Tuesday, July 15, 2025
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GHOST BITES (Nampak | RCL Foods)

Nampak is about to bank another disposal (JSE: NPK)

Here’s yet more good news for the Nampak turnaround

Back in November last year, Nampak announced the disposal of the I&CS business, which operates in the industrial inkjet printing, laser marking and case coding space. The disposal price is R142.5 million, so that’s a handy additional source of funds for the ongoing Nampak turnaround.

The good news is that things seem to have moved quickly, with Competition Commission approval having been obtained. The implementation (and thus payment date) is 28 February.


A tasty jump in HEPS at RCL Foods (JSE: RCL)

This is despite pressure on volumes in various categories

RCL Foods has released a trading statement dealing with the six months to December 2024. They expect HEPS to jump by between 31.2% and 38.6% for total operations. Purely looking at continuing operations (which is the better way to do it), the increase is even better. They expect it to be between 34.5% and 42.1% higher, which means HEPS from continuing operations will be between 106 cents and 112 cents.

The market loved this, with the share price closing nearly 13% higher on the day!

Although there was pressure on volumes in most of the Groceries and Baking categories, there were various initiatives around sales mix and input costs that did the heavy lifting and took the numbers deep into the green. The Sugar side of the business also did well despite a demanding base period, assisted by a partial recovery of the additional levy raised by the South African Sugar Associated after Tongaat and Gledhow stopped paying their obligatory amounts.

Detailed results are expected on 3rd March.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Acting through Titan Premier Investments, Christo Wiese bought R496k worth of Brait ordinary shares (JSE: BAT).
    • The CEO of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth R190k.
    • The CFO of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) has bought shares worth R97.5k.
  • Netcare (JSE: NTC) is struggling to get its succession plan executed at CEO level. The candidate they had identified for the CEO position is unable to assume the role as planned due to contractual obligations. Based on this, Dr. Friedland is staying on as CEO until the end of September 2026, which feels like a particularly long extension. They need to start from scratch in finding a replacement.
  • In further management surprises, there’s been a change of plan at Gold Fields (JSE: GFI) regarding the new CFO. Phillip Murnane is no longer able to join the company due to “personal reasons” – this has therefore allowed Alex Dall to take the post of permanent CFO after serving as interim CFO since April 2024. It seems they’ve now done the right thing, which is to appoint internal talent unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to do something different.
  • Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) had a rather modest uptake of its dividend reinvestment plan. On the UK register, holders of only 0.18% of total shares elected to receive shares instead of a cash dividend. On the South African register, it was at least a bit higher at 3.18% of total shareholders. Still, with the share price down 14% in the past year, shareholders aren’t exactly jostling to the front to get more shares.
  • Telemasters (JSE: TLM) has been trading under cautionary based on a potential change of control after a B-BBEE company approached the two largest shareholders with a non-binding expression of interest. This has subsequently been withdrawn, with the excuse being delays to regulatory processes. Either way, that deal is off the table for now. Separately, Telemasters is in the process of looking at a substantial potential acquisition that would require shareholder approval. They have renewed the cautionary announcement in respect of this deal and a further announcement is expected later this month.

GHOST BITES (Anglo American | Anglo American Platinum | ArcelorMittal | DRDGOLD | Gold Fields | Hudaco | KAL Group | Kumba Iron Ore | Lesaka)

Diamond problems continue at Anglo American (JSE: AGL)

I’ve been warning you about lab-grown diamonds for how long now?

Anglo American has released a production report for the three months to December 2024. All businesses delivered on full-year production guidance, with some highlights in the quarter being copper and iron ore.

Guidance going forward is unchanged for copper and iron ore. Alas, the same can’t be said for diamonds, where they have decreased guidance for 2025 and 2026. I don’t think we are anywhere near equilibrium yet for mined vs. lab-grown diamond sales, despite a 26% drop in production in the fourth quarter and a 22% drop for the full year. From the first half to the second half of the year, diamond prices fell by 22.6%!

At this point, the only way a mined diamond ring is an investment is if the rest of the ring is made of gold. This is a huge worry for Botswana in particular, where diamond production fell 27% for the full year. Management keeps blaming a “prolonged period of lower demand” – of course, what they fail to point out is that the lower demand is for mined diamonds in particular.

If you scan the full year production numbers, the only commodity that was higher was iron ore – and by just 1%! Even copper was down 6% due to shifts in the copper portfolio in the past year. Speaking of copper, which is where all the hype has been in the mining sector, prices were up 8% for the full year. I must however point out that they were 6% lower in the second half vs. the first half.

The share price is up 34% in the past year. It also happens to be trading at the same levels as February 2021!


No respite for Anglo American Platinum investors (JSE: AMS)

Earnings are still sliding lower

Anglo American Platinum released a fourth quarter production update and a trading statement dealing with the year ended December 2024. Regular readers will know that a trading statement is triggered by earnings differing by more than 20% to the comparable period in either direction. Those who have followed the woes of the platinum sector will already know which direction is relevant here.

For the period, HEPS is expected to drop by between 36% and 46%. That’s another truly awful year to add to the pain that has been experienced since the peaks in 2022:

There’s really not much that the company can do when ZAR realised PGM prices fell 13%. The company also notes that palladium and rhodium realised USD prices fell 24% and 30% respectively. It’s impossible to do well under these conditions.

At least the company is still profitable, with expected headline earnings of between R7.6 billion and R9.0 billion. With expected HEPS of between R28.89 and R34.21, the mid-point suggests a P/E multiple of 21x! The usual story in mining is that a high P/E is actually a sign of the bottom of the cycle, rather than the top. This is counter-intuitive and certainly not the way things work in tech.

The company achieved its refined production guidance for 2024 and had a strong final quarter, so they are doing as much as they can. Those who have been trying to pick the bottom in this sector have thus far been wrong for the last 18 months. Could the Trump administration’s policies and a possible swing in favour of internal combustion engines by consumers finally give this sector a boost? With all the trouble in the global auto sector and with platinum as such a notoriously difficult sector to make money in, I’m sitting this one out.


ArcelorMittal is still in discussions with government about the longs business (JSE: GFI)

Will there be a way to save these jobs?

When ArcelorMittal announced that the longs business would be closing, I did wonder if this wasn’t simply the next step in the dance with government. Clearly, they are losing a fortune and it cannot continue. The point is that government doesn’t seem to take things seriously until a final warning shot has been heard. That seems to be the case here, as the closure has been delayed by one month to enable ongoing discussions with government. The IDC also put in funding support and ArcelorMittal is trying to fulfil the surprisingly strong order book as well.

Will there be a miracle here? And if there is, will it be on anything close to reasonable economic terms? It sounds like we will find out late this month.

In the meantime, results for the year ended December 2024 show why the group is in crisis. ArcelorMittal describes the current conditions as the worst since the global financial crisis, with international prices under pressure and all kinds of noise around protectionist trade policies on the global stage.

ArcelorMittal suffered an operational EBITDA loss of R1.1 billion in FY24, much worse than an already terrible loss of R0.6 billion in FY23. That’s before the impairment and associated charges in the longs business of R1.8 billion!

The headline loss is R5.1 billion compared to R1.9 billion in the prior year. A fully subordinated shareholder loan is helping to keep things going but this is clearly not a sustainable solution, hence the need to cut losses where possible.

The ArcelorMittal share price chart is incredible. Tragically, it largely tells the story of South Africa from an economic perspective over the past couple of decades:


A huge jump in earnings at DRDGOLD (JSE: DRD)

Mostly thanks to the gold price, of course

DRDGOLD has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2024. They expect HEPS to be between 60% and 70% higher, so there’s some happy news for shareholders.

Group revenue increased 28% and the rand gold price was up 26%, so you can see that almost the entire increase was thanks to the gold price. The increase in gold sold by Far West Gold Recoveries was driven by an increase in yield, so there are some operational positives as well.

Cash operating costs increased by 6%, so you can now see why HEPS jumped by such a big number. The investment in Ergo’s solar plant is helping here, with a modest increase in electricity costs despite substantially higher consumption due to an increase in tonnage throughput.

Even the cash flow story is positive, with a 12% decrease in capital expenditure and thus a major improvement to free cash flow. The group has no bank debt.

The share price is up 38% in the past 12 months.


Gold Fields delivered in line with guidance (JSE: GFI)

They had a solid finish to the year

In the mining industry, guidance on key metrics like production and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) is the primary driver of the share price. It allows analysts and investors to form reasonable predictions for profits at different commodity prices. It’s hard enough estimating those prices, so mining companies that hit their guidance are rewarded by the market for at least taking that variability out of the equation. Of course, companies that miss guidance are punished.

Thankfully, Gold Fields delivered on its (admittedly revised) guidance for FY24, thanks to a helpful Q4 performance that saw the ramp-up of Salares Norte and a 26% jump in gold production. Group attributable gold production was 2,071koz (revised guidance was 2,050koz – 2,150koz) and AISC was $1,629/oz, up 26% year-on-year.

The substantial jump in costs was driven by a 10% decrease in gold sold, along with inflationary cost pressures and the usual suspects.

Despite the cost pressure, the gold price has worked its magic in the past year. This is why Gold Fields has indicated growth in HEPS of between 41% and 52%!


Hudaco had a much-improved second half, but it couldn’t save the full-year result (JSE: HDC)

And yet, the share price is up 22% in the past 12 months

Hudaco had a rough interim period in 2024. Earnings were down 15% at the halfway mark. They ended the year down 6.3%, so they had a reasonable finish to the year.

For all the GNU exuberance out there and the disappearance of load shedding, Hudaco notes that they “did not notice any meaningful change in business activity” – and that’s a concern. The ports are still a substantial problem and this is putting pressure on supply chains everywhere.

Turnover for the year was down 5.8% and operating profit fell 6.0%. It’s impressive to maintain operating margins when turnover is falling, so there’s solid cost-control at play here and a focus on gross margins. As we look at the segments though, you’ll see that there’s a mix effect here as well.

Hudaco’s consumer segment bore the brunt of the pain, with sales down 12.3% and operating profit down 19.9%. Operating profit margin was 12.2%, a drop of 120 basis points – this is what you would expect to see when sales are down. It was the engineering consumables business that saved the day, with turnover up 0.6% and operating profit up 7.6%. Acquisitions had a substantial positive impact here.

The balance sheet is also in good shape, with net borrowings down substantially over the past year. Working capital benefits were realised by inventory reductions in the group, particularly in the alternative energy business which found itself heavily overstocked at a time when load shedding went away.

Importantly, despite a 6.3% decrease in HEPS, the dividend per share was maintained at R10.25. This puts Hudaco on a 5% dividend yield, which means investors are getting paid to sit and wait for better profits.


Improved momentum at KAL Group (JSE: KAL)

This is one of the more interesting strategies on the JSE

KAL Group is a pretty fascinating business. They operate in specialist retail in the agriculture industry, as well as in adjacent categories in agriculture and manufacturing. A large part of the business is fuel retail and they’ve made substantial acquisitions in that space.

Essentially, if you can imagine a farmer out there driving along in a Hilux or Land Cruiser, there’s a very good chance that this white (or sometimes brown!) Toyota has been driven to a KAL business of some description.

At the end of FY24, trading profit growth was trending lower. The good news is that an update at the AGM has confirmed that the first quarter of FY25 has reversed that trend, other than in the manufacturing segment. Margins are still facing some pressure though, with EBITDA only up 1.8% despite revenue being 4.1% higher. This is a good indication of like-for-like growth, as there haven’t been any major expansions or acquisitions affecting this period.

So, aside from disappointment in building materials, KAL has seen much improvement after a slow finish to FY24. They’ve also experienced an increase in fuel trading profit despite an average 18% decrease in fuel prices!

Net interest-bearing debt has also reduced and the debt-to-equity ratio is down from 59% to 49%.

Although key metrics are going the right way, the same can’t be said for the share price. It has suffered the sell-off that we’ve seen across most South African consumer stocks and needs to find some support:


Another year of deteriorating rail performance made things difficult for Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO)

Transnet remains the biggest constraint here

Kumba Iron Ore released both a production update and a trading statement. Let’s jump straight to the latter, where we find the most unfortunate news that HEPS for the year ended December 2024 is expected to be down by between 43% and 48%. Ouch!

The reasons? Lower export prices and a 2% drop in sales volumes. If your two key drivers of revenue head in the wrong direction, you’re going to have a bad time.

There’s nothing that Kumba can do about export prices. Sadly, sales volumes are also largely out of their hands, as Transnet’s rail performance remains the bottleneck. All that Kumba can do is produce in line with the volumes that Transnet is able to transport by rail. Otherwise, they just end up with expensive stockpiles.

Don’t get excited about improvement in years to come. After producing 35.7 Mt in 2024, guidance for 2025 is 35 – 37 Mt. Due to planned work around the plants, production guidance in 2026 is only 31 – 33 Mt. In 2027, they think it could come back up to 35 – 37 Mt.

So, unless iron ore prices head in the right direction, it’s a rough few years ahead. This is why the share price is down 36% in the past year.


