Sunday, September 14, 2025
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Ghost Stories #71: ETFs are like a box of biscuits – how do you pick a flavour?

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) offer diversified exposure through a single investment, just like buying a box of biscuits and getting to enjoy a variety of flavours inside. But if you don’t know how to read a fact sheet or assess which ETFs you like, then there’s no way of knowing what’s in the box. We don’t buy biscuits without the packaging making it clear what’s inside. We shouldn’t buy ETFs like that either!

To help bridge the gap and enhance your understanding of what to look for when selecting ETFs and reading fact sheets, Siyabulela Nomoyi (Quantitative Portfolio Manager at Satrix*) joined me on this podcast. It offers an excellent learning experience for both experienced and newer investors in ETFs.

Listen to the podcast here:

Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to the Ghost Stories podcast and on this edition we are speaking once more to Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix*. Siya, you are a regular voice on this podcast. You always bring not just great insights I think, but passion for the markets as well, which is fantastic. It’s a really big feature of how you conduct yourself in the markets. And anyone who follows you on X or any of the other social media platforms will know this about you. Certainly anyone who’s listened to this podcast.

And what I’m looking forward to today is we are going to dig into some real nuts and bolts around not just what ETFs are and the different types and all of that, but also how to understand them better, how to actually do the research, the really practical stuff around adding them to your portfolio.

So, Siya, thank you so much for joining me as always. It’s lovely to have you and I’m keen to dig in here.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Hi Ghost, and hi to our listeners as well. Always great to be on your podcast. Third one this this year, hey! Officially a hat-trick.

The Finance Ghost: Season ticket.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, who’s counting? But thanks for inviting me again. Very keen to dive into today’s topic and see if we can educate people more on ETFs.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. No, it’s great to have you and let’s dive straight in. It’s something I have discussed on this podcast before, I don’t think with you, is the concept of whether ETFs are active or passive. I know it’s something I’ve definitely debated with the likes of Nico. The point is that I think the mechanics of an ETF are passive in nature in that it’s a rules-based investment mechanism essentially, or investment structure. But you’ve still gotta decide which ETF you wanna buy, right? And that’s an active decision. No one else is gonna do that for you.

Let’s just set the scene here in terms of how broad ETF landscape is, because I think sometimes people underestimate just how active that decision is. It’s not like you have one or two or even three to choose from – there are a lot of ETFs aren’t there?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: I guess we’ll speak more about the JSE-listed ETFs today. But it’s quite remarkable how large the universe of ETFs is when you’re looking at it globally as well. I mean we’re talking about 14,000 or even higher than that in terms of ETFs which are listed globally. That’s a huge number and I think that’s like a quarter of the number of listed stocks worldwide. That growth has been really fuelled by the idea of indexation – so not trying to be “clever” if I can say that, and just tracking the particular index like the S&P 500 or the FTSE/JSE All Share index, which are traditionally known as passive investing – more vanilla index tracking in my preference, as there’s absolutely nothing passive about it. We’ll get to that later on. Innovation has quickly started to spin off other product ranges from that – sector ETFs, thematic ETFs, factor ETFs, there’s bonds, there’s money market and so on. And then moving away from equity-based ETFs as I mentioned, there’s innovation in other asset classes like bond ETFs, commodity ETFs.

And really the rise of retail clients. I think we spoke about that in our previous podcast, this really pushed providers to innovate even more on these products eventually to the point that you have raised, that clients start to need to actually take active decisions to switch between these exposures.

So in as much as you can look at it as passive investing, you have to actively decide on which ones you’re actually investing in. And then now we also have actively managed ETFs as well, which we can speak to as well later on. But pulling this back into the South African market, there are quite a lot of ETFs listed on the JSE – 115 to be exact, index tracking ETFs and active ETFs. So 115 ETFs Ghost – again approximately a quarter of the number of stocks listed on the JSE, if I’m not mistaken. But that number is even more significant if you look at it versus the number of liquid stocks on the JSE – probably looking at 90 to 100 very liquid stocks on the JSE. There are more ETFs than our liquid stocks which are listed on the JSE. Investors actually are looking at a very large universe to make decisions to which ones they want to hold on their investment portfolios.

So I think in our local market we have quite a broad number of ETFs, but in terms of themes that those ETFs can capture, there’s still lots of work to do there. There’s quite a lot of overlap from providers, first of all, and the other part is – well, when I say overlap, you have for instance, three or four providers which have an MSCI World Index Tracking ETF or an S&P 500 Index Tracking ETF. And in terms of the assets under management, there’s like 50% of the AUM in ETFs that are offshore equities, but providers issuing the same index track as I mentioned, and very low representation of multi-assets ETFs, bond ETFs as well. There’s around 15 or so bond ETFs, whether you combine that offshore and onshore. In terms of AUM, that’s only like 6% of the total market of the ETF. And then we have local equity ETFs with Satrix having launched the first ever local ETF – that’s why we’re here – listed on the JSE, Satrix Top 40, since 2000, so celebrating 25 years this year. And then there’s commodity ETFs and so on.

So there’s quite a nice universe of ETFs for clients to choose from. That is where their active decision actually comes in.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, 25 years – that’s amazing actually. Congratulations! And talking 25 years, quarter of a century, something you mentioned there – more than a quarter of the stocks on the JSE. I suspect it’s even more than that actually from an ETF percentage perspective, because there’s been so many delistings on the JSE. I’m not actually sure what the number is. I think it’s 300 and something stocks on the JSE. But as you say, the investable universe, the practically investable universe is actually a lot smaller. ETFs as a percentage of the practically investable universe – very, very high.

And the other thing I just wanted to touch on, you mentioned some of the growth in international ETFs there and thematic ETFs and absolutely, there’s some fascinating stuff overseas. A perfect example – the other day I was looking at European stocks and obviously one of the areas that have done really well in Europe this year is defence stocks, because there’s had to be this big uptick in spend by European governments on defence because the US has kind of said, listen, it’s time that you guys pulled your weight. So that’s been great for European defence stocks.

And there the power of an ETF is you don’t have to actually go and do tons of research on each underlying one and try and pick the winner. Especially if you go in with basically zero knowledge, which I would say, on average is the amount of knowledge that any of us here in South Africa would have about European defence stocks. You’re not going to find too many people in the street who can tell you the difference between the European defence stocks and what each company does. So there’s a good example of where you can go and do something thematic on the global market. You can go find an ETF. You know – there is an ETF for that, as the old joke goes, and you can go and research it and we’ll talk more about how you research these ETFs just now on the show.

Then locally, as you said, lots of opportunity, lots of JSE-listed ETFs that reference international markets as well as local markets, many of which are of course offered by Satrix. And like you say, work to be done.

I think on some of the thematic stuff – on a few of these podcasts before, I’ve been calling for something like a retail ETF. It feels like we have this big retail sector on the JSE, but there’s no ETF that just brings it all together. We’ve got property ETFs, we’ve got resources ETFs, but we don’t have a retail ETF which would let you take a view on South African consumers in one instrument. So I think we’ll see more and more developments over time, and I hope to see some of this stuff coming through.

Before we get into some of the different types of ETFs though, I don’t want to lose that point around actively managed ETFs, because that’s a relatively new thing. Maybe we could just spend a minute understanding what an actively managed ETF actually is, and then I’m quite keen to dig into some of the other types of ETFs and some of the buckets that we’ll see.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, so normally the clients would think of ETFs as this fund which tracks a certain index, and that’s what you get from it. If the return on the index was 10%, the ETF’s mandate is to actually get that 10%. But there’s another space, because when we look at the investment spectrum at Satrix, we’ll look at three one perspectives. So there will be the vanilla space, which will be just standard market cap weighting indices which can be tracked. And then you can move on to a more complicated part where you are trying to move away from the market cap weighting and tilting your weights towards a certain point in terms of whatever the conditions would be. So that would be your factor space. And then eventually, you get to a part where the recipe, you can’t find it on the internet. So it’s like – conviction, the provider will select stocks based on research that they’ve done. They will overweight those stocks based on that and they will change between styles. They’ll have be either a value manager at one point and then eventually there’ll be a momentum manager, they switch to quality and that changes with time. And you can’t – you don’t know how they determine that. They’ll just provide their active decision.

That segment of the market has been mostly through unit trusts or segregated funds. But there is a movement of people getting that exposure through actively managed ETFs where the provider has this way of creating a bucket based on whatever the recipe is, trying to beat a certain index instead of tracking that index. And then you have this bucket of those shares and then that will translate to this ETF that actually is feeding through that bucket of stocks.

Creation of the basket is no longer this vanilla way of weighting the stocks or the constituents in them, there is an active decision to actually create the weights or the constituents, moving them in and out of that ETF, so that the investment decision inside that bucket is actually active and then that translates into an ETF.

So that’s where these active actively managed ETFs are coming from. Their target would not necessarily be tracking an index – there will be an index, but they want to actually have a higher return versus that and they’ll switch between different indices or different constituents based on that. They no longer have to be constrained to the fact that they are tracking a particular index. They actively want to actually have a return that’s over and above a particular index.

That’s where the space has come from. I mean that’s been coming the last four, five years or so. And there’s quite a number of them listed on the JSE. If I’m not mistaken, there’s about 93 vanilla tracking ETFs and then the rest of that 115 is actively managed. I might have my numbers incorrect there, but they’ve been listing for some time now and the market has adapted very well on that.

The Finance Ghost: That is interesting. Look, I’m sure your numbers are pretty close to right. You’re willing to put 93 out there as a guess. Most people would just say, you know “roughly 90”, but Siya, you know your stuff. I’m guessing when you say 93 with that amount of confidence, I suspect you are not far off the mark at all.

Of course, within those 93 – that’s sort of the traditional ETFs, the way people understand them. And just for people listening to this, don’t get confused by everything we just talked about there with actively managed ETFs. That is a very specific type of ETF. It’s still a small part of the market. It’s not a traditional ETF in the way people really understand them, which is a very rules-based, index-tracking type of fund. That is essentially what an ETF is.

And typically when you say to people, oh, what are the, you know, big buckets of ETFs, the different types? I think the thing that would come up all the time is offshore versus local. I think a lot of investors understand that there’s an ETF for the S&P 500, there’s one for the Nasdaq, if you want to own the Euro Stoxx, if you want to own China, if you want to do MSCI World. And there’s a lot of overlap among providers, as you say, in some cases there isn’t. Sometimes there’s only one provider doing something specific. But then you get a lot of local ETFs as well that track not just the JSE Top 40, but the Resources index, some of the others as well.

