natalie Keetsi (Director)

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

Ghost Bites (Hammerson | Hyprop | Trustco)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Hammerson recycles capital at a premium to book
  • As expected, Hyprop ended up raising more than R500 million
  • Trustco’s investment in Meya Mining is in serious trouble
  • Nibbles: MAS, Prosus and more

Hammerson recycles capital at a premium to book (JSE: HMN)

Investors place a lot of importance on these transactions

Property funds are generally valued with reference to their book value, or net asset value (NAV) per share. These funds “recycle capital” by selling existing properties and putting that capital into new properties. But what is the link to NAV?

Well, each of the underlying properties in the fund contributes to the NAV by having its own book value. If the fund is recycling capital (i.e. selling properties) at a premium to NAV, or in line with NAV, then it gives the market evidence that the overall fund NAV is credible. If you want to prove the value of something, the best way is to turn it into cash!

Hammerson has announced the sale of £69 million of non-core assets, including a number of properties in Dublin that were sold to Transport Infrastructure Ireland to unlock the city’s planned Metrolink train system. Together with smaller disposals earlier in the year, Hammerson has sold £75 million in non-core assets at a “substantial premium to book value”.

It would be nice if the announcement indicated the exact premium, rather than being coy about the numbers.

Hammerson’s recent capital allocation strategy has focused on taking control of joint ventures, so it will be interesting to see how they allocate the latest capital inflow.

Ghost Bite: Hammerson has been through some rough times, but the recent share price trajectory has been solid. The total return over 12 months is almost 20%!


As expected, Hyprop ended up raising more than R500 million (JSE: HYP)

The market remains highly supportive of REITs

On Tuesday, when Hyprop told the market that they were looking to raise R500 million in fresh equity, I wrote in Ghost Bites that there was a good chance of them upsizing the raise based on market demand. Recent capital raising activity in the REIT sector has been strong, with investors throwing money at the best of the local REITs.

Sure enough, Hyprop has increased the raise to R739 million, the absolute maximum that the company could issue based on current authorities in place from shareholders. The price of R58.50 is actually a 1.4% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP). The spot price is R59.32, so at least we aren’t in a crazy scenario where investors are paying a premium to spot.

The book was oversubscribed. Although the announcement isn’t 100% clear, I think this means that there was even more demand than the R739 million that was eventually raised. It’s pretty obvious that it was oversubscribed with reference to the initial R500 million raise, otherwise they wouldn’t have upsized it!

Ghost Bite: This is another excellent example of the depth of the capital pools on the JSE, particularly for property stocks.

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Analysing REITs

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Trustco’s investment in Meya Mining is in serious trouble (JSE: TTO)

Unsurprisingly, Meya Mining hasn’t escaped the destruction of the mined diamond industry

A few years ago, I was one of the only analysts in South Africa who was pounding the table (as they say) about the end of the mined diamond industry. My conviction stemmed directly from my then-girlfriend (and now-wife) specifically requesting a lab-grown diamond. Suddenly, I was paying attention to this sector. The more I researched it, the more I realised that mined diamonds were in huge trouble.

This disruption has been even more extreme than Chinese cars disrupting European and Japanese brands. Where the Chinese are offering an acceptable substitute at a much lower price, lab-grown diamonds are a perfect substitute at a vastly lower price. That’s a recipe for serious change in an industry.

With names like De Beers struggling to carve out a sustainable future, Meya Mining in Sierra Leone (part of the Trustco portfolio) doesn’t stand much of a chance.

Although Meya Mining raised a $25 million facility earlier this year, things have gotten even worse since then. The asset is in care and maintenance based on conditions in the diamond market, with this status set to continue until at least the fourth quarter of the 2026 financial year.

The risk to Meya is significant, with the auditors flagging a going concern risk in the 2025 financial statements. Although Trustco hasn’t provided any guarantees, Trustco does have a loan receivable of $46 million from Meya. The recoverability of this loan is clearly in doubt, with Trustco considering the carrying value of that loan as part of its current audit procedures.

Ghost Bite: Essentially, Trustco is flagging a substantial potential impairment here. There’s already a huge amount of noise around the company, so this won’t do them any favours.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) converted warrants into ordinary shares worth a juicy R16.4 million.
    • A founding director of Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) sold shares worth over R2 million.
    • An independent non-executive director of CA Sales Holdings (JSE: CAA) bought shares in the company on the Botswana Stock Exchange to the value of around R170k. The awkward part is that the first trade was on 29 April 2026, so this isn’t exactly a timeous notification by that director.
    • A director of Santova (JSE: SNT) sold shares worth R119k.
    • A director of Trematon (JSE: TMT) bought shares worth R4.1k.
  • In late May this year, MAS (JSE: MSP) announced the disposal of various assets, including six open-air malls in Romania. That specific disposal has now been completed. When the deal was first announced, MAS expected the net selling price to be €197.7 million (based on the property values, less the bank loans specific to the entities holding the properties). The latest announcement doesn’t give an updated number, so we have to assume that this is how things ended up.
  • Prosus (JSE: PRX) has been having a tough time on the market this year thanks to the selling pressure on Tencent. But if you look beyond this issue, you’ll find that the ecosystems business has become cash flow positive. This helps the Prosus balance sheet tremendously, with numerous knock-on benefits including access to debt. The company is now refinancing $1 billion in notes due in January 2027 and $614 million due in July 2027. These will be replaced by notes due in 2036 and 2033, priced at between 5.528% and 5.873%. This gives you a good idea of the cost of the group’s debt funding.
  • If you’re paying very close attention to Burstone (JSE: BTN), then be aware that the company picked up some errors in the reviewed financial statements for the year ended March 2026. Seeing a “change statement” is a rarity on the JSE, but it does happen from time to time, as reviewed financials are released before the final audit is completed. The change is a minor deterioration in the diluted loss per share, along with a few other changes to how certain numbers are classified. It doesn’t look material overall.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has received approval to transfer its listing to the General Segment of the Main Board of the JSE. This is certainly a step in the right direction. The effective date of the transfer is 13 July 2026.
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