Lesaka’s adjusted EBITDA looks promising (JSE: LSK)

The share price has had an excellent 12 months

Lesaka Technologies is a genuinely interesting local company that is building out an empire in the fintech space. This means you’re going to see a style of reporting that is typical of tech startups, with focus on adjusted EBITDA in particular.

It’s also all about hitting guidance rather than being highly profitable at the moment, as the group is firmly in growth phase. It’s therefore very helpful that Lesaka achieved its revenue guidance for Q2 2025 and was ahead of adjusted EBITDA guidance, even though the net loss actually increased substantially year-on-year due mainly to negative fair value movements in a non-core asset.

They also report something called fundamental earnings per share, which improved by 12% and was positive.

Moving on from the various ways of slicing and dicing the group results, we reach the segmental view. The merchant division saw revenue decline 5%, but net revenue (which is more important) was up 68% and adjusted EBITDA was up 32%. The consumer division saw net revenue increase by 31% and adjusted EBITDA jump by 61%.

The group has now delivered on profitability guidance for ten quarters in a row. The market appreciates this kind of consistency, which is one of the reasons why the share price is up 34% in the past 12 months.

Guidance for FY25 is adjusted EBITDA of R900 million – R1 billion. In FY25, they expect this to jump to R1.25 – R1.45 billion. The acquisition of Recharger is included in that guidance.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An independent director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth around R475k.
  • MAS (JSE: MAS) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to negotiations with Prime Kapital regarding the 60% interest in PKM Development Limited. They hope to finalise contracts before the release of results for the six months to December 2024, so that implies that there are only a few more weeks to wait.
  • After the suspension of Exxaro’s (JSE: EXX) CEO Nombasa Tsengwa and all kinds of allegations flying around of an intimidating management style, we’ve now arrived at an outcome where she has resigned with immediate effect. This is despite a court bid to challenge the suspension, so I’m not sure what will now happen there. The details may all stay under wraps now, as is often the case when an executive chooses to leave. Finance Director Riaan Koppeschaar has been acting as CEO during the suspension and will continue to do so until a permanent CEO has been appointed.
  • Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) is acquiring an iron beneficiation plant in Limpopo for just under R19 million. The plant is modular by design and Mantengu can deploy it at strategic locations to reduce the cost of production. Mantengu has acquired the plant out of a liquidation sale and so they probably got it for a great price. The announcement certainly has lots of promising statements around lower cost production and creating value for shareholders. There’s also a chance of Mantengu acquiring the entity that is currently being liquidated, which would lead to it holding shares alongside the IDC.
  • To support its acquisition and business plans in the UK, Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) has appointed a senior executive to BizSpace. Here’s the interesting thing: the executive comes with deep experience in the self storage space, an area that Sirius already has extensive investments in. Clearly, they are looking to add to that. This will include the conversion of several sites within the existing portfolio.
  • Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) is ready to catch up on lost time at its Roan operations. With a power source now secured, they are investing in 200,000 tonnes of copper material which is available for immediate processing at Roan. This more than doubles the waste material currently being processed. If all goes well, they have the capacity to do far more high grade material and they also have the option to increase the allocation of material. Perhaps most interestingly, they are paying for the material by issuing new shares! The issue price is 4.20 pence per share, which is slightly above the current spot price. The shares are subject to a 180-day lockup period. For context in terms of size, this copper materials deal is valued at $2.7 million and Jubilee’s market cap is R2.8 billion. This seems like a very cute trade to me! They are also finalising the due diligence on the Large Waste Project and hope to conclude the transaction by March 2025.
  • Hosken Consolidated Investments (JSE: HCI) holds 51% in Impact Oil and Gas, which in turn is a 9.5% participant in two blocks offshore Namibia. Impact released an update after completing drilling in one of the blocks, where black oil was encountered. The management commentary sounds bullish about what this means for the strategy to “prove up” resources and move towards the first development.
  • Trencor (JSE: TRE) has finalised the dates for its R7.30 special dividend. The current share price is R8.25, so this is the bulk of the value in the group being distributed to shareholders. The record date is 21st February and the payment date is 24th February.

GHOST BITES (Copper 360 | Sappi | Sasol | Sea Harvest | Sirius Real Estate)

It’s time for hard rock at Copper 360 (JSE: CPR)

Someone fetch the guitars!

Copper 360 is in the process of developing the Rietberg Mine. For the first time in 42 years, there has been an on-ore blast at the mine. There’s going to be more of this, as development at Rietberg Mine will continue over the next 9 months.

I’m certainly no geologist, so I can only repeat the message that management has driven home here: this moves Copper 360 past the “historically unpredictable broken and transitional rock” to “structured hard rock” – and no, this has nothing to do with a musical journey across the decades. Instead, it has to do with the certainty with which Copper 360 can estimate the grade and other characteristics, as harder rock has higher in-situ copper grades.


Sappi had a strong quarter (JSE: SAP)

Especially when you compare it to the prior year

Sappi has released results for the first quarter of the financial year. This covers the three months to December 2024. The improvement vs. Q1 in the prior year is remarkable, with a 7% increase in revenue and a 56% jump in adjusted EBITDA. That was enough to swing from a loss of $126 million to a profit of $70 million!

They attribute this to a broad range of positive factors, ranging from selling prices and sales volumes through to cost savings. They’ve had to struggle through a difficult global macroeconomic backdrop that has seen much disruption to segments of the paper industry in regions like Europe. A number of these challenges are still there, but Sappi’s willingness to act has ensured that the group can still succeed.

The metric that went the wrong way year-on-year was net debt, up 16%. This was due to higher capital expenditure (attributed to the Somerset Mill) and a working capital outflow based on timing of debtor receipts and an inventory build ahead of the Somerset Mill PM2 outage scheduled for Q2. One of the offsetting factors was the receipt of proceeds from the sale of Lanaken Mill. It’s worth noting that a quarter-on-quarter view shows that net debt decreased over three months when translated into dollars.

Prepare yourself for a second quarter that isn’t as strong as this quarter. Aside from external pressures ranging from a seasonal slowdown in China through to ongoing weak markets in Europe and of course tariff uncertainties, there’s also the planned work at Somerset Mill PM2 that will see it shut for an expected 70 days. Ramp-up of the converted facility will see more sales to the lower margin food service market, so that’s also going to impact the numbers. They expect a $21 million impact just from Somerset Mill.

There are other maintenance shuts planned for the quarter as well. Notably, these happened in Q1 last year, so this impacts year-on-year comparability, especially when they are expected to have a negative impact of $45 million!

On top of all this, they have raised capital expenditure expectations for the year. Along with the warnings around the second quarter, this would’ve contributed to the share price closing 4.8% lower despite the strong year-on-year view. Sappi is now flat over 12 months. You really don’t get much in the way of long-term returns in this sector beyond the dividend, so I see it as more of a trading stock than an investment stock.


As you would expect, Sasol’s earnings are down (JSE: SOL)

Oil prices, margins and sales volumes all went the wrong way

Sasol’s most recent production update gave us a strong clue that earnings weren’t going to be a story of joy and happiness. The market braced itself with a major sell-off, although we now find ourselves in a situation where Sasol is basically flat year-to-date!

Market volatility and noise aside, Sasol has now released a trading statement for the six months to December 2024 that confirms the pressure on profits. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between 11% and 22% lower, while headline earnings per share (HEPS) is down by between 26% and 36%. This puts interim HEPS at between R6.00 and R8.00. The current share price is just above R88.

There are a few reasons for the drop, with a decrease in sales volumes obviously not helping in the slightest. Sasol also suffered from lower Brent Crude oil prices and a “significant” decline in refining margins. A mitigating factor was an increase in the average chemicals basket price, as well as Sasol’s initiatives around costs and capital expenditure.

Still, it sends a message about the troubles at Sasol that there was another R6.2 billion worth of impairments in this period. That’s even worse than R5.8 billion in the comparable period. The major contributor was capitalised costs of R5.6 billion at Secunda and Sasolburg, all of which were impaired to take the value of that business back down to zero on the balance sheet.

These impairments don’t impact HEPS but they do impact Earnings Per Share (EPS). One of the biggest differences between HEPS and EPS is that the former strips out the impact of impairments (and a few other things). That’s why EPS fell by between 47% and 61%, a far more severe drop than in HEPS, despite impairments being in the prior and current periods.


Sea Harvest’s adjusted HEPS has moved lower (JSE: SHG)

And in this case, the adjusted number is the right one

At first, I got quite a shock when I saw that Sea Harvest’s HEPS for the year ended December 2024 would be down by between 42% and 47%. The very next paragraph in the announcement explains it though, as there was a once-off gain included in HEPS in the comparable period. Although most once-offs are removed, there are some that don’t meet the definition for HEPS.

To avoid skewing the numbers, companies then report adjusted HEPS, as is the case here. On that metric, Sea Harvest experienced a decrease of 2% to 7%, which suggests a range of 61.2 cents and 64.5 cents. That’s a lot more reasonable.

Underneath all this, we find 7% revenue growth in the South African hake business despite low catch rates. The pelagics and dairy segments put in a strong performance, but an oversupply of prawns impacted pricing – talk about a high quality problem for consumers! Other issues included reduced demand based on economic pressure in China, which in turn impacted abalone pricing.

And you don’t have to be a fishing expert to understand this next source of pressure: high interest rates and levels of debt. The bankers get to eat at the table before shareholders do.

The share price closed 4.9% lower and is now only slightly above the 52-week low.


Sirius Real Estate has announced yet another acquisition (JSE: SRE)

As I wrote yesterday, you can expect to see more of these!

Even though the ink is barely dry on the first SENS announcement this week that dealt with the acquisition of Reinsberg business park, Sirius Real Estate is out with news of another acquisition. This second transaction is smaller and is in the other region of interest: the UK.

Unlike the Reinsberg deal, the Earl Mill business park in Oldham in the UK has 95% occupancy. Despite this, they managed to buy on the asset on a huge net initial yield of 13.9%. Remember, the higher the yield, the cheaper the asset!

I can only think that the property needs a fair bit of capex or that the lease is expiring soon, as that acquisition price doesn’t make sense in any other context. The announcement isn’t explicit on this though, with only a passing mention of future value creation opportunities linked to vacant space, environmental ratings and future development.

When you’re buying on a yield of 13.9%, you don’t need to worry about future value creation. The deal itself is creating value!

It’s just a pity that the deal is only sized at £5.7 million, which makes it much smaller than the €20.4 million Reinsberg deal that was at a far less lucrative yield.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An entity associated with Michiel le Roux, co-founder of Capitec (JSE: CPI), has added another 100,000 Capitec shares to a hedging transaction that goes back to August 2021. The original transaction covered 330,000 shares and there was a further transaction in November 2024 for 95,000 shares. The new structure includes put options at strike prices of R2,660 and R2,811 per share (depending on which tranche) and call options at R3,643 (it sounds like that call option strike now applies to all the shares from November 2024 and this tranche). For reference, the current spot price is R3,118.
  • Although I usually don’t comment on changes to stakes held by asset management firms in listed companies, I think there’s enough noise around Renergen (JSE: REN) to warrant a mention that Mazi Asset Management has upped its stake from 9.21% to 13.53%. Mazi are either going to look like heroes or fools here, as this is about as risky as it gets right now. Hopefully it will be the former!
  • It’s not absolutely clear at this stage whether Emira Property (JSE: EMI) will still going ahead with the second tranche of a deal with DL Invest Group in Poland. The date for delivery of the subscription notice has been pushed out to 28 March 2025, failing which it will lapse. To get that done, Emira needs to release a Category 1 circular, which requires a lot of financial information. Emira is trying to finalise the circular and meet the deadline, so for now at least there’s still a willingness from the company to push through. This is also of relevance for Castleview (JSE: CVW) shareholders, as Castleview holds 59.3% in Emira.
  • In very sad news from Harmony (JSE: HAR), there have been two separate loss-of-life incidents leading to five employees passing away. Two were involved in a mining incident at Doornkop Mine in Soweto and three in a fall of ground incident at Joel Mine in the Free State. These are obviously unrelated incidents and they show how much danger there still is in mining.
  • Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) finally released earnings for the six months to September. Revenue was R84 million and the headline loss per share was 0.13 cents, which is better than the loss of 9.91 cents in the comparable period.
  • There’s been a substantial change to the shareholder register at South Ocean Holdings (JSE: SOH). Metallic City International Limited sold its 20.19% shareholding to SAF Metal Holdings LLC, a US company. Will there be more action here? Only time will tell.
  • Oando (JSE: OAO) is executing what sounds like a scrip distribution based on one new share for every twelve held. There are two tranches, the first of which is this month.

GHOST BITES (Bowler Metcalf | Boxer | MultiChoice | Sirius Real Estate | Pick n Pay)

Bowler Metcalf’s margins have jumped, but it’s mainly for non-recurring reasons (JSE: BCF)

This is why you have to read carefully

A quick glance of the Bowler Metcalf numbers suggests that there is cause for celebration. Revenue increased 6% and profit from operations jumped by 22% – a lovely outcome indeed! Headline earnings was up 17%, so surely this is a decent story of maintainable growth in margins?

