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South African M&A Analysis H1 2025

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Global uncertainty and local budget-related wrangles still weigh on confidence and demand in South Africa. Yet, higher commodity prices and market volatility created opportunities. M&A activity by value of SA-listed companies rose 66% in H1 2025 compared with the prior year, and DealMakers recorded 164 deals worth R418,3bn.

Source: DealMakers Online

Excluding failed transactions, the real estate sector led activity (37%), followed by resources (13%), technology (7%), and industrial and manufacturing (7%) – broadly mirroring last year’s trends.

The top 10 deals by value reflected this pattern, with resources and real estate dominating. Highlights included Gold Fields’ acquisition of Gold Road Resources (A$3,7bn|R43,7bn) and Primary Health Properties’ acquisition of Assura (£1,79bn|R43,3bn).

Excluding deals by foreign companies with secondary listings in South Africa, deal value for H1 2025 more than doubled to R228,5bn. SA-domiciled, exchange-listed companies were involved in 31 cross-border transactions during the period, with Africa, Australia and Europe the most active destinations. Once again, real estate deals topped the list, followed by technology.

Despite increased opportunities, many companies remain cautious, holding cash yet to be deployed. Instead, firms have turned to multi-billion rand share buyback programmes and special distributions to reward shareholders.

Source: DealMakers Online

The scale of this shift is striking:

  • In H1 2010, repurchases accounted for 10% of General Corporate Finance (GCF) activity and just 2% of aggregate transaction value.
  • By H1 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, they had risen to 33% of activity and 10% of value.
  • Fast forward to H1 2025, repurchases dominated, representing 50% of GCF transactions and value (R227,5bn). Together with special and capital reduction distributions (R30,4bn), companies returned R258bn to shareholders in the period.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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The deal grabbing the headlines this week is the proposed R7,2 billion acquisition of private schools group Curro by the Jannie Mouton Foundation (JMF). The delisting of the company and its reincorporation as a non-profit organisation would give it the flexibility to reinvest all profits by expanding its bursary programme and building schools in rural and lower-income areas. JMF which already holds a 3.36% stake has offered shareholders an equivalent of R13 per share – a 60% premium to the share price prior to the announcement. The R13 settlement is in the form of cash and a combination of shares in Capitec, and PSG Financial Services. While the deal will certainly redefine private education, public opinion as to the reason for the deal varies, ranging from an act of philanthropy to the need to adjust the current model, away from the shareholder spotlight, in response to the decline in demand for private schooling.

Rex Trueform has acquired a further 21% equity interest in Byte Orbit from majority shareholder A Ramdath for a purchase consideration of R21 million. The price tag will be settled through the issue of 1,69 million new N shares at R12.39 per share. Rex Trueform acquired its initial 30.2% investment in Byte Orbit in December 2024 for R21 million.

Continuing with its strategic repositioning and restructuring programme, Accelerate Property Fund has announced the sale of the Buzz and the Waterford Centre. The properties, located in Fourways in Gauteng, were disposed of to Dorpstraat Capital growth Fund (owned by Dorpstraat Property Investments, Rabie Property Group, Nedbank Property Partners and Alpha Plus) and Property House Group Investments (ultimate holders being the Wimson Trust and the Gray Trust) for an aggregate consideration of R215 million. The disposal yield is 9.5% after taking into account the agreed exit of Pick n Pay as the anchor tenant at the Buzz.

Delta Property Fund is to sell the Parkmore property situated at 142-144 Fourth Street in a category 2 transaction. Afrocentric Intellectual Property will pay R19 million in cash for the property. The sale is part of Delta’s business and portfolio optimisation strategy and proceeds will be used to reduce its debt balance.

Mahube Infrastructure has cautioned its shareholders that it has received a proposal from a third party in relation to proposed acquisition of all the issued ordinary shares in the company, excluding certain shareholders, leading to the delisting of Malhube. Further details will be provided to shareholders in due course.

Metrofile has advised that the company is still in discussions with Main Street 2093, a special purpose company through which the potential transaction will be implemented. While talks remain at an advanced stage, the company says the timeline has been extended due to regulatory engagements.

Shareholders have approved the disposal by Jubilee of the South African Chrome and PGM Operations to One Chrome announced in June for a disposal consideration of US$90 million (c. R1,59 billion).

Mantengu Mining has finalised the disposal of 30% of its shareholding in Blue Ridge Platinum (BRP) to BEE parties – a condition of the deal announced in October 2024 which saw Mantengu acquire BRP from Ridge Mining owned Sibanye-Stillwater and Imbani Platinum SPV (50%-owned by Entrepreneurs Business Group). The 30% stake was disposed of for R1.00 to the BEE consortium, represented by Vitai Resources (20%), the BRP Mine Employee Trust (5%) and the BRP Mine Community Trust (5%).

The scheduled general meeting of Ayo Technology Solution shareholders of 20 August 2025, to vote on the scheme offer by Sekunjalo Investment and delisting of the company, has been postponed a month at the request of the Public Investment Corporation. The institution requires additional time to adequately assess the merits and risks associated with holding shares in a delisted entity. Should shareholders vote in favour of the scheme, Ayo’s listing will terminate on 28 October 2025.

Norwegian development finance institution Norfund and South African fund Infra Impact will, in partnership, invest in Green Create, a waste-to-value group with operations in South Africa and Mauritius. Green Create facilities treat both effluent wastewater as well as agricultural waste, reducing the load on the downstream municipal water treatment infrastructure as well as landfilling and generate biogas that can replace fossil fuels in industrial processes.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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In terms of the revised offer to Assura plc shareholders by Primary Health Properties plc (PHP), a further 292,922,357 new PHP shares listed this week. The revised offer remains open for acceptances until 13h00 on 10 September 2025. As at 27 August 2025, PHP had received acceptances in respect of c.92.02% of the issued share capital of Assura.

Fairvest has successful completed a capital raise of R976,7 million via an accelerated bookbuild. Fairvest will issue 180,872,707 new B shares at a price of 540 cents per share – a 2.28% discount to the 30-day VWAP of 553 cents per share. Initially the company proposed to raise capital of c.R400 million but increased the raise on strong demand. The proceeds will be used for acquisitions, investments and the reduction of debt.

MTN Zakhele Futhi (MTNZF) has disposed of the last tranche of its MTN shares. The 2,476,448 MTN shares were disposed of in the open market over the period 18 to 20 August 2025 raising an aggregate R391 million after costs. The unwind of the MTNZF scheme will now be finalised – following the sale of the last MTN shares held, MTNZF’s NAV is c.R494 million (R4.00 per share).

Grindrod shareholders are set to receive a special dividend of 32.3 cents per share in terms of a cash return of 25% of the consideration received from the divestitures of non-core assets.

With strong cash generation and cash reserves in excess of operational requirements, Italtile will pay shareholders a special dividend of 98 cents per share as announced in the Group’s annual results released this week.

ASP Isotopes’ inward secondary listing on the Main Board of the JSE became effective on 27 August 2025. 91,41 million shares were listed at R217 per share reflecting a market capitalisation of R19,84 billion. In May the Nasdaq-listed company made an offer to Renergen minorities to take the company private, with the deal becoming unconditional during August.

Life Healthcare’s special dividend of 235 cents per share will be paid to shareholders on 22 September 2025.

Suspended Wesizwe Platinum has again pushed out the revised timeline for publication of its Annual Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2024 from 29 August to 30 September citing the status of the audit which is currently undergoing a final review and close out process. The company’s listing was suspended on 3 June 2025.

Following the approval of the scheme by shareholders and the payment of the scheme consideration by Eastern Trading on 25 August, AH-Vest shares were delisted from the JSE on 26 August 2025. Eastern Trading acquired the remaining 4.3% stake in AH-Vest at 55c per share – a significant premium to the share price prior to the announcement of 3c per share.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

South32 will continue with its US$200 million repurchase programme announced in August 2024. The shares will be repurchased over the period 12 September 2025 to 11 September 2026.

On March 6, 2025, Ninety One plc announced that it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to £30 million. The shares will be purchased on the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 48,846 ordinary shares at an average price of 189 pence for an aggregate £92,699.

Investec ltd commenced its share purchase and buy-back programme of up to R2,5 billion (£100 million). Over the period 20 – 26 August 2025, Investec ltd purchased on the LSE, 970,991 Investec plc ordinary share at an average price of £5.4694 per share and 889,606 Investec plc shares on the JSE at an average price of R130.9063 per share. Over the same period Investec ltd repurchased 757,369 of its shares at an average price per share of R131.887. The Investec ltd shares will be cancelled, and the Investec plc shares will be treated as if they were treasury shares in the consolidated annual financial statements of the Investec Group.

Bytes Technology will undertake a share repurchase programme of up to a maximum aggregate consideration of £25 million. The purpose of the programme is to reduce Bytes’ share capital. This week 374,522 shares were repurchased at an average price per share of £3.93 for an aggregate £1,47 million.

