Naspers and Prosus suffer from jitters around Tencent (JSE: NPN | JSE: PRX)
Although there’s no related SENS announcement, this is very important news
Despite all the capital that has been plowed into investments beyond Tencent, the reality is that the Naspers and Prosus valuation is still largely tied to the fortunes of the Chinese giant that made those groups so wealthy in the first place. This means that geopolitical risks are never far away, particularly as US – China relations can be dicey at the best of times. Under Trump, this is likely to worsen.
The latest news is that the US Department of Defense has designated Tencent as a “military company operating in the US” – and that’s not good. In theory, this could lead to Tencent not being able to have its securities traded in the US, where they currently trade on an over-the-counter basis. The bigger issue for South African investors is the extent to which this might lead to international investors trying to get out of Prosus and Naspers, as a sudden sell-off of shares always leads to a sharp drop in price.
Naspers closed over 10% lower for the day, while Prosus fell down 8.4%. Some may see this as an opportunity, as the designation of Tencent as a military company seems very odd. Also, there are examples of companies that have been removed from this list, so we’ve seen this movie before with other Chinese companies. This would then support a rebound in the valuation.
Given all the good work that I’ve seen from new Naspers/Prosus CEO Fabricio Bloisi, I was very tempted by this and I pulled the trigger in the late afternoon. Beyond the capital flows and potential shock reactions, it’s not obvious how this designation impacts Tencent’s business which is focused on China. I’m therefore hoping that the market has dished out a little gift here, although my position sizing was such that I can put in more if it suffers another major sell-off. This is an important technique when buying into an uncertain dip.
Schroder European Real Estate sells an asset in Germany (JSE: SCD)
This is a mature asset with limited scope for further improvement
When it comes to property, some funds talk about “asset management opportunities” as an umbrella term for the initiatives that increase the value of a property. The sky is the limit here obviously, with all kinds of potential projects ranging from improving the parking through to creating better flow of people through the mall.
The end goal is always the same: improve the rental and tenant profile and get a better valuation yield on the property, which equates to a higher value. When this is achieved, it’s usually time to sell the property to someone looking for a more passive investment. The proceeds can then be recycled into new asset management opportunities.
Schroder European Real Estate is the latest example of this, selling a grocery-anchored mall in Frankfurt, Germany for €11.8 million. This is in line with the September 2024 valuation, so that is encouraging for shareholders who need to believe in the company’s disclosed net asset value.
Don’t get too excited about the returns that were achieved here: Schroder bought the property in April 2016 for €11 million. That’s a total capital return of a rather paltry 7.3% over nearly 9 years – in addition to the rentals earned, of course!
Germany simply hasn’t been a great story in recent years.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
Acting through Titan Fincap Solutions, Dr Christo Wiese has bought a substantial R54 million worth of Brait exchangeable bonds. The bonds specifically trade under the ticker JSE: BIHLEB and should not be confused with the ordinary shares (JSE: BAT).
The company secretary of Datatec (JSE: DTC) sold shares worth R14.7 million.
The company secretary of Redefine Properties (JSE: RDF) sold shares worth R308k. Although this was related to a share award, the announcement isn’t explicit on whether this was purely to cover taxes.
A director of a subsidiary of Capital Appreciation (JSE: CTA) sold share awards worth R32k. There’s no indication of whether this is only the taxable portion, so I must assume that it isn’t.
At Trustco’s (JSE: TTO) general meeting, shareholders approved the resolutions for the Legal Shield Holdings transaction.
Vunani (JSE: VUN) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to the potential disposal of a minority interest in a subsidiary. Negotiations are still underway, so the cautionary has been renewed.
A director and member of the audit and risk committee of Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has decided not to stand for re-election at the next AGM. It seems to be quite a sudden decision and no reason has been given.
Acsion Limited (JSE: ACS) is moving its listing to the general segment of the main board of the JSE, following in the footsteps of a bunch of small- and mid-caps that did the same thing last year in search of a less onerous regulatory framework.
Catastrophe at ArcelorMittal – the Longs business is being shut down (JSE: ACL)
The impact on areas like Newcastle and Vereeniging will be severe
Remember when the ArcelorMittal share price jumped based on the announcement of stimulus in China? The share price has done crazier things than a heart monitor strapped to someone on a rollercoaster, as you can see below:
Those who made money in the chaos of October were very lucky and those with short positions were hammered. Anyone who was brave enough to be short in the aftermath of that squeeze has now made money from a sudden 31% drop in the price as the news broke of the Longs business finally being shut down.
The effect of this goes far beyond the share price. Many lives are being impacted here in economically vulnerable areas where alternative employment is hard to come by. There are 3,500 direct and indirect jobs that may be affected, with knock-on impacts for those households and the businesses that service them. ArcelorMittal has been warning for a while that this day could come, with efforts throughout 2024 to try and save as many jobs as possible and create a sustainable future for the business. Despite the efforts, including from government, the structural problems in the industry and an ongoing deterioration in global conditions have now made it necessary for ArcelorMittal to pull the plug.
Things will move quickly now, with the wind-down of production expected to be complete in the first quarter of this year. There are nuances of course, like an expected continuation of Newcastle’s coke-making operations. Overall, there is no time to waste, as the muted market response to Chinese stimulus has seen steel prices return to low levels, punished by the extent of Chinese exports that have been flooding global markets. There’s a shocking statistic that ArcelorMittal includes in the announcement to drive the point home: since 2018, steel exports from South Africa are down 40% and imports are up 50%!
Against this backdrop, it doesn’t sound so bad that ArcelorMittal’s revenue is expected to be down “only” 5% in 2024 vs. 2023. The problem is that with such a high fixed cost structure (i.e. the level of operating leverage in the group), this revenue drop is a financial disaster that leads to huge losses. You know the saying of revenue dropping to the bottom line? Well, the loss of revenue also drops to the bottom line in a business like this – just in the other direction.
Although this isn’t reflective of the cash charges, it’s worth noting that the expected cost of asset impairments, wind down and severance charges is R2.7 billion. They don’t give cash guidance in terms of the costs, but ArcelorMittal is obviously working with lenders to ensure that the balance sheet is sustainable going forward.
Note that the words “potential recapitalisation” have reared their ugly heads. This usually means that a rights issue could be coming down the line, if equity holders need to chip in to keep the bankers happy.
With the headline loss per share expected to worsen from R1.70 per share to between R4.06 and R4.41 per share, ArcelorMittal has become an even riskier play. It’s been speculative for a long time now and is a reminder of how dangerous these trades (otherwise known as gambles) can be.
Here’s a chart that may truly shock you:
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
A director of PBT Group (JSE: PBG) bought shares worth R420k.
There’s an awkward start at Cilo Cybin Holdings (JSE: CCC), where results for the six months to September 2024 have suffered an “unforeseen” delay and will only be released on 14 January.
Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) has withdrawn the cautionary announcement related to business rescue proceedings at Keaton Mining. This is because agreements with suppliers and a management agreement in terms of the section 155 compromise proposal have been finalised, so production at Vanggatfontein has recommenced.
A couple of Powerfleet’s (JSE: PWR) subsidiaries increased their facility with a bank from $10 million to $20 million. Although this isn’t exactly big news, it shows that the balance sheets of those entities must be in decent shape if banks are willing to increase facilities.
The chairman of Oando (JSE: OAO), whose official title is very colourful (His Royal Majesty, Oba Adedotun Gbadebo, CFR, the Alake of Egbalan), has stepped down as chairman and retired as a board member. The new chairman is Mr. Ademola Akinrele, SAN – a far less dramatic business card.
Sail Mining Group (JSE: SGP) has withdrawn the cautionary announcement related to a subsidiary of the group. Although this technically means that “shareholders don’t need to exercise caution” when trading in the shares, the challenge is that the shares are still suspended from trading!
Listen to the podcast to get the details on these insights from December 2024:
Is Italtile’s share price a Christmas miracle?
Bloisi’s first acquisition at the helm of Prosus is a fascinating one in Latin America
Renergen was the most interesting announcement in the dead week between Christmas and the new year, revealing yet another risk for the business
Metair’s selling price for the Turkish business has all but evaporated
Bell’s share price may prove to be a cautionary tale about greed, with regret surely kicking in for those who voted against the scheme at R53 per share
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Forvis Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Forvis Mazars website for more information.
