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Brat or demure? Viral words for viral brands.

Dominique Olivier
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Brat or demure? Viral words for viral brands.

For all things, from share price performances to TikTok trends, there is a universal truth: the pendulum swings. After the self-indulgent lunacy of “Brat Summer” in July, August was marked by the counterpointing “demure” trend, with everyone from influencers to brands expounding how they keep things “very cutesy, very mindful”. Got no clue what I’m talking about? Keep reading, I’ll take you through it.

And before you panic about whether this is just a tabloid post, my point here is that brands are no longer setting the trends out there. As this piece will hopefully show you, brands are now reacting to trends rather than driving them. Things have changed.

Choose your fighter

Love it or hate it, there’s no denying the truth that social media (TikTok in particular) is the petri-dish from which the world’s trends emerge. Despite being relatively new compared to other platforms, TikTok’s growth has been nothing short of extraordinary, achieving in six short years the kind of reach that Facebook and Instagram only saw after a decade. At present, the app has just over a billion regular users – meaning one in every eight people on earth. That’s not an audience to be sniffed at.

As cost per acquisition rises and consumer attention gets more scattered, brands are facing a real challenge in reaching the right decision-makers. Remember that old marketing adage about consumers needing an average of seven interactions with a brand before a purchase is made? I think we can safely assume that that average has continued to move up with every new social media platform’s introduction.

Millennials, who make up a significant chunk of the TikTok community (60% of the platform’s audience, in fact), are a key group to target. Most millennial TikTok users are now juggling adult responsibilities like household grocery shopping, making them the main decision-makers in many households.

With an estimated $360 billion in global disposable income, Gen Z is another must-win audience. The “born on the internet” generation, Gen Z users are 1.4x more likely to discover new brands and products on TikTok and 1.7x more likely to create tutorials about a product after buying it. This makes TikTok a golden opportunity for brands to tap into Gen Z’s love for discovering, participating, and influencing, driving both product awareness and consideration.

With all these stats considered, it seems like a no-brainer for any brand worth their salt to be chasing TikTok fame – but of course it can’t be that easy. TikTok isn’t your typical social media platform. Its quirky, trend-driven, fast-paced nature means that traditional ads or sponsored content might not cut it. But those who lean into what works on TikTok stand to win eyeballs and brand clout for their efforts.

Consider Unilever as a case study. #CleanTok – the TikTok community for cleaning content – is thriving. With over 97 billion views, it’s become the go-to place for sharing life hacks, learning pro tips, and discovering proven product recommendations. Unilever, whose homecare category tends to make up over half of annual turnover, recognised the potential of this engaged community. Partnering with TikTok, they launched #CleanTok content to make cleaning feel more like entertainment than a chore. And it’s working: 54% of users have purchased a household product after seeing it on the platform.

That’s the kind of ROI that gets marketers salivating, which explains why everyone is trying to get a slice of this pie.

In the blue corner: Charlie XCX

Although it was a thing in the middle of South Africa’s cold season, Brat Summer is an idea that transcends mere weather. It all started with the release of pop singer Charli XCX’s latest album, Brat, which has taken the charts by storm. The album, with its lime green cover and sans serif font – design elements that you’ve no doubt seen everywhere lately and wondered why – is best described as an embrace of a hot-mess aesthetic. It prioritises club culture at its core but still hides introspective lyrics on ageing, womanhood, grief, and anxiety between the beats. Taking its cues from the album, Brat Summer mixes the carefree, grungy, and hedonistic vibes of the 80s and 90s with that millennial and Gen Z edge (and angst). Brat Summer is about knowing that the world is a messed up place and we’re all a little traumatised but we’re doing our best and we’re managing to have fun. As Charli herself puts it, “It’s very honest, it’s very blunt, it’s a little bit volatile… It’s brat, you’re brat, that’s brat.”

Editor’s note: having never even heard of Charli XCX before reading this article, our resident ghost is now feeling old.

Unsurprisingly, Brat Summer became the trend to chase for about eight weeks. Perhaps my favourite moment in this whole crazy ride was when presidential contender Kamala Harris’s PR team decided to “brat-code” her official X account with a neon-green cover image and that unmistakable font. This of course followed on the heels of Charli XCX stating that Kamala Harris “IS brat” – high praise that was no doubt met with cheers of joy by the young left.

But Harris isn’t the only one who got a piece of Brat Summer. AirBaltic acted quickly and went all-in by temporarily rebranding themselves as AirBrat, playing off their already-existing signature lime green look. The move paid off, with over 400,000 views on TikTok. In case this TikTok player confuses you, you have to click the replay button in the bottom left:

@airbaltic

had to clear the air and work it out on the remix (we love u @Charli XCX) 💚

♬ original sound – 📓

In the red corner: Jules Lebron

And just as Brat Summer apparently reached its climax, it was ushered out by a new contender: the word “demure”. It all started with this video by creator Jules Lebron, which went live in the first week of August:

@joolieannie

#fyp #demure

♬ original sound – Jools Lebron

While the jury is still out about what exactly the secret ingredient is that led to its rapid rise in popularity, Jules’ video went viral seemingly overnight. Less than a month later, she’s now made dozens of viral TikToks about being demure – with the most-watched one sitting at a cool 10.7 million views.

Jules talks about being “mindful,” “cutesy,” “sweetsy,” and “considerate,” but her videos are far from serious critiques. Instead, she often makes fun of herself. For example, she once went to work wearing bold green-glitter makeup – not exactly “demure.” In another video, she claims she doesn’t drink or party, only to follow it with footage of herself, clearly tipsy, muttering “very demure” while searching for her hotel room after a wild night in Las Vegas.