So there are a lot of different buckets and I think offshore versus local is kind of the easy one. But obviously there’s some problems there in that for example, you go and buy a JSE Top 40 ETF – it might be local in terms of its JSE listed stocks, but they look-through exposure is so international in nature. I mean it’s Prosus, Naspers, Richemont, British American Tobacco, gold stocks – these things are not based on what’s going on on the ground in South Africa, which is really interesting. But you’ve actually highlighted some other types of ETFs in one of your earlier discussion points here on this podcast. I think let’s just touch on some of those buckets, because local versus international is just one of them. There are other different buckets that you can use to categorise ETFs, right?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah. So I mean just to go back to what you were saying Ghost, I think it’s a very important point in terms of just the look-through when you’re looking at the indices because that also just helps clients in terms of what they’re looking for when they’re looking at broader indices or something like the Top 40 index in as much as it’s locally listed stocks. If you’re looking at the revenue exposure on that it’s like 60% / 70% offshore. So you do have a listing onshore, but what you’re actually exposed to is outside South Africa.

And that’s a very important point because the primary reason why after the JSE decided to do the whole index harmonisation, changing the way that they weight the All Share to how the SWIX is actually calculated, therefore just upweighting the more SA in stocks because the All Share, if you’re looking at it, its history it was more offshore. But the way that the SWIX is weighted is looking at is what the STRATE ownership is and then that’s eventually upweighting the SA Inc part. And then eventually Satrix also after that we launched the Global Investing ETF which is also just giving you total rand hedge exposure as well. And then the SA Inc will sit on the SWIX.

So it’s very important to – just apart from the fact that it’s a vanilla tracking index that’s giving you locally listed ETFs. If you’ve got the information and if you’ve got the data, you can actually look even further and see what kind of exposure you’re getting from there. So what you’ve mentioned now is that this is where people actually need to start putting in some work Ghost, because there are layers to actually uncover when you start talking about the types of ETFs.

One of the podcasts that I’ve recorded with you is that you made this cool example about ETF investing, likening it to someone walking into a store I think and there’s different aisles to actually go through where they can go and pick what they want according to what they wanted in their basket at that time. And I think it’s a great example because even in that case when you go into an aisle of let’s say biscuits, you’re not only going to see one type of or one brand, you will have to look into what’s on offer. So different brands of biscuits. From that 115 ETFs that I’ve mentioned, sticking to your example, investors can work through these aisles where they can divide the shop in half. Then one side is the offshore side and then the other one is the local ETF exposure side.

And then if you start on the offshore side, they’re able to select ETFs that give you exposure to offshore equities and then to decide what they feel like. Something like a US-flavoured ETF like this one that’s actually tracking the S&P 500 index. Or they could be looking at the Nasdaq-tracking ETF, or they would like an Asian flavour by looking into the China tracking ETFs like the Satrix China ETF, or Satrix India ETF. So investors can actually have country specific exposures.

Or, they could even – using the biscuit example – they could go to Choice Assorted where they buy this box filled with different biscuits in it – it could be an ETF like the Satrix MSCI ACWI ETF that’s got 23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets exposure. So that’s all in one. You don’t have to go and pick each of those different types.

But still sticking to the offshore side, there’s also a choice of offshore nominal bonds as well like the Setrix Global Bond ETF. Then there’s quite a lot of thematic exposures in that offshore side to choose from. If there’s interest in infrastructure, ESG, offshore property and so on.

That’s quite a long answer Ghost. But when you move to the local section, you get the same in terms of the types of ETFs but the themes actually change when you come to South Africa. There’s plenty of equity tracking ETFs like the Top 40 and others and local bonds, whether you’re looking at nominal or ILB. There’s also a choice of whether you want specific sector exposure. So, you want property exposure, you want RESI, you want INDI, you want Financials – it’s your choice. Or you can even take it further. If you want high dividend yield stocks you also get an option actually to buy an ETF that tracks stocks which historically pay high dividends, so that’s also available there.

And then lastly, staying on the shop and aisle example because I love it so much. So now you leave all the aisles and go to the back section of the shop where there’s ready-cooked meals and you can sort of put stuff together. Put a plate together and it’s ready and wrapped for you. And that’s where the multi-asset ETFs come in. So it’s a mix of different flavours of different foods or different types of foods, they’re all wrapped into one. That’s where you get exposure to equities, bonds, properties offshore and so on, all in just one plate and it’s all wrapped up for you and ready to go. So those would be the different types of ETFs that you can get and how you can actually go about looking at which ones are available.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I love the biscuits example. So we’re recording this on a Friday and if your Formula One t-shirt didn’t give me a clue that you’re ready for the weekend, Siya, I think the biscuits example certainly does. I love that that’s your go-to. I think it’s great that you can kind of walk down the aisles and pick and choose what you’re looking for. And we’re going to start speaking shortly about how you research and understand these ETFs. And that’s really how you look at what’s on the box and say, well, here’s what’s inside, what do I feel like?

But I think before we get there, there’s definitely – aside from talking about lots of other ways to slice and dice this, like market cap weightings and equal weightings and factors and all of that, maybe we’ll see if we have time for that at the end because I don’t want to lose the point around the MDD research, that’s minimum disclosure documents – but before we get to that, what we need to talk about is the different risk profiles across all these ETFs, because I think that is an important point to land for anyone listening to this podcast or reading this transcript.

ETFs do not have equal risk profiles. They might all be ETFs, they might all be tracking an index, but they have very, very, very different underlying risk profiles, right? What should you say there to help someone as they pick the biscuits off the shelf, Siya? How should they think about the risk of those biscuits?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: So just going back to conversations that I’ve had in terms of retail clients when they start investing, the excitement of getting a portfolio and they’ve deposited money and then they’re investing. They’ll be excited that they’ve got 10 ETFs in their portfolio. And then when you ask them what they actually have, you’ll find that five of those are actually S&P 500 index tracking ETFs from five different providers. And in their minds, the portfolio is diversified, whereas it’s literally giving you the same thing. It’s the same index, same risk profile, just different providers, different fees that you’re actually getting.

So I think from that, people have actually moved on in terms of understanding what the difference is. But what I’m trying to say is you might have different providers, if they have got the same tracking index, it’s going to give you the same being the same risk bucket. So you need to understand what that risk means in terms of the different types of asset classes. That’s the first one. And then the other part is: how do you actually measure risk? It’s quite a tough one to explain, and also just make sure that an individual on their own understands it from their point of view in terms of what they want at the end – I think that the very important part here is the end game.

I think that the understanding of risk from clients has evolved and there’s much better understanding of it, though there’s still room for improvement here, which is why we get to record such podcasts as well. I think when it comes to risk, the client needs to understand it in terms of term. I always try to explain it in that sense – as in, how long are they willing to leave that money in that investment account? That’s the first part. So if they know that term, they’ll start to know which products actually fit in that term. Everything else really just is a spin off from that.

If you want the money to be invested, for instance, for the next 20 years versus you want the money next year January, there’s absolutely no way, no chance that you can take the same risk for those two terms. If you want the money in 20 years versus next year January, you can’t take the same risk on that. But what does that actually mean? The basic thinking behind investing, I think everyone who’s listening to this agrees that for any individual, if you buy into an asset with R100k, by the time you take out that money, you should have more than R100k after the fees. And that that R100k must have grown in such a way that it still has the same or even better buying power than when you invest it. So that’s real return versus total returns, which we can go back to and have different podcasts for that.

But that buying power needs to be there with that hundred bucks. If it was affording you a loaf of bread, milk and slice of polony or whatever, that hundred bucks, that should be there as well.

The Finance Ghost: Sho, I preferred the biscuits. Definitely preferred the biscuits to the polony, Siya.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, exactly. So if it was buying you a box of Choice Assorted for 100 bucks, this is more expensive than that anyway right now. At whatever time you want to pull out the money, it still needs to buy you that basket of biscuits and even more if possible. That’s what you want when you’re actually investing.

So what are the chances of a major loss when you invested that 100 bucks in the next year? Would it not be better to actually protect that capital rather and gain some interest or money market rates on it in the next six months? Or are you prepared to put it in an asset where you have seen major drawdowns in short periods of time? So that’s where the measure – now talking about the drawdowns, whether you can lose a lot of money in the next period or not.

That’s where the history of the asset class comes from in terms of what they’ve done historically. I think we spoke about drawdowns in the last podcast and how you measure that. So when it comes to longer term, that question actually just tends to be a bit easier to answer and people can then start taking more riskier assets into their portfolio, like foreign equity exposure and also even our onshore equity markets, which have done very, very well actually in the last 10, 20 years.

But then here you start trying to skin the cat in different ways – no cats harmed during this recording of this podcast, Ghost! Sure you can take risks, but it is rewarding over the long term. And the ETF you will consider here in order to actually diversify your overall portfolio, or whether you are doubling down on a certain theme if you hold certain ETFs, or really offering yourself the opportunity to have a good chance of good portfolio growth in that instance, ride out all the volatility you will experience in the next 20 years. That depends on if you are comfortable with that risk profile.

So each ETF listed on the JSE will tell you what the risk profile is. You will get these different statuses, whether it’s low risk, moderate risk or moderate-to-aggressive or aggressive risk. So that will feed into how long you want to actually hold your investment. The risk part of investing is quite tricky and I would encourage everyone, especially if they just started to really consider, to understand this part very well before they dive into the unknown. Most of the time this leads to panic trading. And I mean someone will put in the hundred bucks today – I think on social media people were posting about the All Share hitting a 100,000 points, first time in history. If they invested at that time and they come back now, it’s like 97,000 points, they panic because they don’t understand what’s going on or the risk of that investing on that type of asset class. It’s just a matter of understanding why it will move from that point to 97 all of a sudden, but it can actually move up again. How long are you willing to actually ride out those waves? And if you’re doing that panic trading and you’re constantly in and out of different positions, you’re eroding your investments because you continue locking in losses while you’re actually paying a lot of progress.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I agree. I’ve got to say, even within the high-risk bucket that a lot of these equity – pure equity funds would get put into, I mean there’s high risk and then there’s very high risk. If you buy an ETF that is a broad market index, it’s going to probably come through on the MDD as high risk because equity is high risk. But relative to going and buying a very thematic ETF on some or another kind of quite tech-heavy, I mean let’s use something crazy like a biotechnology ETF overseas – that is super high risk, but in all likelihood it’s kind of just going to get shown on the same risk bucket.

So again, this is why it’s important – yes, ETFs are passive, but the decision to invest in them is active. And the research that you need to do to understand this is active. And I definitely want to spend a few minutes just talking through minimum disclosure documents and fact sheets. I’ll tell you what I love the most about fact sheets actually is to look at the constituents. And that’s because I love doing the bottom-up, what’s in here kind of analysis. And if you go and you download any fact sheet or MDD for any ETF, it’ll show you at least roughly its top 10 holdings. Now what’s interesting with that is it’s a very good way to go and see, oh, you’re interested in the top 40. Okay, well there’s a Satrix 40 ETF and if you go and have a look at the constituents, that will actually tell you what is in the Top 40 of the JSE. You don’t even necessarily have to have a data feed from the JSE or whatever the case may be. You can just go look at the ETF for that sector and you can actually see what’s in there. It’s a really cool research tool as well. Let’s say you do want to go and do some detailed stock research on European defence stocks – I’ll just use that as another example – so you go and find the European defence ETF, which will be listed somewhere overseas. Go find the fact sheet – it doesn’t look that different overseas to what it looks like here. Go and look at the constituents and bam, there are your answers. Here are the biggest names in the game. Maybe you pick two or three to go read about as you decide okay, this is a sector I want to be invested in, I like the narrative that’s coming through from a couple of the biggest names, let me go and buy the etf.

