Rwanda and Kenya-based EV energy tech company, Ampersand, has announced the successful close of a funding round to scale up its operations across East Africa. The round included new working capital investment from British International Investment, new equity investments from Seedstars Africa Ventures, Gaia Impact, the Rwanda Green Fund and Raspberry Syndicate, as well as increased investments from existing partners including Ecosystem Integrity Fund, AHL Ventures, Acumen, HEHF, and TotalEnergies.
HoneyCoin, a Kenyan fintech startup, has raised US$4,9 million in seed equity funding from Flourish Ventures, TLcom Capital, Stellar Development Foundation, Lava, Musha Ventures, 4DX Ventures, Antler, and Visa Ventures. HoneyCoin has built a complete solution that operates as a multi-product one-stop-shop infrastructure platform offering services that span local payouts and collections, cross-border FX settlement, and treasury management.
Nulla Group, a Cameroon-based maize aggregator and processor has received a US$1,5 million working capital loan from Sahel Capital through its Social Enterprise Fund for Agriculture in Africa (SEFAA). Nulla Group, a women-led enterprise that is building resilient supply chains and transforming the maize value chain in Cameroon will utilise the funding to scale operations and improve service delivery to farmers and clients.
Lagos-based food delivery startup, Chowdeck, has raised US$9 million in Series A funding to launch a quick commerce strategy and expand into more cities in Nigeria and Ghana. The equity round was led by Novastar Ventures, with participation from Y Combinator, AAIC Investment, Rebel Fund, GFR Fund, Kaleo, HoaQ, and others. Founded in October 2021 by Aluko, Olumide Ojo, and Lanre Yusuf, Chowdeck now operates in 11 cities across Nigeria and Ghana, serving 1,5 million customers with a network of more than 20,000 riders.
Ethiopian Investment Holdings, the nation’s sovereign fund has acquired a 7.4% stake in Scandinavian-based gold producer Akobo Minerals AB through the subscription of 15,000,000 new shares in a private placement, at a subscription price of US$0.20 per share, raising total gross proceeds of US$3 million. The funds will be used to enable the construction of a new vertical shaft that is expected to significantly increase monthly production from 5–10 kilograms to 50–80 kg.
Subject to board approval, the African Development Bank will provide US$500 million in financing to build a new international airport in Ethiopia. The bank has also been appointed as the initial mandated lead arranger, global coordinator and book runner to mobilise nearly US$8 billion of the US$10 billion needed for the mega project launched with Ethiopian Airlines. Located 40 km’s south of Addis Ababa, the new greenfield Bishoftu International Airport will have an initial capacity of 60 million passengers, eventually expanding to 110 million, and transport 3.73 million tons of cargo annually.
Thelatest earnings give support to the share price performance this year
Death, taxes and an increase in the Capitec share price – these seem to be the certainties in life in South Africa. Capitec is up more than 15% year-to-date, despite the South African economy continuing to dish up tepid growth. This is because Capitec is less of a macro play and more of a market share play, with a strategy that continues to take economic value from the traditional names in the sector.
In case you needed further evidence of this, Capitec’s HEPS for the six months to August 2025 reflects growth of between 22% and 27%. They achieved this not just through growth in the loan book (something that other banks are struggling to get right in South Africa), but also through a stable credit loss ratio despite the growth in the book. This makes sense, as we’ve seen a positive story around credit quality at competing banks.
To add to the growth in net interest income, they’ve enjoyed a positive move in non-interest revenue as well. This has come from sources like Capitec Connect (which always gets the Blue Label Telecoms (JSE: BLU) enthusiasts excited), as well as overall growth in client numbers. Due to a structural change in funeral insurance policies sold since 1 November 2024, there’s also a higher contribution from that source of revenue.
Although this interim period includes a full 6 months of income from Avafin vs. just 4 months in the comparable period, I don’t think that is making much difference here. The growth is coming from maintainable sources, like ongoing market share growth across an ever-expanding range of products.
Grindrod’s HEPS has moved sharply higher (JSE: GND)
HEPS from core operations isn’t nearly as exciting though
Grindrod has released a trading statement dealing with the six months to June. As usual when a company has been going through a process of significant corporate activity as part of a turnaround strategy, Earnings Per Share (EPS) bounces around like crazy. This is why the market always focuses on Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS) instead, as it adjusts for many of the once-off items.
Speaking of HEPS, Grindrod expects growth of between 18% and 28%, which is a chunky improvement. Before you get too excited though, HEPS from core operations is expected to be flat. This includes Port and Terminals, Logistics and the various group segments that are cost centres.
The share price rallied over 3% in response to the update, so it seems like it may have been better than the market was expecting.
KAP somehow manages to disappoint even those with low expectations (JSE: KAP)
HEPS is even worse than they initially guided
KAP is one of the very few shares out there that is down over 5 years – yes, vs. a COVID base! The share price has shed almost 30% over that period. It’s lost nearly 70% of its value since the peak in early 2022. And on a year-to-date basis, KAP is down 45%.
The TL;DR is that if you like your money, it’s probably best to invest it somewhere else.
The really unfortunate thing about KAP is that nothing ever seems to improve. There’s always something in the underlying portfolio that is dragging the place down. For the year ended June 2025, KAP released a SENS announcement in early June noting an expected drop in HEPS of more than 30% for the period. It’s significantly worse than that, with an updated trading statement reflecting a decrease of between 42% and 52%.
It looks as though the fourth quarter was the worst part of the year, so that’s especially worrying in terms of momentum.
Aside from the automotive parts business that struggled with lower vehicle production by two local OEMs, the biggest issue was PG Bison’s new MDF line. They are now expensing rather than capitalising the finance costs and it’s taking them a while to really extract value from this substantial capital investment.
This would explain the vast decrease in HEPS vs. a far more modest decline in EBITDA of less than 10%. But it’s also cold comfort for investors when they see an uptick in revenue accompanied by a halving of profits – that makes it really hard to believe in a turnaround.
The bull case for KAP would make reference to the fact that the MDF project is a long-life project and that current performance isn’t an indication of its full potential. The bear case would simply point to a share price chart as an example of just how many times KAP has tried and failed to get the market to believe in a better future.
Lighthouse looks solid at the halfway mark for the year (JSE: LTE)
The interim distribution has been boosted by the Iberian deals
In 2024, Lighthouse lost its patience with Hammerson (JSE: HMN) and sold the shares it held in that fund. Although there are signs of life at Hammerson in their latest update, I think this was the right call for Lighthouse when viewed through a long-term lens. Investors are far more interested in seeing companies that have direct ownership of assets that they otherwise can’t get exposure to, rather than large stakes in other listed companies. With Lighthouse recycling the Hammerson proceeds into properties in Iberia, the overall story becomes far more interesting.
Having said that, Lighthouse’s share price is up 1.6% over the past 12 months and Hammerson is up 9.5%, so the appeal of Lighthouse’s portfolio needs to come through for that performance gap to be addressed.
This lack of growth in the Lighthouse share price is despite a 7.9% increase in the distribution per share, driven by the performance of the Iberian portfolio that was expanded over the past 18 months. They’ve made good progress in the cost ratios in the fund, which has helped them offset the impact of refinancing major borrowings in December 2024.
There were two additional acquisitions in this period, both of which are malls in Spain. The acquisition yield was 7.2% for the two properties combined. This takes the fund to a position where 58% of the directly held portfolio’s fair value is in Spain. 27.6% can be found in Portugal and the remaining 14.4% in France.
As at the end of June, Lighthouse held €14 million worth of shares in listed funds Klepierre and a far more familiar name: NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP). Lighthouse sold some shares in both those companies during this period to fund the direct portfolio expansion, so that shows you where the priorities lie.
The loan-to-value ratio has moved substantially higher from 21.1% in June 2024 to 35.0% in June 2025.
Distribution guidance for the full year of €2.70 per share has been affirmed based on the interim performance of €1.3122 per share.
Nedbank is acquiring iKhokha for R1.65 billion (JSE: NED)
Here’s an interesting growth play in South Africa
Nedbank must be pretty tired of being among the banks that is watching Capitec (JSE: CPI) eat its lunch here at home. Although the other banks are certainly also feeling the Capitec pinch, they have extensive operations in other countries to help make up for it. Nedbank is primarily exposed to South Africa and therefore needs to find a way to grow here.
Nedbank has identified SMEs as a desirable target market, with their offering set to be boosted by the acquisition of 100% in fintech iKhokha for R1.65 billion. iKhokha offers a variety of POS and ecommerce payment solutions, along with access to finance.
Nedbank has ensured that a management lock-in package has been agreed. Before you wonder about how close this lock-in comes to modern day slavery, I must point out that these packages inevitably include substantial incentives that are designed to encourage ongoing growth and innovation. It’s very important that the existing entrepreneurial culture at iKhokha will be preserved, as big corporates are famous for acquiring and then destroying startups by filling them with processes instead of ideas. Making sure that the existing management team will stick around is an important buffer against this issue.