Listen to the podcast here:
Transcript:
1. Italtile’s share price: a Christmas miracle?
If you’re still looking for a Christmas miracle, then look no further than the Italtile share price. At this stage, I’m more likely to believe in Santa again than in the reasons why this stock is trading at a close to 52-week highs.
Management has given the market nothing but an honest appraisal of the state of play in the manufacturing side of the business – and it’s not good, as South Africa has an overcapacity of tile manufacturers, leading to revenue in that part of the business dropping by a further 1.6% between 1 July and 30 November. That’s after it fell 5.9% in the base period, so that’s particularly ugly over two years.
In director dealings announcements in the past few months, directors have been selling shares, so there’s another strong bear indicator. And if you’re hoping that the retail sales side will give you something to hang onto, then you would need to be happy with just 2.2% growth in system-wide sales.
I can only imagine that investors are hoping for interest rates to drop further and the two-pot system to filter through into home improvement projects. I would remind you at this point that hope is not a strategy.
I’m long Cashbuild in this sector and if you draw a 1-year chart, you’ll see that Cashbuild caught up the performance differential in December very nicely against Italtile:
If Italtile was more liquid, this would be quite the fun pairs trade I think, with my view being long Cashbuild and short Italtile. Instead, I just have to be content with my long Cashbuild position, something that I’m still happy with as we head into 2025 because they do not have a manufacturing side to their business.
As for Italtile, don’t be surprised if there’s a big shock in the market when results are released in March. You certainly can’t claim that management didn’t warn you, all while the share price is close to 52-week highs. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
2. Bloisi pulls the trigger on Despegar for Prosus
Just before Christmas, Prosus announced the acquisition of Despegar in Latin America. Now, this is particularly interesting as recently appointed CEO Fabricio Bloisi has tons of experience in that region. That’s where he built iFood, a company that he subsequently sold to Prosus.
This hardcore experience as a successful founder and scaler of businesses is exactly why I’m a fan of Bloisi. It’s not just me – the Prosus share price is up 32% in the past year:
Now, we need to avoid making the mistake that people make all the time in Africa, which is assuming that a continent is actually just one big country. iFood was built in Brazil and Despegar was founded in Argentina. Importantly though, Despegar has scaled across Latin America, so I do think that Bloisi’s Brazilian expertise (and certainly his Latin American network) is helpful here in assessing this deal.
Either way, Bloisi clearly liked what he saw and Prosus is pulling the trigger on a $1.7 billion acquisition for what is described as a leading online travel agency. Weirdly, it suddenly sounds less exciting, doesn’t it? As you imagine Flight Centre at scale and shake your head, consider how valuable it is to have higher income South American consumers constantly on your platform, particularly in a region where the likes of Mercado Libre have shown us how powerful a platform can be.
If you want to be depressed about what Takealot has built vs. what can be built, just take a look at Mercado Libre’s story. Perhaps some of that DNA is in Despegar as well?
In terms of pricing for the deal, Prosus is paying a revenue multiple of just over 2.4x and that’s after offering a 34% premium to the 90-day VWAP (Despegar is listed). I think that’s a reasonable price for a platform in a high growth market. Let’s see how this plays out. This is Bloisi’s first big acquisition in charge and the market will hold him accountable for it.
3. Renergen: here’s another risk to add to the list
Between Christmas and the New Year, Renergen was the only announcement that I felt was particularly interesting. The company’s fight with Springbok Solar is heading to court in February 2025 for an interdict application. This really does seem like a bit of a ridiculous issue right now where someone is behaving badly. Renergen certainly wants us to believe that it is Springbok Solar, and once it gets to court, we will find out for sure.
In the meantime, Renergen needs to run their business and get access to more money for near-term liquidity. They hope to conclude negotiations in the first quarter of 2025 to get their hands on that cash.
Of course, what would help tremendously is if helium production was going smoothly. The latest headache (and yes there is another one) in this regard is that there wasn’t a helium iso container available in South Africa for a direct fill, so there’s yet another risk that you can add to your bear case for this business model. Renergen tried to mitigate this using an onsite storage container and although there were some challenges, they reckon they’ve got a solution now.
The teething issues continue, the company needs money on a regular basis and they have an awkward battle in court on the horizon. Things are never boring at Renergen, that’s for sure.
With the share price down 53% in the past 12 months and recently making new 52-week lows, they desperately need an improvement in momentum and the market will watch each of these issues very closely.
4. Metair is anything but a Turkish Delight
I finish off with cautionary tales and there are two of them. They are both in the industrials space and they are both strong reminders about risk in the markets, something you should always keep in mind.
The first is Metair, where the amount of money they are getting out of Turkey just kept getting smaller and smaller – and then even smaller! In fact, it’s now down to just $1 million, with the potential for it to be $2 million depending on how things play out as the deal closes. When the deal was first announced in September, which is just a few months ago, the price on the table was $110 million! They talked about the price being subject to customary adjustments for working capital and net debt.
Now, such adjustments are indeed customary, because as the balance sheet evolves every single day, you’re not sure how it will look when the deal closes and you make an adjustment at the time – nothing unusual. But what isn’t customary is the rate at which the Turkish business was absolutely obliterating its balance sheet. This is why the purchase price basically disappeared into nothingness. It’s also why Metair took steps to accelerate the deal, before they found themselves in a position where they were paying someone to carry the dead business away.
Owning businesses in faraway lands can be very risky, especially in countries where they have major macroeconomic concerns. With Metair’s share price down 43% in the past 12 months, at least that particular nightmare is behind them. If they can just have a bit of positive luck this year, something they’ve seen very little of recently, perhaps the share price chart can start heading the other way.
5. Is regret kicking in yet for Bell Equipment shareholders?
The second and final cautionary tale is Bell Equipment, where I am genuinely concerned about where this ends for the minority shareholders who wanted to accept the take-private deal and weren’t able to because the scheme failed.
The price on the table was R53 per share. Currently, it’s trading at just over R40 – well down from there!
An updated trading statement in December gave the unfortunate news that HEPS is expected to be at least 40% lower for the year. This suggests HEPS of up to 478 cents and quite possibly lower. The offer price of R53 would’ve been a forward earnings multiple of 11.1x based on that HEPS number. As HEPS could come in lower, the multiple might have been higher.
Will shareholders who didn’t vote in favour of the scheme end up kicking themselves? Only time will tell of course, but there’s got to be some kind of lesson in here about greed. Even if Bell does get back to those share price levels at some point, the mining cycle will need to play out accordingly and that could take years.
The old adage in the markets is worth remembering as we head into a new year of opportunity: the bulls make money, the bears make money and the pigs get slaughtered.
In 2025, don’t be a pig! Be a bull, be a bear, learn, be as consistent as you can – and most of all, join me for another fun year in the markets!
The future is fixable – at least, that’s what consumers would like to see. Big businesses are still digging in their heels when it comes to open repairs, but new legislation may be increasing pressure soon.
For as long as people have been making things, they’ve also been finding ways to sell us the next version of those things. Take Apple, for example. In the 17 years since the first iPhone launched in 2007, the company has released 29 versions of their flagship smartphone. In late 2017, iPhone users discovered thatolder models were slowing down after iOS updates, sparking accusations that Apple was deliberately throttling performance to drive sales of new phones.
Apple denied this (of course), explaining that the feature was designed to prevent unexpected shutdowns by managing the strain on degraded lithium-ion batteries. To address the backlash, they introduced an iOS update allowing users to disable the throttling feature (though they advised against it) and launched a battery replacement programme, reducing the service cost from $79 to $29 for six months. The catch? Batteries could still only be bought and installed at Apple stores, ensuring that Apple retained its monopoly over every phase of the iPhone consumer’s journey.
From a business perspective, this seems like a great strategy – especially if your business makes expensive goods that could last a long time before needing to be replaced. But how long will cash-strapped, conscious consumers continue to put up with planned obsolescence? And will the growing repair economy (and increasing right to repair legislation) force businesses to rethink their ways?
