The blandest of bland cautionaries at Adcock Ingram (JSE: AIP)

But that didn’t stop the share price from rallying

A “bland cautionary” does what it says on the tin: in other words, not much. There are no details. All we know is that something is happening and shareholders should therefore act with caution.

Naturally, caution is then the very last thing that happens in the market, with the share price usually rallying in anticipation. Sure enough, Adcock Ingram closed 9.8% higher on the day!

All we know is that they are in discussions regarding a potential transaction, with no details on whether this is an acquisition or disposal, or at group level vs. business unit level.

I fact, we know nothing. But if a deal is indeed going to happen, then at some point they will release more details.

Here’s the chart:

MAS gives notice of the next Extraordinary General Meeting (JSE: MSP)

This one relates to the demand by institutional shareholders for a meeting

You may recall that a group of local institutional shareholders came together to ask some very pointed questions to the board of MAS regarding historical disclosure around the relationship with Prime Kapital and their joint venture. Added to this, those shareholders demanded a general meeting to consider changes to the board of MAS, including the removal of directors with “actual and perceived” conflicts of interest, as well as the appointment of new independent directors (including heavy-hitter Des de Beer).

Notice for the meeting has been released. It will be held on 27 August. This comes hot on the heels of the last Extraordinary General Meeting in July, which was held based on demands by Prime Kapital for a shareholder vote on a value unlock strategy.

In other related news, Hyprop (JSE: HYP) held a webcast on Tuesday at 5pm to deal with questions around their voluntary bid for MAS. I was unable to join it live and they haven’t yet put the recording on their website (at least not anywhere sensible that I could find). I’ll keep an eye out for it and report back to you on the session once I have had the opportunity to watch it.

The MAS share price slipped 4% yesterday to R22.54, moving down towards the blended offer price on the table from Hyprop.

Reinet’s NAV did indeed drop this quarter (JSE: RNI)

The release of the NAV move in the underlying fund is always a strong indication of where the group will end up

As mentioned the other day, Reinet released the net asset value (NAV) update for the underlying Reinet Fund, which includes most (but not all) of the assets and liabilities of the fund. The direction of travel was down, which makes sense based on the recent decision to sell Pension Insurance Corporation at a price below the previous directors’ valuation.

We now have confirmation that the group NAV dropped by 4.6% between March 2025 and June 2025, coming in at €36.30 per share as at June. That’s roughly R750 per share at current exchange rates, well above the current share price of R516.

For that gap in NAV to be closed, Reinet would have to be willing to return capital to shareholders. Given the recent disposal of British American Tobacco and now the plan to get out of Pension Insurance Corporation by early 2016, there’s going to be plenty of pressure from shareholders to do exactly that.

But at the end of the day, what Johann Rupert wants to do is what will happen. If he wants Reinet to continue spreading its assets around a variety of fund managers and investment funds, then that’s what will happen. Considering that they made commitments of €293 million for new and existing investments during the quarter (of which only €21 million actually closed), it doesn’t seem as though they are shutting up shop.

It’s all about “self-help” plans at Sasol (JSE: SOL)

At least they are using original language vs. the usual story in cyclicals of “controlling the controllables”

I can’t think of another local company that divides opinion quite like Sasol. Bulls and bears slug it out not just on the market, but also on social media platforms and probably in some bars around the country as well. It’s a stock that can make or lose you a lot of money, as there’s plenty of volatility.

Back in May, I covered Sasol’s medium-term outlook in my weekly podcast that I do for Moneyweb, called Supernatural Stocks. If you feel like a deeper look at Sasol, check it out here. The TL;DR is that they are highly reliant on the chemicals business for any kind of earnings growth, with the hope being that oil prices stay steady.

The latest update from Sasol was a production and sales update, along with a trading statement for the year ended June. The share price closed 6% lower after this announcement, so brace yourself.

Or perhaps… don’t? Earnings Per Share (EPS) will improve by more than 20% for the year ended June 2025, which sounds really good, doesn’t it? The nuance here is that this includes the impact of vast impairments in the comparable period, so there was little chance of this improvement not happening. It says a lot that there’s no guidance for Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS) at this stage, which ignores the effect of any of these impairments and focuses on the core business. HEPS is the one to pay attention to.

So, was the problem to be found in the outlook statement? That statement doesn’t say much really, simply highlighting that US tariffs are a risk and that they are “engaging with relevant stakeholders” around the matter, whatever that may mean. They are only planning to give an updated outlook when results are released in August.

With no easy answers to explain the share price move, we have to look deeper. Let’s start with Southern Africa Energy and Chemicals.

In the Mining business, actions taken around coal quality and the destoning plant impacted production, with saleable production down 14% for the fourth quarter and 7% for the year, although it was within market guidance. Ditto for cost per ton, which was negatively impacted, but within guidance. The good news is that better Transnet performance led to a 10% improvement in sales volumes. External sales are on the way out though, supporting the destoning plant commissioning activities.

Next up we have Gas, where production in Mozambique was 1% higher (and in line with the lower end of guidance) for the year despite civil unrest. Sales for the full year dipped by 3% in South Africa due to planned maintenance.

We then have Fuels, where volumes at Secunda Operations fell 4% and they came in below guidance, with coal quality to blame. The other major facility is Natref, where production was 17% lower than the prior year. ORYX GTL is smaller, but at least came in ahead of guidance. Liquid fuel sales volumes were 2% lower than the prior year and in line with guidance – and this is despite a 20% improvement in Q4 vs. Q3!

The last of the local businesses is Chemicals Africa, where revenue was 2% lower for the year and volumes were 4% lower. This was in line with market guidance.

So, in case you haven’t noticed, Sasol isn’t exactly in growth mode. There were some positive signs in Q4 vs. Q3 at least, with the overall picture for the year being one of either meeting or slightly missing guidance across most of the operations.

In International Chemicals, sales revenue in Chemicals America fell by 5% for the year despite a quarter-on-quarter jump of 17% in Q4. The average sales basket price fell 12% quarter-on-quarter though, so it feels like they can just never win. Overall prices were up 5% for the year at least, thanks to ethylene. Margins remain under pressure in that business, but they have at least improved. And in Chemicals Eurasia, sales revenue for the year came in 5% higher, boosted by better prices as there was a 4% drop in volumes.

Outside of operational matters, it’s worth noting that Sasol received a net payment of R4.3 billion in full and final settlement of legal disputes with Transnet. For context, Sasol’s market cap is just below R60 billion.

I’m going to end off with a long-term chart of Sasol, showing you exactly why this stock continues to capture the imagination of punters:

Nibbles:

• Director dealings:
  • A director of a major subsidiary of Southern Sun (JSE: SSU) sold shares worth around R3.3 million.
  • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) bought shares worth R100k.

• enX (JSE: ENX) achieved approval from the SARB for the special distribution of R1.30. The last day to trade is 5 August.

• You probably aren’t a shareholder in the mess that is Deutsche Konsum (JSE: DKR), as there’s literally zero liquidity in that thing on the local market. But it’s still interesting to see that their property portfolio has suffered a 4.9% decrease in value since September 2024, which means they probably won’t meet the equity ratio requirements under the German REIT laws. This has happened twice before, so their REIT status was already on its last legs. They are busy with a restructuring plan in negotiation with creditors and this includes planned property disposals of €300 to €350 million.