Having said that, iKhokha isn’t exactly wet behind the ears either. Established in 2012 and having distributed over R3 billion in working capital to SMEs to date, they’ve been around for long enough to be ready for corporate ownership. Importantly, they’ve already been through a round of private equity ownership, having been part of the Adumo stable and subsequently unbundled to shareholders including Apis. Going through private equity ownership before landing up in a big corporate machine is generally a good sign.
If the Adumo name is familiar to you, that’s because it is owned by Lesaka Technologies (JSE: LSK). For clarity, Lesaka is not involved in this deal at all, as iKhokha was split out from Adumo some time ago. In fact, Lesaka is a major competitor to iKhokha in this space based on my understanding!
With a market cap of R115 billion, this iKhokha deal is 1.4% of Nedbank’s market cap. They aren’t betting the farm here, but it’s big enough to be a meaningful contributor to growth if they get it right. The announcement unfortunately doesn’t give any further details on the revenue or profitability of iKhokha.
Truworths Africa drags the group into the red (JSE: TRU)
Bucking the trend, it’s the UK business that is helping them right now
Truworths released a trading update for the 52-week period ended 29 June 2025. They did it after market close, so the market will only be able to react to it on Thursday morning. I don’t think you’ll see anyone popping champagne for these numbers.
After several paragraphs painting a terrible macro picture (always a convenient excuse for poor performance – but why then is Mr Price (JSE: MRP) doing well?), they get to the bad news: sales in Truworths Africa fell 0.4% for the full year. The second half was a gain of 0.5% vs. a decrease of 1.1% in the first half, so there’s some positive momentum at least. This shape is because of higher markdowns in the first half after a poor winter trading experience in 2024, which they attribute to the late onset of winter and stock delays at the ports. Those sound more like naturally offsetting factors to me, but anyway.
Other important stats in the SA business include 0.1% growth in account sales (which contribute 70% of sales) vs. a decline in cash sales of 1.5%. As a silver lining, the online business is growing well, up 33.7% and contributing 6.5% to total retail sales. Product inflation was 1.2% for the period, way down from 6.4% in 2024. Trading space increased by 0.5%, so they aren’t shy to keep increasing the number of stores.
Office UK is the saving grace here – well, almost. Unlike other South African-owned retailers that struggle overseas, Office UK is actually doing quite well at the moment with its niche focus on fashion footwear. Sales were up 9.7% in local currency, with 11.3% growth in the first half and 7.7% growth in the second half. Interestingly, the contribution of online sales actually dipped from 46.2% to 44.9%, with Office growing trading space by 6.4%. Given the importance to many people of trying on shoes, I can understand that there’s a saturation point for online sales in that model.
Truworths Africa is over 65% of group sales, so the UK performance isn’t enough to keep the overall story moving forwards. Group sales increased by just 2.7%, which is insufficient to deal with the combination of pressure on gross margin and inflationary increases in expenses. HEPS is therefore expected to decrease by between -7% and -11%, or by between -3% and -7% if you accept the company’s use of “pro forma” HEPS with further adjustments.
Either way, it sucks. It’s also a lovely reminder of why I’m long Mr Price, which is increasingly looking like the best of the bunch locally. The Truworths share price has lost a third of its value this year and I suspect it’s about to get worse.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
There’s a complicated legal context to this trade that included a cession and pledge agreement and then legal proceedings that seemed to reverse the pledge. But the net result of this mess is that an associate of Pieter Erasmus has acquired R1.6 billion worth of shares in Pepkor (JSE: PPH) in an off-market trade.
Blue Label Telecoms (JSE: BLU) renewed its cautionary announcement related to a potential restructure of the group and value unlock activity around Cell C. They are still finalising the terms of a proposed restructure and would need to get various approvals in place before announcing anything concrete.
If you participated in the mix and match facility in the offer for Assura (JSE: AHR) by Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP), then you’ll want to check out the announcement indicating the results of the “More Shares” and “More Cash” election – both of which do what they say on the tin in terms of the mix of how you’ll be settled for your Assura shares. The offer remains open for acceptance at the moment.
Eastern Platinum (JSE: EPS) has very little liquidity in its stock, so the quarterly results get only a passing mention down here. Revenue fell by a nasty 43.1% and mine operating income tanked by over 90%. This put them in an overall operating loss position for the quarter, which has also contributed to an even larger working capital deficit than before. Nonetheless, Investec has increased the credit facility to the company that is secured by the PGM production delivered from the Zandfontein underground section to Impala Platinum. In banking, it’s about making sure the security package is as tight as possible, with equity investors then left to fight over the net profits – or net losses, for that matter.
Due to its failure to publish financial statements for the year ended December 2024 within the stipulated time, Kibo Energy’s (JSE: KBO) listing has been suspended by the JSE. Ditto for Sable Exploration and Energy (JSE: SXM), although Sable has at least made more effort to keep the market informed about the details of its financials. Conversely, Kibo’s last SENS announcement was in May!
As a reminder of how complicated a business rescue process can be, the latest at Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON) is that yet another notice as been filed in court. I’m only mentioning this in case you ever make the mistake of thinking that business rescue is a guarantee of something being resolved quickly.
Double-digit growth in earnings at ADvTECH (JSE: ADH)
The businessmodel continues to work
ADvTECH is an interesting local company to follow. They have a mix of primary, secondary and tertiary education offerings in South Africa and elsewhere in Africa, generally catering to higher income families. This means they are targeting people who can afford to have more kids – the way middle-income people used to do! When it comes to filling up their schools, that’s a critical element of the story.
There’s also a resourcing business, although it remains an odd strategic fit with the rest of the group in my opinion.
Still, for the six months to June 2025, HEPS is expected to be between 13% and 18% higher. That’s a solid outcome, with detailed results due for release on 25 August.
Jubilee Metals has released the circular for the PGM and chrome disposal (JSE: JBL)
The deal would unlock substantial capital for the copper strategy
If you had tried to hunt down a PGM enthusiast a year ago, you would’ve been lucky to find one cowering in a cave somewhere, fighting off the last of the predators. The sector went through an absolutely terrible time, as evidenced by recent results from major players that reflect a sharp drop in earnings. The recent rally in the share prices has been driven by an improved outlook for PGMs, rather than historical earnings that have already been banked.
The problem for Jubilee Metals is that they have an ambitious copper strategy in Zambia that they need to deliver. Copper is in vogue at the moment and if Jubilee gets this right, they might become an attractive acquisition target. Even if a potential suitor doesn’t knock on the door, they should become a cash generative company with commodity exposure that is less erratic than PGMs. That’s the theory, at least.
But to get there, they need to be brave enough to cut their PGM and chrome businesses loose – at exactly the time when people actually want those assets again. This has raised few eyebrows, with some questioning why they don’t keep those assets instead. The point is that you always want to sell an asset when the market is strong, not weak.
I will never forget one of my early bosses in my career selling a truly magnificent home in Hout Bay. It had even been featured on Top Billing. I remember asking him why on earth he was selling, as everything was booming in Cape Town property at the time and foreigners were buying like crazy. I pointed out how idyllic and perfect it all seemed, with nobody able to understand the reason for the sale. “Exactly!” he said, teaching me a lifelong lesson about selling high and buying low, not the other way around. Had he not sold at the peak at that time, it would’ve been years until that price was available again – if ever.
So, with that anecdote out of the way, we return to Jubilee Metals and their disposal of the chrome and PGM operations for up to $90 million. This is based on an enterprise value (which isn’t the same as equity as it considers the underlying debt in the operations) of $148 million, which is a 6x EBITDA multiple based on FY24 EBITDA.
We’ve now reached the more valid criticism than the timing: the pricing of the deal. The FY24 earnings base is a highly depressed period, as evidenced by broader sector performance. A 6x forward EBITDA multiple would be a great outcome, based on expected earnings in the next financial year. A 6x trailing EBITDA multiple doesn’t seem very appealing. The timing of selling this house is probably right, but the asking price is much too low as the owner is arguably desperate to buy somewhere else – in this case, copper in Zambia.
Jubilee first announced this potential disposal on 5 June 2025, with the share price trading at R1.00. It is now trading 31% lower at 69 cents per share. That’s a pretty strong message from the market, but is there a further nuance worth consideration?
Well, maybe. You see, it would be incorrect to see Jubilee as a PGM player with a modest chrome add-on. In the first half of FY25, they generated 86% of their revenue from chrome, with earnings being far more sensitive to a change in the chrome price than the PGM basket price. Although PGM basket prices have climbed sharply recently, chrome prices have fallen.
There’s no easy answer here. EBITDA for FY24 was $24.6 million. At the halfway point in FY25, they were already on EBITDA of $16.5 million. If we just take the simplistic approach of doubling the interim number, this deal is a forward EBITDA multiple of 4.5x.
