Ghost Stories #39: The only free lunch in investing (with Kingsley Williams)

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With volatility as the theme in markets in a year of elections, it’s important to keep your head as an equity investor. Take a long-term view and let the market do its job.

Easier said than done, of course.

To assist with practical tips and important insights into key principles in investing (ranging from more basic concepts through to advanced topics like cyclically-adjusted P/E ratios), Kingsley Williams (Chief Investment Officer at Satrix)* joined The Finance Ghost on this podcast.

The only free lunch in investing is diversification. This podcast will help you understand why, brought to you by Satrix.

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to another episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. This is being recorded just after the elections in South Africa, so of course that is what is on everyone’s mind. Before getting onto this podcast I had to actually stop myself laughing because of all the memes I was seeing on Twitter, now X. Got to say that of all the social media platforms, that is the place to be during something like an election. It really is just the very best content. But of course we need a serious face for this chat Kingsley, and you know, that’s a good time to point out that Kingsley Williams of Satrix is joining me on this discussion and those election headlines are exactly why we are here, right?

You wrote a piece that went into Ghost Mail earlier this month about not losing your head through all the volatility and through all the chaos in the headlines. The memes are one thing, but there’s plenty of fearmongering and lots of scariness. I mean, just today we’re seeing retailers on the JSE are down hard. The bond yields have been all over the place. The rand has been all over the place. Welcome to volatility, which is of course part of investing. So Kingsley, thank you very much for joining on this podcast and I’m very excited as always to tap into your experience.

Kingsley Williams: Thanks for having me Ghost, and looking forward to the conversation. We definitely do know how to laugh at ourselves on X and Twitter. It helps manage the chaos I guess.

The Finance Ghost: I think that’s the best thing about South Africans – we deal with so much but we are so very good at just pointing a bit of fun at things, while I think people overseas just think “how can you laugh at that?” And then we do things like laugh at people overseas. I really enjoyed Rishi announcing the UK election in the rain. I thought that was the most British thing I’ve ever seen in my life. They send him out in his suit into the pouring rain to announce an election day. Politics everywhere are just chaotic.

And maybe that’s a good place to start actually, because I think as South Africans we do fall into this trap of thinking everything here is broken, everything overseas is perfect. There was a huge emigration wave of people who went overseas in the hope of a better life. And a lot of them got it right and a lot of them, frankly, didn’t. And the more people you actually speak to and the more you travel and the more worldly you become as you get older, you realise – or at least I have, I’m interested to get your view – there’s a lot of opportunity in South Africa and there’s a lot of stuff to feel good about. There’s a lot of stuff to feel very upset about. But on the whole nowhere is perfect, right?

Kingsley Williams: 100%. I was actually very, very fortunate to have spent about 18 months overseas, both in the US, in New York and in London for just over a year, about 13 months in the UK at the start of my career. But that was early 2000s. Some say I was responsible for the .com bubble and crash because I was working in technology in New York at the time, not in financial services. Well, not on the trading floor.

The Finance Ghost: That must have been amazing.

Kingsley Williams: Well, I was working on the trading floor but on the technology side, so not actually pulling the trigger on any trades, so I had nothing to do with the global .com bubble and that bursting. Obviously South Africa was at a very different place back then. The economy was growing, there was real growth. Our market was absolutely smashing it relative to what other markets were doing. If you look at a cumulative chart going back to the early 2000s and plot that relative to the likes of S&P 500 or MSCI World, it looks nothing like what it’s looked like for the last 10-12 years post the global financial crisis where it’s all been offshore, it’s been driving markets and we’ve been rather pedestrian.

My heart wanted to actually come back to South Africa and it’s worked out very well for me personally. I think there’s a lot to be said for being home and I think when Africa gets into your blood, as much as we’ve got numerous problems here, it’s always wonderful to come back and enjoy the quality of life that we do have here, warts and all.

The Finance Ghost: I couldn’t agree more. And of course that 2000s bull market is what created a lot of the financial infrastructure we know and love today. There were loads more companies listed on the JSE. Unfortunately, the trend in that has been very much down since then. The rand, if you are one of the younger listeners to this podcast, go and look at what the rand was trading at to the dollar in the 2000s when FIFA was the unofficial president for those last few years leading up to the World Cup, it’s quite depressing, obviously. Then of course Wall Street broke the world after the tech guys broke the world a few years prior, and emerging markets have struggled since then, but especially, I think, South Africa.

