Monday, March 2, 2026
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Ghost Stories #93: Budget Speech 2026 – a pivot to stability

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South Africa’s 2026 Budget Speech announced a mix of bold, interesting and ultimately positive changes – especially for small businesses and South African investors. With pro-business policies that signal economic stability, could this be a turning point for the country?

Described affectionately by Tertius Troost (Associate Director – Tax Consulting at Forvis Mazars) as a “boring” budget, this is the first time in years that we’ve seen any kind of tax relief for South Africa’s middle class. In his words, it’s a pivot to stability – and at a time when things are really looking up for South Africa.

He joined me on this podcast to break down the budget basics and to specifically comment on areas like:

  • How the budget addresses “bracket creep” by adjusting personal income tax brackets for inflation. 
  • The increase in the VAT registration threshold and how this assists small businesses.
  • A boost for investors in the form of a higher annual limit for Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSA).
  • The approach taken to online gambling and whether education and regulation should precede taxes.
  • Other changes aimed at helping South Africans with retirements savings and even global investments.

You can connect with Tertius on LinkedIn here.

As always, please discuss the impact of the tax changes on your affairs with your personal financial advisor. Nothing you hear on this podcast should be interpreted as advice.

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. We are coming to you very soon after the budget speech in South Africa, which is obviously a really interesting time for all of us. 

And I think this 2026 budget speech has been quite different, actually. My overview is that it feels a bit more pro-growth; maybe a bit more pro-business. We are in a GNU environment now, so winds of change seem to have been blowing a little bit at least. 

To help us understand some of the key elements of this budget speech, I am joined today by Tertius Troost. He is the associate director in the tax consulting team at Forvis Mazars. He’s also no stranger to the Ghost Mail audience because we had a very similar podcast last year. 

So, Tertius, thanks so much for doing this with me again in 2026; I can’t wait to get your thoughts on this budget.

Tertius Troost: Brilliant, thanks for having me.

The Finance Ghost: It’s going to be good. There’s a lot of stuff we can talk about here, and I think what we’re going to not do is try and just give a general overview of everything because to be honest, there’s been a lot of that in the market already. What we’re rather going to do is actually dig into some of the specific points. 

But we do need to set the scene at least a little bit, right? So let me start by asking you if you feel like my gut feeling is on the money. Is this more of a pro-growth type budget? It feels to me like they’re being a bit nicer these days to businesses, to the middle class. Would that be a fair assertion?

Tertius Troost: Ya, I’ll summarise it in two ways. I think yesterday’s budget is definitely the turning-point type of narrative. It sees a lot of stabilising of debt. We saw that from next year onwards, we definitely should see a decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio, where it’s going to peak at about 78.9%. 

And then obviously, as you said, definitely pro-growth with changes to the thresholds, which is something that we’ve been waiting for, for quite a long time. To summarise, it has a little bit of excitement, but at the same time, it’s actually also a boring budget. But in this environment, a boring budget is actually a good budget.

And then obviously the main talking point: while it’s also probably good for growth and good for the man on the street, it’s just the withdrawal of the bracket creep that they actually said they would be implementing last year for the next two years. So I mean that’s very positive for people to see. 

Generally, it also has a culture of better savings, looking to increase the thresholds there. It’s generally a budget that was well-received by the public.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it feels like we’re in a better macroeconomic environment now than we have been in a very long time. 

And obviously, that takes some of the pressure off, right? Because at the end of the day, the budget is the income statement for our government. If the economy is not doing well and investment is not coming through, then obviously there’s more pressure on the fiscus. 

Because we do have a somewhat left-leaning, somewhat socialist government where there are a lot of social grants, there’s a lot of support for the poor – you end up in a scenario where they have to squeeze more from this very small tax base. That’s certainly been the narrative for as long as I can remember. Literally. 

I guess at the moment things like commodities, for example, are helping, right? I mean you’ve literally got money coming out of the ground right now in gold, in PGMs. Our tourism has been doing well (as another example).

It feels like things are doing better in South Africa and maybe this budget reflects that?

Tertius Troost: Yes, I mean macro wise, when you look at the budget review document, they predict growth of 1.6% in ‘26 and going up to 1.8% and 2% up in 2028. So it’s still not shooting the lights out, but it does at least come off as a very low base. We were looking at growth south of 1%.

So this is the point – as soon as we can get the economy growing, we can increase tax revenue. We can definitely see that the increased tax revenue will lead to – well, hopefully – better use of that tax revenue. Thereby growing the economy organically and growing the tax base, which we’ve always said is the most important. 

You have to highlight the fact that what the commodities are doing is a very important factor here. It is very cyclical, it’s not something that will remain there forever. So while that is a positive sentiment and while we’re getting good money from it, I think the tax is going to do well. 

I think the big picture from this budget is relief where it counts. It’s definitely support for small businesses, and it’s a pivot to stability. And that is the essential part.

The Finance Ghost: Pivot to stability is a nice way to put it. I like it. And also just describing it as boring. Like you say, boring is good. And people forget, when it comes to economic growth, that when you’re in a slow-growth environment, if your country is expected to do 1% and then suddenly it’s expected to do 1.5%, it’s actually growing 50% faster than before. 

It’s like that law of small numbers. 1.5% is 50% bigger than 1% in terms of growth. It’s 50 basis points more. It’s a really big difference. It makes a huge, huge difference. And that’s why we’ve got to try and actually extract this growth so that everyone can benefit. 

And it comes through in things like as you described it there, bracket creep. So for those who are maybe not familiar with the term, it just means (by my understanding) that for years, a good few years, we haven’t really had an increase in the brackets for personal tax. And so people’s salaries go up with inflation, in theory at least. 

But your effective average tax rate goes up because the brackets haven’t moved with inflation, right? But now they’ve actually moved them. So have they done a proper catch-up in the past few years (in this move) or have they just given a little bit of year-on-year relief?

Tertius Troost: Let me just give an analogy for the listeners, so they can better understand.  This weekend we’ve got the SA Open (golf tournament). Let’s use that as an example. 

Let’s say you go to play at Stellenbosch Golf Club every week; you’re teeing off of the same markers, you’re very consistent off the tee and going into the green for two. And then you arrive there one day and you see it’s been the SA open, the tee box is right at the back with the pros, and they’ve put the tee box there. And all of a sudden you hit the same tee shot and you’re sitting with a position where you just say, “Well, I can’t make it to the green”. And that’s pretty much what bracket creep is. Right?

The Finance Ghost: I love that.

Tertius Troost: It’s just a little bit of a sneaky way of getting a little bit more tax out of you. And it’s a sneaky way because it gets it from a number of people. 

Again, let’s use an example. I earn R300,000 per year. I get an inflationary increase of 6% (let’s just say inflation is 6%). That actually puts me in the same position I was in last year. From a purchasing point of view, I can only buy the same amount of goods with this increase.

But now they didn’t change the brackets. So the tax I will pay on the increase, the R318,000 salary after my increase, will actually be slightly higher. That is the impact. 

So your tax on that is just that little bit more and it’s very small. But once again, if you take a little bit off each and every single person, it leads to significantly more income to the fiscus.

And then I think the point is the brackets were only adjusted for 3.4% because as we know with the SARB trying to cap the inflation rate nearer to the 3%, that is what they believe inflation is now. 

But it is interesting to note, that’s not everyone’s inflation. For your high earners, the inflation is significantly higher because they’re buying different goods. [Laughs].

It is a little bit of a relief. It’s not significant, but it’s at least something.

The Finance Ghost: I love the golf analogy. It is exactly that, right? One year you’re arriving for the club champs and the next day you are suddenly playing against Ernie Els. That’s certainly what it’s felt like for the past decade – like teeing off against Ernie. It still feels a bit like that, but maybe it’s starting to get better, which is nice. 

Another area where I think they’ve given important relief (and specifically as a small business owner, and I think this is really important) is that VAT registration threshold. It used to be a million rand a year in turnover.

Now, most business owners will tell you that a million rand a year turnover is really not a lot. That’s not a million rand a year profit, that’s not gross margin, it’s turnover. So that’s before any of your expenses whatsoever. A million rand a year revenue is not a big business in any way, shape or form. 

And yet there was this requirement to register for VAT. Now, that might not sound like a big deal, and for businesses that are supplying other VAT-registered businesses, it’s not a big deal because your customers just claim back the VAT. It’s not the end of the world. 

But if you are a consumer-facing business, you are essentially the last step in the chain. And that’s how VAT works. It’s Value-Added Tax. So it just keeps on growing through the value chain, until you hit someone who’s not VAT registered – and that person is basically suffering all the VAT and can’t claim it back. 

But if you are supplying people who are not VAT-registered and you suddenly have to register for VAT, you are basically having 15% ripped out of your income and going to the government. Which on turnover of a million rand a year, is a little bit insane. 

So I was personally happy to see (as someone who has small businesses at heart all the time), that they’ve increased that threshold quite a lot. I mean it’s up significantly now?

Tertius Troost: Yeah. So the threshold moved up from R1 million to R2.3 million in annual turnover, as you pointed out. And what is important to note, is that this was last amended in 2009. That’s 17 years ago. This had to happen.

The Finance Ghost: It’s insane right? It’s so long. 17 years! [Laughs]. 

Tertius Troost: And I’m also a homeowner, so I also have people coming across needing to fix things every now and then. And every time someone adds that 15% to your bill, then you feel “ugh!” – you can feel that tangibly; you can feel it in your pocket. 

So hopefully you get to a position where the smaller businesses that we sometimes use don’t need to register, they’re not adding the 15% on top of it. And maybe that at least means some money in their pocket, too. 

If you’re actually adding certain value, as you said, you could claim certain inputs if you are registered for VAT, but that’s not for all small businesses. By lifting the threshold, Treasury is effectively removing certain businesses from the VAT net and promoting smaller businesses. 

That means that there’s less time for them on compliance. As you pointed out, that is a significant cost for a small business who doesn’t necessarily understand it. It results in more predictable cash flow, you’re not having to claim inputs and flow outputs. It’s the ability to price more competitively. You’re no longer carrying that 15%. You can compete against the bigger businesses if you don’t need to add that.

It’s a subtle acknowledgement of the economic reality – inflation and rising costs have pushed the businesses up. This R1 million threshold is way too low. The R2.3 million is more in line with what it should be. 

Take note, it’s 17 years. It’s more than double. But I think if you were to increase that with inflation, it would probably be even more. But at least it shows you that they are looking into these types of things. Hopefully they will keep these thresholds and brackets and limits, and they’ll just review them on a more regular basis. Because there were quite a few of these thresholds that will change in this budget.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. 17 years to not go anywhere, is absolutely bonkers. And as you say, it’s the compliance burden, right? And also, SARS’ behavior with VAT. If you throw a stone in a room full of entrepreneurs, I promise you’ll hit someone who has waited for a VAT refund for an unreasonably long time. I’ve heard that story so many times, so it’s nice to hear that that is improving. 

I think that probably gives us a nice lay of the land of some of the really important changes. There are many more, and we’ll obviously touch on some of them now. But something that keeps coming up – and now that we are in earnings season, I’m seeing it again – is that every consumer-facing business in the country right now, when they talk about the macroeconomic environment and what’s happening to their sales, etc, they keep raising this point around online gambling and gaming. 