As a final comment, I must point out that Jubilee’s approach to this deal would consider not just the expected cash flow from the PGM and chrome operations, but the total potential return from reallocating the sales proceeds into the copper operations and giving themselves the real option of capital structure flexibility.
Holders of 30.42% of shares in Jubilee have given a letter of support to vote in favour of the transaction. There’s a long way to go to get the deal done.
Merafe’s earnings more than halve (JSE: MRF)
And the interim dividend has dropped by 80%
Merafe released results for the six months to June 2025 and they don’t make for pleasant reading. Revenue has fallen by 47%, driven by a 55% decrease in ferrochrome sales volumes, a 14% drop in chrome ore sales volumes and only the slight mitigating factor of a 9% uptick in PGM sales volumes.
Naturally, with revenue down to that extent, things don’t improve further down the income statement. Merafe took steps to suspend operations in response to weak market demand, so they managed to stem the bleeding at a 56% drop in EBITDA and a 55% decrease in HEPS.
Although they still have R1.14 billion in cash on the balance sheet, that number is down by 36%. Along with the overall pressure on earnings, it’s therefore no surprise that the dividend has fallen by 80% to 4 cents per share.
The outlook statement has a more bullish undertone than you might expect from numbers like these, but there are many risks here from demand factors through to energy costs.
Primary Health Properties managed to secure control of Assura (JSE: PHP | JSE: AHR)
Talk about a last-minute outcome!
Shareholders in Assura certainly took their sweet time in deciding whether or not to accept the offer from Primary Health Properties. This is because they would’ve wanted to retain maximum flexibility in case either a new competing offer arrived, or perhaps KKR and Stonepeak improved their offer. Neither thing happened in the end, so we have now reached the point where we have the final results of the Primary Health Properties offer.
Holders of 62.93% of shares in Assura accepted the offer, which means that Primary Health Properties will now have a controlling stake in Assura and the minimum acceptance condition has been met, as the offer was only going ahead if holders of more than 50% in Assura accepted it.
Shareholders who gave irrevocable undertakings to the KKR / Stonepeak special purpose entity will be pleased that those undertakings have now lapsed, as that offer is dead. As the Primary Health Properties offer is still open for acceptance, those shareholders will have the opportunity to accept the Primary Health offer if they so choose.
Some love from the market for Sasol – but you can’t just look at a chart for one day (JSE: SOL)
Everyone’s favourite pain trade closed 11% higher after a trading statement
Sasol has truly been one of the wildest stories on the local market in recent years, with many retail investors climbing in and being taken on a rollercoaster ride. Just look at this chart over 5 years:
As you can see, Tuesday’s 11% rally is literally a blip on this chart. It will nevertheless fuel a new wave of people talking about Sasol in a positive light, so brace yourself accordingly.
The reason for the rally was a trading statement reflecting growth in HEPS for the year ended June 2025 of between 85% and 100%. Yes, that means that HEPS almost doubled!
As always, there are a lot of messy factors at play here. For example, the Transnet settlement of R4.3 billion pre-tax has been recognised in these numbers. In fact, among the positive factors in these numbers, the only one that gives an indication of maintainable earnings is a comment that average chemicals basket prices moved higher and that there was strict cost control. As Sasol explained to the market earlier this year, their medium-term plans depend on getting earnings much higher in the chemicals business, so that’s good to see.
Unfortunately, that story is blunted by a 15% drop in the average rand price per barrel of Brent Crude, along with a 3% decrease in sales volumes as Sasol disclosed in their recent production and sales update.
There are also huge movements in impairments, but this doesn’t impact HEPS.
I have no position here, as the Sasol turnaround still feels too hard for me. Good luck to those who do! If you are interested in why I feel that way, you can refer to this Supernatural Stocks podcast that I did for Moneyweb back in May, based on Sasol’s Capital Markets Day.
With a substantial deal in the UK, Sirius Real Estate has now fully allocated the recently raise capital (JSE: SRE)
The latest transaction grows the UK gross asset value by 20%!
Sirius Real Estate raised equity capital at the end of 2023 and in mid-2024. They also raised further debt capital on the bond market in May 2024 and January 2025. It takes time to deploy this level of capital into acquisitions, with a balance needing to be struck between going too slowly (cash drag for investors) and going too quickly (potentially into poor quality deals with long-term negative impacts).
If there’s one property fund out there that knows how to do deals, it’s Sirius. Their track record in the UK and Germany is impressive. To add to the flurry of deals needed to deploy capital, they’ve now added a particularly large transaction in the form of the acquisition of the Hartlebury Trading Estate in Worcestershire for £101.1 million.
That’s a big number – and big enough to grow Sirius’ BizSpace portfolio in the UK by 20% in terms of gross asset value and 18% in terms of floor size – but only by 10% in terms of revenue. Sirius will obviously aim to improve the property over time from its current occupancy rate of 84%.
The net initial yield is 6.45%, so they’ve paid quite a lofty price for this property vs. some of the other deals we’ve seen. This is because of the future potential of this property rather than what it currently generates. There’s obviously room for improvement in the occupancy rate, as well as opportunities to increase rental revenue through positive reversions when leases are due for renewal, along with other strategies to actively manage the asset. This could include further development on the property, as building coverage is very light at the moment.
Interestingly, as the business park was originally built as an RAF maintenance base, Sirius reckons that it could be appealing to tenants in the defence sector. From an investment perspective, that’s probably the single most appealing sector in Europe at the moment.
Sirius will now need to focus on extracting the best it can from the newly acquired assets, as doing so will then give support to the next round of capital raising activities when they eventually come.
Weaver is doing lovely things for my portfolio (JSE: WVR)
I firmly believe in the BNPL growth story
As I’ve mentioned before, attending an Unlock the Stock event is a great opportunity for you to do your company research alongside not just me, but also my co-host Mark Tobin and everyone else who is on the call with great questions. I use the platform to make decisions with my own money, like my investment in Weaver Fintech (when it was still called HomeChoice) shortly after they presented on Unlock the Stock.
This has proven to be the right decision, with my position now up by a rather delightful 40%. An 11.3% increase in the share price after the release of results certainly helped with that.
Weaver is a growth stock, which is rare in South Africa. In the results for the six months to June 2025, revenue grew by 29% and the Fintech segment saw its profit before tax climb by 46.2%, now contributing 98% of Weaver’s profits.
This doesn’t mean that the retail business is a waste of time – it’s an important distribution channel for the fintech products, plus I think the HomeChoice brand has a clear understanding of their target market and what they do, something that is rare in retail in South Africa.
Importantly, with HEPS up by 45%, the interim dividend has also increased by 47%. This points to the cash quality of earnings.
Although the slight uptick in capex is one way to see the expansion in the group with 10 new retail showrooms, the better measure is net interest expense. In order to grow the fintech business, they need access to capital. Capital comes at a cost, which is why the net interest expense increased by 40.6%. You can expect more of this to come, with a new R1.25 billion bullet loan concluded in August 2025.
With growth like this in the underlying business, the next obvious thing to solve would be liquidity in the shares. Weaver is far too tightly held for institutional investors to get involved. Also, my 40% gain on paper would be very hard to realise due to the wide bid-offer spread. Luckily, I have no plans of selling anytime soon. This is a long-term thematic play for me.
TeleMasters (JSE: TLM) announced an extension to a related party consulting arrangement that carries a cost of R155k per month. The counterparty is an entity owned by a related party to the CEO of the company. It relates to two subsidiaries of TeleMasters and the arrangement was already in place when those companies were acquired. The correct governance procedures seem to have been followed, with “disinterested” directors considering the contract and the CEO reclusing himself from the discussion. To give further comfort to shareholders, the extension of the arrangement is for two years with no increase to the amount.
Gemfields has found a buyer for Fabergé (JSE: GML)
Given how challenging the core mining operations are, this is the right move
I often write about the importance of focus for corporates. Investors hate seeing a tough core story, but they especially hate seeing such a story accompanied by non-core distractions that are sucking up management’s time – and the company’s capital.
Gemfields has taken an important step towards rectifying this situation, with an agreement to sell Fabergé for $50 million to SMG Capital LLC. $45 million is payable on completion of the sale and $5 million is payable in the form of quarterly royalty payments at a rate of 8% of Fabergé’s revenue. Deferred payment structures are not uncommon. In fact, with 90% of the price payable upfront, Gemfields is in a decent position here. It also helps that there are no regulatory approvals required, so they should be able to get this done quickly.
The proceeds from sale will give the group additional working capital, something that is sorely needed in the group as it deals with a difficult global market for its gemstones, not to mention the ongoing risks of operating in countries like Zambia and Mozambique.
Fabergé’s net assets as at 31 December 2024 were valued at $50.3 million. The operating loss was $5.7 million and the loss after tax was $11.3 million. In other words, Gemfields shareholders will be happy to see the back of those fancy eggs that Fabergé is famous for.