Glencore plc’s current share buy-back programme plans to acquire shares of an aggregate value of up to US$1 billion. The shares will be repurchased on the LSE, BATS, Chi-X and Aquis exchanges and is expected to be completed in February 2026. This week 9,3 million shares were repurchased at an average price of £2.94 per share for an aggregate £27,34 million.

In May 2025 Tharisa plc announced it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to US$5 million. Shares have been trading at a significant discount, having been negatively impacted by the global commodity pricing environment, geo-political events and market volatility. Over the period 18 to 21 August 2025, the company repurchased 47,617 shares at an average price of R21.09 on the JSE and 165,105 shares at 89.48 pence per share on the LSE.

In May 2025, British American Tobacco plc extended its share buyback programme by a further £200 million, taking the total amount to be repurchased by 31 December 2025 to £1,1 billion. The extended programme is being funded using the net proceeds of the block trade of shares in ITC to institutional investors. This week the company repurchased a further 358,878 shares at an average price of £42.00 per share for an aggregate £15,3 million.

During the period 18 to 22 August 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 1,305,123 Prosus shares for an aggregate €69,05 million and Naspers, a further 114,711 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R663,71 million.

Three companies issued profit warnings this week: Hulamin, Trellidor and Metrofile.

During the week two companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) and Metrofile.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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Moody’s announced that it intends to secure a majority equity stake in Middle East Rating & Investors Service (MERIS – an affiliate of Moody’s), a domestic credit rating agency in Egypt. The transaction builds on a longstanding relationship between the two companies and is subject to regulatory approvals. Following the transaction, MERIS will continue to operate as an independent affiliate of Moody’s while developing its own rating methodologies, issuing its own credit ratings, and maintaining a separate management team. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Finnfund announced a US$4 million debt investment in Poa Internet Kenya, a Kenyan internet service provider, to expand its network and improve internet accessibility. The investment aims to support Poa Internet in bridging the digital divide by providing affordable broadband internet to underserved communities in Kenya.

Hypeo Ai, a Moroccan startup streamlining influencer marketing through artificial intelligence, has announced an undisclosed investment from Renew Capital. Founded in 2024, Hypeo Ai helps brands and creators across Africa and the Middle East run faster, more efficient influencer campaigns by eliminating the need for manual tracking and fragmented tools. The platform connects brands with both human and AI-powered creators in under 15 minutes, offering an end-to-end campaign workflow that includes smart matching, pricing insights, and real-time performance tracking.

Norfund announced that it had taken a strategic minority equity investment in Kinetic Holdings Limited (popularly known as Kensta Group in East Africa), an East African distribution and manufacturing business. Kensta has been in existence for over 60 years and is dedicated to the supply of raw materials to the printing & packaging industry and the manufacturing of everyday essential paper-based products. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Inside Capital Partners announced and undisclosed investment in RDG Africa, a fast-growing leader in solar home systems and clean energy solutions across Southern and Central Africa. Founded in 2018, RDG delivers affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity to underserved households and small businesses through its innovative pay-as-you-go model in Zambia and the DRC.

Ghanaian agritech company, Complete Farmer, has received a US$5 million debt investment from Symbiotics. Complete Farmer operates a platform linking farmers, buyers and agricultural input suppliers.

The Facility for Energy Inclusion (Cygnum Capital) has signed a facility agreement to provide US$5,7 million in senior debt to finance Qair’s renewable energy assets in the Seychelles. This financing will be utilised by Qair for the development, building, operations, and maintenance of a 5.80 MWp Floating PV plant located in the Providence Lagoon on Mahé Island in Seychelles. The Seysun Lagoon FPV is backed by a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement with the Public Utilities Corporation.

The battery investment landscape: a $300bn+ market

The global battery market is undergoing a period of rapid expansion, driven by the increasing demand for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage and industrial electrification. By 2030, the market is expected to reach north of US$300bn,1,2 underscoring the scale of opportunity for investors. However, the competitive landscape is evolving, with technological advancements, supply chain shifts and regulatory developments shaping the sector’s future.

For investors, the following two key questions are pertinent:

  1. Will Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) become the dominant technology, and where are the biggest investment opportunities today?
  2. What role does sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) play in the global battery value chain, and where are the real opportunities for investors?

This article examines the battery market dynamics and explores how investors can position themselves for both short-term gains and long-term strategic advantage.

For decades, Lead-acid batteries dominated the global energy storage market, supplying power for automotive starters, industrial applications and backup power systems. However, the rapid evolution of Li-ion technology has fundamentally reshaped the competitive landscape, displacing Lead-acid as the preferred solution across nearly all major applications. This transition is accelerating, with forecasts suggesting the Lithium-Ion battery market will expand from $54bn today to upwards of $182bn by 2030, commanding a share of 60% of the total battery market by 2030, up from 40% in 2024.3, 4

The market trajectory underscores the pace of this transformation.

• 2018: Lead-acid still accounted for a large portion of global battery capacity, maintaining a stronghold in traditional automotive and industrial sectors. Li-ion was emerging as a dominant force in consumer electronics and early EV adoption.

• 2024: Li-ion accounted for 40%3, 4 of the global battery market, driven by falling production costs, superior energy density, and rising demand from EVs and grid storage solutions. Meanwhile, Lead-acid’s market share continued to decline, sustained primarily by legacy applications in backup power and industrial machinery.

• 2030: Li-ion will capture 60% of the global battery market, leaving Lead-acid with just over 20% market share.3, 4 The combination of cost reductions, superior performance and environmental regulations will further accelerate Lead-acid’s decline.

The accelerating transition from Lead-acid to Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology is being driven by a confluence of technical performance, economic performance (i.e., cost) and regulatory dynamics.

Technically, Li-ion batteries have established a clear advantage, offering superior energy density, faster charging, and significantly longer cycle life. These attributes are increasingly critical as energy storage applications grow more demanding across sectors ranging from electric mobility to grid infrastructure. Lead-acid batteries, by contrast, are struggling to keep pace, constrained by inherent limitations in chemistry and design.

Economically, the divergence is just as stark. Over the past decade, the cost of Li-ion batteries has dropped by nearly 90%,4 fuelled by rapid innovation, economies of scale, and global investment in research and development (R&D). Lead-acid, reliant on a mature and less scalable technology base, has seen only modest cost improvements. This widening cost-performance gap is fundamentally reshaping investment narratives in the energy storage space.

Environmental and regulatory considerations further tilt the scale. Lead-acid batteries contain toxic substances such as lead and sulfuric acid, exposing manufacturers and users to increasingly stringent environmental compliance requirements and costly disposal obligations. As sustainability standards tighten globally, Lead-acid’s risk profile is deteriorating, both reputationally and financially.

For investors, this transition presents a clear strategic opportunity: while Lead-acid investments are becoming riskier, Li-ion continues to gain momentum, making manufacturing, supply chain integration, and technology advancements in Li-ion the primary areas of focus.

While much of the global battery supply chain is concentrated in China, the US and Europe, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is emerging as a key player in the sector. Historically, the region has been viewed primarily as a raw material supplier, but there is now growing momentum towards local beneficiation and manufacturing. This shift presents new investment opportunities, particularly in refining, precursor material production and, eventually, battery assembly.

SSA’s growing relevance stems first from its commanding position in the global supply of critical minerals. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe and Namibia are home to some of the world’s largest reserves of Lithium, cobalt and nickel – all core components of Lithium-ion battery production. As geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism prompt supply chain diversification, these countries are becoming focal points in global sourcing strategies.

Beyond raw materials, there is a noticeable policy shift toward localisation. Governments across the region are rolling out incentives to attract investment in local refining and processing capacity. This move seeks to reverse the longstanding pattern of exporting unprocessed ore, to capture greater economic value domestically. For investors, this creates compelling prospects in battery precursor manufacturing and related midstream infrastructure, with potential benefits in both cost and supply chain resilience.

Simultaneously, demand for energy storage solutions within the region is on the rise. The need for off-grid electrification, industrial energy reliability, and nascent interest in electric mobility is beginning to establish a local market base. This shift presents an opportunity to support the development of decentralised, locally produced battery systems tailored to regional requirements.

Despite these advantages, challenges remain, including logistical constraints, regulatory risks, and infrastructure gaps. Investors considering SSA should take a measured approach, focusing on projects with strong government backing, clear policy support, and robust offtake agreements to mitigate risks.

Investing in batteries requires a clear understanding of both near-term and long-term market shifts. While Li-ion presents a compelling immediate opportunity, emerging technologies and regional supply chain developments will shape the sector’s future.

• Near-term opportunity (2025-2030): Li-ion remains the dominant and most scalable investment option, with well-established manufacturing and supply chains. Investors should focus on Li-ion-related manufacturing capacity, supply chain integration, and localisation strategies.

• Mid-term positioning (2030-2035): Monitor new technologies like sodium-ion and solid-state battery developments, particularly in cost-sensitive applications. Explore strategic partnerships with battery innovators to gain early exposure to next-generation technologies.