So I think the constituents are very important part of any fact sheet. Stuff like fees as well, a bunch of other things. So, Siya, I’m going to let you bring us home on this podcast by walking us through just some of the most important areas to look at when you open up a fact sheet, you go onto the website, you find the ETF, you download the thing, you’re hit with this two or three page document. What would be the most important things to look at, for those who aren’t familiar with these things yet?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: The minimum disclosure document, so MDD for short. I’ll just say MDD throughout and other people call it fact sheets – these are actually the first bit of information that is applied to investors that is publicly available and providers have certain information that they need to disclose on it, required by regulations. And if we didn’t have MDDs online, we would answer be answering calls every two seconds because someone wants to know about the Top 40. They don’t have information online, they’ll have to call Satrix directly and they’ll have to talk to the…

The Finance Ghost: …tell us about your biscuits Siya, we want to know…

Siyabulela Nomoyi: …exactly, every two seconds…

The Finance Ghost: That’s what it will be. But it is actually – it’s like if that Choice Assorted box was just grey…

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yes!

The Finance Ghost: …had no pictures and no information, right? Like, what’s in here? You don’t know. You’re not going to buy the biscuits. It’s actually a great analogy.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, exactly. And then imagine the line with people with those grey boxes, the line going to ask the question about what is in this thing. So it’s very important to actually have that information at hand, publicly available and free. People can actually download that. We update these monthly, so the information there is quite fluid. If you go on the Satrix website, for instance, you will see that all our Collective Investment Scheme products, the unit trust ETFs which are listed on our website, each of them has own MDD. This is to help investors actually have all the basic information and very important information at hand and then to make an informed decision about what they would like to invest in.

So let’s take the Top 40 ETF as an example. You’ll see that I’ve been speaking about it quite a lot today because that’s a very big and very important ETF in our lives. If you open that on your side, the first thing you want to know as an investor is what does the fund actually track? So first and basic knowledge that this fund tracks the Top 40 index, the FTSE/JSE Top 40 index. And then the MDD will give you the information on that part. Sometimes it will be like a sentence or two, but it will describe that the index tracks, for example, the Top 40.

And then after that, what you mentioned now – the top 10, so just to give you a glimpse of what the fund actually holds. The top 10 can give you lots of stories. It can give you if the index, for instance, is quite concentrated. For instance, if you go in there and you find that one or two stocks are 50% of the index, right away you know that this is quite a concentrated index. Other ones will be very diversified index where the top one is like 4%, 5% and the weights don’t change that much, so it can also tell you the story about the concentration and how far it goes in terms of how big the constituents are in the index.

So for instance, you go to the Top 40, you’ve got Naspers as the biggest weight in there at the end of June this year, 14%. And then the next one is 6%, FirstRand and then so on and so forth. Then for interest sakes, just to see how that fund has been performing in the past, you can also look at the return profile, so that also gives you an opportunity to actually understand the return profile historically and you can understand the drawdowns that you can experience from that particular fund. This helps you have an idea of how it has done over the short and long term, over a year, three years, ten years, depending when it was launched. But it does not necessarily mean that this is how it will perform going forward. So if it’s done 10% in the last 12 months, it doesn’t necessarily mean that next 12 months are 10% as well.

The part that can well be important is the fund information bit, because there you’re told what the ETF’s listing code is, if you want to buy into the ETF. For instance, you’ll see that the Top 40 ETF is the STX40. So you can search for that if you want to invest in it, in whatever platform you’re using. And then you’re also told how much it will cost you. This helps, especially this issue of having different issuers or different providers having the same index. We’ve got three top 40 ETFs on the JSE, got four or 5 S&P500 or MSCI World indices. So you can literally just take those three providers, put them side to side, they are tracking the same index, but how do I decide which one I go? Okay, this is the TR for this one, it’s actually double the other one or it’s lower than the other one. And then you can also look at the tracking – how is the ETF better than the other in terms of tracking the index? And you can sort of choose from that.

It can help you choose the provider, understand the risk, understand the cost as well. And then you can actually make a very, very informed decision. People who really are interested in how much income for instance an ETF generates, the MDD will also show you this in the frequency of receiving dividends or the income here as well.

Going back to the part where we were talking about risk, the risk scale or the status is disclosed as well. For the top 40 it’s shown as aggressive, so this will make sense as the fund is an equity tracking fund. You can get moderate, you can also get moderate-aggressive and you also get low risk.

But your point there that you raised is very important to understand, that the equity tracking ETFs will have the same risk profile. That would be like aggressive, aggressive, aggressive. But you need to understand how aggressive it is based on whether you’re investing in a certain theme. You’re going to Resources, for instance, full-on Resources versus Top 40. Those might be aggressive, but one of them is actually more aggressive than the other. That’s where the return profile will actually tell you the story of how aggressive it is. So that can help you in terms of choosing which one based on what risk level you think you are.

So those are the important bits. The rest is really just for knowledge, like the size of the fund, how many people are investing in it, the last price and so on. As long as you get through the fund formation part, you should be good to make an informed decision, Ghost.

The Finance Ghost: Yup, Siya, I love it. There’s a lot of really good stuff in there. Thank you so much. I think that biscuit analogy will stay with me because I really do think it’s great. ETFs are those biscuits in the aisle. There are a lot of very sweet things to choose from and you’ve got to find your tastes, you’ve got to find what’s going to work for you. You’ve got to look on the boxes and decide what’s in there and if that’s what you want and all the different mixes that you can get and then compare the prices, of course, and then find what will work for you to put in your trolley.

Thank you for sharing a lot of really good insights into a part of the market that is just so important. You know, I say every time. ETFs are a core part of my portfolio. They are my building blocks. I love picking stocks. I definitely do that on top of my ETF exposure, but the ETFs are the foundation of that portfolio. They are obviously what you buy in your tax-free savings account – or at least what you are limited to buying in your tax-free savings account from an equities perspective, but that’s fine because there’s so much good stuff you can choose from. And that’s obviously what I do with my tax free savings – it’s all in ETFs.

So, Siya, thank you so much. It’s been another great show. Lots of cool stuff that we’ve covered here. In the show notes, I’ll include an example of a recent minimum disclosure document and the link where you can find them on the Satrix website. And Siya, I know you’re also very up to answering questions from people on the socials.

So if you want to chat to Siya on X or on LinkedIn, get hold of him, ask the questions, get hold of the team at Satrix, engage with them. They really do love what they do. Siya, thank you so much for coming back on the show and I look forward to the next one with you.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Awesome. Thanks, Ghost. And thanks to loyal listeners as well. Always great to be here. Until next time, eh?

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, till next time. Thank you. Ciao.

*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management. 

This podcast was first published here.

For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products

*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management.

Disclaimer:

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products

A lesson in legacy (and courage) from Jo van Gogh

You don’t need to be an art buff to recognise Starry Night, or to know that Vincent van Gogh once famously chopped off part of his ear. More than a century later, van Gogh is a global household name, with his signature style instantly recognisable even to those who’ve never set foot in a gallery. And we have one woman to thank for that. 

These days, Vincent van Gogh’s paintings are reproduced on mugs, tote bags, umbrellas, notebooks and even the occasional pair of socks. You can buy LEGO sets of his Sunflowers and Starry Night. The Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam, which contains over 700 of his paintings and drawings, typically welcomes 1.7 to 1.8 million visitors annually. 

But the math doesn’t quite add up. By the time he died at 37, Vincent van Gogh had sold just one painting. He had no gallery backing, no heirs, and no real fame to speak of. By all logic, his work should have been scattered at auctions, gathering dust in attics, or worse, lost forever. So how did his paintings end up captivating the world?

The answer to that question lies in an unlikely champion who took it upon herself to preserve not only the art, but the life story of the man himself. 

A girl called Jo

Johanna Gezina Bonger – Jo to friends – was born in Amsterdam in 1862, the fifth of seven children in a warm, musical household. Unlike her older sisters, who were kept busy with domestic duties, Jo’s cheerful nature and her position as her father’s favourite won her something unusual for a young Dutch woman of the era: the chance to pursue higher education. She studied English, earned the equivalent of a college degree, and even spent months in London working at the British Museum library.

By 17, she was keeping a diary, a habit that would one day become crucial to documenting the making of Vincent’s legacy. In her twenties, she taught English at girls’ schools in Elburg and Utrecht. Life was steady, respectable, and unremarkable.

And then her brother introduced her to a man named Theo van Gogh.

The family van Gogh

Theo, younger brother to Vincent, was an art dealer in Paris and a man very taken with Jo. After meeting her in Amsterdam, he returned the following year to declare his love. Jo was initially unimpressed, but she eventually changed her mind. The two married in April 1889 and moved to Paris, where Jo found herself not just married to Theo, but also, in a sense, to Vincent. 

The brothers were deeply entwined – emotionally, financially, and artistically. While Vincent’s mercurial personality had estranged him from the majority of his family, Theo remained his staunchest supporter, encouraging his art, providing funds, and enduring Vincent’s bouts of mental illness. Across a lifetime, they exchanged a near-daily correspondence, much of which has been preserved. Of the 844 surviving letters Vincent wrote, 663 went to Theo, and another nine were addressed jointly to Theo and his wife, Jo. By contrast, only 39 of Theo’s letters to Vincent survive, leaving us with a story told largely in Vincent’s own words.

The very first was written when Vincent was just 19, beginning simply, “My dear Theo”. At that point, Vincent’s letters were practical, almost businesslike. But as he moved through London, Paris, and the many restless stops of his life, his writing deepened. His words began to carry not just facts but feelings, describing his doubts, bursts of optimism, frustrations with the art world, and musings on life’s meaning. For Vincent, Theo was not only a financial lifeline but the person to whom he could bare his soul.

In January 1890, Jo gave birth to a son. The couple named their firstborn Vincent Willem and asked the artist to be his godfather. Vincent was elated, and soon after the baby was born, he travelled to Paris to meet his tiny namesake. The visit stirred something tender in him. In a letter to Theo, he shared, “I started right away to make a picture for him, to hang in the bedroom – branches of white almond blossom against a blue sky.”

Two deaths in six months

But happiness was fleeting. Six months after the birth of his nephew, Vincent died in France from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. A grieving Theo organised an exhibition of his brother’s paintings in his Paris apartment, but his own health was failing. He had long suffered from syphilis, and the grief of Vincent’s death seemed to accelerate his decline.

Jo tried desperately to have him treated, even bringing a Dutch physician, Frederik van Eeden, to Paris. Despite her efforts, Theo died in January 1891, roughly six months after his brother. His death made Jo a 28-year-old widow with a one-year-old son, a small apartment, and roughly 200 canvases by her late brother-in-law, which at the time were considered valueless.