Impala Platinum is another example of how commodity rallies are forward-looking (JSE: IMP)
HEPS has fallen sharply, yet the share price has had a great year
If you looked at the share price of the various platinum miners and compared them to recent HEPS guidance in the sector, you would be forgiven for feeling incredibly confused. Share prices have rallied sharply, yet HEPS has headed firmly in the other direction.
The reason is that the share prices move in anticipation of the next period’s earnings, not the period that already happened. Whilst this is technically true for all companies, not just the mines, the difference is that the market can forecast earnings more accurately in this sector based on observable commodity prices.
As a sign of how bad things have been, Impala Platinum’s trading statement notes that HEPS for the year ended June 2025 will be down by between 63% and 79%. This has been driven by lower sales volumes and flat revenue per 6E ounce at a time when mining costs are facing inflationary pressures.
The share price is up 80% year-to-date after falling 3% on the date of release of these earnings.
This sector is a tough way to make money in South Africa
Italtile has released a voluntary trading statement for the year ended June 2025. The word “voluntary” immediately tells you that the move is less than 20%, as a move in excess of 20% would trigger a mandatory trading statement.
Italtile has been telling us for a while now that things are particularly difficult for its manufacturing division, as there is excess manufacturing capacity in the South African market. Demand just hasn’t come through the way that many hoped in this country, as interest rates have taken their sweet time to come down. This has a significant negative impact on the building and construction sector, where the cost of debt is a key driver of the level of activity.
Italtile’s first half was better than the second half, with the company attributing this performance to the liquidity in the market from the two-pot pension fund withdrawals at the end of calendar year 2024. Turnover in the second half fell as underlying demand in the market faltered.
For the full year, the retail division’s results were up 2% and market share was maintained. Like-for-like sales increased 1% and average selling price inflation was just 0.2%, so it’s concerning that volumes were so light despite almost no inflation.
In the manufacturing division, sales fell 5% and price inflation was -1.6% i.e. they found themselves in a deflationary environment thanks to the excess capacity. And in the import businesses, sales value fell 3% and inflation was -0.9%, so that’s another set of deflationary pressures.
Gross margin was flat, as the company couldn’t put meaningful price increases through to consumers in such a weak demand environment. It’s actually pretty impressive that they came in flat when you consider the overall pressures!
For the year, HEPS will be between 0.1% and 5.2% higher. Under the circumstances, it’s a resilient result.
Italtile is down 32% year-to-date and Cashbuild has dropped 35.8%. Looking over 12 months is more interesting, with Italtile down 15.5% and Cashbuild down 4%. In other words, they’ve both given up all their gains in late 2024 – and then some.
MTN Uganda’s growth remains well ahead of inflation (JSE: MTN)
When you see growth rates in frontier markets, it’s important to compare them to inflation
If a company grows revenue by 20% in a market that has a 20% inflation rate, then real growth is zero. In all likelihood, that country’s currency would’ve declined in value over the period under review, which means that growth expressed in “hard currency” terms would probably also be minimal. This is why when you look at businesses in frontier markets (like most of Africa), you have to compare the growth rate to the inflation rate.
MTN Uganda is a standout in this regard, as Uganda’s inflation rate is remarkably low by frontier market standards. Headline inflation was just 3.6% in the six months to June 2025, so revenue growth of 13.1% at MTN Uganda is incredibly impressive. EBITDA is even better, with a 220 basis points increase in EBITDA margin, driving growth of 17.8%.
Net finance costs were stable, so profit before tax jumped by 28.1% as the benefits of both operating leverage and financial leverage filtered through the income statement.
Unfortunately, due to a once-off tax settlement, the tax expense more than doubled and thus profit after tax fell by 9.7%. As this is a highly unusual situation, it’s clear that adjusted profit after tax growth of 27.8% is a much better measure of the true performance.
Powerfleet’s numbers need a careful read because of the timing of the Fleet Complete deal (JSE: PWR)
Large acquisitions can skew growth rates
Whenever you are looking at company results, you need to be alert to whether there were any major transactions that might skew the numbers. For example, if there was a significant acquisition that is in this period’s numbers and not in the comparable period, that will naturally make the current numbers look better than they really are.
At Powerfleet, revenue for the three months to June increased by $29.8 million year-on-year, a 52.5% increase. But the acquisition of Fleet Complete contributed $26.2 million, which is most of that increase. Although there was some underlying growth in the rest of the business, there are also steps underway to reduce non-core businesses, which is impacting the overall numbers.
Here’s some good news: cost of sales increased $11.9 million, with Fleet Complete contributing $12.1 million. This means that cost of sales actually fell in the rest of the business, which helps greatly when the revenue increase was modest.
The net loss attributable to shareholders in this quarter was $10.2 million, with notable expenses being $5.8 million in the amortisation of intangibles related to the MiX Telematics and Fleet Complete acquisitions, as well as $4.2 million in acquisition and restructuring expenses.
The Powerfleet numbers therefore remain very messy due to all the corporate activity. The share price is down 43% year-to-date, a situation that isn’t helped by the complicated financials.
A pot of gold at the end of Rainbow Chicken (JSE: RBO)
The volatility in poultry sector earnings is truly breathtaking
Rainbow Chicken has released a trading statement for the year ended 29 June 2025. The percentage moves are a little crazy, with HEPS expected to increase by between 214% and 234%. This means a range for HEPS of 63.55 cents to 67.60 cents. For context, the share price is currently R4.37, so the company is trading on a Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple of almost 7x.
It feels like a lot of things went right for them this period, with higher sales volumes, lower input costs and an overall improvement in operational efficiencies. They also had lower expenses from Avian Influenza. The magical improvement in Eskom also made a huge difference here. Even finance costs were lower!
Due to the incredibly thin margins in poultry, even a modest improvement in operations can lead to higher earnings. When several things go the right way at the same time, you see outcomes like these.
The spouse of a director of Afine Investments (JSE: ANI) bought shares in the company worth R31k.
The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) bought shares in the company worth R14k.
Prime Kapital announced that its offer for MAS (JSE: MSP) is now unconditional, as Prime Kapital has decided to waive the condition related minimum cash acceptances. They say that this is based on positive feedback from the market around the level of acceptances.
Prosus (JSE: PRX) / Naspers (JSE: NPN) announced that Prosus has received clearance from the European Commission (the competition regulator) for the Just Eat Takeaway.com offer. This means that the deal is now unconditional, with the acceptance period open until 1 October. Interestingly, to get the deal across the line, Prosus offered to reduce its stake in Delivery Hero over a 12-month period, such that it will no longer be the largest shareholder.
Cilo Cybin (JSE: CCC) has released the circular for the acquisition of Cilo Cybin as its viable asset. This was set up as a special purpose acquisition company, hence why it sounds like it is acquiring itself. To my great surprise, BDO Corporate Finance as independent expert reckons that sustainable gross margin and EBITDA are 75% and 55% respectively, which means that this business is right up there with Apple Services. You’ll have to forgive me for my immense skepticism. The company made a profit after tax of R20 million in 2025 and the purchase price for the deal is R845 million, a price that BDO believes is fair. Good luck.
Frustratingly for Deneb (JSE: DNB) shareholders who may have been pleased to see the company disposing of property, the planned sale of 195 Leicester Road in Durban for R48.5 million has fallen through. The purchaser failed to pay the required deposit within the time stipulated in the agreement.
The acceptance level in the Assura (JSE: AHR) – Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) is finally starting to tick higher. They are now at 8.8%, although it obviously needs to get a whole lot higher – especially as the offer closes this Tuesday (12th August)!
Shareholders in AH-Vest (JSE: AHL) have given a resounding approval to the scheme of arrangement that will lead to the delisting of the company. The listing will be terminated on 26th August after the scheme consideration is paid on 25th August.
Sable Exploration and Mining (JSE: SXM) has noted that the expected date of release for the financials for the period ended February 2025 is 31 August 2025. The announcement also noted that the company’s Lapon Plant is currently operating at 10% of production capacity, but they expect this to ramp up over the next two months.
Accelerate Property Fund: Azrapart is a massive overhang once more (JSE: APF)
They cannot afford any further nasty surprises
Accelerate Property Fund is a great example of a highly speculative play in the market that could go one of two ways based on not just economic considerations, but also legal battles. The net asset value (NAV) has dropped considerably to 203 cents per share as at March 2025, but this is still way above the current share price of 43 cents. Hence, the opportunity for those who are brave.
Why the large discount? Well, the market knows that if the keys to the castle end up in the hands of the banks, then shareholders can easily watch their disappear into the hands of debt providers rather than shareholders. Property funds do give a better chance of dishing out net proceeds from a business rescue process than operating companies, as there are at least clearly identifiable underlying assets that have proper values, but it’s still not fun.
Speaking of the assets, the total portfolio as at March 2025 was R7.75 billion, which is well ahead of interest-bearing borrowings of R3.75 billion. It’s also worth highlighting that although the interest coverage ratio of 1.2x and loan-to-value ratio of 47.6% aren’t exactly on the right side of debt covenants by much (1.1x and 50% respectively), Accelerate is in compliance with the requirements of its bankers. Well – mostly, that is.