There’s a piece of me that thinks that at least to some extent, it’s a convenient scapegoat, but there’s also an element of truth to it. People are spending a fortune on this stuff. It is an extractive industry, essentially. It’s not leading to employment of South Africans, etcetera. The money’s going overseas.

It feels like an easy place for government to actually have a go here. It’s practically a sin tax. So I’m curious about what their thinking is on taxing and getting their fair share of this. Maybe if it was actually taxed properly then it would be slightly less appealing for people and they would spend a little bit less on online gambling and gaming and a little bit more in our economy, which is ultimately what creates jobs?

Tertius Troost: Let’s just maybe take a step back, (to ask) – what is it? I mean it’s a national online gambling tax and it’s looking to tax 20% on the gross gambling revenue (they refer to the GGR) which is the net amount that these institutions receive, less what they pay out.

Now, this is on top of existing provincial gambling taxes, which can range between 5% and 9%.

And what’s interesting in Treasury’s discussion document is that they say this is not a revenue driver. This is just to stop, as you said, the social harms and discourage problem gambling. And as you mentioned, there’s a lot of talk about people using grants to gamble, students using the amounts that they receive to gamble. That’s not sustainable. 

But in terms of where we are at with the process, Treasury has released the discussion paper. The public comments closed on Friday, and following that, they will then relook at the public comments and try to draft the bill around it. That’s also open, once again, the draft legislation to public comment, to see whether it fulfils.

But I wanted to talk about whether this actually will work – because as you stated, we’re trying to discourage online gambling. As you said, Treasury said it’s not a revenue driver, it’s to discourage. 

But the problem is – shouldn’t you regulate first and tax second? Because if we take an example of someone smoking, they did a lot more around the behaviour change and then taxed thereafter. They regulated the way they advertised; they regulated where you could smoke. So maybe they should first look at those elements and then if need be, say yes, okay, let’s add the sin tax.

The further point is, this is a tax that’s proposed on the actual corporate entity and not on the individual. If you’re trying to change behavior, you should actually do more taxes on individuals. If sin taxes are on the product that the people use, then they don’t want to use it. Shouldn’t (government) be looking at certain withholding taxes – on either winnings or on the amounts that they’re betting? That will maybe look at changing the use of it. 

I think the first point that Treasury should look at is just the regulation around gambling and the effective policing thereof, and thereafter maybe looking at “Okay, let’s see if we can tax”. 

But the other point is, I know Treasury says it’s not a revenue driver, but I don’t believe it. 

All taxes in South Africa are revenue drivers. We look at the sugar tax in the past. It had a nice story around it of, “we’re trying to help people to live better lives”. If you look at all that money, it just goes into a pot for the fiscus and they use it. They don’t do a specific targeted use of that. That’s just my view.

The Finance Ghost: It’s a really interesting point. They’re taxing the corporate, not the individual. That does talk to behaviour, and maybe government is not that worried about the behaviour. 

I have sometimes had these debates with people where they say, “you know, it’s so terrible that someone gambles online”. And obviously there are extremes. Taking your social grants and gambling online is clearly a no-no. 

But I don’t know so much that it’s so terrible that if you would have spent R100 on clothes you actually don’t need or you spent that R100 entertaining yourself online betting on your favorite soccer team. I mean it’s R100 out the door on something you didn’t need anyway. Is it really so terrible? Within reason, it’s ok. 

I guess it’s like anything. People want to entertain themselves, they want to have fun. As much as it might irritate the clothing retailers that they’re not selling quite as much in the way of clothing. Like I say, an extra item of clothing in the cupboard versus entertaining yourself –  is it really so different? 

So government seems to be saying, well, “we’re going to see where this thing lands, what we really want to do is just plug the tax hole, because that’s where it is a problem.” If someone buys local clothing, there’s a whole value chain, right? There’s tax, there’s earnings here – government gets a slice of that. But if you go and swipe your card and you gamble overseas, the money’s gone.

Tertius Troost: I think there have been studies though, that this isn’t necessarily in our environment only for recreational purposes. People in South Africa gamble with the belief that they can get themselves out of poverty and win a big amount. And that is the problem that we have. So it’s actually more of an education aspect in line with that. 

The Finance Ghost: That’s very fair. There’s a huge percentage – like you say, maybe the trick is, it needs to be this regulatory piece where there’s lots of education. Maybe showing people that you’re much more likely to lose than win here. This is not an income, this is a form of entertainment. That probably does need to happen out there, and hopefully it will.

That’s going to be an interesting thing to see in years to come. 

In the meantime, of course, SARS is very focused on making sure we have more taxpayers, which obviously just spreads the burden out. 

There was an interesting comment that I know you wanted to talk about, which was around a comment, and I quote, “Supported by new technology, they registered 1.3 million new taxpayers across various tax categories.” And this piece was interesting: “Engaged with social influencers to facilitate tax compliance.” 

I did have a small laugh at that. I imagined someone doing an Instagram video with the SARS logo in the background. “Brought to you by SARS. Please also register for tax”. I’m not really sure how this is working in practice, but I was curious about your thoughts on that one [Laughs]. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs]. I thought you’d like that, Ghost. The important part there is that the registration of the 1.3 million new tax base actually brought in R4.9 in additional revenue.

Yes, Treasury did mention an aspect about content creators and influencers, but what you must also understand is that there are some people in the country that should be registered, maybe people from abroad that don’t know they’re tax resident in South Africa. 

I’ve had a few of those as clients – that arrive on my doorstep saying SARS knocked on their door because they purchased the property. They’re now on SARS’ radar. All of a sudden when I look at the facts, I see, “oh, but you’ve been a resident in the country for quite a while and you owe them quite a significant amount of tax”.

So it just shows that SARS’ technology and their administration is working well, and that the extra amount that Treasury provided to them in the budget last year is being used well when we look at investment into technology. 

The point around influencers, content creators, it’s something that has been in the media, and it’s quite topical. These people are definitely subject to tax. What is interesting, though, is that they might be subject to tax on the products that they receive in kind or the services that they receive in kind.

Sometimes when you promote the product, you are actually paid physical money. So definitely that is something that those people should be registered for – they should be paying provisional tax and they should be filing a tax return. It just goes to show, again: educate the public and tell people that there are taxes that they should look into. 

Once again, I’m very impressed with SARS under Edward Kieswetter. I know he’s ending his term now in April. We don’t have any guidance on who would be new, but at least they’re taking over a ship that seems to be sailing in the right direction, with regards to the use of technology, AI, and those types of aspects. I think it’s something positive.

The Finance Ghost: It’s amazing what happens when you put a commercial person in charge, right? But that does make sense. It’s less about using social influencers to achieve the registrations, but rather to go after the influencers themselves! 

Maybe that’s the trick. It’s like, “hey, we’ll work with you, we’ll pay you in order to get some people to register for tax”. And as you say, yes, they’re like, “Ha! Gotcha. You should be paying tax because clearly this is your business.” You’ve got to love it. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs] 

The Finance Ghost: Anyway, let’s talk about some of the other relief that actually came through in this budget. There was one that made me very happy, which was that tax-free savings account (TFSA) contributions are now higher.

I always say to people, if you’re going to get just one thing right every year, just please max out your TFSA. And not everyone can do it. But what you should absolutely not be doing is dabbling in single stocks and everything else, if you haven’t even maxed your TFSA. It is literally the government giving you this walled garden to go and build up your ETF exposure over your lifetime. 

You can chop and change between the ETFs with no tax. You’re basically turning yourself into a little fund manager. You just have to stick to ETFs. You’re not allowed to buy single stocks. It’s such an absolute no-brainer. And I was happy to see that that contribution has gone up.

Tertius Troost: Yeah, most definitely. As you say, max it out for yourself, max it out for your spouse, max it out for your kids. It’s definitely a no-brainer. So that increased from an annual limit of R36,000 per year to R46,000 per year. But what is interesting is that they didn’t change the lifetime limit, so it’s still limited to R500,000 that you can invest in your lifetime.

But that does just change the timing. It would take you less than 11 years – if you’re doing it on an annual basis – to get to that.

There are many studies that show that if you start (saving) very early, even if you start it for your kids and you leave it for when your kids reach retirement age, they can pretty much retire off that amount. That’s how compound growth will really work. 

What I wanted to talk about was how it’s kind of hidden away, but there was some targeted relief to higher earners because, like I said, not everyone can afford the tax-free savings account and the full contribution to it. 

Also, the retirement contribution deduction cap was lifted from R350 000 to R430 000. Once again, not everyone can get close to that – but it shows that there is definitely a bit of a give-back to the higher earner if they’re willing to save. 

It says if you earn more, then Treasury wants you to save more, and if you can build capital, do it locally. So do it in our TFSAs; do it in our retirement funds. Then it’s just a structured,  incentivised financial discipline, rather than a blunt tax break. They’re not just saying, “We’re going to give you relief and keep the higher earners here”. We actually do it by providing them with additional methods to save in South Africa.

The Finance Ghost: And it’s great to see. The one thing with the tax free savings cap – and I’ve seen a lot of this as well – people are quite rightly saying, “Hey, where’s the increase in the cap?”. But of course if you do the maths, it’s been around for 11 years, as you said. So you couldn’t actually have reached the cap yet, mathematically. 

But we’re going to get there in the next couple of years, and then obviously Treasury will have to look at increasing the cap, right? Otherwise, they are punishing people who started really early, which would be silly behaviour.

Tertius Troost: If you listen to the comments by Treasury, they’re saying that – I don’t know whether they’re going to raise it. I think they’re going to keep it there for quite a while, because I mean you’re still getting that tax-free growth in it.

Hopefully – I do agree that in the future they should, but it’s probably going to be, everyone reaches the cap and they’ll probably leave it for a couple of years thereafter, before really looking at it.

The Finance Ghost: Ya absolutely. And the one thing that’s really interesting is, as you say, they’re trying to encourage you to grow your capital here in South Africa. But they’ve also made it easier to take money out of the country now, haven’t they? They’ve actually given some more relief in that as well.

Tertius Troost: Ya. That’s an exchange-control change. As we know, you can flow capital out of the country but it is subject to certain rules and regulations, specifically monitored by the Reserve Bank through the authorised dealers (which are the commercial banks). And one of those rules was that on an annual basis, without obtaining any form of tax clearance certificate, you could take R1 million out of the country. But now they’ve actually pushed that up to R2 million. So that’s also positive. 

Once again, this is not aimed at everyone. This is people trying to really hedge their bets and maybeget some hard currency offshore. So that is also just positive. It’s just a little bit less of an administrative burden for those people trying to flow money out.

The Finance Ghost: A couple of other ones we should touch on before I let you go. I know donations tax saw a change, primary residence exclusion as well – perhaps you can just take us through those?

Tertius Troost: Yeah. So with the donations tax, there was always a limit of a hundred thousand. That’s not subject to donations tax. That’s lifted to R150 000. Being a homeowner, the primary residence exclusion has lifted from R2 million to R3 million. That’s not necessarily for people owning houses in the Joburg market, it probably won’t help them much. But I know people in the Cape Town market will really love that. [Laughs]. 