• Long-term strategy (beyond 2035): Assess SSA’s potential as a major battery production hub, particularly as local policies and infrastructure improve. Track high-potential battery chemistries that may challenge Li-ion at scale, depending on material innovations and regulatory shifts.

The battery market is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with Li-ion overtaking and displacing Lead-acid technology across nearly all applications. Investors who position themselves early in Li-ion manufacturing, supply chain development, and emerging technology tracking will be best placed to capture value in this evolving market.

Rautenbach is Vice-President and Dempers, a Manager | Singular Advisory Africa

1 Battery Market Outlook 2025-2030, GlobeNewsWire (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/04/3020360/28124/en/Battery-Market-Outlook-2025-2030-Insights-on-Electric-Vehicles-Energy-Storage-and-Consumer-Electronics-Growth.html)
2 Battery Market industry analysis, GrandViewResearch (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/battery-market)
3 World Energy Outlook Special Report, International Energy Agency (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/cb39c1bf-d2b3-446d-8c35-aae6b1f3a4a0/BatteriesandSecureEnergyTransitions.pdf)
4 Lithium-ion Battery Market Summary, GrandViewResearch (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/Lithium-ion-battery-market)

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

Ghost Bites (Afrimat | Bidcorp | Blue Label Telecoms | Curro | OUTsurance | Spur | Transpaco)

Afrimat’s ugly year continues (JSE: AFT)

The share price has shed 45% of its value in 2025

Afrimat is navigating quite the storm at the moment, with the business dealing with a most unfortunate cocktail of unfavourable commodity markets, major concerns around South African infrastructure and the overhang of potential corporate failure at ArcelorMittal (JSE: ACL) as a major customer. Although Afrimat has noted that the bulk of its supply to ArcelorMittal goes to ArcelorMittal’s Flats business, not the Longs business that is likely to be shut down, the market doesn’t like risk and especially not in a market like South Africa.

Speaking of risk, Afrimat recently rolled the dice in acquiring the Lafarge business, a transaction with substantial long-term potential and short-term pain.

The net result of all this is unfortunately a plummeting share price,

Afrimat has released a pre-close update dealing with the six months ending August. They note that although Q1 was weak, there were signs of improvement in Q2. This includes an improvement in sales volumes, as well as significant progress made on the integration of the Lafarge business.

Here’s a fun fact for you: 50% of the Transnet-approved quarries are owned by Afrimat. This gives you an idea of the potential upside in the business if we could just see an improvement to the South African infrastructure story. A separate and highly relevant point regarding Transnet is confirmation by Afrimat that the decline in logistics availability on the Saldanha export line has been stopped, which is obviously great news for the iron ore business.

Afrimat shareholders have historically been spoilt by the company’s diversification and ability to avoid the typical cyclical pain that is found in this sector. The recent combination of issues has proven to be too much for the market, leading to the huge decline in the share price. Afrimat is all the way back to the levels seen five years ago. Like all cyclicals, at some point this is likely to turn and those who buy at the bottom will make a fortune. Alas, figuring out the exact location of the bottom isn’t so easy.


Bidcorp just keeps delivering (JSE: BID)

This is one of the most solid names on the JSE

Bidcorp has released results for the year ended June 2025. With the recent performance of the rand, their position as one of the most effective rand hedges on the JSE was actually a negative in this period! This is evidenced by revenue being up 6.8% in constant currency, but only 4.3% as reported.

Trading profit increased by 6.4% and HEPS was up 6.5%. The dividend increased by 6.4%. It’s a dependable, simple shape to the income statement that appeals to long-term investors.

The share price closed 3.7% lower though, taking the year-to-date move to +4.7% (with very choppy trading along the way). Bidcorp trades at a lofty Price/Earnings multiple, hence why there’s no obvious direction to the share price in a period in which performance is positive, but also uninspiring.

As a quick note on underlying performance, it was the UK and Europe that saw a strong bump in profit in this period, with a positive contribution from emerging markets as well. Australasia was a drag on performance and is unfortunately the second largest segment in terms of profits, so that would’ve contributed to the share price dip on the day.


Blue Label Telecoms took an 18% bath on the day of releasing earnings (JSE: BLU)

And there was no shortage of fighting between bulls and bears on the socials

There are three types of people when it comes to Blue Label Telecoms: (1) those who claim to understand the financials, (2) those who at least acknowledge that they bought the stock based on momentum, rather than fundamentals, and (3) those who don’t buy complicated financials on principle. I fall into the third category.

It seems as though a number of people in the second category headed for the exit on Tuesday, with the share price closing 18% lower on the day of results. This is despite a 2% increase in gross profit and a 17% increase in EBITDA. Once you factor in the huge swing on the associates line though, you end up with a 262% increase in headline earnings!

It’s usually worth following the cash and seeing how a business actually makes its money. Blue Label generated cash from trading operations of R488 million and then spent so much on interest (and tax) that they ended up with a net cash outflow from operating activities of R466 million. The reason why the net decrease in group cash for the year to May 2025 was “only” R75 million is that they raised a whole lot of debt.

The sooner that Blue Label separates out Cell C and lists it as a standalone company, the better. The reaction by the market to these numbers tells you that people are jittery and unsure of what the fair value really is. Of course, this is both an opportunity and a risk, which is what makes markets so exciting!


Curro to be taken private at R13 per share (JSE: COH)

From growth darling to charity case – literally

A decade ago, Curro was the growth story on the JSE. People were fighting over each other for allocations in capital raises, with the story being clear: South Africa was failing its people and thus there was a huge opportunity in offering private education to middle-income South Africans. In some respects, they were right. The risk that was probably impossible to foresee at the time was a sharp decline in total births in South Africa, a function of both a huge shift in society and substantial emigration as well.

If you can’t fill the schools, it’s very hard to make money from them. Curro’s results for the six months to June tell a story of a company that is treading water, with revenue up 4.7% and flat EBITDA for the year. Recurring HEPS increased by just 0.2%.

Is that a sustainable business? Sure. Is it an appealing investment? No.

With very little likelihood (in my view) of the trend in learner numbers turning positive, Curro’s story has evolved from one of growth to one of social enterprise, where the company is capable of running at a sustainable profit, but probably not with the kind of metrics that investors want to see.

This is where the Jannie Mouton Stigting comes in, being a public benefit organisation that was founded by Mouton as an education investment vehicle and that currently has a 3.36% stake in Curro. Clearly, Curro is the perfect way to execute the overall dream of the organisation. The Jannie Mouton Stigting will be acquiring Curro and turning it into a non-profit company through this transaction.

I must say, I’m surprised that there is a reference in the announcement to a need to scale Curro even further. Perhaps they will invest in more schools aimed at lower-income families, with a price point to match. I hope so, as that would truly make a difference in South Africa. With the current pricing strategy, I just don’t think that Curro is targeting a broad enough group of kids.

The Jannie Mouton Stigting is paying up for the stake, with a price of R13 per share on the table for Curro. This is a reminder of the dangers of shorting, as having a short position in Curro would’ve been a perfectly reasonable thing to do under the current fundamental circumstances, yet this offer just came in at a 60% premium to the closing price on 25 August. Anyone caught short on this stock is seriously bleeding.

The deal will be paid for through cash (only 6.6% of the price) and a swap of Capitec and PSG Financial Services shares currently held by the trust. It’s therefore an incredibly clever situation in which the trust is using its capital base in highly successful companies to go and acquire a group that perfectly matches its objectives.

Other than for those who just saw their short positions obliterated, it’s hard to see how anyone could fault this deal. People like to hate on billionaires, yet another example of one stepping in to make up for the failings of government. Save your energy for hating on corrupt public officials instead.


A spectacular year for OUTsurance (JSE: OUT)

This adds to the positive sentiment in the financial services sector

Generally speaking, the insurance-based financial services groups are doing well at the moment. OUTsurance has added its voice (and growth) to that mix, with a trading update for the year ended June 2025.

They are enjoying not just decent premium growth, but also a favourable claims experience. Although they are incubating OUTsurance Ireland as a new business and are thus incurring start-up losses there, the growth elsewhere in the group is more than making up for it. In fact, it’s the Australian business that is really flying at the moment in terms of the larger segments, serving as a wonderful reminder that OUTsurance knows exactly how to build offshore businesses from scratch. If they can replicate the Australian success in Ireland, shareholders should be smiling.

The smiles are there already, with HEPS up by between 26% and 32% for the year to June 2025. Although OUTsurance trades at a substantial Price/Earnings multiple, that’s still good enough for a 12% year-to-date performance in the share price.


Spur is on the wrong end of an arbitration claim (JSE: SUR)

And it’s an oral agreement about ribs that is being debated, ironically

Two companies within the Spur group were served summons in 2019 by GPS Food Group RSA, based on an alleged oral agreement regarding the establishment of a rib processing facility. The damages claim is between R119.9 million and R167 million. If that first claim failed, there was an alternative delictual claim of R95.8 million.