The paintings no-one wanted

Advisers told her to leave the paintings in Paris, where the art world lived and where the likelihood of a sale was higher. Instead, Jo returned to the Netherlands with all of it: the canvases, sketches, and hundreds of letters from Vincent to Theo.

Though not trained in art, she’d absorbed the Parisian atmosphere of the Impressionists and Post-Impressionists. Her instinct told her that the paintings and the letters were inseparable. The letters revealed Vincent’s inner world, his philosophy, and his fierce commitment to his art. If the public could read his words, they might understand his work.

Jo’s first attempt at organising an exhibition in 1892 didn’t go smoothly. Artist Richard Roland Holst wrote scathingly:

“Mrs van Gogh is a charming little woman, but it irritates me when someone gushes fanatically on a subject she knows nothing about… She forgets that her sorrow is turning Vincent into a god.”

The condescension was typical of the art establishment’s attitude towards her: she was a grieving widow dabbling in a world she didn’t understand. But Jo kept going, driven by her determination to honour her late husband’s passion.

Building the legend

Jo’s strategy for securing Vincent’s place in art history was slow, meticulous, and calculated. She kept the paintings that she considered the strongest in her possession, loaned carefully chosen works to influential exhibitions, and steadily built relationships with critics and dealers who could champion his art.

A pivotal move came in 1914, when she edited and published the brothers’ correspondence  in Dutch. The letters, written over nearly two decades, revealed Vincent in his own words: passionate, unflinchingly honest, at times poetic, and often deeply vulnerable. They offered a raw portrait of the artist’s inner life, recasting him as the quintessential “suffering genius” and giving readers a personal connection to the man behind the canvases.

The publication was a cultural event in the Netherlands and quickly drew attention in Germany, where Jo’s partnership with prominent Berlin dealers Paul and Bruno Cassirer brought both the paintings and the letters to new audiences. Critics now had not just the visual evidence of Vincent’s genius but also his own voice to interpret it – a combination that proved irresistible.

That same year, Jo arranged for Theo’s remains to be moved to Auvers-sur-Oise, placing him where she knew he would have wanted to be – beside Vincent, beneath identical tombstones. 

First Europe, then the world

Jo knew the next frontier was America. From 1915 to 1919, she lived in New York, translating Vincent’s letters into English and promoting his work. She mounted a Fifth Avenue exhibition and began cultivating the city’s collectors and critics. By the time she returned to Amsterdam after World War I, Vincent’s name was gaining recognition across Europe and the US. 

In her later years, Jo battled Parkinson’s disease, but continued managing exhibitions, sales, and translations. When she died in 1925 at the age of 62, she was still working on the English edition of Vincent’s letters.

Her son, Vincent Willem, inherited around 400 of his namesake’s paintings, hundreds of drawings, and the brothers’ correspondence. He and later his own son continued Jo’s work, eventually leading to the founding of the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam.

History likes to frame genius as a solitary force. But sometimes, genius needs a partner. Someone who can see its worth, fight for it, and outlive it long enough to make the world notice.

Vincent van Gogh had Johanna Gezina Bonger. And thanks to her, we all know him as we do.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

UNLOCK THE STOCK: Orion Minerals

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.

We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us, as well as EasyEquities who have partnered with us to take these insights to a wider base of shareholders.

In the 60th edition of Unlock the Stock, Orion Minerals joined us for the first time to talk about the projects that they are in the process of raising money for and developing in South Africa. I co-hosted this event with Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

Watch the recording here:

Ghost Bites (DRDGOLD | Growthpoint | Master Drilling | MTN Rwanda | Resilient | South32 | Standard Bank)

DRDGOLD is loving the higher gold price (JSE: DRD)

But watch those costs

DRDGOLD is a tailings business. This means that they take previously mined material and process it again using modern technology, extracting the last bit of gold that can be economically obtained at this time.

This is a little bit like the old “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller” joke, unless the gold price is doing extremely well and thus the steamroller is taking a break from trying to squash the management team.

This was certainly the case in the year ended June, with group revenue up 26% despite a 3% decrease in gold sales. The gold price clearly did the heavy lifting here, up 31% in rand. This was good for an increase in HEPS of between 64% and 74%.

Far West Gold Recoveries contributed revenue of R2.2 billion and enjoyed a 0.5% improvement in the gold yield, which speaks to operational efficiencies and the quality of the material being processed. Over at Ergo Mining, which is significantly larger with revenue of R5.7 billion, the gold yield fell by 21% and throughput was up 21%, so they have to work much harder there to extract the gold.

Or do they? Costs at Ergo were only up 4%, so the substantial increase in throughput isn’t driving a similar increase in costs due to having fewer, hydraulically mined sites. At Far West Gold Recoveries, costs were up 8% despite the stronger yields, as the recovery process seems to be less efficient there. Thanks to the technology involved in processing the materials, the level of throughput isn’t necessarily the best predictor of costs.

Free cash flow was given a boost by capital expenditure coming in R731 million lower vs. the prior year, a drop of 24%. This was thanks to the completion of major projects. The overall swing in free cash flow was rather breathtaking, from an outflow of R1.2 billion to an inflow of R1.2 billion!

The share price is up 56% this year.


Growthpoint has fully exited NewRiver REIT (JSE: GRT)

The strategy to have a more focused group continues

You may recall that Growthpoint sold its shares in Capital & Regional in a deal announced back in 2024, with shares in NewRiver REIT as part of the settlement for that transaction.

Growthpoint has now sold off all of those shares for gross proceeds of £50.5 million. Most of the shares were acquired by NewRiver in a share buyback and the rest were placed in the market through an accelerated bookbuild.

Growthpoint gives only generic guidance around the use of the cash proceeds, but the recent narrative from the company is one of following a more focused strategy right here at home. In a country where the macro picture remains tough, having broad property exposure all over the show isn’t the right approach. Although NewRiver was offshore exposure rather than South African, there’s a push at Growthpoint to have fewer distractions for management. It will be interesting to see what Growthpoint’s next move is.


Master Drilling’s earnings might be up – and they also might be down (JSE: MDI)

Welcome to the frustrating world of wide earnings guidance

Master Drilling released a trading statement for the 6 months to June 2025. The company gives earnings guidance in both ZAR and USD, as they operate a global business where my understanding is that many of the contracts are denominated in USD.

For the period, HEPS reported in ZAR will be between 5.4% lower and 14.6% higher than the comparable period. Although the midpoint of that is in the green, it’s still a wide range that could include flat or even negative earnings. And in USD, earnings will be between 3.5% lower and 16.5% higher.

Although it doesn’t affect HEPS, there’s happy news about the Mobile Tunnel Boring Machine that was previously impaired. The group managed to finalise a contract to operate this machine, so they’ve partially reversed the impairment to the tune of $4.7 million (the total impairment in the prior year was $7.8 million).

Although you would expect the market to be happy with this, the share price fell 4.9% on the day – admittedly on thin volumes.


MTN Rwanda’s margin moved much higher (JSE: MTN)

The performance in Africa is looking better for MTN across the board

MTN Rwanda can now add its name to the list of African telecoms companies that are doing well. This is a further boost to the MTN story, one which has enjoyed considerable support on the market this year.

During a period in which the inflation rate was 5.7% in the country, total revenue grew by 11.4% – this means that they grew at double the rate of inflation. To add to that happy news, EBITDA grew by an excellent 43.7%. This boosted EBITDA margin by 9.1 percentage points to 40.4%.

As the icing on this cake, capital expenditure excluding leases fell by 61.7%, which means that free cash flow increased by a rather daft 1,804%. It’s better to just look at the numbers than the percentage in a case like that, with free cash flow of 18,913 million RWF vs. just 993 million RWF in the prior period!

Rwanda is an appealing growth market, with projected GDP growth of 7.1% for the full year. MTN shareholders certainly aren’t complaining about being exposed to it.


Things look bleak for Mozam Aluminium at South32 (JSE: S32)

Electricity is a pretty important ingredient in this recipe

In mid-July, South32 alerted the market to a significant issue at Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique. It’s pretty simple, really: no electricity means no operations. The current agreement for the supply of electricity ends in March 2026 and things aren’t looking good in the negotiations.

The counterparties are Eskom and Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB). I’m not close to the details of this, but I assume that both those parties (certainly the former) could sell their electricity elsewhere, so they don’t need South32. But South32 certainly needs them, creating a clear imbalance of power in the negotiation. I can also only assume that the deal South32 was hoping to get doesn’t provide a sufficient economic return to the electricity companies, otherwise there wouldn’t be an issue in getting this deal done.

For now, South32 will start to wind down Mozal Aluminium with the expectation of it being placed on care and maintenance from March 2026. They are recognising a massive $372 million impairment in the FY25 financials, reducing the carrying value to $68 million.

South32’s share price fell 6.3% on the day, which means it is down 17% year-to-date.


Resilient shareholders are being rewarded this year (JSE: RES)

The focus on retail properties is working

Resilient released results for the six months to June. They are a good reminder of why I far prefer listed property exposure to having any buy-to-let headaches, as Resilient is a highly liquid stock that just achieved growth in the dividend of 12.2%. I would much rather deal with a stockbroker than tenant, personally.

Aside from the benefit of a dip in interest rates in South Africa that does wonders for the profits of property funds, the South African portfolio managed net property income growth of 8.6% on a like-for-like basis. This talks directly to Resilient’s energy investments that have helped reduce exposure to ongoing increases from Eskom. When combined with a decent period of growth for retail tenants, the net result is strong.

The potential for positive reversions when there’s a change in tenant is incredible, with Resilient bringing in 79 new tenants at an average rental that was 19.5% higher than the outgoing tenants. The total base of lease renewals (including existing tenants) was for 287 renewals at rentals on average 2.2% higher than the expired leases.

Resilient’s stake in Lighthouse enjoyed a 7.9% increase in the dividend. Resilient also has direct property investments in Spain and France, in both cases in partnership with Lighthouse. Resilient now owns 27.6% of Lighthouse, having recently sold off some shares to fund other direct property opportunities.

The net asset value per share is R69.83 and the current share price is R65.38, so that’s a modest discount to NAV by REIT standards.


Double-digit growth at Standard Bank (JSE: SBK)

As a reminder, South Africa contributes roughly half of group earnings

If you’re bullish on Africa as a whole, then Standard Bank is the name among local banks that you would probably want to consider. For context, South Africa contributed earnings of R11.6 billion in the latest period and the rest of Africa was good for R9.7 billion. Offshore contributed R1.6 billion and the 40% stake in ICBC Standard Bank generated R0.8 billion. In other words, South Africa was only 49% of group earnings.

Despite a flurry of selling by directors earlier this year for whatever reason, the bank has continued to put in a solid performance. Director sales aren’t always a sign of trouble, but you should always consider them as part of your risk factors – especially when the sales are by more than one director. Some of those execs might be kicking themselves this year, depending on what they did with the money!

