The increased momentum witnessed in the second half of 2025 was stalled in February 2026, with the outbreak of the latest Middle East conflict. Despite repeated efforts to broker a ceasefire, the conflict continues, adding further uncertainty to an already complex global environment. Against this backdrop, South Africa’s economic growth remains stubbornly low, with growth forecast by the IMF at just 1.1% for 2026. Unsurprisingly, corporates and investors, faced with a challenging geopolitical landscape and a difficult domestic operating environment, have adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Deal activity in H1 2026 reflects this caution, with deal flow down 10% year-on-year to 155 deals valued at R311bn. Stripping out transactions involving foreign companies with secondary listings on one of the local exchanges and failed deals, the picture remains subdued, with only 142 deals recorded, against 160 in H1 2025. The decline is evident across the various deal categories. DealMakers recorded just three BEE transactions involving exchange-listed and unlisted companies in the six months to the end of June, compared with 12 in the corresponding period in 2025. Private equity activity has proved somewhat more resilient, with 39 deals recorded, compared with 43 in H1 2025.

Interestingly, the majority of the top 15 deals by value in H1 2026 were announced in Q1, with the three largest transactions involving companies with secondary listings in South Africa. Of the aggregate R271,9bn value represented by the top 10 deals, these three transactions accounted for 66% of the total – highlighting once again the extent to which a handful of large transactions can influence the headline numbers.

South Africa’s capital markets, however, have remained resilient. Accelerated bookbuilds by JSE-listed property companies increased in H1 2026, driven by strong institutional demand. Significant capital raises were undertaken by Spear REIT, Fairvest, Vukile Property Fund and Fortress Real Estate, which together raised R6,05bn over the period. Corporates also continued to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases, with a total value of R122,9bn recorded.

So, what can we expect in H2 2026? While advisory firms remain busy and the pipeline appears active, getting transactions across the line will remain challenging. The consequences of the Middle East conflict continue to reverberate across global markets, weighing on growth, disrupting supply chains, putting pressure on energy prices, and fuelling inflation.

Unless there is a meaningful resolution to the conflict and a corresponding improvement in global economic sentiment, it is unlikely that the momentum in deal activity seen in the second half of 2025 will be replicated in 2026. For now, caution remains the prevailing sentiment – and patience may well prove to be the defining characteristic of the M&A market in the months ahead.

DealMakers H1 2026 League Table – M&A activity by the top South African advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies).

DealMakers H1 2026 League Table – General Corporate Finance activity by the top South African advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies).

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
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