The parties went to arbitration and the arbitrator made a “part award” yesterday in favour of GPS based on the first claim (the bigger one). No award was made on the second claim. Notably, the arbitrator hasn’t determined the quantum of damages.

Either way, Spur will appeal it within the next 30 days. This goes to a panel of three arbitrators and that ruling is final.


Transpaco reflects the broader SA industrial sentiment (JSE: TPC)

Almost every metric is slightly in the red

Transpaco released results for the year to June 2025. They are incredibly uninspiring, with revenue down 2.2% and HEPS down 0.9%. The dividend was down 2.1%. This isn’t the most liquid stock around, but a 13.3% year-to-date drop tells you that all isn’t well in the industrial segment of the South African economy.

The plastics division grew revenue by 0.2% at least, while the paper division fell by 4.6%. If there’s a silver lining in here somewhere, it’s probably that group operating margin was maintained at 8.6%. Under the circumstances, that’s actually quite impressive.

The SA Inc. dream really hasn’t come to fruition this year, despite all the exuberance we saw in 2024 around the GNU.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The spouse of the CEO of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) bought shares worth R675k.
    • A director of Invicta (JSE: IVT) bought shares worth R58k.
    • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) bought shares worth R8k.
  • Putprop (JSE: PPR) has guided an increase in HEPS for the year ended June 2025 of between 20.8% and 40.8%.
  • All the resolutions that would’ve been in favour of the group of institutional shareholders who demanded the extraordinary general meeting of MAS (JSE: MSP) failed to pass at the meeting. This is obviously because the Prime Kapital offer was a success in terms of getting enough votes locked in ahead of that meeting.
  • Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) has confirmed that the offer to Assura (JSE: AHR) shareholders will remain open for acceptance until 10 September 2025. Primary Health now has over 92% in Assura and they will be following the compulsory acquisition (or squeeze-out) process to take this to 100%, delisting Assura in the process.
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) has officially started trading on the JSE! It will no doubt take a while for volumes to pick up, as is usually the case with a new listing.
  • Rex Trueform (JSE: RTO) will increase its stake in Byte Orbit from 30.02% to 51.02% for R21 million. They will pay for it through the issuance of more Rex Trueform N shares, which are listed on the JSE. It may sound like a toothpaste company, but it’s actually a software and digital innovation company. This is also relevant to shareholders of African and Overseas Enterprises (JSE: AOO).
  • AYO Technology (JSE: AYO) has pushed out its general meeting from 29 August to 29 September based on a request from the PIC to have more time to consider the “merits and risks associated with holding shares in a delisted entity”.
  • Salungano (JSE: SLG) has agreed a “standstill” with its banks, which means they standstill on their legal rights provided that the company complies with the terms of its debt. Salungano has been in breach of its loan facilities since 21 June 2023. Remember, when you owe the bank a fortune, you can get them to standstill. When you just owe them for a car, you’ll be the one standing still after they take it away.
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) is suspended from trading and hopes to finalise its audit process for the 2024 financials by the end of September.

Note: Ghost Bites is my journal of each day’s news on SENS. It reflects my own opinions and analysis and should only be one part of your research process. Nothing you read here is financial advice. E&OE. Disclaimer.

Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | Cashbuild | Mahube Infrastructure | Master Drilling | Motus | Old Mutual | Redefine Properties)

Accelerate Property Fund has sold two buildings at NAV – yet the market didn’t like it (JSE: APF)

Shareholders are clearly still panicky when it comes to this stock

There are a lot of reasons to worry about Accelerate Property Fund. There are significant overhangs on the share price, not least of all the related party issues that have become problematic once more. The ongoing turnaround of Fourways Mall remains uncertain, although there are significant green shoots. The TL;DR is that this is a risky play.

The fund trades at a huge discount to net asset value (NAV) due to these issues, which tells you at least one thing for sure: selling properties at NAV can only be a good thing. In fact, it would be a fantastic outcome for shareholders if the fund could sell absolutely all its assets at NAV, settle its liabilities and pay the rest to shareholders.

Now, a sale of the full portfolio isn’t on the cards right now, but partial sales along the way should be most welcomed. Instead, the share price closed 7% lower on the news of Accelerate selling The Buzz and Waterford Centre for a total price of R215 million, which is equal to the directors’ valuation (i.e. the NAV) as at 31 March this year.

It’s an odd response from the market that demonstrates just how much confusion and panic there is around this share price. Therein lies the opportunity for speculators of course, with the caveat that this is a high-risk turnaround story.

The buyer of the two properties is Dorpstraat Capital Growth Fund, with a number of backers including Rabie Property Group (a name you may know). The Buzz and Waterford are both situated in Fourways, as per usual when it comes to Accelerate Property Fund.

There are unfortunately some hurdles that need to be overcome for the sale, including a rezoning to unlock the final R10 million of the purchase price and an unconditional Competition Commission approval to get the entire transaction done. Thankfully there are no sales commissions at play though, as the parties have clearly been negotiating directly with each other. This means that the proceeds of R215 million can be fully applied to debt reduction and overall flexibility on the Accelerate balance sheet. It’s just going to take a few months to get the cash.

The disposal yield is 9.5% based on one-year forward income and taking into account Pick n Pay’s exit from The Buzz.

Down 7% for the day and now at R0.39 per share, the share price is changing hands below the recent rights offer price of R0.40 per share. Either the investors dumping the stock are wrong, or the anchor shareholders are wrong, but someone is wrong here. Only time will tell, but my view is that a sell-off in the stock in response to a sale of properties at NAV is a sign of an irrational market.


Cashbuild managed to increase earnings this year (JSE: CSB)

But nothing is coming easy at the moment

As we saw with Italtile (JSE: ITE) earlier this week, consumer discretionary retail has been a real slog this year. It’s hardly any better in the US by the way, with the likes of Home Depot and Lowe’s reporting that consumers are more willing to do small DIY projects than large projects at the moment. The reason is the same on both sides of the pond: interest rates are stubbornly high and consumers are taking strain.

With a retail-focused model rather than a manufacturing arm like Italtile has, Cashbuild is better equipped to weather the storm. It’s hard enough trying to generate decent returns from a store footprint. Once you add on the fixed costs of manufacturing, then operating leverage really kicks in and a weak consumer environment kicks you harder.

This is why Cashbuild’s trading performance for the 52 weeks to 29 June 2025 is well ahead of Italtile, with HEPS growth of between 7% and 12%. Italtile could only manage 2% over the same period. Given the underlying business model differences, I think both companies did pretty well under the circumstances!

Cashbuild is expected to release results by 3 September.


It looks likely that Mahube Infrastructure will be leaving the JSE (JSE: MHB)

Another day, another takeout offer

Mahube Infrastructure released a cautionary announcement on Tuesday and ended the day 32% higher. This combination usually means only one thing: a takeout bid is coming.

Sure enough, the cautionary confirms that the company has been approached by a third-party offeror looking to make a cash offer for all the shares in Mahube in the form of a scheme of arrangement, which would naturally lead to the delisting of the company if the scheme is approved.

It’s very important to note that nothing is finalised or guaranteed at this point. The company also hasn’t indicated the price of the potential offer, so the market is taking a guess right now around whether there’s more upside in this thing.

The board has constituted an independent board of directors to consider the proposal. More details will be announced when they are ready. I’ll say it again: nothing is guaranteed here.


Master Drilling managed to grind out some growth in this period (JSE: MDI)

The impairment reversals may not be in HEPS, but they are important nonetheless

Master Drilling released results for the six months to June. They work hard to convince you to look at the results in US dollars rather than in rand, despite only 48% of group revenue being in hard currencies vs. emerging currencies. There’s some selected additional disclosure of rand movements (like in HEPS), but the rest is in US dollars.

Revenue was up 4.9% in US dollars for the period and HEPS was up 6.7% on the same basis, or 4.7% in rand. It’s so refreshing to be in a situation where the rand recently strengthened against the US dollar, hence the rand growth rate in HEPS is actually lower than the US dollar growth rate. There haven’t been many times in the past couple of decades when we can say that!

Importantly, the committed order book of $305.6 million is significantly higher than $271.4 million as at June 2024. This bodes well for the second half of the year and beyond.

Impairments are non-cash items and don’t affect HEPS, so you’ll rarely see me paying much attention to them. In this case though, the good news at Master Drilling is that a previously recognised impairment on the Mobile Tunnel Boring Machine has been partially reversed. Why does this matter? Well, it shows that the machinery has more of a use case than previously thought, which indicates a lower risk of obsolescence due to market factors.

Keep an eye on the capital allocation here, as cash generated from operations was $11 million and capital spend was $13.9 million. Sure, it’s only one period, but you don’t need to get the calculator out to see that this doesn’t leave any cashflow for shareholders in this particular period. It also tells you exactly why technological obsolescence is such an important point, as this is a capex-heavy business.

The market was happy with what it saw, with Master Drilling closing 6.5% higher on the day.