The strength of the recovery in Africa this year (MTN’s subsidiaries are another great example) has driven double-digit growth in both HEPS and the interim dividend for the six months to June 2025, both up 10%. Return on Equity (ROE), a key metric for banks, increased from 18.5% to 19.1%.

It all looks strong, boosted by elements like a favourable impairment environment for credit that we’ve seen across the banks. When combined with demand for credit (which is what is lacking in South Africa vs. other regions), banks make money. Standard Bank can also boast a record period for investment banking origination, with Energy and Infrastructure opportunities as the major driver.

It’s just as well that Standard Bank has such extensive operations beyond South Africa, as their macro outlook for real GDP growth in South Africa has dipped for 2025 and 2026 vs. the expectations back in March. Despite this, Standard Bank has reaffirmed its medium-term targets that reflect HEPS growth of 8% to 12%, along with ROE in the range of 18% to 22%.

The media headlines were filled with reports of Standard Bank’s CEO and CFO both planning to retire by 2027. The succession plan will be interesting to keep an eye on.

A chart of the banking Big 5 reveals that Standard Bank is second only to Capitec this year, with Nedbank as the clear laggard thanks to its SA focus. Notably, a Satrix Top 40 ETF would’ve returned 24% year-to-date, beating all of these banks:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Astonishingly, the day before Nedbank (JSE: NED) announced the acquisition of iKhokha, the managing executive of that division (Ciko Thomas) sold shares worth R1.6 million. In my opinion, this sails very close to the wind from a governance perspective. But more than that, it’s a poor signal around their belief in the SME strategy. Nedbank is pretty light on pockets of growth right now and it doesn’t look good when the executive in charge of an area where Nedbank is allocating capital is out there selling shares.
  • Despite the Renergen (JSE: REN) and ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO – coming later this month) deal still needing to meet some conditions, the approval from the Competition Commission means that the companies can already start planning their integration. They expect to achieve the fulfulment of outstanding conditions soon.
  • Not that there are exactly many Deutsche Konsum (JSE: DKR) shareholders running around, but in case you somehow fall into that category, be aware that the third quarter report has been released. The loan-to-value improved slightly but is still very high at 55.8%. The portfolio valuation suffered a negative move once again.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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Nedbank is to acquire 100% of fintech innovator iKhokha for a cash consideration of c.R1,65 billion in a deal that aligns with Nedbank’s strategy to deepen its support for SMEs through digital innovation and inclusive financial services. The transaction also marks a successful exit for the fintech’s long-standing investors – Apis Partners, Crossfin and the International Finance Corporation. iKhokha provides card machines, digital payment solutions and business tools to SMEs. The acquisition includes a comprehensive management lock-in to ensure managerial continuity and alignment with long-term growth objectives. The company will continue to operate under its own brand.

Gemfields has sold its entire interest in Fabergé to SMG Capital for US$50 million. Of this $45 million is due on completion of the sale with the remaining $5 million payable by way of quarterly royalty payments at a rate of 8% of Fabergé’s earnings. The sale concludes Gemfields strategic review and together with the discontinuance of other non-core projects, the group reflects a more streamlined and focused investment proposition with a strengthened balance sheet. The sale proceeds will provide additional working capital.

As first announced in early June, Jubilee Metals is to dispose of its chrome and PGM operations in South Africa for up to US$90 million to One Chrome, a newly incorporated SA company. The transaction has an enterprise value of $146 million which represents a 6x multiple on the FY2024 EBITDA of the assets being sold. Jubilee has received support of shareholders holding 30.42% of the issued share capital of the Group. Proceeds from the payment consideration will be employed to reduce existing bank facilities of up to $8.3 million.

The latest in a string of acquisitions by Sirius Real Estate is the Hartlebury Trading Estate in Worcestershire acquired for £101,1 million (c.R2,4 billion). The deal is transformational for the UK business which operates as BizSpace where it will increase the size of the portfolio by 18% to 8.3 million square feet, while growing the gross asset value by c.20% and immediately boosting revenues by 10%. The effective date of the acquisition is 8 August 2025.

As at 12 August 2025, 62.93% of Assura’s shareholders accepted the Primary Health Properties (PHP) revised offer, bringing to an end the battle between PHP and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts|Stonepeak Partners for control of the UK-based real estate investment trust. With the deal unconditional shareholders will receive a gross special dividend of 0.84 pence (R20.03224), payable on 26 August 2025. The revised offer remains open for acceptances until further notice.

Cilo Cybin has released the circular to shareholders of the related party acquisition of Cilo Cybin Pharmaceutical, first announced in December 2024. The deal, a SPAC requirement in terms of the JSE Listing Requirements, constitutes a reverse takeover. Shareholders will vote on 10 September 2025 on the deal with the longstop date extended to 31 October 2025.

The category 2 disposal by Deneb Investments of 195 Leicester Road to Earth Instyle for R48 million has been terminated due to the failure to pay the required deposit – a condition precedent.

The scheme conditions for the acquisition by ASP Isotopes of Renergen have been fulfilled and the company is expected to delist from the JSE on 8 September 2025. ASP Isotopes secondary inward listing on the JSE will commence on 27 August 2025.

AH-Vest shareholders have voted in favour of the scheme – Eastern Trading offered minorities 55 cents per share, a substantial premium on the 3 cents the share traded at prior to the offer. The listing of AH-Vest shares will terminate on 26 August 2025.

Creation Capital, a specialist private credit asset manager, has successfully closed a R75 million private debt investment into Quest Capital Solutions (QCS). Founded in 2012, QCS offers a suite of financing solutions/asset management, service and maintenance solutions, together with insurance for rent-to-own trucks and trailers within the SME sector. Approximately 48% of QCS’s client base comprises black-owned enterprises. Funds will be used to expand operations, reach new markets and serve a broader range of clients within the transport sector.

Kogae Rainbow Investment, a South African investment management firm, has acquired a 65% stake in Boomgate, a local provider of high-security access solutions. The acquisition includes both Boomgate Systems and Boomgate International. The investment will accelerate Boomgate’s growth, expand its international footprint, particularly across Africa. Financial details were undisclosed.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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Growthpoint Properties has successfully placed 67,4 million NewRiver REIT shares which it acquired as part consideration for selling its stake in Capital & Regional, raising gross proceeds of £50,5 million. 47,7 million shares were acquired by NewRiver REIT at a price of 75 pence per share in terms of a share buyback by the company and the remaining 19,7 million shares were placed in the market by means of an accelerated bookbuild programme at 75 pence per share. The cash proceeds of the placement will be used by Growthpoint to strengthen its current balance sheet position and to pursue select investment opportunities.

In terms of the revised offer from Primary Health Properties (PHP), Assura shareholders will be paid a special dividend in lieu of and representing an acceleration of the quarterly dividend due during October. Following the announcement that the revised offer had become unconditional, shareholders will now receive a gross special dividend of 0.84 pence (R20.03224), payable on 26 August 2025. In addition, in terms of the mix and match election offer to Assura shareholders by PHP, 792,655,708 new PHP shares were issued and listed this week with a value of c.R17,5 billion. The revised offer remains open for acceptances until further notice.

The JSE has notified shareholders that the listings of Kibo Energy and Sable Exploration Mining have been suspended with immediate effect for failing to publish financial statements within the prescribed period as stipulated in the JSE Listing Requirements.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Glencore’s current share buy-back programme plans to acquire shares of an aggregate value of up to US$1 billion. The shares will be repurchased on the LSE, BATS, Chi-X and Aquis exchanges and is expected to be completed in February 2026. This week 2,9 million shares were repurchased at an average price of £2.83 per share for an aggregate £8,17 million.

In May 2025 Tharisa announced it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to US$5 million. Shares have been trading at a significant discount, having been negatively impacted by the global commodity pricing environment, geo-political events and market volatility. Over the period 4 to 8 August 2025, the company repurchased 22,136 shares at an average price of R20.44 on the JSE and 341,126 shares at 86.14 pence per share on the LSE.

In May 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £200 million, taking the total amount to be repurchased by 31 December 2025 to £1,1 billion. The extended programme is being funded using the net proceeds of the block trade of shares in ITC to institutional investors. This week the company repurchased a further 588,198 shares at an average price of £42.51 per share for an aggregate £24,99 million.

During the period 4 to 8 August 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 1,914,429 Prosus shares for an aggregate €96,33 million and Naspers, a further 177,668 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R996,15 million.

Five companies issued profit warnings this week: Thungela Resources, Impala Platinum, KAP, Truworths International and Master Drilling.

During the week two companies issued or withdrew cautionary notices: ArcelorMittal and Blue Label Telecoms.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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Rwanda and Kenya-based EV energy tech company, Ampersand, has announced the successful close of a funding round to scale up its operations across East Africa. The round included new working capital investment from British International Investment, new equity investments from Seedstars Africa Ventures, Gaia Impact, the Rwanda Green Fund and Raspberry Syndicate, as well as increased investments from existing partners including Ecosystem Integrity Fund, AHL Ventures, Acumen, HEHF, and TotalEnergies.

HoneyCoin, a Kenyan fintech startup, has raised US$4,9 million in seed equity funding from Flourish Ventures, TLcom Capital, Stellar Development Foundation, Lava, Musha Ventures, 4DX Ventures, Antler, and Visa Ventures. HoneyCoin has built a complete solution that operates as a multi-product one-stop-shop infrastructure platform offering services that span local payouts and collections, cross-border FX settlement, and treasury management.

Nulla Group, a Cameroon-based maize aggregator and processor has received a US$1,5 million working capital loan from Sahel Capital through its Social Enterprise Fund for Agriculture in Africa (SEFAA). Nulla Group, a women-led enterprise that is building resilient supply chains and transforming the maize value chain in Cameroon will utilise the funding to scale operations and improve service delivery to farmers and clients.

Lagos-based food delivery startup, Chowdeck, has raised US$9 million in Series A funding to launch a quick commerce strategy and expand into more cities in Nigeria and Ghana. The equity round was led by Novastar Ventures, with participation from Y Combinator, AAIC Investment, Rebel Fund, GFR Fund, Kaleo, HoaQ, and others. Founded in October 2021 by Aluko, Olumide Ojo, and Lanre Yusuf, Chowdeck now operates in 11 cities across Nigeria and Ghana, serving 1,5 million customers with a network of more than 20,000 riders.

Ethiopian Investment Holdings, the nation’s sovereign fund has acquired a 7.4% stake in Scandinavian-based gold producer Akobo Minerals AB through the subscription of 15,000,000 new shares in a private placement, at a subscription price of US$0.20 per share, raising total gross proceeds of US$3 million. The funds will be used to enable the construction of a new vertical shaft that is expected to significantly increase monthly production from 5–10 kilograms to 50–80 kg.