The Finance Ghost: I joked with a friend, “Wow, you know, garden sheds in Cape Town are now out of the net. How exciting!” I mean, it is a bit of a joke, how ridiculous the property markets are across the two cities. 

But it was high time that they increased that primary residence exclusion, let’s be honest. I would say your Joburg property is now basically a tax-free asset from a capital gains perspective. Unfortunately. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs]. Let me put it in the tax-free savings account, and then it’ll be regular savings.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, essentially. The overview of this thing: it really does feel like it’s a pro-growth budget. We’re giving relief to people where government has historically been squeezing them. And that’s what’s so interesting. 

I mean, you and I both do it because it’s just how we’ve been conditioned. It’s like, “Oh, you know, it’s good news on tax-free savings and we know that not everyone can afford it, but it’s good news”. 

Because everyone is so browbeaten into always thinking about, “How on earth do we help people who have nothing, at the expense of the middle class?” The truth of it is you can only do that for so long – and then it actually starts to have the opposite effect. 

Because you cannot cannot squeeze the middle class into…not working poverty (per se) – obviously people still have way better quality of life than those who are genuinely on the breadline – but you do squeeze them into a point where, they’re not having as many kids, and they’re not spending, and they’re not doing all of this kind of thing which actually grows the economy. 

I think something like Curro becoming essentially a non-profit organisation is a cautionary tale for the middle class in South Africa. Where people have emigrated or are having fewer children, yes, it’s a global phenomenon, but this tax squeeze is part of it. 

And so for me personally, just seeing stuff like this is really encouraging because they are now giving tax relief to the people who are actually working, investing, and then creating jobs for others, which, as a capitalist, as I am, makes me feel like that’s the right thing for the country to be doing. So that we actually get people to see a future here, which I think they’re starting to do, as opposed to a few years ago, when it was looking pretty bleak. 

That’s kind of my summary of the budget. I’d be keen to get your final thoughts, and then I’ll let you go.

Tertius Troost: Yeah, I completely agree. I think South Africa is really poised for growth. It’s ready to turn that corner. I’ve summarised it like this before, and I’ll reiterate it: it’s a budget where relief is where it counts. It supports small businesses, and it’s a pivot to stability.

I think that’s clear-cut. You can’t get a better summary than that.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Tertius, thank you so much for your time again this year. Really appreciate it. We are operating in an exciting place in the world at the moment, in my opinion. 

I’m pretty bullish on South Africa, and it’s nice to see this kind of thing coming through. So well done to those in government who made it happen. I know who you are, and you know who you are. So congratulations to you.

And Tertius, if I don’t get to do another one of these with you this year, I’ll certainly see you for the budget next year, I’m sure. But perhaps later this year, we’ll touch base on what’s going on in the world of tax again.

Tertius Troost: Most definitely. Looking forward to it. Thanks, Ghost.   

The Finance Ghost: Ciao.

From spelunker to spactacle: the Floyd Collins story

A desperate bid to create Kentucky’s next cave attraction spiralled into one of America’s first media frenzies. Floyd Collins went underground in a bid to attract tourists and ended up as the spectacle they came to see.

Let’s go back in time together, dear reader. 

The year is 1925, and you are a traveller passing through Cave City, Kentucky. The name of this place is not foreign to you – even those who have never visited this area before have heard the stories of the massive network of caves that stretches for kilometres under the surface of this little town. Perhaps some of your friends or relatives have visited this place and paid their coins for the privilege of being chaperoned into the caves by one of the many local guides. 

Even though cave tourism is at the height of its popularity in the US, the ratio of tourists to poor farmers trying to make a living is so unbalanced that locals are in constant competition with each other over the right to own and show caves, practically pulling at visitors like vultures squabbling over scraps. On most days, the town is eerily quiet.

This day is different though – today, this sleepy little town is wide awake and bustling with activity. The streets are flooded with out-of-towners. The local hotel is fully booked, and the only restaurant in town has run out of food to serve. Tourists are paying enterprising homeowners premium rates to sleep on their bedroom floors, or in their mattress-lined bathtubs. On the outskirts of town, a gathering that closely resembles a large fair is taking place, with stands erected to sell hamburgers, hot dogs and souvenirs. Moonshiners lurk around the outskirts, selling suspicious-looking bottles (remember, we’re deep in the Prohibition era here). There is even a juggler present. 

“What is the occasion?” you ask an attendee of the festival, expecting to hear that it is the town mayor’s birthday, or perhaps some religious day of celebration. The answer surprises you: all of these people – about 10,000 in total – are here because a man is stuck in a nearby cave. 

That man is Floyd Collins, and this is what happened to him. 

Back to where it started

William Floyd Collins was born in 1887 on the Collins family farm, about 6 kilometers from Mammoth Cave, the sprawling cave system that gave Cave City both its name and its purpose. Floyd began exploring caves as a child, initially searching for Native American artifacts he could sell to visitors at the Mammoth Cave Hotel. By adulthood, cave exploration had evolved from curiosity into something closer to a long-shot business strategy.

Like most of their neighbours, the Collins family attempted to make a living by farming on the thin and sandy soil, and as a result they were quite poor. This looked like it might change in 1917, when Floyd discovered a cave (which he later named Great Crystal Cave) on their land. The Collins did what any ambitious operators in the Cave Wars era would have done: they immediately set about turning the cave into a tourist attraction. The plan was solid, the name was enticing and the cave was impressive, but unfortunately, geography proved stubborn. Floyd’s Great Crystal Cave was simply too remote, and visitor numbers remained underwhelming. 

While location was definitely the crux of the problem, sly competitors certainly didn’t help. By the 1920s, dozens of rival “show caves” were in operation across the region, all operated by families who were equally poor and desperate. Competition was creative and, at times, spectacularly dishonest. Promoters dressed as police officers would position themselves along the road to intercept visitors, confidently informing them that the caves they sought were unsafe or closed before redirecting them to “better” or “safer” caves (read: their own). In more committed moments of entrepreneurship, rivals burned ticket booths, blocked access roads and vandalised competing sites. Everyone was chasing the same prize – passing tourists with spending money – and the margins for success were thin.

Floyd, who was equal parts explorer and entrepreneur, knew exactly what he needed next – a cave closer to the main entrance to Mammoth Cave, where tourist traffic flowed more naturally. In early 1925, he believed he had his breakthrough. Working largely alone, he discovered and began enlarging a narrow opening that would later be known as Sand Cave. Risking life and limb on a hope, he crawled through tight underground passages, some no higher than 22 centimeters in places, convinced that somewhere just ahead of him lay a larger chamber – and perhaps the changing of his family’s fortunes. 

An opportunity for disaster

For weeks, Floyd worked methodically to make Sand Cave accessible enough for future tourists, clearing rocks by hand and carrying them out of the cave one bucketfull at a time.  Then, on 30 January 1925, after several hours underground, his gas lamp began to fade. Floyd knew what this meant: he needed to exit the cave before it ran out completely, otherwise he would soon be stranded in complete darkness. 

As he hastily tried to get out, he became trapped in a narrow horizontal passage. In an attempt to wriggle out, he managed to knock over his gas lamp, breaking it and dousing himself in darkness. It was a bad situation, but Floyd wasn’t panicking yet – he was an experienced caver, and he knew this particular cave very well. Could he navigate it in the dark? He reckoned he could. He felt with his foot for something that he could step against in order to boost himself out of the passage, and accidentally pressed down on an unstable rock hanging out of the ceiling of the passage. The 12kg rock immediately became detached and pinned his left ankle, simultaneously bringing down torrents of loose gravel that buried his entire body. Only his neck and head remained free. 

Floyd was trapped on his back in complete darkness, 46 meters from the entrance of the cave and 17 meters underground, on the other side of a passage so narrow that few men were brave or limber enough to squeeze through. The cave he hoped to turn into an attraction had apparently decided to keep him.

Call in the cavalry

Neighbours eventually realised Collins was missing. They located him quickly (it was well known that he was working at Sand Cave), but faced an immediate logistical problem: almost no one could physically reach him through the tight passageways. Only his younger brother, Homer, who was smaller and more agile, was able (and willing) to squeeze through in order to assess the situation and to bring food and water. Word of the trapped caver spread quickly. Soon, the media arrived. Then came the crowds.

Newspaper reporter William “Skeets” Miller of The Courier-Journal was the second person to brave the narrow cave passages in order to interview Floyd in person. He began writing vivid updates from the scene, which were published across the state. His reporting, transmitted by telegraph and amplified by the still-novel medium of radio, transformed the rescue attempt into a national fixation. Within days, Sand Cave had become the tourist destination that Floyd had hoped it would. 

A race against time

There was, however, a grim operational downside to all this attention. The sheer number of spectators lighting campfires warmed the winter air enough to melt natural ice inside Sand Cave. Icy water began pooling underground, including inside the passage where Floyd lay trapped. Over the course of 17 long days, rescue teams tried multiple approaches to get him free. One attempt to hoist him out of the passage by harness only injured him further, and engineers eventually concluded that the only viable option was to dig a vertical shaft down toward his position – an enormous undertaking for the time, as it had to be done with nothing but shovels and pickaxes.

They worked against the clock. At every juncture, the cave presented a new challenge. Melting ice resulted in slippery mud underfoot. Stabilising beams began to splinter and crack. Regular cave-ins spooked rescuers and eventually completely cut off the only passage that connected Foyed to the outside world, making it impossible for supplies to be taken to him. On 16 February 1925, after 11 days of digging, miner Ed Brenner finally reached Floyd. He was already dead, having succumbed several days earlier, most likely from exposure. The man who had spent his life searching for commercially viable caves had instead become the centre of one of the largest media spectacles of the interwar years.

And this particular cave system was not finished with him yet.

The afterlife of Floyd Collins

Initially, Floyd’s body remained where he died, and funeral services were held above ground. His brother Homer, deeply unhappy with the arrangement, later organised an effort to retrieve the remains. On 23 April 1925, diggers employed and paid by Homer successfully removed Floyd’s body and buried him in the family cemetery beneath a stalagmite headstone. 

One might reasonably expect the story to end there. It did not. In 1927, with tourism revenues struggling and finances tight, Floyd’s father sold the family farm to dentist Dr. Harry B. Thomas. Included in the deal was a clause that feels, even by Cave Wars standards, unusually grim: Dr. Thomas would own everything on the Collins farm, including the houses, the farming equipment, the Great Crystal Cave… and Floyd’s buried body. Wasting no time at all, Dr. Thomas exhumed Floyd’s remains and had them displayed in a glass-topped coffin inside the reopened Great Crystal Cave Cave. For the price of $10,000, the man who spent his last days wishing to be rescued from a cave was instead returned to one. 

Visitors soon began arriving to view the embalmed remains of the man billed as the “Greatest Cave Explorer Ever Known”. For a brief moment in 1929 it seemed as though Floyd would finally be free, when a duo of grave robbers stole his body and attempted to throw it into the Green River. It landed in a bush instead, where it was found by sniffer dogs and returned to its resting place in the cave. The theft prompted Dr. Thomas to secure the coffin with two thick metal chains and a pair of large padlocks. No further attempts at theft were made. For decades – 32 years in total – Floyd Collins remained chained inside the cave he discovered, a prisoner of the tourism economy he had once hoped to master. 