Made to replace
Though there is no evidence that he was the first to come up with this idea, one of the most influential players in the quick-replacement game was Alfred P. Sloan, an executive at General Motors way back in the 1920s. Alfred didn’t just embrace obsolescence: he turned it into a finely tuned business strategy. Under Sloan’s leadership, GM decided that the best way to keep customers coming back wasn’t just making reliable cars but by making them feel outdated within a year or two. By introducing annual updates to car models, with tweaks to style, features, or performance, GM created a perpetual cycle of desire. Consumers weren’t just buying transportation; they were an antidote to the fear of falling behind.
By constantly dangling the “next big thing” in front of consumers, GM not only drove up sales but reshaped the American car market entirely. Competitor Ford, which had built its empire on the rock-solid dependability and affordability of the Model T, suddenly found itself playing catch-up. Consumers who had once been content with a car that “just worked” were now being wooed by sleeker designs, brighter colors, and features they didn’t even know they needed. GM’s strategy proved so effective that by the 1930s, it had overtaken Ford as the largest automaker in the United States, cementing planned obsolescence as not just a marketing tactic but a cornerstone of modern capitalism.
Ford may have been in the backseat when it came to releasing new models, but they owned the after-sales journey. Back in the 1910s, Ford created a network of certified dealerships and service centers, encouraging customers to use genuine Ford parts rather than turning to independent mechanics or aftermarket suppliers. To tighten control further, Ford pushed for standardised pricing, enforcing flat fees for repairs across their network. It was a win for Ford, but a major headache for small repair shops, which struggled to keep up with constantly changing parts, most of which were exclusively provided to Ford service and repair centres.
In 1947, one enterprising business owner had the bright idea of refurbishing old spark plugs and reselling them. The problem was that he was selling them under a trademarked brand name, which landed him in legal hot water. This case, Champion Spark Plug Co. v. Sanders, would go on to shape the rules for how repaired or refurbished goods could be sold. While the business owner was rapped on the knuckles for copyright infringement, the court’s decision upheld the right to resell repaired or refurbished items, as long as they were clearly labeled to avoid misleading consumers. This ruling laid the groundwork for modern Federal Trade Commission guidelines on resale practices.
Let the people repair
In the early 2000s, the automotive industry successfully shut down the first attempt to pass a right-to-repair bill tailored to its sector. It was a decisive win for car manufacturers, who had little interest in making repairs easier for anyone outside their authorised networks. They pointed to the National Automotive Service Task Force (NASTF), an industry-backed organisation that launched an online directory to provide access to manufacturer information and tools. Progress, right? Not so fast. A study by the Terrance Group revealed that, despite the NASTF, nearly 59% of independent repair shops were still struggling to get hold of diagnostic tools and parts. In short, the directory was more PR than practical help.
Meanwhile, cars themselves were becoming harder to fix. As technology continued to evolve, the share of electronic components in cars skyrocketed, from just 5% in the 1970s to over 22% by 2000. Hybrid cars, while revolutionary, made things even trickier. They required specialised tools and software that manufacturers shared only with their authorised repair services. Independent mechanics were increasingly boxed out, left grappling with limited resources while trying to stay relevant in an industry moving faster than they could catch up.
Despite these challenges, the push for a right to repair didn’t fade. Initially driven by automotive consumer protection agencies and after-sales service providers, the movement soon crossed over into other industries. As gadgets like smartphones and computers became ubiquitous, the demand for repairability gained even more momentum. Even farmers joined the fray, fighting for the ability to fix their increasingly tech-heavy equipment without paying steep fees to manufacturers. Climate change activists weren’t far behind, arguing that repairing products rather than replacing them could help curb the growing e-waste crisis.
What started as a niche debate in the auto industry became a global movement, challenging the idea that manufacturers should hold a monopoly on repair. But the fight was (and still is) far from over.
A long way to go – but some progress on the way
In the United States, 20 states are currently considering legislation aimed at giving consumers more power to fix their stuff. The scope varies – some bills focus on everyday gadgets, while others target farm equipment and cars. Unsurprisingly, the pushback from big players like Apple, Microsoft, and Dyson has been fierce, with lawsuits keeping much of this legislation tied up in courts for years.
Across the Atlantic, the European Union has taken a more decisive approach. A new EU directive now mandates manufacturers to design products with sustainability in mind. Think less waste, lower energy consumption, and easier repairs. Crucially, they’re also required to guarantee spare parts for up to 10 years for products like white goods and lighting. It’s all part of the EU’s broader mission to create a sustainable, circular economy where products are reused, not just tossed away. Down in Australia, the Bower Reuse & Repair Centre is leading the charge for similar reforms. They argue that a truly sustainable future hinges on embracing a circular economy, and at the heart of that is the right to repair.
South Africa may be playing catch-up with the EU when it comes to repairing consumer electronics, but the motoring industry has seen meaningful progress on the right-to-repair front. Thanks to persistent advocacy by the local chapter of the Right to Repair Campaign, the Competition Commission introduced new guidelines in July 2021. These rules are designed to shake up the vehicle repair industry and give consumers more options. Whether you want to take your car to an independent mechanic or roll up your sleeves and handle the repairs yourself, these guidelines aim to make it easier (and fairer) for you to do just that.
With mounting support from consumers, independent repairers, and environmental advocates, the repair economy is poised to reshape how we think about ownership and consumption. The question now is whether industries will adapt willingly or continue to resist as the demand for repairable, sustainable products becomes impossible to ignore.
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.
The losses at Accelerate have accelerated (JSE: APF)
At least interest costs have come down thanks to capital raising efforts
Accelerate Property Fund is in a bad space. They’ve had to dispose of assets and raise R200 million through a rights issue to give some support to the balance sheet, yet the loan-to-value ratio has improved by just 100 basis points to 46.7%.
For the six months to September 2024, the headline loss per share worsened substantially from 2 cents to 6.32 cents. This is despite a reduction in finance costs based on the capital raising activities and resultant decrease in debt.
At the moment, lenders are still refinancing the debt – mainly because they believe that they can keep squeezing juicy amounts of interest out of this thing. At least the banks are getting something, as equity holders can’t expect much when you see underlying metrics like a huge vacancy rate of 17.9% at Fourways Mall. Accelerate is working with Flanagan and Gerard as well as the Moolman Group to try and improve things there, but there have been difficulties in getting a contract implemented.
Notably, the BMW Fourways building suffered a negative reversion of 25% after the renewal of a ten-year lease, showing exactly what has happened in the Joburg property market (and the automotive sector) in the past decade. This contributed to the total negative reversion of 7% for the fund.
As should be obvious by now, there is no dividend for shareholders. The share price is down 29% year-to-date.
Dezemba weirdness at AECI (JSE: AFE)
The CFO is on her way out, practically immediately
‘Tis the season for weird SENS announcements and AECI hasn’t disappointed, with news that CFO Rochelle Gabriels is stepping down on “mutually agreed terms” with effect from 31 December 2024.
Ian Kramer has been appointed as acting CFO. He is currently Senior Finance Advisor to the group – a rather odd title that makes it sound like he only has one foot in the door there.
No further details are available at this point. This is the kind of stuff that sets off alarm bells for investors.
Bell’s earnings are falling through the floor (JSE: BEL)
That rejected offer of R53 per share must be a cause of regret by now
When the Bell offer was made and a few activist investors fought hard for it to be higher, I feared at the time that people might live to regret not taking the R53 offer. The share price is currently at around R38 and an updated trading statement for the year ended December doesn’t give us much reason to believe that it will be heading higher from here.
The initial trading statement suggested that HEPS would be at least 25% lower for the year. Now, the company has guided that HEPS will be at least 40% down on last year. This implies HEPS of a maximum of 478 cents and possibly lower.
The take-private offer would’ve ended up being a forward multiple of at least 11.1x for a cyclical group with heavy exposure to the mining industry. Hindsight may be perfect, but there’s also that old story about how the pigs get slaughtered.
This isn’t a chart that I would like to own:
Cilo Cybin: one of the highest valuation multiples you’ll ever see (JSE: CCC)
You might want to be sitting down for this one
Cilo Cybin is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that was set up to facilitate the acquisition of Cilo Cybin Pharmaceutical, a private company that was started in 2018 to focus on the medical cannabis industry. Despite a lot of very impressive paragraphs about their facilities, the net asset value was -R18.7 million as at March 2024 and the loss after tax was R5.9 million.