Making its way to celebrities’ social media feeds, the trend has since prompted big names and brands to showcase their demureness and hop on the “demure” bandwagon.

And not just celebrities, but politicians as well:

In the stands: all the brands

So, what does it all mean?

For me, the key takeaway is that the days of brands and celebrities being the tastemakers in the world are nearing their end. With so many creators contributing original content to social media platforms like TikTok every day, and each one of their ideas having the potential to go viral any minute, it almost doesn’t make sense for a brand to try to swim against the current of attention. It may well be far easier, and – when done right – far more rewarding to incorporate what’s already trending, instead of trying to set the trend.

Just like Maybelline:

@maybelline_uk

Maybe it’s very demure, maybe it’s Maybelline #verydemure #demure

♬ original sound – MaybellineUK

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Adcock Ingram | Cashbuild | Powerfleet | Sibanye)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Adcock Ingram | Cashbuild | Powerfleet | Sibanye)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:

Margins under pressure at Adcock, but HEPS looks alright (JSE: AIP)

The final dividend per share has also shown some growth

In Adcock Ingram’s business, margins aren’t easy to manage. Apart from margin mix and how growth in different categories can lead to structural changes in group margin, there are also other issues like regulated prices for medicine. Even where revenue shows growth, gross profit may not follow suit.

This has been the case for the year ended June, where revenue was up 6% and gross profit was just 1% higher, which means gross profit margin fell. Despite a 6% drop in operating profit, they still managed to show 10% growth in HEPS to 616.6 cents. This is the power of share repurchases, particularly when a share trades at low multiples. Headline earnings was only up by 3.5%, yet on a per-share basis this jumps to 10% thanks to the sheer number of shares repurchased in the past year.

The same positive effect is seen on the dividend per share. The total dividend for the year is 275 cents, up 10% from 250 cents last year. The full benefit of the growth in the annual dividend is being felt in the final dividend, which jumped from 125 cents to 150 cents.

Looking at the segments, it was the Hospital segment where profit dislocated from revenue to the greatest extent. Revenue was up 8% in that segment, yet trading profit fell by 16%. As an example of a different shape elsewhere, Prescription saw revenue up 4% and trading profit up 10%. This is my point about how the mix effect can really impact the group numbers.

The market liked what it saw, with the share price ending the day 9% higher.

The bottom is hopefully in at Cashbuild (JSE: CSB)

I strongly believe that things will improve from here

After watching the Cashbuild share price come off sharply for no obvious reason in the past month, I pulled the trigger and got in at R143.65. So far, so good. I’m up around 14% in the space of a week – and that’s even after the drop in the share price after these earnings came out! Sometimes, the market gives you a gift.

You won’t understand my investment thesis on Cashbuild purely by looking at the trading statement for the 52 weeks to 25 June. HEPS will be down by between 20% and 30%, which by all accounts is awful. The point is that share prices (and thus investment returns) are based on what will happen in future, not what already happened.

There are three reasons why Cashbuild has had a torrid time: (1) very poor consumer sentiment in SA, especially for fixed property investment; (2) prioritising load shedding-related spend on homes (e.g. solar) over other projects; (3) high interest rates. Two of the three problems have improved dramatically in recent months and interest rates are going to start dropping as well.

This is why I believe that the worst is now behind Cashbuild and I’ve positioned myself accordingly. The solar providers had their time in the sun, literally. It’s time for people to start adding on rooms and doing new floors again.

Powerfleet’s results are out in the wild (JSE: PWR)

After some hurdles along the way, the first quarterly results after the MiX Telematics deal are available

Powerfleet’s life as a merged company didn’t get off to the easiest start, with the SEC conducting a review of the accounting methods applied to the business combination with MiX Telematics. With the review complete, Powerfleet has been able to file its quarterly results and can now breathe a sigh of relief.

This results covers the three months to June, which is the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year. For now, they’ve only issued a press release with the highlights of the quarter. The detailed 10-Q filing hasn’t been made available yet, but it looks like it should still come out this week based on previous communication from the company.

For now, we know that revenue is up 10.2%. Prior year comparison numbers have been adjusted for the merger, so that’s a real metric that is useful to investors. Adjusted gross profit was up 9%, so there’s some margin compression there. Not so on the adjusted EBITDA line though, which jumped 52.2% thanks to cost synergies.

The merger allowed for duplicated support functions to be removed, paving the way for $8.7 million in annualised savings and a 30% increase in the sales force in coming months, funded by the reduction in overheads. The target for total cost savings is $27 million.

Just be careful of how US groups tend to report adjusted EBITDA, as they are notoriously good at reversing out expenses that South African listed companies include in HEPS. You can immediately see this when you look at Powerfleet’s adjusted EPS of precisely $0.00 for the period. Without adjustments, they reported a net loss to stockholders.

There’s a big chunk of debt on the balance sheet, so that’s not doing any favours for EBITDA to EPS conversion either, as there are interest bills to be paid.

They’ve updated full year guidance for 2025, but not in a way that is terribly useful. They simply expect to exceed the previous guidance of $300 million revenue and $60 million adjusted EBITDA, with no information on the extent to which they will exceed it.

More balance sheet news at Sibanye – this time for Keliber (JSE: SSW)

There’s been a lot of corporate news coming out of the company this year

Sibanye-Stillwater has managed to complete the full financing requirement for the Keliber lithium project, achieved through the raising of a €500 million green loan financing facility. For a transition metal located in a country like Finland, a green loan was always going to be the right option.

