Ghost Bites Vol 15 (22)
Press Enter
Recent Posts
Unlock the Stock: Afrimat and Spear REIT
Afrimat’s track record is spectacular. Spear REIT is a highly respected property fund. On Unlock the Stock, you can learn about both companies.
RCL is far more than just a chicken business
RCL is far more than just a chicken business these days, which isn’t a bad thing.
Bidvest: strong trading profit growth in every division
Bidvest closed 3.8% higher after releasing results for the six months to December 2021.
Liberty Two Degrees: reversions continue to bite
Liberty Two Degrees holds stakes in some of the most iconic properties in the country
Alviva: 20% revenue growth excl. Tarsus
After teasing the market with a trading statement, Alviva has now released all the details of the interim results for the six months ended December 2021.
PSG Group and the Great Value Unlock
This is one of the biggest news stories on the JSE that we’ve seen in a while
JSE Limited: a cash cow in a shrinking field
You may not be aware of this, but the JSE Limited is listed on the JSE. You’re right in thinking that this sounds like the financial version of the movie Inception
Capital Appreciation on the deal train
The company has announced the acquisitions of three technology companies in South Africa and a 20% stake in a company in the Netherlands.
Woolworths won’t miss 2021
as released results for the 26 weeks to 26 December 2021. The share price rallied 6% despite a fair share of negative commentary on Twitter.
Cashbuild’s negative sales momentum continues
Cashbuild released its interim results for the six months ended 26 December 2021
- Lewis Group released results for the year ended March 2022. This business has been so disciplined in recent years, focusing on its core business and using share buybacks to take advantage of stubbornly low valuation multiples. Since 2017, Lewis has bought back 26 million shares at an average price of R31.82 per share, far below the current share price of around R51. This has the impact of supercharging HEPS growth, as the denominator shrinks over time (provided the share buybacks were done when the shares were cheap). Revenue in this period increased by 7.9% and HEPS grew by 37.7%. The cash flows look strong (with metrics in the debtors book going the right way), allowing the dividend to be increased by 25.9% to 413 cents per share (so Lewis offers the kind of yield usually reserved for REITs). A point worth noting is that credit sales grew by 16.7% and cash sales only increased by 6.4%. The gross margin performance was impressive at 40.5% vs. 41.8% the prior year, a low decrease considering the supply chain and inflationary pressures.
- Nampak has released results for the six months ended March 2022. Revenue is up 24%, operating profit is 26% higher and HEPS has approximately doubled to 35.6 cents per share. As I keep pointing out in many company results, balance sheets are growing because of inflation, with Nampak investing R653 million in working capital. Covenants have been complied with.
- Spear REIT has released results for the year ended February 2022. This is a solid little REIT with a portfolio focused on the Western Cape, which helps it trade at a yield that would normally be seen at bigger funds. The distribution per share has increased by 16.26% this year, with an average pay-out ratio of 88% vs. 80% in the prior year. This is a sign of increased confidence in the overall environment. There are still negative reversions at play (average of 5.57% excluding hospitality which had a positive reversion) but Spear looks to be in good shape. The loan-to-value at 39.05% (down sharply from 45.81% in February 2021) is still a bit high for my liking but has moved in the right direction. The net asset value (NAV) per share is R11.30 (down 2% this year) and the share price is trading at around R7.95. This is a discount to NAV of around 30% and a trailing dividend yield of 8.6%.
- Although Barloworld is facing great uncertainty in its Russian business, the group’s balance sheet is strong and they want to take advantage of the depressed share price. Barloworld will buy back up to 10% of its issued shares, which will give huge support to the share price. In addition, the CEO has bought R2.3 million worth of shares through his trust. As they say – there are many reasons why directors sell shares, but only one reason why they buy.
- Grindrod’s share price closed 9.8% higher after an announcement that Grindrod Bank will be sold to African Bank. The African Bank curatorship story has been a success, as the bank is now on a stable footing. Its shareholders are the South African Reserve Bank (50%), the Government Employees Pension Fund (25%) and a consortium of local banks (25%). This deal will allow Grindrod to focus on its freight businesses and will give African Bank an entry into the business banking market. This is a R1.5 billion deal that will give a solid boost to Grindod’s balance sheet and investment war chest. The net asset value for the bank as at 31 December 2021 was R1.67 billion and profit after tax was R109.4 million. The transaction will take a while to close, as this is a Category 1 deal for Grindrod (requires >50% shareholder approval) and a number of regulators will need to approve the deal.
- Mr Price has released a trading statement for the year ended 2nd April 2022. Retailers often have reporting periods that end on strange dates, as they report based on weeks rather than calendar months. Every few years we see a 53-week reporting period instead of the usual 52-week period. FY21 was one such period, so comparisons need to be made on a 52-week basis or the numbers are skewed by an extra week of trading in the base. On that basis, diluted HEPS is up between 22% and 27%. This period included the acquisitions of Power Fashion (1 April 2021) and Yuppiechef (1 August 2021) which were bought for cash. This has a positive impact on HEPS as the earnings are added to the group but no new shares are issued.