No matter, because in cannabis startup land, this doesn’t stop the business from being sold to the SPAC for R845 million. And no, there isn’t a missing decimal there. You’ll need to give me something a lot stronger than medical cannabis before I feel comfortable about that valuation.
For the six months to September 2024, things improved to a profit after tax of R13.6 million and a net asset value of R1.3 million. Clearly, the trajectory is strong and the valuation is based on immense growth and a hope that the multiple unwinds quickly. Many startups tend to forget the impact of competition and a slower growth curve as a business matures.
We will have to wait and see what happens here. Forgive me, but paying a 650x price/book multiple is somewhat outside of my comfort zone.
Gemfields takes drastic steps to navigate a difficult market (JSE: GML)
Mining is risky and the mining of pretty things is even riskier
As I wrote some months ago, the back-end of 2024 was absolutely critical for Gemfields. They have been on quite the capex spree, with more planned for 2025. At the same time, prices for emeralds and rubies haven’t really been playing ball, especially in the case of the green stones.
Things have now come to a head, with ongoing problems of oversupply in the emerald market leading to Gemfields taking the decision to suspend production for up to 6 months at Kagem Mining. They will focus on processing ore stockpiles at Kagem while the emerald market hopefully comes right. The problem is that if the Zambian competitor can somehow keep selling emeralds at a discount, then this could get very painful indeed.
The rubies aren’t free of issues either, with fewer premium rubies coming out of the ground in Mozambique recently and worries around civil unrest. Still, construction of the second ruby processing plant is a critical project and it remains on time and on budget, with planned completion by the end of H1 2025. The civil unrest is taking its toll though, with all non-essential capex in northern Mozambique suspended.
That’s not all, folks. They are “assessing strategic options” in respect of Fabergé, a luxury jewelery business that they frankly should’ve sold ages ago. They are also very keen to sell the gold project Nairoto Resources Limitada, going so far as to put contact details in the SENS in case anyone is interested!
Perhaps they should try Facebook Marketplace as well?
Somehow, despite this, the share price closed 10% up for the day. It’s down 44% year-to-date.
Prosus and Naspers deepens exposure to Latin America with the acquisition of Despegar (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)
The new CEO knows how the region works and I think it creates a great opportunity
We don’t see enough deals in Latin America by JSE-listed companies. Historically, local executives liked to create emigration opportunities by making acquisitions in places like the UK and Australia. These days, we at least see more of a tilt towards higher-growth markets in the developed world. Yet, for some reason, our execs are scared of other emerging markets despite navigating all the challenges that South Africa throws at them.
Aside from rare examples like Pepkor acquiring Avenida in Brazil a while ago, South Africans tend to limit their exposure to Latin America to watching football games.
Fabricio Bloisi is the man in charge these days at Prosus / Naspers and he knows the region intimately, having been born in Brazil and having built iFood there. So, when the group announces a deal in Latin America, you can be sure that there’s proper on-the-ground experience being applied.
Prosus is acquiring Despegar, Latin America’s leading online travel agency, for $1.7 billion. Now, this may sound like a business model from last century, but they understand platform businesses over in that part of the world, as evidenced by how developed a competitor like Mercado Libre has become. Prosus can find ways to cross-pollinate the various platforms in the group with different service offerings, with access to over 100 million customers in the region.
Despegar generated revenue of $706 million and EBITDA of $116 million in 2023. The deal has therefore been priced at a revenue multiple of just over 2.4x, representing a 34% premium to Despegar’s 90-day VWAP. In my view, that’s really not a bad price for a quality platform business.
Thungela invests further in Australia (JSE: TGA)
They will now have an effective 77.475% in Ensham
Thungela acquired an effective 62.475% in Ensham back in September 2023 in an effort to diversify exposure away from South Africa (and mainly Transnet, if we are honest). I can understand the appeal of a country with working infrastructure.
Although there were critics at the time, mainly because everyone just wanted Thungela to be a cash cow, the board was more interested in creating a group with reasonable risk exposures. Ensham has been a solid performer and is now contributing 35% of the group’s EBIT.
Thungela is now increasing its stake to an effective 77.475%, so that profit contribution can be expected to increase if the good times continue at Ensham and if things don’t materially improve in South Africa.
The structure is that Thungela holds 73.5% in Australian subsidiary Sungela Holdings, which in turn originally acquired 85% in Enham. The other 15% holder in Ensham will now sell to a different subsidiary (Thungela Resources Australia) which is 100% held by Thungela. In other words, the minority holder in Sungela Holdings isn’t getting any exposure to this additional 15%.
One of the benefits of this deal is that Thungela will look to deepen synergies with Ensham, particularly with the external direct shareholder in Ensham out of the way. This includes a desire to open up markets in Japan and Malaysia.
The deal is too small to be categorisable under JSE rules, so there are no further disclosures at the moment.
The PBT Group (JSE: PBG) scrip dividend received a reasonable amount of support in the end, allowing the group to retain more than half of the dividend in cash. The end result was a cash dividend payout of R13.1 million and an issuance of shares to the value of R14.9 million. I’ve included this note in this section as a number of directors elected the scrip dividend alternative and received shares instead of cash.
MAS plc (JSE: MSP) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding negotiations with Prime Kapital to acquire the 60% interest in PKM Development Limited. The company reckons that contracts should be concluded by the time that results for the six months to December 2024 are released.
Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) is still catching up on its financials, rather hilariously releasing a trading statement for the six months to November 2023 (not a typo) and then the results for that period on the same day. At least they made an operating profit in that period, although the numbers are so old that I’m not sure they are very useful.
Here’s another one catching up on financials: Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) has released results for the year ended December 2023. Again, not a typo. The company is currently a cash shell, so these results are literally pointless as they relate to assets that aren’t even owned anymore!
Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON) continues to make progress with the business rescue plan, with the latest update being the sale of the Zimbabwe business to the Vision consortium.
Aspen is bringing Eli Lilly’s Ozempic competitor to the local market (JSE: APN)
Will it prove to be as popular?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know that Ozempic took the world by storm. People want to lose weight and they want to do it in the quickest and most efficient way, usually without making lifestyle changes. Danish pharmaceutical group Novo Nordisk made an absolute fortune from Ozempic, but competitors are catching up.
Eli Lilly is one such competitor, with the Mounjaro drug (officially for diabetes, but let’s not pretend how this stuff really gets used in practice) becoming available in South Africa this month thanks to the distribution and promotion agreement with local pharmaceuticals group Aspen.
That deal was finalised in August 2023, so it hasn’t taken them long to bring in a big-hitter. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact this has on Aspen’s numbers.
Metair’s disposal of Mutlu in Turkey was brought forward (JSE: MTA)
And now they are getting even less than people thought
Based on Metair’s recent announcement of how little they are getting out of the Turkish business disposal after adjustments for recent losses, things on that side are clearly desperate. We now have further evidence of this reality, as the closing date for the deal was brought forward so that Mutlu has the best possible chance under new ownership.
This required a new financing agreement with a syndicate of Turkish banks to be concluded, so everyone had to move quickly here.
The sad news is that the selling price after adjustments is even lower, with Metair getting just $1 million out of the deal, with the potential for that to go up to $2 million depending on how the first 60 days go.
When businesses go wrong, they can go to zero far quicker than people like to admit.
Rex Trueform is acquiring 30% in Byte Orbit (JSE: RTO)
Just don’t rely on the SENS announcement to tell you what Byte Orbit actually does
It sounds a bit like a fancy toothbrush company, doesn’t it? Luckily, that’s not what Byte Orbit focuses on, although you would have a tough time deciphering anything useful from the wording of the SENS announcement:
“Established in 2003, Byte Orbit brings two decades of expertise in digital innovation, offering high-quality solutions through a full product lifecycle approach. Byte Orbit prioritises user-centric designs, leveraging deep insights into audiences, technologies, and markets. Through its investment in Byte Orbit, Rex Trueform aims to assist in leveraging future growth opportunities, exploring emerging markets, and integrating advanced technologies while enhancing Byte Orbit’s market presence through strategic partnerships.”
What in the ChatGPT is even going on there?