Motus had a better second half and enjoyed lower net finance costs (JSE: MTH)

Revenue has come out roughly flat for the year

Motus has released a trading update for the year ended June 2025. Before considering the full-year numbers, it’s worth reflecting on the interim results, where revenue was down 2% and HEPS was up 1%. The second half was better than the first half, boosted by decent numbers in the South African vehicle market. This is why for the full year, revenue moved by between -1% and +1% (i.e. flat at the midpoint) and HEPS came in between 3% and 5% higher.

The biggest boost to the numbers came from a decrease in net finance costs of between 12% and 14%. These businesses are highly sensitive to interest rates not just because of the impact on consumer demand for vehicles, but also because of the impact they have on floor finance at the dealerships.

The share price closed 2.6% higher on the day, taking the year-to-date drop to 13.9%.


Old Mutual’s adjusted HEPS moved higher – but that’s only if you exclude Zimbabwe (JSE: OMU)

The issue is the functional currency change in Zimbabwe

Old Mutual’s share price is up 13.9% year-to-date, while arch-rival Sanlam (JSE: SLM) is only up 3.3%. This outperformance all happened in the past week, driven by the market’s favourable response to Old Mutual’s earnings. I now need to remind you that over 5 years, Sanlam is up 56% while Old Mutual has managed just 22%. There’s a lot of catching up to do.

The latest trading statement from Old Mutual deals with the six months to June and it shows that things are at least headed in the right direction. Old Mutual Insure did well and financial market were favourable to the returns of the insurance group. To add to this, the prior period included some significant negative once-offs.

The Zimbabwean business has skewed the numbers, as HEPS without any adjustments has dropped by between 37% and 17% for the period due to the change in functional currency from Zimbabwe Gold to the US dollar. Adjusting for that impact shows that HEPS actually increased by between 21% and 41%.

Here’s the good news: it’s the base period that is driving that huge difference, as HEPS in interim 2024 was 133.6 cents without the adjustment and 73.5 cents with it. That’s good news, as the guidance for interim 2025 doesn’t change dramatically when you look at reported (84.2 cents to 110.9 cents) vs. adjusted (88.9 cents to 103.6 cents) numbers.

Interim results are due for release on 10 September.


Redefine Properties has upgraded the midpoint of its FY25 guidance (JSE: RDF)

The company released a pre-close update for the year ending 31 August

Redefine Properties came into this pre-close update with a share price that is up 10% year-to-date. That compares favourably to local property ETFs that are up around 7% over that period, so Redefine has outperformed the broader sector.

Redefine’s previous guidance for the year ending 31 August 2025 for distributable income per share was 50 cents to 53 cents. The company has upgraded that guidance to between 51.5 cents and 52.5 cents. Although the top-end of the range is lower, the mid-point has shifted from 51.5 cents to 52.0 cents, hence it counts as an upgrade.

I think this is the most interesting chart from the presentation, showing the sensitivity of earnings to various variables:

As you can see, the most sensitive factor is South African interest rates, followed by rental increases in Poland and then European interest rates. I don’t think this list is exhaustive, as I would’ve expected to see South African rent indexation / portfolio-wide reversions on the list. It remains useful though as a way to understand the relative impact of some of the key drivers of performance.

If we look deeper at the performance, the overall South African portfolio (which is 45% Retail, 34% Office, 20% Industrial and 1% Specialised) saw occupancy rates improve from 93.2% in August last year to 94.1% as at the end of July this year. Reversions have improved from -5.9% to -5.2%, but are clearly still negative.

You wouldn’t be off the mark to think that the office portfolio is at fault here for the overall negative situation, as reversions in that segment were -12.3% in this period. But that’s actually slightly better than -13.9% in the prior period, so the office portfolio has contributed to the year-on-year improvement. The worrying trend is in the industrial portfolio, with reversions of -0.2% vs. +5.5% in the comparable period. This is admittedly on only a small part of the overall portfolio that churns in each period, so it’s dangerous to read too much into that trend. As for the retail portfolio, reversions improved from +0.2% to +1.6%.

There’s an important nugget of information in the presentation that offers a read-through for the apparel sector, where I recently took a long position in Mr Price (JSE: MRP) as the pick of the local litter in that space (in my opinion at least):

The importance of reading widely just cannot be overstated. You can read about a property fund and learn something about clothing retail in the process!

Moving across to Poland, the eCommerce threat is becoming clearer – footfall across the EPP portfolio was down by 2% year-on-year. Turnover was up 2%, so things are still trending in the right direction, but I do think that eCommerce is a significant part of the bear case for these retail-focused property funds. As part of the fund’s diversification strategy, the portfolio in Poland also includes logistics and self-storage assets, with a solid improvement in the vacancy rate in the past year.

In terms of the balance sheet, the see-through loan-to-value (LTV) was 46.8% as at the end of May 2025, an improvement from 47.9% as at August 2024. The weighted average cost of debt fell by a significant 90 basis points to 6.6%. And as that useful sensitivity chart showed us, decreases in borrowing rates make a big difference to property funds.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A few directors of Spur (JSE: SUR) received share awards and sold the taxable portion, but one director kept the entire award worth R997k i.e. funded the tax other than through selling shares.
    • An independent non-executive director of Bytes Technology Group (JSE: BYI) bought shares worth around R600k.
  • Shareholders in Phuthuma Nathi, the B-BBEE scheme related to MultiChoice South Africa within MultiChoice Group (JSE: MCG), have voted in favour of the restructuring required to get the broader deal with Canal+ across the line. No surprise there really, as I think it’s their only realistic chance of getting decent long-term value from the business. That share price is up roughly 18% over 30 days and is still down 21% over 90 days, showing how much volatility there has been.
  • Vukile Property Fund (JSE: VKE) has put in place a building block for further growth, with an announcement that the Domestic Medium Term Note Programme amount has been increased from R5 billion to R10 billion.
  • British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI) announced that CFO Soraya Benchikh will be stepping down as CFO with effect from 26 August 2025 (i.e. immediately), with availability to support the team until the end of 2025. That does feel very sudden, as evidenced by the current Director of Digital and Information stepping into the Finance Director role on an interim basis. British American Tobacco will now need to look for a permanent successor.
  • Delta Property Fund (JSE: DLT) continues to take every opportunity that it can to sell off non-core properties. The latest example is the sale of a building in Parkmore for R19 million to Afrocentric Intellectual Property. From what I could see online, this company has nothing to do with the listed AfroCentric, just in case you were wondering. The property was previously valued at R18.1 million, so this is a rare example of a sale above book value! The fund announced that the sales of the Du Toitspan and Pine Parkade properties have also been finalised and that transfer has taken place. Slowly but surely, they are chipping away at the group debt.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding the potential disposal of certain subsidiaries. Although this has been going on for a while, there are still no guarantees of a deal happening here.
  • Conduit Capital (JSE: CND) has renewed its cautionary announcement for what feels like the gazillionth time. There’s still no clear way out of that mess, with the group’s main subsidiary placed into liquidation.

Ghost Bites (ADvTECH | Clientele | Fairvest | Harmony | Hulamin | Italtile | Momentum | Sasol)

Despite mid-teens earnings growth at ADvTECH, the share price is flat this year (JSE: ADH)

This is the great frustration for investors of an unwinding multiple

When the market loves a company, the valuation tends to get pushed to the limits. This leads to a scenario where an excellent company can be an average or even poor investment, as the thing needs to grow into its boots. With ADvTECH’s share price down 1% this year despite HEPS for the six months to June 2025 being up 15%, it’s a perfect example of this situation.

If you ever hear someone referring to an “unwinding multiple” then this is what they are talking about – earnings moving higher and the share price not following suit, leading to a decreasing earnings multiple over time as it “grows” into its valuation.

The company can’t control the share price, but they can control the underlying performance. Full credit to ADvTECH here: 10% revenue growth and an 18.4% increase in the interim dividend is excellent.

Above all else, ADvTECH is a story of the benefit of operating a premium model in a market that is struggling for growth in volumes. In this case, the “volume” is the number of kids in schools, with Curro’s (JSE: COH) huge footprint turning out to be more of a liability than an asset thanks to current birth trends. ADvTECH has a smaller base of schools that have a more upmarket focus, which means that demand remains strong relative to supply and that they can drive prices higher accordingly. In Schools South Africa for example, revenue was up 11% and operating profit increased 12%, driven by a 4% increase in enrolments on a like-for-like basis.

In Rest of Africa, ADvTECH operates a similar premium model that targets expats and wealthy locals. Revenue increased by 31% and operating profit was up 34% in that business, so the model clearly works.

As the cherry on top, the Tertiary business (the largest segment) generated revenue growth of 13% and operating profit growth of 14%. As we’ve seen at sector peer STADIO (JSE: SDO), this is a lucrative place to play.

The Resourcing business continues to be the ugly duckling in the group, with revenue down 5% and profit down 2%. As I say every single time I write about ADvTECH, it’s an odd strategic fit that the group would be better off selling. I’m pretty sure that investors are bullish on ADvTECH despite the Resourcing business, not because of it. I would love to hear any opposing views on this!


