One year on: Ukraine

In the week of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is worth pondering the impact this event has had on the global economy and how it is likely to play out in the future. Chris Gilmour digs in.

Without wishing to labour the point, and without indulging in whataboutism, let me be clear that I view Russia’s invasion as being an act of naked aggression that goes entirely against all norms of a rules-based society. And if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, that won’t be the end of the story. Far from it. Moldova, Romania and Poland will be next, regardless of their EU/Nato membership.

To be sure, the Americans have no doubt gotten involved in similar atrocities over the years, such as their involvement in the Balkans, Iraq and Libya to name but a few, but the economic repercussions were relatively contained. This doesn’t make Russia’s involvement any more palatable, however, as two wrongs don’t make a right.

It has been said that when war comes, the first casualty is the truth. And that is very true, from a variety of perspectives. There can be little doubt that Vladimir Putin firmly believes his own rhetoric when he talks about re-incorporating Ukraine into the greater Russia, regardless of the fact that Ukraine has been a sovereign country ever since the fall of the USSR.

Already, this campaign has claimed many lives on both sides.

Russia does not disclose casualties but the Armed Forces of Ukraine estimate that approximately 135,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far.  Ordinarily, this would be regarded as a massive setback for any country, until one realises where those casualties are concentrated amongst the Russian forces. These are not primarily soldiers from Moscow or St Petersburg, but tend to be conscripts from faraway areas of the Russian Federation such as Chechnya for example. Recently, these forces have been augmented by The Wagner Group of mercenaries, which in turn have been recruiting troops from Russian prisons.

Russia, like China and Japan, is suffering from de-population. As a direct consequence of the Lewis Turning Point, there physically aren’t enough people in the country to keep the economy ticking over, nevermind losing them on the battlefield. The stories of Ukrainian children being abducted and taken back to Russia are not just urban legend. This is one of the few ways left for Russia to try to reverse its current de-population trend and only time will tell if it has succeeded.

The one factor that has astonished western military experts about this whole campaign is the relative ineffectiveness of the Russian armed forces. A year ago, most experts would have given Ukraine virtually no chance against the big bad Russian bear. But within days, it became glaringly obvious that the Russian military wasn’t even close to the might of the old Red Army that trundled into Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. This is a hollowed-out version that lacks basic logistics capabilities, that has yawning gaps in its non-commissioned officer ranks and where motivation levels among recruits is exceedingly low. Putting these and other factors together adds up to a dismal cocktail.

And yet, Putin keeps throwing ever more manpower against Ukraine. His empty threats regarding nuclear retaliation carry even less weight than they did when first he first uttered them a few months ago. The west realises that he’s just bluffing. But eventually there will come a point where Russia physically runs out of people in the necessary demographic to maintain its presence in Ukraine. That point is perhaps not too far off now.

If this hypothesis is correct, and Ukraine starts making noticeable incremental territorial gains during the spring and summer, we can reasonably expect desperate counter-measures from the Russians. These may include the use of chemical weapons and so-called “dirty bombs”- ordnance wrapped around small pieces of radioactive material.

There is no room for negotiation on either side. Ukraine is determined to have its territory back to pre-2014 levels and is not prepared to discuss the matter. It is particularly keen to have the Crimean Peninsula back. The Russians are equally determined not to give an inch. However, if enough pressure can be brought to bear on Russia in the form of economic sanctions coupled with crushing defeat on the battlefield, it will have no choice but to retreat.

Throughout its long history, Russia has gone to war with many nations, which is hardly surprising, considering its extensive land mass that borders many other countries. And its track record in these wars is not inspiring, other than in World War 2, when it came back after losing many millions on the battlefield to defeat Nazi Germany on the Eastern Front.  Russia/the USSR has been beaten in many wars over the centuries. It is not and never has been invulnerable. For the sake of a long-lasting peace, it is important that Russia is soundly defeated in Ukraine.

This article reflects the views and opinions of its author, Chris Gilmour.