Despite all of that, you have to recognise that all emerging markets are volatile things and they have the potential to do well. You just have to learn to tread a bit more carefully, but also to try and lift your head sometimes from the noise, and to recognise that often the noise creates an opportunity as opposed to something to panic about. Which was really the gist of your article that was in Ghost Mail recently, to say just be careful trying to be too clever with timing the market and the panic selling and everything else. Over time these become quite value destructive activities and unfortunately it’s a trap that people fall into all the time.

Kingsley Williams: As you’re chatting through that, I’m reminded of another quote by Eugene Fama. So I’m really going to name drop here. I was very fortunate to spend three months at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business. Now it’s called the Booth School of Business, which is where Eugene Fama is a professor and he’s a Nobel Prize winner as well, in finance. But I came across a quote of his fairly recently where he was making the point – I’m going to paraphrase, I can’t remember exactly how he phrased it – but he was making the point that if you start getting anxious about volatility in equity markets, then you probably shouldn’t have been invested in equity markets in the first place. It is the norm.

It comes with the territory of investing in risky, growth-type equity linked instruments. Volatility is part and parcel of the package. It’s the norm, it’s not the exception. It should be expected. And so one needs to think very carefully about how you structure your portfolio. Are you positioning it on the basis of perhaps a recent period where the market has only been going in one direction with unusually low volatility? Or are you looking at the full history of what markets are typically going to deliver – and they are inherently risky. You can lose capital and you should be invested for a long period of time. I think those are some of the the things, almost a bit like death and taxes, that never change when you’re investing in equity markets. That is part and parcel of the journey that you’re signing up for. And you need to be willing to be invested for a material portion of time, for the long term, in excess of five years, ideally ten years or longer.

And you need to be willing to be invested for a material portion of time, for the long term, in excess of five years, ideally ten years or longer.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Otherwise you need to be able to look at this and say, “hey, I’m a short term trader”, but that’s a completely different skill set. I think where people really hurt themselves is they go, “I’m an investor”, but then they behave like a trader. And those two things can be very, very, very dangerous. If you are trading, then recognise that that is what you are doing and it’s a completely different skill. It’s a great skill and it’s a lot of fun, but it’s not the same as investing. And I think that’s one of the main challenges. Right?

Kingsley Williams: Correct. So maybe one way of looking at it is, if you’re investing, you want to be building up an asset base, letting compounding and time in the market work its magic and ultimately build up that wealth base and asset base for some future goal, ideally retirement. But you might have other longer term goals that you’re investing for. Whereas I see trading as almost a business. It’s something that you’re making a return on every day or trying to make a return on every day. So its a very different mindset. Investing is putting money away as a nest egg for you at some later point. Trading is almost a daily business, which, as you rightly pointed out, is a very different type of endeavour.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. And you won’t often hear traders talk about position sizing, which is kind of a diversification thing. It’s like a value-at-risk. But in investing, you’ll hear people talk about diversification primarily, which is a combination of position sizing and also where your money is – just as simple as that.

In the last week or so, Bidcorp produced an update, and I thought it was really interesting because Bidcorp is one of our true global success stories. So it’s the food services giant that was basically incubated in Bidvest. They make very little of their money in South Africa. They are all over the show, which is just wonderful. And they are still doing loads of bolt-on acquisitions. And interestingly enough, they did another acquisition here in South Africa. One of the other things that they mentioned in their recent update was that South Africa is actually one of their standout emerging markets right now in terms of how it’s performing. So there’s Bidcorp sitting with this whole lens on the world. And yes, they are South African at heart. But they’ve got people everywhere in the world scouting for opportunities, clearly. And they are still happy to allocate capital to South Africa, which I think tells you something. Just because US tech has had this incredible couple of years, it doesn’t mean it’ll do that forever. And it can’t do those compound annual growth rates forever. It’s just not possible. Go and look at Apple and go look how much of their return over the past decade has been from earnings growth and how much has been from multiple expansion. The multiple expansion has a ceiling. There’s only so much that someone is willing to pay per dollar of earnings that comes out of Apple. That’s just how it is.