Clientèle has had a strong financial year (JSE: CLI)

And the market responded accordingly

Clientèle has released a trading statement dealing with the year ended June 2025. HEPS is expected to be up by between 39% and 59%, a fantastic outcome indeed. That suggests a range of 136.88 cents to 156.56 cents, or 146.72 cents at the midpoint. The share price closed at R13.64, suggested a P/E at the midpoint of around 9.3x.

Although the group results will be skewed by a bargain purchase gain on the acquisition of 1Life, this doesn’t affect the HEPS calculation and thus isn’t the reason for the jump in earnings. Having said that, the actual consolidation of 1Life into the numbers would’ve had an effect on the numbers, but they acquired it in a share-for-share deal and thus HEPS (which is a per-share measure) would take into account the additional shares in issue for that acquisition. In contrast, a cash-settled acquisition skews the numbers far more, as companies “buy” earnings and don’t issue additional shares for them, leading to a significant increase in HEPS that might not be reflective of the true underlying performance.

As for Clientèle, it seems as though these numbers might be a reflection of just how well the business is actually doing. We will have to wait for detailed results on 5 September to know for sure.


Fairvest’s capital raise is another sign that things are getting frothy in property (JSE: FTA | JSE: FTB)

Shares trading above NAV and accelerated bookbuilds that raise far more than initially planned? Yeah, I’ve seen this movie…

Fairvest kept SENS busy on Monday, starting off with the announcement of an accelerated bookbuild to raise R400 million. Now, if you go back a bit in their SENS announcements, you’ll find that they announced some deals a couple of months ago for R478 million. Tempting as it is to think that this capital is needed for those deals, a further read shows that those deals already closed. So, this is more a case of “give us the money and we will figure out what to do with it” – that’s one of the early warning signs of the local property sector being overvalued.

But is this an isolated example, or have we seen others? Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) did much the same in terms of raising for general acquisition purposes, but they have an incredible track record of capital allocation. I would be more worried about the more recent Hyprop (JSE: HYP) example, where the company raised R808 million through an accelerated bookbuild based on little more than a vague promise to try and acquire MAS (JSE: MSP) – and as regular readers will know, that deal never happened and now Hyprop is sitting on the capital.

Onwards to the next test of frothiness in the sector: did the market throw more at Fairvest than they asked for? The answer is a resounding yes, with the book eventually closing with commitments of R970 million – more than double the initially planned amount! It’s clear that institutions are falling over themselves to throw money at quality funds, even when the use of those proceeds isn’t clear. Hmmm.

Third test: the pricing. If the raise was at a substantial discount to the net asset value per share, then it makes sense for there to be a bunfight over the shares. There was a discount in the end, but a narrow one to say the least. They raised at R5.40 per share, which is 2.28% off the 30-day VWAP per Fairvest B share of R5.53. But here’s the wild thing thing: the net asset value per B share as at March 2025 was R4.79, which means that the share and the capital raise were both at a substantial premium to net asset value.

Buckle up. Whilst I don’t think we are quite at silly season levels yet (the 2014 – 2016 bubble saw weekly bookbuilds in the sector), we seem to be heading that way. When I start seeing more of this, I’ll be rotating my tax-free savings exposure away from local property and into something else. It’s been fun, but I have zero desire to own property funds at a premium to NAV while I get diluted regularly by discounted bookbuilds.


Harmony’s production dipped year-on-year, but the gold price drove earnings higher (JSE: HAR)

They ended up within guidance for production and costs

Harmony Gold released a trading statement for the year ended June 2025. Production came in at just over 46,000kg, which is around 5.3% lower than the prior year. Although the production number was towards the upper end of the guided range, it’s still a pity that production decreased at such a lucrative time for gold miners.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in sharply higher at R1,054,346/kg, a nasty increase of nearly 17% year-on-year. Again, they are within guided range here, but that doesn’t mean that the year-on-year trend is what shareholders want to see.

Thankfully, a 27% increase in the average gold price received was more than enough to offset these issues (and a few others, like a higher tax expense), with HEPS increasing by between 18% and 32% in rand.

The share price is up 72% year-to-date, which is obviously a lovely return, but it’s well off the performance at peers like Gold Fields (JSE: GFI – up 114%) and AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG – up 111%). For shareholders, it’s a case of what might have been.

Detailed results are scheduled for release on 28 August. You can expect the company to spend plenty of time talking about its copper strategy as a source of diversification.


Hulamin’s volatility is quite something – and poor results don’t help (JSE: HLM)

Earnings have plummeted

If you enjoy rollercoaster rides and possibly even skydiving, then Hulamin might be for you. The 52-week high is R4.28 and the 52-week low is R1.65. You can park an entire national dialogue in that gap, with the share price currently trading at R2.53.

The reason for the price being much closer to the 52-week low than the 52-week high is that results for the six months to June were somewhat awful. Despite core volumes being up 2%, they suffered a 20% drop in normalised HEPS and a 48% decrease in normalised HEPS.

There are a few strategies in place to try and address this. They’ve closed Hulamin Containers and they are looking to dispose of Hulamin Extrusions this year. Importantly, the wide canbody expansion project has been commissioned and they are targeting commercial readiness in the first quarter of 2026, with the plan being to compete with imports by offering a locally sourced alternative.

Unsurprisingly in this context, there’s no dividend. Those who are willing to take a punt on this turnaround aren’t going to be paid to wait around. Luckily, if things are going to get better, that should be visible pretty soon.

Personally, this isn’t one for me, not least of all with net debt up 16% at a time when earnings have dropped so sharply.


A resilient performance at Italtile (JSE: ITE)

For some reason, they feel very confident with the dividend

For Italtile (and other consumer discretionary product retailers) to do well, they need consumers to have spare cash and a willingness to spend it. Alas, this combination doesn’t tend to be a feature of the South African business landscape, hence Italtile had to make do with a 2% drop in system-wide turnover for the year ended June 2025.

Along with the dip in sales, the retail business saw a decrease in margins as well. This speaks directly to consumer pressure. If interest rates drop at some point, then that will help.

The margin situation is far more worrying in the manufacturing business, with an oversupply situation in South Africa that has led to damaging price competition. It’s not clear that a decrease in rates will solve that problem.

Against this backdrop, Italtile has to focus on controlling what it can, like expenses. They managed to decrease operating costs by 3%, which means that trading profit was flat. Impressively, HEPS actually came in 2% higher at 125.1 cents.

The dividend is the real star of the show though, with the ordinary dividend up 2% and the special dividend up 26%. The total dividend is thus 17% higher at 148 cents, a payout of significantly more than HEPS! Management is clearly very happy with the balance sheet and is keen to demonstrate capital discipline to investors, although they obviously need to be careful here.

The share price is down 21% year-to-date and is now on a more reasonable price/earnings multiple of 8.8x, which makes a lot more sense than the previous inflated levels it was trading at despite management consistently telling the market that things are tough out there.


Momentum really is living up to its name (JSE: MTM)

The latest trading statement shows why the share price has been strong

Momentum’s share price is up roughly 33% in the past year. For a company of this size to increase in value by a third, there needs to be a good reason. Thankfully, the latest trading statement has given a few good reasons!

Here’s the reason that really counts: normalised headline earnings per share increased by between 41% and 51% for the year ended June 2025. That’s not very different to HEPS without normalisation adjustments, which increased by between 45% and 55%.

Importantly, this also represents excellent follow-through from the interim results, where normalised headline earnings per share increased by 48%.

They say that “most business units” contributed “meaningfully” to the performance, so that’s further happy news for investors. Across the life and short-term books, there were several drivers of the positive performance. Detailed results are due for release on 17 September and it’s certainly going to be interesting to see exactly where they made their money,


Sasol’s numbers have large once-offs – but what else is new? (JSE: SOL)

The worry remains the rand oil price

The market seemed to appreciate Sasol’s results for the year ended June 2025, with the share price closing 11.7% higher on the day of release. Perhaps the exuberance was around free cash flow, which jumped by 75% to R12.6 billion. That sounds incredible, but a Transnet net cash settlement of R4.3 billion was just one of the unusual boosts to this number.

As always, Sasol’s adjustments also include huge non-cash items, in this case related to items like derivatives and environmental rehabilitation provisions.

If we look through all the noise to the core drivers of earnings, we find the rand oil price as the major concern. Sasol made it clear at the capital markets day that they are hoping for a flat performance in their refining business over the next few years, which means they need the rand oil price to play along. Alas, a stronger rand and a weaker oil price this year meant that the rand oil price fell by 15%. Combined with lower sales volumes, this led to a 9% decrease in turnover at Sasol and a decline of 14% in adjusted EBITDA.

Within that negative group performance, there are at least signs of life in the chemicals business. US ethylene margin improved and so did the chemicals basket price, leading to an uplift in adjusted EBITDA of $120 million in that business. As this is the focus area at Sasol for earnings growth, I’m sure this was part of why the market enjoyed these numbers.