Thankfully, the Byte Orbit website is a lot clearer. The TL;DR is that this is a software company, so that makes it a more interesting deal than some of the property-focused stuff we’ve been seeing at Rex Trueform. They are particularly strong in financial services, with a number of top names as clients. For example, it looks like they did the Shyft app for Standard Bank.
Rex Trueform is acquiring 30.02% in the group for a total investment of R30 million. This takes the form of a subscription for 20.47% in shares for R18 million, as well as the acquisition of 9.55% from a majority shareholders for R12 million.
What protection does Rex Trueform have here? Well, there’s a profit warranty that if Byte Orbit achieves less than R40 million in profit after tax in aggregate for 2026 – 2028 (i.e. the total over three years), then Byte Orbit will issue a further 10% shareholding to Rex Trueform for nominal value.
Still, Rex Trueform is paying a massive valuation here. The net asset value of Byte Orbit is R16.4 million and profit after tax was R3.6 million. Rex Trueform has effectively paid R30 million for 30% of those profits (R1.08 million) and 30% of the net asset value after the share subscription (30% of R34.4 million i.e. R10.32 million).
That’s not far off the P/E multiple at which you can invest in the world’s leading technology companies on the Nasdaq. They are clearly expecting massive growth based on current profits vs. the profit warranty for 2026 – 2028, but Rex Trueform (and parent company African and Overseas Enterprises Limited) could still end up getting really hurt here unless there is a much more certain future for this business than they are letting on.
Sanlam will unlock R4.5 billion through the Allianz joint venture (JSE: SLM)
Allianz is executing its step-up option
Back in 2022, Sanlam first alerted the market to the happy news that a joint venture would be put in place with Allianz. The idea was to combine efforts in the rest of Africa, with each party contributing their existing operations to the joint venture.
In order to get the size right and ensure alignment in the end result, Allianz was given an option to increase its shareholding in the joint venture to 49% through a cash transaction. The step-up transaction is now taking place, with Sanlam Emerging Markets selling 8.59% of its interest in SanlamAllianz to Allianz BV for a cash consideration of R4.5 billion before adjustments.
This takes Sanlam down to 51% and Allianz up to 49%.
Sasfin will delist at the end of December (JSE: SFN)
Good luck to the new investors – I think they will need it
If my recent experience with Sasfin’s business banking division is anything to go by, then I hope that the new investors in Sasfin put very little (if any) value on the transactional banking side of things.
Either way, things will play out in the private space rather than in the public eye, as the delisting of Sasfin is imminent. The listing will be terminated on 30th December. As part of this, Sasfin Wealth has repurchased 8.92% of shares in issue using the funds put in by investors like WIPHOLD. I wish them luck, as Sasfin doesn’t exactly come with a gleaming track record of success.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
Christo Wiese is back at it with Brait (JSE: BTI), buying R3.5 million worth of exchangeable bonds through Titan Fincap Solutions and R220k worth of ordinary shares through Titan Premier Investments.
An associate of the investment advisor to Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) bought shares worth £75k.
A director of a major subsidiary of African Rainbow Minerals (JSE: ARI) sold shares worth R1.1 million.
Various directors of Anglo American (JSE: AGL) accepted shares in the company as a “shares in lieu of fees” scheme. The total across three directors was £31k.
A director of Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) sold approximately $21k worth of shares.
An associate of a director of Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) bought shares worth R77k.
A director of a major subsidiary of PBT Group (JSE: PBG) bought shares worth R37k.
The son of a family member of a director of Nampak (JSE: NPK) bought shares worth R5k. Start ’em young!
MC Mining (JSE: MCZ) has given notice that the meeting to vote on the investment by Kinetic Development Group in the company will take place on 23rd January. If the deal gets approved, it completely changes the company’s future.
As South32 (JSE: S32) recently indicated would happen, the Ministerial Statement related to the environmental approval by Australian authorities for the Worsley Mine Development Project has now been released. The environmental assessment, consultation and review process started all the way back in 2019! South32 had to go through quite a process to appeal the initial conditions of the approval, which were found to be too onerous.
As evidenced by the latest announcement regarding changes to major shareholders, DRA Global’s (JSE: DRA) shareholder register has changed substantially as the company moves into the unlisted space. Perhaps it will one day return to public markets!
Following the specific issue of shares for cash that Visual International (JSE: VIS) undertook to fix the balance sheet, there’s been a substantial increase in the percentage of shares held by insiders. One really has to wonder if there’s a delisting coming down the line for this obscure group with its tiny market cap.
AYO Technology (JSE: AYO) is late with its audited financial statements. The report for the year ended August was supposed to be released on 20 December. This has now been kicked out to 16 January 2025.
AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) announced that Alan Ferguson will replace Rhidwaan Gasant as Lead Independent Director, as Gasant has decided not to stand for re-election.
I’m not sure this is the capital allocation that the market wants to see
Shareholders in enX are very much in the mode of wanting the company to sell assets and return capital to shareholders. It therefore stuck out to me on SENS that enX is doing something completely different (at least with a portion of its capital), by buying a property in Alberton that is currently used as a manufacturing facility by two of its subsidiaries.
Of course, buying a strategic site as a manufacturing facility isn’t the weirdest capital allocation decision in history. It just stands out for being so different to the flavour of recent announcements from the company.
The purchase price is R95 million, which is above the market value of R90.3 million as prepared by an independent property valuation expert. They must really want the property. The property owner has unlocked this price by keeping enX on a short leash as the tenant, with a six-month notice period in the lease that would cause huge disruption to the subsidiaries if it was triggered.
enX will pay for the deal in cash and will look to refinance the property down the line.
EBITDA margins are significantly lower at Grindrod (JSE: GND)
At least profits from the Port of Maputo are growing quickly
Grindrod has provided a pre-close trading update to the market. Having cleaned out a bunch of non-core assets in recent times, the focus is on bulk handling, container handling, logistics capability as well as rail and transport.
The lack of Chinese economic growth has put the commodity market under pressure, which in turn creates a negative environment for Grindrod’s export drybulk commodities business. Stimulus announcements in China haven’t had the desired impact on iron ore and steel demand, so there’s no real improvement there just yet.
The protests in Mozambique have also played a negative role, impacting volume flows into the Port of Maputo. Ships were delayed and in some cases cancelled. Despite this, Grindrod notes 37% growth in its share of earnings from the Port of Maputo, driven primarily by chrome volumes it seems. The broader Mozambique business was hit by protests and the coal market, with volumes down sharply.
We can only hope that the positive momentum in the South African business continues, with volumes at Richards Bay and Durban up a combined 28%. Sentiment is improving around Transnet as well.
Despite the particularly strong performance at the Port of Maputo, Grindrod’s EBITDA margin fell in both segments. The Port and Terminals segment is down from 42% to 35% and Logistics fell from 30% to 22%.
Group gross debt increased from R2.9 billion as at June 2024 to R3.1 billion by the end of November. Net debt remains low though, dipping from R0.5 billion to R0.4 billion.
Results for the year ending December 2024 are expected to be released on 6th March 2025.
MAS has given the balance sheet more breathing room with the disposal of malls in Romania (JSE: MSP)
The deal is worth €49 million
If you’ve been following the MAS story, you’ll know that this property fund has been trying to prepare for a world that isn’t so friendly to sub-investment grade property funds. With major debt refinancings on the horizon, MAS went on the front foot to try and protect shareholders from a potentially damaging outcome. Although local shareholders didn’t appreciate the cancellation of the dividend at the time, the share price has now made a full recovery. Those who played the recovery have done really well, up 34% in 2024!
The latest good news from the company is that the strip malls in Romania are being sold for €49 million. These are mature centres, so MAS won’t get outsized returns from the properties going forwards. Instead, they can unlock the capital to help with debt maturation in 2026 and give themselves room to focus on properties where better returns are available.
The price is 3.1% above the fair value of the properties based on an independent valuation, so they got it away for a good price as well! Net cash proceeds after adjustments are expected to be €43.5 million.
For reference, net operating income from the properties was €3.6 million for the year ended June. This implies a yield of 7.3% for the selling price.
Thanks to this deal, the required additional funds for the funding commitments to June 2026 have dropped from €116 million to €64 million. They are almost there!