Finally, at rest

In 1961, the US government purchased Great Crystal Cave with Floyd still inside, and public access was eventually closed. Only in 1989 – an astonishing 64 years after his death – were his remains finally re-interred in a Baptist cemetery. By then, history had vindicated much of his original instinct.

The Great Crystal Cave proved far more valuable than even Floyd’s wildest estimations suggested. The government acquisition price of $285,000 (over $2 million in today’s terms) confirmed what he had long believed: the limestone beneath Kentucky held serious economic promise. Even more striking, modern cave mapping confirmed his long-held hunch that all of the region’s caves were interconnected. Today, the Mammoth cave system stretches across almost 650 kilometers, securing its status as the world’s longest known cave network.

The Sand Cave rescue became one of the first modern media spectacles, thanks to a convergence of real-time reporting, mass curiosity and roadside commerce. It demonstrated, years before most marketers would formally articulate it, that attention itself can become an economic force. Tourism, at its most intense, has always hovered near the boundary between fascination and spectacle. The same public appetite that fills national parks and heritage sites can, under the right conditions, transform misfortune into morbid attraction.

Floyd Collins went underground in 1925 hoping to build the next great show cave. Instead, the cave built the show around him.

The facts presented in this article were referenced from the incredibly detailed research and writings of Lucas Reilly. Reilly spent months interviewing park rangers, reading archived newspapers and even visiting Mammoth Cave himself. You can appreciate his work on Cave City and Floyd Collins here

Ghost Bites (Discovery | Fortress Real Estate | KAP | Libstar | Nedbank | OUTsurance | Spur | Tiger Brands | Truworths)

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Discovery is achieving excellent growth in profits (JSE: DSY)

Discovery Bank has posted positive earnings

Discovery has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. With the share price closing 7.6% higher on the day, you know it’s a goodie.

Normalised profit from operations is up by between 22% and 27%, while normalised headline earnings should be up by between 25% and 30%. Those are excellent growth rates.

If you dig a bit deeper, Discovery Insurance was one of the highlights (growth of 32% to 37%). Another bright spot is Discovery Bank, which looks like it made at least R65 million in profit vs. a loss in the prior period of R145 million. They are acquiring around 1,500 customers per day in the bank.

Along with solid growth in Discovery Life of 13% to 18%, this was good enough to propel Discovery SA forward by between 16% and 21%.

As for the rest of the growth, investors will love seeing Ping An up by between 33% and 38%. Vitality is up strongly as well overall, although elements of it were affected by currency movements (specifically Vitality Network in Japan).

Results are due on 3rd March. In the meantime, investors might treat themselves to a smoothie thanks to a share price increase of 25% over the past year.


A healthy balance sheet and solid earnings growth at Fortress Real Estate (JSE: FFB)

The total return (share price + dividend) over 12 months is above 40%

Fortress Real Estate is an interesting fund. They have logistics properties worth R24.1 billion, with exposure to South Africa as well as Central and Eastern Europe. They have retail properties in South Africa worth R11.9 billion. They also have a 14.2% stake in NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) worth R15.4 billion.

Like most property groups, Fortress has earmarked certain properties for sale. They note that conditions in the property sector are improving over time, so they are being patient with the sales in order to get the best possible exit. The results for the six months to December 2025 reflect like-for-like net operating income (NOI) growth in the retail and logistics portfolios of 6.7%, so I tend to believe them.

Vacancies are down, tenant turnover is up and the sun seems to be shining on the fund at the moment. For example, the retail portfolio’s like-for-like NOI growth of 7.0% is more than double the rate of inflation.

The performance for the interim period is strong enough to give the group confidence to upgrade distributable earnings guidance for the full year. They now anticipate growth of 10% for FY26.

For the interim period, distributable earnings increased by 16.7% and the interim dividend per share was up by 15.4%. There’s a scrip dividend alternative (shares instead of cash for the dividend), priced at a 3% discount to the volume-weighted average share price.


The shape of KAP’s income statement has changed (JSE: KAP)

The focus on margin is paying off – but there’s much work to be done

When KAP first gave an indication of its earnings for the six months to December 2025, I ran a poll at the time asking about your views on the company. Here are the results:

That’s a bullish view, with only 11% of people believing that something will go wrong from here. But to really get momentum in the share price, the company needs to get more people in the 44% fence-sitting category to get on the bid and become shareholders.

The decrease in revenue of 3% is unlikely to convince those investors, but perhaps the jump of 32% in HEPS will pique their interest. This was driven by a 10% increase in operating profit despite the revenue pressure. It’s also worth highlighting that cash generated from operations was up by 39%.

To be fair, the base period was severely impacted by the ramp-up costs at PG Bison’s new MDF facility, as well as a horrible situation for Feltex in the local vehicle manufacturing industry. Both of these issues have improved, hence the jump in profits for the group.

PG Bison’s operating margin is up 160 basis points to 15.2%, with a revenue increase of 18% in that segment doing great things for profitability. And at Feltex, operating profit increased dramatically from R42 million to R146 million thanks to a 23% increase in revenue.

As for the revenue pressure, Safripol is largely to blame here. The company suffered an 18% reduction in revenue and a 40% drop in operating profit. The operating margin is just 4%, so a drop in revenue in this low-margin segment can be mitigated by revenue in other, high-margin segments. This is why we’ve seen such a change to the group margin.

Unitrans also contributed to the change in group margin. Despite revenue decreasing by 8%, operating profit was up 3%. They are focusing on margin, not revenue for the sake of revenue.

Sleep Group grew revenue by 5% and operating profit by 4%, with the company even attributing the weak demand to online gambling. If retailers in South Africa are to be believed, people are practically sleeping on the floor in order to have money for gambling. I know it’s a problem out there, but I still think that it’s at least partially just a convenient scapegoat. In any event, 5% revenue growth isn’t a bad outcome!

But there is one bad outcome: Optix continues to disappoint. Revenue fell 11% and the operating loss widened from R18 million to R43 million. We keep hearing about how things are going to improve at this investment. It’s becoming a larger and larger pimple, right in the middle of KAP’s nose, and at a time when the market is actually starting to look more closely at KAP’s performance.

They expect the second half of the year to be softer compared to the first half. They will hopefully manage to keep margins at decent levels.

KAP is down 9.5% over 12 months, but up 25% year-to-date!


Much better numbers at Libstar (JSE: LBR)

They carried on where they left off in the first half

Libstar has released a trading statement for the year ended December 2025. They had a solid first half to the year, so the market was hoping that the momentum would continue. The good news is that it did!

With the fresh mushroom operations being sold, that part of the business has been recognised as a discontinued operation. Keep that in mind when thinking about the percentage ranges.

With areas of the business like Perishable Products and Wet Condiments doing well, total HEPS is expected to increase by between 19.6% and 24.6%. The performance was helped along by a reduction in finance costs, made possible by strong operational cash flows that took pressure off the balance sheet.

Normalised HEPS from continuing operations increased by between 20.7% and 23.7%. It’s good to see that the normalised number isn’t terribly different to the number without adjustments.

It’s not all good news – there was still a large impairment that left them in a loss-making position in terms of EPS. The Ambassador Foods snacks business looks like it suffered an impairment of over R200 million.

It’s still a much better set of numbers than we are used to seeing at Libstar. The company is still trading under cautionary based on negotiations with potential acquirers of the group. Whether or not a deal will materialise remains unclear.


There’s only slightly positive growth at Nedbank (JSE: NED)

But it’s better than the market expected

Nedbank’s share price closed 8% higher on Thursday. This is a great reminder that share price moves are a function of expectations vs. reality, not just the underlying reality.

The trigger for the move was a further trading statement, in which Nedbank confirmed that diluted HEPS would increase by between 0% and 4% for the year ended December 2025. Not exactly exciting, is it?

Return on equity (ROE) is expected to be between 15.3% and 15.5%, down from 15.8% in the prior year.

The other important metric is of course net asset value (NAV) per share, which increased by between 3% and 5%. The NAV per share is between R247.60 and R252.41, while the share price is currently at nearly R315.

These numbers reflect a bank that is struggling to grow, but they were still ahead of the market’s even more bearish expectations.

The reason for the share price trading at a premium to NAV is that the ROE is well above the return required by investors on Nedbank. This means they are willing to bid up the price until it reaches an effective return that they are happy with.

The mid-point of the NAV guidance is almost exactly R250, so the share price is trading at 1.26x NAV (or book value). Based on ROE of 15.4% at the mid-point of guidance, the effective ROE (calculated as 15.4/126) is 12.2%. In other words, investors are paying a premium to NAV that gives them an effective ROE of 12.2%, as they pay R126 for every R100 of NAV, and earn R15.4 on that amount.

It’s not a simple concept, but I felt it was worth giving it a go. This concept is a major driver of bank valuations.

And in case you’re wondering why Nedbank would release a trading statement for such a small move in HEPS, it’s because the really big move is actually in Earnings Per Share (EPS). Due to the accounting treatment of the disposal of the stake in Ecobank, EPS will decline by between 52% and 55%.


Earnings are up at OUTsurance, but their Australian business had a very tough period (JSE: OUT)

Storms and catastrophe events severely impacted Youi’s margins

One of the many standing jokes in South African investment circles relates to how Australia just continues to hurt the people who invest there. One of the (very few) exceptions has been OUTsurance, who built the Youi business from scratch in that market. Building instead of buying has been key to success.

But even Youi can have a rough year, especially as an insurance company that has to retain some of the risk on its balance sheet in order to earn an underwriting margin. Thanks to catastrophe events and storms in Australia (as though the spiders and snakes weren’t bad enough), Youi’s normalised earnings for the six months to December 2025 were down by between 40% and 46%.

When you consider that Youi contributed more than half of the group numbers in the comparable period, that’s a scary decrease.

Thankfully, OUTsurance SA came to the rescue, just like they do when the robots aren’t working in Joburg. Earnings growth of 66% to 72% in that business did a spectacular job of offsetting the Youi pressure. In fact, it was enough for the OHL Group to be up by between 10% and 15%!

Although there were high-quality sources of earnings growth in South Africa (like increases in gross written premium and a better claims experience), I must note that the South African results were helped along by a change to share-based payment structures. This is good for shareholders, but would presumably have the largest impact on the implementation of the new scheme (i.e. in this period) rather than on an ongoing basis. In other words, the incredible growth in South Africa probably isn’t an indication of realistic growth rates in years to come.

Looking at the two smaller parts of the business, OUTsurance Life was flat, with a performance of -2% to 4%. This was mainly because of the change in the South African yield curve, rather than a reflection of the underlying sales performance. OUTsurance Ireland is in the incubation phase, with losses worsening by between 18% and 24%. They expect the losses to moderate in the second half of the year.

As an additional complication, OUTsurance Group as the listed company only holds 92.8% of OHL, which is where the abovementioned operations sit. There are also other balance sheet items that sit at group level, so the results are impacted by the performance in OHL as well as any other movements that sit above OHL.

Normalised earnings per share for the group increased by between 4% and 10%, while HEPS was up by between 11% and 17%. OUTsurance believes that normalised earnings is where you should focus.