The Finnish state owned Export Credit Agency has guaranteed 80% of a tranche of €250 million coming from a bank. The European Investment Bank has put up €150 million. Finally, there’s a €100 million syndicated commercial bank tranche. The facilities are governed by a Green Financing Framework and they have achieved a Medium Green classification from S&P Global ratings. There’s an entire industry around this stuff, ranging from advisors and verification agents through to lenders themselves, not to mention the likes of Bank of America who acted as the green loan coordinator.

There was no shortage of demand from lenders, with the syndicated loan being oversubscribed. 7 banks eventually participated, with maturities of 7 to 8 years and variable interest rates linked to EURIBOR.

Together with previously raised equity of €250 million, this means there is enough for the total capital requirement of Keliber of around €667 million. They will now begin the construction phase to work towards production of battery-grade lithium hydroxide.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • A director of NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) bought shares worth €675k.
    • Stephen Koseff (one of the founders and the ex-CEO) sold shares in Investec (JSE: INL | JSE: INP) worth £188k.
    • A director of Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO) sold shares worth R881k.
    • A director of Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) acquired shares in the company worth $15.3k.
    • An associate of two directors of Astoria Investments (JSE: ARA) entered into a CFD position on the stock worth R152k.
  • Bell Equipment (JSE: BEL) has confirmed that interim results will be published before 12th September, which is the date of the general meeting to vote on the all-important offer to shareholders. Mind you, they won’t beat that date by much, with a plan to release earnings on the 9th. They also made a correction to the dates of trades by concert parties, with some interesting analysis doing the rounds on X regarding the shape of Bell’s shareholder register. This deal is by no means a foregone conclusion.
  • There’s no luck for MAS (JSE: MAS) shareholders on the proposed restructure, which I felt was quite a clever deal with Prime Kapital that would’ve solved some of the balance sheet challenges. Sadly, the parties couldn’t reach an agreement and so the deal has been called off and the cautionary withdrawn.
  • Premier Group (JSE: PMR) announced that Titan Premier Investments, a major investment entity of Christo Wiese, now holds a beneficial interest in 45.6% of the shares of the company. This is because of the corporate activity related to the capital raise at Brait. The direct stake in Premier remains 31.5%.
  • South32 (JSE: S32) updated the market on the sale of Illawarra Metallurgical Coal, with that transaction now expected to complete on 29 August 2024.
  • After quite a scare, Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) has confirmed that it has protected its original investment value in relation to the Birca Copper Mine fiasco. Mantengu subsidiary Meerust Chrome has entered into a lease agreement and various other agreements that allow it to legally and commercially operate under the mining right. Affected employees are being hired to maintain jobs while the rest of the mess is navigated, with Birca in business rescue thanks to previously undisclosed liabilities. Mantenge is still exploring all its legal rights in this regard.
  • Barloworld (JSE: BAW) has renewed the bland cautionary announcement. As the name suggests, a bland cautionary has no real details about the underlying transaction being considered. In this case, all we know is that Barloworld is talking about something important with someone out there. If those talks go well, it could impact the share price. Hence, trade with caution!
  • Oando Plc (JSE: OAO) has very little liquidity on the local market, so the share price didn’t even react to the news of the $783 million acquisition of Nigerian Agip Oil Company being completed. The transaction is immediately cash generative and significantly increases Oando’s reserves.
  • There’s no liquidity at all in Globe Trade Centre (JSE: GTC), so I’ll only give the results for the six months to June a passing mention. Revenue increased 3% and funds from operations was ever so slightly higher. The loan-to-value at 48.2% is on the high side, but is at least better than 49.3% at the end of December 2023.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
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Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Exchange-Listed Companies

Economic headwinds and the sharp devaluation of the naira, has over the past two years, negatively impacted mobile operator MTN’s bottom line. The impact of the lacklustre performance of the company’s share price is problematic for the company’s soon to mature Zakhele Futhi B-BBEE scheme. The scheme launched in November 2016 subscribed for 4% of the company’s share capital at R102.80 (an effective 20% discount) and is due to mature in November 2024. However, for full settlement to be achieved the MTN share price would need to reach c.R88.00 per MTN share. Like many BEE deals of its era, the scheme is effectively underwater, projected to owe R620 million to the preference share funders and R6,1 billion to MTN. Subject to shareholder approval, MTN will extend the structure for a further three years to 2027 with the option to unwind the scheme either partially or fully during the period if conditions improve.

Argent Industrial has announced that it is to acquire Standmode and its subsidiary Mersey Container Services for £6,89 million (R159,3 million) in a move to scale its business by further diversifying its portfolio of companies and expanding internationally into the UK. Mersey manufactures modular buildings, offices and mess units which can be stacked or linked depending on requirements. The deal is a category 2 transaction and as such does not require shareholder approval.

The acquisition announced in June by York Timber of several standing timber plantations has been amended following the destruction of the Wolberg farms by a fire. The deal with Stevens Lumber Mills will be implemented excluding the affected farms at a reduced deal value of R41,36 million, previously R75 million.

Oando PLC has completed the September 2023 acquisition of the Nigerian Agip Oil Company from Italian energy company Eni. The US$783 million transaction is significant in Oando’s long-term strategy to expand its upstream operations and strengthen its position in the Nigerian oil and gas sector.