Sadly, the concept of headline earnings doesn’t adjust for every non-recurring item. It’s impossible to make a comprehensive list. In smaller companies especially, it’s very possible to have things in headline earnings that skew the numbers. In this case, it’s the non-recurring of once-off roof repair costs in the previous reporting period in the property segment. The Plastic Packaging segment generates over 90% of group profit and operating profit in that division was up 6.2% based on revenue growth of 5.8%. In other words, don’t get too excited about the margin trend here, as it isn’t reflective of the underlying business.

Another thing to keep an eye on is cash, which came under some pressure this period to support sales and buy strategic raw materials for inventory. They expect cash to normalise in the second half of the year.

This is a decent result from the company. It’s just nowhere near as exciting as it first appears to be.


Boxer continues to please the market (JSE: BOX)

Unlike practically every other retailer, their share price is slightly up year-to-date

After listing at the end of November 2024, Boxer has some big expectations to live up to. Thankfully, the recent trading performance is in line with the guidance in the pre-listing statement, so that’s the ideal start to life as a separately listed company. As a reminder, the guidance for FY25 is like-for-like growth of 5% – 7% and total sales growth of 10% – 12%.

For the 45 weeks to 5 January, they were near the top of that range with like-for-like growth of 6.7% and total growth of 11.4%. Things did slow down in the latter part of that period though. For the 19 weeks since the interim period (i.e. the 19 weeks to 5 January), like-for-like growth was 5.5% and total growth was 10.8%. This was primarily due to the business lapping a much stronger base period in the second half of the year.

Oddly, product mix had a huge impact on how they calculate price inflation. Using Boxer’s standard methodology, they come out at 6.1% inflation. Adjusting for mix changes suggests inflation of 0.0%, which Boxer believes is a better reflection of what’s really going on.

Importantly, gross profit margin is in line with expectations and they are on track with store rollouts, including Pick n Pay conversions. There are always going to be some challenges (like delays in the granting of liquor licences), but overall this is a strong update that shows how Boxer is causing headaches for sector leader Shoprite in the lower-income side of the market.


Canal+ is jumping through the hoops to try make the MultiChoice deal work (JSE: MCG)

They really do want this thing

If you’ve been following MultiChoice recently, you’ll know that the only thing supporting the share price is the R125 per share deal on the table from Canal+. Without that, I genuinely don’t know where the bottom would be based on the extremely worrying recent numbers.

It’s therefore critical that the deal goes ahead. This hasn’t been a certainty, as there are major regulatory hurdles related to the complexities of B-BBEE laws and other laws applying to foreign ownership of a broadcaster.

Thankfully for all involved, the parties have come up with a structure that they reckon will work. It revolves around carving out MultiChoice South Africa, which holds the local broadcasting licence and the contracts with subscribers. This entity will be 51% Black-Owned, achieved through a 27% stake by Phuthuma Nathi, as well as two consortiums (Identity Partners Itai Consortium and Afrifund Consortium) and a trust for employees. MultiChoice Group, which by that stage will be owned by Canal+, will have a 49% economic interest in the local entity and 20% voting rights.

Assets not directly related to the broadcast licence but currently housed in MultiChoice South Africa will remain in that entity, with Phuthuma Nathi having a 25% stake and MultiChoice Group having 75%.

Of course, what is really sitting behind all this is the commercial arrangement between MultiChoice South Africa and MultiChoice Group. This is where the clever financial modelling would’ve happened to help Canal+ obtain the economic benefits that formed the underpin of the R125 offer.

The Competition Commission still needs to opine on the structure, so anything is still possible. Other regulatory approvals are also required across multiple jurisdictions.

As a reminder, Phuthuma Nathi is separately listed and you can invest in it directly if you are a qualifying Black shareholder.


Signs of life at Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK)

Growth is still far below Shoprite though

With Boxer now separately listed, you should refer to that update further up for how Pick n Pay’s investment in Boxer is performing. In this section, I’m focusing purely on Pick n Pay itself.

There is some positive momentum in like-for-like sales, which is encouraging. Although Pick n Pay’s like-for-like sales were up just 1.6% for the 45 weeks to 5 January, they were up 3.0% for the 19 weeks to 5 January. As selling price inflation dipped towards the end of the year, an increase in like-for-like sales is good news as it means that volumes are trending in the right direction.

Of course, due to store closures, total sales growth is going to be lower than like-for-like sales growth, but that’s part of the broader restructuring plan to try and emerge as a smaller but profitable retailer.

One of the usual growth engines, Pick n Pay Clothing, didn’t offer particularly exciting growth on a like-for-like basis. Like-for-like sales were up just 1.7% for the 45 weeks to 5 January, with store openings taking total growth to 10.0%. There was an improvement towards the end of the year at least, with like-for-like sales in the latter 19 weeks up to 3.6%. It’s in the green, but that’s nothing special.

Online growth was 42.5%, so a consumer preference for convenience shopping continues to shine through across the retailers.

The disappearance of load shedding and much improved market sentiment in South Africa gave Pick n Pay a chance. They have grabbed it with both hands and although growth is still far off the levels of Shoprite, at least they are heading in the right direction.


Sirius Real Estate acquires a business park in Germany (JSE: SRE)

And of course, it comes with an opportunity to actively improve the asset

Sirius Real Estate is sitting on plenty of capital that needs to be deployed. Cash drag is a real thing, so they also can’t wait forever to get the deals done. Luckily, this is bread-and-butter stuff for Sirius, especially when it comes to finding properties that have room for improvement.

This is the key feature of the Sirius business model: seeking out properties that have active asset management opportunities. In other words, they are fixer-uppers at least to some extent. Bonus points of course if they come with a decent existing tenant base that can generate cash flow while the rest of the property is sorted out!

This is exactly what they’ve found in Saxony, Germany. Sirius is acquiring Reinsberg business park for €20.4 million. The property is 75% occupied and they’ve acquired it on a 6% net initial yield after purchase costs. Importantly, the 25% vacancy is the opportunity to ramp up the income on the property and thus its value.

I expect to see many more acquisitions this year at Sirius that follow a similar playbook.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A non-executive director of Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) sold shares worth R116k.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth R25k.
    • An associate of a director of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) bought shares worth R17k.
  • The ex-CEO of STADIO (JSE: SDO), Dr Christiaan Rudolph van der Merwe, will retire at the next AGM in June 2025. His position on the board will not be replaced. The company also announced management changes, including the current COO of Stellenbosch University being appointed as CEO of STADIO Higher Education. This is a clear separation of the roles of STADIO Group CEO and STADIO Higher Education CEO, with Chris Vorster continuing in his role as Group CEO. Private tertiary education remains a strong growth area in South Africa.
  • Assura plc (JSE: AHR) announced the completion of two development projects that are designed to be net zero carbon. There’s a huge focus on this in the UK and although the announcement doesn’t explicitly say this, taking this approach with new developments is the smart way to attract funding at preferential rates with an ESG lens.
  • Trustco (JSE: TTO) has given us a clue that the planned Nasdaq listing is still on the cards. They have set up a dedicated contact list for shareholders to communicate with them during a “transition period” between the removal of the current listings (if that goes ahead) and the new listing on the Nasdaq.
  • Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) now only expects to release financials for the six months to September 2024 by 7th February. This is after they released a trading statement on the 31st that noted that results would be released on the same day! Sigh.
  • The scheme of arrangement related to Workforce Holdings (JSE: WKF) has become unconditional, which means the price of 165 cents per share will be paid and the shares will be delisted.

GHOST WRAP – Retailers on sale on the JSE

Listen to this podcast to get insights into the retail sector from the first few weeks of trading in 2025.

In clothing, it’s quite clear that Pepkor and Mr Price had stronger numbers than The Foschini Group and certainly Truworths, yet the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater in that sector.

Woolworths is a hybrid model and this is reflected in the performance, with the food business looking far stronger than the rest of the group.

In grocery, Boxer has been the most defensive stock thus far in 2025 and had a solid festive season. Shoprite put in a predictably strong performance as well vs. peers. There are signs of life at Pick n Pay, but it remains well below Shoprite. Spar hasn’t delivered a trading update yet, so the focus there is on cleaning house and getting out of broken investments (like Poland).

We save the best for last: Lewis. The latest numbers are highly impressive and when you consider the discretionary nature of the business, the share price resilience in 2025 has been especially promising. 

The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Forvis Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Forvis Mazars website for more information.

Listen to the podcast here:

Transcript:

Some months are trickier than others when it comes to picking the key themes to cover in this podcast. Luckily, January 2025 was rather obvious though: the retail sector.

If my Little Ghosts had come into this year holding a basket of local retail stocks, they would definitely be telling me about their “owie” – and I’m afraid that neither a kiss nor a plaster would fix it. The clothing retailers really bore the brunt of the sell-off, with Woolworths as the best of a bad bunch, down 4%. Let’s face it, that’s only because of the Food side of the business, which makes Woolworths quite hard to classify in terms of its true peer group.

Truworths is down 17% thus far this year, deservedly holding the wooden spoon in the sector. The Foschini Group isn’t far behind with a 16% drop. Mr Price has been dealt a rather harsh hand I think, down nearly 14% despite releasing strong sales numbers. Pepkor is down 7% and that’s also despite releasing really strong numbers.

It’s a bloodbath.

On the food side, with Woolworths shown once more for completeness, we see the defensive nature of these stocks shining through. The market is still strongly in support of the Boxer story, with a flat performance there despite some pressure in late January. Predictably, Shoprite has suffered less than its peers (other than Boxer), but is still in the red. SPAR has had a tough start to the year and Pick n Pay has been similar.

Not shown on either of these charts is Lewis, with a decline of just 0.9%. Yes, when it comes to the retailers, only Boxer has beaten Lewis thus far in 2025. How many people would’ve guessed that, coming into this year?

Clothing: the tide is out

We can well and truly see who has been swimming naked. Truworths is the worst of the lot, with Truworths Africa down 1.1% for the 26 weeks to 31 December. Sure, they may have achieved 9.9% growth in Office UK (measured in ZAR), but Truworths Africa is still two-thirds of group revenue and we know how fickle the UK retail market can be. Banking on sustainable growth into the UK is a risky game and the market clearly shares that view, as the share price has been punished for the tepid growth in Truworths Africa. For the 26 weeks to 29 December 2024, Truworths expects HEPS to be between 4% and 8% lower. That’s poor.

The Foschini Group is better than Truworths but is in no position to be looking smug here either. Although we have to be careful here as we aren’t looking at exactly the same reporting period, TFG Africa grew 5.3% for the quarter and just 2.2% for the financial year-to-date – so that’s better than Truworths at least. TFG London was up 45.5% for the quarter and 7.2% for the financial year-to-date, both percentages in ZAR, so they are also seeing some joy in that market at least. As for TFG Australia though, the quarter saw a decrease of 3.0% and the year-to-date performance is a drop of 5.2%. TFG Australia is slightly bigger than TFG London, for now at least, so that offset much of the happiness in the UK and the group sales result was just 1.6% year-to-date. At least the third quarter saw growth of 8.4%, so there’s some positive momentum there, but it is still nothing amazing.

We now move on to Mr Price, where there’s a strong story to tell for the 13 weeks to 28 December 2024. Credit sales were up 5.7% but that’s not even the highlight. No, that honour goes to cash sales, up 11.1%. The group has won market share for six consecutive quarters and they even achieved the recent growth at a higher gross margin than in the comparable period. They came into the year priced for perfection in the market after a huge rally in 2024 that caught me by surprise. The recent sell-off is more a function of that valuation I think, than the recent results which were strong.

Finally, Pepkor. In my opinion, this is the best story of the lot. The two major segments put in solid high single digit growth and fintech was up a delightful 35% for the three months to December 2024. PEP and Ackermans (the key banners in the group) both put in strong performances and this is exactly why the fintech business also did well, as they work so closely together. In fact, Pepkor refers to it as a credit interoperability strategy. Tongue-twisters aside, it works and it works well. The disappointment in Pepkor was Avenida, the Brazilian business that I’m enjoying keeping an eye on. Like-for-like sales fell by 2.7% and they need to get that back on track. Still, that’s a small negative in an otherwise powerful result and the good news at Avenida is that sales have improved in 2025.

Woolworths: the hybrid option

Sometimes I wonder whether Woolworths will ever spin the food business off and list it separately. I don’t think it will happen as the operations are intertwined with the clothing side of the business, but it’s a nice dream. It’s certainly a far superior business to the Fashion, Beauty and Home (FBH) offering.