The share price is only up 3% over the past 12 months. OUTsurance is an excellent business, but it trades at a demanding valuation.


Tasty mid-teen growth at Spur (JSE: SUR)

This has been a fantastic growth story in recent years

I’m a dad, which means that Spur is a place where I find myself every few weeks or so. It’s just one of those things. Parenting is both rewarding and challenging, with Spur waffles helping to grease the wheels of procreation.

The company knows exactly what they are doing, with a focused strategy that can only leave Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) investors with a bad taste in their mouths. Just look at the outperformance over five years:

Spur’s triumphant share price chart looks set to continue its journey, as the latest results for the six months to December are strong. Revenue is up 8.5%, HEPS increased by 13.6% and the interim dividend was up 13.2%. Cash generated by operations increased by a delightful 21.1%.

Customer count is up for the period, with average spend per head growing above menu inflation. Like I said, it’s those damn waffles.

Jokes aside, it’s actually the pizza. Panarottis was the star of the show, with restaurant sales growth of 17.4% for the period. Spur was good for 7.2%, while RocoMamas increased 4.9%. I’m afraid that John Dory’s remains poor, with sales down 11.7%. The Speciality Brands segment, which includes Hussar Grill and Doppio Zero, grew 9.1%.

One of the uncertain items is the contractual dispute with GPS Food Group. Although arbitration proceedings have supported the merits of the claim, the quantum hasn’t yet been determined. With two separate claims of R167 million and R95.8 million, we aren’t talking small numbers here. As Spur is appealing the arbitration outcome, they haven’t raised a liability at this stage. Just keep this in mind as a potential negative “surprise” down the line.

I’m keen to get your views on Famous Brands vs. Spur:


Tiger Brands is focused on efficiencies (JSE: TBS)

A price-deflationary environment means that only the strong survive

Tiger Brands released a voluntary update for the four months to January 2026. In an environment of low inflation in core products like bread and cereals, it’s really difficult to achieve significant revenue growth.

Revenue from continuing operations increased by 1% year-on-year. Volumes were up 2% and price had a -1% impact – your eyes do not deceive you, that is price deflation! They’ve continued to clean up the product range, with volumes up 5% if you focus only on the SKUs they will have going forward.

Revenue growth was achieved in all business units except for Home and Personal Care, where competitive forces were severe. They expect that to get better in the second half of the year based on turnaround initiatives.

Despite the subdued revenue growth, gross margin was up. This drove growth in operating profit, with a double-digit operating margin. Benefits in areas like supply chain costs also contributed to the growth in margin.

The optimisation of the group remains the focus. This includes transactions like the disposal of the Cameroonian subsidiary, Chocolaterie Confiserie Camerounaise S.A. (Chococam). They are also deciding what to do with Beacon Chocolate and King Foods, which remain in continuing operations for now.

Although some of the share price pressure this year is because of the significant special dividend that was paid in January, there’s also evidence of profit-taking here. The share price closed 6% lower on Thursday in response to this update.


The anaemic results at Truworths continue (JSE: TRU)

They appear to be incapable of addressing the slide in Truworths Africa

Truworths trades on a Price/Earnings multiple below 8x. This isn’t because of market apathy, or because of unreasonable bearishness among investors. It’s because the only thing propping them up right now is the Office UK business – and the market knows exactly how vulnerable these offshore stories can be.

For the 26 weeks to 28 December 2025, Truworths Africa suffered a revenue decline of 3.6%. They are down in almost just about every category, making it clear that they have no idea how to stem the bleeding in the local business. Office UK grew sales by 7.1% for the period, which was just enough to perfectly offset the decline in Truworths Africa.

In terms of sales channels, online sales were up 23.3% in Truworths Africa and contributed 7.4% of sales. Office UK’s online sales were up 7.5% in local currency and contributed 45.7% of total sales (the UK online market is mature vs. South Africa).

The Office UK growth vs. Truworths Africa decline led to flat sales at group level, accompanied by a steady gross profit margin of 51.8%. At least this is an area where Truworths Africa showed some improvement, with gross margin up from 53.6% to 54.0%. Office UK’s gross margin dipped from 48.2% to 48.0%.

Group trading profit increased by 2.8%, with margin up from 16.8% to 17.2%. Cost control in Truworths Africa was probably the highlight of this result, with trading expenses down 2.6% excluding forex losses.

By the time you reach HEPS, you find an increase of 1.3%. The dividend was up by a similar percentage.

For the first seven weeks of the second half of the year, sales in Truworths Africa were up by 0.6%. Compared to the decline in the first half, this is cause for celebration. But here’s the problem: Office UK’s sales were down 1.7% in rand terms despite being up 3.4% in local currency. An investment thesis based on one offshore entity is extremely vulnerable to issues like forex movements.

The Truworths share price is down 24% over 12 months. They are up 6.7% year-to-date, with the share price trying (and failing) to break above R61.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A prescribed officer of Reunert (JSE: RLO) sold shares worth R1.6 million.
    • An associate of a director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth just under R1 million.
    • An associate of a director of Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) bought shares and CFDs worth R745k.
    • A director of Calgro M3 (JSE: CGR) has bought shares worth R175k.
  • Sygnia (JSE: SYG) has suffered yet another change in top management, with the company struggling to give investors much consistency beyond the almost-guaranteed presence of founder and CEO Magda Wierzycka. The latest is that Rashid Ismail has resigned as the financial director of the group. A replacement hasn’t been named as of yet.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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In March 2025, enX subsidiary enX Trading, entered into a subscriptions and options agreement with Trichem SA which saw the company acquire from enX a 25% stake in West African International (WAI). Trichem SA had the option to put the subscription shares to enX and to acquire the remaining 75% interest, which it has now done. Trichem paid R107,3 million for the initial stake and will pay not less than R286 million on aggregate for the full ownership of WAI, capped at an aggregate maximum consideration of R407 million – which will be paid in cash. The transaction is in line with enX’s strategy of increasing shareholder value by disposing of those businesses that unlock value when suitable opportunities arise.

Octodec Investments has announced the disposal of Killarney Mall to AJPG Property 1 for a consideration of R397,5 million. The property was strategically identified as an asset to recycle, with greater value to shareholders achieved in the unlocking by divesting and redirecting capital into other opportunities.

Altron Document Solutions, a subsidiary of Altron, will acquire a controlling equity stake in document solutions and technology services company Xtec KZN, in a move that will see it accelerate its regional growth and expand its services delivery capabilities across the South African market.

Mr Price has advised shareholders that all regulatory conditions in respect of the company’s acquisition of the retail business of NKD Group from Pegasus Group, have been received and the transaction has accordingly become unconditional.

Transpaco has been informed by the Competition Commission that the company’s R128 million acquisition of the Premier Plastics Group, announced in November 2025, has been prohibited. The company has advised it is working through the Commission’s response and will consider options available to it.

Lithium Africa, has announced its intention to acquire a 70% stake in Namli Exploration & Mining. Namli holds the prospecting right and a mining permit comprising the Springbok Project which is located in the Namaqualand region of the Northern Cape. The project includes a past-producing lithium pegmatite mine with an associated, historically produced stockpile. Lithium Africa is seeking a partner to monetise the stockpile and in-pit material. The company will pay US$1,35 million in cash for a 30% stake and $4 million in total in a staged transaction.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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AttBid, a vehicle representing Atterbury Property Fund (APF), and WeBuyCars founders Faan and Dirk van der Walt, which made an offer to RMH shareholders earlier this month, has acquired in on-market transactions a further 31,83 million RMH shares. Following the transactions, AttBid and APF hold an aggregate of c.35.11% of the RMH shares in issue.

Marshall Monteagle has issued 1,300,000 shares for cash, raising approximately US$2 million at a price of $1.54 per share. The additional shares represent 3.63% of the total issued share capital of the company.

The Board of Caxton and CTP Publishers and Printers has taken the decision to withdraw the declaration of a special dividend of 100c per ordinary share announced in January. This follows the delayed receipt of approval from the SARB. The company will now pay an interim dividend in the same amount.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$2 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 16 to 20 February 2026, the group repurchased 396,379 shares for €26,4 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. This week the company repurchased a further 308,209 shares at an average price of £45.28 per share for an aggregate £17,21 million.

During the period 16 to 20 February 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,058,244 Prosus shares for an aggregate €89,54 million and Naspers, a further 796,820 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R717,63 million.

One company issued a profit warning this week: RCL Foods.

Two companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Trustco and Labat Africa.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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In Mali, NDC Energie has acquired approximately 80 services stations across the country from Coly Energy Mali, a subsidiary of Benin Petro, for an undisclosed sum. Coly acquired the assets from TotalEnergies last year when the global firm exited its 25-year presence in the West African country. Its extensive assets accounted for an estimated 25% – 30% of the national fuel network.

Mineral exploration and development company, Kendrick Resources, has exercised its option to acquire a 70% stake in Namibia exploration licences EPL4458 and EPL 6691 from Bonya Exploration Pty Namibia. The consideration payable is US$300,000 in cash and the issue of 22 million ordinary shares in Kendrick. Further considerations of $500,000 and three million Consideration Shares will be payable once the extension of at least 18 months have been granted to the Licences.

Grene Capital Management Nigeria has completed of the management buyout of the firm from Actis. Grene Capital will now operate as an independent, Africa focused real asset fund manager, currently invested in two institutional-quality assets: Jabi Lake Mall in Abuja and Heritage Place office building in Ikoyi, Lagos.

WafR, a Morocco-based fintech, has closed a US$4 million oversubscribed seed round, co-led by LoftyInc Capital, Attijariwafa Ventures, and Almada Ventures, with participation from returning investors UM6P Ventures and First Circle Capital. WafR enables small merchants to optimise their revenues by becoming digital access points for payments, airtime top-up and other financial services. The funding will be used to, amongst other things, accelerate the expansion of its distribution network.

Spiro, an e-mobility company operating in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Benin and Togo – with pilots underway in Cameroon and Tanzania, has raised US$50 million in debt funding from Afreximbank and two new investors Nithio and Africa Go Green Fund managed by Cygnum Capital. The new capital will support the continued expansion of Spiro’s battery swapping network across existing and new markets, while further advancing the company’s proprietary technology platform, including automated battery swaps, fast charging, and renewable energy integration.

In November 2025, Ellah Lakes, an agricultural company listed on Nigeria’s NGX, announced a ₦235 billion Public Offer consisting of 18,8 billion shares at ₦12.5k each. The funds were earmarked for acquisitions and working capital. On 23 February 2026, the company announced that the level of subscription had not met the minimum threshold for allotment and therefore no shares would be allotted pursuant to the Offer. Subscription monies received would be refunded to applicants.

Abu Dhabi headquartered, Mubadala Energy, has acquired a 15% participating interest in the Nargis Offshore Area (‘Nargis’) concession, an offshore exploration block in Egypt, from Eni. Financial terms were not disclosed. The Nargis concession is located in the East Nile Delta Basin of the Mediterranean Sea, approximately 50km offshore. The concession includes the Nargis‑1 discovery made in early 2023. The Nargis concession is adjacent to the Eni-operated Nour concession, in which Mubadala Energy has a 20% stake.

