Assura shareholders aren’t exactly rushing to accept the Primary Health Properties offer (JSE: AHR | JSE: PHP)

Perhaps I was right about the cash offer being far more attractive?

The Assura – Primary Health Properties deal is far from done. I wasn’t surprised at all to see strong support from the Primary Health shareholders, as it’s a good deal for them. As for Assura shareholders, they seem to be a lot more cautious in signing up for a merger. Again, I don’t blame them. I genuinely think that the Assura board backed the wrong deal here, as cash alternatives are just so much cleaner – even if the price is slightly lower.

There’s a long way to go still, with the offer open until 12 August. As things stand, valid acceptances for just 1.14% of Assura shares have been received by Primary Health. Perhaps there will be a surge in acceptances. And perhaps there won’t…

To help with trying to convince Assura shareholders to say yes, Primary Health released a trading and financial update for the six months to June 2025. The update takes the opportunity to remind Assura shareholders that the deal would create a UK REIT with a combined portfolio of roughly £6 billion of assets, with the tenants generally being in the public sector in the UK. The public sector vs. private sector debate has been a feature of this deal, with the plan being for the merged entity to have 80% to 90% government-backed income, while the private sector assets are sold off into a joint venture.

As for the numbers, the six months to June 2025 saw a 3.1% increase in net rental income and a 2.9% increase in the dividend per share. When you’re dealing with a risk profile like government tenants in the UK, you’re looking for dependability of income rather than growth. This also allows them to run at quite a spicy loan-to-value ratio, currently at 48.6%.

I’m really looking forward to seeing how the latter stages of the offer period play out. It’s been a fascinating deal to follow.

South32 offloads their nickel asset in Colombia (JSE: S32)

And they are happy to just get paid something in the future

The nickel market hasn’t been a happy place. This is a classic situation of oversupply, with too much investment in this metal in anticipation of electric vehicle demand that hasn’t materialised. This results in depressed nickel prices and a reduction in supply until equilibrium is reached.

South32 isn’t hanging around for that, with a decision to sell Cerro Matoso in Colombia to CoreX Holding. The upfront price is nominal, with South32 just happy to be rid of the current and future liabilities. There is an “agterskot” though (as we like to call it in South Africa), in the form of potential future payments of up to $100 million.

Up to $80 million relates to price-linked consideration based on future production and nickel prices, while up to $20 million is based on permitting milestones within the next five years for the Queresas & Porvenir North project.

Sometimes, you just need to walk away and cut your losses. South32 will have to recognise an impairment expense of $130 million as this asset is shifted off the balance sheet.

Nibbles:

• Director dealings:
  • Sean Riskowitz has bought shares in Finbond (JSE: FGL) worth R433k.

• MTN Zakhele Futhi (JSE: MTNZF) is in the process of being wound up and returning value to shareholders, all thanks to the recent strength in the MTN share price that gave them this opportunity. The latest step is the declaration of a special distribution by way of return of contributed tax capital of R20.00 per share.

• Glencore (JSE: GLN) is commencing a share buyback programme of up to $1 billion, with a plan to complete this programme by February 2026. UBS in London has been appointed to manage the process. For context, much as that sounds very large and impressive, Glencore’s market cap is R955 billion. This programme is therefore roughly 2% of issued share capital.

• Old Mutual (JSE: OMU) announced the appointment of Prabashni Moodley as the CEO of the new Life and Savings segment. Under this segment, you’ll find Personal Finance, Old Mutual Wealth Management, Old Mutual Corporate and the Mass and Foundation Cluster. Moodley has been with Old Mutual since 2002 and is currently the Management Director of Old Mutual Corporate. Will this new structure help Old Mutual close the gap to a peer like Sanlam? Over five years, Old Mutual is down 4% and Sanlam is up 43%!

• Accelerate Property Fund (JSE: APF) has been granted an extension by the JSE for the issuing of the circular for the sale of Portside. The extension gives them until 31 July.

• Trustco (JSE: TTO) still hasn’t released financials for the year ended August 2024. They are currently waiting for a ruling from the JSE, so there’s no indication of when they will finally be released.