For the 26 weeks to 29 December, Woolworths Food grew 9.0% excluding the acquisition of Absolute Pets. FBH could manage just 2.5%, which puts them ahead of Truworths admittedly (not much of a benchmark) and pretty much nobody else. In fact, it may even be worse than that, as FBH growth was a paltry 0.9% in the last eight weeks of 2024, so it just got worse and worse. For two years in a row, they’ve been blaming supply chain issues. Look, if festive supply chains keep catching you by surprise, then I’m really not sure that retail is the right sector for you bluntly. It becomes almost a little embarrassing now to keep blaming external factors while underperforming competitors. It also keeps getting worse in Australia as well for them, with Country Road Group sales down 6.2% for the period. The same pressures that are seeing at TFG Australia are playing out at Woolworths.

If Food and FBH were listed separately, the share price chart would look like the two lines had a terrible fight and never wanted to speak to each other again, such would be the speed at which they headed in opposite directions.

Shoprite still leads

The giant of local supermarket retail continues to remind us why they are so respected. For the six months to 29 December 2024, sales from continuing operations increased 9.6%. Supermarkets RSA was good for 10.4%. Digging even deeper, Checkers and Checkers Hyper were up 13.5%, so that’s strong outperformance even vs. Woolworths Food as their arch-rival, never mind the rest of the sector. Shoprite and Usave were up 6.7%, which is still impressive, albeit much slower than Checkers and Checkers Hyper.

With the growth in the right place from a margin perspective, I expect to see a juicy jump in HEPS when results come out on 4th March.

Hot off the press, there’s an update from Pick n Pay. Although it’s strictly part of February, it would be really silly not to include it here. Pick n Pay managed like-for-like sales growth in the 19 weeks to 5 January of 3.0%. That’s an improvement on where they were of course, but it’s still way below Shoprite and you have to remember that Pick n Pay is closing supermarkets, so like-for-like growth is probably the most flattering view of the business. It’s also the most important view, but without new stores, there’s no other growth to add on top of that. Within that segment, we find Pick n Pay Clothing with like-for-like growth of 3.6%, so even that’s not much of a growth engine anymore it seems.

Over at Boxer, which of course is now separately listed, we see like-for-like growth of 5.5% over the 19 weeks to 5 January and total growth of 10.8% as the store footprint is still expanding. Boxer is the food retailer that is capable of keeping Shoprite on its toes, albeit in only one customer vertical.

In case you’re wondering, there’s no sales update from Spar. All we know is that the nightmare in Poland has come to an end and they’ve effectively paid the buyer R2.67 billion to drag the carcass away. Good riddance to it.

Ending on a positive note with Lewis

I can’t bucket them in with the clothing retailers or the supermarket retailers, even though there’s some overlap at category level or with specific divisions, like the furniture piece of Shoprite that is currently being sold to Pepkor. No, Lewis deserves to stand on its own here, particularly after the recent update.

Merchandise sales have been heading higher. For the third quarter, they came in at 9.9% – a lovely acceleration from 7.7% in Q1 and 9.3% in Q2. As this drives income and ancillary services revenue, the overall group result was revenue growth of 13.6% for the nine months to December. Suddenly, Lewis is putting its hand up as a growth stock rather than a value stock.

Much like at Mr Price, the big jump at the end of the year was cash sales. I think that tells us a fair bit about where the two-pot withdrawals went. After all, this is furniture we are talking about, suddenly paid for with cash.

This is the one obvious caution that I’ll leave you with: double-digit cash sales at Lewis almost certainly aren’t sustainable. But still, they deserve to do well after years of solid execution and great capital allocation decisions. Bravo!

GHOST BITES (Harmony Gold | Merafe | Pepkor | Schroder European Real Estate | Super Group | Vodacom)

Harmony is on track to exceed full year production guidance (JSE: HAR)

This is what the market likes to see

Harmony Gold has updated the market on its performance for the six months to December 2024. They achieved gold production of between 790,000 and 805,000 ounces. This is well down on the comparable period in 2023, in which they managed 832,329 ounces.

All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) will be between R960,000/kg and R985,000/kg. That’s a big jump from R843,043/kg in the comparable period.

If you look at the guidance for the full year, it gives us clues about the reasons for this. The comparable period saw higher production from the South African underground portfolio and Hidden Valley. Aside from planned production increases and decreases, there are also grade differences that have an impact on the amount of gold that actually comes out of the ground.

Despite this, the share price is up 82% in the past 12 months! There’s only one possible explanation of course: the gold price. Sure enough, gold has gone mad in the past year, up roughly 40% in USD.

Harmony reckons it can exceed full-year production guidance, which would then imply more than 1,500,000 ounces for the year. The total last year was 1,561,815 ounces, so it still looks unlikely that production will grow year-on-year.

Despite hoping to beat guidance on production, they don’t expect to do the same on AISC. Guidance of between R1,020,000/kg and R1,100,000/kg is still where they expect to end up. Anything inside that range is much higher than R901,550/kg in the previous financial year.

Thank goodness for the gold price, then.


A very unpleasant day for Merafe shareholders (JSE: MRF)

There’s nothing quite like a 20% drop to kick off a week

In and amongst all the market chaos thanks to the US, Merafe released some concerning news of its own. Doing this on a risk-off day was basically a guaranteed way to obliterate the share price. Sure enough, the share price closed an ugly 20% lower for the day.

The reason? The state of play in the global ferrochrome market and what it means for the ferrochrome smelting business that is operated as a joint venture with Glencore. They expect the prolonged downturn to continue in the near to medium term, so unless they can figure out a solution, they expect to see a reduction in ferrochrome production from May 2025 due to a potential suspension of certain furnaces.

This is obviously very bad news and a reminder why Merafe trades at such a low price/earnings multiple.


Pepkor’s credit and fintech strategy is a powerful growth flywheel (JSE: PPH)

And the back-to-school January story is very promising

Pepkor released a trading update for the three months to December 2024 and the market liked it, with the share price closing 3.4% higher. Context to this move is important, as Pepkor has now dislocated from the suffering of its peers in the past month:

It’s still red of course, but reading Pepkor’s update against what we saw from the likes of Truworths is quite something. It’s clear that one group has a coherent strategy and the other has a lucky UK business.

So, what is that strategy at Pepkor? Simply, they are focused on the fintech segment as a major source of not just revenue growth, but also margin improvement. Fintech is now bigger than the furniture, appliances and equipment (FAE) segment in terms of total revenue! This is what happens when fintech posted juicy growth of 35% vs. 8.4% in FAE and 9.2% in clothing and general merchandise (CGM). Mind you, there’s nothing wrong with those growth rates in either FAE or CGM!

The disappointment was actually in Avenida, which came as a surprise to me. Like-for-like sales fell by 2.7%. Although total sales there increased 11.3% in constant currency, they were down 9.7% in reported currency. I’m really hoping they get that story back on track. Things seem to have improved in early trade in 2025, at least.

Other interesting nuggets of information include the ongoing strength of PEP and Ackermans, up 12.1% and 9.7% on a like-for-like basis respectively. I must also highlight the Home division in Pepkor Lifestyle, which achieved 15.1% sales growth.

But now we get to the really big story: growth in credit sales of a whopping 30.9%, taking the contribution of credit sales from 13% to 16%. This is a direct result of the “credit interoperability strategy” in the South African business. The Fintech operations are driving this, along with other important business units like Flash and its revenue growth of 19.3%.

The strength continued into January, where group sales jumped by 17.8% for the first three weeks. Aside from an improvement to Avenida as mentioned earlier, they have had a great back-to-school season in PEP and Ackermans as the core businesses. Now they need to keep the momentum going!


Schroder European Real Estate’s gearing is coming down through disposals (JSE: SCD)

The European economic trajectory is murky to say the least

When property funds focus on reducing debt, it’s either because they currently have too much debt or they are worried about what the future holds. With a loan-to-value ratio of 25%, it seems to be the latter at Schroder European Real Estate, as that isn’t an over-geared balance sheet.

With the disposal of the 50% interest in the Metromar Joint Venture (holder of a shopping centre in Spain), they’ve managed to get rid of some debt. There was no equity value in that mall, so the debt (and the asset) was simply transferred to the purchaser. This reduced the loan-to-value from 25% to 21%.

The next reduction will come from the previously announced sale of a grocery asset in Frankfurt, with the deal expected to close in March 2025. The loan-to-value should drop by another 2%.


Super Group has released the circular for the SG Fleet disposal (JSE: SPG)

This transaction has been the only thing propping up the share price

Super Group is having a tough time at the moment. The underlying exposures are enough to give anyone a bad headache, with European car manufacturers and the operational metrics of Transnet as two of the biggest “success” factors in the group. The are more like failure factors at the moment, sadly.

There hasn’t been much for investors to hang their hats on in the past year, aside from the disposal of the SG Fleet business in Australia. You can see the impact on this chart of the deal news breaking at the end of November and full details coming out in early December:

Selling the perceived crown jewel in the business obviously doesn’t do anything to fix the other problems. It simply puts on a band-aid while they figure out what to do elsewhere.

In return for selling its 53.584% interest in SG Fleet, Super Group’s wholly-owned subsidiary is set to receive A$641.4 million, or roughly R7.5 billion. For context, Super Group’s market cap is R9.5 billion! This is exactly why Super Group believes that the rest of its business is being undervalued by the market.

After settling debt and other costs, Super Group intends to declare a special distribution of R16.30 per share before the end of June 2025. The share price is R27.45, so a decent chunk of capital will be coming back to shareholders.

If there is some kind of improvement on either the logistics or automotive side, then they may well be right about the rest of the group being undervalued by the market. Special situation and value investors will be taking a close look here, especially as the anticipated net debt to EBITDA ratio in the group is expected to drop sharply from 2.96x to just 0.77x after the deal.

On a pro-forma basis, the net asset value (NAV) per share is expected to be R38.29 and HEPS from continuing operations would be 229.5 cents. Although Super Group is trading way below its NAV per share, looking at HEPS relative to the NAV explains why that is the case. They simply aren’t generating sufficient profits from the asset base.

If that improves, then you could see serious share price action here after the deal. Personally, I’m too bearish on the traditional automotive manufacturers to see sufficient room for improvement here. It’s certainly a stock that is worth keeping an eye on though!


For some reason, the market really liked the Vodacom update (JSE: VOD)

I wish I could tell you why

Vodacom closed 5.6% higher on a day when equity markets really struggled as investors digested the tariff news. That’s a major shift in momentum, although it’s well worth remembering that this is what the long-term chart looks like:

What has changed here that could’ve gotten the market excited?

Starting with South Africa, total revenue growth for the quarter ended December was 4.7% and service revenue growth was 3.2%. Although lack of load shedding would’ve probably done wonders for margins, that’s still below-inflation growth in revenue. Unless the Competition Tribunal changes its tune about the fibre deal with Maziv (part of Remgro), it’s unclear where a material acceleration in overall revenue will come from. Although there are obviously some faster-growing pockets of the business, my cellphone bill seems to go down each time I renew my contract, not up!

The next largest segment is International, where growth was just 1.9% as reported. On a normalised basis, it was 7.5%. I will remind you once more that normalising for forex movements and just pretending that they will one day stop being an issue is very dangerous. Just ask the likes of MTN and MultiChoice.

This brings me neatly to Egypt, where the forex issue is at its most obvious. Revenue fell by 7.5% on a reported basis, yet was up 54.9% on a normalised basis. That’s obviously a great growth rate on a constant currency basis, but my view on forex risk remains the same: reported numbers are what count.

The combination of deep capital expenditure and exposure to African currencies lead to me sitting this one out. Perhaps one day it will improve. For now, I struggle to build an appealing bull case here.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • After putting a large hedge in place last week, Datatec (JSE: DTC) founder and CEO Jens Montanana features in this section once more. This time, he’s bought shares worth R79.6 million!
    • Acting through Titan Fincap Solutions, Christo Wiese has bought exchangeable bonds in Brait (JSE: BIHLEB) worth R1.9 million.
    • Two directors of a major subsidiary of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R475k.
    • Acting through an associate, a director of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) bought shares worth R42k.
  • ArcelorMittal’s (JSE: ACL) losses are slightly worse than they feared in the initial trading statement. Instead of an expected range of R4.06 to R4.41 for the headline loss for the year ended December 2024, they now expect a headline loss of R4.50 to R4.66 per share. Either way, it’s a terrible deterioration from the headline loss of R1.60 per share in the comparable period. You may recall that it was ArcelorMittal that kicked off the January jitters for South Africa with the news of substantial job losses related to the longs business.
  • If you would like to flick through an up-to-date presentation on the Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) opportunity, you’ll find it here.
  • Having spent what I’m sure was a lot of money fighting the JSE in court, Trustco (JSE: TTO) has now run out of courts to complain to. Trustco’s application for leave to appeal the Supreme Court of Appeal’s judgement to the Constitutional Court was refused by the most important court in the land based on a lack of any reasonable prospects of success. This issue has therefore been brought to a close and all the egg has settled on Trustco’s face. It’s rather ironic to see Trustco renew its cautionary announcement on the same day regarding potential delistings from all markets that it is currently listed on. They have now engaged an independent expert in this regard. They are also still trying to get their financials for the year ended August 2024 finalised.
  • Conduit Capital (JSE: CND) has finalised the disposal of its shares and claims in estate agency group Century 21 for R7.2 million. It’s a rare example of good news for this battered and broken group.