Much excitement at NEPI Rockcastle, but modest per-share growth (JSE: NRP)
This is what happens when shareholders get diluted
NEPI Rockcastle is a great property fund. It’s comfortably one of the best on our local market, as evidenced by a recent flurry of deals that saw the group easily raise €800 million in new funding. This was needed for property acquisitions worth €778 million in October and December.
The balance sheet remains in great shape, with a loan-to-value ratio below 35%. The pre-close update released by the company confirms that net operating income should be up 13% for the year, with the acquisitions making only a marginal contribution to that growth. So, the portfolio is doing extremely well.
And yet, the guidance for distribution per share growth is just 5.5% for the year. How did such an exciting story turn into growth that offers little more than inflation?
The answer lies in dilution, or the sheer number of new shares in issue. The scrip dividend alternative (in which shareholders accept shares in lieu of cash) had a 39% take-up rate. NEPI also raised equity on the market to assist with the acquisitions. Although this is necessary for growth over time, it does impact the per-share growth for shareholders in the near term.
A 10.8% year-to-date share price return is still very decent though, particularly once you add on the juicy dividends to get to the total return!
Sibanye-Stillwater unlocks $500 million through a streaming deal (JSE: SSW)
This mainly relates to gold as the by-product of the PGM operations
With its share price down over 32% this year and still languishing close to 52-week lows, Sibanye continues to face the challenges of a difficult PGM market. At least the gold market is holding up, allowing Sibanye to raise $500 million through a streaming deal focused mainly on gold from its PGM operations, with the inclusion of a small amount of platinum. This is because gold is part of the basket of metals mined by the PGM operations.
The trick here is that Sibanye can lean on the gold stream as a source of finance, while retaining upside to PGMs through the inclusion of only a modest amount of platinum in the streaming deal. Clearly, this strategy only works well if things recover at some point in the PGM sector, but Sibanye simply has to work on that assumption as their long-term existence largely depends on it.
The purchaser of the stream is Franco-Nevada Corporation and they will pay Sibanye $500 million upfront. Sibanye will receive a production payment of between 5% and 10% of the spot price per ounce, depending on whether you’re looking at the gold or platinum side of the deal.
Separately, Sibanye announced the BDO will take over as the new auditors, replacing EY for “commercial reasons” – are the Big Four firms simply becoming too expensive even for listed companies to justify?
The situation is Mozambique is improving for South32 (JSE: S32)
But the country isn’t out of the woods just yet
Politically-driven unrest is a feature of doing business in Africa and Mozambique is no different. Recent elections sparked protests and road blockages, which made things very difficult for South32’s Mozal Aluminium business.
Thankfully, there have been no security incidents at Mozal Aluminium itself. The other good news is that road blockages have largely cleared, so they are in the process of rebuilding alumina stocks at the smelter.
With the announcement of election results expected on 23 December, anything can still happen. For now at least, mitigating actions are working and Mozal Aluminium has continued to export aluminium to customers.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
In order to fund investments in hotels, Koos Bekker’s family trust sold a huge number of shares in Prosus (JSE: PRX). The total value is around €157 million. This represents 20% of the trust’s stake in Prosus. In case you’re wondering, they have retained all their Naspers (JSE: NPN) shares.
The CEO of Datatec (JSE: DTC) has entered into a new hedge structure over R14.9 million worth of shares. The put strike price is R44.70 and the call strike price is R59.75. The current price is R43.77 and the options expire in 2026.
Carl Neethling has bought another R11.7 million worth of shares in Ascendis Health (JSE: ASC) in an off-market transaction.
Directors of Octodec (JSE: OCT) acquired R7.64 million worth of Octodec shares in an off-market trade.
The outgoing CFO of AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) sold shares worth R81.7k.
The CEO of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) bought shares in the company worth nearly £4k.
Although one must be careful to read too much into regulatory reporting at banks, the latest quarterly report from Capitec (JSE: CPI) suggests that things are still going well there. Common Equity Tier 1 is up from R42 billion to R44 billion over just three months, which is most likely because of profits landing on the balance sheet as equity.
BHP (JSE: BHG) has been hit with a class action lawsuit in Australia “on behalf of all women who worked at BHP’s Australian workplaces at any time during the period 12 November 2003 to 11 March 2024 who were impacted by the alleged conduct” – those are very specific dates and no further information has been given about the conduct, other than references to sexual harassment and sex discrimination. The amount of damages sought is unspecified. Lawyers inevitably go for settlements in these situations, so keep an eye on this.
We have yet another cybersecurity incident at a listed company, this time at Tharisa (JSE: THA). It seems that systems have been taken offline, yet operations are unaffected at the moment. They will keep the market updated.
Dilution for shareholders at Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) continues. The company has issued another 4.78 million shares as part of a previous agreement to make certain shareholders whole. With around 175 million shares in issue in total, this dilution can add up.
Deutsche Konsum (JSE: DKR) has absolutely no liquidity in its stock, so results for FY24 get only a passing mention here. They also aren’t doing terribly well at the moment, with rental income down 2.9% and funds from operations down from EUR 33.1 million to EUR 28 million due to the added pressure of debt costs. At least the net loan-to-value has dipped from 61.6% to 57.2%, though it remains very high.
Rex Trueform (JSE: RTO) has appointed Karly White as Financial Director. This is an internal appointment, as White was previously the Financial Director of subsidiary Queenspark.
London Finance & Investment Group will wind up its business and delist (JSE: LNF)
Will anyone actually notice?
There are a bunch of companies listed on the local market that you would easily be forgiven for never having heard of. This is one of them, despite London Finance & Investment Group having a market cap of R484 million.
Sadly, daily average trading volume is 193 shares, or less than R3k a day. This isn’t just illiquid; it’s practically the Sahara Desert.
It’s a waste of time for this company to be listed and the board has recognised this, with a decision to rather dispose of the investments on the balance sheet and return around 70p per share to shareholders, which is the estimated net asset value (NAV) net of closure costs. They will also delist from the JSE and the London Stock Exchange.
At the current exchange rate, this works out to a return of cash of around R16 per share. The current share price is R15.50, so there’s no real opportunity here unless you got in closer to the 52-week low of R7.60! Even then, based on the illiquidity, you wouldn’t have been able to build a large position.
Powerfleet gives updated disclosure on its post-transaction numbers (JSE: PWR)
This takes into account the MiX Telematics and Fleet Complete deals
Powerfleet has released a useful update that helps shareholders understand what the combined group looks like from a financial perspective. It’s been a busy year, with the MiX Telematics deal happening in April this year and the Fleet Complete deal being far more recent, with that deal being completed in October.
This means that the shape of the group has changed completely, as has the balance sheet due to the acquisitions. The group has released pro-forma numbers to illustrate what the combined financials would’ve been for the six months to September 2024, had all the businesses already been in the group. It’s still not a perfect indication, as Fleet Complete is based on numbers for the six months to June.
Still, it shows that the combined group generated interim revenue of $214 million and a loss from operations of $17.9 million. Once you take interest expenses into account, the net loss attributable to shareholders is $35 million. Remember, this is only for six months!
With total liabilities on the balance sheet of over $460 million, this is a highly leveraged platform business that needs to scale into profitability.
Schroder European Real Estate is fighting with the French tax authorities (JSE: SCD)
The exposure is €14.2 million
Tax is a complicated thing, which is why it’s not uncommon to see large companies dealing with disputes with tax authorities. There are big numbers on the table when you’re talking about groups the size of Schroder European Real Estate.
The French tax structure is currently being audited by the French tax authorities and Schroder has received a “Proposal for Adjustment” – a love letter from the authorities stating that they believe that Schroder owes them €14.2 million.
Schroder’s initial guidance based on the audit was that they expected a range of potential outcomes from nil to €12.6 million, excluding penalties. Although the €14.2 million is higher than the guided range, it includes interest and penalties.
Based on professional advice, Schroder believes that there will be no outflow here, so they will continue to argue against this assessment. If South African matters are anything to go by, this can be a long and painful process in court.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
Although not a trade at this stage, the chair of Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) has pledged shares as security for a £2.5 million loan. If things go wrong with the loan, then this can lead to forced selling down the line.
A director of a subsidiary of Growthpoint (JSE: GRT) sold shares worth R5.5 million.
A director of Afrimat (JSE: AFT) sold shares in the company to the value of R2.15 million.