In July MAS PLC released a cautionary announcement advising shareholders that it was considering a restructure proposal to simplify and achieve control of its development joint venture with Prime Kapital named PKM Development. The company this week issued a further cautionary, advising shareholders that the process relating to the proposed restructure had terminated without PKM Development and Prime Kapital reaching agreement.

Unlisted Companies

Solarise Africa, a pan-African Energy-as-a-Service company has secured a R160 million investment from Mergence Investment Managers. Solarise provides innovative and affordable solar energy solutions with a focus on delivering reliable and sustainable energy. The funding will be used to advance the deployment of Commercial and Industrial scale renewable energy solutions in South Africa.

Qatar Airways has made an equity investment into Airlink, taking a 25% stake in the local carrier as it seeks to expand its presence in Africa. For Airlink, the transaction will unlock growth by providing efficiencies of scale, increasing the airline’s capacity and expand its marketing reach. Financial details were not disclosed.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Marylou Greig
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Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Following the resolution of the Tax Matter and the reversal of the tax provision of R794 million provided for in Coronation Fund Managers’ financial accounts, the company has declared a non-recurring gross special dividend of 153 cents per ordinary share returning R534 million to shareholders.

Several companies announced the repurchase of shares:

In line with its share buyback programme announced in March, British American Tobacco this week repurchased a further 446,617 shares at an average price of £27.78 per share for an aggregate £12,41 million.

In terms of its US$5 million general share repurchase programme announced in March 2024, Tharisa has repurchased a further 15,896 ordinary shares on the JSE at an average price of R18.99 per share and 128,016 ordinary shares on the LSE at an average price of 80.92 pence. The shares were repurchased during the period 12 – 16 August 2024.

Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period 12 – 16 August 2024, a further 3,465,763 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €114,18 million and a further 291,595 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R1,07 billion.

Four companies issued profit warnings this week: Master Drilling, KAP, Randgold & Exploration and Cashbuild.

Five companies issued cautionary notices this week: TeleMasters, Trematon Capital Investments, PSV, Barloworld and MAS.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

Vanessa Aitken
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Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

DealMakers AFRICA

Snapshot of some of the deals announced this week across the continent…

Sea Gardener, a company that uses technology to harvest premium quality Mediterranean clams, has received an undisclosed investment from Cairo-based venture capital fund, The Climate Resilient Africa Fund (CRAF).

British International Investment has committed to invest up to US$35 million towards the development of the new container port in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as part of an extension to its existing partnership with global ports and logistics operator, DP World. The Port of Banana will be the country’s first deepwater container port.

Gaea Foods, a potato-processing company in Kenya, has received and undisclosed debt investment from Pepea, an impact investment fund from Oxfam Novib, managed by Goodwell Investments. This is the fund’s first investment and Gaea Foods fits the Pepea mandate of “fair, green and inclusive”. The company is led by a female founder and 70% of the staff are women.

KBW Ventures has announced its first Egyptian investment – NoorNation. The Egypt-based climatech startup was founded in 2021 and was selected as the Best Green Tech Startup of the Year in Northern Africa by the Global Startup Awards in 2024. LifeBox, the firm’s flagship product, delivers clean energy and safe water to rural communities, farms and tourism businesses.

DealMakers AFRICA is the Continent’s M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

From static to supercharged: legal reforms galvanise sub-Saharan Africa’s energy industry

Charles Mmasi, Edwin Baru and Alison Mellon
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From static to supercharged: legal reforms galvanise sub-Saharan Africa’s energy industry

The energy sector in sub-Saharan Africa (and related legal frameworks) is experiencing some dynamic changes. It is a tough call to decide where the most exciting developments are occurring, but a few examples spring to mind.

Mauritius, where the Government has pledged to phase out coal and reach 60% renewable energy by 2030.

Or what about Kenya, which is accelerating the transition to electric vehicles by creating a framework for electric vehicle charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, while pursuing a viable carbon trading and credit market?

On the other hand, there is also Namibia, which is overhauling its energy laws and regulations, and Tanzania, which is dramatically changing the way it approaches public-private partnerships (PPPs) in the power sector.

Then there is Zambia, which recently launched its first ever integrated resource plan, and where the use of green bonds to finance renewable solar projects is on the rise.

And South Africa too, whose electricity industry has already seen a whirlwind of changes and is gearing up for more change as the country embraces competition in the electricity supply market.

Trends to watch on the energy front

These six countries are arguably at the forefront of the latest energy developments in sub-Saharan Africa and, while each jurisdiction has its own priorities and regulatory approaches, some common trends can be discerned among them.

They include the growing role of PPPs and independent power producers (IPPs), increased interest in the commercial and industrial (C&I) market, and the rise of renewable energy sources.

Paving the way for these and other developments is a raft of new legislation and regulations, some being taken through the law-making process surprisingly swiftly, signalling a sense of urgency in some governments towards achieving energy security.

In the PPP domain, Tanzania is an interesting example. A key amendment has been made to the Public Private Partnership Act, exempting certain solicited projects from the competitive bidding process. Instead, the change allows the Government to engage directly with individual private parties, which is expected to speed up the execution and delivery of PPP projects.

However, this is subject to strict conditions, urgency being one. Not only must there be an urgent need for the project for the exemption to apply, but the circumstances giving rise to the urgency must not have been foreseeable by the contracting authority. In other words, urgency cannot be manufactured to bypass the usual tender process.

Moreover, the private party concerned must either own the intellectual property rights to the key approaches or technologies required for the project, or have exclusive rights in respect of the project, with no reasonable alternative or substitute being available.