But when it comes to the contribution to group earnings, the Southern Africa business is still way more important than International Chemicals. The latter contributed 15% of adjusted EBITDA in this period vs. 9% the year before. This tells us that for all the self-help initiatives underway at Sasol, they are still heavily exposed to the rand oil price.

They are doing what they can to try and make up for this issue, with a focus on cost control and a 16% decrease in capital expenditure. But as is always the case with cyclical energy companies, their fate is to a large extent determined by external forces.

And yet at the bottom of this income statement filled with noise and distractions, we find HEPS growth of 93%!

The balance sheet is stronger at least, with net debt excluding leases down 13%. The Transnet settlement and the overall cash generation of the business was useful here. There’s no interim dividend though, as Sasol won’t pay a dividend unless net debt is below $3 billion. They are currently on $3.7 billion, so shareholders have to be patient.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) sold shares worth R13.2 million.
    • The founder and CEO of Datatec (JSE: DTC) bought shares worth R1.5 million.
    • Des de Beer has bought another R87k worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE).
  • As a condition precedent to the acquisition by Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) of Blue Ridge Platinum that was announced approximately a month ago, Mantengu needed to enter into a B-BBEE deal to sell a portion of its stake in Blue Ridge to suitable empowerment parties. Mantengu has duly done so, with the counterparties including a private company (20%), an employee trust (5%) and a community trust (5%). The 30% is being sold for a nominal value.
  • As per usual, NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) is giving shareholders a choice regarding how they want to receive their dividend. A circular has been distributed to shareholders that deals with the election of either an ordinary cash dividend or a capital repayment. It will all come down to tax at the end of the day. If you are a NEPI shareholder, I strongly suggest you refer to the circular and check with your tax advisor.
  • Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC) has received approval from the SARB for the special dividend, with a payment date of 22 September.
  • The CFO of Putprop (JSE: PPR), James Smith, will be retiring at the end of this year after 18 years with the group. A successor has not been named as of yet.
  • AH-Vest (JSE: AHL) will be delisted from the JSE on 26 August. That’s more than fine, as this company should’ve been gone a long time ago – it was way too small to be listed.

Ghost Bites (Adcock Ingram | Gold Fields | Grindrod | Hulamin | MTN Zakhele Futhi)

Adcock Ingram could delist later this year if the Natco Pharma deal goes through (JSE: AIP)

The latest full-year numbers might be the last ones we see

Adcock Ingram has released results for the year to June 2025. They weren’t exactly a thrilling read, with turnover up 1% as pricing more than made up for a 3.1% decline in volumes. Gross margin suffered a slight dip and operating expenses increased by 2%, so that was enough to drive a 4% decline in trading profit.

The positive impact of equity accounted earnings further down the income statement took HEPS into the green, albeit with growth of just 1%. The dividend increased by 2% to 280 cents, a modest payout ratio in the context of HEPS at 626 cents.

If you dig deeper, the Prescription segment is where things really went wrong. Turnover was down 3% and trading profit fell by a nasty 25%, showing just how much operating leverage you’ll find in that part of the business. The best performing segment was Consumer, with both turnover and trading profit up 6% – and thus no operating leverage in sight.

The circular for the Natco Pharma deal will be posted in September and if all goes well, Adcock Ingram expects to delist by November this year. In case you’re wondering why Natco pulled the trigger on this uninspiring set of numbers, it’s worth highlighting that HEPS in the second half of the year was a whopping 36% higher than in the first half, driven by a 7% increase in turnover and 30% jump in trading profit.

The full-year numbers may have been weak, but the momentum is strong.


Gold Fields is a gold mine in every sense of the words (JSE: GFI)

Production increased at exactly the right time

The gold price has been very kind to the gold sector in recent times, boosted by global monetary policy that is seen by the market as highly inflationary. That’s happy news for gold bugs, but the mines can only take full advantage of this environment if they get the basics right: in other words, if they get the stuff out the ground efficiently.

In the six months to June, Gold Fields increased its production by 24% and they are on track to meet guidance for the year. So, they’ve kept up their side of the bargain with investors. The swing in free cash flow is quite something to behold, from an outflow of $58 million in the comparable period to an inflow of $952 million!

The dividend isn’t as volatile as free cash flow, as the latter is impacted by the exact timing of capex and the former is deliberately smoothed out. This is why the dividend is up by “only” 133% – still a fantastic outcome for investors.

Although all-in sustaining costs (AISC) fell by 4% year-on-year, Gold Fields expects to do better and they believe that they can meet full-year guidance on this key metric. They came in at $1,682/oz for the interim period vs. full-year guidance of $1,500/oz – $1,650/oz.

With net debt to EBITDA of 0.37x, the balance sheet is in exceptional shape. They just need to keep delivering on the opportunity that the gold market is presenting them.


The Port and Terminals segment boosted Grindrod’s interim earnings (JSE: GND)

Can they unlock better numbers in Logistics going forwards?

Grindrod has released interim earnings for the six months to June. The period got off to a dicey start, with weak volumes at the terminals in the first quarter. There was substantial improvement in the second quarter, which did enough to move the overall performance into the green.

You need to be quite careful in interpreting Grindrod’s numbers. There were major corporate actions in this period, like the acquisition of the remaining 35% in the Matola terminal in May and the exit of the KZN property and Marine Fuels businesses. This is why Grindrod reports headline earnings from core operations, which came in flat year-on-year.

Once you include the non-core stuff, you get to a 23% increase in HEPS. I would focus on the core earnings instead, as further evidenced by the interim dividend being flat year-on-year (and therefore in line with core HEPS).

Shareholders are at least being rewarded for the disposals though, with Grindrod declaring a special dividend of 32.3 cents per share. For context, that’s bigger than the interim dividend at 23 cents per share!

If we look deeper into the numbers, we find that port volumes had their first wobbly in recent years, with the pressure coming from the ports other than Matola:

Despite the drop in volumes and the 5% decrease in revenue in Port and Terminals, EBITDA jumped by 13% as EBITDA margin improved from 33% to 40%. Although normalisation adjustments blunt that move to an improvement from 33% to 36%, the point is that the business was more profitable and grew its headline earnings by 12.6%. Return on equity fell from 26% to 18% though, so keep an eye on that.

Logistics, on the other hand, suffered an 11% drop in revenue and a 19% decrease in EBITDA. Normalised EBITDA margin dipped from 27% to 26%. Headline earnings fell by over 21% and return on equity suffered a substantial drop from 21% to 9%.

Grindrod has some major projects to bed down, with the Matola terminal acquisition as the obvious area of focus. On the Logistics side, they are working to improve the rail business that experienced low utilisation of rolling stock, accompanied by a decrease in margins in road transportation where competition is heavy.

CEO Xolani Mbambo’s time with the group is drawing to a close, with the interesting choice to move across to Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO) as CFO. Although that may sound like a step backwards, Kumba’s market cap is around 9x higher than Grindrod, so the size of the prize is much larger. Grindrod is still searching for a successor for Mbambo, with his time at the company due to end in December 2025.


Hulamin’s latest numbers are awful (JSE: HLM)

The share price has lost nearly a third of its value this year

Hulamin is having a tough time out there. The benefit of higher sales volumes in the first half of the year was more than offset by the impact of pricing pressure in the local market, a stronger rand (which hurts our exporters) and higher energy costs.

The company is making significant changes, like the wind-down of the Containers division and the plans to sell the Extrusions business, with negotiations currently in progress for that disposal. The silver lining at the moment is the successful commissioning of the wide canbody expansion project, although the returns from that project will ultimately depend on market forces.

For the six months to June 2025, HEPS is down by between 78% and 82% – a nasty outcome indeed. If you accept Hulamin’s view of normalised HEPS, which adjusts for the metal price lag (which can swing wildly year-on-year), then the expected drop is between 42% and 54%.

In other words, whichever way you cut it, it’s been a really rough period. This explains why Hulamin’s share price is down 31% this year and 34% over 12 months. If anything, I’m surprised that the drop isn’t worse.


MTN Zakhele Futhi has fully exited its MTN position (JSE: MTNZF)

The residual net asset value per share is estimated to be R4.00

MTN Zakhele Futhi has been quite the story over the past 12 months. A year ago, the directors were staring down the barrel of a scheme that was set to mature with close to zero value in it, thanks to the immense pressure on the MTN (JSE: MTN) share price. But since then, the MTN share price has been on a trip to the moon, driven by vastly improved circumstances in Africa.

Thankfully, MTN stepped in last year and restructured things at MTN Zakhele Futhi in such a way that the scheme could continue for long enough to realise decent value. I’m not sure that anyone expected things to happen quite so quickly thereafter, as it only took a few months before the winding up began!