But they’ve got people everywhere in the world scouting for opportunities, clearly. And they are still happy to allocate capital to South Africa, which I think tells you something. Just because US tech has had this incredible couple of years, it doesn’t mean it’ll do that forever.

I’m definitely not saying that Apple is going to necessarily be a disappointment or anything like that. I have a bunch of US stocks in my portfolio. But you’ve got to be super careful about extrapolating the age of the smartphone forever and also extrapolating that South Africa is going to underperform forever. If a business like Bidcorp can see the value in doing another acquisition here and building a global base, would you agree that that’s probably the way people should also think about their equity portfolio, as it really helps to actually be diversified and to have both local and global exposure, rather than assuming that something will always be good or always be bad?

Kingsley Williams: You were touching on multiples, which I think is a very important point to unpack. There’s some research done by Schiller. I stand to be corrected, he may have also won a Nobel Prize in finance, but he came up with this concept called the cyclically adjusted PE ratio, abbreviated as the CAPE. And basically it’s a ten year average price earnings ratio. The research that he did confirmed that there’s a very high correlation between what that long-term PE ratio, average PE ratio is over time versus the subsequent ten year returns. So to your point, the US is trading at all-time high PE ratios, which gives us an indication that future returns over the next ten years are likely to be depressed. Because where is that growth going to come from to sustain such a high PE ratio?

So yes, we take the point. The US is one of the most innovative countries and very market friendly. And so it probably has the greatest potential to unlock future earnings and future growth. But growth is not infinite. There’s fundamental underpins to unlocking growth and that can’t continue indefinitely. And given where the US market is trading now from a PE ratio perspective and a valuation perspective relative to the history of the US itself, which has always been an innovative market that has been at the forefront of driving economic growth, it’s very unlikely that it’s going to deliver outsized returns over the next ten years relative to very depressed markets such as South Africa, which is trading at very low PE ratios, which again by our own history provides a good indication that there should be outsized returns going forward.

Given that our market is pretty much priced for – I don’t know if the right term is to say “perfection” – to deliver those outsized returns because it is so depressed at the moment in terms of the valuations that our local market is commanding. I do think there’s a lot of opportunity in South Africa. But again, you wouldn’t want to have all your long-term investments pinned on one economy, particularly the South African economy, being so small relative to the global opportunity set that is available.

Just as you were also talking about, Bidcorp and where they’re finding opportunities, I watched an interview with Sean Summers and Alec Hogg a while ago, after he’d recently taken the helm at Pick ‘n Pay. They’re obviously going through some of their own challenges in restructuring that business and positioning it to gain its historical place that it used to have within the retail landscape in South Africa. And he was just making the point about where to live and considering emigrating and being based in a developed market. And he made the point that it’s a lot easier to make -what’s the current exchange rate? 24 rand to a pound, give or take – it’s a lot easier to make 24 rand net profit here in South Africa than it is to make a pound net profit in the UK. So yeah, I think there is a lot of opportunity. The market is not as competitive here as you would find in developed markets, and that creates the opportunity for businesses to solve problems, to meet customers needs, which is essentially what business is all about. It’s solving a need and earning a return for doing so and for taking that risk. So there definitely is a lot of opportunity in South Africa and good growth prospects given the valuations that our market’s commanding at the moment.

The Finance Ghost: And this is where ETFs are interesting tools, to plug those gaps and to give you the broad exposure where you specifically want single stock exposure. You can then take that on top of your underlying ETF building blocks – that’s certainly the way I use ETFs, as building blocks for a portfolio. It’s that beautiful equity exposure with one click across a whole bunch of things. And then where you want to take single stock positions, which obviously is a particular passion point of mine, but takes a lot of time and effort, as opposed to just building out that equity exposure over time, there’s loads of ways to diversify within the ETFs as well.

…that’s certainly the way I use ETFs, as building blocks for a portfolio. It’s that beautiful equity exposure with one click across a whole bunch of things.