GHOST STORIES #55: Sustainability, the Spar way

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

Kevin O’Brien is incredibly passionate about his work as the Group Sustainability Executive at Spar. Having stuck with the group through tumultuous recent times, Kevin is focused on Spar’s role as a corporate citizen in South Africa and the European markets in which it operates.

There’s an important difference between governing sustainably and the governance of sustainability. ESG far too often becomes a tick-box exercise rather than a way to embed better business practices throughout a group.

In this discussion, the first such example of a Ghost Stories podcast that puts the spotlight on corporate reports beyond just the earnings announcement, Kevin shares his journey with us and his approach to sustainability. You’ll find Spar’s sustainability report at this link for further reading.

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. This is going to be super interesting because this is the first time on Ghost Stories that we are bringing you, I suppose, a spotlight on the rest of the reporting suite that gets put out by listed companies.

We all focus on the earnings announcement on SENS and then the analyst presentation that goes out. But there is so much more inside this broader concept of integrated reporting, and we’re going to start exploring some of that on Ghost Stories, which I’m really looking forward to.

We’re actually going to kick off with something on sustainability reporting. Now, before you start groaning about ESG and all of that “abused” nonsense that I write about often in Ghost Bites, and you’ll know my feelings about it if you do follow my writing – you’re in safe hands today, because our guest today is passionate about this space for the right reasons and for the reasons that go very far beyond how investment bankers will use ESG to just “help capital flow” in convenient directions, shall we say. We are instead talking about genuine, sustainable business practices and the real-world challenges of actually doing this.

Our guest today is Kevin O’Brien. He is the Group Sustainability Executive at Spar. Speaking of firsts, Kevin, you told me that this is your first podcast, which is very exciting. I’m very happy to help you get that ticked off your list. This is a man who once had an audience with the Dalai Lama at Cambridge University. I genuinely cannot think of an event that defines my varsity experience at Wits all those years ago, but even if I could think of something I did at Wits that was pretty cool, Kevin, I don’t think I’m going to match an audience with the Dalai Lama.

Thank you for being here. Welcome to the show. Maybe you can share some of that Cambridge experience, actually. But most of all, you’ll be able to share all these real-world insights into sustainability.

Kevin O’Brien: Good afternoon, Mr. Ghost, and thank you so much for an opportunity to talk about something I’m passionate about, but also maybe just some practical things that we’ve done to hopefully back up that passion in a corporate sense. So, yeah, the story of the Dalai Lama is something really special to me. It’s one of those defining moments, I think, as you develop your own thinking. That development comes at different stages. It could come early in life or could come later in life. I was very fortunate when I was doing my Master’s degree at Cambridge a few years ago that we had an audience with the Dalai Lama in St John’s College Chapel, a 1300s building that is quite something. And he said – he said a number of things – but the thing that stood out mostly for me was when he said: you people at business schools learn the art of negotiation. You learn how to prepare for it, do your research, make sure your arguments are all in place, know what your plan A, your plan B and your plan C said. But listen to you. They’re all your plans. Where’s the negotiation in that?

I think for me the defining part of that is really about – we so often go into discussions, when you’re thinking about collaboration, we go into discussions with a preconceived idea of what we want out of it as opposed to going into discussions with the thought of wanting to develop an answer in a collaborative way and therefore embrace the richness of what whoever is involved in is able to bring to it. It’s something I’ve tried to follow in my thinking and also in my doing, but it’s not easy because we are wired to get what we want out of things. And I guess sustainability is a challenge to that. But yeah, thank you. It was a wonderful experience.

The Finance Ghost: I don’t know how many times in history someone has referenced the Dalai Lama and then had a response that references Mike Tyson, but here we are, it’s a fun day. And of course he said: “everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face” right? The Dalai Lama approach is make sure everyone agrees to the plan before someone klaps you in the face. That’s the combined lesson here! I think it’s a good one. Probably a lot of truth in both of those quotes.

Kevin, you’ve been at Spar in a pretty difficult time. You’ve been there for a long time and recently Spar has had a tough run, particularly at board level. There’s been major management changes. I think Mike Tyson may be particularly apt here because Spar did get hit in the face, bluntly, that’s what happened essentially. I think it’s a lot easier – when things start to get really messy at a corporate – in some respects, it’s easier to jump ship, right? As opposed to actually looking and saying, well, I want to see this through. Now, there’s obviously a reason why you stayed and decided to see this through. There’s obviously something that’s keeping you at Spar that makes you excited about the future.

What made you stay? Was it the sustainability mindset of wanting to do this long-term thing, or was it something else?

Kevin O’Brien: Yeah. So it’s been a challenging time for Spar and myself in particular. Over the past few years, being a longtime member of the Spar family, went through pretty difficult times. Spar is a very unique business with quite a unique culture given the mix of a corporate business and independent retail. That mix is very, very exciting. I think to be philosophical about this, the difficulties experienced by Spar I think needed to be experienced by the company, so that Spar could take the next step in its growth as a relevant business in the 21st century. The voluntary trading model in particular needed to evolve to unlock I think the uniqueness of the business model that is Spar, so that it did remain relevant.

Change like this doesn’t come without pain and without challenges. We’re through that now hopefully and the future is looking bright for a business that – really important for me and maybe to answer your question – for a business that’s reconnecting with its DNA, because I believe the DNA of Spar is where its success was born. I think over time, we may well have strayed from that and I think the opportunity to reconnect with that is an opportunity to leverage a business which is based in something very strong and the reconnection will ensure its strength going forward.

The Finance Ghost: And do you think that DNA comes top-down, or do you think it comes bottoms-up? Because for example, I do my grocery shopping at Spar because I have a really good local Spar and a good Spar is very hard to beat, in my opinion at least. I think a good Spar that’s run by a passionate franchisee, they understand the local community in which they operate. That’s what makes Spar interesting, right? It’s franchise run. There are a lot of differences between Spars, it’s definitely not just cut and paste with exactly the same experience at each one. A good Spar is great, genuinely great. So do you think that DNA comes top-down as I say, or do you think it comes from these franchisees and it kind of filters up into the group? Or do you think it should perhaps?

Kevin O’Brien: A very good question. I believe that where we originated, it came from bottom-up. We were right there 60-odd years ago when this voluntary trading model in South Africa was imported from the Netherlands, with those individual retailers, and what held them together was the objective of being able to become a force against the bigger retailers. I think that’s where the DNA grew. And ironically, that’s where it needs to come from again right now. I think that’s been a bit diluted as a result of becoming a corporate without adapting a model that would be a mixture of the two. I think what I’m really saying to you is that the bottom-up, without a doubt, because that’s where the heart of Spar lies, is independent retail. But the corporate is reality for us and how you manage that and moving into an environment whereby compliance issues, around governance issues, around potential reputational issues, there needs to be some type of a consistency which needs to enter this model.

That’s the change I believe that we need to start making to combine this again, because I think that’s what’s been lost as it’s grown to be bigger and bigger. As it gets bigger, it becomes more difficult. So bottoms-up, because that’s where the spirit lies, but the reality of being a corporate needs to find its way into this as well. And that’s the challenge that I’m very excited about because I think it can put us into a very relevant model, particularly in South Africa, where small business is very relevant to the future from an economic growth point of view.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. It’s not easy to manage Spar. Some of your competitors have gone away from the franchise route to try and beat that consistency into their offering, bluntly. And it’s not an easy thing. So, kudos. Royal Ascot SUPERSPAR, we love you. That’s my local one and it’s very, very good. If that message ever gets back to whoever’s managing or owns that store, well done to them.

I like the thought of this DNA coming bottoms-up, but also recognising there has to be those corporate processes otherwise the whole thing falls over. It’s not a straightforward model. I think it can be a very powerful one if it goes right. For what it’s worth, I’m actually currently a Spar shareholder, so I’ve backed this recovery period. The share price – I’m an investments guy so you’ll have to forgive me for looking at the valuation – the market certainly dished out a hiding to Spar and created an opportunity to jump back in and believe that underneath all of this, there’s actually something there. And of course, something “being there” directly speaks to this concept of sustainability, right? That there’s something that actually has the power to survive business cycles, changes of management etc.

The role of group sustainability executive, some would be very quick to bucket that, as you know, as Head of ESG, bluntly. I can imagine that drives you slightly mad and I’m sure it happens to you, but I think from speaking to you before this podcast and getting to know you a bit, I don’t think your approach is like that at all. I think for you it’s very much a case of trying to make sure that sustainable thinking is embedded in the business to the greatest extent possible.

This is not just a form that you’re filling out for the bank when you’re next asking them for funding. And there’s a little section there that talks about, I don’t know, electricity usage or food waste or, you know, whatever might be on that form. Who knows?

So how do you actually focus on getting people to govern sustainably rather than focusing on the governance of sustainability? Because those two things are not at all the same, are they?

Kevin O’Brien: Absolutely right. So maybe to answer the question just by starting there. For me the difference – I mean, the governance of sustainability focuses on oversight, so that includes the work done by dedicated committees within the organisation etc. whereby governing sustainably is broader than that. It involves integrating sustainability principles into every aspect of governance at Spar, from high-level strategic decisions to day-to-day operations. This means that every decision, whether related to supply chain procurement or even customer engagement, is made with sustainability in mind.

ESG is business’ way of monitoring and evaluating business compliance with sustainability reporting frameworks like CSRD, CDP, ISSB and the like. This is almost a tick-box type exercise, maybe a little bit like IFRS compliance in a way. I understand the importance of that, but sustainability for me is about the opportunity for business to create value while addressing the challenges of an uncertain future due to environmental, social and ethical abuse. And I use the word abuse specifically because I think it has been abuse.

Sustainability is where collaboration and collaborative innovation can take place, which will result in value creation for business, for society and actually for the planet. An interesting concept, creation of value for the planet and I guess the sustainability of the resources within the planet, is what that creation is. Traditional business thinking is often about value extraction. New business thinking, which incorporates sustainability thinking, is about value creation. To me, that’s like the new economy, a new economy built out of the creation of value while addressing the bigger issues which face the future of our business, our planet and our societies.

I see that as a sort of a new economy opportunity. I think an example of this is our Spar Rural Hub business which is featured on pages 67 to 69 of our 2024 Sustainability Report. Maybe if I can just spend a little bit of time on that and why I believe it’s a good example of this, is that when we started the rural hub business, we started on the back of funding that we received from the Dutch government. This was match-funding whereby the Dutch government provided an amount of money and then Spar effectively matched that. That match funding model took us down a road which actually concerned me at the start. That road was we were getting funding from an organisation that felt – I’m probably being a little bit controversial here, felt sorry for the plight of farmers in Africa. And I understand that. Whereas we were looking at it on the basis of how do we develop more scaled farmers who have not had access to formal retail in a sustainable way so they can become sustainable businesses themselves. It’s not a handout.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, the “G” in ESG is not supposed to stand for guilt and I think there’s a lot of that style of thinking in these European impact organisations. Honestly, historically it’s easy to understand why, right? The G stands for guilt half the time. It really does, without a doubt.

Kevin O’Brien: And I think, again, a bit controversially, CSI thinking in my opinion is guilt money of the rich for the poor. I honestly believe we need to be moving to thinking around socio-economic development to actually address the issues which the guilt money gets paid out for, thereby not needing to pay it out anymore. The uniqueness of this model I think shows our attempt to try and create a business which was based on premises that were a little bit different. For instance, the business focus is to develop farmers to be able to bring them into formal retail and therefore obviously the integration of those and the inclusion of those farmers into this process.

A couple of unique things we do is with the farmers is obviously we provide a lot of the technical services to the farmers. We also have agreements with the farmers where they supply us with their product. Now what we do which is different to normal things is we guarantee a price to the farmer thereby actually saying, Mr. Farmer, with you we are developing crops that we believe are of sufficient value to warrant going into our Spar Freshline business and that’s the price we would get. Now, what that then does is puts the pressure on us, our pack house facility, to in fact find a market that can give that price.

Here’s the other interesting thing, is that the market currently is not only Spar. Our farmers sell to our competitors, our product goes there. Because to me, if you’re going to develop a farmer on the back of an exclusive arrangement with you and you fail, the farmer fails. That’s not development.

Those are quite key aspects. One of the other key aspects is that the relationship between the technical teams on the ground with the farmers is not just creating financial independence, but actually also independence of thought. That’s a really key aspect because again, financial independence created on the back of somebody who you always rely on is not true independence. This model, through which we believe – and in the last two years, every one of the farmers has made a profit – within small scale farming on two to three hectares, is quite unique. The pack house which we own and we operate, yes, we do fund the losses made in that pack house, but they have become less and less as we’ve become more efficient in the operation.

One last really important part of this business is that the rules that we’ve applied as a food retailer to our other suppliers, big or small, with regard to food safety, have been applied to these farmers. They are all GlobalG.A.P. certified. Our little pack house facility in the Mopani district is GFSI Intermediate certified. These are some key aspects of developing a model which may well be able to be scaled in a way that reflects the new economy that I spoke about, the creation of value within the system and not just value for ourselves. I could go on quite a while with that, but I know we don’t have the time.