- Net 1 UEPS Technologies has changed its name to Lesaka Technologies, which is far less of a mouthful and reflects the African strategy going forward. The ticker has changed to JSE: LSK. The share price rallied 9%, so perhaps the best strategy is to just keep changing the name. If the company updated its website from a design that looks like it came from the 90s, it might rally another 9%.
- Life Healthcare has released interim results for the six months ended March 2022. Revenue from continuing operations increased by 4.2% but normalised EBITDA fell by 1.9%. This is unusual in the sector, as the likes of Mediclinic are seeing an increase in margins. The negative impact on Life’s margins was from the ending of Covid-related support services in the international operations. In South Africa, normalised EBITDA increased by 7.5%. HEPS has decreased by 12.7%. Net debt to EBITDA has improved to 2.03x from 2.78x a year ago. The good news for investors is that the interim dividend per share is back, with a 15 cents per share dividend declared. The share price was trading nearly 2% higher in afternoon trade at around R18.70.
- Stefanutti Stocks released results for the year to February 2022. Contract revenue is higher and so are the losses, which isn’t great news. The loss from operations is R415 million of which R263.7 million is from continuing operations. Clearly, this group needs to achieve a turnaround or it will cease to exist. The group is focused on restructuring the balance sheet, which means renegotiating debt terms and extending facilities to try create some headroom. The problem is that there have been delays in sales of operations and delays in resolving certain issues. The company simply doesn’t have enough margin for error for more issues to crop up. To call this R110 million market cap group a “speculative” play would be an understatement.
- Old Mutual has released a voluntary operating update for the period ended March 2022. Life insurance sales were up 19% and the value of new business was 53% higher with a 70 basis points improvement in margin. Funds under management fell by 3% though. There are strong growth numbers coming out of Africa. The really good news is that no additional provisions have been raised for Covid mortality claims, with the latest wave tracking well within provisions. The net impact (i.e. after reinsurance) on Old Mutual Insure from the KZN floods is between R100 million to R150 million.
- African Media Entertainment (AME) has released a trading statement for the year ended March 2022. Radio assets had a terrible time in the pandemic, with a huge drop-off in advertising and no live events to generate extra revenue. In this period, HEPS is expected to be between 350 cents and 390 cents, way up from 112.7 cents in the prior year. This illiquid stock is trading on a Price/Earnings multiple of around 8x based on the mid-point of the guidance.
- Hosken Consolidated Investments, the JSE-listed investment entity led by Johnny Copelyn, has released a further trading statement confirming a substantial improvement in fortunes. HEPS for the year ended March 2022 has jumped to between 1,292.5 and 1,350 cents. It was just 287.7 cents in the prior year, so the percentage jump isn’t relevant. What is relevant is that the share price closed 6.6% higher and that was before this announcement even came out, so there may be more action in the stock on Friday.
- Deneb Investments has released results for the year ended March 2022. Revenue increased by 13.3% and HEPS jumped 43% to 33 cents per share. The dividend is 29% higher at 9 cents per share. Deneb is involved in property, branded product distribution (including toys and stationery) and manufacturing businesses. The controlling shareholder of Deneb is Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI).
- eMedia Holdings, which owns e.tv, YFM and other media businesses, has released results for the year ended March 2022. The commentary managed to say “resounding bounce back” twice in the opening lines, which gives you an idea of how happy they are. Profits are much higher than in 2020 and 2021, driven by a record revenue performance and a 39% year-on-year increase in TV advertising revenue. I guess that taking a position in eMedia means you are betting against the SABC, which isn’t exactly difficult to justify. Overall, it’s great to see traditional media making a comeback after social media platforms dominated during the pandemic. The controlling shareholder of eMedia is Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI).
- Frontier Transport Holdings has released results for the year ended March 2022 and they look great – revenue is up 26.8%, HEPS is up 29.6% to 90.75 cents and a dividend of 52 cents per share has been declared. This company is best known for owning Golden Arrow Bus Services. Over 80% of shares are held by Hosken Consolidated Investments.
- ArcelorMittal has reached a speedy resolution to its wage dispute. It only took two weeks to sort out, with ArcelorMittal agreeing to a 6.5% increase in all remuneration elements, a R5,000 once-off ex-gratia payment and a backdate of the remuneration increase to 1 April 2022.
- Platinum group metals (PGM) and chrome miner Tharisa has released interim results for the six months ended March 2022. Production numbers for PGMs and chrome are higher which is important. Revenue increased by 6.5% and EBITDA fell by 10.4% as the group came under cost pressures, especially from diesel costs. This drove a 29.2% decrease in HEPS. An interim dividend of $0.03 per share has been declared. Tharisa is busy with some major investments (including a controlling interest in Karo Mining Holdings) and is focused on maximising production to try and minimise the impact of cost pressures.
- In related mining wage news, Anglo American Platinum has signed a five-year wage deal with three of the four unions. This covers 90% of unionised employees. The total labour cost-to-company will increase on average by 6.6% per annum over the period.