Kenya, too, is placing increased focus on PPPs in the delivery of energy infrastructure, especially in transmission and generation, where the private sector can bring expertise, innovation and capital. The country’s Public Private Partnerships Act, which came into effect in 2022, has created PPP processes that are considered quicker, more flexible and efficient, and less expensive than the previous PPP framework.

Challenges and opportunities for IPPS

Meanwhile, the IPP model is also gaining momentum across the region. In the past 12 months, there has been increased activity in Namibia by IPPs investing in solar projects for industrial use, especially in the mining sector.

Still in Namibia, there has also been an uptick in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions around the acquisition of developers and IPPs, as well as increased due diligence work in green hydrogen.

In South Africa, where the IPP model was first introduced in 2010, the IPP landscape is in for something of a shakeup. The national utility, Eskom, has implemented its new grid access rules, which change the capacity allocation from ‘first come, first served’ to ‘first ready, first served’.

This creates competitive pressure for the IPPs to complete their projects as soon as possible, but also raises questions about the bankability of the power purchase agreements that had already been signed under the previous regime.

At the same time, South Africa is enjoying an increase in the number of private-to-private IPPs that generate and sell electricity directly to commercial and industrial customers. Most of these projects involve wheeling through Eskom’s and/ or municipalities’ grids, giving rise to challenges such as the need for bilateral negotiated agreements between the IPPs, the customers and the grid operators, creating considerable contractual complexity.

Other jurisdictions experiencing growth in C&I markets are Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia. The focus has been on solar projects, increasingly financed through green bonds in Zambia’s case.

As for Mauritius, the country is carrying out its ambitious plans to phase out coal and make renewables its dominant sources of electricity within the next five and a half years. The government has already set up several agencies and authorities to achieve these goals, notably the Mauritius Renewable Energy Agency and the Energy Efficiency Management Office.

Like Kenya, Mauritius is in the fast lane when it comes to promoting the use of electric vehicles and reducing carbon emissions. The island has put in place initiatives such as the Solar PV Scheme for Charging Electric Vehicles and the Carbon Neutral Industrial Sector Renewable Energy Scheme. It is also exploring renewable sources beyond solar, such as biomass, hydro and wind.

The winds of change are blowing in the energy industry in sub-Saharan Africa, bringing with them the prospects of industry renewal, sustainable development and economic growth.

Charles Mmasi and Edwin Baru are Partners and Alison Mellon is a Knowledge and Learning Lawyer in Banking and Finance | Bowmans

This article first appeared in DealMakers AFRICA, the continent’s quarterly M&A publication.

DealMakers AFRICA is a quarterly M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

Ghost Bites (Blue Label Telecoms | Curro | DRDGOLD | Jubilee Metals | RCL Foods | Sabvest | Sibanye-Stillwater | Spur)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Blue Label Telecoms | Curro | DRDGOLD | Jubilee Metals | RCL Foods | Sabvest | Sibanye-Stillwater | Spur)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:

HEPS is actually lower at Blue Label, if you read carefully (JSE: BLU)

I will never understand why they make their reporting so complicated

All JSE-listed companies are required to report headline earnings per share (HEPS). It’s a well-understood concept with rules that all companies must apply. In some cases, there are good reasons for companies to report adjusted HEPS, or core HEPS, as there might be valid adjustments that aren’t captured in the standard HEPS rules.

Blue Label Telecoms takes the core HEPS route, with that metric up by 65% to 69% for the year ended May. That sounds lovely, until you read the next two paragraphs. For whatever reason, their definition of core HEPS doesn’t adjust for the recapitalisation of Cell C, which caused huge distortions to the numbers in both the previous year and the current year.

If you make those adjustments, then HEPS is actually down by 35% and core HEPS is down 34%. What exactly is the point of core HEPS, then?

Most of the growth at Curro is coming from fee increases (JSE: COH)

Filling the schools is proving to be difficult

Curro has released results for the six months to June. They tell a story of a group that is increasing revenue through fee increases and ancillary revenue, rather than meaningful growth in the number of learners. Average learner numbers were up just 0.5%, which isn’t enough to deliver much improvement in capacity utilisation.

Thankfully, the market was able to bear a 6% hike in school fees, which was responsible for most of the 6.8% increase in school fee revenue. Ancillary revenue was the A student in this case, up 17.2% and helping total group revenue increase by 8.3%. It’s also worth noting that discounts decreased to 6.1% of gross school fees from 6.7% in the prior period.

These increases weren’t enough to offset operating cost pressures, with those costs up by 8.1%. Excluding new schools, employee costs were up 6.7%. This means that school fee increases weren’t enough to cover the increases required by staff, which isn’t a great outlook for Curro’s operating margins.

Nevertheless, due to ancillary revenue growth and other line items like flat credit loss provisions despite the higher revenue, EBITDA was up by 10.4% and showed margin expansion vs. the prior period. It would just be a lot better if the mismatch between fee increases and staff increases wasn’t there.

Recurring HEPS was up 12.3%, so the leverage from EBITDA to HEPS came through nicely in this period.

The cash flow growth is another concern, with cash from operating activities up by just 2.8%. With a capex plan of R700 million for the full year (with R306 million already completed), earnings need to translate into cash flows to support the capex and provide returns to investors.

DRDGOLD’s dividend has nosedived (JSE: DRD)

The strength in the gold price didn’t save shareholders here

DRDGOLD already gave us an earnings update, so we knew that these numbers for the year ended June wouldn’t be great. It just wasn’t obvious that the final dividend would be down by 59%, despite HEPS being 4% higher. A negative surprise on the payout ratio isn’t the kind of thing that the market appreciates.