My understanding is that one of the terms for ongoing support by lenders is a resolution to the related party issues. Despite much hope that a settlement agreement with Michael Georgiou’s Azrapart (the holder of the other 50% in Fourways Mall) would be signed on materially the same terms as the agreement that lapsed last year, this hasn’t happened. With Azrapart now in a business rescue process, I suspect the issue is that the decision-makers have changed on that side.
Having spent considerable time combing through the latest announcement and the related party settlement plan that was announced in 2024, it looks like Accelerate’s obvious risk is a payable to Azrapart of R300 million related to a claim regarding Fourways Mall. In turn, Azrapart owes Accelerate far more than that, like R540.6 million for the headlease and R430 million across various other amounts. The idea was that these amounts would all be set-off, along with Accelerate acquiring further assets (bulk worth R75 million and parking worth R241.5 million) from Azrapart. There was also an amount that would be set off in relation to the internalisation of the property management company.
This is an extremely technical issue and the devil will undoubtedly be in the details of the legal agreements. From what I can see, aside from the immense irritation around the bulk, parking and management agreement issues, Accelerate’s cashflow risk is needing to pay R300 million to Azrapart in a claim that perhaps won’t be capable of set-off against the other claims.
Accelerate’s balance sheet is tighter than a duck’s you-know-what, so they can’t afford this – or at least, not yet. They have R1.3 billion in property recognised as being held-for-sale, as well as agreements in place to sell properties worth R688.5 million, with Portside as the largest at R580 million. Sure, there must be debt settlements tied to such properties, but that would at least generate some liquidity to deal with Azrapart in a worst-case scenario. Hopefully, the legal wrangling will lead to a situation where Accelerate isn’t forced to part with R300 million in cash to receive nothing in return.
The good news is that the R300 million is recognised on the balance sheet as a liability and they’ve fully written-off the receivables from Azrapart, so the NAV per share of 203 cents per share has some conservatism baked into it. The risk is really around cash and liquidity rather than whether there is decent net value in this thing.
Let’s look to the future. The group is aiming to get to a loan-to-value ratio below 40%, along with an interest coverage ratio of 1.6x. The R100 million rights offer that was concluded after year-end is helpful here, but they will only get there if asset disposals go well and if the performance at Fourways Mall improves.
In terms of earnings, rental income for the year ended March 2025 was down R37.3 million, with the headlease benefit at Fourways Mall more than offsetting disposals. The rest of the decline was due to negative reversions at Fourways Mall, presumably as part of improving the vacancy rate at the mall. Fourways Mall’s vacancy rate has improved from 19.0% to 13.7%. It makes sense to me that it’s better to create a vibey mall that is full of tenants than to be stubborn on price and have loads of empty shops.
Property expenses were only down R4.6 million despite the disposals, so there’s clearly pressure on net property income, which fell by 8.3% to R495 million.
Net finance costs were down 42.3% vs. the prior year, coming in at R272 million vs. R472 million. This means that the company is able to cover its finance costs with its net property income.
To add to this pain, there’s a negative fair value adjustment of R274.3 million in the portfolio. At least that’s better than R354.8 million in the prior year, but what is obviously really needed is some stability in valuations. The total fair value adjustment on the income statement is larger due to movements in other financial items.
Accelerate is as speculative as they get, with the situation having worsened thanks to the Azrapart issue. They simply cannot afford any further negative surprises, with the transaction circular for Portside expected to be posted before 31 August 2025 (the JSE has already granted an extension here).
As a final comment, the current share price of 43 cents is slightly above the recent rights offer price of 40 cents per share.
ASP Isotopes will list on the JSE later this month (JSE: ISO)
Although not conditional on the Renergen (JSE: REN) deal, that’s an important part of the plan
As things currently stand, the scheme of arrangement that will see ASP Isotopes acquire Renergen has met almost all its conditions for implementation. We are at the point where a standby offer won’t be triggered, so we know for sure that the scheme is the way forward.
This is important, as the Renergen deal is key to ASP Isotopes achieving a reasonable spread of shareholders in its JSE listing. The listing isn’t conditional upon the Renergen deal, but is certainly boosted by it. ASP Isotopes will be listed on the JSE from 27 August 2025.
The abridged pre-listing statement is now available, giving plenty of additional detail around this cutting edge company that takes advantage of an area in which South Africa can compete with the very best in the world. But if you really want to get to grips with their core business, I can wholeheartedly recommend watching the Unlock the Stock event that featured the CEO of ASP Isotopes. At the time, the Renergen deal hadn’t been announced (and we had no idea it was coming), so the entire session was based entirely on ASP Isotopes’ core business.
Here’s the link to the recording:
Assura reaffirms its support for the Primary Health Properties deal (JSE: AHR | JSE: PHP)
KKR and Stonepeak tried to sow seeds of doubt before the offer closes
I tried to find some kind of press release or public statement by KKR and Stonepeak, the competing bidders for Assura, that would’ve triggered the activity on SENS on Friday from both Assura as the target and Primary Health Properties as the favoured bid. Alas, I had no luck in locating it.
Whatever it was, it seems as though KKR and Stonepeak took note of the low acceptance rate by Assura shareholders and used it as an invitation to remind shareholders that its cash offer is still on the table. A share-for-share merger (whether there’s a cash portion or not) opens itself up to these kind of attacks, as the implied price for the target company changes every time that the share price of the acquiring firm moves. In contrast, a cash bid is set in stone, so shareholders know exactly what the value of the bid is.
The Assura board came out with a statement reminding the market that they support the bid by Primary Health Properties. Later in the day, Primary Health Properties reminded Assura shareholders of the benefits of the deal and that the offer period will close on 12 August.
As things stood on Friday, acceptances had only been received from holders of 3.68% of Assura shares. There’s a long way to go…
Despite a lot of noise in the market, the MAS board reckons that the Prime Kapital offer is legally valid (JSE: MSP)
I’m personally not surprised, given the level of the people involved
My DMs have been busy the past couple of weeks. Based on the podcasts that I’ve done with Martin Slabbert of Prime Kapital (including the most recent one that also featured Johan Holtshausen, Chairman of PSG Capital and advisor to Prime Kapital), there have been a number of asset and wealth managers who have shared their concerns with me about the Prime Kapital bid for MAS.
This is good. Debate is healthy for a market – but I must point out that concerns around timing etc. fall rather flat when the competing Hyprop bid, which was meant to be a “white knight” for the asset management community, had a far more aggressive timeline than the Prime Kapital bid. Many of the other concerns raised with me were on technical legal points, particularly related to whether Prime Kapital is even legally entitled to make an offer.
I found this interesting, as the Prime Kapital team definitely did not strike me as people who act without sound legal advice. Getting legal advice and being legally correct are of course two different things, but on something as obvious as whether a bid is a reserved matter in the joint venture relationship (i.e. needs the approval of MAS for the bid to be made), I would’ve been extremely surprised if they had gotten it wrong.
Sure enough, the MAS board has now released an announcement dealing with a number of these issues. I’m going to repeat the paragraph about legal validity verbatim:
“Having carefully considered the largely unregulated nature of the PKI Voluntary Bid and the contractual relationships which underpin the DJV, and having obtained comprehensive South African, English and Maltese law advice, the Independent Board is of the view that there are no legal grounds or formal procedures available that would enable MAS to delay or amend the PKI Voluntary Bid timeline in any way, nor is it able to challenge the implementation thereof by PKI.”
That’s a pretty strong statement.
The announcement by MAS is incredibly detailed and I won’t go into everything here. The TL;DR is that the investment mandate that was revised in 2020 gives the joint venture the power to invest in listed securities, which of course includes MAS, provided that the securities will “optimise returns” – and for further clarity, investment in securities issued by MAS is expressly permitted in the mandate. Then, in terms of the restricted matter, MAS notes that because the preference shares would be issued by a subsidiary of the joint venture and not the joint venture itself, it falls outside of the ambit of restricted matters.
That may sound too cute or even unfair to you, but there’s no concept of fairness in commercial stuff like this. The agreement says what it says. Nothing would ever get done in corporate finance if everyone argued about fairness, as (1) that means different things to different people and (2) parties with commercial incentives will argue for fairness based on their subjective position, not an objective view. Where fairness is required in corporate law, it is expressly provided for e.g. in takeover law regarding treatment of minority shareholders. Two large corporate parties negotiating with each other can (and will) work towards getting the best possible positions for themselves, with the important thing being that there are no directors sitting on both sides of the table who are conflicted at the time of the agreement. This is where the legal concept of “disinterested” directors comes in – and no, it’s not a reference to how much they are looking forward to the next coffee break on the day of board meetings.
