In this edition of Ghost Bites:

• Aspen gets ready for thinner clients and fatter profits in Canada – but can they get the active pharmaceutical ingredient they need for their GLP-1 generic?
• South32 signs off on a strong FY26 during a key transition period

Aspen gets ready for thinner clients and fatter profits in Canada (JSE: APN)

Regulatory approval has been received for Aspen-Semaglutide

The Aspen share price chart has been on quite the adventure in recent times, although zooming out on the chart reveals a disappointing performance:

It’s been a tough road for Aspen, as the contract manufacturing space in pharmaceuticals comes with a unique set of risks. You can see the substantial drop in value in late 2025 due to a major dispute and loss of volumes. This was followed by a strong rally and partial recovery in 2026.

Aspen was a top pick for many punters coming into this year, and they weren’t wrong! But is the best of this rally behind them?

With the disposal of Aspen Asia Pacific (APAC) behind them, further momentum in the share price will need to come from good old fashioned earnings growth. This is going to require an increase in volumes, as Aspen has considerable capacity in its manufacturing operations. This means that the market smiles every time an announcement comes out that implies potential growth in volumes.

The latest announcement from Aspen is positive, as Health Canada has given regulatory approval to Aspen-Semaglutide, a generic semaglutide injectable. And yes, in case you’re wondering – this is a generic version of the blockbuster GLP-1 drug that has made Novo Nordisk a fortune.

The challenge is that Aspen’s ability to supply the drug depends on the availability of the active pharmaceutical ingredient from Dr Reddy’s Laboratories in India. There’s currently a supply issue that is expected to last until at least late October (based on Bloomberg reports).

Therein lies the challenge for Aspen: their position in the value chain means that they are always reliant on regulators at one end, and other pharma players at the other. This is a major contributor to that sideways share price chart.

Ghost Bite: The share price gained over 3% on this news and is currently trading at R155, close to the 52-week high of R160.79.

South32 signs off on a strong FY26 (JSE: S32)

The group is in an important transition phase

South32 has delivered its final quarterly report for the financial year ended June 2026. They exceeded production guidance for the year and enjoyed a strong Q4 that saw sales volumes jump by 15%.

The group is going through an important transition. They recently announced the disposal of the aluminium value chain business to Alcoa. They are also investing heavily in Sierra Gorda, a key copper asset. The contraction of the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project has been going on for quite some time as well.

The overall strategy is to generate 85% of earnings from base and precious metals. They expect current projects to increase production by 55%. These are exciting times for the company, with CEO Matt Daley having taken the reins from Graham Kerr on 1 July 2026.

It helps when the underlying numbers look good, particularly with Sierra Gorda exceeding FY26 production guidance by 2%. There were various other good news stories as well, but copper is where the market will pay most of its attention. The copper price came in 42% higher for FY26.

In terms of cash returns to shareholders, FY26 saw a split of $292 million in dividends vs. just $35 million in share buybacks. To give you an idea of how enormous the capital expenditure budgets can be at these mining houses, the Taylor project soaked up $710 million in growth capex in FY26. Remember, that’s just one project!

Ghost Bite: The share price is up 35% in the past year. To remind you how cyclical mining can be, the increase over three years is just 1%. Dividends didn’t save the 3-year picture, as the total return over that period is only 9% – significantly less than a money market account at a bank would’ve returned over 3 years.

Results of previous poll:

Nibbles

• Saul Saltzman, one of the sons of the founders of Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP), will be retiring from that board with effect from 17 July. This announcement comes just a few months after he transitioned to a non-executive role.

• Datatec (JSE: DTC) announced the results of the scrip distribution alternative. Based on shareholder elections, the total cash dividend was only R146 million vs. an issuance of capitalisation shares worth R390 million. In other words, by offering the alternative, the company managed to retain R390 million in capital that would otherwise have been paid out as a dividend!

• Harmony Gold (JSE: HAR) has reminded us of the dangers of the mining sector, with a tragic loss of life at the TauTona shaft in Carletonville. No further details are given on the accident at the shaft.

• Numeral (JSE: XII) announced that results for the quarter ended May 2026 have been delayed due to the company’s focus on completed the restated 2025 numbers. The Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM) has given them an extension until 5 August.