- Tsogo Sun Hotels and Tsogo Sun Gaming are taking a big step away from each other. After Tsogo Sun Hotels unbundled Tsogo Sun Gaming, the former was appointed to manage seventeen hotels belonging to the gaming group. Tsogo Sun Gaming wants to terminate the agreements, which Tsogo Sun Hotels agreed to for fifteen hotels in return for a payment of R398.8 million. Tsogo Sun Hotels will buy the remaining two hotels for R141.6 million. This is a net cash inflow of around R257 million for Tsogo Sun Hotels. As Hosken Consolidated Investments (yes, them again) is involved in both companies, this is a related party transaction that will require a fairness opinion. Thankfully, Tsogo Sun Hotels is in the process of changing its name to Southern Sun Limited.
- Separately, Tsogo Sun Hotels is selling a 75.55% stake in a hotel in Nigeria for $30.4 million. The rationale behind the deal is to get rid of USD-denominated debt in the group. The hotels only contributed $0.7 million in attributable headline profit in FY22.
- In the final update for the day from a Tsogo company, Tsogo Sun Gaming released financial results for the year ended March 2022. Against a Covid-infested base, income increased 57%, operating costs increased 47% (as the group started operating again) and EBITDA (the one that counts) was 80% higher. Most importantly, a headline loss of R32 million has swung into a R1.15 billion headline profit. HEPS is 110.2 cents, which puts the group on a Price/Earnings multiple of 10.9x. Debt to adjusted EBITDA is 2.89x, which is only slightly better than the covenant of 3.0x. The group doesn’t expect to have a problem meeting these covenants as the group is generating cash.
- Labat Africa has upgraded its cultivation facility in Kenton-on-Sea, known as Sweetwaters. This cannabis business has secured offtake agreements in Europe and Australia for cannabis products. The first harvest of 1.2 tons in wet weight product has yielded 100kgs in dry weight. The plan is to increase production capacity from 500kgs to 1.8 tons per year in dry weight. A EU-compliant manufacturing facility will also be set up at the site with the assistance of a German pharmaceutical company. The share price jumped 10% based on this update.
- A director of Raubex has acquired shares in the company worth R682k. Investors always see buying by directors as a positive sign.
- MiX Telematics has reported its full year IFRS results (as the group is also listed on the New York Stock Exchange and that requires US GAAP). The accounting rules can be incredibly different in certain aspects. Annual recurring revenue is up 9.1% and the group now has 815,200 subscribers. Adjusted EBITDA of R513 million represents a 24.1% margin. Free cash flow is one to watch here, as the group generated R323.9 million in net cash from operating activities and invested R409.6 million in capex, so there was negative free cash flow of R85.7 million. The CFO is moving on from the company after joining in 2019, which isn’t a long stint at all. An internal replacement has been announced. After HEPS fell from 0.44 cents to 0.24 cents, there will be a lot of work ahead.
- Back in 2012, Italtile lent an interest-free loan to the Ceramic Foundation Trust for R120.6 million. This is a typical B-BBEE deal structure. The loan should be repayable in August 2022, but only R30 million has been repaid to date. Normally, the trust would sell enough Italtile shares to cover the loan. Italtile doesn’t want this to happen or its B-BBEE score will diminish, so the loan has been extended by a further 10 years. Most of these fully leveraged B-BBEE structures don’t manage to pay the debt and end up selling shares to settle whatever is left. It’s unusual to see an extension like this but it makes sense for all concerned.
- There’s a new Chairman at Jubilee Metals and some changes at executive level, as the company puts the building blocks in place for its global development plan.
- Northam Platinum has raised R2.06 billion in new domestic medium term notes under the R15 billion debt programme. It has also extended the maturity of notes to the value of R1.17 billion by more than 2 years. When combined with previous issuances, the nominal value of notes in issue under the programme is R11.36 billion. R102 million will mature in this financial year, with the rest spread out across 2023 – 2026.
- Altron’s disposal of Altron Document Solutions was scheduled to close by 31 May 2022. As regulatory approvals are outstanding in certain jurisdictions, the deadline to fulfil all conditions precedent has been extended to 31 August 2022.
- African Equity Empowerment Investments has released a trading statement for the six months ended February 2022. The headline loss per share has deteriorated significantly from -6.64 cents in the prior period to between -13.39 and -14.71 cents in this period.
- Mahube Infrastructure expects HEPS to be between 117.85 cents and 120.02 cents for the year ended February 2022. This is a massive jump from 21.71 cents the prior year.
INVEST IN SHARES
Comments (4)
Don
26 May 2022Brilliant daily commentary!
I’ve been meaning to congratulate you for a while on your
emergence as a meaningful analyst/commentator/HONEST commentating investor(!).
And also on your easy style and manner of getting difficult stuff across for us plebs to grasp!!
Thanks
The Finance Ghost
28 May 2022Thanks so much Don – such kind words. Hope you keep enjoying it!
Protasius
27 May 2022Don, thanks for commenting – you are the first I have seen since the new format.
The number of audiences she has garner over the past two years is testament to the quality of content and the fun manner of delivering it, which makes it appealing.
Cheers the Mrs Ghost by choice.
The Finance Ghost
28 May 2022Haha I see Mrs Ghost getting all the credit here! I’ll let her know 😉