Speaking of what is fair to shareholders, one of the most interesting nuances of this deal is that MAS is effectively in a regulatory black hole. The company’s legal jurisdiction is Malta, where there is no such thing as takeover law in their companies act. The only takeover law application would be for companies listed in Malta or supervised by the Malta Financial Services Authority, of which MAS is neither. And even though MAS is listed on the JSE, it isn’t a South African company, hence the South African takeover regulations also don’t apply.
They’ve also noted that they can’t get an independent expert to opine on the transaction in time, given the tight offer timeline. This is the same situation that we unfortunately saw in the Hyprop offer that was subsequently withdrawn.
This means that shareholders are on their own here and won’t be able to rely on the opinion of an independent expert. But given that the underlying portfolio consists of properties that are in any event revalued at every reporting date, there’s enough information in the net asset value of the fund for shareholders to work on. In other words, this isn’t an operating company where the market would benefit tremendously from an independent expert digging through the numbers and performing a detailed valuation.
For all the irritation in the market around this matter, I must point out that the cash offer on the table, as well as the implied price under the preference shares, is a substantial premium to the share price calculated over just about any reasonable period this year. It might be at an implied discount to tangible net asset value per share, but trading at a discount is a feature of property companies on the JSE.
The full announcement by MAS goes into tons of detail on these and many other underlying points, including the risks of the deal with elements like irrevocable undertakings and the unusual timeline (the offer closes on 14 August). They correctly highlight the uncertainty regarding the liquidity of the preference shares (a point I’ve been constantly writing about) and the uncertain nature of the total cash element of the bid.
Again, I would encourage you to consider all the facts at hand when forming your own view. There is no such thing as altruism when it comes to corporate dealmaking – with billions at stake, the parties on either side of the table are incentivised to get the best deal for themselves. The Hyprop offer was the best deal in town for the asset management community, as they are already deeply invested in Hyprop. Hence, I didn’t see too many complaints from asset managers about the timeline of that offer, conditional nature of that deal or the requirement for irrevocable undertakings when there are still major conditions at play, but I’ve seen plenty of noise about the Prime Kapital offer. I understand the incentives at play here and you should make an effort to do the same.
We haven’t heard the last of this matter. In fact, I doubt we are even close. Regardless of what happens in the offer this coming week, there’s still the extraordinary general meeting to get through with a potential change to the board.
The sharp end of M&A is an exciting thing!
Thungela’s HEPS has plummeted (JSE: TGA)
The coal market hasn’t been kind to them
When you’re investing in mining groups that have exposure to just one commodity, you’re really rolling the dice. The cyclicality of commodity prices is no joke, which is why investors often turn to the more diversified mining groups for their resources exposure. At Thungela, you get a pure-play on coal – for better or worse.
In the six months to June 2025, it was definitely for the worse. HEPS has fallen by between 78% and 85%, a hideous outcome that reflects not only the tough conditions in the coal market, but also the restructuring costs of R285 million that Thungela has recognised in relation to Goedehoop and Isibonelo.
Detailed results are due for release on 18 August. With the share price down 30% year-to-date, the market will pay close attention to them.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
The CEO of Invicta (JSE: IVT) certainly isn’t playing around, buying shares in the company worth R17 million.
An associate of the CEO of Acsion (JSE: ACS) bought shares worth R1.05 million.
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought more shares for his kids, this time to the value of R24.4k.
The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) remains on the bid, buying shares worth R2.4k.
Hulamin (JSE: HLM) has reached an important milestone linked to its R500 million capital investment that was announced back in 2022. This investment was designed to increase local manufacturing of cans, thereby reducing reliance on imports. The first two phases of the investment were completed in 2024 and the final phase was completed in July this year. The testing was successful, with the mill now processing trial wide-width canbody coils. The focus for the rest of the year is to complete product qualification, with commercial readiness targeted for the end of Q1 2026.
Alphamin (JSE: APH) releases such detailed quarterly production updates that the actual filing of financials is practically a non-event, such is the level of information already digested by the market. But what is interesting, apart from the declaration of a dividend, is that the new controlling shareholder (International Resources Holding) has appointed two directors to the board of the company.
Delta Property Fund (JSE: DLT) shareholders gave strong approval to the disposal of 88 Field Street, a deal that is now unconditional.
UK property fund Hammerson (JSE: HMN) has finalised the acquisition of the other 50% stake in Bullring and Grand Central, taking their ownership to 100%. This deal was announced recently along with a more encouraging outlook on regional property valuations.
Due to ill health, the CEO of Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) has stepped down from his role. It’s almost sad seeing something like that, where somebody’s career has been cut short by a factor outside of their control.
In an age dominated by AI innovations that blur the lines between reality and generative fiction, autonomous investing seems like the logical next frontier. Here, Nico Katzke, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Satrix* explores which parts of investing are likely to be impacted by AI – and (spoiler alert), the impact may not be what you expect. He unpacks this by looking at the main tools investors use to manage their funds.
Advisory Space
Investing is – and should be – a highly subjective exercise. Risk and return preferences are linked to one’s investment horizon, risk appetite and liquidity needs. If you’re investing for 12 months with a high chance you’ll need the money sooner, advice is simple: keep it safe and liquid. If you’re investing for 10+ years with little likelihood of needing the funds, your biggest risk is not taking enough risk.
Tax considerations matter too, as does the emotional challenge of staying invested – this is where advisers can be worth their weight in gold.
AI can, in theory, offer helpful generic investment advice – but only if prompted precisely and fed the right context. Robo-advisers haven’t seen the uptake many expected, and for good reason: advice is a deeply personal, human process. It often requires empathy, flexibility, and nuance; things AI doesn’t yet do well.
Investment Management
AI will certainly influence investment management but perhaps not in the ways we expect. Index investing (rules-based by nature) is a good example. Vanilla index rules are fixed. Stock weights in, say, the S&P 500 or JSE Top 40 are based on market cap. Since no discretionary decisions are made, vanilla indexation won’t be directly impacted by AI.
Instead, the impact will be indirect. As AI and machine learning make traded prices more efficient, index weights better reflect available information – which in turn makes it harder for active managers to find price inefficiencies. Opportunities will exist, but consistent outperformance will become scarcer.
Where AI might have more direct impact is in non-vanilla indexation – where rule design is more flexible. In the US, we’ve seen a proliferation of strategies with active design features. Locally, the Satrix Global Factor Enhanced Index uses machine learning to adapt weights based on stock and sector sentiment, risk regimes and other dynamic factors. This allows for unemotional, data-driven weighting using up-to-date information.
Criticisms like overfitting (great on paper, weak in future performance) and data integrity (garbage in, garbage out) apply to automated strategies – but humans aren’t immune to these either. If anything, AI and humans may end up managing side by side: machines offering efficiency and consistency, humans providing insight and emotional intelligence.
We believe vanilla passive (broad, low-cost exposure), non-vanilla indexation (intelligent rule-based exposure), and active management will all have roles in a more complex investment landscape. But more complexity doesn’t always mean better outcomes – and cost still matters. Ironically, the simplest low-cost passive strategy – where weights reflect an increasingly efficient market – may remain one of the most effective over time.
Discretionary Investing
AI is already a useful tool for managing discretionary portfolios. It’s great at summarising company info and aggregating macro views, helping novice investors make better decisions. DIY investing can be a great way to learn about markets, and some investors find it keeps them from fiddling with their long-term portfolios, which often benefit most from being left alone.
Having both a long-term strategy (with advice and cost-effective vehicles in place) and a DIY discretionary portfolio can be rewarding – both financially and educationally.
Final Thoughts
Given the rise of generative AI, it seems natural to believe the future of investing lies in automation. While data and tech will shape all areas of asset management, fully autonomous investing won’t be viable for most. AI should improve investor outcomes indirectly by reducing overall costs and making the industry more efficient; but hoping that it may disintermediate advisers or make managers redundant is likely to be a bridge too far.
*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management
Disclaimer
Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an approved financial service provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, No 37 of 2002 (“FAIS”). The information above does not constitute financial advice in terms of FAIS. Consult your financial adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information.
Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd (Satrix) is a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts and ETFs, the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of an ETF, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange. ETFs are index-tracking funds, registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange or via Investment Plans and online trading platforms. ETFs may incur additional costs due to being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Should the respective portfolio engage in scrip lending, the utility percentage and related counterparties can be viewed on the ETF Minimum Disclosure Document. International investments or investments in foreign securities could be accompanied by additional risks such as potential constraints on liquidity and repatriation of funds, macroeconomic risk, political risk, foreign exchange risk, tax risk, settlement risk as well as potential limitations on the availability of market information.
By the time she was driving her bleeding ex-husband to the hospital, Tonda Dickerson had already been sued by her co-workers, taken to court by a truck driver, and become Alabama’s most unlikely millionaire. And it all started with a single lottery ticket.
The year: 1999. The place: an ordinary diner in Grand Bay, Alabama, where a woman named Tonda Dickerson was working as a waitress.