Subject to board approval, the African Development Bank will provide US$500 million in financing to build a new international airport in Ethiopia. The bank has also been appointed as the initial mandated lead arranger, global coordinator and book runner to mobilise nearly US$8 billion of the US$10 billion needed for the mega project launched with Ethiopian Airlines. Located 40 km’s south of Addis Ababa, the new greenfield Bishoftu International Airport will have an initial capacity of 60 million passengers, eventually expanding to 110 million, and transport 3.73 million tons of cargo annually.

Ghost Bites (Capitec | Grindrod | KAP | Lighthouse | Nedbank | Truworths)

Capitec just doesn’t stop growing (JSE: CPI)

The latest earnings give support to the share price performance this year

Death, taxes and an increase in the Capitec share price – these seem to be the certainties in life in South Africa. Capitec is up more than 15% year-to-date, despite the South African economy continuing to dish up tepid growth. This is because Capitec is less of a macro play and more of a market share play, with a strategy that continues to take economic value from the traditional names in the sector.

In case you needed further evidence of this, Capitec’s HEPS for the six months to August 2025 reflects growth of between 22% and 27%. They achieved this not just through growth in the loan book (something that other banks are struggling to get right in South Africa), but also through a stable credit loss ratio despite the growth in the book. This makes sense, as we’ve seen a positive story around credit quality at competing banks.

To add to the growth in net interest income, they’ve enjoyed a positive move in non-interest revenue as well. This has come from sources like Capitec Connect (which always gets the Blue Label Telecoms (JSE: BLU) enthusiasts excited), as well as overall growth in client numbers. Due to a structural change in funeral insurance policies sold since 1 November 2024, there’s also a higher contribution from that source of revenue.

Although this interim period includes a full 6 months of income from Avafin vs. just 4 months in the comparable period, I don’t think that is making much difference here. The growth is coming from maintainable sources, like ongoing market share growth across an ever-expanding range of products.


Grindrod’s HEPS has moved sharply higher (JSE: GND)

HEPS from core operations isn’t nearly as exciting though

Grindrod has released a trading statement dealing with the six months to June. As usual when a company has been going through a process of significant corporate activity as part of a turnaround strategy, Earnings Per Share (EPS) bounces around like crazy. This is why the market always focuses on Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS) instead, as it adjusts for many of the once-off items.

Speaking of HEPS, Grindrod expects growth of between 18% and 28%, which is a chunky improvement. Before you get too excited though, HEPS from core operations is expected to be flat. This includes Port and Terminals, Logistics and the various group segments that are cost centres.

The share price rallied over 3% in response to the update, so it seems like it may have been better than the market was expecting.


KAP somehow manages to disappoint even those with low expectations (JSE: KAP)

HEPS is even worse than they initially guided

KAP is one of the very few shares out there that is down over 5 years – yes, vs. a COVID base! The share price has shed almost 30% over that period. It’s lost nearly 70% of its value since the peak in early 2022. And on a year-to-date basis, KAP is down 45%.

The TL;DR is that if you like your money, it’s probably best to invest it somewhere else.

The really unfortunate thing about KAP is that nothing ever seems to improve. There’s always something in the underlying portfolio that is dragging the place down. For the year ended June 2025, KAP released a SENS announcement in early June noting an expected drop in HEPS of more than 30% for the period. It’s significantly worse than that, with an updated trading statement reflecting a decrease of between 42% and 52%.

It looks as though the fourth quarter was the worst part of the year, so that’s especially worrying in terms of momentum.

Aside from the automotive parts business that struggled with lower vehicle production by two local OEMs, the biggest issue was PG Bison’s new MDF line. They are now expensing rather than capitalising the finance costs and it’s taking them a while to really extract value from this substantial capital investment.

This would explain the vast decrease in HEPS vs. a far more modest decline in EBITDA of less than 10%. But it’s also cold comfort for investors when they see an uptick in revenue accompanied by a halving of profits – that makes it really hard to believe in a turnaround.

The bull case for KAP would make reference to the fact that the MDF project is a long-life project and that current performance isn’t an indication of its full potential. The bear case would simply point to a share price chart as an example of just how many times KAP has tried and failed to get the market to believe in a better future.


Lighthouse looks solid at the halfway mark for the year (JSE: LTE)

The interim distribution has been boosted by the Iberian deals

In 2024, Lighthouse lost its patience with Hammerson (JSE: HMN) and sold the shares it held in that fund. Although there are signs of life at Hammerson in their latest update, I think this was the right call for Lighthouse when viewed through a long-term lens. Investors are far more interested in seeing companies that have direct ownership of assets that they otherwise can’t get exposure to, rather than large stakes in other listed companies. With Lighthouse recycling the Hammerson proceeds into properties in Iberia, the overall story becomes far more interesting.

Having said that, Lighthouse’s share price is up 1.6% over the past 12 months and Hammerson is up 9.5%, so the appeal of Lighthouse’s portfolio needs to come through for that performance gap to be addressed.

This lack of growth in the Lighthouse share price is despite a 7.9% increase in the distribution per share, driven by the performance of the Iberian portfolio that was expanded over the past 18 months. They’ve made good progress in the cost ratios in the fund, which has helped them offset the impact of refinancing major borrowings in December 2024.

There were two additional acquisitions in this period, both of which are malls in Spain. The acquisition yield was 7.2% for the two properties combined. This takes the fund to a position where 58% of the directly held portfolio’s fair value is in Spain. 27.6% can be found in Portugal and the remaining 14.4% in France.

As at the end of June, Lighthouse held €14 million worth of shares in listed funds Klepierre and a far more familiar name: NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP). Lighthouse sold some shares in both those companies during this period to fund the direct portfolio expansion, so that shows you where the priorities lie.

The loan-to-value ratio has moved substantially higher from 21.1% in June 2024 to 35.0% in June 2025.

Distribution guidance for the full year of €2.70 per share has been affirmed based on the interim performance of €1.3122 per share.


Nedbank is acquiring iKhokha for R1.65 billion (JSE: NED)

Here’s an interesting growth play in South Africa

Nedbank must be pretty tired of being among the banks that is watching Capitec (JSE: CPI) eat its lunch here at home. Although the other banks are certainly also feeling the Capitec pinch, they have extensive operations in other countries to help make up for it. Nedbank is primarily exposed to South Africa and therefore needs to find a way to grow here.

Nedbank has identified SMEs as a desirable target market, with their offering set to be boosted by the acquisition of 100% in fintech iKhokha for R1.65 billion. iKhokha offers a variety of POS and ecommerce payment solutions, along with access to finance.

Nedbank has ensured that a management lock-in package has been agreed. Before you wonder about how close this lock-in comes to modern day slavery, I must point out that these packages inevitably include substantial incentives that are designed to encourage ongoing growth and innovation. It’s very important that the existing entrepreneurial culture at iKhokha will be preserved, as big corporates are famous for acquiring and then destroying startups by filling them with processes instead of ideas. Making sure that the existing management team will stick around is an important buffer against this issue.

Having said that, iKhokha isn’t exactly wet behind the ears either. Established in 2012 and having distributed over R3 billion in working capital to SMEs to date, they’ve been around for long enough to be ready for corporate ownership. Importantly, they’ve already been through a round of private equity ownership, having been part of the Adumo stable and subsequently unbundled to shareholders including Apis. Going through private equity ownership before landing up in a big corporate machine is generally a good sign.

If the Adumo name is familiar to you, that’s because it is owned by Lesaka Technologies (JSE: LSK). For clarity, Lesaka is not involved in this deal at all, as iKhokha was split out from Adumo some time ago. In fact, Lesaka is a major competitor to iKhokha in this space based on my understanding!

With a market cap of R115 billion, this iKhokha deal is 1.4% of Nedbank’s market cap. They aren’t betting the farm here, but it’s big enough to be a meaningful contributor to growth if they get it right. The announcement unfortunately doesn’t give any further details on the revenue or profitability of iKhokha.


Truworths Africa drags the group into the red (JSE: TRU)

Bucking the trend, it’s the UK business that is helping them right now

Truworths released a trading update for the 52-week period ended 29 June 2025. They did it after market close, so the market will only be able to react to it on Thursday morning. I don’t think you’ll see anyone popping champagne for these numbers.

After several paragraphs painting a terrible macro picture (always a convenient excuse for poor performance – but why then is Mr Price (JSE: MRP) doing well?), they get to the bad news: sales in Truworths Africa fell 0.4% for the full year. The second half was a gain of 0.5% vs. a decrease of 1.1% in the first half, so there’s some positive momentum at least. This shape is because of higher markdowns in the first half after a poor winter trading experience in 2024, which they attribute to the late onset of winter and stock delays at the ports. Those sound more like naturally offsetting factors to me, but anyway.

Other important stats in the SA business include 0.1% growth in account sales (which contribute 70% of sales) vs. a decline in cash sales of 1.5%. As a silver lining, the online business is growing well, up 33.7% and contributing 6.5% to total retail sales. Product inflation was 1.2% for the period, way down from 6.4% in 2024. Trading space increased by 0.5%, so they aren’t shy to keep increasing the number of stores.

Office UK is the saving grace here – well, almost. Unlike other South African-owned retailers that struggle overseas, Office UK is actually doing quite well at the moment with its niche focus on fashion footwear. Sales were up 9.7% in local currency, with 11.3% growth in the first half and 7.7% growth in the second half. Interestingly, the contribution of online sales actually dipped from 46.2% to 44.9%, with Office growing trading space by 6.4%. Given the importance to many people of trying on shoes, I can understand that there’s a saturation point for online sales in that model.

Truworths Africa is over 65% of group sales, so the UK performance isn’t enough to keep the overall story moving forwards. Group sales increased by just 2.7%, which is insufficient to deal with the combination of pressure on gross margin and inflationary increases in expenses. HEPS is therefore expected to decrease by between -7% and -11%, or by between -3% and -7% if you accept the company’s use of “pro forma” HEPS with further adjustments.

Either way, it sucks. It’s also a lovely reminder of why I’m long Mr Price, which is increasingly looking like the best of the bunch locally. The Truworths share price has lost a third of its value this year and I suspect it’s about to get worse.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • There’s a complicated legal context to this trade that included a cession and pledge agreement and then legal proceedings that seemed to reverse the pledge. But the net result of this mess is that an associate of Pieter Erasmus has acquired R1.6 billion worth of shares in Pepkor (JSE: PPH) in an off-market trade.
  • Blue Label Telecoms (JSE: BLU) renewed its cautionary announcement related to a potential restructure of the group and value unlock activity around Cell C. They are still finalising the terms of a proposed restructure and would need to get various approvals in place before announcing anything concrete.
  • If you participated in the mix and match facility in the offer for Assura (JSE: AHR) by Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP), then you’ll want to check out the announcement indicating the results of the “More Shares” and “More Cash” election – both of which do what they say on the tin in terms of the mix of how you’ll be settled for your Assura shares. The offer remains open for acceptance at the moment.
  • Eastern Platinum (JSE: EPS) has very little liquidity in its stock, so the quarterly results get only a passing mention down here. Revenue fell by a nasty 43.1% and mine operating income tanked by over 90%. This put them in an overall operating loss position for the quarter, which has also contributed to an even larger working capital deficit than before. Nonetheless, Investec has increased the credit facility to the company that is secured by the PGM production delivered from the Zandfontein underground section to Impala Platinum. In banking, it’s about making sure the security package is as tight as possible, with equity investors then left to fight over the net profits – or net losses, for that matter.
  • Due to its failure to publish financial statements for the year ended December 2024 within the stipulated time, Kibo Energy’s (JSE: KBO) listing has been suspended by the JSE. Ditto for Sable Exploration and Energy (JSE: SXM), although Sable has at least made more effort to keep the market informed about the details of its financials. Conversely, Kibo’s last SENS announcement was in May!
  • As a reminder of how complicated a business rescue process can be, the latest at Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON) is that yet another notice as been filed in court. I’m only mentioning this in case you ever make the mistake of thinking that business rescue is a guarantee of something being resolved quickly.