The Finance Ghost: No, it’s a passion point which is good and it’s an interesting point because it really reflects a lot of stuff. One thing I’ll say is this concept of the farmers needing to be able to sell to anyone is actually so embedded in Spar’s model because the reality is that your franchisees can actually buy – as I understand the model – they can actually buy from whoever they want. Obviously, buying from Spar head office is the easiest, but all of them procure from elsewhere as well, is my understanding. So you’ve got a scenario here where Spar needs to go and develop suppliers who can then adequately compete. And yes, the pack house is maybe making that so by making sure that the farmers are sustainable and Spar is carrying some losses, but it does have some startup elements to it and most startups do have losses in the beginning as a platform is built out.

I would imagine, and you don’t need to go into detail on it if you don’t want to, that the typical government incentives also apply here. The way this maybe translates into B-BBEE scores and supplier development spending and all of that, there are some very creative ways to actually structure it so that you’re doing sustainable stuff and you’re bringing the cost down for the corporate by using the tools that are there, using the incentives that are there. I’m sure that you guys are doing that as well.

Kevin O’Brien: Without a doubt. I think this is the creative thinking that we need in business to address issues that are really big in our society that we can’t just rely on government to sort out. Because at the end of the day, the sorting out of these issues is to all of our benefit in one way or the other. That’s why collaborative innovation to me is really key in a lot of these areas.

The Finance Ghost: That’s the power of tax, right? That’s the power of regulations. The interesting side of tax is how governments use it to drive outcomes. They incentivise very specific behaviours and B-BBEE is not completely unique in the global context, but it’s kind of unique. It’s not a tax, but in some ways, it almost behaves that way a little bit and then it kind of doesn’t. It’s a very interesting regulatory regime in general. It’s there to drive behaviour and it’s there to drive a specific outcome that government has decided is something that we should do. And it’s silly not to take advantage of these things to the greatest extent possible and then do it in a way that actually creates a better business over time. It sounds like that’s what you’re doing with this whole project, which I think is fantastic.

It talks to that new way of doing business, as you said, which is value creation, not extraction. I think people are just more and more aware of how scarce resources are. How often have you – well, I don’t know if you’ve heard this, but I’ve often heard people reference The Simpsons where you have a look at it and Homer Simpson could fall asleep in his day job at the facility there but he was still managing to support a family, car in the garage and a few kids and everything else. That very old-school American dream. You can’t do that anymore on one salary. It’s just not possible.

People always say, oh, why is this? The cost of living and everything’s so expensive and inflation and property – it’s because there are a lot of humans trying to be in similar places at the same time, competing for scarce resources. That’s certainly my view on it. If you don’t recognise how scarce these resources are, this problem only gets worse. It definitely doesn’t get better over time. There are way more people now than there were 50 years ago. That’s what’s driving this thinking.

Kevin O’Brien: Correct. Absolutely right.

The Finance Ghost: Do you think listed companies take it seriously enough? You pointed out to me when we started chatting before the podcast that there are only two board committees that are a statutory requirement. When you mentioned that to me, it obviously jogged my memory a bit about when I studied the Companies Act, which was now some years ago! That’s the Social and Ethics Committee and the Audit Committee – and the Audit Committee, I think that gets a lot of attention and you would never dream of having someone in charge of that who isn’t necessarily very experienced in that space. But does the Social and Ethics Committee actually get the same level of attention? Does it carry the same weight at board level? Do you think that it should?

Kevin O’Brien: It’s quite a passion of mine. I think often, like you said, we all studied a while ago, and sometimes the nuances and the little things as time evolves we don’t go back to first base in a way to just try and establish where we came from. Mervyn King has commented on the belief of many people, and this belief is that shareholders own the company. They don’t own the company, they own shares in the company. As you know, a company is a juristic person like you and I. If shareholders own the company, it would be tantamount to slavery. A company cannot think for itself. The board has a duty of care to ensure that the company delivers on its purpose, whatever their purpose might be.

You can draw similarity between the duty of care that effectively that you and I would have, if we had to, I suppose, sign a power of attorney over a loved one who was incapacitated, not able to make decisions for themselves. That’s the type of duty of care that the board needs to exercise and needs to exercise it in such a way that the company acts in the best interest of all its stakeholders, which would be inclusive of the environment and society.

Companies and boards should take this seriously. And as you mentioned, the board members who are members of the Social and Ethics Committee of companies need to take the accountability of the company’s performance in sustainability areas as importantly as they do the company’s financial performance. I don’t necessarily believe that companies and boards or even shareholders take this as seriously as they do the financial performance of the company. They however should, because the board, Audit Committee, as you said, and the Social and Ethics Committee are the only three statutory committees in a company. These committees should, in my opinion, all have equal weight.

As a sustainability professional – and this is aligned to what you’ve said – I don’t think the board would appoint me as a head of an Audit Committee as I’m not a CA(SA). I don’t have that background. Likewise, a board member who’s not a professional in issues relating to social and ethical matters or sustainability matters shouldn’t chair the Social and Ethics Committee. That’s my opinion, because then you aren’t taking these as seriously as they should be. They are statutory committees.

The Finance Ghost: I would imagine there’s quite a skills gap. I am a CA(SA) and I wouldn’t appoint me to an Audit Committee because I’ve never audited anything in my life. I did my articles in banking. I’m the last person you should appoint to an Audit Committee because I’ll probably be focused on all the wrong stuff. I’m guessing there is quite a skills gap out there in terms of professionals for this. I guess the other part of that problem is that especially for smaller listed companies who, let’s call a spade a spade, have been dealing with a really tough economic situation in South Africa for a decade now or more. They are watching where they spend every cent and to invest in a sustainability professional is a number. Yes, they might see the long-term benefit in their business, but when you are dealing with a really tough economic situation and we’ve had some bad times in South Africa, you’ve got to ask yourself: do you spend the money on that sustainability professional and hope that it helps you 10 years from now or do you go and spend the money on a new sales exec? You can see where I’m going with this – it becomes that short-term survival thinking versus long-term sustainability. I guess that has had an impact?

Kevin O’Brien: Without a doubt. I think that what we find from a sustainability thinking point of view is that and what we need to be careful of, and I’ve almost got to now stand on my own toes here, is that sustainability thinking needs to be embedded into a business’ way of doing business differently. It becomes part of what you do as opposed to being something that is separate. I think that from a sustainability point of view, the skill around sustainability needs to be something that is understood by all senior people. It becomes just a way of going about things as opposed to seen as something separate.

Within my company here, it’s taken a while where if you want to say, well, how are we going to reduce our carbon emissions, go and speak to Kevin. I don’t run the operations. I’m not a logistics person. Accountability for these things need to be held in organisations where the operations are taking place. Sustainability people, in my opinion almost should become thought leaders in the sense that they provide the thinking and then facilitate the operationalisation, if there’s such a word, of that thinking within the business. Therefore, the business goes about things in a different way. That’s the ideal. I hear what you’re saying about obviously not being able to have the resources to employ a particular professional in that sense and I do understand it, which is why I think that a lot of what we as big business can do for smaller SMEs and smaller businesses is to provide some leadership and training within smaller SMEs like we are doing say with our farmers around developing and growing crops. How are we able to try and assist? If we truly do buy into this idea that sustainability is important for the future, how are we able to address this in a broader way given the constraints?

Skills are critically important and business skills change all the time. As you say, you’re a CA(SA), but doesn’t mean you say you can run the Audit Committee and that’s right. I might be a sustainability professional, but I might not be the right person to run a Social and Ethics Committee. They are skills which need to be developed, again if we take all of this seriously.

The Finance Ghost: A piece of that skill set almost needs to be sitting in all of the execs, right? The people running supply chain don’t need to know anything about financial reporting standards. They really don’t. They don’t need to know anything about IFRS. That is really the CFO’s role. I think what I’m hearing from you is if you’re going to operationalise this thing – it can’t be an easy job because you run the risk of being “oh, what does Kevin do up there in his ivory tower? We’re doing it all for him. We’re managing the emissions, he just does an interview and puts it in a report.” The more you push down and the more you do your job, the less it looks like you’re doing your job. It’s not easy. I don’t envy you.

Kevin O’Brien: No. And you touch on a really important point there. As the environment around reporting becomes more mandatory, particularly sustainability reporting, one of the challenges for a sustainability professional, I think, is that you don’t just become a gatherer of data and reporting. You need to be able to use that information to innovate because it’s in the innovation that you can start addressing the issues around sustainability and the challenges of sustainable thinking. So that’s key, is that you don’t end up becoming a reporting person and therefore tick a box. You actually continually drive change within a business to achieve the objectives of sustainable thinking.

The Finance Ghost: I’ll tell you what, let’s talk about reporting. Because of course that’s the basis really of the podcast, is we get to talk about some of the reporting outside of financial stuff. But I’m very happy to have spent this 30 minutes or so with you just setting the scene because we really needed to understand that sustainability is not just the report, it’s the other way around. The report is sustainability. The report is trying to say, hey, what have we been doing? If you’re not doing anything, the report doesn’t fix that problem. You can’t just throw some pretty graphics on a page and some feel good pictures and some “guilt” stuff and be like, hey, look, sustainability! You’ve really got to bake it in. I would like to spend a few minutes definitely on the report and then we can just send people to go and check it out, those who are interested.

It’s been a big shift for you, your 2024 sustainability report, as I understand it, because the previous year was called an ESG report. I’m sure you’re happy to have that behind you. I think let’s just talk – I’ll actually just open the floor to you for a few minutes to maybe just walk us through what makes this report interesting and special and different. Why should someone go and read it? What is it about this report that captures everything we’ve talked about?

Kevin O’Brien: Thanks very much for that. I think as I mentioned earlier, ESG is really a compliance matter. I think last year, we’d come through as an organization with this whole ESG thinking and we jumped onto it, including me. But I very soon realised that it is quite a compliance driven issue. Sustainability, as I’ve mentioned, is more about creating value while addressing the big issues posed by climate change and societal dysfunction and poor ethics. So again, I want to just reference Mervyn King where he considers that this thing between ESG and sustainability is a tussle between conformance and performance.

Now for me, sustainability is about performance. So, fundamental to sustainability thinking is collaboration and the big issues that challenge the world, many of which are non-competitive actually, should be tackled collaboratively to ensure greater impact. I think that goes without saying.

Business needs to understand and identify the value creation opportunities in this collaboration to address issues like climate change and societal inequalities. It’s for that reason that we chose collaboration as a theme for our 2024 sustainability report. It’s the importance of you can have the measurements, you can have the reporting, but the reality is to actually achieve what you say you want to achieve. You want to achieve net zero. If you want to make an impact around issues with regard to poverty, you want to deal with issues with regard to gender based violence, which is part of the work that we also do, you are not big enough, you can’t be arrogant to think that as a brand you’re big enough to be able to make that difference. You actually need to work together because everything’s part of a system and this involves a system change. And you can’t change the system on your own because if you’re in the system as yourself, all you want to do going back to the extraction and creation of value, is you extract value out of that part of the system that you play. You don’t create value to improve the system.

This collaboration theme for me is really important and what we tried to do in the report was, obviously going down the CSRD route, that’s clear from the report, but we’re not in a position to be able to provide a fully-fledged CSRD…

The Finance Ghost: …for those who maybe don’t know what that is, because I think we have to assume not everyone listening is actually au fait with that term. What does that stand for?

Kevin O’Brien: CSRD is really a European reporting standard for sustainability. One of the questions would be why did we choose CSRD since we’re a South African company? Is it simply because at the end of the day we’ve got two international subsidiaries that would need to comply with CSRD? Again, I think that the CSRD was really more about – the process of that reporting platform is about double materiality. That’s a really important issue for me anyway, that I drove to try and ensure that we followed, because it measures our impact on the environment and on society and the financial impact and similarly the environment and society’s impact on us.

Also, the data points within that reporting framework are data points which are very broad. If we in South Africa ended up having a mandatory reporting framework which was not CSRD, it was our own, the chances are pretty good that the data points would be similar. So one of the challenges we have this year is to actually find a system we are able to manage all of this data within and thereby draw reports, depending on which report we actually want. Those were some of the reasons why we chose to early adopt the thinking around the European framework.

It was incredibly interesting because the start of that is a materiality assessment. What we had to do was we surveyed and made contact with a wide variety of our stakeholders, from suppliers to our retailers to the community to government to the shareholders and asked them to answer a survey related to their opinion of what issues impacted Spar the most. A very interesting exercise for a number of reasons. Not an exercise which I would lay 100% belief in, because it was interesting that many of the organisations we approached were quite reticent in answering the survey because nobody’s ever really done this before, but the outcome of it has been very, very interesting.