You can quite clearly see the problem in the table shown below, with production down 5% and the cash operating costs per kg therefore up by 20%, completely offsetting the benefit of the average gold price received also increasing by 20%:

Looking ahead to the next financial year, production guidance is for 155,000 to 165,000 ounces, so that sounds a lot like a repeat of 2024. Cash operating costs are expected to be R870,000/kg, which is worse than in FY24. Combined with the sharp decrease in the dividend, it’s hard to see any highlights here.

Jubilee Metals is looking strong vs. production guidance (JSE: JBL)

Chrome guidance was exceeded this quarter and copper guidance was met

Jubilee Metals has released an operational update for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company has done a great job of meeting production guidance and achieving growth, with copper units for the quarter up by 51.7% and for the full year up by 17.1%. In the chrome business in South Africa, chrome concentrate production was up 3.2% for the quarter and 20% for the full year. There was admittedly a decrease in PGM production, but they prioritised chrome as the more lucrative commodity right now.

At projects like the Roan Front-End Modules and the Project Munkoyo open-pit strategy, Jubilee is generally meeting or even beating the timelines given to the market.

Guidance for FY25 is a 6.7% increase in chrome production and a 68% – 119% increase in copper unit production. The variance in copper isn’t as severe as it sounds, as the guided production is 5,750 tonnes to 7,500 tonnes. They are just coming off a low base. PGM production is expected to be flat year-on-year.

RCL Foods updates its trading statement (JSE: RCL)

At this stage, we only have a view on total operations, not continuing operations

RCL Foods has released a further trading statement for the year ended June 2024. The initial trading statement in June indicated that HEPS from total operations would be at least 75% higher. The updated guidance is that HEPS will increase by between 102.6% and 112.6%, so that’s certainly the right direction of travel.

The improvement is largely attributable to Rainbow as well as the groceries segment. This is a good time to remind you that RCL Foods’ continuing operations don’t include Rainbow, which has been unbundled and separately listed. The other difference between continuing and total operations is the Vector segment, which was sold in the first half of this period.

To understand the underlying performance at RCL Foods that will be applicable going forward, we need to wait for the earnings from continuing operations to be released.

Sabvest’s NAV per share has ticked higher (JSE: SBP)

And so has the dividend

Sabvest is seen as one of the best locally listed investment holding companies, not least of all because it holds a portfolio of assets that you can’t get to any other way. There’s been a push back in recent years against listed funds that simply hold stakes in other listed entities. After all, what’s the point of that?

Sabvest has reported a 7.8% increase in net asset value (NAV) per share from December 2023 to June 2024. Before you get too excited about annualising that, it’s only up 2.8% over 12 months. Valuations can be volatile things. Still, it’s very helpful that the interim dividend is up by 16.7% to 35 cents per share.

The company always reminds the market of the long term track record, which in this case is a 15-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% with dividends reinvested and 17.2% without the reinvestment.

Looking deeper into the portfolio, the theme is one of cost control that has helped improve results in the underlying businesses. Debt has also been reduced, funded by the sales of some holdings in Sunspray and Metrofile among other sources.

The outlook is strong, with Sabvest expecting “satisfactory” growth in NAV per share for the full year.

Sibanye-Stillwater gives an update on projects and funding (JSE: SSW)

They are being proactive with the balance sheet as the cycle continues to disappoint

Let’s start with the balance sheet news, with Sibanye-Stillwater happy to announce that the revolving credit facility has been refinanced and upsized from R5.5 billion to R6 billion. The refinanced facility matures in August 2027, so there’s some breathing room there. The interest rate is a sliding scale between JIBAR plus 2.20% and 2.80%.

To help with the balance sheet, they’ve also concluded a R1.8 billion gold prepayment arrangement, in which Sibanye has agreed to sell 1,497kgs of gold in equal monthly tranches from October 2024 to November 2026. The floor price is R1,350,000/kg and the cap price is R1,736,000/kg. The current gold price is around R1,440,000/kg, so they are retaining upside exposure to the gold price while giving themselves some downside protection. The gold prepayment amount will be used to partially repay the revolving credit facility.

In a separate announcement, the group announced that a lot of progress has been made to repurpose the Sandouville refinery to produce pre-cursor cathode active material. It’s all very technical and I certainly don’t pretend to understand it. They are trying to address the ongoing losses at Sandouville, with a plan that includes the termination of an existing supply agreement at an agreed cost of $37 million. Negotiations to terminate other contracts are ongoing. Even if they get it right, there’s still uncertainty over exactly which activities will take place at Sandouville during 2025 to 2026, as the intended technology is still being proven.

Spur goes from strength to strength (JSE: SUR)

This is the power of a focused strategy

I really enjoy it when listed companies follow sensible, focused strategies. Spur is one such example, with the results clear to see in the latest numbers. For the year ended June, revenue is up 14.1% and diluted HEPS is up 9.4%. The dividend per share is 10.9% higher at 213 cents, so shareholders are enjoying growth that is well ahead of inflation.

And with a return on equity of 29.6%, shareholders should feel good about this management team managing their funds.

In understanding these numbers, it’s important to remember that the acquisition of a 60% stake in Doppio Collection was effective from 1 December 2023. This is why “Speciality Brands” has such a huge growth rate vs. the rest of the group:

Spur has been focusing on value-conscious consumers and there are many of those in South Africa, especially families with kids. Spur put great effort into the Family Club advertising campaign and attracted 1.1 million new loyalty club members, taking the tally to a record high 3.1 million members. The growth in membership in just one period is really impressive. I must note however that customer count numbers were unchanged vs. the previous year, so the story here is one of conversion of the existing client base into loyalty members. That’s still a powerful initiative.