Ghost Bites (ADvTECH | Jubilee Metals | Merafe | Primary Health Properties – Assura | Sasol | Sirius Real Estate | Weaver)

Double-digit growth in earnings at ADvTECH (JSE: ADH)

The business model continues to work

ADvTECH is an interesting local company to follow. They have a mix of primary, secondary and tertiary education offerings in South Africa and elsewhere in Africa, generally catering to higher income families. This means they are targeting people who can afford to have more kids – the way middle-income people used to do! When it comes to filling up their schools, that’s a critical element of the story.

There’s also a resourcing business, although it remains an odd strategic fit with the rest of the group in my opinion.

Still, for the six months to June 2025, HEPS is expected to be between 13% and 18% higher. That’s a solid outcome, with detailed results due for release on 25 August.


Jubilee Metals has released the circular for the PGM and chrome disposal (JSE: JBL)

The deal would unlock substantial capital for the copper strategy

If you had tried to hunt down a PGM enthusiast a year ago, you would’ve been lucky to find one cowering in a cave somewhere, fighting off the last of the predators. The sector went through an absolutely terrible time, as evidenced by recent results from major players that reflect a sharp drop in earnings. The recent rally in the share prices has been driven by an improved outlook for PGMs, rather than historical earnings that have already been banked.

The problem for Jubilee Metals is that they have an ambitious copper strategy in Zambia that they need to deliver. Copper is in vogue at the moment and if Jubilee gets this right, they might become an attractive acquisition target. Even if a potential suitor doesn’t knock on the door, they should become a cash generative company with commodity exposure that is less erratic than PGMs. That’s the theory, at least.

But to get there, they need to be brave enough to cut their PGM and chrome businesses loose – at exactly the time when people actually want those assets again. This has raised few eyebrows, with some questioning why they don’t keep those assets instead. The point is that you always want to sell an asset when the market is strong, not weak.

I will never forget one of my early bosses in my career selling a truly magnificent home in Hout Bay. It had even been featured on Top Billing. I remember asking him why on earth he was selling, as everything was booming in Cape Town property at the time and foreigners were buying like crazy. I pointed out how idyllic and perfect it all seemed, with nobody able to understand the reason for the sale. “Exactly!” he said, teaching me a lifelong lesson about selling high and buying low, not the other way around. Had he not sold at the peak at that time, it would’ve been years until that price was available again – if ever.

So, with that anecdote out of the way, we return to Jubilee Metals and their disposal of the chrome and PGM operations for up to $90 million. This is based on an enterprise value (which isn’t the same as equity as it considers the underlying debt in the operations) of $148 million, which is a 6x EBITDA multiple based on FY24 EBITDA.

We’ve now reached the more valid criticism than the timing: the pricing of the deal. The FY24 earnings base is a highly depressed period, as evidenced by broader sector performance. A 6x forward EBITDA multiple would be a great outcome, based on expected earnings in the next financial year. A 6x trailing EBITDA multiple doesn’t seem very appealing. The timing of selling this house is probably right, but the asking price is much too low as the owner is arguably desperate to buy somewhere else – in this case, copper in Zambia.

Jubilee first announced this potential disposal on 5 June 2025, with the share price trading at R1.00. It is now trading 31% lower at 69 cents per share. That’s a pretty strong message from the market, but is there a further nuance worth consideration?

Well, maybe. You see, it would be incorrect to see Jubilee as a PGM player with a modest chrome add-on. In the first half of FY25, they generated 86% of their revenue from chrome, with earnings being far more sensitive to a change in the chrome price than the PGM basket price. Although PGM basket prices have climbed sharply recently, chrome prices have fallen.

There’s no easy answer here. EBITDA for FY24 was $24.6 million. At the halfway point in FY25, they were already on EBITDA of $16.5 million. If we just take the simplistic approach of doubling the interim number, this deal is a forward EBITDA multiple of 4.5x.

As a final comment, I must point out that Jubilee’s approach to this deal would consider not just the expected cash flow from the PGM and chrome operations, but the total potential return from reallocating the sales proceeds into the copper operations and giving themselves the real option of capital structure flexibility.

Holders of 30.42% of shares in Jubilee have given a letter of support to vote in favour of the transaction. There’s a long way to go to get the deal done.


Merafe’s earnings more than halve (JSE: MRF)

And the interim dividend has dropped by 80%

Merafe released results for the six months to June 2025 and they don’t make for pleasant reading. Revenue has fallen by 47%, driven by a 55% decrease in ferrochrome sales volumes, a 14% drop in chrome ore sales volumes and only the slight mitigating factor of a 9% uptick in PGM sales volumes.

Naturally, with revenue down to that extent, things don’t improve further down the income statement. Merafe took steps to suspend operations in response to weak market demand, so they managed to stem the bleeding at a 56% drop in EBITDA and a 55% decrease in HEPS.

Although they still have R1.14 billion in cash on the balance sheet, that number is down by 36%. Along with the overall pressure on earnings, it’s therefore no surprise that the dividend has fallen by 80% to 4 cents per share.

The outlook statement has a more bullish undertone than you might expect from numbers like these, but there are many risks here from demand factors through to energy costs.


Primary Health Properties managed to secure control of Assura (JSE: PHP | JSE: AHR)

Talk about a last-minute outcome!

Shareholders in Assura certainly took their sweet time in deciding whether or not to accept the offer from Primary Health Properties. This is because they would’ve wanted to retain maximum flexibility in case either a new competing offer arrived, or perhaps KKR and Stonepeak improved their offer. Neither thing happened in the end, so we have now reached the point where we have the final results of the Primary Health Properties offer.

Holders of 62.93% of shares in Assura accepted the offer, which means that Primary Health Properties will now have a controlling stake in Assura and the minimum acceptance condition has been met, as the offer was only going ahead if holders of more than 50% in Assura accepted it.

Shareholders who gave irrevocable undertakings to the KKR / Stonepeak special purpose entity will be pleased that those undertakings have now lapsed, as that offer is dead. As the Primary Health Properties offer is still open for acceptance, those shareholders will have the opportunity to accept the Primary Health offer if they so choose.


Some love from the market for Sasol – but you can’t just look at a chart for one day (JSE: SOL)

Everyone’s favourite pain trade closed 11% higher after a trading statement

Sasol has truly been one of the wildest stories on the local market in recent years, with many retail investors climbing in and being taken on a rollercoaster ride. Just look at this chart over 5 years:

As you can see, Tuesday’s 11% rally is literally a blip on this chart. It will nevertheless fuel a new wave of people talking about Sasol in a positive light, so brace yourself accordingly.

The reason for the rally was a trading statement reflecting growth in HEPS for the year ended June 2025 of between 85% and 100%. Yes, that means that HEPS almost doubled!

As always, there are a lot of messy factors at play here. For example, the Transnet settlement of R4.3 billion pre-tax has been recognised in these numbers. In fact, among the positive factors in these numbers, the only one that gives an indication of maintainable earnings is a comment that average chemicals basket prices moved higher and that there was strict cost control. As Sasol explained to the market earlier this year, their medium-term plans depend on getting earnings much higher in the chemicals business, so that’s good to see.

Unfortunately, that story is blunted by a 15% drop in the average rand price per barrel of Brent Crude, along with a 3% decrease in sales volumes as Sasol disclosed in their recent production and sales update.

There are also huge movements in impairments, but this doesn’t impact HEPS.

I have no position here, as the Sasol turnaround still feels too hard for me. Good luck to those who do! If you are interested in why I feel that way, you can refer to this Supernatural Stocks podcast that I did for Moneyweb back in May, based on Sasol’s Capital Markets Day.


With a substantial deal in the UK, Sirius Real Estate has now fully allocated the recently raise capital (JSE: SRE)

The latest transaction grows the UK gross asset value by 20%!

Sirius Real Estate raised equity capital at the end of 2023 and in mid-2024. They also raised further debt capital on the bond market in May 2024 and January 2025. It takes time to deploy this level of capital into acquisitions, with a balance needing to be struck between going too slowly (cash drag for investors) and going too quickly (potentially into poor quality deals with long-term negative impacts).

If there’s one property fund out there that knows how to do deals, it’s Sirius. Their track record in the UK and Germany is impressive. To add to the flurry of deals needed to deploy capital, they’ve now added a particularly large transaction in the form of the acquisition of the Hartlebury Trading Estate in Worcestershire for £101.1 million.

That’s a big number – and big enough to grow Sirius’ BizSpace portfolio in the UK by 20% in terms of gross asset value and 18% in terms of floor size – but only by 10% in terms of revenue. Sirius will obviously aim to improve the property over time from its current occupancy rate of 84%.

The net initial yield is 6.45%, so they’ve paid quite a lofty price for this property vs. some of the other deals we’ve seen. This is because of the future potential of this property rather than what it currently generates. There’s obviously room for improvement in the occupancy rate, as well as opportunities to increase rental revenue through positive reversions when leases are due for renewal, along with other strategies to actively manage the asset. This could include further development on the property, as building coverage is very light at the moment.

Interestingly, as the business park was originally built as an RAF maintenance base, Sirius reckons that it could be appealing to tenants in the defence sector. From an investment perspective, that’s probably the single most appealing sector in Europe at the moment.

Sirius will now need to focus on extracting the best it can from the newly acquired assets, as doing so will then give support to the next round of capital raising activities when they eventually come.


Weaver is doing lovely things for my portfolio (JSE: WVR)

I firmly believe in the BNPL growth story

As I’ve mentioned before, attending an Unlock the Stock event is a great opportunity for you to do your company research alongside not just me, but also my co-host Mark Tobin and everyone else who is on the call with great questions. I use the platform to make decisions with my own money, like my investment in Weaver Fintech (when it was still called HomeChoice) shortly after they presented on Unlock the Stock.

This has proven to be the right decision, with my position now up by a rather delightful 40%. An 11.3% increase in the share price after the release of results certainly helped with that.

Weaver is a growth stock, which is rare in South Africa. In the results for the six months to June 2025, revenue grew by 29% and the Fintech segment saw its profit before tax climb by 46.2%, now contributing 98% of Weaver’s profits.