Thanks to the latest disposal of shares that raised R391 million after costs, MTN Zakhele Futhi is officially out of MTN. They are now just sitting on cash and they will need to go through the process of winding up the scheme. The estimated residual value per share is R4.00 and the current share price is R3.10, with the gap representing the time value of money (to some extent) and the lack of liquidity available to close the gap (the real reason, I think).

This comes after the payment of a R20 per share special distribution that was funded by the sale of most of the shares in early June via an accelerated bookbuild offering in the market at R128 per share. The current MTN share price is R156, showing just how much momentum the MTN share price has enjoyed this year – and how much was left on the table!

Yes, MTN Zakhele Futhi shareholders would’ve been better off if the directors had been more patient, but hindsight is always perfect. If you go back 12 months, I doubt anyone would’ve believed that they would eventually get roughly R24 per share out of MTN Zakhele Futhi, particularly as it was trading at around R9 per share at that stage!


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) is still buying up shares in the market, with the latest trades being worth R87k.
    • An associate of a senior exec of Investec (JSE: INP | JSE: INL) sold shares worth R63k.
  • RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) released more details on the change of directors in Atterbury Property, which saw RMB Holdings CEO Brian Roberts removed from the board of the operating company in that group. The backstory to this is that RMB Holdings is trying to realise value from that asset, a strategy which is at odds with the wishes of the controlling shareholders in Atterbury. This seems to be the reason why Roberts was removed. This entire situation is a cautionary tale about the danger of having a lot of money tied up in non-controlling stakes – it’s all fun and games while everyone agrees, but there’s no guarantee of that being the case forever. If you would like to the read the rather interesting transcript of Roberts’ presentation to Atterbury Property shareholders, you’ll find it here.
  • There’s an unexpected change to the board at RH Bophelo (JSE: RHB), with Bojane Segooa stepping down as director and chairperson of the audit and risk committee. The reason I know this was a surprise is that the announcement was made on the day of the AGM and the resolutions dealing with her reappointment were therefore withdrawn.

Note: Ghost Bites is my journal of each day’s news on SENS. It reflects my own opinions and analysis and should only be one part of your research process. Nothing you read here is financial advice. E&OE. Disclaimer.

The next space race is all in our heads

The next frontier isn’t space or AI – it’s the human brain. And it looks like we’re strapping in chips before we’ve even read the user manual.

I heard a joke about 3D printers a while ago, where the punchline poked fun at the fact that humanity was dabbling with 3D printing technology when we clearly hadn’t mastered regular printing yet. As someone who (once upon a time) had to put up with the whims and temper tantrums of an office printer, I chuckled at the accuracy of this joke.

What is it about our species that makes us want to run before we’ve really gotten the hang of walking? I thought about this question earlier in this week, when I read about the new “space race” unfolding between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.

If you have no idea what I’m referring to, then allow me to fill you in: Sam Altman, co-founder of OpenAI, is preparing to back Merge Labs, a new brain-computer interface (BCI) startup reportedly raising $250 million at an $850 million valuation. A big slice of that funding is expected to come from OpenAI’s ventures arm, meaning the same company that gave the world ChatGPT now wants to sink its hooks (quite literally) into the human brain.

If that sounds vaguely familiar, it’s because Altman’s old sparring partner, Elon Musk, is already making waves in this space. Musk’s company Neuralink recently raised more than $600 million and is in the middle of human trials, with paralyzed patients reportedly using brain implants to control cursors and play chess with their minds.

On paper, this all sounds like progress, right?

“The singularity”.

“The future of humanity”.

Pick your buzzword. But here’s the problem: we’re strapping neural chips to our heads when we don’t even really know how our heads work yet.

A race with no finish line

Altman vs. Musk is often framed as a tech soap opera. The two worked together on OpenAI, then Musk left in 2018 in a storm of clashing egos and now they seem locked in an innovation arms race. But this isn’t Grok vs. ChatGPT anymore. This time, the battleground isn’t cars or rockets or code. It’s us.

Musk’s Neuralink is already tinkering with human brains, albeit under the watchful eye of the FDA. Its first volunteer, a quadriplegic man named Noland Arbaugh, made headlines in early 2024 when he used Neuralink’s “Telepathy” implant to move a cursor and play online chess. It was the stuff of science fiction novels, until the Wall Street Journal revealed in an update that 85% of the implant’s threads had detached a few months after insertion, as Arbaugh’s brain shifted more than engineers expected. The FDA signed off on fixes, and a second patient, codenamed “Alex”, has since been implanted.

Even so, this is early-stage, high-stakes surgery. We’re talking lithium batteries in your skull, with wires thinner than a hair running through tissue we barely understand. If it sounds messy, that’s because it is.

The brain is not an iPhone

Tech culture thrives on iteration. Build it, break it, ship the update has long been the mantra. That methodology works fine for a rideshare app. But it’s potentially catastrophic when the test subject is the most complex biological structure in the known universe.

When asked how much we know about the human brain, Christof Koch, Chief Scientist and President of the Allen Institute for Brain Science, will readily tell you that we don’t even fully understand the 300 neurons that make up the brain of a worm. Compare that to the 80 to 100 billion neurons inside a human brain. 

We can’t explain how emotions form or what their exact purpose is. We can’t explain what causes a mental illness like schizophrenia, or why some medications seem to lessen its symptoms (through trial and error we’ve established that certain kinds of medication work, but we don’t know why they work). And we definitely can’t explain consciousness, the very thing these tech giants want to “merge” with machines.

Memory? Sleep? As it turns out, we can’t really explain those either.

The memory problem

When you learn something new – say, a person’s name – your brain undergoes a physical change. Synapses strengthen or weaken, proteins are synthesized, and new neural pathways begin to form. In theory, these molecular and structural shifts are what transform experience into memory. In practice, no one fully understands the details. 

Neuroscientists can track activity at the level of single neurons or entire brain regions, but the precise chain of events that turns fleeting experience into stored knowledge remains one of the great mysteries of biology. Sometimes we memorise things consciously, other times memories are created without our consent. Some things we wish we could remember better; other things we can’t forget even if we want to.

Retrieval is even more puzzling. Ask yourself whether you know someone’s name and the answer often arrives instantly, without conscious effort. That speed and accuracy suggest the brain has an extraordinarily efficient indexing system. Yet no current theory explains how billions of neurons can search, locate, and reconstruct a memory in less than a second. 

Each time a memory is accessed, it becomes malleable and open to alteration before being “saved” again. Imagine that you are with a friend and you discuss a shared experience from your childhood. If your friend adds a detail from the experience that you didn’t know before, it will now be included in the memory when you recall it again. This phenomenon, known as reconsolidation, has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments where memories could be weakened, erased, or chemically blocked during the window of recall. So what seems like a simple act of remembering is, in reality, an opportunity for rewriting.

The sleep mystery

You and I spend roughly a third of our lives asleep. Newborns run at double that, spending nearly 16 hours a day in slumber. Dolphins and some birds sleep with just one hemisphere at a time, keeping half the brain awake while the other rests. The evolutionary pattern is universal: all complex animals need sleep. And yet, despite decades of study, science still doesn’t fully understand why.

Several leading theories have emerged, none of them mutually exclusive. One argues that sleep is restorative, allowing the body to conserve energy and repair tissue. Another suggests it acts as a simulation engine, letting the brain rehearse scenarios like problem-solving or threat responses before facing them in waking life. The most widely supported hypothesis is that sleep is central to memory and learning. During certain phases of sleep, neural connections thought to encode memories are strengthened, while irrelevant or redundant information is pruned away. In this view, sleep is not passive rest but active recalibration, making room for the next day’s flood of sensory input.

But definitive proof to back up these theories remains elusive, and the pile of questions remains high. Why eight hours? Why specific cycles of REM and non-REM? Why does a lack of sleep lead not just to fatigue, but to cognitive breakdown, hallucinations, and in extreme cases, death? What happens to our consciousness when we sleep, and how or why do we dream? These questions remain unresolved.

The mirage of safety

Defenders of brain-computer interfaces argue that regulation will keep us safe. After all, the FDA is already in play, ethics committees exist, and human trials are heavily monitored.

And yet, while Neuralink’s first FDA application was rejected due to “major safety concerns”,  approval was given anyway, less than a year later. Investigations into the treatment of test animals at Neuralink labs were halted when 20 FDA investigators were fired by Donald Trump in February this year – coincidentally around the time that Elon Musk started spending a lot of time around the Oval Office. Noland Arbaugh’s implant malfunction didn’t end the program; instead, it triggered a patch-and-proceed mentality. Altman’s Merge Labs is still in fundraising mode, but the sheer flow of capital – hundreds of millions at a time – suggests the market isn’t waiting for the science to catch up.

The futurist’s dream is the singularity; a state where human and machine intelligence blur into one. For Musk, it’s insurance against AI outpacing us. For Altman, it’s a logical extension of OpenAI’s mission – if language models already shape how we think, why not plug them directly into thought itself?

But that dream skips over the messy middle: the inconvenient truth that after almost a century of studying the brain, we’re no closer to knowing what we’re actually messing with.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

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