It’s important to do that over time because I think when things then happen, like scary headlines or elections in a particular country or whatever, you’re not sitting with absolutely every cent you’ve ever made in South African retailers, which are down 5% today or whatever the case is. And then you panic and you go, “geez, this is going to zero, I’m going to sell everything”, take a 5% bath and then a week later it’s back and you go, “oh, this is so frustrating”. I mean, the one I’m kicking myself on so much is Bytes Technology. I didn’t sell after their whole disaster with their ex-CEO and all those undisclosed trades. But I should absolutely have bought more. I don’t know why I didn’t. It was so obvious. The share price panicked because the CEO made some bad trades. I mean, he’s not the business. He will leave and someone else will come in anyway. Hindsight is perfect, but rather the hindsight is, “‘oh, I wish I’d taken advantage of that and made money”, as opposed to, “oh my gosh, I sold everything and panicked and now here I am sitting in cash and I’ve given up 20% returns and incurred transaction fees and tax and everything else”, right?

Kingsley Williams: I think this talks exactly to Buffett’s quote around being contrarian. So I think we should unpack his quote in more detail because his quote is often used as the raison d’etre or a call to be active and to be contrarian. He was actually making the point that you’re probably going to be best served by holding the broad market almost on a passive basis.

I never like referring to any investing as passive. It all requires active decisions. But just owning the market, as our payoff line says, just owning the broad market and let the market do its work. If you really, really still want to be active, well then be contrarian. Buy when everyone else is selling. Like when Sasol had been decimated down to – I can’t remember what its low was, I think it was like 20-something rand at a point – that’s the time to be buying, right? That’s the time to be piling it.

The Finance Ghost: That’s one that I bought.

Kingsley Williams: Okay, well done.

The Finance Ghost: That one I got.

Kingsley Williams: If you’re going to be contrarian, if you’re going to be active, then be contrarian. And this is really the underpin of value investing.

It’s buying the unloved stocks, it’s buying the unloved markets like South Africa, because that’s where the rerating potential in stocks or in broad indices can occur. You just need a little bit of confidence to creep back in for there to be risk on globally, which could happen when interest rates start getting cut, potentially for some positive policies to be implemented locally that are market friendly, for that confidence to start creeping in. And then it’s not that companies need to be earning any more or making any more profits, just that multiple, that PE ratio can kick up and that can unlock enormous returns going forward.

I think letting the market do its job has a huge role to play, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t opportunities from being contrarian. The other thing I also wanted to just mention around single stocks is we were chatting to a client, and I hope you won’t mind me repeating the story. I won’t mention his name, but he was looking at wanting to get rand play exposure. So buying the SA Inc.-type stocks into his portfolio, which he did do.

But the problem with single stocks, or only a handful of single stocks, is that your fortunes are very much tied to idiosyncratic factors associated with those specific companies. So if you’re looking at getting a broad style or theme expressed in your portfolio – that, yeah, I want to own SA Inc.-type stocks because I think the rand is going to strengthen, for example – if you only have a very concentrated portfolio expressing that theme, that theme may indeed play out, but you can be completely derailed with idiosyncratic events and drivers affecting those specific companies that have nothing to do with that broad theme. Again, this talks to why you want to have a broad portfolio, which an ETF or an index fund offers you to capture that type of theme. So that even if there is idiosyncratic noise or some stock-specific anomaly that occurs, that isn’t your entire portfolio or your entire trade that’s being carried out by that. You’re expressing that view with a broad portfolio.

The Finance Ghost: I can give you another perfect example of that: gold miners. You could have had this view to say, “oh, gold is going up”, and then you went and picked one gold miner and then that gold miner has some major weather event or some operational disaster. And then you watch gold tick up exactly like you thought it was going to and you watch all the other miners tick up beautifully, normally in excess of the gold price because of operating leverage and everything else, you can get a leveraged-up exposure to what happens there. Meanwhile you are languishing because you were unlucky and you picked the wrong one. It really does depend why you’re investing. If you are trying to get a theme, then doing it through one company is not necessarily the right way to go. If you’re trying to get to a specific company’s story, often something like where it’s trading in terms of average multiple, that should absolutely be part of your investment decision. And unfortunately that data is not easy to get. I subscribe to TIKR, so that’s one of the better ways to get a Bloomberg-light or a Capital IQ-light for a retail investor. It still costs money, but at least I can go and do stuff like pull average valuations over time. Without that knowledge, you go and look at a point estimate. Okay, it’s on a PE of eight. Oh great. What does that mean? Has it historically been on a PE of six? Has it historically been on PE of ten? Where are you versus the average? What is the likely mean reversion on this multiple? And what does that mean for you? Because you can have a situation where earnings growth is really strong, but if the multiple was too high and it unwinds down to its average, you’re going to get a pretty dire return anyway.

