Alphamin had a strong 2025 despite security challenges (JSE: APH)

And the share price has rewarded those who took a punt

To say that Alphamin has been on a choppy journey would be an understatement. Check out this share price:

There’s clearly plenty of money that could’ve been made along the way, but it’s also possible to have bought the early peaks and been flat for the past few years. Also take note of the horrible dip in early 2025 in response to security fears in the DRC. The share price is up more than 2.2x since then!

This recovery has been driven by the only thing that investors want to see: tin coming out of the ground and producing cash. The security risks are never zero, which is why African mining businesses tend to trade at valuations that consider the risk. But as cash is banked and the balance sheet is shored up, investors breathe a collective sigh of relief – and pay more for the shares.

Alphamin has now released the results for the year and quarter ended December 2025. FY25 tin production was up 7% and sales volumes increased 4%. But thanks to a 13% jump in the average tin price achieved, EBITDA was up by a juicy 25%. Remember, this was despite the security issues in March/April that led to a suspension in operations. Shareholders will be more than happy with that!

Looking at Q4 vs. Q3 as a measure of momentum, tin production dipped 4% and sales were down 2%. The average tin price rose by 12% though (yes, quarter-on-quarter!) and so EBITDA increased by 13%. Production will always be volatile if you isolate each quarter, as mining isn’t exactly flipping burgers.

The encouraging element of this update is the momentum in the tin price and what this means for earnings, while recognising that FY25 was a strong year overall despite such challenges.

Alphamin’s cash balance improved from $30 million to $56 million over 12 months. Their next dividend decision will be made in April 2026. Naturally, the current trajectory of tin prices is bullish for cash payments to shareholders. They just need that trajectory to continue.

On the exploration side, recent drilling at Mpama South and Mpama North has delivered disappointing results. Although this doesn’t affect near-term cash flows, this is something investors will need to consider in terms of the longer-term value of the project and the valuation that it trades at.

Here’s another thing investors need to think about: CEO Maritz Smith has decided to retire after more than six years. The current CFO, Eoin O’Driscoll, will step up to the CEO role. JP van Staden, previously the CFO of the operating subsidiary in the DRC, will take the group CFO role. It’s always good to see internal succession like this.

Sibanye-Stillwater plots a way forward with lithium (JSE: SSW)

A staged approach is preferred for the Keliber project in Finland

Sibanye-Stillwater can certainly breathe a sigh or two of relief at the moment. The incredible PGM rally as a follow-on to the gold rally has delivered a share price return of a whopping 320% in the past year. And if you can believe it, the return over 5 years is just 12%! When people talk about cyclical companies, this is the kind of business they are referring to.

With the core business printing cash at the moment, Sibanye can afford to dedicate more time and attention to some of the other investments in the group, like the Keliber lithium project in Finland. These projects are all about careful planning, particularly in the context of market conditions.

The cold commissioning of the fully integrated project is on track for Q1 2026 with a total capital investment of around €783 million. But the real focus is on the plan for the ramp-up of the project and pathway to production, with a staged approach agreed between Sibanye and its partner in the project, Finnish Minerals Group.

This partner, owned by the State of Finland, intends to participate in further equity funding on a pro rata basis in terms of its existing stake of 20%. This is a strategically important project in the EU. Given the geopolitical environment at the moment, anything that improves European independence from other major regions will be given priority.

What does a staged approach really mean? Essentially, they are maintaining maximum flexibility and moving carefully through the pre-operational phase. This includes engaging with potential strategic off-takers as well. If you can imagine a game of hide-and-seek, this approach means checking each room carefully and plotting your move into the next one, rather than charging through the house to see what might happen behind the curtains.

Nibbles:

• Director dealings:
  • An executive of Investec (JSE: INL | JSE: INP) sold shares worth R4.5 million.
  • A director of Dipula Properties (JSE: DIB) bought shares worth R167k.

• Europa Metals (JSE: EUZ) will pay a return of capital to shareholders in February 2026 after shareholders approved the payment at a general meeting. The amount is 21.993 cents per share.

• Numeral (JSE: XII) has confirmed that the 10:1 share consolidation will be completed by 2nd February. This is an important step to take the company out of impractical “penny stock” territory where there isn’t a practical bid-offer spread.