Based on HEPS of 291.02 cents and the share price in mid-morning trade, the Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple has moved up to roughly 12x. The dividend yield is at 6%. Spur is quite the cash cow, which is why the dividend yield looks so strong relative to what is no longer a cheap P/E.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Mr Price (JSE: MRP) exercised share options and sold the entire lot (i.e. not just the portion required to settle taxes) for R30.1 million. This is a bearish signal about the extent of the recent rally in the share price.
    • The former CEO of Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) received vested share awards and sold the whole lot, not just the amount required for tax. The additional sale was worth R4.83 million.
    • Here’s a trade I didn’t expect to see: Titan Premier Investments, the investment vehicle of Christo Wiese, has sold shares in Brait (JSE: BAT) worth R4.34 million. A director of Brait has bought shares worth R1.5 million.
    • A non-executive director of Nedbank (JSE: NED) has sold shares worth R1.2 million.
  • Just when you thought you had seen every type of deal risk, here’s a new one for you. York Timbers (JSE: YRK) has been in the process of acquiring various plantations from Stevens Lumber Mills. Prior to the implementation of the deal, two of the plantations were destroyed by a fire! They’ve had to amend the deal to exclude those plantations. When the lawyers get creative on the breach and material adverse change clauses, this is why.
  • Murray & Roberts (JSE: MUR) announced that trading division OptiPower, in joint venture with Spanish energy infrastructure group Coxabengoa, has been awarded a contract to construct a 100MWp solar PV facility in the Northwest Province for a mining company. The contract is worth R1.2 billion and OptiPower’s share is 50%.
  • Attacq (JSE: ATT) announced that Global Credit Ratings has assigned an initial credit rating for the company of A+(ZA) long-term and A1(ZA) short-term, with a stable outlook. This speaks directly to the quality of the Attacq portfolio.
  • Randgold & Exploration Company (JSE: RNG) released a trading statement for the six months to June. The headline loss per share is expected to be between 10.77 cents and 12.43 cents, which is an improvement of between 35.16% and 25.16% vs. the loss in the previous period.

Sasol’s streamlines business, sees volumes improvement across operations

Sasol
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Sasol’s streamlines business, sees volumes improvement across operations

This results summary is brought to you by Sasol.

  • Mozambique gas production up 6% – Additional PPA wells and PSA contributing to higher production
  • Secunda production up 1% – Phase shutdown and improved operational performance
  • Chemicals Africa sales volumes up 2% – Phase shutdown and improved supply chain
  • Chemicals America sales volumes up 3% – Higher utilisation rates
  • Chemicals Eurasia sales volumes up 3% – Slight improvement in demand; margins remain under pressure
  • Adjusted EBITDA down 9% to R60, 012 billion
  • Final dividend passed, resulting in full year dividend of R2

Johannesburg, South Africa – Sasol’s financial results for the year ended 30 June 2024 were negatively impacted by challenging market conditions, with continued pressure from constrained margins and depressed chemicals prices resulting in turnover of R275,1 billion being 5% lower than the prior year. However, these factors were partially offset by the stronger rand oil price, improved refining margins, reduced total costs and higher sales volumes. Additionally, Sasol’s stronger operational performance in the fourth quarter contributed to an overall stronger performance in the second half of the year.

VIEW THE FULL INVESTOR SUITE HERE >

VIEW THE SHORT FORM ANNOUNCEMENT BELOW

SASOL-2024_Results-Ad-FINAL

Ghost Wrap #77 (Absa & Standard Bank | MTN | NEPI Rockcastle)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Wrap #77 (Absa & Standard Bank | MTN | NEPI Rockcastle)

Listen to the show here:

The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Forvis Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Forvis Mazars website for more information.

This episode covers:

  • Absa and Standard Bank as examples of divergence in performance within the same sector.
  • MTN and the ongoing nightmare in Nigeria, necessitating an extension to the B-BBEE deal that references MTN’s listed shares.
  • NEPI Rockcastle as one of the best property funds on the local market.

Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | NEPI Rockcastle | Sasol)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | NEPI Rockcastle | Sasol)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:

Accelerate looks to finalise the Fourways Mall management deal (JSE: APF)

This will hopefully improve performance at what has been a problematic property

If some of the GNU-inspired sentiment can filter into Joburg and specifically Fourways, then perhaps Accelerate will finally achieve a decent outcome with Fourways Mall. Sadly, the mall has thus far proven to be far too ambitious, with Accelerate having built the largest super-regional centre in the country when nobody was asking them to do it.

To try and get things right at the mall, they are bringing in expert independent management. Back in December 2023, they announced that heads of agreement had been achieved with Flanagan & Gerard (F&G) regarding their potential appointment as the asset and property manager for the mall. They have now announced the detailed terms to appoint F&G and Luvon (which seems to be a company closely related to F&G) to that role.

The deal lasts for five years unless there is an event of default, or Accelerate and Fourways Mall co-owner Azrapart sell their shares in the mall. The fees payable over that period are 1% of gross monthly collections for the previous month, plus an asset management fee of 1.75% and a leasing fee of 0.5%, also calculated on collections. That’s 3.25% of collections, so these property managers need to add a great deal of value.