The other mistake that people make is they look at the dividend yield and they think, “wow, there’s this great juicy dividend yield. This thing’s going to pay me 8% a year just for being there, let alone the capital growth”. But then they don’t think about the capital growth. So British American Tobacco, exhibit A, something I’m relatively bearish on because yes, it pays a good divvy, but what is happening to their customer base? I mean, we know what’s happening to their customer base, right? There’s every chance that the share price performs poorly over time. Yes, they pay you dividends along the way. What does your total return look like? And where else could you have gotten a better total return than that for taking single stock risk? Because the other thing which talks to your point about the risks is if the index will pay you 10% but a single stock is paying you 10%, you’re not winning by owning the single stock. It’s not even a draw. You’ve actually lost because on a risk adjusted basis, you’ve done worse. Single stocks need to offer you materially more than the index, right?

Kingsley Williams: The other big risk, just talking about dividends, but I guess any metric that you look at based on reported financial statements, is that they’re backwards looking. So it’s not to say that there isn’t a premium by looking at that data. I mean, we harvest valuation premiums, momentum premiums, quality premiums that are available in the market by looking at reported information on these companies. But the important thing is that it needs to be a broadly diversified portfolio because of the risk in individual companies. It might look like a great value stock, but it could be a value trap. Similarly, it might be a great dividend payer, but if you’re looking at what the historical dividend yield is, there’s absolutely no guarantee that that company will declare a similar dividend at the next payout period, particularly if their earnings are under pressure, they’re going to start cutting that.

Similarly, it might be a great dividend payer, but if you’re looking at what the historical dividend yield is, there’s absolutely no guarantee that that company will declare a similar dividend at the next payout period, particularly if their earnings are under pressure, they’re going to start cutting that.

You’re looking at something that looks fantastic in terms of where the market’s pricing that stock now and what the yield is going to be. But there’s no guarantee that that yield is going to be paid in the next dividend round. So, again, very important to diversify, diversify, diversify. It’s the only free lunch you get in investing, because we just cannot predict these once-off idiosyncratic-type risks. There could be a mining disaster, or some dam bursts its banks and takes out whatever. These things are not predictable. That’s exactly why you want to diversify your investments in your portfolio, to hedge yourself against those risks and then let the market do its work in terms of how you’re structuring your portfolio, where you’re capturing themes or styles in a broadly diversified way.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. I love all of that. While we’re having fun here, I think I’d like to finish off this podcast by talking about some of your advice for the listeners around managing their behavioral bias to panic. You read a tough headline and you think, “oh, my goodness, this is it. Let me get my money out while I can”. What sort of advice have you got for the listeners on just keeping their heads in difficult situations in specifically, equity markets, although fixed income can dish that up, too. But generally, institutions are dealing with fixed income volatility because of the nature of investing in bonds. Having said that, we’ve done some great shows with Siya on bond ETFs at Satrix, so you can get involved in that, too. And it’s a very interesting thing to look at. It’s not just equity volatility, actually, it’s any investment volatility. What would your advice be to help people avoid panicking?

Kingsley Williams: I think it starts with having a plan at the outset, like knowing why you’re investing, knowing how long you’re investing for, to achieve that particular goal. Now, once you know those things, you can then start structuring your portfolio in an appropriate way in relation to that term. If you’re saving for your retirement in 20 years time, for example, to my earlier point and the point that Eugene Fama made, volatility will come with that territory if you’re exposed to risky assets, and if you’re worried about that volatility, well, then you shouldn’t have been in risky assets in the first place. It is part and parcel of what investing in risky assets comes with. So I think that’s the first point. Have a plan and know what your term is for investing. Your pension fund and your RAs and all of those types of things which are really only designed for access once you retire – those you shouldn’t be worried about. Decide what your investment strategy is going to be and then let the market take its course.