The material issues which face our organisation now provide us with some focus within which to start addressing these issues and obviously identifying the risks and opportunities related to addressing these issues. This process, through the CSRD, I think was very powerful for us as a business to once again, I think, provide another reason why sustainability is critical to be part of the business going forward. I think a lot of evidence for this was provided in this assessment that we did.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that’s fantastic. And that’s why these reports are interesting, right, even if you are not really an environmental enthusiast or you’re not really someone who would typically go and read this stuff, if you’re just an investor who is looking for long-term positions in companies, then you need to understand how they are addressing these core risks. That is key.

So, Kevin, if we were stuck in a lift together – we would probably be doing the stairs together because you do strike me as a man who takes the stairs – but let’s say we had to do 10 floors and we were in a lift together and you had a minute to tell me why I should read your sustainability report from 2024. Why do you think I should read it? Why would you like people to read it?

Kevin O’Brien: Great. I like this. I believe that the report is a transparent, readable record of what Spar has achieved and what it stands for and what it should be held accountable for by its stakeholders in the area around sustainability and the work that we do there.

In that report, given the board statement on page three of the report, which includes its commitment to being accountable for what is in the report, I’d encourage stakeholders to read the report, interact with the company on the contents of the report, and also encourage stakeholders to consider collaborative opportunities that are contained in the report, thereby creating a sustainable future for business, society and our planet.

The Finance Ghost: Fantastic. Speaking of reaching out and contacting you about this stuff, I’m guessing LinkedIn, those who would like to connect with you, unless you post exotic and controversial things on X, in which case you might be on there like I am, but I’m guessing you’re on LinkedIn. Would that be your preferred place?

Kevin O’Brien: I am.

The Finance Ghost: There we go. Look for Kevin O’Brien on LinkedIn.

Kevin O’Brien: Great. And I think like you. I must stay off X as well, or I might find myself maybe not being ever allowed in certain places.

The Finance Ghost: Look, X is my jam. But yeah, I’m not, I’m not in corporate. I do get to say what I want, which is kind of helpful!

Kevin, thank you so much for your time today and for just lifting the lid on the kind of sustainability thinking that is needed in corporates and also just how that filters through into the report. I’ll include a link to the report in the transcript and in the show notes and I encourage listeners to go have a look. You don’t need to read the thing cover to cover and put hours aside. Just go flick through it, find something that piques your interest. Go and read it in a bit more detail. Go and check out the Spar rural hub. You’ll learn something, something will stick and it’ll help you the next time you look at one of these reports or when you read a risk that a company is facing somewhere.

You can never waste your time by reading. I think that’s part of what we really want to get across here is just go and open your mind with stuff you maybe haven’t read before. I think it’s a worthwhile exercise.

Kevin, thank you so much. Good luck for the start of 2025. I’m sure it’ll be a busy year for you guys. As I disclosed earlier, I am a shareholder. So go and create some shareholder value, asseblief! Otherwise, all the best and thank you for doing this.

Kevin O’Brien: Well, thank you so much as well, Mr. Ghost. I’ve really appreciated the opportunity to chat and really enjoyed it, so thank you.

The Finance Ghost: Ciao.

GHOST BITES (Capitec | Gemfields | Nampak | Spar | Truworths)

Capitec just keeps on pumping (JSE: CPI)

The latest trading statement shows a solid finish to the financial year

Capitec’s share price has grown a spectacular 50% in the past 12 months. This puts it head and shoulders above the competition once more, with Nedbank as the next best at 27% and then Absa and FirstRand at around the 14% mark. Standard Bank is the laggard at 8%.

Of course, this is simply a continuation of the trend seen in the past 5 years, with Capitec up 120% and Nedbank next up at 40%. Capitec’s growth story in a tough environment in which it was mainly just winning market share was already impressive. If you now bake in some expectations for growth in the banking sector as a whole (and for Capitec to keep taking market share in that growing market), things just get better.

The interim results for the six months to August reflected HEPS growth of 36%, so it was unlikely that the full-year results would be a disappointment with that kind of start. Indeed, although things slowed down in the second half, HEPS growth for the full year of between 28% and 32% is impressive.

We will need to wait for results on 23 April to get the full picture, with Capitec noting that strong growth was achieved in areas like transaction and commission income, including value-added services and Capitec Connect. Blue Label Telecoms bulls always get excited when they see positive references to Capitec Connect, as Blue Label sits further up that value chain!

Finally, Capitec also notes that credit loss ratios have improved into the new financial year. This reflects the improved economic sentiment in South Africa. You can be sure that the latest cut to interest rates also won’t be doing that any harm!

Capitec’s share price is down 5% thus far in 2025 as part of a broader correction on the JSE. I doubt it will be long before it starts heading back up again.


For the second year running, auction revenues fell sharply at Gemfields (JSE: GML)

This is why the share price is so far off the pandemic peaks

There was a time in 2023 when Gemfields traded at around R4.25 a share. That sure feels like a long time ago, with the share price now down at R1.29 after dropping 56% in the past 12 months.

To understand the reason for this trajectory, a quick look at auction revenues will do the trick. In 2023, auction revenues were down 23% from 2022, coming in at $241.3 million. The latest announcement from Gemfields reveals auction revenues of $196 million for 2024, so that’s a drop of 18.8% from 2023. If you work out the move from 2022 to 2024, you’ll find a decrease over two years of 37.5%!

Now factor in inflationary increases in mining costs, the civil unrest in Mozambique and the decision by the Zambian government to reintroduce an export duty of 15% and you can clearly justify the drop. In fact, if there isn’t a timeous solution to this Zambian export duty, things can get a lot worse. Gemfields has suspended emerald exports from Zambia and although they are confident that the export duty will be revoked and an auction could go ahead in the first quarter of 2025, this doesn’t solve the other major issue: a large competitor flooding the market with emeralds.

There’s one other thing you need to factor into the share price trajectory. The issues in Zambia and to a lesser extent Mozambique couldn’t have come at a worse time, as Gemfields is busy with a huge capital expenditure programme. This has put Gemfields into a net debt position of $80.5 million (before auction receivables of $33.9 million). At the end of 2023, they were in a net cash position of $11.2 million calculated on the same basis. That’s a huge swing from green to red.

It feels like Gemfields has become the poster child for the risks of mining, especially in Africa. When a business model relies on vast capex and a constructive relationship with governments, there’s risk everywhere you look.


Cash has flowed for Nampak’s Nigerian disposal (JSE: NPK)

This is another critical milestone in the turnaround

When large corporate deals are announced, particularly where regulatory approvals are involved, the market tends to put a discount on the expected benefit. This is justified by uncertainty, as deals can dish up nasty surprises around regulatory approvals and major delays. This is why the news of cash flowing from the disposal of Nampak’s Bevcan Nigeria business sent the share price 6.4% higher. There’s a difference in value between expected cash and actual cash.

The deal was first announced at the end of June 2024, so you can see how long these things take. Nampak has now received $58.2 million of the expected final purchase price of $68.2 million, with the balance of $10 million due to be received by 7 February. There might be a change to that number based on the final working capital reconciliation.

Together with much progress made elsewhere in the Nampak turnaround, this is why the share price is up a spectacular 143% in the past 12 months!


Spar has paid R2.67 billion for someone to drag the business in Poland away (JSE: SPP)

This deal is definitely a retail hall-of-famer for global disasters

There’s a fresh management team in place at Spar and they will be only too happy to see the back of Spar Poland, not least of all because blame for the deal will always lie with their predecessors. It truly was a disaster, with a rare situation where Spar literally had to pay a buyer to get them out of this mess!

Due to the costs of closing a business, it’s possible for something to be worth less than zero. In an effort to avoid legal battles and the reputational catastrophe that would come with letting Spar Poland collapse, the group instead recapitalised Spar Poland to the tune of R2.67 billion before handing over the shares.

For context, Spar’s current market cap is R27 billion. They didn’t exactly bet the farm on Poland, but it’s still been a terribly painful outcome at a time when they’ve been facing major problems elsewhere as well, not least of all in the South African business thanks to an equally disastrous SAP implementation.


A very poor showing at Truworths Africa (JSE: TRU)

The UK business is the only reason that the group revenue number is in the green

January was all about pressure on share prices in the local retail sector. Truworths capped off that month with arguably the worst of the local updates, with the group numbers saved (to a small extent) by the business in the UK.

Group sales for the 26 weeks to 29 December 2024 were up 2.4%. Digging deeper shows the real story, with Truworths Africa down 1.1% and Office UK up 11.3% in GBP or 9.9% in ZAR.

Sadly for Truworths, the Truworths Africa segment is two-thirds of group revenue, so we have to start there. Of all the negative surprises, a 1.6% drop in cash sales is right up there as the most concerning, particularly when viewed against a competitor like Mr Price. At least online sales increased by 38%, although that is nowhere near enough to make up for the pain in in-store sales. They even saw a decrease in the number of active account holders, so Truworths is literally losing customers!

Office UK is clearly the only good news story in the group, carrying on from where it left off in the prior period when growth was also excellent. Online sales were up 7%, so we have an unusual situation where in-store sales growth was actually ahead of online growth.

You may find it interesting that online sales contributed 45.2% of sales in the UK business vs. just 5.8% of Truworths Africa.

Things don’t get any better when we look at profitability. In fact, they get worse! With disappointing sales and an expected decline in gross profit margin in Truworths Africa, the group result in an expected decrease in HEPS of between 4% and 8%.

The Truworths share price is now back to where it was in June last year and there’s little to suggest that the pressure won’t continue.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Founder and CEO of Datatec (JSE: DTC), Jens Montanana, has entered into a hedge over R120 million worth of shares. Talk about a first world problem! The put strike price is R49.99 and the call strike price is R73.50, with expiry in August 2027. The current price is R49.48 so this is all about downside protection from this level.
    • A non-executive director of Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) has sold shares worth R1.05 million.
    • An entity associated with Hosken Consolidation Investments (JSE: HCI) CEO Johnny Copelyn has bought shares worth R692k.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R62k.
  • In the latest quarterly update, Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) has confirmed the expected timeline of concluding the Definitive Feasibility Study for the Okiep Copper Project by February 2025 and Prieska Copper Zinc Mine by March 2025. They talk about 2025 being the year in which they will transition from being “explorers” to “mine developers” – and that will mean a lot of work on project funding. The company ate up A$6.8 million in cash in the quarter and had A$6.3 million left as at the end of December 2024.
  • Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) has signed off on the most recent quarter. They submitted their mining right application back in September 2023 and they expect a decision by the DMRE by the second quarter of 2025, so work in the meantime has been about completing upgrades to the resource estimate. Due to expected low cash costs, they expect a post-tax IRR from the project of 28% and capital payback of 3.5 years from first concentrate production. They had A$3.65 million in cash, which should see them through a few quarters of moving the project forwards through funding and offtake discussions. The PGM market is extremely depressed at the moment, so they will need to be as creative as possible with funding solutions.
  • MC Mining (JSE: MCZ) released a quarterly report for the three months to December. Run-of-mine coal production at Uitkomst was 26% lower year-on-year. Combined with an shift in sales from high grade to lower grade coal and the general pressure on coal prices, it wasn’t a happy quarter at all. Cash fell from $10.8 million to $4 million over just three months. With the IDC scratching at the door for repayment of a loan, it all comes down to the proposed transaction with Kinetic Development Group. The Competition Commission has at least given the green light for that deal.
  • Sygnia (JSE: SYG) is cleaning up the shareholder register and saving some associated costs through an odd-lots offer. This means buying back shares held by anyone who holds fewer than 100 shares. At the current price, that’s anyone with a holding of roughly R2,200 or less. This will remove over 50% of shareholders in the company, while impacting just 0.035% of shares in issue! The pricing will be the 30 day volume-weighted average price calculated based on 7th March. It’s unlikely that there will be a worthwhile arbitrage opportunity based on the value of these odd-lots.
  • In the hope of something miraculous, Vodacom (JSE: VOD) and Remgro (JSE: REM) have once again extended the longstop date on the fibre deal, this time out to 14 February 2025. Nothing would I say “I love you” to shareholders quite like some progress here, so perhaps some of that Valentine’s Day energy will rub off.
  • AYO Technology (JSE: AYO) expects to release its results for the year ended August 2024 by 14 February 2025, so there’s another Valentine’s Day gift in the waiting. They are very late of course, with blame being laid at the door of the resignation of the company auditors in October 2024 and the appointment of a new CFO in December 2024.
  • In case you are following highly illiquid stock Oando (JSE: OAO), be aware that the company released its financials for the three months to December 2024. HEPS was break-even for the quarter. This closes off a full financial year in which Oando grew revenue by 45% (as reported in Nigerian Naira) and posted profit after tax of N65.5 billion.
  • Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) has only just gotten around to releasing a trading statement for the six months to September. They expect HEPS to be between -1.12 cents and a profit of 0.86 cents. They also expected to release results on the same day, except that didn’t happen.

Netflix: the Originals gamble

2025 is set to be a big year for Netflix Originals, with viral hits like Wednesday, Squid Game and Stranger Things coming back with new seasons. But how did a streaming business decide that creating content was a better idea than licensing it in the first place – and just how expensive was that gamble?