The managers will also earn 2.5% on the total cost incurred on each capital project, so they earn fees for managing capex as well.

If you can believe it, there’s also an upside participation fee. There’s a complicated formula to work it out, but we can look to the breach clauses to get an idea of how high it might be. If the agreement is terminated in year 5 (i.e. close to when it should be up for renewal), the minimum upside participation fee would be R150 million. The fee is either payable in cash or with shares in Fourways Mall.

On top of this, the manager will also have a call option to acquire a share of up to 15% in Fourways Mall after payment of the participation fee.

It sounds like a pretty sweet deal to me for the property manager, which shows how much trouble Accelerate is actually in with Fourways Mall. Sadly when egos get in the way (like the desire to own the biggest mall in the country), it’s quite easy for things to go wrong.

A circular is being prepared for shareholders with full details, so shareholders will have a chance to vote on the intended transaction.

NEPI Rockcastle looks as solid as ever (JSE: NRP)

The reputation as one of the best REITs on the local market has been earned

NEPI Rockcastle has released results for the six months to June. They reflect ongoing strong performance in the Central and Eastern European markets that NEPI has focused on, with one of the key drivers of performance being stronger sales for tenants within the retail portfolio. This allows NEPI to keep putting up base rentals as tenants want to be in those spaces, with the added benefit of turnover-based rentals as well.

All of this has contributed to net operating income (NOI) increasing by 13.5%, helped greatly by property operating expenses dropping by 3.3% thanks to energy efficiencies. We find ourselves in an environment of expensive debt, so this could only translate into growth in distributable earnings per share of 5.6%. Another major reason for the modest increase in HEPS relative to NOI is the increase in number of shares in issue, a feature of property funds that offer scrip dividend alternatives where shareholders can elect to receive shares rather than cash.

The payout ratio is 90%, so most of the earnings go to shareholders as dividends. This is because the balance sheet is in great shape, with a loan-to-value ratio of 32.2%. That’s in the sweet spot for where a REIT should be when interest rates are relatively high.

For the full year, distributable earnings per share guidance has been upgraded. After initially expecting growth of 4%, they are now expecting 5.5% – essentially a continuation of the performance in the first half of the year.

No final dividend at Sasol (JSE: SOL)

The focus is on reducing debt levels in the group

Sasol has released results for the year ended June. Although there was improvement in the second half of the year, the approach of recognising substantial impairments in this period has been accompanied by the disappearance of the final dividend. The new management team is giving themselves the cleanest possible slate to work off, including on the balance sheet.

The distinction between operating profit and EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is very important here. The former excludes the impairments and the latter is net of impairments. When the impairments came to R74.9 billion, that’s a rather large difference.

Here’s what that looks like on the income statement, showing that the huge swing into losses really has been driven by impairments, rather than any kind of catastrophe in the operating profit line, which fell by 13.2% to R48.1 billion:

You’ll notice that there’s a small difference between the remeasurement items of R75.4 billion and the impairments of R74.9 billion. This is because there are a few other things in there other than impairments.

You might also have noticed the significant distortion in the tax rate this year. Even if we ignore the impairments, a drop in operating profits should’ve led to a lower tax amount vs. last year, rather than the tax expense almost doubling. There are a whole bunch of complications in the tax that aren’t reversed out in the headline earnings calculation, contributing to HEPS falling so severely even though operating profit really didn’t do that badly.

So, speaking of HEPS, that metric has fallen by a rather ugly 66% to R18.19. That’s a long way down from R53.75 in FY23 and R47.58 in FY22. Finance costs didn’t help here, increasing from R9.2 billion to R10.4 billion at a time when operating profits went backwards. This is a perfect example of how financial leverage takes a percentage move in operating profit and amplifies it into a larger move in net profit.

Sasol’s dividend policy is now to pay 30% of free cash flow as a dividend, but only if net debt (excluding leases) is below $4.0 billion. They are currently on $4.1 billion, so they are using that as the basis for there to be no final dividend for this period. They will look to reduce debt and thus finance costs, which will help HEPS going forward.

I must also point out that the previous dividend policy was based on HEPS rather than free cash flow, so they’ve made a substantial change here. Free cash flow is net of capex, so a period of heavy investment by Sasol would negatively impact dividends. This is probably a more sensible approach anyway.

The market didn’t like it, with dividend-focused investors running for the hills. Sasol closed 6.5% lower for the day.

To make sure you have access to full details and because Sasol values the Ghost Mail investor community, the company has placed its results in Ghost Mail here.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • A family trust linked to the founding family at Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) has sold shares in the company worth R11.1 million.
    • An associate of a director of Telkom (JSE: TKG) bought shares in the company worth R61k. Telkom’s share price has been largely ignored in the GNU-phoria period and this could be one to watch.
    • The minor child of a director of OUTsurance Group (JSE: OUT) bought shares worth R100. Not only must you start ’em young, but you must do so with small amounts! The same director is also on the board of WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC) and the minor child popped R100 into those shares as well. Nothing like a balanced portfolio.
  • Is there more deal activity on the horizon at Trematon Capital (JSE: TMT)? There could well be, with the company releasing a cautionary announcement about a potential disposal of one of the investments in the group. Remember, the company recently announced the disposal of 60% in GenEx to a Middle East-based investor. They’ve been busy at Trematon!
  • I’m becoming immensely tired of Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) using SENS as a free public relations platform. SENS isn’t there for general business-as-usual announcements. The latest such announcement is that Kibo is refurbishing another genset. Perhaps next week they will let us know what they are ordering for the office lunch.
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