The Mauritius Commercial Bank (MCB) has successfully closed its inaugural GCC and India focused Syndicated Term Loan of US$450 million. Initially launched at $300 million, the facility was oversubscribed by approximately 2.1x, enabling MCB to upsize the loan to $450 million. The facility is structured as a two-year term loan with a one-year extension option at the borrower’s discretion (2+1) and will be used for general corporate purposes.

Rising M&A activity signals growing investor confidence

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The uptick in local and foreign mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in South Africa, as well as the successful hosting of the G20 Summit, bode well for the country’s investment landscape.

A recent deal of note is Metrofile, currently being acquired by US-based investor group, Mango Holding Corp. The acquisition represents a strategic opportunity for the group to establish a regionally diversified platform in the information management and digital services sector across Africa and the Middle East.

Not only will the deal give the investors immediate presence in South Africa, Kenya, Botswana, Mozambique and the Middle East through Metrofile’s operational footprint, it will give them access to a proven platform with a trusted brand, making it a strong foundation for digital expansion and business process automation services aligned with global customer demand trends.

For Metrofile, the offer represents a unique opportunity for its shareholders to realise significant value with a premium exit, and for its employees, customers and suppliers to participate in Metrofile’s digital expansion potential.

Tamela acted as an independent expert for Metrofile, mandated to ensure shareholder protection, fair valuation, and transparent decision-making. This involved reviewing historical financial information, analysing management forecasts and budgets, performing various valuations, and considering the prevailing economic and market conditions.

What made the transaction significant was the premium payable – roughly a 95% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) prior to the first cautionary announcement, providing shareholders with meaningful value uplift. More broadly, the transaction demonstrates that South African companies continue to offer attractive value to foreign buyers, partly due to the strategic market access they provide.

The Metrofile acquisition is just one example of a more resilient M&A market. Several other deals, such as Old Mutual’s acquisition of 10X Investments; FirstRand’s acquisition of a 20.1% stake in Optasia; Premier Group’s acquisition of RFG Holdings; Nedbank’s acquisition of fintech company, iKhokha; and Exxaro’s acquisition of a portfolio of manganese assets, also underline this upswing.

It is encouraging that these companies have the confidence to consider how they should be allocating capital and what strategic bolt-on acquisitions could help strengthen their portfolios, despite various geopolitical uncertainties, such as US-SA tension.

M&A activity is a critical catalyst for moving companies forward, whether they are bulking up or gaining access to new technology. It is also an effective way for large companies to consolidate their operations and divest non-core assets – a continuous process of analysing their portfolios and identifying opportunities for optimisation, always with the overarching goal of enhancing stakeholder value for all participants.

Looking at recent transactions, the Premier Group–RFG Holdings merger is one such example. In this instance, both companies operate in the consumer goods sector and looked to create a more compelling, robust and sustainable business.

In the Fintech space, Old Mutual’s acquisition of 10X Investments will allow Old Mutual to go to market with a modern, low-cost, tech-driven platform aimed at attracting younger, digital-savvy investors, and 10X Investments will gain capital for growth and tech investment, while maintaining its brand and operational independence.

While the boost in M&A activity, especially investment by local players, means the market benefits from improved investor confidence, attractive valuations and evolving regulatory frameworks, this necessitates careful navigation by experienced local partners, especially for foreign investors.

Kgolo Qwelane is a Corporate Finance Executive | Tamela

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

Private equity set to steer economic growth for Africa in 2026

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Private equity (PE) appears to continue to be a vital engine for economic growth in Africa, catalysing investment across sectors and attracting domestic and foreign capital.

However, as the industry matures, it faces increasing complexity, driven by regulatory reform, evolving fund structures, and heigh-tened scrutiny from competition authorities and institutional investors.

Competition law reform
Last year, two new African competition authorities became operational – Uganda’s new competition authority, and the East African Competition Commission. Both are expected to impact the time and the cost of transactions in the region.

In addition, in December 2025, the Common Market of Southern and Eastern Africa (COMESA) Competition and Consumer Commission announced the implementation of the COMESA Competition and Consumer Protection Regulations, 2025 (Regulations) and the COMESA Competition and Consumer Protection Rules, 2025 (Rules).

The Regulations and Rules repeal and replace the 2004 legislative framework, introducing a fundamentally reshaped enforcement landscape for competition and consumer protection in the COMESA region.

Key highlights for investors include that the Regulations explicitly establish a ‘one stop shop’ for conduct with a regional dimension, including an exclusivity rule preventing parallel national notifications for mergers that meet COMESA thresholds. They also include a stronger conflicts rule with respect to matters with a regional dimension (i.e. COMESA law prevails, rather than national competition or consumer protection laws) and delineate when Member States may act, including structured referrals.

Several important changes were made to the merger control regime, including a clearer definition of a ‘merger’, clarity on the scope of notifiability of joint venture transactions, and specific thresholds for mergers within digital markets (including platforms).

New merger notification thresholds were also introduced for transactions more generally, and the filing fee is now capped at US$300,000 (up from $200,000). One of the most consequential reforms under the Regulations is the transition from a non-suspensory to suspensory merger control regime, with financial penalties applicable for implementation of mergers without prior approval.

Taken together, these reforms mark one of the most far-reaching shifts in regional competition policy on the African continent and should be on the radar of every investor.

Risk a key consideration in exits
In another development, we have seen that PE fund managers and investment committees have started building exit strategies into their models from the outset.

Risk mitigation systems, particularly insurance, play a critical role in successful exits in Africa. Strategic acquirers are building models using their knowledge of assets, systems and experience in the region to deal with any known risk and uncertainty from early on.

There is also a growing appetite from insurers to underwrite risks via warranty and indemnity (W&I) insurance. While W&I insurance has traditionally been a buy-side policy, increasingly, sellers are adopting W&I insurance to ensure comprehensive coverage and clean exits by reducing the chance of any post-transaction liability and disputes.

Rigorous valuation and due diligence
Post-COVID, PE valuations have become more rigorous, with a move away from assessing value via benchmarks like headline multiples to a more detailed cash flow-based analysis.

There is an increased need by parties to include cyber aspects in their due diligence investigations. Conducting an ESG-related due diligence has also become more prevalent. In addition, there is increasing focus on conducting anti-bribery and corruption due diligence, as well as commercial due diligence, especially linked to cash flows, while IT due diligences have been significantly extended to include applications, governance and infrastructure systems.

Fund structuring becoming more commonplace
In recent years, Africa has seen an increased interest in fund establishment, particularly private credit funds aimed at mobilising institutional capital from pension schemes.

Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) also offer a pathway for engaging institutional investors like pension schemes, insurers and family offices. With no restrictions on asset types or distributions, AIFs are able to invest in listed, unlisted and offshore assets and enable local currency fundraising, which alleviates foreign exchange risk.

Final note
Heading full swing into 2026, PE investors are expected to anticipate regulatory shifts, navigate increasingly sophisticated deal structures, and focus on long term value creation. It seems that those that do will play a defining role in the continent’s economic growth.

Naqeeba Hassan is a Partner | Bowmans.

This article first appeared in Catalyst, DealMakers’ quarterly private equity publication.

Ghost Bites (AECI | Bidcorp | Blu Label | Fortress Real Estate | Hammerson | Motus | Mustek | Shaftesbury | Valterra Platinum)

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Things are looking much better at AECI (JSE: AFE)

AECI Mining has achieved a significant margin uplift

With the share price up by roughly 16% year-to-date (and we are only in February), AECI is clearly doing something right. The group turnaround is showing decent momentum, with the release of results for the year to December 2025 confirming that HEPS is moving firmly in the right direction.

Revenue from continuing operations may have dipped by 4%, but EBITDA from those operations was up 12% as margins improved.

You pay dividends (and reduce debt) with profits, not revenue!

Earnings per share from continuing operations improved by 36%, while HEPS was up by an excellent 53%. Before you get too excited, the dividend was only 4% higher, so this HEPS move hasn’t been backed up by an exciting dividend move.

But here’s why: net debt has plummeted from R3.7 billion to R465 million. It doesn’t help to ramp up the dividends to shareholders while you owe the bank. AECI has quite rightly taken the improved earnings and used them to stabilise the balance sheet. They also realised R2.2 billion in asset disposals, so that did wonders for debt reduction.

AECI Mining did the heavy lifting in terms of EBITDA margin, achieving its highest ever EBITDA despite a drop in revenue. They’ve focused on margins and pricing in the business, with the results clear to see. EBITDA margin improved from 12% to 15%.

AECI Chemicals remains a problem though. Margins went the other way, as a 4.5% revenue increase was accompanied by a 5% decline in EBITDA. Pricing pressure was one factor, with expected credit losses being another. On the plus side, segmental free cash flow improved by 34%.

Overall, they are making significant progress.


Solid numbers at Bidcorp (JSE: BID)

The company has spent years growing into its valuation

Bidcorp is easily one of the best examples of a company that has roots in South Africa and beautiful blooms all over the place in offshore markets. Through bolt-on acquisitions and a consistent strategy, they’ve built what can genuinely be referred to as a food service empire.

The valuation was always helped along by the “rand hedge” era, in which companies were desperate to have exposure elsewhere. South Africa is on a much firmer footing now, so investors are less inclined to chase offshore opportunites. Combined with a demanding valuation, this is why the total return in this stock over three years is only 18%. That’s in the green, but not exciting.

But at some point, the company will have grown into its valuation. The share price is down 7.5% in the past year, yet the freshly-released results for the six months to December 2025 reflect growth in HEPS of 8.5% (or 6.9% in constant currency). The Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple is now in the mid-teens. For such a great company, that’s starting to become interesting.

For all the rand strength that we keep talking about, it’s worth remembering that this is mainly against the US dollar – a market that Bidcorp doesn’t operate in. This is why revenue for the period was up 7.1% as reported, or 5.9% in constant currency. There’s still a rand hedge element to this story, as the rand tends to weaken against the markets where Bidcorp operates.

Trading profit increased 8.1% as reported (6.9% in constant currency), so margins improved in this period. But nothing improved quite as much as the cash margins, with cash generated by operations (net of working capital) up by a juicy 27.2%. Working capital can skew this from period to period, but that’s still good to see.

The interim dividend increased by 9.8% – a solid outcome.

A scan of the segmental numbers does reveal one ugly duckling. And of course, it would be Australasia, the ultimate widowmaker for South African businesses. Revenue fell 0.3% and trading profit was down 4.6%. They note cost inflation, a tight labour market and ongoing wage inflation.

Believe me, if Bidcorp is struggling in that market, then the clothing retailers must still be getting hammered.


Dividends are back at Blu Label Unlimited (JSE: BLU)

But the numbers are still impacted by accounting complexities related to Cell C

Blu Label has had quite a year. They successfully executed the separate listing of Cell C (JSE: CCD), setting that business free to go off and execute a strategy built around the MVNO offering as a key growth engine. Blu Label has retained a stake of 49.47% in Cell C. This is below the threshold for control, so the stake will be equity accounted going forwards.

This will do wonders for the simplification of Blu Label’s financial reporting, but we aren’t quite at that point yet. They’ve had to recognise significant accounting losses related to the restructuring.