By the age of 28, Tonda had lived a life that could inspire a country song. She was a divorced single mother who had walked away from an abusive marriage with nothing but her determination and whatever she could fit into a suitcase. By 1999, she was working five shifts a week at the diner. It was barely enough to cover her bills, but it was steady work.
That all changed on the morning that Edward Seward, a regular patron of the diner, tipped Tonda with a lottery ticket instead of cash. Technically, lotteries are not allowed in Alabama (due to state laws), but Edward was a long-haul trucker who made a habit of buying lottery tickets in other states and carrying them around with him. This particularly fateful lottery ticket had been bought in Florida.
It was meant as a quirky gesture. No one – least of all Tonda – thought it would amount to anything. A week later, the winning numbers were announced, and Tonda’s ticket hit for $10 million. Just like that, the woman pouring coffee in a diner uniform became Alabama’s unlikeliest millionaire.
The unmistakable scent of opportunity
As you might imagine, winning the lottery is like ringing a dinner bell for opportunists. Within days, four of Tonda’s fellow waitresses lawyered up. They claimed there had been a pact between them that if any of them ever won from a customer’s ticket, they’d split it evenly. When Tonda disagreed, they took her to court.
Tonda’s opposition even produced a witness in the form of a diner who swore she’d overheard Tonda talk about it right there in the restaurant. Tonda countered that the so-called “customer” was just a friend roped into the scheme, but the judge was unconvinced. The initial ruling went against Tonda, ordering her to share the winnings. But then an Alabama district court reversed it, noting that the agreement – being tied to gambling – wasn’t enforceable under state law.
Next in line was Edward Seward, the trucker who’d tipped her the ticket. When he learned that she’d won, he called up a lawyer of his own. His argument was that Tonda had supposedly promised to buy him a new truck if she won – and he was keen to collect on that promise.
Here’s where a bit of legal jargon called promissory estoppel comes in, which dictates that you can be held to an oral promise if a court decides it was reasonable for the other party to rely on it. But this particular court didn’t buy it. Statistically, a lottery ticket is worth less than the paper it’s printed on. No reasonable person, they decided, could expect a multi-million-dollar return, much less from a ticket they had willingly given away. Hence, Seward’s case was tossed out and his hopes of cashing in on Tonda’s win were erased.
If you can believe it, things got worse from there
Not long after the win, Tonda’s abusive ex-husband found out about her windfall. One afternoon, he appeared outside her home without warning and forced her into his car. He drove in silence at first, heading out of town toward a remote part of rural Alabama. When he finally spoke, it was to tell her he planned to kill her and take the money for himself.
About 20 minutes into the drive, his phone rang. While he was distracted, Tonda reached into her purse for the gun she’d started carrying after their divorce. She aimed it at him. He lunged across the seat to try and take it from her, and in the struggle she fired, hitting him in the chest.
Miraculously, he didn’t die. In a twist that is a testament to her character, Tonda urged him to get medical help, even switching seats with him so she could drive him to the hospital herself. He survived, served a short prison sentence for the kidnapping, and she walked away alive (and still rich).
Not a fix-all after all
Tonda’s story is dramatic, but sadly not unique. In fact, financial advisors have been warning for years that winning the lottery often brings more problems than solutions.
Statistics show that lottery winners are significantly more likely to declare bankruptcy than the average member of society. The windfall often draws out estranged relatives, manipulative friends, and – in some cases – outright criminals. Add to that the fact that most people are not financially disciplined or skilled enough to know how to handle a sudden influx of money, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
Just ask:
Amanda Clayton, who won $1 million, kept claiming food stamps, was convicted of welfare fraud, and died of an overdose within a year.
Michael Carroll, who blew £10 million on drugs, sex workers, and building a demolition derby in his backyard.
William Post, who won $16.2 million in 1988, was sued by his ex, and had his own brother try to hire a hitman to kill him. He died broke and estranged from his family.
When money appears overnight, it doesn’t just change your bank balance – the sad reality is that it changes the people around you – and not always for the better. Or perhaps it just reveals them?
Take a lesson from Tonda
Despite the rollercoaster ride that followed after her win, Tonda remained level-headed enough to make some very smart decisions.
Firstly, she declined a lump-sum payout of her winnings and requested 30 annual payments instead. This meant that she would be less inclined to burn through the cash all at once, and that her millions would continue to sustain her for the next three decades of her life.
Then, she went back to work – not at the diner, but at a casino, where she was employed as a blackjack and poker dealer. It wasn’t glamorous work, but it kept her in a steady routine (which meant she didn’t spend every day lying on her couch flipping though catalogues) and most importantly, it meant that she kept earning an income instead of living off her millions.
I can only imagine that working in a casino and seeing people lose money through reckless decisions daily is somewhat of a spending deterrent as well.
Despite a little bit of IRS-related drama (she was sued by the American equivalent of SARS for not paying gift tax, and ended up having to pay about $700,000), Tonda’s life looks very ordinary these days. She goes to work, hangs out with her family and friends and collects her lottery cheque annually like it’s no big deal.
Stories like Tonda’s captivate us because they’re part fairy tale, part cautionary tale. We imagine the champagne cork popping, the debt-free life, the dream house. But we also know deep down that sudden wealth doesn’t erase old problems. In fact, it often magnifies them.
Lottery hopefuls, take note: a lottery win can be salvation or destruction, and sometimes, it’s both in the same year.
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.
ADvTECH pushes deeper into Africa as a growth area (JSE: ADH)
And their track record certainly supports this decision
ADvTECH’s schools business does well because it has a differentiated offering of private schools that appeal to high income parents. This has proven to be the right approach, with Curro (JSE: COH) struggling to fill its school footprint that is essentially a broader offering to middle-to-higher income parents. Let’s also not pretend that the birth rate isn’t a serious issue here, with a more focused offering of fancier schools looking less vulnerable than a wide footprint of underutilised schools.
Part of ADvTECH’s strategy also includes high quality schools in Africa, appealing to expats and wealthier locals. Again, it’s a good model. They are expanding this offering in Kenya through the acquisition of Regis Runda Academy for around R172 million. This will be rebranded as Makini Schools Runda, which means it will operate within ADvTECH’s existing brand in Kenya.
Given the track record of success with schools like these, this seems like a sensible acquisition to me.
Blue Label Telecoms plays its cards close to its chest (JSE: BLU)
A trading statement for the year ended May 2025 has the bare minimum disclosure
There’s a particular feature of trading statements that is very important for investors to understand: they are triggered by earnings moving by a minimum of 20% vs. the prior period. This means that when a trading statement notes that earnings moved by “at least 20%” then the company is essentially giving the bare minimum required disclosure. You can contrast this to MTN below for example, where the trading statement gives an earnings range.
Over at Blue Label Telecoms, despite this trading statement dealing with the year ended May 2025 (which is now behind us by a couple of months), they’ve only taken the route of indicating moves of at least 20%. This is across HEPS, core HEPS and earnings per share (EPS) as well. In reality, the likely move is significantly higher than that, evidenced by a share price that is up by a colossal 280% in the past 12 months!
Blue Label will release earnings on 27 August. They have indicated that a further trading statement will be released before then, dealing with a specific earnings range for these core metrics.
A bit of love from the market for Metair’s turnaround (JSE: MTA)
The share price closed 6% higher on the day of a trading update
Metair is busy with a tough turnaround. The company has far too much exposure to new car production in South Africa, a long-term risk that they are trying to mitigate by moving into the aftermarket parts business. Even if we stopped manufacturing cars tomorrow, there are still millions of cars on the road in South Africa. I therefore see it as a sensible strategy to tap into this market, executed through the acquisition of AutoZone that adds to existing businesses in this vertical that offer products like batteries.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt in the meantime if volumes at the South African manufacturers move higher, with the added benefit of Metair making progress with its strategy to improve businesses like Hesto Harnesses. Production volumes in the South African market increased by 4% this period. Thankfully, Metair’s customers don’t supply directly into the US market, so there’s no direct impact from tariffs. It’s about time that Metair had some good luck. They’ve had more than anyone’s fair share of bad luck!
For the six months to June 2025, revenue from continuing operations increased by between 52% and 54%. This immediately needs to be followed up by two important nuances. The first is that Hesto is now accounted for as a subsidiary, so its revenue wasn’t in the base period (it was accounted for differently before). The second is that AutoZone is now in these numbers and wasn’t in the base.
The percentage move is therefore unhelpful. It’s much more useful to just note that revenue will be close to R8.7 billion, with expected EBIT of R440 million to R460 million. As you can see, margins are still far too low in this business, coming in at just over 5%. AutoZone is a drag on margins at the moment with negative EBIT, as they acquired it out of business rescue and will need to improve its performance as quickly as possible to get the most out of that opportunity.
From continuing operations, HEPS is expected to be between 69 cents and 72 cents, down between 6% and 10%. This is a sign of stabilisation in the core business, as the driver of that decrease is the punt on AutoZone.