Obviously, if your circumstances change or you come up with a different approach to the way you want to achieve your investment goals, well, then by all means reflect that in your portfolio. But hopefully your plans are reasonably future-proof and are not hinging on current news. It’s more long-term in nature. Just some practical things: resist the urge to act. The analogy we use is, or that I often like to refer to is changing lanes in traffic, trying to get an edge. Yeah, you might get there a bit quicker, but you’re definitely going to use a lot more fuel. You’re probably going to be a lot more stressed by the time you get to your destination, and then it’s not a guarantee that you’re going to get there much quicker. You do see people weaving out and in fact, you may not get there at all because you might end up causing an accident. So just resist the urge to act. Stick to your long-term plan. Very important: don’t chase past winners because you actually want to be buying the ones that are in distress. That’s what unlocks the outsized returns, not necessarily chasing the past winners. If you are going to chase past winners, like in a momentum type strategy, you have to be very disciplined at constantly doing that and churning your portfolio. I mean, we do run a momentum strategy in both ETF and unit trust form. We employ momentum as a style within our multi-factor portfolios, so it can be harnessed, but it requires a lot of discipline and rigor.

And again, managing risk, very important because what’s the saying that Nico always uses? Momentum’s your friend until the bend at the end. So watch out for that bend, watch out for that market event that you can’t predict that is going to carry you out on a momentum-type strategy. And then the other thing is not being too defensive. If you’ve got time on your side, use that time to your advantage. Use the power of equity markets, which over the long term are your best option for delivering inflation-beating returns or the highest inflation-beating returns. If you’re worried about volatility, but you’ve got 20, 10, 20 years of time to invest for being too conservative is actually your biggest risk. It’s a bit of a oxymoron. You’re trying to manage risk, but your biggest risk is being too conservative because you’ve got time on your side and the longer you give your investments, the less risky they become.

The Finance Ghost: That’s your driving analogy, that would be leaving your car in the garage and just never going anywhere because you don’t have to think about the lanes. I agree, that’s not a great outcome either. And the last thing I’ll leave people with is that distinguishing between saving and investing helps you so much with managing the volatility. You can’t save into equities. That is not saving, that is investing. Saving is what you do in your call account with your bank, so that when something breaks in your house or you need to upgrade your car or you need to pay school fees or whatever it is you want to do, go overseas, that comes out of your savings account. Investing is what you do with the rest of your money. So I hate the term tax-free savings account – it kills me. It should be tax-free investing account. It drives completely the wrong behaviour to call it a TFSA, but unfortunately that’s the route government took with it. That’s the thing to understand is the money that goes into the equity market is money that you are going to pull down on in a long time from now. It’s not savings. And I think if you do that, you manage so much of the volatility.

Kingsley Williams: Maybe just one other point that we didn’t really get to touch on Ghost, was just how structuring your portfolio, which to my earlier point was coming up with a plan, to the extent that that is well-diversified, it will smooth out that volatility because you’re not going to be exposed to one driver or one style or one theme, which may or may not do well. You’re going to be exposed to different asset classes, different themes, different styles, which all pay off at different times. And to the extent that they’re lowly or negatively correlated with each other helps to smooth that overall portfolio experience. That helps manage the investor behaviour, because now, whenever you do happen to look at your portfolio, you’re not seeing it having lost whatever crazy percent of value, because by its design, it is well diversified. So when global equities or US tech is shooting the lights out, that’s counteracting the fact that bonds may have caused a drag. But similarly, if US tech goes through a wobble, that’s hopefully going to be counteracted by having bonds in your portfolio. So again, designing a well-diversified portfolio helps to actually manage those behavioral biases so that you’re less inclined to want to act because it’s giving you a far more smoothed return profile.

The Finance Ghost: Kingsley, thank you so much for your time on this podcast. I’ve really enjoyed it. I think tons of great insights shared here, so thank you for that. And to our listeners, we’re going to start releasing these podcasts with full transcripts because I think there’s a strong proportion of people who want to read the content now as well as listen to it, or instead of listen to it if they’re struggling to find the time. So keep an eye out for transcripts going forward. But just for future notice, there will be transcripts and Kingsley, thank you for these insights. It’s been really great to have you back on the show. All the best in the markets, and I’ve no doubt we’ll do this again. And if people do want to reach out to you, you are on LinkedIn from memory.

Kingsley Williams: That’s correct, and thanks very much for having me. Been great to engage with you and speak to your fan base, your listeners.

The Finance Ghost: And for final comment, Robert Schiller won the 2013 Nobel Prize for economics at the same time as Eugene Fama and a gentleman called Lars Peter Hansen, who sounds like a rally driver, but he’s clearly a bit more interesting than that and does some economic stuff as well. So Kingsley, thank you so much for your time. We will do this again.

*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management.

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