Somewhere at the start of 2024, I heard a rumour that one of my favourite novels, Gabriel García Márquez’ One Hundred Years of Solitude, was being made into a TV series. The possibility both frightened and excited me: after all, García Márquez’ magnum opus (considered by many to be Columbia’s national poem) was deemed to be unfilmable. The author himself admitted to writing it that way on purpose, in order to prove that the written word had a wider scope than the cinema. With that, the Nobel-prize-winning author threw down the proverbial gauntlet, and in the 58 years since the novel was first published, none dared take on the challenge. 

Except Netflix, of course. 

I’ll admit that some of my fears around this project were relieved when I heard that it would be a Netflix Original, but I was still nervous. While Netflix doesn’t have quite the same reputation for content flops as competitor Disney does (look upon those live-actions and despair), they do have their fair share of lemons. I put my hope in the power of a juicy Netflix production budget and waited to see what would emerge.

Worth the wait

The first season of One Hundred Years of Solitude debuted in December 2024. At this point I have watched four episodes, and reader, I have not been disappointed. Not only has the series stuck to its source content (lovers of the book will recognise many of the narrated passages lifted directly off the page, word by beautiful word), but it managed to capture the weird and often baffling moments of fantasy that García Márquez is famous for weaving into the everyday. I am not alone in my reverie: as I write this article, the first season of One Hundred Years of Solitude has an 85% “Certified Fresh” rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, and an IMDb rating of 8.4 out of 10.

These positive reviews are the dividends of a serious investment. While Netflix has been unwilling to disclose exactly how much it cost to create the series, they have let slip that this is the most expensive series ever made in Latin America (putting Narcos, with its $25-million-per-season budget to shame, then). Determined to stay true to its origins, the series was shot on location in Columbia with an all-Columbian cast. Across the span of six years, the Netflix team built four different sets representing the fictional town of Macondo, populated them with dozens of fully-grown native trees, and contracted 150 communities to make thousands of handmade artifacts. 

If you thought I was nervous about the outcome of this series, imagine being the Netflix executive that signed off on those expense sheets. 

Why bother with originality?

Sure, the big leap into streaming in 2007 was a turning point for Netflix, but I would argue their real power move came in 2013, when they created their first Original series, House of Cards. Some would argue that this idea was just about padding their library with a few in-house productions, but in reality, it was a fundamental shift in how the company operated. 

Until then, Netflix had been entirely dependent on licensing agreements with Hollywood studios, paying massive sums for the rights to stream movies and TV shows, all of which could be pulled from the platform at any time. As these deals became more expensive and unpredictable, Netflix faced a growing problem: how could it secure its future when the content it relied on wasn’t truly its own? The answer was simple – stop depending on others and start making its own content.

And so, with House of Cards, Netflix transformed from a content distributor into a fully fledged entertainment powerhouse!

Instead of relying on third-party studios, Netflix could now guarantee a steady stream of exclusive content, keeping subscribers engaged and reducing the risk of them jumping ship to competitors. This also opened the door to global expansion. Rather than being just an American company licensing Hollywood content, Netflix invested in original productions across different regions and languages, tapping into massive international audiences and proving that great storytelling wasn’t limited to a single market.

Winning Emmys and BAFTAs reinforced the message to the entertainment industry that Netflix was no longer just a streaming service, but a serious creative force. This newfound prestige made the company a magnet for top-tier directors, actors and writers who once only looked to traditional studios. Meanwhile, the move sent shockwaves through the industry, forcing legacy media giants to compete with a tech company that wasn’t playing by their rules. And as history shows, that rarely ends well for the incumbents.

The Netflix effect

Beyond changing how we watch entertainment, Netflix’s investment in Originals has reshaped pop culture itself. From fashion and music to tourism and hobbies, the platform has an uncanny ability to take niche interests and launch them into the global spotlight. This phenomenon, casually referred to as “The Netflix Effect,” is responsible for everything from chess booms to retro revivals.

Take The Queen’s Gambit, for example. When it premiered in 2020, it triggered a full-scale chess renaissance. The series, which follows the rise of fictional chess prodigy Beth Harmon, reignited worldwide interest in the centuries-old game. Almost overnight, sales of chess rule books shot up by 603%, orders for chess boards were up by 87%, and online platforms like Chess.com saw record-breaking surges in new users. But the impact wasn’t just digital. Local chess clubs reported a wave of new members, and tournaments found themselves with a fresh influx of players. The Queen’s Gambit had done something surprising: it made chess cool again.

And it’s not just chess. Stranger Things, arguably Netflix’s first Original series to go viral, became somewhat of a pop culture juggernaut. Set in the 1980s, the show’s nostalgic world-building sparked a resurgence of retro fashion, from scrunchies and mom jeans to band tees and bomber jackets. Kate Bush’s 1985 song Running Up That Hill shot to the top of the charts in 2022 after it was prominently featured in season 4, making her the solo artist with the longest gap between two number-one UK singles and the oldest female artist to achieve a UK number one. The 37-year gap between the single’s release and the time it took to reach number one also set a new world record. Meanwhile, Google searches for “how to play Dungeons and Dragons” (a recurring theme in the series) skyrocketed by 600%, while searches for “Dungeons and Dragons starter sets” jumped by 250%. Even Eggo waffles, which are the obsession of one of the main characters, saw an unexpected jump in popularity, with parent company Kellogg’s noting a 14% year-on-year increase in Eggo consumption since Stranger Things debuted. 

We could argue that Stranger Things is as much a series as it is a nostalgia-powered marketing machine – one that turned an entire decade into a brand and made us all desperate to live in it. When’s the last time you saw another streaming platform get that right?

Money to burn

In the first half of 2023, 62 of the top 100 most-watched titles on Netflix were Originals. And in 2024, Netflix doubled down, pouring the “vast majority” of its hefty $17 billion content budget into Originals, even with a flood of high-profile licensed hits up for grabs.

In order to keep its subscriber numbers climbing, Netflix has to strike the right mix between splashy, big-budget productions and cost-effective licensed content. Here’s a stat to help put that pricing discrepancy into perspective: at one point Netflix was streaming IT: Chapter 1, the box-office hit based on Stephen King’s famous book. Just like Stranger Things, this film is set in the 80s and features an ensemble cast of mostly children and teenagers, with CGI used to bring a variety of monsters to life. IT was made with a budget of $35 million. In 2024, it cost Netflix $30 million to make just one episode of Stranger Things!

Spending that much money per episode might seem outrageous, but in Netflix’s world, it’s the price of staying ahead. The streaming wars are fiercer than ever, with deep-pocketed competitors like Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, and Apple TV+ all fighting for eyeballs. Netflix’s answer? Own the content, own the conversation and own the subscriber.

They don’t just want you to watch One Hundred Years of Solitude; they want it to be the thing you have to talk about. They want you to binge-watch Stranger Things and suddenly find yourself Googling “where to buy a Walkman.” They want to create cultural ripple effects so strong that ultimately, those who don’t subscribe feel like they’re missing out.  

And if the past decade is anything to go by, they’ve gotten very good at doing exactly that.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

GHOST BITES (Glencore | Kore Potash | Sirius Real Estate)

Glencore’s 2024 numbers show why the share price fell sharply over the past 12 months (JSE: GLN)

Production volumes are down and so are key commodity prices

In the search for positives to share about 2024, Glencore kicks off their production report by noting the shareholder support that was achieved for retention of the coal business (genuinely an important thing) and the net overall addition to the mineral reserve base (also important of course). Alas, that’s where the positives largely end.

Glencore delivered production volumes within guidance ranges, but that doesn’t mean there was growth vs. the prior year. They had a number of issues in the first half of the year that were difficult to recovery from, so a valiant effort in the second half got them back within guidance but couldn’t achieve much more than that.

Copper production was down 4% on a like-for-like basis for the year and up 6% in the second half of the year vs. the first half. That momentum will hopefully continue into 2025.

Another metal worth touching on is nickel, where there are huge issues globally in terms of demand vs. supply. Glencore transitioned a major producing asset into care and maintenance in the first quarter of the year, which tells you a lot about the dynamics in that metal.

Steelmaking coal was the highlight, with production up 165% – but of course, that’s not on a like-for-like basis. This includes the acquisition of Elk Valley Resources in July 2024. Australian steelmaking coal production was flat year-on-year.

There are many more metals in the group and you can refer to the production report for all the details. I’ll move on now to commodity pricing, which was a problem in 2024. Copper was down 5%, zinc fell 1% and averages prices on steelmaking coal fell by a nasty 24.6%, just to name a few examples.

With the exception of copper, at least those metals saw a drop in estimated unit costs of production at Glencore, so that’s a partially mitigating factor.

The share price is down 20% over 12 months and a glance at these production metrics and commodity prices can quickly explain why.


Kore Potash remains confident in the Summit Consortium as potential funding partner (JSE: KP2)

Although they are the obvious solution, Kore Potash isn’t compelled to accept a Summit funding package

Kore Potash has released a review of the quarter ended December 2024. The all-important EPC contract for the Kola Project was signed in Brazzaville in November 2024, so the focus is now on putting together the money required for the project.

The fixed price contract is worth $1.93 billion. Much as the fixed price nature of the deal de-risks things for Kore Potash, that’s still a massive number to try raise. Kore Potash certainly has a lot of faith in the Summit Consortium coming through with a funding deal, not least of all because of a 10-year relationship and Summit’s track record in raising equity financing for Kore Potash in the early days of the project.

Interestingly, the memorandum of understanding with Summit envisages raising the funding via a mix of debt and royalty financing. The Republic of Congo would retain a 10% stake in Kola, with Kore Potash as the other 90%. Although such a structure might avoid a dilution in equity percentage ownership, royalty deals obviously give away a portion of the future economics in exchange for funding to get the project off the ground.

The Summit Consortium is expected to have full security over the Kola project as part of the funding package. Importantly though, Kore Potash isn’t obligated to accept a funding proposal from the Summit Consortium and could shop it around if the funding is too expensive or has other issues.

From a timing perspective, Summit is expected to provide a proposal by the end of February 2025. In the meantime, Kore Potash is sitting with $1.34 million in cash to keep things going.

The share price is up a ridiculous 285% in the past year. If they can get a suitable funding package done, that takes another layer of risk out of the story.


Sirius: a good example of how property groups manage their debt (JSE: SRE)

Debt can be raised at property level and/or at group level

Sirius Real Estate always seems to have a deal pipeline and a plan to get those deals done. When they aren’t raising equity capital on the market, they are tapping the bond market for debt. Recently, they raised €350 million through a corporate bond issuance that was five times oversubscribed! It matures in 2032 and is priced at 4%.

Now, the way we use the term “bond” in our day-to-day lives would make you think that this is like getting a loan for a house. A mortgage may be a type of bond, but not all bonds are mortgages. Bonds are simply debt instruments and they can be structured in a zillion different ways. For example, Sirius’ recent bond issuance was an unsecured structure, which means investors in those instruments are relying on the aggregate cash flows across the group rather than the cash from a particular property against which they hold that property as security.

Naturally, investors demand a higher return for unsecured debt, which is why it was priced at 4%. Where it makes sense to do so, it is cheaper for Sirius to raise debt against specific properties on a secured basis. They’ve now given us an example of this, with a 5-year loan at 3.264% as a refinancing of an existing asset in Saarbrücken. It’s only a €13 million bond and thus vastly smaller than the large bond issuance, which already tells you why the unsecured issuance was necessary, but it’s a great example of the different types of funding options available to property funds and how they can use these options to tweak the weighted average debt maturity and related funding cost.

Speaking of those metrics, Sirius’ weighted average debt maturity is 4.2 years (up from 3.5 years as at September 2024) and the average cost of debt is 2.6% (up from 2.1% as at September 2024). As rates have moved higher since much of the debt was raised in the pandemic, the weighted average cost naturally moves higher.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • You may recall seeing a number of large hedge transaction by Discovery (JSE: DSY) directors last year. No doubt linked to those trades and structures, Barry Swartzberg has terminated a security pledge arrangement related to shares worth a whopping R993 million. Not all balance sheets are created equal, that’s for sure!
    • An executive director of Richemont (JSE: CFR) sold shares worth over R33 million. These shares were linked to stock-based awards but the announcement doesn’t indicate whether this was the taxable portion.
    • It’s common in the property market to see directors put in place loan arrangements with the shares pledged as security. It works well because of the strong underlying dividend yield and the liquid nature of most companies in the sector. One such example is a director of Equites Property Fund (JSE: EQU), with a restructured loan that has been reduced slightly to R13.1 million and extended out to 2028.
  • Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) announced that conditions for its B-BBEE transaction have been fulfilled. This allows the New Okiep Mining Company to move into project financing stage, having had its feasibility study signed off by major partners. The next step is a definitive feasibility study (DFS), expected to be completed by the end of February. They are busy with much the same process at the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine, with that DFS expected to be released by the end of March.
  • Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) has experienced a delay in finalising its financials for the six months to September 2024. They now expect to release them by the end of January.
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