Importantly, Metair has met all covenants of its restructured debt package. They aren’t completely out of the woods yet (and there’s still the overhang of the European Commission’s investigation into battery manufacturers in Europe that impacts one of Metair’s businesses), but they are clearly on the right track.
MTN’s African subsidiaries have driven a wild positive swing in earnings (JSE: MTN)
Despite Nigeria and Ghana having already reported, MTN still rallied on this news as though it was a surprise
MTN’s share price is up 123% in the past year. That’s a pretty spectacular situation for investors, helped along by the share price closing 5% higher on Thursday in response to MTN releasing a trading statement for the six months to June 2025.
With MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana having already released strong numbers for the second quarter, it was clear that the MTN group numbers would be solid as well. But the market seems to have gotten a positive surprise from just how good they were, otherwise we wouldn’t have seen another 5% rally on the day of results.
The percentage move is slightly insane, with HEPS improving by more than 300%. What this really means is a substantial swing from a headline loss per share of -256 cents into expected positive HEPS of 614 cents to 666 cents.
Detailed results are due on 18th August.
RCL Foods had a solid year – but the second half was much slower than the first half (JSE: RCL)
The sugar business had a tough end to the year
RCL Foods released a voluntary trading statement for the year ended June 2025. After an interim period in which underlying HEPS jumped by 28.9% and HEPS as reported was up 38.8%, shareholders will probably be disappointed to see that this is only a voluntary trading statement, as it means that the full-year move isn’t more than 20%.
Sure enough, HEPS from total operations will be between 5.6% and 12.6% higher, while underlying HEPS from continuing operations will be between 9.6% and 17.5% higher. Viewed in isolation, that would be decent. But after what happened in the interim period, it’s almost a tough pill to swallow.
The challenge in the second half was in the sugar business, with RCL Foods attributing the issues to the presence of imports that took market share from local volumes at a time when global sugar prices moved lower.
For all the significant movements in earnings, the share price has managed to come out flat over 12 months.
The Sappi rollercoaster ride continues (JSE: SAP)
I don’t think there’s a more volatile sector out there than paper
Do you miss Ratanga Junction in Cape Town? Wish you could get to Gold Reef City more often? Well… do I have a stock for you!
If that’s what the volatility looks like over such a long period, you can imagine what it looks like from one quarter to the next. For example, in the quarter ended June 2025, revenue fell 4% year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA tanked by 46%. With net debt up 45%, this combination was enough to push them into a net loss of $33 million vs. profit of $51 million in the comparable quarter.
But if we look over the nine months to June vs. the comparable nine months, the situation is reversed in terms of net profitability. Despite revenue being up just 1% and adjusted EBITDA falling by 15%, the bottom of the income statement shows a swing from a loss of $46 million to profit of $17 million.
The reason for profits that bounce around like a Jack Russell on heat is that the global paper sector is cyclical. Sappi is a price taker, not a price maker – just like a mining company. Then you can layer on forex movements, potential manufacturing issues across a number of underlying facilities and of course the fair value adjustments to the forestry assets as well.
And even when Sappi manages to navigate the cyclical difficulties, they sometimes have to deal with a structural decline like we’ve seen in graphic papers.
Above all, it looks like the biggest current stress is the leverage ratio increasing to 3.2x, with a perfect storm of weaker performance and a heavy capex programme at Somerset Mill. Although the worst of the capex is behind them, they now have to claw their way out of the debt. Much as one may hope that the expansion at Somerset Mill will have an immediate positive impact on profitability, the reverse is unfortunately true – there will be a period of optimising and ramping up that project.
They do at least hope that adjusted EBITDA for the upcoming fourth quarter will be above that of the third quarter that they just reported on. Let’s see if they are right.
The Foschini Group’s share price is sliding again (JSE: TFG)
The market is unhappy about something here
The retail apparel sector has had a tough time this year. I recently switched out of my Sibanye-Stillwater position (leaving a small amount behind) and bought Mr Price (JSE: MRP), hoping for a recovery there as it strikes me as the baby thrown out with the bathwater this year. With a much more difficult portfolio that includes international exposure (and no plans to pull back from that), The Foschini Group strikes me as the bathwater itself.
The share prices are highly correlated, but I’m not convinced it will play out that way for the remainder of the year:
My thesis is strengthened by the market’s sharp negative reaction to the quarterly trading update from The Foschini Group, with the share price down 5.7%. On the same day, Mr Price was flat.
The first important point when looking at the trading update is that you need to exclude the acquisition of White Stuff in the UK. Like all acquisitions, the timing impacts comparability, as you have a business included in one period and not the other. On that basis, group comparable sales for the first quarter were up just 2.5% (in ZAR), while TFG London was down 2.6% in local currency. As for TFG Australia, sales were down 2.8% in local currency. Ouch.
As we’ve seen at rival Woolworths (JSE: WHL), the Beauty category is doing the heavy lifting at the moment. The Foschini Group’s sales in this category in TFG Africa grew by 24.5%, which is way higher than Clothing (4.2%) and Homeware (8.5%). Sadly, Beauty is just 3.2% of TFG Africa’s sales, so it’s much too small to offset slower growth elsewhere.
Store sales in TFG Africa increased by just 3.2%, while online sales were up 40.2% thanks to Bash. Online is now 7% of total TFG Africa sales, up from 5.2%. The omnichannel model is certainly working well.
Credit sales in TFG Africa increased by 9.3% to now contribute 28.2% of total TFG Africa sales. They aren’t explicit in the announcement, but some quick maths shows that cash sales must therefore have grown 3.7%.
The announcement is very light on details on TFG London, which doesn’t help when sales excluding White Stuff are down. They unfortunately don’t give online sales growth with an adjustment for White Stuff either, but we do know that online is 43.1% of TFG London sales. Sales growth excluding White Stuff was 6.3% for the three weeks to 19 July 2025, but I would be very nervous putting much faith on such a short period.
And in TFG Australia, there’s also little to hang your hat on – they blame the macro environment and its impact on consumers, along with the overall extent of promotional activity in the market that is hitting margins.
In addition to this update, the market has the Capital Markets Day presentations to chew on. It includes some great stats, like in the omnichannel deck where there’s a note that omnichannel customers spend up to 9x more without cannibalisation (i.e. of in-store sales), which improves share of wallet and customer retention.
I think this is the most worrying slide for me, showing White Stuff as being right in the middle of this quadrant that describes the competitive environment:
If you try and appeal to everyone, you appeal to no one. I’m certainly no retail exec, but “bridge market” just sounds like to me like a strategy that doesn’t know what it actually is. Zara is the most valuable name on that chart and they aren’t anywhere near the centre.
As for TFG Africa, apart from the deck including an incredibly odd map that talks about the “national footprint across South Africa” and then has pins only on the Western Cape, they’ve also put out an astonishingly ambitious 3-year CAGR for turnover of 12.9%. This would drive a 3-year CAGR for EBIT of 15.9%. I think the market would be pretty happy with even half of that, so that’s a huge target to make a public commitment to.
Time will tell!
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
An associate of a non-executive director of Glencore (JSE: GLN) bought shares worth around R330k.
Montauk Renewables (JSE: MKR) is an obscure name in the market, as the company is engaged in renewable energy projects in the US. There’s not much familiarity with the business among local investors and the company doesn’t really put in any effort to change that. So, I’ll just give the quarterly results a brief mention down here on an otherwise busy day of news from companies that you’ll recognise. For the quarter ended June 2025, Montauk increased revenue by 4.1%, but suffered a 27.7% drop in adjusted EBITDA. This was driven by a 22.4% decrease in pricing for the renewable fuel that they produce. The net loss for the quarter was $5.5 million, worse than $4.8 million in the comparable quarter in 2024.
An important milestone has been achieved in the Prime Kapital offer to shareholders of MAS (JSE: MSP). The SARB has approved the inward listing of the preference shares on the Cape Town Stock Exchange. This is a biggie, as it removes a concern around South African shareholders who might otherwise have needed to accept share-based settlement without a guarantee of the listing being approved. That uncertainty is now gone and investors can consider the preferences shares based on their merits rather than their potential existence.
Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC) has announced a special dividend of 235 cents per share from the proceeds of the disposal of Life Molecular Imaging. For context, the share price is around R13.60, so this is roughly 17% of the market cap.
Here’s your daily update on acceptances in the Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) offer to Assura (JSE: AHR) shareholders: with less than a week to go in the offer period, acceptances have been received by holders of 3.38% of shares.
Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.
We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us, as well as EasyEquities who have partnered with us to take these insights to a wider base of shareholders.
In the 59th edition of Unlock the Stock, Capital Appreciation returned to the platform to walk us through their recent performance and their growth areas going forwards. I co-hosted this event with Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.
What do the colours of a popular toothpaste tell us about how we think about wealth?
In the latest episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, Alexandra Nortier and Marc Romberg, joint heads of Wealth Management at Investec Wealth & Investment International, join Jeremy Maggs to explore how the nature of wealth is changing.
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
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