To mitigate that pain and to show the market that there’s a business underneath all this, Blu Label has resumed interim distributions by declaring an interim dividend of 43.56 cents. At least this gives the market a base to work with.

On the subject of bases, revenue was a neat R5.0 billion and gross income was R1.35 billion. EBITDA came in at R535 million, so the EBITDA margin is north of 10%. Headline earnings came in at R398 million, or a margin of around 8%.

In terms of group prospects, one of the major growth initiatives is BluEnergy, which has secured a multi-year energy trading licence from NERSA. They are looking to play in the renewable energy space, so that’s going to be one to watch.

The share price closed 12% higher on the day, perhaps because the market can finally understand more of the numbers?

I’m keen to get your views on this one. Please participate in the poll below:


A short and sweet trading update at Fortress Real Estate (JSE: FFB)

Mid-teens growth is the order of the day

Fortress Real Estate has given the market a brief update on the expected earnings for the six months to December 2025. The announcement may be devoid of additional commentary or management narrative, but at least they give a precise number.

Shareholders can expect a dividend per share of 87.89 cents, representing an increase of 15.4% year-on-year. The share price is up 36% in the past 12 months.


Hammerson has grown its earnings in the UK market (JSE: HMN)

6% dividend growth in pound sterling isn’t a bad outcome at all

UK property fund Hammerson has released results for the year ended December 2025. Like-for-like net rental income growth of 3% got things off to a good start on the income statement, with EPRA earnings growth of 5% by the time you work through the expenses. As for the cherry on top, dividend growth was 6%.

That might not sound exciting, but you need to remember that this is a hard currency return. And although there are a lot of valid concerns about the UK economy at the moment, the pound has proven to be a lot more resilient than the US dollar.

The portfolio value increased by 33% through a combination of acquisitions, growth in rentals and compression in valuation yields. They had record leasing activity and strong positive reversions in leases. Occupancies sit at 96%, so the Hammerson portfolio is doing well overall.

The flagship portfolio increased footfall by 2%, with the fund highlighting a “best and the rest” trend that is making it increasingly important for investors to look for quality retail properties. I agree with this sentiment, particularly in this omnichannel retail world.

The loan-to-value (LTV) of 39% is on the high side by South African standards, but the UK benefits from a lower cost of borrowing than we have here. This encourages funds to run at higher debt levels.

It looks like a solid set of numbers overall, with Hammerson up 23% in the past year.


Well, the market didn’t like something about the Motus update (JSE: MTH)

But I thought it looked pretty good overall

Motus has a diversified business in the automotive space. It’s worth giving you that context before we dive into the numbers.

In Import and Distribution, they have approximately 15.5% passenger vehicle market share in South Africa, powered by exclusive import rights for big brands like Hyundai, Kia and Renault (amongst others). This generates 17% of group operating profit.

In Retail and Rental, they then expand the offering to represent 29 OEMs and 38 brands across a footprint of 337 dealerships in South Africa. This takes their market share in new passenger vehicles to 18.4%. This is also where you’ll find their UK and Australian businesses. This is the biggest segment, contributing 40% of group operating profit.

Mobility Solutions is the value-added and financial products piece of the business. Despite generating just 2% of group revenue, this segment is responsible for 22% of group operating profit.

And finally, the Aftermarket Parts business gives them ongoing economic participation long after the customer has driven out in a new car. This segment has operations in South Africa, the UK, Asia and Europe, contributing 21% of group operating profit.

Does this give them enough flexibility and resilience to defend against the incursion of Chinese and Indian vehicles? With the share price up 11.6% in the past year and a juicy dividend yield as well, it seems that way. But despite releasing what I thought were solid interim results for the six months to December 2025, the share price closed 4.4% lower.

Revenue for the period increased 3% and operating profit was up 8%. With net finance costs coming down by a significant 23%, they managed to achieve a lovely jump in HEPS of 19%. The dividend was even better, up 25% year-on-year.

The real joke is cash flow from operating activities, which was up more than 10x from R186 million to over R1.9 billion.

Net debt to EBITDA improved from 2.1x to 1.5x, so that’s another highlight in the numbers.

Motus is certainly enjoying the improved new car sales in South Africa, with operating profit up 15% in the home market despite so much activity in the so-called emerging brands. The UK market also achieved some growth in vehicle sales. Although Australia’s economic growth has been revised downwards, that market achieved a new all-time high in vehicle sales.

I can’t see an obvious reason why the market didn’t like these numbers, so it could just be profit-taking by investors and punters. With the most diversified model of the automotive-focused players on our market, Motus should weather the storm of disruption in this sector.


Mustek’s profits have jumped off a low base (JSE: MST)

Revenue fell by 2.4%, yet HEPS is up 256%!

Just like people, income statements come in all shapes and sizes. Mustek’s results for the six months to December 2025 are a great example, with revenue dipping by 2.4% and profits up sharply.

The profit boost didn’t come from the gross profit margin, as that contracted from 13.9% to 12.6%. EBITDA was down by 1.6%. Nothing about this sounds like it should be boosting HEPS!

When you reach the net finance cost, you find the reason for the HEPS move. Net finance costs fell from R83 million to R48 million. Compared to EBITDA of R128 million, that’s a big difference. This is why net profit increased from R13 million to R45 million.

This boosted HEPS from 23.47 cents to 83.54 cents. The huge percentage move has been driven by a reduction in finance costs, along with the low base for earnings in the comparable period.


Shaftesbury continues to celebrate London’s West-End (JSE: SHC)

Dividend growth looks exceptional

Shaftesbury released results for the year ended December 2025. They are excellent to say the least, with the fund’s West End-focused strategy in London working beautifully.

Much as your social media feed may try to convince you that London is now a hellhole, the reality is that it remains a beautiful and incredibly important city that attracts people from all over the world. The West End is one of the best areas in the city, so that’s a good place to own property.

The portfolio valuation increased by 6.2% on a like-for-like basis, reflecting the underlying appeal of the area. Another indication of success is the leasing activity, with rentals coming in 13.9% ahead of previous passing rents (this is how UK funds talk about reversions).

With underlying earnings per share up by 12%, this is an impressive double-digit growth performance in hard currency. Oddly enough though, under the HEPS rules, earnings actually dipped from 3.4 pence to 3.3 pence per share.

The dividend is what investors will focus on though, up by an excellent 14% year-on-year. Shaftesbury shareholders just might treat themselves to a West End shopping spree!


Earnings almost doubled at Valterra Platinum (JSE: VAL)

The same certainly can’t be said for the dividend

Valterra Platinum released results for the year ended December 2025. Revenue increased by 7%, which sounds like a modest improvement. It was enough for adjusted EBITDA to jump by 68%, and for HEPS to increase by a casual 98%.

Yes, they nearly doubled earnings off revenue growth of just 7%!

And to add to the weird shape of the numbers, the dividend per share is down 37% year-on-year. Hmmm.

If you’re wondering why revenue growth wasn’t higher, you aren’t alone. After all, the PGM basket price did amazing things in 2025 – Valterra’s average realised basket price for PGMs increased 26% in rand. The flooding in Amandelbult took the shine off things unfortunately, driving a 10% decrease in PGM production. Refined PGM production fell 13% and sales volumes were down 15%. This is why revenue wasn’t nearly as high as you might expect.

They delivered cost savings of R5 billion though, so that helped create a decent outcome for earnings. It’s also worth noting that they received R2.3 billion in flooding-related net insurance proceeds, reducing the impact of that irritation and boosting earnings without a related increase in revenue.

With a net cash position of R11.5 billion, they’ve really turned things around from the net debt position at 30 June 2025. This does raise further questions about the move in the dividend, though. I know that the company’s demerger from Anglo American (JSE: AGL) would’ve affected comparability, but still.

Guidance for 2026 remains unchanged, with refined production guidance of 3.0 – 3.4 million PGM ounces. They achieved 3.4 million ounces in 2025, so the midpoint of guidance is actually a decrease from current levels.

At least capex guidance has been moderated by a couple of billion, coming in at R17 billion – R18 billion. This should help free cash flow.

The business is in much better shape than in early 2025, as evidenced by the share price doubling over the past six months. It’s just a pity that the dividend hasn’t kept pace with the earnings growth, with the company taking a more measured approach to lock in the balance sheet strength.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Here’s something you won’t see every day: the CEO of PPC (JSE: PPC) funded R5.6 million worth of tax liability (related to share-based payments) using a one-year term loan. He’s pledged shares worth R15.6 million against this debt. If that isn’t a show of faith in a company, I don’t know what is.
    • An associate of a director of Goldrush Holdings (JSE: GRSP) bought shares in the company (and entered into CFDs) worth nearly R158k.
    • An associate of a director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R38.6k.
  • Here’s something interesting: iOCO (JSE: IOC) announced that Dennis Venter has resigned as the co-CEO of the group. This leaves Rhys Summerton as the sole CEO. I’m never a fan of co-CEO structures, so I don’t see this as a bad thing.
  • Back in December, Mahube Infrastructure (JSE: MHB) released a firm intention announcement regarding an offer by Sustent Holdings. The circular is expected to be released in early March. But here’s an interesting development: the company has announced that an entity named Bunter Capital (and related parties) has built up an interest of just over 10%. One has to wonder about the chess moves in the background.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding negotiations with an AI and technology company operating in the SADC region. The parties are still finalising the terms of whatever this deal might be. As always, there’s every chance that the talks just fizzle out, hence the need for shareholders to be cautious.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) announced encouraging results from recent samples at the Kabwe Zinc Mine. This is surface testing that sounds like it used rather rudimentary methods to conduct, but it gets the job done – the company feels good about the significant material available at the surface. Testing at the surface is surely cheaper than testing the metallurgical characteristics of the ore body much further down.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) announced that Buyisiwe Makunga has resigned as a director and Chair of the Group Audit and Risk Committee. The company stresses that this isn’t because of governance concerns, but rather a conflict of interest in a business opportunity. I’m sure that’s true, but the timing is still unfortunate based on the precipitous drop in the bitcoin price and the rebrand of the group.

Ghost Bites (African Rainbow Minerals | Altron | NEPI Rockcastle | Octodec | RCL Foods | Redefine Properties | Super Group)

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African Rainbow Minerals probably achieved double-digit interim HEPS growth (JSE: ARI)

The PGM segment is probably the highlight here

African Rainbow Minerals released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. This was triggered by the move in earnings per share, which jumped by between 65% and 75% thanks to the profit on disposal of Sakura and a gain on remeasurement of the 50% in Nkomati Mine.

But what the market really cares about is HEPS, which increased by between 5% and 15% (not enough to trigger a trading statement). That suggests 10% at the mid-point, or just enough to be considered double-digit growth.

African Rainbow Minerals has various underlying interests, with PGMs as the highlight in this period. Investors will have to wait for 6th March to see how underlying operations performed.


Altron gives more details on a strong performance (JSE: AEL)

They are focusing on annuity opportunities that have higher margins

Altron believes that the year ending February 2026 marks the end of its “Accelerated Growth” strategy. They are now in “Transformative Growth” mode. These concepts always smell strongly of Eau de Management Consultant, but they are important for getting internal alignment in organisations that are going through change. Managing large groups of people who have different incentives isn’t easy.