A director of a major subsidiary of Vodacom (JSE: VOD) sold shares in the company worth R834k.
An executive director of Momentum Group (JSE: MTM) bought shares worth R149k.
AECI (JSE: AFE) has announced a couple of big-hitter appointments to the board. Although I usually don’t cover non-executive director appointments, the importance of the mining sector to AECI’s business means I can’t ignore these ones. July Ndlovu (current CEO of Thungela) must have some free time in his diary, as he’s now a non-exec director at AECI as well. Billy Mawasha also joins, bringing with him a wealth of experience at major mining groups including a stint as country head of Rio Tinto South Africa.
Even though Trustco (JSE: TTO) plans to put together a Nasdaq listing and step into an incredibly regulated environment, they are late in the release of their annual financial statements. One of the reasons is that the auditors couldn’t get Namibian visas in time! They are going to need to get it together if they plan to make a success of the Nasdaq listing, as that type of story isn’t going to fly in the US.
Ahead of its delisting, DRA Global (JSE: DRA) announced that Apex Partner Holdings now has a 30.9% stake in the company, up from 25.01%. This was in all likelihood driven by the recent share repurchases from minority shareholders.
Pepkor (JSE: PPH) announced that Moody’s affirmed its credit rating with a stable outlook. Although this is for the benefit of debt holders rather than equity holders, it does indicate that the business is in good health.
Tyme Group lands a strong Series D raise – and that’s great news for African Rainbow Capital (JSE: AIL)
The total valuation for Tyme is now $1.5 billion
Tyme Group has been a lovely success story, as evidenced by a Series D raise that injects another $250 million into the group at a valuation of $1.5 billion. In startup land, that’s a really big deal and it sets the group up for an IPO in the next four years or so. The fact that the raise was oversubscribed is also extremely encouraging.
Nubank (a global digital banking group) led the round, investing $150 million. The M&G Catalyst Fund put in $50 million and the remaining $50 million was from existing shareholders, including African Rainbow Capital.
Tyme Group really isn’t messing around, with an ambition to become a top three retail bank in South Africa within the next three years. Just consider the competitive threat they are therefore posing to the established banks who already received a hiding from Capitec over the past couple of decades.
This is proving to be an incredible investment for African Rainbow Capital and I just hope that ARC will stay listed long enough for existing shareholders to get the full benefit of this journey to Tyme’s intended listing by 2028. As a sign of how important this asset is to the group, African Rainbow Capital’s share price closed 9% higher on the day.
Jubilee reminds the market that it isn’t immune to African electricity challenges (JSE: JBL)
It should be clear why securing private power supply has been such a priority
Jubilee Metals is struggling with lost production hours at the Roan facilities in Zambia due to infrastructure issues. This has led to a nasty drop of over 14% in the share price, adding to recent downward momentum. Mining is no joke at the best of times and especially in Africa.
The problem is that unplanned blackouts on the national power grid have led to outages at Roan, which doesn’t benefit from the private power supply that Jubilee manages to secure for other operations like Sable, Munkoyo and Project G. The impact is that there is uncertainty around whether production volumes will be met for the second quarter.
It really is a case of Bring Your Own Infrastructure when doing business in Africa, especially in power-hungry sectors like mining.
In happier news, Jubilee is still busy with its due diligence to acquire the Large Waste Project. The commercial terms have also improved, with the purchase price down to $18 million payable over 12 months, of which $11.5 million would still need to be paid. They expect to conclude the due diligence by January 2025.
A disappointing exit in the end for Metair from the Turkish operations (JSE: ORN)
Ongoing losses have led to a major downward adjustment to the disposal price
Metair seems to have gotten out of Turkey just in time, admittedly with very little to show for it. After initially announcing a sale of Mutlu Group for a disposal consideration of $110 million that was subject to net debt and working capital adjustments, Metair will get just $5 million in net proceeds. This is because debt has ballooned as Mutlu has continued to struggle with hyper-inflation and high interest rates.
Still, they needed to get out of the thing desperately. The old adage of “your first loss is your best loss” applies here. It takes a lot of pressure off the balance sheet, allowing Metair to move ahead with deals like the acquisition of AutoZone in South Africa. The final amount for that deal was R278.5 million, with a nominal amount for the equity and the rest needed by AutoZone to settle debtors (R203.5 million) and fund its working capital requirements (R75 million).
All they can do is move forward from here. If ever there was a company that is due a change in luck, it’s Metair. They really have had a tough time. A big part of the way forward is a balance sheet restructure, with Standard Bank agreeing to extend the existing bridge facility. Metair plans to present a final capital structure plan to its board and funders by March 2025.
Before that, an operational update is scheduled for release in February 2025. With the share price having lost around 40% of its value this year, the market will watch that closely.
Orion aims to release its Bankable Feasibility Study in January 2025 (JSE: ORN)
The latest drilling results willbe incorporated in the BFS
Orion Minerals has received a set of drilling results from Flat Mine South. I certainly don’t pretend to understand any of the geological metrics, but the management commentary around the results sounds bullish
In fact, the results are strong enough that the company has made the decision to redesign certain elements of the Flat Mine South mining strategy. The Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) is due for release in January 2025, a huge milestone for any junior mining group.
Sirius acquires a development site in Germany (JSE: SRE)
This is the final piece in the puzzle for this development opportunity
Sirius Real Estate is known for being a strong buyer and developer of properties, ranging from ground-up development through to value-add activities designed to fix underperforming properties. This has proven to be a solid strategy in Western Europe and the UK, regions that have claimed many scalps in property.
The latest such deal is an acquisition of a development site in Munich for €13.3 million. This is adjacent to the Munich-Neuaubing business park, with Sirius referring to it as the “final corner” of the estate. This gives Sirius lots of options regarding future development, so they seem to have completed a jigsaw puzzle here.
The acquired site comes with a rent roll of €740k per annum, so there’s some cashflow in the meantime that can also be enhanced by changes to the tenant base.
Transaction Capital’s Road Cover disposal is unconditional (JSE: TCP)
This is another important milestone in the group restructure
Transaction Capital has been taking various steps towards being focused on the Nutun business, although recent results have shown us that even Nutun is facing a number of challenges. At least a potential source of management distraction has been taken off the table, with the Road Cover disposal being finalised after the commitment agreement was signed.
This makes SA Taxi Holdings the owner of Road Cover, with the purchase price left on loan account. This is part of the support that Transaction Capital is giving to the Mobalyz business (the old SA Taxi) in an effort to see that business survive.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
A director of Sabvest (JSE: SBP) acquired shares worth R2.1 million.
A director of a subsidiary of Oceana (JSE: OCE) sold shares worth R276k.
A non-executive director of Mondi (JSE: MNP) bought shares worth €7.45k.
A director of a subsidiary of PBT Group (JSE: PBG) bought shares worth R41.8k. There’s also been a reshuffling of a small part of the B-BBEE stake held by Spalding, with roughly 1.0% in PBT Group being sold to TheIntrepid Projects, known as TIP. This takes TIP to 2% in PBT Group and Spalding down to 25.4%. Various directors have direct and indirect exposure to that transaction.
Telkom (JSE: TKG) is another step closer to finalising the disposal of the masts and towers business to Actis. Having already received shareholder and Competition Commission approval, the latest approval to add to the collection is from ICASA. That’s another big one out of the way, with some conditions still to be met before the deal can close.
Shareholders in property funds continue to give strong support to dividend reinvestment alternatives. The funds love this mechanism as it helps them retain cash through issuing new shares in lieu of a cash dividend. Vukile Property Fund (JSE: VKE) is a recent example, with holders of 39.43% of shares in the fund electing to receive shares in lieu of a cash dividend. This helps Vukile retain R264.5 million in equity, which is a lot! Sadly, it also means that those who chose the cash have been diluted and this impact will come through in distribution per share growth, which is impacted by having more shares in issue.
Nigerian energy group Oando (JSE: OAO) has very little liquidity in its stock, so I’ll just give the results a mention down here. Revenue grew 36% in the nine months to September, but profit after tax fell 31%. As is the case for so many Nigerian companies, foreign exchange losses on debts were a major cause of the drop in profit.
Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) is in the same boat, with very little activity on the share register. For the six months to September, revenue from continuing operations fell 15%, yet profit before tax was up 325%! HEPS from continuing operations jumped from 1.7 US cents to 7.0 US cents. Despite this, the interim dividend only moved slightly up from 1.9 US cents to 2.0 US cents.
Although it seems that there’s no real value left for shareholders in Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON), it’s still worth mentioning that the business rescue practitioners have moved ahead with the sale of the South African assets to Vision Sugar. Sale agreements for the non-South African assets are still being finalised.
A moment of internet fame can catapult almost anyone from anonymity to a household name. But is there a way to transform all that newfound fame into cold, hard cash? Follow me as I track Haliey Welch’s one-year journey from obscurity to internet sensation to potential crypto villain.
It’s that time of the year again: a time when we find ourselves taking stock of the preceding 11 months and assessing the highs and lows of 2024. And while I don’t know much about you or the year that you’ve had, I’m guessing that few of us lived the rollercoaster ride that was 2024 for Haliey Welch.
Let’s start at the beginning
If the name is unfamiliar to you (and yes, that is the correct spelling), then you might recognise her better by her online moniker, “Hawk Tuah Girl”, which she earned thanks to her appearance in a viral street interview.
On the 11th of June this year, Tim Dickerson and DeArius Marlow were in Nashville’s Broadway district, filming vox pop interviews for their YouTube channel, Tim & Dee TV. Welch and a friend noticed the duo filming and approached them, asking to participate in the interviews. What started as a fairly tame Q&A session – think questions like “What makes you wifey material?” – soon took a turn as Welch encouraged Marlow to spice up the questions. Marlow delivered, asking, “What’s one move in bed that makes a man go crazy every time?” Welch didn’t hesitate, and in her thick Southern accent answered: “You gotta give ’em that ‘hawk tuah’ and spit on that thang.”
Due to the fact that my mother reads this column every week (hi, mom), I won’t be going into any more detail about what that means, but in case you didn’t quite get it and want to hear it from the horse’s mouth, you can view the original video clip here.
The meaning of the phrase is not as important as its wildfire effect. On the 12th of June, Marlow uploaded the now-infamous video clip to TikTok, and social media did what social media does best: took it and ran. Reposts of the video, often scrubbed clean of the “Tim & Dee TV” watermark, started popping up everywhere. Dickerson and Marlow later revealed they had to file at least fifty copyright claims in the chaotic aftermath.
Meanwhile, the original video exploded, racking up millions of views across TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. It didn’t stop there – remixes, memes, and remakes of the audio flooded timelines, cementing Haliey Welch as the internet’s latest folk hero: “Hawk Tuah Girl”. The clip and her now-iconic phrase had officially gone viral, birthing a meme empire in record time.
Onward to fame and fortune
Welch’s life took a sharp turn after her viral moment, rocketing her from a minimum-wage factory worker to a full-fledged internet personality and entrepreneur practically overnight. Riding the wave of her newfound fame, Welch created an Instagram account that quickly amassed a significant following, attracting both media attention and brand opportunities.
Not content to let her 15 minutes fade, Welch went all in. She founded her own company, trademarked several phrases (yes, including that one), and signed with an agent to help manage her growing career. Soon, she was selling merchandise themed around her iconic line and making paid appearances.
On the 15th of August, she stepped onto the field at a New York Mets game to throw the ceremonial first pitch. On the 3rd of September, she launched a podcast called Talk Tuah in partnership with Betr, the media company co-founded by Jake Paul. The podcast had thirteen episodes in its first season and featured a variety of guests, including comedian Whitney Cummings, dancer Jojo Siwa, boxer Jake Paul and businessman Mark Cuban.
It wasn’t long before an app followed (of course). On the 14th of November, Welch debuted an AI-driven dating advice app called Pookie Tools. To bring her vision to life, she teamed up with Ben Ganz, the founder of Ultimate AI Studio, an AI automation platform. The app promised to combine Welch’s signature charm and real-talk advice with cutting-edge tech, helping users to “navigate the wild world of modern dating”. At the time of writing this article, Pookie Tools had an average of 3.5 out of 5 stars across 49 reviews on the Apple Store.
And then, of course, there was the meme coin.
Meme coin? Please explain.
A meme coin is a type of cryptocurrency that prioritises fun and hype over functionality. Instead of focusing on real-world applications, meme coins are designed to attract attention – and investors – through their quirky branding, viral appeal, and an enthusiastic online community. As the name suggests, they’re frequently tied to animated characters or popular meme images. Meme stocks are also a thing, where stocks like Robinhood went ballistic during the pandemic. At least there’s an actual company underneath that hype though! The same can’t be said for these coins.
Like other cryptocurrencies, meme coins are built on blockchain technology. Each token is essentially a hexadecimal number stored on a blockchain, with private keys to confirm ownership. While some meme coins achieve market value and can technically be used for transactions, many lack practical utility, such as rewarding blockchain participants for their efforts.
So what’s the point then? Many argue that meme coins offer an approachable way for people to learn about cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. They are generally more affordable than well-established cryptocurrencies, making them an accessible entry point for beginners. Additionally, they provide an opportunity to join active and enthusiastic trading and investing communities, which can be appealing for those who enjoy social engagement around their financial activities.
On the downside, meme coins come with extremely high risks and are notoriously volatile, making them a less stable investment option. They are often heavily hyped by their developers or communities, which can inflate expectations and lead to disappointment. Furthermore, many meme coins have little to no practical utility beyond being speculative tokens, limiting their functionality compared to other cryptocurrencies.
Enter the $HAWK
At their best, celebrity-backed meme coins are naive forays into the crypto world, where stars attempt to capitalise on an unfamiliar moneymaking trend. At their worst, they’re thinly veiled cash grabs designed to exploit fans through schemes like “pump-and-dumps” or “rug pulls.” Caitlyn Jenner, for example, is currently facing a lawsuit alleging she misled investors in her JENNER coin through one such scheme.
Haliey Welch, defending her own decision to launch a meme coin, told Fortune just hours before $HAWK hit the market that it wasn’t “just a cash grab.” However, the coin’s launch told a different story. Its value skyrocketed all the way to $500 million initially, only to plummet by over 95% within hours, landing at $25 million – a textbook sign of a “rug pull.” In such schemes, creators hype a coin’s launch to inflate its value, sell off their holdings at the peak, and leave unsuspecting investors holding worthless assets.
The fallout was swift. Internet sleuths, led by YouTuber and crypto investigator Stephen Findeisen (better known as Coffeezilla), quickly uncovered signs of misconduct. Findeisen compiled evidence after attending an X Spaces event where Welch and her team hosted a Q&A to address investor concerns. Instead of offering clarity, the session devolved into defensive posturing, with a man identified as Doc Hollywood deflecting blame and asserting the team’s innocence.
“This is one of the most miserable, horrible launches I’ve ever seen in my life,” Findeisen remarked when given the floor. He pressed the team about who benefited from the exorbitant transaction fees associated with the coin, only to receive evasive answers like, “Do you know how much it costs for lawyer fees to create a foundation in the Cayman Islands?”. Findeisen also highlighted findings from blockchain analyst Bubblemaps, which revealed that 96% of $HAWK’s supply was controlled by a single cluster of interconnected wallets; a hallmark of a coordinated “pump-and-dump”.
The call ended abruptly when Welch declared she was going to bed, leaving unanswered questions and rising skepticism in her wake. Since the event, Welch has largely remained silent, apart from statements issued by her lawyer to Coffeezilla. Whether she’s following legal advice to lay low or simply avoiding the public eye is unclear. One of the top online comments at the time advised Welch to Tawk Tuah lawyer – welcome to internet humour!
While being the public face of a failed cryptocurrency might not land Welch in prison, the situation could escalate if evidence shows she actively orchestrated the project. In that case, she could face serious fraud charges. For now, however, the most pressing question remains: was Welch just a pawn in a bigger game, or did she knowingly play her part in duping investors? Time will tell – but in the meantime, we can all agree that going from someone’s neighbour to a household name in the space of six months (all thanks to a 5-second soundbite going viral) makes Haliey the winner of the who-had-the-craziest-year award.
We can also agree that there isn’t much sympathy out there for people losing their life savings in meme coins. Be smarter than that this festive season.
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.
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