This doesn’t mean that the retail business is a waste of time – it’s an important distribution channel for the fintech products, plus I think the HomeChoice brand has a clear understanding of their target market and what they do, something that is rare in retail in South Africa.

Importantly, with HEPS up by 45%, the interim dividend has also increased by 47%. This points to the cash quality of earnings.

Although the slight uptick in capex is one way to see the expansion in the group with 10 new retail showrooms, the better measure is net interest expense. In order to grow the fintech business, they need access to capital. Capital comes at a cost, which is why the net interest expense increased by 40.6%. You can expect more of this to come, with a new R1.25 billion bullet loan concluded in August 2025.

With growth like this in the underlying business, the next obvious thing to solve would be liquidity in the shares. Weaver is far too tightly held for institutional investors to get involved. Also, my 40% gain on paper would be very hard to realise due to the wide bid-offer spread. Luckily, I have no plans of selling anytime soon. This is a long-term thematic play for me.


Nibbles:

  • TeleMasters (JSE: TLM) announced an extension to a related party consulting arrangement that carries a cost of R155k per month. The counterparty is an entity owned by a related party to the CEO of the company. It relates to two subsidiaries of TeleMasters and the arrangement was already in place when those companies were acquired. The correct governance procedures seem to have been followed, with “disinterested” directors considering the contract and the CEO reclusing himself from the discussion. To give further comfort to shareholders, the extension of the arrangement is for two years with no increase to the amount.

Ghost Bites (Gemfields | Impala Platinum | Italtile | MTN Uganda | Powerfleet | Rainbow Chicken)

Gemfields has found a buyer for Fabergé (JSE: GML)

Given how challenging the core mining operations are, this is the right move

I often write about the importance of focus for corporates. Investors hate seeing a tough core story, but they especially hate seeing such a story accompanied by non-core distractions that are sucking up management’s time – and the company’s capital.

Gemfields has taken an important step towards rectifying this situation, with an agreement to sell Fabergé for $50 million to SMG Capital LLC. $45 million is payable on completion of the sale and $5 million is payable in the form of quarterly royalty payments at a rate of 8% of Fabergé’s revenue. Deferred payment structures are not uncommon. In fact, with 90% of the price payable upfront, Gemfields is in a decent position here. It also helps that there are no regulatory approvals required, so they should be able to get this done quickly.

The proceeds from sale will give the group additional working capital, something that is sorely needed in the group as it deals with a difficult global market for its gemstones, not to mention the ongoing risks of operating in countries like Zambia and Mozambique.

Fabergé’s net assets as at 31 December 2024 were valued at $50.3 million. The operating loss was $5.7 million and the loss after tax was $11.3 million. In other words, Gemfields shareholders will be happy to see the back of those fancy eggs that Fabergé is famous for.


Impala Platinum is another example of how commodity rallies are forward-looking (JSE: IMP)

HEPS has fallen sharply, yet the share price has had a great year

If you looked at the share price of the various platinum miners and compared them to recent HEPS guidance in the sector, you would be forgiven for feeling incredibly confused. Share prices have rallied sharply, yet HEPS has headed firmly in the other direction.

The reason is that the share prices move in anticipation of the next period’s earnings, not the period that already happened. Whilst this is technically true for all companies, not just the mines, the difference is that the market can forecast earnings more accurately in this sector based on observable commodity prices.

As a sign of how bad things have been, Impala Platinum’s trading statement notes that HEPS for the year ended June 2025 will be down by between 63% and 79%. This has been driven by lower sales volumes and flat revenue per 6E ounce at a time when mining costs are facing inflationary pressures.

The share price is up 80% year-to-date after falling 3% on the date of release of these earnings.


Italtile’s earnings move slightly higher (JSE: ITE)

This sector is a tough way to make money in South Africa

Italtile has released a voluntary trading statement for the year ended June 2025. The word “voluntary” immediately tells you that the move is less than 20%, as a move in excess of 20% would trigger a mandatory trading statement.

Italtile has been telling us for a while now that things are particularly difficult for its manufacturing division, as there is excess manufacturing capacity in the South African market. Demand just hasn’t come through the way that many hoped in this country, as interest rates have taken their sweet time to come down. This has a significant negative impact on the building and construction sector, where the cost of debt is a key driver of the level of activity.

Italtile’s first half was better than the second half, with the company attributing this performance to the liquidity in the market from the two-pot pension fund withdrawals at the end of calendar year 2024. Turnover in the second half fell as underlying demand in the market faltered.

For the full year, the retail division’s results were up 2% and market share was maintained. Like-for-like sales increased 1% and average selling price inflation was just 0.2%, so it’s concerning that volumes were so light despite almost no inflation.

In the manufacturing division, sales fell 5% and price inflation was -1.6% i.e. they found themselves in a deflationary environment thanks to the excess capacity. And in the import businesses, sales value fell 3% and inflation was -0.9%, so that’s another set of deflationary pressures.

Gross margin was flat, as the company couldn’t put meaningful price increases through to consumers in such a weak demand environment. It’s actually pretty impressive that they came in flat when you consider the overall pressures!

For the year, HEPS will be between 0.1% and 5.2% higher. Under the circumstances, it’s a resilient result.

Italtile is down 32% year-to-date and Cashbuild has dropped 35.8%. Looking over 12 months is more interesting, with Italtile down 15.5% and Cashbuild down 4%. In other words, they’ve both given up all their gains in late 2024 – and then some.


MTN Uganda’s growth remains well ahead of inflation (JSE: MTN)

When you see growth rates in frontier markets, it’s important to compare them to inflation

If a company grows revenue by 20% in a market that has a 20% inflation rate, then real growth is zero. In all likelihood, that country’s currency would’ve declined in value over the period under review, which means that growth expressed in “hard currency” terms would probably also be minimal. This is why when you look at businesses in frontier markets (like most of Africa), you have to compare the growth rate to the inflation rate.

MTN Uganda is a standout in this regard, as Uganda’s inflation rate is remarkably low by frontier market standards. Headline inflation was just 3.6% in the six months to June 2025, so revenue growth of 13.1% at MTN Uganda is incredibly impressive. EBITDA is even better, with a 220 basis points increase in EBITDA margin, driving growth of 17.8%.

Net finance costs were stable, so profit before tax jumped by 28.1% as the benefits of both operating leverage and financial leverage filtered through the income statement.

Unfortunately, due to a once-off tax settlement, the tax expense more than doubled and thus profit after tax fell by 9.7%. As this is a highly unusual situation, it’s clear that adjusted profit after tax growth of 27.8% is a much better measure of the true performance.


Powerfleet’s numbers need a careful read because of the timing of the Fleet Complete deal (JSE: PWR)

Large acquisitions can skew growth rates

Whenever you are looking at company results, you need to be alert to whether there were any major transactions that might skew the numbers. For example, if there was a significant acquisition that is in this period’s numbers and not in the comparable period, that will naturally make the current numbers look better than they really are.

At Powerfleet, revenue for the three months to June increased by $29.8 million year-on-year, a 52.5% increase. But the acquisition of Fleet Complete contributed $26.2 million, which is most of that increase. Although there was some underlying growth in the rest of the business, there are also steps underway to reduce non-core businesses, which is impacting the overall numbers.

Here’s some good news: cost of sales increased $11.9 million, with Fleet Complete contributing $12.1 million. This means that cost of sales actually fell in the rest of the business, which helps greatly when the revenue increase was modest.

The net loss attributable to shareholders in this quarter was $10.2 million, with notable expenses being $5.8 million in the amortisation of intangibles related to the MiX Telematics and Fleet Complete acquisitions, as well as $4.2 million in acquisition and restructuring expenses.

The Powerfleet numbers therefore remain very messy due to all the corporate activity. The share price is down 43% year-to-date, a situation that isn’t helped by the complicated financials.


A pot of gold at the end of Rainbow Chicken (JSE: RBO)

The volatility in poultry sector earnings is truly breathtaking

Rainbow Chicken has released a trading statement for the year ended 29 June 2025. The percentage moves are a little crazy, with HEPS expected to increase by between 214% and 234%. This means a range for HEPS of 63.55 cents to 67.60 cents. For context, the share price is currently R4.37, so the company is trading on a Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple of almost 7x.

It feels like a lot of things went right for them this period, with higher sales volumes, lower input costs and an overall improvement in operational efficiencies. They also had lower expenses from Avian Influenza. The magical improvement in Eskom also made a huge difference here. Even finance costs were lower!

Due to the incredibly thin margins in poultry, even a modest improvement in operations can lead to higher earnings. When several things go the right way at the same time, you see outcomes like these.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The chairman and founder of Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) bought shares worth around R640k.
    • The spouse of a director of Afine Investments (JSE: ANI) bought shares in the company worth R31k.
    • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) bought shares in the company worth R14k.
  • Prime Kapital announced that its offer for MAS (JSE: MSP) is now unconditional, as Prime Kapital has decided to waive the condition related minimum cash acceptances. They say that this is based on positive feedback from the market around the level of acceptances.
  • Prosus (JSE: PRX) / Naspers (JSE: NPN) announced that Prosus has received clearance from the European Commission (the competition regulator) for the Just Eat Takeaway.com offer. This means that the deal is now unconditional, with the acceptance period open until 1 October. Interestingly, to get the deal across the line, Prosus offered to reduce its stake in Delivery Hero over a 12-month period, such that it will no longer be the largest shareholder.
  • Cilo Cybin (JSE: CCC) has released the circular for the acquisition of Cilo Cybin as its viable asset. This was set up as a special purpose acquisition company, hence why it sounds like it is acquiring itself. To my great surprise, BDO Corporate Finance as independent expert reckons that sustainable gross margin and EBITDA are 75% and 55% respectively, which means that this business is right up there with Apple Services. You’ll have to forgive me for my immense skepticism. The company made a profit after tax of R20 million in 2025 and the purchase price for the deal is R845 million, a price that BDO believes is fair. Good luck.
  • Frustratingly for Deneb (JSE: DNB) shareholders who may have been pleased to see the company disposing of property, the planned sale of 195 Leicester Road in Durban for R48.5 million has fallen through. The purchaser failed to pay the required deposit within the time stipulated in the agreement.
  • The acceptance level in the Assura (JSE: AHR) – Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) is finally starting to tick higher. They are now at 8.8%, although it obviously needs to get a whole lot higher – especially as the offer closes this Tuesday (12th August)!
  • Shareholders in AH-Vest (JSE: AHL) have given a resounding approval to the scheme of arrangement that will lead to the delisting of the company. The listing will be terminated on 26th August after the scheme consideration is paid on 25th August.
  • Sable Exploration and Mining (JSE: SXM) has noted that the expected date of release for the financials for the period ended February 2025 is 31 August 2025. The announcement also noted that the company’s Lapon Plant is currently operating at 10% of production capacity, but they expect this to ramp up over the next two months.
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