Altron’s efforts are paying off though. Earlier this month, they released a trading statement that flagged growth in HEPS from continuing operations of more than 30%. In a voluntary operational update, they’ve given more details on how they got there.

It’s worth noting that HEPS from continuing operations for the first half of the year was up 22%, so they came into the second half with great momentum.

It’s also good to note that the discontinued operation is Altron Nexus, which was sold on 1 August 2025.

Double-digit EBITDA growth certainly helps, as does the low-to-mid-teens growth rate in operating profit (if you exclude the change in Netstar’s depreciation policy that distorts comparability).

The Platforms segment is doing the heavy lifting, with 45% of group revenue and around 90% of EBITDA and operating profit. This is clearly where you’ll find the best margins and a number of annuitised revenue streams.

Within Platforms, Netstar’s growth (mid-to-high teens EBITDA, and high-teens operating profit excluding the depreciation change) has been driven mainly by the South African business, as Australia’s recovery has been slower than anticipated. Altron FinTech is also in Platforms, achieving improving margins and high-twenties operating profit growth. Altron HealthTech, the third pillar in Platforms, achieved high-teens operating profit growth.

In IT Services, they struggled with a drop in revenue. The segment also clearly runs at a much lower margin. Altron Digital seems to be the biggest headache, but at least it was profitable in December 2025 and January 2026 after cost-cutting measures. Altron Security achieved double-digit revenue growth and operating profit growth in line with the interim performance. Altron Document Solutions achieved more than 30% growth in operating profit for the year, so that’s an example of where turnaround strategies can work.

Overall, annuity-based income is up to 65% of total revenue (both segments have this type of income). This gives great visibility on cash flow and helps with the valuation as well.


Double-digit growth in net operating income at NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP)

They’ve hit the top end of revised guidance

NEPI Rockcastle released results for the year ended December 2025. Distributable earnings increased 6.7% and net operating income was up 11.2%. Tenant turnover across the Central and Eastern European portfolio increased by 3.6% on a like-for-like basis, while retail occupancies were up at 98.8%.

As you can see, there’s a good story to tell here – at least if you own dominant shopping centres in the region.

On a per-share basis, the growth isn’t quite as exciting. Distributable earnings per share increased by 3.1% for the year. When you keep issuing new shares, this is what happens.

Another important metric is like-for-like net operating income growth, which excludes acquisitions completed in 2024. Growth of 4.4% on this basis gives you a good idea of why distributable earnings per share growth was in the low single digits.

The fund welcomes Marek Noetzel as the new CEO on 1 April 2026. He takes the reins of an iconic property fund with a loan-to-value ratio of just 32.8%, below the 35% strategic threshold. That sounds to me like a good opportunity to hit the ground running.


Octodec will offload Killarney Mall for almost R400 million (JSE: OCT)

This is only slightly below the book value

Hot on the heels of a general operating update that dealt with Octodec’s portfolio and many of the unique challenges that they need to manage on a daily basis, the company has now announced that they have a buyer for Killarney Mall. With a relatively high vacancy rate, the new owner (AJPH Property) will have some work to do.

For Octodec shareholders, this means an exit from this asset at a price of R397.5 million. It remains subject to adjustments for working capital. This price is only slightly below the valuation of R407.6 million that was performed with an effective date of 31 August 2025.

Selling at a premium to book is obviously preferred, but companies need to sometimes get out and move on to new assets. It looks like Octodec is making a sensible decision here, with the proceeds being used to reduce debt and deploy into future projects.


RCL has given tighter guidance for a tough year (JSE: RCL)

As previously noted by the company, the pressure is in sugar

At the start of this month, RCL released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. It noted an unpleasant drop in HEPS from total operations of at least 25% (or a decrease of at least 27.4 cents).

Most of this move (at least 21.8 cents) was thanks to the troubles in the sugar industry, with the stronger rand and ineffective sugar tariffs placing the local industry under even more strain. An additional issue for the year-on-year HEPS comparability is that there was a partial recovery of the sugar levy in the prior period. In more positive news, the initial trading statement noted that Groceries and Baking were expected to report improved underlying profitability.

We now have a further trading statement that gives a tighter range. HEPS from total operations is now expected to drop by between 29.2% and 32.1%.

Kudos to the company for keeping investors informed – an initial trading statement and subsequent further trading statement shows commitment to the market. It’s just a pity that the numbers have gone the wrong way.


Redefine’s pre-close update is full of nuggets (JSE: RDF)

Perhaps the most interesting is that large retail centres are doing well

Redefine Properties released a pre-close update dealing with the six months to February 2026. There’s a bullish narrative overall, with the company believing that they are in the strongest position they’ve been in during the post-pandemic period. Property fundamentals are showing positive signs and the balance sheet is in good shape, so they can take advantage of the opportunities out there.

But what do the numbers say? Well, in South Africa, negative rental reversions of -6.3% are worse than -5.2% in FY25. Renewal success rates are up though, so perhaps they are being slightly less strict on price in order to get the leases across the line.

The weighted average lease escalation of 6.4% is well above inflation in South Africa, although one must remember that property funds don’t deal with the CPI basket. They face municipal charges, as well as security, energy and other costs that tend to run above CPI.

Speaking of energy, Redefine’s solar projects generated 13.1% of the total energy demand in this period. They’ve invested heavily across the retail, office and industrial portfolios.

In the retail portfolio, Redefine notes that large-format centres have recovered. Turnover growth is now in line with convenience centres. Positive reversions in the retail portfolio of 2.4% were ahead of 1.0% in FY25. This is probably the bright spot in the update.

The office portfolio is where things got nasty. Reversions were -16.8%, even worse than -12.9% in FY25. This can be very lumpy though, with Redefine expecting it to moderate to -11% by the end of the year. Interestingly, of the 95 renewals in the period, 28 had negative reversions and 53 had positive reversions. The large tenants have the best bargaining power, as you might expect.

The industrial portfolio achieved positive renewals of 3.7%, up from 0.8% in FY25. This has been a solidly performing property asset class in South Africa.

In Poland (the EPP portfolio), like-for-like footfall increased by 0.8% and like-for-like turnover was up just 0.5%. Retail occupancies were steady at 98.2%, while office fell from 84.2% to 82.9%. At least rental reversions were up to 1.9% vs. 0.4% in FY25. In the ELI portfolio in Poland, which has the logistics assets, rental reversions were 1.8% – significantly lower than 6.9% in FY25.

They are looking to dispose of a number of assets in Poland as part of a broader plan to simplify the joint ventures in that country. They are also looking to build a strong self-storage platform in the country, taking advantage of trends like urbanisation and eCommerce.

Looking at the balance sheet, the group weighted average cost of debt has been maintained at 7.0%. There are various refinancing negotiations underway, with one of the primary goals being to address the maturity concentration risk in FY28. The loan-to-value (LTV) of 41.4% (calculated in line with the covenant of 50%) is in a healthy space. The see-through LTV of 47.2% is in line with what we’ve seen in recent years.

Overall, for FY26, they think that the upper end of the 4% – 6% guidance for growth in distributable income per share is in play.


Super Group pulled off an exceptional interim period (JSE: SPG)

Leaning into Chinese and Indian cars has worked

If you’re going to panic, panic quickly. This is some of the best advice you can ever be given. Instead of clinging to a sinking ship, get yourself onto something else as quickly as possible.

Super Group is proof of this, with the share price closing 5.4% higher thanks to the group achieving great interim numbers. Revenue was up 7% and operating profit increased by 8.7% as margins improved. By the time you reach HEPS from continuing operations, you find a fantastic outcome of 28% growth.

Cash generated from operations increased by 39.4%, so these results aren’t just pretty on paper. They are pretty in the bank account as well.

To understand the numbers, we need to dig into the segments.

The Supply Chain segment grew revenue by 6.3% and operating profit by 14.9%. This is the largest segment in the group, with operating profit of R695 million. The highlight within the segment was surely Ader in Spain, with revenue growth of 17.2% and EBITDA up by a rather ridiculous 225.6%. This is what can happen in low margin businesses when revenue heads in the right direction. Another useful outcome in this segment is that the cross-border transport business achievied a 90% reduction in trading losses.

Fleet Africa grew revenue by 15.3%, but operating profit could only manage a 4.2% increase due to pressure on margins from lower rental volumes. Operating profit was R156 million in this period.

Dealerships SA certainly deserves a mention, with the company leaning into Chinese and Indian brands for growth. 29.7% of new vehicle sales volumes are attributable to these brands, as Super Group’s volumes in this space more than doubled year-on-year. The profile of cars on our roads is changing dramatically. Operating profit improved from R193 million to R209 million, an excellent change in trajectory.

Dealerships UK managed to achieve a decent performance in Ford, while also taking advantage of the new Chinese brands. Operating profit growth jumped by 50.4% to R62 million thanks to the initiatives in this space. But I must point out that operating profit is at roughly half the levels we saw in interim 2024.

The discontinued operations still have some tough areas, like UK automotive logistics that is exposed to the broader automotive manufacturing environment in the UK and Europe (which is in enormous trouble). They are also looking to sell the UK KIA dealerships, having shut Hyundai and Suzuki. I’m old enough to remember when the new South Korean brands (KIA and Hyundai) were the disruptors rather than the disruptees.

Kudos to the group – they changed what needed to be changed. There’s a lesson in here for all of us about the importance of not ignoring disruption.

Give me your views on where the automotive sector is headed:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of Dis-Chem (JSE:DCP) bought shares worth R1.45 million.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSU) bought shares worth nearly R45k.
    • Incoming CEO Magen Naidoo has bought another R9.6k worth of shares in Mantengu (JSE: MTU).
  • The Competition Commission has given Transpaco (JSE: TPC) a bloody nose. The regulator has prohibited the acquisition of Premier Plastics, a deal that was announced on 6 November 2025. Premier produces retail plastic carrier bags, so there’s immense overlap with Transpaco’s existing business. This is why the regulator wasn’t so keen on this R128 million transaction. Transpaco is considering its options based on the commission’s decision.
  • Reunert (JSE: RLO) announced that incoming CEO Anthonie de Beer will be appointed as an executive director from 1 March 2026.
  • Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) concluded a rights offer back in November 2025 for $10.7 million. The raise was significantly oversubscribed, leaving many unfufilled excess applications. The company then used its general authority to issue shares, in order to give those applicants the opportunity to apply for new shares. This has led to an additional issue of shares worth $2 million.
  • Numeral (JSE: XII) is trying to raise R100 million (a large number). With only a partial underwrite of roughly R32 million, they are looking to close a huge gap. I’m not surprised to see that the closing date for this offer has been extended all the way out to 31 August 2026. This isn’t the kind of thing you see when people are queueing up to invest.
  • Blu Label (JSE: BLU) announced that Lindsay Ralphs, who previously served as the CEO of Bidvest (JSE: BVT), will be appointed as independent director and chairman designate with effect from 24 February 2026.
  • In case you were holding your breath, which I’m sure you weren’t, Trustco (JSE: TTO) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding the potential delisting from the JSE. This is based on their ongoing assessment of the Simplified Listings Requirements.
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